Category: Storm Tracker

Storm briefs and active weather that restoration crews plan around.

Storm Updates: Intermountain West + High Plains Marginal, Dakotas Flood Slight — Thursday, September 17, 2026 (Morning)

This is a live Thursday morning snapshot of U.S. local-storm activity as of early Thursday, September 17, 2026. Overnight convection left trees and wires down in western and north-central Ohio and quarter-to-half-dollar hail in eastern Utah and mid-Missouri. The Storm Prediction Center 1300 UTC Day 1 outlook holds a Marginal Risk of isolated severe wind gusts and hail across parts of Utah and Idaho into southwest Montana, plus a second Marginal over the central High Plains. No convective watches are valid. The Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook holds Slight Risks over portions of the north-central Plains and Midwest and over the southwestern U.S. There is no named tropical cyclone threatening U.S. land.

These are county- and ZIP-scale thunderstorms and flash-flood pulses, not a mainland hurricane landfall. Restoration exposure this morning is leftover wind and hail from last night plus a new afternoon hail/wind corridor in the Intermountain West and a water ticket on the Dakotas, Wyoming Front Range, and leftover Southwest terrain. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What is live this morning

SPC issued the 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook at 0730 AM CDT. Valid 171300Z–181200Z. Headline: thunderstorms with isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be possible over parts of the Intermountain West this afternoon and evening. A few strong to severe gusts may also occur across portions of the central High Plains. Risk-area population centers listed by SPC include Salt Lake City, West Valley City, Provo, West Jordan, and Orem. Categorical risk is Marginal only. No Slight Risk. No tornado probabilities in the 1300 UTC package. The Ohio Valley Marginal from Wednesday is off the map this morning. Poor lapse rates aloft and extensive cloud cover keep severe-wind probabilities below 5 percent from the Midwest through the Mid-Atlantic.

Current convective watches: none. Most recently issued watch remains Severe Thunderstorm Watch 669, already expired days ago. SPC watch page last updated 0849 UTC Thursday: no watches currently valid. That is the overnight close. Do not treat 669 as a live product.

WPC Day 1 excessive-rainfall language valid 12Z Thursday through 12Z Friday has two Slight Risk corridors. One covers a high-end Slight across much of South Dakota, expanding toward Sioux Falls and into southwestern Minnesota and northwest Iowa, and west-southwest to the Cheyenne, Wyoming region east of the Laramie Range. The other holds Slight Risk over New Mexico and eastern Arizona into the San Juans and western Colorado, with Marginal coverage into the Salt Lake corridor and southeastern Idaho. Wednesday’s Moderate Risk over southern and central Arizona is no longer the live upgrade. It is the just-hit and burn-scar follow-through desk.

Hotspot 1 — Utah, Idaho, and southwest Montana

A closed mid/upper-level low over northern California this morning will drift east across the northern Intermountain region. A 40–50 kt southwesterly mid-level jet and difluence aloft overspread the northern Great Basin this afternoon. SPC’s uncertainty is instability under morning cloud and ongoing rain. Upper-40s to low-50s dewpoints are already in place. Some guidance still builds 1000–1250 J/kg of MLCAPE over southeast Idaho and northern Utah if heating punches through. If that happens, a focused corridor of greater hail and wind potential exists because deep-layer shear is strong enough for supercells. Otherwise the threat is isolated hail and gusty winds with cells and small clusters across the northern Great Basin.

Overnight LSRs already put quarter-size hail at Huntington in Emery County and at East Carbon and Sunnyside in Carbon County. That is the same Salt Lake City forecast office that will own this afternoon’s cells.

Restoration read: hail first if discrete cells fire over the Wasatch Front and southeast Idaho. Wind second. Stage roof and auto-glass survey capacity in the Salt Lake–Provo–Boise belt before late afternoon, not after the first warning. Flash-flood risk on this corridor is Marginal to isolated, not the organized Dakotas ticket.

Hotspot 2 — Central High Plains and the Dakotas water corridor

Between the West Coast upper low and Southeast ridging, minor mid-level perturbations lift northeast from the Southwest toward the central High Plains by evening. SPC expects additional storms from northeast Colorado into western Nebraska late afternoon. Modest mid-level lapse rates should limit updraft intensity. Sufficient shear still allows a small cluster or two with isolated severe gusts spreading east-northeast through the evening. That is the wind overlay on top of WPC’s water story.

WPC is more organized here than SPC. A tropical-origin shortwave ejecting out of Arizona will pivot through the central Rockies and into the northern Plains tonight. Precipitable-water anomalies approach the 95th–99th percentile from South Dakota into southern Minnesota by the end of the period. Discussion language includes 2–4 inches, locally higher, with HREF neighborhood probabilities of greater than 2 inches at 50–80 percent across a large High Plains swath. The centroid of greater-than-3-inch probabilities sits just east and southeast of Rapid City into Badlands National Park. The Slight Risk was expanded east toward Sioux Falls for the last 6–8 hours of the forecast.

Restoration read: water first from the Wyoming Front Range across western and central South Dakota into southwest Minnesota and northwest Iowa tonight into Friday morning. Wind second if High Plains clusters organize. Do not send one crew to both a Cheyenne gust and a Rapid City wash without checking which county has a warning now.

Hotspot 3 — Southwest terrain leftover plus Ohio just-hit

The shortwave that drove Wednesday’s Arizona Moderate flood risk is leaving. WPC still keeps a Slight Risk over New Mexico and eastern Arizona into the San Juans and Sacramentos. Guidance still prints 1–3 inches on the Sangre de Cristos, San Juans, and interior New Mexico terrain. Sacramento Mountains burn-scar sensitivity remains in the discussion as locally Moderate impacts embedded inside a higher-end Slight. That is runoff on ground that already took water Wednesday, not a new Moderate upgrade.

Ohio is off today’s SPC Marginal. It is the just-hit desk. Overnight LSRs from the 16/1200Z–17/1159Z window include multiple trees down in Versailles and Piqua, a snapped hardwood onto a home awning in Darke County, barn sheet-metal loss and a blown silo near West Alexandria in Preble County, and trees and wires southeast of Mansfield in Richland County. NWS Cleveland had severe thunderstorm warnings into mid-evening Wednesday for Richland, Ashland, Holmes, and Knox counties. Those products are expired. The trees are still on the lines.

Just hit

SPC preliminary storm reports for the 16/1200Z–17/1159Z window show no tornadoes. Hail: 1.00 inch at Huntington, Emery County, Utah; 1.00 inch at East Carbon and Sunnyside, Carbon County, Utah; 1.00 to 1.25 inches near Linn Creek, Camden County, Missouri, with two-foot-diameter limbs down. Wind: downed power lines in Mesa, Maricopa County, Arizona; trees in Versailles, Darke County, and Piqua and Lockington, Miami County, Ohio; a snapped pole and large limb near Broken Arrow, Tulsa County, Oklahoma; a power line and a condo-garage roof near Osage Beach and Linn Creek, Missouri; barn roofing and a grain silo near West Alexandria, Preble County, Ohio; trees and wires southeast of Mansfield.

Today’s 17/1200Z cycle has no tornado, hail, or wind reports yet as of this morning desk. That is expected. The Intermountain and High Plains threats are an afternoon and evening problem.

Wednesday afternoon’s Storm Tracker already covered the Ohio Valley Marginal and the Arizona Moderate flood risk while they were live. This morning’s desk treats Ohio wind and Arizona washes as aftermath and moves the live outlook west and north.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS / WPC level	Status this morning
UT / ID / SW MT	Isolated hail and severe gusts; possible supercells if CAPE builds	SPC Marginal	Afternoon–evening cells
NE CO / western NE / High Plains	Isolated severe gusts	SPC Marginal	Late afternoon clusters
WY Front Range / SD / SW MN / NW IA	Flash flood, 2–4″ swaths	WPC Slight (high-end over SD)	Today’s organized water ticket
NM / E AZ / San Juans / Sacramentos	Flash flood, burn-scar debris flow	WPC Slight; leftover from Wed Moderate	Diurnal terrain cells
Western / north-central OH	Trees, wires, barn and roof damage	LSRs overnight; warnings expired	Just-hit
Emery / Carbon UT; Camden MO	Quarter to half-dollar hail	LSRs overnight	Just-hit / same offices own today’s risk
Atlantic / Gulf vs. U.S. mainland	No named cyclone	NHC: no tropical cyclones	Quiet on the mainland coast

What this means for restoration teams

Isolated severe hail on the Wasatch Front is a roof and auto-glass survey ticket if cells verify over Salt Lake, Provo, or southeast Idaho. Isolated High Plains gusts are tree, siding, and gutter work in a thin corridor. The organized ticket today is water from the Wyoming Front Range across South Dakota into southwest Minnesota and northwest Iowa tonight. Flash flooding on leftover Arizona–New Mexico terrain is wet drywall and a same-night extraction clock if water is inside a structure that already took rain Wednesday. Ohio trees-on-wires from last night are a separate staffing problem from this afternoon’s West.

For teams near the Intermountain Marginal: stage before mid-afternoon local. Property owners should photograph damage in daylight if it is safe, call the carrier, and start extraction the same night if water is inside. Turn around, don’t drown on High Plains and Southwest washes.

What this is not

This is not a Slight Risk severe day, not a live convective watch, and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. NHC reports no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, eastern Pacific, or central Pacific as of this morning. Edouard is already in the archive. The work, if it verifies, will be scattered: a hail swath through a Utah or Idaho county, a gust cluster on the High Plains, and heavier rain over South Dakota terrain tonight.

Looking ahead

SPC Day 2 (Friday) holds Marginal Risk across parts of the northern Intermountain West, the central Great Plains into the southern middle Missouri Valley, and the Carolina–Georgia Piedmont. WPC’s Day 1 water corridor over the Dakotas is the bridge into that Plains Marginal. The next Storm Tracker update should re-check the 1630 UTC Day 1 outlook and any new watches rather than assuming this morning’s Marginal stays the last word.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center Sep 17, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook (Gleason/Mead); current convective watches (none valid; last issued Watch 669); SPC preliminary storm reports for 20260916 1200 UTC–20260917 1159 UTC; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook and discussion (Kleebauer); National Weather Service warning text including Cleveland OH, Salt Lake City, Springfield MO, and Phoenix/Flagstaff/Tucson overnight flood products now expired; National Hurricane Center 800 AM EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, September 17, 2026.

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watch, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay. Prior desk: Wednesday, September 16 afternoon Storm Updates.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

September 17, 2026

Storm Updates: Ohio Valley Marginal, Arizona Flood Moderate — Wednesday, September 16, 2026

This is a live Wednesday afternoon snapshot of U.S. local-storm activity as of Wednesday, September 16, 2026. The Storm Prediction Center 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook still holds a Marginal Risk of isolated strong to severe thunderstorms over parts of northern Utah and parts of Ohio and vicinity. No convective watches are valid. Two mesoscale discussions are out this afternoon — MD 2302 for east-central Indiana into central Ohio and MD 2303 for northeastern Utah — both tagged severe potential, watch unlikely. The Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook still holds a Moderate Risk over portions of southern and central Arizona and the Sacramento Mountains of New Mexico. There is no named tropical cyclone threatening U.S. land.

What is organized this afternoon is water in the Southwest, not a Midwest derecho. Restoration exposure is isolated damaging wind or hail if a cell or small cluster holds together in Ohio or Utah, plus flash flood and burn-scar runoff where the monsoon plume sits over Arizona, New Mexico, southern Utah, and the San Juans. Conditions change by county. Verify with the National Weather Service before you roll.

What is live this afternoon

SPC issued the 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook at 0232 PM CDT, valid 162000Z–171200Z. Headline: isolated strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible today across parts of the Midwest/Ohio Valley and Utah/far northwest Colorado. The 20Z update said the forecast remains generally on track with only minor changes. Risk-area population centers listed by SPC include Columbus, Pittsburgh, Fort Wayne, Akron, and Salt Lake City. Categorical risk is Marginal only. No Slight Risk. No tornado probabilities.

Current convective watches: none. Most recently issued watch was Severe Thunderstorm Watch 669, already expired. Do not treat 669 as a live product.

MD 2302, issued 0246 PM CDT for east-central Indiana into central Ohio, valid through 162145Z: isolated thunderstorms near the Indiana/Ohio state line ahead of a stalled front. Temperatures in the 80s to near 90 F with mid-70s dewpoints. Effective shear 20–30 kt. Most probable peak gust up to 60 mph. Watch issuance probability 5 percent.

MD 2303, issued 0353 PM CDT for portions of northeastern Utah, valid through 162300Z: a developing supercell in a 500–1000 J/kg MLCAPE environment with 40–50 kt effective shear. Primary risk large hail (most probable 1.00–1.75 inches) plus isolated damaging gusts up to 60 mph. Watch issuance probability 20 percent. Watch still unlikely.

WPC Day 1 excessive rainfall, valid 12Z Wednesday through 12Z Thursday, keeps the organized water story in the Southwest. Moderate Risk over southern and central Arizona, including the Phoenix metro and the Mogollon Rim, and over the Sacramento Mountains of New Mexico around the Ruidoso burn-scar country. High-end Slight Risk covers much of Arizona into southern Utah, southwestern Colorado, and much of New Mexico. Isolated to widely scattered flash-flood prospects remain possible later across parts of Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio if cells train on the residual front, and again tonight along the I-80 corridor from Iowa into northern Illinois.

SPC preliminary storm reports for the current 16/1200Z–17/1159Z window show no tornado, hail, or wind reports as of this afternoon desk. Yesterday’s 15/1200Z–16/1159Z window is the just-hit file.

Hotspot 1 — East-central Indiana into central and eastern Ohio

SPC’s 1630 and 2000 UTC discussions keep the Ohio Valley on precip-loaded downdrafts, not supercells. PWAT values approaching 2 inches and steep low-level lapse rates can still produce strong or occasionally damaging winds. MD 2302 is the afternoon confirmation that cells are already firing near the state line. Coverage is widely scattered. Poor mid-level lapse rates should limit how long any one core lasts.

Overnight flash-flood warnings from Wilmington, Ohio, and Northern Indiana for Mercer County, Ohio, and Grant, Blackford, Adams, and Wells counties, Indiana, have expired. Those counties already took 1.5 to 3 inches before dawn. That water is still on the ground even if the warning product is dead.

Restoration read: wind first if a cluster organizes through early evening, then trees and lines. Water first in the counties that already flooded overnight. Stage tarps and tree crews in the Fort Wayne–Dayton–Columbus–Pittsburgh belt before the first new warning, not after it.

Hotspot 2 — Southern and central Arizona, Sacramento Mountains of New Mexico

This remains today’s organized flood ticket. WPC language still prints 2–3 inches, locally higher, where storms focus on the south-central Arizona desert including Phoenix and surrounds, the Mogollon Rim, southern Utah slot-canyon country from Zion toward Moab, the San Juans of Colorado, and the Sacramentos. Rates above 1 inch per hour for multiple hours are in the discussion. Burn-scar debris flow remains the life-safety language around Ruidoso and similar terrain.

SPC did not hang severe probabilities over Arizona and New Mexico on the 2000 UTC outlook. Water is the story. Gusty outflow is possible. Do not invent a severe-thunderstorm watch here.

Restoration read: extraction and drying on a 24–48 hour mold clock if cells stall over the same ZIP. Photograph interiors only when it is safe. Do not drive flooded washes. Turn around, don’t drown.

Hotspot 3 — Northeastern Utah into far northwest Colorado

Moisture has increased across Utah over the past 24 hours, with dewpoints in the low-to-mid 50s and PWAT over 1 inch. A band of 35–45 kt southwesterly mid-level flow is enough for a few rotating storms. MD 2303 is the live product on that cell: hail first, isolated wind second, watch unlikely. Grand Junction’s overnight flash-flood warning for the Lee Burn Scar in central Rio Blanco County expired before dawn. That scar can still run if another core sits on it.

Restoration read: isolated hail and wind tickets around the Wasatch Front and northeastern Utah valleys if the supercell holds. Burn-scar runoff is a separate life-safety problem from a roof-survey call in Salt Lake, West Valley, Provo, or Orem.

Just hit

SPC preliminary storm reports for 15/1200Z–16/1159Z show no tornadoes. Hail included 2.00 inches at Edgerton, Johnson County, Kansas; 1.75 inches west of Cairo, Randolph County, Missouri; 1.50 inches near Alta, Peoria County, Illinois; and 1.00-inch stones at Smyer, Texas, and Richmond, Missouri. Wind included 75 mph at McConnell Air Force Base in Sedgwick County, Kansas, with wall panels ripped at a nearby plant; 71 mph at Alva, Oklahoma, and railroad cars overturned east of Avard; 70 mph near Morton, Texas, and southeast of Hazelton, Kansas; an RV flipped west of Smyer, Texas; 67 mph south of Junction, Utah; trees and lines in Richmond and the Kansas City suburbs (Greenwood, Pleasant Hill, Lake Winnebago, west of Raytown); trees and lines in Congerville and Brimfield, Illinois; 65 mph near Wallen, Allen County, Indiana; numerous trees down near Lake Wawasee, Kosciusko County, Indiana; and power lines down near Humble City and Eunice, New Mexico.

Kansas City/Pleasant Hill still has river flood warnings on the Grand River near Chillicothe, Sumner, and Brunswick with crests later this week. That is channel water from Tuesday night, not a new convective watch. Tuesday afternoon’s Storm Tracker covered the Kansas–Missouri Moderate flood risk while it was live. This afternoon treats that corridor as aftermath plus river follow-through.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS / WPC level	Status this afternoon
East-central IN / central–eastern OH	Isolated damaging wind, leftover flash flood	SPC Marginal; MD 2302 watch unlikely	Cells live near the state line
Southern/central AZ, Sacramento Mtns NM	Flash flood, debris flow on burn scars	WPC Moderate excessive rainfall	Today’s organized water ticket
Northeastern UT / NW CO	Isolated hail and gusts, burn-scar runoff	SPC Marginal; MD 2303 watch unlikely	Supercell language this afternoon
NE KS / NW MO / Grand River	River flooding, wind/hail damage	Flood warnings; LSRs last night	Just-hit / in channel
IA / northern IL (tonight)	Training rain after 03Z	WPC Slight along I-80 corridor	Nocturnal pulse still ahead
Atlantic / Gulf vs. U.S. mainland	No named cyclone	NHC: no tropical cyclones	Quiet on the mainland coast

What this means for restoration teams

Wind at 60 mph is trees, lines, gutters, and isolated roof work — not a regional CAT. Two-inch hail from last night is already a roof-survey ticket in Johnson County, Kansas. Flash flooding on the Arizona–New Mexico Moderate Risk is wet drywall and a same-night extraction clock if water is inside. Grand River crests later this week are a separate staffing problem from today’s monsoon cells. Do not send one crew to both stories without checking which county has a warning now.

For teams near the Ohio Valley Marginal: the afternoon window is now, not tonight. Property owners should photograph damage in daylight if it is safe, call the carrier, and start extraction the same night if water is inside.

What this is not

This is not a Slight Risk day, not a live watch, and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. NHC reports no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, eastern Pacific, or central Pacific as of this afternoon. Two MCDs with watch-unlikely tags are not watches. The work, if it verifies, will be scattered: a wind swath through an Indiana or Ohio county, a hail core in northeastern Utah, a flooded wash in Arizona or New Mexico, leftover river water in north-central Missouri.

Looking ahead

SPC Day 2 (Thursday, valid 171200Z–181200Z) currently carries no severe thunderstorm areas. The 1730 UTC Day 2 discussion leaves room for later low-end wind probabilities near the Appalachians and Ohio Valley but kept the threat too marginal for an outlook area in this update. WPC still has a nocturnal Slight flood overlay from Iowa into northern Illinois late tonight, plus lingering Southwest water. The next Storm Tracker update should re-check the 0100 UTC Day 1 outlook and any new watches rather than assuming this afternoon’s Marginal stays the last word.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center Sep 16, 2026 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook (Chalmers/Weinman, previous Hart/Chalmers); 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook; current convective watches (none valid; last issued Watch 669); Mesoscale Discussion 2302; Mesoscale Discussion 2303; SPC preliminary storm reports for 20260916 and 20260915; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (Kleebauer, 352 AM EDT); National Hurricane Center Tropical Weather Outlooks, September 16, 2026 (no tropical cyclones in Atlantic, eastern Pacific, or central Pacific).

Morning desk: Wednesday, September 16 morning Storm Updates. Prior afternoon: Tuesday, September 15 afternoon Storm Updates.

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watch, MD, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

September 16, 2026

Storm Updates: Ohio Valley Marginal, Arizona–New Mexico Flood Moderate — Wednesday, September 16, 2026 (Morning)

This is a live Wednesday morning snapshot of U.S. local-storm activity as of early Wednesday, September 16, 2026. Overnight convection across the south-central Plains into the Midwest produced wind and hail. The Storm Prediction Center 1300 UTC Day 1 outlook holds a Marginal Risk of isolated strong to severe thunderstorms across parts of the Midwest/Ohio Valley and Utah into far northwest Colorado. No convective watches are valid. The Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook holds a Moderate Risk over portions of southern and central Arizona and the Sacramento Mountains of New Mexico. There is no named tropical cyclone threatening U.S. land.

These are county- and ZIP-scale thunderstorms and flash-flood pulses, not a mainland hurricane landfall. Restoration exposure this morning is leftover wind and hail from last night plus water on the Missouri River system and a new monsoon-style flood ticket in Arizona and New Mexico this afternoon. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What is live this morning

SPC issued the 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook at 0745 AM CDT. Valid 161300Z–171200Z. Headline: isolated strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible today across parts of the Midwest/Ohio Valley and Utah/far northwest Colorado. Risk-area population centers listed by SPC include Columbus, Pittsburgh, Akron, Salt Lake City, and Dayton. Categorical risk is Marginal only. No Slight Risk. No tornado probabilities in the 1300 UTC package.

Current convective watches: none. Most recently issued watch was Severe Thunderstorm Watch 669, already expired. That is the overnight close. Do not treat 669 as a live product.

WPC Day 1 excessive-rainfall language for the period beginning 12Z Wednesday has shifted the organized water story west. The Moderate Risk that covered northeastern Kansas into northwest Missouri on Tuesday is now the just-hit and river-flood desk. Today’s Moderate Risk is over southern and central Arizona and the Sacramento Mountains of New Mexico, with a high-end Slight Risk across much of Arizona into southern Utah and southwestern Colorado. Isolated flash-flood prospects remain possible later today across parts of Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio if cells train on the residual front.

Hotspot 1 — Indiana into Ohio and the upper Ohio Valley

A convectively augmented mid-level vorticity maximum over Illinois and northwest Indiana is forecast to track east across the Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes. Mid-level westerlies stay modest, generally 20–30 kt. SPC expects additional convective development this afternoon across parts of Indiana into Ohio as a moist low-level airmass destabilizes. Poor lapse rates aloft should limit updraft strength. Locally damaging winds are the hazard if loosely organized clusters form and spread east through early evening, then weaken with loss of heating.

Overnight LSRs already put trees and lines down in Kosciusko and Noble counties in Indiana, plus a measured 65 mph gust near Wallen in Allen County. Northern Indiana and Wilmington, Ohio, offices issued overnight flash-flood warnings for heavy rain of 1.5 to 3 inches in parts of Grant, Blackford, Adams, Wells, and Mercer counties. Those products expired this morning. The water is still on the ground.

Restoration read: wind first this afternoon if clusters organize. Water first in the counties that already took 2–3 inches before dawn. Stage tarps and tree crews in the Indianapolis–Fort Wayne–Dayton–Columbus belt before late afternoon, not after the first warning.

Hotspot 2 — Southern and central Arizona, Sacramento Mountains of New Mexico

This is today’s organized flood ticket. WPC upgraded Day 1 excessive rainfall to Moderate Risk over portions of southern and central Arizona and the Sacramento Mountains. Guidance continues to print 2–3 inches, locally higher, where storms focus on the Mogollon Rim, south-central Arizona including the Phoenix metro and surrounds, southern Utah slot-canyon country, the San Juans of Colorado, and the Sacramentos. Rates above 1 inch per hour for multiple hours are in the discussion. Burn-scar debris flow remains the life-safety language on higher terrain.

SPC did not hang severe probabilities over Arizona and New Mexico on the 1300 UTC outlook. Modest lapse rates, cloud cover, and only marginal deep-layer shear keep the severe-wind/hail threat limited. Gusty outflow is still possible. Water is the story.

Restoration read: extraction and drying on a 24–48 hour mold clock if cells stall over the same ZIP. Photograph interiors only when it is safe. Do not drive flooded washes.

Hotspot 3 — Utah into far northwest Colorado, plus leftover Kansas–Missouri water

On the southeast periphery of a closed upper low over northern California, 35–45 kt of southwesterly mid-level flow persists across the Great Basin. Ongoing storms over eastern Utah and northwest Colorado are in a strongly sheared but weakly unstable environment. SPC leaves room for isolated severe hail or gusts if cells or small clusters can form with filtered afternoon heating. Limited heating should keep the overall severe risk marginal. Grand Junction issued an overnight flash-flood warning for the Lee Burn Scar in central Rio Blanco County; that product expired before dawn.

Kansas and northwest Missouri are no longer the new Moderate Risk. They are the just-hit desk. Overnight LSRs include 2.00-inch hail at Edgerton, Kansas; 1.75-inch hail west of Cairo, Missouri; trees, wires, and power poles in Richmond, Ray County; wires down around Greenwood, Pleasant Hill, Lake Winnebago, and west of Raytown; and a small building damaged north of Clifton Hill. Kansas City/Pleasant Hill has flood warnings on the Grand River near Chillicothe, Sumner, and Brunswick with crests later this week. That is channel water from Tuesday night, not a new watch.

Just hit

SPC preliminary storm reports for the 15/1200Z–16/1159Z window show no tornadoes. Hail clustered from the Texas South Plains through the Kansas City metro into Peoria County, Illinois (1.50 inches near Alta). Wind included 75 mph at McConnell Air Force Base in Sedgwick County, Kansas, with wall panels ripped at a plant nearby; 71 mph at Alva, Oklahoma, and railroad cars overturned east of Avard; 70 mph near Morton, Texas; an RV flipped west of Smyer, Texas; 67 mph at Junction, Utah; trees and lines in Congerville and Brimfield, Illinois; power lines down near Humble City and Eunice, New Mexico.

Tuesday afternoon’s Storm Tracker already covered the Kansas–Missouri Moderate flood risk while it was live. This morning’s desk treats that corridor as aftermath plus river-flood follow-through.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS / WPC level	Status this morning
IN / OH / upper Ohio Valley	Isolated damaging wind, leftover flash flood	SPC Marginal; overnight FFWs expired	Afternoon clusters possible
Southern/central AZ, Sacramento Mtns NM	Flash flood, debris flow on burn scars	WPC Moderate excessive rainfall	Today’s organized water ticket
Eastern UT / NW CO	Isolated hail/gusts, burn-scar runoff	SPC Marginal	Afternoon cells possible
NE KS / NW MO / Grand River	River flooding, wind/hail damage	Flood warnings; LSRs overnight	Just-hit / in channel
TX South Plains / NW OK / south-central KS	Measured severe gusts, isolated hail	LSRs overnight; no watch now	Aftermath
Atlantic / Gulf vs. U.S. mainland	No named cyclone	NHC: no tropical cyclones	Quiet on the mainland coast

What this means for restoration teams

Wind at 60–75 mph is roof, siding, gutter, and tree-on-structure work. Two-inch hail is a roof-survey ticket in Johnson County, Kansas, and neighboring ZIPs. Flash flooding on the Arizona–New Mexico Moderate Risk is wet drywall and a same-night extraction clock if water is inside. Grand River crests later this week are a separate staffing problem from today’s monsoon cells. Do not send one crew to both stories without checking which county has a warning now.

For teams near the Ohio Valley Marginal: stage before mid-afternoon local. Property owners should photograph damage in daylight if it is safe, call the carrier, and start extraction the same night if water is inside.

What this is not

This is not a Slight Risk day, not a live watch, and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. NHC reports no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, eastern Pacific, or central Pacific as of this morning. A trough several hundred miles east of Bermuda has only a low chance of development and is not a land threat today. The work, if it verifies, will be scattered: a wind swath through an Indiana or Ohio county, a flooded wash in Arizona or New Mexico, leftover river water in north-central Missouri.

Looking ahead

SPC Day 2 (Thursday) currently carries no severe thunderstorm areas. WPC Day 2 holds Slight Risks of excessive rainfall for portions of the north-central Plains, Upper Midwest, and southwestern U.S. The next Storm Tracker update should re-check the 1630 UTC Day 1 outlook and any new watches rather than assuming this morning’s Marginal stays the last word.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center Sep 16, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook (Gleason/Mead); current convective watches (none valid; last issued Watch 669); SPC preliminary storm reports for 20260915 1200 UTC–20260916 1159 UTC; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook and discussion; National Weather Service warning text including Wilmington OH, Northern Indiana, Grand Junction, Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Quad Cities, and Lubbock; National Hurricane Center 800 AM EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, September 16, 2026.

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watch, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay. Prior desk: Tuesday, September 15 afternoon Storm Updates.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

September 16, 2026

Storm Updates: Kansas–Missouri Flood Moderate, Plains–Midwest Marginal — Tuesday, September 15, 2026

This is a live Tuesday afternoon snapshot of local storm-type events across the United States as of Tuesday, September 15, 2026. The Storm Prediction Center 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook keeps a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms from the south-central Plains into parts of the Midwest. No convective watches are in effect. The organized story this afternoon is water: the Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook holds a Moderate Risk from northeastern Kansas into northwest Missouri, with a high-end Slight Risk wrapping the Kansas City metro and I-70 corridor.

These are county- and ZIP-scale thunderstorms, not a mainland hurricane landfall. Restoration exposure tonight is flash-flood water first, then isolated wind-driven roof and tree work where the front fires cells. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What is live this afternoon

SPC issued the 2000 UTC Day 1 outlook at 2:55 p.m. CDT Tuesday, September 15, 2026, valid through 7:00 a.m. CDT Wednesday. The categorical call is Marginal. Population centers listed in the risk area include Indianapolis, Kansas City, Wichita, St. Louis, and Toledo. Summary language: strong to locally severe thunderstorms may occur from the south-central Plains into parts of the Midwest this afternoon and evening, with at least isolated damaging wind gusts possible. SPC explicitly opted against a categorical upgrade. As of the SPC watches page update Tuesday afternoon, no watches are currently valid. The most recently issued watch was Tornado Watch 669 on Monday.

Mesoscale Discussion 2300, issued 1:59 p.m. CDT, covered the Texas Panhandle into central Kansas. Watch issuance probability was 20 percent. Language: thunderstorm coverage increasing; sporadic strong gusts, with a locally greater chance of 50–65 mph from northwest Oklahoma into south-central and east-central Kansas. Most probable peak wind up to 60 mph; hail up to 1.25 inches. A watch was not anticipated. By late afternoon the current-MCD page showed no mesoscale discussions in effect.

WPC’s Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, updated 1556 UTC Tuesday and valid 16 UTC Tuesday through 12 UTC Wednesday, is the higher-confidence overlay. Moderate Risk covers portions of northeastern Kansas into northwest Missouri and clips far southeast Nebraska along the Missouri River. Guidance supports 2–3 inch areal averages and locally 3–5 inches from just north of Topeka toward St. Joseph. Flash-flood guidance is already low after morning rain. A high-end Slight Risk surrounds that core, including the Kansas City metro and I-70. A separate Slight Risk remains over eastern Arizona and western New Mexico on monsoon-style cells.

National Hurricane Center: no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic. Tropical Depression Fifteen-E is weakening well out in the eastern Pacific (about 15.7°N, 125.0°W, 30 mph). Post-tropical Norbert is a remnant low far from U.S. land. Neither threatens the U.S. mainland this afternoon.

Hotspot 1 — Northeast Kansas into northwest Missouri

This is the live flood desk. WPC broadened the Moderate Risk on the 16Z update to match an uptick in amounts and coverage near the Kansas–Nebraska–northwest Missouri juncture. Cold front slides southeast; best heavy-rain window is late afternoon through overnight as the low-level jet injects moisture along a boundary-parallel flow. Neighborhood probabilities for greater than 1 inch per hour have run 40–70 percent for several hours in the core.

Cities and counties to watch: Topeka and northeastern Kansas counties north of I-70; St. Joseph and neighboring northwest Missouri counties; far southeast Nebraska along the Missouri River; the Kansas City metro on the high-end Slight, not inside the Moderate core but close enough that a southward shift matters.

Restoration read: water first. Stage extractors and drying kits for basements, slab leaks, and low-water crossings that fail after dark. Morning rain already lowered flash-flood guidance. Photograph interiors only if it is safe. Do not treat Kansas City the same as St. Joseph without checking which county has a warning now.

Hotspot 2 — South-central Kansas, northern Missouri, and the cold-front wind line

SPC’s 20Z update said locally greater potential for a couple of damaging or severe wind gusts may exist across south-central Kansas and northern Missouri where guidance shows greater storm coverage on the cold front. Enhanced deep-layer shear is displaced north of the boundary; better thermodynamics sit farther south. That split is why the outlook stayed Marginal. Earlier MCD 2300 language pointed at northwest Oklahoma into south-central and east-central Kansas for 50–65 mph gusts if cells organize.

Cities and counties to watch: Wichita and south-central Kansas; northwest Oklahoma; northern Missouri counties along and north of the front; scattered cells from the Texas Panhandle east-northeast toward Illinois as convective temperatures are reached.

Restoration read: isolated wind, not a line you staff like a Slight-plus-watch night. Tarps and tree crews if a Severe Thunderstorm Warning verifies. Hail is secondary and limited by warm temperatures aloft.

Hotspot 3 — Four Corners / Southwest rain and leftover Plains wind tickets

Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms had formed across the Four Corners by about 1930 UTC. SPC notes weak buoyancy in a deep, well-mixed boundary layer — enough for an isolated strong to perhaps severe cell, not a concentrated severe area. WPC keeps a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over eastern Arizona and the western half of New Mexico, with locally 2–3 inches in the hardest terrain.

Yesterday’s organized wind corridor is already tickets. SPC storm reports for the 1200 UTC September 14–15 window include measured gusts of 87 mph near Guide Rock, Nebraska; 83 mph near Smith Center, Kansas; 77 mph near Amy, Kansas; 76 mph near Beatrice, Nebraska; 75 mph near Elmwood, Nebraska; plus trees and power lines in Cass and Lancaster Counties, Nebraska, Clarinda and Ames, Iowa, and other High Plains points. Today’s 1200 UTC-forward LSR page still showed no tornado, hail, or wind reports as of this afternoon scan. That can change after dark.

Restoration read: Southwest is flash-flood and outflow in terrain. Nebraska–Kansas–Iowa wind from Monday night is roof, siding, and tree-on-drop work already on the books.

Just hit

Monday evening’s Tornado Watch 669 (western into central Iowa, far northwest Missouri, eastern Nebraska, effective 4:50 p.m. until midnight CDT Monday) is closed. The gust and tree reports listed above are that corridor. Iowa river and urban water from the last two days can still be in the channel even if today’s new Moderate Risk sits farther southwest. Today’s new work, if it verifies, is flash flooding on the Kansas–Missouri Moderate Risk plus isolated wind along the front. No new U.S. mainland tropical landfall.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS level	Status this afternoon
NE Kansas / NW Missouri / SE Nebraska	Flash flood, training heavy rain	WPC Moderate excessive rainfall	Live flood overlay; evening peak
Kansas City / I-70 corridor	Heavy rain, urban flooding	WPC high-end Slight	Watch the southward shift
South-central KS / N Missouri / NW OK	Isolated damaging wind	SPC Marginal; MCD 2300 watch unlikely	No watch; scattered cells
Plains–Midwest Marginal envelope	Isolated wind, lightning	SPC Marginal (~166,470 sq mi)	Disorganized vs Monday night
Eastern AZ / western NM	Flash flood, strong outflow	WPC Slight	Afternoon–overnight terrain cells
NE / KS / IA just-hit wind	Roof, trees, service drops	Monday Watch 669 closed	Aftermath tickets
Atlantic / Gulf vs. U.S. mainland	No landfalling tropical cyclone	NHC quiet on the mainland	Quiet

What this means for restoration teams

Water on a Moderate Risk with already-wet ground is wet drywall and a 24–48 hour mold clock, plus vehicles in flooded crossings. Isolated 50–65 mph gusts are roof, siding, gutter, and tree-on-structure work in a single county, not a regional wind event. Monday night’s 70–87 mph measured gusts in southern Nebraska and north-central Kansas are the jobs already called in.

For teams near Topeka, St. Joseph, and Kansas City: stage extraction before the overnight training window, not after the first flooded intersection. Property owners should photograph damage if it is safe, call the carrier, and start extraction the same night if water is inside. Turn around, don’t drown.

What this is not

This is not a regional derecho and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. SPC did not upgrade to Slight. No convective watch is out this afternoon. Tropical Depression Fifteen-E and remnant Norbert are Pacific and offshore. The work tonight, if it comes, will be scattered: a flooded county in northeast Kansas or northwest Missouri, an isolated wind swath on the front, leftover tree jobs from Monday night. That is the local-storm pattern this desk should staff.

Looking ahead

SPC Day 2 remains generally quieter on organized severe over the central United States. A Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms is flagged Wednesday morning across the Great Salt Lake / Salt Lake City vicinity. Along the remnant front from the Ohio Valley into the lower Missouri Valley, scattered strong storms are possible Wednesday afternoon in weak shear, without a 5 percent severe-wind area on the 0600 UTC Day 2 package. Day 3 language available this afternoon showed no severe thunderstorms. Watch the next Storm Tracker update rather than assuming tonight’s flood core is the last line of the week.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources dated Tuesday, September 15, 2026: NOAA Storm Prediction Center 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook (issued 2:55 p.m. CDT); SPC Current Watches page (no watches valid; last watch 669); Mesoscale Discussion 2300; SPC storm reports for 20260914 and 20260915; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook updated 1556 UTC; National Hurricane Center public page as of 21:06 UTC. Morning desk on the same calendar day: Storm Updates, Tuesday morning, September 15, 2026.

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watches, MCDs, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

September 15, 2026

Storm Updates: Kansas–Missouri Flood Moderate, Plains–Midwest Marginal — Tuesday, September 15, 2026 (Morning)

This is a live Tuesday morning snapshot of local storm-type events across the United States as of Tuesday, September 15, 2026. Overnight the organized wind corridor that ran northern Kansas, southern and eastern Nebraska, and western and central Iowa is the just-hit desk. This morning the Storm Prediction Center holds a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms from the south-central Plains into parts of the Midwest. The louder national product is flood: the Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook carries a Moderate Risk over portions of northeastern Kansas into northwest Missouri, with a high-end Slight wrapping the Kansas City metro and the I-70 corridor.

These are county- and ZIP-scale thunderstorms and flash-flood cells, not a mainland hurricane landfall. Restoration exposure today is leftover wind damage from last night plus a new heavy-rain ticket on already-wet Kansas and Missouri ground. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What is live this morning

No Storm Prediction Center convective watch is in effect. Tornado Watch 669, issued late Monday evening, expired at 0500 UTC Tuesday (midnight CDT). Severe Thunderstorm Watch 668 from Monday afternoon is also down. The 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook (issued 7:28 a.m. CDT) is Marginal only. SPC language: strong to locally severe thunderstorms may occur from the south-central Plains into parts of the Midwest this afternoon and evening, with at least isolated damaging wind gusts possible. A Slight upgrade was considered for eastern Kansas into Missouri if an organized cluster can form, but the 1300 UTC package left probabilities at Marginal.

WPC’s 0800 UTC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook is the headline product. A Moderate Risk covers northeastern Kansas into northwest Missouri and clips the far southeast corner of Nebraska along the Missouri River. Guidance centers the heaviest totals just north of Topeka toward St. Joseph, with 2 to 3 inches areal-average and locally 3 to 5 inches possible. Kansas City and the I-70 corridor sit in a high-end Slight. A broader Slight Risk extends south along the cold front on the High Plains and northeast into Midwest counties that already took rain overnight. A separate Slight Risk remains over eastern Arizona and western New Mexico on monsoon-style cells.

National Hurricane Center: there are no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic. Tropical Depression Fifteen-E and Tropical Depression Norbert are both well out in the Pacific and not a U.S. mainland landfall threat.

Hotspot 1 — Northeastern Kansas into northwest Missouri (flood)

This is today’s primary new ticket. WPC coordinated a Moderate Risk with the Topeka and Kansas City weather forecast offices after neighboring counties already saw localized flash flooding earlier in the event. Precipitable-water anomalies of +2 to +3 standard deviations and flash-flood guidance that is already lowered set up 1-inch-per-hour rates after late-afternoon initiation. Best window is late afternoon through tonight as a low-level jet reloads the boundary. Training west-southwest to east-northeast is the mode that fails streets, underpasses, and small creeks first.

Cities and counties to watch: Topeka and the northeastern Kansas counties north of I-70; St. Joseph and neighboring northwest Missouri counties; the Kansas City metro as a high-end Slight, not the Moderate core; far southeast Nebraska along the river.

Restoration read: water first. Extraction and drying on a 24-hour clock if cells train over the same ZIP that already took rain Monday night. Do not treat Kansas City as the Moderate core unless WPC or the local office upgrades it later today.

Hotspot 2 — South-central Plains into the Midwest (Marginal wind)

A surface cold front will slide slowly south-southeast across the central Plains and mid-Mississippi Valley through this evening and stall late. Dewpoints in the 60s to low 70s sit ahead of it from the southern High Plains to the southern Great Lakes. SPC expects storms to develop roughly 20–23Z along much of the front. Loosely organized clusters with damaging wind are the primary severe concern, more so where heating is stronger on the southern and central Plains. Isolated hail is possible if a marginal supercell can hold from eastern Kansas into Missouri. Population under the 5 percent wind contour includes Wichita, Kansas City, St. Louis, Indianapolis, and Chicago.

Restoration read: isolated 60 mph-class gusts and trees on service drops, not a regional wind event. Stage in the counties that already have a Severe Thunderstorm Warning, not the entire Marginal contour.

Hotspot 3 — Southwest scatter and leftover Iowa water

WPC keeps a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over eastern Arizona and the western half of New Mexico. Isolated 2 to 3 inch cores on terrain are possible. SPC does not have severe probabilities over the Four Corners this morning; gusty outflow and small hail remain possible but unorganized.

Iowa is yesterday’s and last night’s water still in the channel. NWS Des Moines had a Flash Flood Warning into 9:00 a.m. CDT this morning for parts of Dallas, Madison, Adair, Cass, Audubon, and Guthrie counties after 1 to 3 inches already on the ground. That is extraction work already on the books, not a new watch.

Just hit

Preliminary Storm Prediction Center local storm reports from the 1200 UTC Monday to 1159 UTC Tuesday window show a long wind corridor and almost no hail. One landspout was reported near Arboles, Colorado. No tornado path damage is in the filtered LSR set as of this morning desk.

Measured wind highlights overnight: 87 mph 3 NE Guide Rock, Webster County, Nebraska; 83 mph 3 SE Smith Center, Smith County, Kansas; 77 mph 4 NNW Amy, Lane County, Kansas; 76 mph 4 N Kendall, Hamilton County, Kansas, and again 2 NNW Beatrice, Gage County, Nebraska; 75 mph 5 ESE Elmwood, Cass County, Nebraska; 74 mph 4 SW McClelland, Pottawattamie County, Iowa; 73 mph 1 N Shelby, Shelby County, Iowa; 71 mph near Richfield, Morton County, Kansas. Tree and power-line damage reports came in from Cass and Lancaster counties in Nebraska, Clarinda and Ames in Iowa, plus scattered tree work in Hinds County, Mississippi, and a power pole down in Tucson, Arizona. That is Monday night’s wind ticket. Today’s new work, if it verifies, is flash flooding on the Kansas–Missouri Moderate Risk.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS / WPC level	Status this morning
NE Kansas / NW Missouri / SE Nebraska	Flash flood, training heavy rain	WPC Moderate excessive rainfall	Afternoon through tonight
Kansas City / I-70 corridor	Heavy rain, urban flood	WPC high-end Slight	Tonight
S-central Plains into Midwest	Isolated damaging wind, isolated hail	SPC Marginal	20–23Z initiation
Northern KS / NE / western–central IA	Wind damage, trees, leftover water	LSRs overnight; Watch 668/669 expired	Just-hit / aftermath
SW Iowa (Des Moines CWA)	Flash flood from overnight rain	FFW into 9 a.m. CDT	Morning water
E Arizona / W New Mexico	Terrain flash flood, gusty outflow	WPC Slight	Afternoon cells
Atlantic vs. U.S. mainland	No landfalling tropical cyclone	NHC quiet on the Atlantic	Quiet

What this means for restoration teams

Last night’s 70–87 mph gusts are roof, siding, gutter, and tree-on-structure work in Webster and Smith counties, the Kansas High Plains, Gage and Cass in Nebraska, and Pottawattamie and Shelby in Iowa. Photograph in daylight if it is safe. Today’s new ticket is water on the Topeka–St. Joseph axis. Heavy rain on already-wet ground is wet drywall and a 24–48 hour mold clock. Iowa southwest counties that sat under the early-morning flash-flood warning are extraction first, not a new severe-wind desk.

Do not staff the entire SPC Marginal contour as if it were yesterday’s Slight. Yesterday’s Slight verified as a wind line. Today’s organized threat is rainfall rate, not shear.

What this is not

This is not a regional derecho and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. Watch 669 is expired. SPC left the Day 1 package at Marginal because an organized cluster is still too uncertain. The work today, if it comes, will be scattered: a flooded intersection north of Topeka or around St. Joseph, a wind swath in an eastern Kansas or Missouri county if a cluster does organize, leftover trees from last night’s Nebraska–Iowa line. That is the local-storm pattern this desk should staff.

Looking ahead

SPC Day 2 is Marginal again Wednesday morning near the Great Salt Lake / Salt Lake City vicinity for hail and wind on a shortwave. Day 3 is no severe. WPC will reissue the excessive-rainfall outlook later this morning; treat the Moderate contour as live until that update. The next Storm Tracker desk will catch any watch that fires on the Kansas–Missouri boundary this afternoon.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook for Tuesday, September 15, 2026; SPC current watch page (Tornado Watch 669 expired 0500 UTC); SPC preliminary local storm reports for the 20260914 reporting day; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook issued 0800 UTC Tuesday; National Weather Service warning text including Des Moines flash-flood warning IAC001-009-029-049-077-121; National Hurricane Center Tropical Weather Outlook showing no Atlantic tropical cyclones.

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watch, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay. Prior desk: Monday afternoon, September 14 storm updates.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

September 15, 2026

Storm Updates: Eastern Nebraska–Iowa Slight Risk, Watch 668 Kansas–Nebraska, Iowa Flood Moderate — Monday, September 14, 2026

This is a live Monday afternoon snapshot of local storm-type events across the United States as of Monday, September 14, 2026. The Storm Prediction Center 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook holds a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms across northern Kansas and southern and eastern Nebraska into western and central Iowa. Severe Thunderstorm Watch 668, issued at 3:45 p.m. CDT, covers western and northern Kansas and south-central Nebraska until 10:00 p.m. CDT. The Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, valid 12 UTC Monday through 12 UTC Tuesday, keeps a Moderate Risk over portions of central and southwestern Iowa.

These are county-scale thunderstorms and flash-flood pulses, not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. Restoration exposure tonight is wind-driven roof and tree work in the watch, isolated hail, a conditional tornado in the eastern Nebraska–western Iowa corridor if a surface-based supercell holds, and interior water where Iowa cells train. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What is live this afternoon

Watch 668 is the organized wind desk. SPC issued it at 3:45 p.m. CDT Monday, September 14, 2026, for portions of western and northern Kansas and south-central Nebraska, effective until 10:00 p.m. CDT. Primary threat language is scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80 mph, plus isolated large hail to 1.5 inches. High-based storms are expected to continue in a hot, well-mixed environment and spread northeast near a pre-frontal trough.

The 2000 UTC Day 1 outlook, issued 3:00 p.m. CDT by Karstens and Wendt, did not change the categorical Slight Risk. Summary language: scattered strong to severe thunderstorms should occur across parts of eastern Nebraska into western and central Iowa this afternoon and evening. Large hail, severe wind gusts, and tornadoes all appear possible. Severe thunderstorm winds will also be possible across northern and western Kansas. An 18z Omaha sounding showed about 2,232 J/kg MUCAPE as destablization spread north into central and eastern Nebraska. SPC still expects an elongated area of convection from north-central Kansas into south-central and eastern Nebraska and west-central Iowa, favoring supercells early, then a quick transition to clusters and line segments. Exact initiation remains uncertain in recent HRRR and RRFS runs. No SPC mesoscale discussion was in effect as of mid-afternoon UTC; Watch 668 is the current watch product.

WPC’s Day 1 excessive-rainfall discussion, issued 3:40 a.m. EDT Monday, September 14, 2026, maintains a Moderate Risk over portions of central and southwestern Iowa, coordinated with the Des Moines forecast office. HREF blended-mean QPF of 3–5 inches is cited near Des Moines and points south and southwest, with neighborhood probabilities of 60–80 percent for more than 3 inches and 3-hour flash-flood-guidance exceedance probabilities of 50–70 percent. A broad Slight Risk still covers much of the Midwest from the Door Peninsula through eastern Nebraska, plus a separate Slight Risk over the Southwest west of the I-25 corridor.

Hotspot 1 — Eastern Nebraska into western and central Iowa

This is the Slight Risk core. SPC places 5 percent tornado probabilities over parts of eastern Nebraska near Omaha, Lincoln, Council Bluffs, Bellevue, and Fremont, with 2 percent tornado probabilities extending toward Des Moines, Sioux City, Ames, West Des Moines, and Ankeny. Fifteen-percent wind and hail contours overlap the Omaha–Lincoln–Council Bluffs corridor. A 40–50 kt nocturnal low-level jet is forecast to increase effective storm-relative helicity this evening. SPC notes lingering low-level inhibition on RAP soundings and says it remains unclear whether convection will fully tap that shear. A sustained surface-based supercell in that environment would conditionally be capable of a strong tornado. Weak instability farther east in eastern Iowa should limit the severe risk deeper into the night.

Cities and counties to watch: Omaha, Lincoln, Bellevue, Fremont, and Council Bluffs; Sioux City, Fort Dodge, Ames, Des Moines, West Des Moines, and Ankeny; counties along and just ahead of the cold front from southeast Nebraska into west-central Iowa.

Restoration read: wind and hail first if supercells hold, then water if the same cells train on the WPC Moderate footprint. Stage tarps, generators, and extraction pumps before dark. Treat a tornado warning as a narrow local survey, not a regional event.

Hotspot 2 — Watch 668: western and northern Kansas, south-central Nebraska

The watch box runs roughly 45 miles north and south of a line from 145 miles southwest of Hill City, Kansas, to 50 miles east of Hastings, Nebraska. That is high-based, mixed-layer convection along the pre-frontal trough, not the same supercell corridor as Omaha. Primary threats are damaging wind, isolated 80 mph gusts, and hail to about 1.5 inches through 10:00 p.m. CDT.

Cities and counties to watch: Hill City, Hays, and northern Kansas counties in the watch outline; Hastings, Grand Island, and south-central Nebraska counties in and near the box. Confirm the county list on the Watch 668 outline update at SPC before you pre-position.

Restoration read: dry-microburst and outflow wind on roofs, siding, and center-pivot country. Photograph in remaining daylight only if it is safe. Hail claims will be isolated, not a swath unless a cell stays surface-based longer than expected.

Hotspot 3 — Central and southwestern Iowa flood Moderate, plus Southwest rain

The flood desk is Iowa. WPC introduced a small Moderate Risk for this Day 1 period because CAM guidance clustered 3–6 inch totals south of I-80, with urban streets and low-water crossings the first failures. A broader Slight Risk still covers eastern Nebraska through much of the Midwest. Expectation is scattered flash flooding tonight into early Tuesday morning.

The Southwest Slight Risk covers eastern Arizona, much of New Mexico west of I-25, and southwestern Colorado. PWATs are cited near the 95th–99th percentile. That is monsoon-style heavy rain on complex terrain and remnant burn scars, plus strong outflow, not the Plains watch.

Restoration read: Iowa is water and a 24–48 hour mold clock if 3-inch cores verify in town. The Southwest is localized washouts and urban flooding, not a CAT roster.

Just hit

SPC storm reports for the 12 UTC Monday, September 14, 2026 through 12 UTC Tuesday window showed no tornado, hail, or wind LSRs at the time of this afternoon desk. That is a quiet start to the convective day, not a forecast of a quiet evening. Last night’s 12 UTC Sunday–Monday window still holds the tickets already on the board: tree and wire work across Ohio, Pennsylvania, New York, and West Virginia from Sunday’s upper Ohio Valley–Northeast line; a roof peeled in Fox Township, Carroll County, Ohio; microburst-style trees and minor roof damage near Cloverport, Hardeman County, Tennessee; 1.00-inch hail near Sterling, Johnson County, Nebraska, and in Cascade and Judith Basin counties, Montana; a 61 mph gust near Patagonia, Arizona.

Sunday’s organized wind corridor is yesterday. Today’s new work, if it verifies, is Watch 668 and the eastern Nebraska–Iowa Slight Risk plus Iowa flash flooding.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS level	Status this afternoon
Eastern NE / western–central IA	Hail, damaging wind, conditional tornado	SPC Slight (2000 UTC)	Live Slight; initiation still uncertain
Western / northern KS, south-central NE	Damaging wind to 80 mph, hail to 1.5 in	Watch 668 to 10 p.m. CDT	Live watch
Central / southwestern Iowa	Flash flood, 3–6 in cores possible	WPC Moderate excessive rainfall	Tonight into Tuesday morning
Midwest Slight (Door Peninsula to eastern NE)	Scattered flash flood	WPC Slight	Overnight
E AZ / NM west of I-25 / SW CO	Heavy rain, outflow, burn-scar flood	WPC Slight	Afternoon–evening cells
Eastern North Carolina	Isolated gusty wind, small hail	Local / no categorical severe area	Isolated
Atlantic / Gulf vs. U.S. mainland	No landfalling tropical cyclone	NHC: no Atlantic TCs	Quiet on the mainland coast

What this means for restoration teams

Watch 668 wind at 65–80 mph is roof, siding, gutter, and tree-on-structure work in Kansas and south-central Nebraska. The Slight Risk east of that box is the same plus a conditional tornado and large hail if a supercell holds from Lincoln–Omaha into western Iowa. Iowa’s Moderate flood risk is wet drywall and a same-night extraction clock if the 3-inch HREF signal verifies south of I-80. Do not send one crew to both the watch box and Des Moines without checking which county has a warning now.

For teams in or near Watch 668: stage before sunset, not after the first warning. Property owners should photograph damage in daylight if it is safe, call the carrier, and start extraction the same night if water is inside.

What this is not

This is not a regional derecho and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. National Hurricane Center products as of Monday afternoon, September 14, 2026, show no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic. Tropical Storm Norbert is in the east-central Pacific about 1,125 miles east of Hilo, Hawaii, with 40 mph winds and a weakening trend. Tropical Depression Fifteen-E is about 785 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Neither threatens U.S. mainland land. The work tonight, if it comes, will be scattered: a wind swath in the Kansas–Nebraska watch, a hail or tornado report in the eastern Nebraska Slight Risk, flooded intersections south of I-80 in Iowa.

Looking ahead

The SPC Day 2 Convective Outlook issued 12:14 p.m. CDT Monday, September 14, 2026 (valid 12 UTC Tuesday through 12 UTC Wednesday) is a Marginal Risk in a corridor from Kansas into western Ohio. Summary language: scattered strong thunderstorms may occur from the Great Lakes southwestward through the lower Missouri Valley Tuesday afternoon and evening, with at least isolated damaging wind gusts possible. Shear is forecast to be weak. Storms should be primarily short-lived, with a few clusters near the front. Watch the next Storm Tracker update rather than assuming Watch 668 is the last line of the week.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources dated Monday, September 14, 2026: NOAA Storm Prediction Center 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook; Severe Thunderstorm Watch 668; SPC current watches and today’s LSR page (no reports in the 12 UTC Monday window at desk time); Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook updated 0733 UTC; National Hurricane Center Atlantic and East Pacific public pages. Morning desk on the same calendar day: Storm Updates: Eastern Nebraska–Iowa Slight Risk, Iowa Flood Moderate — Monday, September 14, 2026 (Morning).

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watch, and LSRs, Watch 668, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

September 14, 2026

Storm Updates: Eastern Nebraska–Iowa Slight Risk, Iowa Flood Moderate — Monday, September 14, 2026 (Morning)

This is a live Monday morning snapshot of local storm-type events across the United States as of Monday, September 14, 2026. Overnight the organized wind corridor that ran the upper Ohio Valley into New York is down. No Storm Prediction Center watches are currently valid. The Day 1 Convective Outlook issued 0746 AM CDT holds a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of eastern Nebraska into western and central Iowa this afternoon and evening. Large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes all appear possible. The Weather Prediction Center overlays a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall on central and southwestern Iowa, with a broader Slight Risk from eastern Nebraska through the Midwest and a separate Slight Risk over the Southwest monsoon corridor.

These are county- and ZIP-scale thunderstorms and flash-flood pulses, not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. Restoration exposure today is wind and hail on the Nebraska–Iowa Slight, interior water where Iowa cells train south of I-80 tonight, and leftover tree-and-roof work from Sunday evening in Ohio, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and New York. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What is live this morning

SPC lists no current convective watches. The most recently issued watch was number 667 earlier in the week; Sunday’s Ohio Valley–Northeast slight-risk corridor produced local severe thunderstorm warnings and wind damage but did not carry an overnight watch into Monday morning.

The 1300 UTC Day 1 outlook (valid 1300Z Monday through 1200Z Tuesday) draws the Slight Risk from roughly Grand Island and Hastings east-northeast through Omaha and Lincoln into western and central Iowa, including the Des Moines metro on the eastern edge. A Marginal Risk wraps a wider ring from the Dakotas and Minnesota south through Kansas. Elevated convection is already ongoing this morning across the central Plains and mid Missouri Valley on a strong low-level jet. SPC expects that band to stay mostly sub-severe and weaken late morning, then a new surface-based corridor to fire along or just ahead of a cold front across eastern Nebraska by late afternoon.

WPC’s Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, updated 0733 UTC, is the louder product this morning: Moderate Risk over portions of central and southwestern Iowa, with locally 3 to 6 inches possible south of I-80 toward Des Moines and points southwest. A broad Slight Risk still covers much of the Midwest from eastern Nebraska through southern Minnesota and the Door Peninsula, plus a separate Slight over eastern Arizona, New Mexico, and southwestern Colorado.

Hotspot 1 — Eastern Nebraska into western and central Iowa

This is today’s organized severe desk. A mid-level shortwave and 50–70-plus kt mid-level jet move east-northeast across the northern Plains. Rich low-level moisture is forecast to stream north into eastern Nebraska and western Iowa after morning convection clears. SPC allows a narrow corridor of 2,000–3,000+ J/kg MLCAPE if surface temperatures reach the low to mid 80s by late afternoon. Initial storms should be supercellular enough for large hail. Mode is expected to transition quickly to clusters and line segments. A 40–50 kt nocturnal low-level jet supports ample storm-relative helicity this evening; a sustained surface-based supercell would conditionally be capable of a strong tornado. That is the official language, not a guarantee that one occurs.

Cities and counties to watch: Lincoln, Omaha, Council Bluffs, Sioux City, Des Moines, Ames, and the I-80 belt from Grand Island through western Iowa. Watch issuance, if it comes, is an afternoon product — not a morning one.

Restoration read: hail and wind first on the Nebraska side; water second once the same storms cluster over Iowa after dark. Stage tarps and generators before 4 p.m. local. If a warning includes both wind and heavy rain, treat the ZIP as a dual ticket by morning.

Hotspot 2 — Central and southwestern Iowa flood overlay

WPC introduced a small Moderate Risk for D1 in coordination with the Des Moines office. HREF blended mean QPF runs 3–5 inches over the area encompassing Des Moines and points south and southwest. Neighborhood probabilities for more than 3 inches are 60–80 percent in that pocket, with 25–30 percent for more than 5 inches. Three-hour flash-flood guidance exceedance sits 50–70 percent. The main concerns are urban footprints and low-water crossings south of I-80. Heavy rain is expected to linger into early Tuesday morning.

A broader Slight still covers eastern Nebraska into southern Minnesota. Isolated flash-flood concerns this morning ride the progressive elevated band; the more appreciable footprint is the evening and overnight wave.

Restoration read: this is tonight’s water ticket. Extraction and drying clocks start the same night water is inside. Do not wait for a river flood warning if streets and finished basements are already taking the 1-inch-per-hour cores.

Hotspot 3 — Sunday just-hit and Southwest scatter

Overnight LSRs from the 1200 UTC Sunday–Monday window show the Ohio Valley–Northeast slight-risk corridor verified as wind, not tornadoes. Preliminary reports include a roof ripped off a home and multiple trees down in Fox Township, Carroll County, Ohio; trees and wires across Lawrence, Butler, Crawford, McKean, and Clearfield counties in Pennsylvania; trees on structures and roads in Washington County, Ohio, and Wood County, West Virginia; and additional tree and wire damage in Onondaga, Oneida, Franklin, Fulton, and Saratoga counties in New York. Isolated 1.00-inch hail fell near Monarch and Raynesford, Montana, and 2 south of Sterling, Nebraska, after midnight. A 61 mph gust was measured near Patagonia, Arizona.

Today the Southwest stays a flood-and-outflow desk. WPC keeps a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over eastern Arizona, much of New Mexico, and southwestern Colorado on monsoon-style cells, burn scars, and slot canyons. SPC does not carry 5 percent severe probabilities there, but isolated strong gusts and small to near-severe hail are possible where heating is strongest. Eastern North Carolina sits under a cold front with only a low-end isolated wind/hail mention.

Just hit

Sunday’s upper Ohio Valley–central New York Slight Risk is yesterday’s ticket: trees, wires, and isolated roof work from eastern Ohio through northwest Pennsylvania into central New York. Watch 667 from Saturday is long expired. There is no named tropical cyclone threatening U.S. land this morning. National Hurricane Center discussion shows no Atlantic tropical cyclones; Tropical Storm Norbert and a weakening eastern Pacific depression are well offshore and not a mainland or Hawaii landfall problem today.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS / WPC level	Status this morning
Eastern NE / western–central IA	Large hail, damaging wind, few tornadoes possible	SPC Slight (1300Z)	Afternoon–evening; no watch yet
SW / central Iowa south of I-80	Flash flood, 3–6″ local totals	WPC Moderate excessive rainfall	Evening into Tuesday morning
OH / PA / WV / NY from Sunday	Trees, wires, isolated roof damage	LSRs; watches expired	Aftermath
Eastern CO / western–northern KS	Isolated severe gusts, high-based cells	SPC Marginal	Afternoon scatter
AZ / NM / SW CO	Flash flood, strong outflow	WPC Slight	Afternoon–evening cells
Atlantic / Gulf vs. U.S. mainland	No landfalling tropical cyclone	NHC quiet on the mainland	Quiet

What this means for restoration teams

Eastern Nebraska this evening is hail and wind: roofs, siding, screens, and vehicles. Western and central Iowa is the dual ticket — the same storms that throw hail west of the Missouri River can train 3-plus inches of rain over Des Moines and counties southwest of I-80 after dark. A brief tornado, if one occurs, is a narrow swath. Staff it as a local damage survey, not a regional outbreak.

Sunday’s Ohio–Pennsylvania–New York wind is already on the books: tree-on-structure, service drops, and isolated roof peel. Photograph remaining damage in daylight if it is safe, then move crews toward the Nebraska–Iowa corridor rather than chasing last night’s counties unless a specific claim is already open.

What this is not

This is not a regional derecho and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. The work today, if it verifies, will be scattered: a hail swath through an eastern Nebraska county, a flooded intersection south of I-80 in Iowa, leftover trees in Ohio or New York. That is the local-storm pattern this desk should staff.

Looking ahead

SPC Day 2 is a Marginal Risk as the same trough lifts toward the Upper Great Lakes. Day 3 currently carries no severe area. WPC language keeps heavy rain lingering into early Tuesday over the same Iowa footprint. Watch the afternoon Storm Tracker rather than assuming the 1300Z Slight is the last line of the day — a watch can still go up if the warm sector destabilizes as drawn.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook for Monday, September 14, 2026 (Gleason/Lyons); SPC current watch page (no watches valid as of 1010 UTC); SPC preliminary local storm reports for the 13/1200Z–14/1159Z window; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook updated 0733 UTC; National Hurricane Center Atlantic and East Pacific discussions this morning.

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watches, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay. Prior desk: Sunday afternoon, September 13 storm updates.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

September 14, 2026

Storm Updates: Upper Ohio Valley–Central New York Slight Risk — Sunday, September 13, 2026

This is a live Sunday afternoon snapshot of local storm-type events across the United States as of Sunday, September 13, 2026. The Storm Prediction Center 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook holds a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms from the upper Ohio Valley into central New York, covering about 43,500 square miles and 8.3 million people, with Pittsburgh, Rochester, Akron, Syracuse, and Canton inside the higher contour. A broader Marginal Risk wraps Columbus, Cincinnati, Buffalo, Dayton, and Albany. No convective watches and no mesoscale discussions were in effect on the afternoon check. Restoration exposure this window is wind-driven roof and tree work on the Ohio–Pennsylvania–New York corridor, leftover Saturday water in the Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic, and a separate WPC flood Slight over southern New England plus eastern Kansas into western Missouri.

These are county- and ZIP-scale thunderstorms, not a mainland hurricane landfall. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What is live this afternoon

SPC upgraded portions of the corridor to Slight earlier Sunday with the 1630 UTC package and held that upgrade in the 2000 UTC update issued 2:57 p.m. CDT by forecaster Wendt. The language is isolated to widely scattered severe storms this afternoon and evening, mainly damaging wind along a cold front moving east through the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and Northeast. Deep-layer shear of 35–45 kt is enough for organized bands, short bowing segments, and a few initial supercells. Hail is secondary because lapse rates aloft are only about 6–6.5 C/km. Storms are expected to weaken with eastward extent this evening as nocturnal cooling and a less unstable airmass take over.

As of the afternoon product cycle, SPC listed no watches valid (most recent issued watch was 667 on a prior day) and no mesoscale discussions in effect (most recent MD 2291). Today’s official LSR page covering 1200 UTC September 13 through 1159 UTC September 14 still showed no tornado, hail, or wind reports at the afternoon check — the front had not yet produced a logged severe report in that window.

Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, valid 12 UTC September 13 through 12 UTC September 14 and issued 3:46 a.m. EDT, keeps Slight Risk areas over portions of the Northeast and the Central Plains. Southern New England language focuses on Long Island and coastal Connecticut and Rhode Island, with the threat expected to exit late afternoon. Central Plains language favors eastern Kansas and western Missouri overnight as a low-level jet strengthens. A Marginal Risk remains over the Southern Rockies and Four Corners on monsoon moisture and already-wet soils.

Hotspot 1 — Upper Ohio Valley into central New York

This is the live Slight contour. SPC expects widely scattered thunderstorms along and ahead of the front from parts of Ohio into western New York by mid-afternoon, then a quick eastward sweep across the upper Ohio Valley into the Northeast. Population centers inside the Slight: Pittsburgh, Rochester, Akron, Syracuse, Canton. Marginal ring includes Columbus, Cincinnati, Buffalo, Dayton, Albany.

Counties to watch: Allegheny, Beaver, Butler, Westmoreland, and neighboring southwest Pennsylvania counties; Summit, Stark, Portage, and adjacent northeast Ohio counties; Monroe, Livingston, Ontario, Onondaga, and neighboring western and central New York counties. Lake-effect is not the story — this is a progressive cold-front band.

Restoration read: wind first. Stage tarps, generators, and tree crews before dark even without a watch. If a warning includes heavy rain on soils already wet from Saturday, treat the same ZIP as a water job by morning. Photograph roofs in remaining daylight only if it is safe.

Hotspot 2 — Southern New England flood leftover plus Mid-Atlantic runoff

WPC’s Slight Risk for excessive rainfall over the Northeast is the second desk. Discussion from the 0748 UTC Sunday package: precipitable water up to about 2.25 inches, efficient rainfall rates, and concern for Long Island and coastal Connecticut and Rhode Island through mid-to-late morning into afternoon before the axis exits offshore. Flash Flood Warning text earlier Sunday covered eastern Worcester County, Maryland, including Ocean City and Berlin, with 1–2 inches already down and rates near 2 inches in 30 minutes. That warning window closed in the morning; the afternoon desk treats it as runoff and urban ponding unless a new warning fires.

Saturday’s heavy rain is still in Appalachian channels. Overnight and early-Sunday Flood Warning and Flash Flood Statement text from Charleston, West Virginia, and Pittsburgh referenced lingering high water after 1–6 inches Saturday in pieces of Kanawha, Clay, Braxton, Gilmer, Lewis, Harrison, Doddridge, and southern Clarion County, Pennsylvania. Those are aftermath tickets, not a new Slight Risk.

Restoration read: southern New England is today’s water if cells trained this morning. West Virginia and western Pennsylvania are yesterday’s water still in the street and the basement. Do not send the same crew to both stories without checking which county actually has a warning now.

Hotspot 3 — High Plains scatter and Central Plains flood overnight

SPC keeps isolated strong-to-severe storms possible across parts of the central and northern High Plains this afternoon and evening — southern Wyoming, northeast Colorado, and the Nebraska Panhandle in a modest upslope regime — then elevated storms increasing over western and central South Dakota toward the mid-Missouri Valley late tonight. Hail and gusts are the local threats, not a watch-scale line.

WPC’s second Slight Risk sits on the Central Plains overnight. Guidance favors eastern Kansas and western Missouri, including low-to-moderate chances of more than 3 inches near the Kansas City metro in some 00Z HREF members. That is a Monday-morning extraction desk if cells train on the front.

Restoration read: High Plains is isolated hail and wind. Kansas City–eastern Kansas–western Missouri is the overnight flood watch list, not this afternoon’s Ohio Valley wind list.

Just hit

Saturday’s (September 12, 1200 UTC through Sunday 1159 UTC) preliminary LSRs are already tickets. Kansas carried the hardest wind: Chanute Martin Johnson Airport logged 84 mph at 0545 UTC Sunday; Chanute dispatch reported power outages and tree branches; utility poles went down near Galesburg in Neosho County. Clark County, Kansas, mesonet gusts reached 75 mph near Acres. Cherokee County, Kansas, saw a hangar roof collapse near Hallowell and 70 mph estimated at West Mineral. Perryton, Texas, had 6–8 power poles snapped south of town and an uprooted tree. Kingfisher County, Oklahoma, reported snapped wooden poles and 60–70 mph gusts near Cashion.

Hail: golf-ball (1.75 inch) at Beatrice, Nebraska, and Randall, Kansas; 2.00 inch near Coldwater and Wilmore in south-central Kansas; walnut-size at Holdrege, Nebraska. Pennsylvania already had tree-and-wire work Saturday afternoon across Washington, Allegheny, Jefferson, Westmoreland, Indiana, and Greene counties — including a tree on a house near Spraggs. A landspout was reported near Palm Coast, Florida, and an EF-0 survey was completed east of Spring Grove, Virginia. Those are closed survey items, not today’s Slight Risk.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS level	Status this afternoon
Upper OH Valley / SW PA / central NY	Damaging wind, lightning, isolated hail	SPC Slight (2000 UTC)	Live outlook — no watch
Columbus–Cincinnati–Buffalo ring	Isolated strong wind	SPC Marginal	Conditional
Long Island / coastal CT–RI–SE MA	Flash flood, urban ponding	WPC Slight ERO	Winding down late afternoon
Eastern KS / western MO	Training heavy rain overnight	WPC Slight ERO	Tonight into Monday morning
High Plains / western SD	Isolated hail and gusts	SPC isolated / Marginal	Afternoon–overnight scatter
Four Corners / S Rockies	Heavy rain on wet soils	WPC Marginal	Monsoon-style cells
Saturday KS–OK–TX / PA trees	Wind, hail, trees, poles	LSRs logged	Aftermath / tickets
Atlantic / Gulf vs. U.S. mainland	No landfalling tropical cyclone	NHC quiet Atlantic	Quiet

What this means for restoration teams

A Slight Risk without a watch is still a staffing problem. The corridor from northeast Ohio through southwest Pennsylvania into Rochester and Syracuse can produce a few 58–65 mph gust swaths, trees on service drops, and isolated hail even if coverage stays widely scattered. Saturday’s 84 mph Chanute gust and snapped poles in Neosho, Cherokee, Kingfisher, and Ochiltree counties are already claims. Southern New England and Appalachian runoff is extraction and drying, not a new wind line.

For teams in the Slight: stage before the first warning, not after. Property owners should photograph damage in daylight if it is safe, call the carrier, and start extraction the same night if water is inside. Turn around on flooded Appalachian and Delmarva roads — Saturday and early-Sunday warnings already documented closed pavement.

What this is not

This is not a regional derecho and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. The National Hurricane Center afternoon page showed no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic. Tropical Storm Norbert was moving west over the open eastern Pacific near 18.2°N, 132.7°W with 50 mph winds — not a U.S. land threat. Do not invent a watch that SPC has not issued. The work today, if it verifies, will be scattered: a wind swath through an Ohio, Pennsylvania, or New York county, leftover flood tickets from Saturday, and a possible overnight rain pulse toward Kansas City.

Looking ahead

SPC Day 2 Convective Outlook issued 12:29 p.m. CDT Sunday (valid 12 UTC Monday through 12 UTC Tuesday) places a Slight Risk from southeast Nebraska into western Iowa. Summary language: scattered strong to severe thunderstorms late Monday afternoon into early evening near Omaha, Lincoln, Des Moines, Council Bluffs, and Ames, with a Marginal ring toward Sioux City, Waterloo, and Grand Island. That is Monday’s desk. Tonight’s Ohio Valley–New York band should weaken after dark.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources dated Sunday, September 13, 2026: NOAA Storm Prediction Center 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook; SPC current watches page (none valid); SPC current mesoscale discussions page (none in effect); SPC today’s storm reports (none received in the 13/1200–14/1159 UTC window at afternoon check) and September 12 LSR list; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook updated 0748 UTC; National Hurricane Center public page (no Atlantic tropical cyclones; TS Norbert over the eastern Pacific); National Weather Service watches/warnings text feed.

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watch, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay. Morning desk for this calendar day: Storm Updates: Ohio Valley–Northeast Marginal Risk, Kansas Wind Aftermath — Sunday, September 13, 2026 (Morning).

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

September 13, 2026

Storm Updates: Ohio Valley–Northeast Marginal Risk, Kansas Wind Aftermath — Sunday, September 13, 2026 (Morning)

This is a live Sunday morning snapshot of local storm-type events across the United States as of the early hours of Sunday, September 13, 2026. Overnight into this morning the south-central Plains watch expired. Severe Thunderstorm Watch 667 is no longer valid. The Storm Prediction Center 1300 UTC Day 1 outlook holds a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of the Ohio Valley into the Northeast, and a second Marginal Risk across the central and northern High Plains, valid 131300Z–141200Z.

These remain county- and ZIP-scale thunderstorms, not a mainland hurricane landfall. Restoration exposure this morning is leftover Kansas wind and hail from last night, plus an afternoon wind corridor from Ohio into western New York and the Northeast if the front organizes. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What is live this morning

No convective watches are currently valid. The most recently issued watch was Watch 667, covering portions of southwest Kansas, Oklahoma, and the Texas Panhandle through 10:00 p.m. CDT Saturday. That watch is expired. SPC’s 0744 AM CDT Sunday discussion (Gleason/Lyons) expects isolated to scattered thunderstorms along and ahead of a cold front by mid-afternoon (around 19–22Z) from parts of Ohio into western New York, then spreading quickly east across the upper Ohio Valley into the Northeast.

Deep-layer shear of 35–45 kt is enough for supercells at first and a marginal, isolated hail threat despite poor lapse rates aloft. Clusters and bowing segments with isolated damaging wind are the more likely mode once linear forcing of the front takes over. Confidence is too low for higher wind probabilities. Convection should weaken this evening as it moves into a less unstable airmass.

A separate Marginal Risk sits from northeast Colorado into southeast Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle late afternoon, with elevated storms possible later tonight across western and central South Dakota toward the mid-Missouri Valley. Isolated hail and wind are the language there, not a watch.

Hotspot 1 — Upper Ohio Valley into the Northeast

This is today’s live outlook corridor, not a live watch. A surface cold front tracks east under a strengthening west-southwesterly mid-level jet. Seasonably moist low-level air is in place, but poor mid-level lapse rates and cloud cover should keep instability marginal. That is why this is a Marginal Risk and not a Slight.

Cities and counties to watch this afternoon and evening: Columbus, Cleveland, Cincinnati, Dayton, and neighboring Ohio counties; Pittsburgh and the western Pennsylvania ridge; Buffalo and western New York; the northern West Virginia panhandle. SPC lists a Day 1 Marginal footprint of about 163,000 square miles and roughly 22.7 million people, with Columbus, Cleveland, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, and Buffalo named in the risk-area list.

Bands of precipitation with embedded thunderstorms were already ongoing this morning across New Jersey into southern New York and New England. Most guidance keeps that activity elevated over land. Trends still get monitored for any surface-based instability over Long Island and southern New England.

Restoration read: wind first if cells organize after 3 p.m. local. Stage tarps and tree crews in the Ohio–Pennsylvania–western New York strip before late afternoon, not after the first warning. Water is secondary unless a cell trains on ground already wet from Saturday’s Ohio Valley–Mid-Atlantic rain.

Hotspot 2 — Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas Panhandle just-hit

Watch 667 is the overnight ticket, not today’s new watch. Preliminary SPC local storm reports from the 12 UTC Saturday–12 UTC Sunday window include 2.00-inch hail north of Coldwater in Comanche County, Kansas, and northwest of Wilmore in Kiowa County around 0010–0015 UTC; golf-ball hail earlier near Beatrice, Nebraska, and Randall, Kansas; and measured wind of 84 mph at Chanute Martin Johnson Airport (KCNU) at 0545 UTC, with power outages and tree branches down in Chanute and utility poles near Galesburg in Neosho County. Additional measured gusts of 75 mph on the Kansas mesonet east-southeast of Acres in Clark County, 64 mph near Darrouzett in Lipscomb County, Texas, and snapped poles and a grain auger south of Perryton, Texas, sit in the same family.

Those are already claims. Photograph in daylight if it is safe. The new work today, if it verifies after 13 UTC Sunday, is isolated damaging wind on the Ohio Valley–Northeast Marginal Risk plus isolated High Plains hail and wind.

Hotspot 3 — High Plains and leftover water

A closed mid- and upper-level low over the Pacific Northwest this morning moves toward the northern Rockies and High Plains. Destabilization is limited. A narrow upslope corridor from northeast Colorado into southeast Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle is the afternoon cell area. Elevated storms may increase later tonight over western and central South Dakota toward the mid-Missouri Valley, with isolated hail on the first development.

Saturday’s Weather Prediction Center Day 1 excessive-rainfall outlook carried a Slight Risk over portions of the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and southern Arizona, with the northern New Jersey–New York City–Long Island piece weighted toward late Saturday night into Sunday. That water is already in streets, small streams, and some interiors. Treat leftover flood statements as aftermath, not a new national headline, and check the current WPC Day 1 map and local NWS flood products before you assign a crew.

Just hit

Saturday’s Kansas–Oklahoma Slight Risk and Watch 667 produced the hail and wind listed above. Pennsylvania tree and wire reports from Saturday afternoon in Washington, Allegheny, Westmoreland, Indiana, Jefferson, and Greene counties are already on the books from the previous flood-and-wind pulse. A Flagler County, Florida, landspout near Palm Coast and an EF-0 survey east of Spring Grove in Surry County, Virginia, are local Saturday reports, not today’s organized corridor.

The National Hurricane Center discussion this morning shows no named tropical cyclone threatening U.S. land. The Atlantic remains quiet for a named-storm landfall. A central Atlantic wave is being monitored at low odds and is not a U.S. mainland desk item this morning.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS level	Status this morning
Upper OH Valley / Northeast	Isolated damaging wind, brief hail	SPC Marginal (Day 1 1300 UTC)	Outlook live; no watch
Central / northern High Plains	Isolated hail and wind	SPC Marginal	Late afternoon into tonight
SW Kansas / Oklahoma / TX Panhandle	Wind to 84 mph, 2-inch hail overnight	Watch 667 expired	Just-hit / claims
OH Valley–Mid-Atlantic water	Flash flood leftover from Saturday Slight ERO	Local flood products	Aftermath; verify county
Atlantic / Gulf vs. U.S. mainland	No landfalling named storm	NHC quiet on the coast	Quiet

What this means for restoration teams

An 84 mph airport gust and snapped poles are roof, siding, tree-on-structure, and service-drop work in Neosho, Comanche, Kiowa, Clark, and neighboring Kansas counties plus the Perryton, Texas, corridor. Two-inch hail is vehicle and roof claims on a narrow path. Today’s Ohio Valley–Northeast Marginal Risk is a thinner wind desk: isolated gusts, not a regional derecho. Staff it as county warnings, not a multi-state surge.

Water from Saturday night into Sunday morning along the I-95 and upper Ohio Valley axis is a 24–48 hour mold clock if it is already inside. Do not send the same crew to Chanute wind and a Pittsburgh or northern New Jersey water job without checking which county still has a warning.

What this is not

This is not a live severe thunderstorm watch and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. The work this morning is leftover Kansas and Texas Panhandle wind and hail. The work this afternoon, if it comes, will be scattered wind along the front from Ohio into the Northeast and isolated High Plains cells. That is the local-storm pattern this desk should staff.

Looking ahead

Monday (Day 2) the SPC has a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms late afternoon into evening across parts of eastern Nebraska into western and central Iowa — an isolated severe storm or two, and perhaps a small organizing cluster, near Omaha, Lincoln, Council Bluffs, and Ames. Destabilization along a northward-retreating front remains the uncertainty. Watch the next Storm Tracker update rather than assuming Sunday’s Marginal Risk is the last line of the week.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center Sep 13, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook; SPC current watches page (no watches valid as of 0814 UTC Sunday; most recently issued watch 667); SPC today’s storm reports for the 20260912 1200 UTC–20260913 1159 UTC window; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook language covering Saturday into early Sunday; National Hurricane Center Atlantic tropical weather discussion 1215 UTC Sunday; National Weather Service warning text for Wichita, Dodge City, Amarillo, Cleveland, Pittsburgh, Buffalo, and neighboring offices.

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watch, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay. Prior desk: Saturday afternoon, September 12 storm updates (Watch 667).

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

September 13, 2026

Storm Updates: Kansas–Oklahoma Watch 667, Ohio Valley Flood Pulse — Saturday, September 12, 2026

This is a live Saturday afternoon snapshot of local storm-type events across the United States as of Saturday, September 12, 2026. The organized pulse is on the south-central Plains. The Storm Prediction Center holds a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of the south-central Plains into the Ozarks, and Severe Thunderstorm Watch 667 is in effect from 3:45 p.m. until 10:00 p.m. CDT for portions of southwest Kansas, Oklahoma, and the Texas Panhandle. Farther east, the Weather Prediction Center keeps a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic. Tropical Storm Norbert is over the open eastern Pacific and is not a U.S. land threat.

These are county- and ZIP-scale thunderstorms, not a mainland hurricane landfall. Restoration exposure this afternoon and evening is wind-driven roof and siding work, isolated large hail, trees on service drops, and interior water where cells train over already-wet ground in the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What is live this afternoon

Watch 667 covers southwest Kansas, Oklahoma, and the Texas Panhandle through 10:00 p.m. CDT. Primary threat language from SPC: scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80 mph, plus isolated very large hail to 2 inches. Tornado probability in the watch is low. The 2000 UTC Day 1 outlook, issued 3:00 p.m. CDT Saturday, expanded the Slight Risk southwest across parts of western Oklahoma after satellite showed agitated cumulus and isolated initiation along a remnant outflow. Temperatures of 102–104°F south of the wind shift support severe-caliber downdrafts if clusters organize.

Mesoscale Discussion 2286, issued 2:52 p.m. CDT, flagged southern Kansas into northwest Oklahoma as watch-likely before the watch went up. Most probable peak gusts in that discussion were 65–80 mph; most probable peak hail 1.50–2.50 inches. MD 2287 followed on a severe-potential, watch-possible track as storms tried to fill in.

WPC’s Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, valid 12 UTC Saturday through 12 UTC Sunday, keeps a Slight Risk over the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic. That language is flood first, wind second: 2.0–2.25 inch precipitable water along I-95 from Richmond toward Philadelphia, with a higher-end Slight pocket in the upper Ohio Valley where flash-flood guidance is under 2 inches in northern West Virginia and western Pennsylvania. Central Plains stay Marginal for excessive rain. Florida remains in a localized urban-flood environment on 2.0–2.25 inch precipitable water.

The official SPC Local Storm Report list for the 12 UTC Saturday through 12 UTC Sunday window was still empty as of mid-afternoon, which is expected this early in the convective day. SPC’s same-day report-trend plot on the homepage was already counting preliminary tornado, wind, and hail ticks as storms started to fire. Treat those as unofficial until they land on the LSR page.

Hotspot 1 — Southwest Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas Panhandle

This is the live watch. Storms are expected to increase and intensify near an outflow boundary across Oklahoma and near a front across Kansas and the eastern Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. SPC notes a narrow corridor of 2,000–3,500 J/kg MLCAPE, 30–40 kt of deep-layer shear, and steep mid-level lapse rates that support isolated 2-inch hail before storms cluster. Higher-based convection in the hot mixed layer favors wind over tornadoes.

Cities and counties to watch: Wichita, Hutchinson, and Emporia in Kansas; Enid, Ponca City, and the Oklahoma City metro fringe; Alva to Chandler along the watch axis; Amarillo and the eastern Texas Panhandle. Neighboring offices: Dodge City, Wichita, Norman, Tulsa, Amarillo.

Restoration read: wind and hail first. Stage tarps, generators, and glass/roof crews before dark. A 75–80 mph gust on a well-mixed 104°F afternoon is a tree-and-roof ticket, not a regional catastrophe. Photograph roofs in remaining daylight only if it is safe.

Hotspot 2 — Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic flood pulse

This is the water desk, not the watch desk. WPC holds a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall from the upper Ohio Valley through the Mid-Atlantic. HREF signals in the morning discussion showed moderate-to-high chances of 3-hour and 6-hour flash-flood guidance exceedance in the upper Ohio Valley, and 20–40 percent chances of 3-hour totals over 2 inches from the Richmond area late Saturday into the Delaware Valley and southern New Jersey Saturday night. The Slight Risk was extended north through eastern Pennsylvania, northern New Jersey, and into the New York City metro and lower Long Island for late Saturday night into Sunday.

SPC keeps a Marginal Risk of isolated damaging wind with loosely organized clusters in the upper Ohio Valley this afternoon. That is secondary to the flood overlay.

Cities and counties to watch: Pittsburgh and western Pennsylvania; northern West Virginia; Columbus–Dayton corridor on the wind-marginal fringe; Richmond, Baltimore, Philadelphia, and the I-95 urban core Saturday night.

Restoration read: extraction and drying if cells train. Urban streets, underpasses, and small streams fail first. Do not treat this as the same story as Watch 667. Different hazard, different crew mix.

Hotspot 3 — North Georgia leftover water and Plains scatter

National Weather Service Peachtree City issued multiple Flash Flood Warnings this morning for Cobb, DeKalb, Douglas, Fulton, Carroll, and Paulding counties, including Atlanta, Marietta, Sandy Springs, Douglasville, and Villa Rica. Radar-indicated totals of 1–4 inches were already on the ground in those products, with additional 1–3 inches possible in the warned windows. Some of those warnings expired by mid-afternoon; the water is still in the street and in the buildings. That is already a ticket, not a new watch.

Elsewhere, isolated strong-to-severe cells remain possible on the edges of the Slight Risk into the Ozarks and on the hot High Plains. Florida stays a local urban-flood and lightning desk on deep tropical moisture. A Flash Flood Watch remains up over the Paradise and Hagen burn scar in northeast Oregon and southeast Washington from Saturday afternoon through Sunday evening — debris-flow country, not a CAT event.

Just hit

Friday’s official LSR window (12 UTC September 11 through 12 UTC September 12) is the last closed book. Preliminary reports included a tornado touchdown 7 miles northeast of Artichoke, Minnesota, plus golf-ball hail near Artichoke and Alberta in Stevens County, Minnesota. Wind and hail also hit Tarrant County, Texas (Arlington–Mansfield trees, poles, and up to 1.75-inch hail), Bexar County, Texas (golf-ball hail near Converse and Kirby), and a long tree-down swath through South Carolina, Virginia, and North Carolina. Those are already claims. Today’s new work, if it verifies after 12 UTC Saturday, is Watch 667 wind and hail plus Ohio Valley–Mid-Atlantic water.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS level	Status this afternoon
SW Kansas / Oklahoma / TX Panhandle	Damaging wind to 80 mph, isolated 2-inch hail	Slight + Watch 667 to 10 p.m. CDT	Live watch
Ohio Valley / Mid-Atlantic	Flash flood, training heavy rain, isolated wind	WPC Slight excessive rainfall; SPC Marginal wind	Tonight into Sunday morning
North Georgia metro	Urban flash flood leftover from morning warnings	FFW earlier today	Aftermath / still in street
Ozarks / central Plains fringe	Isolated hail and wind	SPC Marginal	Scattered
NE Oregon / SE Washington burn scar	Flash flood / debris flow	Flash Flood Watch through Sunday evening	Local hydrologic
Atlantic / Gulf vs. U.S. mainland	No landfalling tropical cyclone	Quiet on the mainland coast	Quiet (Norbert open EPAC)

What this means for restoration teams

Wind at 65–80 mph is roof, siding, gutter, and tree-on-structure work. Isolated 2-inch hail is broken glass and pitted panels in a narrow swath, not a statewide event. Heavy rain on the Ohio Valley–Mid-Atlantic Slight Risk is wet drywall and a 24–48 hour mold clock. Atlanta-metro water from this morning is already inside some buildings.

For teams in or near Watch 667: stage before 5 p.m. CDT, not after the first warning. Property owners should photograph damage in daylight if it is safe, call the carrier, and start extraction the same night if water is inside. Do not send the same crew to Oklahoma wind and Pittsburgh water without checking which county actually has a warning now.

What this is not

This is not a regional derecho and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. Tropical Storm Norbert is expected to dissipate east-southeast of Hawaii by midweek and is not a CONUS or Hawaii landfall problem on this desk. The work tonight, if it comes, will be scattered: a wind or hail swath through a Kansas or Oklahoma county, a flooded intersection where Ohio Valley or Mid-Atlantic cells train, leftover urban water in metro Atlanta. That is the local-storm pattern this desk should staff.

Looking ahead

Sunday, SPC Day 2 is a Marginal Risk of strong storms with small to marginally severe hail and locally damaging wind from the Ohio Valley to the Northeast. Coverage is uncertain. Monday, Day 3 adds a small Slight Risk across eastern Nebraska into western Iowa. Watch the next Storm Tracker update rather than assuming Watch 667 is the last line of the weekend.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources, all date-stamped Saturday, September 12, 2026: NOAA Storm Prediction Center 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook; Severe Thunderstorm Watch 667; Mesoscale Discussions 2286 and 2287; SPC today and September 11 Local Storm Reports; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook issued 3:39 a.m. EDT; National Weather Service warning text including Peachtree City flash-flood products; National Hurricane Center public advisory on Tropical Storm Norbert (open eastern Pacific, no U.S. land threat).

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watch, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay. Morning desk for this calendar day: Saturday morning Storm Updates. Related desk: Friday afternoon Storm Updates.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

September 12, 2026