Quiet Pulse Storm Updates — Oct 26 Morning

As of this Monday morning desk, October 26, 2026 (approximately 7:15 PM PDT October 25 / 02:15 UTC October 26), the national picture remains a Quiet Pulse. The Storm Prediction Center holds a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms from New Mexico into far west Texas and the western Texas Panhandle on the Day 1 Convective Outlook (2000 UTC October 25 update, valid through 1200Z October 26). Isolated large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a tornado or two remain possible this evening into the overnight. No convective watches are currently valid. The Weather Prediction Center holds a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over portions of the central and southern High Plains. No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning is in effect on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America.

Tropical: None · Severe: Marginal · Flood: Slight

What Changed

Compared with yesterday afternoon’s pulse table (quiet-pulse-2026-10-25-afternoon: Severe: Marginal · Flood: Slight · Tropical: None): SPC Day 1 continues a MARGINAL RISK of severe thunderstorms from New Mexico into far west Texas and the western Texas Panhandle. Isolated large hail, damaging gusts, and a tornado or two possible. No active Severe Thunderstorm Watches. Day 2 outlook shows no severe thunderstorm areas forecast.
WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook holds a SLIGHT RISK for portions of West Texas, New Mexico, and Colorado into far western Kansas. Highest rainfall rates 1–1.5 inches per hour possible over already saturated soils. No Moderate or above. Residual Flood Watches and Flash Flood Warnings continue in New Mexico.
Overnight LSRs and warnings: Flash Flood Warnings issued for portions of El Paso and Hudspeth Counties in western Texas and areas near Bernalillo, Santa Fe, and Torrance Counties in New Mexico. Heavy rain of 0.5–3 inches reported. No significant tornado confirmations.
No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America. Atlantic basin remains quiet with no tropical cyclones. Tropical Storm Vance (Eastern Pacific) and Tropical Storm Olana (Central Pacific) pose no U.S. land threat.
Nothing elevated any lane beyond Quiet Pulse criteria. Severe remains Marginal, flood remains Slight, tropical remains None. Primary residual ticket is isolated hail/wind and flash-flood runoff across New Mexico and far west Texas.

Live Status

SPC Day 1 (2000Z October 25) lists a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) of severe thunderstorms for New Mexico into far west Texas and the western Texas Panhandle, covering roughly 92,000 square miles and 2.6 million people including Albuquerque, Santa Fe, Rio Rancho, and Roswell. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible. Primary threats are large hail and damaging wind gusts, with a tornado or two possible. Greater buoyancy exists across southeastern New Mexico and far west Texas under 30–40+ kt effective shear. No changes in the latest update. No convective watches or Mesoscale Discussions currently active.

NWS offices continue Flash Flood Warnings in western Texas (El Paso/Hudspeth) and central New Mexico (Bernalillo, Santa Fe, Torrance) with radar-indicated and spotter-reported heavy rain. Saturated soils from multi-day rainfall elevate runoff risk on small streams, arroyos, urban areas, and burn scars. Flood Watches remain in effect across portions of New Mexico.

WPC maintains the Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over the central and southern High Plains. PWAT values support rainfall rates up to 1–1.5 inches per hour. Southeast Florida carries a residual Marginal Risk for urban flash flooding under onshore flow. No Moderate or higher ERO.

Hotspots

Central and eastern New Mexico (Albuquerque, Santa Fe, Roswell corridor): Marginal severe residual and WPC Slight. Isolated hail, wind, and brief tornado possible. Active or recent Flash Flood Warnings on saturated soils.
Far west Texas and western Texas Panhandle: Marginal severe overlap. Isolated damaging wind and hail possible. Residual urban and arroyo runoff risk under the Slight ERO.

Just-Hit

Overnight Flash Flood Warnings for southeastern El Paso County and western Hudspeth County in Texas with 0.5–2.5 inches of rain. Flash Flood Statements and warnings near Edgewood, Escabosa, and other communities in Bernalillo, Santa Fe, and Torrance Counties, New Mexico, with 1–3 inches reported and Interstate 40 impacts. Localized flooding of roads, low-lying areas, and small streams continues. No widespread severe reports confirmed overnight beyond isolated hail and wind.

Pulse Table

Lane	Status	Notes (as of ~7:15 PM PDT / 02:15 UTC Oct 26 2026)
Tropical	None	No tropical cyclones in the Atlantic. TS Vance (EPAC) and TS Olana (CPAC) pose no U.S. land threat. No coastal or Gulf watches or warnings.
Severe	Marginal	SPC Day 1 Marginal Risk over NM into far west TX and western TX Panhandle. No active watches. Isolated hail/wind/tornado possible. Day 2 quiet.
Flood	Slight	WPC Day 1 Slight Risk for High Plains. Active FFWs and Flood Watches in NM/TX. Saturated soils. No Moderate or higher.

Restoration Read

Residual restoration ticket is isolated hail and wind damage to roofs, vehicles, siding, and trees across New Mexico and far west Texas under the Marginal Risk. Secondary ticket is localized flash flooding and rapid runoff in urban corridors (Albuquerque, El Paso), small streams, canyons, and burn scars on already saturated soils. No widespread catastrophic damage expected. Monitor for lingering water intrusion and debris.

What This Is Not

This is a Quiet Pulse. No SPC Slight or higher severe risk on the latest Day 1 outlook. No WPC Moderate or higher excessive rainfall. No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America. This desk summarizes public products from the SPC, WPC, NWS, and NHC. It is not an official warning.

Looking Ahead

Monday Day 2: SPC shows no severe thunderstorm areas forecast. The upper trough continues to eject northeast. Residual flash-flood sensitivity remains where soils are saturated. WPC Day 1 threat winds down. Monitor local NWS offices for any lingering warnings.