Tag: severe weather

Storm Updates: West TX Flood — Oct 15 Morning

Tropical: None · Severe: Marginal · Flood: Moderate

What Changed

SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook (0100 UTC / 7:49 PM CDT Thursday, October 15, 2026, valid 160100Z–161200Z) holds a Marginal Risk for parts of southern Indiana into Ohio. A small storm cluster continues across southern IN near the surface trough and warm front; locally damaging wind and a brief tornado remain possible this evening before increasing low-level stability diminishes the threat. No category change from the prior version of this morning desk; prior Slight Risk has closed.
WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 1601 UTC / 12:01 PM EDT Thursday, October 15, 2026, valid 16Z Thu–12Z Fri) continues the Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall across portions of West Texas (Big Bend / Lower Trans-Pecos / Stockton Plateau into Concho Valley, along and south of I-10 east of the Davis Mountains). High neighborhood probabilities above 70 percent for amounts exceeding 5 inches remain centered in the Moderate area. Slight Risk covers broader southwest Texas into southern Oklahoma. Category unchanged.
NWS residual activity: Tornado Warning earlier for east central Knox and central Daviess Counties in southwestern Indiana (radar-indicated). Severe Thunderstorm Warnings residual for portions of northwestern Johnson, southeastern Parker, southwestern Tarrant and northeastern Hood Counties in Texas (near Fort Worth) and for central Knox and Daviess Counties in Indiana. Flash Flood Warning residual for southeastern Nolan and southwestern Taylor Counties in west central Texas. Flood Watches continue through Friday morning for much of west-central and western Texas. No convective watches currently valid (most recent was Watch 685, expired).
No tropical storm or hurricane watches or warnings on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America. Atlantic basin remains quiet with no named systems and no formation expected in the next 7 days. Eastern Pacific Hurricane Trudy (intensifying, Hurricane Warnings for Mexican offshore waters) and Tropical Storm Simon remain offshore Mexico with no U.S. land or Gulf threat. Tropical lane unchanged.
Severe lane holds Marginal as residual warnings confirm the earlier threat over southwestern Indiana and residual Texas activity near Fort Worth. Flood lane remains Moderate with residual Flash Flood Warning in west central Texas and ongoing Flood Watches. No new watches issued.

Live Status

As of the Thursday morning desk update, October 15, 2026 (approximately 8:13 PM PDT / 10:13 PM CDT / 0313Z October 16), two open lanes remain active. The dominant restoration ticket remains the WPC Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall over West Texas. Anomalous October moisture (PWATs near record seasonal values, +2 to +3 standard deviations) and a southward-progressing cold front continue to support heavy convective rainfall, with the strongest signal for areal averages of 3–5 inches (local higher, pockets of >5 inches) along and south of I-10 east of the Davis Mountains into the Lower Pecos River basin (Sanderson to north of Del Rio) and northward into the Concho Valley. Residual Flash Flood Warning activity and active Flood Watches cover west-central and western Texas. A more immediate high-end Slight threat exists in northwest Texas where soils are saturated and FFGs are low.

SPC Day 1 now holds only a Marginal Risk over parts of southern Indiana into Ohio for the remainder of the period. A small storm cluster has been ongoing across southern IN near the intersection of a surface trough and warm front. As a vigorous mid/upper-level shortwave trough and deepening surface low move across the Great Lakes this evening, the warm front continues northward. Modest buoyancy allows maintenance of convection through parts of OH into the Lower Great Lakes, though surface-based buoyancy becomes increasingly scant. In the short term, locally damaging wind was possible with the strongest storms, and favorable low-level shear supported a brief-tornado threat that is diminishing as convection becomes elevated. Residual Tornado Warning and Severe Thunderstorm Warnings confirmed the threat over southwestern Indiana earlier. North/West Texas has a more limited severe potential along the outflow-augmented cold front with mainly stronger wind gusts possible but organized severe expected to remain limited; residual Severe Thunderstorm Warning near Fort Worth. Overall storm intensity is expected to wane with increasing low-level stability later this evening. No watches are currently valid.

Pulse Table

Lane	Status	Notes (as of ~8:13 PM PDT / 10:13 PM CDT / 0313Z 16 Oct 2026)
Tropical	None	No named systems threatening U.S. land or Gulf. Atlantic quiet; no formation expected next 7 days. Pacific: Hurricane Trudy (intensifying toward Mexico) and TS Simon offshore, no U.S. impact. Hurricane Warnings in Mexican offshore waters only.
Severe	Marginal	SPC Day 1 Marginal Risk southern IN into OH (localized strong/damaging gusts and possible brief tornado this evening). Prior Slight reduced. Residual Tornado Warning Knox/Daviess IN; Severe Thunderstorm Warnings IN and residual TX (Fort Worth area). No watches valid. Threat diminishing after sunset.
Flood	Moderate	WPC Day 1 Moderate Risk West Texas (Big Bend / Stockton / Lower Pecos / Concho). Slight broader TX into southern OK. Residual FFW Nolan/Taylor Counties TX. Flood Watches through Friday morning west-central TX and residual OK. Near-term high-end Slight northwest TX.
Other	Wind / Fire	High Wind Warnings AZ/NM/TX mountains and CA (gusts 50–70 mph). Red Flag Warnings Sierra and central/northern CA. Non-severe products. Separate from convective restoration.

Restoration Read

Primary restoration ticket is water and flash flooding over West Texas under the Moderate ERO, with potential for considerable flash flooding on complex terrain, low-water crossings, arroyos, and urban poor drainage where training occurs under elevated PWATs and frontal convergence. Residual saturated ground and Flood Watches continue across Oklahoma from the prior Moderate axis. Overnight and ongoing wind damage claims remain possible from 60 mph gusts in northwest Texas and residual Severe Thunderstorm Warnings. The Midwest Marginal supports isolated tree, power line, or minor structural wind claims as storms continue this evening near the warm front; tornado claims would be brief and localized if they materialize, with residual Tornado Warning confirming the radar-indicated threat over southwestern Indiana. No tropical surge or coastal claims. Standard posture: verify county-level Flood Warnings and Watches before deploying; Turn around, don’t drown on flooded roads. Southwest High Wind and Red Flag products are separate non-convective events and do not drive the same restoration response.

Rising queries

Trends unreachable.

Looking Ahead One Day

SPC Day 2 outlook places a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over a portion of the Mid-Atlantic for Friday afternoon and evening (scattered damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado). WPC Day 2 continues a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall across portions of West Texas as the front progresses, with the heavy rain threat lingering into early Friday. No tropical development indicated for the U.S. coast or Gulf.

Sources: SPC Day 1 Outlook (spc.noaa.gov, 0100 UTC update), WPC Day 1 ERO discussion (wpc.ncep.noaa.gov, 1601 UTC update), NWS WWA summary including residual Tornado Warning, Severe Thunderstorm Warnings and Flash Flood Warning (weather.gov/wwamap), SPC current watches page (no watches valid). Previous desk: prior version of this morning pulse. Updated in place on slug quiet-pulse-2026-10-15-morning.

Informational only — not an official warning. This is a morning desk summary of public National Weather Service, Storm Prediction Center, Weather Prediction Center, and National Hurricane Center products as of approximately 8:13 PM PDT on October 15, 2026. Always confirm with the latest official forecasts and local authorities. Turn around, don’t drown.

October 15, 2026

Storm Updates: Oklahoma Moderate Flood — Oct 14

Tropical: None · Severe: Slight · Flood: Moderate

What Changed

Compared with the morning desk, SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook (0100 UTC / 7:47 PM CDT Wednesday, October 14, 2026, valid 150100Z–151200Z) continues the Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of the southern Plains. No category change. Linear segments along the cold front continue producing damaging wind gusts into the late evening across southwest Oklahoma and west/northwest Texas under Watch 685.
Severe Thunderstorm Watch #685 remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT / 0400 UTC October 15 for portions of southwest Oklahoma and west/northwest Texas. Mesoscale Discussion 2377 (issued ~0835 PM CDT) and subsequent status messages note a well-defined QLCS with bowing segment and embedded mesovortex advancing along the Red River Valley, supporting a locally greater risk for damaging/severe wind gusts and a brief tornado. Active Severe Thunderstorm Warnings continue with radar-indicated gusts to 60–80 mph as of late evening.
WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 0020 UTC Thursday, October 15, 2026) maintains the Moderate Risk across portions of Oklahoma into the Red River Valley of Texas. Record October PWAT of 2.23 inches at OUN continues to support efficient rates. Additional rainfall of 3–5 inches (local maxima toward 8 inches) remains possible on top of already observed 3–11 inch totals, with highest concern for the Oklahoma City metro and I-40 corridor. Category unchanged.
NWS Norman maintains multiple Flash Flood Warnings and Flood Warnings across the Oklahoma City metro (Oklahoma, Canadian, Cleveland and adjacent counties) and western/central Oklahoma. Flood Watches continue through Thursday afternoon. No tropical storm or hurricane watches or warnings on the U.S. coast or Gulf. Atlantic quiet; Eastern Pacific Tropical Storm Simon (weakening) and Tropical Storm Trudy remain offshore Mexico with no U.S. impact.
Preliminary SPC LSRs through late evening include continued wind damage reports in northwest Texas and southwest Oklahoma (gusts 60–65 mph, sheet metal, roof damage), earlier tornado near Fort Stockton TX, and hail to 1.75 inches near Crowell TX. No new category shifts.

Live Status

As of the Wednesday afternoon desk, October 14, 2026 (approximately 9:14 PM PDT / 11:14 PM CDT / 0414Z October 15), the dominant threat remains the Moderate Risk excessive rainfall over central Oklahoma and the Red River Valley, with training convection under anomalous precipitable water. SPC Slight Risk and Watch 685 support organized severe potential this evening into the late hours across southwest Oklahoma and west/northwest Texas, with linear/QLCS mode producing damaging winds. Active Severe Thunderstorm Warnings continue. Flash Flood Warnings remain live across the Oklahoma City metro and western Oklahoma.

Hotspots

Central Oklahoma / Red River Valley (flood): WPC Moderate Risk. Multi-round training thunderstorms along the outflow boundary and front. High-resolution guidance continues elevated probabilities for additional 3–5 inches (local maxima toward 8 inches) on top of the 3–11 inches already observed, especially along the I-40 corridor west of Oklahoma City and across the metro. Record PWAT values support efficient rainfall rates. Active Flash Flood Warnings and Flood Warnings covering the Oklahoma City metro with reports of widespread flooding of streets, underpasses, and low-lying areas. Flood Watches through Thursday afternoon.

Southwest Oklahoma / west and northwest Texas (severe): SPC Slight Risk under Watch 685 (until 11 PM CDT). Linear segments and QLCS along the front are producing damaging wind gusts (radar-indicated 60–80 mph) this evening, with the threat spreading northeast. Effective shear supports organization. Tornado threat remains low but non-zero (brief QLCS possible per MD 2377). Preliminary tornado report 3 NE Fort Stockton, Pecos County, TX earlier today; hail to 1.75 inches near Crowell, TX and multiple wind damage reports in west/northwest Texas and southwest Oklahoma.

Ohio Valley residual: SPC Marginal Risk for isolated damaging wind gusts with residual convection from southern Kentucky into the northern Tennessee Valley and southern Ohio Valley. Secondary to the Plains focus. Tree damage reports received earlier in Ohio and West Virginia.

Just Hit

Overnight and early-morning rainfall produced areal averages of 3–4 inches across central Oklahoma west-southwest into the southeastern Texas Panhandle, with local totals of 6–8+ inches west of Oklahoma City and reports reaching 9–11 inches in western counties (near Elk City, Hinton, Okarche corridor). Media and radar confirmed widespread flash flooding in the Oklahoma City metro. Today’s preliminary LSRs include a tornado 3 NE Fort Stockton (Pecos County, TX), hail to 1.75 inches 4 SW Crowell (Foard County, TX), wind gusts to 75 mph in Martin County, TX, power lines down in Midland County, TX, roof and sheet metal damage in northwest Texas, and tree damage in Ohio and West Virginia.

Pulse Table

Lane	Status	Notes (as of ~9:14 PM PDT / 11:14 PM CDT / 0414Z 15 Oct 2026)
Tropical	None	No named systems threatening U.S. land or Gulf. Atlantic quiet. Pacific: TS Simon (weakening) and TS Trudy offshore Mexico, no U.S. impact.
Severe	Slight	SPC Day 1 Slight Risk southern Plains. Watch 685 (SW OK / W-NW TX) valid until 11 PM CDT. QLCS/linear segments producing damaging winds this evening. Active SVR warnings. Primary: damaging wind / large hail; brief tornado possible.
Flood	Moderate	WPC Day 1 Moderate ERO central OK / Red River Valley TX. Active FFWs/Flood Warnings OKC metro and west OK. Record PWAT 2.23″ OUN. Additional 3–5″ possible on already 3–11″ totals. Flood Watches thru Thu.

Restoration Read

Water tickets dominate under the Moderate Risk and active Flash Flood/Flood Warnings. Extraction, drying, and access work continues in central and western Oklahoma, including the Oklahoma City metro, and residual areas of southwestern Texas. Evening severe potential under the SPC Slight Risk and Watch 685 adds hail and wind claims if line segments organize further across southwest Oklahoma and northwest Texas. No tropical surge or coastal claims. Standard Plains posture: verify county-level warnings before deploying; do not staff as a hurricane response. Turn around, don’t drown remains the immediate public message on flooded roads.

What This Is Not

This is not a Quiet Pulse. SPC Slight Risk, Severe Thunderstorm Watch 685, and WPC Moderate Risk remain in effect. No U.S. tropical watches or warnings. No named storm hub update required this run.

Looking Ahead One Day

SPC Day 2 outlook carries only a Marginal Risk over the mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. The multi-day heavy rain window continues into Thursday under residual moisture and frontal progression. Monitor for additional Flash Flood Warnings as training develops overnight into Thursday, and for Watch 685 status through 11 PM CDT.

Rising queries

Trends unreachable. Residual public interest centers on Oklahoma City flooding, flash flood warnings, and severe thunderstorms across the Plains.

Sources

SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook (0100 UTC / 7:47 PM CDT October 14, 2026): spc.noaa.gov. SPC Current Watches (Watch 685): spc.noaa.gov/products/watch. SPC Mesoscale Discussions: spc.noaa.gov/products/md. WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook: wpc.ncep.noaa.gov. NWS Watches/Warnings: weather.gov. SPC Today’s Storm Reports: spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports. Morning desk: Storm Updates: Oklahoma Moderate Flood — Oct 14 Morning.

Informational only — not an official warning. This is an afternoon desk summary of public National Weather Service, Storm Prediction Center, Weather Prediction Center, and National Hurricane Center products as of approximately 9:14 PM PDT on October 14, 2026. Always confirm with the latest official forecasts.

October 14, 2026

Storm Updates: Oklahoma Moderate Flood — Oct 14 Morning

Tropical: None · Severe: Slight · Flood: Moderate

What Changed

Compared with the prior version of this morning desk and the October 13 afternoon pulse (Slight severe / Slight flood), the WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook continues the Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall across portions of Oklahoma into the Red River Valley of Texas (latest discussion 0020 UTC / 7:20 PM CDT October 14, valid through 12Z October 15). Greatest probabilities for additional 3”/5”/8” remain centered on central Oklahoma including the Oklahoma City metro. Category unchanged.
SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook updated 0100 UTC / 7:47 PM CDT Wednesday, October 14, 2026 (valid 150100Z–151200Z) maintains the Slight Risk across parts of the southern Plains. Primary evening threat remains severe wind gusts from linear segments along the cold front in northwest Texas into southern and eastern Oklahoma, with a marginal residual into the Ozarks and southern Ohio/Tennessee Valleys. No category change.
Severe Thunderstorm Watch #685 remains in effect until 0400 UTC / 11:00 PM CDT October 15 for portions of southwest Oklahoma and west/northwest Texas. Status reports and Mesoscale Discussion 2377 confirm the severe weather threat continues, including a QLCS with bowing segment and embedded mesovortex along the Red River Valley. Primary threats: damaging winds (isolated to 75 mph), large hail (isolated to 2 inches), tornado or two possible. Active Severe Thunderstorm Warnings with 60–80 mph wind threats continue in northwest Texas and southwestern Oklahoma as of late evening.
Multiple Flash Flood Warnings and Flood Warnings remain active from NWS Norman across the Oklahoma City metro and western/central Oklahoma (3–6+ inches already fallen, locally 4–11 inches west near Elk City/I-40 and Canadian/Kingfisher counties), plus residual FFWs in northwestern Texas (Lubbock) and parts of Ohio/West Virginia. Flood Watches continue through Thursday afternoon for much of Oklahoma and northern Texas. Record October PWAT 2.23 inches at 12Z OUN. Canadian River near Bridgeport forecast upgraded to major flooding earlier.
No tropical storm or hurricane watches or warnings on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America. No named tropical cyclone threatens or has just hit U.S. land. Atlantic quiet; Eastern Pacific Hurricane Simon (weakening) and Tropical Storm Trudy remain offshore Mexico with no U.S. impact.

Pulse Table

Lane	Status	Notes (as of ~9:12 PM PDT / 11:12 PM CDT / 0412Z 15 Oct 2026)
Tropical	None	No named systems threatening U.S. land or Gulf. Atlantic quiet. Pacific: Hurricane Simon (weakening) and TS Trudy offshore Mexico, no U.S. impact.
Severe	Slight	SPC Day 1 Slight Risk southern Plains (0100 UTC / 7:47 PM CDT update). Watch 685 (SW OK / W-NW TX until 11 PM CDT) still live; QLCS bow and mesovortex per MD 2377. Active SVRs with 60–80 mph winds, hail, tornado possible in TX/OK. Marginal wind risk Ozarks and Ohio/Tennessee Valleys.
Flood	Moderate	WPC Day 1 Moderate ERO central OK into Red River Valley TX. Active FFWs/Flood Warnings in OKC metro, western OK, residual TX and WV/OH. Flood Watches through Thursday. Record PWATs. Additional 3–5″ possible (local 8″) on top of observed 3–11″ totals. Major flooding forecast on Canadian River.

SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook

The latest SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook, updated 0100 UTC / 7:47 PM CDT Wednesday, October 14, 2026, and valid 150100Z through 151200Z, maintains a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of the southern Plains. The summary states that thunderstorms with severe wind gusts will be possible this evening across parts of the southern Plains. A marginal wind-damage threat will also be possible in parts of the Ozarks, and from the southern Ohio Valley into the northern Tennessee Valley.

A mid-level shortwave trough is moving through west Texas within southwesterly flow aloft. At the surface, a cold front is located from northwest Texas extending east-northeastward into southern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. Thunderstorms are ongoing near the front in northwest Texas and are expected to continue east-northeastward along the boundary this evening. Although moderate instability is analyzed over parts of north Texas, instability is weaker near the boundary. RAP forecast soundings indicate 40 to 50 knots of southwesterly mid-level flow supporting organized thunderstorms. Predominant mode is linear; more intense line segments could produce damaging wind gusts. The threat may persist into the late evening as the line moves through southern and eastern Oklahoma. A marginal threat may continue overnight across part of the Ozarks. Severe Thunderstorm Watch 685 remains in effect until 11 PM CDT, with Mesoscale Discussion 2377 highlighting continued QLCS risk along the Red River Valley including possible brief tornado.

WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook

The Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook maintains a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall across portions of Oklahoma into the Red River Valley of Texas, valid through 12Z Thursday, October 15, 2026 (updated ~0020 UTC). The greatest probabilities for exceeding the 3-inch, 5-inch, and 8-inch thresholds remain positioned over central Oklahoma, with the Oklahoma City metro a notable focus. High-resolution guidance continues to indicate widespread areas of additional 3–5 inches of rain with local maxima upwards of 8 inches on top of already observed totals of 3–8 inches (locally higher, up to 11 inches in some western areas) in parts of the region.

An anomalously moist environment is in place with plentiful Gulf moisture and influence from offshore Hurricane Simon, producing precipitable water values near or past record levels for October. The 12Z OUN sounding showed 2.23 inches, the highest recorded for the month during the period of record. Overnight and morning storms produced areal average estimated rainfall totals of 3 to 4 inches (locally 6–8 inches and higher) from central Oklahoma west-southwest into the southeastern Texas Panhandle. Coordination with the Norman forecast office supports the Moderate Risk from southwestern Oklahoma and the Red River basin through central Oklahoma and into the Tulsa metro area. Flood Watches remain in effect through Thursday afternoon for much of Oklahoma and adjacent northern Texas. A Slight Risk extends into the Ohio Valley and Appalachians. Life-threatening flash flooding has been reported across the Oklahoma City metro, with major flooding forecast on the Canadian River near Bridgeport.

Active Watches, Warnings, and Reports

As of late evening Wednesday (approximately 9:12 PM PDT / 11:12 PM CDT / 0412Z 15 October 2026), Severe Thunderstorm Watch 685 is in effect until 11 PM CDT for southwest Oklahoma and west/northwest Texas. Status reports and MD 2377 indicate the severe weather threat continues with a well-defined QLCS and embedded mesovortex advancing along the Red River Valley. Active Severe Thunderstorm Warnings from NWS Norman cover portions of Foard, Knox, Hardeman, Wilbarger and adjacent counties in Texas (destructive 70–80 mph winds, hail, tornado possible near Crowell, Quanah, Vernon) and Comanche, Cotton, Jackson, Tillman counties in Oklahoma (60–70 mph winds near Lawton, Cache, Fort Sill, Geronimo). Multiple Flash Flood Warnings remain active from NWS Norman across the Oklahoma City metro (Oklahoma, Canadian, Cleveland, Kingfisher, Logan and adjacent counties) and western/central Oklahoma, plus residual from NWS Lubbock in northwestern Texas (Crosby, Dickens, Garza, Kent, Cottle, Motley with 2–5 inches fallen) and NWS Charleston in Ohio and West Virginia (1–2.25 inches). Flood Watches continue through Thursday afternoon across broad areas of Oklahoma and northern Texas. Life-threatening flash flooding of creeks, streams, urban areas, highways, and underpasses is ongoing or expected in places. Turn around, don’t drown remains the critical public message. Preliminary reports emphasize heavy rainfall totals of several inches (OKC metro 3–6 inches, western areas 4–11 inches including Elk City ~8.5 inches and Hinton ~9 inches) and developing wind damage under the watch.

Tropical

The National Hurricane Center reports no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean Sea, or Gulf of America. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected over the next seven days in the Atlantic basin. In the Eastern Pacific, Hurricane Simon remains offshore Mexico with no threat to the United States, and Tropical Storm Trudy is also well south of Mexico. No Storm Surge, Tropical Storm, or Hurricane Watches or Warnings are in effect for any U.S. coastline or the Gulf of America.

Rising queries

Trends unreachable.

Informational only — not an official warning. Always consult the latest products from the National Weather Service, Storm Prediction Center, Weather Prediction Center, and National Hurricane Center for official guidance and warnings. Watches and warnings expire and are replaced. Preliminary reports can change.

October 14, 2026

Storm Updates: Plains Slight — Oct 13

Tropical: None · Severe: Slight · Flood: Slight

What Changed

As of ~9:16 PM PDT / 11:16 PM CDT / 0416Z Wednesday, October 14, 2026, Severe Thunderstorm Watch 682 (KS/MO, expired 0400Z) has reached its expiration; Watches 683 (OK/TX Panhandle until Midnight CDT / 0500Z) and 684 (west TX until 2 AM CDT / 0700Z) remain in effect. Primary threats unchanged: large hail to 2.75 inches, damaging winds to 80+ mph, isolated tornado possible.
SPC 0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook (issued 0800 PM CDT Tuesday, October 13, 2026, valid 140100Z–141200Z) continues to hold the Slight Risk across southern/central Plains into the Lower Missouri Valley for large hail and severe gusts this evening into tonight. Isolated large hail possible in the southern Great Lakes. No category upgrade since the morning 1300 UTC outlook.
Preliminary SPC LSRs (1200 UTC Oct 13 onward, through ~2344 UTC) remain: hail to 2.75 inches near Matador TX and Mclean TX, 2.50 inches near Hedley TX, 2.00 inches near Lipscomb TX, multiple 1.00–1.75 inch reports in KS/OK/TX; wind gusts to 81 mph near Turkey TX, 75 mph near Flomot TX, 70 mph near Easton KS (power pole down), tree limbs down near Hazelton KS. No tornado reports received.
Active Severe Thunderstorm Warnings continue under the remaining watches, with prior destructive threats noted in the Kansas City metro. WPC Day 1 Slight ERO holds across the corridor with Flood Watches for KS/MO including KC metro. Tropical lane unchanged: no U.S. land threats from Atlantic or EP systems.
No new mesoscale discussions issued in the last hour; storms continue organizing into clusters along the front with upscale growth expected overnight under the low-level jet.

Live Status

As of approximately 9:16 PM PDT / 11:16 PM CDT / 0416Z Wednesday, October 14, 2026, Severe Thunderstorm Watches 683 and 684 remain live over western Oklahoma, the eastern Texas Panhandle, and west Texas, while Watch 682 for Kansas and northwest Missouri has expired. The SPC Day 1 Slight Risk continues to cover scattered severe storms capable of large hail and severe gusts this evening into tonight from the southern/central Plains into the Lower Missouri Valley. Surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s F, MLCAPE 2000–2500 J/kg, and 35–45 kt shear continue to support supercells transitioning to linear and cluster modes. Preliminary LSRs confirm large hail and damaging winds are verifying. The low-level jet is expected to sustain convection overnight.

A Marginal Risk persists for isolated severe gusts in parts of western and central New York and for overnight expansion into far northeast Oklahoma, southeast Kansas, and southwest Missouri. The WPC Day 1 Slight Excessive Rainfall Outlook and associated Flood Watches cover the Kansas City metro and surrounding areas. The multi-day unsettled period with heavy rain potential continues through Thursday.

Hotspots

KS / NW MO — Watch 682 expired

Southern and eastern Kansas into west-central and northwest Missouri were under Watch 682 until 11 PM CDT / 0400Z. The watch included the Kansas City metro, Wichita, and Topeka corridors. Threats included large hail (1–2.5 inches), damaging winds (60–80 mph), and a low tornado risk, concurrent with Flood Watches for the KC metro. Active warnings earlier included destructive wind threats over the Kansas City area; preliminary hail and wind reports occurred in central Kansas. Storms continue to track east as the watch ends.

Western OK / eastern TX Panhandle / west TX — Watches 683 and 684 live

Western Oklahoma and the eastern Texas Panhandle into northwest Texas remain under Watch 683 until Midnight CDT / 0500Z; west Texas under Watch 684 until 2 AM CDT / 0700Z. Threats: large to very large hail (to 2.75 inches), damaging winds (to 81 mph), and an isolated tornado. LSRs include 2.75-inch hail near Matador and Mclean TX, 2.50-inch hail near Hedley TX, and an 81 mph gust near Turkey TX. Prior mesoscale discussion 2371 noted an organizing cluster across southwestern into central Oklahoma. The WPC Slight ERO extends into the region.

Overnight Marginal and western/central NY

A Marginal Risk continues for isolated severe gusts. Scattered storms remain possible in western and central New York with a watch unlikely. Overnight Marginal expansion into far northeast Oklahoma, southeast Kansas, and southwest Missouri is possible for organized wind if convection persists along the front.

Just Hit

Preliminary SPC Local Storm Reports (from 1200 UTC Oct 13 through ~2344 UTC): hail to 2.75 inches near Matador (Motley County, TX) and Mclean (Wheeler County, TX), 2.50 inches near Hedley (Donley County, TX), 2.00 inches near Lipscomb TX, 1.75 inches near Matador, and multiple 1.00-inch reports across KS/OK/TX. Wind reports: 81 mph measured near Turkey (Hall County, TX), 75 mph near Flomot (Motley County, TX), 70 mph near Easton KS (power pole down), 63 mph near McAdoo TX, and tree limbs down near Hazelton KS. Radar-indicated larger hail and 70–80 mph gusts occurred under active warnings, including earlier destructive threats over the Kansas City metro. No tornado reports have been received. Residual minor Flood Warnings elsewhere remain non-severe leftovers.

Pulse Table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS / WPC level	Status this afternoon
KS / NW MO	Large hail (1–2.5″), damaging wind (60–80 mph), isolated tornado, heavy rain	SPC Slight; Watch 682 expired 0400Z; WPC Slight; Flood Watches (KC metro)	Watch expired; earlier LSRs and destructive warnings including KC metro; storms tracking east
Western OK / eastern TX Panhandle / west TX	Large hail (to 2.75″), damaging wind (to 81 mph), isolated tornado, heavy rain	SPC Slight/Marginal; Watches 683/684 until Midnight–2 AM CDT; WPC Slight	Live; Watches 683/684 active; 2.75″ hail and 81 mph wind LSRs in TX Panhandle
Overnight Marginal / western-central NY	Isolated severe gusts, localized wind	SPC Marginal	Isolated possible; limited NY coverage; overnight expansion possible
CONUS watches / outlook	Severe storms	SPC Slight; Watches 683 + 684 live (682 expired); LSRs arriving	Two watches active; short-fuse warnings and preliminary reports ongoing

Restoration Read

Slight Risk severe weather continues under live Watches 683 and 684 (Watch 682 expired), with preliminary LSRs confirming large hail (to 2.75 inches) and damaging wind gusts (to 81 mph) across the Texas Panhandle and central Kansas. Teams covering Kansas City, Wichita, Topeka, Amarillo, Lubbock, and Oklahoma corridors should stage for tree, roof, siding, and exterior damage from hail and gusts. Concurrent Flood Slight and active Flood Watches make water the co-equal ticket; monitor low-lying areas, creeks, and urban runoff as rainfall rates climb. No tropical or coastal surge tickets. Standard posture: confirm county products on weather.gov, stage for mixed wind/hail/water response, and re-check as storms continue overnight.

What This Is Not

Not an official warning. Not an Enhanced or higher severe day. Not a Moderate or higher excessive rainfall day. Not a tropical threat to the U.S. coast or Gulf. Not a reason to invent tornadoes or widespread damage beyond the preliminary reports. The Slight remains the official category; Watches 683 and 684 confirm the threat is still underway in the southern portions. All reports remain preliminary and subject to revision.

Looking Ahead One Day

SPC Day 2 Outlook places a Slight Risk over portions of the southern Plains into the Ozark Plateau (mainly damaging winds, with isolated hail and a tornado or two possible) for Wednesday afternoon and evening, with Marginal elsewhere including parts of the upper Ohio Valley. WPC continues the multi-day heavy rain potential into the Plains/Missouri Valley corridor. Cooler air is expected later in the week.

Rising Queries

Trends unreachable this run.

Storm Hub

No named storm threatening U.S. land. Prior residual hubs: Hurricane Isaias 2026 and Tropical Storm Rachel 2026. No new hub created.

Sources

Primary: spc.noaa.gov (Day 1 outlook 0100 UTC, mesoscale discussions including MD 2371, Watches 682/683/684, today’s LSRs), WPC Day 1 ERO, NWS watches/warnings summary, nhc.noaa.gov (no U.S. tropical threats). Morning desk: Storm Updates: Plains Slight — Oct 13 Morning.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Confirm local products on weather.gov before travel or work. Watches and warnings expire and are replaced. Preliminary reports can change.

October 13, 2026

Storm Updates: Plains Slight — Oct 13 Morning

Tropical: None · Severe: Slight · Flood: Slight

What Changed

Severe Thunderstorm Watches 682 (southern/eastern Kansas into west-central/northwest Missouri until 11 PM CDT / 0400Z), 683 (western Oklahoma and eastern Texas Panhandle into northwest Texas until Midnight CDT / 0500Z), and 684 (west Texas until 2 AM CDT / 0700Z) remain in effect as of 0210Z October 14. Primary threats: large hail to 2.5 inches, damaging winds to 75–80 mph, isolated tornado possible. Status messages updated through 0153Z.
SPC 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook (0800 PM CDT / 7:00 PM PDT Tuesday, October 13, 2026, valid 140100Z–141200Z) maintains the Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of the southern and central Plains into the Lower Missouri Valley. Summary: scattered severe storms capable of large hail and severe gusts this evening into tonight. Isolated large hail possible in the southern Great Lakes. Core Slight area holds with ongoing supercell and linear modes. Next outlook by 0600Z.
Preliminary SPC Local Storm Reports (1200 UTC Oct 13 through ~2344 UTC) include hail to 2.75 inches near Matador and McLean TX, 2.50 inches near Hedley TX, 2.00 inches near Lipscomb TX, 1.75 inches near Matador, and multiple 1.00-inch reports across KS/OK/TX; wind gusts to 81 mph near Turkey TX (TTU mesonet), 75 mph near Flomot TX, 70 mph near Easton KS, 63 mph near McAdoo TX, plus tree limbs down near Hazelton KS and a power pole down near Grantville KS. No tornado reports received.
Active short-fuse Severe Thunderstorm Warnings continue across the Plains, including earlier destructive-threat storms over the Kansas City metro. WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 0010 UTC Oct 14 / 8:10 PM EDT) holds the Slight Risk across the central and southern Plains into the Lower Missouri Valley, with subtle shifts based on radar and HRRR trends. Flood Watches remain for portions of KS and adjacent western MO.
No tropical storm or hurricane watches or warnings on the U.S. coast or Gulf. Hurricane Simon and Tropical Storm Trudy (Eastern Pacific) remain offshore Mexico with no U.S. land threat. Tropical lane unchanged. Severe and flood categories remain Slight; main movement is confirmed initiation with measured LSRs and active watches continuing into the overnight.

Live Status

As of the Tuesday morning desk update (approximately 9:13 PM PDT / 11:13 PM CDT / 0413Z on October 13/14, 2026), Severe Thunderstorm Watches 682, 683, and 684 remain live over the central and southern Plains into west Texas. The SPC Day 1 Slight Risk covers scattered severe storms capable of large hail and severe gusts this evening into tonight over the central and southern Plains into the Lower Missouri Valley. Moderate instability (MLCAPE 2000–2500 J/kg) and 0–6 km shear near 35 knots support supercells with large hail, severe wind gusts, and a tornado or two possible before modes become more linear. Primary hazards remain large hail (up to 2.75 inches reported) and damaging winds (up to 81 mph measured). Tornado potential is low but non-zero near the front. Short-fuse Severe Thunderstorm Warnings have been active, including destructive threats over the Kansas City metro.

A Marginal Risk continues for parts of the southern Great Lakes (isolated large hail with elevated storms) and broader areas of southwest Texas into the mid-Mississippi Valley. A small Marginal ERO covers southeast Texas and adjacent Louisiana for urban/poor-drainage flooding. WPC Slight ERO remains in place, driven by slow cell motions, repeating convection, and a developing low-level jet after sunset. Neighborhood probabilities support elevated chances for >3 inches near Kansas City and over the southern High Plains. This is the start of a multi-day unsettled period with additional heavy rainfall possible through Thursday.

Pulse Table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS / WPC level	Status this evening
KS / NW MO (including KC metro)	Large hail (1–2.5″), damaging wind (60–80 mph), isolated tornado, heavy rain	SPC Slight; Watch 682 until 11 PM CDT; WPC Slight; Flood Watches	Live; SVR warnings (destructive in KC, some cancelled); LSRs of hail/wind; power outages reported
Western OK / eastern TX Panhandle into NW TX	Large hail (to 2.75″), damaging wind (to 81 mph), isolated tornado, heavy rain	SPC Slight/Marginal; Watch 683 until Midnight CDT; WPC Slight	Live; Watch 683 active; 2.75″ hail and 81 mph wind LSRs
West Texas (near I-20 / Midland area)	Large hail (to 2.5″), isolated damaging wind	SPC Slight; Watch 684 until 2 AM CDT	Live; supercell threat continuing
Southern Great Lakes	Isolated large hail	SPC Marginal	Elevated storms possible overnight
Southeast Texas / adjacent Louisiana	Urban/poor-drainage flooding	WPC Marginal ERO	Evening window; high FFG
CONUS severe watches / LSRs	Severe storms	Watches 682/683/684 live; hail to 2.75″, wind to 81 mph	Initiation confirmed; no tornado LSRs

Rising queries

Trends unreachable this run.

Looking ahead

SPC Day 2 Outlook places a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms from western North Texas across Oklahoma to the western Ozark Plateau for Wednesday, primarily damaging wind gusts with isolated hail and a tornado or two possible. Marginal Risk extends into parts of the upper Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic. Additional heavy rainfall is expected through Thursday across the Plains and Midwest corridor. Cooler air arrives later in the week.

Restoration posture: the Plains severe and flood window is open this evening into tonight under Watches 682, 683, and 684 and Flood Watches. Primary hazards large hail and damaging wind under supercells and clusters, with confirmed reports of both. Check weather.gov for county-level warnings, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook and watch status, and wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for the excessive rainfall overlay. No named storm hub required this run.

Prior desk: Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Oct 12 Morning.

Informational only — not an official warning. This is a morning desk summary of public National Weather Service, Storm Prediction Center, Weather Prediction Center, and National Hurricane Center products as of approximately 9:13 PM PDT on October 13, 2026. Always confirm with the latest official forecasts.

October 13, 2026

Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Oct 12

Tropical: None · Severe: Quiet · Flood: Slight

What Changed

SPC 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook (issued 0746 AM CDT Monday, October 12, 2026, valid 121300Z–131200Z) remains NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST. Summary: no severe weather forecast across the U.S. today and tonight. No change from the morning desk. No convective watches valid. SPC today’s storm reports (1200 UTC Oct 12 onward) show zero tornado, hail, or wind reports.
WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 0748 UTC / 3:48 AM EDT Monday, October 12, 2026, valid 12Z Mon–12Z Tue) maintains a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall across parts of the Great Basin & Southwest. No Moderate or higher. Residual moisture from Tropical Storm Rachel continues the threat into this afternoon and evening before the pattern shifts east. No change in category from morning.
Flash Flood Warnings for the Paria River corridor (Coconino County, AZ / south-central Kane County, UT) remain in effect this morning. NWS Flagstaff and Salt Lake City report a confirmed flood wave (gauge rise ~3 feet, flow to 2200 CFS). Life-threatening flash flooding of slot canyons, dry washes, and the Colorado River confluence near Lees Ferry. Warnings expire late morning (around 11 AM MDT / 10 AM PDT). Flood Watches continue for western/northern AZ and much of Utah through this afternoon.
Winter Storm Warnings for elevated terrain in central and north-central Montana have expired. No new organized severe windows. Mid-Atlantic residual closed overnight remains closed.

Live Status

As of Monday afternoon, October 12, 2026 (~9:30 AM PDT / 12:30 PM EDT), the national desk stays in Quiet Pulse. SPC Day 1 holds zero severe thunderstorm probability areas and lists no watches. The organized severe window from Isaias remnants closed overnight and has not reopened.

WPC Day 1 ERO keeps the Slight Risk over the Great Basin and Southwest (western/central Mogollon Rim into northwest AZ, Wasatch and canyon areas of UT). Residual Rachel moisture under the deep western trough supports isolated to scattered thunderstorms with locally heavy rain. Antecedent wet ground, burn scars, and slot canyons elevate the flash-flood potential. The threat is expected to wind down after Monday night as the pattern shifts east. Active Flash Flood Warnings cover the Paria River flood wave this morning; the highest residual risk remains over western AZ terrain and southern UT canyons.

No named tropical cyclone threatens or has just hit U.S. land. Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias is fully dissipated. Residual Rachel moisture is the only residual tropical influence, tracked solely by WPC as a flood residual. Hurricane Simon remains offshore Mexico and does not threaten U.S. land.

Hotspots

Southwest / Great Basin residual flood — WPC Slight ERO. Locally heavy rain possible this afternoon into evening over AZ Mogollon Rim, northwest AZ, and UT Wasatch/canyons. Burn-scar and slot-canyon runoff risk elevated. Highest residual western AZ terrain.

Paria River corridor (AZ/UT) — Active Flash Flood Warnings this morning for the confirmed flood wave. Slot canyons, dry washes, Lees Ferry confluence. Window closing late morning; Flood Watches continue broader area through afternoon.

Rest of CONUS — Quiet. SPC no severe areas. Isolated elevated thunderstorms possible Dakotas into Upper Midwest (small hail possible with strongest) and Intermountain West, but no severe threat. Montana winter warnings expired.

Just Hit

No new SPC local storm reports for the October 12 window (1200 UTC onward). The organized severe work from Sunday (NC tornadoes) is closed and under survey. The live work this morning is the Paria River flood wave from residual Rachel moisture.

Pulse Table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS / WPC level	Status this afternoon
Southwest / Great Basin (W/C AZ, NW AZ, SW UT, Wasatch)	Heavy rain, flash flood, burn-scar/slot-canyon runoff	WPC Slight ERO; FFWs Paria this morning	Residual live from Rachel; threat into afternoon/evening then shifts east
Paria River corridor (Coconino AZ / Kane UT)	Life-threatening flash flood, slot canyons, Lees Ferry	Active FFWs (gauge confirmed)	Live this morning; expires late morning; watches broader through afternoon
Mid-Atlantic residual	None	SPC none; WPC none	Closed overnight; remains closed
Montana elevated terrain	Heavy snow (expired)	Winter Storm Warning expired	Closed; additional snow ended early morning
CONUS severe watches / Day 1 outlook	None	SPC: no severe areas; no watches; 0 LSRs today	Quiet

Restoration Read

Quiet Pulse on the severe side. The residual work is water on the Southwest and Great Basin. Teams already on residual Isaias impacts in the Southeast continue extraction and drying. In AZ and UT, monitor the Paria corridor and broader Flood Watch areas for slot-canyon and burn-scar runoff through this afternoon. No new wind or hail tickets. Standard quiet-day posture: check weather.gov for the county, watch the FFWs expire, and stay ready for the residual flood window before it shifts east overnight.

What This Is Not

Not an official warning. Not a Slight or higher severe day. Not a Moderate or higher flood day. Not a tropical threat to the U.S. coast or Gulf. Not a reason to invent activity. Quiet is the status.

Looking Ahead One Day

Day 2 and Day 3 outlooks show the western trough shifting east. Residual flood threat ends after Monday night. Isolated elevated storms possible further east Tuesday, but no severe areas currently indicated for tomorrow. Check the next Day 1 for any evolution.

Rising Queries

Residual interest: hurricane tropical storm, power outage near me (Isaias residual), Rachel remnants / Southwest flood. Trends partially reachable; residual from the recent systems, not a new hotspot spike.

Storm Hubs

Storm hub: Hurricane Isaias 2026 | Tropical Storm Rachel 2026. Dated entries link back to this desk and the morning desk. No active named storms threatening U.S. land.

Morning desk: Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Oct 12 Morning.

Sources: spc.noaa.gov (Day 1 outlook, watches, reports), WPC ERO, weather.gov (watches/warnings, including Paria FFWs), nhc.noaa.gov (no U.S. tropical threats).

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

October 12, 2026

Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Oct 12

Tropical: None · Severe: Quiet · Flood: Slight

What Changed

SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook (latest 0100 UTC / 7:44 PM CDT Monday, October 12, 2026, valid 130100Z–131200Z) continues NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST. Summary: organized severe weather is not expected tonight. A few strong storms possible in central Kansas early this evening (weak buoyancy, late timing) and elevated convection over the lower Great Lakes (isolated small hail); no severe threat. Unchanged from morning desk and 1300 UTC. No watches or mesoscale discussions valid. Zero LSRs for the October 12 window.
WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 1553 UTC / 11:53 AM EDT Monday, valid 16Z Mon–12Z Tue) maintains a Slight Risk across parts of the Great Basin and Southwest. No Moderate or higher. Residual from Tropical Storm Rachel under the western trough. Category unchanged.
Flash Flood Warnings and broader Flood Watches for the Paria River corridor (AZ/UT) and related areas expired earlier Monday. Residual runoff possible in slot canyons, burn scars, and downstream. Mid-Atlantic residual remains closed. Nothing reopened on the severe board.
No tropical storm or hurricane watches or warnings on the U.S. coast or Gulf of Mexico. Post-Tropical Isaias fully dissipated. Residual Rachel moisture is the sole tropical influence, tracked by WPC as flood residual. Hurricane Simon remains offshore Mexico (near Cabo Corrientes) with Hurricane Warning on offshore waters only; no U.S. land threat.
SPC Day 2 Outlook (1730 UTC) places a Slight Risk over portions of the southern and central Plains into the Lower Missouri Valley for Tuesday afternoon into night.

Live Status

As of late Monday evening, October 12, 2026 (~9:14 PM PDT), the national desk remains Quiet Pulse. SPC Day 1 holds zero severe thunderstorm probability areas and lists no watches. Organized severe from Isaias remnants closed overnight and stayed closed. Zero local storm reports received today.

WPC Day 1 ERO keeps the Slight Risk over the Great Basin and Southwest (western/central Mogollon Rim into northwest AZ, Wasatch and canyon areas of UT). Residual Rachel moisture supports isolated to scattered thunderstorms with locally heavy rain possible into the evening. Antecedent wet ground, burn scars, and slot canyons elevate flash-flood potential. The threat is expected to wind down after Monday night as the pattern shifts east. Paria products have expired; residual runoff possible as water moves through the system.

No named tropical cyclone threatens or has just hit U.S. land. Isaias is fully dissipated. Residual Rachel moisture is the only residual tropical influence. Hurricane Simon stays well clear of the U.S. Residual minor river flooding persists in the Carolinas and other basins from prior rains, non-severe.

Hotspots

Southwest / Great Basin residual flood — WPC Slight ERO. Locally heavy rain possible into the evening over AZ Mogollon Rim, northwest AZ, and UT Wasatch/canyons. Burn-scar and slot-canyon runoff risk elevated. Highest residual over western AZ terrain; winding down overnight.

Paria River corridor (AZ/UT) — FFW and Flood Watch expired. Residual slot canyon and Lees Ferry risk as the confirmed flood wave moves downstream.

Rest of CONUS — Quiet. SPC no severe areas. Isolated elevated thunderstorms possible over the Upper Great Lakes or near the KS cold front, but no severe threat. Residual minor river flooding in the Carolinas and LA/TX remains non-severe.

Just Hit

No new SPC local storm reports for the October 12 window. The organized severe work from Sunday is closed. The live residual work was the Paria River flood wave from residual Rachel moisture, which has passed the gauge and is moving through the system. Flood products expired this afternoon.

Pulse Table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS / WPC level	Status this evening
Southwest / Great Basin (W/C AZ, NW AZ, SW UT, Wasatch)	Heavy rain, flash flood, burn-scar/slot-canyon runoff	WPC Slight ERO	Residual live from Rachel; threat into evening then shifts east
Paria River corridor (Coconino AZ / Kane UT)	Residual flash flood, slot canyons, Lees Ferry	FFW and Flood Watches expired	Wave passed; residual downstream; products closed
Mid-Atlantic residual	None	SPC none; WPC none	Closed overnight; remains closed
Carolinas / LA-TX rivers	Minor river flooding residual	Flood Warnings ongoing non-severe	Receding from prior rains
CONUS severe watches / Day 1 outlook	None	SPC: no severe areas; no watches; 0 LSRs today	Quiet

Restoration Read

Quiet Pulse on the severe side. The residual work is water on the Southwest and Great Basin. Teams already on residual Isaias impacts in the Southeast continue extraction and drying. In AZ and UT, residual slot-canyon and burn-scar runoff risk continues through this evening before the pattern shifts east. No new wind or hail tickets. Standard quiet-day posture: check weather.gov for the county and stay ready for the residual flood window before it ends overnight.

What This Is Not

Not an official warning. Not a Slight or higher severe day. Not a Moderate or higher flood day. Not a tropical threat to the U.S. coast or Gulf. Not a reason to invent activity. Quiet is the status.

Looking Ahead One Day

The western trough shifts east. Residual flood threat ends after Monday night. SPC Day 2 Convective Outlook (1730 UTC, updated 11:58 AM CDT Monday, October 12, 2026, valid 131200Z–141200Z) carries a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms across portions of the southern and central Plains into the Lower Missouri Valley Tuesday afternoon into night (large hail and damaging winds possible; isolated tornado near the triple point). Isolated elevated storms possible further east. Check the next Day 1 for any evolution.

Rising Queries

Residual interest: “hurricane tropical storm”, “power outage near me” (tied to recent Isaias residual and cleanup). Trends data limited this run; residual queries only.

Storm Hubs

Storm hub: Hurricane Isaias 2026 | Tropical Storm Rachel 2026. Dated entries link back to this desk and the morning desk. No active named storms threatening U.S. land.

Morning desk: Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Oct 12 Morning.

Sources: spc.noaa.gov (Day 1 outlook, watches, reports), WPC ERO, weather.gov (watches/warnings), nhc.noaa.gov (no U.S. tropical threats).

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

October 12, 2026

Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Oct 12 Morning

Tropical: None · Severe: Quiet · Flood: Slight

What Changed

SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook (0600 UTC / 12:35 AM CDT Monday, October 12, 2026, valid 121200Z–131200Z, and subsequent updates including 0100 UTC) holds NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST. Summary: No severe weather is forecast across the U.S. today and tonight. Dropped from the prior Marginal residual on Mid-Atlantic and Desert Southwest. No convective watches valid. Zero LSRs for the period.
WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 1553 UTC / 11:53 AM EDT Monday, October 12, 2026, valid 16Z Mon–12Z Tue) maintains a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall across parts of the Great Basin & Southwest. No Moderate or higher. Residual from dissipated Tropical Storm Rachel. Unchanged category.
Active Flash Flood Warnings in southern Utah (Zion, Forsyth burn scar, Paria corridor) expired earlier Monday. Residual runoff possible in burn scars and slot canyons. Mid-Atlantic residual closed. Nothing reopened on the severe board.
No tropical storm or hurricane watches or warnings on the U.S. coast or Gulf. Post-Tropical Isaias fully dissipated. Residual Rachel moisture tracked only as WPC flood residual. Hurricane Simon (Eastern Pacific) offshore Mexico, no U.S. land threat. Quiet Pulse holds.

Live Status

As of the Monday morning desk, October 12, 2026, the national picture is Quiet Pulse. SPC Day 1 lists no severe thunderstorm probability areas and no watches. Organized severe from Isaias remnants closed overnight and stayed closed. Isolated thunderstorms possible near a cold front across the Great Lakes or in the Intermountain West under southwest flow, but no severe threat forecast. Zero local storm reports.

WPC Day 1 ERO holds the Slight Risk over the Great Basin and Southwest (western/central Mogollon Rim into northwest Arizona, Wasatch and canyon areas of Utah). Residual moisture from Tropical Storm Rachel supports isolated to scattered thunderstorms with locally heavy rain possible through the day into evening. Antecedent wet ground, burn scars, and slot canyons keep flash-flood potential elevated even after warnings expired. Pattern expected to shift east after Monday night.

No named tropical cyclone threatens or has just hit U.S. land. Isaias is fully dissipated. Residual Rachel moisture is the sole residual tropical influence, tracked by WPC. Residual minor river flooding persists in the Carolinas and other basins from prior rains; non-severe. High wind products in the Intermountain West are non-severe.

Pulse Table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS / WPC level	Status this morning
Southwest / Great Basin (W/C AZ, NW AZ, SW UT, Wasatch)	Heavy rain, flash flood, burn-scar/slot-canyon runoff	WPC Slight ERO	Residual live from Rachel; threat through day then shifts east
Paria River corridor (Coconino AZ / Kane UT)	Residual flash flood, slot canyons	FFW and Flood Watches expired	Wave passed; residual downstream possible
Mid-Atlantic residual / eastern NC-SE VA	None	SPC none; WPC none	Closed overnight; remains closed
Carolinas rivers	Minor river flooding residual	Flood Warnings ongoing non-severe	Receding from prior rains
CONUS severe watches / Day 1 outlook	None	SPC: no severe areas; no watches; 0 LSRs	Quiet

Rising Queries

Trends unreachable.

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watches, and local storm reports, WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay, and nhc.noaa.gov for residual products.

Storm hubs (residual): Hurricane Isaias 2026 | Tropical Storm Rachel 2026. No active named storms threatening U.S. land.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

October 12, 2026

Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Oct 11

Tropical: None (Isaias & Rachel dissipated) · Severe: Marginal · Flood: Slight

What Changed

SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook (0100 UTC / 7:47 PM CDT Sunday, October 11, 2026, valid 120100Z–121200Z) holds only a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of the Mid-Atlantic (isolated tornado threat near the coast for a few more hours) and Desert Southwest (isolated severe gusts). No Slight or higher risk remains. Current watches page lists no convective watches valid; Tornado Watch 681 expired earlier.
WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 0056 UTC Monday, October 12 / 8:56 PM EDT Sunday, October 11, 2026) maintains a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall across parts of the Great Basin and Southwest from residual Rachel moisture. Moderate Risk dropped. Mid-Atlantic reduced to Marginal Risk. Isaias surface low dissipated over West Virginia.
Active Flash Flood Warnings continue in southern Utah, including extensions for Zion National Park (West Central Kane / East Central Washington counties) and the Forsyth burn scar (Central Washington County), with observed flash flooding and considerable damage threat reported.
No tropical storm or hurricane watches or warnings remain in effect for the U.S. coast or Gulf. Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias has fully dissipated. Remnants of Rachel continue to support residual moisture in the Southwest/Great Basin. Hurricane Simon remains offshore Mexico and does not threaten U.S. land.
Preliminary tornado reports from Sunday afternoon across central and eastern North Carolina (including Candor, Clarendon, Atkinson, Fayetteville area, and near Raleigh) remain under NWS survey. The organized severe window is closed.

Live Status

As of late Sunday evening, October 11, 2026 (around 8:12 p.m. PDT / 11:12 p.m. EDT), the day has entered Quiet Pulse status. SPC holds no Slight or higher convective risk and lists no current watches. Residual Marginal Risk exists for isolated tornadoes near the Mid-Atlantic coast for a few more hours and isolated severe gusts in the Desert Southwest under leftover shear and moisture.

Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias has dissipated. Its surface low elongated into a trough over West Virginia and was absorbed. Residual rainfall of 1 to 3 inches remains possible overnight across portions of the Central Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic under a WPC Marginal Risk, but the heavy rain threat is decreasing. Earlier overnight totals of several inches produced flash flooding and landslides in western North Carolina; residual Flood Warnings persist in some elevated areas.

In the Southwest and Great Basin, residual moisture from Post-Tropical Cyclone Rachel supports a WPC Slight Risk of excessive rainfall. The highest residual risk is across western Arizona, with a broader Slight covering northwest Arizona into portions of the Great Basin. Active Flash Flood Warnings cover Zion National Park and the Forsyth burn scar in southern Utah, where thunderstorms have produced heavy rain and observed flash flooding with considerable damage threat. Vulnerable locations include burn scars, slot canyons, dry washes, and urban areas. High Wind Warnings and Wind Advisories remain in effect across parts of Arizona, California, and Nevada.

No tropical storm or hurricane watches or warnings are in effect for the U.S. coast or Gulf of Mexico. All prior tropical products for Isaias and Rachel have been discontinued or reduced to residual flood tracking by WPC.

Hotspots

Southwest / Great Basin residual flood: Primary live residual under WPC Slight Risk from Rachel remnants. Active Flash Flood Warnings in southern Utah (Zion National Park, Forsyth burn scar) with observed flooding and considerable damage threat. Highest residual risk western Arizona into Great Basin. Burn scars, canyons, and urban areas remain vulnerable.

Mid-Atlantic residual severe and flood: Organized window closed after Tornado Watch 681 expired. Multiple preliminary tornadoes in central and eastern North Carolina under survey (Candor, Clarendon, Atkinson, Fayetteville, Raleigh area). Residual Marginal Risk near the coast this evening. WPC Marginal residual rain possible overnight.

Blue Ridge / Central Appalachians residual: Decreasing flood risk as Isaias dissipated. Significant overnight rainfall already produced flash flooding and landslides in western North Carolina. Residual Marginal Risk overnight.

Just Hit

Sunday afternoon tornadoes across central and eastern North Carolina, including observed near Atkinson (Pender County), preliminary or confirmed near Candor (Montgomery — building destroyed), Clarendon (Columbus — structures destroyed), Fayetteville area (Cumberland), Jordan Lake (Chatham), and near Raleigh/Clayton. NWS surveys ongoing. Residual Flash Flood Warnings active in southern Utah from Rachel moisture. Power outages from earlier Isaias impacts continue, with Florida and Alabama still seeing the largest numbers.

Pulse Table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS / WPC level	Status this evening
Mid-Atlantic coast / eastern NC-SE VA	Isolated residual tornado, residual flood	SPC Marginal (Slight closed, Watch 681 expired)	Window largely closed; residual isolated this evening
Southwest / Great Basin (S CA / S NV / NW AZ / SW UT)	Heavy rain, flash flood, gusty winds	WPC Slight excessive rainfall; active FFW in UT	Residual live, Rachel remnants; Zion/Forsyth active
Blue Ridge / Central Appalachians residual	Upslope residual rain, flash flood, landslides	WPC Marginal excessive rainfall	Decreasing; overnight heavy totals already on ground
Tennessee Valley / Isaias residual	Dissipated	Post-tropical dissipated	Surface low absorbed; residual decreasing

Rising Queries

Rising queries tied to today’s residual: “power outage near me” (driven by residual Isaias impacts in the Southeast), “tornado near me” / North Carolina tornado reports, residual flood and flash flood queries for the Southwest and Utah burn scars. Trends data partial this run.

Restoration Read

Coastal wind and surge work from the Friday night Destin landfall remains closed. Immediate residual tickets are inland freshwater extraction and tree/road clearance from Isaias rain in the Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic, plus survey of the afternoon North Carolina tornadoes. On the West Coast, residual flash flooding under the Rachel Slight Risk, especially burn scars and canyons in southern Utah and western Arizona. Distinguish residual Appalachian work from Southwest residual. Power outage restoration continues across the Southeast.

What This Is Not

This is not an active hurricane or tropical-storm warning on the Gulf or Atlantic coast. All Storm Surge and Tropical Storm Warnings for Isaias and Rachel have been discontinued. It is not a plains or Midwest severe outbreak. The organized hazards were the earlier SPC Slight Risk and now-expired Tornado Watch 681 in eastern North Carolina and southeast Virginia (with multiple tornado reports), and the WPC Slight (Moderate dropped) excessive-rainfall risk in the Great Basin and Southwest from Rachel remnants. No new NHC hurricane or storm-surge warning has been issued for U.S. land this run.

Looking Ahead

Isaias remnants are fully dissipated. SPC Day 2 outlook shows no severe thunderstorm areas forecast for Monday. Rachel remnants will continue residual heavy rainfall and gusty winds over the Southwest before further dissipation. Watch the next Storm Tracker update for verification of the Mid-Atlantic tornado reports and any further contraction of the Southwest flood products.

Sources and How to Verify

Primary sources, dated Sunday, October 11, 2026: NOAA Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Convective Outlook (0100 UTC October 12, Marginal Risk Mid-Atlantic and Desert Southwest) and Current Watches (no watches currently valid; most recently #681); Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook and Discussion (Slight Risk Great Basin and Southwest, updated 0056 UTC); NHC final products for Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias and Remnants of Rachel. Morning desk: Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Oct 11 Morning.

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook and local storm reports, WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay, and nhc.noaa.gov for residual products.

Storm hub: Hurricane Isaias 2026 | Tropical Storm Rachel 2026. Dated entries link this desk and the morning desk.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

October 11, 2026

Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Oct 11 Morning

Tropical: None (Isaias & Rachel dissipated) · Severe: Marginal · Flood: Slight

What Changed

SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook (0100 UTC / 7:47 PM CDT Sunday, October 11, 2026, valid 120100Z–121200Z) holds only a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of the Mid-Atlantic (isolated tornado threat near the coast for a few more hours) and Desert Southwest (isolated severe gusts). No Slight or higher risk remains. Current watches page lists no convective watches valid; Tornado Watch 681 expired earlier.
WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 0056 UTC Monday, October 12 / 8:56 PM EDT Sunday, October 11, 2026) maintains a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall across parts of the Great Basin and Southwest from residual Rachel moisture. Moderate Risk dropped. Mid-Atlantic reduced to Marginal Risk. Isaias surface low dissipated over West Virginia.
Active Flash Flood Warnings continue in southern Utah, including extensions for Zion National Park (West Central Kane / East Central Washington counties) and the Forsyth burn scar (Central Washington County), with observed flash flooding and considerable damage threat reported.
No tropical storm or hurricane watches or warnings remain in effect for the U.S. coast or Gulf. Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias has fully dissipated. Remnants of Rachel continue to support residual moisture in the Southwest/Great Basin. Hurricane Simon remains offshore Mexico and does not threaten U.S. land.
Preliminary tornado reports from Sunday afternoon across central and eastern North Carolina (including Candor, Clarendon, Atkinson, Fayetteville area, and near Raleigh) remain under NWS survey. The organized severe window is closed.

Live Status

Pulse Table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS / WPC level	Status this evening
Mid-Atlantic coast / eastern NC-SE VA	Isolated residual tornado, residual flood	SPC Marginal (Slight closed, Watch 681 expired)	Window largely closed; residual isolated this evening
Southwest / Great Basin (S CA / S NV / NW AZ / SW UT)	Heavy rain, flash flood, gusty winds	WPC Slight excessive rainfall; active FFW in UT	Residual live, Rachel remnants; Zion/Forsyth active
Blue Ridge / Central Appalachians residual	Upslope residual rain, flash flood, landslides	WPC Marginal excessive rainfall	Decreasing; overnight heavy totals already on ground
Tennessee Valley / Isaias residual	Dissipated	Post-tropical dissipated	Surface low absorbed; residual decreasing

Rising Queries

Trends unreachable this run.

Storm Hubs

Storm hub: Hurricane Isaias 2026 | Tropical Storm Rachel 2026. Dated entries link back to this desk.

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watches, and local storm reports, WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay, and nhc.noaa.gov for residual products.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

October 10, 2026