Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Oct 18 Morning

Tropical: None · Severe: Quiet · Flood: Quiet

What Changed

• Compared with the October 17 afternoon pulse and earlier versions of this October 18 morning desk: SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook (latest 0100Z / 7:44 PM CDT Sunday, October 18, 2026, valid 190100Z–191200Z) continues NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST. Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. through tonight. No convective watches or Mesoscale Discussions valid as of latest check.
• WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 0100 UTC Monday, October 19, 2026 / 8:57 PM EDT Sunday, valid 01Z Mon Oct 19–12Z Mon Oct 19) shows the probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance less than 5 percent. Prior Marginal Risk over southeast Florida has fully dropped off the Day 1 outlook.
• Developing storm-force non-tropical low off the southeast U.S. coast continues. NHC Tropical Weather Outlook (800 PM EDT Sunday, October 18, 2026) gives near 0% chance of subtropical development through 48 hours and 40% through 7 days. High winds, coastal flooding, and dangerous surf expected along portions of the East Coast regardless. No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America.
• Residual NWS Flood Warnings remain on the St. Johns River (near Astor, FL; minor occurring, moderate forecast) and Satilla River (Atkinson, GA; minor). Coastal Flood Warnings and High Surf Advisories continue for Ocracoke Island and portions of coastal North Carolina through Tuesday.
• No overnight or recent local storm reports of severe weather. Quiet Pulse holds; water concerns remain residual river and coastal only.

Live Status

As of this Sunday evening update to the morning desk, October 18, 2026 (approximately 8:14 PM PDT / 11:14 PM EDT / 0314Z October 19), the national severe picture remains closed. SPC confirms no severe thunderstorm areas through tonight. An upper-level ridge moves into the southern Appalachians while high pressure remains entrenched from the Gulf Coast states to the Northeast, keeping dry and cool conditions over much of the continental U.S. Isolated thunderstorms possible over south Florida and parts of the Desert Southwest, but no severe threat.

Excessive rainfall risk has cleared from the Day 1 WPC outlook. Residual river Flood Warnings linger in north-central Florida and southeast Georgia from prior rains. Coastal Flood Warnings, High Surf Advisories, and beach hazards persist along the Outer Banks as the developing non-tropical low offshore maintains elevated seas and onshore flow. No named tropical cyclone threatens U.S. land. Eastern Pacific Hurricane Trudy remains offshore Mexico with all coastal warnings discontinued; no U.S. impact.

Pulse Table

Rising Queries

Trends unreachable.

Restoration Read

Residual river flooding in north-central Florida and southeast Georgia remains a near-term water concern. Coastal flooding, high surf, and beach erosion will continue along the Outer Banks and portions of the East Coast with the developing offshore low into early next week. Wind damage potential (trees, power lines) possible with gusty onshore flow along coastal Florida and the Carolinas. No widespread severe or higher-end flood event is underway. Standard quiet-day posture: monitor residual water and coastal hazards; no new severe or high-end flood tickets expected.

What This Is Not

This is a Quiet Pulse. No SPC Slight or higher severe risk, no WPC Moderate or higher excessive rainfall, and no tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf.

Informational only — not an official warning. Always confirm with the latest official forecasts from weather.gov, spc.noaa.gov, wpc.ncep.noaa.gov, and nhc.noaa.gov.