Tag: Georgia

Storm Updates: Isaias Remnants & Rachel — Oct 10 Morning

Tropical: Post-tropical Isaias · TS Watch Rachel · Severe: Slight · Flood: Moderate

What Changed

Isaias is now a post-tropical cyclone near 32.8N 86.8W as of the 10:00 AM CDT NHC final advisory, about 50 miles south of Birmingham, Alabama, moving NNW at 10 mph with maximum sustained winds of 35 mph. All tropical warnings discontinued; WPC continues flood tracking.
SPC Day 1 Slight Risk has shifted eastward from the Panhandle/Big Bend to eastern Georgia into western and southern South Carolina for a tornado threat this afternoon into evening. No convective watches currently in effect.
WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook holds a Moderate Risk for the Southern Appalachians (northeast Georgia into western North Carolina and Upstate South Carolina) and portions of Southern California, down from yesterday’s High near the landfall corridor.
Tropical Storm Rachel is approaching with a Tropical Storm Watch for the Southern California coast from the U.S./Mexico border to the San Diego/Orange County line. Center near 25.5N 119.6W as of 8:00 AM PDT, 520 miles SSW of San Diego, moving NE at 22 mph with 60 mph winds.
Overnight and morning Flash Flood Warnings were active in parts of coastal South Carolina and north-central Georgia. No new NHC hurricane or storm-surge warnings for U.S. land.

Live Status

As of Saturday morning, October 10, 2026, Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias continues north-northwest across central Alabama. The primary organized threats have shifted to residual heavy rainfall and isolated tornadoes on the eastern side of the circulation, plus the approaching Tropical Storm Rachel on the West Coast. SPC’s 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook maintains a Slight Risk from eastern Georgia into southern and eastern South Carolina. A couple of tornadoes are possible today over that corridor. WPC’s Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 0748 UTC) holds Moderate Risk across the Southern Appalachians and over portions of Southern California. No tropical storm or hurricane warnings remain for the U.S. Gulf or Atlantic coast.

Hotspot 1 — Eastern Georgia into Western/Southern South Carolina

SPC Slight Risk covers roughly 34,500 square miles and about 3.5 million people, including Savannah, Columbia, Charleston, North Charleston, and Mount Pleasant. Midday analysis places the remnant circulation over central Alabama with a warm front extending eastward to the South Carolina coast. Destabilization in the warm sector supports scattered storms this afternoon. Enlarged hodographs support storm-scale rotation. A couple of tornadoes are possible primarily during the diurnal heating cycle. A Marginal Risk continues tonight as the warm front advances northward, though uncertainty is high.

Restoration read: tornado swaths remain narrow. Staff as local surveys. Damaging wind gusts are possible with stronger cells. The broader water ticket is the continuing rain bands.

Hotspot 2 — Southern Appalachians

WPC Moderate Risk targets upslope regions from northeast Georgia into the Upstate of South Carolina and western North Carolina. Strong upslope flow with residual Isaias moisture supports heavy precip totals in the 3–5 inch range, with maximum totals of 6–10 inches possible across far western North Carolina into the Upstate of South Carolina. HREF and RRFS show high probabilities for 2-, 3-, and 5-inch amounts. Coastal Carolinas retain potential for isolated 5+ inch totals from coastal convergence. Flash flooding, landslides, and river rises are the primary concerns.

Restoration read: this is the main freshwater flood desk today. Wet drywall, extraction, and structural issues from saturated soils. Prioritize high-terrain and poor-drainage areas. Turn around, don’t drown.

Hotspot 3 — Southern California and Rachel

Tropical Storm Rachel is moving northeast at 22 mph toward northern Baja California and the Southern California border. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the Southern California coast from the U.S./Mexico border northward to the San Diego/Orange County line. WPC Moderate Risk covers portions of Southern California as anomalous moisture is drawn northeast. 1–3 inches, locally higher, are forecast, increasing flash and urban flood potential tonight into Sunday. SPC maintains a Marginal Risk for a few severe wind gusts and low-end tornado potential in the Lower Colorado River Valley into south-central Arizona as the system interacts with shear and moisture. Life-threatening surf and rip currents continue.

Restoration read: urban flooding and wind damage over higher terrain are the tickets. Coastal impacts are primarily surf and minor flooding rather than surge. No widespread structural wind damage expected from tropical-storm-force winds.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS / WPC level	Status this morning
Central Alabama / Isaias center	Residual heavy rain, gusty wind	Post-tropical 35 mph; NHC final advisory	Inland NNW at 10 mph
Eastern GA / western & southern SC	Brief tornadoes, damaging wind	SPC Slight	Active this afternoon into evening
Southern Appalachians (NE GA / W NC / Upstate SC)	Flash flood, 3–10 in possible	WPC Moderate ERO	Upslope heavy rain ongoing
Southern California coast / SW	Heavy rain, TS winds possible, surf	TS Watch; WPC Moderate ERO	Rachel approaching tonight
Desert Southwest / AZ	Severe wind gusts, isolated tornado	SPC Marginal	Increasing with Rachel interaction

What this means for restoration teams

Primary exposure is flash flooding and landslides in the Southern Appalachians from residual Isaias moisture, plus isolated tornado and wind damage in the eastern Georgia / South Carolina Slight Risk zone. In Southern California and the Desert Southwest, Rachel drives urban and flash flooding, strong winds over higher terrain, and coastal surf impacts tonight into Sunday. No widespread hurricane-force wind or storm-surge damage is expected on U.S. land from current systems. Claims will be water-dominant with localized wind/tornado tickets. Stage extraction crews for the Appalachians and monitor San Diego for tonight’s rain onset.

Rising queries

huracán isaias
post-tropical cyclone isaias
tropical storm rachel
Isaias flood Appalachians
Rachel San Diego

Storm Hubs

Isaias 2026: Hurricane Isaias 2026

Rachel 2026: Tropical Storm Rachel 2026

Sources

SPC Day 1 Outlook 1630 UTC 10 October 2026. WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (0748 UTC / 426 AM EDT). NHC Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias final advisory (10:00 AM CDT). NHC Tropical Storm Rachel Advisory 54 (8:00 AM PDT). NWS WWA summary. Previous desk: Storm Updates: Isaias Landfall Destin — Oct 9.

Informational only — not an official warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

October 10, 2026

Storm Updates: Isaias Remnants & Rachel — Oct 10

Tropical: Post-Tropical Isaias · Post-Tropical Rachel (TS Watch) · Severe: Marginal · Flood: Moderate

What changed

Tornado Watch 679 expired at 8:00 p.m. EDT. SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook (0100 UTC / 7:57 p.m. CDT) dropped to Marginal Risk for isolated tornado threat this evening across the Carolinas and a few severe wind gusts in the Desert Southwest. No convective watches remain valid.
Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias as of WPC/NHC Public Advisory 18 at 10:00 p.m. CDT Saturday, October 10, 2026, is near 35.0N 86.7W, moving northeast at 16 mph with maximum sustained winds of 25 mph and minimum pressure 1009 mb. Position advanced well north of the Birmingham area reported earlier; flood threat continues into the Tennessee Valley and Southern Appalachians.
Post-Tropical Cyclone Rachel as of NHC Advisory 56 at 8:00 p.m. PDT is near 30.0N 116.5W, about 40 miles west of Punta Baja, Mexico, and 190 miles south of San Diego, moving north-northeast at 36 mph with maximum sustained winds of 60 mph and pressure 987 mb. Now classified post-tropical; Tropical Storm Watch continues for the Southern California coast from the U.S./Mexico border to the San Diego/Orange County line. Expected to move onshore over northern Baja tonight.
WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 2331 UTC) maintains Moderate Risk across the Southern Appalachians (northeast Georgia into Upstate South Carolina and western North Carolina) and portions of Southern California. Upslope totals of 3–5+ inches with local 6–10 inches still possible; southern California rain increasing with Rachel moisture.
Active Flash Flood Warnings are in effect for portions of western North Carolina (including Lake Lure / Chimney Rock area in Buncombe, Henderson, Rutherford counties) and central South Carolina (Aiken, Edgefield, Lexington, Saluda). Severe Thunderstorm Warnings for 60 mph wind gusts are active in southern Arizona (Pima, Pinal, Yuma counties) associated with Rachel moisture.

Live status

As of Saturday evening, October 10, 2026 (around 8:00 p.m. PDT / 11:00 p.m. EDT), Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias continues northeast across central Tennessee toward the Tennessee Valley while weakening. The primary organized threat has shifted to residual heavy rainfall and flash flooding, especially upslope into the Southern Appalachians. SPC notes scattered convection with an isolated tornado threat this evening across parts of the Carolinas along the eastern flank, supported by strong low-level shear, though the Slight Risk and Tornado Watch have expired. WPC Moderate excessive rainfall covers the Southern Appalachians and portions of Southern California.

Post-Tropical Cyclone Rachel is accelerating north-northeast toward northern Baja California and is forecast to move onshore tonight before dissipating early Sunday. Tropical Storm Watch remains for extreme Southern California coastal areas. Moisture from Rachel is driving increasing rainfall and thunderstorms across the Desert Southwest, with Moderate flash flood risk on far southern California and isolated severe wind gusts possible in southern Arizona.

Hotspots

Southern Appalachians (northeast Georgia, Upstate South Carolina, western North Carolina): Primary flood hotspot under the WPC Moderate Risk. Strong upslope flow continues to support heavy precip totals of 3–5+ inches, with maximums of 6–10 inches possible across far western North Carolina into the Upstate of South Carolina. Flash Flood Warnings are active near Lake Lure and Chimney Rock; additional minor flooding and isolated landslides remain possible overnight. Flood Watches cover much of the region.

Carolinas (eastern Georgia residual into South Carolina and southern North Carolina): SPC Marginal Risk for isolated tornado threat this evening with rotating cells in the moist airmass east of the Isaias remnants. Strong low-level shear supports brief tornadoes with semi-discrete cells, mainly across the eastern half of South Carolina into southern North Carolina. Flash Flood Warnings continue in central South Carolina. Threat diminishes overnight as the system moves northeast.

Southern California coast and Desert Southwest: Tropical Storm Watch remains on the San Diego County coastal areas. WPC Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall covers portions of Southern California as Rachel moisture is drawn northeastward; probabilities of 2+ inches highest in far southern California overnight. Burn scars, dry washes, and urban areas most at risk. Severe Thunderstorm Warnings for 60 mph wind gusts are active in southern Arizona. Rachel expected onshore tonight.

Just-hit

Isaias made landfall near Destin, Florida, Friday evening as a Category 2 hurricane with 105 mph winds before rapidly transitioning to post-tropical and weakening across the Florida Panhandle into Alabama and now Tennessee. Residual flash flooding and wind damage occurred Friday night into Saturday. Tornado Watch 679 produced confirmed tornadoes in Screven County, Georgia, and Allendale County, South Carolina, before expiring. Rachel remains offshore with no U.S. landfall yet; the center is expected to approach the Baja/border region tonight. Active Flash Flood Warnings and Severe Thunderstorm Warnings are ongoing.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS / WPC level	Status this evening
Southern Appalachians (NE GA / Upstate SC / W NC)	Flash flood, landslides, 3–10 in upslope	WPC Moderate excessive rainfall; active FFWs	Live, ongoing overnight
Carolinas (E SC / S NC)	Isolated tornadoes, residual heavy rain	SPC Marginal (tornado)	Evening threat, diminishing overnight
Southern California coast / Desert Southwest	Heavy rain, flash flood, TS winds possible, severe wind gusts	WPC Moderate; TS Watch (San Diego coastal); active SVR in AZ	Rachel approaching; increasing tonight
Central TN / Isaias center	Residual heavy rain, gusty wind	Post-tropical 25 mph	Inland NE at 16 mph, weakening
Rest of CONUS	No other organized severe	Marginal only in noted areas; no watches	Quiet elsewhere

Restoration read

Primary restoration exposure is flash flooding and potential landslides in the Southern Appalachians from residual Isaias moisture under the Moderate Risk, plus localized tornado and wind damage tickets from earlier in the Georgia–South Carolina zone. In Southern California and the Desert Southwest, Rachel will drive urban and flash flooding, strong winds, and coastal surf impacts overnight into Sunday. No widespread hurricane-force wind or storm-surge damage expected on U.S. land from current systems. Claims will be water-dominant with localized wind/tornado tickets. Sequence water extraction after the heaviest rates pass; do not stage in active flood or warning zones.

What this is not

This is not an active landfalling hurricane or tropical-storm warning on the U.S. Gulf or Atlantic coast. Isaias is post-tropical and inland; all tropical warnings have been discontinued. Rachel is post-tropical with a Tropical Storm Watch for extreme Southern California, not a hurricane or storm-surge warning. Severe risk is Marginal, not Slight or higher, and no convective watches are valid. The organized hazards are the WPC Moderate excessive-rainfall risks in the Southern Appalachians and Southern California, residual isolated tornado threat in the Carolinas, and severe wind gusts in southern Arizona.

Looking ahead one day

Sunday (Day 2): SPC holds a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over portions of the Mid-Atlantic (North Carolina, Virginia, southeast Maryland) for a few tornadoes and damaging wind gusts as the Isaias remnants continue northeast. Heavy rain and flash flood potential persist in the Appalachians. Rachel is expected to move inland over northern Baja and the southwestern United States tonight, bringing continued heavy rain, flash flooding, and strong winds to the Southwest and Great Basin before dissipating early Sunday. Isaias remnants are forecast to continue weakening.

Rising queries

huracán isaias
isaias remnants flood
tropical storm Rachel San Diego
post-tropical Rachel
Southern Appalachians flash flood

Storm hubs

Isaias 2026 hub: Hurricane Isaias 2026

Rachel 2026 hub: Tropical Storm Rachel 2026

Sources

SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook 0100 UTC 11 October 2026 (Marginal Risk Carolinas and Desert Southwest). WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook and Discussion (2331 UTC, Moderate Risk Southern Appalachians and Southern California). NHC/WPC Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias Advisory 18 (10:00 p.m. CDT). NHC Post-Tropical Cyclone Rachel Advisory 56 (8:00 p.m. PDT). Active NWS Flash Flood Warnings (Greenville-Spartanburg, Columbia) and Severe Thunderstorm Warnings (Tucson, Phoenix). Morning desk: Storm Updates: Isaias Remnants & Rachel — Oct 10 Morning.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

October 10, 2026

Storm Updates: Isaias Slight Tornado Risk, Gulf Landfall Tonight — Friday, October 9, 2026 (Morning)

This is the Friday morning Storm Tracker desk for October 9, 2026. Overnight into this morning the organized severe window moved from a small Iowa hail threat to the northern Gulf Coast. The Storm Prediction Center 1300 UTC Day 1 convective outlook, issued 7:57 a.m. CDT, places a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms across northern Florida, southeast Alabama, and southwest Georgia. The driver is Hurricane Isaias, still offshore. No convective watches are valid. The Weather Prediction Center holds a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall over southern Alabama, the Florida Panhandle, and southwest Georgia.

Isaias has not made U.S. landfall. National Hurricane Center Intermediate Advisory 11A, corrected, at 7:00 a.m. CDT places the center near 27.0N 87.7W, about 245 miles south of Pensacola and about 170 miles south-southeast of the Mouth of the Mississippi River. Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph, movement north-northeast near 15 mph, minimum pressure 958 mb. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles. NHC says Isaias is on the cusp of major-hurricane strength, is likely to become a major hurricane this morning, and is expected to remain a dangerous hurricane at landfall this evening or tonight inside the warning area. Preparations in the storm-surge and hurricane warning areas should be completed within the next few hours.

These remain county- and ZIP-scale hazards until the core comes ashore. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll. Conditions change with the next advisory.

What is live this morning

SPC lists no convective watches currently valid. The watch board’s most recent number, Severe Thunderstorm Watch 676, was a west-central Texas watch from the afternoon of September 30 and expired at midnight CDT that night. It is not a live product. The next Day 1 outlook is scheduled by 1630 UTC. Tornado potential is forecast to increase this afternoon and continue tonight, especially across the Florida Panhandle into southeast Alabama and southwest Georgia, as eastern rainbands spread north and low-level winds and storm-relative helicity strengthen. SPC also notes some enhancement to the wind field, including a convective influence, across southern Alabama near the evolving inverted surface trough late this afternoon into tonight.

The Slight Risk area covers about 25,034 square miles and roughly 1.97 million people. Larger centers named by SPC include Tallahassee, Dothan, Pensacola, Valdosta, and Panama City. The surrounding Marginal Risk covers about 42,289 square miles and roughly 3.98 million people, with larger centers including Jacksonville, Mobile, Savannah, Gainesville, and Albany. NHC tornado language is narrower in time: a tornado risk beginning late this afternoon and continuing tonight in coastal Alabama, the Florida Panhandle, and far southwest Georgia, then continuing Saturday across parts of eastern Alabama, the Florida Panhandle, Georgia, and the Carolinas.

Tropical warnings are the live watch equivalent this morning. A Storm Surge Warning runs from the Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Suwannee River. A Hurricane Warning runs from Ocean Springs, Mississippi, to the Bay/Gulf County line in Florida. Tropical Storm Warnings cover the Jefferson/Plaquemines Parish line in Louisiana to west of Ocean Springs, and the Florida coast east of the Bay/Gulf County line to the Aucilla River. A Storm Surge Watch continues from the Suwannee River to Yankeetown, Florida. Intermediate Advisory 11A corrected the surge values. If the peak coincides with high tide, water could reach 6 to 9 feet above ground from the Alabama/Florida border to Grayton Beach; 4 to 6 feet from Dauphin Island to the Alabama/Florida border and in Mobile Bay; 4 to 7 feet from Grayton Beach to Indian Pass; 4 to 6 feet from Indian Pass to the Steinhatchee River; 3 to 5 feet from Steinhatchee to the Suwannee and from the Mouth of the Mississippi to Dauphin Island; and 2 to 4 feet from the Suwannee to Yankeetown.

Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning tonight into early Saturday, with tropical storm conditions beginning later today. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning areas beginning in the next few hours from the 7:00 a.m. CDT advisory.

Overnight into this morning

The convective day that closed at 1159 UTC this morning did not produce a tornado or wind report on the SPC filtered log. It did produce hail. The overnight reports sit on yesterday’s Iowa Marginal Risk, not on the Gulf. SPC lists 1.00-inch hail 2 miles south of Sioux Center, Iowa, at 0226 UTC; 1.50-inch hail at Panora in Guthrie County at 0237 UTC; 1.00-inch hail at Orange City; 1.00-inch hail at Redfield in Dallas County at 0305 UTC; 1.50-inch hail at Ireton; 1.25-inch hail at Wall Lake in Sac County at 0320 UTC; 1.50-inch hail at Cherokee at 0337 UTC; 1.25-inch hail west of Norwalk in Warren County at 0401 UTC; 1.50-inch hail at Alcester in Union County, South Dakota, at 0532 UTC; and a measured 1.00-inch hail on the 200 block of Lloyd Street in Lake City, Calhoun County, at 0552 UTC. Those are preliminary local storm reports. They are the just-hit record from last night. They are not a continuing Iowa watch.

Thursday evening flash-flood products on the national summary were short-fused and have expired for this desk. Jacksonville issued a flash flood warning for east-central Nassau County, including Fernandina Beach, Yulee, and Amelia City, at 5:19 p.m. EDT Thursday, with 2 to 4 inches already down and another 1 to 2 inches possible, until 7:00 p.m. EDT. Honolulu issued a flash flood warning for Oahu at 10:21 a.m. HST Thursday after water over Kamehameha Highway on the North Shore, until 1:15 p.m. HST. Neither is a live warning this morning. Storm-surge warnings on the northern Gulf Coast from Thursday evening remain the standing coastal product and match the NHC warning.

Water pulse

WPC’s Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, updated 0825 UTC and discussed at 4:28 a.m. EDT, keeps a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall in southern Alabama, the Florida Panhandle, and southwest Georgia, valid 12 UTC Friday through 12 UTC Saturday. WPC says numerous instances of flash flooding are likely, some significant, and that the outlook is consistent with the previous forecast. Heavier rain rates ramp up closer to landfall and after, as the strongest instability in the southeast quadrant reaches the coast. The flash-flood threat should increase markedly from late Friday afternoon into Friday night.

Two corridors matter. Inner-core and eyewall rain is the coastal problem in southern Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle, highest closest to the coast. Farther east, a training band along the instability gradient can sit about 200 miles east of the landfall point. WPC says that band has better access to instability and deep tropical moisture, can produce double-digit totals of 10 inches or more if it trains, and may hold the event maximum. The Moderate Risk was nudged slightly east, including the chance the band sets up east of Tallahassee at times, and extended into southwest Georgia at least 100 miles inland. Inland along the track into eastern Mississippi and central Alabama stays at Slight for now, because shear is increasing and the inland flash-flood reach depends on whether the core holds together. NHC rainfall through the weekend is 4 to 8 inches across southern Alabama, the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend, and southwest Georgia, with localized totals up to 15 inches in banding across the Panhandle and Big Bend. Much of the rest of the Southeast is forecast at 2 to 5 inches, with localized amounts up to 10 inches possible in the southern Appalachians and coastal Carolinas. River flooding is also expected, some of it significant.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS level	Status this morning
Northern Gulf Coast (MS / AL / FL Panhandle)	Hurricane wind, storm surge, heavy rain tonight	Hurricane Warning; Storm Surge Warning; NHC Advisory 11A	Warnings up; center still offshore
FL Panhandle / SE Alabama / SW Georgia	Tornado in outer bands; damaging wind near the trough	SPC Slight; tornado risk late today into tonight	Live outlook, no convective watch
East of landfall, Big Bend into SW Georgia	Training rain, flash flood, local 10–15 inches	WPC Moderate excessive rainfall	Ramp late afternoon into tonight
Eastern Mississippi / central Alabama	Inland rain along the track if the core holds	WPC Slight	Track-dependent
Iowa / southeast South Dakota	Hail to 1.50 inches overnight	Yesterday’s Marginal; reports only	Expired overnight pulse
Rest of the CONUS severe map	No general thunderstorm watch	No convective watch valid	Quiet outside the Gulf corridor

Restoration read

This morning is still a prep window, and it is closing. The first exposure on the northern Gulf Coast is life-safety surge and wind, not a ticket count. Hurricane-force wind is a small radius, about 30 miles from the center, so structural wind damage will be concentrated near the landfall point inside the hurricane warning from Ocean Springs to the Bay/Gulf County line. Tropical-storm-force wind reaches much farther, out to about 185 miles, and that is the power, tree, and soft-roof radius that will show up well away from the eye. Surge of 6 to 9 feet above ground, if it verifies from the Alabama/Florida border to Grayton Beach, is the coastal floor and marina problem. It is not a uniform flood across the whole warning.

Water is the broader restoration pulse, and it is offset from the center. WPC is explicit that the training band east of landfall, on the order of 200 miles east, can hold the rainfall maximum. Crews that staff only the landfall pin will miss the flash-flood ground in the Florida Big Bend, around Tallahassee, and into southwest Georgia. Saturated roads, underpasses, and small creeks are the overnight into Saturday problem. River flooding follows. Iowa hail is a closed overnight note: roof and vehicle checks in Guthrie, Sioux, Sac, Cherokee, Dallas, Warren, and Calhoun counties, and at Alcester, South Dakota, not a new dispatch.

Do not treat a Slight Risk as a watch. SPC has not issued a tornado watch yet. The tornado window in NHC language opens late this afternoon in coastal Alabama, the Panhandle, and far southwest Georgia. If a watch goes up on the 1630 UTC outlook cycle, that is the afternoon desk’s update, not a fact this morning.

Looking ahead

Landfall is forecast tonight or early Saturday inside the hurricane warning. After landfall, gusty winds are expected well inland over the Southeast as the wind field grows in the trough interaction. Saturday’s tornado threat shifts across eastern Alabama, the Florida Panhandle, Georgia, and the Carolinas. Rain of 2 to 5 inches, locally 10, reaches the southern Appalachians and coastal Carolinas through the weekend. The next complete NHC advisory is scheduled for 10:00 a.m. CDT. The next SPC Day 1 outlook is scheduled by 1630 UTC.

Sources

SPC Day 1 convective outlook, 1300 UTC, issued 7:57 a.m. CDT Friday, October 9, 2026: spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
SPC current watches, updated 11:40 UTC, no watches valid: spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/
SPC storm reports for the convective day ending 1159 UTC October 9: spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/today.html
WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, updated 0825 UTC Friday: wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/ero.php
NHC Hurricane Isaias Intermediate Advisory 11A, corrected, 7:00 a.m. CDT: nhc.noaa.gov
NWS watches, warnings, and advisories summary: weather.gov/wwamap
Prior desk, Thursday afternoon, October 8, 2026: Storm Updates: Gulf Isaias Warnings, Florida and Iowa Marginal

Disclaimer

This is a morning snapshot from official National Weather Service, Storm Prediction Center, Weather Prediction Center, and National Hurricane Center products. It is not a warning, not a watch, and not a substitute for local emergency management. Hurricane, storm-surge, tropical-storm, tornado, and flash-flood products can be issued or canceled between desk cycles. Check weather.gov and hurricanes.gov for the county or ZIP before you travel or stage.

October 9, 2026

Storm Updates: Florida Marginal Flood, Quiet Severe Pulse — Tuesday, October 6, 2026 (Morning)

This is the Tuesday morning Storm Tracker desk for October 6, 2026. Overnight into this morning the organized severe window stayed closed. The Storm Prediction Center 1300 UTC Day 1 convective outlook, updated 7:45 a.m. CDT by Guyer and Dean and valid 1300 UTC Tuesday through 1200 UTC Wednesday, carries no severe thunderstorm areas. The summary line is short: organized severe thunderstorms are unlikely today. The restoration ticket is water on a sagging Florida front, not a watch box. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What is live this morning

No convective watches are currently valid. SPC’s watch page, updated 13:20 UTC Tuesday, lists none. The most recently issued watch is still Severe Thunderstorm Watch 676. No mesoscale discussion is driving a severe box this morning. SPC’s storm-report page for the new convective day, 1200 UTC Tuesday through 1159 UTC Wednesday, shows no tornado, hail, or wind reports received. The prior convective day, 1200 UTC Monday through 1159 UTC Tuesday, also closed with no tornado, hail, or wind reports.

The only severe note on the Day 1 discussion is the central Florida Peninsula. Showers and some thunderstorms are common early today near a residual front from the northern Gulf to the north-central Peninsula. A weak surface low is expected to develop over the northeast Gulf, and some guidance advertises an increase in low- and mid-level flow late today into tonight. Early wind profiles are otherwise weak. The 12z Tampa Bay sounding is the reference. Shear-optimistic scenarios could support brief, transient rotation offshore. Destabilization inland is questionable: thin CAPE and poor mid-level lapse rates, about 5 to 5.5 C/km. SPC kept that below a probability. The next Day 1 outlook is scheduled by 1630 UTC.

Watches that expired overnight versus what is still live

Nothing convective expired overnight because nothing convective was valid. The 0100 UTC Day 1 outlook, written by Squitieri at 7:47 p.m. CDT Monday, already said organized severe thunderstorms were not forecast through tonight, with showers and thunderstorms continuing from the Gulf Coast into the Florida Peninsula and only isolated lightning possible over the Great Basin, southern Colorado and northern New Mexico, and the Upper Mississippi Valley.

The product that did expire was a flood warning, not a watch. National Weather Service Tallahassee issued a Flood Warning for Gadsden County in the Big Bend at 1:53 a.m. EDT, in effect until 5:00 a.m. EDT. At 1:51 a.m. EDT, Doppler radar indicated light rain remaining, with flooding already occurring. Between 7 and 11 inches had fallen, and another half inch to an inch was possible. Towns named in the polygon included Quincy, Midway, Havana, Greensboro, Gretna, Santa Clara, and Quincy Airport. That warning is off the board this morning.

A Special Marine Warning from Tallahassee at 2:48 a.m. CDT covered waters from the Okaloosa-Walton county line to Mexico Beach, 20 to 60 nautical miles offshore, until 4:45 a.m. CDT. Radar indicated a nearly stationary severe thunderstorm 24 nautical miles southeast of Okaloosa Deep Water Reef, or 29 nautical miles southwest of Panama City Beach, capable of waterspouts and gusts of 34 knots or greater. The text said the storm would remain over mainly open waters. That marine warning has expired. It is not a land tornado report, and SPC logged none.

What is still live is a Flood Watch, not a convective watch. National Weather Service Jacksonville at 1:12 a.m. EDT put a Flood Watch in effect from 10 a.m. EDT this morning through this evening for portions of northeast Florida and southeast Georgia. The Florida zones include coastal and inland Duval, coastal and inland Nassau, coastal and inland Flagler, eastern Clay, eastern Putnam, and coastal and inland St. Johns. Georgia coverage is coastal and inland Camden County. Named cities run from Jacksonville, Fernandina Beach, Yulee, and St. Augustine to Palatka, Palm Coast, Orange Park, Kingsland, and Woodbine. The watch calls for heavy rainbands off the Atlantic and locally 3 to 5 inches through the afternoon and early evening.

Hotspot 1 — Florida and far southeastern Georgia

This is the only excessive-rainfall polygon on the Weather Prediction Center Day 1 map. The outlook was updated 0821 UTC Tuesday, valid 12 UTC Tuesday through 12 UTC Wednesday. Wegman’s discussion at 4:30 a.m. EDT keeps a Marginal Risk for much of Florida and far southeastern Georgia. A very slow front sags south from Georgia and Alabama into north Florida. Dry, cool air sits north of it. A tropical, moisture-rich air mass sits south of it. WPC expects a widespread 1 to 3 inches over much of north Florida, with slow-moving tropical showers and embedded thunderstorms. Soils are saturated from prior days. The risk stays Marginal because the terrain is flat, rainfall rates are limited by marginal instability, and swampy ground should handle most of the rain. The isolated flood threat is aimed at urban and poor-drainage spots. Training cells can still produce more widely scattered flash flooding, hit and miss.

That is a step down from Monday afternoon, when the lower Texas coast still carried a small Marginal after a Slight was dropped, and a Marginal still covered the Florida Panhandle, northern and central Florida, and eastern Georgia. This morning the Texas coast is off the Day 1 excessive-rainfall map. Florida holds the ticket.

Restoration read: Gadsden County is the just-hit water desk. Quincy, Havana, and Midway are the towns named in a warning that expired before dawn, with 7 to 11 inches already indicated. Treat interior water found this morning as last night’s rain. The day work is the Jacksonville Flood Watch corridor if Atlantic rainbands sit on Jacksonville, Fernandina Beach, St. Augustine, or Kingsland. Staff pumps and drying equipment for poor drainage. Do not staff it as wind or hail. A Marginal excessive-rain risk is not a Slight severe risk.

Hotspot 2 — leftover river water, not a new pulse

River products already on the board are not the same as a flash-flood warning. National Weather Service St. Louis at 11:32 p.m. CDT Monday kept minor flooding on the Mississippi River at Louisiana, Missouri, stage 15.1 feet against a 15.0-foot flood stage, in effect until Wednesday afternoon, with a fall below flood stage expected this morning. The Missouri River near Chamois remains under a flood warning until Tuesday evening; the Monday morning stage was 17.0 feet at a 17.0-foot flood stage. National Weather Service Kansas City extended a flood warning for the Missouri River at Miami until Wednesday morning, with a fall below the 18.0-foot flood stage expected late this morning.

National Weather Service Quad Cities at 8:14 p.m. CDT Monday extended several Iowa warnings. The Wapsipinicon River near De Witt was at 12.0 feet against an 11.0-foot flood stage, with moderate flooding occurring and a crest of 12.7 feet forecast early Thursday; that warning runs until Monday afternoon, October 12. The Cedar River near Conesville was at 13.5 feet against 13.0, until late Thursday night. The Iowa River was in minor flood at Oakville, Wapello, and Marengo. National Weather Service Mobile holds a flood warning for the Shoal River near Crestview, in effect from Tuesday evening to late Thursday night, with a forecast rise above the 8.0-foot flood stage this evening to a crest of 8.2 feet early Wednesday. The St. Mary’s River at Macclenny, on the Florida-Georgia line, was at 12.7 feet Monday evening against a 12.0-foot flood stage, with a crest of 13.0 feet expected this evening and a warning until Thursday evening. National Weather Service Key West continues a coastal flood statement for the Florida Keys through Tuesday evening for minor saltwater flooding of low streets at high tide.

Restoration read: these are channel and tide tickets from earlier rain, not this morning’s convective pulse. Iowa river bottoms and the Shoal River rise are separate from the Florida front. Do not fold them into a severe claim.

Quiet severe pulse and the Gulf note

There is no Plains or Midwest severe desk this morning. The overnight outlook had surface high pressure setting in from the Great Lakes to the East Coast as an upper trough ejected into the Atlantic. Isolated thunderstorms were the only non-Florida convective note, and they did not produce logged wind, hail, or tornado reports.

Tropics are not a named U.S. land desk this morning. No named cyclone is threatening the mainland or is on the coast from an overnight landfall. The National Hurricane Center 8:00 a.m. EDT Tropical Weather Outlook says showers and thunderstorms are organizing with a broad low over the southwestern Gulf of America, tagged AL92. A tropical depression is anticipated over the next day or so while it drifts east. Formation chances are 90 percent through 48 hours and 90 percent through 7 days. NHC says the disturbance is expected to turn north or northeast toward the northern Gulf Coast by the end of the week, and that it is too early for specific impacts. Interests from the Florida Panhandle to Louisiana should monitor it. A NOAA Gulfstream flight is scheduled later today and an Air Force reconnaissance flight tomorrow. That is a development note, not a landfall warning and not a named-storm file. The tropical-storm language on the national watch page overnight was an eastern Pacific offshore-Mexico waters forecast, not a Gulf Coast product.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / WPC / NWS level	Status this morning
North Florida / far SE Georgia	Training rain, urban flood	WPC Marginal; no SPC severe area	Live; 1–3 inches, locally more
NE Florida / Camden County GA	Atlantic rainbands	JAX Flood Watch 10 a.m.–evening EDT	Live; locally 3–5 inches
Gadsden County FL (Quincy, Havana)	Just-hit flood	Warning expired 5 a.m. EDT	Aftermath; 7–11 inches indicated
Offshore Panama City Beach	Waterspout, marine gusts	Special Marine Warning expired 4:45 a.m. CDT	Open water; no land LSR
Central Florida Peninsula	Storms on residual front	No severe probability	Rotation threat kept offshore
Iowa rivers (Wapsipinicon, Cedar, Iowa)	Minor to moderate river flood	Flood warnings into late week	In channel, not a new pulse
Mississippi at Louisiana MO; Missouri River	Minor river flood	Flood warnings	Near or falling through flood stage
Shoal River near Crestview; St. Mary’s at Macclenny	River rise	Flood warnings	Crests tonight into Wednesday
Florida Keys	Minor saltwater flooding	Coastal flood statement through evening	High-tide streets
Southwestern Gulf (AL92)	Possible tropical depression	NHC 90% / 90%; not named	Monitor; not a land file yet

What this means for restoration teams

There is no wind or hail box to stage against. The morning work, if it is already inside a building, is Gadsden County water from a warning that expired before dawn. The day work is extraction timing if rainbands sit on the Jacksonville watch corridor, plus any poor-drainage street in north Florida that does not clear under the Marginal. Photograph standing water only if the road is clear. Turn around, don’t drown.

A Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall on flat, saturated ground is not the same job as a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms. Staff pumps, moisture meters, and drying equipment. Do not staff tarps for a watch that does not exist. River statements in Iowa, on the Missouri and Mississippi, and on the Shoal and St. Mary’s are separate from today’s front. They are slow water already in the channel.

What this is not

This is not a severe outbreak and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. SPC’s categorical map is empty. No convective watch is valid. No preliminary tornado, hail, or wind report is on yesterday’s or today’s SPC log. AL92 is a high-chance disturbance that has not been named and has not put a tropical watch on the northern Gulf Coast. The local-storm pattern this desk should staff is training rain on a sagging Florida front, a just-hit Big Bend flood warning that expired, and leftover river water.

Looking ahead

SPC’s next Day 1 outlook is scheduled by 1630 UTC. WPC’s Day 1 window runs through 12 UTC Wednesday. The front stays the story across Florida. If AL92 becomes a tropical depression and turns toward the northern Gulf Coast later in the week, that becomes a tropical desk only after NHC names it or puts a watch on the coast. Until then it is a development note, not an overnight hit.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook for Tuesday, October 6, 2026, and the current convective watch page (no watches valid, stamp 13:20 UTC); SPC today’s storm reports and yesterday’s storm reports; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, updated 0821 UTC; National Weather Service watch, warning, and advisory text for Tallahassee, Jacksonville, St. Louis, Kansas City, Quad Cities, Mobile, and Key West; National Hurricane Center Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook, 8:00 a.m. EDT Tuesday. Prior desk: Monday afternoon, October 5 — Texas Coast Marginal Flood, Quiet Severe Pulse.

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook and LSRs, and the WPC excessive-rainfall page for the flood overlay.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

October 6, 2026

Storm Updates: Texas Coast Slight Flood, Quiet Severe Pulse — Monday, October 5, 2026 (Morning)

This is the Monday morning Storm Tracker desk for October 5, 2026. Overnight into this morning the organized severe window stayed closed. The Storm Prediction Center 1300 UTC Day 1 convective outlook, updated 7:32 a.m. CDT by Guyer and Dean and valid 1300 UTC Monday through 1200 UTC Tuesday, carries no severe thunderstorm areas. The summary line is short: severe thunderstorms are not expected today.

The larger restoration ticket is water, not a watch box. The Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, updated 0746 UTC and discussed at 3:57 a.m. EDT by Wegman, keeps a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall for the southern lower Texas coast, including Brownsville and coastal Willacy and Cameron counties. Southeast Alabama took radar-indicated flash flood warnings overnight that have since expired. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What is live this morning

No convective watches are currently valid. SPC’s watch page, updated 12:26 UTC Monday, lists none. The most recently issued watch is still Severe Thunderstorm Watch 676, a Wednesday, September 30 product for west-central Texas. No mesoscale discussion is driving a severe box this morning. SPC’s storm-report page for the new convective day, 1200 UTC Monday through 1159 UTC Tuesday, shows no tornado, hail, or wind reports received.

The pattern behind the quiet severe desk is progressive northwesterly flow over the northern tier of the country and Canada, with a prominent upper trough shifting east over Quebec. Surface high pressure and large-scale subsidence generally prevail east of the Mississippi River. Surface troughing is becoming established across the Great Plains, but with limited moisture. Along the Gulf Coast and Florida, thunderstorms are expected near and south of a southward-shifting frontal boundary. Isolated low-topped thunderstorms may occur today from northern New York into northern New England as a cold front shifts east. SPC notes a few convectively enhanced wind gusts might occur there as lapse rates steepen diurnally. That is a local gust note, not a risk area.

Watches that expired overnight versus what is still live

Nothing convective expired overnight because nothing convective was valid. The overnight Day 1 outlook at 0100 UTC, written by Squitieri at 8:37 p.m. CDT Sunday, already said severe thunderstorms were not expected across the continental United States through 1200 UTC. Lightning coverage along the sagging Southeast front was expected to decrease with nocturnal cooling, and a plume of marginal buoyancy from Colorado into New Mexico was expected to wane.

The products that did expire were flash flood warnings, not watches. National Weather Service Birmingham extended a Flash Flood Warning for northern Barbour County until 2:30 a.m. CDT. At 11:52 p.m. CDT Sunday, radar indicated 4 to 6 inches already down, with another 2 to 4 inches possible. The polygon included Clayton, Comer, Spring Hill, Hawkinsville, and U.S. 82 between mile markers 219 and 235. National Weather Service Tallahassee, issued by Jacksonville, put a Flash Flood Warning on central Coffee County and northwestern Dale County until 4:15 a.m. CDT. At 1:20 a.m. CDT, radar indicated 1 to 3 inches down and up to 2 inches more, covering Elba, Fort Rucker, Enterprise, Ozark, New Brockton, and Ariton. Both of those warnings are off the board this morning.

A Special Marine Warning from Tallahassee, also issued by Jacksonville, covered Apalachee Bay and coastal waters from the Suwannee River to Apalachicola until 3:30 a.m. EDT for a radar-indicated waterspout and gusts of 34 knots or greater. The cell was 12 nautical miles southeast of V Tower, moving east at 5 knots. That marine warning has expired. It was a coastal water ticket, not a land tornado report.

What is still live is flood-watch language, not a convective watch. National Weather Service Mobile, issued by New Orleans at 9:58 p.m. CDT Sunday, extended a Flood Watch through Monday morning, until 1700 UTC, for portions of southwest Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle, including Baldwin and Mobile counties and the Destin to Fort Walton Beach coast. National Weather Service Tallahassee, issued by Jacksonville Sunday afternoon, holds a Flood Watch through Monday evening for southeast Alabama including Geneva and Houston counties, the Florida Panhandle, and parts of south Georgia. The Tallahassee text calls for another 2 to 4 inches, locally up to 6, especially along the Emerald and Forgotten coasts, and notes south-central Georgia is already primed from Friday rain. National Weather Service Jacksonville at 2:17 a.m. EDT extended a Flood Watch through this evening for portions of north Florida and southeast Georgia, including Baker, coastal Duval, coastal and inland Nassau, and eastern Hamilton counties, with listed towns running from Fernandina Beach and Hilliard toward Alma and Woodbine.

Hotspot 1 — Lower Texas coast

This is the only Slight Risk on the WPC Day 1 map. A stalled front remains draped across almost the entire Gulf Coast, and the piece near the lower Texas coast is stationary. Flow on both sides of the front is out of the northeast. Precipitable water along the front is above 2.25 inches, and sea-surface temperatures in the upper 80s are feeding slow-moving, training showers and thunderstorms that are moving southwest along the front into the coast. WPC says rainfall yesterday alone ranged from 3 to 6 inches, with another 2 to 4 inches expected today.

Wegman kept the Slight Risk specifically for coastal Willacy and Cameron counties, including Brownsville, and noted that outside urban pockets on South Padre Island and in Brownsville, much of the area is flat with sandy soils that are difficult to flood even with this volume. That is an urban and poor-drainage ticket, not a basin-wide river emergency.

Restoration read: stage extraction and drying for low-lying streets, underpasses, and first-floor commercial space in Brownsville and on South Padre, not a regional roof-and-wind deployment. Yesterday’s 3 to 6 inches is already a wet-drywall clock in the places that did not drain. Photograph standing water only if the road is clear. Turn around, don’t drown.

Hotspot 2 — Southeast Alabama into the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend

The same front extends across far southern Alabama, Georgia, and north Florida, but here it has been moving south, slowly. WPC left this corridor in a Marginal Risk. The heaviest rains are aimed at the Florida Panhandle near Apalachicola and the Big Bend. Forecast totals for the day run 3 to 6 inches in those regions. Forecasters kept the risk at Marginal because the area is relatively flat, sparsely populated in the core, and full of swamp that can take water. Urban flash-flood concern stays along I-10 from Pensacola through Tallahassee into Jacksonville, where storms are not expected to move very far.

Overnight just-hit reports are the Barbour, Coffee, and Dale warnings. Those polygons are off, but the Flood Watches are not. Mobile’s watch runs through Monday morning. Tallahassee’s runs through Monday evening. That is the handoff from a warning that already verified on radar to a watch that still covers the next round.

Restoration read: southeast Alabama is a just-hit water desk. Enterprise, Ozark, Elba, and Clayton are the towns named in the expired warnings. Treat interior water found this morning as last night’s rain, not a new severe claim. The Panhandle and Big Bend are today’s training-rain desk if cells sit on I-10 or the Forgotten Coast. Do not staff it as wind or hail.

Quiet severe pulse and leftover river water

Northern New York into northern New England is the only place SPC mentioned enhanced gusts, and only as isolated low-topped storms on the cold front. No risk area, no watch, no reports. The Plains stay moisture-starved under the surface trough. East of the Mississippi, high pressure is the dominant story away from the Gulf front.

River products already on the board are not the same as a flash-flood warning. National Weather Service St. Louis at 10:30 p.m. CDT Sunday kept minor flooding on the Mississippi River at Louisiana, Missouri, stage 15.2 feet against a 15.0-foot flood stage, in effect until Wednesday morning, and at Clarksville, stage 25.2 feet against 25.0, until Tuesday evening. National Weather Service Quad Cities replaced a river flood watch with a flood warning for minor flooding on the Wapsipinicon River near Anamosa Shaw Road from Monday morning into Tuesday morning. Those are channel tickets from earlier rain, not this morning’s convective pulse.

Tropics are not a U.S. land desk this morning. No named cyclone is threatening the mainland or is on the coast from an overnight landfall. The National Hurricane Center Atlantic discussion at 1215 UTC notes a front stalling over the northern Gulf and says broad low pressure may develop over the far southwest Gulf Tuesday night into Wednesday. Environmental conditions are only marginally conducive; a tropical depression could form in the second half of the week while the system drifts east, then turns north. That is a development note, not a landfall warning. The hurricane-warning language on the national watch page this morning is offshore Mexico in the eastern Pacific, not a Gulf Coast product.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / WPC / NWS level	Status this morning
Lower Texas coast (Cameron, Willacy, Brownsville)	Training rain, urban flood	WPC Slight; no SPC severe area	Live; another 2–4 inches after 3–6 yesterday
SE Alabama (Barbour, Coffee, Dale)	Just-hit flash flood	Warnings expired 2:30–4:15 a.m. CDT	Aftermath; 1–6 inches indicated overnight
SW Alabama / western FL Panhandle	Additional heavy rain	Flood Watch through Monday morning	Live until about noon CDT
Emerald / Forgotten Coast, Big Bend	Training rain, isolated flash flood	WPC Marginal; Flood Watch through Monday evening	Live; 3–6 inches possible, locally 6
North Florida / SE Georgia	Excessive rainfall	JAX Flood Watch through this evening	Live
Northern NY / northern New England	Isolated gusty storms	No severe area	Low-topped; no watch
Mississippi at Louisiana MO / Clarksville; Wapsipinicon	Minor river flood	Flood warnings	In channel, not a new convective ticket

What this means for restoration teams

There is no wind or hail box to stage against. The morning work, if it is already inside a building, is southeast Alabama water from warnings that expired before dawn, plus any Brownsville or South Padre street that did not clear after yesterday’s 3 to 6 inches. The day work is extraction timing on the lower Texas coast and a flood-watch posture from Mobile through the Panhandle into north Florida and south Georgia.

A Slight Risk of excessive rainfall on sandy coastal plain is not the same job as a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms. Staff pumps, moisture meters, and drying equipment. Do not staff tarps for a watch that does not exist. River statements on the Mississippi and the Wapsipinicon are separate from the Gulf front; they are slow water already in the channel.

What this is not

This is not a severe outbreak and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. SPC’s categorical map is empty. No convective watch is valid. No preliminary tornado, hail, or wind report is on today’s SPC log. The Gulf development note is a midweek possibility over the southwest Gulf, not an overnight hit. The local-storm pattern this desk should staff is training rain on a stalled coastal front and leftover flood-watch counties from last night’s Alabama warnings.

Looking ahead

SPC’s next Day 1 outlook is scheduled by 1630 UTC. WPC’s Day 1 window runs through 12 UTC Tuesday. The front stays the story: stationary on the lower Texas coast, still sagging south across the Southeast. If the southwest Gulf low organizes later in the week, that becomes a tropical desk only after NHC names it or puts a watch on the coast. Until then it is a moisture source for the same stalled boundary.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook for Monday, October 5, 2026, and the current convective watch page (no watches valid, stamp 12:26 UTC); SPC today’s storm reports; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, updated 0746 UTC; National Weather Service watch, warning, and advisory text for Birmingham, Tallahassee, Jacksonville, Mobile, St. Louis, and Quad Cities. Prior desk: Sunday afternoon, October 4 — Florida Panhandle Marginal, Texas Coast Moderate Rain.

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook and LSRs, and the WPC excessive-rainfall page for the flood overlay.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

October 5, 2026

Storm Updates: Florida Panhandle Marginal, Texas Coast Moderate Rain — Sunday, October 4, 2026 (Morning)

This is the Sunday morning Storm Tracker desk for October 4, 2026. Overnight into this morning the organized severe window stayed small, but it is no longer empty. The Storm Prediction Center 1300 UTC Day 1 convective outlook, updated 7:43 a.m. CDT by Guyer and Dean and valid 1300 UTC Sunday through 1200 UTC Monday, carries a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms across the coastal Florida Panhandle. The summary line is short: a few rotating thunderstorms are possible today across the coastal Florida Panhandle.

The larger restoration ticket is water, not a watch box. The Weather Prediction Center raised a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall for the lower Texas coast, and National Weather Service flash flood warnings were already in effect before 9 a.m. CDT on the Emerald Coast. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What is live this morning

No convective watches are currently valid. SPC’s watch page, updated 12:04 UTC Sunday, lists none. The most recently issued watch is still Severe Thunderstorm Watch 676, a Wednesday, September 30 product for west-central Texas. Nothing from Saturday night carried into Sunday morning as a severe thunderstorm or tornado watch. The 0100 UTC Day 1 outlook Saturday night, written by Marsh, had no severe areas at all. The Marginal was added on the 0600 UTC cycle and kept on the 1300 UTC update.

SPC local storm reports for the 1200 UTC Saturday through 1159 UTC Sunday window, and for the new Sunday convective day that opened at 1200 UTC, show no tornado, hail, or wind reports received. The overnight severe hit list is empty. What verified overnight and into the morning is rain, not a wind or hail survey.

The Marginal area on the 1300 UTC graphic covers about 7,329 square miles and about 828,936 people. Larger population centers listed by SPC include Pensacola, Panama City, Ferry Pass, Wright, and Brent. The 0600 UTC probabilistic table placed a 2 percent tornado risk on that same coastal strip and listed no damaging-wind or large-hail areas. The 1300 UTC discussion does not add a wind or hail probability. The threat, if it verifies, is a brief, transient low-level circulation near the coast.

Hotspot 1 — Florida Panhandle and the central Gulf Coast

A stalled or slow-southeastward-moving surface front sits across the Southeast and Deep South. South of it, precipitable water is in excess of 2 inches, and the 0600 UTC discussion cited mean precipitable water near 2.5 inches on the Florida Panhandle with mean MUCAPE generally 500 J/kg or less. Scattered showers and thunderstorms were already common early today south of the front, including the northern Gulf. SPC notes some guidance, most notably recent NAM runs, for weak offshore surface low development and a related increase in low-level flow and storm-relative helicity. If that trend holds, storms near the coast can spin up briefly. The related hazard is a waterspout or a brief tornado, mainly near the coast.

That marine piece is already on the warning map. National Weather Service Tallahassee, issued by Jacksonville, put special marine warnings up before 8 a.m. CDT for coastal waters from the Okaloosa–Walton line toward Mexico Beach, and again toward Apalachee Bay, for waterspouts and wind gusts of 34 knots or greater. Mobile, issued by New Orleans, had a special marine warning for coastal waters from the Okaloosa–Walton line to Pensacola. Those are marine products. They are not a land tornado warning, and none was on the national summary at the morning scan.

Water is the product that is already warning, not watching. At 6:52 a.m. CDT, National Weather Service Mobile, issued by New Orleans, issued a flash flood warning for southeastern Okaloosa County until 9:45 a.m. CDT. Radar indicated 2 to 4 inches already down, with another 1 to 3 inches possible. Locations named in the warning include Wright, Fort Walton Beach, Niceville, Destin, Eglin Air Force Base, Valparaiso, and Mary Esther. At 7:38 a.m. CDT, Tallahassee, issued by Jacksonville, issued a flash flood warning for west-central Bay County and southwestern Walton County until 10:45 a.m. CDT. Radar indicated 1 to 3 inches already down, with another 1 to 2 inches possible. Locations include Santa Rosa Beach, Freeport, Grayton Beach, Seaside, Sandestin, Inlet Beach, and Miramar Beach.

Flood watches frame that warning. Mobile’s flood watch remains through this evening for Mobile and Baldwin counties in southwest Alabama and for Escambia, Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa counties in northwest Florida, including Pensacola, Gulf Shores, and Fort Walton Beach. Additional rainfall of 4 to 6 inches is expected, with locally higher amounts up to 10 inches. Tallahassee’s flood watch remains through Monday morning for Walton, Holmes, Washington, Bay, and Gulf counties, and a separate watch through Monday morning covers southeast Alabama (Geneva and Houston), the Florida Big Bend including Tallahassee, and south-central Georgia including Albany, Thomasville, and Valdosta. Additional totals of 2 to 6 inches are forecast, locally up to 10 inches along the Emerald Coast. New Orleans holds a flood watch through this evening for coastal Mississippi (Hancock, Harrison, and Jackson counties, including Gulfport and Biloxi) and for southeast Louisiana including New Orleans, with an additional 3 to 5 inches possible. Jacksonville has a flood watch from noon today through Monday morning for the Georgia coast, where prior rain has already cut flash-flood guidance.

WPC’s Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, updated 0738 UTC Sunday and valid 12 UTC Sunday through 12 UTC Monday, kept an enhanced Slight Risk from Mobile Bay east to the Emerald and Forgotten coasts and deferred a Moderate upgrade there after coordination with offices Mobile and Tallahassee. Forecaster Weiss cited 2 to 3 inch-per-hour rates, precipitable water above 2.25 to 2.5 inches, and training where Corfidi vectors collapse. Some areas can see 3 to 5 inches today, locally as much as 8 inches. A separate Georgia-coast signal is centered near Savannah, with compromised flash-flood guidance of 1 to 2 inches in three hours.

Restoration read: staff the warning, not the Marginal polygon. Okaloosa, Walton, and Bay are the live water board this morning. Pensacola to Panama City is the brief-tornado strip if the offshore low tightens low-level shear. This is wet drywall, flooring, and a short mold clock where water enters. It is not a regional roof or hail crew. Do not treat a special marine warning as a land damage survey.

Hotspot 2 — Lower Texas coast

The highest excessive-rain category on the board is not the Panhandle. WPC raised a targeted Moderate Risk for the lower Texas coast between Brownsville and Corpus Christi after coordination with offices Brownsville and Corpus Christi. Convection developing over the Gulf is expected to track southwest into moist inflow and push onshore repeatedly. Rates of 2 to 3 inches per hour could produce local maxima in excess of 10 inches. Both the REFS and HREF indicate a greater than 50 percent chance of at least 8 inches. Recent rain has already been significant in spots: 2 to 4 inches in the last 12 hours, and up to 8 inches in the last three days. Sandy soils keep flash-flood guidance elevated, but WPC still flags locally significant impacts if the core crosses urban areas or more sensitive soils.

A Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall was joined along the immediate western Gulf Coast for possible onshore drift of heavy rain through the morning and afternoon. That is a lower bar than the Moderate strip from Brownsville to Corpus Christi. A coastal flood advisory is also in effect until 2 p.m. CDT for minor coastal flooding on the Aransas, Kleberg, and Nueces islands. That is tide and surge on the islands, not a convective watch.

Restoration read: Brownsville, Corpus Christi, and the communities between them are the new volume ticket. Saturday’s Slight Risk on this same coast is now a Moderate. Stage for street flooding and first-floor water only where a warning or a closed road verifies. Do not send the Panhandle crew and the Texas coast crew as if they are one storm.

What expired, and what is still just a river

Saturday’s Day 1 outlook had no severe areas, and Saturday’s storm-report page stayed empty. The Gulf Coast Slight Risk of excessive rain from Saturday is the parent of this morning’s watches, not a separate event. Iowa river flood warnings continued early Sunday on the Iowa River near Tama, Black Hawk Creek at Hudson, the South Skunk River at Colfax, and the Des Moines and Raccoon rivers at Des Moines. Those are river-stage tickets. They are not a convective watch and not a new storm-damage board.

Tropics — not a U.S. land desk

National Hurricane Center Advisory 29 at 2:00 a.m. MST Sunday places Hurricane Rachel near 20.2°N, 113.2°W, moving west-northwest at 5 mph, with maximum sustained winds of 100 mph and a minimum pressure of 968 mb. Rachel strengthened a little and remains well southwest of Baja California. The hurricane warnings on the morning national summary are offshore-waters products for the eastern Pacific within 250 nautical miles of Mexico, including waters near the Revillagigedo Islands and Cabo San Lucas. That is not a U.S. landfall.

Hurricane Nolo, at 11:00 p.m. HST Saturday, was near 23.6°N, 176.7°W, moving west at 18 mph with winds of 110 mph, and is expected to cross the International Date Line on Sunday. It is not a U.S. mainland threat. The Atlantic basin has no tropical cyclones this morning. The Gulf rain is tied to the stalled front and deep moisture, not to a named storm making landfall.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / WPC / NWS level	Status this morning
Coastal Florida Panhandle	Brief tornado, waterspout	SPC Marginal; 2% tornado on 0600 UTC	Live today; no convective watch
Okaloosa, Walton, Bay counties	Flash flood	Flash flood warnings to mid-morning	Live; 1–4 inches already indicated
Mobile Bay to Emerald Coast	Training heavy rain	WPC Slight, upgrade deferred; flood watches	4–6 inches more, locally 8–10
SE Louisiana, coastal Mississippi	Heavy rain	Flood watch through this evening	Additional 3–5 inches possible
Lower Texas coast	Extreme rain rates	WPC Moderate	Local maxima above 10 inches possible
Georgia coast near Savannah	Repeated heavy rain	Flood watch noon through Monday morning	Soils already partly saturated
U.S. mainland tropics	None	Atlantic clear; Rachel SW of Baja	Offshore Mexico warnings only

What this means for restoration teams

There is still no wind-driven roof board on the Day 1 outlook. The Marginal is a coastal spin-up risk, not a hail or widespread damaging-wind risk. A 2-to-3 inch-per-hour rate is wet drywall and a 24-to-48-hour mold clock only where water actually enters. High flash-flood guidance on sandy Texas soils means part of the Moderate Risk will not produce a claim. Staff the warning polygon in Okaloosa, Walton, and Bay first. Treat Brownsville to Corpus Christi as the volume board if cells come onshore this afternoon. The empty SPC report page means there is no new hail or tornado survey from overnight.

Next check

The next Day 1 convective outlook is scheduled by 1630 UTC. Day 2, valid Monday, carries no severe thunderstorm areas. The afternoon desk should re-read the WPC Moderate Risk, any new flash flood warnings on the Panhandle, and whether the brief-tornado trend still holds before treating this morning polygon as still live. Flood watches on the Panhandle run through Monday morning. Mobile, New Orleans, and the lower Texas coast are today’s shorter fuse.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook for Sunday, October 4, 2026; SPC current watches (none valid; last issued watch 676); SPC storm reports for October 3 and October 4 (no tornado, hail, or wind reports received); Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, updated 0738 UTC Sunday; National Weather Service watches, warnings, and advisories summary, including flash flood warnings for Okaloosa County and for Bay and Walton counties; National Hurricane Center Advisory 29 on Hurricane Rachel, 2:00 a.m. MST Sunday. Prior desk: Storm Updates: Gulf Coast Slight Flood, Quiet Severe Pulse — Saturday, October 3, 2026.

Disclaimer: This is a morning desk summary of public National Weather Service, Storm Prediction Center, Weather Prediction Center, and National Hurricane Center products. It is not a warning, not a forecast for a specific address, and not a substitute for local NWS products. Watches and warnings expire and get replaced. Confirm the county or ZIP on weather.gov before travel or work.

October 4, 2026

Storm Updates: New Mexico Flood Moderate, Dakotas–Appalachians Marginal — Wednesday, September 23, 2026 (Morning)

This is a live Wednesday morning snapshot of local storm-type events across the United States as of the morning of Wednesday, September 23, 2026. Overnight into this morning, the flood desk ran ahead of the severe desk: National Weather Service flash-flood warnings for El Paso County, Texas; Amelia, Cumberland, and Powhatan counties in central Virginia; and a receding western North Carolina pulse around Lake Lure / Bat Cave / Chimney Rock. Those overnight warnings are treated as expired or expiring into this morning. Today’s desks: Storm Prediction Center Marginal Risk for parts of the western Dakotas and the southern Appalachians; Weather Prediction Center Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall across portions of central and eastern New Mexico. No convective watches are currently valid.

These are county- and ZIP-scale thunderstorms and flood pulses, not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. There is no named tropical cyclone threatening U.S. land in the current National Hurricane Center picture. Restoration exposure today into tonight is water first in New Mexico and far west Texas, leftover street and creek flooding in central Virginia and the southern Appalachians, and isolated damaging gusts this afternoon if the two Marginal corridors heat. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What is live this morning

SPC’s 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook (issued 7:26 a.m. CDT Wednesday, September 23, 2026; Smith/Mead; valid 231300Z–241200Z) places a Marginal Risk over parts of the western Dakotas and the southern Appalachians. Summary: isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon across those two corridors. Western Dakotas: mid-level trough moving out of Wyoming/Montana, lee trough, moisture plume off the High Plains, around 1,000 J/kg MLCAPE, isolated marginally severe hail or gusts through early evening. Southern Appalachians: mid-level vorticity maximum sliding southeast from the lower Ohio Valley; dewpoints in the 60s °F; 250–750 J/kg MLCAPE if heating wins against low cloud; strong to locally damaging gusts with the stronger cells. Hail probabilities were removed after the 12 UTC Nashville sounding showed poor 700–500 mb lapse rates (4.8 °C/km).

No convective watches were currently valid as of the SPC watches page update at 09:44:06 UTC Wednesday, September 23, 2026. Most recent watch on the board: 0674. Check spc.noaa.gov/products/watch before you stage.

WPC’s Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 0832 UTC Wednesday, September 23, 2026; Chenard; valid 12Z Wed–12Z Thu) holds a Moderate Risk across portions of central and eastern New Mexico. Scattered to numerous flash floods are expected; locally significant and life-threatening impacts remain possible on sensitive terrain, urban drainage, and burn scars. A widespread 1–2 inches is generally expected, with localized 2–4 inch swaths likely on top of rain that already fell before 12Z. The Slight risk extends into southeast Arizona and a slice of far west Texas if storms propagate east. Separate flood desks: Slight over portions of eastern Kentucky, eastern Tennessee, and far western North Carolina; Marginal from Ohio into West Virginia and western Virginia/North Carolina; Marginal over south Florida.

Hotspot 1 — Central and eastern New Mexico / far west Texas

Today’s Moderate flood desk and the national headline. A well-defined mid-level shortwave lifts north-northeast across New Mexico with robust upper divergence and the chance of a weak surface low. Cloud cover is the limiter; daytime heating on the eastern edge of the rain shield plus easterly upslope should still support training cells in deep southerly flow. HREF/REFS neighborhood probabilities of more than 3 inches run 40–70% across the eastern half of the Moderate area. Overnight El Paso County already took radar-indicated 0.5–1.5 inch bursts and flash-flood warnings that expired before dawn.

Restoration read: water first. Stage pumps and air movers before the afternoon/evening cores organize. Burn-scar runoff and arroyos fail first. Start extraction the same night if water is inside. Turn around, don’t drown — most flood deaths are in vehicles.

Hotspot 2 — Southern Appalachians / eastern Tennessee

Dual desk: SPC Marginal for isolated damaging gusts, WPC Slight for flash flood on wet ground from eastern Kentucky through eastern Tennessee into far western North Carolina. Extensive low cloud this morning is the uncertainty. If breaks allow 250–750 J/kg MLCAPE, multicells along the inverted trough can put down strong gusts around peak heating. HREF/REFS neighborhood flash-flood-guidance exceedance peaks over eastern Tennessee (above 40% in spots). Overnight, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg held a flash-flood warning into 5:45 a.m. EDT for southeastern Buncombe, northeastern Henderson, southwestern McDowell, northwestern Polk, and northwestern Rutherford counties — 2.5–4 inches already down, waters receding by 3:05 a.m. EDT, Rocky Broad near Bat Cave falling through 6.58 feet.

Restoration read: leftover water plus a second-chance afternoon pulse. Do not treat receding creeks as closed. Stage extractors in eastern Tennessee and western North Carolina; tree and tarp crews only if the gusty cells actually fire.

Hotspot 3 — Western Dakotas

New SPC Marginal added on the 1300 UTC outlook. Mid-level trough crossing Wyoming/Montana reaches the western Dakotas late afternoon and deamplifies toward the Red River Valley by Thursday morning. Lee trough holds a moisture plume north from the central High Plains. Widely scattered storms near the Black Hills and lee trough this afternoon; isolated marginally severe hail or gusts through early evening. No major population centers sit inside the 5% hail contour.

Restoration read: isolated wind and hail, not a regional outbreak. Stage only if you already work the Black Hills / western Dakota corridor. Do not pull crews off the New Mexico water desk for this.

Just hit

Overnight flood, not overnight severe. NWS El Paso/Santa Teresa issued flash-flood warnings for northwestern and central El Paso County into the small hours (radar 0.5–1.5 inches, additional 0.5–1 inch possible; warnings through 3:15 a.m. MDT). Otero Mesa / northwest of Dell City had 2.5–3 inches radar-estimated earlier in the night with rural-road flooding held off Dell City by retention dams. NWS Wakefield: up to 4 inches since 11 p.m. in northwestern Amelia County and up to 5.5 inches since 10 p.m. in western Powhatan County; warnings through 4:00–5:30 a.m. EDT. Western North Carolina pulse receding after 2.5–4 inches.

SPC local storm reports for the 22/1200Z–23/1159Z window carried no tornado and no hail. Wind reports from late Tuesday afternoon remain on the board for Lauderdale County, Alabama (Lexington / Rogersville): power lines down, a brush fire, and a power pole/lines on a vehicle — already noted on yesterday’s afternoon Tygart Media desk. Do not invent additional LSR points.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / WPC / NWS level	Status this morning
Central / eastern NM and far west TX	Flash flood, training storms, burn-scar runoff	WPC Moderate	Live flood desk today–Thu 12Z
Southeast AZ	Localized flash flood	WPC Slight	Today
Eastern KY / eastern TN / far western NC	Flash flood + isolated damaging gusts	WPC Slight + SPC Marginal	Afternoon–evening
Western Dakotas / Black Hills	Isolated hail / gusts	SPC Marginal	Late afternoon–early evening
OH into WV / western VA–NC	Localized flash flood on wet soils	WPC Marginal	Today
South Florida	Urban flash flood	WPC Marginal	Local
El Paso / central VA / WNC overnight	Flash flood (expired/expiring FFWs)	Overnight NWS warnings	Aftermath / receding
U.S. mainland tropics	No landfalling named cyclone	NHC quiet for CONUS land	Quiet

What this means for restoration teams

New Mexico and far west Texas remain water jobs if the Moderate risk verifies — extraction, drying, and a 24–48 hour mold clock. Central Virginia and western North Carolina are aftermath from last night plus a second-chance flood axis this afternoon in eastern Tennessee. The Dakotas Marginal is isolated. Do not treat receding overnight warnings as a closed book; soils are primed. Stage before the New Mexico afternoon cores. Start extraction the same night if water is inside. Turn around, don’t drown.

What this is not

This is not a regional derecho and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. There are no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin at this hour. Hurricane Polo (Category 4, off southwest Mexico) and Hurricane Odalys (eastern Pacific, well west of Baja) are not CONUS land threats today. Tropical Depression Fifteen-E is a Central Pacific system near Hawaii, not a mainland U.S. landfall. Today’s work, if it verifies, is scattered: New Mexico flash flood, leftover Mid-Atlantic and Appalachian water, isolated Dakotas hail/wind, isolated southern Appalachian gusts.

Looking ahead

SPC Day 2 (Thursday) and Day 3 currently show no severe thunderstorm areas. That does not cancel today’s New Mexico flood problem or this afternoon’s two Marginal corridors. Day 4–8 language is only a possible localized Plains/Mid-Mississippi threat next Monday–Wednesday with weak shear — too unclear for probabilities. Watch the next Storm Tracker update rather than assuming the Moderate rainfall risk is the last line of the week.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources: SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook issued 7:26 a.m. CDT Wednesday, September 23, 2026 (Smith/Mead); SPC watches page updated 09:44:06 UTC Wednesday, September 23, 2026; WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook updated 0832 UTC Wednesday, September 23, 2026 (Chenard); NWS El Paso/Santa Teresa, Wakefield, and Greenville-Spartanburg flash-flood products overnight; SPC local storm reports (Lauderdale County, Alabama wind from Tuesday afternoon); NHC Atlantic discussion 1215 UTC Wednesday, September 23, 2026.

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watch, and local storm reports, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay. Prior desk: Storm Updates September 22, 2026 — New Mexico Flood Moderate, Utah–Southeast Marginal.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

September 23, 2026

Storm Updates: New Mexico Flood Moderate, Utah–Southeast Marginal — Tuesday, September 22, 2026 (Morning)

This is a live Tuesday morning snapshot of local storm-type events across the United States as of the morning of Tuesday, September 22, 2026. Overnight, the Appalachians–Southeast corridor carried the pulse — NWS Charleston, West Virginia flash-flood warnings for southern and north-central West Virginia into southwest Virginia. Those overnight warnings are treated as expired/expiring into this morning (no active WV flash-flood warnings on the NWS alert feed at hang time). Today’s desks: Storm Prediction Center Marginal Risk for much of Utah into adjacent Wyoming and Colorado, plus a portion of the Southeast; Weather Prediction Center Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall across portions of southern New Mexico. No convective watches are currently valid.

These are county- and ZIP-scale thunderstorms and flood pulses, not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. There is no U.S. landfalling tropical cyclone in the current National Hurricane Center picture. Restoration exposure today into tonight is water first in southern New Mexico and far west Texas, wind and marginally severe hail this afternoon across the Utah corridor, leftover Appalachian water from Monday night, and locally severe gusts plus flood axes across parts of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What is live this morning

SPC’s 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook (issued 7:22 a.m. CDT Tuesday, September 22, 2026; Smith/Mead; valid 221300Z–231200Z) places a Marginal Risk over much of Utah into adjacent Wyoming and Colorado, and across a portion of the Southeast. Summary: isolated severe wind gusts today in Utah into southwest Wyoming and western Colorado; thunderstorms capable of strong to locally severe damaging gusts also possible across parts of the Southeast. Outlook footprint ~196,000 square miles / ~24 million people. Larger Southeast centers in the risk area include Charlotte, Atlanta, Greensboro, Birmingham, and Montgomery.

No convective watches were currently valid as of the SPC watches page update at 11:44:05 UTC Tuesday, September 22, 2026. Most recent watch on the board: 0674. Check spc.noaa.gov/products/watch before you stage.

WPC’s Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 0809 UTC Tuesday, September 22, 2026; Chenard; valid 12Z Tue–12Z Wed) holds a Moderate Risk across portions of southern New Mexico, with flood watches from noon MDT today through Wednesday afternoon/evening for large parts of New Mexico and far west Texas (NWS Albuquerque and El Paso/Santa Teresa). WPC Slight axes: southeast Virginia into South Carolina, and West Virginia into southwest Virginia. South Florida: WPC Marginal for localized urban flash flood.

Hotspot 1 — Southern New Mexico / far west Texas

Today’s Moderate flood desk. Multi-day heavy rain starts today under an upper trough, jet right-entrance dynamics, deep southerly tropical moisture, and precipitable water toward mid/late September record levels. Daytime favors scattered storms; overnight trends toward a more concentrated rain shield with heavier cores over southern New Mexico. Ensemble neighborhood guidance: 40–70% chance of more than 3 inches across New Mexico today; 2–4 inch max footprint through early Wednesday. Scattered to numerous flash floods expected, some locally significant, including Sacramento Mountains burn scars.

Restoration read: water first. Stage pumps and air movers before the overnight shield organizes. Burn-scar runoff and low water crossings fail first. Start extraction the same night if water is inside.

Hotspot 2 — Utah into southwest Wyoming and western Colorado

SPC Marginal wind-and-hail corridor. Mid-level trough over the western Great Basin moves northeast across Utah through early evening. After early showers, heating steepens 0–2 km lapse rates; elongated hodographs support a few stronger cells with marginally severe hail. Isolated 60–75 mph gusts are the primary hazard. Activity can later spill into western Colorado and southwest Wyoming late afternoon into early evening.

Restoration read: wind and isolated hail. Stage tarps, generators, and tree crews before late afternoon. Soft-metal roofs and skylights after stronger cells only if it is safe.

Hotspot 3 — Southeast / southern Appalachians, plus Mid-Atlantic flood axes

SPC Marginal for the Southeast focuses on a slow-moving cold front from the Deep South into the southern Appalachians. Dewpoints upper 60s–lower 70s °F; afternoon MLCAPE about 1,500–2,500 J/kg. Weak shear; water-loaded downdrafts can produce locally severe gusts into early evening.

WPC Slight flood axes: southeast Virginia into South Carolina (coastal convergence + backdoor front; neighborhood high for 3 inches, localized 5 inches possible) and West Virginia into southwest Virginia (wetter soils, lower flash-flood guidance, inverted trough). Farther north Mid-Atlantic: more stratiform 1–2 inches. South Florida WPC Marginal is a local urban-flood desk, not the national headline.

Restoration read: gusty wind and street flooding can share the same ZIP. Charlotte, Atlanta, Greensboro, Birmingham, and Montgomery sit inside the broader Southeast convective risk — local pulse desks, not a regional derecho.

Just hit

Monday afternoon into overnight, the Appalachians–Southeast carried the live severe and flash-flood pulse (already on yesterday’s afternoon Tygart Media desk). Overnight NWS Charleston, West Virginia flash-flood warnings covered southern West Virginia / southwest Virginia (Welch, Pineville, Davy, McDowell, Wyoming, Buchanan; 1–3 inches radar-indicated) and north-central West Virginia along Buckhannon–Burnsville–Century / I-79 (1–3 inches). Those overnight warnings are treated as expired or expiring into this morning. No clean parsed SPC LSR list in this pass — do not invent points.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / WPC / NWS level	Status this morning
Southern NM / far west TX	Flash flood, multi-day heavy rain, burn-scar runoff	WPC Moderate + flood watches	Live flood desk today–Wed
Utah into SW WY / western CO	Severe wind gusts, marginally severe hail	SPC Marginal	Afternoon–early evening
Southeast / southern Appalachians	Locally severe damaging gusts	SPC Marginal	Afternoon–early evening
SE VA into SC; WV into SW VA	Flash flood / heavy rain	WPC Slight	Today into tonight
South Florida	Urban flash flood, lightning	WPC Marginal	Local
Appalachians–Southeast overnight	Flash flood (yesterday’s pulse)	Overnight FFWs (expired/expiring)	Aftermath / drying
U.S. mainland tropics	No landfalling tropical cyclone	NHC quiet for mainland	Quiet

What this means for restoration teams

Southern New Mexico and far west Texas are water jobs if the Moderate risk verifies — extraction, drying, and a 24–48 hour mold clock. Utah’s Marginal corridor is wind and isolated hail. Southeast Marginal wind is local gusty warnings, not a derecho. Leftover Appalachian water from Monday night is aftermath. Stage before the overnight New Mexico rain shield; start extraction the same night if water is inside. Turn around, don’t drown.

What this is not

This is not a regional derecho and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. Tropical Depression Fay is mid-Atlantic open ocean and becoming post-tropical — not a U.S. land threat. Hurricane Polo and Tropical Storm Odalys remain eastern Pacific systems and are not mainland landfall threats today. Today’s work, if it verifies, is scattered: southern New Mexico flash flood, Utah–Colorado wind/hail, Southeast gusts, leftover Appalachian water.

Looking ahead

SPC Day 2 and Day 3 currently show no severe thunderstorm areas. That does not cancel tonight’s New Mexico flood problem or this afternoon’s Marginal corridors. Watch the next Storm Tracker update rather than assuming the Moderate rainfall risk is the last line of the week.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources: SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook issued 7:22 a.m. CDT Tuesday, September 22, 2026 (Smith/Mead); SPC watches page updated 11:44:05 UTC Tuesday, September 22, 2026; WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook updated 0809 UTC Tuesday, September 22, 2026 (Chenard); NWS Albuquerque and El Paso/Santa Teresa flood watches; overnight NWS Charleston, West Virginia flash-flood warnings; NHC advisories (Fay, Polo, Odalys).

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watch, and local storm reports, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay. Prior desk: Storm Updates September 21, 2026 — Appalachians–Southeast Marginal / Central Appalachians Flood Slight.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

September 22, 2026

Storm Updates: Appalachians–Southeast Marginal, Texas South Plains Hail Pulse — Monday, September 21, 2026 (Morning)

This is a live Monday morning snapshot of U.S. local-storm activity as of early Monday, September 21, 2026. The Storm Prediction Center 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook holds a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms from parts of the Southeast into the central Appalachians, and a second Marginal Risk over the Texas South Plains. Isolated damaging wind gusts of 50 to 60 mph are the main threat along the front this afternoon. Isolated large hail and severe gusts are possible later today on the Caprock. No convective watches are currently valid. Severe Thunderstorm Watch 674, last night’s eastern Colorado and extreme western Kansas box, has expired.

These are county-scale thunderstorms, not a U.S. mainland tropical landfall. Tropical Storm Fay is several hundred miles southwest of the Azores and is not a U.S. land threat. Restoration exposure today is leftover tree and roof work from last night’s Ohio Valley and High Plains cells, plus a new wind-damage pulse if the front fires this afternoon from Kentucky into West Virginia and Virginia. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

Overnight into this morning

Radar this morning shows a parade of three mesoscale convective vortices moving east over the Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians, mostly on the cool side of a cold front. That is leftover organization from Sunday night, not a new watch. Local storm reports on the SPC day that closed at 12 UTC Monday include no tornadoes. The hail corridor was eastern Colorado: golf-ball to baseball-size stones around Holyoke, Alvin, Genoa, Boyero, Wild Horse, Kit Carson, Eads, and south of Brandon in Phillips, Yuma, Lincoln, Cheyenne, and Kiowa counties. One social-media measurement near Brandon was 3.10 inches. A spotter windshield was damaged near Wild Horse. A separate 2.00-inch hail report came from Liberty in Union County, Indiana.

Wind reports overnight were the restoration ticket east of the High Plains. Trees and lines came down across Christian, Greene, Jasper, and Lawrence counties in southwest Missouri, including a tree on a house in Pierce City. Illinois reports included a shed roof in Jasper County, 64 mph at Olney-Noble Airport, and power-line damage near Witt, Ramsey, and Noble. Southwestern Ohio logged trees in Kettering, Bellbrook, and Greene County after midnight. After 3 UTC, NWS Charleston territory picked up trees and blocked roads in Vinton and Meigs counties, Ohio, and in Wirt, Calhoun, and Gilmer counties, West Virginia, including more than 1,200 customers without power along Highway 7 north-northeast of Syracuse. Separate tree-down reports ran through Anderson and Laurens counties in South Carolina, Walton County, Georgia, and a string of Alabama, Georgia, and Florida Panhandle counties from Taylor and Iron City to De Funiak Springs and I-10 mile marker 70.

Flash flood warning posts already on this desk overnight covered pieces of Muskingum, Washington, Morgan, and Gallia counties in Ohio and Braxton plus north-central West Virginia. Those warnings were timed to expire in the early morning hours. Treat them as just-hit water, not a new outlook. Confirm county status on weather.gov before you treat a warning as still live.

What is live this morning

No SPC watches are valid as of 1136 UTC Monday. The Day 1 outlook valid 1300 UTC Monday through 1200 UTC Tuesday is Marginal only. The front this afternoon is forecast from northern Mississippi northeast to western Virginia. Dewpoints ahead of it run upper 60s to lower 70s from the lower Mississippi Valley into West Virginia. SPC expects scattered to numerous single-cell and multicell storms after peak heating, with the better flow on the northern edge of the risk — Kentucky, West Virginia, and Virginia. Stronger downdrafts can produce 50 to 60 mph gusts and pockets of wind damage before cells weaken in the early evening.

The Texas South Plains Marginal is a separate, isolated pulse. A front and residual outflow drape the Caprock this afternoon. Guidance supports scattered storms in a moist plume during peak heating, with a couple of stronger cells capable of large hail and severe gusts before they die in the evening.

The Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook page still carried Sunday’s discussion into the 12 UTC Monday valid end, with Slight Risk language over portions of the Midwest and Ohio Valley plus the northern High Plains from the prior period. That is the moisture that already produced last night’s Ohio–West Virginia flood warnings. Use the live WPC graphic and local NWS flash-flood products for today’s water overlay rather than treating Sunday’s Slight as a new box.

Hotspot 1 — Kentucky, West Virginia, Virginia, and the central Appalachians

This is the northern edge of today’s Marginal Risk and the part of the front with slightly stronger flow. Cities and counties to watch: Lexington and eastern Kentucky; Charleston, Huntington, Parkersburg, and the central West Virginia counties that already took trees overnight; western and northern Virginia including the Shenandoah and the Richmond-to-Charlottesville fringe of the outlook line. SPC maps the Marginal from near Greenville, Mississippi, northeast through Kentucky to near Parkersburg, then east toward Elkins, Charlottesville, and Richmond before dropping south through Raleigh and Athens toward Montgomery and Jackson.

Restoration read: wind first, water second. Last night already put trees on roads and lines in Meigs, Wirt, Calhoun, and Gilmer. Another round of 50–60 mph gusts this afternoon is more of the same — roof, siding, service drops — not a regional derecho. If a cell trains on ground that flooded overnight, treat that ZIP as a water job by evening.

Hotspot 2 — Southeast ahead of the front

The same Marginal Risk covers central Mississippi, Alabama, northern Georgia, and the western Carolinas. Instability can peak in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range from central Mississippi into western North Carolina, but deep-layer shear is weak. Mode is single cells and disorganized multicells. Sunday evening already produced trees in Anderson and Laurens, South Carolina; Monroe and Walton, Georgia; and the Florida–Alabama line. Today is a repeat isolated-wind desk, not a watch.

Restoration read: stage locally if your county is on the warm side of the front. Do not move a regional crew on a Marginal that SPC itself frames as isolated 50–60 mph gusts.

Hotspot 3 — Texas South Plains, plus leftover High Plains hail

The second Marginal sits from near Clovis and Hobbs across the Caprock toward Childress and Big Spring. Isolated large hail and severe gusts later today are the threat. That is not last night’s Colorado supercell corridor. Last night’s work is already on the books in Cheyenne, Kiowa, Lincoln, Yuma, and Phillips counties — baseball hail, damaged glass, and agricultural hits. Do not send the same crew to Lubbock this afternoon and Eads this morning without checking which county actually has a warning now.

Just hit

Sunday afternoon’s High Plains Slight Risk and Watch 674 are closed. The verified story there is large hail, not a tornado. Southwest Missouri trees, Illinois wind, Ohio–West Virginia overnight trees and flash-flood warnings, and scattered Southeast wind reports are the other closed tickets. Tropical Storm Fay is not a U.S. land story.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS level	Status this morning
KY / WV / VA / central Appalachians	Isolated damaging wind 50–60 mph, lightning	SPC Marginal	Afternoon pulse; no watch
MS / AL / GA / western Carolinas	Isolated wind, wet microbursts	SPC Marginal	Diurnal; no watch
Texas South Plains / Caprock	Isolated large hail, severe gusts	SPC Marginal	Late afternoon–evening
Eastern Colorado High Plains	Baseball hail, glass, crop	Watch 674 expired	Just-hit / aftermath
SW Missouri / Illinois / SW Ohio	Trees, lines, isolated structural	LSRs overnight	Just-hit
SE Ohio / north-central WV	Trees, flash flood leftover	Overnight FFWs expired or expiring	Aftermath / check county
Atlantic vs. U.S. mainland	Fay near the Azores; no U.S. formation	NHC TWO	Quiet on the mainland

What this means for restoration teams

Fifty to sixty miles an hour is roof, siding, gutter, and tree-on-structure work. Last night’s Colorado hail is a glass and roof-inspection desk in a handful of High Plains counties, not a regional CAT. Ohio and West Virginia water from overnight flash-flood warnings is extraction and a 24–48 hour mold clock where water entered. Do not staff today’s Marginal as if Watch 674 were still up.

Property owners should photograph damage in daylight if it is safe, call the carrier, and start extraction the same day if water is inside. Turn around, don’t drown on leftover high water in southeast Ohio and north-central West Virginia.

What this is not

This is not a Slight Risk day, not a live watch, and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. The work today, if it verifies, will be scattered: a wind swath through a Kentucky or West Virginia county, a hailer on the Caprock, leftover trees from Sunday night. That is the local-storm pattern this desk should staff.

Looking ahead

The next Day 1 outlook is scheduled by 1630 UTC. SPC Day 2 is also Marginal. Day 3 is currently no severe thunderstorms. Watch the afternoon Storm Tracker update rather than assuming this morning’s Marginal is the last line of the week.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center Sep 21, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook (Smith/Mead, 0733 AM CDT); SPC current watches page updated 1136 UTC Monday with no valid watches and most recently issued Watch 674; SPC preliminary local storm reports for 20260920 1200 UTC through 20260921 1159 UTC; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook page; National Hurricane Center Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook 800 AM EDT Monday; National Weather Service warning text already logged on this desk for southeast Ohio and north-central West Virginia.

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watch, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay. Prior desk: Sunday, September 20 storm updates — Oklahoma and High Plains Slight Risk.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

September 21, 2026

Storm Updates: Carolinas–Georgia + Iowa Marginal, Upper Mississippi Flood Slight — Friday, September 18, 2026 (Morning)

This is a live Friday morning snapshot of U.S. local-storm activity as of early Friday, September 18, 2026. Overnight convection dumped tennis-ball hail on Bingham County, Idaho, knocked power lines down near Lewisville, and forced National Weather Service flash-flood warnings for the Idaho Falls and Rexburg areas that expired before dawn. The Storm Prediction Center 1300 UTC Day 1 outlook holds a Marginal Risk of isolated severe thunderstorms from the Carolinas into northern Georgia, across Iowa, over parts of the central High Plains, and again in the Intermountain West. No convective watches are valid. The Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook holds Slight Risks over the Upper Mississippi Valley and southwest Montana. There is no named tropical cyclone threatening U.S. land.

These are county- and ZIP-scale thunderstorms and flash-flood pulses, not a mainland hurricane landfall. Restoration exposure today is leftover hail and interior water in eastern Idaho, isolated damaging gusts on the Carolina Piedmont and in Iowa this afternoon, and training rain from southern Minnesota into Wisconsin tonight. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What is live this morning

SPC issued the 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook at 0719 AM CDT. Valid 181300Z–191200Z. Headline: an isolated severe risk later today into the evening for the Carolinas into northern Georgia, Iowa, parts of the central High Plains, and parts of the Intermountain West. Categorical risk is Marginal over about 171,000 square miles and roughly 21 million people. Wind is the shared 5 percent contour. A 2 percent tornado contour sits over north-central Iowa (Ames, Ankeny, Mason City, Fort Dodge, Marshalltown). A 5 percent hail contour remains over the Salt Lake City–Provo corridor.

No Severe Thunderstorm Watch or Tornado Watch is in effect. The most recently issued watch on the SPC board is Watch 669, already expired. Today’s 1200 UTC–onward local storm report page is empty as of this desk: no tornado, hail, or wind reports on the new cycle yet. Last night’s work is on the September 17 cycle.

WPC’s 1034 UTC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, valid 12Z Friday through 12Z Saturday, holds a Slight Risk of rainfall exceeding flash-flood guidance over the Upper Mississippi Valley (southern Minnesota into Wisconsin and adjacent Iowa/Illinois) and a separate Slight over southwest Montana. Marginal flood pockets cover leftover Southwest terrain, the northern High Plains, South Florida and the Keys, a Midwest/Great Lakes corridor, and the Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians. Guidance still supports 2 to 4 inches in the better Upper Midwest swath.

The National Hurricane Center 800 AM EDT Atlantic outlook and companion eastern and central Pacific outlooks list no tropical cyclones. That sentence stays off the restoration board unless NHC names something that threatens U.S. land.

Overnight into this morning

Thursday’s SPC report cycle (1200 UTC September 17 through 1159 UTC September 18) is the just-hit file. One brief tornado was reported 11 miles north-northeast of Chappell in Garden County, Nebraska, around 0034 UTC. Hail clustered on eastern Idaho: 1.00 to 1.75 inches around Blackfoot, Shelley, Firth, Moreland, and Menan; 2.50 inches (tennis ball) one mile north-northeast of Rose in Bingham County; 1.25 inches at Gannett in Blaine County; 1.00 inch east of Alton in Bear Lake County. Utah added 1.50 inches at Midway in Wasatch County. Nebraska High Plains added 1.50 inches east-southeast of Broadwater. Missouri picked up 1.00 inch near Saint Paul in St. Charles County.

Wind: power lines down in Lewisville, Jefferson County, Idaho; 61 mph at the INL rover south-southwest of Mud Lake; trees and shingles near Saint Paul, Missouri; a 59 mph gust at Truth or Consequences, New Mexico; trees down in Tippecanoe and Carroll counties, Indiana; a large tree on Yalta Drive in Beavercreek, Ohio; several large trees in Ashland, Kentucky, with one person injured and transported when a tree fell. Overnight flash-flood warnings for the Idaho Falls area (until 2:00 AM MDT) and the Rexburg area (until 2:45 AM MDT) have expired. Those were water jobs on eastern Idaho drainages after the same hail cores, not a new watch this morning.

Hotspot 1 — Carolinas into northern Georgia

A cluster of weak thunderstorms this morning over Kentucky and West Virginia rides south on northerly flow around a mid-level high over the Ark-La-Tex. SPC expects rejuvenation near convective outflow along the Virginia–North Carolina border, then scattered storms over the Piedmont into northern Georgia as the boundary layer heats. Isolated 50–60 mph gusts are the advertised threat. Cities inside the Marginal contour include Charlotte, Raleigh, Greensboro, and Atlanta.

Restoration read: wind first, not a tornado outbreak. Stage tarps and tree crews for late afternoon into evening. Photograph roofs in remaining daylight only if it is safe. This is a scatter of cores, not a watch-boxed line.

Hotspot 2 — Iowa and the Upper Mississippi Valley

A front lies from the lower Ohio Valley west into the mid Missouri Valley, with a weak surface low over western Nebraska. Lower-70s dewpoints sit south of the boundary. SPC favors thunderstorms over Iowa into far southern Minnesota where heating and low-level forcing erode inhibition. Primary hazard is marginally severe gusts. Enlarged hodographs near the warm front leave a localized chance of a couple of weak, short-lived supercells — that is the 2 percent tornado contour, not a Slight Risk upgrade. Upscale growth late evening would drift toward the southwest Great Lakes and lose buoyancy.

WPC’s Slight Risk is the organized water ticket. A disturbance tracking out of the Dakotas across southern Minnesota into Wisconsin can support 2–4 inches where the low-level jet blossoms the rain shield. That is wet drywall and a 24–48 hour mold clock in the better swaths, not a river-flood headline yet.

Restoration read: Iowa wind this afternoon, Minnesota–Wisconsin water tonight. Do not staff both with the same crew without checking which county has a warning now.

Hotspot 3 — Intermountain West and central High Plains

A mid-level trough crosses the Intermountain West. Dewpoints in the 50s from northern Utah into western Wyoming valleys, MLCAPE 1000–1200 J/kg, and moderate shear support isolated severe gusts and hail again late afternoon and evening — the same corridor that just put tennis-ball hail on Bingham County. On the High Plains, a vorticity maximum over New Mexico may help isolated storms grow into a small eastward cluster over eastern Colorado into southwest Nebraska and northwest Kansas, with isolated severe gusts on outflow.

Southwest Montana sits under WPC’s second Slight Risk after Thursday’s cell behavior and ensemble 2-inch QPF. Rates can still beat flash-flood guidance even if storms stay progressive. Residual Marginal flood language covers New Mexico and Arizona terrain for one more diurnal cycle.

Just hit

Eastern Idaho hail, the expired Idaho Falls and Rexburg flash-flood warnings, the Garden County brief tornado, and the Ashland, Kentucky tree injury are yesterday’s tickets. Thursday afternoon’s Storm Tracker already carried the Idaho–Utah Marginal and Dakotas flood Slight on the prior Day 1 package. This morning desk moves the live outlook east onto the Carolinas and Iowa and slides the flood Slight onto the Upper Mississippi Valley and southwest Montana.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS / WPC level	Status this morning
Carolinas / northern GA	Isolated 50–60 mph gusts	SPC Marginal	Afternoon–evening cells
Iowa / southern MN	Gusts; localized brief tornado	SPC Marginal; 2% tornado	Afternoon into evening
Southern MN / WI / adjacent IA–IL	Flash flood, 2–4″ swaths	WPC Slight	Today’s organized water ticket
Northern UT / ID / WY valleys	Isolated hail and severe gusts	SPC Marginal (5% hail UT)	Late afternoon–evening
E CO / SW NE / NW KS	Isolated severe gusts	SPC Marginal	Evening cluster possible
Southwest Montana	Flash flood on progressive cells	WPC Slight	Afternoon–evening
Bingham / Jefferson / Madison ID	Hail, wires, expired FFWs	Aftermath	Just-hit desk
Atlantic / Gulf vs. U.S. mainland	No landfalling cyclone	NHC quiet	Quiet

What this means for restoration teams

Idaho hail is already on cars, windows, and roofs in Bingham County. That is same-day emergency board-up and a multi-day supplement fight, not a forecast. Carolina and Iowa wind at 50–60 mph is roof, siding, gutter, and tree-on-structure work if cores verify. Upper Mississippi Valley rain is extraction and drying if 2–4 inch swaths land on saturated ground. A 2 percent tornado contour is a narrow, short-lived threat — staff it as a local damage survey if a warning verifies, not as a regional event.

For teams near Charlotte, Raleigh, Atlanta, Des Moines, Ames, or the Salt Lake valley: stage before peak heating, not after the first warning. Property owners should photograph damage in daylight if it is safe, call the carrier, and start extraction the same night if water is inside.

What this is not

This is not a Slight Risk convective day, not a live watch, and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. The work today, if it comes, will be scattered: a wind-damaged street on the Piedmont, a brief spin-up near an Iowa warm front, another hail core in a Utah or Idaho valley, a flooded underpass in southern Minnesota or Wisconsin. That is the local-storm pattern this desk should staff.

Looking ahead

Saturday’s Day 2 outlook is already a Slight Risk of scattered severe wind and hail over portions of the central Plains, with isolated severe storms possible from the High Plains and central Rockies into the Midwest and Southeast. Sunday is Marginal. Day 4–8 has no 15 percent areas. Watch the afternoon Storm Tracker for the 1630 UTC Day 1 update rather than assuming this morning’s Marginal is the last line of the weekend.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center Sep 18, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook (Smith/Mead); SPC current watches page (none valid; last watch 669); SPC local storm reports for 20260917 and 20260918; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook issued 1034 UTC Friday; National Hurricane Center 800 AM EDT Friday Tropical Weather Outlook; National Weather Service Pocatello flash-flood warning text for Idaho Falls and Rexburg, now expired.

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watch, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay. Prior desk: Thursday afternoon Storm Updates: Idaho–Utah Marginal, Dakotas Flood Slight. Related overnight posts: Idaho Falls flash-flood warning and Rexburg flash-flood warning.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

September 18, 2026