Tag: Alaska

  • Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Nov 13 Morning

    Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Nov 13 Morning

    Tropical: None · Severe: None · Flood: Quiet

    What Changed

    • SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook (0100 UTC Nov 13 / 0637 PM CST Nov 12 2026 by Leitman) remains NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST. Earlier Slight Risk over southeastern Pennsylvania and central-southern New Jersey has closed as convection weakened and moved offshore. No convective watches valid. No material change from the November 12 afternoon pulse table.
    • WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 0053 UTC Nov 13 / 752 PM EST Nov 12 by Pereira) continues to show the probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance less than 5 percent nationally. Prior Marginal risk areas have closed. No Moderate or above. National flood lane remains Quiet.
    • Residual Flash Flood Warning for southeastern Monmouth and northeastern Ocean Counties, New Jersey (until 10 PM EST Nov 12) has expired. No active elevated national flood products remain from that event.
    • NHC: no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf of America. No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf. Formation not expected during the next 7 days. No change.
    • Winter Storm Warnings remain in effect for the Sierra Nevada (California and Nevada) for heavy snow Friday into Saturday. Blizzard Warnings continue along the northern Alaska Arctic coast. No material change in other lanes.

    Live Status

    As of the morning desk on Friday, November 13, 2026 (approximately 9:16 PM PST November 12 / 12:16 AM EST November 13 / 0516Z), the national picture remains a Quiet Pulse. The Storm Prediction Center’s Day 1 Convective Outlook holds no severe thunderstorm areas through early Friday. Isolated thunderstorms may occur late tonight or early Friday near the southern California coast as an upper shortwave trough shifts east, but modest flow and weak instability preclude severe potential. WPC Day 1 ERO stays below the 5 percent threshold. No tropical cyclone threatens or has just hit the U.S. coast or Gulf.

    Winter Storm Warnings cover portions of the Sierra Nevada above roughly 6,000–7,000 feet for heavy snow and gusty winds Friday into Saturday, with accumulations of several inches to more than a foot near the crest in some locations. Blizzard conditions continue intermittently along the central and eastern Beaufort Sea Coast in northern Alaska through Sunday morning, with strong winds and reduced visibility. Residual high surf and coastal flood concerns persist along parts of the California and Oregon coasts, along with freeze watches in portions of the Southeast. These are local winter and marine products; they do not open a national severe or excessive rainfall lane.

    Pulse Table

    LaneStatusNotes (as of ~0516Z Nov 13 / 9:16 PM PST Nov 12 2026)
    TropicalNoneNo TC in Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf of America. NHC formation not expected next 7 days. No U.S. coastal or Gulf watches or warnings.
    SevereNoneSPC Day 1 (0100Z Nov 13): NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST. Prior Mid-Atlantic Slight closed. Isolated non-severe storms possible southern CA coast. No watches valid.
    FloodQuietWPC Day 1 ERO probability less than 5 percent. Prior Marginal areas closed. Residual NJ Flash Flood Warning expired. No Moderate or above.

    Rising Queries

    • tornado watch
    • high surf warning
    • California weather
    • Sierra snow
    • blizzard warning Alaska

    Residual search interest from earlier Mid-Atlantic severe activity and ongoing coastal and winter products. National severe and flood lanes remain closed.

    Restoration Read

    Quiet Pulse. No organized severe or excessive rainfall window is open. Residual work centers on winter impacts in the Sierra Nevada (heavy snow, possible travel disruptions Friday into Saturday) and localized high surf or freeze concerns elsewhere. No new wind, hail, or tornado tickets. Standard quiet-day posture: monitor weather.gov for county-level winter and marine products. Turn around, don’t drown remains the standing rule for any residual standing water.

    Informational only — not an official warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service.

  • Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Nov 12 Morning

    Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Nov 12 Morning

    Tropical: None · Severe: None · Flood: Quiet

    What Changed

    • SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook (0100 UTC Nov 13 / 0637 PM CST Nov 12 2026 by Leitman) continues NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST. No change from prior update. Severe probabilities remain removed; no watches valid.
    • WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (0053 UTC Nov 13 update) continues probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance less than 5 percent. No Moderate or above. National flood lane remains Quiet.
    • Residual Flash Flood Warning for southeastern Monmouth and northeastern Ocean Counties NJ (until 10 PM EST / 7 PM PST) has expired. No active national elevated flood products.
    • NHC: no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean or Gulf of America. No TS or hurricane watch/warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf. Formation not expected next 7 days. No change.
    • Winter Storm Warnings remain in effect for the Sierra Nevada (CA/NV) for heavy snow Friday into Saturday. Blizzard Warnings continue in northern Alaska Arctic coast. No material change in other lanes.

    Live Status

    As of the morning desk update on Thursday, November 12, 2026 (evening confirmation approximately 8:16 PM PST / 11:16 PM EST / 0416Z Nov 13), the national picture remains a Quiet Pulse. SPC Day 1 holds no severe thunderstorm areas. WPC Day 1 ERO is below the 5% threshold. No tropical cyclone threatens or has just hit the U.S. coast or Gulf. Earlier Mid-Atlantic severe activity has fully closed. Local residual flood products in New Jersey have expired. The building Sierra Nevada winter storm is the primary upcoming concern but remains outside the Day 1 severe and excessive rainfall lanes.

    Pulse Table

    LaneStatusNotes (as of ~0416Z Nov 13 / 8:16 PM PST Nov 12 2026)
    TropicalNoneNo TC in Atlantic/Caribbean/Gulf. NHC formation not expected next 7 days. No U.S. coastal or Gulf watches/warnings.
    SevereNoneSPC Day 1 (0100Z Nov 13): NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST. Isolated non-severe storms possible southern CA coast overnight, no severe threat. No watches.
    FloodQuietWPC Day 1: probability exceeding flash flood guidance <5%. Prior Marginal closed. Residual FFW in NJ expired.
    WinterBuildingWinter Storm Warnings Sierra Nevada (above 6000-7000 ft) Friday-Saturday, 6-20 inches possible with ridge gusts 60-90 mph. Blizzard Warnings northern AK Arctic coast through Sunday.

    Rising Queries

    Trends unreachable. Interest observed in Sierra Nevada snow totals, winter storm warning California, Tahoe snow, and residual New Jersey flash flood.

    Outlook Forward

    Day 2 SPC shows no severe thunderstorm areas. The primary upcoming concern is the Sierra Nevada winter storm beginning Friday morning, with heavy wet snow above 6000-7000 feet, ridge winds to 60-90 mph, and difficult travel over I-80, Highway 50 and other passes. Alaska blizzard conditions persist on the northern Arctic coast. No tropical development expected. Restoration teams in the Mid-Atlantic can stand down on active severe documentation; Sierra interests should prepare for snow and wind impacts Friday into Saturday. Residual urban drainage issues from earlier rains should continue to recede.

    Informational only — not an official warning. This is a summary of official public products from the Storm Prediction Center, Weather Prediction Center, National Weather Service, and National Hurricane Center as of approximately 8:16 PM PST on November 12, 2026. Always consult the latest official forecasts and warnings for your location. Turn around, don’t drown.

    Sources: SPC · WPC ERO · NWS WWA · NHC

  • Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Oct 20

    Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Oct 20

    Tropical: None · Severe: Quiet · Flood: Quiet

    As of this Tuesday afternoon desk, October 20, 2026 (approximately 8:14 PM PDT / 11:14 PM EDT / 0314Z October 21), the national picture holds as a Quiet Pulse. SPC Day 1 continues with no severe thunderstorm areas forecast through tonight. WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook shows the probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance less than 5 percent. No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning is in effect on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America.

    What Changed

    • Compared with this morning’s quiet-pulse-2026-10-20-morning pulse table: SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook (latest 0100 UTC / 7:51 PM CDT Tuesday, October 20, 2026, valid 210100Z–211200Z) continues NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST. No categorical severe risk remains open. No convective watches or Mesoscale Discussions are currently in effect.
    • WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated ~0028 UTC Wednesday October 21 / ~8:28 PM EDT Tuesday, valid 01Z–12Z Oct 21) confirms the probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less than 5 percent. The prior Marginal Risk over the Southwest has fully closed for Day 1. No Moderate or higher.
    • No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America. NHC reports no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Eastern Pacific, or Central Pacific. AL93 remains a storm-force non-tropical low a few hundred miles off the mid-Atlantic/North Carolina coast with a medium (40%) chance of briefly acquiring subtropical characteristics over the next couple of days as it moves north-northeast over the Gulf Stream. High winds, coastal flooding, and dangerous surf continue along portions of the East Coast.
    • Looking ahead (not Day 1): SPC Day 2 maintains an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms across portions of Arizona for Wednesday, with large hail and tornado potential. WPC Day 2 carries a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over the Southwest and Four Corners. Flood Watches are in effect for much of central and eastern Arizona, plus portions of New Mexico, Colorado, and California starting Wednesday. This remains outside the current Day 1 window.
    • Nothing material has moved to open a Slight or higher severe lane or Moderate or higher flood lane for today. Quiet Pulse holds on Day 1.

    Live Status

    SPC Day 1 (0100Z October 21) lists no severe thunderstorm areas. Isolated thunderstorms remain possible this evening into tonight across parts of the Desert Southwest and Intermountain West under modest instability, and overnight along a low-level moisture axis over the southern and central Great Plains, but no severe threat is forecast. No watches are valid.

    The flood lane is Quiet on Day 1. Residual river Flood Warnings continue in Florida (St. Johns River near Astor, moderate stage) and Georgia (Satilla River at Atkinson). Coastal and marine products, including Gale Warnings and Storm Warnings offshore the mid-Atlantic, persist with the non-tropical low. Flood Watches for Wednesday cover portions of the Southwest and California ahead of the next system. Winter Storm Warnings remain active in interior Alaska.

    Hotspots

    • Southwest / Arizona corridor (looking ahead): Flood Watches already issued for central and eastern Arizona, southwest Colorado, and western New Mexico starting Wednesday afternoon. SPC Day 2 Enhanced Risk targets portions of Arizona for large hail and isolated tornadoes. WPC Day 2 Slight Risk of excessive rainfall covers the Southwest and Four Corners.
    • East Coast coastal / marine: Storm-force non-tropical low (AL93) offshore the mid-Atlantic continues to drive high winds, coastal flooding, and dangerous surf. Gale Warnings and Storm Warnings are in effect for offshore waters. No tropical development is imminent for U.S. land.
    • Residual river and Alaska winter: Ongoing Flood Warnings on the St. Johns (FL) and Satilla (GA). Winter Storm Warnings remain active across portions of interior Alaska (Eastern Alaska Range, Fortymile Country, Yukon Flats) with heavy snow totals of 5–36 inches depending on elevation.

    Just-Hit

    No significant local storm reports of severe weather (hail ≥1 inch, damaging wind, tornado) or widespread flash flooding on Day 1. Prior Marginal activity over southeast Arizona and southwest New Mexico has ended with loss of heating. Residual river stages and coastal products only.

    Pulse Table

    LaneStatusNotes (as of ~8:14 PM PDT / 11:14 PM EDT / 0314Z 21 Oct 2026)
    TropicalNoneNo named systems threatening U.S. land or Gulf. NHC: no tropical cyclones Atlantic/EPAC/CPAC. AL93 non-tropical low off mid-Atlantic (40% subtropical chance next few days). No U.S. tropical watches/warnings.
    SevereQuietSPC Day 1 (0100Z Oct 21): NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST. No watches or MDs valid. Isolated thunder possible Southwest and Plains overnight, no severe threat.
    FloodQuietWPC Day 1 probability <5%. Residual river Flood Warnings (St. Johns near Astor FL, Satilla Atkinson GA). Flood Watches issued for Southwest/CA starting Wednesday. Day 2 Slight Risk Southwest.

    Rising Queries

    “Flood watch” is rising in U.S. Trends, driven by the Arizona and Southwest Flood Watches issued ahead of Wednesday’s system. Related searches include Arizona weather, severe storms Arizona, and Phoenix flood watch. Broader weather forecast queries remain elevated with the approaching Day 2 risk.

    Restoration Read

    Quiet Pulse for today. No open Slight or higher severe or Moderate or higher flood lanes on Day 1. Residual river flooding in Florida and Georgia is the primary ongoing water concern. Coastal flooding and high surf along the East Coast will continue with the offshore low. Wednesday brings the first above-Quiet window over Arizona and the Southwest—monitor Flood Watches and the Day 2 Enhanced Risk closely. Turn around, don’t drown on any residual flooded roads.

    What This Is Not

    This is a Quiet Pulse. No SPC Slight or higher severe risk, no WPC Moderate or higher excessive rainfall on Day 1, and no tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf. The Enhanced severe and Slight flood risks for Wednesday remain outside the current Day 1 window.

    Looking Ahead One Day

    Wednesday holds an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms across portions of Arizona (large hail, isolated tornado potential) on the SPC Day 2 outlook. WPC Day 2 carries a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over the Southwest and Four Corners. Flood Watches are already in effect for much of central and eastern Arizona and adjacent areas starting Wednesday. The East Coast offshore low continues to influence winds, surf, and coastal flooding as it moves northeast. No named tropical threat to the U.S. coast is indicated.

    Sources

    Informational only — not an official weather warning. Always consult official NWS, SPC, WPC, and NHC products for decisions.