Tag: New York storms

  • Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse, Northeast Flood Slight — Sunday, September 27, 2026

    Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse, Northeast Flood Slight — Sunday, September 27, 2026

    This is a live Sunday afternoon snapshot of U.S. local-storm activity as of Sunday, September 27, 2026. The organized severe desk is quiet. The Storm Prediction Center 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook states no severe thunderstorm areas are forecast and organized severe storms are not expected through early Monday. No convective watches are valid. Restoration exposure this afternoon is leftover nor’easter wind and water on the coastal Northeast, isolated gusty outflow from north Texas cells, and urban ponding where WPC keeps a Slight excessive-rainfall risk from New Jersey through southern New England.

    These are county-scale thunderstorms and a fading coastal cyclone, not a mainland hurricane landfall. Conditions change. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

    What is live this afternoon

    SPC issued the 2000 UTC (2:57 p.m. CDT) Day 1 outlook with the categorical line removed. The morning Marginal over western Nebraska and the Black Hills was taken off earlier; this cycle made no further change. Isolated convection was ongoing across portions of central and north Texas near 1945 UTC. SPC notes an isolated strong or damaging gust cannot be ruled out given steep low-level lapse rates and moderate buoyancy, but weak lower-tropospheric flow, limited effective shear, and poor mid-level lapse rates keep the severe probability under 5 percent.

    A few additional thunderstorms remain possible late this afternoon and evening along a diffuse surface boundary from north Texas into southern Oklahoma. An occluded cyclone continues to weaken near the northern Mid-Atlantic coast, with elevated convection and isolated lightning possible to its northeast across southeast New England. Elevated storms over central South Dakota this morning were described as already past peak.

    Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (valid 12 UTC Sunday through 12 UTC Monday) holds a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall for parts of the coastal Northeast — New Jersey, southern New York, and southern to central New England. Additional rainfall of 1 to 3 inches, locally heavier, is the language over the NYC metro into eastern Massachusetts. A Marginal Risk covers parts of Upstate New York and central New England, plus a separate Marginal from the Texas Hill Country into south-central Oklahoma. Isolated low-end flood potential is noted over portions of northern Arizona as moisture associated with Hurricane Polo begins to lift north of the Mexican coast.

    High Wind Warnings that covered Eastern Monmouth and Coastal Ocean Counties in New Jersey and Long Island and adjacent Connecticut zones were in effect until noon EDT Sunday. Those products have expired. Tree-and-wire work from the overnight gusts is a just-hit desk, not a live warning desk.

    Hotspot 1 — Coastal Northeast flood slight, wind fade

    The live organized threat here is water, not a new severe watch. The slow-moving nor’easter lingering near northern New Jersey and eastern Long Island is still funneling moisture across southern New England. Instability is low, so instantaneous rates are not the main story. Saturated soils from coastal inundation and prior heavy rain keep urban streets, poor drainage, and small streams in play.

    Cities and counties to watch: New York City and Long Island; Eastern Monmouth and Coastal Ocean Counties, New Jersey; New London and Middlesex Counties, Connecticut; eastern Massachusetts including the Boston metro. Restoration read: extraction and drying from last night’s wind-driven rain, plus ponding calls if the Slight Risk verifies. Photograph roofs in remaining daylight only if it is safe. Do not treat this as a new High Wind Warning — those expired at noon EDT.

    Hotspot 2 — North Texas into southern Oklahoma scatter

    This is the only convective corridor SPC is still talking about on the afternoon update. Isolated cells were already up over central and north Texas mid-afternoon. The same diffuse boundary can support a few more storms into southern Oklahoma this evening. Gusty outflow is the listed hazard. Hail and tornado probabilities are not highlighted.

    Cities and counties to watch: the Dallas–Fort Worth periphery, Waco and Temple corridors, Wichita Falls, and counties along the Red River into southern Oklahoma. WPC’s Marginal excessive-rainfall pocket from the Texas Hill Country into south-central Oklahoma is the flood overlay on the same air mass. Restoration read: isolated wind and brief heavy rain. Staff local Severe Thunderstorm Warnings if they fire; do not staff a regional outbreak that SPC has already declined to draw.

    Hotspot 3 — High Plains leftover and northern Arizona moisture

    The morning Marginal for large hail over western Nebraska and the Black Hills is gone. SPC says the central South Dakota convection has already peaked and that any overnight elevated storms from western South Dakota into North Dakota carry only a low isolated-hail threat. NWS Aberdeen did issue a Severe Thunderstorm Warning this morning for parts of Stanley, Sully, and Dewey Counties, South Dakota — 60 mph gusts and quarter-size hail, radar indicated, until 10:00 a.m. CDT. That product is expired.

    Northern Arizona is a low-end flood mention only, as flow turns southwest ahead of a trough digging into California and begins to draw moisture associated with Hurricane Polo. Polo itself is a Baja California Sur hurricane, not a U.S. mainland landfall. Restoration read: check whether any local flash-flood warning is actually live before rolling a crew. The outlook language is not a warning.

    Just hit

    SPC today’s storm-report page for the 1200 UTC Sunday through 1159 UTC Monday window showed no tornado, hail, or wind LSRs as of this afternoon scan. The morning desk already logged overnight Comanche County, Oklahoma wind and quarter hail from Saturday night. Mid-Atlantic High Wind Warnings that ran through noon EDT Sunday are the other just-hit pile: trees, service drops, and coastal water intrusion on the Jersey Shore, Long Island, and southern New England.

    That is ticket work already on the books, not a new watch. Hurricane Nolo remains south of the Hawaiian Islands and is not a CONUS landfall. Hurricane Polo is a Mexico / Baja desk. Tropical Depression Fay is well west-southwest of the Azores. None of those systems is a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall this afternoon.

    Pulse table

    RegionMain threatsSPC / NWS levelStatus this afternoon
    Coastal Northeast (NJ / NYC / southern New England)Urban flood, leftover wind damageWPC Slight excessive rainfall; High Wind Warnings expired noon EDTLive flood slight / wind fade
    North Texas / southern OklahomaIsolated gusty outflow, brief heavy rainSPC no severe area; WPC Marginal flood (Hill Country–south-central OK)Scattered cells
    Western NE / Black Hills / central SDIsolated hail earlier; now quietMorning MRGL removed; SVR warning expired 10 a.m. CDTQuiet
    Northern ArizonaIsolated heavy rainWPC low-end mentionQuiet / watch local products
    CONUS Atlantic / Gulf coastNo landfalling hurricaneNHC systems offshore (Fay, Polo, Nolo)Quiet on the mainland

    What this means for restoration teams

    Sunday afternoon is a close-out and water day, not a chase day. Northeast shops should finish tree-and-roof tickets from the expired High Wind Warnings and stay ready for urban water calls if the Slight Risk trains on already-wet ground. North Texas and southern Oklahoma shops watch local warnings only. High Plains shops can stand down the morning hail Marginal.

    Wind that already happened is siding, gutter, and tree-on-structure work. New water on a Slight Risk is wet drywall and a 24–48 hour mold clock. Photograph in daylight if it is safe, call the carrier, and start extraction the same night if water is inside.

    What this is not

    This is not a regional derecho and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. SPC has no severe thunderstorm area and no watch. Polo is Baja. Nolo is south of Hawaii. Fay is mid-Atlantic open water. Do not invent a named-CAT desk on the CONUS from those tracks.

    Looking ahead

    SPC Day 2 (Monday) also has no severe thunderstorm areas forecast. Severe thunderstorm probability remains low. WPC discussion language for Monday raises a Moderate excessive-rainfall risk over parts of the Southwest, Great Basin, and central and southern Rockies as Polo moisture is drawn inland — that is tomorrow’s flood overlay, not today’s. Watch the next Storm Tracker update rather than assuming Sunday’s quiet line holds after 12 UTC Monday.

    Sources and how to verify

    Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center Sep 27, 2026 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook (Chalmers/Guyer); SPC current watches page updated 1705 UTC Sunday (no watches valid); SPC today’s storm reports (20260927 1200–1159 UTC window); Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook updated 0812 UTC Sunday; NWS warning text including expired High Wind Warnings (Mount Holly and Upton) and the expired Aberdeen Severe Thunderstorm Warning; National Hurricane Center public products for Polo, Nolo, and Fay. Morning desk for this calendar day: Storm Updates: High Plains Hail Marginal, Nor’easter Wind Fade — Sunday, September 27, 2026 (Morning).

    Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watch, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay.

    Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

  • Storm Updates: High Plains Hail Marginal, Nor’easter Wind Fade — Sunday, September 27, 2026 (Morning)

    Storm Updates: High Plains Hail Marginal, Nor’easter Wind Fade — Sunday, September 27, 2026 (Morning)

    This is a live Sunday morning snapshot of U.S. local-storm activity as of Sunday, September 27, 2026. Overnight into this morning, the organized severe desk stayed quiet. No Storm Prediction Center tornado or severe thunderstorm watches are valid. The last issued convective watch remains Watch 674, already expired. The 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook, issued 0730 AM CDT and valid 271300Z–281200Z, holds a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms for portions of the central and northern High Plains. Summary language from Norman: isolated thunderstorms capable of large hail will be possible across portions of western Nebraska and the Black Hills of South Dakota. No tornado or damaging-wind probability areas are forecast. Restoration exposure this morning is leftover Mid-Atlantic and southern New England wind from the fading nor’easter, isolated High Plains hail later today, and a Weather Prediction Center Slight excessive-rainfall overlay on parts of southern New England.

    Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

    What is live this morning

    No convective watches are current. The SPC watch page states no watches are valid. Today’s storm-report window that opened at 1200 UTC Sunday shows no tornado, hail, or wind reports yet. The overnight board from the Saturday convective day is thin and local: quarter-size hail near Lake Lawtonka in Comanche County, Oklahoma, at 0033 UTC, plus trees down about seven miles west of Central High and roadway damage about six miles north of Hulen in the same county just before 0000 UTC. That is yesterday’s western Oklahoma Marginal verifying as isolated cells, not a watch overlay that carried into Sunday.

    The 1300 UTC Day 1 outlook draws a 5 percent hail contour over about 48,893 square miles and roughly 328,899 people. Larger centers inside the contour include Rapid City, Spearfish, Rapid Valley, and Sturgis in South Dakota, and Scottsbluff, Nebraska. A residual moist axis with 60s F surface dewpoints still reaches from the southern Plains into Nebraska and South Dakota. Forcing stays weak through the day, which should keep coverage isolated. Evening coverage may increase as a subtle vorticity maximum and a modest low-level jet arrive. Large hail is the named hazard with the strongest storms. SPC also notes scattered thunderstorms over north and central Texas late this afternoon and isolated to widely scattered storms from northern Utah into central Wyoming, with localized gusty winds possible but not enough confidence for a low-probability severe highlight.

    The Weather Prediction Center short-range discussion issued 422 AM EDT Sunday keeps a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of southern New England on Sunday into Monday morning. The same discussion holds a Moderate Risk for Monday over parts of the Southwest, Great Basin, and central and southern Rockies — that is tomorrow’s water desk, not this morning’s. A strong nor’easter still drifts near the New Jersey coastline. WPC language: widespread minor to moderate coastal flooding is expected for at least one more high-tide cycle Sunday morning after significant coastal flooding Saturday. Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph remain possible Sunday morning from New Jersey to Long Island. NWS wind advisories were still live into noon EDT for New York City, Long Island, coastal and southeast Connecticut, the Hudson Valley, and the Berkshires. Gale Warnings remain on New England coastal waters. Dense fog was also in play early this morning over parts of south-central Nebraska and north-central Kansas until 11 AM CDT. A Flood Advisory covers pieces of Bourbon and Crawford Counties in southeastern Kansas into early afternoon.

    Hotspot 1 — Western Nebraska and the Black Hills

    This is the only categorical severe area on the Sunday Day 1 map. Isolated storms capable of large hail are the forecast, not a wind outbreak and not a tornado corridor. Heating on the western edge of the moist plume can build moderate buoyancy over western Nebraska even with some high cloud. Storm coverage stays limited until evening lift arrives.

    Cities and counties to watch: Rapid City, Spearfish, Sturgis, and the Black Hills foothills in South Dakota; Scottsbluff and the Nebraska Panhandle. Restoration read: isolated hail dents and a few broken windows if a cell organizes, not a regional wind swath. Staff lightning and a tarp kit. Do not pre-position as if a Slight is coming.

    Hotspot 2 — Mid-Atlantic and southern New England nor’easter fade

    The live work here is leftover high wind, trees, wires, tidal water, and one more high-tide cycle — not an SPC convective watch. Saturday’s High Wind Warnings have largely rolled off into Wind Advisories and marine Gale Warnings. WPC is explicit that coastal and tidal flooding matter more than rainfall totals on the cold side of the low. Southern New England still sits under a Slight excessive-rainfall risk for localized urban and poor-drainage flooding as the rain slowly wanes.

    Restoration read: this is the just-hit pile from Saturday night into Sunday morning. Check trees on service drops, wet basements, and coastal roads at high tide. Do not treat it as a new severe-thunderstorm outbreak. This is not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. Tropical Depression Fay is well west-southwest of the Azores. Hurricane Polo is a Baja California Sur forecast. Hurricane Nolo remains a Hawaii desk.

    Hotspot 3 — North and central Texas, Utah–Wyoming scatter

    SPC leaves these areas outside the Marginal contour. Scattered storms over north and central Texas late afternoon, plus isolated to widely scattered storms from northern Utah into central Wyoming, can still throw localized gusty winds. Coverage and magnitude were not enough for a 5 percent wind highlight on the 1300 UTC update. Treat local Severe Thunderstorm Warnings if they fire. Do not invent a watch.

    Just hit

    Sunday’s 1200 UTC storm-report window is empty as of this morning desk: no tornado, hail, or wind LSRs yet today. Overnight into early Sunday, the Saturday report day closed with isolated Comanche County, Oklahoma work — quarter hail northeast of Lake Lawtonka and trees plus roadway damage west of Central High and north of Hulen. That is the just-hit convective ticket. The larger just-hit desk is coastal wind and tidal water from New Jersey through southern New England after Saturday’s nor’easter blow.

    Pulse table

    RegionMain threatsSPC / NWS / WPC levelStatus this morning
    Western NE / Black Hills SDIsolated large hailSPC 1300 UTC MarginalAfternoon into evening
    NJ / NYC / Long Island / southern New EnglandResidual wind, tidal flood, urban rainWind advisories; WPC Slight rainFading through Sunday
    Comanche County, OKTrees, quarter hailSaturday LSRsJust hit overnight
    North / central TX; northern UT–central WYLocalized gusty windGeneral thunderstormsLate day scatter
    CONUS severe watchesNoneNo watches; last was 674Quiet
    SPC LSRs today (from 12Z Sun)None yet0 tornado / 0 hail / 0 windQuiet

    What this means for restoration teams

    Sunday morning is a quiet-pulse-plus-leftover desk. The convective piece is a small High Plains hail Marginal with no watch and an empty Sunday LSR board. Treat that as isolated cells later today, not a regional event. The live volume is already on the ground along the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England coast: trees, wires, and wet interiors from Saturday into this morning’s last high tide. Interior water still starts a 24–48 hour mold clock. Photograph in daylight if it is safe. Do not drive flooded coastal roads at high tide.

    What this is not

    This is not a regional derecho and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. SPC has one Marginal hail area and no Slight or higher. No convective watch is up. Today’s LSR board is empty. The nor’easter is a fading high-wind and coastal-flood event on the cold side of the low. That is the local-storm pattern this desk should staff.

    Looking ahead

    SPC Day 2 and Day 3 convective outlooks carry no severe thunderstorm areas. WPC lifts a Moderate excessive-rainfall risk Monday over parts of the Southwest, Great Basin, and central and southern Rockies, with a Slight over parts of the Upper Midwest Monday. Watch the afternoon Storm Tracker rather than assuming the High Plains Marginal is the last line of the week.

    Sources and how to verify

    Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook for Sunday, September 27, 2026 (issued 0730 AM CDT); SPC current watch page (no watches valid; last issued Watch 674); SPC storm reports for 1200 UTC September 26 through 1159 UTC September 27 and the new Sunday window from 1200 UTC September 27; Weather Prediction Center Short Range Forecast Discussion issued 422 AM EDT Sunday; National Weather Service wind-advisory, gale-warning, dense-fog, and flood-advisory text; National Hurricane Center Tropical Weather Outlook (Fay well west-southwest of the Azores; no U.S. mainland tropical cyclone landfall).

    Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watch, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay. Prior desk: Saturday afternoon, September 26 storm updates.

    Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

  • Storm Updates: Upper Ohio Valley–Central New York Slight Risk — Sunday, September 13, 2026

    This is a live Sunday afternoon snapshot of local storm-type events across the United States as of Sunday, September 13, 2026. The Storm Prediction Center 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook holds a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms from the upper Ohio Valley into central New York, covering about 43,500 square miles and 8.3 million people, with Pittsburgh, Rochester, Akron, Syracuse, and Canton inside the higher contour. A broader Marginal Risk wraps Columbus, Cincinnati, Buffalo, Dayton, and Albany. No convective watches and no mesoscale discussions were in effect on the afternoon check. Restoration exposure this window is wind-driven roof and tree work on the Ohio–Pennsylvania–New York corridor, leftover Saturday water in the Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic, and a separate WPC flood Slight over southern New England plus eastern Kansas into western Missouri.

    These are county- and ZIP-scale thunderstorms, not a mainland hurricane landfall. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

    What is live this afternoon

    SPC upgraded portions of the corridor to Slight earlier Sunday with the 1630 UTC package and held that upgrade in the 2000 UTC update issued 2:57 p.m. CDT by forecaster Wendt. The language is isolated to widely scattered severe storms this afternoon and evening, mainly damaging wind along a cold front moving east through the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and Northeast. Deep-layer shear of 35–45 kt is enough for organized bands, short bowing segments, and a few initial supercells. Hail is secondary because lapse rates aloft are only about 6–6.5 C/km. Storms are expected to weaken with eastward extent this evening as nocturnal cooling and a less unstable airmass take over.

    As of the afternoon product cycle, SPC listed no watches valid (most recent issued watch was 667 on a prior day) and no mesoscale discussions in effect (most recent MD 2291). Today’s official LSR page covering 1200 UTC September 13 through 1159 UTC September 14 still showed no tornado, hail, or wind reports at the afternoon check — the front had not yet produced a logged severe report in that window.

    Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, valid 12 UTC September 13 through 12 UTC September 14 and issued 3:46 a.m. EDT, keeps Slight Risk areas over portions of the Northeast and the Central Plains. Southern New England language focuses on Long Island and coastal Connecticut and Rhode Island, with the threat expected to exit late afternoon. Central Plains language favors eastern Kansas and western Missouri overnight as a low-level jet strengthens. A Marginal Risk remains over the Southern Rockies and Four Corners on monsoon moisture and already-wet soils.

    Hotspot 1 — Upper Ohio Valley into central New York

    This is the live Slight contour. SPC expects widely scattered thunderstorms along and ahead of the front from parts of Ohio into western New York by mid-afternoon, then a quick eastward sweep across the upper Ohio Valley into the Northeast. Population centers inside the Slight: Pittsburgh, Rochester, Akron, Syracuse, Canton. Marginal ring includes Columbus, Cincinnati, Buffalo, Dayton, Albany.

    Counties to watch: Allegheny, Beaver, Butler, Westmoreland, and neighboring southwest Pennsylvania counties; Summit, Stark, Portage, and adjacent northeast Ohio counties; Monroe, Livingston, Ontario, Onondaga, and neighboring western and central New York counties. Lake-effect is not the story — this is a progressive cold-front band.

    Restoration read: wind first. Stage tarps, generators, and tree crews before dark even without a watch. If a warning includes heavy rain on soils already wet from Saturday, treat the same ZIP as a water job by morning. Photograph roofs in remaining daylight only if it is safe.

    Hotspot 2 — Southern New England flood leftover plus Mid-Atlantic runoff

    WPC’s Slight Risk for excessive rainfall over the Northeast is the second desk. Discussion from the 0748 UTC Sunday package: precipitable water up to about 2.25 inches, efficient rainfall rates, and concern for Long Island and coastal Connecticut and Rhode Island through mid-to-late morning into afternoon before the axis exits offshore. Flash Flood Warning text earlier Sunday covered eastern Worcester County, Maryland, including Ocean City and Berlin, with 1–2 inches already down and rates near 2 inches in 30 minutes. That warning window closed in the morning; the afternoon desk treats it as runoff and urban ponding unless a new warning fires.

    Saturday’s heavy rain is still in Appalachian channels. Overnight and early-Sunday Flood Warning and Flash Flood Statement text from Charleston, West Virginia, and Pittsburgh referenced lingering high water after 1–6 inches Saturday in pieces of Kanawha, Clay, Braxton, Gilmer, Lewis, Harrison, Doddridge, and southern Clarion County, Pennsylvania. Those are aftermath tickets, not a new Slight Risk.

    Restoration read: southern New England is today’s water if cells trained this morning. West Virginia and western Pennsylvania are yesterday’s water still in the street and the basement. Do not send the same crew to both stories without checking which county actually has a warning now.

    Hotspot 3 — High Plains scatter and Central Plains flood overnight

    SPC keeps isolated strong-to-severe storms possible across parts of the central and northern High Plains this afternoon and evening — southern Wyoming, northeast Colorado, and the Nebraska Panhandle in a modest upslope regime — then elevated storms increasing over western and central South Dakota toward the mid-Missouri Valley late tonight. Hail and gusts are the local threats, not a watch-scale line.

    WPC’s second Slight Risk sits on the Central Plains overnight. Guidance favors eastern Kansas and western Missouri, including low-to-moderate chances of more than 3 inches near the Kansas City metro in some 00Z HREF members. That is a Monday-morning extraction desk if cells train on the front.

    Restoration read: High Plains is isolated hail and wind. Kansas City–eastern Kansas–western Missouri is the overnight flood watch list, not this afternoon’s Ohio Valley wind list.

    Just hit

    Saturday’s (September 12, 1200 UTC through Sunday 1159 UTC) preliminary LSRs are already tickets. Kansas carried the hardest wind: Chanute Martin Johnson Airport logged 84 mph at 0545 UTC Sunday; Chanute dispatch reported power outages and tree branches; utility poles went down near Galesburg in Neosho County. Clark County, Kansas, mesonet gusts reached 75 mph near Acres. Cherokee County, Kansas, saw a hangar roof collapse near Hallowell and 70 mph estimated at West Mineral. Perryton, Texas, had 6–8 power poles snapped south of town and an uprooted tree. Kingfisher County, Oklahoma, reported snapped wooden poles and 60–70 mph gusts near Cashion.

    Hail: golf-ball (1.75 inch) at Beatrice, Nebraska, and Randall, Kansas; 2.00 inch near Coldwater and Wilmore in south-central Kansas; walnut-size at Holdrege, Nebraska. Pennsylvania already had tree-and-wire work Saturday afternoon across Washington, Allegheny, Jefferson, Westmoreland, Indiana, and Greene counties — including a tree on a house near Spraggs. A landspout was reported near Palm Coast, Florida, and an EF-0 survey was completed east of Spring Grove, Virginia. Those are closed survey items, not today’s Slight Risk.

    Pulse table

    RegionMain threatsSPC / NWS levelStatus this afternoon
    Upper OH Valley / SW PA / central NYDamaging wind, lightning, isolated hailSPC Slight (2000 UTC)Live outlook — no watch
    Columbus–Cincinnati–Buffalo ringIsolated strong windSPC MarginalConditional
    Long Island / coastal CT–RI–SE MAFlash flood, urban pondingWPC Slight EROWinding down late afternoon
    Eastern KS / western MOTraining heavy rain overnightWPC Slight EROTonight into Monday morning
    High Plains / western SDIsolated hail and gustsSPC isolated / MarginalAfternoon–overnight scatter
    Four Corners / S RockiesHeavy rain on wet soilsWPC MarginalMonsoon-style cells
    Saturday KS–OK–TX / PA treesWind, hail, trees, polesLSRs loggedAftermath / tickets
    Atlantic / Gulf vs. U.S. mainlandNo landfalling tropical cycloneNHC quiet AtlanticQuiet

    What this means for restoration teams

    A Slight Risk without a watch is still a staffing problem. The corridor from northeast Ohio through southwest Pennsylvania into Rochester and Syracuse can produce a few 58–65 mph gust swaths, trees on service drops, and isolated hail even if coverage stays widely scattered. Saturday’s 84 mph Chanute gust and snapped poles in Neosho, Cherokee, Kingfisher, and Ochiltree counties are already claims. Southern New England and Appalachian runoff is extraction and drying, not a new wind line.

    For teams in the Slight: stage before the first warning, not after. Property owners should photograph damage in daylight if it is safe, call the carrier, and start extraction the same night if water is inside. Turn around on flooded Appalachian and Delmarva roads — Saturday and early-Sunday warnings already documented closed pavement.

    What this is not

    This is not a regional derecho and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. The National Hurricane Center afternoon page showed no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic. Tropical Storm Norbert was moving west over the open eastern Pacific near 18.2°N, 132.7°W with 50 mph winds — not a U.S. land threat. Do not invent a watch that SPC has not issued. The work today, if it verifies, will be scattered: a wind swath through an Ohio, Pennsylvania, or New York county, leftover flood tickets from Saturday, and a possible overnight rain pulse toward Kansas City.

    Looking ahead

    SPC Day 2 Convective Outlook issued 12:29 p.m. CDT Sunday (valid 12 UTC Monday through 12 UTC Tuesday) places a Slight Risk from southeast Nebraska into western Iowa. Summary language: scattered strong to severe thunderstorms late Monday afternoon into early evening near Omaha, Lincoln, Des Moines, Council Bluffs, and Ames, with a Marginal ring toward Sioux City, Waterloo, and Grand Island. That is Monday’s desk. Tonight’s Ohio Valley–New York band should weaken after dark.

    Sources and how to verify

    Primary sources dated Sunday, September 13, 2026: NOAA Storm Prediction Center 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook; SPC current watches page (none valid); SPC current mesoscale discussions page (none in effect); SPC today’s storm reports (none received in the 13/1200–14/1159 UTC window at afternoon check) and September 12 LSR list; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook updated 0748 UTC; National Hurricane Center public page (no Atlantic tropical cyclones; TS Norbert over the eastern Pacific); National Weather Service watches/warnings text feed.

    Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watch, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay. Morning desk for this calendar day: Storm Updates: Ohio Valley–Northeast Marginal Risk, Kansas Wind Aftermath — Sunday, September 13, 2026 (Morning).

    Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

  • Storm Updates: Ohio–Pennsylvania–Western New York Slight Risk, Kansas–Missouri Flood Pulse — Wednesday, September 9, 2026

    This is a live Wednesday snapshot of local storm-type events across the United States as of the afternoon of Wednesday, September 9, 2026. The organized pulse is east of yesterday’s Iowa–Nebraska corridor. A Storm Prediction Center Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms covers central Ohio into northwest Pennsylvania and western New York, and Severe Thunderstorm Watch 665 is in effect until 11:00 p.m. EDT. Farther west, the Weather Prediction Center holds a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall from southeast Kansas into south-central Missouri, with smaller flood-risk pockets in southeast Colorado and the Arizona–New Mexico border country.

    These are county- and ZIP-scale thunderstorms, not a mainland hurricane landfall. Restoration exposure tonight is wind-driven roof and siding work, trees on service drops, isolated hail, and interior water where cells train. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

    What is live this afternoon

    Watch 665 covers western New York, northern Ohio, northwest Pennsylvania, the northern panhandle of West Virginia, and adjacent Lake Erie waters. Primary threat language is scattered damaging wind gusts to about 65 mph. SPC and NWS discussion also leaves room for a brief tornado, especially if a storm anchors on the surface boundary near the Ohio–Pennsylvania–New York border. Hail is secondary.

    A cold front still stretches on the order of a thousand miles from the Central Plains through the Great Lakes toward western New York. That is the same family of storms that wet Iowa and eastern Nebraska on Tuesday. Today the better-organized severe corridor is the eastern Great Lakes. Isolated strong-to-severe cells remain possible from the central Plains into the Ohio Valley, with a more disorganized, outflow-dominant mode west of the watch.

    Hotspot 1 — Northern Ohio, northwest Pennsylvania, western New York

    This is the live watch. Storms are expected to increase through late afternoon and evening in a warm, humid boundary layer with enough shear for organized multicells, short line segments, and transient supercells. Mesoscale discussion language from mid-afternoon: a few damaging gusts over the next few hours, brief tornado not ruled out.

    Cities and counties to watch: Cleveland, Akron, Canton, Parma, Mansfield, Lorain and Medina counties in Ohio; Erie, Crawford, Warren, Mercer, and neighboring northwest Pennsylvania counties; Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, and Allegany in western New York; the northern West Virginia panhandle.

    Restoration read: wind first. Stage tarps, generators, and tree crews before dark. If a cell trains or a warning includes heavy rain, treat the same ZIP as a water job by morning. Photograph roofs in remaining daylight only if it is safe.

    Hotspot 2 — Southeast Kansas into south-central Missouri, plus leftover Iowa water

    WPC’s Day 1 excessive-rainfall outlook keeps a Slight Risk from southeast Kansas into south-central Missouri. Guidance still supports training west-to-east overnight and 1-inch-per-hour rates in the better cores. Urban streets, low water crossings, and small streams are the first failures. A smaller slight-risk pocket sits over southeast Colorado early Thursday. Southeast Arizona into far southwest New Mexico stays in the same excessive-rainfall slight-risk language on monsoon-style cells.

    Iowa is not the new Slight Risk today, but it is still a just-hit desk. Flood warnings remain on pieces of the Des Moines system, including the Raccoon River at Des Moines and Walnut Creek. Tuesday’s rain is still in the channel. That is extraction and drying work already on the books, not a new watch.

    Restoration read: Kansas–Missouri is tonight’s flood ticket if cells stall. Iowa is yesterday’s water still moving through town. Do not send the same crew to both stories without checking which county actually has a warning now.

    Hotspot 3 — Central Plains and Southwest scatter

    Widely scattered slow-moving storms over hot, humid air in parts of Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas can still throw damaging gusts even when they stay below watch criteria. Local Severe Thunderstorm Warnings and Special Weather Statements have already fired in the Texas Panhandle and other High Plains counties this afternoon. Southern Arizona and New Mexico higher terrain can produce heavy rain and strong outflow on the same moisture axis as the WPC slight risk.

    Southwest Florida holds a marginal heavy-rain pocket in tropical moisture. That is a local urban-flood and lightning desk, not the national headline.

    Just hit

    Tuesday’s Iowa–Nebraska Slight Risk and the Kauai flood-and-outage work after Hurricane Lowell are yesterday’s tickets. Lowell continues to move away from the islands; there is no new U.S. mainland tropical landfall in the current National Hurricane Center outlook. Today’s new work, if it verifies, is the Ohio–Erie–western New York wind corridor plus localized flash flooding in the Kansas–Missouri slight-risk area.

    Pulse table

    RegionMain threatsSPC / NWS levelStatus this afternoon
    Northern OH / NW PA / western NYDamaging wind, lightning, brief tornado possibleSlight + Watch 665 to 11 p.m. EDTLive watch
    SE Kansas / south-central MissouriFlash flood, training heavy rainWPC Slight excessive rainfallTonight into Thursday morning
    Des Moines / central Iowa riversMinor river flooding from Tuesday rainFlood warningsAftermath / still in channel
    TX / OK / KS scatter + High PlainsGusty damaging wind, isolated warningsLocal SVR / SPSScattered
    SE AZ / SW NM / SE ColoradoHeavy rain, strong outflowWPC Slight (local)Afternoon–overnight cells
    Atlantic / Gulf vs. U.S. mainlandNo landfalling hurricaneQuiet on the mainland coastQuiet

    What this means for restoration teams

    Wind at 58–65 mph is roof, siding, gutter, and tree-on-structure work. A brief tornado, if one occurs, is a narrow swath — staff it as a local damage survey, not a regional event. Heavy rain on the Kansas–Missouri slight risk is wet drywall and a 24–48 hour mold clock. Iowa water is already inside some buildings from Tuesday.

    For teams in or near Watch 665: stage before 5 p.m. local, not after the first warning. Property owners should photograph damage in daylight if it is safe, call the carrier, and start extraction the same night if water is inside.

    What this is not

    This is not a regional derecho and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. The work tonight, if it comes, will be scattered: a wind swath through an Ohio or Pennsylvania county, a flooded intersection where Kansas or Missouri cells train, leftover river water in Des Moines. That is the local-storm pattern this desk should staff.

    Looking ahead

    Thursday the front slides toward the Mid-Atlantic, central Appalachians, and Ohio Valley with more wet weather and a continued flood watch in some of the same counties that take storms tonight. Later in the week, SPC language still flags another slight-risk window over parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley. Watch the next Storm Tracker update rather than assuming Watch 665 is the last line of the week.

    Sources and how to verify

    Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Convective Outlook and Severe Thunderstorm Watch 665 for Wednesday, September 9, 2026; SPC Mesoscale Discussion covering northern Ohio into northwest Pennsylvania and far western New York; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook; National Weather Service warning and flood-statement text for Cleveland, State College, Buffalo, Des Moines, Amarillo, and neighboring offices.

    Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watch, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay. Related desk: Tuesday, September 8 storm updates.

    Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

  • Storm Updates: 2.00″ Hail in Michigan, 83 MPH Gusts in Montana, Enhanced Risk in Western New York — September 2, 2026

    Storm Updates: 2.00″ Hail in Michigan, 83 MPH Gusts in Montana, Enhanced Risk in Western New York — September 2, 2026

    The Storm Prediction Center has an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms across western New York this afternoon and evening, with a Slight Risk over parts of Montana. Official Local Storm Reports already show 2.00″ hail in Michigan, 83 mph gusts at Great Falls, and a long tree-and-wire damage swath from western New York through Pennsylvania into Maryland and Virginia.

    This is a live snapshot for Wednesday, September 2, 2026, built from NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center products and preliminary LSRs. Conditions change fast — always verify with the National Weather Service for your county.

    Current hotspots

    Western New York — Enhanced Risk (damaging wind primary)

    SPC’s 2000 UTC Day 1 outlook expanded the Enhanced Risk slightly east across western New York, with 45% wind probabilities. Storms are expected along and ahead of a cold front from southeast Lower Michigan into the lower Great Lakes, with 50+ kt of deep-layer shear supporting a mix of supercells and clusters. Damaging winds are the main threat. Large hail and a few tornadoes are also in the outlook, including some chance of a stronger tornado if a supercell mode holds this evening.

    Already reported:

    • Trees down in Oakfield, Elba, Batavia, Leicester, Livonia, and Wolcott, NY.
    • Several hundred power outages in and around Batavia from tree limbs and line damage.
    • Additional trees and wires down later in Wyoming County (Castile / Portageville).

    Montana / northern Rockies — Slight Risk (severe gusts)

    High-based storms moving northeast across Montana have already produced hurricane-force gusts. SPC flagged occasional 75+ mph gusts even with weaker instability.

    Measured gusts (preliminary LSRs):

    • 83 mph — Great Falls Airport (KGTF), Cascade County, MT
    • 80 mph — Warm Springs, Deer Lodge County, MT
    • 80 mph — Highwood Bench, Chouteau County, MT
    • 77 mph — south-southwest of Choteau, Teton County, MT
    • 74 mph — Bert Mooney Airport, Silver Bow County, MT
    • 73 mph — Helena and 11 W Helena, Lewis and Clark County, MT
    • 71 mph — Helena Airport and west of Bynum

    Great Lakes to Mid-Atlantic — wind, hail, and tree damage

    An earlier cluster with a well-established cold pool produced damaging winds across western and central Pennsylvania and continued southeast into Maryland, D.C., and northern Virginia. Behind that, a second round is the western New York / Lower Michigan threat.

    Notable hail:

    • 2.00″ hail — Birch Run, Saginaw County, MI (multiple spotter/public reports with photos)
    • 1.25″ hail — 3 E Meadville, Crawford County, PA
    • 1.00″ hail — north of Cochranton, Crawford County, PA

    Wind damage corridor (trees, wires, road closures): Warren, Forest, Crawford, Jefferson, Elk, Clearfield, Huntingdon, Blair, Perry, Juniata, Cumberland, York, and Lancaster counties in Pennsylvania; Baltimore, Frederick, Washington, Montgomery, and Caroline counties in Maryland; Loudoun, Alexandria, Rappahannock, Culpeper, King George, Orange, Madison, Clarke, Buckingham, and Dinwiddie counties in Virginia. One tree fell on a residence in Harmonsburg, Crawford County, PA. In Ceresco, Saunders County, NE, branches hit houses and windows were blown out of a business.

    Texas — isolated landspout

    A landspout was reported 3 ENE of Serenada in Williamson County, TX (north of Georgetown, between SH 195 and I-35), associated with a weak shower. Preliminary — not a confirmed tornado path.

    What this means for restoration operators

    • Saginaw County, MI (Birch Run): 2.00″ hail is hen-egg size — enough to puncture asphalt shingles, bruise commercial TPO/EPDM, and collapse rooftop HVAC condenser fins. Photo the roof and RTUs before the next rain cycle.
    • Western NY / Lower MI: Stage for wind, tree, and power-line losses plus possible hail. Commercial roofs and storefront glazing along the Enhanced Risk corridor are the first walk.
    • PA–MD–VA swath: This is a tree/wire/water day. Wind-driven rain through failed envelope, wet interiors, and delayed drying if power is out. Treat overland flash-flood water as Category 3 until you prove otherwise.
    • Montana (Great Falls / Helena / Choteau corridor): 70–83 mph gusts are hurricane-force. Expect loose membrane, HVAC displacement, metal cladding, and broken glass on commercial buildings even without large hail.
    Flooded residential basement with standing water and damaged belongings
    Wind-driven rain and tree damage produce interior water losses like this — saturated drywall, damaged contents, and mold risk inside 48 hours if extraction is delayed.

    Sources

    This is a public-data summary for restoration professionals’ situational awareness only. It is not an official forecast. Always verify with the National Weather Service, local NWS offices, and official watches/warnings. Preliminary storm reports can change. Do not make operational decisions solely on this brief.

    Related on Tygart Media: Aug 29 storm alerts · Starlink on a water job. Full Daily Storm Pulse archive lives on Restoration Intel — Storm Damage.