Tropical: None · Severe: Quiet · Flood: Quiet
As of this Tuesday afternoon desk, October 20, 2026 (approximately 8:14 PM PDT / 11:14 PM EDT / 0314Z October 21), the national picture holds as a Quiet Pulse. SPC Day 1 continues with no severe thunderstorm areas forecast through tonight. WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook shows the probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance less than 5 percent. No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning is in effect on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America.
What Changed
- Compared with this morning’s quiet-pulse-2026-10-20-morning pulse table: SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook (latest 0100 UTC / 7:51 PM CDT Tuesday, October 20, 2026, valid 210100Z–211200Z) continues NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST. No categorical severe risk remains open. No convective watches or Mesoscale Discussions are currently in effect.
- WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated ~0028 UTC Wednesday October 21 / ~8:28 PM EDT Tuesday, valid 01Z–12Z Oct 21) confirms the probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less than 5 percent. The prior Marginal Risk over the Southwest has fully closed for Day 1. No Moderate or higher.
- No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America. NHC reports no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Eastern Pacific, or Central Pacific. AL93 remains a storm-force non-tropical low a few hundred miles off the mid-Atlantic/North Carolina coast with a medium (40%) chance of briefly acquiring subtropical characteristics over the next couple of days as it moves north-northeast over the Gulf Stream. High winds, coastal flooding, and dangerous surf continue along portions of the East Coast.
- Looking ahead (not Day 1): SPC Day 2 maintains an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms across portions of Arizona for Wednesday, with large hail and tornado potential. WPC Day 2 carries a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over the Southwest and Four Corners. Flood Watches are in effect for much of central and eastern Arizona, plus portions of New Mexico, Colorado, and California starting Wednesday. This remains outside the current Day 1 window.
- Nothing material has moved to open a Slight or higher severe lane or Moderate or higher flood lane for today. Quiet Pulse holds on Day 1.
Live Status
SPC Day 1 (0100Z October 21) lists no severe thunderstorm areas. Isolated thunderstorms remain possible this evening into tonight across parts of the Desert Southwest and Intermountain West under modest instability, and overnight along a low-level moisture axis over the southern and central Great Plains, but no severe threat is forecast. No watches are valid.
The flood lane is Quiet on Day 1. Residual river Flood Warnings continue in Florida (St. Johns River near Astor, moderate stage) and Georgia (Satilla River at Atkinson). Coastal and marine products, including Gale Warnings and Storm Warnings offshore the mid-Atlantic, persist with the non-tropical low. Flood Watches for Wednesday cover portions of the Southwest and California ahead of the next system. Winter Storm Warnings remain active in interior Alaska.
Hotspots
- Southwest / Arizona corridor (looking ahead): Flood Watches already issued for central and eastern Arizona, southwest Colorado, and western New Mexico starting Wednesday afternoon. SPC Day 2 Enhanced Risk targets portions of Arizona for large hail and isolated tornadoes. WPC Day 2 Slight Risk of excessive rainfall covers the Southwest and Four Corners.
- East Coast coastal / marine: Storm-force non-tropical low (AL93) offshore the mid-Atlantic continues to drive high winds, coastal flooding, and dangerous surf. Gale Warnings and Storm Warnings are in effect for offshore waters. No tropical development is imminent for U.S. land.
- Residual river and Alaska winter: Ongoing Flood Warnings on the St. Johns (FL) and Satilla (GA). Winter Storm Warnings remain active across portions of interior Alaska (Eastern Alaska Range, Fortymile Country, Yukon Flats) with heavy snow totals of 5–36 inches depending on elevation.
Just-Hit
No significant local storm reports of severe weather (hail ≥1 inch, damaging wind, tornado) or widespread flash flooding on Day 1. Prior Marginal activity over southeast Arizona and southwest New Mexico has ended with loss of heating. Residual river stages and coastal products only.
Pulse Table
| Lane | Status | Notes (as of ~8:14 PM PDT / 11:14 PM EDT / 0314Z 21 Oct 2026) |
|---|---|---|
| Tropical | None | No named systems threatening U.S. land or Gulf. NHC: no tropical cyclones Atlantic/EPAC/CPAC. AL93 non-tropical low off mid-Atlantic (40% subtropical chance next few days). No U.S. tropical watches/warnings. |
| Severe | Quiet | SPC Day 1 (0100Z Oct 21): NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST. No watches or MDs valid. Isolated thunder possible Southwest and Plains overnight, no severe threat. |
| Flood | Quiet | WPC Day 1 probability <5%. Residual river Flood Warnings (St. Johns near Astor FL, Satilla Atkinson GA). Flood Watches issued for Southwest/CA starting Wednesday. Day 2 Slight Risk Southwest. |
Rising Queries
“Flood watch” is rising in U.S. Trends, driven by the Arizona and Southwest Flood Watches issued ahead of Wednesday’s system. Related searches include Arizona weather, severe storms Arizona, and Phoenix flood watch. Broader weather forecast queries remain elevated with the approaching Day 2 risk.
Restoration Read
Quiet Pulse for today. No open Slight or higher severe or Moderate or higher flood lanes on Day 1. Residual river flooding in Florida and Georgia is the primary ongoing water concern. Coastal flooding and high surf along the East Coast will continue with the offshore low. Wednesday brings the first above-Quiet window over Arizona and the Southwest—monitor Flood Watches and the Day 2 Enhanced Risk closely. Turn around, don’t drown on any residual flooded roads.
What This Is Not
This is a Quiet Pulse. No SPC Slight or higher severe risk, no WPC Moderate or higher excessive rainfall on Day 1, and no tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf. The Enhanced severe and Slight flood risks for Wednesday remain outside the current Day 1 window.
Looking Ahead One Day
Wednesday holds an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms across portions of Arizona (large hail, isolated tornado potential) on the SPC Day 2 outlook. WPC Day 2 carries a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over the Southwest and Four Corners. Flood Watches are already in effect for much of central and eastern Arizona and adjacent areas starting Wednesday. The East Coast offshore low continues to influence winds, surf, and coastal flooding as it moves northeast. No named tropical threat to the U.S. coast is indicated.
Sources
- SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook: spc.noaa.gov
- WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook: wpc.ncep.noaa.gov
- NWS Watches/Warnings: weather.gov
- NHC: nhc.noaa.gov
- This morning’s desk: quiet-pulse-2026-10-20-morning
Informational only — not an official weather warning. Always consult official NWS, SPC, WPC, and NHC products for decisions.