Storm Updates: Florida Marginal Flood, Quiet Severe Pulse — Tuesday, October 6, 2026 (Morning)

This is the Tuesday morning Storm Tracker desk for October 6, 2026. Overnight into this morning the organized severe window stayed closed. The Storm Prediction Center 1300 UTC Day 1 convective outlook, updated 7:45 a.m. CDT by Guyer and Dean and valid 1300 UTC Tuesday through 1200 UTC Wednesday, carries no severe thunderstorm areas. The summary line is short: organized severe thunderstorms are unlikely today. The restoration ticket is water on a sagging Florida front, not a watch box. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What is live this morning

No convective watches are currently valid. SPC’s watch page, updated 13:20 UTC Tuesday, lists none. The most recently issued watch is still Severe Thunderstorm Watch 676. No mesoscale discussion is driving a severe box this morning. SPC’s storm-report page for the new convective day, 1200 UTC Tuesday through 1159 UTC Wednesday, shows no tornado, hail, or wind reports received. The prior convective day, 1200 UTC Monday through 1159 UTC Tuesday, also closed with no tornado, hail, or wind reports.

The only severe note on the Day 1 discussion is the central Florida Peninsula. Showers and some thunderstorms are common early today near a residual front from the northern Gulf to the north-central Peninsula. A weak surface low is expected to develop over the northeast Gulf, and some guidance advertises an increase in low- and mid-level flow late today into tonight. Early wind profiles are otherwise weak. The 12z Tampa Bay sounding is the reference. Shear-optimistic scenarios could support brief, transient rotation offshore. Destabilization inland is questionable: thin CAPE and poor mid-level lapse rates, about 5 to 5.5 C/km. SPC kept that below a probability. The next Day 1 outlook is scheduled by 1630 UTC.

Watches that expired overnight versus what is still live

Nothing convective expired overnight because nothing convective was valid. The 0100 UTC Day 1 outlook, written by Squitieri at 7:47 p.m. CDT Monday, already said organized severe thunderstorms were not forecast through tonight, with showers and thunderstorms continuing from the Gulf Coast into the Florida Peninsula and only isolated lightning possible over the Great Basin, southern Colorado and northern New Mexico, and the Upper Mississippi Valley.

The product that did expire was a flood warning, not a watch. National Weather Service Tallahassee issued a Flood Warning for Gadsden County in the Big Bend at 1:53 a.m. EDT, in effect until 5:00 a.m. EDT. At 1:51 a.m. EDT, Doppler radar indicated light rain remaining, with flooding already occurring. Between 7 and 11 inches had fallen, and another half inch to an inch was possible. Towns named in the polygon included Quincy, Midway, Havana, Greensboro, Gretna, Santa Clara, and Quincy Airport. That warning is off the board this morning.

A Special Marine Warning from Tallahassee at 2:48 a.m. CDT covered waters from the Okaloosa-Walton county line to Mexico Beach, 20 to 60 nautical miles offshore, until 4:45 a.m. CDT. Radar indicated a nearly stationary severe thunderstorm 24 nautical miles southeast of Okaloosa Deep Water Reef, or 29 nautical miles southwest of Panama City Beach, capable of waterspouts and gusts of 34 knots or greater. The text said the storm would remain over mainly open waters. That marine warning has expired. It is not a land tornado report, and SPC logged none.

What is still live is a Flood Watch, not a convective watch. National Weather Service Jacksonville at 1:12 a.m. EDT put a Flood Watch in effect from 10 a.m. EDT this morning through this evening for portions of northeast Florida and southeast Georgia. The Florida zones include coastal and inland Duval, coastal and inland Nassau, coastal and inland Flagler, eastern Clay, eastern Putnam, and coastal and inland St. Johns. Georgia coverage is coastal and inland Camden County. Named cities run from Jacksonville, Fernandina Beach, Yulee, and St. Augustine to Palatka, Palm Coast, Orange Park, Kingsland, and Woodbine. The watch calls for heavy rainbands off the Atlantic and locally 3 to 5 inches through the afternoon and early evening.

Hotspot 1 — Florida and far southeastern Georgia

This is the only excessive-rainfall polygon on the Weather Prediction Center Day 1 map. The outlook was updated 0821 UTC Tuesday, valid 12 UTC Tuesday through 12 UTC Wednesday. Wegman’s discussion at 4:30 a.m. EDT keeps a Marginal Risk for much of Florida and far southeastern Georgia. A very slow front sags south from Georgia and Alabama into north Florida. Dry, cool air sits north of it. A tropical, moisture-rich air mass sits south of it. WPC expects a widespread 1 to 3 inches over much of north Florida, with slow-moving tropical showers and embedded thunderstorms. Soils are saturated from prior days. The risk stays Marginal because the terrain is flat, rainfall rates are limited by marginal instability, and swampy ground should handle most of the rain. The isolated flood threat is aimed at urban and poor-drainage spots. Training cells can still produce more widely scattered flash flooding, hit and miss.

That is a step down from Monday afternoon, when the lower Texas coast still carried a small Marginal after a Slight was dropped, and a Marginal still covered the Florida Panhandle, northern and central Florida, and eastern Georgia. This morning the Texas coast is off the Day 1 excessive-rainfall map. Florida holds the ticket.

Restoration read: Gadsden County is the just-hit water desk. Quincy, Havana, and Midway are the towns named in a warning that expired before dawn, with 7 to 11 inches already indicated. Treat interior water found this morning as last night’s rain. The day work is the Jacksonville Flood Watch corridor if Atlantic rainbands sit on Jacksonville, Fernandina Beach, St. Augustine, or Kingsland. Staff pumps and drying equipment for poor drainage. Do not staff it as wind or hail. A Marginal excessive-rain risk is not a Slight severe risk.

Hotspot 2 — leftover river water, not a new pulse

River products already on the board are not the same as a flash-flood warning. National Weather Service St. Louis at 11:32 p.m. CDT Monday kept minor flooding on the Mississippi River at Louisiana, Missouri, stage 15.1 feet against a 15.0-foot flood stage, in effect until Wednesday afternoon, with a fall below flood stage expected this morning. The Missouri River near Chamois remains under a flood warning until Tuesday evening; the Monday morning stage was 17.0 feet at a 17.0-foot flood stage. National Weather Service Kansas City extended a flood warning for the Missouri River at Miami until Wednesday morning, with a fall below the 18.0-foot flood stage expected late this morning.

National Weather Service Quad Cities at 8:14 p.m. CDT Monday extended several Iowa warnings. The Wapsipinicon River near De Witt was at 12.0 feet against an 11.0-foot flood stage, with moderate flooding occurring and a crest of 12.7 feet forecast early Thursday; that warning runs until Monday afternoon, October 12. The Cedar River near Conesville was at 13.5 feet against 13.0, until late Thursday night. The Iowa River was in minor flood at Oakville, Wapello, and Marengo. National Weather Service Mobile holds a flood warning for the Shoal River near Crestview, in effect from Tuesday evening to late Thursday night, with a forecast rise above the 8.0-foot flood stage this evening to a crest of 8.2 feet early Wednesday. The St. Mary’s River at Macclenny, on the Florida-Georgia line, was at 12.7 feet Monday evening against a 12.0-foot flood stage, with a crest of 13.0 feet expected this evening and a warning until Thursday evening. National Weather Service Key West continues a coastal flood statement for the Florida Keys through Tuesday evening for minor saltwater flooding of low streets at high tide.

Restoration read: these are channel and tide tickets from earlier rain, not this morning’s convective pulse. Iowa river bottoms and the Shoal River rise are separate from the Florida front. Do not fold them into a severe claim.

Quiet severe pulse and the Gulf note

There is no Plains or Midwest severe desk this morning. The overnight outlook had surface high pressure setting in from the Great Lakes to the East Coast as an upper trough ejected into the Atlantic. Isolated thunderstorms were the only non-Florida convective note, and they did not produce logged wind, hail, or tornado reports.

Tropics are not a named U.S. land desk this morning. No named cyclone is threatening the mainland or is on the coast from an overnight landfall. The National Hurricane Center 8:00 a.m. EDT Tropical Weather Outlook says showers and thunderstorms are organizing with a broad low over the southwestern Gulf of America, tagged AL92. A tropical depression is anticipated over the next day or so while it drifts east. Formation chances are 90 percent through 48 hours and 90 percent through 7 days. NHC says the disturbance is expected to turn north or northeast toward the northern Gulf Coast by the end of the week, and that it is too early for specific impacts. Interests from the Florida Panhandle to Louisiana should monitor it. A NOAA Gulfstream flight is scheduled later today and an Air Force reconnaissance flight tomorrow. That is a development note, not a landfall warning and not a named-storm file. The tropical-storm language on the national watch page overnight was an eastern Pacific offshore-Mexico waters forecast, not a Gulf Coast product.

Pulse table

What this means for restoration teams

There is no wind or hail box to stage against. The morning work, if it is already inside a building, is Gadsden County water from a warning that expired before dawn. The day work is extraction timing if rainbands sit on the Jacksonville watch corridor, plus any poor-drainage street in north Florida that does not clear under the Marginal. Photograph standing water only if the road is clear. Turn around, don’t drown.

A Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall on flat, saturated ground is not the same job as a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms. Staff pumps, moisture meters, and drying equipment. Do not staff tarps for a watch that does not exist. River statements in Iowa, on the Missouri and Mississippi, and on the Shoal and St. Mary’s are separate from today’s front. They are slow water already in the channel.

What this is not

This is not a severe outbreak and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. SPC’s categorical map is empty. No convective watch is valid. No preliminary tornado, hail, or wind report is on yesterday’s or today’s SPC log. AL92 is a high-chance disturbance that has not been named and has not put a tropical watch on the northern Gulf Coast. The local-storm pattern this desk should staff is training rain on a sagging Florida front, a just-hit Big Bend flood warning that expired, and leftover river water.

Looking ahead

SPC’s next Day 1 outlook is scheduled by 1630 UTC. WPC’s Day 1 window runs through 12 UTC Wednesday. The front stays the story across Florida. If AL92 becomes a tropical depression and turns toward the northern Gulf Coast later in the week, that becomes a tropical desk only after NHC names it or puts a watch on the coast. Until then it is a development note, not an overnight hit.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook for Tuesday, October 6, 2026, and the current convective watch page (no watches valid, stamp 13:20 UTC); SPC today’s storm reports and yesterday’s storm reports; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, updated 0821 UTC; National Weather Service watch, warning, and advisory text for Tallahassee, Jacksonville, St. Louis, Kansas City, Quad Cities, Mobile, and Key West; National Hurricane Center Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook, 8:00 a.m. EDT Tuesday. Prior desk: Monday afternoon, October 5 — Texas Coast Marginal Flood, Quiet Severe Pulse.

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook and LSRs, and the WPC excessive-rainfall page for the flood overlay.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.