Tag: Georgia storms

Storm Updates: Isaias Remnants & Rachel — Oct 10 Morning

Tropical: Post-Tropical Isaias · Severe: Slight + Tornado Watch 679 · Flood: Moderate

What changed

Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias remains near 33.5N 86.9W as of WPC Advisory 17 at 4:00 p.m. CDT Saturday, October 10, 2026, about 5 miles west of Birmingham, Alabama, moving NNE at 15 mph with maximum sustained winds of 30 mph and minimum pressure 1007 mb. NHC has issued its final advisory; WPC continues flood tracking. All tropical warnings discontinued. Position advanced from earlier Saturday near 32.8N 86.8W at 35 mph.
SPC Tornado Watch 679 remains in effect until 8:00 p.m. EDT for portions of eastern Georgia and southern/eastern South Carolina. SPC 2000 UTC Day 1 Outlook (issued 3:00 p.m. CDT) maintains Slight Risk focused on eastern GA into southern and eastern SC for a few tornadoes into this evening, with significant tornado probability along the GA/SC border. Active Tornado Warnings issued this afternoon for Barnwell, Aiken, Burke, and related counties (radar-indicated and observed).
WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 1612 UTC) holds Moderate Risk across the Southern Appalachians (NE GA into Upstate SC and western NC) and portions of Southern California. Upslope totals of 3–5+ inches, locally 6–10 inches, remain the peak concern. Flash Flood Warnings active in portions of the Southeast.
Tropical Storm Rachel as of NHC Advisory 55A around 5:00 p.m. PDT is near 27.4N 116.7W, moving NNE at 30 mph with 65 mph winds and 989 mb. Tropical Storm Watch continues for the Southern California coast from the U.S./Mexico border to the San Diego/Orange County line. Center expected to approach northern Baja this evening.
No new NHC hurricane or storm-surge warnings for U.S. land. Residual Flood Watches, High Wind Warnings, and Wind Advisories persist in the Southeast and Southern Appalachians; Coastal Flood Warning and Flood Watch remain in Southern California.

Live status

As of Saturday afternoon, October 10, 2026, Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias continues north-northeast across central Alabama near Birmingham and is forecast to accelerate northeast into the Tennessee Valley while dissipating. Rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches with localized maxima of 10 inches are possible across the Southern Appalachians from northeast Georgia into the western Carolinas and from the upper coast of South Carolina into eastern North Carolina. Additional 1 to 2 inches are expected across the remainder of the Southeast into northern Florida. Flash, urban, and river flooding remains possible, with considerable impacts including landslides across the Southern Appalachians. Significant river flooding on the western Florida Panhandle will crest today through Sunday.

Tornado Watch 679 is live for eastern Georgia and southern/eastern South Carolina until 8:00 p.m. EDT. SPC notes the risk for a few tornadoes will continue into this evening across parts of eastern Georgia into southern and eastern South Carolina, with the greatest potential near the GA/SC border and conditional support for a strong tornado. Tornado Warnings have been issued this afternoon for radar-indicated and confirmed rotation in counties including Barnwell SC, Aiken SC, and Burke GA. A few severe wind gusts may also occur in parts of the Desert Southwest associated with Rachel interaction.

WPC maintains the Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall on the Southern Appalachians and on portions of Southern California as moisture associated with Rachel is drawn northeastward. Concentrated precipitation is expected later today into tonight as Rachel approaches the northern Baja/Southern California coast. Rainfall of 1 to 3 inches, locally up to 5 inches, is expected in portions of the Southwest this weekend, supporting increasing flash-flood coverage.

Hotspots

Southern Appalachians (northeast Georgia, Upstate South Carolina, western North Carolina): Primary flood hotspot under the WPC Moderate Risk. Strong upslope flow supports 3–5+ inches, with maximum totals of 6–10 inches possible across far western North Carolina into the Upstate of South Carolina. Considerable flash flooding and landslides are possible. High wind warnings remain in elevated terrain.

Eastern Georgia into western and southern South Carolina: SPC Slight Risk plus Tornado Watch 679 for tornadoes and isolated damaging winds. Warm-sector thunderstorms can produce brief tornadoes, especially near the Georgia/South Carolina border this afternoon into evening. Active Tornado Warnings and Flash Flood Warnings remain in effect in portions of the area this afternoon.

Southern California coast and Desert Southwest: Tropical Storm Watch on the San Diego County coastal areas. Moisture from Rachel drives the WPC Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall over portions of Southern California, with increasing flash-flood potential later today into tonight. Marginal severe wind gust risk noted by SPC in parts of the Lower Colorado River Valley into south-central Arizona. Coastal Flood Warning and Flood Watch in effect.

Central Alabama / Florida Panhandle residual: Center of the post-tropical system is near Birmingham. Residual heavy rain and isolated flash flooding continue along the inland track and in leftover banding. Coastal tropical warnings have ended; high wind warnings and wind advisories remain for parts of the Southeast and elevated terrain.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS / WPC level	Status this morning
Southern Appalachians (NE GA / Upstate SC / W NC)	Flash flood, landslides, 3–10 in upslope	WPC Moderate excessive rainfall	Live, ramping today
Eastern GA / western & southern SC	Brief tornadoes, damaging wind, flash flood	SPC Slight + Tornado Watch 679 to 8 p.m. EDT; active Tornado & Flash Flood Warnings	Live watch and warnings, afternoon–evening peak
Southern California coast / Desert Southwest	Heavy rain, flash flood, TS winds possible, coastal flood	WPC Moderate; TS Watch (San Diego County); Coastal Flood Warning / Flood Watch	Increasing tonight
Central AL / FL Panhandle residual	Residual heavy rain, isolated flood, wind gusts	Post-tropical 30 mph near Birmingham; high wind warnings	Ongoing, weakening
Rest of CONUS severe board	No other organized severe	Marginal only in SW; no other watches	Quiet elsewhere

Rising queries

huracán isaias
isaias remnants flood
tornado watch South Carolina
tropical storm Rachel San Diego
southern Appalachians flooding

What this means for restoration teams

The coastal wind and surge ticket from Friday night landfall near Destin is largely closed. Immediate work shifts inland to freshwater extraction and tree/road clearance under residual rain bands and the Southern Appalachians Moderate Risk. Treat any tornado reports in the Georgia–South Carolina Slight Risk and Tornado Watch 679 (including current warnings) as narrow local surveys. On the West Coast, stage for potential flash flooding under the Rachel moisture and Tropical Storm Watch; do not treat San Diego County as a full hurricane landfall. Distinguish residual Florida Panhandle/Alabama freshwater tickets from new Appalachian upslope work and from the separate Southwest pulse.

What this is not

This is not an active hurricane or tropical-storm warning on the Gulf or Atlantic coast. All Storm Surge and Tropical Storm Warnings for Isaias have been discontinued. It is not a plains or Midwest severe outbreak. Rachel is a tropical-storm watch threat for extreme Southern California, not a major hurricane landfall. The organized hazards are the SPC Slight tornado risk and Tornado Watch 679 (with active warnings) in Georgia and South Carolina, the WPC Moderate excessive-rainfall risks in the Southern Appalachians and Southern California, and residual inland flooding from the post-tropical remnants of Isaias.

Looking ahead

Isaias remnants are expected to continue north-northeast into the Tennessee Valley and dissipate on Sunday. SPC Day 2 outlook maintains a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over portions of North Carolina, Virginia, and southeast Maryland for Sunday afternoon and evening. Rachel is forecast to move ashore near the U.S./Mexico border tonight and weaken rapidly over the Southwest on Sunday, likely becoming post-tropical by Sunday morning. Watch the next Storm Tracker update for verification of the Appalachian rainfall totals and any expansion of the California products.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources, dated Saturday, October 10, 2026: NOAA Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Convective Outlook (2000 UTC, Slight Risk eastern Georgia into southern and eastern South Carolina) and Tornado Watch 679; active NWS Tornado Warnings and Flash Flood Warnings in GA/SC; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook and Discussion (Moderate Risk Southern Appalachians and Southern California, updated 1612 UTC); WPC Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias Advisory 17 (4:00 p.m. CDT); National Hurricane Center Tropical Storm Rachel Advisory 55A. Prior desk: Friday evening Isaias landfall near Destin.

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook and local storm reports, WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay, and nhc.noaa.gov for residual Isaias products and the latest Rachel advisory.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

Storm hub: Hurricane Isaias 2026 | Tropical Storm Rachel 2026

October 9, 2026

Storm Updates: Isaias Landfall Destin — Oct 9

Tropical: Hurricane Warning live · Severe: Slight · Flood: High

This is the Friday evening Storm Tracker desk for October 9, 2026. Hurricane Isaias has made landfall near Destin, Florida. The center is now inland over the western Florida Panhandle. Damaging winds and flash-flooding threats are spreading inland. The Storm Prediction Center 0100 UTC Day 1 convective outlook, updated 7:58 p.m. CDT Friday, keeps a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms from parts of the Florida Panhandle into southeast Alabama and southwest Georgia. Tornado Watch 678 is live until 6:00 a.m. EDT Saturday. The Weather Prediction Center holds a High Risk of excessive rainfall from the Florida Big Bend into southern Georgia, with a Moderate Risk nearer the track. Restoration exposure remains wind and surge on the coast, freshwater flooding inland, tornadoes in the eastern bands, and trees on roofs and lines as the circulation moves north.

What changed

Isaias made landfall near Destin, Florida, around 8:30 p.m. CDT as a Category 2 with maximum sustained winds of 105 mph. By the 10:00 p.m. CDT advisory the center was inland near 30.8N 86.5W, about 45 miles east-northeast of Pensacola, with winds down to 90 mph and motion north at 20 mph.
Tornado Watch 677 has been replaced by Tornado Watch 678, issued at 8:50 p.m. EDT and valid until 6:00 a.m. EDT Saturday for portions of the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend and far southern Georgia. A couple of tornadoes remain possible in the outer rain bands.
WPC upgraded the Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook. A High Risk now covers the Florida Big Bend into southern Georgia for a training band capable of 3–6 inches per hour and double-digit totals. A Moderate Risk continues nearer the track from the Panhandle into southern Alabama.
Hurricane Warning remains in effect from the Mississippi/Alabama border to the Bay/Gulf County line in Florida. Storm Surge Warning runs from Dauphin Island, Alabama, to the Suwannee River. Some western portions of earlier warnings have been discontinued as the center moves inland.
SPC Day 1 Slight Risk area is now about 18,129 square miles and 1.1 million people, focused on Tallahassee, Dothan, Valdosta and nearby centers. No other organized severe area exists on the board.

What is live this evening

National Hurricane Center Advisory 14 at 10:00 p.m. CDT Friday places the center of Hurricane Isaias near latitude 30.8 North, longitude 86.5 West, about 45 miles east-northeast of Pensacola and about 65 miles northwest of Panama City. Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles; tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles. Minimum pressure is 982 mb. On the forecast track the center moves across Alabama and into the Tennessee Valley Saturday and Sunday. Continued weakening is expected, but gusty winds will persist well inland through Saturday even after the system becomes post-tropical.

Storm-surge heights if the peak arrives near high tide: 3–5 feet from Dauphin Island, Alabama, to the Aucilla River, Florida; 2–4 feet from the Aucilla River to the Suwannee River and in Mobile Bay. Hurricane conditions, particularly in gusts, are expected through early Saturday within the Hurricane Warning area. Hurricane-force winds are expected to spread inland as far as 100 miles from the coast into southern Alabama. Rainfall of 4–8 inches is forecast from Friday through the weekend across southern Alabama, the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend, and southwest Georgia, with localized totals up to 15 inches in banding, especially the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend. Another 2–5 inches is expected across much of the remainder of the Southeast, locally up to 10 inches toward the southern Appalachians and coastal Carolinas.

SPC’s 0100 UTC Day 1 outlook notes the center of Isaias is currently near the Florida coast. Thunderstorms associated with the hurricane will move inland this evening into the overnight. Rotating cells could be associated with a tornado threat, mainly from the Florida Panhandle northward into southeast Alabama and southwest Georgia. The latest WSR-88D VWPs in the Florida Panhandle show strong low-level shear with large looped hodographs. Tornado Watch 678 covers the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend and far southern Georgia until 6:00 a.m. EDT. Primary threat language is a couple of tornadoes possible.

WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, updated 8:59 p.m. EDT Friday and valid 01Z–12Z Saturday, carries a High Risk from the Florida Big Bend into southern Georgia. Core convection is diminishing, but a training band of deluge is expected to be efficient from roughly 06Z onward east of Apalachicola, with access to 2000+ J/kg CAPE and 25–50 kt shear. Hourly amounts of 3–6 inches and storm totals of 10+ inches are possible if the band trains. A Moderate Risk remains nearer the track from the Panhandle into southern Alabama. Numerous instances of flash flooding are likely, some significant.

Hotspot 1 — Western Florida Panhandle landfall corridor

Destin, Fort Walton Beach, Niceville, Crestview, Pensacola, Gulf Breeze and Navarre sit in the immediate wind and surge corridor. The center crossed the Okaloosa County coast near Destin around 8:30 p.m. CDT. Extreme Wind Warnings and Flash Flood Emergencies were issued earlier in the evening for southern Okaloosa and adjacent counties. Hundreds of thousands of customers are already without power across Florida and Alabama.

Restoration read: coastal tickets are wind plus saltwater inundation. Do not treat this as a daytime roof walk. Stage extraction and board-up outside the surge zone. Inland tickets behind the coast are roof, siding and trees once the wind field arrives. Photograph only if it is safe and the warning allows it.

Hotspot 2 — Eastern Panhandle, Big Bend and southwest Georgia bands

Panama City, Apalachicola, Tallahassee, Cross City, Valdosta and Thomasville sit under Tornado Watch 678 and the WPC High Risk. SPC expects the main tornado threat this evening and overnight with supercells east of the hurricane core interacting with a surface warm front. The training band east of Apalachicola is the rainfall maximum threat.

Restoration read: tornado swaths are narrow. Staff them as local surveys. The water ticket is wider. A training band is wet drywall and a same-night extraction clock if water gets inside. Turn around, don’t drown, on low crossings in the Big Bend and southwest Georgia tonight.

Hotspot 3 — Southeast Alabama and the inland track

Dothan, Ozark and far southeast Alabama remain inside the Slight Risk. Southern Alabama sits in the WPC Moderate excessive-rainfall area. Farther north, central Alabama and the Tennessee Valley are the Saturday wind and water desk as the center tracks inland. Tropical Storm Warnings cover a broad swath of Alabama.

Restoration read: southeast Alabama can take both a tornado and a flood ticket tonight. Central Alabama is more of a Saturday water and tree desk. Do not send the same crew to the Panhandle surge zone and the Dothan band without checking which county has the warning now.

Just hit

SPC’s preliminary local storm report page for the Friday 12 UTC cycle showed limited filtered reports at desk time; hurricane-related wind reports are not decoded into the standard LSR table. Flash Flood Warnings and Flash Flood Emergencies are active across the western Panhandle and southern Alabama. Morning companion for this date: Storm Updates: Isaias Slight Tornado Risk, Gulf Landfall Tonight — Friday, October 9, 2026 (Morning). Storm hub: Hurricane Isaias 2026.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS / WPC level	Status this evening
Western FL Panhandle near Destin / Pensacola	Hurricane wind, surge 3–5 ft, heavy rain	Hurricane Warning; center inland 90 mph	Landfall complete; winds spreading inland
FL Panhandle / Big Bend / far S Georgia	Tornadoes in bands, extreme rain rates	Slight + Tornado Watch 678 to 6 a.m. EDT; WPC High	Live watch and High flood risk
Southern Alabama	Heavy rain, residual wind	WPC Moderate; Tropical Storm Warning inland	Ongoing overnight
Rest of the U.S. severe board	No other organized severe area	No other watches	Quiet

What this means for restoration teams

Tonight’s board is a completed hurricane landfall plus a continuing tornado watch on the east side, not a plains squall line. Hurricane-force wind is roof, structure and long power-outage work near the coast and up to about 100 miles inland into southern Alabama. Surge is a different ticket from rain: saltwater, contents and dry-out on the immediate coast. The High flood risk is freshwater on top of that, especially if the eastern band trains. A tornado, if one occurs inside Watch 678, is a narrow swath for a damage survey.

For teams already in the warning area: finish exterior work and get to shelter. Do not plan an arrival inside the hurricane warning tonight. For teams outside it: stage toward Saturday morning inland of the surge, not toward the beaches after dark. Property owners should follow local evacuation orders, then photograph damage in daylight if it is safe, call the carrier, and start extraction the same day water is inside.

What this is not

This is not a derecho. It is not a Midwest outbreak. Landfall has occurred; the center is inland. It is not a verified multi-tornado outbreak yet; filtered LSRs remain limited. Do not invent a damage path. The hazards that are organized are the Hurricane Warning, the Storm Surge Warning, Tornado Watch 678, the SPC Slight Risk, and the WPC High and Moderate flood risks.

Looking ahead

Saturday remains a tornado day on the east side of the circulation. The SPC Day 2 outlook keeps a Slight Risk from the Florida Big Bend across much of southern and central Georgia into central South Carolina. A few tornadoes are possible from the Florida Panhandle into parts of Georgia and the Carolinas Saturday into Saturday evening. NHC expects continued weakening, with the system likely post-tropical by late Saturday as it moves toward Tennessee and the central Appalachians. Rain and residual wind, not a second Gulf landfall, are the Saturday–Sunday inland story. Watch the next Storm Tracker update rather than treating 6 a.m. EDT as the end of the tornado window.

Rising queries

Google Trends (US, evening of 9 Oct 2026) shows rising interest tied to the landfall: “hurricane storm isaias” (200K+ searches, active), “huracán isaias” (top trending), “tornado watch” variants, “high wind warning” and “Florida Panhandle power outage.”

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources, all dated Friday, October 9, 2026: NOAA Storm Prediction Center 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook (updated 00:58 UTC Oct 10); Tornado Watch 678 (issued 0050 UTC Oct 10, expires 1000 UTC Oct 10); Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 0128 UTC Oct 10); National Hurricane Center Hurricane Isaias Advisory 14 at 10:00 p.m. CDT. Morning desk: Friday, October 9, 2026 morning Storm Updates. Hub: Hurricane Isaias 2026.

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watch and local storm reports, WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay, and nhc.noaa.gov for the latest Isaias advisory.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

October 9, 2026

Storm Updates: West-Central Florida Marginal Tornado — Tuesday, October 6, 2026

This is the Tuesday afternoon Storm Tracker desk for October 6, 2026. The organized severe window is small and coastal, not a plains outbreak. The Storm Prediction Center 2000 UTC Day 1 convective outlook, updated 2:56 p.m. CDT, keeps a Marginal Risk for a brief waterspout or tornado near the west-central Florida Peninsula through tonight. No wind or hail risk areas are drawn. Elsewhere, SPC says severe weather is not forecast. Restoration exposure this afternoon is water first, then a narrow coastal tornado or waterspout chance: saturated Florida ground, urban drainage, and a short-fused spin-up risk that drops off inland from the immediate coast. Trees and hail are not the story on this desk.

The morning desk is here: Storm Updates: Florida Marginal Flood, Quiet Severe Pulse — Tuesday, October 6, 2026 (Morning). The change since that post is the addition of the Marginal tornado area and Mesoscale Discussion 2346. The flood setup was already on the board.

What is live this afternoon

SPC lists no convective watches valid as of 4:13 p.m. CDT (21:13 UTC). The most recently issued watch on the archive page is watch 0676, and it is not in effect. Mesoscale Discussion 2346, issued 2:04 p.m. CDT and valid through 4:00 p.m. CDT, covered the west-central Florida Peninsula. Watch probability was 5 percent. SPC noted a more persistent rotation signature with a small supercell west of Tampa Bay near the differential heating zone and the front, and said the risk of a brief tornado or waterspout moving onshore would drop quickly inland. The 2000 UTC outlook made no change to the Marginal area and pointed readers to that discussion for the near-term risk.

The Marginal area on the 2000 UTC outlook covers about 1,867 square miles and about 1.85 million people. Larger centers named by SPC are St. Petersburg, Clearwater, Largo, Palm Harbor, and Bradenton. The tornado probability is 2 percent. There is no Day 1 damaging-wind probability area and no large-hail probability area. Instability is weak, on the order of 200 to 500 J/kg of mixed-layer CAPE over the warm shelf waters west of Tampa Bay, with poor lapse rates. The morning radar picture was a discontinuous cluster of showers and storms over the northeast Gulf tied to a weak surface low and frontal wave along a front draped across the central peninsula.

The Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, updated 4:21 a.m. EDT and valid 8 a.m. EDT Tuesday through 8 a.m. EDT Wednesday, keeps a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall for much of Florida and far southeastern Georgia. A slow front is sagging from Georgia and Alabama into north Florida. North of it the air is dry and cool. South of it the air is tropical. WPC expects a widespread 1 to 3 inches over much of north Florida, with the flood threat aimed at urban and poor-drainage spots. Soils are saturated from earlier rain. Flat terrain and generally modest rain rates are expected to handle most of it, but training storms can still produce hit-and-miss flash flooding.

The national watches and warnings text product this afternoon does not show a live tornado warning or severe thunderstorm warning on land. An overnight Special Marine Warning from NWS Tallahassee for waterspouts 20 to 60 nautical miles offshore from the Okaloosa-Walton line to Mexico Beach expired at 4:45 a.m. CDT. River and areal flood products are the active ticket book, not a severe-watch board.

Hotspots

West-central Florida coast

Pinellas, Hillsborough shoreline, and northern Manatee are the cities SPC named: St. Petersburg, Clearwater, Largo, Palm Harbor, and Bradenton. The front and the shelf waters west of Tampa Bay are the focus. Restoration read: a brief waterspout or tornado that reaches the immediate coast can put trees on roofs and power lines in a small corridor, then the threat falls off inland. Do not staff this like a watch box. SPC already said a watch is unlikely. Water intrusion from the same showers is the more common call.

North Florida and far southeast Georgia

WPC’s Marginal flood area covers much of Florida and far southeastern Georgia. North Florida is the rainfall core, with 1 to 3 inches expected on saturated ground. NWS Jacksonville still has a river flood warning on the St. Mary’s River at Macclenny, affecting Baker and Nassau counties in Florida and Charlton County in Georgia, in effect until Thursday evening. At 8:45 p.m. EDT Monday the stage was 12.7 feet, flood stage is 12.0 feet, and the forecast crest is 13.0 feet Tuesday evening. Restoration read: low-water extraction, access roads, and timber-land edges, not wind. Turn around, don’t drown still applies on flooded secondary roads.

Florida Panhandle rivers and the Big Bend

NWS Tallahassee issued a flood warning early this morning for Gadsden County, including Quincy, Midway, Havana, Greensboro, and Gretna, after 7 to 11 inches. That warning was timed to expire at 5 a.m. EDT, so it is a just-hit ticket, not a live warning this afternoon. NWS Mobile has a flood warning for the Shoal River near Crestview in Okaloosa County, with minor flooding forecast into late Thursday night. Restoration read: standing water, culverts, and low crossings after the rain has already fallen. This is cleanup and drying, not a new severe corridor.

Just hit

SPC’s preliminary local storm report page for the period starting 7 a.m. CDT today shows no tornado reports, no hail reports, and no wind reports received as of this desk. There is no filtered severe-report map to staff against this afternoon.

The tickets already on the board are water. Gadsden County took 7 to 11 inches before dawn. The St. Mary’s at Macclenny is above flood stage and still rising toward a minor crest. The Shoal River near Crestview is in a flood warning into Thursday night. On the Missouri and Mississippi system, leftover river warnings from earlier rain are still in the text product: the Mississippi River at Louisiana, Missouri, is in a minor flood warning until Wednesday afternoon, and Missouri River points including Chamois and Miami remain in minor flood statements. Those are river-bottom tickets, not a new convective event.

Afternoon pulse

Region	Main threats	SPC/NWS level	Status
West-central Florida coast	Brief waterspout or tornado, heavy rain	SPC Marginal, 2% tornado; MCD 2346, watch unlikely	Live through tonight, inland drop-off
North Florida and far SE Georgia	1–3 inches, urban flooding, river rise	WPC Marginal excessive rain; St. Mary’s flood warning	Live, saturated ground
Florida Panhandle / Big Bend	Standing water after 7–11 inches in Gadsden	Morning flood warning expired; Shoal River warning continues	Just hit, drying and access
Missouri and Mississippi rivers	Minor river flooding	NWS flood warnings, not a severe outlook	Ongoing, falling or near crest
Rest of the CONUS	None organized	No SPC risk, no watches	Quiet

What this means for restoration teams

Treat Florida as a water day with a narrow coastal spin-up rider. Crews in Pinellas and coastal Manatee should know a waterspout can come ashore without a watch. The practical work is still tarps only if a cell actually reaches land, plus extraction where drainage is poor. North Florida and the St. Mary’s basin are the steadier call: saturated soils, poor-drainage streets, and a river that is forecast to crest near 13 feet at Macclenny. Panhandle work in Gadsden and Okaloosa is aftermath. Do not pull plains or Midwest severe boards for this pulse. No hail size is forecast. No damaging-wind probability area is drawn.

Tropical Depression Nine is a planning note, not a today ticket. NHC’s 4 p.m. CDT advisory placed the center near 22.1 N, 95.6 W, about 630 miles southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi River, moving east near 5 mph, with maximum sustained winds near 35 mph. NHC expects a tropical storm by early Wednesday and a hurricane on Thursday, with an approach to the northern Gulf Coast on Friday. That is not a landfall today. Hurricane Rachel, in the eastern Pacific near 20.5 N, 119.5 W and moving west, is not a U.S. land threat.

What this is not

This is not a derecho. This is not a severe-thunderstorm watch. This is not a hurricane on the U.S. coast. SPC did not draw a Slight, Enhanced, or Moderate risk. No tornado warning or severe thunderstorm warning was in the national warning text this afternoon. Do not invent a Gulf landfall for Tuesday. Depression Nine is still in the southwestern Gulf.

Looking ahead one day

The SPC Day 2 convective outlook, issued 12:25 p.m. CDT and valid Wednesday into Wednesday night, has no severe thunderstorm areas. Isolated to scattered storms are possible ahead of a Great Lakes shortwave, across the Florida Peninsula, in south Texas, and from the Four Corners into the central Rockies and central Plains. SPC says no severe threat is expected. The Florida flood risk can linger into Wednesday morning under the current WPC Day 1 window. The tropical system is the item to watch for Friday, not for Wednesday’s severe board. Day 3 also shows no severe areas for Thursday.

Sources

SPC Day 1 convective outlook, 2000 UTC, October 6, 2026: spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
SPC Mesoscale Discussion 2346: spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md2346.html
SPC current watches, no watches valid 21:13 UTC: spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/
SPC today’s storm reports, October 6, 2026: spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/today.html
WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook: wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/ero.php
NWS watches and warnings text: weather.gov
NHC Tropical Depression Nine Advisory 1, 4 p.m. CDT October 6, 2026: nhc.noaa.gov
Morning desk: October 6 morning Storm Updates

Informational only — not an official warning. For warnings and forecasts use weather.gov and spc.noaa.gov. Turn around, don’t drown.

October 6, 2026

Storm Updates: Texas Coast Marginal Flood, Quiet Severe Pulse — Monday, October 5, 2026

This is the Monday afternoon Storm Tracker desk for October 5, 2026. The organized severe window is closed. The Storm Prediction Center 2000 UTC Day 1 convective outlook, updated 2:56 p.m. CDT by Thornton, kept the categorical map at no severe thunderstorm areas through tonight. The 1128 a.m. CDT discussion from Gleason and Chalmers still stands: locally gusty winds are possible with low-topped convection in New England, showers and thunderstorms linger along a slow front from the northern Gulf into southern Georgia and northern Florida, and isolated storms may continue from the Sierra into the Great Basin and the southern and central Rockies. Elevated storms are possible late this afternoon into tonight across parts of the Upper Midwest. Weak instability is the limiter in every one of those regions. Restoration exposure this afternoon is water, not a wind or hail outbreak: ponding on the lower Texas coast, a pulse-heavy rain band from the Florida Panhandle into eastern Georgia, and leftover river stages on the Mississippi.

What is live this afternoon

SPC current watches, updated 2:14 p.m. CDT Monday, list no watches valid. The most recent convective watch on the archive page is watch 0676. No mesoscale discussions are in effect as of the 2:33 p.m. CDT SPC update. Day 1 tornado, wind, and hail probabilistic areas are empty. Today’s SPC local storm report page for the 1200 UTC October 5 through 1159 UTC October 6 window shows no tornado, hail, or wind reports received as of this desk check.

The Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, updated 11:55 a.m. EDT Monday and valid 16 UTC October 5 through 12 UTC October 6, is the product that still has a restoration ticket. WPC and the Brownsville office dropped the Slight risk on the southern lower Texas coast and replaced it with a small Marginal, mainly eastern Cameron County and coastal Willacy County, including Brownsville and South Padre Island. Heaviest rain had been on South Padre Island and the southern tip of Texas. Guidance keeps the best convergent area just offshore overnight, with a few cells able to sneak back onshore. Farther east, a Marginal remains over the Florida Panhandle, northern and central Florida, and eastern Georgia. The front was analyzed along the Florida-Georgia border at 12 UTC, expected to bisect northern Florida later this afternoon. Precipitable water on the 12 UTC Jacksonville sounding was 2.44 inches. Best 2-to-4-inch signature sits between Destin and the Big Bend and inland near and west of Tallahassee, including the Apalachicola National Forest and US 98 towns. Coastal I-95 from Savannah through Jacksonville to St. Augustine is the urban runoff strip.

The national watches-and-warnings text still carries early-morning flash flood warnings that have expired: Coffee and Dale counties in southeastern Alabama until 4:15 a.m. CDT, and northern Barbour County until 2:30 a.m. CDT, with 4 to 6 inches cited in Barbour. Those are last-night tickets, not live polygons. River flood warnings that still matter this afternoon include minor flooding on the Mississippi River at Louisiana, Missouri, in effect until Wednesday morning (stage 15.2 feet at 10 p.m. CDT Sunday, flood stage 15.0), and at Clarksville, Missouri, until Tuesday evening (stage 25.2 feet, flood stage 25.0). No severe thunderstorm warning or tornado warning was the lead product on the national summary at this check.

Hotspots

Lower Texas coast — Cameron and Willacy

Brownsville, South Padre Island, Port Isabel, and coastal Willacy are the tightest flood footprint this afternoon. WPC’s 16Z update, coordinated with the Brownsville office, cut the Slight to a Marginal after radar showed the heaviest rain on the island and the southern tip rather than a broad inland swath. Neighborhood probabilities for more than 3 inches stayed modest, and hourly chances of an inch or more drop after mid-afternoon as the convergent axis slides offshore. Restoration read: isolated street and low-spot water, not a multi-county extraction day. Crews already on a water ticket should finish the wet middle before calling this a new event.

Florida Panhandle into eastern Georgia

Destin, Panama City Beach, Apalachicola, Tallahassee, and the Apalachicola National Forest sit under the best remaining heavy-rain signature, with 2 to 4 inches possible before the ascent lifts out this afternoon. Sandy soils make the forest and US 98 towns hard to flood unless rates exceed about 3 inches an hour. Panama City Beach and Apalachicola proper are the exceptions WPC flagged. Farther east, Savannah, Jacksonville, and St. Augustine have the urban runoff problem: neighborhood probabilities for more than 5 inches of 40 to 60 percent along the Georgia-Florida coast, but low probabilities for a broad 2-inch footprint, which is the signature of pulse storms, not a training line. Restoration read: short windows of ponding on I-95 and poor-drainage lots. Tree and wind claims are not the organized threat. Effective bulk shear under 30 knots and poor lapse rates are why SPC left this out of every severe area.

New England gusts, and the Mississippi river stages

Northern New York into northern New England can still see low-topped showers and a locally gusty wind as the Quebec trough moves east. SPC’s morning and midday discussions both said limited low-level moisture should hinder an organized severe wind threat. That is a roof-and-limb check, not a watch. On the Mississippi, Louisiana and Clarksville remain in minor flood warnings into Tuesday and Wednesday. Edison Avenue past the railroad tracks at Louisiana, and the road to Port Marmac south of Clarksville, are the impact lines already written. Restoration read: access and contents at the river edge, not a convective outbreak.

Just hit

The last 24 hours did not produce a severe-report day. SPC’s filtered and unfiltered pages for today show no tornado, hail, or wind reports. Yesterday’s page, covering 1200 UTC October 3 through 1159 UTC October 4, also listed none. What did hit is water. Overnight flash flood warnings covered Enterprise, Ozark, Fort Rucker, Elba, and New Brockton in Coffee and Dale counties, and Clayton and the US 82 corridor in Barbour County, Alabama, with 1 to 3 inches already down in Coffee and Dale and 4 to 6 inches cited in Barbour before those polygons expired before dawn. A special marine warning early Monday noted a possible waterspout southeast of V Tower on Apalachee Bay. Those are already-ticket items if a call came in overnight. They are not an open warning this afternoon.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC/NWS level	Status
Lower Texas coast	Heavy rain, isolated flash flood	WPC Marginal; no SPC risk	Live, shrinking offshore
Florida Panhandle, N/central FL, E Georgia	Pulse heavy rain, urban ponding	WPC Marginal; general thunder	Live into early afternoon
Southeast Alabama	Overnight flash flood	Expired FFWs before dawn	Just hit, not live
Northern New England	Locally gusty low-topped wind	General thunder, no severe area	Scattered, not organized
Mississippi at Louisiana and Clarksville	Minor river flood	Flood warnings into Tue/Wed	Ongoing river, not storm
Rest of the CONUS	None organized	No watches, no MDs, no LSRs	Quiet

What this means for restoration teams

Do not staff a severe board tonight. There is no watch to stage against and no hail or wind report stack to work. The open work is water: finish overnight Alabama flood calls in Coffee, Dale, and Barbour if they are still wet; keep a small extract-and-dry crew available for Cameron County, Willacy County, and South Padre Island if a cell comes back onshore; and treat Panama City Beach, Apalachicola, Jacksonville, and the Savannah-to-St. Augustine strip as short-fuse ponding, not a line. Mississippi river access at Louisiana and Clarksville is a contents and road problem through midweek. Tree work in New England only if a local gust actually takes a limb. No client names belong on this desk.

What this is not

This is not a derecho, not a severe-thunderstorm outbreak, and not a U.S. landfalling hurricane. Hurricane Rachel, 90 mph and moving west at 8 mph near 20.3N 117.1W as of the 2 p.m. PDT advisory, is an eastern Pacific storm and is not a U.S. land threat. There are no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic. Invest AL92, a trough over the southwestern Gulf of America, has a 60 percent chance of formation in 48 hours and 80 percent in 7 days, with a tropical depression expected around midweek. NHC said it is too early to assign specific impacts to the northern Gulf Coast. It is not a named cyclone on or just off U.S. land this afternoon, so it does not open a named-storm restoration file today.

Looking ahead one day

The SPC 1730 UTC Day 2 outlook, issued 12:30 p.m. CDT Monday by Lyons and valid Tuesday, again has no severe thunderstorm areas. Severe storms are unlikely Tuesday. High pressure and cool northerly flow favor a drier, more stable East. Scattered storms remain possible on the Gulf Coast and into central and southern Florida as the front sags south, with weak lapse rates and shear. Isolated storms are possible over the higher terrain of the Rockies under a weak trough, and isolated storms are possible across the northern Great Lakes late Tuesday under cooler mid-level temperatures. The Gulf disturbance is the item to recheck Tuesday morning, not a reason to invent a landfall today.

Sources

SPC Day 1 convective outlook, 2000 UTC October 5, 2026: spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
SPC current watches: spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/
SPC mesoscale discussions: spc.noaa.gov/products/md/
SPC today’s storm reports: spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/today.html
WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook: wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/ero.php
NWS watches and warnings text: weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php
NHC Atlantic tropical weather outlook, 2 p.m. EDT October 5, 2026, and Hurricane Rachel advisory: nhc.noaa.gov
SPC Day 2 outlook, 1730 UTC October 5, 2026: spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html
Morning desk for this calendar day: Storm Updates: Texas Coast Slight Flood, Quiet Severe Pulse — Monday, October 5, 2026 (Morning)

Informational only — not an official warning. For warnings and local forecasts use weather.gov and spc.noaa.gov. Turn around, don’t drown.

October 5, 2026

Storm Updates: Florida Panhandle Marginal, Texas Coast Moderate Rain — Sunday, October 4, 2026

This is the Sunday afternoon Storm Tracker desk for October 4, 2026. The organized severe window is small and coastal, not a plains outbreak. The Storm Prediction Center 2000 UTC Day 1 convective outlook, updated 2:28 p.m. CDT, kept a Marginal risk across parts of the Florida Panhandle and far southern Alabama and made no changes from the late-morning update. SPC listed no convective watches valid on the current watch page (stamp 1416 UTC) and no mesoscale discussions were in effect on the morning product check. The live problem this afternoon is water. The Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, updated 0738 UTC, carries a Moderate risk of excessive rainfall for portions of the lower Texas coast, with a higher-end flood signal from Mobile Bay east across the Emerald and Forgotten coasts. Restoration exposure today is standing water, street flooding, and saturated roofs and ceilings, not a hail core or a widespread wind field.

What is live this afternoon

SPC’s Marginal area covers about 8,882 square miles and roughly 998,000 people. Larger centers named in the outlook include Pensacola, Panama City, Ferry Pass, Wright, and Brent. The only probabilistic severe risk drawn is a 2 percent tornado contour. No damaging-wind or large-hail areas are forecast. The discussion, carried forward at 20Z by Thornton from the 11:25 a.m. CDT Gleason/Chalmers update, says a nearly stationary front sits across the Southeast with precipitable water above 2 inches south of it. A weak offshore surface low may still form and briefly raise low-level shear near the coast. If that happens, storms can spin up transient circulations, mainly a waterspout or a brief tornado. Poor lapse rates and weak instability are the brake. Recent RAP runs even suggest the low-level wind bump may not arrive.

WPC’s Day 1 excessive-rainfall discussion, written by Weiss at 3:46 a.m. EDT and still the valid Day 1 product this afternoon, is the sharper desk. Precipitable water of 2.25 to 2.5 inches sits above the 99th percentile, warm-cloud depths are deep, and rainfall rates of 2 to 3 inches per hour are in the forecast along the stalled front. From Mobile Bay east to the Florida Panhandle, WPC expects some spots at 3 to 5 inches, locally as much as 8. A small Moderate was considered there and held at a high-end Slight after coordination with the Mobile and Tallahassee offices. On the lower Texas coast, between Brownsville and Corpus Christi, the same discussion raised a targeted Moderate. Repeated onshore cells, rates of 2 to 3 inches per hour, and local maxima above 10 inches are on the table. REFS and HREF showed a greater than 50 percent chance of at least 8 inches. Recent rain of 2 to 4 inches in 12 hours, and up to 8 inches in three days, is already on the ground in parts of that corridor. A separate heavier-rain signal sits on the Georgia coast near Savannah, where flash-flood guidance is locally 1 to 2 inches in three hours after recent saturation.

The National Weather Service short-range discussion at 3:50 p.m. EDT said locally heavy rain continues into Monday for southern Texas and northern Florida. A Flood Watch remains active across northern Florida into southern Georgia through Monday evening, with an additional 2 to 4 inches possible. The New Orleans forecast discussion at 12:50 p.m. CDT kept a Flood Watch through this evening for the eastern half of southeast Louisiana and coastal Mississippi, with another 1 to 3 inches possible east of I-55 and lighter rain west of it. Morning flash-flood warnings for parts of Bay, Walton, and Okaloosa counties had already expired by early afternoon. They are last-24-hour tickets, not live warnings at this writing.

Hotspots

Lower Texas coast: Brownsville to Corpus Christi

This is the Moderate excessive-rain area. Counties in the prior-cycle discussion that still frame the threat include Kenedy, Willacy, and the northeastern edge of Cameron, with the urban question centered on Brownsville, Harlingen, and any cell that drifts into Corpus Christi. Sandy soils can take a lot of rain. Urban streets and poor drainage cannot. Restoration read: water extraction and contents moves if a training band sits on a neighborhood, not a wind or hail claim cycle. Do not treat a Moderate rainfall outlook as a confirmed flash-flood warning for every block.

Florida Panhandle and far southern Alabama

Pensacola, Ferry Pass, Brent, Fort Walton Beach, Destin, and Panama City sit in the Marginal severe area and in the heavier Gulf-coast rain plume. Morning radar-indicated flash flooding was called for southeastern Okaloosa (Wright, Fort Walton Beach, Niceville, Destin) until 9:45 a.m. CDT, and for west-central Bay and southwestern Walton (Santa Rosa Beach, Freeport, Sandestin, Inlet Beach) until 10:45 a.m. CDT. Special marine warnings earlier today flagged waterspout potential south of Destin and along Apalachee Bay. Restoration read: check low-lying commercial pads, beach-corridor retail, and any roof that took repeated cells overnight. A brief coastal circulation is a tree-and-edge-metal check, not a territory-wide wind event. No tornado watch is up.

Southeast Louisiana, coastal Mississippi, and the Georgia coast

East of I-55 in the New Orleans service area, the Flood Watch runs through this evening, with localized flooding still possible on another 1 to 3 inches. Coastal Mississippi zones were included in that same watch. Around Savannah, WPC flagged a two-round setup: sea-breeze storms this afternoon and a possible second round tonight if the Panhandle wave lifts northeast. Restoration read: crawl spaces, flat roofs, and parking-lot drains. This is a Marginal-to-Slight flood problem on already wet ground, not a severe-thunderstorm warning day.

Just hit

The tickets already on the board are water, and they are morning products. National Weather Service Tallahassee, issued by Jacksonville, put a flash-flood warning on west-central Bay and southwestern Walton at 8:38 a.m. EDT after 1 to 3 inches, with another 1 to 2 inches possible. National Weather Service Mobile, issued by New Orleans, warned southeastern Okaloosa at 6:52 a.m. CDT after 2 to 4 inches, with another 1 to 3 possible. Both warnings expired before noon CDT. Waterspout-capable cells were noted on the nearshore Gulf from south of Destin toward Panama City Beach and on Apalachee Bay. No SPC severe-watch number was issued today. The most recent convective watch on the SPC page remains watch 676, and it is not valid. Iowa river flood warnings (Iowa River, South Skunk, Des Moines, Raccoon) are lingering river statements, not a new convective ticket.

Afternoon pulse

Region	Main threats	SPC/NWS level	Status
Florida Panhandle / far south Alabama	Brief tornado or waterspout, heavy rain	SPC Marginal, 2% tornado; WPC high-end Slight flood	Live, no watch
Lower Texas coast	Training rain, urban flooding	WPC Moderate excessive rain	Live through tonight
SE Louisiana / coastal Mississippi	1–3 more inches east of I-55	Flood Watch through this evening	Live, localized
North Florida into south Georgia	Another 2–4 inches into Monday	Flood Watch through Monday evening	Live
Georgia coast near Savannah	Repeating 2–3 in/hr cells	WPC local heavier-rain signal	Conditional
Plains, Midwest, Northeast	Cooler air, no severe	No SPC risk	Quiet
Southern California	Extreme heat, not storms	Extreme Heat Warning into Thursday	Not a storm ticket

What this means for restoration teams

Stage water, not wind. On the lower Texas coast the job is extraction timing: a band can drop several inches in a couple of hours on ground that already took rain yesterday and Friday. On the Panhandle the job is the overlap of a Marginal spin-up risk and a Slight flood risk. Crews in Pensacola, Fort Walton Beach, and Panama City should expect wet ceilings and street closures before they expect shingle loss. Southeast Louisiana and coastal Mississippi are a watch-through-evening problem east of I-55. Savannah is a second-round overnight check, not a dispatch-now severe call. Heat warnings in Southern California and freeze headlines Monday morning in parts of Minnesota and Wisconsin are real, and they are not storm-damage tickets.

What this is not

This is not a Slight or Enhanced severe-thunderstorm day. SPC drew no wind risk and no hail risk. It is not a derecho. It is not a U.S. hurricane landfall. Hurricane Rachel, 105 mph at 2:00 p.m. MST, was near 20.1 N, 114.3 W, moving west at 6 mph, a few hundred miles southwest of the Baja California tip. Hurricane warnings on the Pacific waters off Mexico are offshore marine products, not a U.S. coastal warning. Hurricane Nolo was crossing the International Date Line and leaving NHC responsibility, well west-northwest of Hawaii. The Atlantic has no tropical cyclones this afternoon. A low may form over the southwestern Gulf around midweek, with a 7-day formation chance near 40 percent and a 48-hour chance near 0 percent as of the 2 p.m. EDT outlook. That is not a named storm on U.S. land.

Looking ahead one day

SPC’s 0600 UTC Day 2 outlook, issued 12:21 a.m. CDT, said severe storms are unlikely across the United States on Monday. Moisture and storms stay pinned to the northern Gulf Coast and Florida under a large surface high. WPC’s short-range discussion keeps locally heavy rain going into Monday on southern Texas and northern Florida, and it placed a Slight risk of excessive rainfall on southern Texas for tomorrow. The Flood Watch from northern Florida into southern Georgia runs through Monday evening. The front sags south. The severe window does not open behind it.

Sources

SPC Day 1 convective outlook, 2000 UTC update, 2:28 p.m. CDT October 4, 2026: spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
SPC current watches, no watches valid, page stamp 1416 UTC October 4, 2026: spc.noaa.gov/products/watch
WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, updated 0738 UTC October 4, 2026: wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/ero.php
WPC Short Range Forecast Discussion, 3:50 p.m. EDT October 4, 2026: wpc.ncep.noaa.gov short-range discussion
NWS watches and warnings text summary: weather.gov WWA summary
NWS New Orleans area forecast discussion, 12:50 p.m. CDT October 4, 2026
NHC active cyclones, 2 p.m. EDT Atlantic outlook and Hurricane Rachel advisory, October 4, 2026: nhc.noaa.gov
Morning Storm Tracker for this date: Storm Updates, October 4, 2026 (Morning)

Informational only — not an official warning. Confirm every local product at weather.gov and spc.noaa.gov before a crew rolls. Turn around, don’t drown.

October 4, 2026

Storm Updates: New Mexico Flood Moderate, Utah–Southeast Marginal — Tuesday, September 22, 2026

This is a live Tuesday afternoon snapshot of U.S. local-storm activity as of Tuesday, September 22, 2026. The organized flood desk remains over southern New Mexico. The Storm Prediction Center 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook still holds two Marginal Risk corridors — much of Utah into adjacent Wyoming and Colorado, and a portion of the Southeast that the 20Z update shifted farther south and east into central Georgia and southern Alabama. No convective watches are currently valid. Restoration exposure this afternoon into tonight is water first in southern New Mexico and far west Texas, isolated severe wind and marginally severe hail on the Utah corridor, locally severe gusts plus leftover flood axes in the Southeast and central Appalachians, and tree/wire work already on the board in Lauderdale County, Alabama.

These are county- and ZIP-scale thunderstorms and flood pulses, not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. There is no named tropical cyclone threatening U.S. land this afternoon. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll. Morning desk: Storm Updates September 22, 2026 (Morning).

What is live this afternoon

SPC’s 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook (issued 2:56 p.m. CDT Tuesday, September 22, 2026; Halbert/Lyons; valid 222000Z–231200Z) keeps a Marginal Risk for much of Utah into adjacent Wyoming and Colorado, and across a portion of the Southeast. Summary: isolated severe wind gusts expected today in Utah into southwest Wyoming and western Colorado; thunderstorms capable of strong to locally severe damaging gusts also possible across parts of the Southeast. The 20Z update moved the Southeast Marginal farther south and east into central Georgia and southern Alabama, where storms had already developed in an unstable airmass with steep low-level lapse rates.

No convective watches were currently valid as of the SPC watches page update at 15:56:05 UTC Tuesday, September 22, 2026. Most recent watch on the board: 0674. Check spc.noaa.gov/products/watch before you stage.

WPC’s Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 1553 UTC Tuesday, September 22, 2026; Taylor/Chenard; valid 16Z Tue–12Z Wed) still holds a Moderate Risk across portions of southern New Mexico. WPC notes a potentially significant multi-day flood event over New Mexico and far southwest Texas, with 1–2 inches per hour rain rates this afternoon and training bands tonight. Neighborhood guidance: moderate chance of at least 3 inches (about 40–60 percent) and a low chance of at least 5 inches. Slight Risk axes remain over central to southeast Virginia into South Carolina and West Virginia into southwest Virginia. South Florida stays a WPC Marginal urban-flood desk.

Live warning-scale water this afternoon includes NWS flash-flood warnings for parts of Lincoln/Socorro, Doña Ana/Otero in New Mexico, and Randolph/Webster in West Virginia — already hung as separate Tygart Media warning pulses. NWS also had a flood advisory for west-central Lee County, Alabama (Auburn/Opelika) into late afternoon and a severe thunderstorm warning earlier over Jackson and DeKalb Counties, Alabama.

Hotspot 1 — Southern New Mexico / far west Texas

Still the national flood desk. An upper trough, jet right-entrance dynamics, deep southerly moisture, and precipitable water toward mid/late September record levels support a multi-day event. Afternoon is scattered thunderstorms and flash-flood potential; overnight guidance concentrates a rain shield with heavier cores over southern New Mexico. Sacramento Mountains burn scars remain in the higher-impact language. Flash-flood warnings this afternoon already covered Lincoln, Socorro, Doña Ana, and Otero Counties.

Restoration read: water first, overnight worse than the afternoon pulse. Stage pumps and air movers before the shield organizes. Low-water crossings and burn-scar runoff fail first. Start extraction the same night if water is inside.

Hotspot 2 — Utah into southwest Wyoming and western Colorado

SPC Marginal wind-and-hail corridor is the afternoon convective desk in the West. A potent shortwave over the western Great Basin and a belt of stronger mid-level flow from northern Arizona into central and northern Utah support scattered to numerous storms. Buoyancy stays modest (MLCAPE generally under 1,000 J/kg), but shear and cold mid-levels support organized cells, isolated large hail, and strong gusts off high bases and steep low-level lapse rates. Activity can spill into western Colorado and southwest Wyoming late afternoon into early evening. Larger centers inside the earlier outlook footprint include Salt Lake City, West Valley City, Provo, West Jordan, and Orem.

Restoration read: wind and isolated hail, not a flood CAT. Stage tarps, generators, and tree crews before early evening. Soft-metal roofs and skylights after stronger cores only if it is safe.

Hotspot 3 — Southeast / southern Appalachians

SPC Marginal for the Southeast is a slow-moving cold front into a moist airmass. The 20Z update pulled the risk south and east into central Georgia and southern Alabama, matching storms already on radar. Weak shear keeps the mode multicellular and outflow-dominant; water-loaded downdrafts can still put 50–60 mph gusts on the ground. Today’s preliminary LSRs already show Lauderdale County, Alabama wind damage: power lines down west of Lexington around 1814 UTC, a power pole and lines on a vehicle west of Rogersville around 1835 UTC, and lines down at Lauderdale County High School and the adjacent parking lot around 1856 UTC (NWS Huntsville).

WPC Slight flood axes remain over southeast Virginia into South Carolina and West Virginia into southwest Virginia, where soils are already wet and flash-flood guidance is lower. Randolph and Webster Counties, West Virginia, carried a live flash-flood warning into the evening.

Restoration read: gusty wind and street flooding can share the same ZIP. Alabama tree and wire jobs are already tickets. Charlotte-to-Atlanta language from this morning is not a derecho — treat each county warning as a local pulse.

Just hit

SPC preliminary local storm reports for the 22/1200 UTC–23/1159 UTC window (as of this afternoon hang) show no tornado reports and no hail reports yet. Wind reports on the board are Lauderdale County, Alabama: lines down 3 W Lexington; pole and lines on a vehicle 2 W Rogersville; lines down at Lauderdale County High School in Rogersville. Those are already restoration tickets — trees, wire, and possible vehicle/roof work — not a regional outbreak.

Monday night’s Appalachians–Southeast flash-flood pulse is aftermath. This afternoon’s live water is New Mexico and pockets of West Virginia, plus a Lee County, Alabama flood advisory earlier this afternoon.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / WPC / NWS level	Status this afternoon
Southern NM / far west TX	Flash flood, training rain tonight, burn-scar runoff	WPC Moderate + live FFWs	Live flood desk today–Wed
Utah into SW WY / western CO	Severe wind gusts, isolated large hail	SPC Marginal	Afternoon–early evening
SE / central GA / southern AL	Locally severe damaging gusts, trees/wire	SPC Marginal (shifted S/E at 20Z)	Live; AL LSRs already in
SE VA into SC; WV into SW VA	Flash flood / heavy rain	WPC Slight + WV FFWs	Today into tonight
South Florida	Urban flash flood	WPC Marginal	Local
U.S. mainland tropics	No landfalling tropical cyclone	NHC quiet for mainland	Quiet

What this means for restoration teams

Southern New Mexico is the water CAT if the Moderate risk verifies overnight — extraction, drying, and a 24–48 hour mold clock. Utah’s Marginal corridor is wind and isolated hail. Southeast Marginal wind is already producing Lauderdale County tickets; treat Georgia and Alabama warnings as local, not a derecho. West Virginia water is a second flood desk on already-wet ground. Stage New Mexico before the overnight shield. Start extraction the same night if water is inside. Turn around, don’t drown.

What this is not

This is not a regional derecho and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. Post-tropical Fay is open Atlantic near the Azores and is not a U.S. land threat. Hurricane Polo and Tropical Storm Odalys remain eastern Pacific systems and are not mainland landfall threats today. No convective watches are up. Do not invent a named CAT for Restoration Intel off this pulse.

Looking ahead

SPC’s current Day 2 outlook (Wednesday, September 23) is Marginal Risk as of the 1719 UTC issuance (Dean). Day 3 is currently no severe thunderstorms. That does not cancel tonight’s New Mexico flood problem or this evening’s Utah and Southeast Marginal corridors. Watch the next Storm Tracker update rather than assuming the Moderate rainfall risk is the last line of the week.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources dated Tuesday, September 22, 2026: SPC 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook (Halbert/Lyons, 2:56 p.m. CDT); SPC watches page updated 15:56:05 UTC (no watches valid; last watch 0674); SPC today’s LSRs (Lauderdale County, AL wind); WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook updated 1553 UTC (Taylor/Chenard); NWS flash-flood warnings for Lincoln/Socorro, Doña Ana/Otero, NM and Randolph/Webster, WV; NHC advisories (Fay remnant, Polo, Odalys). Morning desk: September 22, 2026 (Morning).

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watch, and local storm reports, and WPC Day 1 ERO for the flood overlay.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

September 22, 2026

Storm Updates: Kansas–Oklahoma Watch 670 + Midwest–Montana Flood Moderate — Saturday, September 19, 2026

This is a live Saturday afternoon snapshot of U.S. local-storm activity as of Saturday, September 19, 2026. The organized pulse is on the Central Plains cold front. The Storm Prediction Center 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook holds a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of the central Plains and central High Plains, covering about 56,800 square miles and nearly 2 million people in the Slight contour, with Wichita, Topeka, Lawrence, St. Joseph, and Salina inside the risk area. Severe Thunderstorm Watch 670 is in effect from 3:20 p.m. until 11:00 p.m. CDT for central into northeast Kansas, western into north-central Oklahoma, and the eastern Texas Panhandle.

These are county-scale thunderstorms and training rain, not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. Restoration exposure this afternoon and tonight is wind-driven roof and siding work, hail dents on the High Plains, trees on wires in the Southeast leftover cells, and interior water where WPC Moderate flood-risk storms stall over eastern Iowa, northern Illinois, northern Indiana, and southern Montana. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What is live this afternoon

Watch 670, issued 3:20 p.m. CDT Saturday, September 19, 2026, is the live convective watch. Primary threat language is scattered damaging winds with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible, plus isolated large hail to 1.5 inches. The watch box is drawn roughly along and 65 miles either side of a line from 115 miles west-southwest of Alva, Oklahoma, to 35 miles east-southeast of Manhattan, Kansas. SPC Mesoscale Discussion 2309, issued 2:34 p.m. CDT, had already flagged northwest Oklahoma into central and northeast Kansas for watch consideration; that discussion is now overtaken by the watch itself.

The 2000 UTC outlook summary is unchanged from mid-morning: thunderstorms with scattered severe wind gusts and large hail are possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the central Plains. A Marginal Risk still wraps Indianapolis, Columbus, Denver, Kansas City, and Atlanta. Ohio Valley convection has struggled to stay organized along a surging outflow boundary from north of Columbus into southern Illinois and Indiana; SPC trimmed the northern edge of the Marginal there after temperatures behind the outflow fell into the upper 70s.

The Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, updated 1602 UTC Saturday, September 19, 2026, holds a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall in portions of the Midwest — particularly eastern Iowa, northern Illinois, and northern Indiana — and a second Moderate Risk over portions of southern Montana. Guidance cited by WPC includes moderate-to-high probabilities of totals exceeding 5 inches in the better Midwest cores, with some low-end probabilities of 8 inches. Day 2 outlook language eases that to a Slight Risk over parts of the Midwest and Ohio Valley on Sunday.

Hotspot 1 — Central into northeast Kansas, western into north-central Oklahoma, eastern Texas Panhandle

This is the live watch. A cold front is dropping south from southwest Iowa through southwest Kansas and the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles. Ahead of it the airmass is seasonably moist and, by mid-afternoon, moderately unstable. SPC expects a few short-lived supercells early, then high-based storms and line segments capable of 60 to 75 mph gusts. MD 2309 noted temperatures near 100 F from Texas into southern Kansas, dewpoints near 60 F in the eastern Texas Panhandle and mid-60s toward Wichita, and most-probable peak gusts of 65–80 mph with hail of 1.00–1.75 inches.

Cities and counties to watch: Wichita, Topeka, Lawrence, Salina, Manhattan, and St. Joseph on the Missouri side of the Slight contour; Alva and northwest Oklahoma; the eastern Texas Panhandle. A 67 mph gust was already measured 3 miles south-southwest of Freedom in Woodward County, Oklahoma, at 2040 UTC.

Restoration read: wind first, hail second. Stage tarps, generators, and tree crews before dark across the watch. Photograph roofs in remaining daylight only if it is safe. Treat any ZIP that also sits under training rain as a water job by morning.

Hotspot 2 — Eastern Iowa, northern Illinois, northern Indiana flood Moderate

This is the water desk, not the watch. WPC’s 16Z update kept a Moderate Risk of 1-to-6-hour rainfall exceeding flash-flood guidance over eastern Iowa, northern Illinois, and northern Indiana. A surface low over the middle Mississippi Valley and enhanced forcing ahead of it support intense cores and high instantaneous rates. Urban streets, low-water crossings, and small streams fail first. Sunday’s Day 2 ERO drops this corridor to Slight, so tonight into Sunday morning is the higher-end window.

Restoration read: extraction and drying, not hail claims. If a cell trains over the same ZIP for more than an hour, treat it as an occupied-structure water job. Do not send the same crew to the Kansas watch and a Quad Cities flood call without checking which county actually has a warning now.

Hotspot 3 — Central High Plains and southern Montana

SPC holds the Slight Risk west into the central High Plains. Low-level easterly flow is holding upper-50s to low-60s dewpoints. A shortwave moving out of the Great Basin is expected to organize a loosely cellular band into a linear cluster, with hail early and wind later, and some indication the activity continues into western Kansas overnight. Preliminary LSRs already include 1.25-inch hail 5 miles north of Matheson in Elbert County, Colorado, at 2044 UTC, and measured gusts of 59 and 66 mph near Byers in Arapahoe County around 2003–2006 UTC.

Separately, WPC expanded the inherited Moderate excessive-rainfall risk over southern and southeast Montana, matching HREF/RRFS probabilities of rainfall exceeding 3 inches and low-end probabilities over 5 inches. That is a High Plains flood and debris-flow desk in burn scars and small drainages, not the Kansas watch.

Restoration read: Colorado and western Kansas are wind-and-hail tickets tonight. Southern Montana is water and mud. Do not conflate the two.

Just hit

SPC today’s storm reports (1200 UTC September 19 through the afternoon) show no tornadoes as of this desk. Hail: quarter-size near Rome in Floyd County, Georgia, at 1935 UTC; 1.25-inch north of Matheson, Colorado. Wind: trees and power lines down at Signal Mountain and South Pittsburg, Tennessee; trees and blocked roads in Etowah and Jackson Counties, Alabama; multiple trees down near Warm Springs and Highland Park, Georgia; 59–66 mph near Byers, Colorado; 67 mph near Freedom, Oklahoma. Those tree and wire reports are already tickets.

A morning Storm Tracker for this calendar day is already on the site: Storm Updates: Kansas Slight Risk + Midwest–Montana Flood Moderate — Saturday, September 19, 2026 (Morning). This afternoon post is the watch-and-LSR update, not a reprint of Friday.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS level	Status this afternoon
Central / NE Kansas, W / NC Oklahoma, E Texas Panhandle	Damaging wind 60–75 mph, isolated 1.5-inch hail	Slight + Watch 670 to 11 p.m. CDT	Live watch
Eastern Iowa / northern Illinois / northern Indiana	Flash flood, training heavy rain	WPC Moderate excessive rainfall	Tonight into Sunday morning
Southern / southeast Montana	Flash flood, 3–5 inch cores	WPC Moderate excessive rainfall	Today into tonight
Central High Plains / NE Colorado	Wind, marginally severe hail	Slight / Marginal	Live LSRs near Byers and Matheson
Ohio Valley (IN / OH / IL outflow)	Isolated damaging gusts	Marginal, trimmed on north edge	Poorly organized
Southern Appalachians / Southeast	Trees, 50–60 mph wet microbursts	Marginal / local SVR	Just-hit trees in TN, AL, GA
Atlantic vs. U.S. mainland	TD Six near the Azores; no U.S. land threat	No mainland tropical watch	Quiet on the coast

What this means for restoration teams

Wind at 60–75 mph inside Watch 670 is roof, siding, gutter, and tree-on-structure work from Wichita through Topeka and across northwest Oklahoma. Hail to 1.5 inches is a vehicle and roof-dent ticket, not a regional catastrophe. Midwest Moderate flood risk is wet drywall and a 24–48 hour mold clock if occupied structures take water. Southern Montana is the same water problem on different terrain.

For teams in or near Watch 670: stage before 5 p.m. CDT, not after the first warning. Property owners should photograph damage in daylight if it is safe, call the carrier, and start extraction the same night if water is inside. Southeast tree jobs from this afternoon’s Alabama, Georgia, and Tennessee cells are already on the board.

What this is not

This is not a regional derecho and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. Tropical Depression Six is several hundred miles southwest of the Azores with 35 mph winds and no coastal watches for the United States. The work tonight, if it verifies, will be scattered: a wind swath through a Kansas or Oklahoma county, a flooded intersection where Iowa or Illinois cells train, isolated hail on the High Plains, leftover trees in the Tennessee Valley. That is the local-storm pattern this desk should staff.

Looking ahead

Sunday’s SPC Day 2 outlook remains a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the central High Plains and southern Plains. WPC Day 2 excessive rainfall eases the Midwest corridor to Slight. Day 3 convective risk is Marginal. Later in the week WPC language flags a wetter pattern for the Southern High Plains and Rockies, and a frontal system toward the East midweek. Watch the next Storm Tracker rather than assuming Watch 670 is the last line of the weekend.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources dated Saturday, September 19, 2026: NOAA Storm Prediction Center 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook; Severe Thunderstorm Watch 670; Mesoscale Discussion 2309; SPC today’s local storm reports; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook updated 1602 UTC; National Hurricane Center advisories on Tropical Depression Six (Azores, no U.S. land threat). Morning desk on this calendar day: September 19 morning Storm Updates.

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watch, and LSRs, Watch 670 text, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

September 19, 2026

Storm Updates: Carolinas Wind Pulse + Upper Mississippi Flood Slight — Friday, September 18, 2026

This is a live Friday afternoon snapshot of U.S. local-storm activity as of Friday, September 18, 2026. The Storm Prediction Center 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook holds a Marginal Risk of isolated severe thunderstorms from the Carolina Piedmont into northern Georgia, northern Iowa, parts of the central High Plains, and parts of the Intermountain West. No convective watches are valid. Mesoscale discussions referenced in the 2000 UTC package (MCDs 2306 and 2307) are no longer in effect. The Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook is the organized ticket: Slight Risk over portions of the Upper Mississippi Valley and a second Slight Risk over southwest Montana. There is no named tropical cyclone in the Atlantic, eastern Pacific, or central Pacific.

These are county- and ZIP-scale thunderstorms and flash-flood pulses, not a mainland hurricane landfall. Restoration exposure this afternoon is wind and trees already verifying across central North Carolina, isolated hail leftover from Intermountain cells, and water tonight from southeast Minnesota into west-central Wisconsin. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What is live this afternoon

SPC issued the 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook at 0241 PM CDT, valid 182000Z–191200Z. Forecasters Chalmers and Wendt made only minor adjustments from the midday package. Headline: an isolated severe risk continues for portions of the Carolinas into northern Georgia and parts of the Intermountain West. Isolated severe storms are also forecast later today across portions of northern Iowa and parts of the central High Plains. Risk-area population centers listed by SPC include Charlotte, Atlanta, Raleigh, Greensboro, and Durham. Categorical risk is Marginal only. No Slight Risk on Day 1. No tornado probabilities in the 2000 UTC categorical headline. Risk-area size on the 2000 UTC graphic is about 179,316 square miles covering roughly 19.6 million people.

Current convective watches: none. SPC watch page last updated 1805 UTC Friday: no watches currently valid. Most recently issued watch remains Severe Thunderstorm Watch 669, already expired. Do not treat 669 as a live product.

The 2000 UTC discussion points to MCDs 2306 and 2307 for additional information. By late afternoon the live MD list showed no mesoscale discussions currently in effect. Most recently issued discussion on the current-MD page was 2305. Treat those numbers as the latest issued discussions, not standing watches.

WPC Day 1 excessive-rainfall language valid 16Z Friday through 12Z Saturday holds Slight Risk for portions of the Upper Mississippi Valley and southwest Montana. The 16Z update expanded the eastern edge of the Slight and high-end Slight about one to two counties into southeast Wisconsin and northeast Illinois, where recent heavy rain left the ground sensitive. Highest amounts still focus over southeast Minnesota and west-central Wisconsin, with model-consensus QPF in the 2 to 4 inch range. A separate Slight Risk covers southwest Montana. Marginal Risk remains over South Florida and the Keys, a remnant Intermountain/Southwest terrain corridor, a Northern Plains strip, and a thin Ohio Valley pocket. WPC’s short-range discussion already flags a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall Saturday over parts of the Upper Great Lakes into the Middle Mississippi Valley. That is tomorrow’s water upgrade, not today’s Day 1 map.

Hotspot 1 — Carolina Piedmont into northern Georgia

A wavy stationary front this morning ran from southern Illinois through southern Indiana and southern Ohio into southwest Pennsylvania. Decaying showers preceded it from southern Illinois into northern Kentucky. The boundary is shifting south as cooler air follows a shortwave through southern Quebec and the Canadian Maritimes. The front is relatively weak, but it is interacting with a warm, moist, diurnally destabilized airmass across the Carolina Piedmont and northern Georgia. Precipitable water is over 2 inches. Vertical shear is weak. Storm mode is outflow-dominant. The risk is occasionally strong downbursts, not a long-lived supercell corridor.

That language already verified this afternoon. Preliminary LSRs on the 18/1200Z cycle include a 69 mph gust at KGSO (5 ESE Colfax, Guilford County), a 66 mph gust at KFAY (4 ENE Hope Mills, Cumberland County), trees down on I-85 near Route 68, trees blocking roads in Randolph, Davie, Iredell, Rowan, Chatham, and Moore counties, and a power-company outage from downed trees northwest of Craven in Rowan County. Those are trees-on-pavement and trees-on-wires tickets in the Charlotte–Greensboro–Fayetteville corridor, not a watch-scale outbreak.

Restoration read: wind first. Stage tree, tarp, and board-up capacity for the Piedmont counties that already have LSRs. Hail is not the lead threat on this corridor. Water is secondary unless a cell trains over the same ZIP that already took a 2-inch precipitable-water plume.

Hotspot 2 — Upper Mississippi Valley water

A Northern Plains disturbance continues east from the Dakotas across southern Minnesota into Wisconsin tonight. WPC keeps the Slight Risk and high-end Slight focused on southeast Minnesota and west-central Wisconsin, with the eastern edge nudged into southeast Wisconsin and northeast Illinois because those counties already took rain. Local NWS language from La Crosse this afternoon still has 1–3 inches likely and 4–6 inches possible in pockets, with a Flood Watch south of I-94 and rivers such as the Kickapoo at Gays Mills and Viola and the Cedar at Charles City expected to reach minor flood stage if the heavier corridor verifies.

SPC’s northern Iowa Marginal is a separate overlay: elevated storms tonight on warm-air advection and a moderate low-level jet, with isolated hail the primary severe hazard and a strong gust or two if any linear structures develop. That is hail and wind on the southern edge of the water corridor, not a Slight Risk severe day.

Restoration read: water first from southeast Minnesota through west-central Wisconsin into northeast Iowa tonight. Extraction and wet-drywall clocks start the same night if water is inside. Do not send the same crew to a Piedmont tree job and a Kickapoo basement without checking which county has a warning now.

Hotspot 3 — Intermountain West and central High Plains

A shortwave trough continues east into southern Idaho and northern Utah. Highs stay relatively cool — upper 60s in southern Idaho, low to mid 70s in northern Utah — but cold temperatures aloft plus strong deep-layer shear still support organized updrafts. Isolated severe gusts and small hail remain the SPC language. That already verified on today’s LSR cycle: 1.50-inch hail 2 W of Kaysville in Davis County, Utah, and quarter-size hail near Farmington in San Juan County, New Mexico.

On the High Plains, a mid-level vorticity maximum lifting north-northeast later this evening may support isolated severe gusts and a conditional, less-than-5-percent hail risk if a more cellular mode holds into better low-level moisture near the Colorado–Nebraska–Kansas border. Storms may grow upscale into a small eastward-moving cluster this evening. Isolated outflow surges, not a derecho.

Restoration read: hail first if cells verify over the Wasatch Front or the Four Corners. Wind second if High Plains clusters organize. Flash-flood risk on this corridor is Marginal to isolated except for the separate southwest Montana Slight Risk, where WPC introduced Slight coverage after Thursday’s cell behavior and 0.5–1.5 inch guidance.

Just hit

SPC preliminary storm reports for the current 18/1200Z–19/1159Z cycle already include one brief landspout at Lighthouse Point in Broward County, Florida (palm fronds lofted; no damage path described as a supercell tornado), quarter to 1.50-inch hail in San Juan County, New Mexico, and Davis County, Utah, and a long list of North Carolina wind reports from Davie, Guilford, Randolph, Cumberland, Iredell, Rowan, Chatham, and Moore counties, including measured 69 mph at Greensboro and 66 mph at Fayetteville.

The last 24-hour ticket pile on the prior cycle (17/1200Z–18/1159Z) is the Idaho hail outbreak the morning desk already logged: tennis-ball hail (2.50 inches) near Rose in Bingham County, golf-ball hail in Blackfoot and Shelley, quarter to 1.25-inch hail across Bingham, Blaine, Jefferson, and Bear Lake counties, plus 1.50-inch hail at Midway, Wasatch County, Utah, and 1.50-inch hail near Broadwater, Morrill County, Nebraska. Wind on that cycle included power lines down at Lewisville, Jefferson County, Idaho; a 61 mph gust south-southwest of Mud Lake; trees in Beavercreek, Greene County, Ohio; a tree-fall injury in Ashland, Boyd County, Kentucky; and trees in Tippecanoe and Carroll counties, Indiana. A brief tornado touchdown was reported 11 NNE of Chappell in Garden County, Nebraska. Those products are expired. The roofs and cars in Bingham County are still the ticket.

This morning’s Storm Tracker already covered the 1300 UTC outlook family. This afternoon desk updates to the 2000 UTC package, confirms still-zero watches, and adds the live North Carolina LSR cluster and the WPC 16Z flood-edge nudge into southeast Wisconsin and northeast Illinois.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS / WPC level	Status this afternoon
Carolina Piedmont / northern GA	Downburst wind, trees, wires	SPC Marginal	Live — LSRs already in
SE MN / west-central WI / NE IA	Flash flood, 2–4″ swaths	WPC Slight (high-end core)	Tonight’s organized water ticket
Northern Iowa / far southern MN	Isolated hail, isolated gusts	SPC Marginal	Elevated storms tonight
Southern ID / northern UT / Four Corners	Isolated hail and severe gusts	SPC Marginal	Live cells; 1.50″ hail at Kaysville
Central High Plains	Isolated severe gusts	SPC Marginal	Evening cluster if heating holds
Southwest Montana	Flash flood, 0.5–1.5″	WPC Slight	Diurnal terrain cells
South Florida / Keys	Urban flooding, landspout noise	WPC Marginal	Diurnal; one brief landspout LSR
Bingham County ID (overnight)	Tennis-ball to golf-ball hail	LSRs prior cycle	Just-hit
Atlantic / Gulf vs. U.S. mainland	No named cyclone	NHC: no tropical cyclones	Quiet on the mainland coast

What this means for restoration teams

The live ticket this afternoon is wind on the Carolina Piedmont: trees, wires, and a measured 66–69 mph pair at Greensboro and Fayetteville. Isolated Intermountain hail is a roof and auto-glass survey if cells keep firing over the Wasatch Front or Farmington, New Mexico. The organized ticket tonight is still water from southeast Minnesota through west-central Wisconsin. Idaho’s overnight tennis-ball hail around Blackfoot, Rose, and Shelley is a separate just-hit staffing problem from this afternoon’s Piedmont wind.

For teams near the Carolina Marginal: the warnings and LSRs are already out. Photograph damage in daylight if it is safe, call the carrier, and start extraction the same night if water is inside. Turn around, don’t drown on Upper Mississippi and Montana washes.

What this is not

This is not a Slight Risk severe day, not a live convective watch, and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. MCDs 2306 and 2307 are not watches. The Broward landspout is a brief landspout LSR, not a tornado outbreak. NHC reports no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, eastern Pacific, or central Pacific as of this afternoon. The work, if it keeps verifying, will be scattered: a tree swath through a Piedmont county, a hail report on the Wasatch Front, and heavier rain over southeast Minnesota and west-central Wisconsin tonight.

Looking ahead

SPC Day 2 (Saturday) holds a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms late Saturday afternoon and evening from northwest Oklahoma into eastern Kansas, with more isolated severe storms possible across the central High Plains, central Rockies, and the Midwest to Southeast. The 1730 UTC Day 2 summary calls for scattered severe wind and hail-producing storms on the central Plains. WPC already has a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall Saturday over parts of the Upper Great Lakes into the Middle Mississippi Valley. The next Storm Tracker update should re-check the 0100 UTC Day 1 outlook, any new watches, and whether that Moderate flood risk is the morning headline rather than assuming today’s Marginal stays the last word.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center Sep 18, 2026 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook (Chalmers/Wendt); Day 2 Convective Outlook; current convective watches (none valid; last issued Watch 669); current mesoscale discussions (none in effect); SPC preliminary storm reports for the 20260918 cycle and 20260917 cycle; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (Campbell, 332 PM EDT Fri Sep 18, 2026); National Hurricane Center Tropical Weather Outlook, September 18, 2026 (no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, eastern Pacific, or central Pacific).

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watch, MD, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay. Morning desk for this calendar day: Storm Updates: Carolinas–Georgia + Iowa Marginal, Upper Mississippi Flood Slight — Friday, September 18, 2026 (Morning).

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

September 18, 2026

Storm Updates: Kansas–Oklahoma Watch 667, Ohio Valley Flood Pulse — Saturday, September 12, 2026

This is a live Saturday afternoon snapshot of local storm-type events across the United States as of Saturday, September 12, 2026. The organized pulse is on the south-central Plains. The Storm Prediction Center holds a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of the south-central Plains into the Ozarks, and Severe Thunderstorm Watch 667 is in effect from 3:45 p.m. until 10:00 p.m. CDT for portions of southwest Kansas, Oklahoma, and the Texas Panhandle. Farther east, the Weather Prediction Center keeps a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic. Tropical Storm Norbert is over the open eastern Pacific and is not a U.S. land threat.

These are county- and ZIP-scale thunderstorms, not a mainland hurricane landfall. Restoration exposure this afternoon and evening is wind-driven roof and siding work, isolated large hail, trees on service drops, and interior water where cells train over already-wet ground in the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What is live this afternoon

Watch 667 covers southwest Kansas, Oklahoma, and the Texas Panhandle through 10:00 p.m. CDT. Primary threat language from SPC: scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80 mph, plus isolated very large hail to 2 inches. Tornado probability in the watch is low. The 2000 UTC Day 1 outlook, issued 3:00 p.m. CDT Saturday, expanded the Slight Risk southwest across parts of western Oklahoma after satellite showed agitated cumulus and isolated initiation along a remnant outflow. Temperatures of 102–104°F south of the wind shift support severe-caliber downdrafts if clusters organize.

Mesoscale Discussion 2286, issued 2:52 p.m. CDT, flagged southern Kansas into northwest Oklahoma as watch-likely before the watch went up. Most probable peak gusts in that discussion were 65–80 mph; most probable peak hail 1.50–2.50 inches. MD 2287 followed on a severe-potential, watch-possible track as storms tried to fill in.

WPC’s Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, valid 12 UTC Saturday through 12 UTC Sunday, keeps a Slight Risk over the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic. That language is flood first, wind second: 2.0–2.25 inch precipitable water along I-95 from Richmond toward Philadelphia, with a higher-end Slight pocket in the upper Ohio Valley where flash-flood guidance is under 2 inches in northern West Virginia and western Pennsylvania. Central Plains stay Marginal for excessive rain. Florida remains in a localized urban-flood environment on 2.0–2.25 inch precipitable water.

The official SPC Local Storm Report list for the 12 UTC Saturday through 12 UTC Sunday window was still empty as of mid-afternoon, which is expected this early in the convective day. SPC’s same-day report-trend plot on the homepage was already counting preliminary tornado, wind, and hail ticks as storms started to fire. Treat those as unofficial until they land on the LSR page.

Hotspot 1 — Southwest Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas Panhandle

This is the live watch. Storms are expected to increase and intensify near an outflow boundary across Oklahoma and near a front across Kansas and the eastern Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. SPC notes a narrow corridor of 2,000–3,500 J/kg MLCAPE, 30–40 kt of deep-layer shear, and steep mid-level lapse rates that support isolated 2-inch hail before storms cluster. Higher-based convection in the hot mixed layer favors wind over tornadoes.

Cities and counties to watch: Wichita, Hutchinson, and Emporia in Kansas; Enid, Ponca City, and the Oklahoma City metro fringe; Alva to Chandler along the watch axis; Amarillo and the eastern Texas Panhandle. Neighboring offices: Dodge City, Wichita, Norman, Tulsa, Amarillo.

Restoration read: wind and hail first. Stage tarps, generators, and glass/roof crews before dark. A 75–80 mph gust on a well-mixed 104°F afternoon is a tree-and-roof ticket, not a regional catastrophe. Photograph roofs in remaining daylight only if it is safe.

Hotspot 2 — Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic flood pulse

This is the water desk, not the watch desk. WPC holds a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall from the upper Ohio Valley through the Mid-Atlantic. HREF signals in the morning discussion showed moderate-to-high chances of 3-hour and 6-hour flash-flood guidance exceedance in the upper Ohio Valley, and 20–40 percent chances of 3-hour totals over 2 inches from the Richmond area late Saturday into the Delaware Valley and southern New Jersey Saturday night. The Slight Risk was extended north through eastern Pennsylvania, northern New Jersey, and into the New York City metro and lower Long Island for late Saturday night into Sunday.

SPC keeps a Marginal Risk of isolated damaging wind with loosely organized clusters in the upper Ohio Valley this afternoon. That is secondary to the flood overlay.

Cities and counties to watch: Pittsburgh and western Pennsylvania; northern West Virginia; Columbus–Dayton corridor on the wind-marginal fringe; Richmond, Baltimore, Philadelphia, and the I-95 urban core Saturday night.

Restoration read: extraction and drying if cells train. Urban streets, underpasses, and small streams fail first. Do not treat this as the same story as Watch 667. Different hazard, different crew mix.

Hotspot 3 — North Georgia leftover water and Plains scatter

National Weather Service Peachtree City issued multiple Flash Flood Warnings this morning for Cobb, DeKalb, Douglas, Fulton, Carroll, and Paulding counties, including Atlanta, Marietta, Sandy Springs, Douglasville, and Villa Rica. Radar-indicated totals of 1–4 inches were already on the ground in those products, with additional 1–3 inches possible in the warned windows. Some of those warnings expired by mid-afternoon; the water is still in the street and in the buildings. That is already a ticket, not a new watch.

Elsewhere, isolated strong-to-severe cells remain possible on the edges of the Slight Risk into the Ozarks and on the hot High Plains. Florida stays a local urban-flood and lightning desk on deep tropical moisture. A Flash Flood Watch remains up over the Paradise and Hagen burn scar in northeast Oregon and southeast Washington from Saturday afternoon through Sunday evening — debris-flow country, not a CAT event.

Just hit

Friday’s official LSR window (12 UTC September 11 through 12 UTC September 12) is the last closed book. Preliminary reports included a tornado touchdown 7 miles northeast of Artichoke, Minnesota, plus golf-ball hail near Artichoke and Alberta in Stevens County, Minnesota. Wind and hail also hit Tarrant County, Texas (Arlington–Mansfield trees, poles, and up to 1.75-inch hail), Bexar County, Texas (golf-ball hail near Converse and Kirby), and a long tree-down swath through South Carolina, Virginia, and North Carolina. Those are already claims. Today’s new work, if it verifies after 12 UTC Saturday, is Watch 667 wind and hail plus Ohio Valley–Mid-Atlantic water.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS level	Status this afternoon
SW Kansas / Oklahoma / TX Panhandle	Damaging wind to 80 mph, isolated 2-inch hail	Slight + Watch 667 to 10 p.m. CDT	Live watch
Ohio Valley / Mid-Atlantic	Flash flood, training heavy rain, isolated wind	WPC Slight excessive rainfall; SPC Marginal wind	Tonight into Sunday morning
North Georgia metro	Urban flash flood leftover from morning warnings	FFW earlier today	Aftermath / still in street
Ozarks / central Plains fringe	Isolated hail and wind	SPC Marginal	Scattered
NE Oregon / SE Washington burn scar	Flash flood / debris flow	Flash Flood Watch through Sunday evening	Local hydrologic
Atlantic / Gulf vs. U.S. mainland	No landfalling tropical cyclone	Quiet on the mainland coast	Quiet (Norbert open EPAC)

What this means for restoration teams

Wind at 65–80 mph is roof, siding, gutter, and tree-on-structure work. Isolated 2-inch hail is broken glass and pitted panels in a narrow swath, not a statewide event. Heavy rain on the Ohio Valley–Mid-Atlantic Slight Risk is wet drywall and a 24–48 hour mold clock. Atlanta-metro water from this morning is already inside some buildings.

For teams in or near Watch 667: stage before 5 p.m. CDT, not after the first warning. Property owners should photograph damage in daylight if it is safe, call the carrier, and start extraction the same night if water is inside. Do not send the same crew to Oklahoma wind and Pittsburgh water without checking which county actually has a warning now.

What this is not

This is not a regional derecho and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. Tropical Storm Norbert is expected to dissipate east-southeast of Hawaii by midweek and is not a CONUS or Hawaii landfall problem on this desk. The work tonight, if it comes, will be scattered: a wind or hail swath through a Kansas or Oklahoma county, a flooded intersection where Ohio Valley or Mid-Atlantic cells train, leftover urban water in metro Atlanta. That is the local-storm pattern this desk should staff.

Looking ahead

Sunday, SPC Day 2 is a Marginal Risk of strong storms with small to marginally severe hail and locally damaging wind from the Ohio Valley to the Northeast. Coverage is uncertain. Monday, Day 3 adds a small Slight Risk across eastern Nebraska into western Iowa. Watch the next Storm Tracker update rather than assuming Watch 667 is the last line of the weekend.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources, all date-stamped Saturday, September 12, 2026: NOAA Storm Prediction Center 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook; Severe Thunderstorm Watch 667; Mesoscale Discussions 2286 and 2287; SPC today and September 11 Local Storm Reports; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook issued 3:39 a.m. EDT; National Weather Service warning text including Peachtree City flash-flood products; National Hurricane Center public advisory on Tropical Storm Norbert (open eastern Pacific, no U.S. land threat).

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watch, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay. Morning desk for this calendar day: Saturday morning Storm Updates. Related desk: Friday afternoon Storm Updates.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

September 12, 2026