Tag: severe thunderstorm warning

Storm Updates: Carolinas Wind Pulse + Upper Mississippi Flood Slight — Friday, September 18, 2026

This is a live Friday afternoon snapshot of U.S. local-storm activity as of Friday, September 18, 2026. The Storm Prediction Center 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook holds a Marginal Risk of isolated severe thunderstorms from the Carolina Piedmont into northern Georgia, northern Iowa, parts of the central High Plains, and parts of the Intermountain West. No convective watches are valid. Mesoscale discussions referenced in the 2000 UTC package (MCDs 2306 and 2307) are no longer in effect. The Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook is the organized ticket: Slight Risk over portions of the Upper Mississippi Valley and a second Slight Risk over southwest Montana. There is no named tropical cyclone in the Atlantic, eastern Pacific, or central Pacific.

These are county- and ZIP-scale thunderstorms and flash-flood pulses, not a mainland hurricane landfall. Restoration exposure this afternoon is wind and trees already verifying across central North Carolina, isolated hail leftover from Intermountain cells, and water tonight from southeast Minnesota into west-central Wisconsin. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What is live this afternoon

SPC issued the 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook at 0241 PM CDT, valid 182000Z–191200Z. Forecasters Chalmers and Wendt made only minor adjustments from the midday package. Headline: an isolated severe risk continues for portions of the Carolinas into northern Georgia and parts of the Intermountain West. Isolated severe storms are also forecast later today across portions of northern Iowa and parts of the central High Plains. Risk-area population centers listed by SPC include Charlotte, Atlanta, Raleigh, Greensboro, and Durham. Categorical risk is Marginal only. No Slight Risk on Day 1. No tornado probabilities in the 2000 UTC categorical headline. Risk-area size on the 2000 UTC graphic is about 179,316 square miles covering roughly 19.6 million people.

Current convective watches: none. SPC watch page last updated 1805 UTC Friday: no watches currently valid. Most recently issued watch remains Severe Thunderstorm Watch 669, already expired. Do not treat 669 as a live product.

The 2000 UTC discussion points to MCDs 2306 and 2307 for additional information. By late afternoon the live MD list showed no mesoscale discussions currently in effect. Most recently issued discussion on the current-MD page was 2305. Treat those numbers as the latest issued discussions, not standing watches.

WPC Day 1 excessive-rainfall language valid 16Z Friday through 12Z Saturday holds Slight Risk for portions of the Upper Mississippi Valley and southwest Montana. The 16Z update expanded the eastern edge of the Slight and high-end Slight about one to two counties into southeast Wisconsin and northeast Illinois, where recent heavy rain left the ground sensitive. Highest amounts still focus over southeast Minnesota and west-central Wisconsin, with model-consensus QPF in the 2 to 4 inch range. A separate Slight Risk covers southwest Montana. Marginal Risk remains over South Florida and the Keys, a remnant Intermountain/Southwest terrain corridor, a Northern Plains strip, and a thin Ohio Valley pocket. WPC’s short-range discussion already flags a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall Saturday over parts of the Upper Great Lakes into the Middle Mississippi Valley. That is tomorrow’s water upgrade, not today’s Day 1 map.

Hotspot 1 — Carolina Piedmont into northern Georgia

A wavy stationary front this morning ran from southern Illinois through southern Indiana and southern Ohio into southwest Pennsylvania. Decaying showers preceded it from southern Illinois into northern Kentucky. The boundary is shifting south as cooler air follows a shortwave through southern Quebec and the Canadian Maritimes. The front is relatively weak, but it is interacting with a warm, moist, diurnally destabilized airmass across the Carolina Piedmont and northern Georgia. Precipitable water is over 2 inches. Vertical shear is weak. Storm mode is outflow-dominant. The risk is occasionally strong downbursts, not a long-lived supercell corridor.

That language already verified this afternoon. Preliminary LSRs on the 18/1200Z cycle include a 69 mph gust at KGSO (5 ESE Colfax, Guilford County), a 66 mph gust at KFAY (4 ENE Hope Mills, Cumberland County), trees down on I-85 near Route 68, trees blocking roads in Randolph, Davie, Iredell, Rowan, Chatham, and Moore counties, and a power-company outage from downed trees northwest of Craven in Rowan County. Those are trees-on-pavement and trees-on-wires tickets in the Charlotte–Greensboro–Fayetteville corridor, not a watch-scale outbreak.

Restoration read: wind first. Stage tree, tarp, and board-up capacity for the Piedmont counties that already have LSRs. Hail is not the lead threat on this corridor. Water is secondary unless a cell trains over the same ZIP that already took a 2-inch precipitable-water plume.

Hotspot 2 — Upper Mississippi Valley water

A Northern Plains disturbance continues east from the Dakotas across southern Minnesota into Wisconsin tonight. WPC keeps the Slight Risk and high-end Slight focused on southeast Minnesota and west-central Wisconsin, with the eastern edge nudged into southeast Wisconsin and northeast Illinois because those counties already took rain. Local NWS language from La Crosse this afternoon still has 1–3 inches likely and 4–6 inches possible in pockets, with a Flood Watch south of I-94 and rivers such as the Kickapoo at Gays Mills and Viola and the Cedar at Charles City expected to reach minor flood stage if the heavier corridor verifies.

SPC’s northern Iowa Marginal is a separate overlay: elevated storms tonight on warm-air advection and a moderate low-level jet, with isolated hail the primary severe hazard and a strong gust or two if any linear structures develop. That is hail and wind on the southern edge of the water corridor, not a Slight Risk severe day.

Restoration read: water first from southeast Minnesota through west-central Wisconsin into northeast Iowa tonight. Extraction and wet-drywall clocks start the same night if water is inside. Do not send the same crew to a Piedmont tree job and a Kickapoo basement without checking which county has a warning now.

Hotspot 3 — Intermountain West and central High Plains

A shortwave trough continues east into southern Idaho and northern Utah. Highs stay relatively cool — upper 60s in southern Idaho, low to mid 70s in northern Utah — but cold temperatures aloft plus strong deep-layer shear still support organized updrafts. Isolated severe gusts and small hail remain the SPC language. That already verified on today’s LSR cycle: 1.50-inch hail 2 W of Kaysville in Davis County, Utah, and quarter-size hail near Farmington in San Juan County, New Mexico.

On the High Plains, a mid-level vorticity maximum lifting north-northeast later this evening may support isolated severe gusts and a conditional, less-than-5-percent hail risk if a more cellular mode holds into better low-level moisture near the Colorado–Nebraska–Kansas border. Storms may grow upscale into a small eastward-moving cluster this evening. Isolated outflow surges, not a derecho.

Restoration read: hail first if cells verify over the Wasatch Front or the Four Corners. Wind second if High Plains clusters organize. Flash-flood risk on this corridor is Marginal to isolated except for the separate southwest Montana Slight Risk, where WPC introduced Slight coverage after Thursday’s cell behavior and 0.5–1.5 inch guidance.

Just hit

SPC preliminary storm reports for the current 18/1200Z–19/1159Z cycle already include one brief landspout at Lighthouse Point in Broward County, Florida (palm fronds lofted; no damage path described as a supercell tornado), quarter to 1.50-inch hail in San Juan County, New Mexico, and Davis County, Utah, and a long list of North Carolina wind reports from Davie, Guilford, Randolph, Cumberland, Iredell, Rowan, Chatham, and Moore counties, including measured 69 mph at Greensboro and 66 mph at Fayetteville.

The last 24-hour ticket pile on the prior cycle (17/1200Z–18/1159Z) is the Idaho hail outbreak the morning desk already logged: tennis-ball hail (2.50 inches) near Rose in Bingham County, golf-ball hail in Blackfoot and Shelley, quarter to 1.25-inch hail across Bingham, Blaine, Jefferson, and Bear Lake counties, plus 1.50-inch hail at Midway, Wasatch County, Utah, and 1.50-inch hail near Broadwater, Morrill County, Nebraska. Wind on that cycle included power lines down at Lewisville, Jefferson County, Idaho; a 61 mph gust south-southwest of Mud Lake; trees in Beavercreek, Greene County, Ohio; a tree-fall injury in Ashland, Boyd County, Kentucky; and trees in Tippecanoe and Carroll counties, Indiana. A brief tornado touchdown was reported 11 NNE of Chappell in Garden County, Nebraska. Those products are expired. The roofs and cars in Bingham County are still the ticket.

This morning’s Storm Tracker already covered the 1300 UTC outlook family. This afternoon desk updates to the 2000 UTC package, confirms still-zero watches, and adds the live North Carolina LSR cluster and the WPC 16Z flood-edge nudge into southeast Wisconsin and northeast Illinois.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS / WPC level	Status this afternoon
Carolina Piedmont / northern GA	Downburst wind, trees, wires	SPC Marginal	Live — LSRs already in
SE MN / west-central WI / NE IA	Flash flood, 2–4″ swaths	WPC Slight (high-end core)	Tonight’s organized water ticket
Northern Iowa / far southern MN	Isolated hail, isolated gusts	SPC Marginal	Elevated storms tonight
Southern ID / northern UT / Four Corners	Isolated hail and severe gusts	SPC Marginal	Live cells; 1.50″ hail at Kaysville
Central High Plains	Isolated severe gusts	SPC Marginal	Evening cluster if heating holds
Southwest Montana	Flash flood, 0.5–1.5″	WPC Slight	Diurnal terrain cells
South Florida / Keys	Urban flooding, landspout noise	WPC Marginal	Diurnal; one brief landspout LSR
Bingham County ID (overnight)	Tennis-ball to golf-ball hail	LSRs prior cycle	Just-hit
Atlantic / Gulf vs. U.S. mainland	No named cyclone	NHC: no tropical cyclones	Quiet on the mainland coast

What this means for restoration teams

The live ticket this afternoon is wind on the Carolina Piedmont: trees, wires, and a measured 66–69 mph pair at Greensboro and Fayetteville. Isolated Intermountain hail is a roof and auto-glass survey if cells keep firing over the Wasatch Front or Farmington, New Mexico. The organized ticket tonight is still water from southeast Minnesota through west-central Wisconsin. Idaho’s overnight tennis-ball hail around Blackfoot, Rose, and Shelley is a separate just-hit staffing problem from this afternoon’s Piedmont wind.

For teams near the Carolina Marginal: the warnings and LSRs are already out. Photograph damage in daylight if it is safe, call the carrier, and start extraction the same night if water is inside. Turn around, don’t drown on Upper Mississippi and Montana washes.

What this is not

This is not a Slight Risk severe day, not a live convective watch, and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. MCDs 2306 and 2307 are not watches. The Broward landspout is a brief landspout LSR, not a tornado outbreak. NHC reports no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, eastern Pacific, or central Pacific as of this afternoon. The work, if it keeps verifying, will be scattered: a tree swath through a Piedmont county, a hail report on the Wasatch Front, and heavier rain over southeast Minnesota and west-central Wisconsin tonight.

Looking ahead

SPC Day 2 (Saturday) holds a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms late Saturday afternoon and evening from northwest Oklahoma into eastern Kansas, with more isolated severe storms possible across the central High Plains, central Rockies, and the Midwest to Southeast. The 1730 UTC Day 2 summary calls for scattered severe wind and hail-producing storms on the central Plains. WPC already has a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall Saturday over parts of the Upper Great Lakes into the Middle Mississippi Valley. The next Storm Tracker update should re-check the 0100 UTC Day 1 outlook, any new watches, and whether that Moderate flood risk is the morning headline rather than assuming today’s Marginal stays the last word.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center Sep 18, 2026 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook (Chalmers/Wendt); Day 2 Convective Outlook; current convective watches (none valid; last issued Watch 669); current mesoscale discussions (none in effect); SPC preliminary storm reports for the 20260918 cycle and 20260917 cycle; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (Campbell, 332 PM EDT Fri Sep 18, 2026); National Hurricane Center Tropical Weather Outlook, September 18, 2026 (no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, eastern Pacific, or central Pacific).

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watch, MD, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay. Morning desk for this calendar day: Storm Updates: Carolinas–Georgia + Iowa Marginal, Upper Mississippi Flood Slight — Friday, September 18, 2026 (Morning).

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

September 18, 2026

Storm Updates: Idaho–Utah Marginal, Dakotas Flood Slight — Thursday, September 17, 2026

This is a live Thursday afternoon snapshot of U.S. local-storm activity as of Thursday, September 17, 2026. The Storm Prediction Center 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook holds a Marginal Risk of isolated severe wind gusts and hail this afternoon and evening over parts of Idaho and Utah and a small part of the central High Plains. No convective watches are valid. Mesoscale Discussion 2304 covers southern and central Idaho with a 20 percent chance of a watch. The Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook remains the organized ticket: Slight Risk over portions of the north-central Plains and Midwest and over the southwestern U.S. There is no named tropical cyclone in the Atlantic, eastern Pacific, or central Pacific.

These are county- and ZIP-scale thunderstorms and flash-flood pulses, not a mainland hurricane landfall. Restoration exposure this afternoon is isolated hail and wind if cells verify over the Snake River Plain and Wasatch Front, plus water from the Wyoming Front Range across South Dakota into southwest Minnesota and leftover Southwest terrain. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What is live this afternoon

SPC issued the 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook at 0247 PM CDT, valid 172000Z–181200Z. Forecasters Chalmers and Weinman made no changes from the midday package. Headline: thunderstorms with isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be possible over parts of the Intermountain West this afternoon and evening. A few strong to severe gusts may also occur across portions of the central High Plains. Risk-area population centers listed by SPC include Salt Lake City, West Valley City, Provo, West Jordan, and Orem. Categorical risk is Marginal only. No Slight Risk. No tornado probabilities in the 2000 UTC package. The Ohio Valley Marginal from Wednesday remains off the map.

Current convective watches: none. SPC watch page last updated 2059 UTC Thursday: no watches currently valid. Most recently issued watch remains Severe Thunderstorm Watch 669, already expired. Do not treat 669 as a live product.

MCD 2304, issued 0246 PM CDT and valid 1946Z–2215Z, covers parts of southern and central Idaho. Concerning: severe potential, watch unlikely. Probability of watch issuance: 20 percent. Summary: the risk of a few severe storms capable of producing large hail and severe wind gusts will increase through the remainder of the afternoon. Most probable peak wind gust 55–70 mph. Most probable peak hail size 1.00–1.75 inches. Offices tagged: Pocatello, Missoula, Boise. By late afternoon the live MD list showed no mesoscale discussions currently in effect; treat 2304 as the latest issued discussion, not a standing watch.

WPC Day 1 excessive-rainfall language valid 12Z Thursday through 12Z Friday still has two Slight Risk corridors. One is a high-end Slight across much of South Dakota, expanding toward Sioux Falls and into southwestern Minnesota and northwest Iowa, and west-southwest to the Cheyenne, Wyoming region east of the Laramie Range. The other holds Slight Risk over New Mexico and eastern Arizona into the San Juans and western Colorado, with Marginal coverage into the Salt Lake corridor and southeastern Idaho. Wednesday’s Moderate Risk over southern and central Arizona is aftermath, not a live upgrade.

Hotspot 1 — Southern and central Idaho into northern Utah

Morning water vapor showed an upper low over northern California with a band of strong flow aloft and embedded shortwave troughs across Nevada into Utah and Idaho. Strong heating was expected to aid scattered thunderstorms from southern Idaho into northern Utah by mid-afternoon. Sufficient vertical shear is present for rotating updrafts capable of large hail and gusty or damaging winds. Coverage is limited. SPC still expects one or two severe cells later today, mainly over the eastern Snake River Plain. The 18Z Boise sounding in MCD 2304 sampled steep deep-layer lapse rates and an elongating, mostly straight hodograph with about 30–40 kt of cloud-layer shear. Cells first. Small clusters later if outflow organizes.

Overnight LSRs already put quarter-size hail at Huntington in Emery County and at East Carbon and Sunnyside in Carbon County. That is the same Salt Lake City forecast office that owns this afternoon’s Utah cells.

Restoration read: hail first if discrete cells fire over the Snake River Plain, Boise, Pocatello, or the Wasatch Front. Wind second if storms cluster. Stage roof and auto-glass survey capacity before the first warning, not after. Flash-flood risk on this corridor is Marginal to isolated, not the organized Dakotas ticket.

Hotspot 2 — Dakotas water corridor and the High Plains wind overlay

Remnants of a weak tropical low tracked northeast across the Four Corners this morning. Ample moisture and weak ascent support considerable clouds and scattered thunderstorms over the Colorado mountains and southern Wyoming, spreading east into eastern Colorado and western Nebraska and Kansas. High-based convection poses a risk of locally damaging wind gusts. Daytime heating is the limiter because of lingering cloud cover. That is the SPC Marginal overlay: isolated gusts, not a Slight Risk wind event.

WPC is more organized here than SPC. A tropical-origin shortwave ejecting out of Arizona pivots through the central Rockies and into the northern Plains tonight. Precipitable-water anomalies approach the 95th–99th percentile from South Dakota into southern Minnesota by the end of the period. Discussion language includes 2–4 inches, locally higher, with HREF neighborhood probabilities of greater than 2 inches at 50–80 percent across a large High Plains swath. The centroid of greater-than-3-inch probabilities sits just east and southeast of Rapid City into Badlands National Park. The Slight Risk was expanded east toward Sioux Falls for the last 6–8 hours of the forecast.

Restoration read: water first from the Wyoming Front Range across western and central South Dakota into southwest Minnesota and northwest Iowa tonight into Friday morning. Wind second if High Plains clusters organize. Do not send one crew to both a Cheyenne gust and a Rapid City wash without checking which county has a warning now.

Hotspot 3 — Southwest terrain leftover plus Ohio just-hit

The shortwave that drove Wednesday’s Arizona Moderate flood risk is leaving. WPC still keeps a Slight Risk over New Mexico and eastern Arizona into the San Juans and Sacramentos. Guidance still prints 1–3 inches on the Sangre de Cristos, San Juans, and interior New Mexico terrain. Sacramento Mountains burn-scar sensitivity remains in the discussion as locally Moderate impacts embedded inside a higher-end Slight. That is runoff on ground that already took water Wednesday, not a new Moderate upgrade.

Ohio is off today’s SPC Marginal. It is the just-hit desk. Overnight LSRs from the 16/1200Z–17/1159Z window include multiple trees down in Versailles and Piqua, a snapped hardwood onto a home awning in Darke County, barn sheet-metal loss and a blown silo near West Alexandria in Preble County, and trees and wires southeast of Mansfield in Richland County. NWS Cleveland had severe thunderstorm warnings into mid-evening Wednesday for Richland, Ashland, Holmes, and Knox counties. Those products are expired. The trees are still on the lines.

Just hit

SPC preliminary storm reports for the current 17/1200Z–18/1159Z cycle show no tornado, hail, or wind reports as of this afternoon desk. That is expected. The Intermountain and High Plains threats are still an afternoon and evening problem.

The last 24-hour ticket pile sits on the prior cycle (16/1200Z–17/1159Z): no tornadoes. Hail: 1.00 inch at Huntington, Emery County, Utah; 1.00 inch at East Carbon and Sunnyside, Carbon County, Utah; 1.00 to 1.25 inches near Linn Creek, Camden County, Missouri, with two-foot-diameter limbs down. Wind: downed power lines in Mesa, Maricopa County, Arizona; trees in Versailles, Darke County, and Piqua and Lockington, Miami County, Ohio; a snapped pole and large limb near Broken Arrow, Tulsa County, Oklahoma; a power line and a condo-garage roof near Osage Beach and Linn Creek, Missouri; barn roofing and a grain silo near West Alexandria, Preble County, Ohio; trees and wires southeast of Mansfield.

This morning’s Storm Tracker already covered the same outlook family at 1300 UTC. This afternoon desk updates to the 2000 UTC package, adds MCD 2304, and confirms still-zero watches and still-zero LSRs on today’s cycle.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS / WPC level	Status this afternoon
Southern / central ID into northern UT	Isolated hail and severe gusts; possible small clusters	SPC Marginal; MCD 2304 watch unlikely	Live afternoon–evening cells
NE CO / western NE / High Plains	Isolated severe gusts	SPC Marginal	Late afternoon clusters if heating punches
WY Front Range / SD / SW MN / NW IA	Flash flood, 2–4″ swaths	WPC Slight (high-end over SD)	Today’s organized water ticket
NM / E AZ / San Juans / Sacramentos	Flash flood, burn-scar debris flow	WPC Slight; leftover from Wed Moderate	Diurnal terrain cells
Western / north-central OH	Trees, wires, barn and roof damage	LSRs overnight; warnings expired	Just-hit
Emery / Carbon UT; Camden MO	Quarter to half-dollar hail	LSRs overnight	Just-hit / same offices own today’s risk
Atlantic / Gulf vs. U.S. mainland	No named cyclone	NHC: no tropical cyclones	Quiet on the mainland coast

What this means for restoration teams

Isolated severe hail on the Snake River Plain and Wasatch Front is a roof and auto-glass survey ticket if cells verify over Boise, Pocatello, Salt Lake, or Provo. Isolated High Plains gusts are tree, siding, and gutter work in a thin corridor. The organized ticket today is still water from the Wyoming Front Range across South Dakota into southwest Minnesota and northwest Iowa tonight. Flash flooding on leftover Arizona–New Mexico terrain is wet drywall and a same-night extraction clock if water is inside a structure that already took rain Wednesday. Ohio trees-on-wires from last night are a separate staffing problem from this afternoon’s West.

For teams near the Intermountain Marginal: stage before mid-afternoon local. Property owners should photograph damage in daylight if it is safe, call the carrier, and start extraction the same night if water is inside. Turn around, don’t drown on High Plains and Southwest washes.

What this is not

This is not a Slight Risk severe day, not a live convective watch, and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. MCD 2304 is watch-unlikely, not a watch. NHC reports no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, eastern Pacific, or central Pacific as of this afternoon. The work, if it verifies, will be scattered: a hail swath through an Idaho or Utah county, a gust cluster on the High Plains, and heavier rain over South Dakota terrain tonight.

Looking ahead

SPC Day 2 (Friday, 1730 UTC package) holds Marginal Risk of isolated severe storms across parts of Idaho and Utah, Nebraska and Iowa, and the Piedmont of the Carolinas into north Georgia. Population centers listed on that outlook include Charlotte, Atlanta, Omaha, Lincoln, and Greensboro. WPC’s Day 1 water corridor over the Dakotas is the bridge into the Plains Marginal. The next Storm Tracker update should re-check the 0100 UTC Day 1 outlook and any new watches rather than assuming this afternoon’s Marginal stays the last word.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center Sep 17, 2026 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook (Chalmers/Weinman); Mesoscale Discussion 2304 (Weinman/Hart); current convective watches (none valid; last issued Watch 669); SPC preliminary storm reports for the 20260917 cycle and 20260916 cycle; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (Kleebauer); National Hurricane Center Tropical Weather Outlook, September 17, 2026; NWS warning text archive including Cleveland OH overnight products now expired.

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watch, MD, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay. Morning desk for this calendar day: Storm Updates: Intermountain West + High Plains Marginal, Dakotas Flood Slight — Thursday, September 17, 2026 (Morning).

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

September 17, 2026

Storm Updates: Kansas–Missouri Flood Moderate, Plains–Midwest Marginal — Tuesday, September 15, 2026

This is a live Tuesday afternoon snapshot of local storm-type events across the United States as of Tuesday, September 15, 2026. The Storm Prediction Center 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook keeps a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms from the south-central Plains into parts of the Midwest. No convective watches are in effect. The organized story this afternoon is water: the Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook holds a Moderate Risk from northeastern Kansas into northwest Missouri, with a high-end Slight Risk wrapping the Kansas City metro and I-70 corridor.

These are county- and ZIP-scale thunderstorms, not a mainland hurricane landfall. Restoration exposure tonight is flash-flood water first, then isolated wind-driven roof and tree work where the front fires cells. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What is live this afternoon

SPC issued the 2000 UTC Day 1 outlook at 2:55 p.m. CDT Tuesday, September 15, 2026, valid through 7:00 a.m. CDT Wednesday. The categorical call is Marginal. Population centers listed in the risk area include Indianapolis, Kansas City, Wichita, St. Louis, and Toledo. Summary language: strong to locally severe thunderstorms may occur from the south-central Plains into parts of the Midwest this afternoon and evening, with at least isolated damaging wind gusts possible. SPC explicitly opted against a categorical upgrade. As of the SPC watches page update Tuesday afternoon, no watches are currently valid. The most recently issued watch was Tornado Watch 669 on Monday.

Mesoscale Discussion 2300, issued 1:59 p.m. CDT, covered the Texas Panhandle into central Kansas. Watch issuance probability was 20 percent. Language: thunderstorm coverage increasing; sporadic strong gusts, with a locally greater chance of 50–65 mph from northwest Oklahoma into south-central and east-central Kansas. Most probable peak wind up to 60 mph; hail up to 1.25 inches. A watch was not anticipated. By late afternoon the current-MCD page showed no mesoscale discussions in effect.

WPC’s Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, updated 1556 UTC Tuesday and valid 16 UTC Tuesday through 12 UTC Wednesday, is the higher-confidence overlay. Moderate Risk covers portions of northeastern Kansas into northwest Missouri and clips far southeast Nebraska along the Missouri River. Guidance supports 2–3 inch areal averages and locally 3–5 inches from just north of Topeka toward St. Joseph. Flash-flood guidance is already low after morning rain. A high-end Slight Risk surrounds that core, including the Kansas City metro and I-70. A separate Slight Risk remains over eastern Arizona and western New Mexico on monsoon-style cells.

National Hurricane Center: no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic. Tropical Depression Fifteen-E is weakening well out in the eastern Pacific (about 15.7°N, 125.0°W, 30 mph). Post-tropical Norbert is a remnant low far from U.S. land. Neither threatens the U.S. mainland this afternoon.

Hotspot 1 — Northeast Kansas into northwest Missouri

This is the live flood desk. WPC broadened the Moderate Risk on the 16Z update to match an uptick in amounts and coverage near the Kansas–Nebraska–northwest Missouri juncture. Cold front slides southeast; best heavy-rain window is late afternoon through overnight as the low-level jet injects moisture along a boundary-parallel flow. Neighborhood probabilities for greater than 1 inch per hour have run 40–70 percent for several hours in the core.

Cities and counties to watch: Topeka and northeastern Kansas counties north of I-70; St. Joseph and neighboring northwest Missouri counties; far southeast Nebraska along the Missouri River; the Kansas City metro on the high-end Slight, not inside the Moderate core but close enough that a southward shift matters.

Restoration read: water first. Stage extractors and drying kits for basements, slab leaks, and low-water crossings that fail after dark. Morning rain already lowered flash-flood guidance. Photograph interiors only if it is safe. Do not treat Kansas City the same as St. Joseph without checking which county has a warning now.

Hotspot 2 — South-central Kansas, northern Missouri, and the cold-front wind line

SPC’s 20Z update said locally greater potential for a couple of damaging or severe wind gusts may exist across south-central Kansas and northern Missouri where guidance shows greater storm coverage on the cold front. Enhanced deep-layer shear is displaced north of the boundary; better thermodynamics sit farther south. That split is why the outlook stayed Marginal. Earlier MCD 2300 language pointed at northwest Oklahoma into south-central and east-central Kansas for 50–65 mph gusts if cells organize.

Cities and counties to watch: Wichita and south-central Kansas; northwest Oklahoma; northern Missouri counties along and north of the front; scattered cells from the Texas Panhandle east-northeast toward Illinois as convective temperatures are reached.

Restoration read: isolated wind, not a line you staff like a Slight-plus-watch night. Tarps and tree crews if a Severe Thunderstorm Warning verifies. Hail is secondary and limited by warm temperatures aloft.

Hotspot 3 — Four Corners / Southwest rain and leftover Plains wind tickets

Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms had formed across the Four Corners by about 1930 UTC. SPC notes weak buoyancy in a deep, well-mixed boundary layer — enough for an isolated strong to perhaps severe cell, not a concentrated severe area. WPC keeps a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over eastern Arizona and the western half of New Mexico, with locally 2–3 inches in the hardest terrain.

Yesterday’s organized wind corridor is already tickets. SPC storm reports for the 1200 UTC September 14–15 window include measured gusts of 87 mph near Guide Rock, Nebraska; 83 mph near Smith Center, Kansas; 77 mph near Amy, Kansas; 76 mph near Beatrice, Nebraska; 75 mph near Elmwood, Nebraska; plus trees and power lines in Cass and Lancaster Counties, Nebraska, Clarinda and Ames, Iowa, and other High Plains points. Today’s 1200 UTC-forward LSR page still showed no tornado, hail, or wind reports as of this afternoon scan. That can change after dark.

Restoration read: Southwest is flash-flood and outflow in terrain. Nebraska–Kansas–Iowa wind from Monday night is roof, siding, and tree-on-drop work already on the books.

Just hit

Monday evening’s Tornado Watch 669 (western into central Iowa, far northwest Missouri, eastern Nebraska, effective 4:50 p.m. until midnight CDT Monday) is closed. The gust and tree reports listed above are that corridor. Iowa river and urban water from the last two days can still be in the channel even if today’s new Moderate Risk sits farther southwest. Today’s new work, if it verifies, is flash flooding on the Kansas–Missouri Moderate Risk plus isolated wind along the front. No new U.S. mainland tropical landfall.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS level	Status this afternoon
NE Kansas / NW Missouri / SE Nebraska	Flash flood, training heavy rain	WPC Moderate excessive rainfall	Live flood overlay; evening peak
Kansas City / I-70 corridor	Heavy rain, urban flooding	WPC high-end Slight	Watch the southward shift
South-central KS / N Missouri / NW OK	Isolated damaging wind	SPC Marginal; MCD 2300 watch unlikely	No watch; scattered cells
Plains–Midwest Marginal envelope	Isolated wind, lightning	SPC Marginal (~166,470 sq mi)	Disorganized vs Monday night
Eastern AZ / western NM	Flash flood, strong outflow	WPC Slight	Afternoon–overnight terrain cells
NE / KS / IA just-hit wind	Roof, trees, service drops	Monday Watch 669 closed	Aftermath tickets
Atlantic / Gulf vs. U.S. mainland	No landfalling tropical cyclone	NHC quiet on the mainland	Quiet

What this means for restoration teams

Water on a Moderate Risk with already-wet ground is wet drywall and a 24–48 hour mold clock, plus vehicles in flooded crossings. Isolated 50–65 mph gusts are roof, siding, gutter, and tree-on-structure work in a single county, not a regional wind event. Monday night’s 70–87 mph measured gusts in southern Nebraska and north-central Kansas are the jobs already called in.

For teams near Topeka, St. Joseph, and Kansas City: stage extraction before the overnight training window, not after the first flooded intersection. Property owners should photograph damage if it is safe, call the carrier, and start extraction the same night if water is inside. Turn around, don’t drown.

What this is not

This is not a regional derecho and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. SPC did not upgrade to Slight. No convective watch is out this afternoon. Tropical Depression Fifteen-E and remnant Norbert are Pacific and offshore. The work tonight, if it comes, will be scattered: a flooded county in northeast Kansas or northwest Missouri, an isolated wind swath on the front, leftover tree jobs from Monday night. That is the local-storm pattern this desk should staff.

Looking ahead

SPC Day 2 remains generally quieter on organized severe over the central United States. A Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms is flagged Wednesday morning across the Great Salt Lake / Salt Lake City vicinity. Along the remnant front from the Ohio Valley into the lower Missouri Valley, scattered strong storms are possible Wednesday afternoon in weak shear, without a 5 percent severe-wind area on the 0600 UTC Day 2 package. Day 3 language available this afternoon showed no severe thunderstorms. Watch the next Storm Tracker update rather than assuming tonight’s flood core is the last line of the week.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources dated Tuesday, September 15, 2026: NOAA Storm Prediction Center 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook (issued 2:55 p.m. CDT); SPC Current Watches page (no watches valid; last watch 669); Mesoscale Discussion 2300; SPC storm reports for 20260914 and 20260915; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook updated 1556 UTC; National Hurricane Center public page as of 21:06 UTC. Morning desk on the same calendar day: Storm Updates, Tuesday morning, September 15, 2026.

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watches, MCDs, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

September 15, 2026

Storm Updates: Eastern Nebraska–Iowa Slight Risk, Watch 668 Kansas–Nebraska, Iowa Flood Moderate — Monday, September 14, 2026

This is a live Monday afternoon snapshot of local storm-type events across the United States as of Monday, September 14, 2026. The Storm Prediction Center 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook holds a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms across northern Kansas and southern and eastern Nebraska into western and central Iowa. Severe Thunderstorm Watch 668, issued at 3:45 p.m. CDT, covers western and northern Kansas and south-central Nebraska until 10:00 p.m. CDT. The Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, valid 12 UTC Monday through 12 UTC Tuesday, keeps a Moderate Risk over portions of central and southwestern Iowa.

These are county-scale thunderstorms and flash-flood pulses, not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. Restoration exposure tonight is wind-driven roof and tree work in the watch, isolated hail, a conditional tornado in the eastern Nebraska–western Iowa corridor if a surface-based supercell holds, and interior water where Iowa cells train. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What is live this afternoon

Watch 668 is the organized wind desk. SPC issued it at 3:45 p.m. CDT Monday, September 14, 2026, for portions of western and northern Kansas and south-central Nebraska, effective until 10:00 p.m. CDT. Primary threat language is scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80 mph, plus isolated large hail to 1.5 inches. High-based storms are expected to continue in a hot, well-mixed environment and spread northeast near a pre-frontal trough.

The 2000 UTC Day 1 outlook, issued 3:00 p.m. CDT by Karstens and Wendt, did not change the categorical Slight Risk. Summary language: scattered strong to severe thunderstorms should occur across parts of eastern Nebraska into western and central Iowa this afternoon and evening. Large hail, severe wind gusts, and tornadoes all appear possible. Severe thunderstorm winds will also be possible across northern and western Kansas. An 18z Omaha sounding showed about 2,232 J/kg MUCAPE as destablization spread north into central and eastern Nebraska. SPC still expects an elongated area of convection from north-central Kansas into south-central and eastern Nebraska and west-central Iowa, favoring supercells early, then a quick transition to clusters and line segments. Exact initiation remains uncertain in recent HRRR and RRFS runs. No SPC mesoscale discussion was in effect as of mid-afternoon UTC; Watch 668 is the current watch product.

WPC’s Day 1 excessive-rainfall discussion, issued 3:40 a.m. EDT Monday, September 14, 2026, maintains a Moderate Risk over portions of central and southwestern Iowa, coordinated with the Des Moines forecast office. HREF blended-mean QPF of 3–5 inches is cited near Des Moines and points south and southwest, with neighborhood probabilities of 60–80 percent for more than 3 inches and 3-hour flash-flood-guidance exceedance probabilities of 50–70 percent. A broad Slight Risk still covers much of the Midwest from the Door Peninsula through eastern Nebraska, plus a separate Slight Risk over the Southwest west of the I-25 corridor.

Hotspot 1 — Eastern Nebraska into western and central Iowa

This is the Slight Risk core. SPC places 5 percent tornado probabilities over parts of eastern Nebraska near Omaha, Lincoln, Council Bluffs, Bellevue, and Fremont, with 2 percent tornado probabilities extending toward Des Moines, Sioux City, Ames, West Des Moines, and Ankeny. Fifteen-percent wind and hail contours overlap the Omaha–Lincoln–Council Bluffs corridor. A 40–50 kt nocturnal low-level jet is forecast to increase effective storm-relative helicity this evening. SPC notes lingering low-level inhibition on RAP soundings and says it remains unclear whether convection will fully tap that shear. A sustained surface-based supercell in that environment would conditionally be capable of a strong tornado. Weak instability farther east in eastern Iowa should limit the severe risk deeper into the night.

Cities and counties to watch: Omaha, Lincoln, Bellevue, Fremont, and Council Bluffs; Sioux City, Fort Dodge, Ames, Des Moines, West Des Moines, and Ankeny; counties along and just ahead of the cold front from southeast Nebraska into west-central Iowa.

Restoration read: wind and hail first if supercells hold, then water if the same cells train on the WPC Moderate footprint. Stage tarps, generators, and extraction pumps before dark. Treat a tornado warning as a narrow local survey, not a regional event.

Hotspot 2 — Watch 668: western and northern Kansas, south-central Nebraska

The watch box runs roughly 45 miles north and south of a line from 145 miles southwest of Hill City, Kansas, to 50 miles east of Hastings, Nebraska. That is high-based, mixed-layer convection along the pre-frontal trough, not the same supercell corridor as Omaha. Primary threats are damaging wind, isolated 80 mph gusts, and hail to about 1.5 inches through 10:00 p.m. CDT.

Cities and counties to watch: Hill City, Hays, and northern Kansas counties in the watch outline; Hastings, Grand Island, and south-central Nebraska counties in and near the box. Confirm the county list on the Watch 668 outline update at SPC before you pre-position.

Restoration read: dry-microburst and outflow wind on roofs, siding, and center-pivot country. Photograph in remaining daylight only if it is safe. Hail claims will be isolated, not a swath unless a cell stays surface-based longer than expected.

Hotspot 3 — Central and southwestern Iowa flood Moderate, plus Southwest rain

The flood desk is Iowa. WPC introduced a small Moderate Risk for this Day 1 period because CAM guidance clustered 3–6 inch totals south of I-80, with urban streets and low-water crossings the first failures. A broader Slight Risk still covers eastern Nebraska through much of the Midwest. Expectation is scattered flash flooding tonight into early Tuesday morning.

The Southwest Slight Risk covers eastern Arizona, much of New Mexico west of I-25, and southwestern Colorado. PWATs are cited near the 95th–99th percentile. That is monsoon-style heavy rain on complex terrain and remnant burn scars, plus strong outflow, not the Plains watch.

Restoration read: Iowa is water and a 24–48 hour mold clock if 3-inch cores verify in town. The Southwest is localized washouts and urban flooding, not a CAT roster.

Just hit

SPC storm reports for the 12 UTC Monday, September 14, 2026 through 12 UTC Tuesday window showed no tornado, hail, or wind LSRs at the time of this afternoon desk. That is a quiet start to the convective day, not a forecast of a quiet evening. Last night’s 12 UTC Sunday–Monday window still holds the tickets already on the board: tree and wire work across Ohio, Pennsylvania, New York, and West Virginia from Sunday’s upper Ohio Valley–Northeast line; a roof peeled in Fox Township, Carroll County, Ohio; microburst-style trees and minor roof damage near Cloverport, Hardeman County, Tennessee; 1.00-inch hail near Sterling, Johnson County, Nebraska, and in Cascade and Judith Basin counties, Montana; a 61 mph gust near Patagonia, Arizona.

Sunday’s organized wind corridor is yesterday. Today’s new work, if it verifies, is Watch 668 and the eastern Nebraska–Iowa Slight Risk plus Iowa flash flooding.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS level	Status this afternoon
Eastern NE / western–central IA	Hail, damaging wind, conditional tornado	SPC Slight (2000 UTC)	Live Slight; initiation still uncertain
Western / northern KS, south-central NE	Damaging wind to 80 mph, hail to 1.5 in	Watch 668 to 10 p.m. CDT	Live watch
Central / southwestern Iowa	Flash flood, 3–6 in cores possible	WPC Moderate excessive rainfall	Tonight into Tuesday morning
Midwest Slight (Door Peninsula to eastern NE)	Scattered flash flood	WPC Slight	Overnight
E AZ / NM west of I-25 / SW CO	Heavy rain, outflow, burn-scar flood	WPC Slight	Afternoon–evening cells
Eastern North Carolina	Isolated gusty wind, small hail	Local / no categorical severe area	Isolated
Atlantic / Gulf vs. U.S. mainland	No landfalling tropical cyclone	NHC: no Atlantic TCs	Quiet on the mainland coast

What this means for restoration teams

Watch 668 wind at 65–80 mph is roof, siding, gutter, and tree-on-structure work in Kansas and south-central Nebraska. The Slight Risk east of that box is the same plus a conditional tornado and large hail if a supercell holds from Lincoln–Omaha into western Iowa. Iowa’s Moderate flood risk is wet drywall and a same-night extraction clock if the 3-inch HREF signal verifies south of I-80. Do not send one crew to both the watch box and Des Moines without checking which county has a warning now.

For teams in or near Watch 668: stage before sunset, not after the first warning. Property owners should photograph damage in daylight if it is safe, call the carrier, and start extraction the same night if water is inside.

What this is not

This is not a regional derecho and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. National Hurricane Center products as of Monday afternoon, September 14, 2026, show no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic. Tropical Storm Norbert is in the east-central Pacific about 1,125 miles east of Hilo, Hawaii, with 40 mph winds and a weakening trend. Tropical Depression Fifteen-E is about 785 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Neither threatens U.S. mainland land. The work tonight, if it comes, will be scattered: a wind swath in the Kansas–Nebraska watch, a hail or tornado report in the eastern Nebraska Slight Risk, flooded intersections south of I-80 in Iowa.

Looking ahead

The SPC Day 2 Convective Outlook issued 12:14 p.m. CDT Monday, September 14, 2026 (valid 12 UTC Tuesday through 12 UTC Wednesday) is a Marginal Risk in a corridor from Kansas into western Ohio. Summary language: scattered strong thunderstorms may occur from the Great Lakes southwestward through the lower Missouri Valley Tuesday afternoon and evening, with at least isolated damaging wind gusts possible. Shear is forecast to be weak. Storms should be primarily short-lived, with a few clusters near the front. Watch the next Storm Tracker update rather than assuming Watch 668 is the last line of the week.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources dated Monday, September 14, 2026: NOAA Storm Prediction Center 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook; Severe Thunderstorm Watch 668; SPC current watches and today’s LSR page (no reports in the 12 UTC Monday window at desk time); Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook updated 0733 UTC; National Hurricane Center Atlantic and East Pacific public pages. Morning desk on the same calendar day: Storm Updates: Eastern Nebraska–Iowa Slight Risk, Iowa Flood Moderate — Monday, September 14, 2026 (Morning).

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watch, and LSRs, Watch 668, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

September 14, 2026

Storm Updates: Upper Ohio Valley–Central New York Slight Risk — Sunday, September 13, 2026

This is a live Sunday afternoon snapshot of local storm-type events across the United States as of Sunday, September 13, 2026. The Storm Prediction Center 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook holds a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms from the upper Ohio Valley into central New York, covering about 43,500 square miles and 8.3 million people, with Pittsburgh, Rochester, Akron, Syracuse, and Canton inside the higher contour. A broader Marginal Risk wraps Columbus, Cincinnati, Buffalo, Dayton, and Albany. No convective watches and no mesoscale discussions were in effect on the afternoon check. Restoration exposure this window is wind-driven roof and tree work on the Ohio–Pennsylvania–New York corridor, leftover Saturday water in the Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic, and a separate WPC flood Slight over southern New England plus eastern Kansas into western Missouri.

These are county- and ZIP-scale thunderstorms, not a mainland hurricane landfall. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What is live this afternoon

SPC upgraded portions of the corridor to Slight earlier Sunday with the 1630 UTC package and held that upgrade in the 2000 UTC update issued 2:57 p.m. CDT by forecaster Wendt. The language is isolated to widely scattered severe storms this afternoon and evening, mainly damaging wind along a cold front moving east through the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and Northeast. Deep-layer shear of 35–45 kt is enough for organized bands, short bowing segments, and a few initial supercells. Hail is secondary because lapse rates aloft are only about 6–6.5 C/km. Storms are expected to weaken with eastward extent this evening as nocturnal cooling and a less unstable airmass take over.

As of the afternoon product cycle, SPC listed no watches valid (most recent issued watch was 667 on a prior day) and no mesoscale discussions in effect (most recent MD 2291). Today’s official LSR page covering 1200 UTC September 13 through 1159 UTC September 14 still showed no tornado, hail, or wind reports at the afternoon check — the front had not yet produced a logged severe report in that window.

Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, valid 12 UTC September 13 through 12 UTC September 14 and issued 3:46 a.m. EDT, keeps Slight Risk areas over portions of the Northeast and the Central Plains. Southern New England language focuses on Long Island and coastal Connecticut and Rhode Island, with the threat expected to exit late afternoon. Central Plains language favors eastern Kansas and western Missouri overnight as a low-level jet strengthens. A Marginal Risk remains over the Southern Rockies and Four Corners on monsoon moisture and already-wet soils.

Hotspot 1 — Upper Ohio Valley into central New York

This is the live Slight contour. SPC expects widely scattered thunderstorms along and ahead of the front from parts of Ohio into western New York by mid-afternoon, then a quick eastward sweep across the upper Ohio Valley into the Northeast. Population centers inside the Slight: Pittsburgh, Rochester, Akron, Syracuse, Canton. Marginal ring includes Columbus, Cincinnati, Buffalo, Dayton, Albany.

Counties to watch: Allegheny, Beaver, Butler, Westmoreland, and neighboring southwest Pennsylvania counties; Summit, Stark, Portage, and adjacent northeast Ohio counties; Monroe, Livingston, Ontario, Onondaga, and neighboring western and central New York counties. Lake-effect is not the story — this is a progressive cold-front band.

Restoration read: wind first. Stage tarps, generators, and tree crews before dark even without a watch. If a warning includes heavy rain on soils already wet from Saturday, treat the same ZIP as a water job by morning. Photograph roofs in remaining daylight only if it is safe.

Hotspot 2 — Southern New England flood leftover plus Mid-Atlantic runoff

WPC’s Slight Risk for excessive rainfall over the Northeast is the second desk. Discussion from the 0748 UTC Sunday package: precipitable water up to about 2.25 inches, efficient rainfall rates, and concern for Long Island and coastal Connecticut and Rhode Island through mid-to-late morning into afternoon before the axis exits offshore. Flash Flood Warning text earlier Sunday covered eastern Worcester County, Maryland, including Ocean City and Berlin, with 1–2 inches already down and rates near 2 inches in 30 minutes. That warning window closed in the morning; the afternoon desk treats it as runoff and urban ponding unless a new warning fires.

Saturday’s heavy rain is still in Appalachian channels. Overnight and early-Sunday Flood Warning and Flash Flood Statement text from Charleston, West Virginia, and Pittsburgh referenced lingering high water after 1–6 inches Saturday in pieces of Kanawha, Clay, Braxton, Gilmer, Lewis, Harrison, Doddridge, and southern Clarion County, Pennsylvania. Those are aftermath tickets, not a new Slight Risk.

Restoration read: southern New England is today’s water if cells trained this morning. West Virginia and western Pennsylvania are yesterday’s water still in the street and the basement. Do not send the same crew to both stories without checking which county actually has a warning now.

Hotspot 3 — High Plains scatter and Central Plains flood overnight

SPC keeps isolated strong-to-severe storms possible across parts of the central and northern High Plains this afternoon and evening — southern Wyoming, northeast Colorado, and the Nebraska Panhandle in a modest upslope regime — then elevated storms increasing over western and central South Dakota toward the mid-Missouri Valley late tonight. Hail and gusts are the local threats, not a watch-scale line.

WPC’s second Slight Risk sits on the Central Plains overnight. Guidance favors eastern Kansas and western Missouri, including low-to-moderate chances of more than 3 inches near the Kansas City metro in some 00Z HREF members. That is a Monday-morning extraction desk if cells train on the front.

Restoration read: High Plains is isolated hail and wind. Kansas City–eastern Kansas–western Missouri is the overnight flood watch list, not this afternoon’s Ohio Valley wind list.

Just hit

Saturday’s (September 12, 1200 UTC through Sunday 1159 UTC) preliminary LSRs are already tickets. Kansas carried the hardest wind: Chanute Martin Johnson Airport logged 84 mph at 0545 UTC Sunday; Chanute dispatch reported power outages and tree branches; utility poles went down near Galesburg in Neosho County. Clark County, Kansas, mesonet gusts reached 75 mph near Acres. Cherokee County, Kansas, saw a hangar roof collapse near Hallowell and 70 mph estimated at West Mineral. Perryton, Texas, had 6–8 power poles snapped south of town and an uprooted tree. Kingfisher County, Oklahoma, reported snapped wooden poles and 60–70 mph gusts near Cashion.

Hail: golf-ball (1.75 inch) at Beatrice, Nebraska, and Randall, Kansas; 2.00 inch near Coldwater and Wilmore in south-central Kansas; walnut-size at Holdrege, Nebraska. Pennsylvania already had tree-and-wire work Saturday afternoon across Washington, Allegheny, Jefferson, Westmoreland, Indiana, and Greene counties — including a tree on a house near Spraggs. A landspout was reported near Palm Coast, Florida, and an EF-0 survey was completed east of Spring Grove, Virginia. Those are closed survey items, not today’s Slight Risk.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS level	Status this afternoon
Upper OH Valley / SW PA / central NY	Damaging wind, lightning, isolated hail	SPC Slight (2000 UTC)	Live outlook — no watch
Columbus–Cincinnati–Buffalo ring	Isolated strong wind	SPC Marginal	Conditional
Long Island / coastal CT–RI–SE MA	Flash flood, urban ponding	WPC Slight ERO	Winding down late afternoon
Eastern KS / western MO	Training heavy rain overnight	WPC Slight ERO	Tonight into Monday morning
High Plains / western SD	Isolated hail and gusts	SPC isolated / Marginal	Afternoon–overnight scatter
Four Corners / S Rockies	Heavy rain on wet soils	WPC Marginal	Monsoon-style cells
Saturday KS–OK–TX / PA trees	Wind, hail, trees, poles	LSRs logged	Aftermath / tickets
Atlantic / Gulf vs. U.S. mainland	No landfalling tropical cyclone	NHC quiet Atlantic	Quiet

What this means for restoration teams

A Slight Risk without a watch is still a staffing problem. The corridor from northeast Ohio through southwest Pennsylvania into Rochester and Syracuse can produce a few 58–65 mph gust swaths, trees on service drops, and isolated hail even if coverage stays widely scattered. Saturday’s 84 mph Chanute gust and snapped poles in Neosho, Cherokee, Kingfisher, and Ochiltree counties are already claims. Southern New England and Appalachian runoff is extraction and drying, not a new wind line.

For teams in the Slight: stage before the first warning, not after. Property owners should photograph damage in daylight if it is safe, call the carrier, and start extraction the same night if water is inside. Turn around on flooded Appalachian and Delmarva roads — Saturday and early-Sunday warnings already documented closed pavement.

What this is not

This is not a regional derecho and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. The National Hurricane Center afternoon page showed no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic. Tropical Storm Norbert was moving west over the open eastern Pacific near 18.2°N, 132.7°W with 50 mph winds — not a U.S. land threat. Do not invent a watch that SPC has not issued. The work today, if it verifies, will be scattered: a wind swath through an Ohio, Pennsylvania, or New York county, leftover flood tickets from Saturday, and a possible overnight rain pulse toward Kansas City.

Looking ahead

SPC Day 2 Convective Outlook issued 12:29 p.m. CDT Sunday (valid 12 UTC Monday through 12 UTC Tuesday) places a Slight Risk from southeast Nebraska into western Iowa. Summary language: scattered strong to severe thunderstorms late Monday afternoon into early evening near Omaha, Lincoln, Des Moines, Council Bluffs, and Ames, with a Marginal ring toward Sioux City, Waterloo, and Grand Island. That is Monday’s desk. Tonight’s Ohio Valley–New York band should weaken after dark.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources dated Sunday, September 13, 2026: NOAA Storm Prediction Center 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook; SPC current watches page (none valid); SPC current mesoscale discussions page (none in effect); SPC today’s storm reports (none received in the 13/1200–14/1159 UTC window at afternoon check) and September 12 LSR list; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook updated 0748 UTC; National Hurricane Center public page (no Atlantic tropical cyclones; TS Norbert over the eastern Pacific); National Weather Service watches/warnings text feed.

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watch, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay. Morning desk for this calendar day: Storm Updates: Ohio Valley–Northeast Marginal Risk, Kansas Wind Aftermath — Sunday, September 13, 2026 (Morning).

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

September 13, 2026

Storm Updates: Kansas–Oklahoma Watch 667, Ohio Valley Flood Pulse — Saturday, September 12, 2026

This is a live Saturday afternoon snapshot of local storm-type events across the United States as of Saturday, September 12, 2026. The organized pulse is on the south-central Plains. The Storm Prediction Center holds a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of the south-central Plains into the Ozarks, and Severe Thunderstorm Watch 667 is in effect from 3:45 p.m. until 10:00 p.m. CDT for portions of southwest Kansas, Oklahoma, and the Texas Panhandle. Farther east, the Weather Prediction Center keeps a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic. Tropical Storm Norbert is over the open eastern Pacific and is not a U.S. land threat.

These are county- and ZIP-scale thunderstorms, not a mainland hurricane landfall. Restoration exposure this afternoon and evening is wind-driven roof and siding work, isolated large hail, trees on service drops, and interior water where cells train over already-wet ground in the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What is live this afternoon

Watch 667 covers southwest Kansas, Oklahoma, and the Texas Panhandle through 10:00 p.m. CDT. Primary threat language from SPC: scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80 mph, plus isolated very large hail to 2 inches. Tornado probability in the watch is low. The 2000 UTC Day 1 outlook, issued 3:00 p.m. CDT Saturday, expanded the Slight Risk southwest across parts of western Oklahoma after satellite showed agitated cumulus and isolated initiation along a remnant outflow. Temperatures of 102–104°F south of the wind shift support severe-caliber downdrafts if clusters organize.

Mesoscale Discussion 2286, issued 2:52 p.m. CDT, flagged southern Kansas into northwest Oklahoma as watch-likely before the watch went up. Most probable peak gusts in that discussion were 65–80 mph; most probable peak hail 1.50–2.50 inches. MD 2287 followed on a severe-potential, watch-possible track as storms tried to fill in.

WPC’s Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, valid 12 UTC Saturday through 12 UTC Sunday, keeps a Slight Risk over the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic. That language is flood first, wind second: 2.0–2.25 inch precipitable water along I-95 from Richmond toward Philadelphia, with a higher-end Slight pocket in the upper Ohio Valley where flash-flood guidance is under 2 inches in northern West Virginia and western Pennsylvania. Central Plains stay Marginal for excessive rain. Florida remains in a localized urban-flood environment on 2.0–2.25 inch precipitable water.

The official SPC Local Storm Report list for the 12 UTC Saturday through 12 UTC Sunday window was still empty as of mid-afternoon, which is expected this early in the convective day. SPC’s same-day report-trend plot on the homepage was already counting preliminary tornado, wind, and hail ticks as storms started to fire. Treat those as unofficial until they land on the LSR page.

Hotspot 1 — Southwest Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas Panhandle

This is the live watch. Storms are expected to increase and intensify near an outflow boundary across Oklahoma and near a front across Kansas and the eastern Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. SPC notes a narrow corridor of 2,000–3,500 J/kg MLCAPE, 30–40 kt of deep-layer shear, and steep mid-level lapse rates that support isolated 2-inch hail before storms cluster. Higher-based convection in the hot mixed layer favors wind over tornadoes.

Cities and counties to watch: Wichita, Hutchinson, and Emporia in Kansas; Enid, Ponca City, and the Oklahoma City metro fringe; Alva to Chandler along the watch axis; Amarillo and the eastern Texas Panhandle. Neighboring offices: Dodge City, Wichita, Norman, Tulsa, Amarillo.

Restoration read: wind and hail first. Stage tarps, generators, and glass/roof crews before dark. A 75–80 mph gust on a well-mixed 104°F afternoon is a tree-and-roof ticket, not a regional catastrophe. Photograph roofs in remaining daylight only if it is safe.

Hotspot 2 — Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic flood pulse

This is the water desk, not the watch desk. WPC holds a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall from the upper Ohio Valley through the Mid-Atlantic. HREF signals in the morning discussion showed moderate-to-high chances of 3-hour and 6-hour flash-flood guidance exceedance in the upper Ohio Valley, and 20–40 percent chances of 3-hour totals over 2 inches from the Richmond area late Saturday into the Delaware Valley and southern New Jersey Saturday night. The Slight Risk was extended north through eastern Pennsylvania, northern New Jersey, and into the New York City metro and lower Long Island for late Saturday night into Sunday.

SPC keeps a Marginal Risk of isolated damaging wind with loosely organized clusters in the upper Ohio Valley this afternoon. That is secondary to the flood overlay.

Cities and counties to watch: Pittsburgh and western Pennsylvania; northern West Virginia; Columbus–Dayton corridor on the wind-marginal fringe; Richmond, Baltimore, Philadelphia, and the I-95 urban core Saturday night.

Restoration read: extraction and drying if cells train. Urban streets, underpasses, and small streams fail first. Do not treat this as the same story as Watch 667. Different hazard, different crew mix.

Hotspot 3 — North Georgia leftover water and Plains scatter

National Weather Service Peachtree City issued multiple Flash Flood Warnings this morning for Cobb, DeKalb, Douglas, Fulton, Carroll, and Paulding counties, including Atlanta, Marietta, Sandy Springs, Douglasville, and Villa Rica. Radar-indicated totals of 1–4 inches were already on the ground in those products, with additional 1–3 inches possible in the warned windows. Some of those warnings expired by mid-afternoon; the water is still in the street and in the buildings. That is already a ticket, not a new watch.

Elsewhere, isolated strong-to-severe cells remain possible on the edges of the Slight Risk into the Ozarks and on the hot High Plains. Florida stays a local urban-flood and lightning desk on deep tropical moisture. A Flash Flood Watch remains up over the Paradise and Hagen burn scar in northeast Oregon and southeast Washington from Saturday afternoon through Sunday evening — debris-flow country, not a CAT event.

Just hit

Friday’s official LSR window (12 UTC September 11 through 12 UTC September 12) is the last closed book. Preliminary reports included a tornado touchdown 7 miles northeast of Artichoke, Minnesota, plus golf-ball hail near Artichoke and Alberta in Stevens County, Minnesota. Wind and hail also hit Tarrant County, Texas (Arlington–Mansfield trees, poles, and up to 1.75-inch hail), Bexar County, Texas (golf-ball hail near Converse and Kirby), and a long tree-down swath through South Carolina, Virginia, and North Carolina. Those are already claims. Today’s new work, if it verifies after 12 UTC Saturday, is Watch 667 wind and hail plus Ohio Valley–Mid-Atlantic water.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS level	Status this afternoon
SW Kansas / Oklahoma / TX Panhandle	Damaging wind to 80 mph, isolated 2-inch hail	Slight + Watch 667 to 10 p.m. CDT	Live watch
Ohio Valley / Mid-Atlantic	Flash flood, training heavy rain, isolated wind	WPC Slight excessive rainfall; SPC Marginal wind	Tonight into Sunday morning
North Georgia metro	Urban flash flood leftover from morning warnings	FFW earlier today	Aftermath / still in street
Ozarks / central Plains fringe	Isolated hail and wind	SPC Marginal	Scattered
NE Oregon / SE Washington burn scar	Flash flood / debris flow	Flash Flood Watch through Sunday evening	Local hydrologic
Atlantic / Gulf vs. U.S. mainland	No landfalling tropical cyclone	Quiet on the mainland coast	Quiet (Norbert open EPAC)

What this means for restoration teams

Wind at 65–80 mph is roof, siding, gutter, and tree-on-structure work. Isolated 2-inch hail is broken glass and pitted panels in a narrow swath, not a statewide event. Heavy rain on the Ohio Valley–Mid-Atlantic Slight Risk is wet drywall and a 24–48 hour mold clock. Atlanta-metro water from this morning is already inside some buildings.

For teams in or near Watch 667: stage before 5 p.m. CDT, not after the first warning. Property owners should photograph damage in daylight if it is safe, call the carrier, and start extraction the same night if water is inside. Do not send the same crew to Oklahoma wind and Pittsburgh water without checking which county actually has a warning now.

What this is not

This is not a regional derecho and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. Tropical Storm Norbert is expected to dissipate east-southeast of Hawaii by midweek and is not a CONUS or Hawaii landfall problem on this desk. The work tonight, if it comes, will be scattered: a wind or hail swath through a Kansas or Oklahoma county, a flooded intersection where Ohio Valley or Mid-Atlantic cells train, leftover urban water in metro Atlanta. That is the local-storm pattern this desk should staff.

Looking ahead

Sunday, SPC Day 2 is a Marginal Risk of strong storms with small to marginally severe hail and locally damaging wind from the Ohio Valley to the Northeast. Coverage is uncertain. Monday, Day 3 adds a small Slight Risk across eastern Nebraska into western Iowa. Watch the next Storm Tracker update rather than assuming Watch 667 is the last line of the weekend.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources, all date-stamped Saturday, September 12, 2026: NOAA Storm Prediction Center 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook; Severe Thunderstorm Watch 667; Mesoscale Discussions 2286 and 2287; SPC today and September 11 Local Storm Reports; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook issued 3:39 a.m. EDT; National Weather Service warning text including Peachtree City flash-flood products; National Hurricane Center public advisory on Tropical Storm Norbert (open eastern Pacific, no U.S. land threat).

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watch, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay. Morning desk for this calendar day: Saturday morning Storm Updates. Related desk: Friday afternoon Storm Updates.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

September 12, 2026

Storm Updates: Upper Midwest Slight Risk, VA–NC Wind Scatter — Friday, September 11, 2026

This is a live Friday afternoon snapshot of local storm-type events across the United States as of Friday, September 11, 2026. The organized pulse is still ahead of most radar cores: the Storm Prediction Center 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook keeps a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms across the Upper Midwest for late this afternoon and tonight. No convective watches are currently valid. Mesoscale Discussion 2281, issued 1937 UTC, flags a lower-end damaging-wind threat over parts of southern Virginia and northern North Carolina with watch issuance unlikely. The Weather Prediction Center holds a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall in far southern Arizona and northern Minnesota.

These remain county- and ZIP-scale thunderstorms, not a mainland hurricane landfall. Tropical Storm Norbert is in the Eastern Pacific well west-southwest of Baja California and poses no threat to U.S. land. Restoration exposure this afternoon is wind, water, hail, and trees: large hail and damaging wind in the Minnesota–northeast South Dakota Slight Risk, isolated wind in the Virginia–North Carolina scatter, flash-flood rates in northern Minnesota and Santa Cruz County, Arizona, plus residual hail and pole work from last night’s Texas Panhandle event. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What is live this afternoon

No severe thunderstorm or tornado watches are in effect as of the SPC watch page update Friday afternoon. The most recently issued watch remains Watch 665 from earlier in the week. Today’s official Local Storm Reports page (1200 UTC Friday through 1159 UTC Saturday) still shows no new tornado, hail, or wind reports in that window. Last night’s reports sit on the September 10 LSR page.

SPC’s 2000 UTC Day 1 outlook (forecaster Wendt, issued 0300 PM CDT) is mostly on track from the morning package. Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of large hail (some 2+ inches), damaging winds, and a couple of tornadoes are expected late this afternoon and tonight across parts of the Upper Midwest. Initiation farther south into the central Plains remains more uncertain and conditional. Marginal wind/hail probabilities were extended into more of central Kansas for overnight conditional storms as the cold front reaches northern Kansas Saturday morning.

WPC’s Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 1601 UTC, valid 16Z Friday–12Z Saturday) keeps Slight Risk language over far southern Arizona and northern Minnesota. The 16Z update expanded a Marginal Risk eastward across more of the Florida Panhandle for 1–2+ inch local rates. Mid-South, Tennessee Valley, central Gulf Coast, and Southern Appalachians stay in the more widespread thunderstorm/flash-flood conversation at Marginal intensity.

Hotspot 1 — Upper Midwest Slight Risk (northeast SD into western and northern MN)

This is still the primary organized severe corridor. A mid-level shortwave and cold front support a narrow corridor of 60s F dewpoints, moderate destabilization, and 35–45 kt of deep-layer shear. Initial supercells favor large hail, isolated 2+ inches possible. Mode should trend toward clusters and bowing segments this evening as the low-level jet strengthens, shifting the main hazard toward damaging wind. A couple of tornadoes remain in the official language if any cells stay semi-discrete into early evening. The wind threat is expected to wane with eastward extent into western Wisconsin late tonight as the instability corridor stays narrow.

Cities and counties to watch: Watertown and Aberdeen vicinity in South Dakota; Willmar, St. Cloud, Fergus Falls, Brainerd, Hibbing, Duluth, and the Minnesota Arrowhead. Restoration read: hail first, then wind and trees after dark. Stage roof tarps, generators, and tree crews on the Minnesota side of the Slight Risk before evening clustering. Photograph only in remaining daylight if it is safe.

Hotspot 2 — Southern Virginia and northern North Carolina (MD 2281)

Mesoscale Discussion 2281 (valid 1937–2200 UTC) covers parts of southern Virginia and northern North Carolina. A stationary boundary from far northeastern North Carolina into south-central Virginia is the focus. Moderate surface-based buoyancy and steepening low-level lapse rates support loosely organized clusters capable of locally damaging gusts of 55–70 mph and isolated/marginally severe hail up to about 1.25 inches. Watch probability is 20 percent — watch unlikely.

Offices in the attention line: AKQ, MHX, LWX, RAH, RNK. Restoration read: treat this as scattered wind and tree work, not a regional line. One strong cluster can still drop a tree on a service drop or peel a section of roof. Do not staff it like Watch 665 from Wednesday.

Hotspot 3 — WPC flood pockets: northern Minnesota and far southern Arizona

The same shortwave that supports the Upper Midwest Slight Risk also carries a WPC Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over northern Minnesota. Official discussion cites precipitable water in the upper climatological percentile, possible training near the warm front, 1–2 inches (locally up to 3 inches), and rates approaching 1.5 inches per hour Friday afternoon and evening.

Far southern Arizona, especially the Santa Cruz County corridor, remains the other Slight Risk flood pocket on monsoon moisture with precipitable water above 1.5 inches. HREF guidance earlier today showed moderate-to-high chances of 3-hour QPF exceeding flash-flood guidance there. The Florida Panhandle was added to the broader Marginal flood language on the 16Z update for coastal 1–2+ inch rates.

Restoration read: northern Minnesota can be a dual ticket — hail/wind plus interior water if cores train. Southern Arizona is a flash-flood and poor-drainage desk. Florida Panhandle is localized urban flooding, not the national headline.

Just hit

Thursday evening into early Friday remains the live claim pile. Official September 10 LSRs include 2.25-inch hail near Lake Tanglewood and 2.00-inch hail at Timbercreek Canyon in Randall County, Texas; 1.75-inch and 1.25-inch stones around Lake Tanglewood and Pantex; an 87 mph thunderstorm gust 1 SE of Colby, Thomas County, Kansas; 67 mph near Pantex; 65 mph at Plainview, Hale County, Texas, with snapped power poles, an overturned construction trailer, damaged vehicles, and fences down; plus additional 60–62 mph gusts on the Texas South Plains. Residual high-water work from overnight Flash Flood Warnings in north-central West Virginia and southeastern Ohio is still on yesterday morning’s books.

No Atlantic tropical cyclone is present. NHC’s 200 PM EDT Friday Tropical Weather Outlook states tropical cyclone formation is not expected in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf of America during the next 7 days. Tropical Storm Norbert, 65 mph as of the late-morning Eastern Pacific package, is moving west well offshore and is not a U.S. land threat.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS / WPC level	Status this afternoon
NE SD / western & northern MN	Large hail (2+” possible), damaging wind, couple tornadoes	SPC Slight	Late afternoon–tonight
Southern VA / northern NC	Locally damaging gusts 55–70 mph, isolated hail	MD 2281, watch unlikely	Remainder of afternoon
Northern MN / far southern AZ	Flash-flood rates, training possible in MN	WPC Slight	Afternoon–evening
TX Panhandle / Colby KS	Hail to 2.25″, 60–87 mph gusts, poles/vehicles	Sept 10 LSRs	Just-hit / recovery
Central Plains / central KS overnight	Conditional hail/wind	SPC Marginal (expanded 20Z)	Evening–overnight if storms fire
Mid-South / TN Valley / Carolinas	Pulse damaging gusts, heavy rain	SPC Marginal	Scattered
Atlantic / Gulf vs. U.S. mainland	No landfalling tropical cyclone	NHC: no TC next 7 days	Quiet

What this means for restoration teams

The Texas Panhandle and Colby, Kansas, hits are already tickets: hail roofs and vehicles in Randall and Carson counties, wind-driven pole and debris work around Plainview and Colby. Today’s new work, if it verifies, is the Upper Midwest Slight Risk after peak heating — hail swaths first, then tree-and-wire clusters. Northern Minnesota can add interior water on the same shift. Virginia–North Carolina is a local wind desk, not a watch-scale deployment.

Stage Minnesota tarps and tree crews before dark. Property owners should photograph damage in daylight if it is safe, call the carrier, and start extraction the same night if water is inside. Do not send the same crew to both the Minnesota Slight Risk and last night’s Texas recovery without checking which county actually has a warning now.

What this is not

This is not a regional derecho and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. There is no live tornado or severe thunderstorm watch as of this afternoon package. The work tonight, if it comes, will be scattered: a hail swath through a Minnesota or South Dakota county, a wind-downed tree in southern Virginia, a flooded wash in Santa Cruz County, Arizona, or leftover pole work in Hale County, Texas. That is the local-storm pattern this desk should staff.

Looking ahead

Saturday’s Day 2 Convective Outlook (1730 UTC, forecaster Jewell) drops to Marginal over parts of the Central Plains and from Ohio and West Virginia into western Pennsylvania. Widely scattered strong-to-severe storms are possible Saturday afternoon and evening over parts of the Central Plains, with isolated activity also possible in the Upper Ohio Valley. Critical fire-weather conditions remain in today’s fire outlook. Watch the next Storm Tracker update rather than assuming the Upper Midwest Slight Risk is the last line of the week.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Convective Outlook issued 2000 UTC Friday, September 11, 2026; SPC Mesoscale Discussion 2281 issued 1937 UTC; SPC current watches page (no watches valid); SPC Local Storm Reports for 11 September (none in the new 12Z window as of this writing) and 10 September (Texas Panhandle and Colby, Kansas); Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook updated 1601 UTC; National Hurricane Center Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook 200 PM EDT Friday; Eastern Pacific package on Tropical Storm Norbert. Morning desk on the same calendar day: Friday morning Storm Updates.

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watches, MDs, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay. NWS warning text feed: national WWA text.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

September 11, 2026

Storm Updates: Southern Plains to Mid-Atlantic Marginal Risk, Ohio Valley Flood Pulse — Thursday, September 10, 2026

This is a live Thursday afternoon snapshot of local storm-type events across the United States as of the afternoon of Thursday, September 10, 2026. The organized severe corridor has broadened and weakened relative to Wednesday’s Slight Risk and Watch 665. The Storm Prediction Center holds a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms from the southern High Plains to the southern Mid-Atlantic coast, valid through early Friday morning. The Weather Prediction Center maintains a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over the upper Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians, with Marginal flood risk farther west and southwest.

These remain county- and ZIP-scale thunderstorms, not a mainland hurricane landfall. Restoration exposure this afternoon and evening is primarily sporadic damaging wind (roof, siding, trees on service drops), isolated large hail on the High Plains, and flash-flood water where cells train over the Ohio Valley–Appalachians corridor. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What is live this afternoon

No convective watches are currently valid. The most recent watch (Severe Thunderstorm Watch 665) expired overnight. SPC’s 2000 UTC Day 1 outlook (issued 2:40 p.m. CDT) highlights sporadic damaging wind gusts from the southern Plains to the southern Mid-Atlantic this afternoon and evening, plus isolated large hail over south-central Colorado into northeast New Mexico and possibly the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles. Mesoscale Discussion 2279 (issued ~2:15 p.m. CDT) covers northeast Arkansas into parts of Tennessee and Kentucky: widely scattered storms capable of locally damaging winds, watch unlikely.

WPC’s Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 1554 UTC) keeps a Slight Risk over the upper Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians—eastern Kentucky and West Virginia remain the core area of highest QPF and training potential. Marginal Risk areas cover parts of the Mid-Atlantic, south-central Plains/Mid-Mississippi Valley, and the Southwest (Arizona–New Mexico into southern California higher terrain).

Hotspot 1 — Northeast Arkansas into Kentucky and Tennessee

MD 2279 flags the live severe potential. Storms developing along and south of a surface boundary in a hot, humid air mass (upper 80s to mid-90s, PWAT near 2 inches, MLCAPE over 1,500 J/kg). Mid-level flow of 25–30 kt may support a few organized multicell clusters. Primary hazard is locally damaging wind gusts (most probable peak 55–70 mph). Coverage of severe is expected to stay limited; no watch is anticipated.

Cities and counties to watch: Jonesboro and northeast Arkansas counties; western and central Kentucky (including areas near the Ohio River); western and middle Tennessee.

Restoration read: Wind first—stage tarps, generators, and tree crews for late afternoon into evening. If a cell trains or produces heavy rain on the WPC slight-risk overlay, treat the same ZIP as a water job by morning.

Hotspot 2 — Upper Ohio Valley and central Appalachians (flood)

WPC Slight Risk of excessive rainfall centers on eastern Kentucky and West Virginia, with a minor eastward expansion into east-central West Virginia on the latest update. Anomalous precipitable water (near 99th percentile), MUCAPE >1,000 J/kg, and potential for training along a front parallel to the mid-level flow support 2–3 inch per hour rates. Soils have been drier of late, but 1-hour flash-flood guidance around 2 inches still leaves room for scattered flash flooding on urban streets, small streams, and low-lying areas.

Some storms are expected to spill east across northern Virginia, northern Maryland, and the Mid-Atlantic I-95 corridor this evening—progressive but still moisture-laden.

Restoration read: Water is the ticket tonight if cells train. Extraction and drying clocks start the same night water enters a structure. Photograph damage in remaining daylight only if safe.

Hotspot 3 — Southern High Plains and residual Kansas–Missouri wind damage

Isolated large hail remains possible over the Raton Mesa vicinity (south-central Colorado into northeast New Mexico) and portions of the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles under the Marginal Risk. Farther east, residual tree and wire damage from Wednesday evening’s line across parts of Kansas, Missouri, Ohio, and Pennsylvania is already on the books. Local Storm Reports from the overnight period include multiple 60–70+ mph gusts and tree/wire damage across southeast Kansas into west-central Missouri and scattered Ohio counties.

Restoration read: High Plains is today’s new hail/wind cells; Kansas–Missouri–Ohio is yesterday’s wind swath still generating claims. Do not send the same crew to both stories without checking which county actually has active warnings now.

Just hit

Wednesday’s Severe Thunderstorm Watch 665 (northern Ohio, northwest Pennsylvania, western New York) produced multiple wind reports—trees and utility lines down across Erie, Stark, Coshocton, and neighboring counties, plus scattered Kansas and Missouri damage. Those are already tickets. Today’s new work, if it verifies, is the AR–KY–TN wind corridor plus localized flash flooding under the WPC Slight Risk.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS level	Status this afternoon
NE AR / KY / TN	Damaging wind, lightning	Marginal + MD 2279	Live cells, watch unlikely
Upper OH Valley / central Appalachians	Flash flood, training heavy rain	WPC Slight excessive rainfall	Tonight into Friday morning
Southern High Plains / Raton Mesa	Isolated large hail, gusty wind	Marginal	Afternoon–evening cells
KS / MO / OH residual	Tree/wire damage from Wednesday	Aftermath	Claims already open
Mid-Atlantic spillover	Heavy rain, localized flood	WPC Marginal	Evening progressive storms
Atlantic / Gulf vs. U.S. mainland	No landfalling hurricane	Quiet on the mainland coast	Quiet

What this means for restoration teams

Marginal-risk wind is still roof, siding, gutter, and tree-on-structure work when a cell organizes. Hail on the High Plains is vehicle and roof dents. The Ohio Valley–Appalachians flood risk is wet drywall and a 24–48 hour mold clock if water enters. Residual Wednesday damage is already generating calls across the Ohio–Pennsylvania corridor and the Kansas–Missouri line.

For teams near the MD 2279 area or the WPC Slight Risk: stage before the densest afternoon heating, not after the first warning. Property owners should photograph damage in daylight if safe, call the carrier, and start extraction the same night if water is inside.

What this is not

This is not a regional derecho and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. The work this afternoon and evening, if it comes, will be scattered: a wind swath through an Arkansas or Kentucky county, a flooded intersection where eastern Kentucky or West Virginia cells train, leftover tree damage from Wednesday’s Ohio–PA activity. That is the local-storm pattern this desk should staff.

Looking ahead

Friday (Day 2) the SPC has a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms from central Nebraska into the Upper Midwest late afternoon into Friday night—damaging wind, large hail, and a couple of tornadoes possible as an upper shortwave and surface front organize. Later in the period a Marginal Risk appears on Day 3. Watch the next Storm Tracker update rather than assuming today’s Marginal is the last line of the week.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Convective Outlook (2000 UTC, September 10, 2026) and Mesoscale Discussion 2279; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 1554 UTC); SPC Local Storm Reports for the overnight and early-day period; National Weather Service warning text. Related desk: Thursday morning Storm Updates and Wednesday afternoon Storm Updates.

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watches, MDs, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

September 10, 2026

Storm Updates: Ohio–Pennsylvania–Western New York Slight Risk, Kansas–Missouri Flood Pulse — Wednesday, September 9, 2026

This is a live Wednesday snapshot of local storm-type events across the United States as of the afternoon of Wednesday, September 9, 2026. The organized pulse is east of yesterday’s Iowa–Nebraska corridor. A Storm Prediction Center Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms covers central Ohio into northwest Pennsylvania and western New York, and Severe Thunderstorm Watch 665 is in effect until 11:00 p.m. EDT. Farther west, the Weather Prediction Center holds a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall from southeast Kansas into south-central Missouri, with smaller flood-risk pockets in southeast Colorado and the Arizona–New Mexico border country.

These are county- and ZIP-scale thunderstorms, not a mainland hurricane landfall. Restoration exposure tonight is wind-driven roof and siding work, trees on service drops, isolated hail, and interior water where cells train. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What is live this afternoon

Watch 665 covers western New York, northern Ohio, northwest Pennsylvania, the northern panhandle of West Virginia, and adjacent Lake Erie waters. Primary threat language is scattered damaging wind gusts to about 65 mph. SPC and NWS discussion also leaves room for a brief tornado, especially if a storm anchors on the surface boundary near the Ohio–Pennsylvania–New York border. Hail is secondary.

A cold front still stretches on the order of a thousand miles from the Central Plains through the Great Lakes toward western New York. That is the same family of storms that wet Iowa and eastern Nebraska on Tuesday. Today the better-organized severe corridor is the eastern Great Lakes. Isolated strong-to-severe cells remain possible from the central Plains into the Ohio Valley, with a more disorganized, outflow-dominant mode west of the watch.

Hotspot 1 — Northern Ohio, northwest Pennsylvania, western New York

This is the live watch. Storms are expected to increase through late afternoon and evening in a warm, humid boundary layer with enough shear for organized multicells, short line segments, and transient supercells. Mesoscale discussion language from mid-afternoon: a few damaging gusts over the next few hours, brief tornado not ruled out.

Cities and counties to watch: Cleveland, Akron, Canton, Parma, Mansfield, Lorain and Medina counties in Ohio; Erie, Crawford, Warren, Mercer, and neighboring northwest Pennsylvania counties; Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, and Allegany in western New York; the northern West Virginia panhandle.

Restoration read: wind first. Stage tarps, generators, and tree crews before dark. If a cell trains or a warning includes heavy rain, treat the same ZIP as a water job by morning. Photograph roofs in remaining daylight only if it is safe.

Hotspot 2 — Southeast Kansas into south-central Missouri, plus leftover Iowa water

WPC’s Day 1 excessive-rainfall outlook keeps a Slight Risk from southeast Kansas into south-central Missouri. Guidance still supports training west-to-east overnight and 1-inch-per-hour rates in the better cores. Urban streets, low water crossings, and small streams are the first failures. A smaller slight-risk pocket sits over southeast Colorado early Thursday. Southeast Arizona into far southwest New Mexico stays in the same excessive-rainfall slight-risk language on monsoon-style cells.

Iowa is not the new Slight Risk today, but it is still a just-hit desk. Flood warnings remain on pieces of the Des Moines system, including the Raccoon River at Des Moines and Walnut Creek. Tuesday’s rain is still in the channel. That is extraction and drying work already on the books, not a new watch.

Restoration read: Kansas–Missouri is tonight’s flood ticket if cells stall. Iowa is yesterday’s water still moving through town. Do not send the same crew to both stories without checking which county actually has a warning now.

Hotspot 3 — Central Plains and Southwest scatter

Widely scattered slow-moving storms over hot, humid air in parts of Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas can still throw damaging gusts even when they stay below watch criteria. Local Severe Thunderstorm Warnings and Special Weather Statements have already fired in the Texas Panhandle and other High Plains counties this afternoon. Southern Arizona and New Mexico higher terrain can produce heavy rain and strong outflow on the same moisture axis as the WPC slight risk.

Southwest Florida holds a marginal heavy-rain pocket in tropical moisture. That is a local urban-flood and lightning desk, not the national headline.

Just hit

Tuesday’s Iowa–Nebraska Slight Risk and the Kauai flood-and-outage work after Hurricane Lowell are yesterday’s tickets. Lowell continues to move away from the islands; there is no new U.S. mainland tropical landfall in the current National Hurricane Center outlook. Today’s new work, if it verifies, is the Ohio–Erie–western New York wind corridor plus localized flash flooding in the Kansas–Missouri slight-risk area.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS level	Status this afternoon
Northern OH / NW PA / western NY	Damaging wind, lightning, brief tornado possible	Slight + Watch 665 to 11 p.m. EDT	Live watch
SE Kansas / south-central Missouri	Flash flood, training heavy rain	WPC Slight excessive rainfall	Tonight into Thursday morning
Des Moines / central Iowa rivers	Minor river flooding from Tuesday rain	Flood warnings	Aftermath / still in channel
TX / OK / KS scatter + High Plains	Gusty damaging wind, isolated warnings	Local SVR / SPS	Scattered
SE AZ / SW NM / SE Colorado	Heavy rain, strong outflow	WPC Slight (local)	Afternoon–overnight cells
Atlantic / Gulf vs. U.S. mainland	No landfalling hurricane	Quiet on the mainland coast	Quiet

What this means for restoration teams

Wind at 58–65 mph is roof, siding, gutter, and tree-on-structure work. A brief tornado, if one occurs, is a narrow swath — staff it as a local damage survey, not a regional event. Heavy rain on the Kansas–Missouri slight risk is wet drywall and a 24–48 hour mold clock. Iowa water is already inside some buildings from Tuesday.

For teams in or near Watch 665: stage before 5 p.m. local, not after the first warning. Property owners should photograph damage in daylight if it is safe, call the carrier, and start extraction the same night if water is inside.

What this is not

This is not a regional derecho and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. The work tonight, if it comes, will be scattered: a wind swath through an Ohio or Pennsylvania county, a flooded intersection where Kansas or Missouri cells train, leftover river water in Des Moines. That is the local-storm pattern this desk should staff.

Looking ahead

Thursday the front slides toward the Mid-Atlantic, central Appalachians, and Ohio Valley with more wet weather and a continued flood watch in some of the same counties that take storms tonight. Later in the week, SPC language still flags another slight-risk window over parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley. Watch the next Storm Tracker update rather than assuming Watch 665 is the last line of the week.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Convective Outlook and Severe Thunderstorm Watch 665 for Wednesday, September 9, 2026; SPC Mesoscale Discussion covering northern Ohio into northwest Pennsylvania and far western New York; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook; National Weather Service warning and flood-statement text for Cleveland, State College, Buffalo, Des Moines, Amarillo, and neighboring offices.

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watch, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay. Related desk: Tuesday, September 8 storm updates.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

September 9, 2026

Storm Updates: Iowa–Nebraska Slight Risk, Kauai Flood Aftermath, Heat-Plus-Wind Cells — Tuesday, September 8, 2026

This is a live Tuesday snapshot of local storm-type events across the United States as of the afternoon of Tuesday, September 8, 2026. The mainland pulse is convective: a Storm Prediction Center Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms from southeast Nebraska across parts of Iowa, mainly damaging wind, plus scattered high-based wind cells on the High Plains. The tropical story is not a U.S. Gulf or Atlantic landfall. It is residual water and outage work on Kauai after Hurricane Lowell passed west of the islands.

These are the events that generate the restoration work crews actually see: wind-driven roof and siding failures, isolated hail, downed trees on service lines, interior flooding from stalling cells, and — in Hawaii — wind plus flash-flood cleanup after a close hurricane pass. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What is live this afternoon

The SPC Day 1 convective outlook holds a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening from southeast Nebraska across parts of Iowa, including the Omaha–Council Bluffs–Des Moines corridor toward Ames and Waterloo. The headline threat is severe wind gusts. Isolated large hail and a low-end tornado chance remain in the language. A broader Marginal Risk covers parts of the upper Midwest and central Plains. High-based storms over eastern Colorado into western and central Kansas can also produce gusty, occasionally damaging wind.

Heat is part of the same setup. Heat Advisories cover portions of southeastern Nebraska and southwestern Iowa, with heat-index values near or above 100–108°F. That matters for crew stamina and for how fast wet interiors go to mold if extraction waits overnight.

No widespread convective watches were in effect at this writing. Expect local Severe Thunderstorm Warnings and Special Weather Statements if cells organize along the front after mid-afternoon.

Hotspot 1 — Iowa and eastern Nebraska

A baroclinic zone from southern Nebraska into central Iowa is the focus. Differential heating sharpens it through the day. Storms are expected to initiate along or just north of that boundary late afternoon into evening, with enough shear for supercell and then bowing structures. Damaging wind is the primary restoration exposure. Weak mid-level lapse rates should limit the hail problem compared with a classic Plains supercell day, but quarter-size hail is still in local Hazardous Weather Outlooks.

NWS offices in the corridor are also flagging locally heavy rain and flash-flood potential tonight where storms train. That is interior water on the same streets that take the wind.

Cities and counties to watch: Omaha, Council Bluffs, Lincoln fringe, Des Moines, Ames, Waterloo, and counties along and south of I-80 in eastern Nebraska and western/central Iowa.

Restoration read: wind first — roofs, siding, trees, service drops — then water in the same ZIP if the line slows. Stage dehumidifiers and tarps before the front, not after the first LSR.

Hotspot 2 — Hawaii: Hurricane Lowell aftermath on Kauai and Niihau

Hurricane Lowell passed just west of Kauai and Niihau overnight into this morning. Coastal hurricane and tropical-storm warnings have been discontinued as the core moved north. Latest public advisories had the center well north-northwest of Lihue and weakening, with residual flash-flood risk still on the islands from additional heavy rain.

Impacts already on the ground: widespread power outages at the peak (on the order of 90 percent of Kauai customers in some tallies), damaging wind gusts near 80 mph on Kauai, high surf and coastal flooding, and mountain rainfall measured in the teens of inches in favored terrain. Hawaii issued a tornado watch for Kauai — the first of its kind for the state — during the closest approach.

Restoration read: this is wind-plus-water cleanup, not a new landfall tonight. Priorities are tarps, wet interiors, electrical safety on outage blocks, and roads still closed by flood or debris. Confirm current county emergency status before treating yesterday’s warning as today’s ticket.

Hotspot 3 — High Plains wind cells and scattered South-Central storms

Hot, deeply mixed boundary-layer air over eastern Colorado into western and central Kansas favors high-based storms with gusty to damaging wind this afternoon and evening. Coverage should stay scattered. That is still enough for isolated roof and tree jobs.

Farther south, Special Weather Statements and strong cells have been firing in parts of east Texas, Louisiana, and Mississippi with 40 mph-class gusts and lightning — below severe criteria in most cases, but enough for local tree-limb and urban-flood work where a cell sits.

Just hit — Monday into early Tuesday reports

Preliminary SPC and NWS storm reports from September 7 into early September 8 included brief tornadoes near Hammond, Louisiana; south of Strawberry Lake in McLean County, North Dakota; and east-northeast of Spencer, Nebraska. Hail and wind reports ran through the northern and central Plains. Those are yesterday’s tickets. Today’s new work, if it comes, is the Iowa–Nebraska corridor plus residual Kauai flood and outage jobs.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS level	Status this afternoon
SE Nebraska / central-eastern Iowa	Damaging wind, isolated hail, low-end tornado, heavy rain	Slight	Developing afternoon–evening
Eastern CO / western-central KS	High-based damaging wind	Marginal	Possible late day
Kauai / Niihau / Hawaiian Islands	Flash flood residual, outages, surf	Warnings dropped; flood risk remains	Aftermath
East TX / LA / MS cells	Gusty wind, lightning, local heavy rain	Local SPS / strong storms	Scattered
Atlantic / Gulf vs. U.S. mainland	No landfalling hurricane	Quiet on the mainland coast	Quiet

What this means for restoration teams

Wind at 58–70 mph is roof, siding, gutter, and tree-on-structure work. Isolated hail is vehicle lots, skylights, and soft metal. Heavy rain on the same front is wet drywall and a 24–48 hour mold clock. Kauai is already in the outage-and-water phase.

For teams in or near the Slight Risk: stage equipment before 5 p.m. local, not after the first warning. Property owners should photograph damage in daylight if it is safe, call the carrier, and get extraction started the same night if water is inside.

What this is not

This is not a regional derecho and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. Lowell is moving away from Hawaii. The work tonight, if it comes on the Plains, will be scattered: a wind swath through an Iowa or Nebraska county, a flooded intersection where cells train, a hail report or two. That is the local-storm pattern this desk should staff.

Looking ahead

Wednesday’s Day 2 outlook shifts the better-organized severe threat east toward eastern Ohio into western New York. Later in the week, another system may support severe chances again on the central Plains. Watch the next Storm Tracker update rather than assuming today’s Slight Risk stays parked on I-80.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Convective Outlook for Tuesday, September 8, 2026; SPC and NWS Local Storm Reports for September 7–8; National Weather Service Hazardous Weather Outlooks for Omaha, Des Moines, and neighboring offices; Central Pacific Hurricane Center / National Hurricane Center public advisories on Hurricane Lowell; and local NWS warning text.

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook and LSRs, and nhc.noaa.gov for Lowell. This desk will update when the evening reports close.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

September 8, 2026