Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Oct 19 Morning

Tropical: None · Severe: Marginal · Flood: Marginal

What Changed

• Compared with the October 19 afternoon desk (quiet-pulse-2026-10-19-afternoon): SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook (latest 0100Z / 7:52 PM CDT Monday, October 19, 2026, valid 200100Z–201200Z) continues the Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of southeast Arizona and southwest New Mexico. Isolated severe gusts and hail remain possible this evening with a small cluster of storms under 1000–1500 J/kg SBCAPE and ~40 kt shear. No upgrade to Slight or higher. No convective watches issued. Activity expected to weaken with loss of heating overnight.
• WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 0051 UTC Tuesday, October 20, 2026 / ~8:51 PM EDT Monday, valid 01Z–12Z Oct 20) now carries a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall for portions of the Southwest (southeast Arizona and southwest New Mexico). Hourly rates to 0.5–1 inch possible in stronger cells, mainly urban and terrain-sensitive areas. Previously noted probability less than 5 percent on the afternoon desk. No Moderate or higher.
• No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America. NHC continues to monitor AL93, a storm-force non-tropical low a few hundred miles off the southeast coast, with low (20%) chance of subtropical development in 48 hours and medium (40%) in 7 days. High winds, coastal flooding, and dangerous surf persist along portions of the East Coast. Eastern Pacific Tropical Storm Trudy remains offshore Mexico only. Nothing material moved on the tropical lane.
• Mesoscale Discussion 2383 (issued ~3 PM CDT) noted watch unlikely; no Mesoscale Discussions currently in effect. No overnight local storm reports of widespread severe or flash flooding outside residual coastal and river concerns. The Marginal severe window is closing.

Live Status

As of this Monday evening update to the morning desk, October 19, 2026 (approximately 8:12 PM PDT / 11:12 PM EDT / 0312Z October 20), the national picture is a Quiet Pulse. The only open severe lane is the small Marginal Risk over southeast Arizona and southwest New Mexico, where scattered thunderstorms may produce isolated hail to around 1.25 inches and gusty winds for a short time longer this evening before weakening. No Slight Risk, no watches.

Flood lane has a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall over the same Southwest corridor on the Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook. Isolated flash flooding is possible this evening in urban areas, burn scars, box canyons, and dry washes where cells train, but coverage remains limited and no Moderate or higher risk is indicated. Residual river Flood Warnings continue in places such as the St. Johns River near Astor, Florida (moderate stage). Coastal Flood Warnings, High Surf Advisories, and marine Storm/Gale products remain active along portions of the East Coast in association with the offshore non-tropical low. These are coastal and marine, not inland flash-flood events of Moderate or higher intensity.

No named tropical cyclone threatens or has just hit U.S. land. The Atlantic basin has no tropical cyclones. AL93 may briefly acquire subtropical characteristics later this week but is expected to move northeastward away from the coast. Pacific Tropical Storm Trudy is a couple hundred miles west of west-central Mexico and does not threaten the United States.

Pulse Table

Rising Queries

Trends unreachable.

Restoration Read

Quiet Pulse overall. The isolated Marginal severe and excessive rainfall potential in southeast Arizona and southwest New Mexico may produce localized hail, wind, or flash-flood claims this evening, but coverage is limited, no watches support a broader response, and the window is closing with nighttime cooling. Coastal flooding, high surf, and beach erosion along the East Coast (particularly Outer Banks into the Mid-Atlantic) warrant monitoring for overwash and access issues, but these are not inland restoration events. Residual river flooding remains minor and stable. Standard quiet-day posture applies. No widespread severe or higher-end flash flood event is underway. Looking ahead, moisture from Pacific Tropical Storm Trudy is expected to increase flood and isolated severe potential over the Southwest mid-week.

What This Is Not

This is a Quiet Pulse. No SPC Slight or higher severe risk, no WPC Moderate or higher excessive rainfall, and no tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf.

Informational only — not an official warning. This desk is compiled from official NWS, SPC, WPC, and NHC products for situational awareness only. Always verify the latest local forecasts and warnings at weather.gov before making decisions. Turn around, don’t drown.