Storm Updates: West-Central Florida Marginal Tornado — Tuesday, October 6, 2026

This is the Tuesday afternoon Storm Tracker desk for October 6, 2026. The organized severe window is small and coastal, not a plains outbreak. The Storm Prediction Center 2000 UTC Day 1 convective outlook, updated 2:56 p.m. CDT, keeps a Marginal Risk for a brief waterspout or tornado near the west-central Florida Peninsula through tonight. No wind or hail risk areas are drawn. Elsewhere, SPC says severe weather is not forecast. Restoration exposure this afternoon is water first, then a narrow coastal tornado or waterspout chance: saturated Florida ground, urban drainage, and a short-fused spin-up risk that drops off inland from the immediate coast. Trees and hail are not the story on this desk.

The morning desk is here: Storm Updates: Florida Marginal Flood, Quiet Severe Pulse — Tuesday, October 6, 2026 (Morning). The change since that post is the addition of the Marginal tornado area and Mesoscale Discussion 2346. The flood setup was already on the board.

What is live this afternoon

SPC lists no convective watches valid as of 4:13 p.m. CDT (21:13 UTC). The most recently issued watch on the archive page is watch 0676, and it is not in effect. Mesoscale Discussion 2346, issued 2:04 p.m. CDT and valid through 4:00 p.m. CDT, covered the west-central Florida Peninsula. Watch probability was 5 percent. SPC noted a more persistent rotation signature with a small supercell west of Tampa Bay near the differential heating zone and the front, and said the risk of a brief tornado or waterspout moving onshore would drop quickly inland. The 2000 UTC outlook made no change to the Marginal area and pointed readers to that discussion for the near-term risk.

The Marginal area on the 2000 UTC outlook covers about 1,867 square miles and about 1.85 million people. Larger centers named by SPC are St. Petersburg, Clearwater, Largo, Palm Harbor, and Bradenton. The tornado probability is 2 percent. There is no Day 1 damaging-wind probability area and no large-hail probability area. Instability is weak, on the order of 200 to 500 J/kg of mixed-layer CAPE over the warm shelf waters west of Tampa Bay, with poor lapse rates. The morning radar picture was a discontinuous cluster of showers and storms over the northeast Gulf tied to a weak surface low and frontal wave along a front draped across the central peninsula.

The Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, updated 4:21 a.m. EDT and valid 8 a.m. EDT Tuesday through 8 a.m. EDT Wednesday, keeps a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall for much of Florida and far southeastern Georgia. A slow front is sagging from Georgia and Alabama into north Florida. North of it the air is dry and cool. South of it the air is tropical. WPC expects a widespread 1 to 3 inches over much of north Florida, with the flood threat aimed at urban and poor-drainage spots. Soils are saturated from earlier rain. Flat terrain and generally modest rain rates are expected to handle most of it, but training storms can still produce hit-and-miss flash flooding.

The national watches and warnings text product this afternoon does not show a live tornado warning or severe thunderstorm warning on land. An overnight Special Marine Warning from NWS Tallahassee for waterspouts 20 to 60 nautical miles offshore from the Okaloosa-Walton line to Mexico Beach expired at 4:45 a.m. CDT. River and areal flood products are the active ticket book, not a severe-watch board.

Hotspots

West-central Florida coast

Pinellas, Hillsborough shoreline, and northern Manatee are the cities SPC named: St. Petersburg, Clearwater, Largo, Palm Harbor, and Bradenton. The front and the shelf waters west of Tampa Bay are the focus. Restoration read: a brief waterspout or tornado that reaches the immediate coast can put trees on roofs and power lines in a small corridor, then the threat falls off inland. Do not staff this like a watch box. SPC already said a watch is unlikely. Water intrusion from the same showers is the more common call.

North Florida and far southeast Georgia

WPC’s Marginal flood area covers much of Florida and far southeastern Georgia. North Florida is the rainfall core, with 1 to 3 inches expected on saturated ground. NWS Jacksonville still has a river flood warning on the St. Mary’s River at Macclenny, affecting Baker and Nassau counties in Florida and Charlton County in Georgia, in effect until Thursday evening. At 8:45 p.m. EDT Monday the stage was 12.7 feet, flood stage is 12.0 feet, and the forecast crest is 13.0 feet Tuesday evening. Restoration read: low-water extraction, access roads, and timber-land edges, not wind. Turn around, don’t drown still applies on flooded secondary roads.

Florida Panhandle rivers and the Big Bend

NWS Tallahassee issued a flood warning early this morning for Gadsden County, including Quincy, Midway, Havana, Greensboro, and Gretna, after 7 to 11 inches. That warning was timed to expire at 5 a.m. EDT, so it is a just-hit ticket, not a live warning this afternoon. NWS Mobile has a flood warning for the Shoal River near Crestview in Okaloosa County, with minor flooding forecast into late Thursday night. Restoration read: standing water, culverts, and low crossings after the rain has already fallen. This is cleanup and drying, not a new severe corridor.

Just hit

SPC’s preliminary local storm report page for the period starting 7 a.m. CDT today shows no tornado reports, no hail reports, and no wind reports received as of this desk. There is no filtered severe-report map to staff against this afternoon.

The tickets already on the board are water. Gadsden County took 7 to 11 inches before dawn. The St. Mary’s at Macclenny is above flood stage and still rising toward a minor crest. The Shoal River near Crestview is in a flood warning into Thursday night. On the Missouri and Mississippi system, leftover river warnings from earlier rain are still in the text product: the Mississippi River at Louisiana, Missouri, is in a minor flood warning until Wednesday afternoon, and Missouri River points including Chamois and Miami remain in minor flood statements. Those are river-bottom tickets, not a new convective event.

Afternoon pulse

What this means for restoration teams

Treat Florida as a water day with a narrow coastal spin-up rider. Crews in Pinellas and coastal Manatee should know a waterspout can come ashore without a watch. The practical work is still tarps only if a cell actually reaches land, plus extraction where drainage is poor. North Florida and the St. Mary’s basin are the steadier call: saturated soils, poor-drainage streets, and a river that is forecast to crest near 13 feet at Macclenny. Panhandle work in Gadsden and Okaloosa is aftermath. Do not pull plains or Midwest severe boards for this pulse. No hail size is forecast. No damaging-wind probability area is drawn.

Tropical Depression Nine is a planning note, not a today ticket. NHC’s 4 p.m. CDT advisory placed the center near 22.1 N, 95.6 W, about 630 miles southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi River, moving east near 5 mph, with maximum sustained winds near 35 mph. NHC expects a tropical storm by early Wednesday and a hurricane on Thursday, with an approach to the northern Gulf Coast on Friday. That is not a landfall today. Hurricane Rachel, in the eastern Pacific near 20.5 N, 119.5 W and moving west, is not a U.S. land threat.

What this is not

This is not a derecho. This is not a severe-thunderstorm watch. This is not a hurricane on the U.S. coast. SPC did not draw a Slight, Enhanced, or Moderate risk. No tornado warning or severe thunderstorm warning was in the national warning text this afternoon. Do not invent a Gulf landfall for Tuesday. Depression Nine is still in the southwestern Gulf.

Looking ahead one day

The SPC Day 2 convective outlook, issued 12:25 p.m. CDT and valid Wednesday into Wednesday night, has no severe thunderstorm areas. Isolated to scattered storms are possible ahead of a Great Lakes shortwave, across the Florida Peninsula, in south Texas, and from the Four Corners into the central Rockies and central Plains. SPC says no severe threat is expected. The Florida flood risk can linger into Wednesday morning under the current WPC Day 1 window. The tropical system is the item to watch for Friday, not for Wednesday’s severe board. Day 3 also shows no severe areas for Thursday.

Sources

• SPC Day 1 convective outlook, 2000 UTC, October 6, 2026: spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
• SPC Mesoscale Discussion 2346: spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md2346.html
• SPC current watches, no watches valid 21:13 UTC: spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/
• SPC today’s storm reports, October 6, 2026: spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/today.html
• WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook: wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/ero.php
• NWS watches and warnings text: weather.gov
• NHC Tropical Depression Nine Advisory 1, 4 p.m. CDT October 6, 2026: nhc.noaa.gov
• Morning desk: October 6 morning Storm Updates

Informational only — not an official warning. For warnings and forecasts use weather.gov and spc.noaa.gov. Turn around, don’t drown.