Tag: Arizona

Storm Updates: Arizona Slight — Oct 21 Morning

Tropical: None · Severe: Slight · Flood: Slight

What Changed

Compared with the October 21 afternoon desk (quiet-pulse-2026-10-21-afternoon): SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook (0100 UTC October 22 / 6:00 PM PDT October 21, 2026, valid 220100Z–221200Z) holds a SLIGHT RISK of severe thunderstorms for much of Arizona into far southeast Nevada and southwest Utah. Earlier Enhanced risk over central Arizona has closed with the end of peak diurnal heating; supercells remain possible overnight.
Severe Thunderstorm Watches 689 and 690 remain active over central and southern Arizona. Multiple Severe Thunderstorm Warnings and Tornado Warnings verified earlier; LSRs include large hail (up to golf-ball size) and damaging winds in Yavapai, Coconino, and Maricopa Counties.
WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 0015 UTC October 22, valid 01Z–12Z October 22) maintains a SLIGHT RISK over portions of southern California and the Southwest U.S. (including much of Arizona, southern Utah, southwest Colorado, western New Mexico). No upgrade to Moderate. Heavy rainfall rates continue with the moist plume and upper low.
NHC continues advisories on Subtropical Storm Josephine (Advisory ~2: ~37.7°N 69.4°W, 65 mph, moving NNE at 6 mph, expected to accelerate northeast away from the U.S. and become extratropical with hurricane-force winds). No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America. Eastern Pacific Tropical Storm Vance remains well south of Mexico with no U.S. threat. Storm hub: Josephine 2026.
Both severe and flood lanes remain open at Slight. Restoration focus stays on Arizona hail/wind/isolated tornado damage plus Southwest flash-flood potential from ongoing convection. Quiet Pulse remains closed.

Live Status

As of this Wednesday evening update to the morning desk, October 21, 2026 (approximately 9:12 PM PDT / 12:12 AM EDT October 22 / 0412Z October 22), the national picture centers on the Southwest. SPC Day 1 lists a Slight risk (Level 2 of 5) of severe thunderstorms across much of Arizona (including the Phoenix metro: Phoenix, Mesa, Glendale, Chandler, Scottsdale) into far southeast Nevada and southwest Utah for tonight. Marginal risk covers coastal central and southern California. Supercells are favored with elongated hodographs and 55–65 kt effective shear; large hail is the primary threat (locally 2+ inches possible), with a couple of tornadoes and damaging winds also possible given residual low-level shear and terrain influences. MUCAPE remains 1000–1500 J/kg under the advancing cold core of the deep upper low off the California coast. Additional development is expected across south-central Arizona overnight as shortwave energy approaches from Mexico.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 689 covers central and southern Arizona until roughly 9:00 PM MST, with primary threats of scattered large hail (isolated very large), damaging winds to 70 mph, and a tornado or two. Watch 690 extends coverage further. Radar and local storm reports earlier today verified hail to 1.5 inches and 60 mph gusts near Prescott, Hawkins, Iron Springs, and other locations in Yavapai and Coconino Counties. Tornado warnings were issued in northern Arizona (first tornado watch products for the state in roughly 16 years). Convection is shifting eastward across Arizona into southwest New Mexico into early Thursday.

WPC Day 1 carries a Slight risk of excessive rainfall over southern California (focused on the Transverse Ranges, burn scars, and urban corridors north and northeast of Los Angeles) and the broader Southwest/Four Corners, including much of Arizona, southern Utah, and adjacent areas. Persistent southerly flow is advecting anomalous moisture; HREF probabilities for additional >1 inch rainfall remain high (>70%) through 12Z. Hourly rates of 0.5–1+ inches are possible, with higher amounts in terrain. Flash Flood Warnings have been issued in parts of Coconino County and southern Utah (including near Zion and Bryce areas). Residual Flood Watches cover higher terrain and burn scars. No Moderate or higher ERO is in effect on Day 1.

Tropical lane remains closed for the United States. Subtropical Storm Josephine is accelerating northeast away from the East Coast with no coastal watches or warnings. Residual high surf and coastal flood products may continue along portions of the East Coast from the parent system, but these do not open a tropical lane for this desk. Winter Storm Warnings remain active in parts of Alaska; these are outside the primary severe/flood focus.

Just-Hit

Preliminary local storm reports and media accounts document golf-ball-sized hail, shattered windows, dented vehicles, and downed trees across northern and central Arizona, including Flagstaff and Mesa areas. Strong winds toppled trees in the Coconino National Forest. Multiple tornado warnings and the first tornado watch for northern Arizona since 2010 verified earlier in the day. Flash Flood Warnings are active or recent over parts of Coconino County, southern Utah (including Zion National Park vicinity with reported muddy flows), and higher terrain/burn scars. No widespread major flooding has been reported as of this update, but the setup supports rapid runoff and urban/terrain flash flooding overnight. Primary ongoing restoration ticket is hail and wind damage to roofs, vehicles, and vegetation in the Phoenix metro and high country, with secondary flash-flood concerns in sensitive terrain.

Pulse Table

Lane	Status	Notes (as of ~9:12 PM PDT / 0412Z 22 Oct 2026)
Tropical	None	Subtropical Storm Josephine ~37.7N 69.4W, 65 mph, moving NNE away. No U.S. watches/warnings. TS Vance far south of Mexico. Hub live.
Severe	Slight	SPC Day 1 (0100Z Oct 22): Slight over much of AZ into far SE NV/SW UT for large hail (primary), couple tornadoes, damaging winds. Marginal coastal CA. SVR TSTM Watches 689 & 690 active. LSRs of large hail and wind verified.
Flood	Slight	WPC Day 1: Slight over southern CA and Southwest (AZ, S UT, SW CO, W NM). High probs for additional heavy rain. FFWs recent in Coconino AZ and S UT. No Moderate+.

Rising Queries

Trends unreachable.

What This Means

The restoration ticket is driven by the Arizona Slight risk severe weather, with supporting flash-flood potential across the Southwest. Organized supercells continue into the evening and overnight with primary hazards of large hail and damaging winds, plus a couple of tornadoes possible. Phoenix metro and central Arizona remain in the threat area under active watches. Southern California sees a marginal severe threat from the approaching Pacific cyclone plus a Slight excessive rainfall risk focused on coastal ranges and urban areas. Named storm hub for Josephine is live even though no U.S. coastal threat. Monitor official sources for the latest warnings and local impacts.

Informational only — not an official warning. Always confirm with the latest official forecasts from weather.gov, spc.noaa.gov, wpc.ncep.noaa.gov, and nhc.noaa.gov. Turn around, don’t drown.

October 20, 2026

Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Oct 20

Tropical: None · Severe: Quiet · Flood: Quiet

As of this Tuesday afternoon desk, October 20, 2026 (approximately 8:14 PM PDT / 11:14 PM EDT / 0314Z October 21), the national picture holds as a Quiet Pulse. SPC Day 1 continues with no severe thunderstorm areas forecast through tonight. WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook shows the probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance less than 5 percent. No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning is in effect on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America.

What Changed

Compared with this morning’s quiet-pulse-2026-10-20-morning pulse table: SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook (latest 0100 UTC / 7:51 PM CDT Tuesday, October 20, 2026, valid 210100Z–211200Z) continues NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST. No categorical severe risk remains open. No convective watches or Mesoscale Discussions are currently in effect.
WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated ~0028 UTC Wednesday October 21 / ~8:28 PM EDT Tuesday, valid 01Z–12Z Oct 21) confirms the probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less than 5 percent. The prior Marginal Risk over the Southwest has fully closed for Day 1. No Moderate or higher.
No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America. NHC reports no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Eastern Pacific, or Central Pacific. AL93 remains a storm-force non-tropical low a few hundred miles off the mid-Atlantic/North Carolina coast with a medium (40%) chance of briefly acquiring subtropical characteristics over the next couple of days as it moves north-northeast over the Gulf Stream. High winds, coastal flooding, and dangerous surf continue along portions of the East Coast.
Looking ahead (not Day 1): SPC Day 2 maintains an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms across portions of Arizona for Wednesday, with large hail and tornado potential. WPC Day 2 carries a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over the Southwest and Four Corners. Flood Watches are in effect for much of central and eastern Arizona, plus portions of New Mexico, Colorado, and California starting Wednesday. This remains outside the current Day 1 window.
Nothing material has moved to open a Slight or higher severe lane or Moderate or higher flood lane for today. Quiet Pulse holds on Day 1.

Live Status

SPC Day 1 (0100Z October 21) lists no severe thunderstorm areas. Isolated thunderstorms remain possible this evening into tonight across parts of the Desert Southwest and Intermountain West under modest instability, and overnight along a low-level moisture axis over the southern and central Great Plains, but no severe threat is forecast. No watches are valid.

The flood lane is Quiet on Day 1. Residual river Flood Warnings continue in Florida (St. Johns River near Astor, moderate stage) and Georgia (Satilla River at Atkinson). Coastal and marine products, including Gale Warnings and Storm Warnings offshore the mid-Atlantic, persist with the non-tropical low. Flood Watches for Wednesday cover portions of the Southwest and California ahead of the next system. Winter Storm Warnings remain active in interior Alaska.

Hotspots

Southwest / Arizona corridor (looking ahead): Flood Watches already issued for central and eastern Arizona, southwest Colorado, and western New Mexico starting Wednesday afternoon. SPC Day 2 Enhanced Risk targets portions of Arizona for large hail and isolated tornadoes. WPC Day 2 Slight Risk of excessive rainfall covers the Southwest and Four Corners.
East Coast coastal / marine: Storm-force non-tropical low (AL93) offshore the mid-Atlantic continues to drive high winds, coastal flooding, and dangerous surf. Gale Warnings and Storm Warnings are in effect for offshore waters. No tropical development is imminent for U.S. land.
Residual river and Alaska winter: Ongoing Flood Warnings on the St. Johns (FL) and Satilla (GA). Winter Storm Warnings remain active across portions of interior Alaska (Eastern Alaska Range, Fortymile Country, Yukon Flats) with heavy snow totals of 5–36 inches depending on elevation.

Just-Hit

No significant local storm reports of severe weather (hail ≥1 inch, damaging wind, tornado) or widespread flash flooding on Day 1. Prior Marginal activity over southeast Arizona and southwest New Mexico has ended with loss of heating. Residual river stages and coastal products only.

Pulse Table

Lane	Status	Notes (as of ~8:14 PM PDT / 11:14 PM EDT / 0314Z 21 Oct 2026)
Tropical	None	No named systems threatening U.S. land or Gulf. NHC: no tropical cyclones Atlantic/EPAC/CPAC. AL93 non-tropical low off mid-Atlantic (40% subtropical chance next few days). No U.S. tropical watches/warnings.
Severe	Quiet	SPC Day 1 (0100Z Oct 21): NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST. No watches or MDs valid. Isolated thunder possible Southwest and Plains overnight, no severe threat.
Flood	Quiet	WPC Day 1 probability <5%. Residual river Flood Warnings (St. Johns near Astor FL, Satilla Atkinson GA). Flood Watches issued for Southwest/CA starting Wednesday. Day 2 Slight Risk Southwest.

Rising Queries

“Flood watch” is rising in U.S. Trends, driven by the Arizona and Southwest Flood Watches issued ahead of Wednesday’s system. Related searches include Arizona weather, severe storms Arizona, and Phoenix flood watch. Broader weather forecast queries remain elevated with the approaching Day 2 risk.

Restoration Read

Quiet Pulse for today. No open Slight or higher severe or Moderate or higher flood lanes on Day 1. Residual river flooding in Florida and Georgia is the primary ongoing water concern. Coastal flooding and high surf along the East Coast will continue with the offshore low. Wednesday brings the first above-Quiet window over Arizona and the Southwest—monitor Flood Watches and the Day 2 Enhanced Risk closely. Turn around, don’t drown on any residual flooded roads.

What This Is Not

This is a Quiet Pulse. No SPC Slight or higher severe risk, no WPC Moderate or higher excessive rainfall on Day 1, and no tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf. The Enhanced severe and Slight flood risks for Wednesday remain outside the current Day 1 window.

Looking Ahead One Day

Wednesday holds an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms across portions of Arizona (large hail, isolated tornado potential) on the SPC Day 2 outlook. WPC Day 2 carries a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over the Southwest and Four Corners. Flood Watches are already in effect for much of central and eastern Arizona and adjacent areas starting Wednesday. The East Coast offshore low continues to influence winds, surf, and coastal flooding as it moves northeast. No named tropical threat to the U.S. coast is indicated.

Sources

SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook: spc.noaa.gov
WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook: wpc.ncep.noaa.gov
NWS Watches/Warnings: weather.gov
NHC: nhc.noaa.gov
This morning’s desk: quiet-pulse-2026-10-20-morning

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Always consult official NWS, SPC, WPC, and NHC products for decisions.

October 20, 2026

Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Oct 20 Morning

Tropical: None · Severe: Quiet · Flood: Quiet

What Changed

Compared with the October 19 afternoon desk (quiet-pulse-2026-10-19-afternoon): SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook (latest 0100 UTC / 7:51 PM CDT Tuesday, October 20, 2026, valid 210100Z–211200Z) continues NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST. The prior Marginal Risk over southeast Arizona and southwest New Mexico has fully closed. Isolated thunderstorms remain possible this evening into tonight across parts of the Desert Southwest and Intermountain West, and overnight along a low-level moisture axis over the southern and central Great Plains, but no categorical severe risk and no watches.
WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 0028 UTC Wednesday October 21 / ~8:28 PM EDT Tuesday, valid 01Z–12Z Oct 21) confirms the probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less than 5 percent. The prior Marginal Risk over the Southwest has ended for Day 1. No Moderate or higher.
No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America. NHC reports no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Eastern Pacific, or Central Pacific as of the 800 PM EDT Tropical Weather Outlook. AL93 (non-tropical low off the mid-Atlantic coast) continues with a medium (40%) chance of subtropical development, but remains offshore with no U.S. watches or warnings. Nothing material moved on the tropical lane.
Looking ahead (not Day 1): SPC Day 2 holds an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms across portions of Arizona for Wednesday, with large hail, damaging winds, and tornado potential. WPC Day 2 has a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over the Southwest and Four Corners. Flood Watches are already in effect for much of central and eastern Arizona starting Wednesday. This remains outside the current Day 1 window.
Nothing material has moved to open a Slight or higher severe lane or Moderate or higher flood lane for today. The national picture remains Quiet Pulse for the morning desk.

Live Status

As of this Tuesday morning desk update, October 20, 2026 (approximately 9:12 PM PDT / 12:12 AM EDT October 21 / 0412Z October 21), the national picture is a Quiet Pulse. SPC Day 1 holds no severe thunderstorm areas through tonight. Isolated thunderstorms may continue this evening into tonight across parts of the Desert Southwest and Intermountain West under modest instability, but any severe risk is expected to remain limited and isolated. No convective watches are in effect.

The flood lane is Quiet on Day 1. WPC shows less than 5 percent probability of excessive rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance. Residual river Flood Warnings continue in Florida and Georgia (including moderate stage on the St. Johns near Astor), and winter storm products remain active in Alaska, but these do not meet Moderate or higher excessive rainfall criteria. Coastal and marine products persist along portions of the East Coast in association with the offshore non-tropical low, but these are not inland flash-flood events.

No named tropical cyclone threatens or has just hit U.S. land. The Atlantic, Eastern Pacific, and Central Pacific basins have no tropical cyclones. No U.S. tropical watches or warnings.

Hotspots

Desert Southwest / Intermountain West: Isolated thunderstorms possible this evening into tonight. Transient organization possible earlier, but overall severe threat remains limited. No categorical risk or watches. The higher-end threat arrives Wednesday.

Looking ahead — Arizona and Southwest: SPC Day 2 Enhanced Risk for severe thunderstorms Wednesday across portions of Arizona, including large hail and tornado potential, especially higher terrain and interior areas. WPC Day 2 Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over the Southwest and Four Corners. Flood Watches already issued for much of central and eastern Arizona starting Wednesday morning through Thursday evening. This is the dominant upcoming peril.

Alaska: Multiple Winter Storm Warnings continue for heavy snow, with significant accumulations at higher elevations and travel impacts possible. Outside CONUS focus.

Just-Hit

Overnight and early Tuesday activity was limited. Prior Marginal Risk reports from Monday evening (isolated 1.25-inch hail and wind damage in SE AZ/SW NM) have closed with the risk area. No widespread severe or flash-flood reports noted for the current Day 1 period.

Pulse Table

Lane	Status	Notes (as of ~9:12 PM PDT / 12:12 AM EDT / 0412Z 21 Oct 2026)
Tropical	None	No named systems threatening U.S. land or Gulf. No tropical cyclones in Atlantic, East Pac, or Central Pac. AL93 offshore non-tropical low (40% subtropical chance). No U.S. tropical watches/warnings.
Severe	Quiet	SPC Day 1: No Severe Thunderstorm Areas. Isolated storms possible Desert Southwest but limited threat. No watches. Day 2 Enhanced Risk AZ for Wednesday.
Flood	Quiet	WPC Day 1: probability <5%. Residual river Flood Warnings FL/GA. Day 2 Slight Risk Southwest. Flood Watches already out for AZ starting Wednesday.

Rising Queries

“Flood watch” is rising in U.S. Trends, driven by the Arizona Flood Watches issued ahead of Wednesday’s system. Related searches include Arizona weather, severe storms Arizona, and Phoenix flood watch. Trends for the broader severe risk are building but not yet dominant nationally.

Restoration Read

Quiet Pulse for today. No open Slight or higher severe or Moderate or higher flood lanes on Day 1. The isolated activity possible in the Southwest this evening is expected to remain limited. Standard quiet-day posture applies. Looking ahead one day, the Enhanced severe risk and Slight excessive rainfall risk over Arizona on Wednesday, combined with already-issued Flood Watches, represent the first material increase in restoration potential this week. Monitor local NWS offices (Phoenix, Flagstaff) and SPC/WPC updates. No widespread event is underway today.

What This Is Not

This is a Quiet Pulse. No SPC Slight or higher severe risk on Day 1, no WPC Moderate or higher excessive rainfall on Day 1, and no tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf.

Looking Ahead One Day

Wednesday brings an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms across portions of Arizona, with large hail, damaging winds, and tornado potential, especially over higher terrain and interior areas. WPC Day 2 Slight Risk of excessive rainfall covers the Southwest and Four Corners. Flood Watches are already in effect for much of central and eastern Arizona. This is the dominant near-term concern. No tropical development expected for the U.S. coast or Gulf.

Sources

Previous desk: quiet-pulse-2026-10-19-afternoon
SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
SPC Day 2 Convective Outlook: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html
WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/ero.php
WPC Day 2 Excessive Rainfall Outlook: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/ero.php?day=2
NHC: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
NWS watches/warnings: https://www.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=usa&wwa=all

Informational only — not an official warning. This desk is compiled from official NWS, SPC, WPC, and NHC products for situational awareness only. Always verify the latest local forecasts and warnings at weather.gov before making decisions. Turn around, don’t drown.

October 20, 2026

Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Oct 19

Tropical: None · Severe: Marginal · Flood: Marginal

What Changed

Compared with this morning’s quiet-pulse-2026-10-19-morning pulse table: SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook (latest 0100 UTC / 7:52 PM CDT Monday, October 19, 2026, valid 200100Z–201200Z) holds the Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of southeast Arizona and southwest New Mexico. Isolated severe gusts and hail remain possible this evening under 1000–1500 J/kg SBCAPE and ~40 kt shear. No upgrade to Slight or higher. No convective watches issued.
WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 0051 UTC Tuesday, October 20, 2026 / ~8:51 PM EDT Monday, valid 01Z–12Z Oct 20) confirms a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall for portions of the Southwest (southeast Arizona and southwest New Mexico). Hourly rates of 0.5–1 inch possible in stronger cells, mainly urban and terrain-sensitive areas. Matches the morning desk; no Moderate or higher.
SPC today’s local storm reports (as of the 1200 UTC–1159 UTC page) include 1.25-inch hail 18 N Pirtleville, Cochise County, AZ (2157 UTC), 1.25-inch hail 1 W Deming, Luna County, NM (0010 UTC), downed power lines 5 N Rodeo, Hidalgo County, NM (2235 UTC), and a 77 mph gust 3 NNE Rodeo (2240 UTC). Isolated activity has verified in the Marginal area.
No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America. NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook continues to monitor AL93, a storm-force non-tropical low a few hundred miles off the southeast coast, with low near-term chance of subtropical development. High winds, coastal flooding, and dangerous surf persist along portions of the East Coast. Eastern Pacific Tropical Storm Trudy remains offshore Mexico only and does not threaten the United States. Nothing material moved on the tropical lane.
Nothing material has moved to open a Slight or higher severe lane or Moderate or higher flood lane. The Marginal severe window is expected to close with loss of heating overnight.

Live Status

As of this Monday afternoon desk update, October 19, 2026 (approximately 8:14 PM PDT / 11:14 PM EDT / 0314Z October 20), the national picture remains a Quiet Pulse. The only open severe lane is the small Marginal Risk over southeast Arizona and southwest New Mexico, where scattered thunderstorms have produced isolated large hail and strong wind gusts this evening. Activity is expected to weaken overnight. No Slight Risk, no watches.

Flood lane carries a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall over the same Southwest corridor. Isolated flash flooding is possible this evening in urban areas, burn scars, box canyons, and dry washes, but coverage is limited. Residual river Flood Warnings continue, including moderate stage on the St. Johns River near Astor, Florida. Coastal Flood Warnings, High Surf Advisories, and marine Storm/Gale products remain active along portions of the East Coast in association with the offshore non-tropical low. These are coastal and marine, not inland flash-flood events of Moderate or higher intensity.

No named tropical cyclone threatens or has just hit U.S. land. The Atlantic basin has no tropical cyclones. AL93 may briefly acquire subtropical characteristics later this week but is expected to move northeastward away from the coast. Pacific Tropical Storm Trudy is offshore Mexico only.

Hotspots

Southeast Arizona / Southwest New Mexico: Marginal severe and excessive rainfall risk this evening. Isolated 1.25-inch hail and wind damage (downed lines, 77 mph gust) already reported. Cells moving quickly enough to limit widespread flooding but capable of localized issues on burn scars and in urban/terrain areas.

East Coast coastal waters and shoreline: Storm-force non-tropical low (AL93) driving high winds, very rough seas, coastal flooding, and dangerous surf from the Southeast through the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Marine Storm and Gale Warnings in effect. Not an inland severe or flash-flood event.

Alaska: Multiple Winter Storm Warnings for heavy snow (5–10 inches in valleys, up to 24–36 inches at higher elevations in the Eastern Alaska Range) with gusty winds. Travel impacts possible through mid-week. Outside the CONUS focus but active.

Just-Hit

SPC local storm reports for the current period document 1.25-inch hail near Pirtleville, AZ, and Deming, NM, plus wind damage and a 77 mph gust near Rodeo, NM, all within the Marginal Risk area this evening. No tornado reports. No widespread flash-flood reports noted beyond residual river stages.

Pulse Table

Lane	Status	Notes (as of ~8:14 PM PDT / 11:14 PM EDT / 0314Z 20 Oct 2026)
Tropical	None	No named systems threatening U.S. land or Gulf. AL93 non-tropical low off SE coast (low near-term subtropical chance). Pacific TS Trudy offshore Mexico only. No U.S. tropical watches/warnings.
Severe	Marginal	SPC Day 1 Marginal Risk SE Arizona / SW New Mexico. Isolated hail (1.25″) and wind (77 mph gust, downed lines) reported. No watches. Activity expected to weaken soon.
Flood	Marginal	WPC Day 1 Marginal Risk portions of Southwest (SE AZ/SW NM). Isolated flash flooding possible in urban/terrain areas. Residual river Flood Warnings (St. Johns near Astor FL). Coastal/marine products East Coast. No Moderate or higher ERO.

Rising Queries

Trends unreachable.

Restoration Read

Quiet Pulse overall. The isolated Marginal severe and excessive rainfall potential in southeast Arizona and southwest New Mexico has produced localized hail and wind reports this evening, with possible limited claims, but coverage is small, no watches support a broader response, and the window is closing overnight. Coastal flooding, high surf, and beach erosion along the East Coast warrant monitoring for overwash and access issues, but these are not inland restoration events. Residual river flooding remains minor and stable. Standard quiet-day posture applies. No widespread severe or higher-end flash flood event is underway. Looking ahead, Pacific moisture is expected to increase flood and isolated severe potential over the Southwest mid-week.

What This Is Not

This is a Quiet Pulse. No SPC Slight or higher severe risk, no WPC Moderate or higher excessive rainfall, and no tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf.

Looking Ahead One Day

Tuesday holds no widespread severe threat on current guidance. The Marginal Risk area in the Southwest is expected to diminish overnight. The non-tropical low continues to influence East Coast winds, surf, and coastal flooding into mid-week. No near-term tropical development expected for the U.S. coast or Gulf. Moisture from the Pacific system may begin increasing rain chances later in the week.

Sources

Morning desk: quiet-pulse-2026-10-19-morning
SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
SPC Local Storm Reports: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/today.html
WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/ero.php
NHC Tropical Weather Outlook: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
NWS watches/warnings: https://www.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=usa&wwa=all

October 19, 2026

Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Oct 19 Morning

Tropical: None · Severe: Marginal · Flood: Marginal

What Changed

Compared with the October 19 afternoon desk (quiet-pulse-2026-10-19-afternoon): SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook (latest 0100Z / 7:52 PM CDT Monday, October 19, 2026, valid 200100Z–201200Z) continues the Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of southeast Arizona and southwest New Mexico. Isolated severe gusts and hail remain possible this evening with a small cluster of storms under 1000–1500 J/kg SBCAPE and ~40 kt shear. No upgrade to Slight or higher. No convective watches issued. Activity expected to weaken with loss of heating overnight.
WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 0051 UTC Tuesday, October 20, 2026 / ~8:51 PM EDT Monday, valid 01Z–12Z Oct 20) now carries a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall for portions of the Southwest (southeast Arizona and southwest New Mexico). Hourly rates to 0.5–1 inch possible in stronger cells, mainly urban and terrain-sensitive areas. Previously noted probability less than 5 percent on the afternoon desk. No Moderate or higher.
No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America. NHC continues to monitor AL93, a storm-force non-tropical low a few hundred miles off the southeast coast, with low (20%) chance of subtropical development in 48 hours and medium (40%) in 7 days. High winds, coastal flooding, and dangerous surf persist along portions of the East Coast. Eastern Pacific Tropical Storm Trudy remains offshore Mexico only. Nothing material moved on the tropical lane.
Mesoscale Discussion 2383 (issued ~3 PM CDT) noted watch unlikely; no Mesoscale Discussions currently in effect. No overnight local storm reports of widespread severe or flash flooding outside residual coastal and river concerns. The Marginal severe window is closing.

Live Status

As of this Monday evening update to the morning desk, October 19, 2026 (approximately 8:12 PM PDT / 11:12 PM EDT / 0312Z October 20), the national picture is a Quiet Pulse. The only open severe lane is the small Marginal Risk over southeast Arizona and southwest New Mexico, where scattered thunderstorms may produce isolated hail to around 1.25 inches and gusty winds for a short time longer this evening before weakening. No Slight Risk, no watches.

Flood lane has a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall over the same Southwest corridor on the Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook. Isolated flash flooding is possible this evening in urban areas, burn scars, box canyons, and dry washes where cells train, but coverage remains limited and no Moderate or higher risk is indicated. Residual river Flood Warnings continue in places such as the St. Johns River near Astor, Florida (moderate stage). Coastal Flood Warnings, High Surf Advisories, and marine Storm/Gale products remain active along portions of the East Coast in association with the offshore non-tropical low. These are coastal and marine, not inland flash-flood events of Moderate or higher intensity.

Pulse Table

Lane	Status	Notes (as of ~8:12 PM PDT / 11:12 PM EDT / 0312Z 20 Oct 2026)
Tropical	None	No named systems threatening U.S. land or Gulf. AL93 non-tropical low off SE coast (20%/40% subtropical chance). Pacific TS Trudy offshore Mexico only. No U.S. tropical watches/warnings.
Severe	Marginal	SPC Day 1 Marginal Risk SE Arizona / SW New Mexico. Isolated hail and wind possible this evening. No watches. Activity expected to weaken soon. MD 2383 watch unlikely; none currently in effect.
Flood	Marginal	WPC Day 1 Marginal Risk portions of Southwest (SE AZ/SW NM). Isolated flash flooding possible in urban/terrain areas. Residual river Flood Warnings (St. Johns near Astor FL). Coastal/marine products East Coast. No Moderate or higher ERO.

Rising Queries

Trends unreachable.

Restoration Read

Quiet Pulse overall. The isolated Marginal severe and excessive rainfall potential in southeast Arizona and southwest New Mexico may produce localized hail, wind, or flash-flood claims this evening, but coverage is limited, no watches support a broader response, and the window is closing with nighttime cooling. Coastal flooding, high surf, and beach erosion along the East Coast (particularly Outer Banks into the Mid-Atlantic) warrant monitoring for overwash and access issues, but these are not inland restoration events. Residual river flooding remains minor and stable. Standard quiet-day posture applies. No widespread severe or higher-end flash flood event is underway. Looking ahead, moisture from Pacific Tropical Storm Trudy is expected to increase flood and isolated severe potential over the Southwest mid-week.

What This Is Not

This is a Quiet Pulse. No SPC Slight or higher severe risk, no WPC Moderate or higher excessive rainfall, and no tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf.

October 19, 2026

Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Oct 12

Tropical: None · Severe: Quiet · Flood: Slight

What Changed

SPC 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook (issued 0746 AM CDT Monday, October 12, 2026, valid 121300Z–131200Z) remains NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST. Summary: no severe weather forecast across the U.S. today and tonight. No change from the morning desk. No convective watches valid. SPC today’s storm reports (1200 UTC Oct 12 onward) show zero tornado, hail, or wind reports.
WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 0748 UTC / 3:48 AM EDT Monday, October 12, 2026, valid 12Z Mon–12Z Tue) maintains a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall across parts of the Great Basin & Southwest. No Moderate or higher. Residual moisture from Tropical Storm Rachel continues the threat into this afternoon and evening before the pattern shifts east. No change in category from morning.
Flash Flood Warnings for the Paria River corridor (Coconino County, AZ / south-central Kane County, UT) remain in effect this morning. NWS Flagstaff and Salt Lake City report a confirmed flood wave (gauge rise ~3 feet, flow to 2200 CFS). Life-threatening flash flooding of slot canyons, dry washes, and the Colorado River confluence near Lees Ferry. Warnings expire late morning (around 11 AM MDT / 10 AM PDT). Flood Watches continue for western/northern AZ and much of Utah through this afternoon.
Winter Storm Warnings for elevated terrain in central and north-central Montana have expired. No new organized severe windows. Mid-Atlantic residual closed overnight remains closed.

Live Status

As of Monday afternoon, October 12, 2026 (~9:30 AM PDT / 12:30 PM EDT), the national desk stays in Quiet Pulse. SPC Day 1 holds zero severe thunderstorm probability areas and lists no watches. The organized severe window from Isaias remnants closed overnight and has not reopened.

WPC Day 1 ERO keeps the Slight Risk over the Great Basin and Southwest (western/central Mogollon Rim into northwest AZ, Wasatch and canyon areas of UT). Residual Rachel moisture under the deep western trough supports isolated to scattered thunderstorms with locally heavy rain. Antecedent wet ground, burn scars, and slot canyons elevate the flash-flood potential. The threat is expected to wind down after Monday night as the pattern shifts east. Active Flash Flood Warnings cover the Paria River flood wave this morning; the highest residual risk remains over western AZ terrain and southern UT canyons.

No named tropical cyclone threatens or has just hit U.S. land. Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias is fully dissipated. Residual Rachel moisture is the only residual tropical influence, tracked solely by WPC as a flood residual. Hurricane Simon remains offshore Mexico and does not threaten U.S. land.

Hotspots

Southwest / Great Basin residual flood — WPC Slight ERO. Locally heavy rain possible this afternoon into evening over AZ Mogollon Rim, northwest AZ, and UT Wasatch/canyons. Burn-scar and slot-canyon runoff risk elevated. Highest residual western AZ terrain.

Paria River corridor (AZ/UT) — Active Flash Flood Warnings this morning for the confirmed flood wave. Slot canyons, dry washes, Lees Ferry confluence. Window closing late morning; Flood Watches continue broader area through afternoon.

Rest of CONUS — Quiet. SPC no severe areas. Isolated elevated thunderstorms possible Dakotas into Upper Midwest (small hail possible with strongest) and Intermountain West, but no severe threat. Montana winter warnings expired.

Just Hit

No new SPC local storm reports for the October 12 window (1200 UTC onward). The organized severe work from Sunday (NC tornadoes) is closed and under survey. The live work this morning is the Paria River flood wave from residual Rachel moisture.

Pulse Table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS / WPC level	Status this afternoon
Southwest / Great Basin (W/C AZ, NW AZ, SW UT, Wasatch)	Heavy rain, flash flood, burn-scar/slot-canyon runoff	WPC Slight ERO; FFWs Paria this morning	Residual live from Rachel; threat into afternoon/evening then shifts east
Paria River corridor (Coconino AZ / Kane UT)	Life-threatening flash flood, slot canyons, Lees Ferry	Active FFWs (gauge confirmed)	Live this morning; expires late morning; watches broader through afternoon
Mid-Atlantic residual	None	SPC none; WPC none	Closed overnight; remains closed
Montana elevated terrain	Heavy snow (expired)	Winter Storm Warning expired	Closed; additional snow ended early morning
CONUS severe watches / Day 1 outlook	None	SPC: no severe areas; no watches; 0 LSRs today	Quiet

Restoration Read

Quiet Pulse on the severe side. The residual work is water on the Southwest and Great Basin. Teams already on residual Isaias impacts in the Southeast continue extraction and drying. In AZ and UT, monitor the Paria corridor and broader Flood Watch areas for slot-canyon and burn-scar runoff through this afternoon. No new wind or hail tickets. Standard quiet-day posture: check weather.gov for the county, watch the FFWs expire, and stay ready for the residual flood window before it shifts east overnight.

What This Is Not

Not an official warning. Not a Slight or higher severe day. Not a Moderate or higher flood day. Not a tropical threat to the U.S. coast or Gulf. Not a reason to invent activity. Quiet is the status.

Looking Ahead One Day

Day 2 and Day 3 outlooks show the western trough shifting east. Residual flood threat ends after Monday night. Isolated elevated storms possible further east Tuesday, but no severe areas currently indicated for tomorrow. Check the next Day 1 for any evolution.

Rising Queries

Residual interest: hurricane tropical storm, power outage near me (Isaias residual), Rachel remnants / Southwest flood. Trends partially reachable; residual from the recent systems, not a new hotspot spike.

Storm Hubs

Storm hub: Hurricane Isaias 2026 | Tropical Storm Rachel 2026. Dated entries link back to this desk and the morning desk. No active named storms threatening U.S. land.

Morning desk: Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Oct 12 Morning.

Sources: spc.noaa.gov (Day 1 outlook, watches, reports), WPC ERO, weather.gov (watches/warnings, including Paria FFWs), nhc.noaa.gov (no U.S. tropical threats).

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

October 12, 2026

Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Oct 12

Tropical: None · Severe: Quiet · Flood: Slight

What Changed

SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook (latest 0100 UTC / 7:44 PM CDT Monday, October 12, 2026, valid 130100Z–131200Z) continues NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST. Summary: organized severe weather is not expected tonight. A few strong storms possible in central Kansas early this evening (weak buoyancy, late timing) and elevated convection over the lower Great Lakes (isolated small hail); no severe threat. Unchanged from morning desk and 1300 UTC. No watches or mesoscale discussions valid. Zero LSRs for the October 12 window.
WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 1553 UTC / 11:53 AM EDT Monday, valid 16Z Mon–12Z Tue) maintains a Slight Risk across parts of the Great Basin and Southwest. No Moderate or higher. Residual from Tropical Storm Rachel under the western trough. Category unchanged.
Flash Flood Warnings and broader Flood Watches for the Paria River corridor (AZ/UT) and related areas expired earlier Monday. Residual runoff possible in slot canyons, burn scars, and downstream. Mid-Atlantic residual remains closed. Nothing reopened on the severe board.
No tropical storm or hurricane watches or warnings on the U.S. coast or Gulf of Mexico. Post-Tropical Isaias fully dissipated. Residual Rachel moisture is the sole tropical influence, tracked by WPC as flood residual. Hurricane Simon remains offshore Mexico (near Cabo Corrientes) with Hurricane Warning on offshore waters only; no U.S. land threat.
SPC Day 2 Outlook (1730 UTC) places a Slight Risk over portions of the southern and central Plains into the Lower Missouri Valley for Tuesday afternoon into night.

Live Status

As of late Monday evening, October 12, 2026 (~9:14 PM PDT), the national desk remains Quiet Pulse. SPC Day 1 holds zero severe thunderstorm probability areas and lists no watches. Organized severe from Isaias remnants closed overnight and stayed closed. Zero local storm reports received today.

WPC Day 1 ERO keeps the Slight Risk over the Great Basin and Southwest (western/central Mogollon Rim into northwest AZ, Wasatch and canyon areas of UT). Residual Rachel moisture supports isolated to scattered thunderstorms with locally heavy rain possible into the evening. Antecedent wet ground, burn scars, and slot canyons elevate flash-flood potential. The threat is expected to wind down after Monday night as the pattern shifts east. Paria products have expired; residual runoff possible as water moves through the system.

No named tropical cyclone threatens or has just hit U.S. land. Isaias is fully dissipated. Residual Rachel moisture is the only residual tropical influence. Hurricane Simon stays well clear of the U.S. Residual minor river flooding persists in the Carolinas and other basins from prior rains, non-severe.

Hotspots

Southwest / Great Basin residual flood — WPC Slight ERO. Locally heavy rain possible into the evening over AZ Mogollon Rim, northwest AZ, and UT Wasatch/canyons. Burn-scar and slot-canyon runoff risk elevated. Highest residual over western AZ terrain; winding down overnight.

Paria River corridor (AZ/UT) — FFW and Flood Watch expired. Residual slot canyon and Lees Ferry risk as the confirmed flood wave moves downstream.

Rest of CONUS — Quiet. SPC no severe areas. Isolated elevated thunderstorms possible over the Upper Great Lakes or near the KS cold front, but no severe threat. Residual minor river flooding in the Carolinas and LA/TX remains non-severe.

Just Hit

No new SPC local storm reports for the October 12 window. The organized severe work from Sunday is closed. The live residual work was the Paria River flood wave from residual Rachel moisture, which has passed the gauge and is moving through the system. Flood products expired this afternoon.

Pulse Table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS / WPC level	Status this evening
Southwest / Great Basin (W/C AZ, NW AZ, SW UT, Wasatch)	Heavy rain, flash flood, burn-scar/slot-canyon runoff	WPC Slight ERO	Residual live from Rachel; threat into evening then shifts east
Paria River corridor (Coconino AZ / Kane UT)	Residual flash flood, slot canyons, Lees Ferry	FFW and Flood Watches expired	Wave passed; residual downstream; products closed
Mid-Atlantic residual	None	SPC none; WPC none	Closed overnight; remains closed
Carolinas / LA-TX rivers	Minor river flooding residual	Flood Warnings ongoing non-severe	Receding from prior rains
CONUS severe watches / Day 1 outlook	None	SPC: no severe areas; no watches; 0 LSRs today	Quiet

Restoration Read

Quiet Pulse on the severe side. The residual work is water on the Southwest and Great Basin. Teams already on residual Isaias impacts in the Southeast continue extraction and drying. In AZ and UT, residual slot-canyon and burn-scar runoff risk continues through this evening before the pattern shifts east. No new wind or hail tickets. Standard quiet-day posture: check weather.gov for the county and stay ready for the residual flood window before it ends overnight.

What This Is Not

Not an official warning. Not a Slight or higher severe day. Not a Moderate or higher flood day. Not a tropical threat to the U.S. coast or Gulf. Not a reason to invent activity. Quiet is the status.

Looking Ahead One Day

The western trough shifts east. Residual flood threat ends after Monday night. SPC Day 2 Convective Outlook (1730 UTC, updated 11:58 AM CDT Monday, October 12, 2026, valid 131200Z–141200Z) carries a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms across portions of the southern and central Plains into the Lower Missouri Valley Tuesday afternoon into night (large hail and damaging winds possible; isolated tornado near the triple point). Isolated elevated storms possible further east. Check the next Day 1 for any evolution.

Rising Queries

Residual interest: “hurricane tropical storm”, “power outage near me” (tied to recent Isaias residual and cleanup). Trends data limited this run; residual queries only.

Storm Hubs

Storm hub: Hurricane Isaias 2026 | Tropical Storm Rachel 2026. Dated entries link back to this desk and the morning desk. No active named storms threatening U.S. land.

Morning desk: Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Oct 12 Morning.

Sources: spc.noaa.gov (Day 1 outlook, watches, reports), WPC ERO, weather.gov (watches/warnings), nhc.noaa.gov (no U.S. tropical threats).

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

October 12, 2026

Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Oct 12 Morning

Tropical: None · Severe: Quiet · Flood: Slight

What Changed

SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook (0600 UTC / 12:35 AM CDT Monday, October 12, 2026, valid 121200Z–131200Z, and subsequent updates including 0100 UTC) holds NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST. Summary: No severe weather is forecast across the U.S. today and tonight. Dropped from the prior Marginal residual on Mid-Atlantic and Desert Southwest. No convective watches valid. Zero LSRs for the period.
WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 1553 UTC / 11:53 AM EDT Monday, October 12, 2026, valid 16Z Mon–12Z Tue) maintains a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall across parts of the Great Basin & Southwest. No Moderate or higher. Residual from dissipated Tropical Storm Rachel. Unchanged category.
Active Flash Flood Warnings in southern Utah (Zion, Forsyth burn scar, Paria corridor) expired earlier Monday. Residual runoff possible in burn scars and slot canyons. Mid-Atlantic residual closed. Nothing reopened on the severe board.
No tropical storm or hurricane watches or warnings on the U.S. coast or Gulf. Post-Tropical Isaias fully dissipated. Residual Rachel moisture tracked only as WPC flood residual. Hurricane Simon (Eastern Pacific) offshore Mexico, no U.S. land threat. Quiet Pulse holds.

Live Status

As of the Monday morning desk, October 12, 2026, the national picture is Quiet Pulse. SPC Day 1 lists no severe thunderstorm probability areas and no watches. Organized severe from Isaias remnants closed overnight and stayed closed. Isolated thunderstorms possible near a cold front across the Great Lakes or in the Intermountain West under southwest flow, but no severe threat forecast. Zero local storm reports.

WPC Day 1 ERO holds the Slight Risk over the Great Basin and Southwest (western/central Mogollon Rim into northwest Arizona, Wasatch and canyon areas of Utah). Residual moisture from Tropical Storm Rachel supports isolated to scattered thunderstorms with locally heavy rain possible through the day into evening. Antecedent wet ground, burn scars, and slot canyons keep flash-flood potential elevated even after warnings expired. Pattern expected to shift east after Monday night.

No named tropical cyclone threatens or has just hit U.S. land. Isaias is fully dissipated. Residual Rachel moisture is the sole residual tropical influence, tracked by WPC. Residual minor river flooding persists in the Carolinas and other basins from prior rains; non-severe. High wind products in the Intermountain West are non-severe.

Pulse Table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS / WPC level	Status this morning
Southwest / Great Basin (W/C AZ, NW AZ, SW UT, Wasatch)	Heavy rain, flash flood, burn-scar/slot-canyon runoff	WPC Slight ERO	Residual live from Rachel; threat through day then shifts east
Paria River corridor (Coconino AZ / Kane UT)	Residual flash flood, slot canyons	FFW and Flood Watches expired	Wave passed; residual downstream possible
Mid-Atlantic residual / eastern NC-SE VA	None	SPC none; WPC none	Closed overnight; remains closed
Carolinas rivers	Minor river flooding residual	Flood Warnings ongoing non-severe	Receding from prior rains
CONUS severe watches / Day 1 outlook	None	SPC: no severe areas; no watches; 0 LSRs	Quiet

Rising Queries

Trends unreachable.

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watches, and local storm reports, WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay, and nhc.noaa.gov for residual products.

Storm hubs (residual): Hurricane Isaias 2026 | Tropical Storm Rachel 2026. No active named storms threatening U.S. land.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

October 12, 2026

Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Oct 11

Tropical: None (Isaias & Rachel dissipated) · Severe: Marginal · Flood: Slight

What Changed

SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook (0100 UTC / 7:47 PM CDT Sunday, October 11, 2026, valid 120100Z–121200Z) holds only a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of the Mid-Atlantic (isolated tornado threat near the coast for a few more hours) and Desert Southwest (isolated severe gusts). No Slight or higher risk remains. Current watches page lists no convective watches valid; Tornado Watch 681 expired earlier.
WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 0056 UTC Monday, October 12 / 8:56 PM EDT Sunday, October 11, 2026) maintains a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall across parts of the Great Basin and Southwest from residual Rachel moisture. Moderate Risk dropped. Mid-Atlantic reduced to Marginal Risk. Isaias surface low dissipated over West Virginia.
Active Flash Flood Warnings continue in southern Utah, including extensions for Zion National Park (West Central Kane / East Central Washington counties) and the Forsyth burn scar (Central Washington County), with observed flash flooding and considerable damage threat reported.
No tropical storm or hurricane watches or warnings remain in effect for the U.S. coast or Gulf. Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias has fully dissipated. Remnants of Rachel continue to support residual moisture in the Southwest/Great Basin. Hurricane Simon remains offshore Mexico and does not threaten U.S. land.
Preliminary tornado reports from Sunday afternoon across central and eastern North Carolina (including Candor, Clarendon, Atkinson, Fayetteville area, and near Raleigh) remain under NWS survey. The organized severe window is closed.

Live Status

As of late Sunday evening, October 11, 2026 (around 8:12 p.m. PDT / 11:12 p.m. EDT), the day has entered Quiet Pulse status. SPC holds no Slight or higher convective risk and lists no current watches. Residual Marginal Risk exists for isolated tornadoes near the Mid-Atlantic coast for a few more hours and isolated severe gusts in the Desert Southwest under leftover shear and moisture.

Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias has dissipated. Its surface low elongated into a trough over West Virginia and was absorbed. Residual rainfall of 1 to 3 inches remains possible overnight across portions of the Central Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic under a WPC Marginal Risk, but the heavy rain threat is decreasing. Earlier overnight totals of several inches produced flash flooding and landslides in western North Carolina; residual Flood Warnings persist in some elevated areas.

In the Southwest and Great Basin, residual moisture from Post-Tropical Cyclone Rachel supports a WPC Slight Risk of excessive rainfall. The highest residual risk is across western Arizona, with a broader Slight covering northwest Arizona into portions of the Great Basin. Active Flash Flood Warnings cover Zion National Park and the Forsyth burn scar in southern Utah, where thunderstorms have produced heavy rain and observed flash flooding with considerable damage threat. Vulnerable locations include burn scars, slot canyons, dry washes, and urban areas. High Wind Warnings and Wind Advisories remain in effect across parts of Arizona, California, and Nevada.

No tropical storm or hurricane watches or warnings are in effect for the U.S. coast or Gulf of Mexico. All prior tropical products for Isaias and Rachel have been discontinued or reduced to residual flood tracking by WPC.

Hotspots

Southwest / Great Basin residual flood: Primary live residual under WPC Slight Risk from Rachel remnants. Active Flash Flood Warnings in southern Utah (Zion National Park, Forsyth burn scar) with observed flooding and considerable damage threat. Highest residual risk western Arizona into Great Basin. Burn scars, canyons, and urban areas remain vulnerable.

Mid-Atlantic residual severe and flood: Organized window closed after Tornado Watch 681 expired. Multiple preliminary tornadoes in central and eastern North Carolina under survey (Candor, Clarendon, Atkinson, Fayetteville, Raleigh area). Residual Marginal Risk near the coast this evening. WPC Marginal residual rain possible overnight.

Blue Ridge / Central Appalachians residual: Decreasing flood risk as Isaias dissipated. Significant overnight rainfall already produced flash flooding and landslides in western North Carolina. Residual Marginal Risk overnight.

Just Hit

Sunday afternoon tornadoes across central and eastern North Carolina, including observed near Atkinson (Pender County), preliminary or confirmed near Candor (Montgomery — building destroyed), Clarendon (Columbus — structures destroyed), Fayetteville area (Cumberland), Jordan Lake (Chatham), and near Raleigh/Clayton. NWS surveys ongoing. Residual Flash Flood Warnings active in southern Utah from Rachel moisture. Power outages from earlier Isaias impacts continue, with Florida and Alabama still seeing the largest numbers.

Pulse Table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS / WPC level	Status this evening
Mid-Atlantic coast / eastern NC-SE VA	Isolated residual tornado, residual flood	SPC Marginal (Slight closed, Watch 681 expired)	Window largely closed; residual isolated this evening
Southwest / Great Basin (S CA / S NV / NW AZ / SW UT)	Heavy rain, flash flood, gusty winds	WPC Slight excessive rainfall; active FFW in UT	Residual live, Rachel remnants; Zion/Forsyth active
Blue Ridge / Central Appalachians residual	Upslope residual rain, flash flood, landslides	WPC Marginal excessive rainfall	Decreasing; overnight heavy totals already on ground
Tennessee Valley / Isaias residual	Dissipated	Post-tropical dissipated	Surface low absorbed; residual decreasing

Rising Queries

Rising queries tied to today’s residual: “power outage near me” (driven by residual Isaias impacts in the Southeast), “tornado near me” / North Carolina tornado reports, residual flood and flash flood queries for the Southwest and Utah burn scars. Trends data partial this run.

Restoration Read

Coastal wind and surge work from the Friday night Destin landfall remains closed. Immediate residual tickets are inland freshwater extraction and tree/road clearance from Isaias rain in the Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic, plus survey of the afternoon North Carolina tornadoes. On the West Coast, residual flash flooding under the Rachel Slight Risk, especially burn scars and canyons in southern Utah and western Arizona. Distinguish residual Appalachian work from Southwest residual. Power outage restoration continues across the Southeast.

What This Is Not

This is not an active hurricane or tropical-storm warning on the Gulf or Atlantic coast. All Storm Surge and Tropical Storm Warnings for Isaias and Rachel have been discontinued. It is not a plains or Midwest severe outbreak. The organized hazards were the earlier SPC Slight Risk and now-expired Tornado Watch 681 in eastern North Carolina and southeast Virginia (with multiple tornado reports), and the WPC Slight (Moderate dropped) excessive-rainfall risk in the Great Basin and Southwest from Rachel remnants. No new NHC hurricane or storm-surge warning has been issued for U.S. land this run.

Looking Ahead

Isaias remnants are fully dissipated. SPC Day 2 outlook shows no severe thunderstorm areas forecast for Monday. Rachel remnants will continue residual heavy rainfall and gusty winds over the Southwest before further dissipation. Watch the next Storm Tracker update for verification of the Mid-Atlantic tornado reports and any further contraction of the Southwest flood products.

Sources and How to Verify

Primary sources, dated Sunday, October 11, 2026: NOAA Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Convective Outlook (0100 UTC October 12, Marginal Risk Mid-Atlantic and Desert Southwest) and Current Watches (no watches currently valid; most recently #681); Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook and Discussion (Slight Risk Great Basin and Southwest, updated 0056 UTC); NHC final products for Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias and Remnants of Rachel. Morning desk: Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Oct 11 Morning.

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook and local storm reports, WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay, and nhc.noaa.gov for residual products.

Storm hub: Hurricane Isaias 2026 | Tropical Storm Rachel 2026. Dated entries link this desk and the morning desk.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

October 11, 2026

Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Oct 11 Morning

Tropical: None (Isaias & Rachel dissipated) · Severe: Marginal · Flood: Slight

What Changed

SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook (0100 UTC / 7:47 PM CDT Sunday, October 11, 2026, valid 120100Z–121200Z) holds only a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of the Mid-Atlantic (isolated tornado threat near the coast for a few more hours) and Desert Southwest (isolated severe gusts). No Slight or higher risk remains. Current watches page lists no convective watches valid; Tornado Watch 681 expired earlier.
WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 0056 UTC Monday, October 12 / 8:56 PM EDT Sunday, October 11, 2026) maintains a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall across parts of the Great Basin and Southwest from residual Rachel moisture. Moderate Risk dropped. Mid-Atlantic reduced to Marginal Risk. Isaias surface low dissipated over West Virginia.
Active Flash Flood Warnings continue in southern Utah, including extensions for Zion National Park (West Central Kane / East Central Washington counties) and the Forsyth burn scar (Central Washington County), with observed flash flooding and considerable damage threat reported.
No tropical storm or hurricane watches or warnings remain in effect for the U.S. coast or Gulf. Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias has fully dissipated. Remnants of Rachel continue to support residual moisture in the Southwest/Great Basin. Hurricane Simon remains offshore Mexico and does not threaten U.S. land.
Preliminary tornado reports from Sunday afternoon across central and eastern North Carolina (including Candor, Clarendon, Atkinson, Fayetteville area, and near Raleigh) remain under NWS survey. The organized severe window is closed.

Live Status

Pulse Table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS / WPC level	Status this evening
Mid-Atlantic coast / eastern NC-SE VA	Isolated residual tornado, residual flood	SPC Marginal (Slight closed, Watch 681 expired)	Window largely closed; residual isolated this evening
Southwest / Great Basin (S CA / S NV / NW AZ / SW UT)	Heavy rain, flash flood, gusty winds	WPC Slight excessive rainfall; active FFW in UT	Residual live, Rachel remnants; Zion/Forsyth active
Blue Ridge / Central Appalachians residual	Upslope residual rain, flash flood, landslides	WPC Marginal excessive rainfall	Decreasing; overnight heavy totals already on ground
Tennessee Valley / Isaias residual	Dissipated	Post-tropical dissipated	Surface low absorbed; residual decreasing

Rising Queries

Trends unreachable this run.

Storm Hubs

Storm hub: Hurricane Isaias 2026 | Tropical Storm Rachel 2026. Dated entries link back to this desk.

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watches, and local storm reports, WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay, and nhc.noaa.gov for residual products.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

October 10, 2026