Tag: severe thunderstorm warning

Storm Updates: Southwest Flood Moderate, Dakotas Marginal — Monday, September 28, 2026

Monday afternoon desk. Water still owns the Southwest. A small Marginal is now on the northern Plains. Not an NWS warning.

This is a live Monday afternoon snapshot of U.S. local-storm activity as of Monday, September 28, 2026. The morning desk opened with a blank severe map. The Storm Prediction Center 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook, issued 0258 PM CDT, now carries a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of western and northern South Dakota and vicinity. No convective watches are valid. The last issued watch remains number 0674.

The Weather Prediction Center still holds a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall over portions of the Southwest and Four Corners. The 16Z update expanded that Moderate southwest down the Colorado River to include the California–Arizona–Nevada tripoint. Restoration exposure this afternoon is water first on already wet Southwest ground, then isolated hail and gusty wind on the Dakotas Marginal, plus a short radar-indicated severe thunderstorm warning that fired over San Bernardino County, California. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What is live this afternoon

SPC summary language at 0258 PM CDT: isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur this afternoon and evening across parts of western and northern South Dakota and vicinity. The 20Z update notes stronger surface heating and less cloud cover near northwestern South Dakota, with temperatures into the low and mid 70s F downstream of developing convection near the Wyoming–South Dakota border. Storms were expected to form near the Black Hills around 20–22Z and spread east-northeast along a weak surface front. Stronger cells may produce isolated hail and gusty winds before becoming elevated across northern South Dakota and southern North Dakota later tonight.

Mesoscale Discussion 2330, issued 0240 PM CDT and valid through 2145 UTC, covers the western South Dakota vicinity. Concerning: severe potential, watch unlikely. Watch-issuance probability is 5 percent. SPC language: isolated strong to severe storms may produce sporadic hail through evening. Most probable peak hail size up to 1.25 inches. Most probable peak wind gust up to 60 mph. That is a local pulse, not a watch day.

WPC Day 1 excessive rainfall, updated 1537 UTC Monday and valid 16Z Monday through 12Z Tuesday, remains the national water headline. A Moderate Risk covers portions of the Southwest. The 16Z update expanded the Moderate to the CA/AZ/NV tripoint after coordination with NWS Las Vegas. Marginal and Slight areas were expanded north along the Nevada–Utah border. A separate Slight Risk remains over parts of North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota from training showers on the low-level jet. WPC notes much of the ongoing Arizona rain has been stratiform, but soils are already wet and the terrain is flashy.

National Hurricane Center as of the 2:00 PM MST Monday Polo advisory: Hurricane Polo is still a major hurricane near 25.0°N, 113.0°W, moving northeast at 12 mph, 115 mph maximum sustained winds, 963 mb. Life-threatening winds and flash flooding are beginning over portions of Baja California Sur. That is a Mexico land desk plus a U.S. flood-moisture feed. It is not a California or Arizona hurricane landfall. Hurricane Nolo remains a Central Pacific / Papahanaumokuakea desk. Tropical Storm Rachel is paralleling the southwest Mexico coast. Atlantic Tropical Depression Fay and Tropical Storm Hanna are not a CONUS land-threat desk this afternoon.

Hotspot 1 — Southwest and Four Corners flood Moderate

This is still today’s organized desk. Predecessor moisture from Polo and remnants of Odalys continues to lift north ahead of a mid-level shortwave moving from the California Valleys toward the lower Colorado River Valley. WPC guidance still supports a widespread 1 to 3 inches across the Four Corners region on soils already near saturation. South- and west-facing slopes along the Mogollon Rim and the San Juans remain favored. Burn scars, slot canyons, and rocky fans fail first.

Counties and terrain to watch this afternoon: Mogollon Rim and higher terrain in Arizona; western and southwestern New Mexico including burn-scar drainages near Lordsburg; the San Juan Mountains and adjacent southwest Colorado; southern Nevada valleys; and the newly expanded Moderate near the CA/AZ/NV tripoint and the lower Colorado River. WPC also flagged slow-moving lines along the Nevada–Utah border.

Restoration read: water first. Stage pumps, extractors, and sandbags on known flood ZIPs and burn-scar alluvial fans. Photograph crawlspaces and finished basements as soon as it is safe. Do not treat this as a wind event unless a local warning says otherwise.

Hotspot 2 — Western and northern South Dakota Marginal

This is the only categorical severe area on the current Day 1 map. SPC expects storms to form near the Black Hills and move east-northeast along a weak surface trough and front. MD 2330 keeps a watch off the table. Isolated quarter-to-golf-ball hail and 60 mph gusts are the staffed threats, not a derecho and not a tornado outbreak. Aberdeen and Rapid City county warning areas own the pulse. Northern South Dakota into southern North Dakota trends more elevated after dark.

Restoration read: isolated hail and tree work if a cell verifies. Do not pre-position a regional CAT team on a 5-percent watch probability.

Hotspot 3 — Lower Colorado / San Bernardino isolated SVR

SPC still withholds unconditional severe probabilities for southeast California, southern Nevada, and western Arizona, but NWS Las Vegas issued a Severe Thunderstorm Warning at 129 PM PDT Monday for San Bernardino County until 215 PM PDT. Radar-indicated hazards: 60 mph gusts and quarter-size hail near Amboy and Interstate 40 between mile markers 68 and 98, storm moving northeast at 20 mph. That warning is a short local pulse inside the WPC flood overlay, not an SPC watch.

Restoration read: check I-40 desert ZIPs and any hail-struck vehicles after the cell passes. The bigger ticket in that same corridor remains flash-flood water, not wind.

Just hit

SPC local storm reports for the current 1200 UTC Monday to 1159 UTC Tuesday window showed no tornado, hail, or wind reports as of this afternoon desk. That board resets at 12Z. Last night’s preliminary reports from the 27/1200–28/1159 UTC window remain the open tickets:

2216 UTC Sunday — 1.00-inch hail 20 miles south of Merriman, Cherry County, Nebraska. Vehicle damage reported. (NWS North Platte)
2330 UTC Sunday — 1.00-inch hail 2 miles north-northwest of Willow Park, Parker County, Texas. (NWS Fort Worth)
0032 UTC Monday — 1.00-inch hail 24 miles north of Whitman, Cherry County, Nebraska. (NWS North Platte)
1440 UTC Sunday — 66 mph gust 10 miles northwest of Okobojo Creek Recreation Area, Sully County, South Dakota. Mesonet. (NWS Aberdeen)
2300 UTC Sunday — 60 mph gust 22 miles west-southwest of Roosevelt, Sutton County, Texas. West Texas Mesonet Sonora 23SE. (NWS San Angelo)
2320 UTC Sunday — Unknown-speed wind 4 miles north-northwest of Willow Park, Parker County, Texas. Large tree limbs down on FM 730. (NWS Fort Worth)

No tornado reports were received in that window. Sunday evening Severe Thunderstorm Warnings over southwestern Cherry County, Nebraska, and northeastern Parker County, Texas, have expired. Today’s San Bernardino warning is a live local product, not yet an LSR.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS / WPC level	Status this afternoon
Southwest / Four Corners	Flash flood, training rain, burn-scar runoff	WPC Moderate excessive rainfall	Live through Tuesday 12Z; outline expanded to CA/AZ/NV tripoint
Western / northern South Dakota	Isolated hail, gusty wind	SPC Marginal; MD 2330 watch unlikely	This afternoon into evening
Eastern Dakotas / NW Minnesota	Training showers, localized flood	WPC Slight excessive rainfall	Ongoing
SE CA / southern NV / western AZ	Numerous storms, isolated wet downburst or SVR	General thunder; local SVR San Bernardino	Today into evening
Cherry County, NE / Parker County, TX	Quarter hail, tree limbs	Expired SVR / Sunday LSRs	Just-hit cleanup
Polo	Baja wind and flood; U.S. moisture feed	NHC major hurricane near Baja Sur	Not a CONUS landfall

What this means for restoration teams

The national severe map is no longer blank, but it is still a small Marginal. The work that actually fills trucks today is WPC Moderate water on the Southwest and Four Corners. Saturated soils plus burn-scar fans do not need a supercell. Stage extraction before the next training core, not after the first flash-flood warning.

South Dakota is isolated hail and outflow if the Black Hills cells organize. MD 2330 says watch unlikely. Staff it as a local pulse. Cherry County and Willow Park remain yesterday’s hail and limb tickets. Photograph vehicles and roofs in daylight if it is still safe.

Polo is a Baja and Sonora hurricane desk plus a U.S. flood-moisture feed. Do not staff it as a California or Arizona landfalling hurricane. Nolo is a Central Pacific desk.

What this is not

This is not a Slight or Enhanced severe day, not a derecho, and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. Work today, if it verifies, is flash flooding on the Four Corners Moderate, a narrow Dakotas Marginal, and one desert SVR in San Bernardino County. That is the local-storm pattern this desk should staff.

Looking ahead

SPC Day 2, issued 1215 PM CDT Monday and valid 12Z Tuesday through 12Z Wednesday, is a Marginal Risk from southern and eastern New Mexico into west Texas. Isolated severe gusts and a couple of tornadoes are possible Tuesday afternoon through early Wednesday as Polo remnants eject toward far west Texas and southeast New Mexico. Day 3 is already a Slight. WPC keeps Moderate flood language into Tuesday over parts of the Southwest, central and southern Rockies, and southern High Plains. Watch Tuesday morning Storm Tracker rather than assuming today’s small map is the week.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center Sep 28, 2026 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook; SPC Mesoscale Discussion 2330; SPC Current Watches page (no watches valid as of 1414 UTC Monday); SPC local storm reports for 28/1200 UTC–present and 27/1200–28/1159 UTC; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook updated 1537 UTC Mon Sep 28; National Hurricane Center Hurricane Polo Advisory 33 at 2:00 PM MST Mon Sep 28; NWS Las Vegas Severe Thunderstorm Warning for San Bernardino County issued 129 PM PDT; National Weather Service warning text compiled at weather.gov.

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watches, MDs, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay. Morning desk for this calendar day: Storm Updates: Southwest Flood Moderate, Quiet Severe Pulse — Monday, September 28, 2026 (Morning).

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

September 28, 2026

Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse, Northeast Flood Slight — Sunday, September 27, 2026

This is a live Sunday afternoon snapshot of U.S. local-storm activity as of Sunday, September 27, 2026. The organized severe desk is quiet. The Storm Prediction Center 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook states no severe thunderstorm areas are forecast and organized severe storms are not expected through early Monday. No convective watches are valid. Restoration exposure this afternoon is leftover nor’easter wind and water on the coastal Northeast, isolated gusty outflow from north Texas cells, and urban ponding where WPC keeps a Slight excessive-rainfall risk from New Jersey through southern New England.

These are county-scale thunderstorms and a fading coastal cyclone, not a mainland hurricane landfall. Conditions change. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What is live this afternoon

SPC issued the 2000 UTC (2:57 p.m. CDT) Day 1 outlook with the categorical line removed. The morning Marginal over western Nebraska and the Black Hills was taken off earlier; this cycle made no further change. Isolated convection was ongoing across portions of central and north Texas near 1945 UTC. SPC notes an isolated strong or damaging gust cannot be ruled out given steep low-level lapse rates and moderate buoyancy, but weak lower-tropospheric flow, limited effective shear, and poor mid-level lapse rates keep the severe probability under 5 percent.

A few additional thunderstorms remain possible late this afternoon and evening along a diffuse surface boundary from north Texas into southern Oklahoma. An occluded cyclone continues to weaken near the northern Mid-Atlantic coast, with elevated convection and isolated lightning possible to its northeast across southeast New England. Elevated storms over central South Dakota this morning were described as already past peak.

Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (valid 12 UTC Sunday through 12 UTC Monday) holds a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall for parts of the coastal Northeast — New Jersey, southern New York, and southern to central New England. Additional rainfall of 1 to 3 inches, locally heavier, is the language over the NYC metro into eastern Massachusetts. A Marginal Risk covers parts of Upstate New York and central New England, plus a separate Marginal from the Texas Hill Country into south-central Oklahoma. Isolated low-end flood potential is noted over portions of northern Arizona as moisture associated with Hurricane Polo begins to lift north of the Mexican coast.

High Wind Warnings that covered Eastern Monmouth and Coastal Ocean Counties in New Jersey and Long Island and adjacent Connecticut zones were in effect until noon EDT Sunday. Those products have expired. Tree-and-wire work from the overnight gusts is a just-hit desk, not a live warning desk.

Hotspot 1 — Coastal Northeast flood slight, wind fade

The live organized threat here is water, not a new severe watch. The slow-moving nor’easter lingering near northern New Jersey and eastern Long Island is still funneling moisture across southern New England. Instability is low, so instantaneous rates are not the main story. Saturated soils from coastal inundation and prior heavy rain keep urban streets, poor drainage, and small streams in play.

Cities and counties to watch: New York City and Long Island; Eastern Monmouth and Coastal Ocean Counties, New Jersey; New London and Middlesex Counties, Connecticut; eastern Massachusetts including the Boston metro. Restoration read: extraction and drying from last night’s wind-driven rain, plus ponding calls if the Slight Risk verifies. Photograph roofs in remaining daylight only if it is safe. Do not treat this as a new High Wind Warning — those expired at noon EDT.

Hotspot 2 — North Texas into southern Oklahoma scatter

This is the only convective corridor SPC is still talking about on the afternoon update. Isolated cells were already up over central and north Texas mid-afternoon. The same diffuse boundary can support a few more storms into southern Oklahoma this evening. Gusty outflow is the listed hazard. Hail and tornado probabilities are not highlighted.

Cities and counties to watch: the Dallas–Fort Worth periphery, Waco and Temple corridors, Wichita Falls, and counties along the Red River into southern Oklahoma. WPC’s Marginal excessive-rainfall pocket from the Texas Hill Country into south-central Oklahoma is the flood overlay on the same air mass. Restoration read: isolated wind and brief heavy rain. Staff local Severe Thunderstorm Warnings if they fire; do not staff a regional outbreak that SPC has already declined to draw.

Hotspot 3 — High Plains leftover and northern Arizona moisture

The morning Marginal for large hail over western Nebraska and the Black Hills is gone. SPC says the central South Dakota convection has already peaked and that any overnight elevated storms from western South Dakota into North Dakota carry only a low isolated-hail threat. NWS Aberdeen did issue a Severe Thunderstorm Warning this morning for parts of Stanley, Sully, and Dewey Counties, South Dakota — 60 mph gusts and quarter-size hail, radar indicated, until 10:00 a.m. CDT. That product is expired.

Northern Arizona is a low-end flood mention only, as flow turns southwest ahead of a trough digging into California and begins to draw moisture associated with Hurricane Polo. Polo itself is a Baja California Sur hurricane, not a U.S. mainland landfall. Restoration read: check whether any local flash-flood warning is actually live before rolling a crew. The outlook language is not a warning.

Just hit

SPC today’s storm-report page for the 1200 UTC Sunday through 1159 UTC Monday window showed no tornado, hail, or wind LSRs as of this afternoon scan. The morning desk already logged overnight Comanche County, Oklahoma wind and quarter hail from Saturday night. Mid-Atlantic High Wind Warnings that ran through noon EDT Sunday are the other just-hit pile: trees, service drops, and coastal water intrusion on the Jersey Shore, Long Island, and southern New England.

That is ticket work already on the books, not a new watch. Hurricane Nolo remains south of the Hawaiian Islands and is not a CONUS landfall. Hurricane Polo is a Mexico / Baja desk. Tropical Depression Fay is well west-southwest of the Azores. None of those systems is a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall this afternoon.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS level	Status this afternoon
Coastal Northeast (NJ / NYC / southern New England)	Urban flood, leftover wind damage	WPC Slight excessive rainfall; High Wind Warnings expired noon EDT	Live flood slight / wind fade
North Texas / southern Oklahoma	Isolated gusty outflow, brief heavy rain	SPC no severe area; WPC Marginal flood (Hill Country–south-central OK)	Scattered cells
Western NE / Black Hills / central SD	Isolated hail earlier; now quiet	Morning MRGL removed; SVR warning expired 10 a.m. CDT	Quiet
Northern Arizona	Isolated heavy rain	WPC low-end mention	Quiet / watch local products
CONUS Atlantic / Gulf coast	No landfalling hurricane	NHC systems offshore (Fay, Polo, Nolo)	Quiet on the mainland

What this means for restoration teams

Sunday afternoon is a close-out and water day, not a chase day. Northeast shops should finish tree-and-roof tickets from the expired High Wind Warnings and stay ready for urban water calls if the Slight Risk trains on already-wet ground. North Texas and southern Oklahoma shops watch local warnings only. High Plains shops can stand down the morning hail Marginal.

Wind that already happened is siding, gutter, and tree-on-structure work. New water on a Slight Risk is wet drywall and a 24–48 hour mold clock. Photograph in daylight if it is safe, call the carrier, and start extraction the same night if water is inside.

What this is not

This is not a regional derecho and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. SPC has no severe thunderstorm area and no watch. Polo is Baja. Nolo is south of Hawaii. Fay is mid-Atlantic open water. Do not invent a named-CAT desk on the CONUS from those tracks.

Looking ahead

SPC Day 2 (Monday) also has no severe thunderstorm areas forecast. Severe thunderstorm probability remains low. WPC discussion language for Monday raises a Moderate excessive-rainfall risk over parts of the Southwest, Great Basin, and central and southern Rockies as Polo moisture is drawn inland — that is tomorrow’s flood overlay, not today’s. Watch the next Storm Tracker update rather than assuming Sunday’s quiet line holds after 12 UTC Monday.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center Sep 27, 2026 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook (Chalmers/Guyer); SPC current watches page updated 1705 UTC Sunday (no watches valid); SPC today’s storm reports (20260927 1200–1159 UTC window); Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook updated 0812 UTC Sunday; NWS warning text including expired High Wind Warnings (Mount Holly and Upton) and the expired Aberdeen Severe Thunderstorm Warning; National Hurricane Center public products for Polo, Nolo, and Fay. Morning desk for this calendar day: Storm Updates: High Plains Hail Marginal, Nor’easter Wind Fade — Sunday, September 27, 2026 (Morning).

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watch, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

September 27, 2026

Storm Updates: Mid-Atlantic High Wind, Southern Plains Marginal — Saturday, September 26, 2026

This is a live Saturday afternoon snapshot of U.S. local-storm activity as of Saturday, September 26, 2026. The organized severe desk is a small Marginal over the southern Plains, not a national outbreak. The Storm Prediction Center 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook, issued 0250 PM CDT and valid 262000Z–271200Z, holds a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms late this afternoon and evening from western Oklahoma into northwest Texas. Summary language from Norman: isolated hail and strong outflow winds may accompany thunderstorms across portions of the southern Plains late this afternoon into the early evening. The outlined Marginal covers about 32,889 square miles and roughly 748,515 people, with larger centers including Wichita Falls, Lawton, Enid, Yukon, and Altus. No convective watches are valid. Restoration exposure this afternoon is split: tree and power-line wind on the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England High Wind Warnings, isolated hail and outflow gusts on the Oklahoma–northwest Texas Marginal, and water on the Weather Prediction Center Slight excessive-rainfall areas over Iowa and the coastal Northeast.

Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What is live this afternoon

No tornado or severe thunderstorm watches are current. The SPC watch page states no watches are valid. The last issued convective watch on the board is Watch 674, already expired. No mesoscale discussions are in effect. The 20Z Day 1 update kept the forecast generally on track and made only a slight southward expansion of the 5 percent wind probability. As of 1945 UTC, a deepening cumulus field was noted from West Texas into southwestern Oklahoma, with isolated thunderstorm development ongoing over the higher terrain of southwest Texas. Temperatures had warmed into the upper 80s to mid 90s F, with temperature-dewpoint spreads approaching 30 F in parts of northwest Texas. Steep low-level lapse rates may support isolated strong or damaging outflow gusts, with an instance of large hail also possible farther north where deep-layer shear is marginally stronger. A lack of stronger synoptic-scale forcing, generally modest mid-level flow, and poor mid-level lapse rates are expected to limit overall intensity and coverage.

The Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, updated 1556 UTC Saturday and valid 16Z Saturday through 12Z Sunday, holds a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall for parts of the coastal Northeast and Iowa. WPC notes a large nor’easter crawling off the Delaware and southern New Jersey coast, with a 986 mb center as of the 16Z discussion. Coastal and tidal flooding, aided by a full moon and the storm’s slow motion, are described as substantially more impactful than rainfall flooding. The Slight was expanded slightly to include urban northern New Jersey and urban central Connecticut. A higher-end Slight that had covered eastern Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and eastern Long Island was dropped with the 16Z update. All of the Northeast sits on the cold, northwest side of the storm, so instability for truly heavy convective rain is lacking. This remains a prolonged light-to-moderate rain event stacked on tides and high wind, not a warm-sector flash-flood outbreak.

Iowa’s Slight was left unchanged for central and southwestern Iowa. High-resolution guidance suggests showers and storms on the nose of a low-level jet this evening and tonight. Wet soils have lowered flash-flood guidance into the 1 to 1.5 inch per hour range. Instability is the limiter, struggling to exceed 500 J/kg. A Marginal Risk also remains over more sensitive parts of West Texas around the Davis Mountains and Stockton Plateau.

High Wind Warnings remain the live non-convective overlay on the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England coast. NWS Mount Holly continues a High Wind Warning until 6 AM EDT Sunday for the Delaware beaches and coastal New Jersey zones including Eastern Monmouth, Atlantic Coastal Cape May, Coastal Atlantic, and Coastal Ocean, with north winds 30 to 40 mph and gusts up to 60 mph. NWS Boston/Norton continues High Wind Warnings until 8 AM EDT Sunday for portions of eastern, northeastern, and southeastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island, with northeast winds 20 to 30 mph and gusts up to 50 to 60 mph depending on zone. Those products are trees and power lines, not SPC severe thunderstorm watches.

Hotspot 1 — Western Oklahoma into northwest Texas

This is the only categorical severe area on the Saturday Day 1 map. The 20Z outlook keeps isolated hail and strong outflow as the hazards late afternoon into early evening. Surface-based storms can still form where heating wins west of leftover morning cloud from southwest Oklahoma into Kansas. Cities inside the Marginal include Wichita Falls, Lawton, Enid, Yukon, and Altus. Isolated thunderstorms were already firing on the higher terrain of southwest Texas by mid-afternoon.

Restoration read: isolated wind and a possible hail stone, not a watch overlay. Staff lightning and a few downed limbs if a cell organizes near Lawton, Altus, or the Wichita Falls side of the Red River. Do not pre-position as if a Slight or Enhanced is coming. Photograph any hail or wind damage in daylight if it is safe.

Hotspot 2 — Jersey Shore, Delaware beaches, southern New England

The live work here is High Wind Warnings plus coastal and tidal flooding under a slow nor’easter, not an SPC convective watch. Mount Holly holds the warning through 6 AM Sunday on the Delaware beaches and the New Jersey coastal strip from Sandy Hook and Eastern Monmouth through Atlantic City, Long Beach Island, and Cape May. Boston/Norton holds through 8 AM Sunday from the North Shore and Boston through the South Coast, Cape Cod, the Islands, and Rhode Island. WPC’s Slight rainfall risk still covers parts of the coastal Northeast, including urban northern New Jersey and urban central Connecticut, but the 16Z discussion is explicit: coastal and tidal flooding matter more than the rain totals.

Restoration read: trees, wires, and wet basements on a long-duration coastal blow. Power outages are the expected ticket language in the NWS impact statements. Do not drive inundated coastal roads at high tide. This is not a hurricane landfall and not a derecho. Hurricane Nolo is a Hawaii desk. Hurricane Polo is a Baja California Sur forecast, not a U.S. East Coast landfall.

Hotspot 3 — Central and southwestern Iowa

WPC left the Slight Risk unchanged at 16Z for central and southwestern Iowa. Cell training along a northwest-southeast stationary front is still possible this evening and tonight on already wet soils. Earlier discussion language also kept eastern Nebraska and far northern Missouri in the broader rain corridor, with some 24-hour amounts able to reach or exceed 2 inches where storms train. Instability stays weak. Occasional mainly elevated thunderstorms remain possible from northeast Oklahoma northward to Iowa per the SPC Day 1 discussion, but that is not a categorical severe area.

Restoration read: water on poor drainage and low crossings tonight, not hail or a wind swath. Check Saturday night into Sunday morning for ponding. Turn around, don’t drown.

Just hit

SPC today’s storm reports for the 1200 UTC September 26 through 1159 UTC September 27 window show no tornado reports, no hail reports, and no wind reports as of this afternoon desk. The severe board is still empty for today’s convective day.

The work that is already a ticket is coastal wind and water on the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England side of the nor’easter, plus leftover runoff from the last several days on the southern High Plains. Those are NWS high-wind and flood products, not today’s SPC local storm reports. Do not reprint Friday’s New Mexico flash-flood warnings as Saturday LSRs.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS / WPC level	Status this afternoon
Western OK / northwest TX	Isolated hail, outflow wind	SPC 2000 UTC Marginal	Live late afternoon / evening
DE beaches / NJ coast / southern New England	High wind, trees, tidal flood	NWS High Wind Warnings; WPC Slight rain	Warnings into Sunday morning
Central / southwestern Iowa	Training rain, isolated runoff	WPC Slight	Evening / overnight
West Texas mountains	Localized heavy rain	WPC Marginal	Isolated
CONUS severe watches	None	No watches; last was 674	Quiet
SPC LSRs today	None	0 tornado / 0 hail / 0 wind	Quiet

What this means for restoration teams

Saturday afternoon is a split desk. The convective piece is a small Marginal from western Oklahoma into northwest Texas with no watch and an empty LSR board. Treat that as isolated cells, not a regional wind event. The live volume sits on the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England High Wind Warnings: trees, wires, and wet basements under a slow nor’easter. Iowa is an overnight water check on already wet ground.

Interior water still starts a 24–48 hour mold clock. Photograph in daylight if it is safe. Do not drive flooded coastal roads at high tide or low crossings in Iowa tonight. Hurricane Nolo remains a Hawaii flood-and-wind desk south of the Big Island. Hurricane Polo is forecast for Baja California Sur, not the U.S. mainland. Tropical Storm Gonzalo and Tropical Depression Fay are well out in the eastern and central Atlantic. Do not mix those crew maps with the Jersey Shore wind pile or the Oklahoma Marginal.

What this is not

This is not a regional derecho and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. SPC has one Marginal area and no Slight or higher. No convective watch is up. No mesoscale discussion is up. Today’s LSR board is empty. The nor’easter is a high-wind and coastal-flood event on the cold side of the low, not a tropical cyclone making landfall on the East Coast. That is the local-storm pattern this desk should staff.

Looking ahead

The SPC Day 2 Convective Outlook, issued 1247 AM CDT Saturday and valid 271200Z–281200Z Sunday, carries no severe thunderstorm areas. Summary: severe thunderstorms are not expected Sunday. An upper low is expected to meander over the lower Hudson Valley while ridging prevails over the Plains. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible from the Great Basin into the Plains, but overlapping buoyancy and shear look limited. Day 3 also has no severe thunderstorm areas. Sunday’s restoration check is leftover Mid-Atlantic wind damage and any Iowa runoff that verifies overnight, not a new severe outbreak.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook for Saturday, September 26, 2026 (issued 0250 PM CDT); SPC current watch page (no watches valid; last issued Watch 674); SPC mesoscale discussion page (none in effect); SPC storm reports for 1200 UTC September 26 through 1159 UTC September 27 (no tornado, hail, or wind reports at this desk); Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook discussion updated 1153 AM EDT Saturday; NWS Mount Holly High Wind Warning text; NWS Boston/Norton High Wind Warning text; SPC Day 2 Convective Outlook issued 1247 AM CDT Saturday; National Hurricane Center active-system summaries for Nolo, Polo, Gonzalo, and Fay.

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watch, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay. Morning desk: Saturday morning, September 26 storm updates.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

September 26, 2026

Storm Updates: Southeast New Mexico Flood Moderate, High Plains Marginal — Thursday, September 24, 2026

This is a live Thursday afternoon snapshot of U.S. local-storm activity as of Thursday, September 24, 2026. The organized desk is water, not a national wind outbreak. The Weather Prediction Center 16Z Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook upgrade holds a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall across parts of southeast New Mexico. The Storm Prediction Center 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook holds a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms across portions of the eastern Texas Panhandle, western Oklahoma, and western Kansas. No convective watches are in effect as of the 2107 UTC SPC watch page.

These are county-scale thunderstorms and flash-flood cells on saturated soils, not a mainland hurricane landfall. Restoration exposure this afternoon and tonight is interior water and mud where New Mexico cells train, plus isolated wind, hail, and tree work if a High Plains downburst verifies. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What is live this afternoon

SPC’s 1630 UTC Day 1 outlook, issued 1114 AM CDT Thursday, September 24, 2026, and valid 1630Z Thursday through 1200Z Friday, places a Marginal Risk over about 42,181 square miles and roughly 370,000 people. Named population centers inside the contour include Dodge City, Kansas; Altus, Oklahoma; Pampa, Texas; Woodward, Oklahoma; and Elk City, Oklahoma. The official summary: a couple of marginally severe thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon into the early evening across parts of the southern High Plains. A 2000 UTC outlook update discussed on secondary feeds left the contour unchanged and pointed to Mesoscale Discussion 2327; by 1801 UTC the SPC mesoscale page showed no discussions in effect, with 2326 the most recent archived number.

WPC’s Day 1 excessive-rainfall discussion issued 417 PM EDT Thursday, September 24, 2026, upgraded the existing Slight Risk to a Moderate Risk for portions of southeast New Mexico after coordination with NWS Albuquerque and El Paso. The language cites slow-moving thunderstorms, saturated soils from multiple prior Moderate ERO days, and HREF neighborhood probabilities over 70 percent for both 3 inches of rain and 10-year ARI exceedance over parts of Lincoln, Chaves, and Otero counties. Surrounding Slight and Marginal flood-risk language remains over parts of the Southwest into the southern and central Plains. WPC Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1375, issued 238 PM EDT Thursday and valid 1838Z Thursday through 0003Z Friday, flags the Pecos River Valley: flash flooding likely, with 2 to 4 inches possible where cells backbuild near the Sacramento Mountains.

No tornado or severe thunderstorm watches are current. The last issued convective watch on the SPC board is Watch 674, already expired. SPC today’s storm reports (1200 UTC September 24 through 1159 UTC September 25) show one preliminary wind report as of this desk: 60 mph at Memphis in Hall County, Texas, at 1758 UTC, relayed by NWS Lubbock. No hail or tornado reports have posted on that same page yet.

Hotspot 1 — Southeast New Mexico: Lincoln, Chaves, Otero

This is the live flood upgrade. WPC and WFO coordination put the Moderate Risk on the eastern slope of the Sacramento Mountains and the upper Pecos drainage, where soils already sit at very high NASA SPoRT moisture percentiles and flash-flood guidance is low. Cities and counties to watch: Ruidoso and the Lincoln County high country, Roswell and Chaves County, Alamogordo and Otero County, plus adjacent terrain toward the Texas line covered by MPD 1375.

Restoration read: water first. Treat any ZIP that takes a 1- to 2-inch-per-hour core as an extraction job tonight, not a tomorrow morning survey. Photograph only if it is safe. Low-water crossings and arroyos fail before the living room does. Turn around, don’t drown.

Hotspot 2 — Eastern Texas Panhandle, western Oklahoma, western Kansas

This is the SPC Marginal contour. Outlook language from Mosier and Chalmers at 1114 AM CDT Thursday: mid-to-upper 60s dewpoints east of a mid-level moisture plume, afternoon temperatures in the mid to upper 80s, MLCAPE 1500 to 2000 J/kg, weak shear, disorganized storm mode, a few water-loaded downbursts, and a couple of weak supercells possible into Kansas where a weak vorticity maximum moves through. Isolated hail or damaging gusts are the ceiling in the official text. Dodge City, Pampa, Amarillo’s eastern approaches, Altus, Elk City, and Woodward sit inside or on the edge of that language.

Restoration read: isolated wind and hail tickets, not a line. Stage one tarp crew and one extractor, not a CAT convoy. The 60 mph Memphis, Texas, report is the only official LSR on today’s SPC page as of this writing — treat it as a local pulse, not proof the whole contour verified.

Hotspot 3 — Hawaii County under Tropical Storm Nolo; East Coast coastal low is not a named landfall

The National Hurricane Center and Central Pacific Hurricane Center are issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Nolo. As of the Thursday afternoon NHC/CPHC board, Nolo was south of the Big Island with maximum sustained winds near 70 mph, a Tropical Storm Warning in effect for Hawaii County, and forecast language that it could reach hurricane strength later Thursday. That is U.S. land exposure on the Big Island. It is not a continental U.S. landfall.

Tropical Storm Fay is in the central Atlantic, hundreds of miles west-southwest of the Azores, and is not a U.S. land threat on current advisories. Hurricane Polo is off southwestern Mexico. Hurricane Odalys is well west-southwest of Baja. WPC short-range discussion also flags a developing East Coast coastal low for coastal flooding, rip currents, wind gusts, and heavy rain into the weekend. That feature is not a named hurricane making U.S. landfall. Do not staff the Mid-Atlantic as if Fay or Polo were coming ashore.

Just hit

Yesterday’s SPC report page (1200 UTC September 23 through 1159 UTC September 24) is already a ticket list, not today’s new watch: quarter-size hail at New England in Hettinger County, North Dakota, at 2307 UTC; a tree down at Van Wert in Polk County, Georgia, at 2000 UTC; a 58 mph gust 4 SE of Frederick in Tillman County, Oklahoma, at 2158 UTC. Overnight into this morning, NWS Dodge City had a Flash Flood Warning covering parts of Grant, Hamilton, Kearny, Morton, and Stanton counties in southwestern Kansas until 500 AM CDT Thursday after 2 to 3 inches of rain. That Kansas water is yesterday-into-dawn work still on the books.

The Thursday morning Storm Updates already logged the New Mexico–Plains flood slight and Dakotas hail pulse. This afternoon post is the upgrade desk: WPC Moderate on southeast New Mexico, SPC Marginal still on the High Plains, watches still zero.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS level	Status this afternoon
SE New Mexico (Lincoln / Chaves / Otero)	Flash flood, training 2–4 in cores	WPC Moderate + MPD 1375	Live flood desk
Eastern TX Panhandle / western OK / western KS	Isolated damaging gusts, isolated hail	SPC Marginal	No watch; late-day cells
SW Kansas overnight counties	Already-fallen 2–3 in rain	Expired FF.W overnight	Aftermath / still wet
Hawaii County	TS wind, surf, heavy rain	Tropical Storm Warning (Nolo)	Live tropical warning
East Coast coastal low	Coastal flood, rip, gusty wind	WPC short-range language	Not a named landfall
CONUS watches	None	No valid SPC watch	Quiet watch board

What this means for restoration teams

Southeast New Mexico is a water night. Saturated soils plus another 2 to 4 inches in a training core is wet drywall, crawlspaces, and a 24-to-48-hour mold clock. High Plains Marginal cells, if they verify, are roof, siding, and isolated tree-on-structure work — staff them as single-ZIP pulses. Hawaii County under Nolo is a separate tropical desk: wind-driven rain, surf, and outages on the Big Island, not a Gulf or Atlantic landfall. Do not mix those three crews in one dispatch board.

For teams near Roswell, Ruidoso, or Alamogordo: stage extractors and pumps before dark, not after the first flash-flood warning. For teams near Pampa, Altus, or Dodge City: one severe-warned cell is the ticket, not the whole outlook contour. Property owners should photograph damage in remaining daylight only if it is safe, call the carrier, and start extraction the same night if water is inside.

What this is not

This is not a regional derecho and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. Fay is mid-ocean. Polo is off Mexico. Odalys is well offshore in the eastern Pacific. Nolo is a Hawaii County warning, which is real U.S. land exposure, but it is not the CONUS headline. The work tonight, if it comes, will be scattered: a flooded arroyo in Lincoln or Chaves County, a downburst roof in the Texas Panhandle or western Oklahoma, leftover Kansas water from last night. That is the local-storm pattern this desk should staff.

Looking ahead

The SPC 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook issued 1228 PM CDT Thursday, September 24, 2026, valid 1200Z Friday through 1200Z Saturday, carries no severe thunderstorm areas. Summary: severe thunderstorms are not expected Friday. WPC Day 2 excessive rainfall, updated Thursday, holds a Marginal Risk from New Mexico into the Plains and over southeast New England. Day 3 convective language on the SPC homepage still shows a later Marginal window. Watch the next Storm Tracker update rather than assuming today’s Moderate flood contour is the last water line of the week.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources dated Thursday, September 24, 2026: NOAA Storm Prediction Center 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook; SPC current watches page (no valid watches as of 2107 UTC); SPC today and September 23 storm-report pages; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook and 417 PM EDT discussion (Moderate Risk, southeast New Mexico); WPC Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1375 (Pecos River Valley); WPC Day 2 ERO; SPC 1730 UTC Day 2 outlook; National Hurricane Center / CPHC advisory board for Tropical Storm Nolo, Tropical Storm Fay, Hurricane Polo, and Hurricane Odalys; National Weather Service warning text including the overnight Dodge City flash-flood warning.

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watch, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay. Related desk: Thursday morning Storm Updates.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

September 24, 2026

Storm Updates: New Mexico Flood Moderate, Western Dakotas Marginal — Wednesday, September 23, 2026

This is a live Wednesday afternoon snapshot of U.S. local-storm activity as of Wednesday, September 23, 2026. The organized desk is still water, not wind. The Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook holds a Moderate Risk across portions of central and eastern New Mexico. The Storm Prediction Center 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook (issued 2:58 p.m. CDT; Halbert/Lyons; valid 232000Z–241200Z) trims the severe overlay to a Marginal Risk across parts of the western Dakotas only. The southern Appalachians Marginal from the morning 1300 UTC package is off the 2000 UTC map. No convective watches are currently valid. No mesoscale discussions are in effect.

These are county- and ZIP-scale flood and isolated hail/wind pulses, not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. Restoration exposure this afternoon into tonight is water first in New Mexico and far west Texas (training storms, burn-scar runoff, arroyos), leftover wet soils from Ohio through the southern Appalachians, and isolated damaging gusts or marginally severe to locally 2-inch hail if the western Dakotas cells organize. Separately, Tropical Storm Nolo now carries a Hurricane Watch for Hawaii County — not a CONUS landfall, and not the Restoration Intel CAT desk. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What is live this afternoon

SPC’s 2000 UTC update says the western Dakotas forecast remains largely on track. Isolated damaging wind gusts and severe hail are possible late this afternoon where moisture pooling has put upper-50s to low-60s °F dewpoints under clearing skies. Moderate deep-layer shear and modest buoyancy (500–1,000 J/kg MLCAPE; 30–40 kt 0–6 km shear) can support organized storms and transient supercells. A CIG 1 contour was added for isolated 2-inch hail with any stronger supercell. Population centers named in the Marginal contour: Dickinson, North Dakota; Belle Fourche, South Dakota; Sidney, Montana. Tornado probabilities remain zero. No watches as of the SPC watches page update at 21:00:23 UTC Wednesday, September 23, 2026. Most recent watch on the board: 0674.

Southern Appalachians: the 2000 UTC outlook removed the 5% wind probabilities. Widespread low stratus, modest buoyancy, and a mostly cluster/multicell mode keep the severe potential low even as lightning continues in eastern Tennessee along the inverted trough.

WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 0832 UTC Wednesday, September 23, 2026; Chenard; valid 12Z Wed–12Z Thu) still owns the national headline: Moderate Risk across portions of central and eastern New Mexico. Scattered to numerous flash floods expected; locally significant and life-threatening impacts remain possible on sensitive terrain, urban drainage, and burn scars. Widespread 1–2 inches generally expected, localized 2–4 inch swaths on top of pre-12Z rain. HREF/REFS neighborhood probabilities of more than 3 inches run 40–70% on the eastern half of the Moderate area. Slight Risk into southeast Arizona and a slice of far west Texas. Separate flood desks: Slight over portions of eastern Kentucky, eastern Tennessee, and far western North Carolina; Marginal from Ohio into West Virginia and western Virginia/North Carolina; Marginal over south Florida.

Live NWS flood products this morning into midday included a flash-flood warning from NWS Albuquerque for the South Fork burn scar in south-central Lincoln County (issued 9:08 a.m. MDT, through 12:15 p.m. MDT; 0.5–1.25 inches already down; Brady, Bear, Perk, Cedar Creek, Eagle Creek, and Rio Ruidoso drainages). Flood watches remain in effect through this evening / late tonight across much of central and eastern New Mexico and south-central New Mexico including the Tularosa Basin / Alamogordo / Doña Ana corridor (NWS Albuquerque and NWS El Paso/Santa Teresa).

Hotspot 1 — Central and eastern New Mexico / far west Texas

Still the organized desk. Mid-level shortwave lifting north-northeast across New Mexico, robust upper divergence, easterly upslope, and training cells in deep southerly flow. Cloud cover is the limiter; the eastern edge of the rain shield is where heating and CAPE can still fire the heavier cores. Burn scars and arroyos fail first. The South Fork burn scar warning this morning is the restoration ticket type: debris flow of rock, mud, and vegetation into reservoirs, bridges, culverts, and the Rio Ruidoso downstream of Ruidoso Downs.

Restoration read: water first. Stage pumps and air movers before the next training band. Start extraction the same night if water is inside. Do not drive flooded arroyos. Turn around, don’t drown.

Hotspot 2 — Western Dakotas / Black Hills

The only remaining SPC Marginal as of 2000 UTC. Lee trough and moisture plume from the High Plains; widely scattered storms near the Black Hills and the Dickinson–Belle Fourche–Sidney corridor late afternoon into early evening. Isolated damaging gusts and severe hail, with a conditional isolated 2-inch hail note if a transient supercell holds together. No tornado contour. No watch.

Restoration read: isolated wind and hail, not a regional outbreak. Stage only if you already work western North Dakota, western South Dakota, or far eastern Montana. Do not pull crews off the New Mexico water desk for this.

Hotspot 3 — Eastern Tennessee / southern Appalachians flood leftover + Tropical Storm Nolo (Hawaii County)

SPC took the Marginal off this corridor at 2000 UTC. The flood overlay is still live: WPC Slight over eastern Kentucky, eastern Tennessee, and far western North Carolina; WPC Marginal from Ohio into West Virginia and western Virginia/North Carolina. Wet soils from the last several days keep flash-flood guidance low even with reduced precipitable water. Lightning and modest CAPE along the inverted trough can still produce locally heavy cells. That is a water job, not a tarp outbreak.

Separately, Central Pacific Hurricane Center / NHC Advisory 13 at 11:00 a.m. HST Wednesday, September 23, 2026: Tropical Storm Nolo, 14.5°N 155.3°W, about 310 miles south of South Point, Hawaii, 40 mph sustained, moving west-northwest at 6 mph. A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Hawaii County. Forecast: approach the Big Island Friday and Saturday; possible hurricane Thursday and possible major hurricane by the weekend. Rainfall: 15–20 inches on the Big Island with maxima near 35 inches; 5–10 inches on Maui with maxima near 20 inches. Storm surge 1–3 feet possible in Hawaii County. This is a Hawaii land threat on Friday–Saturday, not a CONUS landfall today. Polo and Odalys remain eastern Pacific systems off Mexico / well west of Baja.

Restoration read: Appalachians = leftover plus second-chance street and creek water. Hawaii County = watch the NHC package Friday; do not invent a mainland hurricane from Nolo.

Just hit

SPC local storm reports for the current 23/1200 UTC–24/1159 UTC window, as of this afternoon check: no tornado, no hail, no wind reports received yet. Do not invent LSR points for today.

The prior 22/1200 UTC–23/1159 UTC window still holds the last 24-hour ticket pile: quarter-size hail near Sterlington, Louisiana; Suncrest, Utah; and south of Colorado Springs. Wind damage across Lauderdale, Cherokee, DeKalb, St. Clair, and Shelby counties in Alabama (trees, lines, a pole on a vehicle, roof and tree damage in Montevallo). Odessa, Texas, lines and outbuilding/carport damage. Measured 59 mph near Rawlins, Wyoming. Measured 68 and 74 mph southwest of Sundown in Cochran County, Texas. Overnight into this morning the flood desk already logged El Paso County, central Virginia (Amelia / Powhatan), and a receding western North Carolina pulse around Lake Lure / Bat Cave, plus today’s South Fork burn-scar warning in Lincoln County, New Mexico.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / WPC / NWS level	Status this afternoon
Central / eastern NM and far west TX	Flash flood, training storms, burn-scar runoff	WPC Moderate + NWS flood watches / FFW	Live flood desk through Thu 12Z
Western Dakotas / Black Hills	Isolated hail / damaging gusts; conditional 2″ hail	SPC Marginal	Late afternoon–early evening
Southeast AZ	Localized flash flood	WPC Slight	Today
Eastern KY / eastern TN / far western NC	Flash flood on wet soils	WPC Slight; SPC Marginal removed at 2000Z	Afternoon–evening water
OH into WV / western VA–NC	Localized flash flood	WPC Marginal	Today
South Florida	Urban flash flood	WPC Marginal	Local
Hawaii County	TS Nolo; hurricane conditions possible late Friday	NHC Hurricane Watch	Watch now; land threat Fri–Sat
U.S. mainland tropics	No CONUS landfalling named cyclone	NHC	Quiet for CONUS land

What this means for restoration teams

New Mexico remains the water job if the Moderate risk verifies — extraction, drying, and a 24–48 hour mold clock, plus debris-flow cleanup on burn scars. Far west Texas is the eastward leak of the same plume. The Dakotas Marginal is isolated hail and wind for shops that already cover Dickinson, the Black Hills, and Sidney. The Appalachians are leftover water, not a new severe overlay. Hawaii County is a Friday–Saturday NHC problem, not today’s CONUS roll. Stage the New Mexico pumps now. Start extraction the same night if water is inside. Turn around, don’t drown.

What this is not

This is not a regional derecho and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. There is no Slight or Enhanced convective risk on the 2000 UTC Day 1 map. There are no valid convective watches. Do not write Nolo as a Gulf or Atlantic landfall; it is a Central Pacific storm with a Hurricane Watch for Hawaii County and a forecast approach to the Big Island on Friday and Saturday. Hurricane Polo (eastern Pacific, off southwest Mexico) and Hurricane Odalys (well west of Baja) are not CONUS land threats today. Today’s CONUS work, if it verifies, is New Mexico flash flood plus isolated western Dakotas hail/wind.

Looking ahead

SPC Day 2 Convective Outlook for Thursday (issued 12:44 a.m. CDT Wednesday, September 23, 2026; Squitieri; valid 241200Z–251200Z) shows no severe thunderstorm areas. Showers and scattered storms can still run from the Interior West into the central Plains behind the same Southwest impulse, but shear and buoyancy do not overlap enough for probabilities. That does not cancel tonight’s New Mexico flood problem or this afternoon’s Dakotas Marginal. Watch the next Storm Tracker update rather than assuming the Moderate rainfall risk is the last line of the week. Nolo’s Hawaii County watch is the tropical item to re-check Thursday afternoon.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources dated Wednesday, September 23, 2026: SPC 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook (Halbert/Lyons, 2:58 p.m. CDT); SPC 1630 UTC discussion (Smith/Mead); SPC watches page updated 21:00:23 UTC (no watches; last issued 0674); SPC mesoscale discussions page (none in effect); SPC today’s LSRs (none received after 1200 UTC) and 22/1200Z–23/1159Z LSRs; WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook updated 0832 UTC (Chenard); NWS Albuquerque South Fork burn-scar flash-flood warning 9:08 a.m. MDT; NWS Albuquerque and El Paso/Santa Teresa flood watches; NHC/CPHC Tropical Storm Nolo Advisory 13, 11:00 a.m. HST; SPC Day 2 outlook (Squitieri).

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watch, and local storm reports, WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay, and nhc.noaa.gov for Nolo. Morning desk on the same calendar day: Storm Updates September 23, 2026 (Morning) — New Mexico Flood Moderate, Dakotas–Appalachians Marginal.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

September 23, 2026

Storm Updates: New Mexico Flood Moderate, Utah–Southeast Marginal — Tuesday, September 22, 2026

This is a live Tuesday afternoon snapshot of U.S. local-storm activity as of Tuesday, September 22, 2026. The organized flood desk remains over southern New Mexico. The Storm Prediction Center 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook still holds two Marginal Risk corridors — much of Utah into adjacent Wyoming and Colorado, and a portion of the Southeast that the 20Z update shifted farther south and east into central Georgia and southern Alabama. No convective watches are currently valid. Restoration exposure this afternoon into tonight is water first in southern New Mexico and far west Texas, isolated severe wind and marginally severe hail on the Utah corridor, locally severe gusts plus leftover flood axes in the Southeast and central Appalachians, and tree/wire work already on the board in Lauderdale County, Alabama.

These are county- and ZIP-scale thunderstorms and flood pulses, not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. There is no named tropical cyclone threatening U.S. land this afternoon. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll. Morning desk: Storm Updates September 22, 2026 (Morning).

What is live this afternoon

SPC’s 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook (issued 2:56 p.m. CDT Tuesday, September 22, 2026; Halbert/Lyons; valid 222000Z–231200Z) keeps a Marginal Risk for much of Utah into adjacent Wyoming and Colorado, and across a portion of the Southeast. Summary: isolated severe wind gusts expected today in Utah into southwest Wyoming and western Colorado; thunderstorms capable of strong to locally severe damaging gusts also possible across parts of the Southeast. The 20Z update moved the Southeast Marginal farther south and east into central Georgia and southern Alabama, where storms had already developed in an unstable airmass with steep low-level lapse rates.

No convective watches were currently valid as of the SPC watches page update at 15:56:05 UTC Tuesday, September 22, 2026. Most recent watch on the board: 0674. Check spc.noaa.gov/products/watch before you stage.

WPC’s Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 1553 UTC Tuesday, September 22, 2026; Taylor/Chenard; valid 16Z Tue–12Z Wed) still holds a Moderate Risk across portions of southern New Mexico. WPC notes a potentially significant multi-day flood event over New Mexico and far southwest Texas, with 1–2 inches per hour rain rates this afternoon and training bands tonight. Neighborhood guidance: moderate chance of at least 3 inches (about 40–60 percent) and a low chance of at least 5 inches. Slight Risk axes remain over central to southeast Virginia into South Carolina and West Virginia into southwest Virginia. South Florida stays a WPC Marginal urban-flood desk.

Live warning-scale water this afternoon includes NWS flash-flood warnings for parts of Lincoln/Socorro, Doña Ana/Otero in New Mexico, and Randolph/Webster in West Virginia — already hung as separate Tygart Media warning pulses. NWS also had a flood advisory for west-central Lee County, Alabama (Auburn/Opelika) into late afternoon and a severe thunderstorm warning earlier over Jackson and DeKalb Counties, Alabama.

Hotspot 1 — Southern New Mexico / far west Texas

Still the national flood desk. An upper trough, jet right-entrance dynamics, deep southerly moisture, and precipitable water toward mid/late September record levels support a multi-day event. Afternoon is scattered thunderstorms and flash-flood potential; overnight guidance concentrates a rain shield with heavier cores over southern New Mexico. Sacramento Mountains burn scars remain in the higher-impact language. Flash-flood warnings this afternoon already covered Lincoln, Socorro, Doña Ana, and Otero Counties.

Restoration read: water first, overnight worse than the afternoon pulse. Stage pumps and air movers before the shield organizes. Low-water crossings and burn-scar runoff fail first. Start extraction the same night if water is inside.

Hotspot 2 — Utah into southwest Wyoming and western Colorado

SPC Marginal wind-and-hail corridor is the afternoon convective desk in the West. A potent shortwave over the western Great Basin and a belt of stronger mid-level flow from northern Arizona into central and northern Utah support scattered to numerous storms. Buoyancy stays modest (MLCAPE generally under 1,000 J/kg), but shear and cold mid-levels support organized cells, isolated large hail, and strong gusts off high bases and steep low-level lapse rates. Activity can spill into western Colorado and southwest Wyoming late afternoon into early evening. Larger centers inside the earlier outlook footprint include Salt Lake City, West Valley City, Provo, West Jordan, and Orem.

Restoration read: wind and isolated hail, not a flood CAT. Stage tarps, generators, and tree crews before early evening. Soft-metal roofs and skylights after stronger cores only if it is safe.

Hotspot 3 — Southeast / southern Appalachians

SPC Marginal for the Southeast is a slow-moving cold front into a moist airmass. The 20Z update pulled the risk south and east into central Georgia and southern Alabama, matching storms already on radar. Weak shear keeps the mode multicellular and outflow-dominant; water-loaded downdrafts can still put 50–60 mph gusts on the ground. Today’s preliminary LSRs already show Lauderdale County, Alabama wind damage: power lines down west of Lexington around 1814 UTC, a power pole and lines on a vehicle west of Rogersville around 1835 UTC, and lines down at Lauderdale County High School and the adjacent parking lot around 1856 UTC (NWS Huntsville).

WPC Slight flood axes remain over southeast Virginia into South Carolina and West Virginia into southwest Virginia, where soils are already wet and flash-flood guidance is lower. Randolph and Webster Counties, West Virginia, carried a live flash-flood warning into the evening.

Restoration read: gusty wind and street flooding can share the same ZIP. Alabama tree and wire jobs are already tickets. Charlotte-to-Atlanta language from this morning is not a derecho — treat each county warning as a local pulse.

Just hit

SPC preliminary local storm reports for the 22/1200 UTC–23/1159 UTC window (as of this afternoon hang) show no tornado reports and no hail reports yet. Wind reports on the board are Lauderdale County, Alabama: lines down 3 W Lexington; pole and lines on a vehicle 2 W Rogersville; lines down at Lauderdale County High School in Rogersville. Those are already restoration tickets — trees, wire, and possible vehicle/roof work — not a regional outbreak.

Monday night’s Appalachians–Southeast flash-flood pulse is aftermath. This afternoon’s live water is New Mexico and pockets of West Virginia, plus a Lee County, Alabama flood advisory earlier this afternoon.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / WPC / NWS level	Status this afternoon
Southern NM / far west TX	Flash flood, training rain tonight, burn-scar runoff	WPC Moderate + live FFWs	Live flood desk today–Wed
Utah into SW WY / western CO	Severe wind gusts, isolated large hail	SPC Marginal	Afternoon–early evening
SE / central GA / southern AL	Locally severe damaging gusts, trees/wire	SPC Marginal (shifted S/E at 20Z)	Live; AL LSRs already in
SE VA into SC; WV into SW VA	Flash flood / heavy rain	WPC Slight + WV FFWs	Today into tonight
South Florida	Urban flash flood	WPC Marginal	Local
U.S. mainland tropics	No landfalling tropical cyclone	NHC quiet for mainland	Quiet

What this means for restoration teams

Southern New Mexico is the water CAT if the Moderate risk verifies overnight — extraction, drying, and a 24–48 hour mold clock. Utah’s Marginal corridor is wind and isolated hail. Southeast Marginal wind is already producing Lauderdale County tickets; treat Georgia and Alabama warnings as local, not a derecho. West Virginia water is a second flood desk on already-wet ground. Stage New Mexico before the overnight shield. Start extraction the same night if water is inside. Turn around, don’t drown.

What this is not

This is not a regional derecho and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. Post-tropical Fay is open Atlantic near the Azores and is not a U.S. land threat. Hurricane Polo and Tropical Storm Odalys remain eastern Pacific systems and are not mainland landfall threats today. No convective watches are up. Do not invent a named CAT for Restoration Intel off this pulse.

Looking ahead

SPC’s current Day 2 outlook (Wednesday, September 23) is Marginal Risk as of the 1719 UTC issuance (Dean). Day 3 is currently no severe thunderstorms. That does not cancel tonight’s New Mexico flood problem or this evening’s Utah and Southeast Marginal corridors. Watch the next Storm Tracker update rather than assuming the Moderate rainfall risk is the last line of the week.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources dated Tuesday, September 22, 2026: SPC 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook (Halbert/Lyons, 2:56 p.m. CDT); SPC watches page updated 15:56:05 UTC (no watches valid; last watch 0674); SPC today’s LSRs (Lauderdale County, AL wind); WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook updated 1553 UTC (Taylor/Chenard); NWS flash-flood warnings for Lincoln/Socorro, Doña Ana/Otero, NM and Randolph/Webster, WV; NHC advisories (Fay remnant, Polo, Odalys). Morning desk: September 22, 2026 (Morning).

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watch, and local storm reports, and WPC Day 1 ERO for the flood overlay.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

September 22, 2026

Storm Updates: Appalachians–Southeast Marginal + Central Appalachians Flood Slight — Monday, September 21, 2026

This is a live Monday afternoon snapshot of U.S. local-storm activity as of Monday, September 21, 2026. The Storm Prediction Center 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook holds a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms from parts of the Southeast into the central Appalachians and over the Texas South Plains. No convective watches are currently valid. The Weather Prediction Center maintains a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over portions of the central Appalachians. Scattered severe thunderstorm warnings and flash-flood warnings remain active this afternoon across portions of the Tennessee Valley, Carolinas, Alabama, and West Virginia.

These are county- and ZIP-scale thunderstorms and localized heavy-rain pulses, not a mainland hurricane landfall or organized derecho. Restoration exposure this afternoon and evening is wind-driven tree and roof work, isolated hail, and interior water where cells train or flash-flood warnings verify. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What is live this afternoon

SPC’s Marginal Risk covers the Southeast into the southern and central Appalachians, with isolated damaging wind gusts of 50–60 mph the primary threat. A second Marginal area sits over the Texas South Plains where isolated large hail and severe gusts remain possible later today. Mesoscale Discussion 2323 (issued 1938 UTC) covers the Texas South Plains into the Permian Basin and notes watch issuance is unlikely; strongest storms may briefly produce large hail up to 1.25 inches and marginally severe wind.

WPC’s Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook keeps a Slight Risk over the central Appalachians (expanded earlier to include more of West Virginia and southwest Virginia). Guidance supports 1–3 inches with locally higher amounts where cells train near a backdoor cold front and shortwave energy. Flash Flood Warnings and Flood Warnings remain active or recently expired across portions of West Virginia, Ohio, and adjacent counties from overnight and early-morning convection.

Hotspot 1 — Central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic fringe (WPC Slight + SPC Marginal)

This is the dual-threat corridor. Scattered thunderstorms continue along and south of a cold front stretching from southern Virginia west-northwest into northern Kentucky and southwestward. Highest coverage expected from southeast Tennessee and northwest Georgia through northern Alabama into central/southern Mississippi and eastern Louisiana, with additional activity into southwest Virginia and West Virginia. Vertical shear is weak; storm mode is largely multicellular and outflow-dominant, but ample moisture (PW values over 2 inches) supports strong to locally severe gusts and flash flooding on saturated soils.

Cities and counties to watch: Charleston, Parkersburg, and surrounding West Virginia counties; southwest Virginia counties including Giles, Mercer, and Summers; portions of eastern Kentucky and southern Ohio; Chattanooga and Knoxville metro fringes in Tennessee; northern Alabama counties including Madison and Marshall.

Restoration read: wind and water both in play. Stage tarps, generators, and tree crews. Flash-flood warnings mean extraction and drying work may already be on the books by evening. Photograph roofs in remaining daylight only if it is safe.

Hotspot 2 — Texas South Plains and northeast Texas

Isolated to widely scattered storms continue near the intersection of a weak surface trough and cold front across the Texas South Plains into the Permian Basin. MD 2323 flags the potential for brief severe storms capable of large hail and marginally severe wind before dissipation this evening. A secondary area of higher thunderstorm coverage is expected over northeast Texas this afternoon and evening, where water-loaded downbursts capable of damaging wind gusts are possible.

Cities and counties to watch: Lubbock, Midland, and surrounding South Plains counties; portions of northeast Texas near the Red River. Local Severe Thunderstorm Warnings have already fired this afternoon in the region.

Restoration read: hail and wind first. Check vehicle and roof damage reports quickly; these are short-lived cells but can produce ticket-scale damage in a single ZIP.

Hotspot 3 — Southeast scatter (Carolinas, Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi)

Ongoing multicell storms continue to produce local Severe Thunderstorm Warnings with 60 mph wind and small to quarter-size hail. Coverage is highest from southeast Tennessee and northwest Georgia through northern Alabama into central/southern Mississippi and eastern Louisiana. Storms are moving relatively slowly or nearly stationary in places, increasing the local flash-flood and wind-damage potential.

Cities and counties to watch: Chattanooga, Huntsville, Birmingham metro areas; portions of the Carolinas and northern Georgia where warnings have been active this afternoon.

Restoration read: scattered wind and tree damage plus isolated water jobs. Treat each warning county as its own ticket rather than a regional event.

Just hit

Overnight and early-morning convection produced Flash Flood Warnings across portions of West Virginia and southeast Ohio, with residual river and stream rises still ongoing in some gauges. Yesterday’s High Plains activity (eastern Colorado into western Kansas) produced large hail reports up to baseball size and is already in the ticket pipeline for those counties. Local wind damage reports from trees and power lines continue to filter in from the Ohio Valley, Illinois, Missouri, Georgia, Alabama, and the Carolinas. No new U.S. mainland tropical cyclone threat is in the National Hurricane Center outlook at this hour.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS level	Status this afternoon
Central Appalachians / WV–SW VA	Flash flood, damaging wind, trees	WPC Slight + SPC Marginal	Live warnings + overnight residual
Southeast / TN–AL–GA–MS–Carolinas	Damaging wind, isolated hail, lightning	SPC Marginal + local SVR	Scattered warnings active
Texas South Plains / NE TX	Large hail, severe gusts	SPC Marginal + MD 2323	Isolated cells, watch unlikely
Ohio Valley residual	Flooding from earlier rain	Local Flood Warnings	Aftermath / still in channel
Atlantic / Gulf vs. U.S. mainland	No landfalling tropical cyclone	Quiet on the mainland coast	Quiet

What this means for restoration teams

Wind at 50–60 mph is roof, siding, gutter, and tree-on-structure work. Hail on the South Plains is vehicle and roof impact. Heavy rain on the central Appalachians Slight Risk is wet drywall and a 24–48 hour mold clock where flash flooding verifies. Overnight West Virginia and Ohio water is already inside some buildings.

For teams near active warnings: stage before the next cell arrives, not after the first report. Property owners should photograph damage in daylight if it is safe, call the carrier, and start extraction the same night if water is inside.

What this is not

This is not a regional derecho and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. The work this afternoon and evening, if it verifies, will be scattered: a wind swath through a Tennessee or West Virginia county, a flooded intersection where Appalachian cells train, isolated hail on the South Plains. That is the local-storm pattern this desk should staff.

Looking ahead

Tuesday the front continues to push south and east with another Marginal Risk possible over portions of the Southeast. Residual flooding in the central Appalachians may linger into Tuesday morning. Watch the next Storm Tracker update rather than assuming today’s Marginal and Slight Risk areas are the last line of the week.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Convective Outlook (2000 UTC, September 21, 2026) and Mesoscale Discussion 2323; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook; National Weather Service warning text for Charleston WV, Blacksburg VA, Huntsville AL, Morristown TN, Lubbock TX, and neighboring offices; SPC Local Storm Reports.

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watches, MDs, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay. Related desk: Monday morning Storm Updates.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

September 21, 2026

Storm Updates: Oklahoma and High Plains Slight Risk — Sunday, September 20, 2026

This is a live Sunday afternoon snapshot of U.S. local-storm activity as of Sunday, September 20, 2026. The organized pulse is still the Storm Prediction Center Slight Risk over central and eastern Oklahoma and from eastern Colorado into far western Kansas. As of 2013 UTC, no convective watches are valid. Overnight Severe Thunderstorm Watches 670, 671, and 672 have expired. Restoration exposure this afternoon and evening is damaging wind and large hail on the Oklahoma and High Plains Slight Risk, leftover interior water where Midwest and Ohio Valley cells trained last night, and a local Florida flash-flood polygon that is not the national headline.

These are county- and ZIP-scale thunderstorms, not a mainland hurricane landfall. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What is live this afternoon

The SPC 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook, issued 0244 PM CDT Sunday, September 20, 2026 and valid 202000Z–211200Z, holds a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of central and eastern Oklahoma and from eastern Colorado into far western Kansas. The official summary: thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and large hail remain possible this afternoon and evening across those two corridors. Isolated severe gusts and hail are also possible in parts of the southern Plains and from the Ozarks eastward into the Ohio Valley. The 20Z update said the forecast remained generally on track with only minor adjustments.

No watches are currently valid. The most recently issued watch was Severe Thunderstorm Watch 672. Mesoscale Discussion 2316, issued 0149 PM CDT Sunday and valid through 2115 UTC, covers northeast and eastern Colorado, far western Kansas, and southwest Nebraska. Language is severe potential, watch possible, with a 60 percent watch-issuance probability. Isolated storms over northeast Colorado, large hail probable, a few severe gusts possible by early evening. Most probable peak hail size in that MD is 1.50 to 2.50 inches. Most probable peak wind gust 55 to 70 mph.

The Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, updated 1602 UTC Sunday and valid 16 UTC September 20 through 12 UTC September 21, keeps Slight Risks over portions of the Midwest and Ohio Valley and over the northern High Plains. The 16Z update trimmed the northern edge of the Midwest Slight (northern Illinois, southern Iowa, northern Missouri) and kept the better confidence farther east into the Upper Ohio Valley, where antecedent 24-hour totals already ran 1 to 2 inches areal average and 3 to 4 inches locally. A separate Slight pocket remains focused over southwest South Dakota and the Black Hills on upslope flow and Saturday’s leftover wet ground.

Hotspot 1 — Central and eastern Oklahoma

This is one of the two Slight Risk contours on the 2000 UTC outlook. A surface low sits over central Oklahoma along a cold front that arcs from northeast Oklahoma into southwest Oklahoma and back through the central Texas Panhandle. A shortwave trough is moving into western Oklahoma. The airmass ahead of the front is warm, moist, and moderately buoyant. Mid-level flow is stronger across Oklahoma than across Texas, which is why the organized severe corridor is drawn here rather than over the more disorganized Texas cells. Primary threat language is damaging gusts of 55 to 65 mph, with hail in the stronger cores.

Cities and counties to watch: Tulsa, Broken Arrow, Muskogee, Shawnee, Ardmore, and the rest of the central and eastern Oklahoma Slight contour. Oklahoma City sits near the western edge of the broader risk language even when it is not the center of the Slight.

Restoration read: wind and hail first. Stage tarps, generators, and roof tarping before dark. Photograph roofs in remaining daylight only if it is safe. Do not treat this as a statewide outbreak. It is a corridor.

Hotspot 2 — Eastern Colorado into far western Kansas and southwest Nebraska

This is the other Slight Risk plus MD 2316. Easterly low-level flow north of the surface front is holding 50s F dewpoints across eastern Colorado. Heating plus cool temperatures aloft support moderate destabilization. Storm coverage is expected to stay isolated to widely scattered because of cooler surface temperatures and leftover inhibition, but any storm that matures is favored to be supercellular. Primary severe hazard on the outlook is large hail of 1 to 2.5 inches. Isolated severe gusts are possible. Some lingering severe risk may develop over southeast Colorado late this evening and spread into the Oklahoma Panhandle overnight.

Cities and counties to watch: the Palmer Divide and northeast Colorado, Lamar and the High Plains counties, far western Kansas, and southwest Nebraska where left-split cells can throw hail. Local Severe Thunderstorm Warnings already fired this afternoon in Dundy and Chase Counties, Nebraska.

Restoration read: hail and isolated wind. This is a few strong cells, not a line. Staff it as spot jobs — broken shingles, cracked skylights, vehicle and siding hits — not a regional CAT.

Hotspot 3 — Midwest and Ohio Valley flood leftovers, plus a Florida polygon

WPC keeps a Slight excessive-rainfall risk on last night’s rain axis from central Illinois and east-central Missouri into the Upper Ohio Valley. Antecedent ground is already wet. Training or backbuilding later this evening and overnight could add 2 to 4 inches in the better cores. River and flash-flood products this morning and midday covered eastern Iowa (Quad Cities, Cedar Rapids, Kalona and the English River), the Parkersburg–Athens Ohio River corridor, Charleston and Huntington, Washington County, Pennsylvania, and eastern Ohio counties including Belmont, Guernsey, Harrison, Jefferson, and Tuscarawas. The Des Plaines River near Russell, Illinois, has a new Flood Warning for minor flooding from this afternoon until further notice.

A separate local Flash Flood Warning this afternoon covers southwestern Suwannee County, Florida, with 2 to 3 inches already down. That is a North Florida urban and low-water-crossing desk, not the Slight Risk story.

Restoration read: yesterday’s water is already a ticket in Iowa, Ohio, West Virginia, and western Pennsylvania. Today’s new water, if it verifies, is more of the same corridor plus a standalone Florida polygon. Do not send the Oklahoma hail crew to the Ohio River without checking which county still has a warning.

Just hit

Saturday night’s Severe Thunderstorm Watches 670 (Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas), 671 (Colorado, Kansas), and 672 (Kansas, Missouri) are closed. Those are already on the books as wind and hail tickets across the central Plains and Lower Missouri Valley. Overnight and this morning’s Flash Flood Warnings along the Iowa–Illinois line and the Ohio River are extraction and drying work, not a new watch. This afternoon’s new work, if it verifies, is the Oklahoma wind corridor and High Plains hail cells under MD 2316.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS level	Status this afternoon
Central / eastern Oklahoma	Damaging wind 55–65 mph, hail	SPC Slight	Live outlook; no watch
Eastern CO / far western KS / SW NE	Large hail 1–2.5 in, isolated severe gusts	SPC Slight + MD 2316 (watch possible)	Isolated supercells favored
Ozarks to Ohio Valley	Isolated damaging gusts, leftover water	SPC Marginal; WPC Slight flood	Scattered plus aftermath
Northern High Plains / Black Hills	Flash flood on wet ground	WPC Slight excessive rainfall	Afternoon–overnight cells
SW Suwannee County, FL	Local flash flood	NWS Flash Flood Warning	Standalone polygon
Atlantic / EPAC vs. U.S. land	No U.S. landfalling tropical cyclone	NHC: Fay far east-Atlantic; Odalys and TD 17-E over open Pacific	Quiet on the mainland coast

What this means for restoration teams

Oklahoma wind at 55 to 65 mph is roof, siding, gutter, and tree-on-structure work. High Plains hail of 1 to 2.5 inches is shingle and auto work in a few counties, not a multi-state CAT. Midwest and Ohio Valley water from Saturday night is already inside some buildings. That mold clock started this morning, not this evening.

For teams near the Oklahoma Slight or the Colorado–Kansas MD: stage before the first warning, not after. Property owners should photograph damage in daylight if it is safe, call the carrier, and start extraction the same night if water is inside. For teams on the Iowa and Ohio River leftovers: you are already on yesterday’s tickets. Check which gauge is still in flood before you drive.

What this is not

This is not a regional derecho and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. Tropical Storm Fay is in the far eastern Atlantic near 34.4°N, 32.7°W and is not a U.S. land threat this afternoon. Tropical Storm Odalys and Tropical Depression Seventeen-E are over the eastern Pacific, well offshore. The work tonight, if it comes, will be scattered: a wind swath through an Oklahoma county, hail on the High Plains, leftover water in an Iowa or Ohio River town. That is the local-storm pattern this desk should staff.

Looking ahead

Monday’s SPC Day 2 Convective Outlook, issued 1137 AM CDT Sunday, is a Marginal Risk from Mississippi to the central and southern Appalachians. Official summary: a few instances of damaging gusts are possible across the central and southern Appalachians to northern and central Mississippi. Coverage is isolated to widely scattered. Shear is expected to stay weak. Watch the next Storm Tracker update rather than assuming today’s Slight is Monday’s story.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources, all date-stamped Sunday, September 20, 2026: NOAA Storm Prediction Center 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook; SPC current watches page (no watches valid as of 2013 UTC); Mesoscale Discussion 2316; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook updated 1602 UTC; National Hurricane Center public page as of 2120 UTC; National Weather Service watch/warning text including Pittsburgh, Charleston, Chicago, La Crosse, and Tallahassee products. Morning desk for this calendar day: Storm Updates: Oklahoma and High Plains Slight Risk — Sunday, September 20, 2026 (Morning).

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watches, MDs, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

September 20, 2026

Storm Updates: Kansas–Oklahoma Watch 670 + Midwest–Montana Flood Moderate — Saturday, September 19, 2026

This is a live Saturday afternoon snapshot of U.S. local-storm activity as of Saturday, September 19, 2026. The organized pulse is on the Central Plains cold front. The Storm Prediction Center 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook holds a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of the central Plains and central High Plains, covering about 56,800 square miles and nearly 2 million people in the Slight contour, with Wichita, Topeka, Lawrence, St. Joseph, and Salina inside the risk area. Severe Thunderstorm Watch 670 is in effect from 3:20 p.m. until 11:00 p.m. CDT for central into northeast Kansas, western into north-central Oklahoma, and the eastern Texas Panhandle.

These are county-scale thunderstorms and training rain, not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. Restoration exposure this afternoon and tonight is wind-driven roof and siding work, hail dents on the High Plains, trees on wires in the Southeast leftover cells, and interior water where WPC Moderate flood-risk storms stall over eastern Iowa, northern Illinois, northern Indiana, and southern Montana. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What is live this afternoon

Watch 670, issued 3:20 p.m. CDT Saturday, September 19, 2026, is the live convective watch. Primary threat language is scattered damaging winds with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible, plus isolated large hail to 1.5 inches. The watch box is drawn roughly along and 65 miles either side of a line from 115 miles west-southwest of Alva, Oklahoma, to 35 miles east-southeast of Manhattan, Kansas. SPC Mesoscale Discussion 2309, issued 2:34 p.m. CDT, had already flagged northwest Oklahoma into central and northeast Kansas for watch consideration; that discussion is now overtaken by the watch itself.

The 2000 UTC outlook summary is unchanged from mid-morning: thunderstorms with scattered severe wind gusts and large hail are possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the central Plains. A Marginal Risk still wraps Indianapolis, Columbus, Denver, Kansas City, and Atlanta. Ohio Valley convection has struggled to stay organized along a surging outflow boundary from north of Columbus into southern Illinois and Indiana; SPC trimmed the northern edge of the Marginal there after temperatures behind the outflow fell into the upper 70s.

The Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, updated 1602 UTC Saturday, September 19, 2026, holds a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall in portions of the Midwest — particularly eastern Iowa, northern Illinois, and northern Indiana — and a second Moderate Risk over portions of southern Montana. Guidance cited by WPC includes moderate-to-high probabilities of totals exceeding 5 inches in the better Midwest cores, with some low-end probabilities of 8 inches. Day 2 outlook language eases that to a Slight Risk over parts of the Midwest and Ohio Valley on Sunday.

Hotspot 1 — Central into northeast Kansas, western into north-central Oklahoma, eastern Texas Panhandle

This is the live watch. A cold front is dropping south from southwest Iowa through southwest Kansas and the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles. Ahead of it the airmass is seasonably moist and, by mid-afternoon, moderately unstable. SPC expects a few short-lived supercells early, then high-based storms and line segments capable of 60 to 75 mph gusts. MD 2309 noted temperatures near 100 F from Texas into southern Kansas, dewpoints near 60 F in the eastern Texas Panhandle and mid-60s toward Wichita, and most-probable peak gusts of 65–80 mph with hail of 1.00–1.75 inches.

Cities and counties to watch: Wichita, Topeka, Lawrence, Salina, Manhattan, and St. Joseph on the Missouri side of the Slight contour; Alva and northwest Oklahoma; the eastern Texas Panhandle. A 67 mph gust was already measured 3 miles south-southwest of Freedom in Woodward County, Oklahoma, at 2040 UTC.

Restoration read: wind first, hail second. Stage tarps, generators, and tree crews before dark across the watch. Photograph roofs in remaining daylight only if it is safe. Treat any ZIP that also sits under training rain as a water job by morning.

Hotspot 2 — Eastern Iowa, northern Illinois, northern Indiana flood Moderate

This is the water desk, not the watch. WPC’s 16Z update kept a Moderate Risk of 1-to-6-hour rainfall exceeding flash-flood guidance over eastern Iowa, northern Illinois, and northern Indiana. A surface low over the middle Mississippi Valley and enhanced forcing ahead of it support intense cores and high instantaneous rates. Urban streets, low-water crossings, and small streams fail first. Sunday’s Day 2 ERO drops this corridor to Slight, so tonight into Sunday morning is the higher-end window.

Restoration read: extraction and drying, not hail claims. If a cell trains over the same ZIP for more than an hour, treat it as an occupied-structure water job. Do not send the same crew to the Kansas watch and a Quad Cities flood call without checking which county actually has a warning now.

Hotspot 3 — Central High Plains and southern Montana

SPC holds the Slight Risk west into the central High Plains. Low-level easterly flow is holding upper-50s to low-60s dewpoints. A shortwave moving out of the Great Basin is expected to organize a loosely cellular band into a linear cluster, with hail early and wind later, and some indication the activity continues into western Kansas overnight. Preliminary LSRs already include 1.25-inch hail 5 miles north of Matheson in Elbert County, Colorado, at 2044 UTC, and measured gusts of 59 and 66 mph near Byers in Arapahoe County around 2003–2006 UTC.

Separately, WPC expanded the inherited Moderate excessive-rainfall risk over southern and southeast Montana, matching HREF/RRFS probabilities of rainfall exceeding 3 inches and low-end probabilities over 5 inches. That is a High Plains flood and debris-flow desk in burn scars and small drainages, not the Kansas watch.

Restoration read: Colorado and western Kansas are wind-and-hail tickets tonight. Southern Montana is water and mud. Do not conflate the two.

Just hit

SPC today’s storm reports (1200 UTC September 19 through the afternoon) show no tornadoes as of this desk. Hail: quarter-size near Rome in Floyd County, Georgia, at 1935 UTC; 1.25-inch north of Matheson, Colorado. Wind: trees and power lines down at Signal Mountain and South Pittsburg, Tennessee; trees and blocked roads in Etowah and Jackson Counties, Alabama; multiple trees down near Warm Springs and Highland Park, Georgia; 59–66 mph near Byers, Colorado; 67 mph near Freedom, Oklahoma. Those tree and wire reports are already tickets.

A morning Storm Tracker for this calendar day is already on the site: Storm Updates: Kansas Slight Risk + Midwest–Montana Flood Moderate — Saturday, September 19, 2026 (Morning). This afternoon post is the watch-and-LSR update, not a reprint of Friday.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS level	Status this afternoon
Central / NE Kansas, W / NC Oklahoma, E Texas Panhandle	Damaging wind 60–75 mph, isolated 1.5-inch hail	Slight + Watch 670 to 11 p.m. CDT	Live watch
Eastern Iowa / northern Illinois / northern Indiana	Flash flood, training heavy rain	WPC Moderate excessive rainfall	Tonight into Sunday morning
Southern / southeast Montana	Flash flood, 3–5 inch cores	WPC Moderate excessive rainfall	Today into tonight
Central High Plains / NE Colorado	Wind, marginally severe hail	Slight / Marginal	Live LSRs near Byers and Matheson
Ohio Valley (IN / OH / IL outflow)	Isolated damaging gusts	Marginal, trimmed on north edge	Poorly organized
Southern Appalachians / Southeast	Trees, 50–60 mph wet microbursts	Marginal / local SVR	Just-hit trees in TN, AL, GA
Atlantic vs. U.S. mainland	TD Six near the Azores; no U.S. land threat	No mainland tropical watch	Quiet on the coast

What this means for restoration teams

Wind at 60–75 mph inside Watch 670 is roof, siding, gutter, and tree-on-structure work from Wichita through Topeka and across northwest Oklahoma. Hail to 1.5 inches is a vehicle and roof-dent ticket, not a regional catastrophe. Midwest Moderate flood risk is wet drywall and a 24–48 hour mold clock if occupied structures take water. Southern Montana is the same water problem on different terrain.

For teams in or near Watch 670: stage before 5 p.m. CDT, not after the first warning. Property owners should photograph damage in daylight if it is safe, call the carrier, and start extraction the same night if water is inside. Southeast tree jobs from this afternoon’s Alabama, Georgia, and Tennessee cells are already on the board.

What this is not

This is not a regional derecho and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. Tropical Depression Six is several hundred miles southwest of the Azores with 35 mph winds and no coastal watches for the United States. The work tonight, if it verifies, will be scattered: a wind swath through a Kansas or Oklahoma county, a flooded intersection where Iowa or Illinois cells train, isolated hail on the High Plains, leftover trees in the Tennessee Valley. That is the local-storm pattern this desk should staff.

Looking ahead

Sunday’s SPC Day 2 outlook remains a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the central High Plains and southern Plains. WPC Day 2 excessive rainfall eases the Midwest corridor to Slight. Day 3 convective risk is Marginal. Later in the week WPC language flags a wetter pattern for the Southern High Plains and Rockies, and a frontal system toward the East midweek. Watch the next Storm Tracker rather than assuming Watch 670 is the last line of the weekend.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources dated Saturday, September 19, 2026: NOAA Storm Prediction Center 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook; Severe Thunderstorm Watch 670; Mesoscale Discussion 2309; SPC today’s local storm reports; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook updated 1602 UTC; National Hurricane Center advisories on Tropical Depression Six (Azores, no U.S. land threat). Morning desk on this calendar day: September 19 morning Storm Updates.

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watch, and LSRs, Watch 670 text, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

September 19, 2026

Storm Updates: Carolinas Wind Pulse + Upper Mississippi Flood Slight — Friday, September 18, 2026

This is a live Friday afternoon snapshot of U.S. local-storm activity as of Friday, September 18, 2026. The Storm Prediction Center 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook holds a Marginal Risk of isolated severe thunderstorms from the Carolina Piedmont into northern Georgia, northern Iowa, parts of the central High Plains, and parts of the Intermountain West. No convective watches are valid. Mesoscale discussions referenced in the 2000 UTC package (MCDs 2306 and 2307) are no longer in effect. The Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook is the organized ticket: Slight Risk over portions of the Upper Mississippi Valley and a second Slight Risk over southwest Montana. There is no named tropical cyclone in the Atlantic, eastern Pacific, or central Pacific.

These are county- and ZIP-scale thunderstorms and flash-flood pulses, not a mainland hurricane landfall. Restoration exposure this afternoon is wind and trees already verifying across central North Carolina, isolated hail leftover from Intermountain cells, and water tonight from southeast Minnesota into west-central Wisconsin. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What is live this afternoon

SPC issued the 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook at 0241 PM CDT, valid 182000Z–191200Z. Forecasters Chalmers and Wendt made only minor adjustments from the midday package. Headline: an isolated severe risk continues for portions of the Carolinas into northern Georgia and parts of the Intermountain West. Isolated severe storms are also forecast later today across portions of northern Iowa and parts of the central High Plains. Risk-area population centers listed by SPC include Charlotte, Atlanta, Raleigh, Greensboro, and Durham. Categorical risk is Marginal only. No Slight Risk on Day 1. No tornado probabilities in the 2000 UTC categorical headline. Risk-area size on the 2000 UTC graphic is about 179,316 square miles covering roughly 19.6 million people.

Current convective watches: none. SPC watch page last updated 1805 UTC Friday: no watches currently valid. Most recently issued watch remains Severe Thunderstorm Watch 669, already expired. Do not treat 669 as a live product.

The 2000 UTC discussion points to MCDs 2306 and 2307 for additional information. By late afternoon the live MD list showed no mesoscale discussions currently in effect. Most recently issued discussion on the current-MD page was 2305. Treat those numbers as the latest issued discussions, not standing watches.

WPC Day 1 excessive-rainfall language valid 16Z Friday through 12Z Saturday holds Slight Risk for portions of the Upper Mississippi Valley and southwest Montana. The 16Z update expanded the eastern edge of the Slight and high-end Slight about one to two counties into southeast Wisconsin and northeast Illinois, where recent heavy rain left the ground sensitive. Highest amounts still focus over southeast Minnesota and west-central Wisconsin, with model-consensus QPF in the 2 to 4 inch range. A separate Slight Risk covers southwest Montana. Marginal Risk remains over South Florida and the Keys, a remnant Intermountain/Southwest terrain corridor, a Northern Plains strip, and a thin Ohio Valley pocket. WPC’s short-range discussion already flags a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall Saturday over parts of the Upper Great Lakes into the Middle Mississippi Valley. That is tomorrow’s water upgrade, not today’s Day 1 map.

Hotspot 1 — Carolina Piedmont into northern Georgia

A wavy stationary front this morning ran from southern Illinois through southern Indiana and southern Ohio into southwest Pennsylvania. Decaying showers preceded it from southern Illinois into northern Kentucky. The boundary is shifting south as cooler air follows a shortwave through southern Quebec and the Canadian Maritimes. The front is relatively weak, but it is interacting with a warm, moist, diurnally destabilized airmass across the Carolina Piedmont and northern Georgia. Precipitable water is over 2 inches. Vertical shear is weak. Storm mode is outflow-dominant. The risk is occasionally strong downbursts, not a long-lived supercell corridor.

That language already verified this afternoon. Preliminary LSRs on the 18/1200Z cycle include a 69 mph gust at KGSO (5 ESE Colfax, Guilford County), a 66 mph gust at KFAY (4 ENE Hope Mills, Cumberland County), trees down on I-85 near Route 68, trees blocking roads in Randolph, Davie, Iredell, Rowan, Chatham, and Moore counties, and a power-company outage from downed trees northwest of Craven in Rowan County. Those are trees-on-pavement and trees-on-wires tickets in the Charlotte–Greensboro–Fayetteville corridor, not a watch-scale outbreak.

Restoration read: wind first. Stage tree, tarp, and board-up capacity for the Piedmont counties that already have LSRs. Hail is not the lead threat on this corridor. Water is secondary unless a cell trains over the same ZIP that already took a 2-inch precipitable-water plume.

Hotspot 2 — Upper Mississippi Valley water

A Northern Plains disturbance continues east from the Dakotas across southern Minnesota into Wisconsin tonight. WPC keeps the Slight Risk and high-end Slight focused on southeast Minnesota and west-central Wisconsin, with the eastern edge nudged into southeast Wisconsin and northeast Illinois because those counties already took rain. Local NWS language from La Crosse this afternoon still has 1–3 inches likely and 4–6 inches possible in pockets, with a Flood Watch south of I-94 and rivers such as the Kickapoo at Gays Mills and Viola and the Cedar at Charles City expected to reach minor flood stage if the heavier corridor verifies.

SPC’s northern Iowa Marginal is a separate overlay: elevated storms tonight on warm-air advection and a moderate low-level jet, with isolated hail the primary severe hazard and a strong gust or two if any linear structures develop. That is hail and wind on the southern edge of the water corridor, not a Slight Risk severe day.

Restoration read: water first from southeast Minnesota through west-central Wisconsin into northeast Iowa tonight. Extraction and wet-drywall clocks start the same night if water is inside. Do not send the same crew to a Piedmont tree job and a Kickapoo basement without checking which county has a warning now.

Hotspot 3 — Intermountain West and central High Plains

A shortwave trough continues east into southern Idaho and northern Utah. Highs stay relatively cool — upper 60s in southern Idaho, low to mid 70s in northern Utah — but cold temperatures aloft plus strong deep-layer shear still support organized updrafts. Isolated severe gusts and small hail remain the SPC language. That already verified on today’s LSR cycle: 1.50-inch hail 2 W of Kaysville in Davis County, Utah, and quarter-size hail near Farmington in San Juan County, New Mexico.

On the High Plains, a mid-level vorticity maximum lifting north-northeast later this evening may support isolated severe gusts and a conditional, less-than-5-percent hail risk if a more cellular mode holds into better low-level moisture near the Colorado–Nebraska–Kansas border. Storms may grow upscale into a small eastward-moving cluster this evening. Isolated outflow surges, not a derecho.

Restoration read: hail first if cells verify over the Wasatch Front or the Four Corners. Wind second if High Plains clusters organize. Flash-flood risk on this corridor is Marginal to isolated except for the separate southwest Montana Slight Risk, where WPC introduced Slight coverage after Thursday’s cell behavior and 0.5–1.5 inch guidance.

Just hit

SPC preliminary storm reports for the current 18/1200Z–19/1159Z cycle already include one brief landspout at Lighthouse Point in Broward County, Florida (palm fronds lofted; no damage path described as a supercell tornado), quarter to 1.50-inch hail in San Juan County, New Mexico, and Davis County, Utah, and a long list of North Carolina wind reports from Davie, Guilford, Randolph, Cumberland, Iredell, Rowan, Chatham, and Moore counties, including measured 69 mph at Greensboro and 66 mph at Fayetteville.

The last 24-hour ticket pile on the prior cycle (17/1200Z–18/1159Z) is the Idaho hail outbreak the morning desk already logged: tennis-ball hail (2.50 inches) near Rose in Bingham County, golf-ball hail in Blackfoot and Shelley, quarter to 1.25-inch hail across Bingham, Blaine, Jefferson, and Bear Lake counties, plus 1.50-inch hail at Midway, Wasatch County, Utah, and 1.50-inch hail near Broadwater, Morrill County, Nebraska. Wind on that cycle included power lines down at Lewisville, Jefferson County, Idaho; a 61 mph gust south-southwest of Mud Lake; trees in Beavercreek, Greene County, Ohio; a tree-fall injury in Ashland, Boyd County, Kentucky; and trees in Tippecanoe and Carroll counties, Indiana. A brief tornado touchdown was reported 11 NNE of Chappell in Garden County, Nebraska. Those products are expired. The roofs and cars in Bingham County are still the ticket.

This morning’s Storm Tracker already covered the 1300 UTC outlook family. This afternoon desk updates to the 2000 UTC package, confirms still-zero watches, and adds the live North Carolina LSR cluster and the WPC 16Z flood-edge nudge into southeast Wisconsin and northeast Illinois.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS / WPC level	Status this afternoon
Carolina Piedmont / northern GA	Downburst wind, trees, wires	SPC Marginal	Live — LSRs already in
SE MN / west-central WI / NE IA	Flash flood, 2–4″ swaths	WPC Slight (high-end core)	Tonight’s organized water ticket
Northern Iowa / far southern MN	Isolated hail, isolated gusts	SPC Marginal	Elevated storms tonight
Southern ID / northern UT / Four Corners	Isolated hail and severe gusts	SPC Marginal	Live cells; 1.50″ hail at Kaysville
Central High Plains	Isolated severe gusts	SPC Marginal	Evening cluster if heating holds
Southwest Montana	Flash flood, 0.5–1.5″	WPC Slight	Diurnal terrain cells
South Florida / Keys	Urban flooding, landspout noise	WPC Marginal	Diurnal; one brief landspout LSR
Bingham County ID (overnight)	Tennis-ball to golf-ball hail	LSRs prior cycle	Just-hit
Atlantic / Gulf vs. U.S. mainland	No named cyclone	NHC: no tropical cyclones	Quiet on the mainland coast

What this means for restoration teams

The live ticket this afternoon is wind on the Carolina Piedmont: trees, wires, and a measured 66–69 mph pair at Greensboro and Fayetteville. Isolated Intermountain hail is a roof and auto-glass survey if cells keep firing over the Wasatch Front or Farmington, New Mexico. The organized ticket tonight is still water from southeast Minnesota through west-central Wisconsin. Idaho’s overnight tennis-ball hail around Blackfoot, Rose, and Shelley is a separate just-hit staffing problem from this afternoon’s Piedmont wind.

For teams near the Carolina Marginal: the warnings and LSRs are already out. Photograph damage in daylight if it is safe, call the carrier, and start extraction the same night if water is inside. Turn around, don’t drown on Upper Mississippi and Montana washes.

What this is not

This is not a Slight Risk severe day, not a live convective watch, and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. MCDs 2306 and 2307 are not watches. The Broward landspout is a brief landspout LSR, not a tornado outbreak. NHC reports no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, eastern Pacific, or central Pacific as of this afternoon. The work, if it keeps verifying, will be scattered: a tree swath through a Piedmont county, a hail report on the Wasatch Front, and heavier rain over southeast Minnesota and west-central Wisconsin tonight.

Looking ahead

SPC Day 2 (Saturday) holds a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms late Saturday afternoon and evening from northwest Oklahoma into eastern Kansas, with more isolated severe storms possible across the central High Plains, central Rockies, and the Midwest to Southeast. The 1730 UTC Day 2 summary calls for scattered severe wind and hail-producing storms on the central Plains. WPC already has a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall Saturday over parts of the Upper Great Lakes into the Middle Mississippi Valley. The next Storm Tracker update should re-check the 0100 UTC Day 1 outlook, any new watches, and whether that Moderate flood risk is the morning headline rather than assuming today’s Marginal stays the last word.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center Sep 18, 2026 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook (Chalmers/Wendt); Day 2 Convective Outlook; current convective watches (none valid; last issued Watch 669); current mesoscale discussions (none in effect); SPC preliminary storm reports for the 20260918 cycle and 20260917 cycle; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (Campbell, 332 PM EDT Fri Sep 18, 2026); National Hurricane Center Tropical Weather Outlook, September 18, 2026 (no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, eastern Pacific, or central Pacific).

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watch, MD, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay. Morning desk for this calendar day: Storm Updates: Carolinas–Georgia + Iowa Marginal, Upper Mississippi Flood Slight — Friday, September 18, 2026 (Morning).

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

September 18, 2026