Category: Storm Tracker

Storm briefs and active weather that restoration crews plan around.

Flash Flood Warning: Jeff Davis County Area Until 4:45 PM CDT
Active Flash Flood Warning for East Central Jeff Davis County, TX — issued by NWS Midland/Odessa TX at 3:07 PM CDT, in effect until 4:45 PM CDT (2:45 PM PDT).

Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Between 1.5 and 2.5 inches of rain have fallen. Additional rainfall amounts up to 0.5 inches are possible in the warned area. This is exactly the profile that produces the interior-flooding jobs restoration teams see most: water finding its way into homes and businesses through every low point, drainage systems overwhelmed, and saturated ground that keeps feeding the damage long after the rain stops.

This is a live snapshot as of 1:16 PM PDT. Conditions change fast — always verify with the National Weather Service for your specific county or ZIP code.

East Central Jeff Davis County, TX — Flash Flood Warning

The NWS Midland/Odessa TX issued this Flash Flood Warning at 3:07 PM CDT, in effect until 4:45 PM CDT. Coverage: east central Jeff Davis County in southwestern Texas.

What the radar shows: Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Between 1.5 and 2.5 inches of rain have fallen. Additional rainfall amounts up to 0.5 inches are possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly.

HAZARD: Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE: Radar indicated.

IMPACT: Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor drainage and low-lying areas.

Locations that will experience flash flooding: Buffalo Trail Scout Camp, Star Mountain and Black Mountain.

NWS headline note: this is a continuation (remains in effect) — the warning was already in effect and continues until 4:45 PM CDT.

Primary sources: the NWS alert and the NWS Midland/Odessa TX forecast office page.

Stay safe right now

Turn around, don’t drown. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles — never drive through flooded roadways. Six inches of fast-moving water can knock an adult down; a foot of water can float most cars; two feet can carry away a truck. If you encounter a flooded road, find another route.

If water enters your home: stay out of standing water where electricity may be present; avoid the basement until the water recedes and the power is confirmed off; photograph everything before any cleanup — that documentation is what an insurance claim runs on — then call a local restoration contractor. Water left sitting starts a second wave of damage within a day: saturated materials breed mold, warp finishes, and wick up walls far beyond the visible waterline.

Heed the warning’s own instructions: In hilly terrain there are hundreds of low water crossings which are potentially dangerous in heavy rain. Do not attempt to cross flooded roads. Find an alternate route. Flooding is occurring or is imminent. Campers and hikers should avoid streams or creeks.

What this means for restoration teams

This warning sits in the Davis Mountains country of West Texas — hilly, rugged, and cut by hundreds of low-water crossings that can turn from dusty ranch roads into killers in a single cloudburst. The Buffalo Trail Scout Camp, Star Mountain, and Black Mountain names in the warning path mean outdoor and transient populations are in the hazard zone: campers and hikers, people on the move, vehicles crossing drainages that were dry an hour earlier.

The damage profile of a flash flood warning like this is the bread and butter of water-mitigation work: interior water intrusion through doors, vents, and low walls; saturated drywall and insulation that won’t dry on its own; mold risk inside 24–48 hours if wet materials sit; sewage or stormwater backup where drainage is overwhelmed; and in hilly country, undermined driveways, culverts, and access roads that turn a simple extraction call into a logistics problem.

The play: stage equipment now rather than after the first call. Pre-position air movers, dehumidifiers, and extraction gear toward the warned corridor; keep an on-call rotation through the evening because water-intrusion calls typically start within hours of the water receding and keep coming for days as people discover damage — the tenant who finds a soaked closet, the vacation-rental manager doing post-weekend checks, the homeowner who thought the carpet would dry on its own.

Field discipline: photo-document everything before mitigation starts; moisture-map every affected room (water migrates farther than the eye line suggests); capture the address, the water source, and the affected areas on the very first call; and keep the homeowner’s payment responsibility clear in writing before work starts. In a fast-moving multi-call afternoon, the first-call notes are what keep a clean job clean.

FEMA & federal assistance

If your home or business takes water damage, federal help may be available once the immediate danger passes. The FEMA Helpline is 1-800-621-3362 (7 a.m.–10 p.m. local time, 7 days a week). You can also apply at DisasterAssistance.gov, through the FEMA mobile app, or find a local Disaster Recovery Center at fema.gov/drc.

Basic eligibility generally requires U.S. citizenship or qualified non-citizen status, identity verification, proof of occupancy or ownership of the damaged property, and unmet needs not covered by insurance. Apply as soon as it’s safe to do so — federal assistance timelines move faster when applications are in early.

Looking ahead

The warning is scheduled to expire at 4:45 PM CDT (2:45 PM PDT), but expiring warnings don’t mean the water disappears on schedule. In flash-flood terrain, creeks and low crossings can crest after the warning lifts, and a second round of storms can re-trigger flooding over ground that’s already saturated — the later Texas and New Mexico warnings today show exactly how one afternoon can stack multiple rounds.

Watch the NWS Midland/Odessa TX office page through the evening for updates, extensions, or a new warning polygon, and keep an eye on radar for training storms over the same area. For restoration teams, the demand window opens as the water recedes: the first calls come from people standing in it, the longer tail comes from people who discover it — and the second wave of calls after a flash flood can run for days.

Sources & how to verify
- NWS alert (issued 3:07 PM CDT, expires 4:45 PM CDT) — read 1:16 PM PDT
- NWS Midland/Odessa TX forecast office — read 1:16 PM PDT
To verify for your own county or ZIP: go to weather.gov, enter your ZIP, or open the forecast-office page for your area and check the current watches, warnings, and advisories.

This post is for informational purposes and is not an official weather warning. Always follow instructions from local authorities and the National Weather Service.
September 19, 2026

Storm Updates: Kansas Slight Risk + Midwest–Montana Flood Moderate — Saturday, September 19, 2026 (Morning)

This is a live Saturday morning snapshot of U.S. local-storm activity as of early Saturday, September 19, 2026. Overnight convection left trees and wires down across the Carolinas and Upstate South Carolina, dumped 1.00–1.50-inch hail on the Utah Wasatch Front and Four Corners, and produced brief tornado or landspout reports near Fruit Heights and Uintah County, Utah. This morning the organized work is water: flash-flood warnings and just-hit rain of 3 to 7.5 inches in southeastern Minnesota and northeastern Iowa, with a Weather Prediction Center Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall still draped over eastern Iowa, northern Illinois, and northern Indiana, plus a second Moderate pocket over southern Montana.

The Storm Prediction Center 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook holds a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of the central Plains, valid 1300Z Saturday through 1200Z Sunday. Summary language: scattered severe wind gusts and large hail this afternoon and evening, focused on Kansas. No convective watches are currently valid. The most recently issued watch was #0669, now expired. There are no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, eastern Pacific, or central Pacific. A subtropical Atlantic disturbance near the Azores is not a U.S. land threat.

These are county- and ZIP-scale thunderstorms and flash-flood pulses, not a mainland hurricane landfall. Restoration exposure today is interior water where overnight cores trained, then late-day Kansas wind and hail if the Slight Risk verifies. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What is live this morning

No SPC severe thunderstorm or tornado watch is up at 12:23 UTC Saturday. Friday’s Carolina wind pulse and Utah/Four Corners convection are yesterday’s tickets now sitting as LSRs. What is still live is hydrologic: overnight Flash Flood Warnings for southern Fillmore County, Minnesota; Clayton and Fayette Counties, Iowa; and Dubuque, Jackson, Jo Daviess, and Stephenson Counties on the Iowa–Illinois line. La Crosse and Quad Cities language overnight cited 1–3 inches already down in the Iowa warnings and 3–7.5 inches in the Minnesota flood statements, with a mudslide reported on Highway 76 west of Caledonia and water over the road at Beaver Creek Valley State Park.

Flood Watches remain through Sunday morning across portions of southwest and south-central Michigan, northern Indiana, and northwest Ohio. A separate Flood Watch covers south-central and southeast Montana and Sheridan County, Wyoming, through Sunday afternoon, including burn-scar flash-flood language. Heat Advisories continue into this evening over parts of southeast Kansas and central through southwest Missouri, with heat-index values near 100–105°F — that is a crew-safety overlay on the same Plains corridor that later gets the Slight Risk.

Hotspot 1 — Central Plains Slight Risk (Kansas axis)

This is today’s new severe desk. The 1300Z outlook, issued 7:25 a.m. CDT by Smith/Mead, places a Slight Risk over parts of the central Plains. The 15-percent hail contour covers about 34,700 square miles and 1.33 million people, with larger centers listed as Wichita, Topeka, Lawrence, Salina, and Manhattan. The 15-percent wind contour is a bit larger and also takes in St. Joseph, Missouri. A categorical intensity-level-1 wind overlay (60–75 mph gusts) sits where HREF guidance, precipitable water, and steep low-level lapse rates overlap. A 5-percent wind area fans out as far as Denver, Kansas City, Indianapolis, Cincinnati, and Atlanta — that is the isolated-gust envelope, not the Slight Risk core.

A cold front still runs west-southwest to east-northeast from the central High Plains to the mid-Mississippi Valley and will ease south. Seasonably moist air ahead of it over Kansas, Missouri, and northwestern Oklahoma should become moderately unstable by mid-afternoon. Storms are expected late afternoon into early evening as CIN erodes. Steep 0–3 km lapse rates (8.5–9.5°C/km) favor vigorous cores and evaporative cooling. A few short-lived supercells are possible in the Kansas vicinity given adequate speed and directional shear. Large hail rides with the stronger updrafts. The threat should diminish during the evening.

Farther west, models still build storms near and east of I-25 this afternoon, then grow a loosely organized band — including some supercells — into a linear cluster crossing eastern Colorado into western Kansas. Fifteen-percent wind probabilities were added over eastern Colorado for that mode. Low severe-wind probabilities continue into western Kansas late evening if the cluster holds together.

Cities and counties to watch: Wichita, Hutchinson, Salina, Manhattan, Topeka, Lawrence, and the I-70 / I-35 corridor in Kansas; St. Joseph and the western Missouri fringe; eastern Colorado Front Range and High Plains east of I-25; Amarillo and Enid sit in the broader wind-probability field but are not the Slight Risk bullseye.

Restoration read: stage tarps and glass/roof kits for late afternoon, not after the first warning. Hail on the 15-percent contour is vehicle and shingle work. Wind at 60–75 mph is trees on service drops and isolated roof peel. Do not let the Heat Advisory talk you out of hydration and early staging — that air mass is the same one feeding the storms.

Hotspot 2 — Midwest Moderate excessive rainfall (already hitting)

WPC’s Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, updated 0844 UTC Saturday and valid 12Z Saturday through 12Z Sunday, maintains a Moderate Risk over portions of the Midwest, particularly eastern Iowa, northern Illinois, and northern Indiana. That is the same corridor that took overnight Flash Flood Warnings. Additional 1–2 inches were still possible in the Iowa–Illinois warnings as of 4:19–5:54 a.m. CDT. Flood Watches through Sunday morning over southwest Michigan, northern Indiana, and northwest Ohio keep the water story open after the current warnings expire.

Southeastern Minnesota is the just-hit core: 4–7.5 inches in Fillmore and Mower Counties with flooding on Highway 16 between Wayland and Peterson, water over County 57 / Minnesota 56, trees washed onto Highway 43 from south Rushford to Bratsberg, and I-90 between mile markers 193 and 204 in the statement footprint. Houston County statements cited 5–7 inches and a mudslide west of Caledonia. Those are extraction and roadway-closure jobs already on the books.

River flooding leftover from earlier in the week still sits on the Saint Marys and Wabash in northeast Indiana and northwest Ohio, with moderate flooding forecast near Decatur and Fort Wayne. That is channel water, not this morning’s flash-flood cores.

Restoration read: Minnesota–northeast Iowa–northwest Illinois is today’s water ticket. Photograph interiors in remaining daylight only if it is safe. The Moderate Risk means another training band can reload the same ZIPs this afternoon. Do not send the Kansas hail crew and the Dubuque water crew as one story.

Hotspot 3 — Southern Montana Moderate flood + High Plains leftover wind

WPC upgraded parts of southern Montana to a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall. Discussion cited anomalously high moisture, a slow-moving mid-upper low, and deterministic QPF near 3.5 inches with high-end CAM scenarios of localized 7–8 inches if instability verifies. NWS Billings holds a Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for all of south-central and southeast Montana and Sheridan County, Wyoming, with explicit burn-scar flash-flood language. A separate Flood Watch covers a slice of northeast Montana (Dawson, Garfield, Petroleum, Prairie, Wibaux).

Overnight High Plains wind already verified on the west side of this pattern: 66 mph near Burlington, Colorado; 67 mph southeast of Evansville, Wyoming; 63 mph northwest of Ruleton, Kansas; 69 mph north-northwest of McDonald, Kansas; 64 mph north of Hastings, Nebraska; trees and snapped poles in Cheyenne County, Kansas. Those are Friday night LSRs, not a live watch.

Restoration read: Montana is a flood-and-burn-scar desk, not a wind desk. High Plains wind damage from last night is already on the ground in western Kansas and eastern Colorado. Today’s new wind threat there is the late-day cluster coming off the Front Range.

Just hit

Friday’s Carolinas–Georgia Marginal Risk verified as a wind pulse. Official LSRs include a 69 mph gust at Greensboro (GSO) and 66 mph at Fayetteville (KFAY), plus a long string of trees and wires down from Davie, Guilford, Randolph, Iredell, Rowan, Chatham, Moore, Johnston, Wake, Cumberland, Harnett, Catawba, and Pender Counties in North Carolina into York, Spartanburg, Greenville, Pickens, and Anderson Counties in South Carolina. Shingles and siding damage was reported west-southwest of Statesville. A landspout lofted debris at Lighthouse Point, Broward County, Florida, mid-afternoon Friday. That is a local Florida ticket, not the national headline.

Utah and the Four Corners took the hail and brief-tornado reports: 1.50-inch hail at Kaysville and west of Farmington, Davis County; 1.00-inch hail at Farmington, New Mexico, and Dinosaur / Massadona, Moffat County, Colorado; a tornado report near Fruit Heights, Davis County, from video showing rotation and lofted debris; a landspout report 15 miles east-southeast of Naples, Uintah County. Those cells are down. The work is already there.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS / WPC level	Status this morning
Central / eastern Kansas	Severe wind 60–75 mph, large hail, short-lived supercells	SPC Slight (1300Z)	Outlook only — no watch yet
Eastern CO into western KS	Damaging gusts as storms go linear	15% wind / isolated severe	Late afternoon–evening
E Iowa / N Illinois / N Indiana	Flash flood, training rain	WPC Moderate ERO	Live overnight FFWs; risk continues
SE Minnesota (Fillmore, Houston, Mower)	Just-hit 4–7.5″ rain, roads, mudslide	FFW / flood warning overnight	Aftermath + residual water
SW MI / N IN / NW OH	Additional flooding possible	Flood Watch through Sunday morning	Watch live
Southern / SE Montana + Sheridan WY	Heavy rain, burn-scar flash flood	WPC Moderate + Flood Watch	Today into Sunday
Carolinas / Upstate SC	Trees, wires, 66–69 mph gusts	Friday Marginal — verified	Just hit / cleanup
Wasatch Front / Four Corners	1.00–1.50″ hail, brief tornado/landspout reports	Friday convection	Just hit
Ohio Valley / southern Appalachians / Southeast	Isolated 50–60 mph gusts	SPC 5% wind / local SVR possible	Afternoon scatter
Atlantic / Gulf vs. U.S. mainland	No named cyclone threatening land	NHC: no TCs	Quiet on the mainland coast

What this means for restoration teams

Water is the morning job. Minnesota and the Iowa–Illinois line already have interior and roadway flooding from overnight cores. A Moderate ERO means those same counties can take another round. Kansas is the afternoon job: hail and 60–75 mph wind if the Slight Risk fires on schedule. Montana is a separate flood-and-burn-scar desk with a multi-day watch. Carolina wind and Utah hail are Friday night tickets still waiting on adjusters.

For teams on the Kansas Slight Risk: stage before mid-afternoon local, not after the first warning. Property owners should photograph damage in daylight if it is safe, call the carrier, and start extraction the same night if water is inside. Heat-index values near 100–105°F on the Missouri–southeast Kansas Advisory are a crew-safety constraint, not a reason to ignore the outlook.

What this is not

This is not a regional derecho and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. No convective watch is up as of mid-morning UTC Saturday. The work today, if it comes, will be scattered: a hail and wind swath through a Kansas county, another flooded intersection where Iowa or northern Illinois cells train, burn-scar runoff in southern Montana, leftover trees in the Carolinas. That is the local-storm pattern this desk should staff.

Looking ahead

SPC Day 2 remains a Slight Risk. WPC Day 2 eases the Midwest and Ohio Valley to a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall as the axis slides east. Flood Watches in Michigan, Indiana, Ohio, and Montana run through Sunday. Watch the next Storm Tracker update rather than assuming the overnight Minnesota warnings were the last water of the weekend.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center Sep 19, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook (Smith/Mead, 0725 AM CDT); SPC Current Watches page updated 12:23 UTC Saturday (no watches valid; last watch #0669); SPC Local Storm Reports for 18/1200Z–19/1159Z; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook updated 0844 UTC Saturday; National Weather Service warning text from La Crosse, Quad Cities, Northern Indiana, Billings, Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Springfield, and neighboring offices; National Hurricane Center Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook 800 AM EDT Saturday (no tropical cyclones; Azores disturbance is not a U.S. land threat).

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watch, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay. Prior desk: Friday, September 18 storm updates (afternoon).

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

September 19, 2026

Flash Flood Warning: Northern Fillmore and Mower Counties Until 1 AM CDT
Status: ACTIVE — Flash Flood Warning until 1:00 AM CDT Saturday, September 19. A Flash Flood Warning is in effect right now for northern Fillmore and northern Mower counties in southeastern Minnesota, issued by the National Weather Service in La Crosse at 11:51 PM CDT Friday. This one is observed and already causing damage: local law enforcement reports trees washed down at Highway 43 from south Rushford to Bratsberg, and flooding along Minnesota Highway 16 between Wayland and Peterson. Between 3 and 6 inches of rain have fallen, with another 1 to 3 inches possible. Flash flooding is already occurring.

This is the most damage-forward of tonight’s three active southeastern Minnesota warnings — confirmed road flooding, washed-out trees, and the heaviest rainfall totals of the night. For restoration contractors, a warning with observed highway flooding is the one that produces the Saturday call surge: stranded vehicles, flooded road-adjacent properties, and basements that filled while the rain kept falling at up to 3 additional inches. This is a live snapshot as of 12:35 AM CDT Saturday, September 19. Conditions change fast — always verify with the National Weather Service for your specific county or ZIP code.

Northern Fillmore and Mower Counties — Flash Flood Warning

Issued: 11:51 PM CDT Friday, September 18, by the National Weather Service in La Crosse (KARX).
Expires: 1:00 AM CDT Saturday, September 19.
Area: Northern Fillmore and northern Mower counties, Minnesota.
Severity: Severe · Certainty: Likely · Urgency: Immediate.

At 11:51 PM CDT, local law enforcement reported thunderstorms producing heavy rain. The detection is observed — officers on the ground have confirmed it, and the damage reports are already specific:
- Trees were washed down at Highway 43 from south Rushford to Bratsberg.
- Minnesota Highway 16 between Wayland and Peterson has flooding reported along the highway.
- This includes Interstate 90 in Minnesota between mile markers 193 and 204.
Rainfall totals so far, per the NWS:
- Between 3 and 6 inches of rain have fallen — the heaviest totals of any warning active in Minnesota tonight.
- Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are possible in the warned area.
- Flash flooding is already occurring.
HAZARD: Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.
SOURCE: Law enforcement reported.
IMPACT: Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor drainage and low-lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include: Chatfield, Rushford, Grand Meadow, Lanesboro, Brownsdale, Wykoff, Fountain, Lansing, Rushford Village, Washington, Racine, Mayville, Dexter, Pilot Mound, Arendahl, Peterson, Waltham, and Whalan.

Source links: NWS La Crosse office page · the official NWS alert (FFSARX).

Stay safe tonight

Turn around, don’t drown. When you encounter a flooded road, do not attempt to cross it — most flood deaths occur in vehicles, and the flooding on Highway 16 and Highway 43 tonight is the proof. It takes only a few inches of moving water to sweep a car away. Be especially cautious tonight: it is harder to recognize the dangers of flooding after dark, and this warning runs through 1 AM.

If water is entering your home:
- Stay out of standing water where electricity may be present. Do not enter a flooded basement until power is confirmed off.
- Avoid the basement until the water recedes and the electrical situation is verified safe.
- Photograph everything before cleanup begins. Documentation matters for insurance — shoot the water line, the affected rooms, and any damaged contents before anything is moved or torn out.
- Call a local restoration contractor quickly. Water left sitting starts a second wave of damage — saturated drywall, wicking into framing, and mold growth — within a day.
What this means for restoration teams

Three to six inches of rain with observed highway flooding is the call profile that restoration owners in the Driftless Area know well: the Rushford corridor floods hard and fast, low-lying homes along the Root River tributaries take water first, and the I-90 corridor between mile markers 193 and 204 becoming part of the warning zone means commercial properties along the interstate — hotels, truck stops, strip retail — are in the damage footprint too.

What to expect from the call volume:
- Commercial calls will mix with residential. When an interstate corridor is named in a flash flood warning, expect water-intrusion calls from businesses along it — flooded parking lots pushing water into ground-floor units, loading docks, and lobbies.
- The dawn wave will be the biggest of the night. Overnight flash-flood calls typically surface between 5 and 8 AM. With the heaviest rainfall totals in the state tonight, the Rushford–Chatfield–Lanesboro triangle should be staffed for a busy Saturday morning.
- Washed-down trees mean access problems. Trees down at Highway 43 from south Rushford to Bratsberg signal blocked roads and delayed response. Quote arrival windows with the road situation in mind, and triage by severity.
- Sewage backup risk is elevated. In small towns, 3 to 6 inches of rain overwhelms combined systems. Ask every caller about odor — that determines PPE, category classification, and disposal protocol.
- Mold clock starts now. Porous materials soaked tonight reach the 24–48 hour mold window by Sunday. Contractors with drying equipment staged and an on-call rotation running win this wave.
The play: stage equipment now — dehumidifiers, air movers, extraction units, moisture meters. Keep an on-call rotation through Saturday morning. On the first call, capture the address, the water source (rain intrusion vs. sewage backup vs. sump failure), and every affected room. Photo-document before mitigation starts, moisture-map every affected room, and keep the homeowner’s payment responsibility clear in writing before work begins.

FEMA & federal assistance

If your home or business is damaged and a federal disaster is later declared for your county, help may be available through FEMA. The FEMA Helpline is 1-800-621-3362 (7 a.m.–10 p.m. local time, 7 days a week). You can also apply at DisasterAssistance.gov or through the FEMA app, and find recovery centers at fema.gov/drc.

Basic eligibility: U.S. citizenship or qualified status, identity verification, proof of occupancy or ownership of the damaged property, and unmet needs not covered by insurance. Apply as soon as it is safe to do so — and document your damage thoroughly before cleanup, because adjusters and FEMA inspectors both work from what you can show.

Looking ahead

This warning expires at 1:00 AM CDT — the shortest fuse of the night, and the one expiring first. That does not mean the danger lifts at 1 AM: with 3 to 6 inches of rain on the ground and washed-out roads already reported, creeks and streams in Fillmore and Mower counties can keep rising for hours after the rain stops, and any follow-up round of storms on saturated ground can re-trigger flooding with almost no lead time. Watch for an extension or a new warning from NWS La Crosse.

The demand window for restoration work opens as the water recedes: water-intrusion calls typically start within hours and keep coming for days as people discover damage — wet carpet that seemed fine, baseboards that wicked overnight, musty odors that surface Sunday. Contractors who run Saturday-morning inspection routes through Rushford, Chatfield, and the Highway 16 corridor will find the work the overnight storm left behind.

Sources & how to verify
- NWS Flash Flood Warning FFSARX — official alert text
- NWS La Crosse office
- weather.gov — enter your county or ZIP code for your local warnings
To verify for your own county or ZIP: go to weather.gov, enter your location, and check the alerts box at the top of your local forecast page — or visit your NWS office page directly.

This post is for informational purposes and is not an official weather warning. Always follow instructions from local authorities and the National Weather Service.
September 19, 2026
Flash Flood Warning: Fillmore County Until 3:45 AM CDT
Status: ACTIVE — Flash Flood Warning until 3:45 AM CDT Saturday, September 19. The National Weather Service in La Crosse has issued a Flash Flood Warning for southern Fillmore County in southeastern Minnesota, effective 11:46 PM CDT Friday. Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicate thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area: between 1 and 3.5 inches of rain have fallen, with another 1 to 3 inches possible. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly.

This is the second of three active flash flood warnings across southeastern Minnesota tonight — a multi-county rain event that is still unfolding while most of the warned area sleeps. For restoration contractors, this is the overnight scenario that fills the Saturday call board: water moving into basements, crawl spaces, and low-lying commercial buildings hours before anyone is awake to see it. This is a live snapshot as of 12:30 AM CDT Saturday, September 19. Conditions change fast — always verify with the National Weather Service for your specific county or ZIP code.

Southern Fillmore County — Flash Flood Warning

Issued: 11:46 PM CDT Friday, September 18, by the National Weather Service in La Crosse (KARX).
Expires: 3:45 AM CDT Saturday, September 19.
Area: Southern Fillmore County in southeastern Minnesota.
Severity: Severe · Certainty: Likely · Urgency: Immediate.

At 11:46 PM CDT, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Detection is radar and gauge indicated — automated gauges on the ground are confirming what the radar shows.

Rainfall totals so far, per the NWS:
- Between 1 and 3.5 inches of rain have fallen across the warned area.
- Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are possible in the warned area.
- Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly.
HAZARD: Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.
SOURCE: Radar and automated gauges.
IMPACT: Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor drainage and low-lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include: Preston, Spring Valley, Harmony, Mabel, Canton, Highland, Cherry Grove, Bristol, Newburg, Amherst, York, Carimona, Ostrander, Hutton, Granger, Forestville State Park, Greenleafton, and Henrytown.

Source links: NWS La Crosse office page · the official NWS alert (FFWARX).

Stay safe tonight

Turn around, don’t drown. When you encounter a flooded road, do not attempt to cross it — most flood deaths occur in vehicles, and even a few inches of fast-moving water can carry a car away. Be especially cautious tonight: it is harder to recognize the dangers of flooding after dark, and this warning runs until nearly 4 AM.

If water is entering your home:
- Stay out of standing water where electricity may be present. Do not enter a flooded basement until power is confirmed off.
- Avoid the basement until the water recedes and the electrical situation is verified safe.
- Photograph everything before cleanup begins. Documentation matters for insurance — shoot the water line, the affected rooms, and any damaged contents before anything is moved or torn out.
- Call a local restoration contractor quickly. Water left sitting starts a second wave of damage — saturated drywall, wicking into framing, and mold growth — within a day.
What this means for restoration teams

Southern Fillmore County is hill country — the Root River valley, steep bluffs, and towns like Preston, Lanesboro-area corridors, and Harmony sitting in drainage paths that concentrate runoff fast. With 1 to 3.5 inches already down and another 1 to 3 possible, this is exactly the profile that produces basement seepage, overwhelmed sump systems, and water pushing through foundation walls in older housing stock.

What to expect from the call volume:
- The wave starts at dawn. Overnight flash-flood calls typically surface between 5 and 8 AM as people wake to wet basements. Staff the phones for Saturday morning.
- Sump-pump failures will be a major call driver. When rain falls this fast on saturated ground, sump systems run continuously — and the ones with aging pumps or no battery backup fail at the worst moment. Ask callers whether they have a sump and whether it’s running.
- Rural properties and state-park-adjacent cabins are in the mix. Forestville State Park is inside the warned area, and seasonal properties with no one home are the jobs that get discovered days later — the mold jobs. If you serve the Preston/Spring Valley corridor, a Saturday drive-by route through low-lying areas can surface work before homeowners even call.
- Mold clock starts now. Porous materials soaked tonight reach the 24–48 hour mold window by Sunday. The contractors who win this wave are the ones with drying equipment staged and an on-call rotation already running.
The play: stage equipment now — dehumidifiers, air movers, extraction units, moisture meters. Keep an on-call rotation through Saturday morning. On the first call, capture the address, the water source (rain intrusion vs. sewage backup vs. sump failure), and every affected room. Photo-document before mitigation starts, moisture-map every affected room, and keep the homeowner’s payment responsibility clear in writing before work begins.

FEMA & federal assistance

If your home or business is damaged and a federal disaster is later declared for your county, help may be available through FEMA. The FEMA Helpline is 1-800-621-3362 (7 a.m.–10 p.m. local time, 7 days a week). You can also apply at DisasterAssistance.gov or through the FEMA app, and find recovery centers at fema.gov/drc.

Basic eligibility: U.S. citizenship or qualified status, identity verification, proof of occupancy or ownership of the damaged property, and unmet needs not covered by insurance. Apply as soon as it is safe to do so — and document your damage thoroughly before cleanup, because adjusters and FEMA inspectors both work from what you can show.

Looking ahead

This warning runs until 3:45 AM CDT — the longest of tonight’s southeastern Minnesota warnings — which tells you the NWS expects the heavy rain to persist. When it expires, the danger does not necessarily end: creeks and streams in Fillmore County can crest hours after the rain stops, and saturated bluff-country ground means even a light follow-up round can re-trigger flooding with almost no lead time. Watch for an extension or additional warnings from NWS La Crosse if rain rates hold.

The demand window for restoration work opens as the water recedes: water-intrusion calls typically start within hours and keep coming for days as people discover damage — wet carpet that seemed fine, baseboards that wicked overnight, musty odors that surface Sunday. Contractors who run Saturday-morning inspection routes through Preston, Spring Valley, and Harmony will find the work the overnight storm left behind.

Sources & how to verify
- NWS Flash Flood Warning FFWARX — official alert text
- NWS La Crosse office
- weather.gov — enter your county or ZIP code for your local warnings
To verify for your own county or ZIP: go to weather.gov, enter your location, and check the alerts box at the top of your local forecast page — or visit your NWS office page directly.

This post is for informational purposes and is not an official weather warning. Always follow instructions from local authorities and the National Weather Service.
September 19, 2026
Flash Flood Warning: Waseca Area Until 1 AM CDT
Status: ACTIVE — Flash Flood Warning until 1:00 AM CDT Saturday, September 19. A Flash Flood Warning is in effect right now for parts of south-central Minnesota — southeastern Blue Earth, northeastern Faribault, northwestern Freeborn, southwestern Steele, and southern Waseca counties — issued by the National Weather Service in Twin Cities/Chanhassen at 11:26 PM CDT Friday. Law enforcement has already reported flooding along MN Highway 30 in southern Waseca County and in the town of New Richland, with 2 to 5 inches of rain on the ground and rain still falling at a rate of 1 to 2 inches per hour.

For restoration teams, this is the shape of the year’s heaviest water-intrusion nights: overnight basement and crawl-space flooding that homeowners discover at dawn, when the calls start stacking. This is a live snapshot as of 12:25 AM CDT Saturday, September 19. Conditions change fast — always verify with the National Weather Service for your specific county or ZIP code.

Waseca and Surrounding Counties — Flash Flood Warning

Issued: 11:26 PM CDT Friday, September 18, by the National Weather Service in Twin Cities/Chanhassen (KMPX).
Expires: 1:00 AM CDT Saturday, September 19.
Counties: Southeastern Blue Earth, northeastern Faribault, northwestern Freeborn, southwestern Steele, and southern Waseca counties, Minnesota.
Severity: Severe · Certainty: Likely · Urgency: Immediate.

At 11:26 PM CDT, local law enforcement reported thunderstorms producing heavy rain in southern Waseca County along MN Highway 30 and in New Richland. The detection is observed — this is not a radar-only call; officers on the ground have confirmed it.

Rainfall totals so far, per the NWS:
- Between 2 and 5 inches of rain have fallen across the warned area.
- The expected rainfall rate is 1 to 2 inches in 1 hour.
- Additional rainfall amounts of 0.5 to 2 inches are possible before the warning expires.
- Flash flooding is already occurring.
HAZARD: Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.
SOURCE: Law enforcement reported.
IMPACT: Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor drainage and low-lying areas.

Locations that will experience flash flooding include: New Richland, Ellendale, Minnesota Lake, Geneva, Hartland, and Matawan.

Source links: NWS Twin Cities/Chanhassen office page · the official NWS alert (FFSMPX).

Stay safe tonight

Turn around, don’t drown. When you encounter a flooded road, do not attempt to cross it — most flood deaths occur in vehicles, and it takes only a few inches of moving water to sweep a car away. Be especially cautious tonight: it is harder to recognize the dangers of flooding after dark, and this warning runs through the early-morning hours.

If water is entering your home:
- Stay out of standing water where electricity may be present. Do not walk through a flooded basement until power is confirmed off.
- Avoid the basement until the water recedes and the electrical situation is verified safe.
- Photograph everything before cleanup begins. Documentation matters for insurance — shoot the water line, the affected rooms, and any damaged contents before anything is moved or torn out.
- Call a local restoration contractor quickly. Water left sitting starts a second wave of damage — saturated drywall, wicking into framing, and mold growth — within a day.
What this means for restoration teams

This is an observed, already-occurring flash flood event across five counties in south-central Minnesota, and it is hitting overnight — the worst possible window for damage to go unnoticed. The signature damage profile from a night like this: basement water intrusion through window wells and foundation seepage, saturated carpet and pad, wicking drywall, and crawl-space standing water that homeowners won’t find until morning.

What to expect from the call volume:
- The wave starts at dawn. Overnight flash-flood calls typically surface between 5 and 8 AM as people wake to wet basements. Staff the phones accordingly.
- Sewage backup risk is real in low-lying areas. With 2 to 5 inches of rain plus another 1 to 2 inches per hour possible, municipal systems in small towns like New Richland and Ellendale can be overwhelmed. Ask every caller whether the water smells — that determines PPE, category classification, and disposal protocol.
- Highway flooding means delayed response. With MN-30 already flooding, drive times across the warned area will stretch. Quote arrival windows honestly and triage by severity.
- Mold clock starts now. Porous materials soaked tonight reach the 24–48 hour mold window by Sunday. The contractors who win this wave are the ones with drying equipment staged and an on-call rotation already running.
The play: stage equipment now — dehumidifiers, air movers, extraction units, moisture meters. Keep an on-call rotation through Saturday morning. On the first call, capture the address, the water source (rain intrusion vs. sewage backup vs. sump failure), and every affected room. Photo-document before mitigation starts, moisture-map every affected room, and keep the homeowner’s payment responsibility clear in writing before work begins.

FEMA & federal assistance

If your home or business is damaged and a federal disaster is later declared for your county, help may be available through FEMA. The FEMA Helpline is 1-800-621-3362 (7 a.m.–10 p.m. local time, 7 days a week). You can also apply at DisasterAssistance.gov or through the FEMA app, and find recovery centers at fema.gov/drc.

Basic eligibility: U.S. citizenship or qualified status, identity verification, proof of occupancy or ownership of the damaged property, and unmet needs not covered by insurance. Apply as soon as it is safe to do so — and document your damage thoroughly before cleanup, because adjusters and FEMA inspectors both work from what you can show.

Looking ahead

When this warning expires at 1:00 AM CDT, the danger does not necessarily end with it. Creeks and streams in the warned counties can crest hours after the rain stops, and saturated ground means any additional round of storms — even a light one — can re-trigger flooding with almost no lead time. Watch for a possible extension or a new warning from NWS Twin Cities/Chanhassen if rain rates hold.

The demand window for restoration work opens as the water recedes: water-intrusion calls typically start within hours and keep coming for days as people discover damage — wet carpet that seemed fine, baseboards that wicked overnight, musty odors that surface Sunday. Contractors who follow up with Saturday-morning inspections in New Richland, Ellendale, and Minnesota Lake will find the work the overnight storm left behind.

Sources & how to verify
- NWS Flash Flood Warning FFSMPX — official alert text
- NWS Twin Cities/Chanhassen office
- weather.gov — enter your county or ZIP code for your local warnings
To verify for your own county or ZIP: go to weather.gov, enter your location, and check the alerts box at the top of your local forecast page — or visit your NWS office page directly.

This post is for informational purposes and is not an official weather warning. Always follow instructions from local authorities and the National Weather Service.
September 19, 2026

Storm Updates: Carolinas Wind Pulse + Upper Mississippi Flood Slight — Friday, September 18, 2026

This is a live Friday afternoon snapshot of U.S. local-storm activity as of Friday, September 18, 2026. The Storm Prediction Center 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook holds a Marginal Risk of isolated severe thunderstorms from the Carolina Piedmont into northern Georgia, northern Iowa, parts of the central High Plains, and parts of the Intermountain West. No convective watches are valid. Mesoscale discussions referenced in the 2000 UTC package (MCDs 2306 and 2307) are no longer in effect. The Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook is the organized ticket: Slight Risk over portions of the Upper Mississippi Valley and a second Slight Risk over southwest Montana. There is no named tropical cyclone in the Atlantic, eastern Pacific, or central Pacific.

These are county- and ZIP-scale thunderstorms and flash-flood pulses, not a mainland hurricane landfall. Restoration exposure this afternoon is wind and trees already verifying across central North Carolina, isolated hail leftover from Intermountain cells, and water tonight from southeast Minnesota into west-central Wisconsin. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What is live this afternoon

SPC issued the 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook at 0241 PM CDT, valid 182000Z–191200Z. Forecasters Chalmers and Wendt made only minor adjustments from the midday package. Headline: an isolated severe risk continues for portions of the Carolinas into northern Georgia and parts of the Intermountain West. Isolated severe storms are also forecast later today across portions of northern Iowa and parts of the central High Plains. Risk-area population centers listed by SPC include Charlotte, Atlanta, Raleigh, Greensboro, and Durham. Categorical risk is Marginal only. No Slight Risk on Day 1. No tornado probabilities in the 2000 UTC categorical headline. Risk-area size on the 2000 UTC graphic is about 179,316 square miles covering roughly 19.6 million people.

Current convective watches: none. SPC watch page last updated 1805 UTC Friday: no watches currently valid. Most recently issued watch remains Severe Thunderstorm Watch 669, already expired. Do not treat 669 as a live product.

The 2000 UTC discussion points to MCDs 2306 and 2307 for additional information. By late afternoon the live MD list showed no mesoscale discussions currently in effect. Most recently issued discussion on the current-MD page was 2305. Treat those numbers as the latest issued discussions, not standing watches.

WPC Day 1 excessive-rainfall language valid 16Z Friday through 12Z Saturday holds Slight Risk for portions of the Upper Mississippi Valley and southwest Montana. The 16Z update expanded the eastern edge of the Slight and high-end Slight about one to two counties into southeast Wisconsin and northeast Illinois, where recent heavy rain left the ground sensitive. Highest amounts still focus over southeast Minnesota and west-central Wisconsin, with model-consensus QPF in the 2 to 4 inch range. A separate Slight Risk covers southwest Montana. Marginal Risk remains over South Florida and the Keys, a remnant Intermountain/Southwest terrain corridor, a Northern Plains strip, and a thin Ohio Valley pocket. WPC’s short-range discussion already flags a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall Saturday over parts of the Upper Great Lakes into the Middle Mississippi Valley. That is tomorrow’s water upgrade, not today’s Day 1 map.

Hotspot 1 — Carolina Piedmont into northern Georgia

A wavy stationary front this morning ran from southern Illinois through southern Indiana and southern Ohio into southwest Pennsylvania. Decaying showers preceded it from southern Illinois into northern Kentucky. The boundary is shifting south as cooler air follows a shortwave through southern Quebec and the Canadian Maritimes. The front is relatively weak, but it is interacting with a warm, moist, diurnally destabilized airmass across the Carolina Piedmont and northern Georgia. Precipitable water is over 2 inches. Vertical shear is weak. Storm mode is outflow-dominant. The risk is occasionally strong downbursts, not a long-lived supercell corridor.

That language already verified this afternoon. Preliminary LSRs on the 18/1200Z cycle include a 69 mph gust at KGSO (5 ESE Colfax, Guilford County), a 66 mph gust at KFAY (4 ENE Hope Mills, Cumberland County), trees down on I-85 near Route 68, trees blocking roads in Randolph, Davie, Iredell, Rowan, Chatham, and Moore counties, and a power-company outage from downed trees northwest of Craven in Rowan County. Those are trees-on-pavement and trees-on-wires tickets in the Charlotte–Greensboro–Fayetteville corridor, not a watch-scale outbreak.

Restoration read: wind first. Stage tree, tarp, and board-up capacity for the Piedmont counties that already have LSRs. Hail is not the lead threat on this corridor. Water is secondary unless a cell trains over the same ZIP that already took a 2-inch precipitable-water plume.

Hotspot 2 — Upper Mississippi Valley water

A Northern Plains disturbance continues east from the Dakotas across southern Minnesota into Wisconsin tonight. WPC keeps the Slight Risk and high-end Slight focused on southeast Minnesota and west-central Wisconsin, with the eastern edge nudged into southeast Wisconsin and northeast Illinois because those counties already took rain. Local NWS language from La Crosse this afternoon still has 1–3 inches likely and 4–6 inches possible in pockets, with a Flood Watch south of I-94 and rivers such as the Kickapoo at Gays Mills and Viola and the Cedar at Charles City expected to reach minor flood stage if the heavier corridor verifies.

SPC’s northern Iowa Marginal is a separate overlay: elevated storms tonight on warm-air advection and a moderate low-level jet, with isolated hail the primary severe hazard and a strong gust or two if any linear structures develop. That is hail and wind on the southern edge of the water corridor, not a Slight Risk severe day.

Restoration read: water first from southeast Minnesota through west-central Wisconsin into northeast Iowa tonight. Extraction and wet-drywall clocks start the same night if water is inside. Do not send the same crew to a Piedmont tree job and a Kickapoo basement without checking which county has a warning now.

Hotspot 3 — Intermountain West and central High Plains

A shortwave trough continues east into southern Idaho and northern Utah. Highs stay relatively cool — upper 60s in southern Idaho, low to mid 70s in northern Utah — but cold temperatures aloft plus strong deep-layer shear still support organized updrafts. Isolated severe gusts and small hail remain the SPC language. That already verified on today’s LSR cycle: 1.50-inch hail 2 W of Kaysville in Davis County, Utah, and quarter-size hail near Farmington in San Juan County, New Mexico.

On the High Plains, a mid-level vorticity maximum lifting north-northeast later this evening may support isolated severe gusts and a conditional, less-than-5-percent hail risk if a more cellular mode holds into better low-level moisture near the Colorado–Nebraska–Kansas border. Storms may grow upscale into a small eastward-moving cluster this evening. Isolated outflow surges, not a derecho.

Restoration read: hail first if cells verify over the Wasatch Front or the Four Corners. Wind second if High Plains clusters organize. Flash-flood risk on this corridor is Marginal to isolated except for the separate southwest Montana Slight Risk, where WPC introduced Slight coverage after Thursday’s cell behavior and 0.5–1.5 inch guidance.

Just hit

SPC preliminary storm reports for the current 18/1200Z–19/1159Z cycle already include one brief landspout at Lighthouse Point in Broward County, Florida (palm fronds lofted; no damage path described as a supercell tornado), quarter to 1.50-inch hail in San Juan County, New Mexico, and Davis County, Utah, and a long list of North Carolina wind reports from Davie, Guilford, Randolph, Cumberland, Iredell, Rowan, Chatham, and Moore counties, including measured 69 mph at Greensboro and 66 mph at Fayetteville.

The last 24-hour ticket pile on the prior cycle (17/1200Z–18/1159Z) is the Idaho hail outbreak the morning desk already logged: tennis-ball hail (2.50 inches) near Rose in Bingham County, golf-ball hail in Blackfoot and Shelley, quarter to 1.25-inch hail across Bingham, Blaine, Jefferson, and Bear Lake counties, plus 1.50-inch hail at Midway, Wasatch County, Utah, and 1.50-inch hail near Broadwater, Morrill County, Nebraska. Wind on that cycle included power lines down at Lewisville, Jefferson County, Idaho; a 61 mph gust south-southwest of Mud Lake; trees in Beavercreek, Greene County, Ohio; a tree-fall injury in Ashland, Boyd County, Kentucky; and trees in Tippecanoe and Carroll counties, Indiana. A brief tornado touchdown was reported 11 NNE of Chappell in Garden County, Nebraska. Those products are expired. The roofs and cars in Bingham County are still the ticket.

This morning’s Storm Tracker already covered the 1300 UTC outlook family. This afternoon desk updates to the 2000 UTC package, confirms still-zero watches, and adds the live North Carolina LSR cluster and the WPC 16Z flood-edge nudge into southeast Wisconsin and northeast Illinois.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS / WPC level	Status this afternoon
Carolina Piedmont / northern GA	Downburst wind, trees, wires	SPC Marginal	Live — LSRs already in
SE MN / west-central WI / NE IA	Flash flood, 2–4″ swaths	WPC Slight (high-end core)	Tonight’s organized water ticket
Northern Iowa / far southern MN	Isolated hail, isolated gusts	SPC Marginal	Elevated storms tonight
Southern ID / northern UT / Four Corners	Isolated hail and severe gusts	SPC Marginal	Live cells; 1.50″ hail at Kaysville
Central High Plains	Isolated severe gusts	SPC Marginal	Evening cluster if heating holds
Southwest Montana	Flash flood, 0.5–1.5″	WPC Slight	Diurnal terrain cells
South Florida / Keys	Urban flooding, landspout noise	WPC Marginal	Diurnal; one brief landspout LSR
Bingham County ID (overnight)	Tennis-ball to golf-ball hail	LSRs prior cycle	Just-hit
Atlantic / Gulf vs. U.S. mainland	No named cyclone	NHC: no tropical cyclones	Quiet on the mainland coast

What this means for restoration teams

The live ticket this afternoon is wind on the Carolina Piedmont: trees, wires, and a measured 66–69 mph pair at Greensboro and Fayetteville. Isolated Intermountain hail is a roof and auto-glass survey if cells keep firing over the Wasatch Front or Farmington, New Mexico. The organized ticket tonight is still water from southeast Minnesota through west-central Wisconsin. Idaho’s overnight tennis-ball hail around Blackfoot, Rose, and Shelley is a separate just-hit staffing problem from this afternoon’s Piedmont wind.

For teams near the Carolina Marginal: the warnings and LSRs are already out. Photograph damage in daylight if it is safe, call the carrier, and start extraction the same night if water is inside. Turn around, don’t drown on Upper Mississippi and Montana washes.

What this is not

This is not a Slight Risk severe day, not a live convective watch, and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. MCDs 2306 and 2307 are not watches. The Broward landspout is a brief landspout LSR, not a tornado outbreak. NHC reports no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, eastern Pacific, or central Pacific as of this afternoon. The work, if it keeps verifying, will be scattered: a tree swath through a Piedmont county, a hail report on the Wasatch Front, and heavier rain over southeast Minnesota and west-central Wisconsin tonight.

Looking ahead

SPC Day 2 (Saturday) holds a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms late Saturday afternoon and evening from northwest Oklahoma into eastern Kansas, with more isolated severe storms possible across the central High Plains, central Rockies, and the Midwest to Southeast. The 1730 UTC Day 2 summary calls for scattered severe wind and hail-producing storms on the central Plains. WPC already has a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall Saturday over parts of the Upper Great Lakes into the Middle Mississippi Valley. The next Storm Tracker update should re-check the 0100 UTC Day 1 outlook, any new watches, and whether that Moderate flood risk is the morning headline rather than assuming today’s Marginal stays the last word.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center Sep 18, 2026 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook (Chalmers/Wendt); Day 2 Convective Outlook; current convective watches (none valid; last issued Watch 669); current mesoscale discussions (none in effect); SPC preliminary storm reports for the 20260918 cycle and 20260917 cycle; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (Campbell, 332 PM EDT Fri Sep 18, 2026); National Hurricane Center Tropical Weather Outlook, September 18, 2026 (no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, eastern Pacific, or central Pacific).

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watch, MD, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay. Morning desk for this calendar day: Storm Updates: Carolinas–Georgia + Iowa Marginal, Upper Mississippi Flood Slight — Friday, September 18, 2026 (Morning).

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

September 18, 2026

Storm Updates: Carolinas–Georgia + Iowa Marginal, Upper Mississippi Flood Slight — Friday, September 18, 2026 (Morning)

This is a live Friday morning snapshot of U.S. local-storm activity as of early Friday, September 18, 2026. Overnight convection dumped tennis-ball hail on Bingham County, Idaho, knocked power lines down near Lewisville, and forced National Weather Service flash-flood warnings for the Idaho Falls and Rexburg areas that expired before dawn. The Storm Prediction Center 1300 UTC Day 1 outlook holds a Marginal Risk of isolated severe thunderstorms from the Carolinas into northern Georgia, across Iowa, over parts of the central High Plains, and again in the Intermountain West. No convective watches are valid. The Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook holds Slight Risks over the Upper Mississippi Valley and southwest Montana. There is no named tropical cyclone threatening U.S. land.

These are county- and ZIP-scale thunderstorms and flash-flood pulses, not a mainland hurricane landfall. Restoration exposure today is leftover hail and interior water in eastern Idaho, isolated damaging gusts on the Carolina Piedmont and in Iowa this afternoon, and training rain from southern Minnesota into Wisconsin tonight. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What is live this morning

SPC issued the 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook at 0719 AM CDT. Valid 181300Z–191200Z. Headline: an isolated severe risk later today into the evening for the Carolinas into northern Georgia, Iowa, parts of the central High Plains, and parts of the Intermountain West. Categorical risk is Marginal over about 171,000 square miles and roughly 21 million people. Wind is the shared 5 percent contour. A 2 percent tornado contour sits over north-central Iowa (Ames, Ankeny, Mason City, Fort Dodge, Marshalltown). A 5 percent hail contour remains over the Salt Lake City–Provo corridor.

No Severe Thunderstorm Watch or Tornado Watch is in effect. The most recently issued watch on the SPC board is Watch 669, already expired. Today’s 1200 UTC–onward local storm report page is empty as of this desk: no tornado, hail, or wind reports on the new cycle yet. Last night’s work is on the September 17 cycle.

WPC’s 1034 UTC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, valid 12Z Friday through 12Z Saturday, holds a Slight Risk of rainfall exceeding flash-flood guidance over the Upper Mississippi Valley (southern Minnesota into Wisconsin and adjacent Iowa/Illinois) and a separate Slight over southwest Montana. Marginal flood pockets cover leftover Southwest terrain, the northern High Plains, South Florida and the Keys, a Midwest/Great Lakes corridor, and the Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians. Guidance still supports 2 to 4 inches in the better Upper Midwest swath.

The National Hurricane Center 800 AM EDT Atlantic outlook and companion eastern and central Pacific outlooks list no tropical cyclones. That sentence stays off the restoration board unless NHC names something that threatens U.S. land.

Overnight into this morning

Thursday’s SPC report cycle (1200 UTC September 17 through 1159 UTC September 18) is the just-hit file. One brief tornado was reported 11 miles north-northeast of Chappell in Garden County, Nebraska, around 0034 UTC. Hail clustered on eastern Idaho: 1.00 to 1.75 inches around Blackfoot, Shelley, Firth, Moreland, and Menan; 2.50 inches (tennis ball) one mile north-northeast of Rose in Bingham County; 1.25 inches at Gannett in Blaine County; 1.00 inch east of Alton in Bear Lake County. Utah added 1.50 inches at Midway in Wasatch County. Nebraska High Plains added 1.50 inches east-southeast of Broadwater. Missouri picked up 1.00 inch near Saint Paul in St. Charles County.

Wind: power lines down in Lewisville, Jefferson County, Idaho; 61 mph at the INL rover south-southwest of Mud Lake; trees and shingles near Saint Paul, Missouri; a 59 mph gust at Truth or Consequences, New Mexico; trees down in Tippecanoe and Carroll counties, Indiana; a large tree on Yalta Drive in Beavercreek, Ohio; several large trees in Ashland, Kentucky, with one person injured and transported when a tree fell. Overnight flash-flood warnings for the Idaho Falls area (until 2:00 AM MDT) and the Rexburg area (until 2:45 AM MDT) have expired. Those were water jobs on eastern Idaho drainages after the same hail cores, not a new watch this morning.

Hotspot 1 — Carolinas into northern Georgia

A cluster of weak thunderstorms this morning over Kentucky and West Virginia rides south on northerly flow around a mid-level high over the Ark-La-Tex. SPC expects rejuvenation near convective outflow along the Virginia–North Carolina border, then scattered storms over the Piedmont into northern Georgia as the boundary layer heats. Isolated 50–60 mph gusts are the advertised threat. Cities inside the Marginal contour include Charlotte, Raleigh, Greensboro, and Atlanta.

Restoration read: wind first, not a tornado outbreak. Stage tarps and tree crews for late afternoon into evening. Photograph roofs in remaining daylight only if it is safe. This is a scatter of cores, not a watch-boxed line.

Hotspot 2 — Iowa and the Upper Mississippi Valley

A front lies from the lower Ohio Valley west into the mid Missouri Valley, with a weak surface low over western Nebraska. Lower-70s dewpoints sit south of the boundary. SPC favors thunderstorms over Iowa into far southern Minnesota where heating and low-level forcing erode inhibition. Primary hazard is marginally severe gusts. Enlarged hodographs near the warm front leave a localized chance of a couple of weak, short-lived supercells — that is the 2 percent tornado contour, not a Slight Risk upgrade. Upscale growth late evening would drift toward the southwest Great Lakes and lose buoyancy.

WPC’s Slight Risk is the organized water ticket. A disturbance tracking out of the Dakotas across southern Minnesota into Wisconsin can support 2–4 inches where the low-level jet blossoms the rain shield. That is wet drywall and a 24–48 hour mold clock in the better swaths, not a river-flood headline yet.

Restoration read: Iowa wind this afternoon, Minnesota–Wisconsin water tonight. Do not staff both with the same crew without checking which county has a warning now.

Hotspot 3 — Intermountain West and central High Plains

A mid-level trough crosses the Intermountain West. Dewpoints in the 50s from northern Utah into western Wyoming valleys, MLCAPE 1000–1200 J/kg, and moderate shear support isolated severe gusts and hail again late afternoon and evening — the same corridor that just put tennis-ball hail on Bingham County. On the High Plains, a vorticity maximum over New Mexico may help isolated storms grow into a small eastward cluster over eastern Colorado into southwest Nebraska and northwest Kansas, with isolated severe gusts on outflow.

Southwest Montana sits under WPC’s second Slight Risk after Thursday’s cell behavior and ensemble 2-inch QPF. Rates can still beat flash-flood guidance even if storms stay progressive. Residual Marginal flood language covers New Mexico and Arizona terrain for one more diurnal cycle.

Just hit

Eastern Idaho hail, the expired Idaho Falls and Rexburg flash-flood warnings, the Garden County brief tornado, and the Ashland, Kentucky tree injury are yesterday’s tickets. Thursday afternoon’s Storm Tracker already carried the Idaho–Utah Marginal and Dakotas flood Slight on the prior Day 1 package. This morning desk moves the live outlook east onto the Carolinas and Iowa and slides the flood Slight onto the Upper Mississippi Valley and southwest Montana.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS / WPC level	Status this morning
Carolinas / northern GA	Isolated 50–60 mph gusts	SPC Marginal	Afternoon–evening cells
Iowa / southern MN	Gusts; localized brief tornado	SPC Marginal; 2% tornado	Afternoon into evening
Southern MN / WI / adjacent IA–IL	Flash flood, 2–4″ swaths	WPC Slight	Today’s organized water ticket
Northern UT / ID / WY valleys	Isolated hail and severe gusts	SPC Marginal (5% hail UT)	Late afternoon–evening
E CO / SW NE / NW KS	Isolated severe gusts	SPC Marginal	Evening cluster possible
Southwest Montana	Flash flood on progressive cells	WPC Slight	Afternoon–evening
Bingham / Jefferson / Madison ID	Hail, wires, expired FFWs	Aftermath	Just-hit desk
Atlantic / Gulf vs. U.S. mainland	No landfalling cyclone	NHC quiet	Quiet

What this means for restoration teams

Idaho hail is already on cars, windows, and roofs in Bingham County. That is same-day emergency board-up and a multi-day supplement fight, not a forecast. Carolina and Iowa wind at 50–60 mph is roof, siding, gutter, and tree-on-structure work if cores verify. Upper Mississippi Valley rain is extraction and drying if 2–4 inch swaths land on saturated ground. A 2 percent tornado contour is a narrow, short-lived threat — staff it as a local damage survey if a warning verifies, not as a regional event.

For teams near Charlotte, Raleigh, Atlanta, Des Moines, Ames, or the Salt Lake valley: stage before peak heating, not after the first warning. Property owners should photograph damage in daylight if it is safe, call the carrier, and start extraction the same night if water is inside.

What this is not

This is not a Slight Risk convective day, not a live watch, and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. The work today, if it comes, will be scattered: a wind-damaged street on the Piedmont, a brief spin-up near an Iowa warm front, another hail core in a Utah or Idaho valley, a flooded underpass in southern Minnesota or Wisconsin. That is the local-storm pattern this desk should staff.

Looking ahead

Saturday’s Day 2 outlook is already a Slight Risk of scattered severe wind and hail over portions of the central Plains, with isolated severe storms possible from the High Plains and central Rockies into the Midwest and Southeast. Sunday is Marginal. Day 4–8 has no 15 percent areas. Watch the afternoon Storm Tracker for the 1630 UTC Day 1 update rather than assuming this morning’s Marginal is the last line of the weekend.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center Sep 18, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook (Smith/Mead); SPC current watches page (none valid; last watch 669); SPC local storm reports for 20260917 and 20260918; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook issued 1034 UTC Friday; National Hurricane Center 800 AM EDT Friday Tropical Weather Outlook; National Weather Service Pocatello flash-flood warning text for Idaho Falls and Rexburg, now expired.

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watch, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay. Prior desk: Thursday afternoon Storm Updates: Idaho–Utah Marginal, Dakotas Flood Slight. Related overnight posts: Idaho Falls flash-flood warning and Rexburg flash-flood warning.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

September 18, 2026

Flash Flood Warning: Rexburg Area Until 2:45 AM MDT

A Flash Flood Warning is active right now for the Rexburg area. The National Weather Service in Pocatello issued it at 9:51 PM MDT on Thursday, September 17, and it runs until 2:45 AM MDT on Friday, September 18. Doppler radar is showing thunderstorms producing heavy rain across central Madison County, and flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly. These are exactly the storms that produce the interior water-intrusion jobs restoration teams see most — water finding its way into living spaces in the middle of the night. This is a live snapshot as of 12:06 AM MDT on Friday, September 18. Conditions change fast — always verify with the National Weather Service for your specific county or ZIP code.

Rexburg area — Flash Flood Warning

Issued by: National Weather Service, Pocatello, Idaho — 9:51 PM MDT Thursday, September 17.
Expires: 2:45 AM MDT Friday, September 18.
Covers: Central Madison County in southeastern Idaho.

At 9:51 PM MDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. The National Weather Service says flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly.

Hazard: Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.
Source: Radar indicated.

Expected impacts: Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses, as well as other poor-drainage and low-lying areas. In practical terms: ponding on Rexburg streets, water over low road crossings, and any creek or drainage running high after this rain.

Locations in the warning path: Rexburg.

Also active nearby — Big Rock burn scar warning: At 10:25 PM MDT, NWS Pocatello issued a separate Flash Flood Warning for the Big Rock burn scar in south central Madison County and southeastern Jefferson County, running until 2:30 AM MDT — and part of that polygon sits inside Madison County, close to home for Rexburg readers. Thunderstorms are producing heavy rain over the burn scar, and the Weather Service warns of life-threatening flash flooding with debris flow — rock, mud, vegetation and other loose materials — moving through the scar. Some locations affected include Heise. Roads and driveways may be washed away in places. If you are anywhere near the burn scar area and encounter flood waters, climb to safety immediately. This is the more dangerous of the two warnings tonight: debris flow does not behave like ordinary street flooding.

Stay safe tonight

Turn around, don’t drown. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles — never drive through flooded roadways, and never try to guess the depth of water over a road at night. The National Weather Service’s rule of thumb: six inches of moving water can knock an adult off their feet, and twelve inches can carry a car.

If water gets into your home: stay out of standing water anywhere electricity may be present, and stay out of the basement until the water recedes and the power is confirmed off. Photograph everything before you touch anything — documentation matters for insurance. Then call a local restoration contractor. Water left sitting starts a second wave of damage within a day, and the clock on that starts the moment the rain stops, not the moment you discover it.

What this means for restoration teams

This is the signature southeastern Idaho night for water work: radar-indicated storms, urban and small-stream flooding, and a warning window that runs to 2:45 AM. Expect the calls to start as water recedes and keep coming for days as people discover what happened overnight. The damage categories to plan for: interior water intrusion through foundations, window wells and door thresholds; saturated drywall and insulation in finished basements; mold risk inside 24 to 48 hours on anything that stays wet; and sewage backup in low-lying areas where storm drains surcharge.

The play tonight: stage equipment now rather than at first call. Pre-position drying assets — air movers, dehumidifiers, extraction — so the first truck rolls complete. Keep an on-call rotation through the morning, because the discovery curve on overnight flooding peaks after sunrise. On the first call, capture the address, the water source, and every affected area before you quote anything.

Field discipline, same as always: photo-document before mitigation begins, moisture-map every affected room (not just the visibly wet one — water travels inside wall cavities), and keep the homeowner’s payment responsibility clear in writing before work starts. Night jobs with stressed homeowners are where scope misunderstandings are born.

Local emergency contacts

Madison County Emergency Services (Rexburg): (208) 359-3010
Life-threatening emergency: 911
Idaho Office of Emergency Management: ioem.idaho.gov

FEMA and federal assistance

If the flooding damages your home and you need help beyond what insurance covers, the FEMA Helpline is 1-800-621-3362, open 7 a.m. to 10 p.m. local time, seven days a week. You can also apply at DisasterAssistance.gov, through the FEMA app, or find a recovery center at fema.gov/drc.

Basic eligibility: U.S. citizenship or qualified status, identity verification, proof of occupancy or ownership, and unmet needs not covered by insurance. Don’t wait — apply as soon as it’s safe.

Looking ahead

The Rexburg warning expires at 2:45 AM MDT, and the neighboring burn scar warning at 2:30 AM MDT. When a warning expires, that doesn’t mean the water is gone — small creeks and streams often crest after the rain ends, and saturated ground means any additional round of storms overnight floods faster than the first. Storms can arrive in multiple rounds overnight, so watch the NWS Pocatello page for extensions or new warnings.

For contractors: the demand window on this kind of event opens within hours of water receding and stays open for days. Homeowners discover basement water in the morning, call around midday, and the serious mitigation decisions land over the weekend. Be reachable, be first with the moisture map, and be the contractor who documented everything.

Sources and how to verify

NWS Pocatello office page — warnings, updates and extensions post here first.
weather.gov — enter your ZIP code for the warnings covering exactly where you are.
Alert data via the National Weather Service API (api.weather.gov), warnings active as of 12:06 AM MDT Friday, September 18.

To verify for your own county or ZIP: open weather.gov, enter your ZIP, and read the active alerts banner at the top of the page. If Madison County is listed, this warning covers you.

This post is for informational purposes and is not an official weather warning. Always follow instructions from local authorities and the National Weather Service. Stay weather-aware around flash flooding — turn around, don’t drown.

September 18, 2026
Flash Flood Warning: Idaho Falls Area Until 2 AM MDT

A Flash Flood Warning is active right now for the Idaho Falls area. The National Weather Service in Pocatello issued it at 10:00 PM MDT on Thursday, September 17, and it runs until 2:00 AM MDT on Friday, September 18. Doppler radar is showing thunderstorms producing heavy rain across north central Bonneville County and south central Jefferson County, and flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly. These are exactly the storms that produce the interior water-intrusion jobs restoration teams see most — water finding its way into living spaces in the middle of the night. This is a live snapshot as of 12:06 AM MDT on Friday, September 18. Conditions change fast — always verify with the National Weather Service for your specific county or ZIP code.

Idaho Falls area — Flash Flood Warning

Issued by: National Weather Service, Pocatello, Idaho — 10:00 PM MDT Thursday, September 17.
Expires: 2:00 AM MDT Friday, September 18.
Covers: North central Bonneville County and south central Jefferson County in southeastern Idaho.

At 10:00 PM MDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. The National Weather Service says flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly.

Hazard: Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.
Source: Radar indicated.

Expected impacts: Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses, as well as other poor-drainage and low-lying areas. In practical terms: the underpasses and low dips around Idaho Falls, ponding on streets in Rigby and the smaller towns, and any creek or drainage running high after this rain.

Locations in the warning path: Idaho Falls, Rigby, Lorenzo, Ucon, Menan and Lewisville.

Also active nearby — Big Rock burn scar warning: At 10:25 PM MDT, NWS Pocatello issued a separate Flash Flood Warning for the Big Rock burn scar in southeastern Jefferson County and south central Madison County, running until 2:30 AM MDT. Thunderstorms are producing heavy rain over the burn scar, and the Weather Service warns of life-threatening flash flooding with debris flow — rock, mud, vegetation and other loose materials — moving through the scar. Some locations affected include Heise. Roads and driveways may be washed away in places. If you are anywhere near the burn scar area and encounter flood waters, climb to safety immediately. This one is the more dangerous of the two warnings tonight.

Stay safe tonight

Turn around, don’t drown. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles — never drive through flooded roadways, and never try to guess the depth of water over a road at night. The National Weather Service’s rule of thumb: six inches of moving water can knock an adult off their feet, and twelve inches can carry a car.

If water gets into your home: stay out of standing water anywhere electricity may be present, and stay out of the basement until the water recedes and the power is confirmed off. Photograph everything before you touch anything — documentation matters for insurance. Then call a local restoration contractor. Water left sitting starts a second wave of damage within a day, and the clock on that starts the moment the rain stops, not the moment you discover it.

What this means for restoration teams

This is the signature southeastern Idaho night for water work: radar-indicated storms, urban and small-stream flooding, and a warning window that runs past 2:00 AM. Expect the calls to start as water recedes and keep coming for days as people discover what happened overnight. The damage categories to plan for: interior water intrusion through foundations, window wells and door thresholds; saturated drywall and insulation in finished basements; mold risk inside 24 to 48 hours on anything that stays wet; and sewage backup in low-lying areas where storm drains surcharge.

The play tonight: stage equipment now rather than at first call. Pre-position drying assets — air movers, dehumidifiers, extraction — so the first truck rolls complete. Keep an on-call rotation through the morning, because the discovery curve on overnight flooding peaks after sunrise. On the first call, capture the address, the water source, and every affected area before you quote anything.

Field discipline, same as always: photo-document before mitigation begins, moisture-map every affected room (not just the visibly wet one — water travels inside wall cavities), and keep the homeowner’s payment responsibility clear in writing before work starts. Night jobs with stressed homeowners are where scope misunderstandings are born.

Local emergency contacts

Bonneville County Emergency Management: (208) 529-1220 — bonnevillecountyidaho.gov/county-departments/emergency-management
Life-threatening emergency: 911
Bonneville County non-emergency dispatch: (208) 529-1200
Idaho Office of Emergency Management: ioem.idaho.gov

FEMA and federal assistance

If the flooding damages your home and you need help beyond what insurance covers, the FEMA Helpline is 1-800-621-3362, open 7 a.m. to 10 p.m. local time, seven days a week. You can also apply at DisasterAssistance.gov, through the FEMA app, or find a recovery center at fema.gov/drc.

Basic eligibility: U.S. citizenship or qualified status, identity verification, proof of occupancy or ownership, and unmet needs not covered by insurance. Don’t wait — apply as soon as it’s safe.

Looking ahead

The Idaho Falls warning expires at 2:00 AM MDT, and the neighboring burn scar warning at 2:30 AM MDT. When a warning expires, that doesn’t mean the water is gone — small creeks and streams often crest after the rain ends, and saturated ground means any additional round of storms overnight floods faster than the first. Storms can arrive in multiple rounds overnight, so watch the NWS Pocatello page for extensions or new warnings.

For contractors: the demand window on this kind of event opens within hours of water receding and stays open for days. Homeowners discover basement water in the morning, call around midday, and the serious mitigation decisions land over the weekend. Be reachable, be first with the moisture map, and be the contractor who documented everything.

Sources and how to verify

NWS Pocatello office page — warnings, updates and extensions post here first.
weather.gov — enter your ZIP code for the warnings covering exactly where you are.
Alert data via the National Weather Service API (api.weather.gov), warnings active as of 12:06 AM MDT Friday, September 18.

To verify for your own county or ZIP: open weather.gov, enter your ZIP, and read the active alerts banner at the top of the page. If Bonneville or Jefferson County is listed, this warning covers you.

This post is for informational purposes and is not an official weather warning. Always follow instructions from local authorities and the National Weather Service. Stay weather-aware around flash flooding — turn around, don’t drown.

September 18, 2026

Storm Updates: Idaho–Utah Marginal, Dakotas Flood Slight — Thursday, September 17, 2026

This is a live Thursday afternoon snapshot of U.S. local-storm activity as of Thursday, September 17, 2026. The Storm Prediction Center 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook holds a Marginal Risk of isolated severe wind gusts and hail this afternoon and evening over parts of Idaho and Utah and a small part of the central High Plains. No convective watches are valid. Mesoscale Discussion 2304 covers southern and central Idaho with a 20 percent chance of a watch. The Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook remains the organized ticket: Slight Risk over portions of the north-central Plains and Midwest and over the southwestern U.S. There is no named tropical cyclone in the Atlantic, eastern Pacific, or central Pacific.

These are county- and ZIP-scale thunderstorms and flash-flood pulses, not a mainland hurricane landfall. Restoration exposure this afternoon is isolated hail and wind if cells verify over the Snake River Plain and Wasatch Front, plus water from the Wyoming Front Range across South Dakota into southwest Minnesota and leftover Southwest terrain. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What is live this afternoon

SPC issued the 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook at 0247 PM CDT, valid 172000Z–181200Z. Forecasters Chalmers and Weinman made no changes from the midday package. Headline: thunderstorms with isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be possible over parts of the Intermountain West this afternoon and evening. A few strong to severe gusts may also occur across portions of the central High Plains. Risk-area population centers listed by SPC include Salt Lake City, West Valley City, Provo, West Jordan, and Orem. Categorical risk is Marginal only. No Slight Risk. No tornado probabilities in the 2000 UTC package. The Ohio Valley Marginal from Wednesday remains off the map.

Current convective watches: none. SPC watch page last updated 2059 UTC Thursday: no watches currently valid. Most recently issued watch remains Severe Thunderstorm Watch 669, already expired. Do not treat 669 as a live product.

MCD 2304, issued 0246 PM CDT and valid 1946Z–2215Z, covers parts of southern and central Idaho. Concerning: severe potential, watch unlikely. Probability of watch issuance: 20 percent. Summary: the risk of a few severe storms capable of producing large hail and severe wind gusts will increase through the remainder of the afternoon. Most probable peak wind gust 55–70 mph. Most probable peak hail size 1.00–1.75 inches. Offices tagged: Pocatello, Missoula, Boise. By late afternoon the live MD list showed no mesoscale discussions currently in effect; treat 2304 as the latest issued discussion, not a standing watch.

WPC Day 1 excessive-rainfall language valid 12Z Thursday through 12Z Friday still has two Slight Risk corridors. One is a high-end Slight across much of South Dakota, expanding toward Sioux Falls and into southwestern Minnesota and northwest Iowa, and west-southwest to the Cheyenne, Wyoming region east of the Laramie Range. The other holds Slight Risk over New Mexico and eastern Arizona into the San Juans and western Colorado, with Marginal coverage into the Salt Lake corridor and southeastern Idaho. Wednesday’s Moderate Risk over southern and central Arizona is aftermath, not a live upgrade.

Hotspot 1 — Southern and central Idaho into northern Utah

Morning water vapor showed an upper low over northern California with a band of strong flow aloft and embedded shortwave troughs across Nevada into Utah and Idaho. Strong heating was expected to aid scattered thunderstorms from southern Idaho into northern Utah by mid-afternoon. Sufficient vertical shear is present for rotating updrafts capable of large hail and gusty or damaging winds. Coverage is limited. SPC still expects one or two severe cells later today, mainly over the eastern Snake River Plain. The 18Z Boise sounding in MCD 2304 sampled steep deep-layer lapse rates and an elongating, mostly straight hodograph with about 30–40 kt of cloud-layer shear. Cells first. Small clusters later if outflow organizes.

Overnight LSRs already put quarter-size hail at Huntington in Emery County and at East Carbon and Sunnyside in Carbon County. That is the same Salt Lake City forecast office that owns this afternoon’s Utah cells.

Restoration read: hail first if discrete cells fire over the Snake River Plain, Boise, Pocatello, or the Wasatch Front. Wind second if storms cluster. Stage roof and auto-glass survey capacity before the first warning, not after. Flash-flood risk on this corridor is Marginal to isolated, not the organized Dakotas ticket.

Hotspot 2 — Dakotas water corridor and the High Plains wind overlay

Remnants of a weak tropical low tracked northeast across the Four Corners this morning. Ample moisture and weak ascent support considerable clouds and scattered thunderstorms over the Colorado mountains and southern Wyoming, spreading east into eastern Colorado and western Nebraska and Kansas. High-based convection poses a risk of locally damaging wind gusts. Daytime heating is the limiter because of lingering cloud cover. That is the SPC Marginal overlay: isolated gusts, not a Slight Risk wind event.

WPC is more organized here than SPC. A tropical-origin shortwave ejecting out of Arizona pivots through the central Rockies and into the northern Plains tonight. Precipitable-water anomalies approach the 95th–99th percentile from South Dakota into southern Minnesota by the end of the period. Discussion language includes 2–4 inches, locally higher, with HREF neighborhood probabilities of greater than 2 inches at 50–80 percent across a large High Plains swath. The centroid of greater-than-3-inch probabilities sits just east and southeast of Rapid City into Badlands National Park. The Slight Risk was expanded east toward Sioux Falls for the last 6–8 hours of the forecast.

Restoration read: water first from the Wyoming Front Range across western and central South Dakota into southwest Minnesota and northwest Iowa tonight into Friday morning. Wind second if High Plains clusters organize. Do not send one crew to both a Cheyenne gust and a Rapid City wash without checking which county has a warning now.

Hotspot 3 — Southwest terrain leftover plus Ohio just-hit

The shortwave that drove Wednesday’s Arizona Moderate flood risk is leaving. WPC still keeps a Slight Risk over New Mexico and eastern Arizona into the San Juans and Sacramentos. Guidance still prints 1–3 inches on the Sangre de Cristos, San Juans, and interior New Mexico terrain. Sacramento Mountains burn-scar sensitivity remains in the discussion as locally Moderate impacts embedded inside a higher-end Slight. That is runoff on ground that already took water Wednesday, not a new Moderate upgrade.

Ohio is off today’s SPC Marginal. It is the just-hit desk. Overnight LSRs from the 16/1200Z–17/1159Z window include multiple trees down in Versailles and Piqua, a snapped hardwood onto a home awning in Darke County, barn sheet-metal loss and a blown silo near West Alexandria in Preble County, and trees and wires southeast of Mansfield in Richland County. NWS Cleveland had severe thunderstorm warnings into mid-evening Wednesday for Richland, Ashland, Holmes, and Knox counties. Those products are expired. The trees are still on the lines.

Just hit

SPC preliminary storm reports for the current 17/1200Z–18/1159Z cycle show no tornado, hail, or wind reports as of this afternoon desk. That is expected. The Intermountain and High Plains threats are still an afternoon and evening problem.

The last 24-hour ticket pile sits on the prior cycle (16/1200Z–17/1159Z): no tornadoes. Hail: 1.00 inch at Huntington, Emery County, Utah; 1.00 inch at East Carbon and Sunnyside, Carbon County, Utah; 1.00 to 1.25 inches near Linn Creek, Camden County, Missouri, with two-foot-diameter limbs down. Wind: downed power lines in Mesa, Maricopa County, Arizona; trees in Versailles, Darke County, and Piqua and Lockington, Miami County, Ohio; a snapped pole and large limb near Broken Arrow, Tulsa County, Oklahoma; a power line and a condo-garage roof near Osage Beach and Linn Creek, Missouri; barn roofing and a grain silo near West Alexandria, Preble County, Ohio; trees and wires southeast of Mansfield.

This morning’s Storm Tracker already covered the same outlook family at 1300 UTC. This afternoon desk updates to the 2000 UTC package, adds MCD 2304, and confirms still-zero watches and still-zero LSRs on today’s cycle.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS / WPC level	Status this afternoon
Southern / central ID into northern UT	Isolated hail and severe gusts; possible small clusters	SPC Marginal; MCD 2304 watch unlikely	Live afternoon–evening cells
NE CO / western NE / High Plains	Isolated severe gusts	SPC Marginal	Late afternoon clusters if heating punches
WY Front Range / SD / SW MN / NW IA	Flash flood, 2–4″ swaths	WPC Slight (high-end over SD)	Today’s organized water ticket
NM / E AZ / San Juans / Sacramentos	Flash flood, burn-scar debris flow	WPC Slight; leftover from Wed Moderate	Diurnal terrain cells
Western / north-central OH	Trees, wires, barn and roof damage	LSRs overnight; warnings expired	Just-hit
Emery / Carbon UT; Camden MO	Quarter to half-dollar hail	LSRs overnight	Just-hit / same offices own today’s risk
Atlantic / Gulf vs. U.S. mainland	No named cyclone	NHC: no tropical cyclones	Quiet on the mainland coast

What this means for restoration teams

Isolated severe hail on the Snake River Plain and Wasatch Front is a roof and auto-glass survey ticket if cells verify over Boise, Pocatello, Salt Lake, or Provo. Isolated High Plains gusts are tree, siding, and gutter work in a thin corridor. The organized ticket today is still water from the Wyoming Front Range across South Dakota into southwest Minnesota and northwest Iowa tonight. Flash flooding on leftover Arizona–New Mexico terrain is wet drywall and a same-night extraction clock if water is inside a structure that already took rain Wednesday. Ohio trees-on-wires from last night are a separate staffing problem from this afternoon’s West.

For teams near the Intermountain Marginal: stage before mid-afternoon local. Property owners should photograph damage in daylight if it is safe, call the carrier, and start extraction the same night if water is inside. Turn around, don’t drown on High Plains and Southwest washes.

What this is not

This is not a Slight Risk severe day, not a live convective watch, and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. MCD 2304 is watch-unlikely, not a watch. NHC reports no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, eastern Pacific, or central Pacific as of this afternoon. The work, if it verifies, will be scattered: a hail swath through an Idaho or Utah county, a gust cluster on the High Plains, and heavier rain over South Dakota terrain tonight.

Looking ahead

SPC Day 2 (Friday, 1730 UTC package) holds Marginal Risk of isolated severe storms across parts of Idaho and Utah, Nebraska and Iowa, and the Piedmont of the Carolinas into north Georgia. Population centers listed on that outlook include Charlotte, Atlanta, Omaha, Lincoln, and Greensboro. WPC’s Day 1 water corridor over the Dakotas is the bridge into the Plains Marginal. The next Storm Tracker update should re-check the 0100 UTC Day 1 outlook and any new watches rather than assuming this afternoon’s Marginal stays the last word.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center Sep 17, 2026 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook (Chalmers/Weinman); Mesoscale Discussion 2304 (Weinman/Hart); current convective watches (none valid; last issued Watch 669); SPC preliminary storm reports for the 20260917 cycle and 20260916 cycle; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (Kleebauer); National Hurricane Center Tropical Weather Outlook, September 17, 2026; NWS warning text archive including Cleveland OH overnight products now expired.

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watch, MD, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay. Morning desk for this calendar day: Storm Updates: Intermountain West + High Plains Marginal, Dakotas Flood Slight — Thursday, September 17, 2026 (Morning).

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

September 17, 2026

Category: Storm Tracker

East Central Jeff Davis County, TX — Flash Flood Warning

Stay safe right now

What this means for restoration teams

FEMA & federal assistance

Looking ahead

Sources & how to verify

What is live this morning

Hotspot 1 — Central Plains Slight Risk (Kansas axis)

Hotspot 2 — Midwest Moderate excessive rainfall (already hitting)

Hotspot 3 — Southern Montana Moderate flood + High Plains leftover wind

Just hit

Pulse table

What this means for restoration teams

What this is not

Looking ahead

Sources and how to verify

Northern Fillmore and Mower Counties — Flash Flood Warning

Stay safe tonight

What this means for restoration teams

FEMA & federal assistance

Looking ahead

Sources & how to verify

Southern Fillmore County — Flash Flood Warning

Stay safe tonight

What this means for restoration teams

FEMA & federal assistance

Looking ahead

Sources & how to verify

Waseca and Surrounding Counties — Flash Flood Warning

Stay safe tonight

What this means for restoration teams

FEMA & federal assistance

Looking ahead

Sources & how to verify

What is live this afternoon

Hotspot 1 — Carolina Piedmont into northern Georgia

Hotspot 2 — Upper Mississippi Valley water

Hotspot 3 — Intermountain West and central High Plains

Just hit

Pulse table

What this means for restoration teams

What this is not

Looking ahead

Sources and how to verify

What is live this morning

Overnight into this morning

Hotspot 1 — Carolinas into northern Georgia

Hotspot 2 — Iowa and the Upper Mississippi Valley

Hotspot 3 — Intermountain West and central High Plains

Just hit

Pulse table

What this means for restoration teams

What this is not

Looking ahead

Sources and how to verify

Rexburg area — Flash Flood Warning

Stay safe tonight

What this means for restoration teams

Local emergency contacts

FEMA and federal assistance

Looking ahead

Sources and how to verify

Idaho Falls area — Flash Flood Warning

Stay safe tonight

What this means for restoration teams

Local emergency contacts

FEMA and federal assistance

Looking ahead

Sources and how to verify

What is live this afternoon

Hotspot 1 — Southern and central Idaho into northern Utah

Hotspot 2 — Dakotas water corridor and the High Plains wind overlay

Hotspot 3 — Southwest terrain leftover plus Ohio just-hit

Just hit

Pulse table

What this means for restoration teams

What this is not

Looking ahead

Sources and how to verify