Tag: Arizona

Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Oct 12

Tropical: None · Severe: Quiet · Flood: Slight

What Changed

SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook (latest 0100 UTC / 7:44 PM CDT Monday, October 12, 2026, valid 130100Z–131200Z) continues NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST. Summary: organized severe weather is not expected tonight. A few strong storms possible in central Kansas early this evening (weak buoyancy, late timing) and elevated convection over the lower Great Lakes (isolated small hail); no severe threat. Unchanged from morning desk and 1300 UTC. No watches or mesoscale discussions valid. Zero LSRs for the October 12 window.
WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 1553 UTC / 11:53 AM EDT Monday, valid 16Z Mon–12Z Tue) maintains a Slight Risk across parts of the Great Basin and Southwest. No Moderate or higher. Residual from Tropical Storm Rachel under the western trough. Category unchanged.
Flash Flood Warnings and broader Flood Watches for the Paria River corridor (AZ/UT) and related areas expired earlier Monday. Residual runoff possible in slot canyons, burn scars, and downstream. Mid-Atlantic residual remains closed. Nothing reopened on the severe board.
No tropical storm or hurricane watches or warnings on the U.S. coast or Gulf of Mexico. Post-Tropical Isaias fully dissipated. Residual Rachel moisture is the sole tropical influence, tracked by WPC as flood residual. Hurricane Simon remains offshore Mexico (near Cabo Corrientes) with Hurricane Warning on offshore waters only; no U.S. land threat.
SPC Day 2 Outlook (1730 UTC) places a Slight Risk over portions of the southern and central Plains into the Lower Missouri Valley for Tuesday afternoon into night.

Live Status

As of late Monday evening, October 12, 2026 (~9:14 PM PDT), the national desk remains Quiet Pulse. SPC Day 1 holds zero severe thunderstorm probability areas and lists no watches. Organized severe from Isaias remnants closed overnight and stayed closed. Zero local storm reports received today.

WPC Day 1 ERO keeps the Slight Risk over the Great Basin and Southwest (western/central Mogollon Rim into northwest AZ, Wasatch and canyon areas of UT). Residual Rachel moisture supports isolated to scattered thunderstorms with locally heavy rain possible into the evening. Antecedent wet ground, burn scars, and slot canyons elevate flash-flood potential. The threat is expected to wind down after Monday night as the pattern shifts east. Paria products have expired; residual runoff possible as water moves through the system.

No named tropical cyclone threatens or has just hit U.S. land. Isaias is fully dissipated. Residual Rachel moisture is the only residual tropical influence. Hurricane Simon stays well clear of the U.S. Residual minor river flooding persists in the Carolinas and other basins from prior rains, non-severe.

Hotspots

Southwest / Great Basin residual flood — WPC Slight ERO. Locally heavy rain possible into the evening over AZ Mogollon Rim, northwest AZ, and UT Wasatch/canyons. Burn-scar and slot-canyon runoff risk elevated. Highest residual over western AZ terrain; winding down overnight.

Paria River corridor (AZ/UT) — FFW and Flood Watch expired. Residual slot canyon and Lees Ferry risk as the confirmed flood wave moves downstream.

Rest of CONUS — Quiet. SPC no severe areas. Isolated elevated thunderstorms possible over the Upper Great Lakes or near the KS cold front, but no severe threat. Residual minor river flooding in the Carolinas and LA/TX remains non-severe.

Just Hit

No new SPC local storm reports for the October 12 window. The organized severe work from Sunday is closed. The live residual work was the Paria River flood wave from residual Rachel moisture, which has passed the gauge and is moving through the system. Flood products expired this afternoon.

Pulse Table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS / WPC level	Status this evening
Southwest / Great Basin (W/C AZ, NW AZ, SW UT, Wasatch)	Heavy rain, flash flood, burn-scar/slot-canyon runoff	WPC Slight ERO	Residual live from Rachel; threat into evening then shifts east
Paria River corridor (Coconino AZ / Kane UT)	Residual flash flood, slot canyons, Lees Ferry	FFW and Flood Watches expired	Wave passed; residual downstream; products closed
Mid-Atlantic residual	None	SPC none; WPC none	Closed overnight; remains closed
Carolinas / LA-TX rivers	Minor river flooding residual	Flood Warnings ongoing non-severe	Receding from prior rains
CONUS severe watches / Day 1 outlook	None	SPC: no severe areas; no watches; 0 LSRs today	Quiet

Restoration Read

Quiet Pulse on the severe side. The residual work is water on the Southwest and Great Basin. Teams already on residual Isaias impacts in the Southeast continue extraction and drying. In AZ and UT, residual slot-canyon and burn-scar runoff risk continues through this evening before the pattern shifts east. No new wind or hail tickets. Standard quiet-day posture: check weather.gov for the county and stay ready for the residual flood window before it ends overnight.

What This Is Not

Not an official warning. Not a Slight or higher severe day. Not a Moderate or higher flood day. Not a tropical threat to the U.S. coast or Gulf. Not a reason to invent activity. Quiet is the status.

Looking Ahead One Day

The western trough shifts east. Residual flood threat ends after Monday night. SPC Day 2 Convective Outlook (1730 UTC, updated 11:58 AM CDT Monday, October 12, 2026, valid 131200Z–141200Z) carries a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms across portions of the southern and central Plains into the Lower Missouri Valley Tuesday afternoon into night (large hail and damaging winds possible; isolated tornado near the triple point). Isolated elevated storms possible further east. Check the next Day 1 for any evolution.

Rising Queries

Residual interest: “hurricane tropical storm”, “power outage near me” (tied to recent Isaias residual and cleanup). Trends data limited this run; residual queries only.

Storm Hubs

Storm hub: Hurricane Isaias 2026 | Tropical Storm Rachel 2026. Dated entries link back to this desk and the morning desk. No active named storms threatening U.S. land.

Morning desk: Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Oct 12 Morning.

Sources: spc.noaa.gov (Day 1 outlook, watches, reports), WPC ERO, weather.gov (watches/warnings), nhc.noaa.gov (no U.S. tropical threats).

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

October 12, 2026

Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Oct 12 Morning

Tropical: None · Severe: Quiet · Flood: Slight

What Changed

SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook (0600 UTC / 12:35 AM CDT Monday, October 12, 2026, valid 121200Z–131200Z, and subsequent updates including 0100 UTC) holds NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST. Summary: No severe weather is forecast across the U.S. today and tonight. Dropped from the prior Marginal residual on Mid-Atlantic and Desert Southwest. No convective watches valid. Zero LSRs for the period.
WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 1553 UTC / 11:53 AM EDT Monday, October 12, 2026, valid 16Z Mon–12Z Tue) maintains a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall across parts of the Great Basin & Southwest. No Moderate or higher. Residual from dissipated Tropical Storm Rachel. Unchanged category.
Active Flash Flood Warnings in southern Utah (Zion, Forsyth burn scar, Paria corridor) expired earlier Monday. Residual runoff possible in burn scars and slot canyons. Mid-Atlantic residual closed. Nothing reopened on the severe board.
No tropical storm or hurricane watches or warnings on the U.S. coast or Gulf. Post-Tropical Isaias fully dissipated. Residual Rachel moisture tracked only as WPC flood residual. Hurricane Simon (Eastern Pacific) offshore Mexico, no U.S. land threat. Quiet Pulse holds.

Live Status

As of the Monday morning desk, October 12, 2026, the national picture is Quiet Pulse. SPC Day 1 lists no severe thunderstorm probability areas and no watches. Organized severe from Isaias remnants closed overnight and stayed closed. Isolated thunderstorms possible near a cold front across the Great Lakes or in the Intermountain West under southwest flow, but no severe threat forecast. Zero local storm reports.

WPC Day 1 ERO holds the Slight Risk over the Great Basin and Southwest (western/central Mogollon Rim into northwest Arizona, Wasatch and canyon areas of Utah). Residual moisture from Tropical Storm Rachel supports isolated to scattered thunderstorms with locally heavy rain possible through the day into evening. Antecedent wet ground, burn scars, and slot canyons keep flash-flood potential elevated even after warnings expired. Pattern expected to shift east after Monday night.

No named tropical cyclone threatens or has just hit U.S. land. Isaias is fully dissipated. Residual Rachel moisture is the sole residual tropical influence, tracked by WPC. Residual minor river flooding persists in the Carolinas and other basins from prior rains; non-severe. High wind products in the Intermountain West are non-severe.

Pulse Table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS / WPC level	Status this morning
Southwest / Great Basin (W/C AZ, NW AZ, SW UT, Wasatch)	Heavy rain, flash flood, burn-scar/slot-canyon runoff	WPC Slight ERO	Residual live from Rachel; threat through day then shifts east
Paria River corridor (Coconino AZ / Kane UT)	Residual flash flood, slot canyons	FFW and Flood Watches expired	Wave passed; residual downstream possible
Mid-Atlantic residual / eastern NC-SE VA	None	SPC none; WPC none	Closed overnight; remains closed
Carolinas rivers	Minor river flooding residual	Flood Warnings ongoing non-severe	Receding from prior rains
CONUS severe watches / Day 1 outlook	None	SPC: no severe areas; no watches; 0 LSRs	Quiet

Rising Queries

Trends unreachable.

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watches, and local storm reports, WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay, and nhc.noaa.gov for residual products.

Storm hubs (residual): Hurricane Isaias 2026 | Tropical Storm Rachel 2026. No active named storms threatening U.S. land.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

October 12, 2026

Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Oct 11

Tropical: None (Isaias & Rachel dissipated) · Severe: Marginal · Flood: Slight

What Changed

SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook (0100 UTC / 7:47 PM CDT Sunday, October 11, 2026, valid 120100Z–121200Z) holds only a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of the Mid-Atlantic (isolated tornado threat near the coast for a few more hours) and Desert Southwest (isolated severe gusts). No Slight or higher risk remains. Current watches page lists no convective watches valid; Tornado Watch 681 expired earlier.
WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 0056 UTC Monday, October 12 / 8:56 PM EDT Sunday, October 11, 2026) maintains a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall across parts of the Great Basin and Southwest from residual Rachel moisture. Moderate Risk dropped. Mid-Atlantic reduced to Marginal Risk. Isaias surface low dissipated over West Virginia.
Active Flash Flood Warnings continue in southern Utah, including extensions for Zion National Park (West Central Kane / East Central Washington counties) and the Forsyth burn scar (Central Washington County), with observed flash flooding and considerable damage threat reported.
No tropical storm or hurricane watches or warnings remain in effect for the U.S. coast or Gulf. Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias has fully dissipated. Remnants of Rachel continue to support residual moisture in the Southwest/Great Basin. Hurricane Simon remains offshore Mexico and does not threaten U.S. land.
Preliminary tornado reports from Sunday afternoon across central and eastern North Carolina (including Candor, Clarendon, Atkinson, Fayetteville area, and near Raleigh) remain under NWS survey. The organized severe window is closed.

Live Status

As of late Sunday evening, October 11, 2026 (around 8:12 p.m. PDT / 11:12 p.m. EDT), the day has entered Quiet Pulse status. SPC holds no Slight or higher convective risk and lists no current watches. Residual Marginal Risk exists for isolated tornadoes near the Mid-Atlantic coast for a few more hours and isolated severe gusts in the Desert Southwest under leftover shear and moisture.

Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias has dissipated. Its surface low elongated into a trough over West Virginia and was absorbed. Residual rainfall of 1 to 3 inches remains possible overnight across portions of the Central Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic under a WPC Marginal Risk, but the heavy rain threat is decreasing. Earlier overnight totals of several inches produced flash flooding and landslides in western North Carolina; residual Flood Warnings persist in some elevated areas.

In the Southwest and Great Basin, residual moisture from Post-Tropical Cyclone Rachel supports a WPC Slight Risk of excessive rainfall. The highest residual risk is across western Arizona, with a broader Slight covering northwest Arizona into portions of the Great Basin. Active Flash Flood Warnings cover Zion National Park and the Forsyth burn scar in southern Utah, where thunderstorms have produced heavy rain and observed flash flooding with considerable damage threat. Vulnerable locations include burn scars, slot canyons, dry washes, and urban areas. High Wind Warnings and Wind Advisories remain in effect across parts of Arizona, California, and Nevada.

No tropical storm or hurricane watches or warnings are in effect for the U.S. coast or Gulf of Mexico. All prior tropical products for Isaias and Rachel have been discontinued or reduced to residual flood tracking by WPC.

Hotspots

Southwest / Great Basin residual flood: Primary live residual under WPC Slight Risk from Rachel remnants. Active Flash Flood Warnings in southern Utah (Zion National Park, Forsyth burn scar) with observed flooding and considerable damage threat. Highest residual risk western Arizona into Great Basin. Burn scars, canyons, and urban areas remain vulnerable.

Mid-Atlantic residual severe and flood: Organized window closed after Tornado Watch 681 expired. Multiple preliminary tornadoes in central and eastern North Carolina under survey (Candor, Clarendon, Atkinson, Fayetteville, Raleigh area). Residual Marginal Risk near the coast this evening. WPC Marginal residual rain possible overnight.

Blue Ridge / Central Appalachians residual: Decreasing flood risk as Isaias dissipated. Significant overnight rainfall already produced flash flooding and landslides in western North Carolina. Residual Marginal Risk overnight.

Just Hit

Sunday afternoon tornadoes across central and eastern North Carolina, including observed near Atkinson (Pender County), preliminary or confirmed near Candor (Montgomery — building destroyed), Clarendon (Columbus — structures destroyed), Fayetteville area (Cumberland), Jordan Lake (Chatham), and near Raleigh/Clayton. NWS surveys ongoing. Residual Flash Flood Warnings active in southern Utah from Rachel moisture. Power outages from earlier Isaias impacts continue, with Florida and Alabama still seeing the largest numbers.

Pulse Table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS / WPC level	Status this evening
Mid-Atlantic coast / eastern NC-SE VA	Isolated residual tornado, residual flood	SPC Marginal (Slight closed, Watch 681 expired)	Window largely closed; residual isolated this evening
Southwest / Great Basin (S CA / S NV / NW AZ / SW UT)	Heavy rain, flash flood, gusty winds	WPC Slight excessive rainfall; active FFW in UT	Residual live, Rachel remnants; Zion/Forsyth active
Blue Ridge / Central Appalachians residual	Upslope residual rain, flash flood, landslides	WPC Marginal excessive rainfall	Decreasing; overnight heavy totals already on ground
Tennessee Valley / Isaias residual	Dissipated	Post-tropical dissipated	Surface low absorbed; residual decreasing

Rising Queries

Rising queries tied to today’s residual: “power outage near me” (driven by residual Isaias impacts in the Southeast), “tornado near me” / North Carolina tornado reports, residual flood and flash flood queries for the Southwest and Utah burn scars. Trends data partial this run.

Restoration Read

Coastal wind and surge work from the Friday night Destin landfall remains closed. Immediate residual tickets are inland freshwater extraction and tree/road clearance from Isaias rain in the Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic, plus survey of the afternoon North Carolina tornadoes. On the West Coast, residual flash flooding under the Rachel Slight Risk, especially burn scars and canyons in southern Utah and western Arizona. Distinguish residual Appalachian work from Southwest residual. Power outage restoration continues across the Southeast.

What This Is Not

This is not an active hurricane or tropical-storm warning on the Gulf or Atlantic coast. All Storm Surge and Tropical Storm Warnings for Isaias and Rachel have been discontinued. It is not a plains or Midwest severe outbreak. The organized hazards were the earlier SPC Slight Risk and now-expired Tornado Watch 681 in eastern North Carolina and southeast Virginia (with multiple tornado reports), and the WPC Slight (Moderate dropped) excessive-rainfall risk in the Great Basin and Southwest from Rachel remnants. No new NHC hurricane or storm-surge warning has been issued for U.S. land this run.

Looking Ahead

Isaias remnants are fully dissipated. SPC Day 2 outlook shows no severe thunderstorm areas forecast for Monday. Rachel remnants will continue residual heavy rainfall and gusty winds over the Southwest before further dissipation. Watch the next Storm Tracker update for verification of the Mid-Atlantic tornado reports and any further contraction of the Southwest flood products.

Sources and How to Verify

Primary sources, dated Sunday, October 11, 2026: NOAA Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Convective Outlook (0100 UTC October 12, Marginal Risk Mid-Atlantic and Desert Southwest) and Current Watches (no watches currently valid; most recently #681); Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook and Discussion (Slight Risk Great Basin and Southwest, updated 0056 UTC); NHC final products for Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias and Remnants of Rachel. Morning desk: Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Oct 11 Morning.

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook and local storm reports, WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay, and nhc.noaa.gov for residual products.

Storm hub: Hurricane Isaias 2026 | Tropical Storm Rachel 2026. Dated entries link this desk and the morning desk.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

October 11, 2026

Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Oct 11 Morning

Tropical: None (Isaias & Rachel dissipated) · Severe: Marginal · Flood: Slight

What Changed

SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook (0100 UTC / 7:47 PM CDT Sunday, October 11, 2026, valid 120100Z–121200Z) holds only a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of the Mid-Atlantic (isolated tornado threat near the coast for a few more hours) and Desert Southwest (isolated severe gusts). No Slight or higher risk remains. Current watches page lists no convective watches valid; Tornado Watch 681 expired earlier.
WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 0056 UTC Monday, October 12 / 8:56 PM EDT Sunday, October 11, 2026) maintains a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall across parts of the Great Basin and Southwest from residual Rachel moisture. Moderate Risk dropped. Mid-Atlantic reduced to Marginal Risk. Isaias surface low dissipated over West Virginia.
Active Flash Flood Warnings continue in southern Utah, including extensions for Zion National Park (West Central Kane / East Central Washington counties) and the Forsyth burn scar (Central Washington County), with observed flash flooding and considerable damage threat reported.
No tropical storm or hurricane watches or warnings remain in effect for the U.S. coast or Gulf. Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias has fully dissipated. Remnants of Rachel continue to support residual moisture in the Southwest/Great Basin. Hurricane Simon remains offshore Mexico and does not threaten U.S. land.
Preliminary tornado reports from Sunday afternoon across central and eastern North Carolina (including Candor, Clarendon, Atkinson, Fayetteville area, and near Raleigh) remain under NWS survey. The organized severe window is closed.

Live Status

Pulse Table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS / WPC level	Status this evening
Mid-Atlantic coast / eastern NC-SE VA	Isolated residual tornado, residual flood	SPC Marginal (Slight closed, Watch 681 expired)	Window largely closed; residual isolated this evening
Southwest / Great Basin (S CA / S NV / NW AZ / SW UT)	Heavy rain, flash flood, gusty winds	WPC Slight excessive rainfall; active FFW in UT	Residual live, Rachel remnants; Zion/Forsyth active
Blue Ridge / Central Appalachians residual	Upslope residual rain, flash flood, landslides	WPC Marginal excessive rainfall	Decreasing; overnight heavy totals already on ground
Tennessee Valley / Isaias residual	Dissipated	Post-tropical dissipated	Surface low absorbed; residual decreasing

Rising Queries

Trends unreachable this run.

Storm Hubs

Storm hub: Hurricane Isaias 2026 | Tropical Storm Rachel 2026. Dated entries link back to this desk.

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watches, and local storm reports, WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay, and nhc.noaa.gov for residual products.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

October 10, 2026

Storm Updates: Isaias Remnants & Rachel — Oct 10

Tropical: Post-Tropical Isaias · Post-Tropical Rachel (TS Watch) · Severe: Marginal · Flood: Moderate

What changed

Tornado Watch 679 expired at 8:00 p.m. EDT. SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook (0100 UTC / 7:57 p.m. CDT) dropped to Marginal Risk for isolated tornado threat this evening across the Carolinas and a few severe wind gusts in the Desert Southwest. No convective watches remain valid.
Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias as of WPC/NHC Public Advisory 18 at 10:00 p.m. CDT Saturday, October 10, 2026, is near 35.0N 86.7W, moving northeast at 16 mph with maximum sustained winds of 25 mph and minimum pressure 1009 mb. Position advanced well north of the Birmingham area reported earlier; flood threat continues into the Tennessee Valley and Southern Appalachians.
Post-Tropical Cyclone Rachel as of NHC Advisory 56 at 8:00 p.m. PDT is near 30.0N 116.5W, about 40 miles west of Punta Baja, Mexico, and 190 miles south of San Diego, moving north-northeast at 36 mph with maximum sustained winds of 60 mph and pressure 987 mb. Now classified post-tropical; Tropical Storm Watch continues for the Southern California coast from the U.S./Mexico border to the San Diego/Orange County line. Expected to move onshore over northern Baja tonight.
WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 2331 UTC) maintains Moderate Risk across the Southern Appalachians (northeast Georgia into Upstate South Carolina and western North Carolina) and portions of Southern California. Upslope totals of 3–5+ inches with local 6–10 inches still possible; southern California rain increasing with Rachel moisture.
Active Flash Flood Warnings are in effect for portions of western North Carolina (including Lake Lure / Chimney Rock area in Buncombe, Henderson, Rutherford counties) and central South Carolina (Aiken, Edgefield, Lexington, Saluda). Severe Thunderstorm Warnings for 60 mph wind gusts are active in southern Arizona (Pima, Pinal, Yuma counties) associated with Rachel moisture.

Live status

As of Saturday evening, October 10, 2026 (around 8:00 p.m. PDT / 11:00 p.m. EDT), Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias continues northeast across central Tennessee toward the Tennessee Valley while weakening. The primary organized threat has shifted to residual heavy rainfall and flash flooding, especially upslope into the Southern Appalachians. SPC notes scattered convection with an isolated tornado threat this evening across parts of the Carolinas along the eastern flank, supported by strong low-level shear, though the Slight Risk and Tornado Watch have expired. WPC Moderate excessive rainfall covers the Southern Appalachians and portions of Southern California.

Post-Tropical Cyclone Rachel is accelerating north-northeast toward northern Baja California and is forecast to move onshore tonight before dissipating early Sunday. Tropical Storm Watch remains for extreme Southern California coastal areas. Moisture from Rachel is driving increasing rainfall and thunderstorms across the Desert Southwest, with Moderate flash flood risk on far southern California and isolated severe wind gusts possible in southern Arizona.

Hotspots

Southern Appalachians (northeast Georgia, Upstate South Carolina, western North Carolina): Primary flood hotspot under the WPC Moderate Risk. Strong upslope flow continues to support heavy precip totals of 3–5+ inches, with maximums of 6–10 inches possible across far western North Carolina into the Upstate of South Carolina. Flash Flood Warnings are active near Lake Lure and Chimney Rock; additional minor flooding and isolated landslides remain possible overnight. Flood Watches cover much of the region.

Carolinas (eastern Georgia residual into South Carolina and southern North Carolina): SPC Marginal Risk for isolated tornado threat this evening with rotating cells in the moist airmass east of the Isaias remnants. Strong low-level shear supports brief tornadoes with semi-discrete cells, mainly across the eastern half of South Carolina into southern North Carolina. Flash Flood Warnings continue in central South Carolina. Threat diminishes overnight as the system moves northeast.

Southern California coast and Desert Southwest: Tropical Storm Watch remains on the San Diego County coastal areas. WPC Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall covers portions of Southern California as Rachel moisture is drawn northeastward; probabilities of 2+ inches highest in far southern California overnight. Burn scars, dry washes, and urban areas most at risk. Severe Thunderstorm Warnings for 60 mph wind gusts are active in southern Arizona. Rachel expected onshore tonight.

Just-hit

Isaias made landfall near Destin, Florida, Friday evening as a Category 2 hurricane with 105 mph winds before rapidly transitioning to post-tropical and weakening across the Florida Panhandle into Alabama and now Tennessee. Residual flash flooding and wind damage occurred Friday night into Saturday. Tornado Watch 679 produced confirmed tornadoes in Screven County, Georgia, and Allendale County, South Carolina, before expiring. Rachel remains offshore with no U.S. landfall yet; the center is expected to approach the Baja/border region tonight. Active Flash Flood Warnings and Severe Thunderstorm Warnings are ongoing.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS / WPC level	Status this evening
Southern Appalachians (NE GA / Upstate SC / W NC)	Flash flood, landslides, 3–10 in upslope	WPC Moderate excessive rainfall; active FFWs	Live, ongoing overnight
Carolinas (E SC / S NC)	Isolated tornadoes, residual heavy rain	SPC Marginal (tornado)	Evening threat, diminishing overnight
Southern California coast / Desert Southwest	Heavy rain, flash flood, TS winds possible, severe wind gusts	WPC Moderate; TS Watch (San Diego coastal); active SVR in AZ	Rachel approaching; increasing tonight
Central TN / Isaias center	Residual heavy rain, gusty wind	Post-tropical 25 mph	Inland NE at 16 mph, weakening
Rest of CONUS	No other organized severe	Marginal only in noted areas; no watches	Quiet elsewhere

Restoration read

Primary restoration exposure is flash flooding and potential landslides in the Southern Appalachians from residual Isaias moisture under the Moderate Risk, plus localized tornado and wind damage tickets from earlier in the Georgia–South Carolina zone. In Southern California and the Desert Southwest, Rachel will drive urban and flash flooding, strong winds, and coastal surf impacts overnight into Sunday. No widespread hurricane-force wind or storm-surge damage expected on U.S. land from current systems. Claims will be water-dominant with localized wind/tornado tickets. Sequence water extraction after the heaviest rates pass; do not stage in active flood or warning zones.

What this is not

This is not an active landfalling hurricane or tropical-storm warning on the U.S. Gulf or Atlantic coast. Isaias is post-tropical and inland; all tropical warnings have been discontinued. Rachel is post-tropical with a Tropical Storm Watch for extreme Southern California, not a hurricane or storm-surge warning. Severe risk is Marginal, not Slight or higher, and no convective watches are valid. The organized hazards are the WPC Moderate excessive-rainfall risks in the Southern Appalachians and Southern California, residual isolated tornado threat in the Carolinas, and severe wind gusts in southern Arizona.

Looking ahead one day

Sunday (Day 2): SPC holds a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over portions of the Mid-Atlantic (North Carolina, Virginia, southeast Maryland) for a few tornadoes and damaging wind gusts as the Isaias remnants continue northeast. Heavy rain and flash flood potential persist in the Appalachians. Rachel is expected to move inland over northern Baja and the southwestern United States tonight, bringing continued heavy rain, flash flooding, and strong winds to the Southwest and Great Basin before dissipating early Sunday. Isaias remnants are forecast to continue weakening.

Rising queries

huracán isaias
isaias remnants flood
tropical storm Rachel San Diego
post-tropical Rachel
Southern Appalachians flash flood

Storm hubs

Isaias 2026 hub: Hurricane Isaias 2026

Rachel 2026 hub: Tropical Storm Rachel 2026

Sources

SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook 0100 UTC 11 October 2026 (Marginal Risk Carolinas and Desert Southwest). WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook and Discussion (2331 UTC, Moderate Risk Southern Appalachians and Southern California). NHC/WPC Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias Advisory 18 (10:00 p.m. CDT). NHC Post-Tropical Cyclone Rachel Advisory 56 (8:00 p.m. PDT). Active NWS Flash Flood Warnings (Greenville-Spartanburg, Columbia) and Severe Thunderstorm Warnings (Tucson, Phoenix). Morning desk: Storm Updates: Isaias Remnants & Rachel — Oct 10 Morning.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

October 10, 2026

Storm Updates: Southwest Flood Moderate, West Texas Marginal — Tuesday, September 29, 2026 (Morning)

This is a live Tuesday morning snapshot of local storm-type events across the United States as of Tuesday, September 29, 2026. Water still owns the Southwest. The Weather Prediction Center holds a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall over portions of the Four Corners country, after overnight flash-flood warnings from southwestern Utah and Mohave County, Arizona, through the Laughlin–Kingman corridor. The Storm Prediction Center 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook draws a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms across southern Arizona and New Mexico into west Texas. No SPC watches or mesoscale discussions were in effect as of mid-morning UTC.

These are county- and ZIP-scale thunderstorms and flash-flood pulses, not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. Hurricane Polo is crossing the Gulf of California into Sonora and is forecast to weaken over the mountains of northern Mexico. Its mid-level remnant is the moisture and shear that keep the Southwest wet and give west Texas a localized tornado and damaging-gust window this afternoon and evening. Restoration exposure today is interior water on already-saturated soils, wash and burn-scar flooding, trees and service drops on isolated severe gusts, and a narrow tornado swath if a cell organizes over eastern New Mexico or the South Plains. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What is live this morning

No Severe Thunderstorm Watch or Tornado Watch is valid. Overnight Severe Thunderstorm Warnings on the northern Plains have expired. The live national products this morning are the SPC Marginal Risk from southeast Arizona through southern and eastern New Mexico into west Texas, and the WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook with a Moderate Risk still parked on the Southwest.

A mid/upper-level low and trough are moving across the Desert Southwest. Polo’s remnant mid-level circulation is expected to phase with that trough, helping a surface low consolidate over eastern New Mexico and west Texas tonight. Widespread convection is already ongoing on that moisture axis and is expected to continue through the afternoon and overnight. Poor mid-level lapse rates from the tropical remnant will cap how severe the storms get, but increasing deep-layer shear and a strengthening low-level jet later today leave room for organized linear segments and a few episodic supercells.

Hotspot 1 — Four Corners / Southwest flood pulse

This is the water desk. WPC language still supports a Moderate Risk of rainfall exceeding flash-flood guidance over parts of Arizona, southern Utah, New Mexico, and adjacent high country, with a predecessor rainfall event still working off tropical moisture. Antecedent soils are wet. Burn scars, slot canyons, and south- and west-facing slopes along the Mogollon Rim and the San Juans remain the first failures. Overnight Flash Flood Warnings covered Hildale and the Short Creek watershed in southwestern Utah, Colorado City and northern Mohave County, the Laughlin–Kingman–Bullhead City corridor, and pieces of San Bernardino and Clark counties. A separate overnight Flash Flood Warning hit the Fargo–Moorhead metro with up to two inches already down and additional rain possible.

Cities and counties to watch: Kingman, Bullhead City, Laughlin, Colorado City, Hildale, Flagstaff and Mogollon Rim drainages, the Lordsburg and Sacramento Mountains country in New Mexico, and saturated drainages in southern Utah. Fargo and Moorhead are yesterday-into-this-morning water, not the Moderate Risk core.

Restoration read: extraction and drying first. Treat burn-scar and wash flooding as a same-night water job if rain is still falling on the same ZIP. Photograph only if it is safe. Do not drive flooded washes.

Hotspot 2 — Southeast Arizona through eastern New Mexico into west Texas

This is the SPC Marginal. Isolated severe gusts and possibly a tornado or two are the official Day 1 language for this afternoon into tonight from southern and eastern New Mexico into west Texas, with southeast Arizona included on the same corridor. Population centers inside the risk area include El Paso, Tucson, Lubbock, Amarillo, Midland, Odessa, and Roswell. Storm mode should trend complex or linear as coverage increases, with a few supercells possible when shear and the low-level jet increase later today.

NWS South Plains and Panhandle hazardous-weather outlooks this morning already flag multiple rounds of heavy showers and thunderstorms, flash-flood potential where cells train, wind gusts up to about 70 mph, and a brief tornado or two. Flood Watches are in play on parts of the southwestern Texas Panhandle and northwest South Plains.

Restoration read: wind and water on the same ticket. Stage tarps and extractors for the South Plains and Permian Basin before late afternoon. A brief tornado, if one occurs, is a narrow swath — staff it as a local damage survey, not a regional event.

Hotspot 3 — Northern Plains leftover and Dakotas flood slight

Monday evening’s Marginal Risk over the western and central Dakotas and central High Plains has expired. Preliminary SPC local storm reports from that window include a 77 mph gust near Kenel and a 71 mph gust near Pollock in Campbell County, South Dakota, plus 1.00-inch hail north of Belle Fourche. Those are just-hit wind and hail tickets, not a live watch.

WPC still carries a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over portions of the eastern Dakotas into northwestern Minnesota, with a Marginal Risk from northern South Dakota through North Dakota and far northwest Minnesota. That is training showers on a southerly low-level jet, not a severe-watch corridor.

Just hit

Overnight and yesterday evening: flash flooding on the Arizona–Utah–Nevada border country and in the Fargo–Moorhead area; power lines down near New Kingman-Butler in Mohave County; severe gusts in Campbell County, South Dakota. Monday afternoon’s desk already had the Southwest water story in view. Today’s new work, if it verifies, is more Four Corners flooding plus the west Texas–eastern New Mexico Marginal window this afternoon and tonight.

Hurricane Polo is not a U.S. landfall. Tropical Storms Fay and Hanna are well out in the open Atlantic. Tropical Storm Rachel is offshore of southwestern Mexico. None of those systems is a mainland U.S. hurricane threat this morning.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS / WPC level	Status this morning
Four Corners / SW AZ–UT–NM	Flash flood, burn-scar and wash flooding	WPC Moderate excessive rainfall	Live flood pulse; overnight FFWs expired or rolling
SE Arizona / E New Mexico / west Texas	Damaging gusts, brief tornado possible, heavy rain	SPC Marginal	Afternoon–tonight window; no watch yet
SW Texas Panhandle / South Plains	Training rain, isolated severe	Flood Watch + local HWO	Today into tonight
Eastern Dakotas / NW Minnesota	Training heavy rain	WPC Slight / Marginal ERO	Showers; Fargo–Moorhead just-hit water
Western/central Dakotas (overnight)	Severe gusts, small hail	Expired Marginal + LSRs	Aftermath
Atlantic / Gulf vs. U.S. mainland	No landfalling hurricane	Polo weakening over Sonora	Quiet on the mainland coast

What this means for restoration teams

The Southwest Moderate Risk is wet drywall, silt in structures near washes, and a 24–48 hour mold clock on buildings that took water overnight. West Texas and eastern New Mexico are a wind-first desk if storms organize, with water on the same ZIPs if cells train. Dakotas gusts from last evening are already a roof-and-siding ticket in the counties that verified.

For teams near the SPC Marginal: stage before mid-afternoon local, not after the first warning. Property owners should photograph damage in daylight if it is safe, call the carrier, and start extraction the same night if water is inside. Turn around, don’t drown remains the flood rule on every wash in the Moderate Risk.

What this is not

This is not a regional derecho and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. Polo is a Mexico landfall whose remnant moisture is already inside the Southwest forecast. The work today, if it comes, will be scattered: a flooded wash in Mohave or Washington County, a wind swath through a west Texas or eastern New Mexico county, leftover urban water in Fargo. That is the local-storm pattern this desk should staff.

Looking ahead

Wednesday’s SPC Day 2 outlook already draws a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of the southern Plains, with damaging wind, hail, and perhaps a tornado or two from west-central Texas into southwest Oklahoma as the upper low and dryline organize. Thursday stays Marginal over parts of the southern Plains. Watch the next Storm Tracker update rather than assuming today’s Marginal is the last line of the week.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center Sep 29, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook (Guyer/Bentley); SPC preliminary local storm reports for 28–29 September; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (Hurley/Wegman update and prior Campbell/Pereira discussion); National Weather Service warning text via the national watches/warnings feed; National Hurricane Center public advisory language on Hurricane Polo over the Gulf of California into Sonora.

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watch, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay. Prior desk: Monday, September 28 storm updates.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

September 29, 2026

Storm Updates: Southwest Flood Moderate, Quiet Severe Pulse — Monday, September 28, 2026 (Morning)

Map of Arizona, southern Nevada, southwest Colorado, and western New Mexico marked for Monday's moderate flood risk — Monday morning desk. Moderate flood on the Southwest and Four Corners. Not an NWS warning.

This is a live Monday morning snapshot of U.S. local-storm activity as of Monday, September 28, 2026. Overnight into this morning, the organized severe desk stayed quiet. The Storm Prediction Center 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook has no severe thunderstorm areas forecast. No convective watches are valid. The Weather Prediction Center holds a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall over portions of the Southwest and Four Corners as tropical moisture associated with Hurricane Polo and remnants of Odalys lifts north into already wet ground.

These are county- and ZIP-scale thunderstorms and flash-flood pulses, not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. Polo is still a major hurricane approaching Baja California Sur and Sonora. Restoration exposure today is water first in the Southwest, then isolated wind and hail cleanup from last night’s High Plains and north Texas cells. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What is live this morning

SPC language at 0728 AM CDT: severe thunderstorm probability remains low on Monday. Isolated to scattered storms are still expected later over the northern High Plains from western Nebraska into the Dakotas, and numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected across southeast California, southern Nevada, and western Arizona. Those corridors do not carry unconditional severe probabilities on this outlook. The last issued convective watch was number 0674; nothing is live now.

WPC Day 1 excessive rainfall, issued 0812 UTC Monday and valid 12Z Monday through 12Z Tuesday, is the headline. A Moderate Risk covers portions of the Southwest and Four Corners. Guidance supports a widespread 1 to 3 inches across the region, with south- and west-facing slopes along the Mogollon Rim and the San Juans favored. Precipitable water is forecast 2 to 3.5 standard deviations above normal. Burn scars, rocky soils, and slot canyons locally raise the flood threat. The Moderate outline forks farther south in New Mexico toward the Lordsburg area and the Sacramento Mountains.

A weakening cyclone near the southern New England coast still supports showers and occasional embedded thunder along the coast. Instability is weak. That is leftover nor’easter weather, not a new severe corridor.

Hotspot 1 — Southwest and Four Corners flood Moderate

This is today’s organized desk. Moisture from Polo and post-tropical Odalys is being drawn north ahead of a mid-level trough moving from the California Valleys toward the lower Colorado River Valley. Widespread clouds and weak mid-level lapse rates should keep most storms disorganized, but rainfall rates on saturated soils do not need a supercell to fail a crossing.

Counties and terrain to watch: Mogollon Rim and higher terrain in Arizona; western and southwestern New Mexico including burn-scar drainages near Lordsburg; the San Juan Mountains and adjacent southwest Colorado; southern Nevada valleys that take runoff from steep slopes. WPC notes the Moderate continues into Tuesday over parts of the Southwest, central and southern Rockies, and southern High Plains.

Restoration read: water first. Stage pumps, extractors, and sandbags on known flood ZIPs and burn-scar alluvial fans before the afternoon cores. Photograph crawlspaces and finished basements as soon as it is safe. Do not treat this as a wind event unless a local warning says otherwise.

Hotspot 2 — Northern High Plains isolated storms

SPC keeps general thunderstorms from western Nebraska north into North Dakota. A surface trough and modest 500–1500 J/kg CAPE later this afternoon could support isolated stronger cells. Uncertainty on location and intensity is why severe probabilities stayed off the map. A southerly low-level jet may keep elevated storms going tonight.

That is the same family that produced last night’s Cherry County hail. Staff it as isolated hail and outflow, not a watch day.

Hotspot 3 — Leftover Northeast coast and north Texas cleanup

The coastal cyclone continues to weaken near southern New England. Showers and occasional thunder remain possible near the coast. Sunday’s High Wind Warnings on the Jersey Shore and Long Island are already off the morning board from yesterday’s afternoon desk. Treat remaining coastal work as leftover water and beach debris, not a new wind outbreak.

North Texas had a short severe pulse last evening over Parker County. That is a just-hit ticket, not today’s outlook.

Just hit

SPC local storm reports for the 1200 UTC Sunday to 1159 UTC Monday window, all preliminary:

2216 UTC — 1.00-inch hail 20 miles south of Merriman, Cherry County, Nebraska. Vehicle damage reported. (NWS North Platte)
2330 UTC — 1.00-inch hail 2 miles north-northwest of Willow Park, Parker County, Texas. (NWS Fort Worth)
0032 UTC — 1.00-inch hail 24 miles north of Whitman, Cherry County, Nebraska. (NWS North Platte)
1440 UTC Sunday — 66 mph gust 10 miles northwest of Okobojo Creek Recreation Area, Sully County, South Dakota. Mesonet. (NWS Aberdeen)
2300 UTC — 60 mph gust 22 miles west-southwest of Roosevelt, Sutton County, Texas. West Texas Mesonet Sonora 23SE. (NWS San Angelo)
2320 UTC — Unknown-speed wind 4 miles north-northwest of Willow Park, Parker County, Texas. Large tree limbs down and outdoor items blown around on FM 730. (NWS Fort Worth)

No tornado reports were received in that window. Severe Thunderstorm Warnings that fired Sunday evening over southwestern Cherry County, Nebraska, and northeastern Parker County, Texas, have expired.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS / WPC level	Status this morning
Southwest / Four Corners	Flash flood, training heavy rain, burn-scar runoff	WPC Moderate excessive rainfall	Live outlook through Tuesday 12Z
SE CA / southern NV / western AZ	Numerous showers and storms, isolated wet downburst	General thunder; no severe probs	Today into evening
Western NE into the Dakotas	Isolated strong storms, hail or gust possible	General thunder; no severe probs	Late afternoon–overnight
Cherry County, NE / Parker County, TX	Quarter hail, tree limbs	Expired SVR / LSRs	Just-hit cleanup
Southern New England coast	Showers, leftover coastal water	Weak cyclone; no severe area	Fading
Polo / Odalys	Mexico land and moisture feed, not CONUS landfall	NHC Polo major hurricane near Baja	Moisture into the Southwest

What this means for restoration teams

The national severe map is blank. That does not mean a quiet shop in Arizona, New Mexico, southwest Colorado, or southern Nevada. Moderate excessive-rainfall language on already wet soils is extraction, drying, and a 24–48 hour mold clock in finished space. Burn-scar fans fail first. Stage before the afternoon moisture surge, not after the first flash-flood warning.

Cherry County and Willow Park are yesterday’s hail and limb tickets. Photograph vehicles and roofs in daylight if it is still safe. Sully County’s 66 mph mesonet gust and the Sutton County 60 mph gust are isolated wind, not a line.

Polo is a Baja and Sonora hurricane desk plus a U.S. flood-moisture feed. Do not staff it as a California or Arizona landfalling hurricane.

What this is not

This is not a Slight or Enhanced severe day and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. Work today, if it verifies, is flash flooding on the Four Corners Moderate and isolated High Plains cells. That is the local-storm pattern this desk should staff.

Looking ahead

WPC keeps Moderate excessive-rainfall language into Tuesday over parts of the Southwest, central and southern Rockies, and southern High Plains, then into the southern Plains midweek. SPC’s next Day 1 update is scheduled by 1630 UTC. Watch the afternoon Storm Tracker rather than assuming the blank severe map lasts past sunset.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center Sep 28, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook; SPC Current Watches page (no watches valid); SPC local storm reports for 27/1200 UTC–28/1159 UTC; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook issued 0812 UTC Mon Sep 28; National Hurricane Center advisories on Hurricane Polo and post-tropical Odalys; National Weather Service warning text compiled at weather.gov.

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watches, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay. Prior desk: Sunday afternoon Quiet Pulse, Northeast flood Slight.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

September 28, 2026

Storm Updates: New Mexico–Plains Flood Slight, Dakotas Hail Pulse — Thursday, September 24, 2026 (Morning)

This is a live Thursday morning snapshot of local storm-type events across the United States as of the morning of Thursday, September 24, 2026. Overnight into this morning, the organized severe corridor from Wednesday’s western Dakotas Marginal Risk did verify on the Local Storm Report board — a brief tornado west of Hettinger and baseball-size hail near South Heart, North Dakota. Convective watches are not currently valid. The Storm Prediction Center 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook, valid 241200Z–251200Z, carries no categorical severe thunderstorm areas. Isolated stronger storms with hail or gusty winds remain possible late this afternoon and early evening from southeast Arizona and southern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma and Kansas.

The water desk is still the national headline, not wind. Weather Prediction Center short-range language this morning keeps a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over portions of New Mexico into the south-central Plains, with a broader Marginal Risk from the Four Corners into the central Plains as leftover tropical moisture and embedded shortwaves keep training cells possible on already wet ground. These are county- and ZIP-scale thunderstorms and flash-flood pulses, not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. Restoration exposure today is leftover water in New Mexico and the southern High Plains, isolated hail and wind on the Dakotas just-hit pile, and a Hawaii watch for Tropical Storm Nolo well south of the Big Island.

Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What is live this morning

No Storm Prediction Center convective watches are currently valid. The most recently issued watch on the SPC board is Severe Thunderstorm Watch 674, a Sunday-night eastern Colorado and western Kansas product that expired days ago. Yesterday’s western Dakotas and southern Appalachians Marginal Risk is off the Day 1 map. The 0600 UTC discussion from Guyer and Thornton is plain: organized severe thunderstorms are unlikely today and tonight. The same discussion still flags pockets of moderate destabilization into peak heating across southeast Arizona, southern New Mexico, and the southern High Plains.

The SPC overview hazard matrix later this morning lists Thursday as a Marginal severe day. Treat that as the later-cycle read against the published 0600 UTC text of “no severe thunderstorm areas forecast.” Either way, this is not a watch morning. Isolated hail or a damaging gust is the ceiling unless a new outlook or mesoscale discussion draws a tighter box this afternoon.

On the flood side, Wednesday’s Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Moderate Risk over the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles and central and eastern New Mexico has rolled off the valid window. Thursday language from WPC’s short-range public discussion is a step down: Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over portions of New Mexico into portions of the south-central Plains, Marginal Risk across much of the Four Corners into the central Plains. Soils are still saturated. Rates, not coverage, are the problem if a cell trains.

Hotspot 1 — New Mexico into the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles and western Kansas

This remains the water desk. Overnight, National Weather Service Dodge City issued a Flash Flood Warning for northwestern Grant, southeastern Hamilton, western Kearny, northeastern Morton, and eastern Stanton Counties in southwestern Kansas until 5:00 a.m. CDT. Radar-indicated totals of 2 to 3 inches were already on the ground at issuance, with another 1 to 2 inches possible. That warning is off the clock this morning. It is the signature of the same moisture plume that spent midweek over New Mexico.

WPC still expects scattered showers and thunderstorms Thursday as large-scale forcing weakens but instability and embedded shortwave energy remain. Portions of New Mexico and Texas stay sensitive because of the multi-day rain. Localized 1-inch-per-hour rates on burn scars, arroyos, urban streets, and low water crossings are the first failures. A separate, lower-coverage pulse is possible in southeast Arizona under the same southwesterly mid-level flow.

Restoration read: extraction and drying on buildings that took water Tuesday and Wednesday, plus a new poor-drainage ticket if a cell parks on a ZIP that already failed. Do not treat the whole Moderate-Risk footprint from yesterday as still live. Staff the county that still has a warning, not the outline from Wednesday afternoon.

Hotspot 2 — Western North Dakota just-hit pile

Wednesday afternoon’s western Dakotas Marginal Risk produced the overnight LSR pile. Preliminary Storm Prediction Center reports for the 1200 UTC September 23 through 1159 UTC September 24 window include:

A brief tornado around 2236 UTC about 3 miles south-southwest of Bucyrus in Adams County, North Dakota, based on social-media video and radar, west of Hettinger. NWS Bismarck logged the location as approximate.
Quarter-size hail (1.00 inch) at New England, Hettinger County, at 2307 UTC.
Half-dollar hail (1.25 inches) about 3 miles southeast of Belfield, Stark County, at 2340 UTC.
Baseball-size hail (2.75 inches) about 2 miles southwest of South Heart, Stark County, at 2345 UTC.

Those are official preliminary LSRs, not social rumor. Hail that size breaks windows, dents siding, and wrecks HVAC fins. The tornado report is a one-minute touchdown, not a long-track event. Restoration work there is already a survey-and-tarp job, not a new watch.

Hotspot 3 — Southern High Plains scatter plus leftover wind reports

SPC’s Day 1 discussion leaves the door open for a few stronger, locally severe storms late this afternoon and early evening from southeast Arizona and southern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma and Kansas. That is isolated hail and gusty outflow, not a Slight Risk corridor. Yesterday’s board also carries a 58 mph thunderstorm gust 4 miles southeast of Frederick in Tillman County, Oklahoma, at 2158 UTC, and a tree down in Van Wert, Polk County, Georgia, at 2000 UTC. Those are scatter, not a line.

Farther east, an amplifying coastal low off the Mid-Atlantic and New England is a marine and coastal-flood story, not a convective watch. WPC flags coastal flooding, rip currents, and heavy rain along the East Coast into the weekend. That is a different desk from the New Mexico flood pulse.

Tropical — Nolo south of Hawaii, not a mainland landfall

Central Pacific Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Nolo. As of 2:00 a.m. HST Thursday, Nolo was about 285 miles south of South Point, Hawaii, and about 460 miles south-southeast of Honolulu, stationary, with maximum sustained winds near 50 mph and a minimum pressure of 999 mb. Official language: Nolo is forecast to intensify into a hurricane late today and could become a major hurricane by the weekend. That is a Hawaii County and offshore-waters problem, not a Gulf or East Coast landfall. Hurricane Polo and Hurricane Odalys remain in the eastern Pacific off Mexico. Tropical Storm Fay is in the open Atlantic well west-southwest of the Azores and is not a U.S. land threat.

Just hit

Wednesday’s live desk was still water over central and eastern New Mexico, with SPC trimmed to a western Dakotas Marginal. That Dakotas box verified overnight on hail and a brief tornado. The New Mexico Moderate flood risk has stepped down to Slight into the south-central Plains. Southwestern Kansas took a late-night flash-flood warning that expired at 5:00 a.m. CDT. No new convective watch fired overnight. Watch 674 is not today’s product.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS / WPC level	Status this morning
NM into TX/OK Panhandles and western KS	Flash flood, training heavy rain	WPC Slight excessive rainfall	Live flood overlay; KS FFW expired 5 a.m. CDT
SE AZ / southern NM / southern High Plains	Isolated hail, gusty wind, heavy rain	SPC 0600 UTC: no categorical area; isolated stronger storms possible	Afternoon–evening scatter
Western ND (Hettinger / Stark)	Hail damage, brief tornado	Yesterday Marginal; LSRs in	Just-hit / survey
Four Corners to central Plains	Isolated heavy rain	WPC Marginal excessive rainfall	Diurnal cells
East Coast marine / New England coast	Coastal flood, wind, heavy rain	WPC / OPC coastal low	Not a convective watch
Hawaii — Nolo	Tropical storm to hurricane risk south of the islands	CPHC TS Nolo, 50 mph	Watch Hawaii products, not mainland
Atlantic / Gulf vs. U.S. mainland	No landfalling hurricane	Quiet on the mainland coast	Quiet

What this means for restoration teams

New Mexico and the southern High Plains are still a water week. Saturated ground plus another Slight Risk means the next training cell is a wet-drywall and crawlspace ticket, not a surprise. Photograph and extract what already flooded before you chase a new ZIP. Southwestern Kansas counties that sat under last night’s warning should be treated as just-hit poor-drainage work until local offices drop the flood language.

Western North Dakota is a hail desk. Baseball stone southwest of South Heart is broken glass and bruised roofs. The Adams County tornado report is a narrow path. Staff it as a local damage survey. Do not read “tornado” on an LSR board as a regional event.

If the later SPC cycle firms a Marginal box over the southern High Plains, the work is still isolated hail and outflow, not a watch. Stage tarps only where a warning is live. Hawaii shops should follow Central Pacific Hurricane Center products on Nolo, not this CONUS flood pulse.

What this is not

This is not a regional derecho and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. Polo and Odalys are eastern Pacific storms off Mexico. Fay is mid-Atlantic open water. Nolo is a Central Pacific storm still south of the Big Island. The CONUS work this morning is leftover flood water, a North Dakota hail pile, and a quiet watch board.

Looking ahead

SPC Day 2, valid Friday, currently carries no severe thunderstorm areas. WPC still sees the moisture axis shifting east Friday into the south-central Plains and Midwest with another heavy-rain overlay possible. SPC Day 3 language returns a Marginal Risk later in the weekend as an upper trough works the central United States. Watch the afternoon Storm Tracker rather than assuming Thursday’s quiet watch board is the last line of the week.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook for Thursday, September 24, 2026; SPC current watches page (no watches valid as of 0705 UTC); SPC today’s storm reports for 20260923 1200 UTC–20260924 1159 UTC; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook and short-range public discussion valid 12Z Thursday through 12Z Saturday; National Weather Service Dodge City flash-flood warning text for southwestern Kansas; Central Pacific Hurricane Center / National Hurricane Center public products on Tropical Storm Nolo as of 2:00 a.m. HST Thursday.

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watch, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay. Prior desk: Storm Updates: New Mexico Flood Moderate, Western Dakotas Marginal — Wednesday, September 23, 2026.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

September 24, 2026

Storm Updates: New Mexico Flood Moderate, Dakotas–Appalachians Marginal — Wednesday, September 23, 2026 (Morning)

This is a live Wednesday morning snapshot of local storm-type events across the United States as of the morning of Wednesday, September 23, 2026. Overnight into this morning, the flood desk ran ahead of the severe desk: National Weather Service flash-flood warnings for El Paso County, Texas; Amelia, Cumberland, and Powhatan counties in central Virginia; and a receding western North Carolina pulse around Lake Lure / Bat Cave / Chimney Rock. Those overnight warnings are treated as expired or expiring into this morning. Today’s desks: Storm Prediction Center Marginal Risk for parts of the western Dakotas and the southern Appalachians; Weather Prediction Center Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall across portions of central and eastern New Mexico. No convective watches are currently valid.

These are county- and ZIP-scale thunderstorms and flood pulses, not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. There is no named tropical cyclone threatening U.S. land in the current National Hurricane Center picture. Restoration exposure today into tonight is water first in New Mexico and far west Texas, leftover street and creek flooding in central Virginia and the southern Appalachians, and isolated damaging gusts this afternoon if the two Marginal corridors heat. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What is live this morning

SPC’s 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook (issued 7:26 a.m. CDT Wednesday, September 23, 2026; Smith/Mead; valid 231300Z–241200Z) places a Marginal Risk over parts of the western Dakotas and the southern Appalachians. Summary: isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon across those two corridors. Western Dakotas: mid-level trough moving out of Wyoming/Montana, lee trough, moisture plume off the High Plains, around 1,000 J/kg MLCAPE, isolated marginally severe hail or gusts through early evening. Southern Appalachians: mid-level vorticity maximum sliding southeast from the lower Ohio Valley; dewpoints in the 60s °F; 250–750 J/kg MLCAPE if heating wins against low cloud; strong to locally damaging gusts with the stronger cells. Hail probabilities were removed after the 12 UTC Nashville sounding showed poor 700–500 mb lapse rates (4.8 °C/km).

No convective watches were currently valid as of the SPC watches page update at 09:44:06 UTC Wednesday, September 23, 2026. Most recent watch on the board: 0674. Check spc.noaa.gov/products/watch before you stage.

WPC’s Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 0832 UTC Wednesday, September 23, 2026; Chenard; valid 12Z Wed–12Z Thu) holds a Moderate Risk across portions of central and eastern New Mexico. Scattered to numerous flash floods are expected; locally significant and life-threatening impacts remain possible on sensitive terrain, urban drainage, and burn scars. A widespread 1–2 inches is generally expected, with localized 2–4 inch swaths likely on top of rain that already fell before 12Z. The Slight risk extends into southeast Arizona and a slice of far west Texas if storms propagate east. Separate flood desks: Slight over portions of eastern Kentucky, eastern Tennessee, and far western North Carolina; Marginal from Ohio into West Virginia and western Virginia/North Carolina; Marginal over south Florida.

Hotspot 1 — Central and eastern New Mexico / far west Texas

Today’s Moderate flood desk and the national headline. A well-defined mid-level shortwave lifts north-northeast across New Mexico with robust upper divergence and the chance of a weak surface low. Cloud cover is the limiter; daytime heating on the eastern edge of the rain shield plus easterly upslope should still support training cells in deep southerly flow. HREF/REFS neighborhood probabilities of more than 3 inches run 40–70% across the eastern half of the Moderate area. Overnight El Paso County already took radar-indicated 0.5–1.5 inch bursts and flash-flood warnings that expired before dawn.

Restoration read: water first. Stage pumps and air movers before the afternoon/evening cores organize. Burn-scar runoff and arroyos fail first. Start extraction the same night if water is inside. Turn around, don’t drown — most flood deaths are in vehicles.

Hotspot 2 — Southern Appalachians / eastern Tennessee

Dual desk: SPC Marginal for isolated damaging gusts, WPC Slight for flash flood on wet ground from eastern Kentucky through eastern Tennessee into far western North Carolina. Extensive low cloud this morning is the uncertainty. If breaks allow 250–750 J/kg MLCAPE, multicells along the inverted trough can put down strong gusts around peak heating. HREF/REFS neighborhood flash-flood-guidance exceedance peaks over eastern Tennessee (above 40% in spots). Overnight, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg held a flash-flood warning into 5:45 a.m. EDT for southeastern Buncombe, northeastern Henderson, southwestern McDowell, northwestern Polk, and northwestern Rutherford counties — 2.5–4 inches already down, waters receding by 3:05 a.m. EDT, Rocky Broad near Bat Cave falling through 6.58 feet.

Restoration read: leftover water plus a second-chance afternoon pulse. Do not treat receding creeks as closed. Stage extractors in eastern Tennessee and western North Carolina; tree and tarp crews only if the gusty cells actually fire.

Hotspot 3 — Western Dakotas

New SPC Marginal added on the 1300 UTC outlook. Mid-level trough crossing Wyoming/Montana reaches the western Dakotas late afternoon and deamplifies toward the Red River Valley by Thursday morning. Lee trough holds a moisture plume north from the central High Plains. Widely scattered storms near the Black Hills and lee trough this afternoon; isolated marginally severe hail or gusts through early evening. No major population centers sit inside the 5% hail contour.

Restoration read: isolated wind and hail, not a regional outbreak. Stage only if you already work the Black Hills / western Dakota corridor. Do not pull crews off the New Mexico water desk for this.

Just hit

Overnight flood, not overnight severe. NWS El Paso/Santa Teresa issued flash-flood warnings for northwestern and central El Paso County into the small hours (radar 0.5–1.5 inches, additional 0.5–1 inch possible; warnings through 3:15 a.m. MDT). Otero Mesa / northwest of Dell City had 2.5–3 inches radar-estimated earlier in the night with rural-road flooding held off Dell City by retention dams. NWS Wakefield: up to 4 inches since 11 p.m. in northwestern Amelia County and up to 5.5 inches since 10 p.m. in western Powhatan County; warnings through 4:00–5:30 a.m. EDT. Western North Carolina pulse receding after 2.5–4 inches.

SPC local storm reports for the 22/1200Z–23/1159Z window carried no tornado and no hail. Wind reports from late Tuesday afternoon remain on the board for Lauderdale County, Alabama (Lexington / Rogersville): power lines down, a brush fire, and a power pole/lines on a vehicle — already noted on yesterday’s afternoon Tygart Media desk. Do not invent additional LSR points.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / WPC / NWS level	Status this morning
Central / eastern NM and far west TX	Flash flood, training storms, burn-scar runoff	WPC Moderate	Live flood desk today–Thu 12Z
Southeast AZ	Localized flash flood	WPC Slight	Today
Eastern KY / eastern TN / far western NC	Flash flood + isolated damaging gusts	WPC Slight + SPC Marginal	Afternoon–evening
Western Dakotas / Black Hills	Isolated hail / gusts	SPC Marginal	Late afternoon–early evening
OH into WV / western VA–NC	Localized flash flood on wet soils	WPC Marginal	Today
South Florida	Urban flash flood	WPC Marginal	Local
El Paso / central VA / WNC overnight	Flash flood (expired/expiring FFWs)	Overnight NWS warnings	Aftermath / receding
U.S. mainland tropics	No landfalling named cyclone	NHC quiet for CONUS land	Quiet

What this means for restoration teams

New Mexico and far west Texas remain water jobs if the Moderate risk verifies — extraction, drying, and a 24–48 hour mold clock. Central Virginia and western North Carolina are aftermath from last night plus a second-chance flood axis this afternoon in eastern Tennessee. The Dakotas Marginal is isolated. Do not treat receding overnight warnings as a closed book; soils are primed. Stage before the New Mexico afternoon cores. Start extraction the same night if water is inside. Turn around, don’t drown.

What this is not

This is not a regional derecho and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. There are no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin at this hour. Hurricane Polo (Category 4, off southwest Mexico) and Hurricane Odalys (eastern Pacific, well west of Baja) are not CONUS land threats today. Tropical Depression Fifteen-E is a Central Pacific system near Hawaii, not a mainland U.S. landfall. Today’s work, if it verifies, is scattered: New Mexico flash flood, leftover Mid-Atlantic and Appalachian water, isolated Dakotas hail/wind, isolated southern Appalachian gusts.

Looking ahead

SPC Day 2 (Thursday) and Day 3 currently show no severe thunderstorm areas. That does not cancel today’s New Mexico flood problem or this afternoon’s two Marginal corridors. Day 4–8 language is only a possible localized Plains/Mid-Mississippi threat next Monday–Wednesday with weak shear — too unclear for probabilities. Watch the next Storm Tracker update rather than assuming the Moderate rainfall risk is the last line of the week.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources: SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook issued 7:26 a.m. CDT Wednesday, September 23, 2026 (Smith/Mead); SPC watches page updated 09:44:06 UTC Wednesday, September 23, 2026; WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook updated 0832 UTC Wednesday, September 23, 2026 (Chenard); NWS El Paso/Santa Teresa, Wakefield, and Greenville-Spartanburg flash-flood products overnight; SPC local storm reports (Lauderdale County, Alabama wind from Tuesday afternoon); NHC Atlantic discussion 1215 UTC Wednesday, September 23, 2026.

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watch, and local storm reports, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay. Prior desk: Storm Updates September 22, 2026 — New Mexico Flood Moderate, Utah–Southeast Marginal.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

September 23, 2026

Storm Updates: Intermountain West + High Plains Marginal, Dakotas Flood Slight — Thursday, September 17, 2026 (Morning)

This is a live Thursday morning snapshot of U.S. local-storm activity as of early Thursday, September 17, 2026. Overnight convection left trees and wires down in western and north-central Ohio and quarter-to-half-dollar hail in eastern Utah and mid-Missouri. The Storm Prediction Center 1300 UTC Day 1 outlook holds a Marginal Risk of isolated severe wind gusts and hail across parts of Utah and Idaho into southwest Montana, plus a second Marginal over the central High Plains. No convective watches are valid. The Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook holds Slight Risks over portions of the north-central Plains and Midwest and over the southwestern U.S. There is no named tropical cyclone threatening U.S. land.

These are county- and ZIP-scale thunderstorms and flash-flood pulses, not a mainland hurricane landfall. Restoration exposure this morning is leftover wind and hail from last night plus a new afternoon hail/wind corridor in the Intermountain West and a water ticket on the Dakotas, Wyoming Front Range, and leftover Southwest terrain. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What is live this morning

SPC issued the 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook at 0730 AM CDT. Valid 171300Z–181200Z. Headline: thunderstorms with isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be possible over parts of the Intermountain West this afternoon and evening. A few strong to severe gusts may also occur across portions of the central High Plains. Risk-area population centers listed by SPC include Salt Lake City, West Valley City, Provo, West Jordan, and Orem. Categorical risk is Marginal only. No Slight Risk. No tornado probabilities in the 1300 UTC package. The Ohio Valley Marginal from Wednesday is off the map this morning. Poor lapse rates aloft and extensive cloud cover keep severe-wind probabilities below 5 percent from the Midwest through the Mid-Atlantic.

Current convective watches: none. Most recently issued watch remains Severe Thunderstorm Watch 669, already expired days ago. SPC watch page last updated 0849 UTC Thursday: no watches currently valid. That is the overnight close. Do not treat 669 as a live product.

WPC Day 1 excessive-rainfall language valid 12Z Thursday through 12Z Friday has two Slight Risk corridors. One covers a high-end Slight across much of South Dakota, expanding toward Sioux Falls and into southwestern Minnesota and northwest Iowa, and west-southwest to the Cheyenne, Wyoming region east of the Laramie Range. The other holds Slight Risk over New Mexico and eastern Arizona into the San Juans and western Colorado, with Marginal coverage into the Salt Lake corridor and southeastern Idaho. Wednesday’s Moderate Risk over southern and central Arizona is no longer the live upgrade. It is the just-hit and burn-scar follow-through desk.

Hotspot 1 — Utah, Idaho, and southwest Montana

A closed mid/upper-level low over northern California this morning will drift east across the northern Intermountain region. A 40–50 kt southwesterly mid-level jet and difluence aloft overspread the northern Great Basin this afternoon. SPC’s uncertainty is instability under morning cloud and ongoing rain. Upper-40s to low-50s dewpoints are already in place. Some guidance still builds 1000–1250 J/kg of MLCAPE over southeast Idaho and northern Utah if heating punches through. If that happens, a focused corridor of greater hail and wind potential exists because deep-layer shear is strong enough for supercells. Otherwise the threat is isolated hail and gusty winds with cells and small clusters across the northern Great Basin.

Overnight LSRs already put quarter-size hail at Huntington in Emery County and at East Carbon and Sunnyside in Carbon County. That is the same Salt Lake City forecast office that will own this afternoon’s cells.

Restoration read: hail first if discrete cells fire over the Wasatch Front and southeast Idaho. Wind second. Stage roof and auto-glass survey capacity in the Salt Lake–Provo–Boise belt before late afternoon, not after the first warning. Flash-flood risk on this corridor is Marginal to isolated, not the organized Dakotas ticket.

Hotspot 2 — Central High Plains and the Dakotas water corridor

Between the West Coast upper low and Southeast ridging, minor mid-level perturbations lift northeast from the Southwest toward the central High Plains by evening. SPC expects additional storms from northeast Colorado into western Nebraska late afternoon. Modest mid-level lapse rates should limit updraft intensity. Sufficient shear still allows a small cluster or two with isolated severe gusts spreading east-northeast through the evening. That is the wind overlay on top of WPC’s water story.

WPC is more organized here than SPC. A tropical-origin shortwave ejecting out of Arizona will pivot through the central Rockies and into the northern Plains tonight. Precipitable-water anomalies approach the 95th–99th percentile from South Dakota into southern Minnesota by the end of the period. Discussion language includes 2–4 inches, locally higher, with HREF neighborhood probabilities of greater than 2 inches at 50–80 percent across a large High Plains swath. The centroid of greater-than-3-inch probabilities sits just east and southeast of Rapid City into Badlands National Park. The Slight Risk was expanded east toward Sioux Falls for the last 6–8 hours of the forecast.

Restoration read: water first from the Wyoming Front Range across western and central South Dakota into southwest Minnesota and northwest Iowa tonight into Friday morning. Wind second if High Plains clusters organize. Do not send one crew to both a Cheyenne gust and a Rapid City wash without checking which county has a warning now.

Hotspot 3 — Southwest terrain leftover plus Ohio just-hit

The shortwave that drove Wednesday’s Arizona Moderate flood risk is leaving. WPC still keeps a Slight Risk over New Mexico and eastern Arizona into the San Juans and Sacramentos. Guidance still prints 1–3 inches on the Sangre de Cristos, San Juans, and interior New Mexico terrain. Sacramento Mountains burn-scar sensitivity remains in the discussion as locally Moderate impacts embedded inside a higher-end Slight. That is runoff on ground that already took water Wednesday, not a new Moderate upgrade.

Ohio is off today’s SPC Marginal. It is the just-hit desk. Overnight LSRs from the 16/1200Z–17/1159Z window include multiple trees down in Versailles and Piqua, a snapped hardwood onto a home awning in Darke County, barn sheet-metal loss and a blown silo near West Alexandria in Preble County, and trees and wires southeast of Mansfield in Richland County. NWS Cleveland had severe thunderstorm warnings into mid-evening Wednesday for Richland, Ashland, Holmes, and Knox counties. Those products are expired. The trees are still on the lines.

Just hit

SPC preliminary storm reports for the 16/1200Z–17/1159Z window show no tornadoes. Hail: 1.00 inch at Huntington, Emery County, Utah; 1.00 inch at East Carbon and Sunnyside, Carbon County, Utah; 1.00 to 1.25 inches near Linn Creek, Camden County, Missouri, with two-foot-diameter limbs down. Wind: downed power lines in Mesa, Maricopa County, Arizona; trees in Versailles, Darke County, and Piqua and Lockington, Miami County, Ohio; a snapped pole and large limb near Broken Arrow, Tulsa County, Oklahoma; a power line and a condo-garage roof near Osage Beach and Linn Creek, Missouri; barn roofing and a grain silo near West Alexandria, Preble County, Ohio; trees and wires southeast of Mansfield.

Today’s 17/1200Z cycle has no tornado, hail, or wind reports yet as of this morning desk. That is expected. The Intermountain and High Plains threats are an afternoon and evening problem.

Wednesday afternoon’s Storm Tracker already covered the Ohio Valley Marginal and the Arizona Moderate flood risk while they were live. This morning’s desk treats Ohio wind and Arizona washes as aftermath and moves the live outlook west and north.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS / WPC level	Status this morning
UT / ID / SW MT	Isolated hail and severe gusts; possible supercells if CAPE builds	SPC Marginal	Afternoon–evening cells
NE CO / western NE / High Plains	Isolated severe gusts	SPC Marginal	Late afternoon clusters
WY Front Range / SD / SW MN / NW IA	Flash flood, 2–4″ swaths	WPC Slight (high-end over SD)	Today’s organized water ticket
NM / E AZ / San Juans / Sacramentos	Flash flood, burn-scar debris flow	WPC Slight; leftover from Wed Moderate	Diurnal terrain cells
Western / north-central OH	Trees, wires, barn and roof damage	LSRs overnight; warnings expired	Just-hit
Emery / Carbon UT; Camden MO	Quarter to half-dollar hail	LSRs overnight	Just-hit / same offices own today’s risk
Atlantic / Gulf vs. U.S. mainland	No named cyclone	NHC: no tropical cyclones	Quiet on the mainland coast

What this means for restoration teams

Isolated severe hail on the Wasatch Front is a roof and auto-glass survey ticket if cells verify over Salt Lake, Provo, or southeast Idaho. Isolated High Plains gusts are tree, siding, and gutter work in a thin corridor. The organized ticket today is water from the Wyoming Front Range across South Dakota into southwest Minnesota and northwest Iowa tonight. Flash flooding on leftover Arizona–New Mexico terrain is wet drywall and a same-night extraction clock if water is inside a structure that already took rain Wednesday. Ohio trees-on-wires from last night are a separate staffing problem from this afternoon’s West.

For teams near the Intermountain Marginal: stage before mid-afternoon local. Property owners should photograph damage in daylight if it is safe, call the carrier, and start extraction the same night if water is inside. Turn around, don’t drown on High Plains and Southwest washes.

What this is not

This is not a Slight Risk severe day, not a live convective watch, and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. NHC reports no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, eastern Pacific, or central Pacific as of this morning. Edouard is already in the archive. The work, if it verifies, will be scattered: a hail swath through a Utah or Idaho county, a gust cluster on the High Plains, and heavier rain over South Dakota terrain tonight.

Looking ahead

SPC Day 2 (Friday) holds Marginal Risk across parts of the northern Intermountain West, the central Great Plains into the southern middle Missouri Valley, and the Carolina–Georgia Piedmont. WPC’s Day 1 water corridor over the Dakotas is the bridge into that Plains Marginal. The next Storm Tracker update should re-check the 1630 UTC Day 1 outlook and any new watches rather than assuming this morning’s Marginal stays the last word.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center Sep 17, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook (Gleason/Mead); current convective watches (none valid; last issued Watch 669); SPC preliminary storm reports for 20260916 1200 UTC–20260917 1159 UTC; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook and discussion (Kleebauer); National Weather Service warning text including Cleveland OH, Salt Lake City, Springfield MO, and Phoenix/Flagstaff/Tucson overnight flood products now expired; National Hurricane Center 800 AM EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, September 17, 2026.

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watch, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay. Prior desk: Wednesday, September 16 afternoon Storm Updates.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

September 17, 2026