This is a live Sunday afternoon snapshot of U.S. local-storm activity as of Sunday, September 27, 2026. The organized severe desk is quiet. The Storm Prediction Center 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook states no severe thunderstorm areas are forecast and organized severe storms are not expected through early Monday. No convective watches are valid. Restoration exposure this afternoon is leftover nor’easter wind and water on the coastal Northeast, isolated gusty outflow from north Texas cells, and urban ponding where WPC keeps a Slight excessive-rainfall risk from New Jersey through southern New England.
These are county-scale thunderstorms and a fading coastal cyclone, not a mainland hurricane landfall. Conditions change. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.
What is live this afternoon
SPC issued the 2000 UTC (2:57 p.m. CDT) Day 1 outlook with the categorical line removed. The morning Marginal over western Nebraska and the Black Hills was taken off earlier; this cycle made no further change. Isolated convection was ongoing across portions of central and north Texas near 1945 UTC. SPC notes an isolated strong or damaging gust cannot be ruled out given steep low-level lapse rates and moderate buoyancy, but weak lower-tropospheric flow, limited effective shear, and poor mid-level lapse rates keep the severe probability under 5 percent.
A few additional thunderstorms remain possible late this afternoon and evening along a diffuse surface boundary from north Texas into southern Oklahoma. An occluded cyclone continues to weaken near the northern Mid-Atlantic coast, with elevated convection and isolated lightning possible to its northeast across southeast New England. Elevated storms over central South Dakota this morning were described as already past peak.
Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (valid 12 UTC Sunday through 12 UTC Monday) holds a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall for parts of the coastal Northeast — New Jersey, southern New York, and southern to central New England. Additional rainfall of 1 to 3 inches, locally heavier, is the language over the NYC metro into eastern Massachusetts. A Marginal Risk covers parts of Upstate New York and central New England, plus a separate Marginal from the Texas Hill Country into south-central Oklahoma. Isolated low-end flood potential is noted over portions of northern Arizona as moisture associated with Hurricane Polo begins to lift north of the Mexican coast.
High Wind Warnings that covered Eastern Monmouth and Coastal Ocean Counties in New Jersey and Long Island and adjacent Connecticut zones were in effect until noon EDT Sunday. Those products have expired. Tree-and-wire work from the overnight gusts is a just-hit desk, not a live warning desk.
Hotspot 1 — Coastal Northeast flood slight, wind fade
The live organized threat here is water, not a new severe watch. The slow-moving nor’easter lingering near northern New Jersey and eastern Long Island is still funneling moisture across southern New England. Instability is low, so instantaneous rates are not the main story. Saturated soils from coastal inundation and prior heavy rain keep urban streets, poor drainage, and small streams in play.
Cities and counties to watch: New York City and Long Island; Eastern Monmouth and Coastal Ocean Counties, New Jersey; New London and Middlesex Counties, Connecticut; eastern Massachusetts including the Boston metro. Restoration read: extraction and drying from last night’s wind-driven rain, plus ponding calls if the Slight Risk verifies. Photograph roofs in remaining daylight only if it is safe. Do not treat this as a new High Wind Warning — those expired at noon EDT.
Hotspot 2 — North Texas into southern Oklahoma scatter
This is the only convective corridor SPC is still talking about on the afternoon update. Isolated cells were already up over central and north Texas mid-afternoon. The same diffuse boundary can support a few more storms into southern Oklahoma this evening. Gusty outflow is the listed hazard. Hail and tornado probabilities are not highlighted.
Cities and counties to watch: the Dallas–Fort Worth periphery, Waco and Temple corridors, Wichita Falls, and counties along the Red River into southern Oklahoma. WPC’s Marginal excessive-rainfall pocket from the Texas Hill Country into south-central Oklahoma is the flood overlay on the same air mass. Restoration read: isolated wind and brief heavy rain. Staff local Severe Thunderstorm Warnings if they fire; do not staff a regional outbreak that SPC has already declined to draw.
Hotspot 3 — High Plains leftover and northern Arizona moisture
The morning Marginal for large hail over western Nebraska and the Black Hills is gone. SPC says the central South Dakota convection has already peaked and that any overnight elevated storms from western South Dakota into North Dakota carry only a low isolated-hail threat. NWS Aberdeen did issue a Severe Thunderstorm Warning this morning for parts of Stanley, Sully, and Dewey Counties, South Dakota — 60 mph gusts and quarter-size hail, radar indicated, until 10:00 a.m. CDT. That product is expired.
Northern Arizona is a low-end flood mention only, as flow turns southwest ahead of a trough digging into California and begins to draw moisture associated with Hurricane Polo. Polo itself is a Baja California Sur hurricane, not a U.S. mainland landfall. Restoration read: check whether any local flash-flood warning is actually live before rolling a crew. The outlook language is not a warning.
Just hit
SPC today’s storm-report page for the 1200 UTC Sunday through 1159 UTC Monday window showed no tornado, hail, or wind LSRs as of this afternoon scan. The morning desk already logged overnight Comanche County, Oklahoma wind and quarter hail from Saturday night. Mid-Atlantic High Wind Warnings that ran through noon EDT Sunday are the other just-hit pile: trees, service drops, and coastal water intrusion on the Jersey Shore, Long Island, and southern New England.
That is ticket work already on the books, not a new watch. Hurricane Nolo remains south of the Hawaiian Islands and is not a CONUS landfall. Hurricane Polo is a Mexico / Baja desk. Tropical Depression Fay is well west-southwest of the Azores. None of those systems is a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall this afternoon.
Pulse table
| Region | Main threats | SPC / NWS level | Status this afternoon |
|---|---|---|---|
| Coastal Northeast (NJ / NYC / southern New England) | Urban flood, leftover wind damage | WPC Slight excessive rainfall; High Wind Warnings expired noon EDT | Live flood slight / wind fade |
| North Texas / southern Oklahoma | Isolated gusty outflow, brief heavy rain | SPC no severe area; WPC Marginal flood (Hill Country–south-central OK) | Scattered cells |
| Western NE / Black Hills / central SD | Isolated hail earlier; now quiet | Morning MRGL removed; SVR warning expired 10 a.m. CDT | Quiet |
| Northern Arizona | Isolated heavy rain | WPC low-end mention | Quiet / watch local products |
| CONUS Atlantic / Gulf coast | No landfalling hurricane | NHC systems offshore (Fay, Polo, Nolo) | Quiet on the mainland |
What this means for restoration teams
Sunday afternoon is a close-out and water day, not a chase day. Northeast shops should finish tree-and-roof tickets from the expired High Wind Warnings and stay ready for urban water calls if the Slight Risk trains on already-wet ground. North Texas and southern Oklahoma shops watch local warnings only. High Plains shops can stand down the morning hail Marginal.
Wind that already happened is siding, gutter, and tree-on-structure work. New water on a Slight Risk is wet drywall and a 24–48 hour mold clock. Photograph in daylight if it is safe, call the carrier, and start extraction the same night if water is inside.
What this is not
This is not a regional derecho and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. SPC has no severe thunderstorm area and no watch. Polo is Baja. Nolo is south of Hawaii. Fay is mid-Atlantic open water. Do not invent a named-CAT desk on the CONUS from those tracks.
Looking ahead
SPC Day 2 (Monday) also has no severe thunderstorm areas forecast. Severe thunderstorm probability remains low. WPC discussion language for Monday raises a Moderate excessive-rainfall risk over parts of the Southwest, Great Basin, and central and southern Rockies as Polo moisture is drawn inland — that is tomorrow’s flood overlay, not today’s. Watch the next Storm Tracker update rather than assuming Sunday’s quiet line holds after 12 UTC Monday.
Sources and how to verify
Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center Sep 27, 2026 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook (Chalmers/Guyer); SPC current watches page updated 1705 UTC Sunday (no watches valid); SPC today’s storm reports (20260927 1200–1159 UTC window); Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook updated 0812 UTC Sunday; NWS warning text including expired High Wind Warnings (Mount Holly and Upton) and the expired Aberdeen Severe Thunderstorm Warning; National Hurricane Center public products for Polo, Nolo, and Fay. Morning desk for this calendar day: Storm Updates: High Plains Hail Marginal, Nor’easter Wind Fade — Sunday, September 27, 2026 (Morning).
Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watch, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay.
Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.
