Tropical: None · Severe: Quiet · Flood: Quiet
What Changed
- Compared with this morning’s quiet-pulse-2026-10-18-morning desk: SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook (latest 0100Z / 7:44 PM CDT Sunday, October 18, 2026, valid 190100Z–191200Z) continues NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST. Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. through tonight. No convective watches or Mesoscale Discussions valid.
- WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (issued ~0100 UTC / 8:57 PM EDT Sunday, October 18, 2026, valid 01Z Mon Oct 19–12Z Mon Oct 19) shows the probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance less than 5 percent. Prior Marginal Risk over southeast Florida has dropped off the Day 1 outlook.
- Developing storm-force non-tropical low off the southeast U.S. coast continues. NHC Tropical Weather Outlook gives near 0% chance of subtropical development through 48 hours and ~40% through 7 days. High winds, coastal flooding, and dangerous surf expected along portions of the East Coast. No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America.
- No overnight or daytime local storm reports of severe weather (hail, damaging wind, tornado). Residual coastal and marine products remain. Quiet Pulse holds.
Live Status
As of this Sunday afternoon desk, October 18, 2026 (approximately 8:16 PM PDT / 11:16 PM EDT / 0316Z October 19), the national severe picture remains closed. SPC confirms no severe thunderstorm areas through tonight. An upper-level ridge advances into the southern Appalachians while high pressure stays entrenched from the Gulf Coast states to the Northeast, maintaining dry and cool conditions over much of the continental U.S. Isolated thunderstorms remain possible over south Florida and parts of the Desert Southwest, but no severe threat is forecast.
Water concerns are residual and coastal only. WPC Day 1 probability sits below 5%. River Flood Warnings linger in Florida and Georgia from prior rains. Coastal Flood Warnings and high surf continue along the Outer Banks and adjacent East Coast as the non-tropical low maintains elevated seas and onshore flow. No named tropical cyclone threatens U.S. land. Eastern Pacific Hurricane Trudy remains offshore Mexico with no U.S. impact.
Hotspots
- Outer Banks / coastal North Carolina and Virginia: Coastal Flood Warnings, high surf, and rip current risk persist under the developing non-tropical low. Onshore flow and elevated seas continue; no inland severe or flash-flood threat.
- Southeast Florida residual: Prior Marginal ERO has dropped. Isolated thunderstorms possible but no severe. Residual standing water and urban ponding from earlier rain; river Flood Warnings on St. Johns and Satilla remain.
- Desert Southwest: Isolated thunderstorms possible ahead of a weak upper impulse. Limited moisture and instability preclude severe weather. No flood products active.
Just-Hit
No severe weather reports overnight or today. Preliminary LSRs show marine wind gusts near the Florida Keys and residual flood video in Puerto Rico; nothing convective or severe on the mainland. Prior Mid-Atlantic Slight Risk closed days ago.
Pulse Table
| Lane | Status | Notes (as of ~8:16 PM PDT / 11:16 PM EDT / 0316Z 19 Oct 2026) |
|---|---|---|
| Tropical | None | No named systems threatening U.S. land or Gulf. Non-tropical low off SE coast may acquire subtropical traits (~40% chance later). Pacific Hurricane Trudy offshore Mexico only. No U.S. tropical watches/warnings. |
| Severe | Quiet | SPC Day 1 (0100Z Oct 19): NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST. No watches or MDs valid. Thunder limited to southern FL and Southwest. |
| Flood | Quiet | WPC Day 1 probability <5%. Residual river Flood Warnings (St. Johns near Astor FL, Satilla Atkinson GA). Coastal Flood Warnings NC Outer Banks. No Moderate or higher. |
Restoration Read
Primary residual ticket is coastal: high surf, beach erosion, and minor coastal flooding along the Outer Banks and adjacent Mid-Atlantic under the non-tropical low. Inland water is limited to lingering river Flood Warnings in north Florida and southeast Georgia from earlier rains. No convective severe restoration window is open. Verify county-level Coastal Flood and High Surf products before any coastal deployment. Turn around, don’t drown on any residual flooded roads.
What This Is Not
This is a Quiet Pulse. No SPC Slight or higher severe risk, no WPC Moderate or higher excessive rainfall, and no tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf. The non-tropical low keeps lower-threshold coastal and marine lanes open only.
Looking Ahead One Day
SPC Day 2 (valid Monday) continues no severe thunderstorm areas. WPC Day 2 probability of excessive rainfall remains low. The non-tropical low is expected to meander off the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic coast, maintaining high surf, rip currents, and coastal flooding potential through mid-week. No named storm development is expected in the short term.
Rising Queries
Trends unreachable.
Sources
Morning desk: quiet-pulse-2026-10-18-morning. Official products: SPC Day 1 Outlook (spc.noaa.gov), WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (wpc.ncep.noaa.gov), NWS watches/warnings (weather.gov), NHC Tropical Weather Discussion and Outlook (nhc.noaa.gov). All claims date-stamped to October 18–19, 2026 products.
Disclaimer: This is an informational desk summary of official NWS/SPC/WPC/NHC products. Always confirm with local NWS offices and weather.gov for site-specific decisions. Not a forecast or warning.
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