Storm Updates: High Plains Hail Marginal, Nor’easter Wind Fade — Sunday, September 27, 2026 (Morning)

This is a live Sunday morning snapshot of U.S. local-storm activity as of Sunday, September 27, 2026. Overnight into this morning, the organized severe desk stayed quiet. No Storm Prediction Center tornado or severe thunderstorm watches are valid. The last issued convective watch remains Watch 674, already expired. The 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook, issued 0730 AM CDT and valid 271300Z–281200Z, holds a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms for portions of the central and northern High Plains. Summary language from Norman: isolated thunderstorms capable of large hail will be possible across portions of western Nebraska and the Black Hills of South Dakota. No tornado or damaging-wind probability areas are forecast. Restoration exposure this morning is leftover Mid-Atlantic and southern New England wind from the fading nor’easter, isolated High Plains hail later today, and a Weather Prediction Center Slight excessive-rainfall overlay on parts of southern New England.

Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What is live this morning

No convective watches are current. The SPC watch page states no watches are valid. Today’s storm-report window that opened at 1200 UTC Sunday shows no tornado, hail, or wind reports yet. The overnight board from the Saturday convective day is thin and local: quarter-size hail near Lake Lawtonka in Comanche County, Oklahoma, at 0033 UTC, plus trees down about seven miles west of Central High and roadway damage about six miles north of Hulen in the same county just before 0000 UTC. That is yesterday’s western Oklahoma Marginal verifying as isolated cells, not a watch overlay that carried into Sunday.

The 1300 UTC Day 1 outlook draws a 5 percent hail contour over about 48,893 square miles and roughly 328,899 people. Larger centers inside the contour include Rapid City, Spearfish, Rapid Valley, and Sturgis in South Dakota, and Scottsbluff, Nebraska. A residual moist axis with 60s F surface dewpoints still reaches from the southern Plains into Nebraska and South Dakota. Forcing stays weak through the day, which should keep coverage isolated. Evening coverage may increase as a subtle vorticity maximum and a modest low-level jet arrive. Large hail is the named hazard with the strongest storms. SPC also notes scattered thunderstorms over north and central Texas late this afternoon and isolated to widely scattered storms from northern Utah into central Wyoming, with localized gusty winds possible but not enough confidence for a low-probability severe highlight.

The Weather Prediction Center short-range discussion issued 422 AM EDT Sunday keeps a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of southern New England on Sunday into Monday morning. The same discussion holds a Moderate Risk for Monday over parts of the Southwest, Great Basin, and central and southern Rockies — that is tomorrow’s water desk, not this morning’s. A strong nor’easter still drifts near the New Jersey coastline. WPC language: widespread minor to moderate coastal flooding is expected for at least one more high-tide cycle Sunday morning after significant coastal flooding Saturday. Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph remain possible Sunday morning from New Jersey to Long Island. NWS wind advisories were still live into noon EDT for New York City, Long Island, coastal and southeast Connecticut, the Hudson Valley, and the Berkshires. Gale Warnings remain on New England coastal waters. Dense fog was also in play early this morning over parts of south-central Nebraska and north-central Kansas until 11 AM CDT. A Flood Advisory covers pieces of Bourbon and Crawford Counties in southeastern Kansas into early afternoon.

Hotspot 1 — Western Nebraska and the Black Hills

This is the only categorical severe area on the Sunday Day 1 map. Isolated storms capable of large hail are the forecast, not a wind outbreak and not a tornado corridor. Heating on the western edge of the moist plume can build moderate buoyancy over western Nebraska even with some high cloud. Storm coverage stays limited until evening lift arrives.

Cities and counties to watch: Rapid City, Spearfish, Sturgis, and the Black Hills foothills in South Dakota; Scottsbluff and the Nebraska Panhandle. Restoration read: isolated hail dents and a few broken windows if a cell organizes, not a regional wind swath. Staff lightning and a tarp kit. Do not pre-position as if a Slight is coming.

Hotspot 2 — Mid-Atlantic and southern New England nor’easter fade

The live work here is leftover high wind, trees, wires, tidal water, and one more high-tide cycle — not an SPC convective watch. Saturday’s High Wind Warnings have largely rolled off into Wind Advisories and marine Gale Warnings. WPC is explicit that coastal and tidal flooding matter more than rainfall totals on the cold side of the low. Southern New England still sits under a Slight excessive-rainfall risk for localized urban and poor-drainage flooding as the rain slowly wanes.

Restoration read: this is the just-hit pile from Saturday night into Sunday morning. Check trees on service drops, wet basements, and coastal roads at high tide. Do not treat it as a new severe-thunderstorm outbreak. This is not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. Tropical Depression Fay is well west-southwest of the Azores. Hurricane Polo is a Baja California Sur forecast. Hurricane Nolo remains a Hawaii desk.

Hotspot 3 — North and central Texas, Utah–Wyoming scatter

SPC leaves these areas outside the Marginal contour. Scattered storms over north and central Texas late afternoon, plus isolated to widely scattered storms from northern Utah into central Wyoming, can still throw localized gusty winds. Coverage and magnitude were not enough for a 5 percent wind highlight on the 1300 UTC update. Treat local Severe Thunderstorm Warnings if they fire. Do not invent a watch.

Just hit

Sunday’s 1200 UTC storm-report window is empty as of this morning desk: no tornado, hail, or wind LSRs yet today. Overnight into early Sunday, the Saturday report day closed with isolated Comanche County, Oklahoma work — quarter hail northeast of Lake Lawtonka and trees plus roadway damage west of Central High and north of Hulen. That is the just-hit convective ticket. The larger just-hit desk is coastal wind and tidal water from New Jersey through southern New England after Saturday’s nor’easter blow.

Pulse table

What this means for restoration teams

Sunday morning is a quiet-pulse-plus-leftover desk. The convective piece is a small High Plains hail Marginal with no watch and an empty Sunday LSR board. Treat that as isolated cells later today, not a regional event. The live volume is already on the ground along the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England coast: trees, wires, and wet interiors from Saturday into this morning’s last high tide. Interior water still starts a 24–48 hour mold clock. Photograph in daylight if it is safe. Do not drive flooded coastal roads at high tide.

What this is not

This is not a regional derecho and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. SPC has one Marginal hail area and no Slight or higher. No convective watch is up. Today’s LSR board is empty. The nor’easter is a fading high-wind and coastal-flood event on the cold side of the low. That is the local-storm pattern this desk should staff.

Looking ahead

SPC Day 2 and Day 3 convective outlooks carry no severe thunderstorm areas. WPC lifts a Moderate excessive-rainfall risk Monday over parts of the Southwest, Great Basin, and central and southern Rockies, with a Slight over parts of the Upper Midwest Monday. Watch the afternoon Storm Tracker rather than assuming the High Plains Marginal is the last line of the week.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook for Sunday, September 27, 2026 (issued 0730 AM CDT); SPC current watch page (no watches valid; last issued Watch 674); SPC storm reports for 1200 UTC September 26 through 1159 UTC September 27 and the new Sunday window from 1200 UTC September 27; Weather Prediction Center Short Range Forecast Discussion issued 422 AM EDT Sunday; National Weather Service wind-advisory, gale-warning, dense-fog, and flood-advisory text; National Hurricane Center Tropical Weather Outlook (Fay well west-southwest of the Azores; no U.S. mainland tropical cyclone landfall).

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watch, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay. Prior desk: Saturday afternoon, September 26 storm updates.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.