This is a live Wednesday morning snapshot of local storm-type events across the United States as of the morning of Wednesday, September 23, 2026. Overnight into this morning, the flood desk ran ahead of the severe desk: National Weather Service flash-flood warnings for El Paso County, Texas; Amelia, Cumberland, and Powhatan counties in central Virginia; and a receding western North Carolina pulse around Lake Lure / Bat Cave / Chimney Rock. Those overnight warnings are treated as expired or expiring into this morning. Today’s desks: Storm Prediction Center Marginal Risk for parts of the western Dakotas and the southern Appalachians; Weather Prediction Center Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall across portions of central and eastern New Mexico. No convective watches are currently valid.
These are county- and ZIP-scale thunderstorms and flood pulses, not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. There is no named tropical cyclone threatening U.S. land in the current National Hurricane Center picture. Restoration exposure today into tonight is water first in New Mexico and far west Texas, leftover street and creek flooding in central Virginia and the southern Appalachians, and isolated damaging gusts this afternoon if the two Marginal corridors heat. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.
What is live this morning
SPC’s 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook (issued 7:26 a.m. CDT Wednesday, September 23, 2026; Smith/Mead; valid 231300Z–241200Z) places a Marginal Risk over parts of the western Dakotas and the southern Appalachians. Summary: isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon across those two corridors. Western Dakotas: mid-level trough moving out of Wyoming/Montana, lee trough, moisture plume off the High Plains, around 1,000 J/kg MLCAPE, isolated marginally severe hail or gusts through early evening. Southern Appalachians: mid-level vorticity maximum sliding southeast from the lower Ohio Valley; dewpoints in the 60s °F; 250–750 J/kg MLCAPE if heating wins against low cloud; strong to locally damaging gusts with the stronger cells. Hail probabilities were removed after the 12 UTC Nashville sounding showed poor 700–500 mb lapse rates (4.8 °C/km).
No convective watches were currently valid as of the SPC watches page update at 09:44:06 UTC Wednesday, September 23, 2026. Most recent watch on the board: 0674. Check spc.noaa.gov/products/watch before you stage.
WPC’s Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 0832 UTC Wednesday, September 23, 2026; Chenard; valid 12Z Wed–12Z Thu) holds a Moderate Risk across portions of central and eastern New Mexico. Scattered to numerous flash floods are expected; locally significant and life-threatening impacts remain possible on sensitive terrain, urban drainage, and burn scars. A widespread 1–2 inches is generally expected, with localized 2–4 inch swaths likely on top of rain that already fell before 12Z. The Slight risk extends into southeast Arizona and a slice of far west Texas if storms propagate east. Separate flood desks: Slight over portions of eastern Kentucky, eastern Tennessee, and far western North Carolina; Marginal from Ohio into West Virginia and western Virginia/North Carolina; Marginal over south Florida.
Hotspot 1 — Central and eastern New Mexico / far west Texas
Today’s Moderate flood desk and the national headline. A well-defined mid-level shortwave lifts north-northeast across New Mexico with robust upper divergence and the chance of a weak surface low. Cloud cover is the limiter; daytime heating on the eastern edge of the rain shield plus easterly upslope should still support training cells in deep southerly flow. HREF/REFS neighborhood probabilities of more than 3 inches run 40–70% across the eastern half of the Moderate area. Overnight El Paso County already took radar-indicated 0.5–1.5 inch bursts and flash-flood warnings that expired before dawn.
Restoration read: water first. Stage pumps and air movers before the afternoon/evening cores organize. Burn-scar runoff and arroyos fail first. Start extraction the same night if water is inside. Turn around, don’t drown — most flood deaths are in vehicles.
Hotspot 2 — Southern Appalachians / eastern Tennessee
Dual desk: SPC Marginal for isolated damaging gusts, WPC Slight for flash flood on wet ground from eastern Kentucky through eastern Tennessee into far western North Carolina. Extensive low cloud this morning is the uncertainty. If breaks allow 250–750 J/kg MLCAPE, multicells along the inverted trough can put down strong gusts around peak heating. HREF/REFS neighborhood flash-flood-guidance exceedance peaks over eastern Tennessee (above 40% in spots). Overnight, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg held a flash-flood warning into 5:45 a.m. EDT for southeastern Buncombe, northeastern Henderson, southwestern McDowell, northwestern Polk, and northwestern Rutherford counties — 2.5–4 inches already down, waters receding by 3:05 a.m. EDT, Rocky Broad near Bat Cave falling through 6.58 feet.
Restoration read: leftover water plus a second-chance afternoon pulse. Do not treat receding creeks as closed. Stage extractors in eastern Tennessee and western North Carolina; tree and tarp crews only if the gusty cells actually fire.
Hotspot 3 — Western Dakotas
New SPC Marginal added on the 1300 UTC outlook. Mid-level trough crossing Wyoming/Montana reaches the western Dakotas late afternoon and deamplifies toward the Red River Valley by Thursday morning. Lee trough holds a moisture plume north from the central High Plains. Widely scattered storms near the Black Hills and lee trough this afternoon; isolated marginally severe hail or gusts through early evening. No major population centers sit inside the 5% hail contour.
Restoration read: isolated wind and hail, not a regional outbreak. Stage only if you already work the Black Hills / western Dakota corridor. Do not pull crews off the New Mexico water desk for this.
Just hit
Overnight flood, not overnight severe. NWS El Paso/Santa Teresa issued flash-flood warnings for northwestern and central El Paso County into the small hours (radar 0.5–1.5 inches, additional 0.5–1 inch possible; warnings through 3:15 a.m. MDT). Otero Mesa / northwest of Dell City had 2.5–3 inches radar-estimated earlier in the night with rural-road flooding held off Dell City by retention dams. NWS Wakefield: up to 4 inches since 11 p.m. in northwestern Amelia County and up to 5.5 inches since 10 p.m. in western Powhatan County; warnings through 4:00–5:30 a.m. EDT. Western North Carolina pulse receding after 2.5–4 inches.
SPC local storm reports for the 22/1200Z–23/1159Z window carried no tornado and no hail. Wind reports from late Tuesday afternoon remain on the board for Lauderdale County, Alabama (Lexington / Rogersville): power lines down, a brush fire, and a power pole/lines on a vehicle — already noted on yesterday’s afternoon Tygart Media desk. Do not invent additional LSR points.
Pulse table
| Region | Main threats | SPC / WPC / NWS level | Status this morning |
|---|---|---|---|
| Central / eastern NM and far west TX | Flash flood, training storms, burn-scar runoff | WPC Moderate | Live flood desk today–Thu 12Z |
| Southeast AZ | Localized flash flood | WPC Slight | Today |
| Eastern KY / eastern TN / far western NC | Flash flood + isolated damaging gusts | WPC Slight + SPC Marginal | Afternoon–evening |
| Western Dakotas / Black Hills | Isolated hail / gusts | SPC Marginal | Late afternoon–early evening |
| OH into WV / western VA–NC | Localized flash flood on wet soils | WPC Marginal | Today |
| South Florida | Urban flash flood | WPC Marginal | Local |
| El Paso / central VA / WNC overnight | Flash flood (expired/expiring FFWs) | Overnight NWS warnings | Aftermath / receding |
| U.S. mainland tropics | No landfalling named cyclone | NHC quiet for CONUS land | Quiet |
What this means for restoration teams
New Mexico and far west Texas remain water jobs if the Moderate risk verifies — extraction, drying, and a 24–48 hour mold clock. Central Virginia and western North Carolina are aftermath from last night plus a second-chance flood axis this afternoon in eastern Tennessee. The Dakotas Marginal is isolated. Do not treat receding overnight warnings as a closed book; soils are primed. Stage before the New Mexico afternoon cores. Start extraction the same night if water is inside. Turn around, don’t drown.
What this is not
This is not a regional derecho and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. There are no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin at this hour. Hurricane Polo (Category 4, off southwest Mexico) and Hurricane Odalys (eastern Pacific, well west of Baja) are not CONUS land threats today. Tropical Depression Fifteen-E is a Central Pacific system near Hawaii, not a mainland U.S. landfall. Today’s work, if it verifies, is scattered: New Mexico flash flood, leftover Mid-Atlantic and Appalachian water, isolated Dakotas hail/wind, isolated southern Appalachian gusts.
Looking ahead
SPC Day 2 (Thursday) and Day 3 currently show no severe thunderstorm areas. That does not cancel today’s New Mexico flood problem or this afternoon’s two Marginal corridors. Day 4–8 language is only a possible localized Plains/Mid-Mississippi threat next Monday–Wednesday with weak shear — too unclear for probabilities. Watch the next Storm Tracker update rather than assuming the Moderate rainfall risk is the last line of the week.
Sources and how to verify
Primary sources: SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook issued 7:26 a.m. CDT Wednesday, September 23, 2026 (Smith/Mead); SPC watches page updated 09:44:06 UTC Wednesday, September 23, 2026; WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook updated 0832 UTC Wednesday, September 23, 2026 (Chenard); NWS El Paso/Santa Teresa, Wakefield, and Greenville-Spartanburg flash-flood products overnight; SPC local storm reports (Lauderdale County, Alabama wind from Tuesday afternoon); NHC Atlantic discussion 1215 UTC Wednesday, September 23, 2026.
Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watch, and local storm reports, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay. Prior desk: Storm Updates September 22, 2026 — New Mexico Flood Moderate, Utah–Southeast Marginal.
Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.