Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse

As of this Sunday afternoon desk, October 25, 2026 (approximately 8:15 PM PDT / 03:15 UTC October 26), the national picture remains a Quiet Pulse. The Storm Prediction Center holds a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms from New Mexico into far west Texas and the western Texas Panhandle on the Day 1 Convective Outlook (2000 UTC update, valid through 1200Z October 26). Isolated large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a tornado or two remain possible this evening. No convective watches are currently valid. The Weather Prediction Center holds a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over portions of the central and southern High Plains and southeast Florida. No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning is in effect on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America.

Tropical: None · Severe: Marginal · Flood: Slight

What Changed

Compared with this morning’s pulse table (quiet-pulse-2026-10-25-morning: Severe: Marginal · Flood: Slight · Tropical: None): SPC Day 1 (2000Z October 25 / 2:55 PM CDT) continues a MARGINAL RISK of severe thunderstorms from New Mexico into far west Texas and the western Texas Panhandle (roughly 92,000 sq mi, 2.6 million people including Albuquerque, Santa Fe, Rio Rancho, Roswell). Isolated large hail, damaging gusts, and a tornado or two possible this afternoon/evening. No active Severe Thunderstorm Watches. Threat remains isolated.
WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook holds a SLIGHT RISK for portions of the central and southern High Plains (West Texas, New Mexico, Colorado) and southeast Florida. Highest rainfall rates 1–1.5 inches per hour possible over already saturated soils in the Southwest. No Moderate or above.
Local NWS offices continue to issue Severe Thunderstorm Warnings (e.g., near Roswell in Chaves County) and residual Flash Flood concerns. Flood Watches remain on saturated soils in New Mexico. No elevation of any lane.
No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America. Atlantic basin remains quiet. Tropical Storm Vance (Eastern Pacific) and Tropical Storm Olana (Central Pacific) pose no U.S. land threat.
Nothing moved beyond Quiet Pulse criteria. Severe remains Marginal, flood remains Slight, tropical remains None. Primary residual ticket is isolated hail/wind and flash-flood runoff across New Mexico and far west Texas.

Live Status

SPC Day 1 lists a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) of severe thunderstorms for New Mexico into far west Texas and the western Texas Panhandle. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening. Primary threats are large hail and damaging wind gusts, with a tornado or two possible. Greater buoyancy exists across southeastern New Mexico and far west Texas where MLCAPE values support stronger cells under 30–40+ kt effective shear. No changes were made to the existing outlook in the 2000Z update. No convective watches are active.

NWS Albuquerque has issued recent Severe Thunderstorm Warnings for areas near Roswell (central Chaves County) with 60 mph gusts and half-dollar size hail possible. Flood Watches cover portions of central and eastern New Mexico on saturated soils from multi-day rainfall. Residual flash-flood risk persists in urban corridors and small streams.

WPC maintains the Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over the central and southern High Plains and southeast Florida. In the High Plains, PWAT values support rainfall rates up to 1–1.5 inches per hour. In southeast Florida, onshore flow supports 1–2 inches with urban flash-flood potential along the I-95 corridor. No Moderate or higher ERO.

Hotspots

Central and eastern New Mexico (Albuquerque, Santa Fe, Roswell corridor): Marginal severe residual and WPC Slight. Isolated hail, wind, and brief tornado possible. Active or recent Severe Thunderstorm Warnings. Flood Watches on saturated soils.
Far west Texas and western Texas Panhandle: Marginal severe overlap. Isolated damaging wind and hail possible. Residual urban runoff risk under the Slight ERO.
Southeast Florida: WPC Slight Risk for excessive rainfall. Onshore flow and coastal convergence support 1–2 inches with locally higher totals. Urban flash-flood potential along the I-95 corridor.

Just-Hit

Recent Severe Thunderstorm Warnings near Roswell (Chaves County) for 60 mph gusts and hail. Residual Flash Flood concerns on saturated soils. No confirmed significant tornado reports this evening. Localized flooding and isolated severe impacts continue in the Southwest.

Pulse Table

Lane	Status	Notes (as of ~03:15 UTC Oct 26 2026 / 8:15 PM PDT Oct 25)
Tropical	None	No tropical cyclones in the Atlantic. TS Vance (EPAC) and TS Olana (CPAC) pose no U.S. land threat. No coastal or Gulf watches or warnings.
Severe	Marginal	SPC Day 1 Marginal Risk over NM into far west TX and western TX Panhandle. No active watches. Isolated hail/wind/tornado possible this evening.
Flood	Slight	WPC Day 1 Slight Risk for central/southern High Plains and SE Florida. Residual FF concerns and Flood Watches in NM. Saturated soils. No Moderate or higher.

Restoration Read

Residual restoration ticket is isolated hail and wind damage to roofs, vehicles, siding, and trees across New Mexico and far west Texas under the Marginal Risk. Secondary ticket is localized flash flooding and rapid runoff in urban corridors (Albuquerque, Roswell, El Paso), small streams, and burn scars on already saturated soils. Southeast Florida carries an urban flash-flood ticket under the Slight ERO. No widespread catastrophic damage expected.

What This Is Not

This is a Quiet Pulse. No SPC Slight or higher severe risk on the latest Day 1 outlook. No WPC Moderate or higher excessive rainfall. No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America. This desk summarizes public products from the SPC, WPC, NWS, and NHC. It is not an official warning.

Looking Ahead

Monday (Day 2): SPC shows no severe risk area. WPC Day 1 threat winds down overnight into early Monday. Residual flash-flood sensitivity remains where soils are saturated. Monitor local NWS offices for any lingering warnings.