Tag: Storm Updates

Real-time severe weather tracking, storm pulses, and meteorological incident reporting.

  • Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Oct 24

    Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Oct 24

    As of this Saturday evening update to the afternoon desk, October 24, 2026 (approximately 9:14 PM PDT / 12:14 AM EDT / 0414Z October 25), the national picture remains a Quiet Pulse. The Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Convective Outlook holds a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms across portions of central and southern New Mexico and far west Texas. Isolated severe wind, hail, and a tornado remain possible this evening as storms continue but instability decreases with nocturnal cooling. Severe Thunderstorm Watch 697 is valid until 0400Z October 25 (9 PM PDT). The Weather Prediction Center holds a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over portions of West Texas, New Mexico, and Colorado. No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning is in effect on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America.

    Tropical: None · Severe: Marginal · Flood: Slight

    What Changed

    • Compared with this morning’s pulse table (quiet-pulse-2026-10-24-morning: Severe: Marginal · Flood: Slight · Tropical: None): the latest SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook (0100 UTC October 25 / 8:07 PM CDT Saturday, October 24, 2026, valid 250100Z–251200Z) confirms a MARGINAL RISK of severe thunderstorms across portions of central and southern New Mexico and far west Texas. Isolated severe wind/hail and a tornado remain possible this evening; the environment is becoming less conducive with nocturnal cooling.
    • Severe Thunderstorm Watch 697 (issued ~2055Z October 24 for NM TX) remains valid until 0400Z October 25. Status reports indicate the severe weather threat continues in portions of central/southeast New Mexico and far west Texas. Primary residual threats are isolated large hail and severe gusts as storms congeal.
    • WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 0102 UTC Sunday October 25, valid 01Z–12Z Oct 25) holds a SLIGHT RISK for portions of West Texas, New Mexico, and Colorado into far western Kansas. Highest totals 1.5–3 inches possible. No Moderate or above. Active Flash Flood Warnings continue in El Paso/Hudspeth County TX and Bernalillo/Santa Fe area NM on saturated soils.
    • No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America. Atlantic basin remains quiet. Eastern Pacific hurricane activity (Vance) is well south of Mexico with no U.S. land threat.
    • Severe lane holds at Marginal. Flood lane holds at Slight. Quiet Pulse criteria met. Primary residual ticket is isolated hail/wind and flash-flood runoff in New Mexico and far west Texas.

    Live Status

    SPC Day 1 lists a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) of severe thunderstorms for central and southern New Mexico and far west Texas. Showers and thunderstorms continue across the Southwest this evening. The most intense cells are across Far West Texas north into central New Mexico, where radar suggests large hail and severe gusts remain possible. The 00 UTC Albuquerque sounding showed MUCAPE around 900 J/kg that is peaking and will weaken with low-level stabilization. Congealing storms and decreasing buoyancy lead to an increasingly sporadic severe threat overnight.

    Watch 697 covers the core area in NM and TX until 9 PM PDT. Local NWS offices continue Flash Flood Warnings in southeastern El Paso County and western Hudspeth County TX (until ~1:30 AM MDT in some segments) and in Bernalillo, northwestern Torrance, and southwestern Santa Fe Counties NM (until ~11:15 PM MDT), with observed heavy rain of 1–3 inches and road impacts including I-40 segments.

    WPC maintains the Slight Risk of excessive rainfall. Rainfall rates of 1–1.5 inches per hour possible in the highest zones, capable of flash flooding in urban areas, roads, small streams, narrow canyons, and burn scars, especially where prior rainfall has saturated soils. No Moderate or higher ERO.

    Hotspots

    • Central New Mexico (Albuquerque, Santa Fe, Rio Rancho corridor): Marginal severe residual and WPC Slight. Ongoing convection with isolated hail/wind possible into the evening. Flash Flood Warnings active in sensitive terrain and urban areas on saturated soils. I-40 segments impacted.
    • Far west Texas and El Paso / Hudspeth County: Marginal severe overlap. Flash Flood Warnings for southeastern El Paso and western Hudspeth. Storms moving northeast. Urban runoff risk under the Slight ERO.
    • Southeastern Colorado and northeastern New Mexico: WPC Slight Risk for excessive rainfall. Residual upslope and training potential. Lower severe threat. Sensitivity from earlier activity this week.

    Just-Hit

    Flash Flood Warnings remain active or recently extended in southeastern El Paso County and western Hudspeth County TX, and in Bernalillo, northwestern Torrance, and southwestern Santa Fe Counties NM. Observed rainfall 1–3 inches in spots with flash flooding of creeks, urban areas, and highways. No confirmed significant tornado reports at this desk time. Localized flooding and residual wind/hail impacts ongoing in the Southwest corridor.

    Pulse Table

    LaneStatusNotes (as of ~9:14 PM PDT / 0414Z Oct 25 2026)
    TropicalNoneNo tropical cyclones in the Atlantic. Hurricane Vance (EPAC) far south of Mexico. No U.S. coastal or Gulf watches or warnings.
    SevereMarginalSPC Day 1 Marginal Risk over central/southern NM and far west TX. Watch 697 until 0400Z. Isolated hail/wind/tornado possible this evening. Threat decreasing overnight.
    FloodSlightWPC Day 1 Slight Risk for portions of NM, southern CO, and far west TX. 1.5–3″ possible. Active FFWs. Residual sensitivity. No Moderate or higher.

    Restoration Read

    Residual restoration ticket is isolated hail and wind damage to roofs, vehicles, siding, and trees across central and southern New Mexico and far west Texas under the Marginal Risk and closing Watch 697. Secondary ticket is localized flash flooding and rapid runoff in urban corridors (El Paso, Albuquerque), small streams, canyons, and burn scars on already saturated soils. No widespread catastrophic damage expected; threats diminish overnight.

    What This Is Not

    This is a Quiet Pulse. No SPC Slight or higher severe risk remains on the latest Day 1 outlook. No WPC Moderate or higher excessive rainfall. No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America. This desk summarizes public products from the SPC, WPC, NWS, and NHC. It is not an official warning.

    Looking Ahead

    Sunday (Day 2): SPC outlooks a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms continuing from southern/eastern New Mexico into far west Texas for isolated large hail. WPC maintains some excessive rainfall potential as the upper low progresses. The organized severe window closes overnight tonight. Monitor local NWS offices for any lingering warnings.

    Rising Queries

    Trends unreachable.

    Sources

    Official products: Storm Prediction Center (Day 1 Outlook 0100Z Oct 25, Watch 697), Weather Prediction Center (Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook), National Weather Service (watches, warnings, flood statements), National Hurricane Center (Atlantic quiet; Hurricane Vance Eastern Pacific). Morning desk: quiet-pulse-2026-10-24-morning.

    Informational only — not an official weather warning. Always check weather.gov for local forecasts and warnings. Turn around, don’t drown.

  • Storm Updates: New Mexico Severe — Oct 24 Morning

    Storm Updates: New Mexico Severe — Oct 24 Morning

    Tropical: None · Severe: Marginal · Flood: Slight

    What Changed

    • SPC Day 1 (latest 0100Z Oct 25 / 0807 PM CDT Oct 24, valid 250100Z-251200Z) now Marginal Risk for central/southern New Mexico and Far West Texas, stepped down from daytime Slight Risk. Isolated severe wind/hail and tornado remain possible this evening as instability decreases.
    • Severe Thunderstorm Watch #697 remains active until 0400Z Oct 25 (9 PM MST) for central into SE NM and Far West TX. Threats: damaging winds, large hail (to 2″), isolated tornado.
    • Ongoing LSRs and warnings: hail to 1.25″, winds to 75 mph reported; multiple Severe TSTM and Flash Flood Warnings in NM/TX/CO as of late Oct 24.
    • WPC Day 1 ERO Slight Risk maintained for West TX, NM, CO (updated ~0732Z Oct 24). Flash Flood Warnings active, including considerable threats and road closures.
    • No change in tropical: none for U.S. Hurricane Vance (EP) no U.S. threat. Atlantic quiet.

    Pulse Table

    LaneStatusDetails (as of ~0212Z Oct 25 / evening Oct 24 PDT)
    SevereMarginalSPC latest Day 1 Marginal NM/Far West TX. Watch 697 live. LSRs hail 1″+ / winds 60-75 mph (Oct 24).
    FloodSlightWPC Day 1 Slight ERO. Active Flash Flood Warnings NM (Lincoln, Cibola etc.), TX, CO. I-40 impacts reported.
    TropicalNoneNo U.S. watches/warnings. Vance EP ~90 mph south of Mexico. Atlantic no cyclones.

    Official Outlooks

    SPC Day 1 latest (SPC AC 250107, 0807 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026): THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS. Isolated severe wind/hail and a tornado remain possible this evening. Storms continue but buoyancy weakening with nocturnal cooling; threat increasingly sporadic overnight.

    Earlier 1300Z outlook had Slight Risk for afternoon/evening. Watch 697 issued 155 PM MST covering the core. MD 2408 confirmed ongoing hail >1″ and 60-70 mph gusts into evening.

    WPC Day 1 ERO (Dolan, ~0732Z Oct 24, valid 12Z Oct 24-12Z Oct 25): SLIGHT RISK of excessive rainfall for portions of West Texas, New Mexico, and Colorado. 1.5-3″ possible, rates challenging flash flood guidance, especially on wet soils. Marginal elsewhere including Four Corners and SE Florida.

    NWS: Active Severe Thunderstorm Warnings and Flash Flood Warnings (observed flooding, considerable threats in places like Lincoln NM, Cibola with I-40 closed). SPC storm reports Oct 24: 1″ hail Canutillo TX / White Sands / Lincoln NM; winds 58-75 mph in Dona Ana / Otero NM.

    NHC: No tropical cyclones in Atlantic. Hurricane Vance Eastern Pacific holding ~90 mph, well south of Mexico, no U.S. impact. No TS/H watches for U.S. coast or Gulf.

    Rising Queries

    Trends unreachable.

    Informational only — not an official warning. Check latest SPC, WPC, NWS, NHC.

  • Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Oct 23

    Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Oct 23

    Tropical: None · Severe: Marginal · Flood: Slight

    What Changed

    • Compared with this morning’s pulse table (quiet-pulse-2026-10-23-morning: Severe: Slight · Flood: Slight): the latest SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook (0100 UTC October 24 / 8:02 PM CDT Friday, October 23, 2026, valid 240100Z–241200Z) holds a MARGINAL RISK of severe thunderstorms over portions of New Mexico, southern Colorado and far west Texas (roughly 82,400 sq mi, 2.4 million people). Isolated large hail, severe gusts and perhaps a tornado remain possible this evening; the environment is becoming less conducive with decreasing buoyancy and nocturnal cooling.
    • No convective watches are currently valid. Severe Thunderstorm Watch 696 (most recently issued) has expired. No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect. The organized severe window is closing.
    • WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 0057 UTC Saturday October 24 / discussion 8:57 PM EDT Friday, valid 01Z–12Z October 24) continues a SLIGHT RISK for portions of New Mexico, southern Colorado and far west Texas. No Moderate or above. Residual sensitivity from prior rainfall in terrain and burn scars.
    • No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America. Hurricane Vance (Eastern Pacific, ~110 mph, ~12.0°N 102.6°W) continues well south of Mexico with no U.S. land threat. Atlantic quiet; no tropical cyclones.
    • The categorical severe lane remains at Marginal after the daytime Slight. Flood lane holds at Slight. Quiet Pulse is open.

    Live Status

    As of this Friday afternoon desk, October 23, 2026 (approximately 9:14 PM PDT / 12:14 AM EDT October 24 / 0414Z October 24), the national picture is a Quiet Pulse. SPC Day 1 lists a Marginal Risk over portions of New Mexico, southern Colorado and far west Texas. Scattered thunderstorms organized into a mix of supercells and clusters earlier, with hail and severe gusts the primary risks. The severe threat is becoming increasingly isolated as nocturnal cooling sets in. No watches are valid.

    WPC Day 1 holds a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over the same general region. Locally heavy rainfall rates remain possible in intense cells, with isolated flash flooding possible on steep terrain, burn scars and urban areas. The tropical lane is closed for U.S. impact.

    Hotspots

    Central and western New Mexico / far west Texas: Marginal severe risk. Albuquerque, Santa Fe, Las Cruces and El Paso areas included in the footprint. Isolated hail and wind possible this evening. Threat diminishing. Prior Watch 696 has expired.

    Northern New Mexico and southern Colorado: Marginal severe overlapping Slight excessive rainfall risk. Terrain-driven heavy rain possible. Residual flash-flood sensitivity from prior activity. Highest concern on burn scars and steep slopes.

    Far west Texas (El Paso corridor): Included in both the Marginal severe and Slight flood areas. Straight hodographs earlier favored splitting supercells with hail as the main threat. Activity winding down.

    Just-Hit

    Severe Thunderstorm Watch 696 was active earlier today until 9 PM MDT. Special Weather Statements and Severe Thunderstorm Warnings issued this afternoon for strong storms producing nickel-size hail and gusts near 50–60 mph in the Albuquerque metro vicinity and other New Mexico counties. Preliminary local storm reports include hail and wind gusts, primarily outside the core NM area in adjacent states. Flash Flood Warnings active earlier in portions of New Mexico. No widespread major damage reports confirmed at this desk time; isolated hail and wind impacts likely. Prior overnight Moderate flood activity produced verified flash flooding in the Four Corners high terrain.

    Pulse Table

    LaneStatusNotes (as of ~9:14 PM PDT / 0414Z Oct 24 2026)
    TropicalNoneNo named systems threatening U.S. land or Gulf. Hurricane Vance far south of Mexico (~110 mph). No U.S. tropical watches or warnings. Atlantic quiet.
    SevereMarginalSPC Day 1 (0100Z Oct 24): Marginal over portions of NM, southern CO and far west TX (~82k sq mi). Isolated hail, gusts, perhaps a tornado this evening. No watches or MDs valid. Threat diminishing.
    FloodSlightWPC Day 1 Slight for portions of NM, southern CO and far west TX. Residual sensitivity from prior rainfall. No Moderate or higher.

    Rising Queries

    Trends unreachable

    Restoration Read

    Dominant residual ticket is New Mexico and far west Texas hail and wind under the earlier Slight Risk and now-expired Watch 696. Isolated roof, vehicle and vegetation damage possible from large hail and gusts. Residual flash-flood sensitivity remains in northern New Mexico and southern Colorado terrain and burn scars. No tropical component. Monitor for any remaining Severe Thunderstorm Warnings or Flash Flood Warnings.

    What This Is Not

    This is not an official forecast or warning. It is a desk summary of public products from the SPC, WPC, NWS and NHC as of the afternoon update. SPC holds Marginal. WPC holds Slight excessive rainfall. No U.S. tropical watches or warnings are active. Quiet Pulse is open.

    Looking Ahead

    Saturday: SPC Day 2 maintains a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms across New Mexico and far west Texas. The severe threat continues to diminish overnight tonight after the peak this afternoon and evening. Residual runoff possible in saturated basins. No new tropical threat indicated for U.S. land.

    Sources

    Informational only — not an official warning. Always confirm with the latest official forecasts from weather.gov, spc.noaa.gov, wpc.ncep.noaa.gov, and nhc.noaa.gov. Turn around, don’t drown.

  • Storm Updates: Four Corners Flood — Oct 22 Morning

    Storm Updates: Four Corners Flood — Oct 22 Morning

    As of this Thursday morning desk, October 22, 2026 (approximately 9:12 PM PDT / 12:12 AM EDT October 23 / 0412Z October 23), the national picture centers on the Southwest and Four Corners. The Weather Prediction Center holds a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall over portions of southwest Colorado, southern Utah and northwestern New Mexico. The Storm Prediction Center maintains a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms from eastern Arizona into western New Mexico. Post-Tropical Cyclone Josephine continues moving away with no U.S. coastal watches or warnings.

    Tropical: None · Severe: Slight · Flood: Moderate

    What Changed

    • Compared with the October 21 afternoon desk (quiet-pulse-2026-10-21-afternoon) and the prior version of this morning desk: SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook (0100 UTC October 23 / 8:01 PM CDT Thursday, October 22, 2026, valid 230100Z–231200Z) continues a SLIGHT RISK of severe thunderstorms from eastern Arizona into western New Mexico. Scattered severe storms remain possible across the Southwest and Great Basin tonight, with the most intense cells expected across western New Mexico through the remainder of this evening. Large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two are possible. No upgrade beyond Slight.
    • WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 0042 UTC Friday October 23 / discussion 8:44 PM EDT Thursday, valid 01Z–12Z October 23) holds a MODERATE RISK over portions of southwest Colorado, southern Utah and northwestern New Mexico (expanded southward into NW NM). Additional 1–2 inches (locally higher) possible; flash flooding likely in terrain, burn scars and slot canyons. Surrounding Slight Risk remains.
    • NHC confirms Josephine has become a powerful extratropical low. No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning is in effect on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America. The system is accelerating northeastward away from the United States. Eastern Pacific Tropical Storm Vance remains well south of Mexico with no U.S. land threat.
    • Severe Thunderstorm Warnings and a Severe Thunderstorm Watch have been in effect across portions of Arizona. Flash Flood Warnings remain active for sensitive areas including Apache County (Canyon de Chelly / Chinle Creek) and other Four Corners drainages. Flood Watches continue regionally.
    • Nothing material closed the severe or flood lanes. Moderate flood risk is the highest open categorical level on Day 1. Quiet Pulse remains closed. This morning desk is updated in place under the standard slug; afternoon companion already live under quiet-pulse-2026-10-22-afternoon.

    Live Status

    SPC Day 1 (0100Z October 23) lists a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) from eastern Arizona into western New Mexico and the Four Corners. Mid-level southerly flow remains strong on the eastern periphery of the upper trough. Ongoing convection is a mix of supercells and linear clusters shifting into western New Mexico and southern Colorado. Buoyancy supports robust storms into the evening (MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg in favored areas) with deep-layer shear of 50–60 kt. Primary hazards are large hail, damaging winds and a tornado or two, maximized from northwestern New Mexico northward toward southern Colorado where low-level flow is backed and terrain influences hodograph curvature. Marginal Risk covers broader portions of the Great Basin.

    WPC Day 1 maintains the Moderate Risk (Level 3 of 4) over southwest Colorado (San Juan Mountains), southern Utah and northwestern New Mexico. Antecedent rainfall, upslope flow and training convection support elevated flash-flood potential. Hourly rates of 0.5–1+ inches are possible; additional 1–2 inches (locally higher) expected in the Moderate area. A broader Slight Risk covers additional Southwest terrain. Marginal Risk remains for parts of the interior Northwest and southeast Florida.

    Hotspots

    Four Corners (southwest Colorado, southern Utah, northwest New Mexico): Moderate excessive rainfall risk. Heavy rain cores on the San Juans and surrounding high terrain, plus southern Utah canyons and burn scars. Life-threatening flooding possible in slot canyons, dry washes and urban areas. Evacuation orders noted earlier in some southern Utah locations. Flash Flood Warnings verified in upstream Arizona basins.

    Eastern and central Arizona into western New Mexico: Slight severe risk. Supercells and clusters producing large hail and damaging winds; tornado potential elevated where low-level shear and topography align. Phoenix metro and Mogollon Rim remain in or near the risk area. Flash flooding accompanies the convection.

    Residual California and Great Basin: Isolated severe hail/wind and brief tornado potential under limited instability ahead of the upper low. Marginal excessive rainfall risk in places; main threat is terrain-driven runoff rather than widespread flooding.

    Just-Hit

    National Weather Service offices have issued multiple Severe Thunderstorm Warnings across Arizona (Flagstaff and Phoenix CWAs) for 60 mph winds and quarter-size hail. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been in effect for portions of northern and eastern Arizona. Flash Flood Warnings are active for Apache County (Canyon de Chelly / Chinle Creek) with considerable damage threat noted. Local storm reports continue to verify hail and wind within the Slight Risk area. Rapid runoff is occurring in sensitive basins including the Paria River and Oak Creek corridors.

    Pulse Table

    LaneStatusNotes (as of ~9:12 PM PDT / 0412Z 23 Oct 2026)
    TropicalNoneJosephine post-tropical, accelerating NE away. No U.S. coastal watches or warnings. No other named systems threatening U.S. land or Gulf. TS Vance far south of Mexico.
    SevereSlightSPC Day 1 (0100Z Oct 23): Slight from eastern AZ into western NM and Four Corners. Large hail, damaging winds, few tornadoes. Prior Severe Thunderstorm Warnings and Watch in AZ. Marginal elsewhere.
    FloodModerateWPC Day 1 Moderate over SW CO, southern UT, NW NM. Flash Flood Warnings live in AZ. Slight Risk broader Southwest. Terrain, burn scars and canyons primary concern.

    Rising Queries

    Trends unreachable.

    Restoration Read

    Primary restoration drivers are large hail and damaging wind impacts to roofs, vehicles, windows and vegetation across eastern and central Arizona, plus flash-flood damage to roads, low-water crossings, homes in washes and infrastructure in the Four Corners Moderate area. Burn scars and slot canyons remain highly sensitive. No tropical wind or surge component on U.S. land. Water and hail remain the dominant ticket generators for the next 12–24 hours.

    What This Is Not

    This is not a tropical cyclone landfall, a High Risk excessive rainfall event, or an Enhanced or Moderate severe outlook. No hurricane or tropical storm warning is in effect for any U.S. coastline or the Gulf of America. The Moderate flood risk is geographically focused on the Four Corners high terrain rather than a broad river flood. Isolated severe reports are occurring, but coverage remains scattered.

    Looking Ahead One Day

    Friday: The upper low continues northeastward. SPC Day 2 maintains residual severe potential shifting eastward. WPC Day 2 carries the excessive rainfall threat into the southern and central High Plains. Josephine remains post-tropical and moves farther away. California and the Southwest see gradual drying behind the system, though residual runoff continues in saturated basins. No new tropical threat indicated for U.S. land.

    Sources

    Informational only — not an official warning. Always confirm with the latest official forecasts from weather.gov, spc.noaa.gov, wpc.ncep.noaa.gov, and nhc.noaa.gov. Turn around, don’t drown.

  • Storm Updates: Four Corners Flood — Oct 22

    Storm Updates: Four Corners Flood — Oct 22

    As of this Thursday afternoon desk, October 22, 2026 (approximately 9:14 PM PDT / 12:14 AM EDT October 23 / 0414Z October 23), the national picture centers on the Southwest and Four Corners. The Weather Prediction Center maintains a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall over portions of southwest Colorado, southern Utah and northwestern New Mexico. The Storm Prediction Center holds a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms from eastern Arizona into western New Mexico, with scattered severe storms remaining possible across the Southwest and Great Basin into the evening. Post-Tropical Cyclone Josephine continues accelerating northeastward away with no U.S. coastal watches or warnings.

    Tropical: None · Severe: Slight · Flood: Moderate

    What Changed

    • Compared with this morning’s pulse table (quiet-pulse-2026-10-22-morning): SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook (latest 0100 UTC October 23 / 8:01 PM CDT Thursday, October 22, 2026, valid 230100Z–231200Z) continues a SLIGHT RISK of severe thunderstorms from eastern Arizona into western New Mexico. Scattered severe storms remain possible across the Southwest and Great Basin tonight, with the most intense cells expected across western New Mexico through the remainder of this evening. Large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two are possible. No upgrade beyond Slight; category unchanged.
    • WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 0042 UTC Friday October 23 / discussion 8:44 PM EDT Thursday, valid 01Z–12Z October 23) holds a MODERATE RISK over portions of southwest Colorado, southern Utah and northwestern New Mexico. Additional 1–2 inches (locally higher) possible amid training convection and upslope flow; flash flooding likely in terrain, burn scars and slot canyons. Slight Risk surrounds it. Category unchanged from morning.
    • NHC confirms Josephine has become a powerful extratropical low (last advisory). No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning remains in effect on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America. The system is accelerating northeastward away from the United States. Eastern Pacific Tropical Storm Vance continues well south of Mexico with no U.S. land threat.
    • Severe Thunderstorm Warnings and watches have been in effect across portions of Arizona and New Mexico. Tornado Warnings were issued earlier for parts of Apache and Navajo Counties, Arizona, and into New Mexico. Flash Flood Warnings remain active for sensitive areas including Apache County (Canyon de Chelly / Chinle Creek) with considerable damage threat, and other Four Corners drainages. Local storm reports continue to verify large hail and damaging winds.
    • Nothing material closed the severe or flood lanes. Moderate flood risk remains the highest open categorical level on Day 1. Quiet Pulse remains closed. This afternoon desk updates in place under the standard slug and links the morning desk under Sources.

    Live Status

    SPC Day 1 (0100Z October 23) lists a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) from eastern Arizona into western New Mexico. Mid-level southerly flow remains strong on the eastern periphery of the upper trough. Ongoing convection is a mix of supercells and linear clusters shifting into western New Mexico and southern Colorado. Buoyancy around 1000 J/kg supports robust storms into the evening, with favorable deep-layer shear (50–60 kt) for hail and severe gusts. A tornado or two remains possible, particularly from northwestern New Mexico northward toward southern Colorado where low-level flow is backed and terrain influences hodograph curvature. Farther north into the Great Basin, isolated strong to severe storms remain possible under more limited buoyancy, with damaging gusts the primary hazard. Marginal Risk covers broader portions of the region.

    WPC Day 1 maintains the Moderate Risk (Level 3 of 4) over southwest Colorado (San Juan Mountains), southern Utah and northwestern New Mexico. Anomalous moisture, diffluent flow, and training convection continue to support flash flooding. The San Juans see the heaviest accumulations, with model consensus for 3–4 inches and localized higher. Broader Slight Risk covers additional Southwest and Four Corners areas. Marginal Risk remains for parts of the interior Northwest and southeast Florida.

    Hotspots

    Four Corners (southwest Colorado, southern Utah, northwest New Mexico): Moderate excessive rainfall risk. Heavy rain cores on the San Juans and surrounding high terrain, plus southern Utah canyons and burn scars. Flash Flood Warnings already verified in parts of Arizona that feed into the region. Life-threatening flooding possible in slot canyons, dry washes and urban areas. Evacuation orders noted earlier in some southern Utah locations.

    Eastern Arizona into western New Mexico: Slight severe risk with active convection. Supercells and clusters producing large hail and damaging winds; tornado potential elevated where low-level shear and terrain align. Phoenix metro and Mogollon Rim remain influenced. Flash flooding accompanies the convection. Verifying reports of hail and wind continue.

    Residual California and Great Basin: Isolated severe hail/wind and brief tornado potential under limited instability ahead of the upper low. Marginal excessive rainfall risk in places; main threat is terrain-driven runoff rather than widespread flooding.

    Just-Hit

    National Weather Service offices have issued multiple Severe Thunderstorm Warnings across Arizona (Flagstaff and Phoenix CWAs) for 60 mph winds and quarter-size hail. Tornado Warnings were issued this afternoon for portions of Apache and Navajo Counties, Arizona, and parts of New Mexico. Flash Flood Warnings remain active for Apache County (Canyon de Chelly / Chinle Creek) with considerable damage threat noted. Local storm reports continue to verify hail and wind within the Slight Risk area. Rapid runoff is occurring in sensitive basins including the Paria River and Oak Creek corridors. No confirmed tornado damage reports received so far today. No widespread major river flooding reported.

    Pulse Table

    LaneStatusNotes (as of ~9:14 PM PDT / 0414Z 23 Oct 2026)
    TropicalNoneJosephine post-tropical, accelerating NE away. No U.S. coastal watches or warnings. TS Vance far south of Mexico. No other named systems threatening U.S. land or Gulf.
    SevereSlightSPC Day 1 (0100Z Oct 23): Slight from eastern AZ into western NM and Four Corners. Large hail, damaging winds, tornado or two possible. Prior warnings and watches in AZ/NM. LSRs verifying hail/wind. Marginal elsewhere.
    FloodModerateWPC Day 1 Moderate over SW CO, southern UT, NW NM. Flash Flood Warnings live in AZ and NM. Slight Risk broader Southwest. Terrain, burn scars and canyons primary concern.

    Rising Queries

    Trends unreachable.

    Restoration Read

    Primary restoration drivers are large hail and damaging wind impacts to roofs, vehicles, windows and vegetation across eastern and central Arizona, plus flash-flood damage to roads, low-water crossings, homes in washes and infrastructure in the Four Corners Moderate area. Burn scars and slot canyons remain highly sensitive. Isolated tornado potential adds tree and structure damage risk where rotation was indicated. No tropical wind or surge component on U.S. land. Water and hail remain the dominant ticket generators for the next 12–24 hours.

    What This Is Not

    This is not a tropical cyclone landfall, a High Risk excessive rainfall event, or an Enhanced or Moderate severe outlook. No hurricane or tropical storm warning is in effect for any U.S. coastline or the Gulf of America. The Moderate flood risk is geographically focused on the Four Corners high terrain rather than a broad river flood. Isolated to scattered severe reports are occurring, but coverage remains limited.

    Looking Ahead One Day

    Friday: The upper low continues northeastward. SPC Day 2 maintains residual severe potential shifting eastward. WPC Day 2 carries the excessive rainfall threat into the southern and central High Plains. Josephine remains post-tropical and moves farther away. California and the Southwest see gradual drying behind the system, though residual runoff continues in saturated basins. No new tropical threat indicated for U.S. land.

    Sources

    Informational only — not an official warning. Always confirm with the latest official forecasts from weather.gov, spc.noaa.gov, wpc.ncep.noaa.gov, and nhc.noaa.gov. Turn around, don’t drown.

  • Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Oct 23 Morning

    Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Oct 23 Morning

    Tropical: None · Severe: Marginal · Flood: Slight

    What Changed

    • Compared with the October 23 afternoon desk pulse table (Tropical: None · Severe: Marginal · Flood: Slight): the latest SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook (0100 UTC October 24 / 8:02 PM CDT Friday, October 23, 2026, valid 240100Z–241200Z) holds a MARGINAL RISK of severe thunderstorms over portions of New Mexico, southern Colorado and far west Texas. Isolated large hail, severe gusts and perhaps a tornado remain possible this evening; threat becoming more isolated with nocturnal cooling.
    • Severe Thunderstorm Watch 696 has expired. SPC reports no watches currently valid. The most recent was #696 for central and western New Mexico and far west Texas, which covered until 9:00 PM MDT. Primary threats were scattered large hail (isolated to 3 inches) and scattered damaging winds to 70 mph.
    • WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook continues a SLIGHT RISK for portions of New Mexico, far west Texas and southern Colorado (updated ~0806 UTC October 23, valid 12Z Oct 23–12Z Oct 24). Broader Marginal Risk surrounds it. No Moderate or above. Residual sensitivity from earlier rainfall in terrain and burn scars.
    • NHC: No tropical cyclones in the Atlantic. Hurricane Vance remains well south of Mexico in the Eastern Pacific, not threatening U.S. land. No tropical storm or hurricane watches or warnings on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America.
    • Severe lane holds at Marginal after the daytime Slight. Flood lane unchanged at Slight. Watch 696 closed. Quiet Pulse remains open. Dominant residual restoration ticket is New Mexico and far west Texas hail and wind.

    Live Status

    As of this Friday evening update to the October 23 morning desk (approximately 9:15 PM PDT / 12:15 AM EDT / 0415Z October 24, with products valid through the Day 1 period ending 12Z Saturday), the national picture is a Quiet Pulse. The latest SPC Day 1 lists a Marginal Risk covering roughly 82,000 square miles and about 2.4 million people, including El Paso TX, Albuquerque NM, Las Cruces NM, Santa Fe NM and Rio Rancho NM. Isolated severe thunderstorms with large hail, severe gusts, and perhaps a tornado remain possible this evening. The environment is becoming less conducive with nocturnal cooling and decreasing buoyancy; the severe threat becomes increasingly more isolated and focused tonight.

    WPC Day 1 places a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over portions of New Mexico, far west Texas and southern Colorado. Soils in southwestern Colorado and northwestern New Mexico remain somewhat sensitive from prior heavy rainfall. Locally heavy rates of 1–1.5 inches per hour possible in intense cells, with highest totals favored in northern New Mexico where terrain focuses convection. Isolated to widely scattered flash flooding possible on steep terrain, burn scars and urban areas. Broader Marginal Risk covers much of New Mexico and southern Colorado.

    The tropical lane is closed for U.S. land impact. No named systems threaten the coast or Gulf. Hurricane Vance remains far south in the Eastern Pacific, not affecting the United States. No U.S. watches or warnings are in effect. SPC confirms no convective watches currently valid.

    Hotspots

    Central and western New Mexico and far west Texas: Residual Marginal severe threat this evening after Watch 696 expiration. Earlier supercells and clusters capable of large to very large hail and damaging winds to 70 mph. Albuquerque, Santa Fe, Las Cruces and El Paso metros were included. Isolated tornado possible but low probability. Threat diminishing overnight.

    Northern New Mexico and southern Colorado: Slight excessive rainfall risk overlapping residual severe potential. Terrain-driven heavy rain rates possible; residual sensitivity from prior rainfall. Flash flood potential highest in mountains, burn scars and urban corridors near Albuquerque.

    Pulse Table

    LaneStatusNotes (as of ~9:15 PM PDT / 0415Z Oct 24 2026)
    TropicalNoneNo tropical cyclones in Atlantic. Hurricane Vance (EPAC) far south of Mexico, not threatening U.S. land. No U.S. coastal watches or warnings.
    SevereMarginalSPC Day 1 (0100Z Oct 24): Marginal for NM, southern CO and far west TX. Isolated large hail, severe gusts, perhaps tornado this evening. Watch 696 expired. No watches currently valid.
    FloodSlightWPC Day 1 Slight for portions of NM, far west TX and southern CO. Marginal broader. Residual sensitivity from earlier rainfall. No Moderate or higher.

    Rising Queries

    Trends unreachable

    Restoration Read

    Dominant residual ticket is New Mexico and far west Texas severe under the now-expired Severe Thunderstorm Watch 696: large hail and damaging wind impacts to roofs, vehicles, windows and vegetation. Residual flash-flood sensitivity remains in northern New Mexico and southern Colorado terrain and burn scars. No tropical component. Monitor official sources for any lingering Severe Thunderstorm Warnings and Flash Flood Warnings.

    What This Is Not

    This is not an official forecast or warning. It is a desk summary of public products from the SPC, WPC, NWS and NHC. A Marginal severe risk covers portions of New Mexico and far west Texas this evening. Slight excessive rainfall risk covers portions of the same region. No U.S. tropical watches or warnings are active. Watch 696 has expired. Quiet Pulse is open.

    Looking Ahead

    Saturday: SPC Day 2 maintains a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms across New Mexico and far west Texas. WPC continues excessive rainfall potential as the trough progresses. The severe threat diminishes overnight tonight after the peak this afternoon/evening. No new tropical threat indicated for U.S. land. Residual runoff continues in sensitive basins.

    Sources

    Informational only — not an official warning. Always confirm with the latest official forecasts from weather.gov, spc.noaa.gov, wpc.ncep.noaa.gov, and nhc.noaa.gov. Turn around, don’t drown.

  • Storm Updates: Arizona Slight — Oct 21

    Storm Updates: Arizona Slight — Oct 21

    Tropical: None · Severe: Slight · Flood: Slight

    What Changed

    • Compared with this morning’s pulse table (which carried an Enhanced risk over central Arizona): the latest SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook (0100 UTC October 22 / 6:00 PM PDT October 21, 2026, valid 220100Z–221200Z, issued 0800 PM CDT) holds a SLIGHT RISK of severe thunderstorms for much of Arizona into far southeast Nevada and southwest Utah. Large hail remains the primary threat, with a couple of tornadoes and damaging winds possible overnight. The categorical risk stepped down from the earlier Enhanced area focused on Flagstaff–Prescott–Sedona.
    • Severe Thunderstorm Watches have been active across northern and central Arizona; earlier Tornado Watch 688 transitioned. Local storm reports through the day and evening include hail of 1–2.5 inches (golf ball to larger) near Flagstaff, Prescott, Deer Valley, Mesa, Safford, and Maricopa, plus measured gusts to 60+ mph. Flash Flood Warnings continue on higher terrain, burn scars, and dry washes in Arizona and southern Utah.
    • WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated ~0015 UTC October 22, valid 01Z–12Z October 22) maintains a SLIGHT RISK over the Southwest and Four Corners, including Southern California ranges and much of Arizona. No upgrade to Moderate. A Marginal risk persists near the lower Texas coast.
    • Subtropical Storm Josephine (Advisory 1 at 5 PM AST, subsequent updates) is centered near 37.4N 69.5W with 65 mph winds, moving north then accelerating northeast away from the United States. No tropical storm or hurricane watches or warnings are in effect on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America. Tropical Storm Vance remains far south of Mexico in the Eastern Pacific.
    • The morning desk is linked under Sources. Arizona severe and Southwest flood lanes remain open as the restoration drivers. Quiet Pulse is closed.

    Live Status

    As of this Wednesday afternoon desk, October 21, 2026 (approximately 9:14 PM PDT / 12:14 AM EDT October 22 / 0414Z October 22), the SPC lists a Slight risk (Level 2 of 5) across much of Arizona, including the Phoenix metro (Phoenix, Mesa, Glendale, Chandler, Scottsdale), extending into far southeast Nevada and southwest Utah through the overnight. Marginal risk covers coastal central and southern California. Supercells are favored with elongated hodographs and 55–65 kt effective shear; large hail is the primary threat, with severe gusts and a couple of tornadoes possible where low-level curvature increases near the Mogollon Rim and local terrain.

    The flood lane stays Slight. WPC continues the Slight risk of excessive rainfall over the Southwest and Four Corners, driven by a deep cyclone near the California coast scooping anomalous tropical moisture (IVT values of 300–700 kg/ms, PWAT 0.75–1.5 inches). Hourly rainfall amounts to 2–2.5 inches remain possible with training or backbuilding over terrain, burn scars, urban areas, slot canyons, and dry washes. Day 2 outlooks maintain Slight risk over portions of southeast Arizona.

    The tropical lane is closed for U.S. land impact. Subtropical Storm Josephine is a few hundred miles offshore the Mid-Atlantic, forecast to move northeastward away from the United States with no coastal watches or warnings. Residual coastal flood and high-surf products from the offshore system continue along parts of the East Coast but do not meet Moderate or higher excessive rainfall thresholds. See the Josephine 2026 storm hub.

    Hotspots

    Central and northern Arizona (Mogollon Rim to Flagstaff–Prescott): Primary overnight severe threat. Ongoing and additional supercells capable of large hail (up to 2+ inches), damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes. Multiple warnings and reports have already verified across Yavapai, Coconino, and Navajo counties.

    Phoenix metro and southern Arizona: Included in the Slight risk envelope. Multiple rounds of storms have produced hail and wind damage; continued supercell potential overnight as the axis shifts eastward.

    Southern California coastal ranges and Transverse Ranges: Marginal severe (isolated gusts, low-end tornado potential) plus Slight flood risk as the Pacific cyclone approaches. Terrain-enhanced rainfall and burn-scar runoff are the primary concerns.

    Just-Hit

    Local storm reports and media accounts through the day and early evening document hail of 1–2.5 inches (golf-ball size and larger) near Flagstaff, Prescott, Deer Valley, Mesa, Safford, and Maricopa County, with reports of shattered windows, dented vehicles, and downed trees (including ponderosa pines in the Coconino National Forest). Tornado warnings were issued for parts of Coconino and Yavapai Counties. Flash Flood Warnings remain active over parts of southern Utah, Arizona burn scars, and higher terrain. No widespread major river flooding is reported, but the setup supports rapid runoff overnight.

    Pulse Table

    LaneStatusNotes (as of ~9:14 PM PDT / 0414Z 22 Oct 2026)
    TropicalNoneSubtropical Storm Josephine ~37.4N 69.5W, 65 mph, accelerating NE away from the U.S. No coastal watches or warnings. TS Vance far south of Mexico.
    SevereSlightSPC Day 1 (0100Z Oct 22): Slight over much of AZ into SE NV/SW UT for large hail, couple tornadoes, damaging winds. Marginal coastal CA. Active warnings and verifying LSRs.
    FloodSlightWPC Day 1 Slight over Southwest/Four Corners including SoCal ranges and AZ. Hourly 2–2.5″ possible. Burn scars, urban areas, canyons primary concern.

    Rising Queries

    • Arizona tornado watch
    • Phoenix hail storm October 21
    • Flagstaff severe weather
    • Mogollon Rim storms
    • Southern California flash flood

    Restoration Read

    Dominant ticket is Arizona severe (Slight overnight after daytime Enhanced verification with large hail and wind damage) plus Southwest Slight flood risk. Phoenix metro and central Arizona face continued supercell potential tonight. Southern California sees the moisture plume and terrain-enhanced rain. Monitor official sources for active warnings. This morning’s desk is linked under Sources.

    What This Is Not

    This is not an official forecast or warning. It is a desk summary of public products from the SPC, WPC, NWS, and NHC. No Moderate or higher flood risk is in effect on Day 1, no U.S. tropical watches or warnings are active, and the severe categorical risk has stepped down from Enhanced to Slight for the overnight period.

    Looking Ahead

    Thursday: SPC Day 2 carries a Slight risk over portions of southeast Arizona. WPC Day 2 continues Slight excessive rainfall potential over the Southwest. Josephine becomes post-tropical and accelerates farther northeast. The Pacific cyclone continues to influence California and the Southwest through Thursday, with the primary severe axis shifting eastward into Arizona and southwest New Mexico overnight into early Thursday.

    Sources

    Informational only — not an official warning. Always confirm with the latest official forecasts from weather.gov, spc.noaa.gov, wpc.ncep.noaa.gov, and nhc.noaa.gov. Turn around, don’t drown.

  • Storm Updates: Arizona Slight — Oct 21 Morning

    Storm Updates: Arizona Slight — Oct 21 Morning

    Tropical: None · Severe: Slight · Flood: Slight

    What Changed

    • Compared with the October 21 afternoon desk (quiet-pulse-2026-10-21-afternoon): SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook (0100 UTC October 22 / 6:00 PM PDT October 21, 2026, valid 220100Z–221200Z) holds a SLIGHT RISK of severe thunderstorms for much of Arizona into far southeast Nevada and southwest Utah. Earlier Enhanced risk over central Arizona has closed with the end of peak diurnal heating; supercells remain possible overnight.
    • Severe Thunderstorm Watches 689 and 690 remain active over central and southern Arizona. Multiple Severe Thunderstorm Warnings and Tornado Warnings verified earlier; LSRs include large hail (up to golf-ball size) and damaging winds in Yavapai, Coconino, and Maricopa Counties.
    • WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 0015 UTC October 22, valid 01Z–12Z October 22) maintains a SLIGHT RISK over portions of southern California and the Southwest U.S. (including much of Arizona, southern Utah, southwest Colorado, western New Mexico). No upgrade to Moderate. Heavy rainfall rates continue with the moist plume and upper low.
    • NHC continues advisories on Subtropical Storm Josephine (Advisory ~2: ~37.7°N 69.4°W, 65 mph, moving NNE at 6 mph, expected to accelerate northeast away from the U.S. and become extratropical with hurricane-force winds). No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America. Eastern Pacific Tropical Storm Vance remains well south of Mexico with no U.S. threat. Storm hub: Josephine 2026.
    • Both severe and flood lanes remain open at Slight. Restoration focus stays on Arizona hail/wind/isolated tornado damage plus Southwest flash-flood potential from ongoing convection. Quiet Pulse remains closed.

    Live Status

    As of this Wednesday evening update to the morning desk, October 21, 2026 (approximately 9:12 PM PDT / 12:12 AM EDT October 22 / 0412Z October 22), the national picture centers on the Southwest. SPC Day 1 lists a Slight risk (Level 2 of 5) of severe thunderstorms across much of Arizona (including the Phoenix metro: Phoenix, Mesa, Glendale, Chandler, Scottsdale) into far southeast Nevada and southwest Utah for tonight. Marginal risk covers coastal central and southern California. Supercells are favored with elongated hodographs and 55–65 kt effective shear; large hail is the primary threat (locally 2+ inches possible), with a couple of tornadoes and damaging winds also possible given residual low-level shear and terrain influences. MUCAPE remains 1000–1500 J/kg under the advancing cold core of the deep upper low off the California coast. Additional development is expected across south-central Arizona overnight as shortwave energy approaches from Mexico.

    Severe Thunderstorm Watch 689 covers central and southern Arizona until roughly 9:00 PM MST, with primary threats of scattered large hail (isolated very large), damaging winds to 70 mph, and a tornado or two. Watch 690 extends coverage further. Radar and local storm reports earlier today verified hail to 1.5 inches and 60 mph gusts near Prescott, Hawkins, Iron Springs, and other locations in Yavapai and Coconino Counties. Tornado warnings were issued in northern Arizona (first tornado watch products for the state in roughly 16 years). Convection is shifting eastward across Arizona into southwest New Mexico into early Thursday.

    WPC Day 1 carries a Slight risk of excessive rainfall over southern California (focused on the Transverse Ranges, burn scars, and urban corridors north and northeast of Los Angeles) and the broader Southwest/Four Corners, including much of Arizona, southern Utah, and adjacent areas. Persistent southerly flow is advecting anomalous moisture; HREF probabilities for additional >1 inch rainfall remain high (>70%) through 12Z. Hourly rates of 0.5–1+ inches are possible, with higher amounts in terrain. Flash Flood Warnings have been issued in parts of Coconino County and southern Utah (including near Zion and Bryce areas). Residual Flood Watches cover higher terrain and burn scars. No Moderate or higher ERO is in effect on Day 1.

    Tropical lane remains closed for the United States. Subtropical Storm Josephine is accelerating northeast away from the East Coast with no coastal watches or warnings. Residual high surf and coastal flood products may continue along portions of the East Coast from the parent system, but these do not open a tropical lane for this desk. Winter Storm Warnings remain active in parts of Alaska; these are outside the primary severe/flood focus.

    Just-Hit

    Preliminary local storm reports and media accounts document golf-ball-sized hail, shattered windows, dented vehicles, and downed trees across northern and central Arizona, including Flagstaff and Mesa areas. Strong winds toppled trees in the Coconino National Forest. Multiple tornado warnings and the first tornado watch for northern Arizona since 2010 verified earlier in the day. Flash Flood Warnings are active or recent over parts of Coconino County, southern Utah (including Zion National Park vicinity with reported muddy flows), and higher terrain/burn scars. No widespread major flooding has been reported as of this update, but the setup supports rapid runoff and urban/terrain flash flooding overnight. Primary ongoing restoration ticket is hail and wind damage to roofs, vehicles, and vegetation in the Phoenix metro and high country, with secondary flash-flood concerns in sensitive terrain.

    Pulse Table

    LaneStatusNotes (as of ~9:12 PM PDT / 0412Z 22 Oct 2026)
    TropicalNoneSubtropical Storm Josephine ~37.7N 69.4W, 65 mph, moving NNE away. No U.S. watches/warnings. TS Vance far south of Mexico. Hub live.
    SevereSlightSPC Day 1 (0100Z Oct 22): Slight over much of AZ into far SE NV/SW UT for large hail (primary), couple tornadoes, damaging winds. Marginal coastal CA. SVR TSTM Watches 689 & 690 active. LSRs of large hail and wind verified.
    FloodSlightWPC Day 1: Slight over southern CA and Southwest (AZ, S UT, SW CO, W NM). High probs for additional heavy rain. FFWs recent in Coconino AZ and S UT. No Moderate+.

    Rising Queries

    Trends unreachable.

    What This Means

    The restoration ticket is driven by the Arizona Slight risk severe weather, with supporting flash-flood potential across the Southwest. Organized supercells continue into the evening and overnight with primary hazards of large hail and damaging winds, plus a couple of tornadoes possible. Phoenix metro and central Arizona remain in the threat area under active watches. Southern California sees a marginal severe threat from the approaching Pacific cyclone plus a Slight excessive rainfall risk focused on coastal ranges and urban areas. Named storm hub for Josephine is live even though no U.S. coastal threat. Monitor official sources for the latest warnings and local impacts.

    Informational only — not an official warning. Always confirm with the latest official forecasts from weather.gov, spc.noaa.gov, wpc.ncep.noaa.gov, and nhc.noaa.gov. Turn around, don’t drown.

  • Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Oct 20

    Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Oct 20

    Tropical: None · Severe: Quiet · Flood: Quiet

    As of this Tuesday afternoon desk, October 20, 2026 (approximately 8:14 PM PDT / 11:14 PM EDT / 0314Z October 21), the national picture holds as a Quiet Pulse. SPC Day 1 continues with no severe thunderstorm areas forecast through tonight. WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook shows the probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance less than 5 percent. No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning is in effect on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America.

    What Changed

    • Compared with this morning’s quiet-pulse-2026-10-20-morning pulse table: SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook (latest 0100 UTC / 7:51 PM CDT Tuesday, October 20, 2026, valid 210100Z–211200Z) continues NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST. No categorical severe risk remains open. No convective watches or Mesoscale Discussions are currently in effect.
    • WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated ~0028 UTC Wednesday October 21 / ~8:28 PM EDT Tuesday, valid 01Z–12Z Oct 21) confirms the probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less than 5 percent. The prior Marginal Risk over the Southwest has fully closed for Day 1. No Moderate or higher.
    • No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America. NHC reports no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Eastern Pacific, or Central Pacific. AL93 remains a storm-force non-tropical low a few hundred miles off the mid-Atlantic/North Carolina coast with a medium (40%) chance of briefly acquiring subtropical characteristics over the next couple of days as it moves north-northeast over the Gulf Stream. High winds, coastal flooding, and dangerous surf continue along portions of the East Coast.
    • Looking ahead (not Day 1): SPC Day 2 maintains an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms across portions of Arizona for Wednesday, with large hail and tornado potential. WPC Day 2 carries a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over the Southwest and Four Corners. Flood Watches are in effect for much of central and eastern Arizona, plus portions of New Mexico, Colorado, and California starting Wednesday. This remains outside the current Day 1 window.
    • Nothing material has moved to open a Slight or higher severe lane or Moderate or higher flood lane for today. Quiet Pulse holds on Day 1.

    Live Status

    SPC Day 1 (0100Z October 21) lists no severe thunderstorm areas. Isolated thunderstorms remain possible this evening into tonight across parts of the Desert Southwest and Intermountain West under modest instability, and overnight along a low-level moisture axis over the southern and central Great Plains, but no severe threat is forecast. No watches are valid.

    The flood lane is Quiet on Day 1. Residual river Flood Warnings continue in Florida (St. Johns River near Astor, moderate stage) and Georgia (Satilla River at Atkinson). Coastal and marine products, including Gale Warnings and Storm Warnings offshore the mid-Atlantic, persist with the non-tropical low. Flood Watches for Wednesday cover portions of the Southwest and California ahead of the next system. Winter Storm Warnings remain active in interior Alaska.

    Hotspots

    • Southwest / Arizona corridor (looking ahead): Flood Watches already issued for central and eastern Arizona, southwest Colorado, and western New Mexico starting Wednesday afternoon. SPC Day 2 Enhanced Risk targets portions of Arizona for large hail and isolated tornadoes. WPC Day 2 Slight Risk of excessive rainfall covers the Southwest and Four Corners.
    • East Coast coastal / marine: Storm-force non-tropical low (AL93) offshore the mid-Atlantic continues to drive high winds, coastal flooding, and dangerous surf. Gale Warnings and Storm Warnings are in effect for offshore waters. No tropical development is imminent for U.S. land.
    • Residual river and Alaska winter: Ongoing Flood Warnings on the St. Johns (FL) and Satilla (GA). Winter Storm Warnings remain active across portions of interior Alaska (Eastern Alaska Range, Fortymile Country, Yukon Flats) with heavy snow totals of 5–36 inches depending on elevation.

    Just-Hit

    No significant local storm reports of severe weather (hail ≥1 inch, damaging wind, tornado) or widespread flash flooding on Day 1. Prior Marginal activity over southeast Arizona and southwest New Mexico has ended with loss of heating. Residual river stages and coastal products only.

    Pulse Table

    LaneStatusNotes (as of ~8:14 PM PDT / 11:14 PM EDT / 0314Z 21 Oct 2026)
    TropicalNoneNo named systems threatening U.S. land or Gulf. NHC: no tropical cyclones Atlantic/EPAC/CPAC. AL93 non-tropical low off mid-Atlantic (40% subtropical chance next few days). No U.S. tropical watches/warnings.
    SevereQuietSPC Day 1 (0100Z Oct 21): NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST. No watches or MDs valid. Isolated thunder possible Southwest and Plains overnight, no severe threat.
    FloodQuietWPC Day 1 probability <5%. Residual river Flood Warnings (St. Johns near Astor FL, Satilla Atkinson GA). Flood Watches issued for Southwest/CA starting Wednesday. Day 2 Slight Risk Southwest.

    Rising Queries

    “Flood watch” is rising in U.S. Trends, driven by the Arizona and Southwest Flood Watches issued ahead of Wednesday’s system. Related searches include Arizona weather, severe storms Arizona, and Phoenix flood watch. Broader weather forecast queries remain elevated with the approaching Day 2 risk.

    Restoration Read

    Quiet Pulse for today. No open Slight or higher severe or Moderate or higher flood lanes on Day 1. Residual river flooding in Florida and Georgia is the primary ongoing water concern. Coastal flooding and high surf along the East Coast will continue with the offshore low. Wednesday brings the first above-Quiet window over Arizona and the Southwest—monitor Flood Watches and the Day 2 Enhanced Risk closely. Turn around, don’t drown on any residual flooded roads.

    What This Is Not

    This is a Quiet Pulse. No SPC Slight or higher severe risk, no WPC Moderate or higher excessive rainfall on Day 1, and no tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf. The Enhanced severe and Slight flood risks for Wednesday remain outside the current Day 1 window.

    Looking Ahead One Day

    Wednesday holds an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms across portions of Arizona (large hail, isolated tornado potential) on the SPC Day 2 outlook. WPC Day 2 carries a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over the Southwest and Four Corners. Flood Watches are already in effect for much of central and eastern Arizona and adjacent areas starting Wednesday. The East Coast offshore low continues to influence winds, surf, and coastal flooding as it moves northeast. No named tropical threat to the U.S. coast is indicated.

    Sources

    Informational only — not an official weather warning. Always consult official NWS, SPC, WPC, and NHC products for decisions.

  • Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Oct 20 Morning

    Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Oct 20 Morning

    Tropical: None · Severe: Quiet · Flood: Quiet

    What Changed

    • Compared with the October 19 afternoon desk (quiet-pulse-2026-10-19-afternoon): SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook (latest 0100 UTC / 7:51 PM CDT Tuesday, October 20, 2026, valid 210100Z–211200Z) continues NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST. The prior Marginal Risk over southeast Arizona and southwest New Mexico has fully closed. Isolated thunderstorms remain possible this evening into tonight across parts of the Desert Southwest and Intermountain West, and overnight along a low-level moisture axis over the southern and central Great Plains, but no categorical severe risk and no watches.
    • WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 0028 UTC Wednesday October 21 / ~8:28 PM EDT Tuesday, valid 01Z–12Z Oct 21) confirms the probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less than 5 percent. The prior Marginal Risk over the Southwest has ended for Day 1. No Moderate or higher.
    • No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America. NHC reports no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Eastern Pacific, or Central Pacific as of the 800 PM EDT Tropical Weather Outlook. AL93 (non-tropical low off the mid-Atlantic coast) continues with a medium (40%) chance of subtropical development, but remains offshore with no U.S. watches or warnings. Nothing material moved on the tropical lane.
    • Looking ahead (not Day 1): SPC Day 2 holds an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms across portions of Arizona for Wednesday, with large hail, damaging winds, and tornado potential. WPC Day 2 has a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over the Southwest and Four Corners. Flood Watches are already in effect for much of central and eastern Arizona starting Wednesday. This remains outside the current Day 1 window.
    • Nothing material has moved to open a Slight or higher severe lane or Moderate or higher flood lane for today. The national picture remains Quiet Pulse for the morning desk.

    Live Status

    As of this Tuesday morning desk update, October 20, 2026 (approximately 9:12 PM PDT / 12:12 AM EDT October 21 / 0412Z October 21), the national picture is a Quiet Pulse. SPC Day 1 holds no severe thunderstorm areas through tonight. Isolated thunderstorms may continue this evening into tonight across parts of the Desert Southwest and Intermountain West under modest instability, but any severe risk is expected to remain limited and isolated. No convective watches are in effect.

    The flood lane is Quiet on Day 1. WPC shows less than 5 percent probability of excessive rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance. Residual river Flood Warnings continue in Florida and Georgia (including moderate stage on the St. Johns near Astor), and winter storm products remain active in Alaska, but these do not meet Moderate or higher excessive rainfall criteria. Coastal and marine products persist along portions of the East Coast in association with the offshore non-tropical low, but these are not inland flash-flood events.

    No named tropical cyclone threatens or has just hit U.S. land. The Atlantic, Eastern Pacific, and Central Pacific basins have no tropical cyclones. No U.S. tropical watches or warnings.

    Hotspots

    Desert Southwest / Intermountain West: Isolated thunderstorms possible this evening into tonight. Transient organization possible earlier, but overall severe threat remains limited. No categorical risk or watches. The higher-end threat arrives Wednesday.

    Looking ahead — Arizona and Southwest: SPC Day 2 Enhanced Risk for severe thunderstorms Wednesday across portions of Arizona, including large hail and tornado potential, especially higher terrain and interior areas. WPC Day 2 Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over the Southwest and Four Corners. Flood Watches already issued for much of central and eastern Arizona starting Wednesday morning through Thursday evening. This is the dominant upcoming peril.

    Alaska: Multiple Winter Storm Warnings continue for heavy snow, with significant accumulations at higher elevations and travel impacts possible. Outside CONUS focus.

    Just-Hit

    Overnight and early Tuesday activity was limited. Prior Marginal Risk reports from Monday evening (isolated 1.25-inch hail and wind damage in SE AZ/SW NM) have closed with the risk area. No widespread severe or flash-flood reports noted for the current Day 1 period.

    Pulse Table

    LaneStatusNotes (as of ~9:12 PM PDT / 12:12 AM EDT / 0412Z 21 Oct 2026)
    TropicalNoneNo named systems threatening U.S. land or Gulf. No tropical cyclones in Atlantic, East Pac, or Central Pac. AL93 offshore non-tropical low (40% subtropical chance). No U.S. tropical watches/warnings.
    SevereQuietSPC Day 1: No Severe Thunderstorm Areas. Isolated storms possible Desert Southwest but limited threat. No watches. Day 2 Enhanced Risk AZ for Wednesday.
    FloodQuietWPC Day 1: probability <5%. Residual river Flood Warnings FL/GA. Day 2 Slight Risk Southwest. Flood Watches already out for AZ starting Wednesday.

    Rising Queries

    “Flood watch” is rising in U.S. Trends, driven by the Arizona Flood Watches issued ahead of Wednesday’s system. Related searches include Arizona weather, severe storms Arizona, and Phoenix flood watch. Trends for the broader severe risk are building but not yet dominant nationally.

    Restoration Read

    Quiet Pulse for today. No open Slight or higher severe or Moderate or higher flood lanes on Day 1. The isolated activity possible in the Southwest this evening is expected to remain limited. Standard quiet-day posture applies. Looking ahead one day, the Enhanced severe risk and Slight excessive rainfall risk over Arizona on Wednesday, combined with already-issued Flood Watches, represent the first material increase in restoration potential this week. Monitor local NWS offices (Phoenix, Flagstaff) and SPC/WPC updates. No widespread event is underway today.

    What This Is Not

    This is a Quiet Pulse. No SPC Slight or higher severe risk on Day 1, no WPC Moderate or higher excessive rainfall on Day 1, and no tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf.

    Looking Ahead One Day

    Wednesday brings an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms across portions of Arizona, with large hail, damaging winds, and tornado potential, especially over higher terrain and interior areas. WPC Day 2 Slight Risk of excessive rainfall covers the Southwest and Four Corners. Flood Watches are already in effect for much of central and eastern Arizona. This is the dominant near-term concern. No tropical development expected for the U.S. coast or Gulf.

    Sources

    • Previous desk: quiet-pulse-2026-10-19-afternoon
    • SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
    • SPC Day 2 Convective Outlook: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html
    • WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/ero.php
    • WPC Day 2 Excessive Rainfall Outlook: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/ero.php?day=2
    • NHC: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
    • NWS watches/warnings: https://www.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=usa&wwa=all

    Informational only — not an official warning. This desk is compiled from official NWS, SPC, WPC, and NHC products for situational awareness only. Always verify the latest local forecasts and warnings at weather.gov before making decisions. Turn around, don’t drown.