Category: Storm Tracker

Storm briefs and active weather that restoration crews plan around.

Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Oct 23 Morning

Tropical: None · Severe: Marginal · Flood: Slight

What Changed

Compared with the October 23 afternoon desk pulse table (Tropical: None · Severe: Marginal · Flood: Slight): the latest SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook (0100 UTC October 24 / 8:02 PM CDT Friday, October 23, 2026, valid 240100Z–241200Z) holds a MARGINAL RISK of severe thunderstorms over portions of New Mexico, southern Colorado and far west Texas. Isolated large hail, severe gusts and perhaps a tornado remain possible this evening; threat becoming more isolated with nocturnal cooling.
Severe Thunderstorm Watch 696 has expired. SPC reports no watches currently valid. The most recent was #696 for central and western New Mexico and far west Texas, which covered until 9:00 PM MDT. Primary threats were scattered large hail (isolated to 3 inches) and scattered damaging winds to 70 mph.
WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook continues a SLIGHT RISK for portions of New Mexico, far west Texas and southern Colorado (updated ~0806 UTC October 23, valid 12Z Oct 23–12Z Oct 24). Broader Marginal Risk surrounds it. No Moderate or above. Residual sensitivity from earlier rainfall in terrain and burn scars.
NHC: No tropical cyclones in the Atlantic. Hurricane Vance remains well south of Mexico in the Eastern Pacific, not threatening U.S. land. No tropical storm or hurricane watches or warnings on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America.
Severe lane holds at Marginal after the daytime Slight. Flood lane unchanged at Slight. Watch 696 closed. Quiet Pulse remains open. Dominant residual restoration ticket is New Mexico and far west Texas hail and wind.

Live Status

As of this Friday evening update to the October 23 morning desk (approximately 9:15 PM PDT / 12:15 AM EDT / 0415Z October 24, with products valid through the Day 1 period ending 12Z Saturday), the national picture is a Quiet Pulse. The latest SPC Day 1 lists a Marginal Risk covering roughly 82,000 square miles and about 2.4 million people, including El Paso TX, Albuquerque NM, Las Cruces NM, Santa Fe NM and Rio Rancho NM. Isolated severe thunderstorms with large hail, severe gusts, and perhaps a tornado remain possible this evening. The environment is becoming less conducive with nocturnal cooling and decreasing buoyancy; the severe threat becomes increasingly more isolated and focused tonight.

WPC Day 1 places a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over portions of New Mexico, far west Texas and southern Colorado. Soils in southwestern Colorado and northwestern New Mexico remain somewhat sensitive from prior heavy rainfall. Locally heavy rates of 1–1.5 inches per hour possible in intense cells, with highest totals favored in northern New Mexico where terrain focuses convection. Isolated to widely scattered flash flooding possible on steep terrain, burn scars and urban areas. Broader Marginal Risk covers much of New Mexico and southern Colorado.

The tropical lane is closed for U.S. land impact. No named systems threaten the coast or Gulf. Hurricane Vance remains far south in the Eastern Pacific, not affecting the United States. No U.S. watches or warnings are in effect. SPC confirms no convective watches currently valid.

Hotspots

Central and western New Mexico and far west Texas: Residual Marginal severe threat this evening after Watch 696 expiration. Earlier supercells and clusters capable of large to very large hail and damaging winds to 70 mph. Albuquerque, Santa Fe, Las Cruces and El Paso metros were included. Isolated tornado possible but low probability. Threat diminishing overnight.

Northern New Mexico and southern Colorado: Slight excessive rainfall risk overlapping residual severe potential. Terrain-driven heavy rain rates possible; residual sensitivity from prior rainfall. Flash flood potential highest in mountains, burn scars and urban corridors near Albuquerque.

Pulse Table

Lane	Status	Notes (as of ~9:15 PM PDT / 0415Z Oct 24 2026)
Tropical	None	No tropical cyclones in Atlantic. Hurricane Vance (EPAC) far south of Mexico, not threatening U.S. land. No U.S. coastal watches or warnings.
Severe	Marginal	SPC Day 1 (0100Z Oct 24): Marginal for NM, southern CO and far west TX. Isolated large hail, severe gusts, perhaps tornado this evening. Watch 696 expired. No watches currently valid.
Flood	Slight	WPC Day 1 Slight for portions of NM, far west TX and southern CO. Marginal broader. Residual sensitivity from earlier rainfall. No Moderate or higher.

Rising Queries

Trends unreachable

Restoration Read

Dominant residual ticket is New Mexico and far west Texas severe under the now-expired Severe Thunderstorm Watch 696: large hail and damaging wind impacts to roofs, vehicles, windows and vegetation. Residual flash-flood sensitivity remains in northern New Mexico and southern Colorado terrain and burn scars. No tropical component. Monitor official sources for any lingering Severe Thunderstorm Warnings and Flash Flood Warnings.

What This Is Not

This is not an official forecast or warning. It is a desk summary of public products from the SPC, WPC, NWS and NHC. A Marginal severe risk covers portions of New Mexico and far west Texas this evening. Slight excessive rainfall risk covers portions of the same region. No U.S. tropical watches or warnings are active. Watch 696 has expired. Quiet Pulse is open.

Looking Ahead

Saturday: SPC Day 2 maintains a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms across New Mexico and far west Texas. WPC continues excessive rainfall potential as the trough progresses. The severe threat diminishes overnight tonight after the peak this afternoon/evening. No new tropical threat indicated for U.S. land. Residual runoff continues in sensitive basins.

Sources

Informational only — not an official warning. Always confirm with the latest official forecasts from weather.gov, spc.noaa.gov, wpc.ncep.noaa.gov, and nhc.noaa.gov. Turn around, don’t drown.

October 22, 2026

Storm Updates: Arizona Slight — Oct 21

Tropical: None · Severe: Slight · Flood: Slight

What Changed

Compared with this morning’s pulse table (which carried an Enhanced risk over central Arizona): the latest SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook (0100 UTC October 22 / 6:00 PM PDT October 21, 2026, valid 220100Z–221200Z, issued 0800 PM CDT) holds a SLIGHT RISK of severe thunderstorms for much of Arizona into far southeast Nevada and southwest Utah. Large hail remains the primary threat, with a couple of tornadoes and damaging winds possible overnight. The categorical risk stepped down from the earlier Enhanced area focused on Flagstaff–Prescott–Sedona.
Severe Thunderstorm Watches have been active across northern and central Arizona; earlier Tornado Watch 688 transitioned. Local storm reports through the day and evening include hail of 1–2.5 inches (golf ball to larger) near Flagstaff, Prescott, Deer Valley, Mesa, Safford, and Maricopa, plus measured gusts to 60+ mph. Flash Flood Warnings continue on higher terrain, burn scars, and dry washes in Arizona and southern Utah.
WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated ~0015 UTC October 22, valid 01Z–12Z October 22) maintains a SLIGHT RISK over the Southwest and Four Corners, including Southern California ranges and much of Arizona. No upgrade to Moderate. A Marginal risk persists near the lower Texas coast.
Subtropical Storm Josephine (Advisory 1 at 5 PM AST, subsequent updates) is centered near 37.4N 69.5W with 65 mph winds, moving north then accelerating northeast away from the United States. No tropical storm or hurricane watches or warnings are in effect on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America. Tropical Storm Vance remains far south of Mexico in the Eastern Pacific.
The morning desk is linked under Sources. Arizona severe and Southwest flood lanes remain open as the restoration drivers. Quiet Pulse is closed.

Live Status

As of this Wednesday afternoon desk, October 21, 2026 (approximately 9:14 PM PDT / 12:14 AM EDT October 22 / 0414Z October 22), the SPC lists a Slight risk (Level 2 of 5) across much of Arizona, including the Phoenix metro (Phoenix, Mesa, Glendale, Chandler, Scottsdale), extending into far southeast Nevada and southwest Utah through the overnight. Marginal risk covers coastal central and southern California. Supercells are favored with elongated hodographs and 55–65 kt effective shear; large hail is the primary threat, with severe gusts and a couple of tornadoes possible where low-level curvature increases near the Mogollon Rim and local terrain.

The flood lane stays Slight. WPC continues the Slight risk of excessive rainfall over the Southwest and Four Corners, driven by a deep cyclone near the California coast scooping anomalous tropical moisture (IVT values of 300–700 kg/ms, PWAT 0.75–1.5 inches). Hourly rainfall amounts to 2–2.5 inches remain possible with training or backbuilding over terrain, burn scars, urban areas, slot canyons, and dry washes. Day 2 outlooks maintain Slight risk over portions of southeast Arizona.

The tropical lane is closed for U.S. land impact. Subtropical Storm Josephine is a few hundred miles offshore the Mid-Atlantic, forecast to move northeastward away from the United States with no coastal watches or warnings. Residual coastal flood and high-surf products from the offshore system continue along parts of the East Coast but do not meet Moderate or higher excessive rainfall thresholds. See the Josephine 2026 storm hub.

Hotspots

Central and northern Arizona (Mogollon Rim to Flagstaff–Prescott): Primary overnight severe threat. Ongoing and additional supercells capable of large hail (up to 2+ inches), damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes. Multiple warnings and reports have already verified across Yavapai, Coconino, and Navajo counties.

Phoenix metro and southern Arizona: Included in the Slight risk envelope. Multiple rounds of storms have produced hail and wind damage; continued supercell potential overnight as the axis shifts eastward.

Southern California coastal ranges and Transverse Ranges: Marginal severe (isolated gusts, low-end tornado potential) plus Slight flood risk as the Pacific cyclone approaches. Terrain-enhanced rainfall and burn-scar runoff are the primary concerns.

Just-Hit

Local storm reports and media accounts through the day and early evening document hail of 1–2.5 inches (golf-ball size and larger) near Flagstaff, Prescott, Deer Valley, Mesa, Safford, and Maricopa County, with reports of shattered windows, dented vehicles, and downed trees (including ponderosa pines in the Coconino National Forest). Tornado warnings were issued for parts of Coconino and Yavapai Counties. Flash Flood Warnings remain active over parts of southern Utah, Arizona burn scars, and higher terrain. No widespread major river flooding is reported, but the setup supports rapid runoff overnight.

Pulse Table

Lane	Status	Notes (as of ~9:14 PM PDT / 0414Z 22 Oct 2026)
Tropical	None	Subtropical Storm Josephine ~37.4N 69.5W, 65 mph, accelerating NE away from the U.S. No coastal watches or warnings. TS Vance far south of Mexico.
Severe	Slight	SPC Day 1 (0100Z Oct 22): Slight over much of AZ into SE NV/SW UT for large hail, couple tornadoes, damaging winds. Marginal coastal CA. Active warnings and verifying LSRs.
Flood	Slight	WPC Day 1 Slight over Southwest/Four Corners including SoCal ranges and AZ. Hourly 2–2.5″ possible. Burn scars, urban areas, canyons primary concern.

Rising Queries

Arizona tornado watch
Phoenix hail storm October 21
Flagstaff severe weather
Mogollon Rim storms
Southern California flash flood

Restoration Read

Dominant ticket is Arizona severe (Slight overnight after daytime Enhanced verification with large hail and wind damage) plus Southwest Slight flood risk. Phoenix metro and central Arizona face continued supercell potential tonight. Southern California sees the moisture plume and terrain-enhanced rain. Monitor official sources for active warnings. This morning’s desk is linked under Sources.

What This Is Not

This is not an official forecast or warning. It is a desk summary of public products from the SPC, WPC, NWS, and NHC. No Moderate or higher flood risk is in effect on Day 1, no U.S. tropical watches or warnings are active, and the severe categorical risk has stepped down from Enhanced to Slight for the overnight period.

Looking Ahead

Thursday: SPC Day 2 carries a Slight risk over portions of southeast Arizona. WPC Day 2 continues Slight excessive rainfall potential over the Southwest. Josephine becomes post-tropical and accelerates farther northeast. The Pacific cyclone continues to influence California and the Southwest through Thursday, with the primary severe axis shifting eastward into Arizona and southwest New Mexico overnight into early Thursday.

Sources

Informational only — not an official warning. Always confirm with the latest official forecasts from weather.gov, spc.noaa.gov, wpc.ncep.noaa.gov, and nhc.noaa.gov. Turn around, don’t drown.

October 21, 2026

Storm Updates: Arizona Slight — Oct 21 Morning

Tropical: None · Severe: Slight · Flood: Slight

What Changed

Compared with the October 21 afternoon desk (quiet-pulse-2026-10-21-afternoon): SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook (0100 UTC October 22 / 6:00 PM PDT October 21, 2026, valid 220100Z–221200Z) holds a SLIGHT RISK of severe thunderstorms for much of Arizona into far southeast Nevada and southwest Utah. Earlier Enhanced risk over central Arizona has closed with the end of peak diurnal heating; supercells remain possible overnight.
Severe Thunderstorm Watches 689 and 690 remain active over central and southern Arizona. Multiple Severe Thunderstorm Warnings and Tornado Warnings verified earlier; LSRs include large hail (up to golf-ball size) and damaging winds in Yavapai, Coconino, and Maricopa Counties.
WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 0015 UTC October 22, valid 01Z–12Z October 22) maintains a SLIGHT RISK over portions of southern California and the Southwest U.S. (including much of Arizona, southern Utah, southwest Colorado, western New Mexico). No upgrade to Moderate. Heavy rainfall rates continue with the moist plume and upper low.
NHC continues advisories on Subtropical Storm Josephine (Advisory ~2: ~37.7°N 69.4°W, 65 mph, moving NNE at 6 mph, expected to accelerate northeast away from the U.S. and become extratropical with hurricane-force winds). No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America. Eastern Pacific Tropical Storm Vance remains well south of Mexico with no U.S. threat. Storm hub: Josephine 2026.
Both severe and flood lanes remain open at Slight. Restoration focus stays on Arizona hail/wind/isolated tornado damage plus Southwest flash-flood potential from ongoing convection. Quiet Pulse remains closed.

Live Status

As of this Wednesday evening update to the morning desk, October 21, 2026 (approximately 9:12 PM PDT / 12:12 AM EDT October 22 / 0412Z October 22), the national picture centers on the Southwest. SPC Day 1 lists a Slight risk (Level 2 of 5) of severe thunderstorms across much of Arizona (including the Phoenix metro: Phoenix, Mesa, Glendale, Chandler, Scottsdale) into far southeast Nevada and southwest Utah for tonight. Marginal risk covers coastal central and southern California. Supercells are favored with elongated hodographs and 55–65 kt effective shear; large hail is the primary threat (locally 2+ inches possible), with a couple of tornadoes and damaging winds also possible given residual low-level shear and terrain influences. MUCAPE remains 1000–1500 J/kg under the advancing cold core of the deep upper low off the California coast. Additional development is expected across south-central Arizona overnight as shortwave energy approaches from Mexico.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 689 covers central and southern Arizona until roughly 9:00 PM MST, with primary threats of scattered large hail (isolated very large), damaging winds to 70 mph, and a tornado or two. Watch 690 extends coverage further. Radar and local storm reports earlier today verified hail to 1.5 inches and 60 mph gusts near Prescott, Hawkins, Iron Springs, and other locations in Yavapai and Coconino Counties. Tornado warnings were issued in northern Arizona (first tornado watch products for the state in roughly 16 years). Convection is shifting eastward across Arizona into southwest New Mexico into early Thursday.

WPC Day 1 carries a Slight risk of excessive rainfall over southern California (focused on the Transverse Ranges, burn scars, and urban corridors north and northeast of Los Angeles) and the broader Southwest/Four Corners, including much of Arizona, southern Utah, and adjacent areas. Persistent southerly flow is advecting anomalous moisture; HREF probabilities for additional >1 inch rainfall remain high (>70%) through 12Z. Hourly rates of 0.5–1+ inches are possible, with higher amounts in terrain. Flash Flood Warnings have been issued in parts of Coconino County and southern Utah (including near Zion and Bryce areas). Residual Flood Watches cover higher terrain and burn scars. No Moderate or higher ERO is in effect on Day 1.

Tropical lane remains closed for the United States. Subtropical Storm Josephine is accelerating northeast away from the East Coast with no coastal watches or warnings. Residual high surf and coastal flood products may continue along portions of the East Coast from the parent system, but these do not open a tropical lane for this desk. Winter Storm Warnings remain active in parts of Alaska; these are outside the primary severe/flood focus.

Just-Hit

Preliminary local storm reports and media accounts document golf-ball-sized hail, shattered windows, dented vehicles, and downed trees across northern and central Arizona, including Flagstaff and Mesa areas. Strong winds toppled trees in the Coconino National Forest. Multiple tornado warnings and the first tornado watch for northern Arizona since 2010 verified earlier in the day. Flash Flood Warnings are active or recent over parts of Coconino County, southern Utah (including Zion National Park vicinity with reported muddy flows), and higher terrain/burn scars. No widespread major flooding has been reported as of this update, but the setup supports rapid runoff and urban/terrain flash flooding overnight. Primary ongoing restoration ticket is hail and wind damage to roofs, vehicles, and vegetation in the Phoenix metro and high country, with secondary flash-flood concerns in sensitive terrain.

Pulse Table

Lane	Status	Notes (as of ~9:12 PM PDT / 0412Z 22 Oct 2026)
Tropical	None	Subtropical Storm Josephine ~37.7N 69.4W, 65 mph, moving NNE away. No U.S. watches/warnings. TS Vance far south of Mexico. Hub live.
Severe	Slight	SPC Day 1 (0100Z Oct 22): Slight over much of AZ into far SE NV/SW UT for large hail (primary), couple tornadoes, damaging winds. Marginal coastal CA. SVR TSTM Watches 689 & 690 active. LSRs of large hail and wind verified.
Flood	Slight	WPC Day 1: Slight over southern CA and Southwest (AZ, S UT, SW CO, W NM). High probs for additional heavy rain. FFWs recent in Coconino AZ and S UT. No Moderate+.

Rising Queries

Trends unreachable.

What This Means

The restoration ticket is driven by the Arizona Slight risk severe weather, with supporting flash-flood potential across the Southwest. Organized supercells continue into the evening and overnight with primary hazards of large hail and damaging winds, plus a couple of tornadoes possible. Phoenix metro and central Arizona remain in the threat area under active watches. Southern California sees a marginal severe threat from the approaching Pacific cyclone plus a Slight excessive rainfall risk focused on coastal ranges and urban areas. Named storm hub for Josephine is live even though no U.S. coastal threat. Monitor official sources for the latest warnings and local impacts.

Informational only — not an official warning. Always confirm with the latest official forecasts from weather.gov, spc.noaa.gov, wpc.ncep.noaa.gov, and nhc.noaa.gov. Turn around, don’t drown.

October 20, 2026

Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Oct 20

Tropical: None · Severe: Quiet · Flood: Quiet

As of this Tuesday afternoon desk, October 20, 2026 (approximately 8:14 PM PDT / 11:14 PM EDT / 0314Z October 21), the national picture holds as a Quiet Pulse. SPC Day 1 continues with no severe thunderstorm areas forecast through tonight. WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook shows the probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance less than 5 percent. No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning is in effect on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America.

What Changed

Compared with this morning’s quiet-pulse-2026-10-20-morning pulse table: SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook (latest 0100 UTC / 7:51 PM CDT Tuesday, October 20, 2026, valid 210100Z–211200Z) continues NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST. No categorical severe risk remains open. No convective watches or Mesoscale Discussions are currently in effect.
WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated ~0028 UTC Wednesday October 21 / ~8:28 PM EDT Tuesday, valid 01Z–12Z Oct 21) confirms the probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less than 5 percent. The prior Marginal Risk over the Southwest has fully closed for Day 1. No Moderate or higher.
No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America. NHC reports no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Eastern Pacific, or Central Pacific. AL93 remains a storm-force non-tropical low a few hundred miles off the mid-Atlantic/North Carolina coast with a medium (40%) chance of briefly acquiring subtropical characteristics over the next couple of days as it moves north-northeast over the Gulf Stream. High winds, coastal flooding, and dangerous surf continue along portions of the East Coast.
Looking ahead (not Day 1): SPC Day 2 maintains an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms across portions of Arizona for Wednesday, with large hail and tornado potential. WPC Day 2 carries a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over the Southwest and Four Corners. Flood Watches are in effect for much of central and eastern Arizona, plus portions of New Mexico, Colorado, and California starting Wednesday. This remains outside the current Day 1 window.
Nothing material has moved to open a Slight or higher severe lane or Moderate or higher flood lane for today. Quiet Pulse holds on Day 1.

Live Status

SPC Day 1 (0100Z October 21) lists no severe thunderstorm areas. Isolated thunderstorms remain possible this evening into tonight across parts of the Desert Southwest and Intermountain West under modest instability, and overnight along a low-level moisture axis over the southern and central Great Plains, but no severe threat is forecast. No watches are valid.

The flood lane is Quiet on Day 1. Residual river Flood Warnings continue in Florida (St. Johns River near Astor, moderate stage) and Georgia (Satilla River at Atkinson). Coastal and marine products, including Gale Warnings and Storm Warnings offshore the mid-Atlantic, persist with the non-tropical low. Flood Watches for Wednesday cover portions of the Southwest and California ahead of the next system. Winter Storm Warnings remain active in interior Alaska.

Hotspots

Southwest / Arizona corridor (looking ahead): Flood Watches already issued for central and eastern Arizona, southwest Colorado, and western New Mexico starting Wednesday afternoon. SPC Day 2 Enhanced Risk targets portions of Arizona for large hail and isolated tornadoes. WPC Day 2 Slight Risk of excessive rainfall covers the Southwest and Four Corners.
East Coast coastal / marine: Storm-force non-tropical low (AL93) offshore the mid-Atlantic continues to drive high winds, coastal flooding, and dangerous surf. Gale Warnings and Storm Warnings are in effect for offshore waters. No tropical development is imminent for U.S. land.
Residual river and Alaska winter: Ongoing Flood Warnings on the St. Johns (FL) and Satilla (GA). Winter Storm Warnings remain active across portions of interior Alaska (Eastern Alaska Range, Fortymile Country, Yukon Flats) with heavy snow totals of 5–36 inches depending on elevation.

Just-Hit

No significant local storm reports of severe weather (hail ≥1 inch, damaging wind, tornado) or widespread flash flooding on Day 1. Prior Marginal activity over southeast Arizona and southwest New Mexico has ended with loss of heating. Residual river stages and coastal products only.

Pulse Table

Lane	Status	Notes (as of ~8:14 PM PDT / 11:14 PM EDT / 0314Z 21 Oct 2026)
Tropical	None	No named systems threatening U.S. land or Gulf. NHC: no tropical cyclones Atlantic/EPAC/CPAC. AL93 non-tropical low off mid-Atlantic (40% subtropical chance next few days). No U.S. tropical watches/warnings.
Severe	Quiet	SPC Day 1 (0100Z Oct 21): NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST. No watches or MDs valid. Isolated thunder possible Southwest and Plains overnight, no severe threat.
Flood	Quiet	WPC Day 1 probability <5%. Residual river Flood Warnings (St. Johns near Astor FL, Satilla Atkinson GA). Flood Watches issued for Southwest/CA starting Wednesday. Day 2 Slight Risk Southwest.

Rising Queries

“Flood watch” is rising in U.S. Trends, driven by the Arizona and Southwest Flood Watches issued ahead of Wednesday’s system. Related searches include Arizona weather, severe storms Arizona, and Phoenix flood watch. Broader weather forecast queries remain elevated with the approaching Day 2 risk.

Restoration Read

Quiet Pulse for today. No open Slight or higher severe or Moderate or higher flood lanes on Day 1. Residual river flooding in Florida and Georgia is the primary ongoing water concern. Coastal flooding and high surf along the East Coast will continue with the offshore low. Wednesday brings the first above-Quiet window over Arizona and the Southwest—monitor Flood Watches and the Day 2 Enhanced Risk closely. Turn around, don’t drown on any residual flooded roads.

What This Is Not

This is a Quiet Pulse. No SPC Slight or higher severe risk, no WPC Moderate or higher excessive rainfall on Day 1, and no tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf. The Enhanced severe and Slight flood risks for Wednesday remain outside the current Day 1 window.

Looking Ahead One Day

Wednesday holds an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms across portions of Arizona (large hail, isolated tornado potential) on the SPC Day 2 outlook. WPC Day 2 carries a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over the Southwest and Four Corners. Flood Watches are already in effect for much of central and eastern Arizona and adjacent areas starting Wednesday. The East Coast offshore low continues to influence winds, surf, and coastal flooding as it moves northeast. No named tropical threat to the U.S. coast is indicated.

Sources

SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook: spc.noaa.gov
WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook: wpc.ncep.noaa.gov
NWS Watches/Warnings: weather.gov
NHC: nhc.noaa.gov
This morning’s desk: quiet-pulse-2026-10-20-morning

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Always consult official NWS, SPC, WPC, and NHC products for decisions.

October 20, 2026

Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Oct 20 Morning

Tropical: None · Severe: Quiet · Flood: Quiet

What Changed

Compared with the October 19 afternoon desk (quiet-pulse-2026-10-19-afternoon): SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook (latest 0100 UTC / 7:51 PM CDT Tuesday, October 20, 2026, valid 210100Z–211200Z) continues NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST. The prior Marginal Risk over southeast Arizona and southwest New Mexico has fully closed. Isolated thunderstorms remain possible this evening into tonight across parts of the Desert Southwest and Intermountain West, and overnight along a low-level moisture axis over the southern and central Great Plains, but no categorical severe risk and no watches.
WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 0028 UTC Wednesday October 21 / ~8:28 PM EDT Tuesday, valid 01Z–12Z Oct 21) confirms the probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less than 5 percent. The prior Marginal Risk over the Southwest has ended for Day 1. No Moderate or higher.
No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America. NHC reports no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Eastern Pacific, or Central Pacific as of the 800 PM EDT Tropical Weather Outlook. AL93 (non-tropical low off the mid-Atlantic coast) continues with a medium (40%) chance of subtropical development, but remains offshore with no U.S. watches or warnings. Nothing material moved on the tropical lane.
Looking ahead (not Day 1): SPC Day 2 holds an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms across portions of Arizona for Wednesday, with large hail, damaging winds, and tornado potential. WPC Day 2 has a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over the Southwest and Four Corners. Flood Watches are already in effect for much of central and eastern Arizona starting Wednesday. This remains outside the current Day 1 window.
Nothing material has moved to open a Slight or higher severe lane or Moderate or higher flood lane for today. The national picture remains Quiet Pulse for the morning desk.

Live Status

As of this Tuesday morning desk update, October 20, 2026 (approximately 9:12 PM PDT / 12:12 AM EDT October 21 / 0412Z October 21), the national picture is a Quiet Pulse. SPC Day 1 holds no severe thunderstorm areas through tonight. Isolated thunderstorms may continue this evening into tonight across parts of the Desert Southwest and Intermountain West under modest instability, but any severe risk is expected to remain limited and isolated. No convective watches are in effect.

The flood lane is Quiet on Day 1. WPC shows less than 5 percent probability of excessive rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance. Residual river Flood Warnings continue in Florida and Georgia (including moderate stage on the St. Johns near Astor), and winter storm products remain active in Alaska, but these do not meet Moderate or higher excessive rainfall criteria. Coastal and marine products persist along portions of the East Coast in association with the offshore non-tropical low, but these are not inland flash-flood events.

No named tropical cyclone threatens or has just hit U.S. land. The Atlantic, Eastern Pacific, and Central Pacific basins have no tropical cyclones. No U.S. tropical watches or warnings.

Hotspots

Desert Southwest / Intermountain West: Isolated thunderstorms possible this evening into tonight. Transient organization possible earlier, but overall severe threat remains limited. No categorical risk or watches. The higher-end threat arrives Wednesday.

Looking ahead — Arizona and Southwest: SPC Day 2 Enhanced Risk for severe thunderstorms Wednesday across portions of Arizona, including large hail and tornado potential, especially higher terrain and interior areas. WPC Day 2 Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over the Southwest and Four Corners. Flood Watches already issued for much of central and eastern Arizona starting Wednesday morning through Thursday evening. This is the dominant upcoming peril.

Alaska: Multiple Winter Storm Warnings continue for heavy snow, with significant accumulations at higher elevations and travel impacts possible. Outside CONUS focus.

Just-Hit

Overnight and early Tuesday activity was limited. Prior Marginal Risk reports from Monday evening (isolated 1.25-inch hail and wind damage in SE AZ/SW NM) have closed with the risk area. No widespread severe or flash-flood reports noted for the current Day 1 period.

Pulse Table

Lane	Status	Notes (as of ~9:12 PM PDT / 12:12 AM EDT / 0412Z 21 Oct 2026)
Tropical	None	No named systems threatening U.S. land or Gulf. No tropical cyclones in Atlantic, East Pac, or Central Pac. AL93 offshore non-tropical low (40% subtropical chance). No U.S. tropical watches/warnings.
Severe	Quiet	SPC Day 1: No Severe Thunderstorm Areas. Isolated storms possible Desert Southwest but limited threat. No watches. Day 2 Enhanced Risk AZ for Wednesday.
Flood	Quiet	WPC Day 1: probability <5%. Residual river Flood Warnings FL/GA. Day 2 Slight Risk Southwest. Flood Watches already out for AZ starting Wednesday.

Rising Queries

“Flood watch” is rising in U.S. Trends, driven by the Arizona Flood Watches issued ahead of Wednesday’s system. Related searches include Arizona weather, severe storms Arizona, and Phoenix flood watch. Trends for the broader severe risk are building but not yet dominant nationally.

Restoration Read

Quiet Pulse for today. No open Slight or higher severe or Moderate or higher flood lanes on Day 1. The isolated activity possible in the Southwest this evening is expected to remain limited. Standard quiet-day posture applies. Looking ahead one day, the Enhanced severe risk and Slight excessive rainfall risk over Arizona on Wednesday, combined with already-issued Flood Watches, represent the first material increase in restoration potential this week. Monitor local NWS offices (Phoenix, Flagstaff) and SPC/WPC updates. No widespread event is underway today.

What This Is Not

This is a Quiet Pulse. No SPC Slight or higher severe risk on Day 1, no WPC Moderate or higher excessive rainfall on Day 1, and no tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf.

Looking Ahead One Day

Wednesday brings an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms across portions of Arizona, with large hail, damaging winds, and tornado potential, especially over higher terrain and interior areas. WPC Day 2 Slight Risk of excessive rainfall covers the Southwest and Four Corners. Flood Watches are already in effect for much of central and eastern Arizona. This is the dominant near-term concern. No tropical development expected for the U.S. coast or Gulf.

Sources

Previous desk: quiet-pulse-2026-10-19-afternoon
SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
SPC Day 2 Convective Outlook: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html
WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/ero.php
WPC Day 2 Excessive Rainfall Outlook: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/ero.php?day=2
NHC: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
NWS watches/warnings: https://www.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=usa&wwa=all

Informational only — not an official warning. This desk is compiled from official NWS, SPC, WPC, and NHC products for situational awareness only. Always verify the latest local forecasts and warnings at weather.gov before making decisions. Turn around, don’t drown.

October 20, 2026

Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Oct 19

Tropical: None · Severe: Marginal · Flood: Marginal

What Changed

Compared with this morning’s quiet-pulse-2026-10-19-morning pulse table: SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook (latest 0100 UTC / 7:52 PM CDT Monday, October 19, 2026, valid 200100Z–201200Z) holds the Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of southeast Arizona and southwest New Mexico. Isolated severe gusts and hail remain possible this evening under 1000–1500 J/kg SBCAPE and ~40 kt shear. No upgrade to Slight or higher. No convective watches issued.
WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 0051 UTC Tuesday, October 20, 2026 / ~8:51 PM EDT Monday, valid 01Z–12Z Oct 20) confirms a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall for portions of the Southwest (southeast Arizona and southwest New Mexico). Hourly rates of 0.5–1 inch possible in stronger cells, mainly urban and terrain-sensitive areas. Matches the morning desk; no Moderate or higher.
SPC today’s local storm reports (as of the 1200 UTC–1159 UTC page) include 1.25-inch hail 18 N Pirtleville, Cochise County, AZ (2157 UTC), 1.25-inch hail 1 W Deming, Luna County, NM (0010 UTC), downed power lines 5 N Rodeo, Hidalgo County, NM (2235 UTC), and a 77 mph gust 3 NNE Rodeo (2240 UTC). Isolated activity has verified in the Marginal area.
No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America. NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook continues to monitor AL93, a storm-force non-tropical low a few hundred miles off the southeast coast, with low near-term chance of subtropical development. High winds, coastal flooding, and dangerous surf persist along portions of the East Coast. Eastern Pacific Tropical Storm Trudy remains offshore Mexico only and does not threaten the United States. Nothing material moved on the tropical lane.
Nothing material has moved to open a Slight or higher severe lane or Moderate or higher flood lane. The Marginal severe window is expected to close with loss of heating overnight.

Live Status

As of this Monday afternoon desk update, October 19, 2026 (approximately 8:14 PM PDT / 11:14 PM EDT / 0314Z October 20), the national picture remains a Quiet Pulse. The only open severe lane is the small Marginal Risk over southeast Arizona and southwest New Mexico, where scattered thunderstorms have produced isolated large hail and strong wind gusts this evening. Activity is expected to weaken overnight. No Slight Risk, no watches.

Flood lane carries a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall over the same Southwest corridor. Isolated flash flooding is possible this evening in urban areas, burn scars, box canyons, and dry washes, but coverage is limited. Residual river Flood Warnings continue, including moderate stage on the St. Johns River near Astor, Florida. Coastal Flood Warnings, High Surf Advisories, and marine Storm/Gale products remain active along portions of the East Coast in association with the offshore non-tropical low. These are coastal and marine, not inland flash-flood events of Moderate or higher intensity.

No named tropical cyclone threatens or has just hit U.S. land. The Atlantic basin has no tropical cyclones. AL93 may briefly acquire subtropical characteristics later this week but is expected to move northeastward away from the coast. Pacific Tropical Storm Trudy is offshore Mexico only.

Hotspots

Southeast Arizona / Southwest New Mexico: Marginal severe and excessive rainfall risk this evening. Isolated 1.25-inch hail and wind damage (downed lines, 77 mph gust) already reported. Cells moving quickly enough to limit widespread flooding but capable of localized issues on burn scars and in urban/terrain areas.

East Coast coastal waters and shoreline: Storm-force non-tropical low (AL93) driving high winds, very rough seas, coastal flooding, and dangerous surf from the Southeast through the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Marine Storm and Gale Warnings in effect. Not an inland severe or flash-flood event.

Alaska: Multiple Winter Storm Warnings for heavy snow (5–10 inches in valleys, up to 24–36 inches at higher elevations in the Eastern Alaska Range) with gusty winds. Travel impacts possible through mid-week. Outside the CONUS focus but active.

Just-Hit

SPC local storm reports for the current period document 1.25-inch hail near Pirtleville, AZ, and Deming, NM, plus wind damage and a 77 mph gust near Rodeo, NM, all within the Marginal Risk area this evening. No tornado reports. No widespread flash-flood reports noted beyond residual river stages.

Pulse Table

Lane	Status	Notes (as of ~8:14 PM PDT / 11:14 PM EDT / 0314Z 20 Oct 2026)
Tropical	None	No named systems threatening U.S. land or Gulf. AL93 non-tropical low off SE coast (low near-term subtropical chance). Pacific TS Trudy offshore Mexico only. No U.S. tropical watches/warnings.
Severe	Marginal	SPC Day 1 Marginal Risk SE Arizona / SW New Mexico. Isolated hail (1.25″) and wind (77 mph gust, downed lines) reported. No watches. Activity expected to weaken soon.
Flood	Marginal	WPC Day 1 Marginal Risk portions of Southwest (SE AZ/SW NM). Isolated flash flooding possible in urban/terrain areas. Residual river Flood Warnings (St. Johns near Astor FL). Coastal/marine products East Coast. No Moderate or higher ERO.

Rising Queries

Trends unreachable.

Restoration Read

Quiet Pulse overall. The isolated Marginal severe and excessive rainfall potential in southeast Arizona and southwest New Mexico has produced localized hail and wind reports this evening, with possible limited claims, but coverage is small, no watches support a broader response, and the window is closing overnight. Coastal flooding, high surf, and beach erosion along the East Coast warrant monitoring for overwash and access issues, but these are not inland restoration events. Residual river flooding remains minor and stable. Standard quiet-day posture applies. No widespread severe or higher-end flash flood event is underway. Looking ahead, Pacific moisture is expected to increase flood and isolated severe potential over the Southwest mid-week.

What This Is Not

This is a Quiet Pulse. No SPC Slight or higher severe risk, no WPC Moderate or higher excessive rainfall, and no tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf.

Looking Ahead One Day

Tuesday holds no widespread severe threat on current guidance. The Marginal Risk area in the Southwest is expected to diminish overnight. The non-tropical low continues to influence East Coast winds, surf, and coastal flooding into mid-week. No near-term tropical development expected for the U.S. coast or Gulf. Moisture from the Pacific system may begin increasing rain chances later in the week.

Sources

Morning desk: quiet-pulse-2026-10-19-morning
SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
SPC Local Storm Reports: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/today.html
WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/ero.php
NHC Tropical Weather Outlook: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
NWS watches/warnings: https://www.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=usa&wwa=all

October 19, 2026

Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Oct 19 Morning

Tropical: None · Severe: Marginal · Flood: Marginal

What Changed

Compared with the October 19 afternoon desk (quiet-pulse-2026-10-19-afternoon): SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook (latest 0100Z / 7:52 PM CDT Monday, October 19, 2026, valid 200100Z–201200Z) continues the Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of southeast Arizona and southwest New Mexico. Isolated severe gusts and hail remain possible this evening with a small cluster of storms under 1000–1500 J/kg SBCAPE and ~40 kt shear. No upgrade to Slight or higher. No convective watches issued. Activity expected to weaken with loss of heating overnight.
WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 0051 UTC Tuesday, October 20, 2026 / ~8:51 PM EDT Monday, valid 01Z–12Z Oct 20) now carries a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall for portions of the Southwest (southeast Arizona and southwest New Mexico). Hourly rates to 0.5–1 inch possible in stronger cells, mainly urban and terrain-sensitive areas. Previously noted probability less than 5 percent on the afternoon desk. No Moderate or higher.
No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America. NHC continues to monitor AL93, a storm-force non-tropical low a few hundred miles off the southeast coast, with low (20%) chance of subtropical development in 48 hours and medium (40%) in 7 days. High winds, coastal flooding, and dangerous surf persist along portions of the East Coast. Eastern Pacific Tropical Storm Trudy remains offshore Mexico only. Nothing material moved on the tropical lane.
Mesoscale Discussion 2383 (issued ~3 PM CDT) noted watch unlikely; no Mesoscale Discussions currently in effect. No overnight local storm reports of widespread severe or flash flooding outside residual coastal and river concerns. The Marginal severe window is closing.

Live Status

As of this Monday evening update to the morning desk, October 19, 2026 (approximately 8:12 PM PDT / 11:12 PM EDT / 0312Z October 20), the national picture is a Quiet Pulse. The only open severe lane is the small Marginal Risk over southeast Arizona and southwest New Mexico, where scattered thunderstorms may produce isolated hail to around 1.25 inches and gusty winds for a short time longer this evening before weakening. No Slight Risk, no watches.

Flood lane has a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall over the same Southwest corridor on the Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook. Isolated flash flooding is possible this evening in urban areas, burn scars, box canyons, and dry washes where cells train, but coverage remains limited and no Moderate or higher risk is indicated. Residual river Flood Warnings continue in places such as the St. Johns River near Astor, Florida (moderate stage). Coastal Flood Warnings, High Surf Advisories, and marine Storm/Gale products remain active along portions of the East Coast in association with the offshore non-tropical low. These are coastal and marine, not inland flash-flood events of Moderate or higher intensity.

Pulse Table

Lane	Status	Notes (as of ~8:12 PM PDT / 11:12 PM EDT / 0312Z 20 Oct 2026)
Tropical	None	No named systems threatening U.S. land or Gulf. AL93 non-tropical low off SE coast (20%/40% subtropical chance). Pacific TS Trudy offshore Mexico only. No U.S. tropical watches/warnings.
Severe	Marginal	SPC Day 1 Marginal Risk SE Arizona / SW New Mexico. Isolated hail and wind possible this evening. No watches. Activity expected to weaken soon. MD 2383 watch unlikely; none currently in effect.
Flood	Marginal	WPC Day 1 Marginal Risk portions of Southwest (SE AZ/SW NM). Isolated flash flooding possible in urban/terrain areas. Residual river Flood Warnings (St. Johns near Astor FL). Coastal/marine products East Coast. No Moderate or higher ERO.

Rising Queries

Trends unreachable.

Restoration Read

Quiet Pulse overall. The isolated Marginal severe and excessive rainfall potential in southeast Arizona and southwest New Mexico may produce localized hail, wind, or flash-flood claims this evening, but coverage is limited, no watches support a broader response, and the window is closing with nighttime cooling. Coastal flooding, high surf, and beach erosion along the East Coast (particularly Outer Banks into the Mid-Atlantic) warrant monitoring for overwash and access issues, but these are not inland restoration events. Residual river flooding remains minor and stable. Standard quiet-day posture applies. No widespread severe or higher-end flash flood event is underway. Looking ahead, moisture from Pacific Tropical Storm Trudy is expected to increase flood and isolated severe potential over the Southwest mid-week.

What This Is Not

This is a Quiet Pulse. No SPC Slight or higher severe risk, no WPC Moderate or higher excessive rainfall, and no tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf.

October 19, 2026

Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Oct 18

Tropical: None · Severe: Quiet · Flood: Quiet

What Changed

Compared with this morning’s quiet-pulse-2026-10-18-morning desk: SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook (latest 0100Z / 7:44 PM CDT Sunday, October 18, 2026, valid 190100Z–191200Z) continues NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST. Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. through tonight. No convective watches or Mesoscale Discussions valid.
WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (issued ~0100 UTC / 8:57 PM EDT Sunday, October 18, 2026, valid 01Z Mon Oct 19–12Z Mon Oct 19) shows the probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance less than 5 percent. Prior Marginal Risk over southeast Florida has dropped off the Day 1 outlook.
Developing storm-force non-tropical low off the southeast U.S. coast continues. NHC Tropical Weather Outlook gives near 0% chance of subtropical development through 48 hours and ~40% through 7 days. High winds, coastal flooding, and dangerous surf expected along portions of the East Coast. No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America.
No overnight or daytime local storm reports of severe weather (hail, damaging wind, tornado). Residual coastal and marine products remain. Quiet Pulse holds.

Live Status

As of this Sunday afternoon desk, October 18, 2026 (approximately 8:16 PM PDT / 11:16 PM EDT / 0316Z October 19), the national severe picture remains closed. SPC confirms no severe thunderstorm areas through tonight. An upper-level ridge advances into the southern Appalachians while high pressure stays entrenched from the Gulf Coast states to the Northeast, maintaining dry and cool conditions over much of the continental U.S. Isolated thunderstorms remain possible over south Florida and parts of the Desert Southwest, but no severe threat is forecast.

Water concerns are residual and coastal only. WPC Day 1 probability sits below 5%. River Flood Warnings linger in Florida and Georgia from prior rains. Coastal Flood Warnings and high surf continue along the Outer Banks and adjacent East Coast as the non-tropical low maintains elevated seas and onshore flow. No named tropical cyclone threatens U.S. land. Eastern Pacific Hurricane Trudy remains offshore Mexico with no U.S. impact.

Hotspots

Outer Banks / coastal North Carolina and Virginia: Coastal Flood Warnings, high surf, and rip current risk persist under the developing non-tropical low. Onshore flow and elevated seas continue; no inland severe or flash-flood threat.
Southeast Florida residual: Prior Marginal ERO has dropped. Isolated thunderstorms possible but no severe. Residual standing water and urban ponding from earlier rain; river Flood Warnings on St. Johns and Satilla remain.
Desert Southwest: Isolated thunderstorms possible ahead of a weak upper impulse. Limited moisture and instability preclude severe weather. No flood products active.

Just-Hit

No severe weather reports overnight or today. Preliminary LSRs show marine wind gusts near the Florida Keys and residual flood video in Puerto Rico; nothing convective or severe on the mainland. Prior Mid-Atlantic Slight Risk closed days ago.

Pulse Table

Lane	Status	Notes (as of ~8:16 PM PDT / 11:16 PM EDT / 0316Z 19 Oct 2026)
Tropical	None	No named systems threatening U.S. land or Gulf. Non-tropical low off SE coast may acquire subtropical traits (~40% chance later). Pacific Hurricane Trudy offshore Mexico only. No U.S. tropical watches/warnings.
Severe	Quiet	SPC Day 1 (0100Z Oct 19): NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST. No watches or MDs valid. Thunder limited to southern FL and Southwest.
Flood	Quiet	WPC Day 1 probability <5%. Residual river Flood Warnings (St. Johns near Astor FL, Satilla Atkinson GA). Coastal Flood Warnings NC Outer Banks. No Moderate or higher.

Restoration Read

Primary residual ticket is coastal: high surf, beach erosion, and minor coastal flooding along the Outer Banks and adjacent Mid-Atlantic under the non-tropical low. Inland water is limited to lingering river Flood Warnings in north Florida and southeast Georgia from earlier rains. No convective severe restoration window is open. Verify county-level Coastal Flood and High Surf products before any coastal deployment. Turn around, don’t drown on any residual flooded roads.

What This Is Not

This is a Quiet Pulse. No SPC Slight or higher severe risk, no WPC Moderate or higher excessive rainfall, and no tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf. The non-tropical low keeps lower-threshold coastal and marine lanes open only.

Looking Ahead One Day

SPC Day 2 (valid Monday) continues no severe thunderstorm areas. WPC Day 2 probability of excessive rainfall remains low. The non-tropical low is expected to meander off the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic coast, maintaining high surf, rip currents, and coastal flooding potential through mid-week. No named storm development is expected in the short term.

Rising Queries

Trends unreachable.

Sources

Morning desk: quiet-pulse-2026-10-18-morning. Official products: SPC Day 1 Outlook (spc.noaa.gov), WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (wpc.ncep.noaa.gov), NWS watches/warnings (weather.gov), NHC Tropical Weather Discussion and Outlook (nhc.noaa.gov). All claims date-stamped to October 18–19, 2026 products.

Disclaimer: This is an informational desk summary of official NWS/SPC/WPC/NHC products. Always confirm with local NWS offices and weather.gov for site-specific decisions. Not a forecast or warning.

October 18, 2026

Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Oct 18

Tropical: None · Severe: Quiet · Flood: Quiet

What Changed

Compared with this morning’s quiet-pulse-2026-10-18-morning desk: SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook (latest 0100Z / 7:44 PM CDT Sunday, October 18, 2026, valid 190100Z–191200Z) continues NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST. Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. through tonight. No convective watches or Mesoscale Discussions valid.
WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (issued ~0100 UTC / 8:57 PM EDT Sunday, October 18, 2026, valid 01Z Mon Oct 19–12Z Mon Oct 19) shows the probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance less than 5 percent. Prior Marginal Risk over southeast Florida has dropped off the Day 1 outlook.
Developing storm-force non-tropical low off the southeast U.S. coast continues. NHC Tropical Weather Outlook gives near 0% chance of subtropical development through 48 hours and ~40% through 7 days. High winds, coastal flooding, and dangerous surf expected along portions of the East Coast. No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America.
No overnight or daytime local storm reports of severe weather (hail, damaging wind, tornado). Residual coastal and marine products remain. Quiet Pulse holds.

Live Status

Hotspots

Outer Banks / coastal North Carolina and Virginia: Coastal Flood Warnings, high surf, and rip current risk persist under the developing non-tropical low. Onshore flow and elevated seas continue; no inland severe or flash-flood threat.
Southeast Florida residual: Prior Marginal ERO has dropped. Isolated thunderstorms possible but no severe. Residual standing water and urban ponding from earlier rain; river Flood Warnings on St. Johns and Satilla remain.
Desert Southwest: Isolated thunderstorms possible ahead of a weak upper impulse. Limited moisture and instability preclude severe weather. No flood products active.

Just-Hit

Pulse Table

Lane	Status	Notes (as of ~8:16 PM PDT / 11:16 PM EDT / 0316Z 19 Oct 2026)
Tropical	None	No named systems threatening U.S. land or Gulf. Non-tropical low off SE coast may acquire subtropical traits (~40% chance later). Pacific Hurricane Trudy offshore Mexico only. No U.S. tropical watches/warnings.
Severe	Quiet	SPC Day 1 (0100Z Oct 19): NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST. No watches or MDs valid. Thunder limited to southern FL and Southwest.
Flood	Quiet	WPC Day 1 probability <5%. Residual river Flood Warnings (St. Johns near Astor FL, Satilla Atkinson GA). Coastal Flood Warnings NC Outer Banks. No Moderate or higher.

Restoration Read

What This Is Not

Looking Ahead One Day

Rising Queries

Trends unreachable.

Sources

Disclaimer: This is an informational desk summary of official NWS/SPC/WPC/NHC products. Always confirm with local NWS offices and weather.gov for site-specific decisions. Not a forecast or warning.

October 18, 2026

Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Oct 18 Morning

Tropical: None · Severe: Quiet · Flood: Quiet

What Changed

Compared with the October 17 afternoon pulse and earlier versions of this October 18 morning desk: SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook (latest 0100Z / 7:44 PM CDT Sunday, October 18, 2026, valid 190100Z–191200Z) continues NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST. Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. through tonight. No convective watches or Mesoscale Discussions valid as of latest check.
WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 0100 UTC Monday, October 19, 2026 / 8:57 PM EDT Sunday, valid 01Z Mon Oct 19–12Z Mon Oct 19) shows the probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance less than 5 percent. Prior Marginal Risk over southeast Florida has fully dropped off the Day 1 outlook.
Developing storm-force non-tropical low off the southeast U.S. coast continues. NHC Tropical Weather Outlook (800 PM EDT Sunday, October 18, 2026) gives near 0% chance of subtropical development through 48 hours and 40% through 7 days. High winds, coastal flooding, and dangerous surf expected along portions of the East Coast regardless. No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America.
Residual NWS Flood Warnings remain on the St. Johns River (near Astor, FL; minor occurring, moderate forecast) and Satilla River (Atkinson, GA; minor). Coastal Flood Warnings and High Surf Advisories continue for Ocracoke Island and portions of coastal North Carolina through Tuesday.
No overnight or recent local storm reports of severe weather. Quiet Pulse holds; water concerns remain residual river and coastal only.

Live Status

As of this Sunday evening update to the morning desk, October 18, 2026 (approximately 8:14 PM PDT / 11:14 PM EDT / 0314Z October 19), the national severe picture remains closed. SPC confirms no severe thunderstorm areas through tonight. An upper-level ridge moves into the southern Appalachians while high pressure remains entrenched from the Gulf Coast states to the Northeast, keeping dry and cool conditions over much of the continental U.S. Isolated thunderstorms possible over south Florida and parts of the Desert Southwest, but no severe threat.

Excessive rainfall risk has cleared from the Day 1 WPC outlook. Residual river Flood Warnings linger in north-central Florida and southeast Georgia from prior rains. Coastal Flood Warnings, High Surf Advisories, and beach hazards persist along the Outer Banks as the developing non-tropical low offshore maintains elevated seas and onshore flow. No named tropical cyclone threatens U.S. land. Eastern Pacific Hurricane Trudy remains offshore Mexico with all coastal warnings discontinued; no U.S. impact.

Pulse Table

Lane	Status	Notes (as of ~8:14 PM PDT / 11:14 PM EDT / 0314Z 19 Oct 2026)
Tropical	None	No named systems threatening U.S. land or Gulf. Non-tropical low off SE coast may acquire subtropical traits (40% chance later this week). Pacific Hurricane Trudy offshore Mexico only. No U.S. tropical watches/warnings.
Severe	Quiet	SPC Day 1 (0100Z Oct 19): NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST. No watches valid. Thunder limited to southern FL and Southwest. Prior Mid-Atlantic Slight closed.
Flood	Quiet	WPC Day 1 probability <5%. Residual river Flood Warnings (St. Johns near Astor FL, Satilla Atkinson GA). Coastal Flood Warnings NC Outer Banks. No Moderate or higher ERO.

Rising Queries

Trends unreachable.

Restoration Read

Residual river flooding in north-central Florida and southeast Georgia remains a near-term water concern. Coastal flooding, high surf, and beach erosion will continue along the Outer Banks and portions of the East Coast with the developing offshore low into early next week. Wind damage potential (trees, power lines) possible with gusty onshore flow along coastal Florida and the Carolinas. No widespread severe or higher-end flood event is underway. Standard quiet-day posture: monitor residual water and coastal hazards; no new severe or high-end flood tickets expected.

What This Is Not

This is a Quiet Pulse. No SPC Slight or higher severe risk, no WPC Moderate or higher excessive rainfall, and no tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf.

Informational only — not an official warning. Always confirm with the latest official forecasts from weather.gov, spc.noaa.gov, wpc.ncep.noaa.gov, and nhc.noaa.gov.

October 18, 2026