Tag: storm tracker 2026

Storm Updates: Kansas Flash Flood Emergency, Texas Water — Thursday, October 1, 2026

This is a live Thursday afternoon snapshot for October 1, 2026. The organized severe window is small. The Storm Prediction Center 2000 UTC Day 1 convective outlook, updated 2:49 p.m. CDT, holds a Marginal Risk only across parts of southern Kansas and northwest Oklahoma — about 16,457 square miles and roughly 121,676 people, with Liberal, Kansas, and Woodward, Oklahoma, named in the risk table. No severe thunderstorm watch number is attached to that outlook. The live ticket is water. The National Weather Service in Dodge City issued a Flash Flood Emergency at 2:32 p.m. CDT for Dodge City and central Ford County, tagged catastrophic damage threat, after 3 to 6 inches of rain with another 3 to 5 inches possible. Restoration exposure this afternoon is interior water, saturated streets, and a short gusty-wind tail on the High Plains — not a hail swath and not a tornado outbreak.

These are county-scale thunderstorms and training rain, not a U.S. landfalling hurricane. Hurricane Rachel is in the eastern Pacific, south of Baja California Sur, with no coastal watches or warnings in effect on the 2 a.m. MST advisory and a track taking the center away from mainland Mexico. The Atlantic basin has no tropical cyclones this afternoon. Conditions change fast. Verify the county warning at weather.gov before a crew rolls.

What is live this afternoon

SPC’s Day 1 update valid from 2000 UTC Thursday through 1200 UTC Friday puts a 5 percent wind probability and a 2 percent tornado probability on that southern Kansas and northwest Oklahoma Marginal. No hail risk area is drawn. Mesoscale Discussion 2345, issued 1:32 p.m. CDT, covers southwestern Kansas into far northwestern Oklahoma and rates watch issuance at 5 percent. The discussion notes several storms undercut by the front produced 40 to 50 knot gusts from Hamilton to Finney counties, and that a brief tornado is most plausible in the warm sector along the Kansas–Oklahoma border — too localized, in SPC’s words, to warrant a watch. Filtered storm reports from 1200 UTC today show no tornado reports and no hail reports. Two wind reports landed near Garden City: 58 mph and 59 mph, 3 miles northwest of Pierceville in Finney County, from the Garden City ASOS at 12:54 p.m. and 1:02 p.m. CDT.

The Weather Prediction Center Day 1 excessive-rainfall point file issued 3:26 p.m. EDT, valid 1927 UTC Thursday through 12 UTC Friday, keeps a Moderate Risk of rainfall exceeding flash-flood guidance on a swath the point string ties through southwest and north Texas — Uvalde, Fort Worth Spinks, McKinney, Paris — and east toward the southern Appalachians near Morristown, Tennessee. A Slight Risk covers a broader corridor from the central Plains, including Hill City and Manhattan, Kansas, Falls City, Nebraska, and Lamoni and Iowa City, Iowa, into the Midwest fringe. A separate Marginal pocket sits over South Florida. The overnight Moderate discussion that was valid only through 12 UTC Thursday has expired; the afternoon product is the one above, and the warnings below are what is actually in effect.

Hotspot 1 — Dodge City and southwest to central Kansas

This is the live emergency. NWS Dodge City’s 2:32 p.m. CDT Flash Flood Warning for central Ford County runs until 5:30 p.m. CDT and includes the Flash Flood Emergency language for Dodge City, Ford, Fort Dodge, and Wright. Source is emergency management. Damage threat is catastrophic. A separate Dodge City warning covers southwestern Gray, southern Haskell, northwestern Meade, and northeastern Seward counties until 6:00 p.m. CDT, including Sublette and Copeland, after 1 to 3 inches with another half inch to an inch possible. Farther east, NWS Wichita has a Flash Flood Warning until 8:00 p.m. CDT for northeastern McPherson and northwestern Marion counties, including Canton, Lehigh, and Roxbury, with up to 3 inches already down and another 3 inches possible; damage threat considerable. NWS Topeka has a warning until 7:00 p.m. CDT for Geary and northwestern Morris counties after 3 to 5 inches, including Junction City and Grandview Plaza and Interstate 70 between mile markers 291 and 302 and 310 and 315. An earlier Topeka statement kept flooding in play for Manhattan, Wamego, and the Milford and Tuttle Creek lake areas.

Restoration read: this is a water ticket already open, not a forecast. Extraction, contents, and a mold clock start where water entered finished space. Do not route a crew across a closed low-water crossing to reach the loss. Wind is secondary here — the Garden City gusts are a roof-and-tree check, not the headline.

Hotspot 2 — San Antonio metro and northeast Texas

NWS Austin/San Antonio kept a Flash Flood Warning in effect until 7:00 p.m. CDT for northern Atascosa, Bexar, and western Wilson counties. At 3:23 p.m. CDT, emergency management reported flash flooding with numerous low-water crossings closed. Leon and Olmos creeks had responded. One to 4 inches had fallen, with up to another inch possible. Damage threat is considerable. Locations in the warning text include San Antonio, Schertz, Converse, Universal City, Live Oak, Pleasanton, Floresville, Helotes, and Randolph AFB. NWS Shreveport issued a Flash Flood Warning at 3:23 p.m. CDT until 6:30 p.m. CDT for northwestern Cherokee and central Smith counties, including Tyler, Jacksonville, Whitehouse, and Lindale, with 1 to 2 inches down and rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour expected.

SPC’s 2000 UTC update also notes convective coverage increasing over south-central and south Texas in hot, humid air. A localized strong gust is possible with the strongest downdrafts. Poor mid-level lapse rates and weakening shear keep that below a broader severe risk. Restoration read: San Antonio is observed water and closed crossings. Tyler is a radar-indicated flood warning with a short fuse. Treat both as urban-drainage and creek jobs, not as a severe-wind corridor.

Hotspot 3 — Southern Kansas and northwest Oklahoma Marginal

The only categorical severe area on the afternoon Day 1 outlook is the trimmed Marginal from southern Kansas into northwest Oklahoma, centered on Liberal and Woodward. The 11:28 a.m. CDT discussion, still carried as the previous discussion on the 2000 UTC product, describes a weak surface low over northwest Oklahoma and the northeast Texas Panhandle, a front northeast across Kansas, and a Pacific cold front south across the southern Plains. Cool temperatures aloft, around minus 10 to minus 11 C at 500 mb, can support small hail, strong to locally severe winds, and perhaps a brief tornado until the cold front undercuts the storms by late afternoon or early evening. SPC trimmed the northwestern edge of the Marginal where severe probabilities dropped behind ongoing convection.

A low-probability isolated storm is also noted along the surface front in northeastern Missouri and western Illinois later this afternoon or evening. Poor lapse rates and limited buoyancy keep severity muted if anything develops. Restoration read: stage a small wind-and-tree check for Liberal, Woodward, and the Kansas–Oklahoma border counties. Do not staff it like a watch.

Just hit

The overnight story is already a ticket, not a new outlook. The 0100 UTC Day 1 outlook from Wednesday evening had carried a Slight Risk from Texas into southwest Oklahoma and over north-central Kansas, with a tornado window noted for the next hour or two mainly in north-central and northeast Kansas. Today’s 12Z-onward SPC filtered page does not list a tornado or hail report. What verified into this afternoon is rain: Dodge City’s 3 to 6 inches, Junction City’s 3 to 5 inches, and San Antonio’s closed crossings. The morning Storm Tracker desk is the prior URL for that overnight close-out.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS level	Status this afternoon
Dodge City / Ford County, KS	Life-threatening flash flood, 3–6 in already	Flash Flood Emergency, catastrophic	Live until 5:30 p.m. CDT
Junction City, Manhattan, McPherson–Marion, KS	Flash flood, training rain, I-70	Flash Flood Warnings	Live into evening
San Antonio / Bexar, Atascosa, Wilson	Observed flooding, closed crossings	Flash Flood Warning, considerable	Live until 7 p.m. CDT
Tyler / Smith and Cherokee counties, TX	Heavy rain, urban drainage	Flash Flood Warning	Live until 6:30 p.m. CDT
Southern KS / northwest OK	Gusty wind, brief tornado possible	SPC Marginal; MD 2345, watch unlikely	No watch number
Atlantic / U.S. mainland tropics	No landfalling cyclone	NHC: no Atlantic cyclones	Quiet on the U.S. coast

What this means for restoration teams

Ford County is the priority desk. A catastrophic Flash Flood Emergency means finished-floor water, contents, and electrical in low structures are already in play where the water reached them. Photograph only from safe ground. The San Antonio warning is the second water desk: crossings are closed, so access is the constraint, not the estimate. Tyler is a shorter fuse on the same rain axis. The Marginal in Liberal and Woodward is a gust check — the only filtered wind reports so far are the 58 and 59 mph Garden City readings. A 60 mph peak is the most probable gust in MD 2345’s language, which is roof edge, fascia, and tree-on-structure work if it verifies, not a regional tarp campaign.

Do not send the same crew from Dodge City to San Antonio. They are separate warning offices and separate hydrology. Kansas water is High Plains urban and small-stream flooding under a slow upper low. San Antonio water is creek response in Bexar County with emergency-management confirmation.

What this is not

This is not a derecho, not a tornado outbreak, and not a U.S. hurricane landfall. SPC drew no hail risk area on the 2000 UTC outlook. No severe thunderstorm watch is in effect on that product. Rachel is a Pacific hurricane south of Baja with no U.S. coastal warning. Tropical Storm Nolo is in the central Pacific and is not a mainland landfall. The work this afternoon, where it is already reported, is floodwater in Ford County, Geary County, the San Antonio metro, and Smith County.

Looking ahead

SPC’s Day 2 convective outlook, issued 11:54 a.m. CDT and valid Friday into Friday night, forecasts no severe thunderstorm areas. A cold front is expected to reach the southern Mid-Atlantic, the Tennessee Valley, and the Texas coast by 12 UTC Saturday, with a broken band of showers and storms along it and limited destabilization where morning rain lingers. The flood story can outlast the severe story. Friday’s desk is leftover high water in Kansas and Texas, not a new Slight Risk.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources, all dated Thursday, October 1, 2026: NOAA Storm Prediction Center 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook (updated 2:49 p.m. CDT) and Mesoscale Discussion 2345 (1:32 p.m. CDT); SPC today’s storm reports page (1200 UTC window); Weather Prediction Center Day 1 excessive-rainfall point file issued 3:26 p.m. EDT; National Weather Service warning text for Dodge City, Wichita, Topeka, Austin/San Antonio, and Shreveport; National Hurricane Center active-cyclone listing and Hurricane Rachel Advisory 17. Morning desk: Storm Updates, October 1, 2026 (Morning).

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook and local storm reports, and the WPC excessive rainfall outlook for the flood overlay.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

October 1, 2026

Storm Updates: Kansas Tornado Aftermath, Quiet Severe Pulse — Thursday, October 1, 2026 (Morning)

This is the Thursday morning Storm Tracker desk for October 1, 2026. Overnight into this morning the organized severe window closed. The Storm Prediction Center 1300 UTC Day 1 convective outlook, issued at 7:53 a.m. CDT, has no severe thunderstorm areas forecast. No convective watches are valid. The work that verified was last evening in central Kansas, plus wind and heavy rain on the southern Plains. Today the national pulse is a Quiet Pulse on the severe side and a flood desk on the rain side.

These are county-scale thunderstorms and leftover water, not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. Remnant moisture from Polo is already folded into the Plains low. Restoration exposure this morning is survey work on a narrow Kansas tornado path, wind and pole damage in west and northwest Texas, and interior water where Wednesday night rain trained. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What expired overnight, and what is still live

Tornado Watch 675 covered central into northeast Kansas from 4:00 p.m. CDT Wednesday until 11:00 p.m. CDT. Severe Thunderstorm Watch 676 covered west-central Texas from 5:10 p.m. CDT until midnight CDT, with damaging wind to 70 mph the primary threat and a tornado or two not ruled out. Both have expired. SPC’s watch page, updated 12:12 UTC Thursday, lists no watches currently valid. The most recent issuance was Watch 676.

The 0100 UTC Day 1 update Wednesday evening still carried a Slight Risk from Texas into southwest Oklahoma and over north-central Kansas, with a couple of tornadoes possible for another hour or two in north-central and northeast Kansas. By the 0600 UTC outlook, SPC had dropped all categorical severe areas. The 1300 UTC update keeps that call. Organized severe potential is low. Occasional gusty winds can still accompany storms from parts of Kansas southward into central and southern Texas. SPC also notes a low-end funnel chance near a weakening surface wave and the front over southern Kansas, the Texas Panhandle, and western and northern Oklahoma if cloud breaks allow heating. That is not a watch, and it is not a categorical risk.

What is still live is the rain. The Weather Prediction Center short-range discussion issued at 2:52 a.m. EDT Thursday keeps a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southern Plains today. A Slight Risk covers parts of the Central Plains, the Middle Mississippi Valley, and parts of the Great Lakes. WPC language: numerous flash-flooding events are possible on the Moderate, and streams may flood, including debris flows in or near recently burned areas. The Slight is mainly localized flash flooding of urban streets, roads, and small streams. SPC’s own Day 1 text says the same thing in different words for eastern Oklahoma into north Texas, the Hill Country, and the Edwards Plateau: repetitive, locally heavy rainfall is the main concern as the rain shield shifts slowly east ahead of a surface low and cold front.

Just hit — central Kansas tornadoes

NWS Wichita has a preliminary event page for Wednesday afternoon and evening. A few low-topped supercells with very low cloud bases produced several tornadoes across Barton, Russell, and Lincoln counties ahead of a strong Plains low, in a tropical-like airmass tied in part to the remnants of Polo. Instability was not extreme. Low-level moisture was. Wichita’s summary: no significant damage or injuries reported.

SPC local storm reports for the period ending 11:59 UTC Thursday list the sequence. Storm-chaser video of a tornado 3 miles south-southwest of Ash Valley in Pawnee County at 20:49 UTC, then 1 mile southeast of Ash Valley at 20:53 UTC. Barton County followed: Olmitz at 21:52 UTC, Galatia at 21:58 UTC, several brief touchdowns west and northwest of Susank between 22:01 and 22:10 UTC, with tornado damage to some outbuildings 4 miles north-northwest of Susank. Russell County: a rope tornado 3 miles east of Bunker Hill, described as 3 miles west of Dorrance and north of I-70, at 22:51 UTC, then a spotter tornado 6 miles south of Lucas at 23:24 UTC. Lincoln County: an elephant-trunk tornado 3 miles east of Lucas at 23:39 UTC, Sylvan Grove at 23:43 and 23:53 UTC, a multi-vortex 4 miles south of Ash Grove at 00:01 UTC. A brief touchdown 2 miles southeast of Victor in Mitchell County at 00:23 UTC is the last tornado LSR on the board. NWS Wichita also issued a confirmed tornado warning for southwestern Russell and northwestern Barton counties around 4:13 p.m. CDT, with a spotter tornado south of Milberger.

Restoration read: this is a survey corridor, not a regional wind event. Outbuildings near Susank are the damage note on the filtered LSR list. Treat Barton, Russell, and Lincoln as the counties to check for roof punctures, farm structures, and tree-on-line calls. Do not staff it as a citywide loss. Photograph in daylight if it is safe. The path language from chasers and radar estimates is preliminary.

Just hit — Texas wind, and one Florida Keys note

The same LSR board has no hail reports. Wind is west and northwest Texas, mostly after dark. At least two power poles broken near the base 6 miles north-northwest of Tubbs Corner in Crane County around 20:40 UTC. A measured 58 mph gust at Clayton, New Mexico, at 22:40 UTC. One power pole and line down 1 mile northeast of Roscoe in Nolan County at 23:46 UTC. A 60 mph observer gust 24 miles south of Ozona in Crockett County at 01:06 UTC. A 64 mph gust 10 miles southwest of Paducah in Cottle County at 01:20 UTC. A 60 mph gust 4 miles south-southeast of Estelline in Hall County at 01:29 UTC. A 68 mph gust 4 miles west of Rotan in Fisher County at 02:50 UTC, the strongest measured wind on the board.

That is pole, line, and outbuilding work in the Concho Valley and Rolling Plains, consistent with Watch 676’s wind threat before it expired at midnight. Today’s SPC report page, which opens at 12:00 UTC Thursday, has no tornado, hail, or wind reports as of this desk.

One non-Plains tornado LSR sits earlier on Wednesday’s board, not in the overnight window: 16:00 UTC, 2 miles southwest of Rock Harbor in Monroe County, Florida. Preliminary highly localized damage to one residence in the Silver Shores community between Tavernier and Rock Harbor, time approximate, investigated by the emergency manager. That is a single-structure note, not a Plains-style outbreak.

Hotspot this morning — Southern Plains rain

SPC describes extensive convection from eastern Oklahoma into north Texas and southwestward into the Hill Country and Edwards Plateau, with a few stronger elements still ongoing at outlook time. The shield should keep a gradual eastward shift through the day on warm advection ahead of the surface low and cold front. Cloud cover and ongoing rain limit heating. Low-level winds are expected to weaken. Gusty winds can still occur. The severe ceiling is low. The water ceiling is not.

Wednesday’s WPC Day 1 Moderate, valid through 12 UTC Thursday, already targeted the Concho Valley, North Texas west of the Dallas–Fort Worth metroplex, the Edwards Plateau and Hill Country between San Angelo and Fort Worth, the Red River Valley, and a second Moderate from north-central Kansas through southeast Nebraska into western Iowa, including the Omaha and Des Moines corridors, with 2 to 4 inches and local amounts higher where cells trained on the warm front. Thursday’s new Moderate stays on the Southern Plains as Gulf moisture pools along the front. Cities and counties to watch for water, not for a new severe watch: San Angelo, Abilene, the Hill Country approaches to Fort Worth, southeast Oklahoma, and the Red River counties. Central Plains and western Iowa are the leftover Slight, where Wednesday night rain may already be in streets and small streams.

Restoration read: rain first. Stage extractors and drying equipment where flash-flood warnings or flooded intersections verify, especially on soils that took rain yesterday. A 58 to 68 mph gust is roof, siding, and service-drop work in the counties that already reported poles. A funnel or brief spin-up near the Kansas–Oklahoma boundary, if one occurs, is a local survey, not a second Watch 675. Do not send the Kansas tornado crew and the Texas water crew as if they are the same ticket.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS / WPC level	Status this morning
Barton, Russell, Lincoln, Mitchell KS	Tornado path, outbuildings	Watch 675 expired 11 p.m. CDT	Just hit; no significant damage reported
West-central and northwest Texas	Wind, poles, lines	Watch 676 expired midnight CDT	Just hit; 68 mph Rotan
Eastern OK / north TX / Hill Country	Heavy rain, isolated gusts	No severe areas; WPC Moderate flood	Live rain shield
Southern KS / TX Panhandle / western OK	Gusty wind, small hail, funnel chance	No categorical risk	Conditional this afternoon
Central Plains into western Iowa	Localized flash flood	WPC Slight	Overnight water, still draining
U.S. mainland tropics	No landfalling cyclone	Polo remnants inland	Quiet on the coast

What this means for restoration teams

Wind at 60 to 68 mph is roof, gutter, tree, and service-drop work, already logged in Crane, Nolan, Cottle, Hall, and Fisher counties. A tornado with no significant damage reported is still a county check: farm buildings and a few roofs can sit outside the first NWS summary. Heavy rain on a Moderate excessive-rainfall risk is wet drywall and a 24 to 48 hour mold clock if water got inside overnight. Kansas–Nebraska–Iowa water from the warm-front train is yesterday’s ticket still moving through town.

For teams on the Southern Plains: the severe watch is over. The flood risk is not. Property owners should photograph damage in daylight if it is safe, call the carrier, and start extraction the same day if water is inside. Turn around, don’t drown on low-water crossings west of Fort Worth and through the Hill Country.

What this is not

This is not a regional derecho and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. National Hurricane Center products overnight included hurricane conditions in offshore waters of southwest Mexico, not a new U.S. land threat. Polo’s remnants are already in the Plains pattern. The work this morning, where it verifies, is scattered: a tornado survey in central Kansas, pole and roof calls in west Texas, and flooded intersections where the Southern Plains rain shield sits. That is the local-storm pattern this desk should staff.

Looking ahead

SPC’s Day 4–8 outlook, issued 4:00 a.m. CDT, does not flag an organized severe episode for the next several days. A large surface high dominates from the Mississippi Valley to the East Coast early next week. An isolated severe chance returns to the conversation around Tuesday from western Kansas into north-central Nebraska as a front drops southeast, then shifts toward the mid-Missouri Valley Wednesday. That is not today’s desk. WPC already flags a Slight excessive-rainfall risk on parts of the Southern Plains for Friday, and a Slight from the central Gulf Coast through the Lower Mississippi Valley into the Southern Appalachians on Saturday. Watch the afternoon Storm Tracker update rather than assuming the morning Quiet Pulse holds if a warning cluster fires on the Texas rain shield.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Convective Outlook, 1300 UTC Thursday, October 1, 2026, and the 0100 UTC and 0600 UTC updates; SPC current watches page (no watches valid; Watch 675 and Watch 676 expired); SPC preliminary local storm reports for September 30 and October 1; NWS Wichita event summary for the September 30 central Kansas tornadoes; Weather Prediction Center short-range forecast discussion, 2:52 a.m. EDT October 1, and the Day 1 excessive-rainfall outlook covering the overnight Moderate on the Plains and Corn Belt. Prior desk: Wednesday, September 30 afternoon storm updates.

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watches, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

October 1, 2026

Storm Updates: Kansas Tornado Window, West Texas Wind Slight — Wednesday, September 30, 2026

Wednesday afternoon desk. The organized severe work is on the Plains, not the coasts. As of Wednesday, September 30, 2026, the Storm Prediction Center 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook still holds a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms across portions of the southern and central Plains. No convective watches are currently valid. Two mesoscale discussions are live with watches possible. The Weather Prediction Center still holds Moderate Risks of excessive rainfall across portions of the central and southern Plains and the Corn Belt.

These are county- and ZIP-scale thunderstorms and flash-flood corridors. No named tropical cyclone is threatening U.S. land this afternoon. Restoration exposure is wind-driven roof and tree work from southwest Oklahoma into west Texas tonight, a conditional brief-tornado window on the Kansas warm front this evening, and interior water where cells train on already-wet ground from the Red River Valley toward Omaha and Des Moines. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What is live this afternoon

SPC’s 1630 UTC outlook (issued 11:26 a.m. CDT, valid 1630 UTC Wednesday through 1200 UTC Thursday) keeps two Slight Risk areas: central and eastern Kansas into far southeast Nebraska, and southwest Oklahoma / northwest Texas through the Edwards Plateau. Combined Slight coverage is about 83,861 square miles and 1.63 million people, with Topeka, Abilene, Wichita Falls, Lawton, and San Angelo on the population list. A broader Marginal wraps San Antonio, Dallas, Austin, Fort Worth, and Oklahoma City. Forecasters Mosier and Chalmers: a few tornadoes and localized wind damage are possible across Kansas and possibly far southeast Nebraska this afternoon and evening. Severe wind gusts, some hail, and a brief tornado are also expected from west Texas into southwest Oklahoma this afternoon into tonight.

No Storm Prediction Center convective watches are currently valid. The watch page, updated 2000 UTC Wednesday, still lists Watch 674 as the most recently issued product. That watch is not in effect this afternoon. Two mesoscale discussions are the live signal instead.

Mesoscale Discussion 2337, issued 2:21 p.m. CDT for portions of central Kansas into extreme northern Oklahoma, is tagged Severe potential… Watch possible, with a 60 percent probability of watch issuance. SPC says a few of the stronger storms may produce brief tornadoes, and that a Tornado Watch will likely be needed at some point in the next few hours. Timing is the open question because storm evolution is expected to be slow.

Mesoscale Discussion 2338, issued 2:56 p.m. CDT for portions of western Texas, is tagged Severe potential… Watch possible, with a 40 percent probability of watch issuance. SPC expects at least a few severe gusts and a couple instances of hail if storms increase in coverage and intensity. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch may be needed. Peak wind in that discussion is 55–70 mph. Peak hail is up to 1.25 inches.

WPC’s Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 0800 UTC Wednesday, valid 12Z Wednesday–12Z Thursday) keeps Moderate Risk language on two corridors: the Front Range into the southern Plains, and the central Plains into the Corn Belt. HREF neighborhood probabilities for more than 3 inches remain 60–90 percent from the Lower Trans Pecos to the central Red River Valley. The Corn Belt footprint is still 2–4 inches, locally around 6 inches, from northern Kansas toward Omaha and Des Moines generally south of I-80.

Hotspot 1 — Central and eastern Kansas into far southeast Nebraska

This is the tornado-window corridor. SPC places the peak around 21Z to 00Z (4 p.m. to 7 p.m. CDT). Cloud cover is expected to linger, so most destabilization is from low-level moisture advection, not full heating. Low-70s dewpoints are forecast over much of central and eastern Kansas by late afternoon. RAP guidance in the 1630 UTC package shows 0–1 km storm-relative helicity of 150–200 m²/s². MD 2337 adds 200–300 m²/s² of 0–3 km SRH along the warm front and the Oklahoma–Kansas border, with backed surface flow. Tornadoes in this kind of tropical, poor-lapse-rate airmass are typically brief. SPC still treats a few longer-duration updrafts as possible.

Cities and counties to watch: Topeka under the Slight list; Wichita under the Marginal wrap; I-70 and Kansas River counties; the state-line counties toward Omaha. Today’s first LSR on the 12Z-to-12Z board is a storm-chaser video report 3 miles south-southwest of Ash Valley in Pawnee County, Kansas, at 2049 UTC (3:49 p.m. CDT). That is a live-cell report, not a damage survey.

Restoration read: tornado plus training rain. A brief tornado is a narrow swath — staff it as a local damage survey. The same warm front is a water job if cells repeat. Do not send one crew to a wind ticket and a flooded basement without checking which county has a warning now.

Hotspot 2 — Southwest Oklahoma, northwest Texas, Edwards Plateau

This remains the higher-confidence wind corridor. Low-70s dewpoints cover much of the southern Plains warm sector. Primary development is expected this evening along modest surface troughing south of the surface low moving into Kansas. An initially supercellular mode is possible from southwest Oklahoma into northwest Texas and the Edwards Plateau, where MLCAPE can reach near or above 1,500 J/kg. Front-parallel flow then favors a linear mode. Severe gusts are the most likely hazard. Isolated hail is more plausible across southwest Texas. A localized brief tornado threat can increase in the evening as effective storm-relative helicity rises.

MD 2338 is the afternoon trigger for western Texas. Surface temperatures there have reached the upper 80s to 90 F. Storms should start multicellular, then become linear as they overspread a dry boundary layer. Cities and counties: Lawton, Wichita Falls, Abilene, San Angelo, the Edwards Plateau counties under the Slight contour, and Midland on the Marginal fringe. An isolated severe threat could linger into parts of central Texas and Oklahoma overnight before buoyancy collapses east of the front.

Restoration read: wind first, water second. Stage tarps, generators, and tree crews before evening initiation, not after the first warning. If a line trains on already-wet ground, treat the same ZIP as a water job by morning.

Hotspot 3 — Southern Rockies, Front Range, and the Corn Belt flood overlay

WPC keeps a Moderate flood risk from the Sangre de Cristos and San Juan Range into the Front Range as northeasterly upslope persists on the northwest side of the surface low. Antecedent wet soils raise the flash-flood probability. Additional 2–4 inches, locally higher, remains the working range, with a second heavy period this evening as the surface low intensifies.

Farther northeast, the Corn Belt Moderate still sits on a southwest-to-northeast axis from northern Kansas through Omaha into Des Moines, generally south of I-80. Hourly rates of 1–2 inches in the better cores, with repeating action on the warm front. North of the warm front the rates drop. That is urban streets, low-water crossings, and small streams first — then finished basements if the same cell trains twice.

Just hit

Today’s 12Z-to-12Z LSR board had been empty until the Pawnee County, Kansas chaser report at 2049 UTC. That is the only official today-board entry as of this desk. Last night’s tickets still stand: a social-media tornado 3 miles south-southeast of Claude in Armstrong County, Texas, at 0012 UTC Tuesday evening; a tornado 7 miles west-northwest of Timbercreek Canyon in Randall County, Texas, at 0245 UTC; 67 mph at Roswell Air Center in Chaves County, New Mexico; 60 mph 2 miles northeast of Roswell; and 65 mph 6 miles west-northwest of Denver City in Yoakum County, Texas. Those are preliminary reports, not damage surveys.

No named tropical cyclone threatens U.S. land this afternoon. NHC is issuing advisories on Hurricane Rachel well south-southwest of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico, Tropical Storm Nolo several hundred miles west of Lihue, Hawaii, and Tropical Depression Nineteen-E over the western East Pacific. Hanna is a remnant low in the central subtropical Atlantic. None of those are a CONUS restoration staffing problem today.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS / WPC level	Status this afternoon
Central/eastern KS into SE NE	Brief tornadoes, localized wind, training rain	SPC Slight + MD 2337 (watch possible, 60%)	Peak 4–7 p.m. CDT; no watch yet
SW OK / NW TX / Edwards Plateau	Severe wind, isolated hail, brief tornado	SPC Slight + MD 2338 west TX (watch possible, 40%)	Evening initiation
Red River Valley / west-central TX	Flash flood, merging clusters	WPC Moderate	Late afternoon into Thursday morning
KS–Omaha–Des Moines (south of I-80)	Flash flood, 1–2 in/hr cores	WPC Moderate	Afternoon through overnight
Southern Rockies / Front Range	Upslope heavy rain, flash flood	WPC Moderate	Evening pulse still live
Pawnee County, KS	Live-cell chaser report	Today’s LSR board	2049 UTC / 3:49 p.m. CDT
TX Panhandle / Chaves County NM	Tornado and wind LSRs from Tuesday night	Yesterday’s Marginal	Just-hit / survey
Atlantic / East Pacific vs. U.S. mainland	No landfalling hurricane	Rachel / Nolo / Hanna offshore	Quiet on the mainland coast

What this means for restoration teams

A Slight Risk is not a watch and not a warning. MD 2337 and MD 2338 are the afternoon products that say a watch may still come. Wind at severe criteria is roof, siding, gutter, and tree-on-structure work. A brief tornado, if one occurs in Kansas or on the Edwards Plateau, is a narrow swath. Heavy rain on the two Moderate flood corridors is extraction the same night and a mold clock by Friday.

For teams in central Kansas, southwest Oklahoma, and northwest Texas: stage before the 21Z–00Z window, not after the first warning. Property owners should photograph damage in remaining daylight only if it is safe, call the carrier, and start extraction the same night if water is inside. Turn around, don’t drown on the Front Range and Corn Belt crossings.

What this is not

This is not a regional derecho and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. Rachel is off western Mexico. Nolo is west of Kauai. Hanna is a remnant low in the central Atlantic. The work today, if it verifies, will be scattered: a wind swath through a Texas or Oklahoma county, a brief tornado on the Kansas warm front, a flooded intersection where cells train on the Red River or south of I-80. That is the local-storm pattern this desk should staff.

Looking ahead

The next Day 1 outlook is scheduled by 2000 UTC. SPC Day 2 (1730 UTC package, valid 12Z Thursday–12Z Friday) drops to a Marginal over portions of Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas for isolated severe wind Thursday afternoon and evening. Watches, if they come tonight, will most likely fire on the Kansas warm front first, then western Texas if coverage increases. Watch the next Storm Tracker update rather than assuming this afternoon’s empty watch list is the last line of the day.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center Sep 30, 2026 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook; SPC Mesoscale Discussions 2337 and 2338; SPC current convective watches page (no watches valid as of 2000 UTC Wednesday); SPC local storm reports for 20260930 (Pawnee County, Kansas) and 20260929 (overnight Panhandle and New Mexico); Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook updated 0800 UTC Wednesday; National Hurricane Center public pages for Rachel, Nolo, Hanna, and Nineteen-E. Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watch, MD, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay.

Morning desk: Storm Updates: Southern Plains Slight Risk, Kansas Tornado Window — Wednesday, September 30, 2026 (Morning).

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

September 30, 2026

Storm Updates: Southern Plains Slight Risk, Kansas Tornado Window — Wednesday, September 30, 2026 (Morning)

This is a live Wednesday morning snapshot of U.S. local-storm activity as of Wednesday, September 30, 2026. The organized desk is back on the Plains. The Storm Prediction Center 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook holds a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms across portions of the southern and central Plains. No convective watches are currently valid. The Weather Prediction Center holds Moderate Risks of excessive rainfall across portions of the central and southern Plains and the Corn Belt.

These are county- and ZIP-scale thunderstorms and flash-flood corridors, not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. The National Hurricane Center’s last advisory on Polo said the remnants dissipated over northwestern Mexico. Restoration exposure today is wind-driven roof and tree work on the southern Plains this afternoon and evening, a conditional tornado window on the Kansas warm front, and interior water where cells train on already-wet ground. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What is live this morning

SPC’s 1300 UTC outlook (issued 7:57 a.m. CDT, valid 1300 UTC Wednesday through 1200 UTC Thursday) upgrades Day 1 to a Slight Risk over about 82,000 square miles covering parts of southwest Oklahoma, northwest Texas, the Edwards Plateau, and a separate corridor through central and eastern Kansas into far southeast Nebraska. A broader Marginal wraps Fort Worth, Oklahoma City, Wichita, Norman, and Midland. Forecasters Guyer and Bentley: thunderstorms capable of severe wind gusts, some hail, and a brief tornado are expected across the southern Plains this afternoon into tonight. A few tornadoes and localized wind damage are also possible across Kansas and possibly far southeast Nebraska.

No Storm Prediction Center convective watches are currently valid. The watch page last listed Watch 674 as the most recently issued product; that watch is not today’s product and is not in effect this morning. Any new watch this afternoon would be a new number. Today’s SPC local-storm-report board (1200 UTC Wednesday through 1159 UTC Thursday) is empty as of this desk. That is expected before the diurnal window.

WPC’s Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 0800 UTC Wednesday, valid 12Z Wednesday–12Z Thursday) keeps Moderate Risk language on two corridors: the Front Range into the southern Plains, and the central Plains into the Corn Belt. HREF neighborhood probabilities for more than 3 inches run 60–90 percent from the Lower Trans Pecos to the central Red River Valley, with a 2–4 inch, locally 6 inch footprint from northern Kansas toward Omaha and Des Moines south of I-80.

Overnight into this morning

Tuesday night’s 12Z-to-12Z LSR board is the just-hit file. Two tornado reports came in from the Texas Panhandle after midnight UTC: a social-media video tornado 3 miles south-southeast of Claude in Armstrong County at 0012 UTC (7:12 p.m. CDT Tuesday), position estimated via radar by NWS Amarillo; and a tornado 7 miles west-northwest of Timbercreek Canyon in Randall County at 0245 UTC (9:45 p.m. CDT), reported south of State Highway 335 west of I-27, on the ground 3–4 minutes and then roped out. Those are preliminary reports, not damage surveys.

Severe wind also verified on the same night: 67 mph at Roswell Air Center (KROW) in Chaves County, New Mexico, at 0033 UTC; 60 mph 2 miles northeast of Roswell at 0037 UTC; and 65 mph 6 miles west-northwest of Denver City in Yoakum County, Texas, at 0324 UTC, with additional measured gusts near 59 mph around 10:22 p.m. CDT. No hail reports were logged on that board. Tuesday afternoon’s Storm Tracker already had the Southwest flood-and-Marginal frame; last night added the Panhandle tornado and New Mexico/west Texas wind tickets.

Hotspot 1 — Southwest Oklahoma, northwest Texas, Edwards Plateau

This is the higher-confidence diurnal severe corridor. SPC expects early-day convection across the southern Plains to weaken or shift north by early afternoon, then redevelop late afternoon into evening ahead of the approaching mid/upper-level low. Heating of a very moist airmass should push MLCAPE near or above 1,500 J/kg from southwest Oklahoma into northwest Texas and the Edwards Plateau despite poor mid-level lapse rates. Supercells are possible at first. Front-parallel flow and increasing coverage favor a more linear mode with time. Strong to severe gusts are the most likely hazard. Isolated hail is more plausible across southwest Texas. A localized brief tornado threat can increase in the evening as effective storm-relative helicity rises in the moist environment.

Cities and counties to watch: Lawton, Wichita Falls, Abilene, San Angelo, Midland on the Marginal fringe, and the Edwards Plateau counties that sit under the Slight contour. An isolated severe threat could linger into parts of central Texas and Oklahoma overnight before buoyancy collapses east of the front.

Restoration read: wind first, water second. Stage tarps, generators, and tree crews before the late-afternoon initiation, not after the first warning. If a line trains on already-wet ground, treat the same ZIP as a water job by morning.

Hotspot 2 — Central and eastern Kansas into far southeast Nebraska

SPC upgraded this corridor on the 1300 UTC package. A rather strong low-level jet (50-plus knots diurnally) is forecast to shift northeast across central and eastern Kansas into western Missouri and southeast Nebraska or southwest Iowa by evening. Destabilization near the warm front may stay weak because of clouds, ongoing rain, and poor mid-level lapse rates. The upgrade is about 0–1 km and 0–3 km wind profiles that stay supercell-conducive even if CAPE stays muted. Multiple tornadoes are treated as a viable possibility, not a high-confidence outbreak.

Cities to watch: Topeka under the Slight population list; Wichita under the Marginal wrap; the I-70 and Kansas River counties; the Nebraska state-line counties toward Omaha. Flood Watch language was already in play overnight for parts of north-central and northeast Kansas through Thursday afternoon, with 2–4 inches widespread and locally around 6 inches in the wetter cores.

Restoration read: this is the tornado-and-water overlap. A brief tornado is a narrow swath — staff it as a local damage survey. Training rain on the same warm front is wet drywall and a 24–48 hour mold clock. Do not send the same crew to a wind ticket and a flooded basement without checking which county actually has a warning now.

Hotspot 3 — Southern Rockies, Front Range, and the Corn Belt flood overlay

WPC keeps a Moderate flood risk from the Sangre de Cristos and San Juan Range into the Front Range as northeasterly upslope persists on the northwest side of the surface low. Antecedent wet soils raise the flash-flood probability. Additional 2–4 inches, locally higher, is the working range, with two heavy periods: morning and again in the evening as the surface low intensifies.

Farther northeast, the Corn Belt Moderate sits on a southwest-to-northeast axis from northern Kansas through Omaha into Des Moines, generally south of I-80. Hourly rates of 1–2 inches in the better cores, with some repeating action on the warm front. North of the warm front the rates drop and the flash-flood signal cuts off. That is urban streets, low-water crossings, and small streams first — then finished basements if the same cell trains twice.

Just hit

Claude and Randall County, Texas, tornado reports and the Roswell / Denver City wind gusts are last night’s tickets. They sit under yesterday’s Marginal from southern and eastern New Mexico into west Texas. Today’s new work, if it verifies, is farther east and north: the southwest Oklahoma–northwest Texas–Edwards Plateau wind corridor, the Kansas warm-front tornado window, and the Moderate flood footprints on the southern Plains and the Kansas–Nebraska–Iowa axis.

Polo is not a U.S. landfall desk this morning. NHC’s last forecast/advisory (number 38, 0300 UTC Wednesday) placed the remnants near 30.5°N 108.0°W over northwestern Mexico and forecast dissipation by 12Z Wednesday. Hanna is an open-Atlantic tropical storm well east of the mainland. Neither is a restoration staffing problem for the CONUS this morning.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS / WPC level	Status this morning
SW OK / NW TX / Edwards Plateau	Severe wind, isolated hail, brief tornado	SPC Slight	Afternoon–tonight initiation
Central/eastern KS into SE NE	A few tornadoes, localized wind, training rain	SPC Slight + WPC Moderate flood	Conditional; no watch yet
Red River Valley / west-central TX	Flash flood, merging clusters	WPC Moderate	Late afternoon into Thursday morning
KS–Omaha–Des Moines (south of I-80)	Flash flood, 1–2 in/hr cores	WPC Moderate	Afternoon through overnight
Southern Rockies / Front Range	Upslope heavy rain, flash flood	WPC Moderate	Morning and evening pulses
TX Panhandle / Chaves County NM	Tornado and wind LSRs from Tuesday night	Yesterday’s Marginal	Just-hit / survey
Atlantic / East Pacific vs. U.S. mainland	No landfalling hurricane	Polo dissipated over NW Mexico	Quiet on the mainland coast

What this means for restoration teams

A Slight Risk is not a watch and not a warning. It is the afternoon and evening probability field. Wind at severe criteria is roof, siding, gutter, and tree-on-structure work. A brief tornado, if one occurs in Kansas or on the Edwards Plateau, is a narrow swath. Heavy rain on the two Moderate flood corridors is extraction the same night and a mold clock by Friday.

For teams in southwest Oklahoma, northwest Texas, and the Kansas warm-front counties: stage before mid-afternoon local, not after the first Severe Thunderstorm Warning. Property owners should photograph damage in remaining daylight only if it is safe, call the carrier, and start extraction the same night if water is inside. Turn around, don’t drown on the Front Range and Corn Belt crossings.

What this is not

This is not a regional derecho and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. Polo is gone over northwestern Mexico. Hanna is in the central Atlantic. The work today, if it comes, will be scattered: a wind swath through a Texas or Oklahoma county, a brief tornado on the Kansas warm front, a flooded intersection where cells train on the Red River or south of I-80. That is the local-storm pattern this desk should staff.

Looking ahead

The next Day 1 outlook is scheduled by 1630 UTC. Day 2 on the SPC page is already a Marginal. Watches, if they come, will most likely fire late afternoon on the southern Plains and early evening on the Kansas warm front. Watch the next Storm Tracker update rather than assuming this morning’s empty watch list is the last line of the day.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center Sep 30, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook; SPC current convective watches page (no watches valid as of 1313 UTC Wednesday); SPC local storm reports for 20260929 (overnight) and 20260930 (today, empty after 12Z); Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook updated 0800 UTC Wednesday; National Hurricane Center remnants of Polo forecast/advisory 38. Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watch, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay.

Prior desk: Storm Updates: Southwest Flood Moderate, New Mexico–West Texas Marginal — Tuesday, September 29, 2026.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

September 30, 2026

Storm Updates: Southwest Flood Moderate, New Mexico–West Texas Marginal — Tuesday, September 29, 2026

Tuesday afternoon desk. Water still owns the Southwest. A Marginal severe corridor is open from southeast Arizona across southern and eastern New Mexico into west Texas. Not an NWS warning. This is a live Tuesday afternoon snapshot of U.S. local-storm activity as of Tuesday, September 29, 2026. The Storm Prediction Center 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook, issued 2:45 PM CDT, holds a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms from southern Arizona across southern and eastern New Mexico into west Texas. Isolated severe gusts and possibly a tornado or two remain the official language for this afternoon into tonight. No Severe Thunderstorm Watch or Tornado Watch is valid. Mesoscale Discussion 2333, issued 3:06 PM CDT for south-central into southeastern New Mexico, flags a sparse isolated gust or brief tornado and says a watch is unlikely.

The Weather Prediction Center still carries a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall on portions of the Southwest and Four Corners after a late-Monday special Day 1 update trimmed the outline over western and northern Arizona into southern Utah. Restoration exposure this afternoon is interior water on already-saturated soils, wash and burn-scar flooding, trees and service drops on isolated severe gusts, and a narrow tornado swath if a cell organizes over southeastern New Mexico or west Texas. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What is live this afternoon

No convective watches are in effect as of the SPC watch page update at 21:04 UTC on Tuesday, September 29, 2026. The last issued watch number on that page is 0674 and it is not valid now. Today’s official Local Storm Report board covering 12Z Tuesday through 12Z Wednesday shows no tornado, hail, or wind reports as of this desk.

The 20Z update left severe probabilities unchanged. SPC expects thunderstorm coverage to increase this afternoon and evening as the remnant core of Polo moves northeast into the southern High Plains, likely in a complex or linear mode. Locally greater potential sits over southeastern New Mexico into West Texas, where less cloud cover allowed stronger heating through mid-afternoon. Population centers inside the Day 1 Marginal include El Paso, Tucson, Lubbock, Amarillo, and Midland.

National Hurricane Center Tropical Storm Polo Advisory 37, 2:00 PM MST Tuesday, September 29, 2026: the center was near 29.0°N, 109.7°W, about 275 miles southwest of El Paso, moving northeast at 21 mph with 65 mph maximum sustained winds and 992 mb pressure. Coastal watches and warnings for Mexico have been discontinued. Interests in northwestern Mexico, southern New Mexico, and far western Texas should keep watching the remnant. Polo is not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. NHC notes a Wind Advisory is in effect for portions of southern New Mexico and far western Texas for gusty remnant winds late today and tonight.

Hotspot 1 — Four Corners / Southwest flood pulse

This is still the water desk. WPC language supports a Moderate Risk of 1-to-6-hour rainfall exceeding flash-flood guidance over parts of the Southwest. The late-Monday 2200 UTC special update cut back Moderate coverage over western and northern Arizona into southern Utah after convection there stayed more scattered and instability stayed limited. Intense rates were then focused along a compact warm-conveyor axis over far southeastern California, the Arizona–Nevada border, and southwest Utah, plus a smaller pocket over southeast Arizona and southwest New Mexico downstream of Polo. Outside those pockets much of the rain over Arizona and New Mexico had been stratiform. Wet soils, burn scars, slot canyons, and south- and west-facing slopes along the Mogollon Rim and the San Juans still favor flooding even if the Moderate category is on the low end of that contour.

Cities and counties to watch: Kingman, Bullhead City, Laughlin, Colorado City, Hildale, Flagstaff and Mogollon Rim drainages, Lordsburg country and the Sacramento Mountains in New Mexico, and flashy drainages in southern Utah. Overnight Flash Flood Warnings on that corridor — Hildale and Short Creek, Colorado City and northern Mohave, the Laughlin–Kingman–Bullhead line, and pieces of San Bernardino and Clark counties — are yesterday-into-this-morning water, not a new afternoon watch.

Restoration read: extraction and drying first. Treat burn-scar and wash flooding as a same-night water job if rain is still falling on the same ZIP. Photograph only if it is safe. Do not drive flooded washes.

Hotspot 2 — Southeastern New Mexico into West Texas

This is the afternoon severe window inside the SPC Marginal. MD 2333 covers south-central into southeastern New Mexico, valid 2006–2130 UTC Tuesday. A small QLCS segment was intensifying on KHDX and MRMS as it approached a destabilizing airmass with surface temperatures in the 70s F, dewpoints in the 60s F, and more than 500 J/kg MLCAPE. Effective bulk shear over 40 kt, much of it in the lowest 3 km, leaves room for embedded mesovortices. Official MD language: an isolated severe gust or a brief tornado is possible through the remainder of the afternoon; the threat should stay sparse; watch issuance probability 5 percent. Most probable peak gust in that discussion is up to 60 mph; most probable peak tornado intensity is listed as up to 90 mph if one occurs.

Farther east, west Texas is the part of the Marginal that had more heating. Storm mode should trend complex or linear as Polo’s remnant and the low-level jet interact after 00Z. A brief tornado and strong gusts can ride any organized, persistent structure. That is still isolated, not a Slight Risk.

Restoration read: wind and water on the same ticket. Stage tarps and extractors for the South Plains and Permian Basin before late afternoon. A brief tornado, if one occurs, is a narrow swath — staff it as a local damage survey, not a regional event.

Hotspot 3 — Southeast Arizona and the Tucson–Phoenix moisture axis

Southern Arizona stays inside the same Day 1 Marginal. Mid-to-upper-60s dewpoints were analyzed from the international border into the Phoenix vicinity this morning, with long hodographs and 30 to 40 kt of low- and mid-level southwesterly flow. Widespread showers and thunderstorms continue under limited heating and weak tropical lapse rates. Weak or transient supercells and later convective bands can still produce strong gusts. This is not the higher-end part of the corridor compared with southeastern New Mexico and West Texas this afternoon, but Tucson sits inside the official risk area.

Restoration read: water first, wind second. Urban street flooding and isolated tree damage are the likely tickets, not a metro-wide wind event.

Just hit

Today’s 12Z-cycle LSR board is empty. The last 24 hours that already look like tickets sit on Monday’s 12Z-to-12Z page: 77 mph near Kenel and 71 mph near Pollock in Campbell County, South Dakota; 1.00-inch hail and a 60 mph gust 10 miles north of Belle Fourche in Butte County, South Dakota; power lines down near New Kingman-Butler in Mohave County, Arizona. Overnight Flash Flood Warnings on the Arizona–Utah–Nevada border country and a separate Fargo–Moorhead warning with up to two inches already down are water aftermath, not this afternoon’s new severe reports.

Tropical Storm Rachel remains offshore of southwestern Mexico and is not a U.S. land threat this afternoon. Hurricane Nolo is a Central Pacific / Hawaii desk. Neither is this Storm Tracker’s mainland corridor.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS / WPC level	Status this afternoon
Four Corners / SW AZ–UT–NM	Flash flood, burn-scar and wash flooding	WPC Moderate excessive rainfall	Live flood pulse; Moderate trimmed on the northwest edge
SE New Mexico / West Texas	Isolated severe gust, brief tornado possible, heavy rain	SPC Marginal + MD 2333	Afternoon–tonight window; watch unlikely
Southeast Arizona / Tucson corridor	Strong gusts, heavy rain	SPC Marginal	Ongoing showers; limited heating
Eastern Dakotas / NW Minnesota	Training heavy rain	WPC Slight / Marginal ERO (prior discussion)	Fargo–Moorhead just-hit water
Western/central Dakotas (Monday)	Severe gusts, small hail	Expired Marginal + LSRs	Aftermath
U.S. mainland coast vs. tropics	No landfalling hurricane	Polo a TS inland over Sonora	Quiet on the mainland coast

What this means for restoration teams

The Southwest Moderate Risk is wet drywall, silt near washes, and a 24–48 hour mold clock on buildings that took water overnight. Southeastern New Mexico and west Texas are a wind-first desk if the QLCS or a discrete cell organizes, with water on the same ZIPs if cells train. Monday night’s Campbell County gusts are already a roof-and-siding ticket. Mohave County lines-down is already a tree-and-drop ticket.

For teams near the SPC Marginal: stage before late afternoon local, not after the first warning. Property owners should photograph damage in daylight if it is safe, call the carrier, and start extraction the same night if water is inside. Turn around, don’t drown remains the flood rule on every wash in the Moderate Risk.

What this is not

This is not a regional derecho and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. Polo is a Mexico inland tropical storm whose remnant moisture and shear are already inside the Southwest and southern High Plains forecast. MD 2333 is explicit that the New Mexico severe threat should stay sparse and that a watch is unlikely. The work today, if it comes, will be scattered: a flooded wash in Mohave or Washington County, a wind swath through a southeastern New Mexico or west Texas county, leftover urban water in Fargo. That is the local-storm pattern this desk should staff.

Looking ahead

Wednesday’s SPC Day 2 Convective Outlook already draws a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of the southern Plains, with damaging wind, hail, and perhaps a tornado or two from west-central Texas into southwest Oklahoma as an upper low and dryline organize. Isolated severe gusts and hail may also occur from western and central Kansas into far southern Nebraska. Thursday stays Marginal over parts of the southern Plains. Watch the next Storm Tracker update rather than assuming today’s Marginal is the last line of the week.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources dated Tuesday, September 29, 2026: NOAA Storm Prediction Center 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook (Chalmers/Thornton; prior Guyer/Bentley discussion); Mesoscale Discussion 2333 (Squitieri/Mosier); SPC current watches page (no watches valid; last issued 0674); SPC today and 28 September preliminary local storm reports; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (Hurley/Wegman 2200 UTC update and prior Campbell/Pereira discussion); National Hurricane Center Tropical Storm Polo Advisory 37, 2:00 PM MST; National Weather Service warning text via the national watches/warnings feed.

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watch, MD, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay. Morning desk for this calendar day: Storm Updates: Southwest Flood Moderate, West Texas Marginal — Tuesday, September 29, 2026 (Morning).

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

September 29, 2026

Storm Updates: Southwest Flood Moderate, West Texas Marginal — Tuesday, September 29, 2026 (Morning)

This is a live Tuesday morning snapshot of local storm-type events across the United States as of Tuesday, September 29, 2026. Water still owns the Southwest. The Weather Prediction Center holds a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall over portions of the Four Corners country, after overnight flash-flood warnings from southwestern Utah and Mohave County, Arizona, through the Laughlin–Kingman corridor. The Storm Prediction Center 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook draws a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms across southern Arizona and New Mexico into west Texas. No SPC watches or mesoscale discussions were in effect as of mid-morning UTC.

These are county- and ZIP-scale thunderstorms and flash-flood pulses, not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. Hurricane Polo is crossing the Gulf of California into Sonora and is forecast to weaken over the mountains of northern Mexico. Its mid-level remnant is the moisture and shear that keep the Southwest wet and give west Texas a localized tornado and damaging-gust window this afternoon and evening. Restoration exposure today is interior water on already-saturated soils, wash and burn-scar flooding, trees and service drops on isolated severe gusts, and a narrow tornado swath if a cell organizes over eastern New Mexico or the South Plains. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What is live this morning

No Severe Thunderstorm Watch or Tornado Watch is valid. Overnight Severe Thunderstorm Warnings on the northern Plains have expired. The live national products this morning are the SPC Marginal Risk from southeast Arizona through southern and eastern New Mexico into west Texas, and the WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook with a Moderate Risk still parked on the Southwest.

A mid/upper-level low and trough are moving across the Desert Southwest. Polo’s remnant mid-level circulation is expected to phase with that trough, helping a surface low consolidate over eastern New Mexico and west Texas tonight. Widespread convection is already ongoing on that moisture axis and is expected to continue through the afternoon and overnight. Poor mid-level lapse rates from the tropical remnant will cap how severe the storms get, but increasing deep-layer shear and a strengthening low-level jet later today leave room for organized linear segments and a few episodic supercells.

Hotspot 1 — Four Corners / Southwest flood pulse

This is the water desk. WPC language still supports a Moderate Risk of rainfall exceeding flash-flood guidance over parts of Arizona, southern Utah, New Mexico, and adjacent high country, with a predecessor rainfall event still working off tropical moisture. Antecedent soils are wet. Burn scars, slot canyons, and south- and west-facing slopes along the Mogollon Rim and the San Juans remain the first failures. Overnight Flash Flood Warnings covered Hildale and the Short Creek watershed in southwestern Utah, Colorado City and northern Mohave County, the Laughlin–Kingman–Bullhead City corridor, and pieces of San Bernardino and Clark counties. A separate overnight Flash Flood Warning hit the Fargo–Moorhead metro with up to two inches already down and additional rain possible.

Cities and counties to watch: Kingman, Bullhead City, Laughlin, Colorado City, Hildale, Flagstaff and Mogollon Rim drainages, the Lordsburg and Sacramento Mountains country in New Mexico, and saturated drainages in southern Utah. Fargo and Moorhead are yesterday-into-this-morning water, not the Moderate Risk core.

Hotspot 2 — Southeast Arizona through eastern New Mexico into west Texas

This is the SPC Marginal. Isolated severe gusts and possibly a tornado or two are the official Day 1 language for this afternoon into tonight from southern and eastern New Mexico into west Texas, with southeast Arizona included on the same corridor. Population centers inside the risk area include El Paso, Tucson, Lubbock, Amarillo, Midland, Odessa, and Roswell. Storm mode should trend complex or linear as coverage increases, with a few supercells possible when shear and the low-level jet increase later today.

NWS South Plains and Panhandle hazardous-weather outlooks this morning already flag multiple rounds of heavy showers and thunderstorms, flash-flood potential where cells train, wind gusts up to about 70 mph, and a brief tornado or two. Flood Watches are in play on parts of the southwestern Texas Panhandle and northwest South Plains.

Hotspot 3 — Northern Plains leftover and Dakotas flood slight

Monday evening’s Marginal Risk over the western and central Dakotas and central High Plains has expired. Preliminary SPC local storm reports from that window include a 77 mph gust near Kenel and a 71 mph gust near Pollock in Campbell County, South Dakota, plus 1.00-inch hail north of Belle Fourche. Those are just-hit wind and hail tickets, not a live watch.

WPC still carries a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over portions of the eastern Dakotas into northwestern Minnesota, with a Marginal Risk from northern South Dakota through North Dakota and far northwest Minnesota. That is training showers on a southerly low-level jet, not a severe-watch corridor.

Just hit

Overnight and yesterday evening: flash flooding on the Arizona–Utah–Nevada border country and in the Fargo–Moorhead area; power lines down near New Kingman-Butler in Mohave County; severe gusts in Campbell County, South Dakota. Monday afternoon’s desk already had the Southwest water story in view. Today’s new work, if it verifies, is more Four Corners flooding plus the west Texas–eastern New Mexico Marginal window this afternoon and tonight.

Hurricane Polo is not a U.S. landfall. Tropical Storms Fay and Hanna are well out in the open Atlantic. Tropical Storm Rachel is offshore of southwestern Mexico. None of those systems is a mainland U.S. hurricane threat this morning.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS / WPC level	Status this morning
Four Corners / SW AZ–UT–NM	Flash flood, burn-scar and wash flooding	WPC Moderate excessive rainfall	Live flood pulse; overnight FFWs expired or rolling
SE Arizona / E New Mexico / west Texas	Damaging gusts, brief tornado possible, heavy rain	SPC Marginal	Afternoon–tonight window; no watch yet
SW Texas Panhandle / South Plains	Training rain, isolated severe	Flood Watch + local HWO	Today into tonight
Eastern Dakotas / NW Minnesota	Training heavy rain	WPC Slight / Marginal ERO	Showers; Fargo–Moorhead just-hit water
Western/central Dakotas (overnight)	Severe gusts, small hail	Expired Marginal + LSRs	Aftermath
Atlantic / Gulf vs. U.S. mainland	No landfalling hurricane	Polo weakening over Sonora	Quiet on the mainland coast

What this means for restoration teams

The Southwest Moderate Risk is wet drywall, silt in structures near washes, and a 24–48 hour mold clock on buildings that took water overnight. West Texas and eastern New Mexico are a wind-first desk if storms organize, with water on the same ZIPs if cells train. Dakotas gusts from last evening are already a roof-and-siding ticket in the counties that verified.

For teams near the SPC Marginal: stage before mid-afternoon local, not after the first warning. Property owners should photograph damage in daylight if it is safe, call the carrier, and start extraction the same night if water is inside. Turn around, don’t drown remains the flood rule on every wash in the Moderate Risk.

What this is not

This is not a regional derecho and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. Polo is a Mexico landfall whose remnant moisture is already inside the Southwest forecast. The work today, if it comes, will be scattered: a flooded wash in Mohave or Washington County, a wind swath through a west Texas or eastern New Mexico county, leftover urban water in Fargo. That is the local-storm pattern this desk should staff.

Looking ahead

Wednesday’s SPC Day 2 outlook already draws a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of the southern Plains, with damaging wind, hail, and perhaps a tornado or two from west-central Texas into southwest Oklahoma as the upper low and dryline organize. Thursday stays Marginal over parts of the southern Plains. Watch the next Storm Tracker update rather than assuming today’s Marginal is the last line of the week.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center Sep 29, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook (Guyer/Bentley); SPC preliminary local storm reports for 28–29 September; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (Hurley/Wegman update and prior Campbell/Pereira discussion); National Weather Service warning text via the national watches/warnings feed; National Hurricane Center public advisory language on Hurricane Polo over the Gulf of California into Sonora.

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watch, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay. Prior desk: Monday, September 28 storm updates.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

September 29, 2026

Storm Updates: Southwest Flood Moderate, Dakotas Marginal — Monday, September 28, 2026

Monday afternoon desk. Water still owns the Southwest. A small Marginal is now on the northern Plains. Not an NWS warning.

This is a live Monday afternoon snapshot of U.S. local-storm activity as of Monday, September 28, 2026. The morning desk opened with a blank severe map. The Storm Prediction Center 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook, issued 0258 PM CDT, now carries a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of western and northern South Dakota and vicinity. No convective watches are valid. The last issued watch remains number 0674.

The Weather Prediction Center still holds a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall over portions of the Southwest and Four Corners. The 16Z update expanded that Moderate southwest down the Colorado River to include the California–Arizona–Nevada tripoint. Restoration exposure this afternoon is water first on already wet Southwest ground, then isolated hail and gusty wind on the Dakotas Marginal, plus a short radar-indicated severe thunderstorm warning that fired over San Bernardino County, California. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What is live this afternoon

SPC summary language at 0258 PM CDT: isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur this afternoon and evening across parts of western and northern South Dakota and vicinity. The 20Z update notes stronger surface heating and less cloud cover near northwestern South Dakota, with temperatures into the low and mid 70s F downstream of developing convection near the Wyoming–South Dakota border. Storms were expected to form near the Black Hills around 20–22Z and spread east-northeast along a weak surface front. Stronger cells may produce isolated hail and gusty winds before becoming elevated across northern South Dakota and southern North Dakota later tonight.

Mesoscale Discussion 2330, issued 0240 PM CDT and valid through 2145 UTC, covers the western South Dakota vicinity. Concerning: severe potential, watch unlikely. Watch-issuance probability is 5 percent. SPC language: isolated strong to severe storms may produce sporadic hail through evening. Most probable peak hail size up to 1.25 inches. Most probable peak wind gust up to 60 mph. That is a local pulse, not a watch day.

WPC Day 1 excessive rainfall, updated 1537 UTC Monday and valid 16Z Monday through 12Z Tuesday, remains the national water headline. A Moderate Risk covers portions of the Southwest. The 16Z update expanded the Moderate to the CA/AZ/NV tripoint after coordination with NWS Las Vegas. Marginal and Slight areas were expanded north along the Nevada–Utah border. A separate Slight Risk remains over parts of North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota from training showers on the low-level jet. WPC notes much of the ongoing Arizona rain has been stratiform, but soils are already wet and the terrain is flashy.

National Hurricane Center as of the 2:00 PM MST Monday Polo advisory: Hurricane Polo is still a major hurricane near 25.0°N, 113.0°W, moving northeast at 12 mph, 115 mph maximum sustained winds, 963 mb. Life-threatening winds and flash flooding are beginning over portions of Baja California Sur. That is a Mexico land desk plus a U.S. flood-moisture feed. It is not a California or Arizona hurricane landfall. Hurricane Nolo remains a Central Pacific / Papahanaumokuakea desk. Tropical Storm Rachel is paralleling the southwest Mexico coast. Atlantic Tropical Depression Fay and Tropical Storm Hanna are not a CONUS land-threat desk this afternoon.

Hotspot 1 — Southwest and Four Corners flood Moderate

This is still today’s organized desk. Predecessor moisture from Polo and remnants of Odalys continues to lift north ahead of a mid-level shortwave moving from the California Valleys toward the lower Colorado River Valley. WPC guidance still supports a widespread 1 to 3 inches across the Four Corners region on soils already near saturation. South- and west-facing slopes along the Mogollon Rim and the San Juans remain favored. Burn scars, slot canyons, and rocky fans fail first.

Counties and terrain to watch this afternoon: Mogollon Rim and higher terrain in Arizona; western and southwestern New Mexico including burn-scar drainages near Lordsburg; the San Juan Mountains and adjacent southwest Colorado; southern Nevada valleys; and the newly expanded Moderate near the CA/AZ/NV tripoint and the lower Colorado River. WPC also flagged slow-moving lines along the Nevada–Utah border.

Restoration read: water first. Stage pumps, extractors, and sandbags on known flood ZIPs and burn-scar alluvial fans. Photograph crawlspaces and finished basements as soon as it is safe. Do not treat this as a wind event unless a local warning says otherwise.

Hotspot 2 — Western and northern South Dakota Marginal

This is the only categorical severe area on the current Day 1 map. SPC expects storms to form near the Black Hills and move east-northeast along a weak surface trough and front. MD 2330 keeps a watch off the table. Isolated quarter-to-golf-ball hail and 60 mph gusts are the staffed threats, not a derecho and not a tornado outbreak. Aberdeen and Rapid City county warning areas own the pulse. Northern South Dakota into southern North Dakota trends more elevated after dark.

Restoration read: isolated hail and tree work if a cell verifies. Do not pre-position a regional CAT team on a 5-percent watch probability.

Hotspot 3 — Lower Colorado / San Bernardino isolated SVR

SPC still withholds unconditional severe probabilities for southeast California, southern Nevada, and western Arizona, but NWS Las Vegas issued a Severe Thunderstorm Warning at 129 PM PDT Monday for San Bernardino County until 215 PM PDT. Radar-indicated hazards: 60 mph gusts and quarter-size hail near Amboy and Interstate 40 between mile markers 68 and 98, storm moving northeast at 20 mph. That warning is a short local pulse inside the WPC flood overlay, not an SPC watch.

Restoration read: check I-40 desert ZIPs and any hail-struck vehicles after the cell passes. The bigger ticket in that same corridor remains flash-flood water, not wind.

Just hit

SPC local storm reports for the current 1200 UTC Monday to 1159 UTC Tuesday window showed no tornado, hail, or wind reports as of this afternoon desk. That board resets at 12Z. Last night’s preliminary reports from the 27/1200–28/1159 UTC window remain the open tickets:

2216 UTC Sunday — 1.00-inch hail 20 miles south of Merriman, Cherry County, Nebraska. Vehicle damage reported. (NWS North Platte)
2330 UTC Sunday — 1.00-inch hail 2 miles north-northwest of Willow Park, Parker County, Texas. (NWS Fort Worth)
0032 UTC Monday — 1.00-inch hail 24 miles north of Whitman, Cherry County, Nebraska. (NWS North Platte)
1440 UTC Sunday — 66 mph gust 10 miles northwest of Okobojo Creek Recreation Area, Sully County, South Dakota. Mesonet. (NWS Aberdeen)
2300 UTC Sunday — 60 mph gust 22 miles west-southwest of Roosevelt, Sutton County, Texas. West Texas Mesonet Sonora 23SE. (NWS San Angelo)
2320 UTC Sunday — Unknown-speed wind 4 miles north-northwest of Willow Park, Parker County, Texas. Large tree limbs down on FM 730. (NWS Fort Worth)

No tornado reports were received in that window. Sunday evening Severe Thunderstorm Warnings over southwestern Cherry County, Nebraska, and northeastern Parker County, Texas, have expired. Today’s San Bernardino warning is a live local product, not yet an LSR.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS / WPC level	Status this afternoon
Southwest / Four Corners	Flash flood, training rain, burn-scar runoff	WPC Moderate excessive rainfall	Live through Tuesday 12Z; outline expanded to CA/AZ/NV tripoint
Western / northern South Dakota	Isolated hail, gusty wind	SPC Marginal; MD 2330 watch unlikely	This afternoon into evening
Eastern Dakotas / NW Minnesota	Training showers, localized flood	WPC Slight excessive rainfall	Ongoing
SE CA / southern NV / western AZ	Numerous storms, isolated wet downburst or SVR	General thunder; local SVR San Bernardino	Today into evening
Cherry County, NE / Parker County, TX	Quarter hail, tree limbs	Expired SVR / Sunday LSRs	Just-hit cleanup
Polo	Baja wind and flood; U.S. moisture feed	NHC major hurricane near Baja Sur	Not a CONUS landfall

What this means for restoration teams

The national severe map is no longer blank, but it is still a small Marginal. The work that actually fills trucks today is WPC Moderate water on the Southwest and Four Corners. Saturated soils plus burn-scar fans do not need a supercell. Stage extraction before the next training core, not after the first flash-flood warning.

South Dakota is isolated hail and outflow if the Black Hills cells organize. MD 2330 says watch unlikely. Staff it as a local pulse. Cherry County and Willow Park remain yesterday’s hail and limb tickets. Photograph vehicles and roofs in daylight if it is still safe.

Polo is a Baja and Sonora hurricane desk plus a U.S. flood-moisture feed. Do not staff it as a California or Arizona landfalling hurricane. Nolo is a Central Pacific desk.

What this is not

This is not a Slight or Enhanced severe day, not a derecho, and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. Work today, if it verifies, is flash flooding on the Four Corners Moderate, a narrow Dakotas Marginal, and one desert SVR in San Bernardino County. That is the local-storm pattern this desk should staff.

Looking ahead

SPC Day 2, issued 1215 PM CDT Monday and valid 12Z Tuesday through 12Z Wednesday, is a Marginal Risk from southern and eastern New Mexico into west Texas. Isolated severe gusts and a couple of tornadoes are possible Tuesday afternoon through early Wednesday as Polo remnants eject toward far west Texas and southeast New Mexico. Day 3 is already a Slight. WPC keeps Moderate flood language into Tuesday over parts of the Southwest, central and southern Rockies, and southern High Plains. Watch Tuesday morning Storm Tracker rather than assuming today’s small map is the week.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center Sep 28, 2026 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook; SPC Mesoscale Discussion 2330; SPC Current Watches page (no watches valid as of 1414 UTC Monday); SPC local storm reports for 28/1200 UTC–present and 27/1200–28/1159 UTC; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook updated 1537 UTC Mon Sep 28; National Hurricane Center Hurricane Polo Advisory 33 at 2:00 PM MST Mon Sep 28; NWS Las Vegas Severe Thunderstorm Warning for San Bernardino County issued 129 PM PDT; National Weather Service warning text compiled at weather.gov.

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watches, MDs, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay. Morning desk for this calendar day: Storm Updates: Southwest Flood Moderate, Quiet Severe Pulse — Monday, September 28, 2026 (Morning).

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

September 28, 2026

Storm Updates: Southwest Flood Moderate, Quiet Severe Pulse — Monday, September 28, 2026 (Morning)

Map of Arizona, southern Nevada, southwest Colorado, and western New Mexico marked for Monday's moderate flood risk — Monday morning desk. Moderate flood on the Southwest and Four Corners. Not an NWS warning.

This is a live Monday morning snapshot of U.S. local-storm activity as of Monday, September 28, 2026. Overnight into this morning, the organized severe desk stayed quiet. The Storm Prediction Center 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook has no severe thunderstorm areas forecast. No convective watches are valid. The Weather Prediction Center holds a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall over portions of the Southwest and Four Corners as tropical moisture associated with Hurricane Polo and remnants of Odalys lifts north into already wet ground.

These are county- and ZIP-scale thunderstorms and flash-flood pulses, not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. Polo is still a major hurricane approaching Baja California Sur and Sonora. Restoration exposure today is water first in the Southwest, then isolated wind and hail cleanup from last night’s High Plains and north Texas cells. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What is live this morning

SPC language at 0728 AM CDT: severe thunderstorm probability remains low on Monday. Isolated to scattered storms are still expected later over the northern High Plains from western Nebraska into the Dakotas, and numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected across southeast California, southern Nevada, and western Arizona. Those corridors do not carry unconditional severe probabilities on this outlook. The last issued convective watch was number 0674; nothing is live now.

WPC Day 1 excessive rainfall, issued 0812 UTC Monday and valid 12Z Monday through 12Z Tuesday, is the headline. A Moderate Risk covers portions of the Southwest and Four Corners. Guidance supports a widespread 1 to 3 inches across the region, with south- and west-facing slopes along the Mogollon Rim and the San Juans favored. Precipitable water is forecast 2 to 3.5 standard deviations above normal. Burn scars, rocky soils, and slot canyons locally raise the flood threat. The Moderate outline forks farther south in New Mexico toward the Lordsburg area and the Sacramento Mountains.

A weakening cyclone near the southern New England coast still supports showers and occasional embedded thunder along the coast. Instability is weak. That is leftover nor’easter weather, not a new severe corridor.

Hotspot 1 — Southwest and Four Corners flood Moderate

This is today’s organized desk. Moisture from Polo and post-tropical Odalys is being drawn north ahead of a mid-level trough moving from the California Valleys toward the lower Colorado River Valley. Widespread clouds and weak mid-level lapse rates should keep most storms disorganized, but rainfall rates on saturated soils do not need a supercell to fail a crossing.

Counties and terrain to watch: Mogollon Rim and higher terrain in Arizona; western and southwestern New Mexico including burn-scar drainages near Lordsburg; the San Juan Mountains and adjacent southwest Colorado; southern Nevada valleys that take runoff from steep slopes. WPC notes the Moderate continues into Tuesday over parts of the Southwest, central and southern Rockies, and southern High Plains.

Restoration read: water first. Stage pumps, extractors, and sandbags on known flood ZIPs and burn-scar alluvial fans before the afternoon cores. Photograph crawlspaces and finished basements as soon as it is safe. Do not treat this as a wind event unless a local warning says otherwise.

Hotspot 2 — Northern High Plains isolated storms

SPC keeps general thunderstorms from western Nebraska north into North Dakota. A surface trough and modest 500–1500 J/kg CAPE later this afternoon could support isolated stronger cells. Uncertainty on location and intensity is why severe probabilities stayed off the map. A southerly low-level jet may keep elevated storms going tonight.

That is the same family that produced last night’s Cherry County hail. Staff it as isolated hail and outflow, not a watch day.

Hotspot 3 — Leftover Northeast coast and north Texas cleanup

The coastal cyclone continues to weaken near southern New England. Showers and occasional thunder remain possible near the coast. Sunday’s High Wind Warnings on the Jersey Shore and Long Island are already off the morning board from yesterday’s afternoon desk. Treat remaining coastal work as leftover water and beach debris, not a new wind outbreak.

North Texas had a short severe pulse last evening over Parker County. That is a just-hit ticket, not today’s outlook.

Just hit

SPC local storm reports for the 1200 UTC Sunday to 1159 UTC Monday window, all preliminary:

2216 UTC — 1.00-inch hail 20 miles south of Merriman, Cherry County, Nebraska. Vehicle damage reported. (NWS North Platte)
2330 UTC — 1.00-inch hail 2 miles north-northwest of Willow Park, Parker County, Texas. (NWS Fort Worth)
0032 UTC — 1.00-inch hail 24 miles north of Whitman, Cherry County, Nebraska. (NWS North Platte)
1440 UTC Sunday — 66 mph gust 10 miles northwest of Okobojo Creek Recreation Area, Sully County, South Dakota. Mesonet. (NWS Aberdeen)
2300 UTC — 60 mph gust 22 miles west-southwest of Roosevelt, Sutton County, Texas. West Texas Mesonet Sonora 23SE. (NWS San Angelo)
2320 UTC — Unknown-speed wind 4 miles north-northwest of Willow Park, Parker County, Texas. Large tree limbs down and outdoor items blown around on FM 730. (NWS Fort Worth)

No tornado reports were received in that window. Severe Thunderstorm Warnings that fired Sunday evening over southwestern Cherry County, Nebraska, and northeastern Parker County, Texas, have expired.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS / WPC level	Status this morning
Southwest / Four Corners	Flash flood, training heavy rain, burn-scar runoff	WPC Moderate excessive rainfall	Live outlook through Tuesday 12Z
SE CA / southern NV / western AZ	Numerous showers and storms, isolated wet downburst	General thunder; no severe probs	Today into evening
Western NE into the Dakotas	Isolated strong storms, hail or gust possible	General thunder; no severe probs	Late afternoon–overnight
Cherry County, NE / Parker County, TX	Quarter hail, tree limbs	Expired SVR / LSRs	Just-hit cleanup
Southern New England coast	Showers, leftover coastal water	Weak cyclone; no severe area	Fading
Polo / Odalys	Mexico land and moisture feed, not CONUS landfall	NHC Polo major hurricane near Baja	Moisture into the Southwest

What this means for restoration teams

The national severe map is blank. That does not mean a quiet shop in Arizona, New Mexico, southwest Colorado, or southern Nevada. Moderate excessive-rainfall language on already wet soils is extraction, drying, and a 24–48 hour mold clock in finished space. Burn-scar fans fail first. Stage before the afternoon moisture surge, not after the first flash-flood warning.

Cherry County and Willow Park are yesterday’s hail and limb tickets. Photograph vehicles and roofs in daylight if it is still safe. Sully County’s 66 mph mesonet gust and the Sutton County 60 mph gust are isolated wind, not a line.

Polo is a Baja and Sonora hurricane desk plus a U.S. flood-moisture feed. Do not staff it as a California or Arizona landfalling hurricane.

What this is not

This is not a Slight or Enhanced severe day and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. Work today, if it verifies, is flash flooding on the Four Corners Moderate and isolated High Plains cells. That is the local-storm pattern this desk should staff.

Looking ahead

WPC keeps Moderate excessive-rainfall language into Tuesday over parts of the Southwest, central and southern Rockies, and southern High Plains, then into the southern Plains midweek. SPC’s next Day 1 update is scheduled by 1630 UTC. Watch the afternoon Storm Tracker rather than assuming the blank severe map lasts past sunset.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center Sep 28, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook; SPC Current Watches page (no watches valid); SPC local storm reports for 27/1200 UTC–28/1159 UTC; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook issued 0812 UTC Mon Sep 28; National Hurricane Center advisories on Hurricane Polo and post-tropical Odalys; National Weather Service warning text compiled at weather.gov.

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watches, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay. Prior desk: Sunday afternoon Quiet Pulse, Northeast flood Slight.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

September 28, 2026

Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse, Northeast Flood Slight — Sunday, September 27, 2026

This is a live Sunday afternoon snapshot of U.S. local-storm activity as of Sunday, September 27, 2026. The organized severe desk is quiet. The Storm Prediction Center 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook states no severe thunderstorm areas are forecast and organized severe storms are not expected through early Monday. No convective watches are valid. Restoration exposure this afternoon is leftover nor’easter wind and water on the coastal Northeast, isolated gusty outflow from north Texas cells, and urban ponding where WPC keeps a Slight excessive-rainfall risk from New Jersey through southern New England.

These are county-scale thunderstorms and a fading coastal cyclone, not a mainland hurricane landfall. Conditions change. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What is live this afternoon

SPC issued the 2000 UTC (2:57 p.m. CDT) Day 1 outlook with the categorical line removed. The morning Marginal over western Nebraska and the Black Hills was taken off earlier; this cycle made no further change. Isolated convection was ongoing across portions of central and north Texas near 1945 UTC. SPC notes an isolated strong or damaging gust cannot be ruled out given steep low-level lapse rates and moderate buoyancy, but weak lower-tropospheric flow, limited effective shear, and poor mid-level lapse rates keep the severe probability under 5 percent.

A few additional thunderstorms remain possible late this afternoon and evening along a diffuse surface boundary from north Texas into southern Oklahoma. An occluded cyclone continues to weaken near the northern Mid-Atlantic coast, with elevated convection and isolated lightning possible to its northeast across southeast New England. Elevated storms over central South Dakota this morning were described as already past peak.

Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (valid 12 UTC Sunday through 12 UTC Monday) holds a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall for parts of the coastal Northeast — New Jersey, southern New York, and southern to central New England. Additional rainfall of 1 to 3 inches, locally heavier, is the language over the NYC metro into eastern Massachusetts. A Marginal Risk covers parts of Upstate New York and central New England, plus a separate Marginal from the Texas Hill Country into south-central Oklahoma. Isolated low-end flood potential is noted over portions of northern Arizona as moisture associated with Hurricane Polo begins to lift north of the Mexican coast.

High Wind Warnings that covered Eastern Monmouth and Coastal Ocean Counties in New Jersey and Long Island and adjacent Connecticut zones were in effect until noon EDT Sunday. Those products have expired. Tree-and-wire work from the overnight gusts is a just-hit desk, not a live warning desk.

Hotspot 1 — Coastal Northeast flood slight, wind fade

The live organized threat here is water, not a new severe watch. The slow-moving nor’easter lingering near northern New Jersey and eastern Long Island is still funneling moisture across southern New England. Instability is low, so instantaneous rates are not the main story. Saturated soils from coastal inundation and prior heavy rain keep urban streets, poor drainage, and small streams in play.

Cities and counties to watch: New York City and Long Island; Eastern Monmouth and Coastal Ocean Counties, New Jersey; New London and Middlesex Counties, Connecticut; eastern Massachusetts including the Boston metro. Restoration read: extraction and drying from last night’s wind-driven rain, plus ponding calls if the Slight Risk verifies. Photograph roofs in remaining daylight only if it is safe. Do not treat this as a new High Wind Warning — those expired at noon EDT.

Hotspot 2 — North Texas into southern Oklahoma scatter

This is the only convective corridor SPC is still talking about on the afternoon update. Isolated cells were already up over central and north Texas mid-afternoon. The same diffuse boundary can support a few more storms into southern Oklahoma this evening. Gusty outflow is the listed hazard. Hail and tornado probabilities are not highlighted.

Cities and counties to watch: the Dallas–Fort Worth periphery, Waco and Temple corridors, Wichita Falls, and counties along the Red River into southern Oklahoma. WPC’s Marginal excessive-rainfall pocket from the Texas Hill Country into south-central Oklahoma is the flood overlay on the same air mass. Restoration read: isolated wind and brief heavy rain. Staff local Severe Thunderstorm Warnings if they fire; do not staff a regional outbreak that SPC has already declined to draw.

Hotspot 3 — High Plains leftover and northern Arizona moisture

The morning Marginal for large hail over western Nebraska and the Black Hills is gone. SPC says the central South Dakota convection has already peaked and that any overnight elevated storms from western South Dakota into North Dakota carry only a low isolated-hail threat. NWS Aberdeen did issue a Severe Thunderstorm Warning this morning for parts of Stanley, Sully, and Dewey Counties, South Dakota — 60 mph gusts and quarter-size hail, radar indicated, until 10:00 a.m. CDT. That product is expired.

Northern Arizona is a low-end flood mention only, as flow turns southwest ahead of a trough digging into California and begins to draw moisture associated with Hurricane Polo. Polo itself is a Baja California Sur hurricane, not a U.S. mainland landfall. Restoration read: check whether any local flash-flood warning is actually live before rolling a crew. The outlook language is not a warning.

Just hit

SPC today’s storm-report page for the 1200 UTC Sunday through 1159 UTC Monday window showed no tornado, hail, or wind LSRs as of this afternoon scan. The morning desk already logged overnight Comanche County, Oklahoma wind and quarter hail from Saturday night. Mid-Atlantic High Wind Warnings that ran through noon EDT Sunday are the other just-hit pile: trees, service drops, and coastal water intrusion on the Jersey Shore, Long Island, and southern New England.

That is ticket work already on the books, not a new watch. Hurricane Nolo remains south of the Hawaiian Islands and is not a CONUS landfall. Hurricane Polo is a Mexico / Baja desk. Tropical Depression Fay is well west-southwest of the Azores. None of those systems is a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall this afternoon.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS level	Status this afternoon
Coastal Northeast (NJ / NYC / southern New England)	Urban flood, leftover wind damage	WPC Slight excessive rainfall; High Wind Warnings expired noon EDT	Live flood slight / wind fade
North Texas / southern Oklahoma	Isolated gusty outflow, brief heavy rain	SPC no severe area; WPC Marginal flood (Hill Country–south-central OK)	Scattered cells
Western NE / Black Hills / central SD	Isolated hail earlier; now quiet	Morning MRGL removed; SVR warning expired 10 a.m. CDT	Quiet
Northern Arizona	Isolated heavy rain	WPC low-end mention	Quiet / watch local products
CONUS Atlantic / Gulf coast	No landfalling hurricane	NHC systems offshore (Fay, Polo, Nolo)	Quiet on the mainland

What this means for restoration teams

Sunday afternoon is a close-out and water day, not a chase day. Northeast shops should finish tree-and-roof tickets from the expired High Wind Warnings and stay ready for urban water calls if the Slight Risk trains on already-wet ground. North Texas and southern Oklahoma shops watch local warnings only. High Plains shops can stand down the morning hail Marginal.

Wind that already happened is siding, gutter, and tree-on-structure work. New water on a Slight Risk is wet drywall and a 24–48 hour mold clock. Photograph in daylight if it is safe, call the carrier, and start extraction the same night if water is inside.

What this is not

This is not a regional derecho and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. SPC has no severe thunderstorm area and no watch. Polo is Baja. Nolo is south of Hawaii. Fay is mid-Atlantic open water. Do not invent a named-CAT desk on the CONUS from those tracks.

Looking ahead

SPC Day 2 (Monday) also has no severe thunderstorm areas forecast. Severe thunderstorm probability remains low. WPC discussion language for Monday raises a Moderate excessive-rainfall risk over parts of the Southwest, Great Basin, and central and southern Rockies as Polo moisture is drawn inland — that is tomorrow’s flood overlay, not today’s. Watch the next Storm Tracker update rather than assuming Sunday’s quiet line holds after 12 UTC Monday.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center Sep 27, 2026 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook (Chalmers/Guyer); SPC current watches page updated 1705 UTC Sunday (no watches valid); SPC today’s storm reports (20260927 1200–1159 UTC window); Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook updated 0812 UTC Sunday; NWS warning text including expired High Wind Warnings (Mount Holly and Upton) and the expired Aberdeen Severe Thunderstorm Warning; National Hurricane Center public products for Polo, Nolo, and Fay. Morning desk for this calendar day: Storm Updates: High Plains Hail Marginal, Nor’easter Wind Fade — Sunday, September 27, 2026 (Morning).

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watch, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

September 27, 2026

Storm Updates: High Plains Hail Marginal, Nor’easter Wind Fade — Sunday, September 27, 2026 (Morning)

This is a live Sunday morning snapshot of U.S. local-storm activity as of Sunday, September 27, 2026. Overnight into this morning, the organized severe desk stayed quiet. No Storm Prediction Center tornado or severe thunderstorm watches are valid. The last issued convective watch remains Watch 674, already expired. The 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook, issued 0730 AM CDT and valid 271300Z–281200Z, holds a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms for portions of the central and northern High Plains. Summary language from Norman: isolated thunderstorms capable of large hail will be possible across portions of western Nebraska and the Black Hills of South Dakota. No tornado or damaging-wind probability areas are forecast. Restoration exposure this morning is leftover Mid-Atlantic and southern New England wind from the fading nor’easter, isolated High Plains hail later today, and a Weather Prediction Center Slight excessive-rainfall overlay on parts of southern New England.

Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What is live this morning

No convective watches are current. The SPC watch page states no watches are valid. Today’s storm-report window that opened at 1200 UTC Sunday shows no tornado, hail, or wind reports yet. The overnight board from the Saturday convective day is thin and local: quarter-size hail near Lake Lawtonka in Comanche County, Oklahoma, at 0033 UTC, plus trees down about seven miles west of Central High and roadway damage about six miles north of Hulen in the same county just before 0000 UTC. That is yesterday’s western Oklahoma Marginal verifying as isolated cells, not a watch overlay that carried into Sunday.

The 1300 UTC Day 1 outlook draws a 5 percent hail contour over about 48,893 square miles and roughly 328,899 people. Larger centers inside the contour include Rapid City, Spearfish, Rapid Valley, and Sturgis in South Dakota, and Scottsbluff, Nebraska. A residual moist axis with 60s F surface dewpoints still reaches from the southern Plains into Nebraska and South Dakota. Forcing stays weak through the day, which should keep coverage isolated. Evening coverage may increase as a subtle vorticity maximum and a modest low-level jet arrive. Large hail is the named hazard with the strongest storms. SPC also notes scattered thunderstorms over north and central Texas late this afternoon and isolated to widely scattered storms from northern Utah into central Wyoming, with localized gusty winds possible but not enough confidence for a low-probability severe highlight.

The Weather Prediction Center short-range discussion issued 422 AM EDT Sunday keeps a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of southern New England on Sunday into Monday morning. The same discussion holds a Moderate Risk for Monday over parts of the Southwest, Great Basin, and central and southern Rockies — that is tomorrow’s water desk, not this morning’s. A strong nor’easter still drifts near the New Jersey coastline. WPC language: widespread minor to moderate coastal flooding is expected for at least one more high-tide cycle Sunday morning after significant coastal flooding Saturday. Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph remain possible Sunday morning from New Jersey to Long Island. NWS wind advisories were still live into noon EDT for New York City, Long Island, coastal and southeast Connecticut, the Hudson Valley, and the Berkshires. Gale Warnings remain on New England coastal waters. Dense fog was also in play early this morning over parts of south-central Nebraska and north-central Kansas until 11 AM CDT. A Flood Advisory covers pieces of Bourbon and Crawford Counties in southeastern Kansas into early afternoon.

Hotspot 1 — Western Nebraska and the Black Hills

This is the only categorical severe area on the Sunday Day 1 map. Isolated storms capable of large hail are the forecast, not a wind outbreak and not a tornado corridor. Heating on the western edge of the moist plume can build moderate buoyancy over western Nebraska even with some high cloud. Storm coverage stays limited until evening lift arrives.

Cities and counties to watch: Rapid City, Spearfish, Sturgis, and the Black Hills foothills in South Dakota; Scottsbluff and the Nebraska Panhandle. Restoration read: isolated hail dents and a few broken windows if a cell organizes, not a regional wind swath. Staff lightning and a tarp kit. Do not pre-position as if a Slight is coming.

Hotspot 2 — Mid-Atlantic and southern New England nor’easter fade

The live work here is leftover high wind, trees, wires, tidal water, and one more high-tide cycle — not an SPC convective watch. Saturday’s High Wind Warnings have largely rolled off into Wind Advisories and marine Gale Warnings. WPC is explicit that coastal and tidal flooding matter more than rainfall totals on the cold side of the low. Southern New England still sits under a Slight excessive-rainfall risk for localized urban and poor-drainage flooding as the rain slowly wanes.

Restoration read: this is the just-hit pile from Saturday night into Sunday morning. Check trees on service drops, wet basements, and coastal roads at high tide. Do not treat it as a new severe-thunderstorm outbreak. This is not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. Tropical Depression Fay is well west-southwest of the Azores. Hurricane Polo is a Baja California Sur forecast. Hurricane Nolo remains a Hawaii desk.

Hotspot 3 — North and central Texas, Utah–Wyoming scatter

SPC leaves these areas outside the Marginal contour. Scattered storms over north and central Texas late afternoon, plus isolated to widely scattered storms from northern Utah into central Wyoming, can still throw localized gusty winds. Coverage and magnitude were not enough for a 5 percent wind highlight on the 1300 UTC update. Treat local Severe Thunderstorm Warnings if they fire. Do not invent a watch.

Just hit

Sunday’s 1200 UTC storm-report window is empty as of this morning desk: no tornado, hail, or wind LSRs yet today. Overnight into early Sunday, the Saturday report day closed with isolated Comanche County, Oklahoma work — quarter hail northeast of Lake Lawtonka and trees plus roadway damage west of Central High and north of Hulen. That is the just-hit convective ticket. The larger just-hit desk is coastal wind and tidal water from New Jersey through southern New England after Saturday’s nor’easter blow.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS / WPC level	Status this morning
Western NE / Black Hills SD	Isolated large hail	SPC 1300 UTC Marginal	Afternoon into evening
NJ / NYC / Long Island / southern New England	Residual wind, tidal flood, urban rain	Wind advisories; WPC Slight rain	Fading through Sunday
Comanche County, OK	Trees, quarter hail	Saturday LSRs	Just hit overnight
North / central TX; northern UT–central WY	Localized gusty wind	General thunderstorms	Late day scatter
CONUS severe watches	None	No watches; last was 674	Quiet
SPC LSRs today (from 12Z Sun)	None yet	0 tornado / 0 hail / 0 wind	Quiet

What this means for restoration teams

Sunday morning is a quiet-pulse-plus-leftover desk. The convective piece is a small High Plains hail Marginal with no watch and an empty Sunday LSR board. Treat that as isolated cells later today, not a regional event. The live volume is already on the ground along the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England coast: trees, wires, and wet interiors from Saturday into this morning’s last high tide. Interior water still starts a 24–48 hour mold clock. Photograph in daylight if it is safe. Do not drive flooded coastal roads at high tide.

What this is not

This is not a regional derecho and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. SPC has one Marginal hail area and no Slight or higher. No convective watch is up. Today’s LSR board is empty. The nor’easter is a fading high-wind and coastal-flood event on the cold side of the low. That is the local-storm pattern this desk should staff.

Looking ahead

SPC Day 2 and Day 3 convective outlooks carry no severe thunderstorm areas. WPC lifts a Moderate excessive-rainfall risk Monday over parts of the Southwest, Great Basin, and central and southern Rockies, with a Slight over parts of the Upper Midwest Monday. Watch the afternoon Storm Tracker rather than assuming the High Plains Marginal is the last line of the week.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook for Sunday, September 27, 2026 (issued 0730 AM CDT); SPC current watch page (no watches valid; last issued Watch 674); SPC storm reports for 1200 UTC September 26 through 1159 UTC September 27 and the new Sunday window from 1200 UTC September 27; Weather Prediction Center Short Range Forecast Discussion issued 422 AM EDT Sunday; National Weather Service wind-advisory, gale-warning, dense-fog, and flood-advisory text; National Hurricane Center Tropical Weather Outlook (Fay well west-southwest of the Azores; no U.S. mainland tropical cyclone landfall).

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watch, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay. Prior desk: Saturday afternoon, September 26 storm updates.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

September 27, 2026