Storm Updates: Oklahoma Moderate Flood — Oct 14 Morning

Tropical: None · Severe: Slight · Flood: Moderate

What Changed

• WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 1601 UTC / 9:01 AM PDT Wednesday, October 14, 2026, valid 16Z 14 Oct – 12Z 15 Oct) reaffirms the Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall across portions of Oklahoma into the Red River Valley of Texas. No category change from the earlier morning issuance; greatest probabilities remain over central Oklahoma including the Oklahoma City metro.
• NWS Norman has extended a Flash Flood Warning covering Oklahoma County and adjacent counties (eastern Canadian, northwestern Cleveland, southeastern Kingfisher, southwestern Logan) until 1:00 PM CDT / 1800 UTC, with broadcast media reporting widespread flash flooding in the Oklahoma City metro, 3 to 6 inches already fallen, and additional 1 to 3 inches possible. Considerable damage threat noted. This is a clear continuation and local escalation from overnight warnings.
• SPC 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook (issued 0739 AM CDT / 1239 UTC, valid 141300Z–151200Z) holds the Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms across the southern Plains and southern High Plains. No convective watches are currently valid as of 1522 UTC. Overnight Severe Thunderstorm Watches 683 and 684 have long expired.
• Flood Watches remain in effect through Thursday afternoon for much of Oklahoma and adjacent northern Texas. Record or near-record precipitable water values continue to support efficient rainfall rates and multi-round convection.
• No tropical storm or hurricane watches or warnings are in effect for the U.S. coast or Gulf of America. No named tropical cyclone threatens or has just hit U.S. land. Atlantic basin remains quiet.

Pulse Table

SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook

Issued 0739 AM CDT / 1239 UTC 14 October 2026, valid 13Z 14 Oct – 12Z 15 Oct. Categorical Slight Risk covers approximately 73,061 square miles and about 2.9 million people, including Oklahoma City, Norman, Wichita Falls TX, Midland TX, and Lawton OK. A broader Marginal Risk extends from parts of the Ozarks into the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic, where a lower-end wind-damage threat is possible this afternoon and evening.

Early-morning surface observations and radar showed a wavy outflow boundary from southern Illinois across southeast Missouri, northern Arkansas, and eastern/central/southwest Oklahoma into the Texas South Plains. Showers and thunderstorms were ongoing north of this outflow but predominantly south of the primary cold front from the northern Texas Panhandle east-northeastward across northwest and north-central Oklahoma, then northeast through southeast Kansas, central Missouri, and northern Illinois. Southerly low- to mid-level flow is expected to persist, with warm-air advection across the outflow boundary likely maintaining convection from the Texas Panhandle eastward across western and central Oklahoma for much of the day. Southward progression of the outflow is expected to slow this morning, with the boundary eventually returning northward as a warm front later this evening. The cold front is forecast to remain nearly stationary for much of the period.

Uncertainty remains regarding exactly where the outflow boundary will stall and where the best severe potential will focus. Across the southern High Plains, daytime heating is expected to destabilize the airmass east of the stalled outflow, with temperatures potentially reaching the mid-80s amid mid- to upper-60s dewpoints. Moderate buoyancy and effective shear of 40–50 knots will support initial supercell structures capable of large hail and damaging gusts. Upscale growth into one or more linear bowing segments is possible with time, shifting the primary threat toward damaging wind gusts. Farther north from northwest Texas into east-central and southeast Oklahoma, the scenario is more complex. Isolated strong to severe storms are possible along and south of the outflow boundary, with the strongest buoyancy expected across south-central and southeast Oklahoma where mid-70s dewpoints remain in place. Additional strong to severe storms are possible as the outflow retreats northward later this afternoon and evening, and as eastward-progressing linear clusters move into the moist and unstable airmass. A strengthening low-level jet will support a low-probability tornado risk with any more cellular warm-sector development this evening, particularly across southwest into south-central Oklahoma where vertically veering profiles are anticipated. No Severe Thunderstorm or Tornado Watches are currently valid.

WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook

Updated 1601 UTC / 9:01 AM PDT 14 October 2026, valid 16Z Wed Oct 14 – 12Z Thu Oct 15. The Weather Prediction Center maintains a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall across portions of Oklahoma into the Red River Valley of Texas. The greatest probabilities for exceeding the 3-inch, 5-inch, and even 8-inch thresholds remain positioned over central Oklahoma, with the Oklahoma City metro a notable data point. Latest high-resolution guidance indicates widespread areas of additional 3–5 inches of rain with local maxima upwards of 8 inches.

An anomalously moist environment is in place with plentiful Gulf moisture and influence from Pacific systems, producing precipitable water values near or past record levels for October. The 12Z OUN sounding showed 2.23 inches, the highest recorded for the month in the period of record. Overnight and morning storms have already produced areal averages of 3 to 4 inches (locally 6–8 inches) west of Oklahoma City. A brief lull is expected as the low-level jet winds down before renewed heating and jet redevelopment this afternoon and evening. Coordination with the Norman forecast office supports the Moderate Risk from southwestern Oklahoma and the Red River basin through central Oklahoma and into the Tulsa metro. Despite some antecedent drier conditions, the record PWAT environment and repeating axis of convection support locally significant flash-flood potential, especially into the Oklahoma City metro. Flood Watches cover much of Oklahoma and parts of northern Texas through Thursday afternoon.

Active Watches, Warnings, and Reports

As of mid-morning Wednesday, a Flash Flood Warning from NWS Norman remains in effect until 1:00 PM CDT for Oklahoma County and surrounding counties, covering the Oklahoma City metro including western Norman, Edmond, Moore, Midwest City, El Reno, Yukon, and others. Broadcast media reported thunderstorms producing widespread flash flooding, with 3 to 6 inches already fallen and additional 1 to 3 inches possible. The damage threat is considerable. Earlier warnings covered western and southwestern Oklahoma counties with radar-indicated 2 to 7 inches. West Texas flash flood warnings from Midland/Odessa for portions of Brewster, Pecos, and Presidio Counties have largely expired or been short-fused. Flood Watches remain in effect through Thursday afternoon across a broad swath of Oklahoma and northern Texas. Local offices continue to highlight multi-round heavy rain and efficient rainfall processes due to the anomalous moisture. No convective watches are valid. Preliminary overnight local storm reports from the prior period included large hail and wind, but no new tornado reports have been received this morning.

Tropical

The National Hurricane Center reports no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean Sea, or Gulf of America. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected over the next seven days in the Atlantic basin. In the Eastern Pacific, Hurricane Simon remains offshore Mexico with no threat to the United States. No Storm Surge, Tropical Storm, or Hurricane Watches or Warnings are in effect for any U.S. coastline or the Gulf of America. Post-tropical remnants of earlier systems are fully dissipated with no residual coastal impacts.

Rising queries

Trends unreachable.

Informational only — not an official warning. Always consult the latest products from the National Weather Service, Storm Prediction Center, Weather Prediction Center, and National Hurricane Center for official guidance and warnings.