As of this Sunday morning desk, October 25, 2026 (approximately 9:12 PM PDT Saturday / 4:12 AM UTC Sunday), the national picture remains a Quiet Pulse. The Storm Prediction Center holds a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms across portions of central and southern New Mexico and far west Texas on the Day 1 Convective Outlook valid through 1200Z Sunday. Isolated severe wind, hail, and a tornado remain possible early overnight as storms continue but instability decreases with nocturnal cooling. Severe Thunderstorm Watch 697 is expiring or has expired at 0400Z October 25. The Weather Prediction Center holds a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over portions of West Texas, New Mexico, and Colorado into far western Kansas. No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning is in effect on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America.
Tropical: None · Severe: Marginal · Flood: Slight
What Changed
- Compared with yesterday afternoon’s pulse table (quiet-pulse-2026-10-24-afternoon: Severe: Marginal · Flood: Slight · Tropical: None): the SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook (0100 UTC October 25 / 8:07 PM CDT Saturday, October 24, 2026, valid 250100Z–251200Z, corrected) continues a MARGINAL RISK of severe thunderstorms across portions of central and southern New Mexico and far west Texas (roughly 84,000 sq mi, 2.5 million people including El Paso, Albuquerque, Las Cruces, Santa Fe, and Rio Rancho). Isolated severe wind/hail and a tornado remain possible this evening into early overnight; the environment is becoming less conducive with congealing storms and weakening instability.
- Severe Thunderstorm Watch 697 (issued ~2055Z October 24 for NM and TX) expires at 0400Z October 25. Primary residual threats are isolated large hail and severe gusts as storms congeal. No new Mesoscale Discussions elevating the threat beyond isolated.
- WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 0102 UTC Sunday October 25, valid 01Z–12Z October 25) holds a SLIGHT RISK for portions of West Texas, New Mexico, and Colorado into far western Kansas. Highest totals 1.5–3 inches possible, especially northeastern New Mexico and southeastern Colorado. No Moderate or above. Active Flash Flood Warnings and Flood Watches continue in central New Mexico on saturated soils.
- No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America. Atlantic basin remains quiet with no tropical cyclones and no formation expected in the next 7 days (NHC 800 PM EDT Saturday outlook). Hurricane Vance (Eastern Pacific) continues well south of Mexico with no U.S. land threat.
- Nothing material moved in the lanes overnight. Severe remains Marginal, flood remains Slight, tropical remains None. Quiet Pulse criteria are met. Primary residual ticket is isolated hail/wind and flash-flood runoff in New Mexico and far west Texas.
Live Status
SPC Day 1 lists a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) of severe thunderstorms for central and southern New Mexico and far west Texas. Showers and thunderstorms continue across the Southwest. The most intense cells are across Far West Texas north into central New Mexico, where radar continues to suggest large hail and severe gusts remain possible. The 00 UTC Albuquerque sounding showed MUCAPE around 900 J/kg that has peaked and will weaken with low-level stabilization. Congealing storms and decreasing buoyancy lead to an increasingly sporadic severe threat overnight, though isolated large hail and severe wind gusts may still occur over the next couple of hours as of the 0100Z update.
Local NWS offices have issued and expired Severe Thunderstorm Warnings overnight, with active or recent Flash Flood Warnings in counties such as Bernalillo, Santa Fe, Torrance, and Hudspeth for heavy rain and observed flooding. Flood Watches remain in effect until 6 AM MDT Sunday for portions of south-central New Mexico and southwest Texas.
WPC maintains the Slight Risk of excessive rainfall. Rainfall rates of 1–1.5 inches per hour possible in the highest zones, capable of flash flooding in urban areas, roads, small streams, narrow canyons, and burn scars, especially where prior rainfall has saturated soils. No Moderate or higher ERO.
Hotspots
- Central New Mexico (Albuquerque, Santa Fe, Rio Rancho corridor): Marginal severe residual and WPC Slight. Ongoing or residual convection with isolated hail/wind possible into early overnight. Flash Flood Warnings active in sensitive terrain and urban areas on saturated soils.
- Far west Texas and El Paso / Hudspeth County: Marginal severe overlap. Recent Severe Thunderstorm Warnings for gusts and hail. Flash Flood Warnings for west-central Hudspeth. Urban runoff risk under the Slight ERO.
- Southeastern Colorado and northeastern New Mexico: WPC Slight Risk for excessive rainfall. Residual upslope and training potential. Lower severe threat. Sensitivity from earlier activity this week.
Just-Hit
Flash Flood Warnings remain or were recently active in Bernalillo, Santa Fe, Torrance, Lincoln, Cibola, and Hudspeth Counties, with observed flooding of roads, I-40 segments, and low-lying areas. Severe Thunderstorm Warnings have expired in Chaves and other counties as storms weakened below severe limits. No confirmed significant tornado reports. Localized flooding and wind/hail impacts ongoing or residual in the Southwest corridor.
Pulse Table
| Lane | Status | Notes (as of ~4:12 AM UTC Oct 25 2026) |
|---|---|---|
| Tropical | None | No tropical cyclones in the Atlantic. Hurricane Vance (EPAC) far south of Mexico. No U.S. coastal or Gulf watches or warnings. |
| Severe | Marginal | SPC Day 1 Marginal Risk over central/southern NM and far west TX. Watch 697 expiring 0400Z. Isolated hail/wind/tornado possible early overnight. Threat decreasing. |
| Flood | Slight | WPC Day 1 Slight Risk for portions of NM, southern CO, West TX. 1.5–3″ possible. Active FFWs and Watches. Residual sensitivity. No Moderate or higher. |
Restoration Read
Residual restoration ticket is isolated hail and wind damage to roofs, vehicles, siding, and trees across central and southern New Mexico and far west Texas under the Marginal Risk. Secondary ticket is localized flash flooding and rapid runoff in urban corridors (El Paso, Albuquerque), small streams, canyons, and burn scars on already saturated soils. No widespread catastrophic damage expected; threats diminish overnight into Sunday morning.
What This Is Not
This is a Quiet Pulse. No SPC Slight or higher severe risk remains on the latest Day 1 outlook. No WPC Moderate or higher excessive rainfall. No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America. This desk summarizes public products from the SPC, WPC, NWS, and NHC. It is not an official warning.
Looking Ahead
Sunday (continuing Day 1 into Day 2): SPC Day 2 outlooks a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms from southern/eastern New Mexico into far west Texas for isolated large hail and an isolated tornado Sunday afternoon/evening. WPC maintains some excessive rainfall potential as the upper low progresses. The organized severe window closes overnight. Monitor local NWS offices for any lingering warnings.
Rising Queries
Trends unreachable.
Sources
Official products: Storm Prediction Center (Day 1 Outlook 0100Z Oct 25, Watch 697), Weather Prediction Center (Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook), National Weather Service (watches, warnings, flood statements), National Hurricane Center (Atlantic quiet; Hurricane Vance Eastern Pacific). Previous desk: quiet-pulse-2026-10-24-afternoon.
Informational only — not an official weather warning. Always check weather.gov for local forecasts and warnings. Turn around, don’t drown.
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