Tag: New Mexico

  • Storm Updates: Ohio Valley Marginal, Arizona–New Mexico Flood Moderate — Wednesday, September 16, 2026 (Morning)

    This is a live Wednesday morning snapshot of U.S. local-storm activity as of early Wednesday, September 16, 2026. Overnight convection across the south-central Plains into the Midwest produced wind and hail. The Storm Prediction Center 1300 UTC Day 1 outlook holds a Marginal Risk of isolated strong to severe thunderstorms across parts of the Midwest/Ohio Valley and Utah into far northwest Colorado. No convective watches are valid. The Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook holds a Moderate Risk over portions of southern and central Arizona and the Sacramento Mountains of New Mexico. There is no named tropical cyclone threatening U.S. land.

    These are county- and ZIP-scale thunderstorms and flash-flood pulses, not a mainland hurricane landfall. Restoration exposure this morning is leftover wind and hail from last night plus water on the Missouri River system and a new monsoon-style flood ticket in Arizona and New Mexico this afternoon. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

    What is live this morning

    SPC issued the 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook at 0745 AM CDT. Valid 161300Z–171200Z. Headline: isolated strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible today across parts of the Midwest/Ohio Valley and Utah/far northwest Colorado. Risk-area population centers listed by SPC include Columbus, Pittsburgh, Akron, Salt Lake City, and Dayton. Categorical risk is Marginal only. No Slight Risk. No tornado probabilities in the 1300 UTC package.

    Current convective watches: none. Most recently issued watch was Severe Thunderstorm Watch 669, already expired. That is the overnight close. Do not treat 669 as a live product.

    WPC Day 1 excessive-rainfall language for the period beginning 12Z Wednesday has shifted the organized water story west. The Moderate Risk that covered northeastern Kansas into northwest Missouri on Tuesday is now the just-hit and river-flood desk. Today’s Moderate Risk is over southern and central Arizona and the Sacramento Mountains of New Mexico, with a high-end Slight Risk across much of Arizona into southern Utah and southwestern Colorado. Isolated flash-flood prospects remain possible later today across parts of Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio if cells train on the residual front.

    Hotspot 1 — Indiana into Ohio and the upper Ohio Valley

    A convectively augmented mid-level vorticity maximum over Illinois and northwest Indiana is forecast to track east across the Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes. Mid-level westerlies stay modest, generally 20–30 kt. SPC expects additional convective development this afternoon across parts of Indiana into Ohio as a moist low-level airmass destabilizes. Poor lapse rates aloft should limit updraft strength. Locally damaging winds are the hazard if loosely organized clusters form and spread east through early evening, then weaken with loss of heating.

    Overnight LSRs already put trees and lines down in Kosciusko and Noble counties in Indiana, plus a measured 65 mph gust near Wallen in Allen County. Northern Indiana and Wilmington, Ohio, offices issued overnight flash-flood warnings for heavy rain of 1.5 to 3 inches in parts of Grant, Blackford, Adams, Wells, and Mercer counties. Those products expired this morning. The water is still on the ground.

    Restoration read: wind first this afternoon if clusters organize. Water first in the counties that already took 2–3 inches before dawn. Stage tarps and tree crews in the Indianapolis–Fort Wayne–Dayton–Columbus belt before late afternoon, not after the first warning.

    Hotspot 2 — Southern and central Arizona, Sacramento Mountains of New Mexico

    This is today’s organized flood ticket. WPC upgraded Day 1 excessive rainfall to Moderate Risk over portions of southern and central Arizona and the Sacramento Mountains. Guidance continues to print 2–3 inches, locally higher, where storms focus on the Mogollon Rim, south-central Arizona including the Phoenix metro and surrounds, southern Utah slot-canyon country, the San Juans of Colorado, and the Sacramentos. Rates above 1 inch per hour for multiple hours are in the discussion. Burn-scar debris flow remains the life-safety language on higher terrain.

    SPC did not hang severe probabilities over Arizona and New Mexico on the 1300 UTC outlook. Modest lapse rates, cloud cover, and only marginal deep-layer shear keep the severe-wind/hail threat limited. Gusty outflow is still possible. Water is the story.

    Restoration read: extraction and drying on a 24–48 hour mold clock if cells stall over the same ZIP. Photograph interiors only when it is safe. Do not drive flooded washes.

    Hotspot 3 — Utah into far northwest Colorado, plus leftover Kansas–Missouri water

    On the southeast periphery of a closed upper low over northern California, 35–45 kt of southwesterly mid-level flow persists across the Great Basin. Ongoing storms over eastern Utah and northwest Colorado are in a strongly sheared but weakly unstable environment. SPC leaves room for isolated severe hail or gusts if cells or small clusters can form with filtered afternoon heating. Limited heating should keep the overall severe risk marginal. Grand Junction issued an overnight flash-flood warning for the Lee Burn Scar in central Rio Blanco County; that product expired before dawn.

    Kansas and northwest Missouri are no longer the new Moderate Risk. They are the just-hit desk. Overnight LSRs include 2.00-inch hail at Edgerton, Kansas; 1.75-inch hail west of Cairo, Missouri; trees, wires, and power poles in Richmond, Ray County; wires down around Greenwood, Pleasant Hill, Lake Winnebago, and west of Raytown; and a small building damaged north of Clifton Hill. Kansas City/Pleasant Hill has flood warnings on the Grand River near Chillicothe, Sumner, and Brunswick with crests later this week. That is channel water from Tuesday night, not a new watch.

    Just hit

    SPC preliminary storm reports for the 15/1200Z–16/1159Z window show no tornadoes. Hail clustered from the Texas South Plains through the Kansas City metro into Peoria County, Illinois (1.50 inches near Alta). Wind included 75 mph at McConnell Air Force Base in Sedgwick County, Kansas, with wall panels ripped at a plant nearby; 71 mph at Alva, Oklahoma, and railroad cars overturned east of Avard; 70 mph near Morton, Texas; an RV flipped west of Smyer, Texas; 67 mph at Junction, Utah; trees and lines in Congerville and Brimfield, Illinois; power lines down near Humble City and Eunice, New Mexico.

    Tuesday afternoon’s Storm Tracker already covered the Kansas–Missouri Moderate flood risk while it was live. This morning’s desk treats that corridor as aftermath plus river-flood follow-through.

    Pulse table

    RegionMain threatsSPC / NWS / WPC levelStatus this morning
    IN / OH / upper Ohio ValleyIsolated damaging wind, leftover flash floodSPC Marginal; overnight FFWs expiredAfternoon clusters possible
    Southern/central AZ, Sacramento Mtns NMFlash flood, debris flow on burn scarsWPC Moderate excessive rainfallToday’s organized water ticket
    Eastern UT / NW COIsolated hail/gusts, burn-scar runoffSPC MarginalAfternoon cells possible
    NE KS / NW MO / Grand RiverRiver flooding, wind/hail damageFlood warnings; LSRs overnightJust-hit / in channel
    TX South Plains / NW OK / south-central KSMeasured severe gusts, isolated hailLSRs overnight; no watch nowAftermath
    Atlantic / Gulf vs. U.S. mainlandNo named cycloneNHC: no tropical cyclonesQuiet on the mainland coast

    What this means for restoration teams

    Wind at 60–75 mph is roof, siding, gutter, and tree-on-structure work. Two-inch hail is a roof-survey ticket in Johnson County, Kansas, and neighboring ZIPs. Flash flooding on the Arizona–New Mexico Moderate Risk is wet drywall and a same-night extraction clock if water is inside. Grand River crests later this week are a separate staffing problem from today’s monsoon cells. Do not send one crew to both stories without checking which county has a warning now.

    For teams near the Ohio Valley Marginal: stage before mid-afternoon local. Property owners should photograph damage in daylight if it is safe, call the carrier, and start extraction the same night if water is inside.

    What this is not

    This is not a Slight Risk day, not a live watch, and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. NHC reports no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, eastern Pacific, or central Pacific as of this morning. A trough several hundred miles east of Bermuda has only a low chance of development and is not a land threat today. The work, if it verifies, will be scattered: a wind swath through an Indiana or Ohio county, a flooded wash in Arizona or New Mexico, leftover river water in north-central Missouri.

    Looking ahead

    SPC Day 2 (Thursday) currently carries no severe thunderstorm areas. WPC Day 2 holds Slight Risks of excessive rainfall for portions of the north-central Plains, Upper Midwest, and southwestern U.S. The next Storm Tracker update should re-check the 1630 UTC Day 1 outlook and any new watches rather than assuming this morning’s Marginal stays the last word.

    Sources and how to verify

    Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center Sep 16, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook (Gleason/Mead); current convective watches (none valid; last issued Watch 669); SPC preliminary storm reports for 20260915 1200 UTC–20260916 1159 UTC; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook and discussion; National Weather Service warning text including Wilmington OH, Northern Indiana, Grand Junction, Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Quad Cities, and Lubbock; National Hurricane Center 800 AM EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, September 16, 2026.

    Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watch, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay. Prior desk: Tuesday, September 15 afternoon Storm Updates.

    Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

  • Storm Updates: Eastern Nebraska–Iowa Slight Risk, Iowa Flood Moderate — Monday, September 14, 2026 (Morning)

    This is a live Monday morning snapshot of local storm-type events across the United States as of Monday, September 14, 2026. Overnight the organized wind corridor that ran the upper Ohio Valley into New York is down. No Storm Prediction Center watches are currently valid. The Day 1 Convective Outlook issued 0746 AM CDT holds a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of eastern Nebraska into western and central Iowa this afternoon and evening. Large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes all appear possible. The Weather Prediction Center overlays a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall on central and southwestern Iowa, with a broader Slight Risk from eastern Nebraska through the Midwest and a separate Slight Risk over the Southwest monsoon corridor.

    These are county- and ZIP-scale thunderstorms and flash-flood pulses, not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. Restoration exposure today is wind and hail on the Nebraska–Iowa Slight, interior water where Iowa cells train south of I-80 tonight, and leftover tree-and-roof work from Sunday evening in Ohio, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and New York. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

    What is live this morning

    SPC lists no current convective watches. The most recently issued watch was number 667 earlier in the week; Sunday’s Ohio Valley–Northeast slight-risk corridor produced local severe thunderstorm warnings and wind damage but did not carry an overnight watch into Monday morning.

    The 1300 UTC Day 1 outlook (valid 1300Z Monday through 1200Z Tuesday) draws the Slight Risk from roughly Grand Island and Hastings east-northeast through Omaha and Lincoln into western and central Iowa, including the Des Moines metro on the eastern edge. A Marginal Risk wraps a wider ring from the Dakotas and Minnesota south through Kansas. Elevated convection is already ongoing this morning across the central Plains and mid Missouri Valley on a strong low-level jet. SPC expects that band to stay mostly sub-severe and weaken late morning, then a new surface-based corridor to fire along or just ahead of a cold front across eastern Nebraska by late afternoon.

    WPC’s Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, updated 0733 UTC, is the louder product this morning: Moderate Risk over portions of central and southwestern Iowa, with locally 3 to 6 inches possible south of I-80 toward Des Moines and points southwest. A broad Slight Risk still covers much of the Midwest from eastern Nebraska through southern Minnesota and the Door Peninsula, plus a separate Slight over eastern Arizona, New Mexico, and southwestern Colorado.

    Hotspot 1 — Eastern Nebraska into western and central Iowa

    This is today’s organized severe desk. A mid-level shortwave and 50–70-plus kt mid-level jet move east-northeast across the northern Plains. Rich low-level moisture is forecast to stream north into eastern Nebraska and western Iowa after morning convection clears. SPC allows a narrow corridor of 2,000–3,000+ J/kg MLCAPE if surface temperatures reach the low to mid 80s by late afternoon. Initial storms should be supercellular enough for large hail. Mode is expected to transition quickly to clusters and line segments. A 40–50 kt nocturnal low-level jet supports ample storm-relative helicity this evening; a sustained surface-based supercell would conditionally be capable of a strong tornado. That is the official language, not a guarantee that one occurs.

    Cities and counties to watch: Lincoln, Omaha, Council Bluffs, Sioux City, Des Moines, Ames, and the I-80 belt from Grand Island through western Iowa. Watch issuance, if it comes, is an afternoon product — not a morning one.

    Restoration read: hail and wind first on the Nebraska side; water second once the same storms cluster over Iowa after dark. Stage tarps and generators before 4 p.m. local. If a warning includes both wind and heavy rain, treat the ZIP as a dual ticket by morning.

    Hotspot 2 — Central and southwestern Iowa flood overlay

    WPC introduced a small Moderate Risk for D1 in coordination with the Des Moines office. HREF blended mean QPF runs 3–5 inches over the area encompassing Des Moines and points south and southwest. Neighborhood probabilities for more than 3 inches are 60–80 percent in that pocket, with 25–30 percent for more than 5 inches. Three-hour flash-flood guidance exceedance sits 50–70 percent. The main concerns are urban footprints and low-water crossings south of I-80. Heavy rain is expected to linger into early Tuesday morning.

    A broader Slight still covers eastern Nebraska into southern Minnesota. Isolated flash-flood concerns this morning ride the progressive elevated band; the more appreciable footprint is the evening and overnight wave.

    Restoration read: this is tonight’s water ticket. Extraction and drying clocks start the same night water is inside. Do not wait for a river flood warning if streets and finished basements are already taking the 1-inch-per-hour cores.

    Hotspot 3 — Sunday just-hit and Southwest scatter

    Overnight LSRs from the 1200 UTC Sunday–Monday window show the Ohio Valley–Northeast slight-risk corridor verified as wind, not tornadoes. Preliminary reports include a roof ripped off a home and multiple trees down in Fox Township, Carroll County, Ohio; trees and wires across Lawrence, Butler, Crawford, McKean, and Clearfield counties in Pennsylvania; trees on structures and roads in Washington County, Ohio, and Wood County, West Virginia; and additional tree and wire damage in Onondaga, Oneida, Franklin, Fulton, and Saratoga counties in New York. Isolated 1.00-inch hail fell near Monarch and Raynesford, Montana, and 2 south of Sterling, Nebraska, after midnight. A 61 mph gust was measured near Patagonia, Arizona.

    Today the Southwest stays a flood-and-outflow desk. WPC keeps a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over eastern Arizona, much of New Mexico, and southwestern Colorado on monsoon-style cells, burn scars, and slot canyons. SPC does not carry 5 percent severe probabilities there, but isolated strong gusts and small to near-severe hail are possible where heating is strongest. Eastern North Carolina sits under a cold front with only a low-end isolated wind/hail mention.

    Just hit

    Sunday’s upper Ohio Valley–central New York Slight Risk is yesterday’s ticket: trees, wires, and isolated roof work from eastern Ohio through northwest Pennsylvania into central New York. Watch 667 from Saturday is long expired. There is no named tropical cyclone threatening U.S. land this morning. National Hurricane Center discussion shows no Atlantic tropical cyclones; Tropical Storm Norbert and a weakening eastern Pacific depression are well offshore and not a mainland or Hawaii landfall problem today.

    Pulse table

    RegionMain threatsSPC / NWS / WPC levelStatus this morning
    Eastern NE / western–central IALarge hail, damaging wind, few tornadoes possibleSPC Slight (1300Z)Afternoon–evening; no watch yet
    SW / central Iowa south of I-80Flash flood, 3–6″ local totalsWPC Moderate excessive rainfallEvening into Tuesday morning
    OH / PA / WV / NY from SundayTrees, wires, isolated roof damageLSRs; watches expiredAftermath
    Eastern CO / western–northern KSIsolated severe gusts, high-based cellsSPC MarginalAfternoon scatter
    AZ / NM / SW COFlash flood, strong outflowWPC SlightAfternoon–evening cells
    Atlantic / Gulf vs. U.S. mainlandNo landfalling tropical cycloneNHC quiet on the mainlandQuiet

    What this means for restoration teams

    Eastern Nebraska this evening is hail and wind: roofs, siding, screens, and vehicles. Western and central Iowa is the dual ticket — the same storms that throw hail west of the Missouri River can train 3-plus inches of rain over Des Moines and counties southwest of I-80 after dark. A brief tornado, if one occurs, is a narrow swath. Staff it as a local damage survey, not a regional outbreak.

    Sunday’s Ohio–Pennsylvania–New York wind is already on the books: tree-on-structure, service drops, and isolated roof peel. Photograph remaining damage in daylight if it is safe, then move crews toward the Nebraska–Iowa corridor rather than chasing last night’s counties unless a specific claim is already open.

    What this is not

    This is not a regional derecho and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. The work today, if it verifies, will be scattered: a hail swath through an eastern Nebraska county, a flooded intersection south of I-80 in Iowa, leftover trees in Ohio or New York. That is the local-storm pattern this desk should staff.

    Looking ahead

    SPC Day 2 is a Marginal Risk as the same trough lifts toward the Upper Great Lakes. Day 3 currently carries no severe area. WPC language keeps heavy rain lingering into early Tuesday over the same Iowa footprint. Watch the afternoon Storm Tracker rather than assuming the 1300Z Slight is the last line of the day — a watch can still go up if the warm sector destabilizes as drawn.

    Sources and how to verify

    Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook for Monday, September 14, 2026 (Gleason/Lyons); SPC current watch page (no watches valid as of 1010 UTC); SPC preliminary local storm reports for the 13/1200Z–14/1159Z window; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook updated 0733 UTC; National Hurricane Center Atlantic and East Pacific discussions this morning.

    Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watches, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay. Prior desk: Sunday afternoon, September 13 storm updates.

    Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

  • Storm Updates: Southern Plains to Mid-Atlantic Marginal Risk, Kansas–Missouri Flood Pulse — Thursday, September 10, 2026 (Morning)

    This is a live Thursday morning snapshot of local storm-type events across the United States as of the early hours of Thursday, September 10, 2026. Overnight the organized severe pulse from Wednesday’s Slight Risk and Severe Thunderstorm Watch 665 across northern Ohio, northwest Pennsylvania, and western New York has largely expired. The Storm Prediction Center’s Day 1 outlook has settled into a broad Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms stretching from the southern High Plains to the southern Mid-Atlantic coast. The primary threat language is sporadic damaging wind gusts this afternoon and evening, with isolated large hail possible over south-central Colorado into northeast New Mexico and the Oklahoma–Texas Panhandles.

    These remain county- and ZIP-scale thunderstorms. No named tropical cyclone currently threatens U.S. land. Restoration exposure today is residual wind and tree work from last night’s Ohio–Pennsylvania corridor, plus fresh flood and wind potential where the cold front and residual moisture continue to fire cells from the southern Plains eastward. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

    What is live this morning

    No convective watches are currently valid. Watch 665, the last active severe thunderstorm watch covering the Upper Ohio Valley and Lake Erie counties, has expired. SPC’s 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook places a Marginal Risk across a long corridor from the southern High Plains through the lower Mississippi Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic. Strong daytime heating is expected south of residual cloud and overnight storms, with temperatures into the 90s to near 100°F over the southern Plains and upper 80s to mid-90s farther east. That buoyancy, coupled with the residual cold front and outflow boundaries, supports thunderstorms that can produce isolated severe gusts.

    The Weather Prediction Center’s updated Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (valid 12Z Thursday–12Z Friday) carries a Slight Risk of rainfall exceeding flash-flood guidance over a focused area from roughly southeast Ohio into central Kentucky and adjacent portions of West Virginia and Indiana. Broader Marginal Risk areas cover parts of the southern Plains, the lower Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic, the Southwest monsoon corridor, and a pocket in the Gulf coastal states.

    Hotspot 1 — Residual Ohio–Pennsylvania–western New York wind corridor

    Wednesday evening’s Slight Risk and Watch 665 produced a series of severe thunderstorm warnings and local storm reports of tree and power-line damage across northern and central Ohio, northwest Pennsylvania, and adjacent counties. Preliminary LSRs include tree and utility damage near Huron and Hartville, Ohio; Edinboro, Pennsylvania; and Chester, West Virginia, among others. The organized severe threat has moved on, but the restoration desk for those counties is still active: downed trees, service drops, and isolated roof or siding work from 50–70 mph gusts.

    Cities and counties still in the aftermath window: Cleveland, Akron, Canton, Mansfield, and surrounding northern Ohio counties; Erie, Crawford, and northwest Pennsylvania; the northern West Virginia panhandle. Stage remaining tree and tarp crews for daylight surveys and carrier documentation.

    Hotspot 2 — Southeast Kansas into south-central Missouri flood pulse

    Overnight and early this morning, training storms along and south of the cold front have produced locally heavy rainfall across southeast Kansas into portions of western and central Missouri. National Weather Service offices have issued Flood Warnings and Advisories for Allen, Labette, and Montgomery Counties in Kansas (into midday) and adjacent Missouri counties. Radar-estimated amounts of 1–4 inches, with rates of 1–3 inches per hour in stronger cores, have already produced flooding of low-lying roads, creeks, and poor-drainage areas. WPC’s Slight Risk of excessive rainfall for the day is focused farther east into the Ohio Valley, but the Kansas–Missouri corridor remains the live water desk this morning.

    Restoration read: extraction and drying work where water entered structures overnight. Photograph damage in daylight, document water lines, and treat any interior water as a same-day priority before the mold clock advances.

    Hotspot 3 — Southern Plains to Mid-Atlantic Marginal Risk this afternoon–evening

    SPC expects the Marginal Risk corridor to re-fire with daytime heating. The primary hazard is sporadic damaging wind gusts from multicell clusters and short line segments along the residual front and outflow boundaries. Isolated large hail is possible over the higher terrain of south-central Colorado into northeast New Mexico and the Panhandles. Vertical shear is modest overall but sufficient for organized bowing segments farther east where buoyancy is lower but mid-level flow is stronger.

    Key population centers under the Marginal Risk umbrella include parts of the Dallas–Fort Worth metroplex, Memphis, Nashville, and the Washington, D.C., corridor, though the risk is scattered rather than continuous. Local Severe Thunderstorm Warnings and Special Weather Statements are the expected mode of action rather than new watches.

    Just hit — overnight LSRs

    Preliminary Local Storm Reports from the 1200 UTC September 9 – 1159 UTC September 10 window include:

    • 1.75-inch hail 8 SE of Colorado City, Huerfano County, Colorado (0600 UTC).
    • Wind gusts of 72 mph near Booker, Lipscomb County, Texas; 70 mph SSE of Mayfield, Sumner County, Kansas; 73 mph near Patagonia, Arizona; and multiple 58–78 mph readings in the Arizona–New Mexico border country and western Kansas overnight.
    • Numerous tree, limb, and power-line damage reports across northern and central Ohio, northwest Pennsylvania, western West Virginia, and a long swath of eastern Kansas into western Missouri (Baldwin City, Wellington, Clinton, Holden, and surrounding towns).

    No tornado reports were received in the preliminary data for this period. All reports remain preliminary and subject to verification.

    Pulse table

    RegionMain threatsSPC / NWS / WPC levelStatus this morning
    Northern OH / NW PA / western NYResidual wind / tree / power damageWatch 665 expiredAftermath / just-hit
    SE Kansas / south-central MissouriFlash flood, training heavy rainFlood Warnings / Advisories activeLive water desk
    Southern Plains to Mid-AtlanticDamaging wind, isolated hailSPC Marginal RiskAfternoon–evening re-fire
    SE Colorado / NE New Mexico / PanhandlesIsolated large hail, strong windSPC Marginal (hail-focused)Afternoon terrain storms
    Ohio Valley / central KY (WPC)Excessive rainfall / flash floodWPC Slight RiskDay 1 outlook
    Atlantic / Gulf vs. U.S. mainlandNo landfalling tropical cycloneQuietQuiet

    What this means for restoration teams

    Wind damage from Wednesday night is already on the books in the Ohio–Pennsylvania corridor—tree removal, roof tarps, and service restoration. Kansas–Missouri flood work is the fresh ticket this morning: extract standing water, document, and start drying before temperatures climb. This afternoon’s Marginal Risk is scattered; the expected mode is isolated warnings rather than a continuous line. Stage for wind and isolated hail in the southern Plains and for additional water if cells train over already-wet ground in the Ohio Valley.

    Property owners in just-hit counties should photograph damage in remaining daylight if safe, contact the carrier, and begin extraction the same day if water is inside. Teams working the Kansas–Missouri flood pulse should treat every interior water job as time-sensitive.

    What this is not

    This is not a regional derecho and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. National Hurricane Center products show no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin threatening U.S. land; Tropical Storms Lowell and Norbert remain well offshore in the Pacific. The work today is local: residual wind swaths from Wednesday night, flash-flood pockets in southeast Kansas and western Missouri, and scattered severe gusts under a broad Marginal Risk this afternoon and evening.

    Looking ahead

    SPC’s Day 2 outlook already carries a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms for portions of Nebraska into the Upper Midwest on Friday. The cold front will continue to shift east and south, keeping a wet and occasionally strong storm pattern across the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic into the weekend. Watch the next Storm Tracker update rather than assuming today’s Marginal Risk is the end of the corridor.

    Sources and how to verify

    Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Convective Outlook issued 1300 UTC Thursday, September 10, 2026; SPC Local Storm Reports for the 1200 UTC September 9–1159 UTC September 10 period; SPC Current Watches page (no watches valid as of early Thursday); Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook and 94e points text; National Weather Service warning and flood-statement text from Wichita, Springfield, and neighboring offices; National Hurricane Center tropical weather outlooks confirming no Atlantic threats to U.S. land.

    Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watches, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay. Prior desk: Wednesday, September 9 storm updates — Ohio–Pennsylvania–western New York Slight Risk.

    Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.