Tag: Oklahoma storms

Storm Updates: Kansas Flash Flood Emergency, Texas Water — Thursday, October 1, 2026

This is a live Thursday afternoon snapshot for October 1, 2026. The organized severe window is small. The Storm Prediction Center 2000 UTC Day 1 convective outlook, updated 2:49 p.m. CDT, holds a Marginal Risk only across parts of southern Kansas and northwest Oklahoma — about 16,457 square miles and roughly 121,676 people, with Liberal, Kansas, and Woodward, Oklahoma, named in the risk table. No severe thunderstorm watch number is attached to that outlook. The live ticket is water. The National Weather Service in Dodge City issued a Flash Flood Emergency at 2:32 p.m. CDT for Dodge City and central Ford County, tagged catastrophic damage threat, after 3 to 6 inches of rain with another 3 to 5 inches possible. Restoration exposure this afternoon is interior water, saturated streets, and a short gusty-wind tail on the High Plains — not a hail swath and not a tornado outbreak.

These are county-scale thunderstorms and training rain, not a U.S. landfalling hurricane. Hurricane Rachel is in the eastern Pacific, south of Baja California Sur, with no coastal watches or warnings in effect on the 2 a.m. MST advisory and a track taking the center away from mainland Mexico. The Atlantic basin has no tropical cyclones this afternoon. Conditions change fast. Verify the county warning at weather.gov before a crew rolls.

What is live this afternoon

SPC’s Day 1 update valid from 2000 UTC Thursday through 1200 UTC Friday puts a 5 percent wind probability and a 2 percent tornado probability on that southern Kansas and northwest Oklahoma Marginal. No hail risk area is drawn. Mesoscale Discussion 2345, issued 1:32 p.m. CDT, covers southwestern Kansas into far northwestern Oklahoma and rates watch issuance at 5 percent. The discussion notes several storms undercut by the front produced 40 to 50 knot gusts from Hamilton to Finney counties, and that a brief tornado is most plausible in the warm sector along the Kansas–Oklahoma border — too localized, in SPC’s words, to warrant a watch. Filtered storm reports from 1200 UTC today show no tornado reports and no hail reports. Two wind reports landed near Garden City: 58 mph and 59 mph, 3 miles northwest of Pierceville in Finney County, from the Garden City ASOS at 12:54 p.m. and 1:02 p.m. CDT.

The Weather Prediction Center Day 1 excessive-rainfall point file issued 3:26 p.m. EDT, valid 1927 UTC Thursday through 12 UTC Friday, keeps a Moderate Risk of rainfall exceeding flash-flood guidance on a swath the point string ties through southwest and north Texas — Uvalde, Fort Worth Spinks, McKinney, Paris — and east toward the southern Appalachians near Morristown, Tennessee. A Slight Risk covers a broader corridor from the central Plains, including Hill City and Manhattan, Kansas, Falls City, Nebraska, and Lamoni and Iowa City, Iowa, into the Midwest fringe. A separate Marginal pocket sits over South Florida. The overnight Moderate discussion that was valid only through 12 UTC Thursday has expired; the afternoon product is the one above, and the warnings below are what is actually in effect.

Hotspot 1 — Dodge City and southwest to central Kansas

This is the live emergency. NWS Dodge City’s 2:32 p.m. CDT Flash Flood Warning for central Ford County runs until 5:30 p.m. CDT and includes the Flash Flood Emergency language for Dodge City, Ford, Fort Dodge, and Wright. Source is emergency management. Damage threat is catastrophic. A separate Dodge City warning covers southwestern Gray, southern Haskell, northwestern Meade, and northeastern Seward counties until 6:00 p.m. CDT, including Sublette and Copeland, after 1 to 3 inches with another half inch to an inch possible. Farther east, NWS Wichita has a Flash Flood Warning until 8:00 p.m. CDT for northeastern McPherson and northwestern Marion counties, including Canton, Lehigh, and Roxbury, with up to 3 inches already down and another 3 inches possible; damage threat considerable. NWS Topeka has a warning until 7:00 p.m. CDT for Geary and northwestern Morris counties after 3 to 5 inches, including Junction City and Grandview Plaza and Interstate 70 between mile markers 291 and 302 and 310 and 315. An earlier Topeka statement kept flooding in play for Manhattan, Wamego, and the Milford and Tuttle Creek lake areas.

Restoration read: this is a water ticket already open, not a forecast. Extraction, contents, and a mold clock start where water entered finished space. Do not route a crew across a closed low-water crossing to reach the loss. Wind is secondary here — the Garden City gusts are a roof-and-tree check, not the headline.

Hotspot 2 — San Antonio metro and northeast Texas

NWS Austin/San Antonio kept a Flash Flood Warning in effect until 7:00 p.m. CDT for northern Atascosa, Bexar, and western Wilson counties. At 3:23 p.m. CDT, emergency management reported flash flooding with numerous low-water crossings closed. Leon and Olmos creeks had responded. One to 4 inches had fallen, with up to another inch possible. Damage threat is considerable. Locations in the warning text include San Antonio, Schertz, Converse, Universal City, Live Oak, Pleasanton, Floresville, Helotes, and Randolph AFB. NWS Shreveport issued a Flash Flood Warning at 3:23 p.m. CDT until 6:30 p.m. CDT for northwestern Cherokee and central Smith counties, including Tyler, Jacksonville, Whitehouse, and Lindale, with 1 to 2 inches down and rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour expected.

SPC’s 2000 UTC update also notes convective coverage increasing over south-central and south Texas in hot, humid air. A localized strong gust is possible with the strongest downdrafts. Poor mid-level lapse rates and weakening shear keep that below a broader severe risk. Restoration read: San Antonio is observed water and closed crossings. Tyler is a radar-indicated flood warning with a short fuse. Treat both as urban-drainage and creek jobs, not as a severe-wind corridor.

Hotspot 3 — Southern Kansas and northwest Oklahoma Marginal

The only categorical severe area on the afternoon Day 1 outlook is the trimmed Marginal from southern Kansas into northwest Oklahoma, centered on Liberal and Woodward. The 11:28 a.m. CDT discussion, still carried as the previous discussion on the 2000 UTC product, describes a weak surface low over northwest Oklahoma and the northeast Texas Panhandle, a front northeast across Kansas, and a Pacific cold front south across the southern Plains. Cool temperatures aloft, around minus 10 to minus 11 C at 500 mb, can support small hail, strong to locally severe winds, and perhaps a brief tornado until the cold front undercuts the storms by late afternoon or early evening. SPC trimmed the northwestern edge of the Marginal where severe probabilities dropped behind ongoing convection.

A low-probability isolated storm is also noted along the surface front in northeastern Missouri and western Illinois later this afternoon or evening. Poor lapse rates and limited buoyancy keep severity muted if anything develops. Restoration read: stage a small wind-and-tree check for Liberal, Woodward, and the Kansas–Oklahoma border counties. Do not staff it like a watch.

Just hit

The overnight story is already a ticket, not a new outlook. The 0100 UTC Day 1 outlook from Wednesday evening had carried a Slight Risk from Texas into southwest Oklahoma and over north-central Kansas, with a tornado window noted for the next hour or two mainly in north-central and northeast Kansas. Today’s 12Z-onward SPC filtered page does not list a tornado or hail report. What verified into this afternoon is rain: Dodge City’s 3 to 6 inches, Junction City’s 3 to 5 inches, and San Antonio’s closed crossings. The morning Storm Tracker desk is the prior URL for that overnight close-out.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS level	Status this afternoon
Dodge City / Ford County, KS	Life-threatening flash flood, 3–6 in already	Flash Flood Emergency, catastrophic	Live until 5:30 p.m. CDT
Junction City, Manhattan, McPherson–Marion, KS	Flash flood, training rain, I-70	Flash Flood Warnings	Live into evening
San Antonio / Bexar, Atascosa, Wilson	Observed flooding, closed crossings	Flash Flood Warning, considerable	Live until 7 p.m. CDT
Tyler / Smith and Cherokee counties, TX	Heavy rain, urban drainage	Flash Flood Warning	Live until 6:30 p.m. CDT
Southern KS / northwest OK	Gusty wind, brief tornado possible	SPC Marginal; MD 2345, watch unlikely	No watch number
Atlantic / U.S. mainland tropics	No landfalling cyclone	NHC: no Atlantic cyclones	Quiet on the U.S. coast

What this means for restoration teams

Ford County is the priority desk. A catastrophic Flash Flood Emergency means finished-floor water, contents, and electrical in low structures are already in play where the water reached them. Photograph only from safe ground. The San Antonio warning is the second water desk: crossings are closed, so access is the constraint, not the estimate. Tyler is a shorter fuse on the same rain axis. The Marginal in Liberal and Woodward is a gust check — the only filtered wind reports so far are the 58 and 59 mph Garden City readings. A 60 mph peak is the most probable gust in MD 2345’s language, which is roof edge, fascia, and tree-on-structure work if it verifies, not a regional tarp campaign.

Do not send the same crew from Dodge City to San Antonio. They are separate warning offices and separate hydrology. Kansas water is High Plains urban and small-stream flooding under a slow upper low. San Antonio water is creek response in Bexar County with emergency-management confirmation.

What this is not

This is not a derecho, not a tornado outbreak, and not a U.S. hurricane landfall. SPC drew no hail risk area on the 2000 UTC outlook. No severe thunderstorm watch is in effect on that product. Rachel is a Pacific hurricane south of Baja with no U.S. coastal warning. Tropical Storm Nolo is in the central Pacific and is not a mainland landfall. The work this afternoon, where it is already reported, is floodwater in Ford County, Geary County, the San Antonio metro, and Smith County.

Looking ahead

SPC’s Day 2 convective outlook, issued 11:54 a.m. CDT and valid Friday into Friday night, forecasts no severe thunderstorm areas. A cold front is expected to reach the southern Mid-Atlantic, the Tennessee Valley, and the Texas coast by 12 UTC Saturday, with a broken band of showers and storms along it and limited destabilization where morning rain lingers. The flood story can outlast the severe story. Friday’s desk is leftover high water in Kansas and Texas, not a new Slight Risk.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources, all dated Thursday, October 1, 2026: NOAA Storm Prediction Center 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook (updated 2:49 p.m. CDT) and Mesoscale Discussion 2345 (1:32 p.m. CDT); SPC today’s storm reports page (1200 UTC window); Weather Prediction Center Day 1 excessive-rainfall point file issued 3:26 p.m. EDT; National Weather Service warning text for Dodge City, Wichita, Topeka, Austin/San Antonio, and Shreveport; National Hurricane Center active-cyclone listing and Hurricane Rachel Advisory 17. Morning desk: Storm Updates, October 1, 2026 (Morning).

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook and local storm reports, and the WPC excessive rainfall outlook for the flood overlay.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

October 1, 2026

Storm Updates: Kansas Tornado Window, West Texas Wind Slight — Wednesday, September 30, 2026

Wednesday afternoon desk. The organized severe work is on the Plains, not the coasts. As of Wednesday, September 30, 2026, the Storm Prediction Center 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook still holds a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms across portions of the southern and central Plains. No convective watches are currently valid. Two mesoscale discussions are live with watches possible. The Weather Prediction Center still holds Moderate Risks of excessive rainfall across portions of the central and southern Plains and the Corn Belt.

These are county- and ZIP-scale thunderstorms and flash-flood corridors. No named tropical cyclone is threatening U.S. land this afternoon. Restoration exposure is wind-driven roof and tree work from southwest Oklahoma into west Texas tonight, a conditional brief-tornado window on the Kansas warm front this evening, and interior water where cells train on already-wet ground from the Red River Valley toward Omaha and Des Moines. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What is live this afternoon

SPC’s 1630 UTC outlook (issued 11:26 a.m. CDT, valid 1630 UTC Wednesday through 1200 UTC Thursday) keeps two Slight Risk areas: central and eastern Kansas into far southeast Nebraska, and southwest Oklahoma / northwest Texas through the Edwards Plateau. Combined Slight coverage is about 83,861 square miles and 1.63 million people, with Topeka, Abilene, Wichita Falls, Lawton, and San Angelo on the population list. A broader Marginal wraps San Antonio, Dallas, Austin, Fort Worth, and Oklahoma City. Forecasters Mosier and Chalmers: a few tornadoes and localized wind damage are possible across Kansas and possibly far southeast Nebraska this afternoon and evening. Severe wind gusts, some hail, and a brief tornado are also expected from west Texas into southwest Oklahoma this afternoon into tonight.

No Storm Prediction Center convective watches are currently valid. The watch page, updated 2000 UTC Wednesday, still lists Watch 674 as the most recently issued product. That watch is not in effect this afternoon. Two mesoscale discussions are the live signal instead.

Mesoscale Discussion 2337, issued 2:21 p.m. CDT for portions of central Kansas into extreme northern Oklahoma, is tagged Severe potential… Watch possible, with a 60 percent probability of watch issuance. SPC says a few of the stronger storms may produce brief tornadoes, and that a Tornado Watch will likely be needed at some point in the next few hours. Timing is the open question because storm evolution is expected to be slow.

Mesoscale Discussion 2338, issued 2:56 p.m. CDT for portions of western Texas, is tagged Severe potential… Watch possible, with a 40 percent probability of watch issuance. SPC expects at least a few severe gusts and a couple instances of hail if storms increase in coverage and intensity. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch may be needed. Peak wind in that discussion is 55–70 mph. Peak hail is up to 1.25 inches.

WPC’s Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 0800 UTC Wednesday, valid 12Z Wednesday–12Z Thursday) keeps Moderate Risk language on two corridors: the Front Range into the southern Plains, and the central Plains into the Corn Belt. HREF neighborhood probabilities for more than 3 inches remain 60–90 percent from the Lower Trans Pecos to the central Red River Valley. The Corn Belt footprint is still 2–4 inches, locally around 6 inches, from northern Kansas toward Omaha and Des Moines generally south of I-80.

Hotspot 1 — Central and eastern Kansas into far southeast Nebraska

This is the tornado-window corridor. SPC places the peak around 21Z to 00Z (4 p.m. to 7 p.m. CDT). Cloud cover is expected to linger, so most destabilization is from low-level moisture advection, not full heating. Low-70s dewpoints are forecast over much of central and eastern Kansas by late afternoon. RAP guidance in the 1630 UTC package shows 0–1 km storm-relative helicity of 150–200 m²/s². MD 2337 adds 200–300 m²/s² of 0–3 km SRH along the warm front and the Oklahoma–Kansas border, with backed surface flow. Tornadoes in this kind of tropical, poor-lapse-rate airmass are typically brief. SPC still treats a few longer-duration updrafts as possible.

Cities and counties to watch: Topeka under the Slight list; Wichita under the Marginal wrap; I-70 and Kansas River counties; the state-line counties toward Omaha. Today’s first LSR on the 12Z-to-12Z board is a storm-chaser video report 3 miles south-southwest of Ash Valley in Pawnee County, Kansas, at 2049 UTC (3:49 p.m. CDT). That is a live-cell report, not a damage survey.

Restoration read: tornado plus training rain. A brief tornado is a narrow swath — staff it as a local damage survey. The same warm front is a water job if cells repeat. Do not send one crew to a wind ticket and a flooded basement without checking which county has a warning now.

Hotspot 2 — Southwest Oklahoma, northwest Texas, Edwards Plateau

This remains the higher-confidence wind corridor. Low-70s dewpoints cover much of the southern Plains warm sector. Primary development is expected this evening along modest surface troughing south of the surface low moving into Kansas. An initially supercellular mode is possible from southwest Oklahoma into northwest Texas and the Edwards Plateau, where MLCAPE can reach near or above 1,500 J/kg. Front-parallel flow then favors a linear mode. Severe gusts are the most likely hazard. Isolated hail is more plausible across southwest Texas. A localized brief tornado threat can increase in the evening as effective storm-relative helicity rises.

MD 2338 is the afternoon trigger for western Texas. Surface temperatures there have reached the upper 80s to 90 F. Storms should start multicellular, then become linear as they overspread a dry boundary layer. Cities and counties: Lawton, Wichita Falls, Abilene, San Angelo, the Edwards Plateau counties under the Slight contour, and Midland on the Marginal fringe. An isolated severe threat could linger into parts of central Texas and Oklahoma overnight before buoyancy collapses east of the front.

Restoration read: wind first, water second. Stage tarps, generators, and tree crews before evening initiation, not after the first warning. If a line trains on already-wet ground, treat the same ZIP as a water job by morning.

Hotspot 3 — Southern Rockies, Front Range, and the Corn Belt flood overlay

WPC keeps a Moderate flood risk from the Sangre de Cristos and San Juan Range into the Front Range as northeasterly upslope persists on the northwest side of the surface low. Antecedent wet soils raise the flash-flood probability. Additional 2–4 inches, locally higher, remains the working range, with a second heavy period this evening as the surface low intensifies.

Farther northeast, the Corn Belt Moderate still sits on a southwest-to-northeast axis from northern Kansas through Omaha into Des Moines, generally south of I-80. Hourly rates of 1–2 inches in the better cores, with repeating action on the warm front. North of the warm front the rates drop. That is urban streets, low-water crossings, and small streams first — then finished basements if the same cell trains twice.

Just hit

Today’s 12Z-to-12Z LSR board had been empty until the Pawnee County, Kansas chaser report at 2049 UTC. That is the only official today-board entry as of this desk. Last night’s tickets still stand: a social-media tornado 3 miles south-southeast of Claude in Armstrong County, Texas, at 0012 UTC Tuesday evening; a tornado 7 miles west-northwest of Timbercreek Canyon in Randall County, Texas, at 0245 UTC; 67 mph at Roswell Air Center in Chaves County, New Mexico; 60 mph 2 miles northeast of Roswell; and 65 mph 6 miles west-northwest of Denver City in Yoakum County, Texas. Those are preliminary reports, not damage surveys.

No named tropical cyclone threatens U.S. land this afternoon. NHC is issuing advisories on Hurricane Rachel well south-southwest of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico, Tropical Storm Nolo several hundred miles west of Lihue, Hawaii, and Tropical Depression Nineteen-E over the western East Pacific. Hanna is a remnant low in the central subtropical Atlantic. None of those are a CONUS restoration staffing problem today.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS / WPC level	Status this afternoon
Central/eastern KS into SE NE	Brief tornadoes, localized wind, training rain	SPC Slight + MD 2337 (watch possible, 60%)	Peak 4–7 p.m. CDT; no watch yet
SW OK / NW TX / Edwards Plateau	Severe wind, isolated hail, brief tornado	SPC Slight + MD 2338 west TX (watch possible, 40%)	Evening initiation
Red River Valley / west-central TX	Flash flood, merging clusters	WPC Moderate	Late afternoon into Thursday morning
KS–Omaha–Des Moines (south of I-80)	Flash flood, 1–2 in/hr cores	WPC Moderate	Afternoon through overnight
Southern Rockies / Front Range	Upslope heavy rain, flash flood	WPC Moderate	Evening pulse still live
Pawnee County, KS	Live-cell chaser report	Today’s LSR board	2049 UTC / 3:49 p.m. CDT
TX Panhandle / Chaves County NM	Tornado and wind LSRs from Tuesday night	Yesterday’s Marginal	Just-hit / survey
Atlantic / East Pacific vs. U.S. mainland	No landfalling hurricane	Rachel / Nolo / Hanna offshore	Quiet on the mainland coast

What this means for restoration teams

A Slight Risk is not a watch and not a warning. MD 2337 and MD 2338 are the afternoon products that say a watch may still come. Wind at severe criteria is roof, siding, gutter, and tree-on-structure work. A brief tornado, if one occurs in Kansas or on the Edwards Plateau, is a narrow swath. Heavy rain on the two Moderate flood corridors is extraction the same night and a mold clock by Friday.

For teams in central Kansas, southwest Oklahoma, and northwest Texas: stage before the 21Z–00Z window, not after the first warning. Property owners should photograph damage in remaining daylight only if it is safe, call the carrier, and start extraction the same night if water is inside. Turn around, don’t drown on the Front Range and Corn Belt crossings.

What this is not

This is not a regional derecho and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. Rachel is off western Mexico. Nolo is west of Kauai. Hanna is a remnant low in the central Atlantic. The work today, if it verifies, will be scattered: a wind swath through a Texas or Oklahoma county, a brief tornado on the Kansas warm front, a flooded intersection where cells train on the Red River or south of I-80. That is the local-storm pattern this desk should staff.

Looking ahead

The next Day 1 outlook is scheduled by 2000 UTC. SPC Day 2 (1730 UTC package, valid 12Z Thursday–12Z Friday) drops to a Marginal over portions of Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas for isolated severe wind Thursday afternoon and evening. Watches, if they come tonight, will most likely fire on the Kansas warm front first, then western Texas if coverage increases. Watch the next Storm Tracker update rather than assuming this afternoon’s empty watch list is the last line of the day.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center Sep 30, 2026 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook; SPC Mesoscale Discussions 2337 and 2338; SPC current convective watches page (no watches valid as of 2000 UTC Wednesday); SPC local storm reports for 20260930 (Pawnee County, Kansas) and 20260929 (overnight Panhandle and New Mexico); Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook updated 0800 UTC Wednesday; National Hurricane Center public pages for Rachel, Nolo, Hanna, and Nineteen-E. Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watch, MD, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay.

Morning desk: Storm Updates: Southern Plains Slight Risk, Kansas Tornado Window — Wednesday, September 30, 2026 (Morning).

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

September 30, 2026

Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse, Northeast Flood Slight — Sunday, September 27, 2026

This is a live Sunday afternoon snapshot of U.S. local-storm activity as of Sunday, September 27, 2026. The organized severe desk is quiet. The Storm Prediction Center 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook states no severe thunderstorm areas are forecast and organized severe storms are not expected through early Monday. No convective watches are valid. Restoration exposure this afternoon is leftover nor’easter wind and water on the coastal Northeast, isolated gusty outflow from north Texas cells, and urban ponding where WPC keeps a Slight excessive-rainfall risk from New Jersey through southern New England.

These are county-scale thunderstorms and a fading coastal cyclone, not a mainland hurricane landfall. Conditions change. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What is live this afternoon

SPC issued the 2000 UTC (2:57 p.m. CDT) Day 1 outlook with the categorical line removed. The morning Marginal over western Nebraska and the Black Hills was taken off earlier; this cycle made no further change. Isolated convection was ongoing across portions of central and north Texas near 1945 UTC. SPC notes an isolated strong or damaging gust cannot be ruled out given steep low-level lapse rates and moderate buoyancy, but weak lower-tropospheric flow, limited effective shear, and poor mid-level lapse rates keep the severe probability under 5 percent.

A few additional thunderstorms remain possible late this afternoon and evening along a diffuse surface boundary from north Texas into southern Oklahoma. An occluded cyclone continues to weaken near the northern Mid-Atlantic coast, with elevated convection and isolated lightning possible to its northeast across southeast New England. Elevated storms over central South Dakota this morning were described as already past peak.

Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (valid 12 UTC Sunday through 12 UTC Monday) holds a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall for parts of the coastal Northeast — New Jersey, southern New York, and southern to central New England. Additional rainfall of 1 to 3 inches, locally heavier, is the language over the NYC metro into eastern Massachusetts. A Marginal Risk covers parts of Upstate New York and central New England, plus a separate Marginal from the Texas Hill Country into south-central Oklahoma. Isolated low-end flood potential is noted over portions of northern Arizona as moisture associated with Hurricane Polo begins to lift north of the Mexican coast.

High Wind Warnings that covered Eastern Monmouth and Coastal Ocean Counties in New Jersey and Long Island and adjacent Connecticut zones were in effect until noon EDT Sunday. Those products have expired. Tree-and-wire work from the overnight gusts is a just-hit desk, not a live warning desk.

Hotspot 1 — Coastal Northeast flood slight, wind fade

The live organized threat here is water, not a new severe watch. The slow-moving nor’easter lingering near northern New Jersey and eastern Long Island is still funneling moisture across southern New England. Instability is low, so instantaneous rates are not the main story. Saturated soils from coastal inundation and prior heavy rain keep urban streets, poor drainage, and small streams in play.

Cities and counties to watch: New York City and Long Island; Eastern Monmouth and Coastal Ocean Counties, New Jersey; New London and Middlesex Counties, Connecticut; eastern Massachusetts including the Boston metro. Restoration read: extraction and drying from last night’s wind-driven rain, plus ponding calls if the Slight Risk verifies. Photograph roofs in remaining daylight only if it is safe. Do not treat this as a new High Wind Warning — those expired at noon EDT.

Hotspot 2 — North Texas into southern Oklahoma scatter

This is the only convective corridor SPC is still talking about on the afternoon update. Isolated cells were already up over central and north Texas mid-afternoon. The same diffuse boundary can support a few more storms into southern Oklahoma this evening. Gusty outflow is the listed hazard. Hail and tornado probabilities are not highlighted.

Cities and counties to watch: the Dallas–Fort Worth periphery, Waco and Temple corridors, Wichita Falls, and counties along the Red River into southern Oklahoma. WPC’s Marginal excessive-rainfall pocket from the Texas Hill Country into south-central Oklahoma is the flood overlay on the same air mass. Restoration read: isolated wind and brief heavy rain. Staff local Severe Thunderstorm Warnings if they fire; do not staff a regional outbreak that SPC has already declined to draw.

Hotspot 3 — High Plains leftover and northern Arizona moisture

The morning Marginal for large hail over western Nebraska and the Black Hills is gone. SPC says the central South Dakota convection has already peaked and that any overnight elevated storms from western South Dakota into North Dakota carry only a low isolated-hail threat. NWS Aberdeen did issue a Severe Thunderstorm Warning this morning for parts of Stanley, Sully, and Dewey Counties, South Dakota — 60 mph gusts and quarter-size hail, radar indicated, until 10:00 a.m. CDT. That product is expired.

Northern Arizona is a low-end flood mention only, as flow turns southwest ahead of a trough digging into California and begins to draw moisture associated with Hurricane Polo. Polo itself is a Baja California Sur hurricane, not a U.S. mainland landfall. Restoration read: check whether any local flash-flood warning is actually live before rolling a crew. The outlook language is not a warning.

Just hit

SPC today’s storm-report page for the 1200 UTC Sunday through 1159 UTC Monday window showed no tornado, hail, or wind LSRs as of this afternoon scan. The morning desk already logged overnight Comanche County, Oklahoma wind and quarter hail from Saturday night. Mid-Atlantic High Wind Warnings that ran through noon EDT Sunday are the other just-hit pile: trees, service drops, and coastal water intrusion on the Jersey Shore, Long Island, and southern New England.

That is ticket work already on the books, not a new watch. Hurricane Nolo remains south of the Hawaiian Islands and is not a CONUS landfall. Hurricane Polo is a Mexico / Baja desk. Tropical Depression Fay is well west-southwest of the Azores. None of those systems is a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall this afternoon.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS level	Status this afternoon
Coastal Northeast (NJ / NYC / southern New England)	Urban flood, leftover wind damage	WPC Slight excessive rainfall; High Wind Warnings expired noon EDT	Live flood slight / wind fade
North Texas / southern Oklahoma	Isolated gusty outflow, brief heavy rain	SPC no severe area; WPC Marginal flood (Hill Country–south-central OK)	Scattered cells
Western NE / Black Hills / central SD	Isolated hail earlier; now quiet	Morning MRGL removed; SVR warning expired 10 a.m. CDT	Quiet
Northern Arizona	Isolated heavy rain	WPC low-end mention	Quiet / watch local products
CONUS Atlantic / Gulf coast	No landfalling hurricane	NHC systems offshore (Fay, Polo, Nolo)	Quiet on the mainland

What this means for restoration teams

Sunday afternoon is a close-out and water day, not a chase day. Northeast shops should finish tree-and-roof tickets from the expired High Wind Warnings and stay ready for urban water calls if the Slight Risk trains on already-wet ground. North Texas and southern Oklahoma shops watch local warnings only. High Plains shops can stand down the morning hail Marginal.

Wind that already happened is siding, gutter, and tree-on-structure work. New water on a Slight Risk is wet drywall and a 24–48 hour mold clock. Photograph in daylight if it is safe, call the carrier, and start extraction the same night if water is inside.

What this is not

This is not a regional derecho and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. SPC has no severe thunderstorm area and no watch. Polo is Baja. Nolo is south of Hawaii. Fay is mid-Atlantic open water. Do not invent a named-CAT desk on the CONUS from those tracks.

Looking ahead

SPC Day 2 (Monday) also has no severe thunderstorm areas forecast. Severe thunderstorm probability remains low. WPC discussion language for Monday raises a Moderate excessive-rainfall risk over parts of the Southwest, Great Basin, and central and southern Rockies as Polo moisture is drawn inland — that is tomorrow’s flood overlay, not today’s. Watch the next Storm Tracker update rather than assuming Sunday’s quiet line holds after 12 UTC Monday.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center Sep 27, 2026 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook (Chalmers/Guyer); SPC current watches page updated 1705 UTC Sunday (no watches valid); SPC today’s storm reports (20260927 1200–1159 UTC window); Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook updated 0812 UTC Sunday; NWS warning text including expired High Wind Warnings (Mount Holly and Upton) and the expired Aberdeen Severe Thunderstorm Warning; National Hurricane Center public products for Polo, Nolo, and Fay. Morning desk for this calendar day: Storm Updates: High Plains Hail Marginal, Nor’easter Wind Fade — Sunday, September 27, 2026 (Morning).

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watch, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

September 27, 2026

Storm Updates: High Plains Hail Marginal, Nor’easter Wind Fade — Sunday, September 27, 2026 (Morning)

This is a live Sunday morning snapshot of U.S. local-storm activity as of Sunday, September 27, 2026. Overnight into this morning, the organized severe desk stayed quiet. No Storm Prediction Center tornado or severe thunderstorm watches are valid. The last issued convective watch remains Watch 674, already expired. The 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook, issued 0730 AM CDT and valid 271300Z–281200Z, holds a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms for portions of the central and northern High Plains. Summary language from Norman: isolated thunderstorms capable of large hail will be possible across portions of western Nebraska and the Black Hills of South Dakota. No tornado or damaging-wind probability areas are forecast. Restoration exposure this morning is leftover Mid-Atlantic and southern New England wind from the fading nor’easter, isolated High Plains hail later today, and a Weather Prediction Center Slight excessive-rainfall overlay on parts of southern New England.

Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What is live this morning

No convective watches are current. The SPC watch page states no watches are valid. Today’s storm-report window that opened at 1200 UTC Sunday shows no tornado, hail, or wind reports yet. The overnight board from the Saturday convective day is thin and local: quarter-size hail near Lake Lawtonka in Comanche County, Oklahoma, at 0033 UTC, plus trees down about seven miles west of Central High and roadway damage about six miles north of Hulen in the same county just before 0000 UTC. That is yesterday’s western Oklahoma Marginal verifying as isolated cells, not a watch overlay that carried into Sunday.

The 1300 UTC Day 1 outlook draws a 5 percent hail contour over about 48,893 square miles and roughly 328,899 people. Larger centers inside the contour include Rapid City, Spearfish, Rapid Valley, and Sturgis in South Dakota, and Scottsbluff, Nebraska. A residual moist axis with 60s F surface dewpoints still reaches from the southern Plains into Nebraska and South Dakota. Forcing stays weak through the day, which should keep coverage isolated. Evening coverage may increase as a subtle vorticity maximum and a modest low-level jet arrive. Large hail is the named hazard with the strongest storms. SPC also notes scattered thunderstorms over north and central Texas late this afternoon and isolated to widely scattered storms from northern Utah into central Wyoming, with localized gusty winds possible but not enough confidence for a low-probability severe highlight.

The Weather Prediction Center short-range discussion issued 422 AM EDT Sunday keeps a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of southern New England on Sunday into Monday morning. The same discussion holds a Moderate Risk for Monday over parts of the Southwest, Great Basin, and central and southern Rockies — that is tomorrow’s water desk, not this morning’s. A strong nor’easter still drifts near the New Jersey coastline. WPC language: widespread minor to moderate coastal flooding is expected for at least one more high-tide cycle Sunday morning after significant coastal flooding Saturday. Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph remain possible Sunday morning from New Jersey to Long Island. NWS wind advisories were still live into noon EDT for New York City, Long Island, coastal and southeast Connecticut, the Hudson Valley, and the Berkshires. Gale Warnings remain on New England coastal waters. Dense fog was also in play early this morning over parts of south-central Nebraska and north-central Kansas until 11 AM CDT. A Flood Advisory covers pieces of Bourbon and Crawford Counties in southeastern Kansas into early afternoon.

Hotspot 1 — Western Nebraska and the Black Hills

This is the only categorical severe area on the Sunday Day 1 map. Isolated storms capable of large hail are the forecast, not a wind outbreak and not a tornado corridor. Heating on the western edge of the moist plume can build moderate buoyancy over western Nebraska even with some high cloud. Storm coverage stays limited until evening lift arrives.

Cities and counties to watch: Rapid City, Spearfish, Sturgis, and the Black Hills foothills in South Dakota; Scottsbluff and the Nebraska Panhandle. Restoration read: isolated hail dents and a few broken windows if a cell organizes, not a regional wind swath. Staff lightning and a tarp kit. Do not pre-position as if a Slight is coming.

Hotspot 2 — Mid-Atlantic and southern New England nor’easter fade

The live work here is leftover high wind, trees, wires, tidal water, and one more high-tide cycle — not an SPC convective watch. Saturday’s High Wind Warnings have largely rolled off into Wind Advisories and marine Gale Warnings. WPC is explicit that coastal and tidal flooding matter more than rainfall totals on the cold side of the low. Southern New England still sits under a Slight excessive-rainfall risk for localized urban and poor-drainage flooding as the rain slowly wanes.

Restoration read: this is the just-hit pile from Saturday night into Sunday morning. Check trees on service drops, wet basements, and coastal roads at high tide. Do not treat it as a new severe-thunderstorm outbreak. This is not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. Tropical Depression Fay is well west-southwest of the Azores. Hurricane Polo is a Baja California Sur forecast. Hurricane Nolo remains a Hawaii desk.

Hotspot 3 — North and central Texas, Utah–Wyoming scatter

SPC leaves these areas outside the Marginal contour. Scattered storms over north and central Texas late afternoon, plus isolated to widely scattered storms from northern Utah into central Wyoming, can still throw localized gusty winds. Coverage and magnitude were not enough for a 5 percent wind highlight on the 1300 UTC update. Treat local Severe Thunderstorm Warnings if they fire. Do not invent a watch.

Just hit

Sunday’s 1200 UTC storm-report window is empty as of this morning desk: no tornado, hail, or wind LSRs yet today. Overnight into early Sunday, the Saturday report day closed with isolated Comanche County, Oklahoma work — quarter hail northeast of Lake Lawtonka and trees plus roadway damage west of Central High and north of Hulen. That is the just-hit convective ticket. The larger just-hit desk is coastal wind and tidal water from New Jersey through southern New England after Saturday’s nor’easter blow.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS / WPC level	Status this morning
Western NE / Black Hills SD	Isolated large hail	SPC 1300 UTC Marginal	Afternoon into evening
NJ / NYC / Long Island / southern New England	Residual wind, tidal flood, urban rain	Wind advisories; WPC Slight rain	Fading through Sunday
Comanche County, OK	Trees, quarter hail	Saturday LSRs	Just hit overnight
North / central TX; northern UT–central WY	Localized gusty wind	General thunderstorms	Late day scatter
CONUS severe watches	None	No watches; last was 674	Quiet
SPC LSRs today (from 12Z Sun)	None yet	0 tornado / 0 hail / 0 wind	Quiet

What this means for restoration teams

Sunday morning is a quiet-pulse-plus-leftover desk. The convective piece is a small High Plains hail Marginal with no watch and an empty Sunday LSR board. Treat that as isolated cells later today, not a regional event. The live volume is already on the ground along the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England coast: trees, wires, and wet interiors from Saturday into this morning’s last high tide. Interior water still starts a 24–48 hour mold clock. Photograph in daylight if it is safe. Do not drive flooded coastal roads at high tide.

What this is not

This is not a regional derecho and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. SPC has one Marginal hail area and no Slight or higher. No convective watch is up. Today’s LSR board is empty. The nor’easter is a fading high-wind and coastal-flood event on the cold side of the low. That is the local-storm pattern this desk should staff.

Looking ahead

SPC Day 2 and Day 3 convective outlooks carry no severe thunderstorm areas. WPC lifts a Moderate excessive-rainfall risk Monday over parts of the Southwest, Great Basin, and central and southern Rockies, with a Slight over parts of the Upper Midwest Monday. Watch the afternoon Storm Tracker rather than assuming the High Plains Marginal is the last line of the week.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook for Sunday, September 27, 2026 (issued 0730 AM CDT); SPC current watch page (no watches valid; last issued Watch 674); SPC storm reports for 1200 UTC September 26 through 1159 UTC September 27 and the new Sunday window from 1200 UTC September 27; Weather Prediction Center Short Range Forecast Discussion issued 422 AM EDT Sunday; National Weather Service wind-advisory, gale-warning, dense-fog, and flood-advisory text; National Hurricane Center Tropical Weather Outlook (Fay well west-southwest of the Azores; no U.S. mainland tropical cyclone landfall).

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watch, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay. Prior desk: Saturday afternoon, September 26 storm updates.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

September 27, 2026

Storm Updates: Mid-Atlantic High Wind, Southern Plains Marginal — Saturday, September 26, 2026

This is a live Saturday afternoon snapshot of U.S. local-storm activity as of Saturday, September 26, 2026. The organized severe desk is a small Marginal over the southern Plains, not a national outbreak. The Storm Prediction Center 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook, issued 0250 PM CDT and valid 262000Z–271200Z, holds a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms late this afternoon and evening from western Oklahoma into northwest Texas. Summary language from Norman: isolated hail and strong outflow winds may accompany thunderstorms across portions of the southern Plains late this afternoon into the early evening. The outlined Marginal covers about 32,889 square miles and roughly 748,515 people, with larger centers including Wichita Falls, Lawton, Enid, Yukon, and Altus. No convective watches are valid. Restoration exposure this afternoon is split: tree and power-line wind on the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England High Wind Warnings, isolated hail and outflow gusts on the Oklahoma–northwest Texas Marginal, and water on the Weather Prediction Center Slight excessive-rainfall areas over Iowa and the coastal Northeast.

Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What is live this afternoon

No tornado or severe thunderstorm watches are current. The SPC watch page states no watches are valid. The last issued convective watch on the board is Watch 674, already expired. No mesoscale discussions are in effect. The 20Z Day 1 update kept the forecast generally on track and made only a slight southward expansion of the 5 percent wind probability. As of 1945 UTC, a deepening cumulus field was noted from West Texas into southwestern Oklahoma, with isolated thunderstorm development ongoing over the higher terrain of southwest Texas. Temperatures had warmed into the upper 80s to mid 90s F, with temperature-dewpoint spreads approaching 30 F in parts of northwest Texas. Steep low-level lapse rates may support isolated strong or damaging outflow gusts, with an instance of large hail also possible farther north where deep-layer shear is marginally stronger. A lack of stronger synoptic-scale forcing, generally modest mid-level flow, and poor mid-level lapse rates are expected to limit overall intensity and coverage.

The Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, updated 1556 UTC Saturday and valid 16Z Saturday through 12Z Sunday, holds a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall for parts of the coastal Northeast and Iowa. WPC notes a large nor’easter crawling off the Delaware and southern New Jersey coast, with a 986 mb center as of the 16Z discussion. Coastal and tidal flooding, aided by a full moon and the storm’s slow motion, are described as substantially more impactful than rainfall flooding. The Slight was expanded slightly to include urban northern New Jersey and urban central Connecticut. A higher-end Slight that had covered eastern Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and eastern Long Island was dropped with the 16Z update. All of the Northeast sits on the cold, northwest side of the storm, so instability for truly heavy convective rain is lacking. This remains a prolonged light-to-moderate rain event stacked on tides and high wind, not a warm-sector flash-flood outbreak.

Iowa’s Slight was left unchanged for central and southwestern Iowa. High-resolution guidance suggests showers and storms on the nose of a low-level jet this evening and tonight. Wet soils have lowered flash-flood guidance into the 1 to 1.5 inch per hour range. Instability is the limiter, struggling to exceed 500 J/kg. A Marginal Risk also remains over more sensitive parts of West Texas around the Davis Mountains and Stockton Plateau.

High Wind Warnings remain the live non-convective overlay on the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England coast. NWS Mount Holly continues a High Wind Warning until 6 AM EDT Sunday for the Delaware beaches and coastal New Jersey zones including Eastern Monmouth, Atlantic Coastal Cape May, Coastal Atlantic, and Coastal Ocean, with north winds 30 to 40 mph and gusts up to 60 mph. NWS Boston/Norton continues High Wind Warnings until 8 AM EDT Sunday for portions of eastern, northeastern, and southeastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island, with northeast winds 20 to 30 mph and gusts up to 50 to 60 mph depending on zone. Those products are trees and power lines, not SPC severe thunderstorm watches.

Hotspot 1 — Western Oklahoma into northwest Texas

This is the only categorical severe area on the Saturday Day 1 map. The 20Z outlook keeps isolated hail and strong outflow as the hazards late afternoon into early evening. Surface-based storms can still form where heating wins west of leftover morning cloud from southwest Oklahoma into Kansas. Cities inside the Marginal include Wichita Falls, Lawton, Enid, Yukon, and Altus. Isolated thunderstorms were already firing on the higher terrain of southwest Texas by mid-afternoon.

Restoration read: isolated wind and a possible hail stone, not a watch overlay. Staff lightning and a few downed limbs if a cell organizes near Lawton, Altus, or the Wichita Falls side of the Red River. Do not pre-position as if a Slight or Enhanced is coming. Photograph any hail or wind damage in daylight if it is safe.

Hotspot 2 — Jersey Shore, Delaware beaches, southern New England

The live work here is High Wind Warnings plus coastal and tidal flooding under a slow nor’easter, not an SPC convective watch. Mount Holly holds the warning through 6 AM Sunday on the Delaware beaches and the New Jersey coastal strip from Sandy Hook and Eastern Monmouth through Atlantic City, Long Beach Island, and Cape May. Boston/Norton holds through 8 AM Sunday from the North Shore and Boston through the South Coast, Cape Cod, the Islands, and Rhode Island. WPC’s Slight rainfall risk still covers parts of the coastal Northeast, including urban northern New Jersey and urban central Connecticut, but the 16Z discussion is explicit: coastal and tidal flooding matter more than the rain totals.

Restoration read: trees, wires, and wet basements on a long-duration coastal blow. Power outages are the expected ticket language in the NWS impact statements. Do not drive inundated coastal roads at high tide. This is not a hurricane landfall and not a derecho. Hurricane Nolo is a Hawaii desk. Hurricane Polo is a Baja California Sur forecast, not a U.S. East Coast landfall.

Hotspot 3 — Central and southwestern Iowa

WPC left the Slight Risk unchanged at 16Z for central and southwestern Iowa. Cell training along a northwest-southeast stationary front is still possible this evening and tonight on already wet soils. Earlier discussion language also kept eastern Nebraska and far northern Missouri in the broader rain corridor, with some 24-hour amounts able to reach or exceed 2 inches where storms train. Instability stays weak. Occasional mainly elevated thunderstorms remain possible from northeast Oklahoma northward to Iowa per the SPC Day 1 discussion, but that is not a categorical severe area.

Restoration read: water on poor drainage and low crossings tonight, not hail or a wind swath. Check Saturday night into Sunday morning for ponding. Turn around, don’t drown.

Just hit

SPC today’s storm reports for the 1200 UTC September 26 through 1159 UTC September 27 window show no tornado reports, no hail reports, and no wind reports as of this afternoon desk. The severe board is still empty for today’s convective day.

The work that is already a ticket is coastal wind and water on the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England side of the nor’easter, plus leftover runoff from the last several days on the southern High Plains. Those are NWS high-wind and flood products, not today’s SPC local storm reports. Do not reprint Friday’s New Mexico flash-flood warnings as Saturday LSRs.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS / WPC level	Status this afternoon
Western OK / northwest TX	Isolated hail, outflow wind	SPC 2000 UTC Marginal	Live late afternoon / evening
DE beaches / NJ coast / southern New England	High wind, trees, tidal flood	NWS High Wind Warnings; WPC Slight rain	Warnings into Sunday morning
Central / southwestern Iowa	Training rain, isolated runoff	WPC Slight	Evening / overnight
West Texas mountains	Localized heavy rain	WPC Marginal	Isolated
CONUS severe watches	None	No watches; last was 674	Quiet
SPC LSRs today	None	0 tornado / 0 hail / 0 wind	Quiet

What this means for restoration teams

Saturday afternoon is a split desk. The convective piece is a small Marginal from western Oklahoma into northwest Texas with no watch and an empty LSR board. Treat that as isolated cells, not a regional wind event. The live volume sits on the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England High Wind Warnings: trees, wires, and wet basements under a slow nor’easter. Iowa is an overnight water check on already wet ground.

Interior water still starts a 24–48 hour mold clock. Photograph in daylight if it is safe. Do not drive flooded coastal roads at high tide or low crossings in Iowa tonight. Hurricane Nolo remains a Hawaii flood-and-wind desk south of the Big Island. Hurricane Polo is forecast for Baja California Sur, not the U.S. mainland. Tropical Storm Gonzalo and Tropical Depression Fay are well out in the eastern and central Atlantic. Do not mix those crew maps with the Jersey Shore wind pile or the Oklahoma Marginal.

What this is not

This is not a regional derecho and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. SPC has one Marginal area and no Slight or higher. No convective watch is up. No mesoscale discussion is up. Today’s LSR board is empty. The nor’easter is a high-wind and coastal-flood event on the cold side of the low, not a tropical cyclone making landfall on the East Coast. That is the local-storm pattern this desk should staff.

Looking ahead

The SPC Day 2 Convective Outlook, issued 1247 AM CDT Saturday and valid 271200Z–281200Z Sunday, carries no severe thunderstorm areas. Summary: severe thunderstorms are not expected Sunday. An upper low is expected to meander over the lower Hudson Valley while ridging prevails over the Plains. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible from the Great Basin into the Plains, but overlapping buoyancy and shear look limited. Day 3 also has no severe thunderstorm areas. Sunday’s restoration check is leftover Mid-Atlantic wind damage and any Iowa runoff that verifies overnight, not a new severe outbreak.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook for Saturday, September 26, 2026 (issued 0250 PM CDT); SPC current watch page (no watches valid; last issued Watch 674); SPC mesoscale discussion page (none in effect); SPC storm reports for 1200 UTC September 26 through 1159 UTC September 27 (no tornado, hail, or wind reports at this desk); Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook discussion updated 1153 AM EDT Saturday; NWS Mount Holly High Wind Warning text; NWS Boston/Norton High Wind Warning text; SPC Day 2 Convective Outlook issued 1247 AM CDT Saturday; National Hurricane Center active-system summaries for Nolo, Polo, Gonzalo, and Fay.

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watch, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay. Morning desk: Saturday morning, September 26 storm updates.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

September 26, 2026

Storm Updates: New Mexico Flood Slight, Quiet Severe Pulse — Friday, September 25, 2026

This is a live Friday afternoon snapshot of U.S. local-storm activity as of Friday, September 25, 2026. The organized desk is still water on the southern High Plains, not a national wind outbreak. The Storm Prediction Center 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook, issued 0251 PM CDT and valid 252000Z–261200Z, carries no severe thunderstorm areas. Summary language from Norman: organized severe thunderstorms are not expected today. The 20Z update made no changes. Isolated thunderstorms were noted across western Oklahoma around 1945 UTC, but cloud cover continues to limit heating. The Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook still holds a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall across portions of the southern High Plains, with moisture lifting northeast toward the central Kansas–Nebraska border and the northern Nebraska–Iowa border tonight.

Restoration exposure this afternoon is water: leftover runoff from last night’s New Mexico–west Texas MCS, live flash-flood warnings on the Albuquerque desk, and isolated heavy cells if storms redevelop on already wet ground. Wind and hail remain a low-confidence scatter, not a watch overlay. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What is live this afternoon

No tornado or severe thunderstorm watches are current. The SPC watch page, updated 1804 UTC Friday, states no watches are valid. The last issued convective watch on the board is Watch 674, already expired. No mesoscale discussions are in effect as of 2010 UTC Friday. Yesterday evening’s 0100 UTC Day 1 outlook had carried a Marginal Risk over parts of the Texas Panhandle; that window closed overnight. Today’s packages dropped categorical severe probabilities entirely.

Water products are the live overlay. NWS Albuquerque issued a flash-flood warning at 135 PM MDT Friday for east-central Cibola County until 430 PM MDT, covering Laguna Pueblo, New Laguna, Mesita, Acoma Pueblo, Paraje, Seama, and Acomita, including Interstate 40 between mile markers 106 and 121. Radar indicated up to 1 inch already down with another half inch possible. A second Albuquerque warning at 220 PM MDT covers west-central Santa Fe County until 515 PM MDT. Midland/Odessa continues a Flood Watch through this evening for portions of southeast New Mexico — Central Lea, Eddy County Plains, Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County, Northern Lea — and southwest Texas including the Davis and Guadalupe Mountains, Marfa Plateau, Presidio Valley, and the Van Horn corridor. Albuquerque also continues a Flood Watch until midnight MDT for east-central and southeast New Mexico, including Curry, Roosevelt, Chaves, Quay, De Baca, eastern Lincoln, and the south-central mountains.

Hotspot 1 — Cibola and Santa Fe Counties, New Mexico

This is the live afternoon ticket. Albuquerque’s Cibola warning is radar-indicated heavy rain on already sensitive ground, with life-threatening flash-flood language on creeks, urban areas, and I-40. The Santa Fe County warning is the same pattern a county east: up to an inch already, more possible through mid-afternoon. These are not the overnight Eddy–Chaves–Otero warnings from the morning desk. Those expired. This is a new pulse on the west-central and north-central New Mexico side of the same moisture plume.

Restoration read: water first. Do not treat I-40 between Grants and Albuquerque as a clean haul if the Cibola warning is still live. Photograph high-water marks after the product expires. Extraction and drying on structures that took this afternoon’s pulse start the same 24–48 hour mold clock as last night’s Pecos Valley work. Turn around, don’t drown on pueblo and canyon crossings.

Hotspot 2 — Southeast New Mexico into West Texas (Flood Watch)

WPC keeps the Slight Risk from southeastern New Mexico to the southern Panhandle and south into parts of West Texas where 3-hour flash-flood guidance is under an inch. Midland’s Flood Watch through this evening names Artesia, Carlsbad, Hobbs, Lovington, Alpine, Marfa, Fort Davis, Van Horn, and Presidio. Guidance had morning storms diminishing as the shortwave lifted northeast, then allowed localized 1–2 inch amounts later in the day on wet soils. Gaines County, Texas, took a morning flash-flood warning from Midland at 734 AM CDT until 1030 AM CDT for Seminole and Seagraves; that product is expired and belongs in the just-hit column.

Restoration read: leftover water from Thursday night plus any new cells on the watch. Stage pumps where last night’s warnings sat — Eddy, Chaves, Otero, El Paso, Hudspeth — and keep an eye on Lea County and the Davis Mountains if afternoon storms fire. This is still not a wind event.

Hotspot 3 — Western Oklahoma scatter and the central Plains rain axis

SPC’s 20Z discussion notes isolated thunderstorm development across western Oklahoma as of 1945 UTC, with cloud cover still tempering surface heating. A stronger gust or two remains possible where a cell finds a pocket of better heating, but the overall severe risk is limited. That is why there is still no categorical severe area and no watch. Farther north, WPC notes that shortwave energy and tropical-origin moisture lifting out of the Southwest can support efficient rainfall tonight near the central Kansas–Nebraska border northeast toward the northern Nebraska–Iowa border, with some guidance showing more than 2 inches. Instability stays weak. Treat that as isolated runoff, not a Moderate flood upgrade.

Restoration read: western Oklahoma is lightning and a possible isolated gust. Kansas–Nebraska–Iowa is a Saturday-morning check on poor-drainage and low crossings if the overnight rain verifies, not a Friday afternoon extract pile.

Just hit

SPC today’s storm reports for the 1200 UTC September 25 through 1159 UTC September 26 window show no tornado reports, no hail reports, and no wind reports as of this afternoon desk. That is a Quiet Pulse on the severe board.

The work that already happened is water. Overnight flash-flood warnings from Midland, Albuquerque, and El Paso/Santa Teresa covered northwestern Eddy County, southwestern Chaves County, and central Otero County in New Mexico, plus east-central El Paso and west-central Hudspeth Counties in Texas, where 2 to 3 inches had already fallen before dawn. Those products expired this morning. Midland’s Gaines County warning this morning for Seminole and Seagraves also expired. Survey and extraction replace that overlay. Thursday’s 60 mph wind report at Memphis in Hall County, Texas, remains yesterday’s High Plains Marginal, not a new Friday LSR.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS / WPC level	Status this afternoon
Cibola / Santa Fe Counties, NM	Flash flood, I-40 runoff	NWS Albuquerque FFWs	Live until 430 / 515 PM MDT
SE NM / West Texas	Flash flood, leftover runoff	WPC Slight; Midland / ABQ Flood Watches	Watch through evening / midnight
Western OK cells	Isolated gust, lightning	SPC 2000 UTC: no categorical area	Scatter only
KS–NE–IA rain axis	Heavy rain tonight, isolated runoff	WPC discussion, no Moderate	Overnight check
CONUS severe watches	None	No watches; last was 674	Quiet
SPC LSRs today	None	0 tornado / 0 hail / 0 wind	Quiet

What this means for restoration teams

Friday afternoon is a Quiet Pulse on the severe side and a water desk in New Mexico. The live work is Cibola and Santa Fe Counties while those warnings are up, plus extraction on last night’s Eddy–Chaves–Otero–El Paso–Hudspeth pile. Interior water starts a 24–48 hour mold clock. Photograph in daylight if it is safe. Do not drive flooded crossings in the pueblos, the Sacramento Mountains, or the Pecos Valley.

Western Oklahoma and West Texas may still fire isolated strong cells before sunset. Staff that as local lightning and a possible isolated gust, not a regional wind swath. The Kansas–Nebraska rain axis is a Saturday morning check. Hurricane Nolo remains a Hawaii County flood-and-wind desk. Fay and Gonzalo in the Atlantic and Polo and Odalys in the eastern Pacific are not U.S. mainland landfalls this afternoon. Do not mix those crew maps with the New Mexico water pile.

What this is not

This is not a regional derecho and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. SPC has no Day 1 severe area. No convective watch is up. No mesoscale discussion is up. Today’s LSR board is empty. Thursday’s Moderate flood risk over southeast New Mexico remains stepped down to a Slight. The work this afternoon is leftover water plus two live Albuquerque flash-flood warnings. That is the local-storm pattern this desk should staff.

Looking ahead

The SPC Day 2 Convective Outlook, issued 1226 PM CDT Friday and valid 261200Z–271200Z Saturday, carries a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms late Saturday afternoon and evening from northwest Texas into central Kansas. Summary: isolated hail and strong outflow winds may accompany thunderstorms across portions of the central and southern Plains Saturday. Day 3 Sunday has no severe thunderstorm areas. WPC Day 2 steps the Northeast up to a Slight excessive-rainfall risk Saturday as a nor’easter deepens east of New Jersey, with 1–3 inches possible from the northern Mid-Atlantic into southern New England. That is Saturday’s overlay, not tonight’s New Mexico ticket.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook for Friday, September 25, 2026 (issued 0251 PM CDT); SPC current watch page (no watches valid as of 1804 UTC; last issued Watch 674); SPC mesoscale discussion page (none in effect as of 2010 UTC); SPC storm reports for 1200 UTC September 25 through 1159 UTC September 26 (no tornado, hail, or wind reports at this desk); Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook discussion; National Weather Service Albuquerque flash-flood warnings for Cibola County (135 PM MDT) and Santa Fe County (220 PM MDT); NWS Midland/Odessa Flood Watch and Gaines County flash-flood warning text; NWS Albuquerque Flood Watch; SPC Day 2 Convective Outlook issued 1226 PM CDT Friday.

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watch, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay. Morning desk: Friday morning, September 25 storm updates.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

September 25, 2026

Storm Updates: Southeast New Mexico Flood Moderate, High Plains Marginal — Thursday, September 24, 2026

This is a live Thursday afternoon snapshot of U.S. local-storm activity as of Thursday, September 24, 2026. The organized desk is water, not a national wind outbreak. The Weather Prediction Center 16Z Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook upgrade holds a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall across parts of southeast New Mexico. The Storm Prediction Center 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook holds a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms across portions of the eastern Texas Panhandle, western Oklahoma, and western Kansas. No convective watches are in effect as of the 2107 UTC SPC watch page.

These are county-scale thunderstorms and flash-flood cells on saturated soils, not a mainland hurricane landfall. Restoration exposure this afternoon and tonight is interior water and mud where New Mexico cells train, plus isolated wind, hail, and tree work if a High Plains downburst verifies. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What is live this afternoon

SPC’s 1630 UTC Day 1 outlook, issued 1114 AM CDT Thursday, September 24, 2026, and valid 1630Z Thursday through 1200Z Friday, places a Marginal Risk over about 42,181 square miles and roughly 370,000 people. Named population centers inside the contour include Dodge City, Kansas; Altus, Oklahoma; Pampa, Texas; Woodward, Oklahoma; and Elk City, Oklahoma. The official summary: a couple of marginally severe thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon into the early evening across parts of the southern High Plains. A 2000 UTC outlook update discussed on secondary feeds left the contour unchanged and pointed to Mesoscale Discussion 2327; by 1801 UTC the SPC mesoscale page showed no discussions in effect, with 2326 the most recent archived number.

WPC’s Day 1 excessive-rainfall discussion issued 417 PM EDT Thursday, September 24, 2026, upgraded the existing Slight Risk to a Moderate Risk for portions of southeast New Mexico after coordination with NWS Albuquerque and El Paso. The language cites slow-moving thunderstorms, saturated soils from multiple prior Moderate ERO days, and HREF neighborhood probabilities over 70 percent for both 3 inches of rain and 10-year ARI exceedance over parts of Lincoln, Chaves, and Otero counties. Surrounding Slight and Marginal flood-risk language remains over parts of the Southwest into the southern and central Plains. WPC Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1375, issued 238 PM EDT Thursday and valid 1838Z Thursday through 0003Z Friday, flags the Pecos River Valley: flash flooding likely, with 2 to 4 inches possible where cells backbuild near the Sacramento Mountains.

No tornado or severe thunderstorm watches are current. The last issued convective watch on the SPC board is Watch 674, already expired. SPC today’s storm reports (1200 UTC September 24 through 1159 UTC September 25) show one preliminary wind report as of this desk: 60 mph at Memphis in Hall County, Texas, at 1758 UTC, relayed by NWS Lubbock. No hail or tornado reports have posted on that same page yet.

Hotspot 1 — Southeast New Mexico: Lincoln, Chaves, Otero

This is the live flood upgrade. WPC and WFO coordination put the Moderate Risk on the eastern slope of the Sacramento Mountains and the upper Pecos drainage, where soils already sit at very high NASA SPoRT moisture percentiles and flash-flood guidance is low. Cities and counties to watch: Ruidoso and the Lincoln County high country, Roswell and Chaves County, Alamogordo and Otero County, plus adjacent terrain toward the Texas line covered by MPD 1375.

Restoration read: water first. Treat any ZIP that takes a 1- to 2-inch-per-hour core as an extraction job tonight, not a tomorrow morning survey. Photograph only if it is safe. Low-water crossings and arroyos fail before the living room does. Turn around, don’t drown.

Hotspot 2 — Eastern Texas Panhandle, western Oklahoma, western Kansas

This is the SPC Marginal contour. Outlook language from Mosier and Chalmers at 1114 AM CDT Thursday: mid-to-upper 60s dewpoints east of a mid-level moisture plume, afternoon temperatures in the mid to upper 80s, MLCAPE 1500 to 2000 J/kg, weak shear, disorganized storm mode, a few water-loaded downbursts, and a couple of weak supercells possible into Kansas where a weak vorticity maximum moves through. Isolated hail or damaging gusts are the ceiling in the official text. Dodge City, Pampa, Amarillo’s eastern approaches, Altus, Elk City, and Woodward sit inside or on the edge of that language.

Restoration read: isolated wind and hail tickets, not a line. Stage one tarp crew and one extractor, not a CAT convoy. The 60 mph Memphis, Texas, report is the only official LSR on today’s SPC page as of this writing — treat it as a local pulse, not proof the whole contour verified.

Hotspot 3 — Hawaii County under Tropical Storm Nolo; East Coast coastal low is not a named landfall

The National Hurricane Center and Central Pacific Hurricane Center are issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Nolo. As of the Thursday afternoon NHC/CPHC board, Nolo was south of the Big Island with maximum sustained winds near 70 mph, a Tropical Storm Warning in effect for Hawaii County, and forecast language that it could reach hurricane strength later Thursday. That is U.S. land exposure on the Big Island. It is not a continental U.S. landfall.

Tropical Storm Fay is in the central Atlantic, hundreds of miles west-southwest of the Azores, and is not a U.S. land threat on current advisories. Hurricane Polo is off southwestern Mexico. Hurricane Odalys is well west-southwest of Baja. WPC short-range discussion also flags a developing East Coast coastal low for coastal flooding, rip currents, wind gusts, and heavy rain into the weekend. That feature is not a named hurricane making U.S. landfall. Do not staff the Mid-Atlantic as if Fay or Polo were coming ashore.

Just hit

Yesterday’s SPC report page (1200 UTC September 23 through 1159 UTC September 24) is already a ticket list, not today’s new watch: quarter-size hail at New England in Hettinger County, North Dakota, at 2307 UTC; a tree down at Van Wert in Polk County, Georgia, at 2000 UTC; a 58 mph gust 4 SE of Frederick in Tillman County, Oklahoma, at 2158 UTC. Overnight into this morning, NWS Dodge City had a Flash Flood Warning covering parts of Grant, Hamilton, Kearny, Morton, and Stanton counties in southwestern Kansas until 500 AM CDT Thursday after 2 to 3 inches of rain. That Kansas water is yesterday-into-dawn work still on the books.

The Thursday morning Storm Updates already logged the New Mexico–Plains flood slight and Dakotas hail pulse. This afternoon post is the upgrade desk: WPC Moderate on southeast New Mexico, SPC Marginal still on the High Plains, watches still zero.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS level	Status this afternoon
SE New Mexico (Lincoln / Chaves / Otero)	Flash flood, training 2–4 in cores	WPC Moderate + MPD 1375	Live flood desk
Eastern TX Panhandle / western OK / western KS	Isolated damaging gusts, isolated hail	SPC Marginal	No watch; late-day cells
SW Kansas overnight counties	Already-fallen 2–3 in rain	Expired FF.W overnight	Aftermath / still wet
Hawaii County	TS wind, surf, heavy rain	Tropical Storm Warning (Nolo)	Live tropical warning
East Coast coastal low	Coastal flood, rip, gusty wind	WPC short-range language	Not a named landfall
CONUS watches	None	No valid SPC watch	Quiet watch board

What this means for restoration teams

Southeast New Mexico is a water night. Saturated soils plus another 2 to 4 inches in a training core is wet drywall, crawlspaces, and a 24-to-48-hour mold clock. High Plains Marginal cells, if they verify, are roof, siding, and isolated tree-on-structure work — staff them as single-ZIP pulses. Hawaii County under Nolo is a separate tropical desk: wind-driven rain, surf, and outages on the Big Island, not a Gulf or Atlantic landfall. Do not mix those three crews in one dispatch board.

For teams near Roswell, Ruidoso, or Alamogordo: stage extractors and pumps before dark, not after the first flash-flood warning. For teams near Pampa, Altus, or Dodge City: one severe-warned cell is the ticket, not the whole outlook contour. Property owners should photograph damage in remaining daylight only if it is safe, call the carrier, and start extraction the same night if water is inside.

What this is not

This is not a regional derecho and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. Fay is mid-ocean. Polo is off Mexico. Odalys is well offshore in the eastern Pacific. Nolo is a Hawaii County warning, which is real U.S. land exposure, but it is not the CONUS headline. The work tonight, if it comes, will be scattered: a flooded arroyo in Lincoln or Chaves County, a downburst roof in the Texas Panhandle or western Oklahoma, leftover Kansas water from last night. That is the local-storm pattern this desk should staff.

Looking ahead

The SPC 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook issued 1228 PM CDT Thursday, September 24, 2026, valid 1200Z Friday through 1200Z Saturday, carries no severe thunderstorm areas. Summary: severe thunderstorms are not expected Friday. WPC Day 2 excessive rainfall, updated Thursday, holds a Marginal Risk from New Mexico into the Plains and over southeast New England. Day 3 convective language on the SPC homepage still shows a later Marginal window. Watch the next Storm Tracker update rather than assuming today’s Moderate flood contour is the last water line of the week.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources dated Thursday, September 24, 2026: NOAA Storm Prediction Center 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook; SPC current watches page (no valid watches as of 2107 UTC); SPC today and September 23 storm-report pages; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook and 417 PM EDT discussion (Moderate Risk, southeast New Mexico); WPC Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1375 (Pecos River Valley); WPC Day 2 ERO; SPC 1730 UTC Day 2 outlook; National Hurricane Center / CPHC advisory board for Tropical Storm Nolo, Tropical Storm Fay, Hurricane Polo, and Hurricane Odalys; National Weather Service warning text including the overnight Dodge City flash-flood warning.

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watch, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay. Related desk: Thursday morning Storm Updates.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

September 24, 2026

Storm Updates: Oklahoma and High Plains Slight Risk — Sunday, September 20, 2026

This is a live Sunday afternoon snapshot of U.S. local-storm activity as of Sunday, September 20, 2026. The organized pulse is still the Storm Prediction Center Slight Risk over central and eastern Oklahoma and from eastern Colorado into far western Kansas. As of 2013 UTC, no convective watches are valid. Overnight Severe Thunderstorm Watches 670, 671, and 672 have expired. Restoration exposure this afternoon and evening is damaging wind and large hail on the Oklahoma and High Plains Slight Risk, leftover interior water where Midwest and Ohio Valley cells trained last night, and a local Florida flash-flood polygon that is not the national headline.

These are county- and ZIP-scale thunderstorms, not a mainland hurricane landfall. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What is live this afternoon

The SPC 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook, issued 0244 PM CDT Sunday, September 20, 2026 and valid 202000Z–211200Z, holds a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of central and eastern Oklahoma and from eastern Colorado into far western Kansas. The official summary: thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and large hail remain possible this afternoon and evening across those two corridors. Isolated severe gusts and hail are also possible in parts of the southern Plains and from the Ozarks eastward into the Ohio Valley. The 20Z update said the forecast remained generally on track with only minor adjustments.

No watches are currently valid. The most recently issued watch was Severe Thunderstorm Watch 672. Mesoscale Discussion 2316, issued 0149 PM CDT Sunday and valid through 2115 UTC, covers northeast and eastern Colorado, far western Kansas, and southwest Nebraska. Language is severe potential, watch possible, with a 60 percent watch-issuance probability. Isolated storms over northeast Colorado, large hail probable, a few severe gusts possible by early evening. Most probable peak hail size in that MD is 1.50 to 2.50 inches. Most probable peak wind gust 55 to 70 mph.

The Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, updated 1602 UTC Sunday and valid 16 UTC September 20 through 12 UTC September 21, keeps Slight Risks over portions of the Midwest and Ohio Valley and over the northern High Plains. The 16Z update trimmed the northern edge of the Midwest Slight (northern Illinois, southern Iowa, northern Missouri) and kept the better confidence farther east into the Upper Ohio Valley, where antecedent 24-hour totals already ran 1 to 2 inches areal average and 3 to 4 inches locally. A separate Slight pocket remains focused over southwest South Dakota and the Black Hills on upslope flow and Saturday’s leftover wet ground.

Hotspot 1 — Central and eastern Oklahoma

This is one of the two Slight Risk contours on the 2000 UTC outlook. A surface low sits over central Oklahoma along a cold front that arcs from northeast Oklahoma into southwest Oklahoma and back through the central Texas Panhandle. A shortwave trough is moving into western Oklahoma. The airmass ahead of the front is warm, moist, and moderately buoyant. Mid-level flow is stronger across Oklahoma than across Texas, which is why the organized severe corridor is drawn here rather than over the more disorganized Texas cells. Primary threat language is damaging gusts of 55 to 65 mph, with hail in the stronger cores.

Cities and counties to watch: Tulsa, Broken Arrow, Muskogee, Shawnee, Ardmore, and the rest of the central and eastern Oklahoma Slight contour. Oklahoma City sits near the western edge of the broader risk language even when it is not the center of the Slight.

Restoration read: wind and hail first. Stage tarps, generators, and roof tarping before dark. Photograph roofs in remaining daylight only if it is safe. Do not treat this as a statewide outbreak. It is a corridor.

Hotspot 2 — Eastern Colorado into far western Kansas and southwest Nebraska

This is the other Slight Risk plus MD 2316. Easterly low-level flow north of the surface front is holding 50s F dewpoints across eastern Colorado. Heating plus cool temperatures aloft support moderate destabilization. Storm coverage is expected to stay isolated to widely scattered because of cooler surface temperatures and leftover inhibition, but any storm that matures is favored to be supercellular. Primary severe hazard on the outlook is large hail of 1 to 2.5 inches. Isolated severe gusts are possible. Some lingering severe risk may develop over southeast Colorado late this evening and spread into the Oklahoma Panhandle overnight.

Cities and counties to watch: the Palmer Divide and northeast Colorado, Lamar and the High Plains counties, far western Kansas, and southwest Nebraska where left-split cells can throw hail. Local Severe Thunderstorm Warnings already fired this afternoon in Dundy and Chase Counties, Nebraska.

Restoration read: hail and isolated wind. This is a few strong cells, not a line. Staff it as spot jobs — broken shingles, cracked skylights, vehicle and siding hits — not a regional CAT.

Hotspot 3 — Midwest and Ohio Valley flood leftovers, plus a Florida polygon

WPC keeps a Slight excessive-rainfall risk on last night’s rain axis from central Illinois and east-central Missouri into the Upper Ohio Valley. Antecedent ground is already wet. Training or backbuilding later this evening and overnight could add 2 to 4 inches in the better cores. River and flash-flood products this morning and midday covered eastern Iowa (Quad Cities, Cedar Rapids, Kalona and the English River), the Parkersburg–Athens Ohio River corridor, Charleston and Huntington, Washington County, Pennsylvania, and eastern Ohio counties including Belmont, Guernsey, Harrison, Jefferson, and Tuscarawas. The Des Plaines River near Russell, Illinois, has a new Flood Warning for minor flooding from this afternoon until further notice.

A separate local Flash Flood Warning this afternoon covers southwestern Suwannee County, Florida, with 2 to 3 inches already down. That is a North Florida urban and low-water-crossing desk, not the Slight Risk story.

Restoration read: yesterday’s water is already a ticket in Iowa, Ohio, West Virginia, and western Pennsylvania. Today’s new water, if it verifies, is more of the same corridor plus a standalone Florida polygon. Do not send the Oklahoma hail crew to the Ohio River without checking which county still has a warning.

Just hit

Saturday night’s Severe Thunderstorm Watches 670 (Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas), 671 (Colorado, Kansas), and 672 (Kansas, Missouri) are closed. Those are already on the books as wind and hail tickets across the central Plains and Lower Missouri Valley. Overnight and this morning’s Flash Flood Warnings along the Iowa–Illinois line and the Ohio River are extraction and drying work, not a new watch. This afternoon’s new work, if it verifies, is the Oklahoma wind corridor and High Plains hail cells under MD 2316.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS level	Status this afternoon
Central / eastern Oklahoma	Damaging wind 55–65 mph, hail	SPC Slight	Live outlook; no watch
Eastern CO / far western KS / SW NE	Large hail 1–2.5 in, isolated severe gusts	SPC Slight + MD 2316 (watch possible)	Isolated supercells favored
Ozarks to Ohio Valley	Isolated damaging gusts, leftover water	SPC Marginal; WPC Slight flood	Scattered plus aftermath
Northern High Plains / Black Hills	Flash flood on wet ground	WPC Slight excessive rainfall	Afternoon–overnight cells
SW Suwannee County, FL	Local flash flood	NWS Flash Flood Warning	Standalone polygon
Atlantic / EPAC vs. U.S. land	No U.S. landfalling tropical cyclone	NHC: Fay far east-Atlantic; Odalys and TD 17-E over open Pacific	Quiet on the mainland coast

What this means for restoration teams

Oklahoma wind at 55 to 65 mph is roof, siding, gutter, and tree-on-structure work. High Plains hail of 1 to 2.5 inches is shingle and auto work in a few counties, not a multi-state CAT. Midwest and Ohio Valley water from Saturday night is already inside some buildings. That mold clock started this morning, not this evening.

For teams near the Oklahoma Slight or the Colorado–Kansas MD: stage before the first warning, not after. Property owners should photograph damage in daylight if it is safe, call the carrier, and start extraction the same night if water is inside. For teams on the Iowa and Ohio River leftovers: you are already on yesterday’s tickets. Check which gauge is still in flood before you drive.

What this is not

This is not a regional derecho and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. Tropical Storm Fay is in the far eastern Atlantic near 34.4°N, 32.7°W and is not a U.S. land threat this afternoon. Tropical Storm Odalys and Tropical Depression Seventeen-E are over the eastern Pacific, well offshore. The work tonight, if it comes, will be scattered: a wind swath through an Oklahoma county, hail on the High Plains, leftover water in an Iowa or Ohio River town. That is the local-storm pattern this desk should staff.

Looking ahead

Monday’s SPC Day 2 Convective Outlook, issued 1137 AM CDT Sunday, is a Marginal Risk from Mississippi to the central and southern Appalachians. Official summary: a few instances of damaging gusts are possible across the central and southern Appalachians to northern and central Mississippi. Coverage is isolated to widely scattered. Shear is expected to stay weak. Watch the next Storm Tracker update rather than assuming today’s Slight is Monday’s story.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources, all date-stamped Sunday, September 20, 2026: NOAA Storm Prediction Center 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook; SPC current watches page (no watches valid as of 2013 UTC); Mesoscale Discussion 2316; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook updated 1602 UTC; National Hurricane Center public page as of 2120 UTC; National Weather Service watch/warning text including Pittsburgh, Charleston, Chicago, La Crosse, and Tallahassee products. Morning desk for this calendar day: Storm Updates: Oklahoma and High Plains Slight Risk — Sunday, September 20, 2026 (Morning).

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watches, MDs, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

September 20, 2026

Storm Updates: Kansas–Oklahoma Watch 670 + Midwest–Montana Flood Moderate — Saturday, September 19, 2026

This is a live Saturday afternoon snapshot of U.S. local-storm activity as of Saturday, September 19, 2026. The organized pulse is on the Central Plains cold front. The Storm Prediction Center 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook holds a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of the central Plains and central High Plains, covering about 56,800 square miles and nearly 2 million people in the Slight contour, with Wichita, Topeka, Lawrence, St. Joseph, and Salina inside the risk area. Severe Thunderstorm Watch 670 is in effect from 3:20 p.m. until 11:00 p.m. CDT for central into northeast Kansas, western into north-central Oklahoma, and the eastern Texas Panhandle.

These are county-scale thunderstorms and training rain, not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. Restoration exposure this afternoon and tonight is wind-driven roof and siding work, hail dents on the High Plains, trees on wires in the Southeast leftover cells, and interior water where WPC Moderate flood-risk storms stall over eastern Iowa, northern Illinois, northern Indiana, and southern Montana. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What is live this afternoon

Watch 670, issued 3:20 p.m. CDT Saturday, September 19, 2026, is the live convective watch. Primary threat language is scattered damaging winds with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible, plus isolated large hail to 1.5 inches. The watch box is drawn roughly along and 65 miles either side of a line from 115 miles west-southwest of Alva, Oklahoma, to 35 miles east-southeast of Manhattan, Kansas. SPC Mesoscale Discussion 2309, issued 2:34 p.m. CDT, had already flagged northwest Oklahoma into central and northeast Kansas for watch consideration; that discussion is now overtaken by the watch itself.

The 2000 UTC outlook summary is unchanged from mid-morning: thunderstorms with scattered severe wind gusts and large hail are possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the central Plains. A Marginal Risk still wraps Indianapolis, Columbus, Denver, Kansas City, and Atlanta. Ohio Valley convection has struggled to stay organized along a surging outflow boundary from north of Columbus into southern Illinois and Indiana; SPC trimmed the northern edge of the Marginal there after temperatures behind the outflow fell into the upper 70s.

The Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, updated 1602 UTC Saturday, September 19, 2026, holds a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall in portions of the Midwest — particularly eastern Iowa, northern Illinois, and northern Indiana — and a second Moderate Risk over portions of southern Montana. Guidance cited by WPC includes moderate-to-high probabilities of totals exceeding 5 inches in the better Midwest cores, with some low-end probabilities of 8 inches. Day 2 outlook language eases that to a Slight Risk over parts of the Midwest and Ohio Valley on Sunday.

Hotspot 1 — Central into northeast Kansas, western into north-central Oklahoma, eastern Texas Panhandle

This is the live watch. A cold front is dropping south from southwest Iowa through southwest Kansas and the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles. Ahead of it the airmass is seasonably moist and, by mid-afternoon, moderately unstable. SPC expects a few short-lived supercells early, then high-based storms and line segments capable of 60 to 75 mph gusts. MD 2309 noted temperatures near 100 F from Texas into southern Kansas, dewpoints near 60 F in the eastern Texas Panhandle and mid-60s toward Wichita, and most-probable peak gusts of 65–80 mph with hail of 1.00–1.75 inches.

Cities and counties to watch: Wichita, Topeka, Lawrence, Salina, Manhattan, and St. Joseph on the Missouri side of the Slight contour; Alva and northwest Oklahoma; the eastern Texas Panhandle. A 67 mph gust was already measured 3 miles south-southwest of Freedom in Woodward County, Oklahoma, at 2040 UTC.

Restoration read: wind first, hail second. Stage tarps, generators, and tree crews before dark across the watch. Photograph roofs in remaining daylight only if it is safe. Treat any ZIP that also sits under training rain as a water job by morning.

Hotspot 2 — Eastern Iowa, northern Illinois, northern Indiana flood Moderate

This is the water desk, not the watch. WPC’s 16Z update kept a Moderate Risk of 1-to-6-hour rainfall exceeding flash-flood guidance over eastern Iowa, northern Illinois, and northern Indiana. A surface low over the middle Mississippi Valley and enhanced forcing ahead of it support intense cores and high instantaneous rates. Urban streets, low-water crossings, and small streams fail first. Sunday’s Day 2 ERO drops this corridor to Slight, so tonight into Sunday morning is the higher-end window.

Restoration read: extraction and drying, not hail claims. If a cell trains over the same ZIP for more than an hour, treat it as an occupied-structure water job. Do not send the same crew to the Kansas watch and a Quad Cities flood call without checking which county actually has a warning now.

Hotspot 3 — Central High Plains and southern Montana

SPC holds the Slight Risk west into the central High Plains. Low-level easterly flow is holding upper-50s to low-60s dewpoints. A shortwave moving out of the Great Basin is expected to organize a loosely cellular band into a linear cluster, with hail early and wind later, and some indication the activity continues into western Kansas overnight. Preliminary LSRs already include 1.25-inch hail 5 miles north of Matheson in Elbert County, Colorado, at 2044 UTC, and measured gusts of 59 and 66 mph near Byers in Arapahoe County around 2003–2006 UTC.

Separately, WPC expanded the inherited Moderate excessive-rainfall risk over southern and southeast Montana, matching HREF/RRFS probabilities of rainfall exceeding 3 inches and low-end probabilities over 5 inches. That is a High Plains flood and debris-flow desk in burn scars and small drainages, not the Kansas watch.

Restoration read: Colorado and western Kansas are wind-and-hail tickets tonight. Southern Montana is water and mud. Do not conflate the two.

Just hit

SPC today’s storm reports (1200 UTC September 19 through the afternoon) show no tornadoes as of this desk. Hail: quarter-size near Rome in Floyd County, Georgia, at 1935 UTC; 1.25-inch north of Matheson, Colorado. Wind: trees and power lines down at Signal Mountain and South Pittsburg, Tennessee; trees and blocked roads in Etowah and Jackson Counties, Alabama; multiple trees down near Warm Springs and Highland Park, Georgia; 59–66 mph near Byers, Colorado; 67 mph near Freedom, Oklahoma. Those tree and wire reports are already tickets.

A morning Storm Tracker for this calendar day is already on the site: Storm Updates: Kansas Slight Risk + Midwest–Montana Flood Moderate — Saturday, September 19, 2026 (Morning). This afternoon post is the watch-and-LSR update, not a reprint of Friday.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS level	Status this afternoon
Central / NE Kansas, W / NC Oklahoma, E Texas Panhandle	Damaging wind 60–75 mph, isolated 1.5-inch hail	Slight + Watch 670 to 11 p.m. CDT	Live watch
Eastern Iowa / northern Illinois / northern Indiana	Flash flood, training heavy rain	WPC Moderate excessive rainfall	Tonight into Sunday morning
Southern / southeast Montana	Flash flood, 3–5 inch cores	WPC Moderate excessive rainfall	Today into tonight
Central High Plains / NE Colorado	Wind, marginally severe hail	Slight / Marginal	Live LSRs near Byers and Matheson
Ohio Valley (IN / OH / IL outflow)	Isolated damaging gusts	Marginal, trimmed on north edge	Poorly organized
Southern Appalachians / Southeast	Trees, 50–60 mph wet microbursts	Marginal / local SVR	Just-hit trees in TN, AL, GA
Atlantic vs. U.S. mainland	TD Six near the Azores; no U.S. land threat	No mainland tropical watch	Quiet on the coast

What this means for restoration teams

Wind at 60–75 mph inside Watch 670 is roof, siding, gutter, and tree-on-structure work from Wichita through Topeka and across northwest Oklahoma. Hail to 1.5 inches is a vehicle and roof-dent ticket, not a regional catastrophe. Midwest Moderate flood risk is wet drywall and a 24–48 hour mold clock if occupied structures take water. Southern Montana is the same water problem on different terrain.

For teams in or near Watch 670: stage before 5 p.m. CDT, not after the first warning. Property owners should photograph damage in daylight if it is safe, call the carrier, and start extraction the same night if water is inside. Southeast tree jobs from this afternoon’s Alabama, Georgia, and Tennessee cells are already on the board.

What this is not

This is not a regional derecho and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. Tropical Depression Six is several hundred miles southwest of the Azores with 35 mph winds and no coastal watches for the United States. The work tonight, if it verifies, will be scattered: a wind swath through a Kansas or Oklahoma county, a flooded intersection where Iowa or Illinois cells train, isolated hail on the High Plains, leftover trees in the Tennessee Valley. That is the local-storm pattern this desk should staff.

Looking ahead

Sunday’s SPC Day 2 outlook remains a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the central High Plains and southern Plains. WPC Day 2 excessive rainfall eases the Midwest corridor to Slight. Day 3 convective risk is Marginal. Later in the week WPC language flags a wetter pattern for the Southern High Plains and Rockies, and a frontal system toward the East midweek. Watch the next Storm Tracker rather than assuming Watch 670 is the last line of the weekend.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources dated Saturday, September 19, 2026: NOAA Storm Prediction Center 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook; Severe Thunderstorm Watch 670; Mesoscale Discussion 2309; SPC today’s local storm reports; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook updated 1602 UTC; National Hurricane Center advisories on Tropical Depression Six (Azores, no U.S. land threat). Morning desk on this calendar day: September 19 morning Storm Updates.

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watch, and LSRs, Watch 670 text, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

September 19, 2026

Storm Updates: Kansas–Missouri Flood Moderate, Plains–Midwest Marginal — Tuesday, September 15, 2026

This is a live Tuesday afternoon snapshot of local storm-type events across the United States as of Tuesday, September 15, 2026. The Storm Prediction Center 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook keeps a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms from the south-central Plains into parts of the Midwest. No convective watches are in effect. The organized story this afternoon is water: the Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook holds a Moderate Risk from northeastern Kansas into northwest Missouri, with a high-end Slight Risk wrapping the Kansas City metro and I-70 corridor.

These are county- and ZIP-scale thunderstorms, not a mainland hurricane landfall. Restoration exposure tonight is flash-flood water first, then isolated wind-driven roof and tree work where the front fires cells. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What is live this afternoon

SPC issued the 2000 UTC Day 1 outlook at 2:55 p.m. CDT Tuesday, September 15, 2026, valid through 7:00 a.m. CDT Wednesday. The categorical call is Marginal. Population centers listed in the risk area include Indianapolis, Kansas City, Wichita, St. Louis, and Toledo. Summary language: strong to locally severe thunderstorms may occur from the south-central Plains into parts of the Midwest this afternoon and evening, with at least isolated damaging wind gusts possible. SPC explicitly opted against a categorical upgrade. As of the SPC watches page update Tuesday afternoon, no watches are currently valid. The most recently issued watch was Tornado Watch 669 on Monday.

Mesoscale Discussion 2300, issued 1:59 p.m. CDT, covered the Texas Panhandle into central Kansas. Watch issuance probability was 20 percent. Language: thunderstorm coverage increasing; sporadic strong gusts, with a locally greater chance of 50–65 mph from northwest Oklahoma into south-central and east-central Kansas. Most probable peak wind up to 60 mph; hail up to 1.25 inches. A watch was not anticipated. By late afternoon the current-MCD page showed no mesoscale discussions in effect.

WPC’s Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, updated 1556 UTC Tuesday and valid 16 UTC Tuesday through 12 UTC Wednesday, is the higher-confidence overlay. Moderate Risk covers portions of northeastern Kansas into northwest Missouri and clips far southeast Nebraska along the Missouri River. Guidance supports 2–3 inch areal averages and locally 3–5 inches from just north of Topeka toward St. Joseph. Flash-flood guidance is already low after morning rain. A high-end Slight Risk surrounds that core, including the Kansas City metro and I-70. A separate Slight Risk remains over eastern Arizona and western New Mexico on monsoon-style cells.

National Hurricane Center: no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic. Tropical Depression Fifteen-E is weakening well out in the eastern Pacific (about 15.7°N, 125.0°W, 30 mph). Post-tropical Norbert is a remnant low far from U.S. land. Neither threatens the U.S. mainland this afternoon.

Hotspot 1 — Northeast Kansas into northwest Missouri

This is the live flood desk. WPC broadened the Moderate Risk on the 16Z update to match an uptick in amounts and coverage near the Kansas–Nebraska–northwest Missouri juncture. Cold front slides southeast; best heavy-rain window is late afternoon through overnight as the low-level jet injects moisture along a boundary-parallel flow. Neighborhood probabilities for greater than 1 inch per hour have run 40–70 percent for several hours in the core.

Cities and counties to watch: Topeka and northeastern Kansas counties north of I-70; St. Joseph and neighboring northwest Missouri counties; far southeast Nebraska along the Missouri River; the Kansas City metro on the high-end Slight, not inside the Moderate core but close enough that a southward shift matters.

Restoration read: water first. Stage extractors and drying kits for basements, slab leaks, and low-water crossings that fail after dark. Morning rain already lowered flash-flood guidance. Photograph interiors only if it is safe. Do not treat Kansas City the same as St. Joseph without checking which county has a warning now.

Hotspot 2 — South-central Kansas, northern Missouri, and the cold-front wind line

SPC’s 20Z update said locally greater potential for a couple of damaging or severe wind gusts may exist across south-central Kansas and northern Missouri where guidance shows greater storm coverage on the cold front. Enhanced deep-layer shear is displaced north of the boundary; better thermodynamics sit farther south. That split is why the outlook stayed Marginal. Earlier MCD 2300 language pointed at northwest Oklahoma into south-central and east-central Kansas for 50–65 mph gusts if cells organize.

Cities and counties to watch: Wichita and south-central Kansas; northwest Oklahoma; northern Missouri counties along and north of the front; scattered cells from the Texas Panhandle east-northeast toward Illinois as convective temperatures are reached.

Restoration read: isolated wind, not a line you staff like a Slight-plus-watch night. Tarps and tree crews if a Severe Thunderstorm Warning verifies. Hail is secondary and limited by warm temperatures aloft.

Hotspot 3 — Four Corners / Southwest rain and leftover Plains wind tickets

Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms had formed across the Four Corners by about 1930 UTC. SPC notes weak buoyancy in a deep, well-mixed boundary layer — enough for an isolated strong to perhaps severe cell, not a concentrated severe area. WPC keeps a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over eastern Arizona and the western half of New Mexico, with locally 2–3 inches in the hardest terrain.

Yesterday’s organized wind corridor is already tickets. SPC storm reports for the 1200 UTC September 14–15 window include measured gusts of 87 mph near Guide Rock, Nebraska; 83 mph near Smith Center, Kansas; 77 mph near Amy, Kansas; 76 mph near Beatrice, Nebraska; 75 mph near Elmwood, Nebraska; plus trees and power lines in Cass and Lancaster Counties, Nebraska, Clarinda and Ames, Iowa, and other High Plains points. Today’s 1200 UTC-forward LSR page still showed no tornado, hail, or wind reports as of this afternoon scan. That can change after dark.

Restoration read: Southwest is flash-flood and outflow in terrain. Nebraska–Kansas–Iowa wind from Monday night is roof, siding, and tree-on-drop work already on the books.

Just hit

Monday evening’s Tornado Watch 669 (western into central Iowa, far northwest Missouri, eastern Nebraska, effective 4:50 p.m. until midnight CDT Monday) is closed. The gust and tree reports listed above are that corridor. Iowa river and urban water from the last two days can still be in the channel even if today’s new Moderate Risk sits farther southwest. Today’s new work, if it verifies, is flash flooding on the Kansas–Missouri Moderate Risk plus isolated wind along the front. No new U.S. mainland tropical landfall.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS level	Status this afternoon
NE Kansas / NW Missouri / SE Nebraska	Flash flood, training heavy rain	WPC Moderate excessive rainfall	Live flood overlay; evening peak
Kansas City / I-70 corridor	Heavy rain, urban flooding	WPC high-end Slight	Watch the southward shift
South-central KS / N Missouri / NW OK	Isolated damaging wind	SPC Marginal; MCD 2300 watch unlikely	No watch; scattered cells
Plains–Midwest Marginal envelope	Isolated wind, lightning	SPC Marginal (~166,470 sq mi)	Disorganized vs Monday night
Eastern AZ / western NM	Flash flood, strong outflow	WPC Slight	Afternoon–overnight terrain cells
NE / KS / IA just-hit wind	Roof, trees, service drops	Monday Watch 669 closed	Aftermath tickets
Atlantic / Gulf vs. U.S. mainland	No landfalling tropical cyclone	NHC quiet on the mainland	Quiet

What this means for restoration teams

Water on a Moderate Risk with already-wet ground is wet drywall and a 24–48 hour mold clock, plus vehicles in flooded crossings. Isolated 50–65 mph gusts are roof, siding, gutter, and tree-on-structure work in a single county, not a regional wind event. Monday night’s 70–87 mph measured gusts in southern Nebraska and north-central Kansas are the jobs already called in.

For teams near Topeka, St. Joseph, and Kansas City: stage extraction before the overnight training window, not after the first flooded intersection. Property owners should photograph damage if it is safe, call the carrier, and start extraction the same night if water is inside. Turn around, don’t drown.

What this is not

This is not a regional derecho and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. SPC did not upgrade to Slight. No convective watch is out this afternoon. Tropical Depression Fifteen-E and remnant Norbert are Pacific and offshore. The work tonight, if it comes, will be scattered: a flooded county in northeast Kansas or northwest Missouri, an isolated wind swath on the front, leftover tree jobs from Monday night. That is the local-storm pattern this desk should staff.

Looking ahead

SPC Day 2 remains generally quieter on organized severe over the central United States. A Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms is flagged Wednesday morning across the Great Salt Lake / Salt Lake City vicinity. Along the remnant front from the Ohio Valley into the lower Missouri Valley, scattered strong storms are possible Wednesday afternoon in weak shear, without a 5 percent severe-wind area on the 0600 UTC Day 2 package. Day 3 language available this afternoon showed no severe thunderstorms. Watch the next Storm Tracker update rather than assuming tonight’s flood core is the last line of the week.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources dated Tuesday, September 15, 2026: NOAA Storm Prediction Center 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook (issued 2:55 p.m. CDT); SPC Current Watches page (no watches valid; last watch 669); Mesoscale Discussion 2300; SPC storm reports for 20260914 and 20260915; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook updated 1556 UTC; National Hurricane Center public page as of 21:06 UTC. Morning desk on the same calendar day: Storm Updates, Tuesday morning, September 15, 2026.

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watches, MCDs, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

September 15, 2026