Tag: Nebraska storms

Storm Updates: Kansas Tornado Window, West Texas Wind Slight — Wednesday, September 30, 2026

Wednesday afternoon desk. The organized severe work is on the Plains, not the coasts. As of Wednesday, September 30, 2026, the Storm Prediction Center 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook still holds a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms across portions of the southern and central Plains. No convective watches are currently valid. Two mesoscale discussions are live with watches possible. The Weather Prediction Center still holds Moderate Risks of excessive rainfall across portions of the central and southern Plains and the Corn Belt.

These are county- and ZIP-scale thunderstorms and flash-flood corridors. No named tropical cyclone is threatening U.S. land this afternoon. Restoration exposure is wind-driven roof and tree work from southwest Oklahoma into west Texas tonight, a conditional brief-tornado window on the Kansas warm front this evening, and interior water where cells train on already-wet ground from the Red River Valley toward Omaha and Des Moines. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What is live this afternoon

SPC’s 1630 UTC outlook (issued 11:26 a.m. CDT, valid 1630 UTC Wednesday through 1200 UTC Thursday) keeps two Slight Risk areas: central and eastern Kansas into far southeast Nebraska, and southwest Oklahoma / northwest Texas through the Edwards Plateau. Combined Slight coverage is about 83,861 square miles and 1.63 million people, with Topeka, Abilene, Wichita Falls, Lawton, and San Angelo on the population list. A broader Marginal wraps San Antonio, Dallas, Austin, Fort Worth, and Oklahoma City. Forecasters Mosier and Chalmers: a few tornadoes and localized wind damage are possible across Kansas and possibly far southeast Nebraska this afternoon and evening. Severe wind gusts, some hail, and a brief tornado are also expected from west Texas into southwest Oklahoma this afternoon into tonight.

No Storm Prediction Center convective watches are currently valid. The watch page, updated 2000 UTC Wednesday, still lists Watch 674 as the most recently issued product. That watch is not in effect this afternoon. Two mesoscale discussions are the live signal instead.

Mesoscale Discussion 2337, issued 2:21 p.m. CDT for portions of central Kansas into extreme northern Oklahoma, is tagged Severe potential… Watch possible, with a 60 percent probability of watch issuance. SPC says a few of the stronger storms may produce brief tornadoes, and that a Tornado Watch will likely be needed at some point in the next few hours. Timing is the open question because storm evolution is expected to be slow.

Mesoscale Discussion 2338, issued 2:56 p.m. CDT for portions of western Texas, is tagged Severe potential… Watch possible, with a 40 percent probability of watch issuance. SPC expects at least a few severe gusts and a couple instances of hail if storms increase in coverage and intensity. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch may be needed. Peak wind in that discussion is 55–70 mph. Peak hail is up to 1.25 inches.

WPC’s Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 0800 UTC Wednesday, valid 12Z Wednesday–12Z Thursday) keeps Moderate Risk language on two corridors: the Front Range into the southern Plains, and the central Plains into the Corn Belt. HREF neighborhood probabilities for more than 3 inches remain 60–90 percent from the Lower Trans Pecos to the central Red River Valley. The Corn Belt footprint is still 2–4 inches, locally around 6 inches, from northern Kansas toward Omaha and Des Moines generally south of I-80.

Hotspot 1 — Central and eastern Kansas into far southeast Nebraska

This is the tornado-window corridor. SPC places the peak around 21Z to 00Z (4 p.m. to 7 p.m. CDT). Cloud cover is expected to linger, so most destabilization is from low-level moisture advection, not full heating. Low-70s dewpoints are forecast over much of central and eastern Kansas by late afternoon. RAP guidance in the 1630 UTC package shows 0–1 km storm-relative helicity of 150–200 m²/s². MD 2337 adds 200–300 m²/s² of 0–3 km SRH along the warm front and the Oklahoma–Kansas border, with backed surface flow. Tornadoes in this kind of tropical, poor-lapse-rate airmass are typically brief. SPC still treats a few longer-duration updrafts as possible.

Cities and counties to watch: Topeka under the Slight list; Wichita under the Marginal wrap; I-70 and Kansas River counties; the state-line counties toward Omaha. Today’s first LSR on the 12Z-to-12Z board is a storm-chaser video report 3 miles south-southwest of Ash Valley in Pawnee County, Kansas, at 2049 UTC (3:49 p.m. CDT). That is a live-cell report, not a damage survey.

Restoration read: tornado plus training rain. A brief tornado is a narrow swath — staff it as a local damage survey. The same warm front is a water job if cells repeat. Do not send one crew to a wind ticket and a flooded basement without checking which county has a warning now.

Hotspot 2 — Southwest Oklahoma, northwest Texas, Edwards Plateau

This remains the higher-confidence wind corridor. Low-70s dewpoints cover much of the southern Plains warm sector. Primary development is expected this evening along modest surface troughing south of the surface low moving into Kansas. An initially supercellular mode is possible from southwest Oklahoma into northwest Texas and the Edwards Plateau, where MLCAPE can reach near or above 1,500 J/kg. Front-parallel flow then favors a linear mode. Severe gusts are the most likely hazard. Isolated hail is more plausible across southwest Texas. A localized brief tornado threat can increase in the evening as effective storm-relative helicity rises.

MD 2338 is the afternoon trigger for western Texas. Surface temperatures there have reached the upper 80s to 90 F. Storms should start multicellular, then become linear as they overspread a dry boundary layer. Cities and counties: Lawton, Wichita Falls, Abilene, San Angelo, the Edwards Plateau counties under the Slight contour, and Midland on the Marginal fringe. An isolated severe threat could linger into parts of central Texas and Oklahoma overnight before buoyancy collapses east of the front.

Restoration read: wind first, water second. Stage tarps, generators, and tree crews before evening initiation, not after the first warning. If a line trains on already-wet ground, treat the same ZIP as a water job by morning.

Hotspot 3 — Southern Rockies, Front Range, and the Corn Belt flood overlay

WPC keeps a Moderate flood risk from the Sangre de Cristos and San Juan Range into the Front Range as northeasterly upslope persists on the northwest side of the surface low. Antecedent wet soils raise the flash-flood probability. Additional 2–4 inches, locally higher, remains the working range, with a second heavy period this evening as the surface low intensifies.

Farther northeast, the Corn Belt Moderate still sits on a southwest-to-northeast axis from northern Kansas through Omaha into Des Moines, generally south of I-80. Hourly rates of 1–2 inches in the better cores, with repeating action on the warm front. North of the warm front the rates drop. That is urban streets, low-water crossings, and small streams first — then finished basements if the same cell trains twice.

Just hit

Today’s 12Z-to-12Z LSR board had been empty until the Pawnee County, Kansas chaser report at 2049 UTC. That is the only official today-board entry as of this desk. Last night’s tickets still stand: a social-media tornado 3 miles south-southeast of Claude in Armstrong County, Texas, at 0012 UTC Tuesday evening; a tornado 7 miles west-northwest of Timbercreek Canyon in Randall County, Texas, at 0245 UTC; 67 mph at Roswell Air Center in Chaves County, New Mexico; 60 mph 2 miles northeast of Roswell; and 65 mph 6 miles west-northwest of Denver City in Yoakum County, Texas. Those are preliminary reports, not damage surveys.

No named tropical cyclone threatens U.S. land this afternoon. NHC is issuing advisories on Hurricane Rachel well south-southwest of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico, Tropical Storm Nolo several hundred miles west of Lihue, Hawaii, and Tropical Depression Nineteen-E over the western East Pacific. Hanna is a remnant low in the central subtropical Atlantic. None of those are a CONUS restoration staffing problem today.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS / WPC level	Status this afternoon
Central/eastern KS into SE NE	Brief tornadoes, localized wind, training rain	SPC Slight + MD 2337 (watch possible, 60%)	Peak 4–7 p.m. CDT; no watch yet
SW OK / NW TX / Edwards Plateau	Severe wind, isolated hail, brief tornado	SPC Slight + MD 2338 west TX (watch possible, 40%)	Evening initiation
Red River Valley / west-central TX	Flash flood, merging clusters	WPC Moderate	Late afternoon into Thursday morning
KS–Omaha–Des Moines (south of I-80)	Flash flood, 1–2 in/hr cores	WPC Moderate	Afternoon through overnight
Southern Rockies / Front Range	Upslope heavy rain, flash flood	WPC Moderate	Evening pulse still live
Pawnee County, KS	Live-cell chaser report	Today’s LSR board	2049 UTC / 3:49 p.m. CDT
TX Panhandle / Chaves County NM	Tornado and wind LSRs from Tuesday night	Yesterday’s Marginal	Just-hit / survey
Atlantic / East Pacific vs. U.S. mainland	No landfalling hurricane	Rachel / Nolo / Hanna offshore	Quiet on the mainland coast

What this means for restoration teams

A Slight Risk is not a watch and not a warning. MD 2337 and MD 2338 are the afternoon products that say a watch may still come. Wind at severe criteria is roof, siding, gutter, and tree-on-structure work. A brief tornado, if one occurs in Kansas or on the Edwards Plateau, is a narrow swath. Heavy rain on the two Moderate flood corridors is extraction the same night and a mold clock by Friday.

For teams in central Kansas, southwest Oklahoma, and northwest Texas: stage before the 21Z–00Z window, not after the first warning. Property owners should photograph damage in remaining daylight only if it is safe, call the carrier, and start extraction the same night if water is inside. Turn around, don’t drown on the Front Range and Corn Belt crossings.

What this is not

This is not a regional derecho and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. Rachel is off western Mexico. Nolo is west of Kauai. Hanna is a remnant low in the central Atlantic. The work today, if it verifies, will be scattered: a wind swath through a Texas or Oklahoma county, a brief tornado on the Kansas warm front, a flooded intersection where cells train on the Red River or south of I-80. That is the local-storm pattern this desk should staff.

Looking ahead

The next Day 1 outlook is scheduled by 2000 UTC. SPC Day 2 (1730 UTC package, valid 12Z Thursday–12Z Friday) drops to a Marginal over portions of Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas for isolated severe wind Thursday afternoon and evening. Watches, if they come tonight, will most likely fire on the Kansas warm front first, then western Texas if coverage increases. Watch the next Storm Tracker update rather than assuming this afternoon’s empty watch list is the last line of the day.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center Sep 30, 2026 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook; SPC Mesoscale Discussions 2337 and 2338; SPC current convective watches page (no watches valid as of 2000 UTC Wednesday); SPC local storm reports for 20260930 (Pawnee County, Kansas) and 20260929 (overnight Panhandle and New Mexico); Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook updated 0800 UTC Wednesday; National Hurricane Center public pages for Rachel, Nolo, Hanna, and Nineteen-E. Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watch, MD, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay.

Morning desk: Storm Updates: Southern Plains Slight Risk, Kansas Tornado Window — Wednesday, September 30, 2026 (Morning).

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

September 30, 2026

Storm Updates: High Plains Hail Marginal, Nor’easter Wind Fade — Sunday, September 27, 2026 (Morning)

This is a live Sunday morning snapshot of U.S. local-storm activity as of Sunday, September 27, 2026. Overnight into this morning, the organized severe desk stayed quiet. No Storm Prediction Center tornado or severe thunderstorm watches are valid. The last issued convective watch remains Watch 674, already expired. The 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook, issued 0730 AM CDT and valid 271300Z–281200Z, holds a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms for portions of the central and northern High Plains. Summary language from Norman: isolated thunderstorms capable of large hail will be possible across portions of western Nebraska and the Black Hills of South Dakota. No tornado or damaging-wind probability areas are forecast. Restoration exposure this morning is leftover Mid-Atlantic and southern New England wind from the fading nor’easter, isolated High Plains hail later today, and a Weather Prediction Center Slight excessive-rainfall overlay on parts of southern New England.

Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What is live this morning

No convective watches are current. The SPC watch page states no watches are valid. Today’s storm-report window that opened at 1200 UTC Sunday shows no tornado, hail, or wind reports yet. The overnight board from the Saturday convective day is thin and local: quarter-size hail near Lake Lawtonka in Comanche County, Oklahoma, at 0033 UTC, plus trees down about seven miles west of Central High and roadway damage about six miles north of Hulen in the same county just before 0000 UTC. That is yesterday’s western Oklahoma Marginal verifying as isolated cells, not a watch overlay that carried into Sunday.

The 1300 UTC Day 1 outlook draws a 5 percent hail contour over about 48,893 square miles and roughly 328,899 people. Larger centers inside the contour include Rapid City, Spearfish, Rapid Valley, and Sturgis in South Dakota, and Scottsbluff, Nebraska. A residual moist axis with 60s F surface dewpoints still reaches from the southern Plains into Nebraska and South Dakota. Forcing stays weak through the day, which should keep coverage isolated. Evening coverage may increase as a subtle vorticity maximum and a modest low-level jet arrive. Large hail is the named hazard with the strongest storms. SPC also notes scattered thunderstorms over north and central Texas late this afternoon and isolated to widely scattered storms from northern Utah into central Wyoming, with localized gusty winds possible but not enough confidence for a low-probability severe highlight.

The Weather Prediction Center short-range discussion issued 422 AM EDT Sunday keeps a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of southern New England on Sunday into Monday morning. The same discussion holds a Moderate Risk for Monday over parts of the Southwest, Great Basin, and central and southern Rockies — that is tomorrow’s water desk, not this morning’s. A strong nor’easter still drifts near the New Jersey coastline. WPC language: widespread minor to moderate coastal flooding is expected for at least one more high-tide cycle Sunday morning after significant coastal flooding Saturday. Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph remain possible Sunday morning from New Jersey to Long Island. NWS wind advisories were still live into noon EDT for New York City, Long Island, coastal and southeast Connecticut, the Hudson Valley, and the Berkshires. Gale Warnings remain on New England coastal waters. Dense fog was also in play early this morning over parts of south-central Nebraska and north-central Kansas until 11 AM CDT. A Flood Advisory covers pieces of Bourbon and Crawford Counties in southeastern Kansas into early afternoon.

Hotspot 1 — Western Nebraska and the Black Hills

This is the only categorical severe area on the Sunday Day 1 map. Isolated storms capable of large hail are the forecast, not a wind outbreak and not a tornado corridor. Heating on the western edge of the moist plume can build moderate buoyancy over western Nebraska even with some high cloud. Storm coverage stays limited until evening lift arrives.

Cities and counties to watch: Rapid City, Spearfish, Sturgis, and the Black Hills foothills in South Dakota; Scottsbluff and the Nebraska Panhandle. Restoration read: isolated hail dents and a few broken windows if a cell organizes, not a regional wind swath. Staff lightning and a tarp kit. Do not pre-position as if a Slight is coming.

Hotspot 2 — Mid-Atlantic and southern New England nor’easter fade

The live work here is leftover high wind, trees, wires, tidal water, and one more high-tide cycle — not an SPC convective watch. Saturday’s High Wind Warnings have largely rolled off into Wind Advisories and marine Gale Warnings. WPC is explicit that coastal and tidal flooding matter more than rainfall totals on the cold side of the low. Southern New England still sits under a Slight excessive-rainfall risk for localized urban and poor-drainage flooding as the rain slowly wanes.

Restoration read: this is the just-hit pile from Saturday night into Sunday morning. Check trees on service drops, wet basements, and coastal roads at high tide. Do not treat it as a new severe-thunderstorm outbreak. This is not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. Tropical Depression Fay is well west-southwest of the Azores. Hurricane Polo is a Baja California Sur forecast. Hurricane Nolo remains a Hawaii desk.

Hotspot 3 — North and central Texas, Utah–Wyoming scatter

SPC leaves these areas outside the Marginal contour. Scattered storms over north and central Texas late afternoon, plus isolated to widely scattered storms from northern Utah into central Wyoming, can still throw localized gusty winds. Coverage and magnitude were not enough for a 5 percent wind highlight on the 1300 UTC update. Treat local Severe Thunderstorm Warnings if they fire. Do not invent a watch.

Just hit

Sunday’s 1200 UTC storm-report window is empty as of this morning desk: no tornado, hail, or wind LSRs yet today. Overnight into early Sunday, the Saturday report day closed with isolated Comanche County, Oklahoma work — quarter hail northeast of Lake Lawtonka and trees plus roadway damage west of Central High and north of Hulen. That is the just-hit convective ticket. The larger just-hit desk is coastal wind and tidal water from New Jersey through southern New England after Saturday’s nor’easter blow.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS / WPC level	Status this morning
Western NE / Black Hills SD	Isolated large hail	SPC 1300 UTC Marginal	Afternoon into evening
NJ / NYC / Long Island / southern New England	Residual wind, tidal flood, urban rain	Wind advisories; WPC Slight rain	Fading through Sunday
Comanche County, OK	Trees, quarter hail	Saturday LSRs	Just hit overnight
North / central TX; northern UT–central WY	Localized gusty wind	General thunderstorms	Late day scatter
CONUS severe watches	None	No watches; last was 674	Quiet
SPC LSRs today (from 12Z Sun)	None yet	0 tornado / 0 hail / 0 wind	Quiet

What this means for restoration teams

Sunday morning is a quiet-pulse-plus-leftover desk. The convective piece is a small High Plains hail Marginal with no watch and an empty Sunday LSR board. Treat that as isolated cells later today, not a regional event. The live volume is already on the ground along the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England coast: trees, wires, and wet interiors from Saturday into this morning’s last high tide. Interior water still starts a 24–48 hour mold clock. Photograph in daylight if it is safe. Do not drive flooded coastal roads at high tide.

What this is not

This is not a regional derecho and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. SPC has one Marginal hail area and no Slight or higher. No convective watch is up. Today’s LSR board is empty. The nor’easter is a fading high-wind and coastal-flood event on the cold side of the low. That is the local-storm pattern this desk should staff.

Looking ahead

SPC Day 2 and Day 3 convective outlooks carry no severe thunderstorm areas. WPC lifts a Moderate excessive-rainfall risk Monday over parts of the Southwest, Great Basin, and central and southern Rockies, with a Slight over parts of the Upper Midwest Monday. Watch the afternoon Storm Tracker rather than assuming the High Plains Marginal is the last line of the week.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook for Sunday, September 27, 2026 (issued 0730 AM CDT); SPC current watch page (no watches valid; last issued Watch 674); SPC storm reports for 1200 UTC September 26 through 1159 UTC September 27 and the new Sunday window from 1200 UTC September 27; Weather Prediction Center Short Range Forecast Discussion issued 422 AM EDT Sunday; National Weather Service wind-advisory, gale-warning, dense-fog, and flood-advisory text; National Hurricane Center Tropical Weather Outlook (Fay well west-southwest of the Azores; no U.S. mainland tropical cyclone landfall).

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watch, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay. Prior desk: Saturday afternoon, September 26 storm updates.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

September 27, 2026

Storm Updates: New Mexico Flood Slight, Quiet Severe Pulse — Friday, September 25, 2026

This is a live Friday afternoon snapshot of U.S. local-storm activity as of Friday, September 25, 2026. The organized desk is still water on the southern High Plains, not a national wind outbreak. The Storm Prediction Center 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook, issued 0251 PM CDT and valid 252000Z–261200Z, carries no severe thunderstorm areas. Summary language from Norman: organized severe thunderstorms are not expected today. The 20Z update made no changes. Isolated thunderstorms were noted across western Oklahoma around 1945 UTC, but cloud cover continues to limit heating. The Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook still holds a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall across portions of the southern High Plains, with moisture lifting northeast toward the central Kansas–Nebraska border and the northern Nebraska–Iowa border tonight.

Restoration exposure this afternoon is water: leftover runoff from last night’s New Mexico–west Texas MCS, live flash-flood warnings on the Albuquerque desk, and isolated heavy cells if storms redevelop on already wet ground. Wind and hail remain a low-confidence scatter, not a watch overlay. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What is live this afternoon

No tornado or severe thunderstorm watches are current. The SPC watch page, updated 1804 UTC Friday, states no watches are valid. The last issued convective watch on the board is Watch 674, already expired. No mesoscale discussions are in effect as of 2010 UTC Friday. Yesterday evening’s 0100 UTC Day 1 outlook had carried a Marginal Risk over parts of the Texas Panhandle; that window closed overnight. Today’s packages dropped categorical severe probabilities entirely.

Water products are the live overlay. NWS Albuquerque issued a flash-flood warning at 135 PM MDT Friday for east-central Cibola County until 430 PM MDT, covering Laguna Pueblo, New Laguna, Mesita, Acoma Pueblo, Paraje, Seama, and Acomita, including Interstate 40 between mile markers 106 and 121. Radar indicated up to 1 inch already down with another half inch possible. A second Albuquerque warning at 220 PM MDT covers west-central Santa Fe County until 515 PM MDT. Midland/Odessa continues a Flood Watch through this evening for portions of southeast New Mexico — Central Lea, Eddy County Plains, Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County, Northern Lea — and southwest Texas including the Davis and Guadalupe Mountains, Marfa Plateau, Presidio Valley, and the Van Horn corridor. Albuquerque also continues a Flood Watch until midnight MDT for east-central and southeast New Mexico, including Curry, Roosevelt, Chaves, Quay, De Baca, eastern Lincoln, and the south-central mountains.

Hotspot 1 — Cibola and Santa Fe Counties, New Mexico

This is the live afternoon ticket. Albuquerque’s Cibola warning is radar-indicated heavy rain on already sensitive ground, with life-threatening flash-flood language on creeks, urban areas, and I-40. The Santa Fe County warning is the same pattern a county east: up to an inch already, more possible through mid-afternoon. These are not the overnight Eddy–Chaves–Otero warnings from the morning desk. Those expired. This is a new pulse on the west-central and north-central New Mexico side of the same moisture plume.

Restoration read: water first. Do not treat I-40 between Grants and Albuquerque as a clean haul if the Cibola warning is still live. Photograph high-water marks after the product expires. Extraction and drying on structures that took this afternoon’s pulse start the same 24–48 hour mold clock as last night’s Pecos Valley work. Turn around, don’t drown on pueblo and canyon crossings.

Hotspot 2 — Southeast New Mexico into West Texas (Flood Watch)

WPC keeps the Slight Risk from southeastern New Mexico to the southern Panhandle and south into parts of West Texas where 3-hour flash-flood guidance is under an inch. Midland’s Flood Watch through this evening names Artesia, Carlsbad, Hobbs, Lovington, Alpine, Marfa, Fort Davis, Van Horn, and Presidio. Guidance had morning storms diminishing as the shortwave lifted northeast, then allowed localized 1–2 inch amounts later in the day on wet soils. Gaines County, Texas, took a morning flash-flood warning from Midland at 734 AM CDT until 1030 AM CDT for Seminole and Seagraves; that product is expired and belongs in the just-hit column.

Restoration read: leftover water from Thursday night plus any new cells on the watch. Stage pumps where last night’s warnings sat — Eddy, Chaves, Otero, El Paso, Hudspeth — and keep an eye on Lea County and the Davis Mountains if afternoon storms fire. This is still not a wind event.

Hotspot 3 — Western Oklahoma scatter and the central Plains rain axis

SPC’s 20Z discussion notes isolated thunderstorm development across western Oklahoma as of 1945 UTC, with cloud cover still tempering surface heating. A stronger gust or two remains possible where a cell finds a pocket of better heating, but the overall severe risk is limited. That is why there is still no categorical severe area and no watch. Farther north, WPC notes that shortwave energy and tropical-origin moisture lifting out of the Southwest can support efficient rainfall tonight near the central Kansas–Nebraska border northeast toward the northern Nebraska–Iowa border, with some guidance showing more than 2 inches. Instability stays weak. Treat that as isolated runoff, not a Moderate flood upgrade.

Restoration read: western Oklahoma is lightning and a possible isolated gust. Kansas–Nebraska–Iowa is a Saturday-morning check on poor-drainage and low crossings if the overnight rain verifies, not a Friday afternoon extract pile.

Just hit

SPC today’s storm reports for the 1200 UTC September 25 through 1159 UTC September 26 window show no tornado reports, no hail reports, and no wind reports as of this afternoon desk. That is a Quiet Pulse on the severe board.

The work that already happened is water. Overnight flash-flood warnings from Midland, Albuquerque, and El Paso/Santa Teresa covered northwestern Eddy County, southwestern Chaves County, and central Otero County in New Mexico, plus east-central El Paso and west-central Hudspeth Counties in Texas, where 2 to 3 inches had already fallen before dawn. Those products expired this morning. Midland’s Gaines County warning this morning for Seminole and Seagraves also expired. Survey and extraction replace that overlay. Thursday’s 60 mph wind report at Memphis in Hall County, Texas, remains yesterday’s High Plains Marginal, not a new Friday LSR.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS / WPC level	Status this afternoon
Cibola / Santa Fe Counties, NM	Flash flood, I-40 runoff	NWS Albuquerque FFWs	Live until 430 / 515 PM MDT
SE NM / West Texas	Flash flood, leftover runoff	WPC Slight; Midland / ABQ Flood Watches	Watch through evening / midnight
Western OK cells	Isolated gust, lightning	SPC 2000 UTC: no categorical area	Scatter only
KS–NE–IA rain axis	Heavy rain tonight, isolated runoff	WPC discussion, no Moderate	Overnight check
CONUS severe watches	None	No watches; last was 674	Quiet
SPC LSRs today	None	0 tornado / 0 hail / 0 wind	Quiet

What this means for restoration teams

Friday afternoon is a Quiet Pulse on the severe side and a water desk in New Mexico. The live work is Cibola and Santa Fe Counties while those warnings are up, plus extraction on last night’s Eddy–Chaves–Otero–El Paso–Hudspeth pile. Interior water starts a 24–48 hour mold clock. Photograph in daylight if it is safe. Do not drive flooded crossings in the pueblos, the Sacramento Mountains, or the Pecos Valley.

Western Oklahoma and West Texas may still fire isolated strong cells before sunset. Staff that as local lightning and a possible isolated gust, not a regional wind swath. The Kansas–Nebraska rain axis is a Saturday morning check. Hurricane Nolo remains a Hawaii County flood-and-wind desk. Fay and Gonzalo in the Atlantic and Polo and Odalys in the eastern Pacific are not U.S. mainland landfalls this afternoon. Do not mix those crew maps with the New Mexico water pile.

What this is not

This is not a regional derecho and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. SPC has no Day 1 severe area. No convective watch is up. No mesoscale discussion is up. Today’s LSR board is empty. Thursday’s Moderate flood risk over southeast New Mexico remains stepped down to a Slight. The work this afternoon is leftover water plus two live Albuquerque flash-flood warnings. That is the local-storm pattern this desk should staff.

Looking ahead

The SPC Day 2 Convective Outlook, issued 1226 PM CDT Friday and valid 261200Z–271200Z Saturday, carries a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms late Saturday afternoon and evening from northwest Texas into central Kansas. Summary: isolated hail and strong outflow winds may accompany thunderstorms across portions of the central and southern Plains Saturday. Day 3 Sunday has no severe thunderstorm areas. WPC Day 2 steps the Northeast up to a Slight excessive-rainfall risk Saturday as a nor’easter deepens east of New Jersey, with 1–3 inches possible from the northern Mid-Atlantic into southern New England. That is Saturday’s overlay, not tonight’s New Mexico ticket.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook for Friday, September 25, 2026 (issued 0251 PM CDT); SPC current watch page (no watches valid as of 1804 UTC; last issued Watch 674); SPC mesoscale discussion page (none in effect as of 2010 UTC); SPC storm reports for 1200 UTC September 25 through 1159 UTC September 26 (no tornado, hail, or wind reports at this desk); Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook discussion; National Weather Service Albuquerque flash-flood warnings for Cibola County (135 PM MDT) and Santa Fe County (220 PM MDT); NWS Midland/Odessa Flood Watch and Gaines County flash-flood warning text; NWS Albuquerque Flood Watch; SPC Day 2 Convective Outlook issued 1226 PM CDT Friday.

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watch, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay. Morning desk: Friday morning, September 25 storm updates.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

September 25, 2026

Storm Updates: Idaho–Utah Marginal, Dakotas Flood Slight — Thursday, September 17, 2026

This is a live Thursday afternoon snapshot of U.S. local-storm activity as of Thursday, September 17, 2026. The Storm Prediction Center 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook holds a Marginal Risk of isolated severe wind gusts and hail this afternoon and evening over parts of Idaho and Utah and a small part of the central High Plains. No convective watches are valid. Mesoscale Discussion 2304 covers southern and central Idaho with a 20 percent chance of a watch. The Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook remains the organized ticket: Slight Risk over portions of the north-central Plains and Midwest and over the southwestern U.S. There is no named tropical cyclone in the Atlantic, eastern Pacific, or central Pacific.

These are county- and ZIP-scale thunderstorms and flash-flood pulses, not a mainland hurricane landfall. Restoration exposure this afternoon is isolated hail and wind if cells verify over the Snake River Plain and Wasatch Front, plus water from the Wyoming Front Range across South Dakota into southwest Minnesota and leftover Southwest terrain. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What is live this afternoon

SPC issued the 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook at 0247 PM CDT, valid 172000Z–181200Z. Forecasters Chalmers and Weinman made no changes from the midday package. Headline: thunderstorms with isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be possible over parts of the Intermountain West this afternoon and evening. A few strong to severe gusts may also occur across portions of the central High Plains. Risk-area population centers listed by SPC include Salt Lake City, West Valley City, Provo, West Jordan, and Orem. Categorical risk is Marginal only. No Slight Risk. No tornado probabilities in the 2000 UTC package. The Ohio Valley Marginal from Wednesday remains off the map.

Current convective watches: none. SPC watch page last updated 2059 UTC Thursday: no watches currently valid. Most recently issued watch remains Severe Thunderstorm Watch 669, already expired. Do not treat 669 as a live product.

MCD 2304, issued 0246 PM CDT and valid 1946Z–2215Z, covers parts of southern and central Idaho. Concerning: severe potential, watch unlikely. Probability of watch issuance: 20 percent. Summary: the risk of a few severe storms capable of producing large hail and severe wind gusts will increase through the remainder of the afternoon. Most probable peak wind gust 55–70 mph. Most probable peak hail size 1.00–1.75 inches. Offices tagged: Pocatello, Missoula, Boise. By late afternoon the live MD list showed no mesoscale discussions currently in effect; treat 2304 as the latest issued discussion, not a standing watch.

WPC Day 1 excessive-rainfall language valid 12Z Thursday through 12Z Friday still has two Slight Risk corridors. One is a high-end Slight across much of South Dakota, expanding toward Sioux Falls and into southwestern Minnesota and northwest Iowa, and west-southwest to the Cheyenne, Wyoming region east of the Laramie Range. The other holds Slight Risk over New Mexico and eastern Arizona into the San Juans and western Colorado, with Marginal coverage into the Salt Lake corridor and southeastern Idaho. Wednesday’s Moderate Risk over southern and central Arizona is aftermath, not a live upgrade.

Hotspot 1 — Southern and central Idaho into northern Utah

Morning water vapor showed an upper low over northern California with a band of strong flow aloft and embedded shortwave troughs across Nevada into Utah and Idaho. Strong heating was expected to aid scattered thunderstorms from southern Idaho into northern Utah by mid-afternoon. Sufficient vertical shear is present for rotating updrafts capable of large hail and gusty or damaging winds. Coverage is limited. SPC still expects one or two severe cells later today, mainly over the eastern Snake River Plain. The 18Z Boise sounding in MCD 2304 sampled steep deep-layer lapse rates and an elongating, mostly straight hodograph with about 30–40 kt of cloud-layer shear. Cells first. Small clusters later if outflow organizes.

Overnight LSRs already put quarter-size hail at Huntington in Emery County and at East Carbon and Sunnyside in Carbon County. That is the same Salt Lake City forecast office that owns this afternoon’s Utah cells.

Restoration read: hail first if discrete cells fire over the Snake River Plain, Boise, Pocatello, or the Wasatch Front. Wind second if storms cluster. Stage roof and auto-glass survey capacity before the first warning, not after. Flash-flood risk on this corridor is Marginal to isolated, not the organized Dakotas ticket.

Hotspot 2 — Dakotas water corridor and the High Plains wind overlay

Remnants of a weak tropical low tracked northeast across the Four Corners this morning. Ample moisture and weak ascent support considerable clouds and scattered thunderstorms over the Colorado mountains and southern Wyoming, spreading east into eastern Colorado and western Nebraska and Kansas. High-based convection poses a risk of locally damaging wind gusts. Daytime heating is the limiter because of lingering cloud cover. That is the SPC Marginal overlay: isolated gusts, not a Slight Risk wind event.

WPC is more organized here than SPC. A tropical-origin shortwave ejecting out of Arizona pivots through the central Rockies and into the northern Plains tonight. Precipitable-water anomalies approach the 95th–99th percentile from South Dakota into southern Minnesota by the end of the period. Discussion language includes 2–4 inches, locally higher, with HREF neighborhood probabilities of greater than 2 inches at 50–80 percent across a large High Plains swath. The centroid of greater-than-3-inch probabilities sits just east and southeast of Rapid City into Badlands National Park. The Slight Risk was expanded east toward Sioux Falls for the last 6–8 hours of the forecast.

Restoration read: water first from the Wyoming Front Range across western and central South Dakota into southwest Minnesota and northwest Iowa tonight into Friday morning. Wind second if High Plains clusters organize. Do not send one crew to both a Cheyenne gust and a Rapid City wash without checking which county has a warning now.

Hotspot 3 — Southwest terrain leftover plus Ohio just-hit

The shortwave that drove Wednesday’s Arizona Moderate flood risk is leaving. WPC still keeps a Slight Risk over New Mexico and eastern Arizona into the San Juans and Sacramentos. Guidance still prints 1–3 inches on the Sangre de Cristos, San Juans, and interior New Mexico terrain. Sacramento Mountains burn-scar sensitivity remains in the discussion as locally Moderate impacts embedded inside a higher-end Slight. That is runoff on ground that already took water Wednesday, not a new Moderate upgrade.

Ohio is off today’s SPC Marginal. It is the just-hit desk. Overnight LSRs from the 16/1200Z–17/1159Z window include multiple trees down in Versailles and Piqua, a snapped hardwood onto a home awning in Darke County, barn sheet-metal loss and a blown silo near West Alexandria in Preble County, and trees and wires southeast of Mansfield in Richland County. NWS Cleveland had severe thunderstorm warnings into mid-evening Wednesday for Richland, Ashland, Holmes, and Knox counties. Those products are expired. The trees are still on the lines.

Just hit

SPC preliminary storm reports for the current 17/1200Z–18/1159Z cycle show no tornado, hail, or wind reports as of this afternoon desk. That is expected. The Intermountain and High Plains threats are still an afternoon and evening problem.

The last 24-hour ticket pile sits on the prior cycle (16/1200Z–17/1159Z): no tornadoes. Hail: 1.00 inch at Huntington, Emery County, Utah; 1.00 inch at East Carbon and Sunnyside, Carbon County, Utah; 1.00 to 1.25 inches near Linn Creek, Camden County, Missouri, with two-foot-diameter limbs down. Wind: downed power lines in Mesa, Maricopa County, Arizona; trees in Versailles, Darke County, and Piqua and Lockington, Miami County, Ohio; a snapped pole and large limb near Broken Arrow, Tulsa County, Oklahoma; a power line and a condo-garage roof near Osage Beach and Linn Creek, Missouri; barn roofing and a grain silo near West Alexandria, Preble County, Ohio; trees and wires southeast of Mansfield.

This morning’s Storm Tracker already covered the same outlook family at 1300 UTC. This afternoon desk updates to the 2000 UTC package, adds MCD 2304, and confirms still-zero watches and still-zero LSRs on today’s cycle.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS / WPC level	Status this afternoon
Southern / central ID into northern UT	Isolated hail and severe gusts; possible small clusters	SPC Marginal; MCD 2304 watch unlikely	Live afternoon–evening cells
NE CO / western NE / High Plains	Isolated severe gusts	SPC Marginal	Late afternoon clusters if heating punches
WY Front Range / SD / SW MN / NW IA	Flash flood, 2–4″ swaths	WPC Slight (high-end over SD)	Today’s organized water ticket
NM / E AZ / San Juans / Sacramentos	Flash flood, burn-scar debris flow	WPC Slight; leftover from Wed Moderate	Diurnal terrain cells
Western / north-central OH	Trees, wires, barn and roof damage	LSRs overnight; warnings expired	Just-hit
Emery / Carbon UT; Camden MO	Quarter to half-dollar hail	LSRs overnight	Just-hit / same offices own today’s risk
Atlantic / Gulf vs. U.S. mainland	No named cyclone	NHC: no tropical cyclones	Quiet on the mainland coast

What this means for restoration teams

Isolated severe hail on the Snake River Plain and Wasatch Front is a roof and auto-glass survey ticket if cells verify over Boise, Pocatello, Salt Lake, or Provo. Isolated High Plains gusts are tree, siding, and gutter work in a thin corridor. The organized ticket today is still water from the Wyoming Front Range across South Dakota into southwest Minnesota and northwest Iowa tonight. Flash flooding on leftover Arizona–New Mexico terrain is wet drywall and a same-night extraction clock if water is inside a structure that already took rain Wednesday. Ohio trees-on-wires from last night are a separate staffing problem from this afternoon’s West.

For teams near the Intermountain Marginal: stage before mid-afternoon local. Property owners should photograph damage in daylight if it is safe, call the carrier, and start extraction the same night if water is inside. Turn around, don’t drown on High Plains and Southwest washes.

What this is not

This is not a Slight Risk severe day, not a live convective watch, and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. MCD 2304 is watch-unlikely, not a watch. NHC reports no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, eastern Pacific, or central Pacific as of this afternoon. The work, if it verifies, will be scattered: a hail swath through an Idaho or Utah county, a gust cluster on the High Plains, and heavier rain over South Dakota terrain tonight.

Looking ahead

SPC Day 2 (Friday, 1730 UTC package) holds Marginal Risk of isolated severe storms across parts of Idaho and Utah, Nebraska and Iowa, and the Piedmont of the Carolinas into north Georgia. Population centers listed on that outlook include Charlotte, Atlanta, Omaha, Lincoln, and Greensboro. WPC’s Day 1 water corridor over the Dakotas is the bridge into the Plains Marginal. The next Storm Tracker update should re-check the 0100 UTC Day 1 outlook and any new watches rather than assuming this afternoon’s Marginal stays the last word.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center Sep 17, 2026 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook (Chalmers/Weinman); Mesoscale Discussion 2304 (Weinman/Hart); current convective watches (none valid; last issued Watch 669); SPC preliminary storm reports for the 20260917 cycle and 20260916 cycle; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (Kleebauer); National Hurricane Center Tropical Weather Outlook, September 17, 2026; NWS warning text archive including Cleveland OH overnight products now expired.

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watch, MD, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay. Morning desk for this calendar day: Storm Updates: Intermountain West + High Plains Marginal, Dakotas Flood Slight — Thursday, September 17, 2026 (Morning).

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

September 17, 2026

Storm Updates: Kansas–Missouri Flood Moderate, Plains–Midwest Marginal — Tuesday, September 15, 2026

This is a live Tuesday afternoon snapshot of local storm-type events across the United States as of Tuesday, September 15, 2026. The Storm Prediction Center 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook keeps a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms from the south-central Plains into parts of the Midwest. No convective watches are in effect. The organized story this afternoon is water: the Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook holds a Moderate Risk from northeastern Kansas into northwest Missouri, with a high-end Slight Risk wrapping the Kansas City metro and I-70 corridor.

These are county- and ZIP-scale thunderstorms, not a mainland hurricane landfall. Restoration exposure tonight is flash-flood water first, then isolated wind-driven roof and tree work where the front fires cells. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What is live this afternoon

SPC issued the 2000 UTC Day 1 outlook at 2:55 p.m. CDT Tuesday, September 15, 2026, valid through 7:00 a.m. CDT Wednesday. The categorical call is Marginal. Population centers listed in the risk area include Indianapolis, Kansas City, Wichita, St. Louis, and Toledo. Summary language: strong to locally severe thunderstorms may occur from the south-central Plains into parts of the Midwest this afternoon and evening, with at least isolated damaging wind gusts possible. SPC explicitly opted against a categorical upgrade. As of the SPC watches page update Tuesday afternoon, no watches are currently valid. The most recently issued watch was Tornado Watch 669 on Monday.

Mesoscale Discussion 2300, issued 1:59 p.m. CDT, covered the Texas Panhandle into central Kansas. Watch issuance probability was 20 percent. Language: thunderstorm coverage increasing; sporadic strong gusts, with a locally greater chance of 50–65 mph from northwest Oklahoma into south-central and east-central Kansas. Most probable peak wind up to 60 mph; hail up to 1.25 inches. A watch was not anticipated. By late afternoon the current-MCD page showed no mesoscale discussions in effect.

WPC’s Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, updated 1556 UTC Tuesday and valid 16 UTC Tuesday through 12 UTC Wednesday, is the higher-confidence overlay. Moderate Risk covers portions of northeastern Kansas into northwest Missouri and clips far southeast Nebraska along the Missouri River. Guidance supports 2–3 inch areal averages and locally 3–5 inches from just north of Topeka toward St. Joseph. Flash-flood guidance is already low after morning rain. A high-end Slight Risk surrounds that core, including the Kansas City metro and I-70. A separate Slight Risk remains over eastern Arizona and western New Mexico on monsoon-style cells.

National Hurricane Center: no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic. Tropical Depression Fifteen-E is weakening well out in the eastern Pacific (about 15.7°N, 125.0°W, 30 mph). Post-tropical Norbert is a remnant low far from U.S. land. Neither threatens the U.S. mainland this afternoon.

Hotspot 1 — Northeast Kansas into northwest Missouri

This is the live flood desk. WPC broadened the Moderate Risk on the 16Z update to match an uptick in amounts and coverage near the Kansas–Nebraska–northwest Missouri juncture. Cold front slides southeast; best heavy-rain window is late afternoon through overnight as the low-level jet injects moisture along a boundary-parallel flow. Neighborhood probabilities for greater than 1 inch per hour have run 40–70 percent for several hours in the core.

Cities and counties to watch: Topeka and northeastern Kansas counties north of I-70; St. Joseph and neighboring northwest Missouri counties; far southeast Nebraska along the Missouri River; the Kansas City metro on the high-end Slight, not inside the Moderate core but close enough that a southward shift matters.

Restoration read: water first. Stage extractors and drying kits for basements, slab leaks, and low-water crossings that fail after dark. Morning rain already lowered flash-flood guidance. Photograph interiors only if it is safe. Do not treat Kansas City the same as St. Joseph without checking which county has a warning now.

Hotspot 2 — South-central Kansas, northern Missouri, and the cold-front wind line

SPC’s 20Z update said locally greater potential for a couple of damaging or severe wind gusts may exist across south-central Kansas and northern Missouri where guidance shows greater storm coverage on the cold front. Enhanced deep-layer shear is displaced north of the boundary; better thermodynamics sit farther south. That split is why the outlook stayed Marginal. Earlier MCD 2300 language pointed at northwest Oklahoma into south-central and east-central Kansas for 50–65 mph gusts if cells organize.

Cities and counties to watch: Wichita and south-central Kansas; northwest Oklahoma; northern Missouri counties along and north of the front; scattered cells from the Texas Panhandle east-northeast toward Illinois as convective temperatures are reached.

Restoration read: isolated wind, not a line you staff like a Slight-plus-watch night. Tarps and tree crews if a Severe Thunderstorm Warning verifies. Hail is secondary and limited by warm temperatures aloft.

Hotspot 3 — Four Corners / Southwest rain and leftover Plains wind tickets

Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms had formed across the Four Corners by about 1930 UTC. SPC notes weak buoyancy in a deep, well-mixed boundary layer — enough for an isolated strong to perhaps severe cell, not a concentrated severe area. WPC keeps a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over eastern Arizona and the western half of New Mexico, with locally 2–3 inches in the hardest terrain.

Yesterday’s organized wind corridor is already tickets. SPC storm reports for the 1200 UTC September 14–15 window include measured gusts of 87 mph near Guide Rock, Nebraska; 83 mph near Smith Center, Kansas; 77 mph near Amy, Kansas; 76 mph near Beatrice, Nebraska; 75 mph near Elmwood, Nebraska; plus trees and power lines in Cass and Lancaster Counties, Nebraska, Clarinda and Ames, Iowa, and other High Plains points. Today’s 1200 UTC-forward LSR page still showed no tornado, hail, or wind reports as of this afternoon scan. That can change after dark.

Restoration read: Southwest is flash-flood and outflow in terrain. Nebraska–Kansas–Iowa wind from Monday night is roof, siding, and tree-on-drop work already on the books.

Just hit

Monday evening’s Tornado Watch 669 (western into central Iowa, far northwest Missouri, eastern Nebraska, effective 4:50 p.m. until midnight CDT Monday) is closed. The gust and tree reports listed above are that corridor. Iowa river and urban water from the last two days can still be in the channel even if today’s new Moderate Risk sits farther southwest. Today’s new work, if it verifies, is flash flooding on the Kansas–Missouri Moderate Risk plus isolated wind along the front. No new U.S. mainland tropical landfall.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS level	Status this afternoon
NE Kansas / NW Missouri / SE Nebraska	Flash flood, training heavy rain	WPC Moderate excessive rainfall	Live flood overlay; evening peak
Kansas City / I-70 corridor	Heavy rain, urban flooding	WPC high-end Slight	Watch the southward shift
South-central KS / N Missouri / NW OK	Isolated damaging wind	SPC Marginal; MCD 2300 watch unlikely	No watch; scattered cells
Plains–Midwest Marginal envelope	Isolated wind, lightning	SPC Marginal (~166,470 sq mi)	Disorganized vs Monday night
Eastern AZ / western NM	Flash flood, strong outflow	WPC Slight	Afternoon–overnight terrain cells
NE / KS / IA just-hit wind	Roof, trees, service drops	Monday Watch 669 closed	Aftermath tickets
Atlantic / Gulf vs. U.S. mainland	No landfalling tropical cyclone	NHC quiet on the mainland	Quiet

What this means for restoration teams

Water on a Moderate Risk with already-wet ground is wet drywall and a 24–48 hour mold clock, plus vehicles in flooded crossings. Isolated 50–65 mph gusts are roof, siding, gutter, and tree-on-structure work in a single county, not a regional wind event. Monday night’s 70–87 mph measured gusts in southern Nebraska and north-central Kansas are the jobs already called in.

For teams near Topeka, St. Joseph, and Kansas City: stage extraction before the overnight training window, not after the first flooded intersection. Property owners should photograph damage if it is safe, call the carrier, and start extraction the same night if water is inside. Turn around, don’t drown.

What this is not

This is not a regional derecho and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. SPC did not upgrade to Slight. No convective watch is out this afternoon. Tropical Depression Fifteen-E and remnant Norbert are Pacific and offshore. The work tonight, if it comes, will be scattered: a flooded county in northeast Kansas or northwest Missouri, an isolated wind swath on the front, leftover tree jobs from Monday night. That is the local-storm pattern this desk should staff.

Looking ahead

SPC Day 2 remains generally quieter on organized severe over the central United States. A Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms is flagged Wednesday morning across the Great Salt Lake / Salt Lake City vicinity. Along the remnant front from the Ohio Valley into the lower Missouri Valley, scattered strong storms are possible Wednesday afternoon in weak shear, without a 5 percent severe-wind area on the 0600 UTC Day 2 package. Day 3 language available this afternoon showed no severe thunderstorms. Watch the next Storm Tracker update rather than assuming tonight’s flood core is the last line of the week.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources dated Tuesday, September 15, 2026: NOAA Storm Prediction Center 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook (issued 2:55 p.m. CDT); SPC Current Watches page (no watches valid; last watch 669); Mesoscale Discussion 2300; SPC storm reports for 20260914 and 20260915; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook updated 1556 UTC; National Hurricane Center public page as of 21:06 UTC. Morning desk on the same calendar day: Storm Updates, Tuesday morning, September 15, 2026.

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watches, MCDs, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

September 15, 2026

Storm Updates: Eastern Nebraska–Iowa Slight Risk, Watch 668 Kansas–Nebraska, Iowa Flood Moderate — Monday, September 14, 2026

This is a live Monday afternoon snapshot of local storm-type events across the United States as of Monday, September 14, 2026. The Storm Prediction Center 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook holds a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms across northern Kansas and southern and eastern Nebraska into western and central Iowa. Severe Thunderstorm Watch 668, issued at 3:45 p.m. CDT, covers western and northern Kansas and south-central Nebraska until 10:00 p.m. CDT. The Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, valid 12 UTC Monday through 12 UTC Tuesday, keeps a Moderate Risk over portions of central and southwestern Iowa.

These are county-scale thunderstorms and flash-flood pulses, not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. Restoration exposure tonight is wind-driven roof and tree work in the watch, isolated hail, a conditional tornado in the eastern Nebraska–western Iowa corridor if a surface-based supercell holds, and interior water where Iowa cells train. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What is live this afternoon

Watch 668 is the organized wind desk. SPC issued it at 3:45 p.m. CDT Monday, September 14, 2026, for portions of western and northern Kansas and south-central Nebraska, effective until 10:00 p.m. CDT. Primary threat language is scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80 mph, plus isolated large hail to 1.5 inches. High-based storms are expected to continue in a hot, well-mixed environment and spread northeast near a pre-frontal trough.

The 2000 UTC Day 1 outlook, issued 3:00 p.m. CDT by Karstens and Wendt, did not change the categorical Slight Risk. Summary language: scattered strong to severe thunderstorms should occur across parts of eastern Nebraska into western and central Iowa this afternoon and evening. Large hail, severe wind gusts, and tornadoes all appear possible. Severe thunderstorm winds will also be possible across northern and western Kansas. An 18z Omaha sounding showed about 2,232 J/kg MUCAPE as destablization spread north into central and eastern Nebraska. SPC still expects an elongated area of convection from north-central Kansas into south-central and eastern Nebraska and west-central Iowa, favoring supercells early, then a quick transition to clusters and line segments. Exact initiation remains uncertain in recent HRRR and RRFS runs. No SPC mesoscale discussion was in effect as of mid-afternoon UTC; Watch 668 is the current watch product.

WPC’s Day 1 excessive-rainfall discussion, issued 3:40 a.m. EDT Monday, September 14, 2026, maintains a Moderate Risk over portions of central and southwestern Iowa, coordinated with the Des Moines forecast office. HREF blended-mean QPF of 3–5 inches is cited near Des Moines and points south and southwest, with neighborhood probabilities of 60–80 percent for more than 3 inches and 3-hour flash-flood-guidance exceedance probabilities of 50–70 percent. A broad Slight Risk still covers much of the Midwest from the Door Peninsula through eastern Nebraska, plus a separate Slight Risk over the Southwest west of the I-25 corridor.

Hotspot 1 — Eastern Nebraska into western and central Iowa

This is the Slight Risk core. SPC places 5 percent tornado probabilities over parts of eastern Nebraska near Omaha, Lincoln, Council Bluffs, Bellevue, and Fremont, with 2 percent tornado probabilities extending toward Des Moines, Sioux City, Ames, West Des Moines, and Ankeny. Fifteen-percent wind and hail contours overlap the Omaha–Lincoln–Council Bluffs corridor. A 40–50 kt nocturnal low-level jet is forecast to increase effective storm-relative helicity this evening. SPC notes lingering low-level inhibition on RAP soundings and says it remains unclear whether convection will fully tap that shear. A sustained surface-based supercell in that environment would conditionally be capable of a strong tornado. Weak instability farther east in eastern Iowa should limit the severe risk deeper into the night.

Cities and counties to watch: Omaha, Lincoln, Bellevue, Fremont, and Council Bluffs; Sioux City, Fort Dodge, Ames, Des Moines, West Des Moines, and Ankeny; counties along and just ahead of the cold front from southeast Nebraska into west-central Iowa.

Restoration read: wind and hail first if supercells hold, then water if the same cells train on the WPC Moderate footprint. Stage tarps, generators, and extraction pumps before dark. Treat a tornado warning as a narrow local survey, not a regional event.

Hotspot 2 — Watch 668: western and northern Kansas, south-central Nebraska

The watch box runs roughly 45 miles north and south of a line from 145 miles southwest of Hill City, Kansas, to 50 miles east of Hastings, Nebraska. That is high-based, mixed-layer convection along the pre-frontal trough, not the same supercell corridor as Omaha. Primary threats are damaging wind, isolated 80 mph gusts, and hail to about 1.5 inches through 10:00 p.m. CDT.

Cities and counties to watch: Hill City, Hays, and northern Kansas counties in the watch outline; Hastings, Grand Island, and south-central Nebraska counties in and near the box. Confirm the county list on the Watch 668 outline update at SPC before you pre-position.

Restoration read: dry-microburst and outflow wind on roofs, siding, and center-pivot country. Photograph in remaining daylight only if it is safe. Hail claims will be isolated, not a swath unless a cell stays surface-based longer than expected.

Hotspot 3 — Central and southwestern Iowa flood Moderate, plus Southwest rain

The flood desk is Iowa. WPC introduced a small Moderate Risk for this Day 1 period because CAM guidance clustered 3–6 inch totals south of I-80, with urban streets and low-water crossings the first failures. A broader Slight Risk still covers eastern Nebraska through much of the Midwest. Expectation is scattered flash flooding tonight into early Tuesday morning.

The Southwest Slight Risk covers eastern Arizona, much of New Mexico west of I-25, and southwestern Colorado. PWATs are cited near the 95th–99th percentile. That is monsoon-style heavy rain on complex terrain and remnant burn scars, plus strong outflow, not the Plains watch.

Restoration read: Iowa is water and a 24–48 hour mold clock if 3-inch cores verify in town. The Southwest is localized washouts and urban flooding, not a CAT roster.

Just hit

SPC storm reports for the 12 UTC Monday, September 14, 2026 through 12 UTC Tuesday window showed no tornado, hail, or wind LSRs at the time of this afternoon desk. That is a quiet start to the convective day, not a forecast of a quiet evening. Last night’s 12 UTC Sunday–Monday window still holds the tickets already on the board: tree and wire work across Ohio, Pennsylvania, New York, and West Virginia from Sunday’s upper Ohio Valley–Northeast line; a roof peeled in Fox Township, Carroll County, Ohio; microburst-style trees and minor roof damage near Cloverport, Hardeman County, Tennessee; 1.00-inch hail near Sterling, Johnson County, Nebraska, and in Cascade and Judith Basin counties, Montana; a 61 mph gust near Patagonia, Arizona.

Sunday’s organized wind corridor is yesterday. Today’s new work, if it verifies, is Watch 668 and the eastern Nebraska–Iowa Slight Risk plus Iowa flash flooding.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS level	Status this afternoon
Eastern NE / western–central IA	Hail, damaging wind, conditional tornado	SPC Slight (2000 UTC)	Live Slight; initiation still uncertain
Western / northern KS, south-central NE	Damaging wind to 80 mph, hail to 1.5 in	Watch 668 to 10 p.m. CDT	Live watch
Central / southwestern Iowa	Flash flood, 3–6 in cores possible	WPC Moderate excessive rainfall	Tonight into Tuesday morning
Midwest Slight (Door Peninsula to eastern NE)	Scattered flash flood	WPC Slight	Overnight
E AZ / NM west of I-25 / SW CO	Heavy rain, outflow, burn-scar flood	WPC Slight	Afternoon–evening cells
Eastern North Carolina	Isolated gusty wind, small hail	Local / no categorical severe area	Isolated
Atlantic / Gulf vs. U.S. mainland	No landfalling tropical cyclone	NHC: no Atlantic TCs	Quiet on the mainland coast

What this means for restoration teams

Watch 668 wind at 65–80 mph is roof, siding, gutter, and tree-on-structure work in Kansas and south-central Nebraska. The Slight Risk east of that box is the same plus a conditional tornado and large hail if a supercell holds from Lincoln–Omaha into western Iowa. Iowa’s Moderate flood risk is wet drywall and a same-night extraction clock if the 3-inch HREF signal verifies south of I-80. Do not send one crew to both the watch box and Des Moines without checking which county has a warning now.

For teams in or near Watch 668: stage before sunset, not after the first warning. Property owners should photograph damage in daylight if it is safe, call the carrier, and start extraction the same night if water is inside.

What this is not

This is not a regional derecho and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. National Hurricane Center products as of Monday afternoon, September 14, 2026, show no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic. Tropical Storm Norbert is in the east-central Pacific about 1,125 miles east of Hilo, Hawaii, with 40 mph winds and a weakening trend. Tropical Depression Fifteen-E is about 785 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Neither threatens U.S. mainland land. The work tonight, if it comes, will be scattered: a wind swath in the Kansas–Nebraska watch, a hail or tornado report in the eastern Nebraska Slight Risk, flooded intersections south of I-80 in Iowa.

Looking ahead

The SPC Day 2 Convective Outlook issued 12:14 p.m. CDT Monday, September 14, 2026 (valid 12 UTC Tuesday through 12 UTC Wednesday) is a Marginal Risk in a corridor from Kansas into western Ohio. Summary language: scattered strong thunderstorms may occur from the Great Lakes southwestward through the lower Missouri Valley Tuesday afternoon and evening, with at least isolated damaging wind gusts possible. Shear is forecast to be weak. Storms should be primarily short-lived, with a few clusters near the front. Watch the next Storm Tracker update rather than assuming Watch 668 is the last line of the week.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources dated Monday, September 14, 2026: NOAA Storm Prediction Center 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook; Severe Thunderstorm Watch 668; SPC current watches and today’s LSR page (no reports in the 12 UTC Monday window at desk time); Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook updated 0733 UTC; National Hurricane Center Atlantic and East Pacific public pages. Morning desk on the same calendar day: Storm Updates: Eastern Nebraska–Iowa Slight Risk, Iowa Flood Moderate — Monday, September 14, 2026 (Morning).

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watch, and LSRs, Watch 668, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

September 14, 2026