Tag: Storm Damage

Storm Updates: West-Central Florida Marginal Tornado — Tuesday, October 6, 2026

This is the Tuesday afternoon Storm Tracker desk for October 6, 2026. The organized severe window is small and coastal, not a plains outbreak. The Storm Prediction Center 2000 UTC Day 1 convective outlook, updated 2:56 p.m. CDT, keeps a Marginal Risk for a brief waterspout or tornado near the west-central Florida Peninsula through tonight. No wind or hail risk areas are drawn. Elsewhere, SPC says severe weather is not forecast. Restoration exposure this afternoon is water first, then a narrow coastal tornado or waterspout chance: saturated Florida ground, urban drainage, and a short-fused spin-up risk that drops off inland from the immediate coast. Trees and hail are not the story on this desk.

The morning desk is here: Storm Updates: Florida Marginal Flood, Quiet Severe Pulse — Tuesday, October 6, 2026 (Morning). The change since that post is the addition of the Marginal tornado area and Mesoscale Discussion 2346. The flood setup was already on the board.

What is live this afternoon

SPC lists no convective watches valid as of 4:13 p.m. CDT (21:13 UTC). The most recently issued watch on the archive page is watch 0676, and it is not in effect. Mesoscale Discussion 2346, issued 2:04 p.m. CDT and valid through 4:00 p.m. CDT, covered the west-central Florida Peninsula. Watch probability was 5 percent. SPC noted a more persistent rotation signature with a small supercell west of Tampa Bay near the differential heating zone and the front, and said the risk of a brief tornado or waterspout moving onshore would drop quickly inland. The 2000 UTC outlook made no change to the Marginal area and pointed readers to that discussion for the near-term risk.

The Marginal area on the 2000 UTC outlook covers about 1,867 square miles and about 1.85 million people. Larger centers named by SPC are St. Petersburg, Clearwater, Largo, Palm Harbor, and Bradenton. The tornado probability is 2 percent. There is no Day 1 damaging-wind probability area and no large-hail probability area. Instability is weak, on the order of 200 to 500 J/kg of mixed-layer CAPE over the warm shelf waters west of Tampa Bay, with poor lapse rates. The morning radar picture was a discontinuous cluster of showers and storms over the northeast Gulf tied to a weak surface low and frontal wave along a front draped across the central peninsula.

The Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, updated 4:21 a.m. EDT and valid 8 a.m. EDT Tuesday through 8 a.m. EDT Wednesday, keeps a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall for much of Florida and far southeastern Georgia. A slow front is sagging from Georgia and Alabama into north Florida. North of it the air is dry and cool. South of it the air is tropical. WPC expects a widespread 1 to 3 inches over much of north Florida, with the flood threat aimed at urban and poor-drainage spots. Soils are saturated from earlier rain. Flat terrain and generally modest rain rates are expected to handle most of it, but training storms can still produce hit-and-miss flash flooding.

The national watches and warnings text product this afternoon does not show a live tornado warning or severe thunderstorm warning on land. An overnight Special Marine Warning from NWS Tallahassee for waterspouts 20 to 60 nautical miles offshore from the Okaloosa-Walton line to Mexico Beach expired at 4:45 a.m. CDT. River and areal flood products are the active ticket book, not a severe-watch board.

Hotspots

West-central Florida coast

Pinellas, Hillsborough shoreline, and northern Manatee are the cities SPC named: St. Petersburg, Clearwater, Largo, Palm Harbor, and Bradenton. The front and the shelf waters west of Tampa Bay are the focus. Restoration read: a brief waterspout or tornado that reaches the immediate coast can put trees on roofs and power lines in a small corridor, then the threat falls off inland. Do not staff this like a watch box. SPC already said a watch is unlikely. Water intrusion from the same showers is the more common call.

North Florida and far southeast Georgia

WPC’s Marginal flood area covers much of Florida and far southeastern Georgia. North Florida is the rainfall core, with 1 to 3 inches expected on saturated ground. NWS Jacksonville still has a river flood warning on the St. Mary’s River at Macclenny, affecting Baker and Nassau counties in Florida and Charlton County in Georgia, in effect until Thursday evening. At 8:45 p.m. EDT Monday the stage was 12.7 feet, flood stage is 12.0 feet, and the forecast crest is 13.0 feet Tuesday evening. Restoration read: low-water extraction, access roads, and timber-land edges, not wind. Turn around, don’t drown still applies on flooded secondary roads.

Florida Panhandle rivers and the Big Bend

NWS Tallahassee issued a flood warning early this morning for Gadsden County, including Quincy, Midway, Havana, Greensboro, and Gretna, after 7 to 11 inches. That warning was timed to expire at 5 a.m. EDT, so it is a just-hit ticket, not a live warning this afternoon. NWS Mobile has a flood warning for the Shoal River near Crestview in Okaloosa County, with minor flooding forecast into late Thursday night. Restoration read: standing water, culverts, and low crossings after the rain has already fallen. This is cleanup and drying, not a new severe corridor.

Just hit

SPC’s preliminary local storm report page for the period starting 7 a.m. CDT today shows no tornado reports, no hail reports, and no wind reports received as of this desk. There is no filtered severe-report map to staff against this afternoon.

The tickets already on the board are water. Gadsden County took 7 to 11 inches before dawn. The St. Mary’s at Macclenny is above flood stage and still rising toward a minor crest. The Shoal River near Crestview is in a flood warning into Thursday night. On the Missouri and Mississippi system, leftover river warnings from earlier rain are still in the text product: the Mississippi River at Louisiana, Missouri, is in a minor flood warning until Wednesday afternoon, and Missouri River points including Chamois and Miami remain in minor flood statements. Those are river-bottom tickets, not a new convective event.

Afternoon pulse

Region	Main threats	SPC/NWS level	Status
West-central Florida coast	Brief waterspout or tornado, heavy rain	SPC Marginal, 2% tornado; MCD 2346, watch unlikely	Live through tonight, inland drop-off
North Florida and far SE Georgia	1–3 inches, urban flooding, river rise	WPC Marginal excessive rain; St. Mary’s flood warning	Live, saturated ground
Florida Panhandle / Big Bend	Standing water after 7–11 inches in Gadsden	Morning flood warning expired; Shoal River warning continues	Just hit, drying and access
Missouri and Mississippi rivers	Minor river flooding	NWS flood warnings, not a severe outlook	Ongoing, falling or near crest
Rest of the CONUS	None organized	No SPC risk, no watches	Quiet

What this means for restoration teams

Treat Florida as a water day with a narrow coastal spin-up rider. Crews in Pinellas and coastal Manatee should know a waterspout can come ashore without a watch. The practical work is still tarps only if a cell actually reaches land, plus extraction where drainage is poor. North Florida and the St. Mary’s basin are the steadier call: saturated soils, poor-drainage streets, and a river that is forecast to crest near 13 feet at Macclenny. Panhandle work in Gadsden and Okaloosa is aftermath. Do not pull plains or Midwest severe boards for this pulse. No hail size is forecast. No damaging-wind probability area is drawn.

Tropical Depression Nine is a planning note, not a today ticket. NHC’s 4 p.m. CDT advisory placed the center near 22.1 N, 95.6 W, about 630 miles southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi River, moving east near 5 mph, with maximum sustained winds near 35 mph. NHC expects a tropical storm by early Wednesday and a hurricane on Thursday, with an approach to the northern Gulf Coast on Friday. That is not a landfall today. Hurricane Rachel, in the eastern Pacific near 20.5 N, 119.5 W and moving west, is not a U.S. land threat.

What this is not

This is not a derecho. This is not a severe-thunderstorm watch. This is not a hurricane on the U.S. coast. SPC did not draw a Slight, Enhanced, or Moderate risk. No tornado warning or severe thunderstorm warning was in the national warning text this afternoon. Do not invent a Gulf landfall for Tuesday. Depression Nine is still in the southwestern Gulf.

Looking ahead one day

The SPC Day 2 convective outlook, issued 12:25 p.m. CDT and valid Wednesday into Wednesday night, has no severe thunderstorm areas. Isolated to scattered storms are possible ahead of a Great Lakes shortwave, across the Florida Peninsula, in south Texas, and from the Four Corners into the central Rockies and central Plains. SPC says no severe threat is expected. The Florida flood risk can linger into Wednesday morning under the current WPC Day 1 window. The tropical system is the item to watch for Friday, not for Wednesday’s severe board. Day 3 also shows no severe areas for Thursday.

Sources

SPC Day 1 convective outlook, 2000 UTC, October 6, 2026: spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
SPC Mesoscale Discussion 2346: spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md2346.html
SPC current watches, no watches valid 21:13 UTC: spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/
SPC today’s storm reports, October 6, 2026: spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/today.html
WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook: wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/ero.php
NWS watches and warnings text: weather.gov
NHC Tropical Depression Nine Advisory 1, 4 p.m. CDT October 6, 2026: nhc.noaa.gov
Morning desk: October 6 morning Storm Updates

Informational only — not an official warning. For warnings and forecasts use weather.gov and spc.noaa.gov. Turn around, don’t drown.

October 6, 2026

Storm Updates: Florida Marginal Flood, Quiet Severe Pulse — Tuesday, October 6, 2026 (Morning)

This is the Tuesday morning Storm Tracker desk for October 6, 2026. Overnight into this morning the organized severe window stayed closed. The Storm Prediction Center 1300 UTC Day 1 convective outlook, updated 7:45 a.m. CDT by Guyer and Dean and valid 1300 UTC Tuesday through 1200 UTC Wednesday, carries no severe thunderstorm areas. The summary line is short: organized severe thunderstorms are unlikely today. The restoration ticket is water on a sagging Florida front, not a watch box. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What is live this morning

No convective watches are currently valid. SPC’s watch page, updated 13:20 UTC Tuesday, lists none. The most recently issued watch is still Severe Thunderstorm Watch 676. No mesoscale discussion is driving a severe box this morning. SPC’s storm-report page for the new convective day, 1200 UTC Tuesday through 1159 UTC Wednesday, shows no tornado, hail, or wind reports received. The prior convective day, 1200 UTC Monday through 1159 UTC Tuesday, also closed with no tornado, hail, or wind reports.

The only severe note on the Day 1 discussion is the central Florida Peninsula. Showers and some thunderstorms are common early today near a residual front from the northern Gulf to the north-central Peninsula. A weak surface low is expected to develop over the northeast Gulf, and some guidance advertises an increase in low- and mid-level flow late today into tonight. Early wind profiles are otherwise weak. The 12z Tampa Bay sounding is the reference. Shear-optimistic scenarios could support brief, transient rotation offshore. Destabilization inland is questionable: thin CAPE and poor mid-level lapse rates, about 5 to 5.5 C/km. SPC kept that below a probability. The next Day 1 outlook is scheduled by 1630 UTC.

Watches that expired overnight versus what is still live

Nothing convective expired overnight because nothing convective was valid. The 0100 UTC Day 1 outlook, written by Squitieri at 7:47 p.m. CDT Monday, already said organized severe thunderstorms were not forecast through tonight, with showers and thunderstorms continuing from the Gulf Coast into the Florida Peninsula and only isolated lightning possible over the Great Basin, southern Colorado and northern New Mexico, and the Upper Mississippi Valley.

The product that did expire was a flood warning, not a watch. National Weather Service Tallahassee issued a Flood Warning for Gadsden County in the Big Bend at 1:53 a.m. EDT, in effect until 5:00 a.m. EDT. At 1:51 a.m. EDT, Doppler radar indicated light rain remaining, with flooding already occurring. Between 7 and 11 inches had fallen, and another half inch to an inch was possible. Towns named in the polygon included Quincy, Midway, Havana, Greensboro, Gretna, Santa Clara, and Quincy Airport. That warning is off the board this morning.

A Special Marine Warning from Tallahassee at 2:48 a.m. CDT covered waters from the Okaloosa-Walton county line to Mexico Beach, 20 to 60 nautical miles offshore, until 4:45 a.m. CDT. Radar indicated a nearly stationary severe thunderstorm 24 nautical miles southeast of Okaloosa Deep Water Reef, or 29 nautical miles southwest of Panama City Beach, capable of waterspouts and gusts of 34 knots or greater. The text said the storm would remain over mainly open waters. That marine warning has expired. It is not a land tornado report, and SPC logged none.

What is still live is a Flood Watch, not a convective watch. National Weather Service Jacksonville at 1:12 a.m. EDT put a Flood Watch in effect from 10 a.m. EDT this morning through this evening for portions of northeast Florida and southeast Georgia. The Florida zones include coastal and inland Duval, coastal and inland Nassau, coastal and inland Flagler, eastern Clay, eastern Putnam, and coastal and inland St. Johns. Georgia coverage is coastal and inland Camden County. Named cities run from Jacksonville, Fernandina Beach, Yulee, and St. Augustine to Palatka, Palm Coast, Orange Park, Kingsland, and Woodbine. The watch calls for heavy rainbands off the Atlantic and locally 3 to 5 inches through the afternoon and early evening.

Hotspot 1 — Florida and far southeastern Georgia

This is the only excessive-rainfall polygon on the Weather Prediction Center Day 1 map. The outlook was updated 0821 UTC Tuesday, valid 12 UTC Tuesday through 12 UTC Wednesday. Wegman’s discussion at 4:30 a.m. EDT keeps a Marginal Risk for much of Florida and far southeastern Georgia. A very slow front sags south from Georgia and Alabama into north Florida. Dry, cool air sits north of it. A tropical, moisture-rich air mass sits south of it. WPC expects a widespread 1 to 3 inches over much of north Florida, with slow-moving tropical showers and embedded thunderstorms. Soils are saturated from prior days. The risk stays Marginal because the terrain is flat, rainfall rates are limited by marginal instability, and swampy ground should handle most of the rain. The isolated flood threat is aimed at urban and poor-drainage spots. Training cells can still produce more widely scattered flash flooding, hit and miss.

That is a step down from Monday afternoon, when the lower Texas coast still carried a small Marginal after a Slight was dropped, and a Marginal still covered the Florida Panhandle, northern and central Florida, and eastern Georgia. This morning the Texas coast is off the Day 1 excessive-rainfall map. Florida holds the ticket.

Restoration read: Gadsden County is the just-hit water desk. Quincy, Havana, and Midway are the towns named in a warning that expired before dawn, with 7 to 11 inches already indicated. Treat interior water found this morning as last night’s rain. The day work is the Jacksonville Flood Watch corridor if Atlantic rainbands sit on Jacksonville, Fernandina Beach, St. Augustine, or Kingsland. Staff pumps and drying equipment for poor drainage. Do not staff it as wind or hail. A Marginal excessive-rain risk is not a Slight severe risk.

Hotspot 2 — leftover river water, not a new pulse

River products already on the board are not the same as a flash-flood warning. National Weather Service St. Louis at 11:32 p.m. CDT Monday kept minor flooding on the Mississippi River at Louisiana, Missouri, stage 15.1 feet against a 15.0-foot flood stage, in effect until Wednesday afternoon, with a fall below flood stage expected this morning. The Missouri River near Chamois remains under a flood warning until Tuesday evening; the Monday morning stage was 17.0 feet at a 17.0-foot flood stage. National Weather Service Kansas City extended a flood warning for the Missouri River at Miami until Wednesday morning, with a fall below the 18.0-foot flood stage expected late this morning.

National Weather Service Quad Cities at 8:14 p.m. CDT Monday extended several Iowa warnings. The Wapsipinicon River near De Witt was at 12.0 feet against an 11.0-foot flood stage, with moderate flooding occurring and a crest of 12.7 feet forecast early Thursday; that warning runs until Monday afternoon, October 12. The Cedar River near Conesville was at 13.5 feet against 13.0, until late Thursday night. The Iowa River was in minor flood at Oakville, Wapello, and Marengo. National Weather Service Mobile holds a flood warning for the Shoal River near Crestview, in effect from Tuesday evening to late Thursday night, with a forecast rise above the 8.0-foot flood stage this evening to a crest of 8.2 feet early Wednesday. The St. Mary’s River at Macclenny, on the Florida-Georgia line, was at 12.7 feet Monday evening against a 12.0-foot flood stage, with a crest of 13.0 feet expected this evening and a warning until Thursday evening. National Weather Service Key West continues a coastal flood statement for the Florida Keys through Tuesday evening for minor saltwater flooding of low streets at high tide.

Restoration read: these are channel and tide tickets from earlier rain, not this morning’s convective pulse. Iowa river bottoms and the Shoal River rise are separate from the Florida front. Do not fold them into a severe claim.

Quiet severe pulse and the Gulf note

There is no Plains or Midwest severe desk this morning. The overnight outlook had surface high pressure setting in from the Great Lakes to the East Coast as an upper trough ejected into the Atlantic. Isolated thunderstorms were the only non-Florida convective note, and they did not produce logged wind, hail, or tornado reports.

Tropics are not a named U.S. land desk this morning. No named cyclone is threatening the mainland or is on the coast from an overnight landfall. The National Hurricane Center 8:00 a.m. EDT Tropical Weather Outlook says showers and thunderstorms are organizing with a broad low over the southwestern Gulf of America, tagged AL92. A tropical depression is anticipated over the next day or so while it drifts east. Formation chances are 90 percent through 48 hours and 90 percent through 7 days. NHC says the disturbance is expected to turn north or northeast toward the northern Gulf Coast by the end of the week, and that it is too early for specific impacts. Interests from the Florida Panhandle to Louisiana should monitor it. A NOAA Gulfstream flight is scheduled later today and an Air Force reconnaissance flight tomorrow. That is a development note, not a landfall warning and not a named-storm file. The tropical-storm language on the national watch page overnight was an eastern Pacific offshore-Mexico waters forecast, not a Gulf Coast product.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / WPC / NWS level	Status this morning
North Florida / far SE Georgia	Training rain, urban flood	WPC Marginal; no SPC severe area	Live; 1–3 inches, locally more
NE Florida / Camden County GA	Atlantic rainbands	JAX Flood Watch 10 a.m.–evening EDT	Live; locally 3–5 inches
Gadsden County FL (Quincy, Havana)	Just-hit flood	Warning expired 5 a.m. EDT	Aftermath; 7–11 inches indicated
Offshore Panama City Beach	Waterspout, marine gusts	Special Marine Warning expired 4:45 a.m. CDT	Open water; no land LSR
Central Florida Peninsula	Storms on residual front	No severe probability	Rotation threat kept offshore
Iowa rivers (Wapsipinicon, Cedar, Iowa)	Minor to moderate river flood	Flood warnings into late week	In channel, not a new pulse
Mississippi at Louisiana MO; Missouri River	Minor river flood	Flood warnings	Near or falling through flood stage
Shoal River near Crestview; St. Mary’s at Macclenny	River rise	Flood warnings	Crests tonight into Wednesday
Florida Keys	Minor saltwater flooding	Coastal flood statement through evening	High-tide streets
Southwestern Gulf (AL92)	Possible tropical depression	NHC 90% / 90%; not named	Monitor; not a land file yet

What this means for restoration teams

There is no wind or hail box to stage against. The morning work, if it is already inside a building, is Gadsden County water from a warning that expired before dawn. The day work is extraction timing if rainbands sit on the Jacksonville watch corridor, plus any poor-drainage street in north Florida that does not clear under the Marginal. Photograph standing water only if the road is clear. Turn around, don’t drown.

A Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall on flat, saturated ground is not the same job as a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms. Staff pumps, moisture meters, and drying equipment. Do not staff tarps for a watch that does not exist. River statements in Iowa, on the Missouri and Mississippi, and on the Shoal and St. Mary’s are separate from today’s front. They are slow water already in the channel.

What this is not

This is not a severe outbreak and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. SPC’s categorical map is empty. No convective watch is valid. No preliminary tornado, hail, or wind report is on yesterday’s or today’s SPC log. AL92 is a high-chance disturbance that has not been named and has not put a tropical watch on the northern Gulf Coast. The local-storm pattern this desk should staff is training rain on a sagging Florida front, a just-hit Big Bend flood warning that expired, and leftover river water.

Looking ahead

SPC’s next Day 1 outlook is scheduled by 1630 UTC. WPC’s Day 1 window runs through 12 UTC Wednesday. The front stays the story across Florida. If AL92 becomes a tropical depression and turns toward the northern Gulf Coast later in the week, that becomes a tropical desk only after NHC names it or puts a watch on the coast. Until then it is a development note, not an overnight hit.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook for Tuesday, October 6, 2026, and the current convective watch page (no watches valid, stamp 13:20 UTC); SPC today’s storm reports and yesterday’s storm reports; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, updated 0821 UTC; National Weather Service watch, warning, and advisory text for Tallahassee, Jacksonville, St. Louis, Kansas City, Quad Cities, Mobile, and Key West; National Hurricane Center Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook, 8:00 a.m. EDT Tuesday. Prior desk: Monday afternoon, October 5 — Texas Coast Marginal Flood, Quiet Severe Pulse.

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook and LSRs, and the WPC excessive-rainfall page for the flood overlay.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

October 6, 2026

Storm Updates: Texas Coast Marginal Flood, Quiet Severe Pulse — Monday, October 5, 2026

This is the Monday afternoon Storm Tracker desk for October 5, 2026. The organized severe window is closed. The Storm Prediction Center 2000 UTC Day 1 convective outlook, updated 2:56 p.m. CDT by Thornton, kept the categorical map at no severe thunderstorm areas through tonight. The 1128 a.m. CDT discussion from Gleason and Chalmers still stands: locally gusty winds are possible with low-topped convection in New England, showers and thunderstorms linger along a slow front from the northern Gulf into southern Georgia and northern Florida, and isolated storms may continue from the Sierra into the Great Basin and the southern and central Rockies. Elevated storms are possible late this afternoon into tonight across parts of the Upper Midwest. Weak instability is the limiter in every one of those regions. Restoration exposure this afternoon is water, not a wind or hail outbreak: ponding on the lower Texas coast, a pulse-heavy rain band from the Florida Panhandle into eastern Georgia, and leftover river stages on the Mississippi.

What is live this afternoon

SPC current watches, updated 2:14 p.m. CDT Monday, list no watches valid. The most recent convective watch on the archive page is watch 0676. No mesoscale discussions are in effect as of the 2:33 p.m. CDT SPC update. Day 1 tornado, wind, and hail probabilistic areas are empty. Today’s SPC local storm report page for the 1200 UTC October 5 through 1159 UTC October 6 window shows no tornado, hail, or wind reports received as of this desk check.

The Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, updated 11:55 a.m. EDT Monday and valid 16 UTC October 5 through 12 UTC October 6, is the product that still has a restoration ticket. WPC and the Brownsville office dropped the Slight risk on the southern lower Texas coast and replaced it with a small Marginal, mainly eastern Cameron County and coastal Willacy County, including Brownsville and South Padre Island. Heaviest rain had been on South Padre Island and the southern tip of Texas. Guidance keeps the best convergent area just offshore overnight, with a few cells able to sneak back onshore. Farther east, a Marginal remains over the Florida Panhandle, northern and central Florida, and eastern Georgia. The front was analyzed along the Florida-Georgia border at 12 UTC, expected to bisect northern Florida later this afternoon. Precipitable water on the 12 UTC Jacksonville sounding was 2.44 inches. Best 2-to-4-inch signature sits between Destin and the Big Bend and inland near and west of Tallahassee, including the Apalachicola National Forest and US 98 towns. Coastal I-95 from Savannah through Jacksonville to St. Augustine is the urban runoff strip.

The national watches-and-warnings text still carries early-morning flash flood warnings that have expired: Coffee and Dale counties in southeastern Alabama until 4:15 a.m. CDT, and northern Barbour County until 2:30 a.m. CDT, with 4 to 6 inches cited in Barbour. Those are last-night tickets, not live polygons. River flood warnings that still matter this afternoon include minor flooding on the Mississippi River at Louisiana, Missouri, in effect until Wednesday morning (stage 15.2 feet at 10 p.m. CDT Sunday, flood stage 15.0), and at Clarksville, Missouri, until Tuesday evening (stage 25.2 feet, flood stage 25.0). No severe thunderstorm warning or tornado warning was the lead product on the national summary at this check.

Hotspots

Lower Texas coast — Cameron and Willacy

Brownsville, South Padre Island, Port Isabel, and coastal Willacy are the tightest flood footprint this afternoon. WPC’s 16Z update, coordinated with the Brownsville office, cut the Slight to a Marginal after radar showed the heaviest rain on the island and the southern tip rather than a broad inland swath. Neighborhood probabilities for more than 3 inches stayed modest, and hourly chances of an inch or more drop after mid-afternoon as the convergent axis slides offshore. Restoration read: isolated street and low-spot water, not a multi-county extraction day. Crews already on a water ticket should finish the wet middle before calling this a new event.

Florida Panhandle into eastern Georgia

Destin, Panama City Beach, Apalachicola, Tallahassee, and the Apalachicola National Forest sit under the best remaining heavy-rain signature, with 2 to 4 inches possible before the ascent lifts out this afternoon. Sandy soils make the forest and US 98 towns hard to flood unless rates exceed about 3 inches an hour. Panama City Beach and Apalachicola proper are the exceptions WPC flagged. Farther east, Savannah, Jacksonville, and St. Augustine have the urban runoff problem: neighborhood probabilities for more than 5 inches of 40 to 60 percent along the Georgia-Florida coast, but low probabilities for a broad 2-inch footprint, which is the signature of pulse storms, not a training line. Restoration read: short windows of ponding on I-95 and poor-drainage lots. Tree and wind claims are not the organized threat. Effective bulk shear under 30 knots and poor lapse rates are why SPC left this out of every severe area.

New England gusts, and the Mississippi river stages

Northern New York into northern New England can still see low-topped showers and a locally gusty wind as the Quebec trough moves east. SPC’s morning and midday discussions both said limited low-level moisture should hinder an organized severe wind threat. That is a roof-and-limb check, not a watch. On the Mississippi, Louisiana and Clarksville remain in minor flood warnings into Tuesday and Wednesday. Edison Avenue past the railroad tracks at Louisiana, and the road to Port Marmac south of Clarksville, are the impact lines already written. Restoration read: access and contents at the river edge, not a convective outbreak.

Just hit

The last 24 hours did not produce a severe-report day. SPC’s filtered and unfiltered pages for today show no tornado, hail, or wind reports. Yesterday’s page, covering 1200 UTC October 3 through 1159 UTC October 4, also listed none. What did hit is water. Overnight flash flood warnings covered Enterprise, Ozark, Fort Rucker, Elba, and New Brockton in Coffee and Dale counties, and Clayton and the US 82 corridor in Barbour County, Alabama, with 1 to 3 inches already down in Coffee and Dale and 4 to 6 inches cited in Barbour before those polygons expired before dawn. A special marine warning early Monday noted a possible waterspout southeast of V Tower on Apalachee Bay. Those are already-ticket items if a call came in overnight. They are not an open warning this afternoon.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC/NWS level	Status
Lower Texas coast	Heavy rain, isolated flash flood	WPC Marginal; no SPC risk	Live, shrinking offshore
Florida Panhandle, N/central FL, E Georgia	Pulse heavy rain, urban ponding	WPC Marginal; general thunder	Live into early afternoon
Southeast Alabama	Overnight flash flood	Expired FFWs before dawn	Just hit, not live
Northern New England	Locally gusty low-topped wind	General thunder, no severe area	Scattered, not organized
Mississippi at Louisiana and Clarksville	Minor river flood	Flood warnings into Tue/Wed	Ongoing river, not storm
Rest of the CONUS	None organized	No watches, no MDs, no LSRs	Quiet

What this means for restoration teams

Do not staff a severe board tonight. There is no watch to stage against and no hail or wind report stack to work. The open work is water: finish overnight Alabama flood calls in Coffee, Dale, and Barbour if they are still wet; keep a small extract-and-dry crew available for Cameron County, Willacy County, and South Padre Island if a cell comes back onshore; and treat Panama City Beach, Apalachicola, Jacksonville, and the Savannah-to-St. Augustine strip as short-fuse ponding, not a line. Mississippi river access at Louisiana and Clarksville is a contents and road problem through midweek. Tree work in New England only if a local gust actually takes a limb. No client names belong on this desk.

What this is not

This is not a derecho, not a severe-thunderstorm outbreak, and not a U.S. landfalling hurricane. Hurricane Rachel, 90 mph and moving west at 8 mph near 20.3N 117.1W as of the 2 p.m. PDT advisory, is an eastern Pacific storm and is not a U.S. land threat. There are no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic. Invest AL92, a trough over the southwestern Gulf of America, has a 60 percent chance of formation in 48 hours and 80 percent in 7 days, with a tropical depression expected around midweek. NHC said it is too early to assign specific impacts to the northern Gulf Coast. It is not a named cyclone on or just off U.S. land this afternoon, so it does not open a named-storm restoration file today.

Looking ahead one day

The SPC 1730 UTC Day 2 outlook, issued 12:30 p.m. CDT Monday by Lyons and valid Tuesday, again has no severe thunderstorm areas. Severe storms are unlikely Tuesday. High pressure and cool northerly flow favor a drier, more stable East. Scattered storms remain possible on the Gulf Coast and into central and southern Florida as the front sags south, with weak lapse rates and shear. Isolated storms are possible over the higher terrain of the Rockies under a weak trough, and isolated storms are possible across the northern Great Lakes late Tuesday under cooler mid-level temperatures. The Gulf disturbance is the item to recheck Tuesday morning, not a reason to invent a landfall today.

Sources

SPC Day 1 convective outlook, 2000 UTC October 5, 2026: spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
SPC current watches: spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/
SPC mesoscale discussions: spc.noaa.gov/products/md/
SPC today’s storm reports: spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/today.html
WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook: wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/ero.php
NWS watches and warnings text: weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php
NHC Atlantic tropical weather outlook, 2 p.m. EDT October 5, 2026, and Hurricane Rachel advisory: nhc.noaa.gov
SPC Day 2 outlook, 1730 UTC October 5, 2026: spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html
Morning desk for this calendar day: Storm Updates: Texas Coast Slight Flood, Quiet Severe Pulse — Monday, October 5, 2026 (Morning)

Informational only — not an official warning. For warnings and local forecasts use weather.gov and spc.noaa.gov. Turn around, don’t drown.

October 5, 2026

Storm Updates: Texas Coast Slight Flood, Quiet Severe Pulse — Monday, October 5, 2026 (Morning)

This is the Monday morning Storm Tracker desk for October 5, 2026. Overnight into this morning the organized severe window stayed closed. The Storm Prediction Center 1300 UTC Day 1 convective outlook, updated 7:32 a.m. CDT by Guyer and Dean and valid 1300 UTC Monday through 1200 UTC Tuesday, carries no severe thunderstorm areas. The summary line is short: severe thunderstorms are not expected today.

The larger restoration ticket is water, not a watch box. The Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, updated 0746 UTC and discussed at 3:57 a.m. EDT by Wegman, keeps a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall for the southern lower Texas coast, including Brownsville and coastal Willacy and Cameron counties. Southeast Alabama took radar-indicated flash flood warnings overnight that have since expired. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What is live this morning

No convective watches are currently valid. SPC’s watch page, updated 12:26 UTC Monday, lists none. The most recently issued watch is still Severe Thunderstorm Watch 676, a Wednesday, September 30 product for west-central Texas. No mesoscale discussion is driving a severe box this morning. SPC’s storm-report page for the new convective day, 1200 UTC Monday through 1159 UTC Tuesday, shows no tornado, hail, or wind reports received.

The pattern behind the quiet severe desk is progressive northwesterly flow over the northern tier of the country and Canada, with a prominent upper trough shifting east over Quebec. Surface high pressure and large-scale subsidence generally prevail east of the Mississippi River. Surface troughing is becoming established across the Great Plains, but with limited moisture. Along the Gulf Coast and Florida, thunderstorms are expected near and south of a southward-shifting frontal boundary. Isolated low-topped thunderstorms may occur today from northern New York into northern New England as a cold front shifts east. SPC notes a few convectively enhanced wind gusts might occur there as lapse rates steepen diurnally. That is a local gust note, not a risk area.

Watches that expired overnight versus what is still live

Nothing convective expired overnight because nothing convective was valid. The overnight Day 1 outlook at 0100 UTC, written by Squitieri at 8:37 p.m. CDT Sunday, already said severe thunderstorms were not expected across the continental United States through 1200 UTC. Lightning coverage along the sagging Southeast front was expected to decrease with nocturnal cooling, and a plume of marginal buoyancy from Colorado into New Mexico was expected to wane.

The products that did expire were flash flood warnings, not watches. National Weather Service Birmingham extended a Flash Flood Warning for northern Barbour County until 2:30 a.m. CDT. At 11:52 p.m. CDT Sunday, radar indicated 4 to 6 inches already down, with another 2 to 4 inches possible. The polygon included Clayton, Comer, Spring Hill, Hawkinsville, and U.S. 82 between mile markers 219 and 235. National Weather Service Tallahassee, issued by Jacksonville, put a Flash Flood Warning on central Coffee County and northwestern Dale County until 4:15 a.m. CDT. At 1:20 a.m. CDT, radar indicated 1 to 3 inches down and up to 2 inches more, covering Elba, Fort Rucker, Enterprise, Ozark, New Brockton, and Ariton. Both of those warnings are off the board this morning.

A Special Marine Warning from Tallahassee, also issued by Jacksonville, covered Apalachee Bay and coastal waters from the Suwannee River to Apalachicola until 3:30 a.m. EDT for a radar-indicated waterspout and gusts of 34 knots or greater. The cell was 12 nautical miles southeast of V Tower, moving east at 5 knots. That marine warning has expired. It was a coastal water ticket, not a land tornado report.

What is still live is flood-watch language, not a convective watch. National Weather Service Mobile, issued by New Orleans at 9:58 p.m. CDT Sunday, extended a Flood Watch through Monday morning, until 1700 UTC, for portions of southwest Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle, including Baldwin and Mobile counties and the Destin to Fort Walton Beach coast. National Weather Service Tallahassee, issued by Jacksonville Sunday afternoon, holds a Flood Watch through Monday evening for southeast Alabama including Geneva and Houston counties, the Florida Panhandle, and parts of south Georgia. The Tallahassee text calls for another 2 to 4 inches, locally up to 6, especially along the Emerald and Forgotten coasts, and notes south-central Georgia is already primed from Friday rain. National Weather Service Jacksonville at 2:17 a.m. EDT extended a Flood Watch through this evening for portions of north Florida and southeast Georgia, including Baker, coastal Duval, coastal and inland Nassau, and eastern Hamilton counties, with listed towns running from Fernandina Beach and Hilliard toward Alma and Woodbine.

Hotspot 1 — Lower Texas coast

This is the only Slight Risk on the WPC Day 1 map. A stalled front remains draped across almost the entire Gulf Coast, and the piece near the lower Texas coast is stationary. Flow on both sides of the front is out of the northeast. Precipitable water along the front is above 2.25 inches, and sea-surface temperatures in the upper 80s are feeding slow-moving, training showers and thunderstorms that are moving southwest along the front into the coast. WPC says rainfall yesterday alone ranged from 3 to 6 inches, with another 2 to 4 inches expected today.

Wegman kept the Slight Risk specifically for coastal Willacy and Cameron counties, including Brownsville, and noted that outside urban pockets on South Padre Island and in Brownsville, much of the area is flat with sandy soils that are difficult to flood even with this volume. That is an urban and poor-drainage ticket, not a basin-wide river emergency.

Restoration read: stage extraction and drying for low-lying streets, underpasses, and first-floor commercial space in Brownsville and on South Padre, not a regional roof-and-wind deployment. Yesterday’s 3 to 6 inches is already a wet-drywall clock in the places that did not drain. Photograph standing water only if the road is clear. Turn around, don’t drown.

Hotspot 2 — Southeast Alabama into the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend

The same front extends across far southern Alabama, Georgia, and north Florida, but here it has been moving south, slowly. WPC left this corridor in a Marginal Risk. The heaviest rains are aimed at the Florida Panhandle near Apalachicola and the Big Bend. Forecast totals for the day run 3 to 6 inches in those regions. Forecasters kept the risk at Marginal because the area is relatively flat, sparsely populated in the core, and full of swamp that can take water. Urban flash-flood concern stays along I-10 from Pensacola through Tallahassee into Jacksonville, where storms are not expected to move very far.

Overnight just-hit reports are the Barbour, Coffee, and Dale warnings. Those polygons are off, but the Flood Watches are not. Mobile’s watch runs through Monday morning. Tallahassee’s runs through Monday evening. That is the handoff from a warning that already verified on radar to a watch that still covers the next round.

Restoration read: southeast Alabama is a just-hit water desk. Enterprise, Ozark, Elba, and Clayton are the towns named in the expired warnings. Treat interior water found this morning as last night’s rain, not a new severe claim. The Panhandle and Big Bend are today’s training-rain desk if cells sit on I-10 or the Forgotten Coast. Do not staff it as wind or hail.

Quiet severe pulse and leftover river water

Northern New York into northern New England is the only place SPC mentioned enhanced gusts, and only as isolated low-topped storms on the cold front. No risk area, no watch, no reports. The Plains stay moisture-starved under the surface trough. East of the Mississippi, high pressure is the dominant story away from the Gulf front.

River products already on the board are not the same as a flash-flood warning. National Weather Service St. Louis at 10:30 p.m. CDT Sunday kept minor flooding on the Mississippi River at Louisiana, Missouri, stage 15.2 feet against a 15.0-foot flood stage, in effect until Wednesday morning, and at Clarksville, stage 25.2 feet against 25.0, until Tuesday evening. National Weather Service Quad Cities replaced a river flood watch with a flood warning for minor flooding on the Wapsipinicon River near Anamosa Shaw Road from Monday morning into Tuesday morning. Those are channel tickets from earlier rain, not this morning’s convective pulse.

Tropics are not a U.S. land desk this morning. No named cyclone is threatening the mainland or is on the coast from an overnight landfall. The National Hurricane Center Atlantic discussion at 1215 UTC notes a front stalling over the northern Gulf and says broad low pressure may develop over the far southwest Gulf Tuesday night into Wednesday. Environmental conditions are only marginally conducive; a tropical depression could form in the second half of the week while the system drifts east, then turns north. That is a development note, not a landfall warning. The hurricane-warning language on the national watch page this morning is offshore Mexico in the eastern Pacific, not a Gulf Coast product.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / WPC / NWS level	Status this morning
Lower Texas coast (Cameron, Willacy, Brownsville)	Training rain, urban flood	WPC Slight; no SPC severe area	Live; another 2–4 inches after 3–6 yesterday
SE Alabama (Barbour, Coffee, Dale)	Just-hit flash flood	Warnings expired 2:30–4:15 a.m. CDT	Aftermath; 1–6 inches indicated overnight
SW Alabama / western FL Panhandle	Additional heavy rain	Flood Watch through Monday morning	Live until about noon CDT
Emerald / Forgotten Coast, Big Bend	Training rain, isolated flash flood	WPC Marginal; Flood Watch through Monday evening	Live; 3–6 inches possible, locally 6
North Florida / SE Georgia	Excessive rainfall	JAX Flood Watch through this evening	Live
Northern NY / northern New England	Isolated gusty storms	No severe area	Low-topped; no watch
Mississippi at Louisiana MO / Clarksville; Wapsipinicon	Minor river flood	Flood warnings	In channel, not a new convective ticket

What this means for restoration teams

There is no wind or hail box to stage against. The morning work, if it is already inside a building, is southeast Alabama water from warnings that expired before dawn, plus any Brownsville or South Padre street that did not clear after yesterday’s 3 to 6 inches. The day work is extraction timing on the lower Texas coast and a flood-watch posture from Mobile through the Panhandle into north Florida and south Georgia.

A Slight Risk of excessive rainfall on sandy coastal plain is not the same job as a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms. Staff pumps, moisture meters, and drying equipment. Do not staff tarps for a watch that does not exist. River statements on the Mississippi and the Wapsipinicon are separate from the Gulf front; they are slow water already in the channel.

What this is not

This is not a severe outbreak and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. SPC’s categorical map is empty. No convective watch is valid. No preliminary tornado, hail, or wind report is on today’s SPC log. The Gulf development note is a midweek possibility over the southwest Gulf, not an overnight hit. The local-storm pattern this desk should staff is training rain on a stalled coastal front and leftover flood-watch counties from last night’s Alabama warnings.

Looking ahead

SPC’s next Day 1 outlook is scheduled by 1630 UTC. WPC’s Day 1 window runs through 12 UTC Tuesday. The front stays the story: stationary on the lower Texas coast, still sagging south across the Southeast. If the southwest Gulf low organizes later in the week, that becomes a tropical desk only after NHC names it or puts a watch on the coast. Until then it is a moisture source for the same stalled boundary.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook for Monday, October 5, 2026, and the current convective watch page (no watches valid, stamp 12:26 UTC); SPC today’s storm reports; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, updated 0746 UTC; National Weather Service watch, warning, and advisory text for Birmingham, Tallahassee, Jacksonville, Mobile, St. Louis, and Quad Cities. Prior desk: Sunday afternoon, October 4 — Florida Panhandle Marginal, Texas Coast Moderate Rain.

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook and LSRs, and the WPC excessive-rainfall page for the flood overlay.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

October 5, 2026

Storm Updates: Florida Panhandle Marginal, Texas Coast Moderate Rain — Sunday, October 4, 2026

This is the Sunday afternoon Storm Tracker desk for October 4, 2026. The organized severe window is small and coastal, not a plains outbreak. The Storm Prediction Center 2000 UTC Day 1 convective outlook, updated 2:28 p.m. CDT, kept a Marginal risk across parts of the Florida Panhandle and far southern Alabama and made no changes from the late-morning update. SPC listed no convective watches valid on the current watch page (stamp 1416 UTC) and no mesoscale discussions were in effect on the morning product check. The live problem this afternoon is water. The Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, updated 0738 UTC, carries a Moderate risk of excessive rainfall for portions of the lower Texas coast, with a higher-end flood signal from Mobile Bay east across the Emerald and Forgotten coasts. Restoration exposure today is standing water, street flooding, and saturated roofs and ceilings, not a hail core or a widespread wind field.

What is live this afternoon

SPC’s Marginal area covers about 8,882 square miles and roughly 998,000 people. Larger centers named in the outlook include Pensacola, Panama City, Ferry Pass, Wright, and Brent. The only probabilistic severe risk drawn is a 2 percent tornado contour. No damaging-wind or large-hail areas are forecast. The discussion, carried forward at 20Z by Thornton from the 11:25 a.m. CDT Gleason/Chalmers update, says a nearly stationary front sits across the Southeast with precipitable water above 2 inches south of it. A weak offshore surface low may still form and briefly raise low-level shear near the coast. If that happens, storms can spin up transient circulations, mainly a waterspout or a brief tornado. Poor lapse rates and weak instability are the brake. Recent RAP runs even suggest the low-level wind bump may not arrive.

WPC’s Day 1 excessive-rainfall discussion, written by Weiss at 3:46 a.m. EDT and still the valid Day 1 product this afternoon, is the sharper desk. Precipitable water of 2.25 to 2.5 inches sits above the 99th percentile, warm-cloud depths are deep, and rainfall rates of 2 to 3 inches per hour are in the forecast along the stalled front. From Mobile Bay east to the Florida Panhandle, WPC expects some spots at 3 to 5 inches, locally as much as 8. A small Moderate was considered there and held at a high-end Slight after coordination with the Mobile and Tallahassee offices. On the lower Texas coast, between Brownsville and Corpus Christi, the same discussion raised a targeted Moderate. Repeated onshore cells, rates of 2 to 3 inches per hour, and local maxima above 10 inches are on the table. REFS and HREF showed a greater than 50 percent chance of at least 8 inches. Recent rain of 2 to 4 inches in 12 hours, and up to 8 inches in three days, is already on the ground in parts of that corridor. A separate heavier-rain signal sits on the Georgia coast near Savannah, where flash-flood guidance is locally 1 to 2 inches in three hours after recent saturation.

The National Weather Service short-range discussion at 3:50 p.m. EDT said locally heavy rain continues into Monday for southern Texas and northern Florida. A Flood Watch remains active across northern Florida into southern Georgia through Monday evening, with an additional 2 to 4 inches possible. The New Orleans forecast discussion at 12:50 p.m. CDT kept a Flood Watch through this evening for the eastern half of southeast Louisiana and coastal Mississippi, with another 1 to 3 inches possible east of I-55 and lighter rain west of it. Morning flash-flood warnings for parts of Bay, Walton, and Okaloosa counties had already expired by early afternoon. They are last-24-hour tickets, not live warnings at this writing.

Hotspots

Lower Texas coast: Brownsville to Corpus Christi

This is the Moderate excessive-rain area. Counties in the prior-cycle discussion that still frame the threat include Kenedy, Willacy, and the northeastern edge of Cameron, with the urban question centered on Brownsville, Harlingen, and any cell that drifts into Corpus Christi. Sandy soils can take a lot of rain. Urban streets and poor drainage cannot. Restoration read: water extraction and contents moves if a training band sits on a neighborhood, not a wind or hail claim cycle. Do not treat a Moderate rainfall outlook as a confirmed flash-flood warning for every block.

Florida Panhandle and far southern Alabama

Pensacola, Ferry Pass, Brent, Fort Walton Beach, Destin, and Panama City sit in the Marginal severe area and in the heavier Gulf-coast rain plume. Morning radar-indicated flash flooding was called for southeastern Okaloosa (Wright, Fort Walton Beach, Niceville, Destin) until 9:45 a.m. CDT, and for west-central Bay and southwestern Walton (Santa Rosa Beach, Freeport, Sandestin, Inlet Beach) until 10:45 a.m. CDT. Special marine warnings earlier today flagged waterspout potential south of Destin and along Apalachee Bay. Restoration read: check low-lying commercial pads, beach-corridor retail, and any roof that took repeated cells overnight. A brief coastal circulation is a tree-and-edge-metal check, not a territory-wide wind event. No tornado watch is up.

Southeast Louisiana, coastal Mississippi, and the Georgia coast

East of I-55 in the New Orleans service area, the Flood Watch runs through this evening, with localized flooding still possible on another 1 to 3 inches. Coastal Mississippi zones were included in that same watch. Around Savannah, WPC flagged a two-round setup: sea-breeze storms this afternoon and a possible second round tonight if the Panhandle wave lifts northeast. Restoration read: crawl spaces, flat roofs, and parking-lot drains. This is a Marginal-to-Slight flood problem on already wet ground, not a severe-thunderstorm warning day.

Just hit

The tickets already on the board are water, and they are morning products. National Weather Service Tallahassee, issued by Jacksonville, put a flash-flood warning on west-central Bay and southwestern Walton at 8:38 a.m. EDT after 1 to 3 inches, with another 1 to 2 inches possible. National Weather Service Mobile, issued by New Orleans, warned southeastern Okaloosa at 6:52 a.m. CDT after 2 to 4 inches, with another 1 to 3 possible. Both warnings expired before noon CDT. Waterspout-capable cells were noted on the nearshore Gulf from south of Destin toward Panama City Beach and on Apalachee Bay. No SPC severe-watch number was issued today. The most recent convective watch on the SPC page remains watch 676, and it is not valid. Iowa river flood warnings (Iowa River, South Skunk, Des Moines, Raccoon) are lingering river statements, not a new convective ticket.

Afternoon pulse

Region	Main threats	SPC/NWS level	Status
Florida Panhandle / far south Alabama	Brief tornado or waterspout, heavy rain	SPC Marginal, 2% tornado; WPC high-end Slight flood	Live, no watch
Lower Texas coast	Training rain, urban flooding	WPC Moderate excessive rain	Live through tonight
SE Louisiana / coastal Mississippi	1–3 more inches east of I-55	Flood Watch through this evening	Live, localized
North Florida into south Georgia	Another 2–4 inches into Monday	Flood Watch through Monday evening	Live
Georgia coast near Savannah	Repeating 2–3 in/hr cells	WPC local heavier-rain signal	Conditional
Plains, Midwest, Northeast	Cooler air, no severe	No SPC risk	Quiet
Southern California	Extreme heat, not storms	Extreme Heat Warning into Thursday	Not a storm ticket

What this means for restoration teams

Stage water, not wind. On the lower Texas coast the job is extraction timing: a band can drop several inches in a couple of hours on ground that already took rain yesterday and Friday. On the Panhandle the job is the overlap of a Marginal spin-up risk and a Slight flood risk. Crews in Pensacola, Fort Walton Beach, and Panama City should expect wet ceilings and street closures before they expect shingle loss. Southeast Louisiana and coastal Mississippi are a watch-through-evening problem east of I-55. Savannah is a second-round overnight check, not a dispatch-now severe call. Heat warnings in Southern California and freeze headlines Monday morning in parts of Minnesota and Wisconsin are real, and they are not storm-damage tickets.

What this is not

This is not a Slight or Enhanced severe-thunderstorm day. SPC drew no wind risk and no hail risk. It is not a derecho. It is not a U.S. hurricane landfall. Hurricane Rachel, 105 mph at 2:00 p.m. MST, was near 20.1 N, 114.3 W, moving west at 6 mph, a few hundred miles southwest of the Baja California tip. Hurricane warnings on the Pacific waters off Mexico are offshore marine products, not a U.S. coastal warning. Hurricane Nolo was crossing the International Date Line and leaving NHC responsibility, well west-northwest of Hawaii. The Atlantic has no tropical cyclones this afternoon. A low may form over the southwestern Gulf around midweek, with a 7-day formation chance near 40 percent and a 48-hour chance near 0 percent as of the 2 p.m. EDT outlook. That is not a named storm on U.S. land.

Looking ahead one day

SPC’s 0600 UTC Day 2 outlook, issued 12:21 a.m. CDT, said severe storms are unlikely across the United States on Monday. Moisture and storms stay pinned to the northern Gulf Coast and Florida under a large surface high. WPC’s short-range discussion keeps locally heavy rain going into Monday on southern Texas and northern Florida, and it placed a Slight risk of excessive rainfall on southern Texas for tomorrow. The Flood Watch from northern Florida into southern Georgia runs through Monday evening. The front sags south. The severe window does not open behind it.

Sources

SPC Day 1 convective outlook, 2000 UTC update, 2:28 p.m. CDT October 4, 2026: spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
SPC current watches, no watches valid, page stamp 1416 UTC October 4, 2026: spc.noaa.gov/products/watch
WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, updated 0738 UTC October 4, 2026: wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/ero.php
WPC Short Range Forecast Discussion, 3:50 p.m. EDT October 4, 2026: wpc.ncep.noaa.gov short-range discussion
NWS watches and warnings text summary: weather.gov WWA summary
NWS New Orleans area forecast discussion, 12:50 p.m. CDT October 4, 2026
NHC active cyclones, 2 p.m. EDT Atlantic outlook and Hurricane Rachel advisory, October 4, 2026: nhc.noaa.gov
Morning Storm Tracker for this date: Storm Updates, October 4, 2026 (Morning)

Informational only — not an official warning. Confirm every local product at weather.gov and spc.noaa.gov before a crew rolls. Turn around, don’t drown.

October 4, 2026

Storm Updates: Florida Panhandle Marginal, Texas Coast Moderate Rain — Sunday, October 4, 2026 (Morning)

This is the Sunday morning Storm Tracker desk for October 4, 2026. Overnight into this morning the organized severe window stayed small, but it is no longer empty. The Storm Prediction Center 1300 UTC Day 1 convective outlook, updated 7:43 a.m. CDT by Guyer and Dean and valid 1300 UTC Sunday through 1200 UTC Monday, carries a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms across the coastal Florida Panhandle. The summary line is short: a few rotating thunderstorms are possible today across the coastal Florida Panhandle.

The larger restoration ticket is water, not a watch box. The Weather Prediction Center raised a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall for the lower Texas coast, and National Weather Service flash flood warnings were already in effect before 9 a.m. CDT on the Emerald Coast. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What is live this morning

No convective watches are currently valid. SPC’s watch page, updated 12:04 UTC Sunday, lists none. The most recently issued watch is still Severe Thunderstorm Watch 676, a Wednesday, September 30 product for west-central Texas. Nothing from Saturday night carried into Sunday morning as a severe thunderstorm or tornado watch. The 0100 UTC Day 1 outlook Saturday night, written by Marsh, had no severe areas at all. The Marginal was added on the 0600 UTC cycle and kept on the 1300 UTC update.

SPC local storm reports for the 1200 UTC Saturday through 1159 UTC Sunday window, and for the new Sunday convective day that opened at 1200 UTC, show no tornado, hail, or wind reports received. The overnight severe hit list is empty. What verified overnight and into the morning is rain, not a wind or hail survey.

The Marginal area on the 1300 UTC graphic covers about 7,329 square miles and about 828,936 people. Larger population centers listed by SPC include Pensacola, Panama City, Ferry Pass, Wright, and Brent. The 0600 UTC probabilistic table placed a 2 percent tornado risk on that same coastal strip and listed no damaging-wind or large-hail areas. The 1300 UTC discussion does not add a wind or hail probability. The threat, if it verifies, is a brief, transient low-level circulation near the coast.

Hotspot 1 — Florida Panhandle and the central Gulf Coast

A stalled or slow-southeastward-moving surface front sits across the Southeast and Deep South. South of it, precipitable water is in excess of 2 inches, and the 0600 UTC discussion cited mean precipitable water near 2.5 inches on the Florida Panhandle with mean MUCAPE generally 500 J/kg or less. Scattered showers and thunderstorms were already common early today south of the front, including the northern Gulf. SPC notes some guidance, most notably recent NAM runs, for weak offshore surface low development and a related increase in low-level flow and storm-relative helicity. If that trend holds, storms near the coast can spin up briefly. The related hazard is a waterspout or a brief tornado, mainly near the coast.

That marine piece is already on the warning map. National Weather Service Tallahassee, issued by Jacksonville, put special marine warnings up before 8 a.m. CDT for coastal waters from the Okaloosa–Walton line toward Mexico Beach, and again toward Apalachee Bay, for waterspouts and wind gusts of 34 knots or greater. Mobile, issued by New Orleans, had a special marine warning for coastal waters from the Okaloosa–Walton line to Pensacola. Those are marine products. They are not a land tornado warning, and none was on the national summary at the morning scan.

Water is the product that is already warning, not watching. At 6:52 a.m. CDT, National Weather Service Mobile, issued by New Orleans, issued a flash flood warning for southeastern Okaloosa County until 9:45 a.m. CDT. Radar indicated 2 to 4 inches already down, with another 1 to 3 inches possible. Locations named in the warning include Wright, Fort Walton Beach, Niceville, Destin, Eglin Air Force Base, Valparaiso, and Mary Esther. At 7:38 a.m. CDT, Tallahassee, issued by Jacksonville, issued a flash flood warning for west-central Bay County and southwestern Walton County until 10:45 a.m. CDT. Radar indicated 1 to 3 inches already down, with another 1 to 2 inches possible. Locations include Santa Rosa Beach, Freeport, Grayton Beach, Seaside, Sandestin, Inlet Beach, and Miramar Beach.

Flood watches frame that warning. Mobile’s flood watch remains through this evening for Mobile and Baldwin counties in southwest Alabama and for Escambia, Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa counties in northwest Florida, including Pensacola, Gulf Shores, and Fort Walton Beach. Additional rainfall of 4 to 6 inches is expected, with locally higher amounts up to 10 inches. Tallahassee’s flood watch remains through Monday morning for Walton, Holmes, Washington, Bay, and Gulf counties, and a separate watch through Monday morning covers southeast Alabama (Geneva and Houston), the Florida Big Bend including Tallahassee, and south-central Georgia including Albany, Thomasville, and Valdosta. Additional totals of 2 to 6 inches are forecast, locally up to 10 inches along the Emerald Coast. New Orleans holds a flood watch through this evening for coastal Mississippi (Hancock, Harrison, and Jackson counties, including Gulfport and Biloxi) and for southeast Louisiana including New Orleans, with an additional 3 to 5 inches possible. Jacksonville has a flood watch from noon today through Monday morning for the Georgia coast, where prior rain has already cut flash-flood guidance.

WPC’s Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, updated 0738 UTC Sunday and valid 12 UTC Sunday through 12 UTC Monday, kept an enhanced Slight Risk from Mobile Bay east to the Emerald and Forgotten coasts and deferred a Moderate upgrade there after coordination with offices Mobile and Tallahassee. Forecaster Weiss cited 2 to 3 inch-per-hour rates, precipitable water above 2.25 to 2.5 inches, and training where Corfidi vectors collapse. Some areas can see 3 to 5 inches today, locally as much as 8 inches. A separate Georgia-coast signal is centered near Savannah, with compromised flash-flood guidance of 1 to 2 inches in three hours.

Restoration read: staff the warning, not the Marginal polygon. Okaloosa, Walton, and Bay are the live water board this morning. Pensacola to Panama City is the brief-tornado strip if the offshore low tightens low-level shear. This is wet drywall, flooring, and a short mold clock where water enters. It is not a regional roof or hail crew. Do not treat a special marine warning as a land damage survey.

Hotspot 2 — Lower Texas coast

The highest excessive-rain category on the board is not the Panhandle. WPC raised a targeted Moderate Risk for the lower Texas coast between Brownsville and Corpus Christi after coordination with offices Brownsville and Corpus Christi. Convection developing over the Gulf is expected to track southwest into moist inflow and push onshore repeatedly. Rates of 2 to 3 inches per hour could produce local maxima in excess of 10 inches. Both the REFS and HREF indicate a greater than 50 percent chance of at least 8 inches. Recent rain has already been significant in spots: 2 to 4 inches in the last 12 hours, and up to 8 inches in the last three days. Sandy soils keep flash-flood guidance elevated, but WPC still flags locally significant impacts if the core crosses urban areas or more sensitive soils.

A Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall was joined along the immediate western Gulf Coast for possible onshore drift of heavy rain through the morning and afternoon. That is a lower bar than the Moderate strip from Brownsville to Corpus Christi. A coastal flood advisory is also in effect until 2 p.m. CDT for minor coastal flooding on the Aransas, Kleberg, and Nueces islands. That is tide and surge on the islands, not a convective watch.

Restoration read: Brownsville, Corpus Christi, and the communities between them are the new volume ticket. Saturday’s Slight Risk on this same coast is now a Moderate. Stage for street flooding and first-floor water only where a warning or a closed road verifies. Do not send the Panhandle crew and the Texas coast crew as if they are one storm.

What expired, and what is still just a river

Saturday’s Day 1 outlook had no severe areas, and Saturday’s storm-report page stayed empty. The Gulf Coast Slight Risk of excessive rain from Saturday is the parent of this morning’s watches, not a separate event. Iowa river flood warnings continued early Sunday on the Iowa River near Tama, Black Hawk Creek at Hudson, the South Skunk River at Colfax, and the Des Moines and Raccoon rivers at Des Moines. Those are river-stage tickets. They are not a convective watch and not a new storm-damage board.

Tropics — not a U.S. land desk

National Hurricane Center Advisory 29 at 2:00 a.m. MST Sunday places Hurricane Rachel near 20.2°N, 113.2°W, moving west-northwest at 5 mph, with maximum sustained winds of 100 mph and a minimum pressure of 968 mb. Rachel strengthened a little and remains well southwest of Baja California. The hurricane warnings on the morning national summary are offshore-waters products for the eastern Pacific within 250 nautical miles of Mexico, including waters near the Revillagigedo Islands and Cabo San Lucas. That is not a U.S. landfall.

Hurricane Nolo, at 11:00 p.m. HST Saturday, was near 23.6°N, 176.7°W, moving west at 18 mph with winds of 110 mph, and is expected to cross the International Date Line on Sunday. It is not a U.S. mainland threat. The Atlantic basin has no tropical cyclones this morning. The Gulf rain is tied to the stalled front and deep moisture, not to a named storm making landfall.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / WPC / NWS level	Status this morning
Coastal Florida Panhandle	Brief tornado, waterspout	SPC Marginal; 2% tornado on 0600 UTC	Live today; no convective watch
Okaloosa, Walton, Bay counties	Flash flood	Flash flood warnings to mid-morning	Live; 1–4 inches already indicated
Mobile Bay to Emerald Coast	Training heavy rain	WPC Slight, upgrade deferred; flood watches	4–6 inches more, locally 8–10
SE Louisiana, coastal Mississippi	Heavy rain	Flood watch through this evening	Additional 3–5 inches possible
Lower Texas coast	Extreme rain rates	WPC Moderate	Local maxima above 10 inches possible
Georgia coast near Savannah	Repeated heavy rain	Flood watch noon through Monday morning	Soils already partly saturated
U.S. mainland tropics	None	Atlantic clear; Rachel SW of Baja	Offshore Mexico warnings only

What this means for restoration teams

There is still no wind-driven roof board on the Day 1 outlook. The Marginal is a coastal spin-up risk, not a hail or widespread damaging-wind risk. A 2-to-3 inch-per-hour rate is wet drywall and a 24-to-48-hour mold clock only where water actually enters. High flash-flood guidance on sandy Texas soils means part of the Moderate Risk will not produce a claim. Staff the warning polygon in Okaloosa, Walton, and Bay first. Treat Brownsville to Corpus Christi as the volume board if cells come onshore this afternoon. The empty SPC report page means there is no new hail or tornado survey from overnight.

Next check

The next Day 1 convective outlook is scheduled by 1630 UTC. Day 2, valid Monday, carries no severe thunderstorm areas. The afternoon desk should re-read the WPC Moderate Risk, any new flash flood warnings on the Panhandle, and whether the brief-tornado trend still holds before treating this morning polygon as still live. Flood watches on the Panhandle run through Monday morning. Mobile, New Orleans, and the lower Texas coast are today’s shorter fuse.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook for Sunday, October 4, 2026; SPC current watches (none valid; last issued watch 676); SPC storm reports for October 3 and October 4 (no tornado, hail, or wind reports received); Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, updated 0738 UTC Sunday; National Weather Service watches, warnings, and advisories summary, including flash flood warnings for Okaloosa County and for Bay and Walton counties; National Hurricane Center Advisory 29 on Hurricane Rachel, 2:00 a.m. MST Sunday. Prior desk: Storm Updates: Gulf Coast Slight Flood, Quiet Severe Pulse — Saturday, October 3, 2026.

Disclaimer: This is a morning desk summary of public National Weather Service, Storm Prediction Center, Weather Prediction Center, and National Hurricane Center products. It is not a warning, not a forecast for a specific address, and not a substitute for local NWS products. Watches and warnings expire and get replaced. Confirm the county or ZIP on weather.gov before travel or work.

October 4, 2026

Storm Updates: Gulf Coast Slight Flood, Quiet Severe Pulse — Saturday, October 3, 2026

This is the Saturday afternoon Storm Tracker desk for October 3, 2026. The organized severe window is still closed. The Storm Prediction Center 2000 UTC Day 1 convective outlook, updated 2:46 p.m. CDT by Thornton and valid 2000 UTC Saturday through 1200 UTC Sunday, carries no severe thunderstorm areas. The summary line is unchanged from the morning issuance: organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. The 20z update made only minor adjustments to the general thunder line.

What is organized this afternoon is water, not wind or hail. Restoration exposure is coastal rain on the central Gulf Coast and the lower Texas coast, plus river stages already above flood stage in eastern Iowa. There is no convective watch, no mesoscale discussion, and no SPC local storm report on the board. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What is live this afternoon

No convective watches are currently valid. SPC’s watch page, updated 21:16 UTC Saturday, lists none. The most recently issued watch remains Severe Thunderstorm Watch 676. No mesoscale discussions are in effect as of 21:10 UTC; the most recently issued discussion is MD 2345. The national watches-and-warnings text summary does not show a live Severe Thunderstorm Warning or Tornado Warning this afternoon.

SPC local storm reports for the Saturday convective day, 1200 UTC Saturday through 1159 UTC Sunday, show no tornado, hail, or wind reports received as of this desk. The afternoon severe hit list is empty. Showers and low-topped thunderstorms over parts of the Dakotas are spreading into Minnesota. Surface dewpoints are generally in the 40s. A pocket of weak instability can support occasional lightning, and convectively enhanced wind gusts may occur as low-level lapse rates steepen, but SPC keeps the overall severe-wind risk low because instability is minimal.

The Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, updated 0738 UTC Saturday and valid 12 UTC Saturday through 12 UTC Sunday, still holds a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall for the central Gulf Coast and the lower Texas coast. Forecaster Wegman left both coastal Slight Risk areas in place and kept a higher-end Slight Risk from New Orleans through much of the western Florida Panhandle, citing urban drainage and rainfall volume. There is no Marginal, Slight, Enhanced, Moderate, or High severe-risk area on the Day 1 categorical map.

Hotspot 1 — Central Gulf Coast

A tropical wave moving across the Gulf is funneling record to near-record atmospheric moisture into much of the Gulf Coast. A 15 to 25 knot southerly flow at 850 mb supports numerous showers and thunderstorms into the central Gulf Coast today and tonight. Precipitable water is at or above 2.5 inches for many areas. Cloud cover and the October sun should limit instability away from the coast, so cells that reach the shoreline are not expected to travel far inland without weakening. A weak mid- and upper-level wave centered over the Bay of Campeche is aiding the northward moisture push. SPC still expects this convection to stay disorganized, with weak low-level winds.

WPC’s coast can expect 3 to 6 inches of rain today, with locally higher amounts. Flash-flood guidance is high and soils have been dry, but the volume can still overcome that in urban drainage from New Orleans through the western Florida Panhandle. Mississippi and Alabama coastal counties sit in the same Slight Risk envelope. A nearly stationary front from south and coastal Texas into the Southeast and Carolinas remains the broader thunderstorm focus. Poor lapse rates aloft and weak deep-layer shear should limit organized severe storms along that front through tonight.

Cities and counties to watch: New Orleans and the south-shore and east-bank parishes, coastal Mississippi from Hancock through Jackson County, Mobile and Baldwin counties in Alabama, and the western Florida Panhandle from Pensacola toward Panama City. River products already on the board are not the same as a flash-flood warning. National Weather Service Mobile, issued by New Orleans, has a flood warning for the Styx River near Elsanor in Baldwin County for minor flooding from Sunday evening into Monday morning, with a forecast crest of 12.3 feet early Monday against a 12.0-foot flood stage. A separate flood warning covers the Shoal River near Crestview in Okaloosa County for minor flooding from Monday evening into Thursday morning, crest forecast 9.0 feet Tuesday against an 8.0-foot flood stage.

Restoration read: water first, and only where a warning or measured street flood verifies. Stage extractors and moisture meters for urban low spots and slab-on-grade first floors. This is not a wind or hail board. Do not staff a regional roof crew on a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall. The Styx and Shoal warnings are river-stage tickets for later tonight through early next week, not an afternoon structural-wind call.

Hotspot 2 — Lower Texas coast

The second Slight Risk remains on the coast of Deep South Texas. Onshore northeasterly flow of the same deep tropical moisture may reach urban areas such as Brownsville. Because this stretch of coast sits roughly perpendicular to the mean flow, WPC expects the onshore push to let convection move a few miles inland before it dissipates. No change was made to that Slight Risk area on the 0738 UTC update.

Friday’s central Texas excessive-rain story is a different board. Those time-limited products are not the Saturday Slight Risk. If a river or areal flood warning is still up in central or south-central Texas, treat it as yesterday’s water still in the channel.

Restoration read: Brownsville and the lower Texas coast are the new water ticket if cells train against the coast. Do not send the same crew to the Gulf Coast polygon and a leftover central Texas channel without checking which county has a warning now.

Hotspot 3 — Dakotas into Minnesota, and Iowa river stages

A shortwave trough in the northern mid-level westerlies continues east across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Showers and low-topped storms ongoing over parts of the Dakotas spread into Minnesota this afternoon. SPC allows a convectively enhanced gust as lapse rates steepen. The severe risk stays low. There is no watch and no storm report to hang a roof or tree crew on.

Eastern Iowa is the leftover water ticket. National Weather Service Quad Cities flood statements at 9:07 a.m. CDT Saturday keep a major flood warning on the Wapsipinicon River near De Witt 4S, affecting Clinton and Scott counties, until further notice. The stage was 12.9 feet at 8:30 a.m., flood stage is 11.0 feet, and impacts at 13.0 feet include residences along the river. The North Skunk River near Sigourney, Keokuk County, remains in a moderate flood warning until late Sunday night, stage 18.4 feet against a 16.0-foot flood stage, mostly agricultural land. The Skunk River at Augusta, affecting Lee, Henry, and Des Moines counties, remains in a minor flood warning until Sunday evening, stage 16.9 feet against a 15.0-foot flood stage.

Restoration read: the Wapsipinicon near De Witt is the residential river ticket if water is already in yards or first floors. The Skunk statements are mostly agricultural. Neither is a new convective watch, and neither produced an SPC wind or hail report today.

Just hit

The last 24 hours did not add a severe-report ticket. SPC’s Saturday report page has no tornado, hail, or wind reports. Friday night into Saturday morning did not leave a new hail or tornado survey on the filtered report page. The tickets already open are river stages: major flooding on the Wapsipinicon near De Witt, moderate flooding on the North Skunk near Sigourney, and minor flooding on the Skunk at Augusta. Gulf Coast river rises on the Styx and Shoal are forecast products for Sunday night into early next week, not claims already logged this afternoon.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / WPC / NWS level	Status this afternoon
Central Gulf Coast (SE LA, coastal MS/AL, western FL Panhandle)	Heavy rain, urban flash flood	WPC Slight, higher-end on the coast	Live today and tonight; 3–6 inches, locally higher
Lower Texas coast (Brownsville)	Onshore heavy rain	WPC Slight	Live; cells may push a few miles inland
Dakotas into Minnesota	Low-topped storms, gusts	No severe area	Spreading east; severe risk low
Southeast front into the Carolinas	General thunderstorms	No severe area	Weak shear, poor lapse rates
Eastern Iowa rivers	River flood, some residences	Flood warnings, not a watch	Wapsipinicon major; Skunk moderate to minor
Baldwin AL / Okaloosa FL rivers	Minor river flood later	Flood warnings issued this morning	Styx Sunday night; Shoal Monday night
U.S. mainland tropics	None	Rachel SW of Baja; no coastal warnings	Not a U.S. land desk

What this means for restoration teams

There is no wind-driven roof board on the Day 1 outlook. A 3-to-6-inch coastal rain is wet drywall, flooring, and a 24-to-48-hour mold clock only where water actually enters. High flash-flood guidance and dry soils mean many miles of the Slight Risk will not produce a claim. Staff the warning, not the polygon. Urban New Orleans through the western Florida Panhandle is the higher-end piece of the same Slight Risk because of drainage, not because a watch is up.

Eastern Iowa is the only residential water ticket already on a river gauge this afternoon, and it is the Wapsipinicon near De Witt, not a statewide Iowa event. Southwest Kansas and central Texas remain yesterday’s water only if a flood statement is still valid. The empty SPC report page means there is no new hail, tree, or tornado survey from today.

What this is not

This is not a derecho, not a tornado outbreak, and not a U.S. hurricane landfall. Hurricane Rachel, Advisory information at 2:00 p.m. MST Saturday, is near 19.8°N, 112.5°W, about 270 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California, moving west-northwest at 5 mph, with maximum sustained winds of 80 mph. There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. A slow west to west-northwest motion continues through the weekend, away from the U.S. mainland. Swells can affect west-central Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula. That is a marine hazard, not a U.S. land ticket. Hurricane warnings on the national summary this afternoon are offshore-waters products for the eastern Pacific within 250 nautical miles of Mexico, not U.S. coastal warnings.

Hurricane Nolo is a Central Pacific system accelerating west and expected to cross the International Date Line on Sunday. It is not a U.S. mainland threat. The Atlantic basin has no tropical cyclones. The Gulf Coast rain is tied to a tropical wave and deep moisture, not to a named storm making landfall.

Looking ahead

The Day 2 convective outlook, issued 12:16 p.m. CDT Saturday and valid 1200 UTC Sunday through 1200 UTC Monday, also carries no severe thunderstorm areas. Severe storms are not forecast for Sunday. An upper low over southern Canada is forecast to intensify as it crosses the northern and eastern Great Lakes, with a leading shortwave moving from the eastern Lakes into the Northeast and a portion of the cold front moving offshore. Scattered thunderstorms are expected ahead of the front and along sea-breeze boundaries, but very weak mid-level lapse rates and little deep-layer shear should keep organization minimal. A sporadic wet microburst is possible near and just offshore the southern Alabama and Florida coasts. Severe potential stays low. Shortwave ridging to the west supports stable conditions over much of the country, with isolated storms possible over a small part of central and southwest Colorado near the higher terrain.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook for Saturday, October 3, 2026, and the 1730 UTC Day 2 outlook; SPC current watches (none valid); SPC mesoscale discussions (none in effect); SPC storm reports for October 3 (no tornado, hail, or wind reports received); Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, updated 0738 UTC Saturday; National Weather Service watches, warnings, and advisories summary; National Hurricane Center position on Hurricane Rachel, 2:00 p.m. MST Saturday. Morning desk: Storm Updates: Gulf Coast Slight Flood, Quiet Severe Pulse — Saturday, October 3, 2026 (Morning).

Disclaimer: Informational only — not an official warning. This is an afternoon desk summary of public National Weather Service, Storm Prediction Center, Weather Prediction Center, and National Hurricane Center products. It is not a forecast for a specific address and not a substitute for local NWS products. Watches and warnings expire and get replaced. Confirm the county or ZIP on weather.gov or spc.noaa.gov before travel or work. Turn around, don’t drown.

October 3, 2026

Storm Updates: Gulf Coast Slight Flood, Quiet Severe Pulse — Saturday, October 3, 2026 (Morning)

This is the Saturday morning Storm Tracker desk for October 3, 2026. Overnight into this morning the organized severe window stayed closed. The Storm Prediction Center 1300 UTC Day 1 convective outlook, updated 8:16 a.m. CDT by Guyer and Dean and valid 1300 UTC Saturday through 1200 UTC Sunday, carries no severe thunderstorm areas. The summary line is short: severe thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. through tonight.

These are county- and ZIP-scale leftovers and a coastal water board, not a mainland hurricane landfall. The live restoration ticket this morning is rain already aimed at the central Gulf Coast and the lower Texas coast, not a new convective watch. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What is live this morning

No convective watches are currently valid. SPC’s watch page, updated 12:35 UTC Saturday, lists none. The most recently issued watch is Severe Thunderstorm Watch 676, a Wednesday, September 30 product for west-central Texas. Nothing from Friday night carried into Saturday morning as a severe thunderstorm or tornado watch.

SPC local storm reports for the 1200 UTC Friday through 1159 UTC Saturday window, and for the new Saturday convective day that opened at 1200 UTC, show no tornado, hail, or wind reports received. The overnight severe hit list is empty. Pre-dawn thunderstorms were ongoing across the Dakotas ahead of a cold front, but the Day 1 discussion keeps severe potential virtually nil even if a stronger gust occurs this afternoon.

What is organized is water. The Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, updated 0738 UTC Saturday and valid 12 UTC Saturday through 12 UTC Sunday, holds a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall for the central Gulf Coast and the lower Texas coast. Forecaster Wegman left the coastal Slight Risk in place and added a higher-end Slight Risk from New Orleans through much of the western Florida Panhandle, citing urban impacts and rainfall volume rather than a change in the underlying front.

Hotspot 1 — Central Gulf Coast

A tropical wave moving across the Gulf is funneling record to near-record atmospheric moisture into much of the Gulf Coast on Saturday. A 15 to 25 knot southerly flow at 850 mb supports numerous showers and thunderstorms moving into the central Gulf Coast today and tonight. Precipitable water is at or above 2.5 inches for many areas. Extensive cloud cover and the October sun should limit instability with any reasonable distance from the coast, so convection that hits the coast is not expected to travel far inland without significant weakening.

The coast can expect 3 to 6 inches of rain today, with locally higher amounts. Flash-flood guidance is high and soils have been dry, but WPC still flags widely scattered flash flooding where that volume lands on urban drainage, especially from New Orleans through the western Florida Panhandle. Mississippi and Alabama coastal counties sit in the same Slight Risk envelope.

Cities and counties to watch: New Orleans, the south shore and east bank parishes, coastal Mississippi from Hancock through Jackson County, Mobile and Baldwin counties in Alabama, and the western Florida Panhandle from Pensacola toward Panama City. Inland rows are a weaker pulse. The front that stretches from the Carolinas southwest toward the Texas coastal plain is the broader thunderstorm focus, but weak vertical shear and modest lapse rates should limit organized severe convection along and south of it.

Restoration read: water first, and only where a warning or a measured street flood actually verifies. Stage extractors, air movers, and moisture meters for urban low spots, underpasses, and slab-on-grade first floors. This is not a wind or hail board. Do not staff a regional roof crew on a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall. Photograph standing water only if the road is already closed and it is safe to be there.

Hotspot 2 — Lower Texas coast

The second Slight Risk remains along the coast of Deep South Texas. Onshore northeasterly flow of the same deep tropical moisture may reach urban areas such as Brownsville. Because this stretch of coast sits roughly perpendicular to the mean flow, WPC expects the onshore push to let convection move a few miles inland before it dissipates. No change was made to the area included in that Slight Risk on the 0738 UTC update.

Friday afternoon’s central Texas story is a different board. The prior desk held a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall on the I-35 corridor from Dallas–Fort Worth toward San Antonio, plus flood advisories in Comal, Guadalupe, and Hays counties and a flood watch that included coastal and inland Jackson County until early Friday evening. Those were time-limited products. They are not the Saturday morning Slight Risk. If a river or areal flood warning is still up in central or south-central Texas this morning, treat it as yesterday’s water still in the channel, not as a new convective watch.

Restoration read: Brownsville and the lower Texas coast are the new water ticket if cells train against the coast. Central Texas and southwest Kansas remain aftermath boards from Thursday and Friday. Do not send the same crew to both stories without checking which county actually has a warning now.

Northern Plains scatter, and what expired

Progressive westerlies cover the northern half of the country through tonight, with a fairly substantial shortwave trough amplifying over the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. As the cold front shifts east, a modest increase in moisture, steepening lapse rates, and increasing lift support isolated thunderstorms, including the pre-dawn activity across the Dakotas. SPC allows that some stronger, convectively enhanced wind gusts could occur this afternoon. Severe potential is expected to remain virtually nil. There is no Marginal, Slight, Enhanced, Moderate, or High Risk on the Day 1 categorical map.

Friday afternoon flash-flood warnings on the Georgia–Florida line, including Clinch and Echols counties in Georgia and Columbia County in Florida, were issued by National Weather Service Jacksonville with expiration times Friday evening. They are not a live Saturday morning warning. A separate river flood warning on the lower Fox River near New Munster, affecting Lake County, Illinois, and Kenosha County, Wisconsin, was continued Friday afternoon until Monday morning for minor flooding. That is a river-stage ticket, not a convective watch.

Tropics — not a U.S. land desk

National Hurricane Center Advisory 25 at 2:00 a.m. MST Saturday places Hurricane Rachel near 19.4°N, 111.8°W, about 270 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California, moving west at 5 mph, with maximum sustained winds of 90 mph and a minimum pressure of 969 mb. Rachel has weakened slightly and continues westward. There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. A turn toward the west-northwest is expected today, with additional slow weakening. Swells will affect the coast of west-central Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula through the weekend and can produce life-threatening surf and rip currents. That is a marine hazard, not a U.S. landfall.

Hurricane Nolo is a Central Pacific system, near 23.3°N, 170.4°W at 2:00 a.m. HST, moving west at 13 mph with winds of 110 mph. It is not a U.S. mainland threat. The Atlantic basin has no tropical cyclones this morning. The Gulf Coast rain is tied to a tropical wave and deep moisture, not to a named storm making landfall.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / WPC / NWS level	Status this morning
Central Gulf Coast (SE LA, coastal MS/AL, western FL Panhandle)	Heavy rain, urban flash flood	WPC Slight, higher-end on the coast	Live today and tonight; 3–6 inches, locally higher
Lower Texas coast (Brownsville)	Onshore heavy rain	WPC Slight	Live; cells may push a few miles inland
Northern Plains / Dakotas	Isolated storms, gusts	No severe area	Pre-dawn storms; severe potential virtually nil
Southeast / Deep South front	General thunderstorms	No severe area	Weak shear, modest lapse rates
Central Texas / southwest Kansas	Yesterday’s water	Aftermath, not a new watch	Verify any leftover flood warning before rolling
Fox River near New Munster	Minor river flood	Flood warning to Monday morning	River stage, not convective
U.S. mainland tropics	None	Rachel west of Baja; no coastal warnings	Swells and rip currents in Mexico only

What this means for restoration teams

Southwest Kansas and central Texas are still yesterday’s water if a flood statement is still valid. Friday’s flash-flood emergency language in Ford County and the I-35 flood advisories do not automatically roll into Saturday. Check the office product before a crew leaves the yard. The empty SPC report page means there is no new hail or tornado survey from overnight.

Next check

The next Day 1 convective outlook is scheduled by 1630 UTC. Day 3, valid Monday, also carries no severe thunderstorm areas, with the more robust low-level moisture staying on the Gulf Coast and winds aloft remaining weak. The afternoon desk should re-read the WPC Slight Risk and any new flood warnings on the central Gulf Coast before treating the morning polygon as still live.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook for Saturday, October 3, 2026; SPC current watches (none valid; last issued watch 676); SPC storm reports for October 2 and October 3 (no tornado, hail, or wind reports received); Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, updated 0738 UTC Saturday; National Weather Service watches, warnings, and advisories summary; National Hurricane Center Advisory 25 on Hurricane Rachel, 2:00 a.m. MST Saturday. Prior desk: Storm Updates: Central Texas Slight Flood, Kansas Water — Friday, October 2, 2026.

October 3, 2026

Storm Updates: Central Texas Slight Flood, Kansas Water — Friday, October 2, 2026

This is the Friday afternoon Storm Tracker desk for October 2, 2026. The organized severe window is still closed. The Storm Prediction Center 2000 UTC Day 1 convective outlook, updated 2:54 p.m. CDT by Karstens and Thornton and valid 2000 UTC Friday through 1200 UTC Saturday, carries no severe thunderstorm areas. The 20Z update made no changes to the 1630 UTC package. The summary line is unchanged: severe thunderstorm potential should remain low through tonight.

What is organized this afternoon is water, not wind. The Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, updated 11:56 a.m. EDT and valid 16 UTC Friday through 12 UTC Saturday, keeps a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall for portions of central Texas, focused on the I-35 corridor from the Dallas–Fort Worth metroplex toward San Antonio. Kansas is an aftermath board: river flood warnings and closed roads from Thursday’s rain, not a new convective watch. Restoration exposure is water first — urban runoff, low crossings, and saturated ground in central Texas, plus standing water and minor river flood in Kansas. Isolated gusty storms are possible on the Mid-Atlantic front. They are not a watch. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What is live this afternoon

No convective watches are currently valid. SPC’s watch page, updated 19:12 UTC Friday, lists none. The most recently issued watch is Severe Thunderstorm Watch 676, a Wednesday, September 30 product for west-central Texas. It is not a Friday product. No mesoscale discussions were in effect on the midday SPC board. Today’s preliminary local storm report board, covering 1200 UTC Friday through 1159 UTC Saturday, has received no tornado, hail, or wind reports as of this desk.

SPC’s 1630 UTC discussion, left in place at 20Z, puts an upper trough progressing east across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, with a surface cold front advancing east-southeast over those regions and the Southeast and southern Plains. Twelve-Z soundings ahead of the front from the Mid-Atlantic to the Southeast showed very poor lapse rates aloft, on the order of 4 to 5.5 C/km in the 700–500 mb layer. That limits instability and updraft strength. Locally gusty winds could still occur with low-topped showers and thunderstorms across the Mid-Atlantic where low- and mid-level west-southwesterly flow is modestly enhanced. Organized clusters capable of severe or damaging wind still look unlikely. Weaker flow across the Tennessee Valley and central Gulf Coast states limits organization, but marginally greater instability supports isolated to scattered thunderstorm coverage through the afternoon along and ahead of the front.

The flood overlay is the live product. WPC’s 16Z update trimmed the Slight Risk out of southern Oklahoma, where rates had eased and probabilities of exceeding flash-flood guidance dropped. The higher-end Slight across central and southern Texas stayed on track. A moist environment and low-level convergence near the front have supported slowly propagating, efficient rain from near Dallas toward the Rio Grande. The I-35 corridor from Dallas–Fort Worth to San Antonio remains the focal point. WPC noted a couple of additional inches already down this morning over areas with flash-flood guidance under half an inch per hour, with another 1 to 3 inches possible today. The Marginal Risk was trimmed on the eastern and northern Tennessee and Ohio Valley edges, where rain is mostly stratiform, and expanded east along the I-10 corridor to include the Jacksonville metro, where guidance shows 2 to 3 inches or more in a tropical air mass with daytime heating.

Hotspot 1 — Dallas–Fort Worth to San Antonio, the Slight

This is the afternoon staffing line. WPC’s previous discussion described the southern end of the front across Texas becoming a slow-moving warm front, with very moist southeasterly flow running into it and 2 to 4 inches already down along I-35 yesterday. The return of the front was expected to drop another 1 to 3 inches from San Antonio and Austin up to the Metroplex. Saturated soils and urban drainage are the reason the Slight stayed in place. Instability is limited, so instantaneous rates should not be extreme, but the slow front still allows training.

National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio issued a Flood Advisory at 2:25 p.m. CDT Friday for Comal, Guadalupe, and Hays counties, in effect until 5:30 p.m. CDT, for flooding caused by excessive rainfall. Farther east, a Flood Watch covering portions of south-central and southeast Texas, including coastal and inland Jackson County, remained in effect until 7 p.m. CDT. Over the prior 24 hours much of that watch area had seen 3 to 6 inches, with a swath of 6 to 8 inches or more from southwestern Montgomery County through western Harris County. The watch text allows embedded training rates of 2 to 4 inches per hour in a deep tropical air mass through this evening.

Restoration read: water, not wind. Extraction and content work in Bexar, Hays, Comal, and Guadalupe counties is a continuation of Thursday’s closed crossings plus whatever this afternoon’s advisory adds. Harris and Montgomery are the heavier 24-hour totals if crews are already in Houston. Do not treat a Flood Advisory as a Flash Flood Emergency. Do treat a flooded low crossing as closed. Turn around, don’t drown.

Hotspot 2 — Kansas water, after the emergency

Thursday’s Flash Flood Emergency for Dodge City and central Ford County expired Thursday evening. It is not a live warning this afternoon. What is still on the board is river and areal flood from rain already down. National Weather Service Goodland extended a Flood Warning at 8:18 a.m. MDT Friday for Greeley and Wichita counties in west-central Kansas until 3 p.m. MDT / 4 p.m. CDT. Emergency management reported multiple roads still flooded. Between 3 and 7 inches had fallen. No additional rainfall was expected. Locations named in the product include Leoti, Tribune, Horace, Selkirk, Lydia, and Marienthal.

National Weather Service Topeka, in a 1:33 p.m. CDT Friday flood statement, extended a Flood Warning for the Solomon River near Glasco until Sunday evening. At 12:47 p.m. CDT the stage was 21.8 feet, with minor lowland flooding described along the river from the Cloud and Mitchell county line toward Niles at 22 feet. Separate Topeka products continued minor flooding on the Little Blue River near Barnes, affecting Marshall and Washington counties, and on the Black Vermillion and Big Blue in Marshall County. Kansas City/Pleasant Hill extended minor flooding on the Missouri River, including St. Joseph, Glasgow, Napoleon, Waverly, Leavenworth, Miami, and Boonville, into the weekend. Lowland flooding, not a convective watch, is the language.

Restoration read: Thursday’s Ford, Geary, Riley, McPherson, and Marion water is still a drying clock if it got inside. Friday’s live Kansas product is closed roads in Greeley and Wichita counties through mid-afternoon, and minor river flood into Saturday and Sunday. Photograph only if it is safe. Do not restaff a Flash Flood Emergency that expired Thursday.

Hotspot 3 — Mid-Atlantic gusts below a risk area

The cold front reaches the coastal Northeast and Mid-Atlantic by this evening and otherwise crosses the Tennessee Valley and lower Mississippi Valley. SPC still allows a couple of stronger storms with gusty winds near and ahead of the front in the Mid-Atlantic if there is enough sun, and isolated to scattered thunderstorms along the front into the Tennessee Valley and central Gulf Coast. Poor lapse rates are why the categorical map stays blank. It is not a Slight Risk and it is not a watch.

Restoration read: isolated tree and service-drop work is possible from the Cumberland Plateau into the Delmarva if a cell gusts. Do not stage a regional wind event on a no-risk outlook. Gulf Coast storms this afternoon are a rain check under the expanded Marginal, not a severe board.

Just hit

Today’s 12Z-cycle LSR board is empty: no tornado, hail, or wind reports received. The damage that already looks like a ticket is Thursday’s water, still visible in Friday flood products. Dodge City’s catastrophic flash-flood language expired Thursday. Goodland’s Friday morning warning is roads still closed in Greeley and Wichita counties after 3 to 7 inches. Austin/San Antonio’s Thursday warning for northern Atascosa, Bexar, and western Wilson counties, with emergency management reporting numerous low-water crossings closed in San Antonio and neighboring towns, also expired Thursday evening. Friday afternoon adds the Hays–Comal–Guadalupe advisory and the Harris–Montgomery watch totals of 6 to 8 inches or more in the wettest swath.

National Hurricane Center, 2:00 p.m. MST Friday: Hurricane Rachel was near 19.3°N, 111.1°W, moving west at 5 mph, minimum pressure 963 mb, still affecting Socorro Island and moving slowly westward, south of Baja California. That is not a U.S. landfall. The Atlantic basin has no tropical cyclones on the 2:00 p.m. EDT Friday outlook. Hurricane Nolo, in the Central Pacific near 23.3°N, 167.8°W, was moving west at 6 mph with maximum sustained winds near 75 mph on the 11:00 a.m. HST advisory. None of those is a mainland restoration staffing problem this afternoon.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS / WPC level	Status this afternoon
Dallas–Fort Worth to San Antonio, I-35	Training rain, urban runoff, 1–3 in more possible	WPC Day 1 Slight excessive rainfall	Live flood pulse
Hays, Comal, Guadalupe counties, TX	Excessive rainfall flooding	Flood Advisory until 5:30 p.m. CDT	Live through late afternoon
Harris / Montgomery / Jackson, TX	3–8 in already; training rates possible	Flood Watch until 7 p.m. CDT	Live through early evening
Greeley and Wichita counties, KS	Roads closed; 3–7 in already	Flood Warning until 4 p.m. CDT	Aftermath; no more rain expected
Solomon, Little Blue, Missouri River	Minor lowland river flood	Flood Warnings into the weekend	River, not convective
Mid-Atlantic / Cumberland Plateau	Isolated gusty storms	SPC Day 1: no severe areas	Possible; not organized
CONUS severe watches	None	No watches valid; WW 676 is Wednesday	Quiet
Atlantic / Rachel / Nolo vs. U.S. mainland	No landfalling cyclone	Rachel near Socorro Island; Atlantic empty; Nolo moving west	Quiet on the mainland coast

What this means for restoration teams

A blank Day 1 severe map is not a blank work board. The live call this afternoon is the Texas Slight: I-35 from the Metroplex to San Antonio, the Hays–Comal–Guadalupe advisory, and the Harris–Montgomery watch totals. Water inside a building from Thursday’s Bexar County warning is still a same-cycle extraction and a 24–48 hour mold clock. New water this afternoon starts a new clock only where it actually got in.

For teams in Ford, Geary, Riley, Greeley, or Wichita counties in Kansas: the convective warnings are expired. Work the water that is already in, and treat closed roads in west-central Kansas as still closed through the Goodland warning window. For teams on the Delmarva and the Cumberland Plateau: a couple of gusty storms are possible later today, below watch criteria. Do not staff Houston and Dodge City as the same event.

What this is not

This is not a severe-thunderstorm watch day, not a derecho, and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. SPC Day 2, issued 10:58 p.m. CDT Thursday and valid 12Z Saturday through 12Z Sunday, also has no severe thunderstorm areas. Saturday’s summary: no severe thunderstorms are expected across the U.S. Rachel is an eastern Pacific hurricane near Socorro Island, moving west, not a Gulf or Atlantic landfall. Nolo is a Central Pacific hurricane moving west. The Atlantic basin is empty.

Looking ahead

The next Day 1 convective outlook is scheduled by 0100 UTC. If the Mid-Atlantic front produces a stronger storm, it will show up as a local warning or a special weather statement, not as a categorical risk area on the current package. The Texas Slight runs through 12 UTC Saturday. Kansas river flood warnings already extend into Saturday night and Sunday evening on several points. Saturday’s convective outlook remains a no-severe map. The flood story does not.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook for Friday, October 2, 2026, and the 0600 UTC Day 2 outlook; SPC current watches (none valid as of 19:12 UTC; last issued Watch 676); SPC preliminary storm reports for October 2 (none received); Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook updated 1556 UTC Friday, valid 16 UTC Friday through 12 UTC Saturday; National Weather Service warning text for Austin/San Antonio, Goodland, Topeka, and Kansas City/Pleasant Hill on Friday; National Hurricane Center Hurricane Rachel and Hurricane Nolo advisories and the Atlantic tropical weather outlook.

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watches, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay. Morning desk for this calendar day: Friday, October 2 morning storm updates.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

October 2, 2026

Storm Updates: Kansas Flood Aftermath, Quiet Severe Pulse — Friday, October 2, 2026 (Morning)

This is the Friday morning Storm Tracker desk for October 2, 2026. Overnight into this morning the organized severe window stayed closed. The Storm Prediction Center 1300 UTC Day 1 convective outlook, updated 7:36 a.m. CDT by Guyer and Dean and valid 1300 UTC Friday through 1200 UTC Saturday, carries no severe thunderstorm areas. The summary line is short: severe thunderstorm potential is low today and tonight.

These are county- and ZIP-scale leftovers, not a mainland hurricane landfall. The live restoration ticket is yesterday’s water still in streets, basements, and low crossings in southwest Kansas and south-central Texas, not a new watch. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What expired overnight, and what is still live

No convective watches are currently valid. SPC’s watch page, updated 11:17 UTC, lists none. The most recently issued watch is Severe Thunderstorm Watch 676, issued 5:10 p.m. CDT Wednesday, September 30, for west-central Texas from near Fort Stockton to east of Abilene. It expired at midnight CDT Wednesday. It is not a Friday product.

No mesoscale discussions are in effect. The most recent is MD 2345, issued 1:32 p.m. CDT Thursday for southwestern Kansas into far northwestern Oklahoma. Watch probability was 5 percent. A couple of severe gusts and perhaps a brief tornado were possible; a watch was not expected. That discussion has expired.

Thursday afternoon flood products have also expired. National Weather Service Dodge City issued a Flash Flood Emergency at 2:32 p.m. CDT for Dodge City and central Ford County, tagged catastrophic damage threat and a particularly dangerous situation, after 3 to 6 inches of rain with another 3 to 5 inches possible. That warning ran until 5:30 p.m. CDT. Separate Dodge City warnings covered southwestern Gray, southern Haskell, northwestern Meade, and northeastern Seward counties until 6:00 p.m. CDT, and northwestern Ford County until 5:15 p.m. CDT. Topeka warnings covered Geary and northwestern Morris until 7:00 p.m. CDT, including Interstate 70 between mile markers 291 and 302 and 310 and 315, and a continuation for Manhattan, Junction City, Wamego, and neighboring Riley, Pottawatomie, Nemaha, and Jackson counties until 5:00 p.m. CDT. Wichita covered northeastern McPherson and northwestern Marion until 8:00 p.m. CDT, considerable threat, with up to 3 inches already down and another 3 possible.

In Texas, Austin/San Antonio kept a Flash Flood Warning until 7:00 p.m. CDT for northern Atascosa, Bexar, and western Wilson counties. Emergency management reported flooding and numerous low-water crossings closed. San Antonio, Schertz, Converse, Pleasanton, Floresville, and neighboring towns were in the polygon. Between 1 and 4 inches had fallen. Shreveport covered northwestern Cherokee and central Smith counties, including Tyler and Jacksonville, until 6:30 p.m. CDT. None of those polygons are still in force this morning.

Hotspot 1 — Dodge City and central Kansas water, after the emergency

The morning desk is an aftermath desk. Dodge City and central Ford County took the highest language NWS uses for flash flooding: emergency, catastrophic, seek higher ground. Junction City, Manhattan, and the McPherson–Marion line were the second story, with I-70 in the Topeka polygon. SPC’s filtered report board for the 12Z Thursday to 12Z Friday window did not log a tornado or hail report. The only wind reports are two ASOS gusts at Garden City (KGCK), 3 miles northwest of Pierceville in Finney County: 58 mph at 1754 UTC and 59 mph at 1802 UTC. That is sub-severe on the usual 58 mph severe-wind threshold only by a mile of rounding, and it is not a damage survey.

Restoration read: water first. Extraction, drying, and content work in Ford County and along the I-70 corridor in Geary and Riley counties are already on the clock from Thursday afternoon, not from a Friday warning. Photograph standing water and closed crossings only if it is safe. Do not treat an expired emergency as a live warning, and do not treat an expired warning as a clean street.

Hotspot 2 — San Antonio and south Texas water, then a Saturday Gulf Coast slight

The Weather Prediction Center Day 1 excessive-rainfall product still posted on the public page this morning is the overnight update, issued 0036 UTC Friday and valid 01Z to 12Z Friday. That window has expired. It held a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall across portions of the southern Plains, with the greatest rates in southern and central Texas and a broader excessive-rainfall threat north into the Plains, the southern Great Lakes, and the far western Ohio Valley. Earlier Thursday discussion kept the Moderate from South Texas toward southeast Oklahoma, with ensemble means of 3 to 6 inches from the Austin–San Antonio metro into South Texas and higher-end local maxima above 8 to 10 inches in the wettest scenarios. A Marginal covered the Florida east coast from Miami to the Space Coast for isolated urban rates over an inch an hour.

The next flood overlay already on the board is Day 2, updated 0749 UTC Friday and valid 12Z Saturday through 12Z Sunday. WPC has a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall for the central Gulf Coast. Broad southerly flow off the Gulf pumps tropical moisture north, with precipitable water expected to exceed 2.5 inches. The Slight was expanded west to include the Houston metro in coordination with the Houston forecast office. New Orleans, Biloxi, Mobile, and Pensacola sit in the same Saturday afternoon language. That is tomorrow’s staffing note, not this morning’s warning.

Restoration read: San Antonio and Bexar County are Thursday’s observed flood, closed crossings, and a 24–48 hour mold clock if water got inside. Houston and the central Gulf Coast are a Saturday watch-item if the Slight verifies. Do not send the same crew to both stories.

Hotspot 3 — Mid-Atlantic gusts that stay below a risk area

SPC’s Friday discussion puts a progressive stream of westerlies over the northern third of the country. An extensive cold front continues east-southeast, reaching the coastal Northeast and Mid-Atlantic by this evening and otherwise crossing the Tennessee Valley and lower Mississippi Valley. Scattered showers and thunderstorms accompany the front and stay common on the Gulf Coast and Southeast.

As the front approaches the coastal Mid-Atlantic and Delmarva later this evening, effective shear of 35 knots or more will exist, and to a lesser extent southwest toward the Appalachians and the Cumberland Plateau. A couple of stronger storms with gusty winds could materialize this afternoon near and ahead of the front if there is enough sun and modest destabilization. Moist-profile, subsidence-related poor lapse rates aloft should preclude organized severe storms. That is why the categorical map is blank. It is not a Slight Risk and it is not a watch.

Restoration read: isolated tree and service-drop work is possible from the Cumberland Plateau into the Delmarva if a cell gusts. Do not stage a regional wind event on a no-risk outlook.

Just hit

Today’s 12Z-cycle LSR board, covering 1200 UTC Friday through 1159 UTC Saturday, is empty: no tornado, hail, or wind reports received. The Thursday 12Z-to-12Z board is the Garden City pair only. The damage that already looks like a ticket is the flood language, not the LSR list: the Dodge City emergency, the Manhattan–Junction City observed flooding, and the San Antonio low-water crossings.

National Hurricane Center, 2:00 a.m. MST Friday advisory on Hurricane Rachel: the center was near 19.4°N, 110.4°W, moving west at 5 mph, maximum sustained winds 115 mph, minimum pressure 955 mb. Rachel has weakened slightly and turned westward, south of Baja California Sur. No coastal watches or warnings are in effect. The Atlantic basin has no tropical cyclones on the 8:00 a.m. EDT Friday outlook. Tropical Storm Nolo is a Central Pacific system, with tropical-storm conditions in the Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument. None of those is a mainland restoration staffing problem this morning.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS / WPC level	Status this morning
Dodge City / Ford County, KS	Flash-flood aftermath, 3–6 in already	Flash Flood Emergency expired 5:30 p.m. CDT Thu	Aftermath; not a live warning
Junction City, Manhattan, McPherson–Marion, KS	Training rain, I-70 crossings	Flash Flood Warnings expired Thu evening	Aftermath / drying clock
San Antonio / Bexar, Atascosa, Wilson	Observed flooding, closed crossings	Flash Flood Warning expired 7 p.m. CDT Thu	Aftermath
Garden City / Finney County, KS	58–59 mph ASOS gusts	SPC LSR only; no watch	Logged; no damage survey on the board
Coastal Mid-Atlantic / Delmarva / Cumberland Plateau	Isolated gusty storms	SPC Day 1: no severe areas	Possible this afternoon; not organized
Houston / central Gulf Coast	Heavy rain Saturday	WPC Day 2 Slight excessive rainfall	Tomorrow, not this morning
CONUS severe watches	None	No watches valid; WW 676 expired Wed midnight	Quiet
Atlantic / Rachel vs. U.S. mainland	No landfalling cyclone	Rachel west of Baja, no watches; Atlantic empty	Quiet on the mainland coast

What this means for restoration teams

A blank Day 1 severe map is not a blank work board. Thursday’s catastrophic flash-flood language in Dodge City and the considerable-threat polygons in central Kansas and Bexar County are the jobs already started. Water inside a building from a Thursday afternoon warning is still a same-cycle extraction and a 24–48 hour mold clock on Friday morning. The Garden City gusts are a local check, not a wind event.

For teams in Ford, Geary, Riley, McPherson, Marion, Bexar, Atascosa, or Wilson counties: confirm the warning has expired, then work the water that is already in. For teams on the Delmarva and the Cumberland Plateau: a couple of gusty storms are possible later today, below watch criteria. For Houston and the central Gulf Coast: Saturday’s Slight is the next flood overlay. Do not staff it as if it were live this morning.

What this is not

This is not a severe-thunderstorm watch day and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. SPC Day 2, issued 10:58 p.m. CDT Thursday and valid 12Z Saturday through 12Z Sunday, also has no severe thunderstorm areas. Saturday’s summary: no severe thunderstorms are expected across the U.S. Isolated lightning is possible over the Upper Midwest with a shortwave, and scattered thunderstorms are expected on the Gulf Coast into the Carolinas with weak shear. The work this morning, if crews are rolling, is Thursday’s water.

Looking ahead

The next Day 1 convective outlook is scheduled by 1630 UTC. If the Mid-Atlantic front produces a stronger storm, it will show up as a local warning or a special weather statement, not as a categorical risk area on the current package. The flood story shifts toward the central Gulf Coast on Saturday under the WPC Day 2 Slight. Rachel stays an eastern Pacific system moving west, away from the Baja coast.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook for Friday, October 2, 2026, and the 0600 UTC Day 2 outlook; SPC current watches (none valid; last issued Watch 676) and current mesoscale discussions (none; last MD 2345); SPC preliminary storm reports for October 1 and October 2; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook valid through 12Z Friday and Day 2 outlook updated 0749 UTC Friday; National Weather Service warning text for Dodge City, Topeka, Wichita, Austin/San Antonio, and Shreveport from Thursday afternoon; National Hurricane Center Hurricane Rachel Advisory 21 and the Atlantic tropical weather outlook.

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watches, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay. Prior desk: Thursday, October 1 afternoon storm updates.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

October 2, 2026