Storm Updates: Oklahoma Moderate Flood — Oct 14

Tropical: None · Severe: Slight · Flood: Moderate

What Changed

• WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 1601 UTC / 12:01 PM EDT October 14, 2026, valid 16Z 14 Oct–12Z 15 Oct) maintains a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall across portions of Oklahoma into the Red River Valley of Texas. Greatest exceedance probabilities for 3”/5”/8” remain centered on central Oklahoma, including the Oklahoma City metro.
• SPC 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook (issued 0739 AM CDT / 5:39 AM PDT Wednesday, October 14, 2026, valid 141300Z–151200Z) continues a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of the southern Plains and southern High Plains. No category change. No convective watches currently valid as of 1613 UTC.
• Active Flash Flood Warnings continue across central and western Oklahoma (including Oklahoma City metro counties with media-reported 3–6 inches already fallen and additional 1–3 inches possible) and residual areas of southwestern Texas. Flood Watches remain through Thursday afternoon.
• Overnight Severe Thunderstorm Watches 682, 683, and 684 have fully expired. No new mesoscale discussions in effect. Preliminary LSRs from the prior window include large hail to 2.75 inches and wind gusts to 81 mph in West Texas; no tornado reports received today.
• No tropical storm or hurricane watches or warnings on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America. Eastern Pacific Hurricane Simon and Tropical Storm Trudy remain offshore Mexico with no U.S. land threat.

Live Status

As of the Wednesday afternoon desk, October 14, 2026 (approximately 9:20 AM PDT / 11:20 AM CDT / 1620Z), the primary organized threat is the Moderate Risk excessive rainfall over central Oklahoma and the Red River Valley, with multiple rounds of training convection expected under anomalous precipitable water values (including a record October PWAT of 2.23 inches at OUN) and a strengthening low-level jet. SPC Day 1 Slight Risk supports potential for supercells transitioning to bowing segments this afternoon and evening across the southern Plains, with damaging winds, large hail, and a low-probability tornado risk in southwest to south-central Oklahoma. No convective watches are valid. Flash Flood Warnings remain live in parts of Oklahoma and West Texas.

Hotspots

Central Oklahoma / Red River Valley (flood): WPC Moderate Risk. Multi-round training thunderstorms along the outflow boundary and quasi-stationary front. Guidance indicates widespread 3–5 inches possible, with local maxima toward 8 inches. Oklahoma City metro is a focal point with active Flash Flood Warnings and reports of 3–6 inches already. Antecedent conditions relatively dry but record or near-record PWAT values support efficient rainfall rates and flash flooding. Flood Watches through Thursday afternoon.

Southern Plains / southern High Plains (severe): SPC Slight Risk. Daytime heating expected to produce moderate instability (MLCAPE 1000–2000 J/kg) with 40–50 kt effective shear. Initial supercell structures capable of large hail and damaging gusts, with upscale growth into linear bowing segments possible. Isolated tornado risk with discrete warm-sector development this evening, particularly southwest into south-central Oklahoma where low-level profiles veer. Strongest buoyancy in south-central/southeast Oklahoma with mid-70s dewpoints. Outflow boundary placement introduces some uncertainty.

Southwestern Texas / Permian Basin and Big Bend: Residual Flash Flood Warnings and Slight Risk ERO extension. Radar-indicated heavy rain already producing flooding in Brewster, Pecos, and adjacent counties. Additional rounds possible under residual moisture. Secondary to the central Oklahoma focus but still active for extraction and access issues.

Just Hit

Prior convective period produced large hail to 2.75 inches near Matador and McLean, Texas, and measured wind gusts to 81 mph near Turkey, Texas, with additional gusts and tree/power-line damage in western Oklahoma and Kansas. No tornado reports. Overnight and early-morning Flash Flood Warnings reflect the water pulse already underway, with media and radar confirmation of flooding in the Oklahoma City metro and western Oklahoma counties.

Pulse Table

Restoration Read

Water tickets dominate under the Moderate Risk and active Flash Flood Warnings. Extraction, drying, and access work continues in central and western Oklahoma, including the Oklahoma City metro, and residual areas of southwestern Texas. Afternoon severe potential under the SPC Slight Risk adds hail and wind claims if supercells or bowing segments organize. No tropical surge or coastal claims. Standard Plains posture: verify county-level warnings before deploying; do not staff as a hurricane response.

What This Is Not

This is not a Quiet Pulse. SPC Slight Risk and WPC Moderate Risk remain in effect. No U.S. tropical watches or warnings. No named storm hub update required this run.

Looking Ahead One Day

SPC Day 2 outlook carries only a Marginal Risk. The multi-day heavy rain window continues into Thursday under residual moisture and frontal progression. Monitor for any afternoon watch issuance over the Slight Risk area today and for additional Flash Flood Warnings as training develops overnight into Thursday.

Rising queries

Trends unreachable.

Sources

SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook (1300 UTC / 0739 AM CDT October 14, 2026): spc.noaa.gov. SPC Current Watches: spc.noaa.gov/products/watch. WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook: wpc.ncep.noaa.gov. NWS Watches/Warnings: weather.gov. Morning desk: Storm Updates: Oklahoma Moderate Flood — Oct 14 Morning.

Informational only — not an official warning. This is an afternoon desk summary of public National Weather Service, Storm Prediction Center, Weather Prediction Center, and National Hurricane Center products as of approximately 9:20 AM PDT on October 14, 2026. Always confirm with the latest official forecasts.