Tag: Florida

Storm Updates: Florida Marginal Flood, Quiet Severe Pulse — Tuesday, October 6, 2026 (Morning)

This is the Tuesday morning Storm Tracker desk for October 6, 2026. Overnight into this morning the organized severe window stayed closed. The Storm Prediction Center 1300 UTC Day 1 convective outlook, updated 7:45 a.m. CDT by Guyer and Dean and valid 1300 UTC Tuesday through 1200 UTC Wednesday, carries no severe thunderstorm areas. The summary line is short: organized severe thunderstorms are unlikely today. The restoration ticket is water on a sagging Florida front, not a watch box. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What is live this morning

No convective watches are currently valid. SPC’s watch page, updated 13:20 UTC Tuesday, lists none. The most recently issued watch is still Severe Thunderstorm Watch 676. No mesoscale discussion is driving a severe box this morning. SPC’s storm-report page for the new convective day, 1200 UTC Tuesday through 1159 UTC Wednesday, shows no tornado, hail, or wind reports received. The prior convective day, 1200 UTC Monday through 1159 UTC Tuesday, also closed with no tornado, hail, or wind reports.

The only severe note on the Day 1 discussion is the central Florida Peninsula. Showers and some thunderstorms are common early today near a residual front from the northern Gulf to the north-central Peninsula. A weak surface low is expected to develop over the northeast Gulf, and some guidance advertises an increase in low- and mid-level flow late today into tonight. Early wind profiles are otherwise weak. The 12z Tampa Bay sounding is the reference. Shear-optimistic scenarios could support brief, transient rotation offshore. Destabilization inland is questionable: thin CAPE and poor mid-level lapse rates, about 5 to 5.5 C/km. SPC kept that below a probability. The next Day 1 outlook is scheduled by 1630 UTC.

Watches that expired overnight versus what is still live

Nothing convective expired overnight because nothing convective was valid. The 0100 UTC Day 1 outlook, written by Squitieri at 7:47 p.m. CDT Monday, already said organized severe thunderstorms were not forecast through tonight, with showers and thunderstorms continuing from the Gulf Coast into the Florida Peninsula and only isolated lightning possible over the Great Basin, southern Colorado and northern New Mexico, and the Upper Mississippi Valley.

The product that did expire was a flood warning, not a watch. National Weather Service Tallahassee issued a Flood Warning for Gadsden County in the Big Bend at 1:53 a.m. EDT, in effect until 5:00 a.m. EDT. At 1:51 a.m. EDT, Doppler radar indicated light rain remaining, with flooding already occurring. Between 7 and 11 inches had fallen, and another half inch to an inch was possible. Towns named in the polygon included Quincy, Midway, Havana, Greensboro, Gretna, Santa Clara, and Quincy Airport. That warning is off the board this morning.

A Special Marine Warning from Tallahassee at 2:48 a.m. CDT covered waters from the Okaloosa-Walton county line to Mexico Beach, 20 to 60 nautical miles offshore, until 4:45 a.m. CDT. Radar indicated a nearly stationary severe thunderstorm 24 nautical miles southeast of Okaloosa Deep Water Reef, or 29 nautical miles southwest of Panama City Beach, capable of waterspouts and gusts of 34 knots or greater. The text said the storm would remain over mainly open waters. That marine warning has expired. It is not a land tornado report, and SPC logged none.

What is still live is a Flood Watch, not a convective watch. National Weather Service Jacksonville at 1:12 a.m. EDT put a Flood Watch in effect from 10 a.m. EDT this morning through this evening for portions of northeast Florida and southeast Georgia. The Florida zones include coastal and inland Duval, coastal and inland Nassau, coastal and inland Flagler, eastern Clay, eastern Putnam, and coastal and inland St. Johns. Georgia coverage is coastal and inland Camden County. Named cities run from Jacksonville, Fernandina Beach, Yulee, and St. Augustine to Palatka, Palm Coast, Orange Park, Kingsland, and Woodbine. The watch calls for heavy rainbands off the Atlantic and locally 3 to 5 inches through the afternoon and early evening.

Hotspot 1 — Florida and far southeastern Georgia

This is the only excessive-rainfall polygon on the Weather Prediction Center Day 1 map. The outlook was updated 0821 UTC Tuesday, valid 12 UTC Tuesday through 12 UTC Wednesday. Wegman’s discussion at 4:30 a.m. EDT keeps a Marginal Risk for much of Florida and far southeastern Georgia. A very slow front sags south from Georgia and Alabama into north Florida. Dry, cool air sits north of it. A tropical, moisture-rich air mass sits south of it. WPC expects a widespread 1 to 3 inches over much of north Florida, with slow-moving tropical showers and embedded thunderstorms. Soils are saturated from prior days. The risk stays Marginal because the terrain is flat, rainfall rates are limited by marginal instability, and swampy ground should handle most of the rain. The isolated flood threat is aimed at urban and poor-drainage spots. Training cells can still produce more widely scattered flash flooding, hit and miss.

That is a step down from Monday afternoon, when the lower Texas coast still carried a small Marginal after a Slight was dropped, and a Marginal still covered the Florida Panhandle, northern and central Florida, and eastern Georgia. This morning the Texas coast is off the Day 1 excessive-rainfall map. Florida holds the ticket.

Restoration read: Gadsden County is the just-hit water desk. Quincy, Havana, and Midway are the towns named in a warning that expired before dawn, with 7 to 11 inches already indicated. Treat interior water found this morning as last night’s rain. The day work is the Jacksonville Flood Watch corridor if Atlantic rainbands sit on Jacksonville, Fernandina Beach, St. Augustine, or Kingsland. Staff pumps and drying equipment for poor drainage. Do not staff it as wind or hail. A Marginal excessive-rain risk is not a Slight severe risk.

Hotspot 2 — leftover river water, not a new pulse

River products already on the board are not the same as a flash-flood warning. National Weather Service St. Louis at 11:32 p.m. CDT Monday kept minor flooding on the Mississippi River at Louisiana, Missouri, stage 15.1 feet against a 15.0-foot flood stage, in effect until Wednesday afternoon, with a fall below flood stage expected this morning. The Missouri River near Chamois remains under a flood warning until Tuesday evening; the Monday morning stage was 17.0 feet at a 17.0-foot flood stage. National Weather Service Kansas City extended a flood warning for the Missouri River at Miami until Wednesday morning, with a fall below the 18.0-foot flood stage expected late this morning.

National Weather Service Quad Cities at 8:14 p.m. CDT Monday extended several Iowa warnings. The Wapsipinicon River near De Witt was at 12.0 feet against an 11.0-foot flood stage, with moderate flooding occurring and a crest of 12.7 feet forecast early Thursday; that warning runs until Monday afternoon, October 12. The Cedar River near Conesville was at 13.5 feet against 13.0, until late Thursday night. The Iowa River was in minor flood at Oakville, Wapello, and Marengo. National Weather Service Mobile holds a flood warning for the Shoal River near Crestview, in effect from Tuesday evening to late Thursday night, with a forecast rise above the 8.0-foot flood stage this evening to a crest of 8.2 feet early Wednesday. The St. Mary’s River at Macclenny, on the Florida-Georgia line, was at 12.7 feet Monday evening against a 12.0-foot flood stage, with a crest of 13.0 feet expected this evening and a warning until Thursday evening. National Weather Service Key West continues a coastal flood statement for the Florida Keys through Tuesday evening for minor saltwater flooding of low streets at high tide.

Restoration read: these are channel and tide tickets from earlier rain, not this morning’s convective pulse. Iowa river bottoms and the Shoal River rise are separate from the Florida front. Do not fold them into a severe claim.

Quiet severe pulse and the Gulf note

There is no Plains or Midwest severe desk this morning. The overnight outlook had surface high pressure setting in from the Great Lakes to the East Coast as an upper trough ejected into the Atlantic. Isolated thunderstorms were the only non-Florida convective note, and they did not produce logged wind, hail, or tornado reports.

Tropics are not a named U.S. land desk this morning. No named cyclone is threatening the mainland or is on the coast from an overnight landfall. The National Hurricane Center 8:00 a.m. EDT Tropical Weather Outlook says showers and thunderstorms are organizing with a broad low over the southwestern Gulf of America, tagged AL92. A tropical depression is anticipated over the next day or so while it drifts east. Formation chances are 90 percent through 48 hours and 90 percent through 7 days. NHC says the disturbance is expected to turn north or northeast toward the northern Gulf Coast by the end of the week, and that it is too early for specific impacts. Interests from the Florida Panhandle to Louisiana should monitor it. A NOAA Gulfstream flight is scheduled later today and an Air Force reconnaissance flight tomorrow. That is a development note, not a landfall warning and not a named-storm file. The tropical-storm language on the national watch page overnight was an eastern Pacific offshore-Mexico waters forecast, not a Gulf Coast product.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / WPC / NWS level	Status this morning
North Florida / far SE Georgia	Training rain, urban flood	WPC Marginal; no SPC severe area	Live; 1–3 inches, locally more
NE Florida / Camden County GA	Atlantic rainbands	JAX Flood Watch 10 a.m.–evening EDT	Live; locally 3–5 inches
Gadsden County FL (Quincy, Havana)	Just-hit flood	Warning expired 5 a.m. EDT	Aftermath; 7–11 inches indicated
Offshore Panama City Beach	Waterspout, marine gusts	Special Marine Warning expired 4:45 a.m. CDT	Open water; no land LSR
Central Florida Peninsula	Storms on residual front	No severe probability	Rotation threat kept offshore
Iowa rivers (Wapsipinicon, Cedar, Iowa)	Minor to moderate river flood	Flood warnings into late week	In channel, not a new pulse
Mississippi at Louisiana MO; Missouri River	Minor river flood	Flood warnings	Near or falling through flood stage
Shoal River near Crestview; St. Mary’s at Macclenny	River rise	Flood warnings	Crests tonight into Wednesday
Florida Keys	Minor saltwater flooding	Coastal flood statement through evening	High-tide streets
Southwestern Gulf (AL92)	Possible tropical depression	NHC 90% / 90%; not named	Monitor; not a land file yet

What this means for restoration teams

There is no wind or hail box to stage against. The morning work, if it is already inside a building, is Gadsden County water from a warning that expired before dawn. The day work is extraction timing if rainbands sit on the Jacksonville watch corridor, plus any poor-drainage street in north Florida that does not clear under the Marginal. Photograph standing water only if the road is clear. Turn around, don’t drown.

A Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall on flat, saturated ground is not the same job as a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms. Staff pumps, moisture meters, and drying equipment. Do not staff tarps for a watch that does not exist. River statements in Iowa, on the Missouri and Mississippi, and on the Shoal and St. Mary’s are separate from today’s front. They are slow water already in the channel.

What this is not

This is not a severe outbreak and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. SPC’s categorical map is empty. No convective watch is valid. No preliminary tornado, hail, or wind report is on yesterday’s or today’s SPC log. AL92 is a high-chance disturbance that has not been named and has not put a tropical watch on the northern Gulf Coast. The local-storm pattern this desk should staff is training rain on a sagging Florida front, a just-hit Big Bend flood warning that expired, and leftover river water.

Looking ahead

SPC’s next Day 1 outlook is scheduled by 1630 UTC. WPC’s Day 1 window runs through 12 UTC Wednesday. The front stays the story across Florida. If AL92 becomes a tropical depression and turns toward the northern Gulf Coast later in the week, that becomes a tropical desk only after NHC names it or puts a watch on the coast. Until then it is a development note, not an overnight hit.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook for Tuesday, October 6, 2026, and the current convective watch page (no watches valid, stamp 13:20 UTC); SPC today’s storm reports and yesterday’s storm reports; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, updated 0821 UTC; National Weather Service watch, warning, and advisory text for Tallahassee, Jacksonville, St. Louis, Kansas City, Quad Cities, Mobile, and Key West; National Hurricane Center Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook, 8:00 a.m. EDT Tuesday. Prior desk: Monday afternoon, October 5 — Texas Coast Marginal Flood, Quiet Severe Pulse.

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook and LSRs, and the WPC excessive-rainfall page for the flood overlay.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

October 6, 2026

Storm Updates: Texas Coast Slight Flood, Quiet Severe Pulse — Monday, October 5, 2026 (Morning)

This is the Monday morning Storm Tracker desk for October 5, 2026. Overnight into this morning the organized severe window stayed closed. The Storm Prediction Center 1300 UTC Day 1 convective outlook, updated 7:32 a.m. CDT by Guyer and Dean and valid 1300 UTC Monday through 1200 UTC Tuesday, carries no severe thunderstorm areas. The summary line is short: severe thunderstorms are not expected today.

The larger restoration ticket is water, not a watch box. The Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, updated 0746 UTC and discussed at 3:57 a.m. EDT by Wegman, keeps a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall for the southern lower Texas coast, including Brownsville and coastal Willacy and Cameron counties. Southeast Alabama took radar-indicated flash flood warnings overnight that have since expired. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What is live this morning

No convective watches are currently valid. SPC’s watch page, updated 12:26 UTC Monday, lists none. The most recently issued watch is still Severe Thunderstorm Watch 676, a Wednesday, September 30 product for west-central Texas. No mesoscale discussion is driving a severe box this morning. SPC’s storm-report page for the new convective day, 1200 UTC Monday through 1159 UTC Tuesday, shows no tornado, hail, or wind reports received.

The pattern behind the quiet severe desk is progressive northwesterly flow over the northern tier of the country and Canada, with a prominent upper trough shifting east over Quebec. Surface high pressure and large-scale subsidence generally prevail east of the Mississippi River. Surface troughing is becoming established across the Great Plains, but with limited moisture. Along the Gulf Coast and Florida, thunderstorms are expected near and south of a southward-shifting frontal boundary. Isolated low-topped thunderstorms may occur today from northern New York into northern New England as a cold front shifts east. SPC notes a few convectively enhanced wind gusts might occur there as lapse rates steepen diurnally. That is a local gust note, not a risk area.

Watches that expired overnight versus what is still live

Nothing convective expired overnight because nothing convective was valid. The overnight Day 1 outlook at 0100 UTC, written by Squitieri at 8:37 p.m. CDT Sunday, already said severe thunderstorms were not expected across the continental United States through 1200 UTC. Lightning coverage along the sagging Southeast front was expected to decrease with nocturnal cooling, and a plume of marginal buoyancy from Colorado into New Mexico was expected to wane.

The products that did expire were flash flood warnings, not watches. National Weather Service Birmingham extended a Flash Flood Warning for northern Barbour County until 2:30 a.m. CDT. At 11:52 p.m. CDT Sunday, radar indicated 4 to 6 inches already down, with another 2 to 4 inches possible. The polygon included Clayton, Comer, Spring Hill, Hawkinsville, and U.S. 82 between mile markers 219 and 235. National Weather Service Tallahassee, issued by Jacksonville, put a Flash Flood Warning on central Coffee County and northwestern Dale County until 4:15 a.m. CDT. At 1:20 a.m. CDT, radar indicated 1 to 3 inches down and up to 2 inches more, covering Elba, Fort Rucker, Enterprise, Ozark, New Brockton, and Ariton. Both of those warnings are off the board this morning.

A Special Marine Warning from Tallahassee, also issued by Jacksonville, covered Apalachee Bay and coastal waters from the Suwannee River to Apalachicola until 3:30 a.m. EDT for a radar-indicated waterspout and gusts of 34 knots or greater. The cell was 12 nautical miles southeast of V Tower, moving east at 5 knots. That marine warning has expired. It was a coastal water ticket, not a land tornado report.

What is still live is flood-watch language, not a convective watch. National Weather Service Mobile, issued by New Orleans at 9:58 p.m. CDT Sunday, extended a Flood Watch through Monday morning, until 1700 UTC, for portions of southwest Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle, including Baldwin and Mobile counties and the Destin to Fort Walton Beach coast. National Weather Service Tallahassee, issued by Jacksonville Sunday afternoon, holds a Flood Watch through Monday evening for southeast Alabama including Geneva and Houston counties, the Florida Panhandle, and parts of south Georgia. The Tallahassee text calls for another 2 to 4 inches, locally up to 6, especially along the Emerald and Forgotten coasts, and notes south-central Georgia is already primed from Friday rain. National Weather Service Jacksonville at 2:17 a.m. EDT extended a Flood Watch through this evening for portions of north Florida and southeast Georgia, including Baker, coastal Duval, coastal and inland Nassau, and eastern Hamilton counties, with listed towns running from Fernandina Beach and Hilliard toward Alma and Woodbine.

Hotspot 1 — Lower Texas coast

This is the only Slight Risk on the WPC Day 1 map. A stalled front remains draped across almost the entire Gulf Coast, and the piece near the lower Texas coast is stationary. Flow on both sides of the front is out of the northeast. Precipitable water along the front is above 2.25 inches, and sea-surface temperatures in the upper 80s are feeding slow-moving, training showers and thunderstorms that are moving southwest along the front into the coast. WPC says rainfall yesterday alone ranged from 3 to 6 inches, with another 2 to 4 inches expected today.

Wegman kept the Slight Risk specifically for coastal Willacy and Cameron counties, including Brownsville, and noted that outside urban pockets on South Padre Island and in Brownsville, much of the area is flat with sandy soils that are difficult to flood even with this volume. That is an urban and poor-drainage ticket, not a basin-wide river emergency.

Restoration read: stage extraction and drying for low-lying streets, underpasses, and first-floor commercial space in Brownsville and on South Padre, not a regional roof-and-wind deployment. Yesterday’s 3 to 6 inches is already a wet-drywall clock in the places that did not drain. Photograph standing water only if the road is clear. Turn around, don’t drown.

Hotspot 2 — Southeast Alabama into the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend

The same front extends across far southern Alabama, Georgia, and north Florida, but here it has been moving south, slowly. WPC left this corridor in a Marginal Risk. The heaviest rains are aimed at the Florida Panhandle near Apalachicola and the Big Bend. Forecast totals for the day run 3 to 6 inches in those regions. Forecasters kept the risk at Marginal because the area is relatively flat, sparsely populated in the core, and full of swamp that can take water. Urban flash-flood concern stays along I-10 from Pensacola through Tallahassee into Jacksonville, where storms are not expected to move very far.

Overnight just-hit reports are the Barbour, Coffee, and Dale warnings. Those polygons are off, but the Flood Watches are not. Mobile’s watch runs through Monday morning. Tallahassee’s runs through Monday evening. That is the handoff from a warning that already verified on radar to a watch that still covers the next round.

Restoration read: southeast Alabama is a just-hit water desk. Enterprise, Ozark, Elba, and Clayton are the towns named in the expired warnings. Treat interior water found this morning as last night’s rain, not a new severe claim. The Panhandle and Big Bend are today’s training-rain desk if cells sit on I-10 or the Forgotten Coast. Do not staff it as wind or hail.

Quiet severe pulse and leftover river water

Northern New York into northern New England is the only place SPC mentioned enhanced gusts, and only as isolated low-topped storms on the cold front. No risk area, no watch, no reports. The Plains stay moisture-starved under the surface trough. East of the Mississippi, high pressure is the dominant story away from the Gulf front.

River products already on the board are not the same as a flash-flood warning. National Weather Service St. Louis at 10:30 p.m. CDT Sunday kept minor flooding on the Mississippi River at Louisiana, Missouri, stage 15.2 feet against a 15.0-foot flood stage, in effect until Wednesday morning, and at Clarksville, stage 25.2 feet against 25.0, until Tuesday evening. National Weather Service Quad Cities replaced a river flood watch with a flood warning for minor flooding on the Wapsipinicon River near Anamosa Shaw Road from Monday morning into Tuesday morning. Those are channel tickets from earlier rain, not this morning’s convective pulse.

Tropics are not a U.S. land desk this morning. No named cyclone is threatening the mainland or is on the coast from an overnight landfall. The National Hurricane Center Atlantic discussion at 1215 UTC notes a front stalling over the northern Gulf and says broad low pressure may develop over the far southwest Gulf Tuesday night into Wednesday. Environmental conditions are only marginally conducive; a tropical depression could form in the second half of the week while the system drifts east, then turns north. That is a development note, not a landfall warning. The hurricane-warning language on the national watch page this morning is offshore Mexico in the eastern Pacific, not a Gulf Coast product.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / WPC / NWS level	Status this morning
Lower Texas coast (Cameron, Willacy, Brownsville)	Training rain, urban flood	WPC Slight; no SPC severe area	Live; another 2–4 inches after 3–6 yesterday
SE Alabama (Barbour, Coffee, Dale)	Just-hit flash flood	Warnings expired 2:30–4:15 a.m. CDT	Aftermath; 1–6 inches indicated overnight
SW Alabama / western FL Panhandle	Additional heavy rain	Flood Watch through Monday morning	Live until about noon CDT
Emerald / Forgotten Coast, Big Bend	Training rain, isolated flash flood	WPC Marginal; Flood Watch through Monday evening	Live; 3–6 inches possible, locally 6
North Florida / SE Georgia	Excessive rainfall	JAX Flood Watch through this evening	Live
Northern NY / northern New England	Isolated gusty storms	No severe area	Low-topped; no watch
Mississippi at Louisiana MO / Clarksville; Wapsipinicon	Minor river flood	Flood warnings	In channel, not a new convective ticket

What this means for restoration teams

There is no wind or hail box to stage against. The morning work, if it is already inside a building, is southeast Alabama water from warnings that expired before dawn, plus any Brownsville or South Padre street that did not clear after yesterday’s 3 to 6 inches. The day work is extraction timing on the lower Texas coast and a flood-watch posture from Mobile through the Panhandle into north Florida and south Georgia.

A Slight Risk of excessive rainfall on sandy coastal plain is not the same job as a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms. Staff pumps, moisture meters, and drying equipment. Do not staff tarps for a watch that does not exist. River statements on the Mississippi and the Wapsipinicon are separate from the Gulf front; they are slow water already in the channel.

What this is not

This is not a severe outbreak and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. SPC’s categorical map is empty. No convective watch is valid. No preliminary tornado, hail, or wind report is on today’s SPC log. The Gulf development note is a midweek possibility over the southwest Gulf, not an overnight hit. The local-storm pattern this desk should staff is training rain on a stalled coastal front and leftover flood-watch counties from last night’s Alabama warnings.

Looking ahead

SPC’s next Day 1 outlook is scheduled by 1630 UTC. WPC’s Day 1 window runs through 12 UTC Tuesday. The front stays the story: stationary on the lower Texas coast, still sagging south across the Southeast. If the southwest Gulf low organizes later in the week, that becomes a tropical desk only after NHC names it or puts a watch on the coast. Until then it is a moisture source for the same stalled boundary.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook for Monday, October 5, 2026, and the current convective watch page (no watches valid, stamp 12:26 UTC); SPC today’s storm reports; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, updated 0746 UTC; National Weather Service watch, warning, and advisory text for Birmingham, Tallahassee, Jacksonville, Mobile, St. Louis, and Quad Cities. Prior desk: Sunday afternoon, October 4 — Florida Panhandle Marginal, Texas Coast Moderate Rain.

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook and LSRs, and the WPC excessive-rainfall page for the flood overlay.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

October 5, 2026

Storm Updates: Florida Panhandle Marginal, Texas Coast Moderate Rain — Sunday, October 4, 2026 (Morning)

This is the Sunday morning Storm Tracker desk for October 4, 2026. Overnight into this morning the organized severe window stayed small, but it is no longer empty. The Storm Prediction Center 1300 UTC Day 1 convective outlook, updated 7:43 a.m. CDT by Guyer and Dean and valid 1300 UTC Sunday through 1200 UTC Monday, carries a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms across the coastal Florida Panhandle. The summary line is short: a few rotating thunderstorms are possible today across the coastal Florida Panhandle.

The larger restoration ticket is water, not a watch box. The Weather Prediction Center raised a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall for the lower Texas coast, and National Weather Service flash flood warnings were already in effect before 9 a.m. CDT on the Emerald Coast. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What is live this morning

No convective watches are currently valid. SPC’s watch page, updated 12:04 UTC Sunday, lists none. The most recently issued watch is still Severe Thunderstorm Watch 676, a Wednesday, September 30 product for west-central Texas. Nothing from Saturday night carried into Sunday morning as a severe thunderstorm or tornado watch. The 0100 UTC Day 1 outlook Saturday night, written by Marsh, had no severe areas at all. The Marginal was added on the 0600 UTC cycle and kept on the 1300 UTC update.

SPC local storm reports for the 1200 UTC Saturday through 1159 UTC Sunday window, and for the new Sunday convective day that opened at 1200 UTC, show no tornado, hail, or wind reports received. The overnight severe hit list is empty. What verified overnight and into the morning is rain, not a wind or hail survey.

The Marginal area on the 1300 UTC graphic covers about 7,329 square miles and about 828,936 people. Larger population centers listed by SPC include Pensacola, Panama City, Ferry Pass, Wright, and Brent. The 0600 UTC probabilistic table placed a 2 percent tornado risk on that same coastal strip and listed no damaging-wind or large-hail areas. The 1300 UTC discussion does not add a wind or hail probability. The threat, if it verifies, is a brief, transient low-level circulation near the coast.

Hotspot 1 — Florida Panhandle and the central Gulf Coast

A stalled or slow-southeastward-moving surface front sits across the Southeast and Deep South. South of it, precipitable water is in excess of 2 inches, and the 0600 UTC discussion cited mean precipitable water near 2.5 inches on the Florida Panhandle with mean MUCAPE generally 500 J/kg or less. Scattered showers and thunderstorms were already common early today south of the front, including the northern Gulf. SPC notes some guidance, most notably recent NAM runs, for weak offshore surface low development and a related increase in low-level flow and storm-relative helicity. If that trend holds, storms near the coast can spin up briefly. The related hazard is a waterspout or a brief tornado, mainly near the coast.

That marine piece is already on the warning map. National Weather Service Tallahassee, issued by Jacksonville, put special marine warnings up before 8 a.m. CDT for coastal waters from the Okaloosa–Walton line toward Mexico Beach, and again toward Apalachee Bay, for waterspouts and wind gusts of 34 knots or greater. Mobile, issued by New Orleans, had a special marine warning for coastal waters from the Okaloosa–Walton line to Pensacola. Those are marine products. They are not a land tornado warning, and none was on the national summary at the morning scan.

Water is the product that is already warning, not watching. At 6:52 a.m. CDT, National Weather Service Mobile, issued by New Orleans, issued a flash flood warning for southeastern Okaloosa County until 9:45 a.m. CDT. Radar indicated 2 to 4 inches already down, with another 1 to 3 inches possible. Locations named in the warning include Wright, Fort Walton Beach, Niceville, Destin, Eglin Air Force Base, Valparaiso, and Mary Esther. At 7:38 a.m. CDT, Tallahassee, issued by Jacksonville, issued a flash flood warning for west-central Bay County and southwestern Walton County until 10:45 a.m. CDT. Radar indicated 1 to 3 inches already down, with another 1 to 2 inches possible. Locations include Santa Rosa Beach, Freeport, Grayton Beach, Seaside, Sandestin, Inlet Beach, and Miramar Beach.

Flood watches frame that warning. Mobile’s flood watch remains through this evening for Mobile and Baldwin counties in southwest Alabama and for Escambia, Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa counties in northwest Florida, including Pensacola, Gulf Shores, and Fort Walton Beach. Additional rainfall of 4 to 6 inches is expected, with locally higher amounts up to 10 inches. Tallahassee’s flood watch remains through Monday morning for Walton, Holmes, Washington, Bay, and Gulf counties, and a separate watch through Monday morning covers southeast Alabama (Geneva and Houston), the Florida Big Bend including Tallahassee, and south-central Georgia including Albany, Thomasville, and Valdosta. Additional totals of 2 to 6 inches are forecast, locally up to 10 inches along the Emerald Coast. New Orleans holds a flood watch through this evening for coastal Mississippi (Hancock, Harrison, and Jackson counties, including Gulfport and Biloxi) and for southeast Louisiana including New Orleans, with an additional 3 to 5 inches possible. Jacksonville has a flood watch from noon today through Monday morning for the Georgia coast, where prior rain has already cut flash-flood guidance.

WPC’s Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, updated 0738 UTC Sunday and valid 12 UTC Sunday through 12 UTC Monday, kept an enhanced Slight Risk from Mobile Bay east to the Emerald and Forgotten coasts and deferred a Moderate upgrade there after coordination with offices Mobile and Tallahassee. Forecaster Weiss cited 2 to 3 inch-per-hour rates, precipitable water above 2.25 to 2.5 inches, and training where Corfidi vectors collapse. Some areas can see 3 to 5 inches today, locally as much as 8 inches. A separate Georgia-coast signal is centered near Savannah, with compromised flash-flood guidance of 1 to 2 inches in three hours.

Restoration read: staff the warning, not the Marginal polygon. Okaloosa, Walton, and Bay are the live water board this morning. Pensacola to Panama City is the brief-tornado strip if the offshore low tightens low-level shear. This is wet drywall, flooring, and a short mold clock where water enters. It is not a regional roof or hail crew. Do not treat a special marine warning as a land damage survey.

Hotspot 2 — Lower Texas coast

The highest excessive-rain category on the board is not the Panhandle. WPC raised a targeted Moderate Risk for the lower Texas coast between Brownsville and Corpus Christi after coordination with offices Brownsville and Corpus Christi. Convection developing over the Gulf is expected to track southwest into moist inflow and push onshore repeatedly. Rates of 2 to 3 inches per hour could produce local maxima in excess of 10 inches. Both the REFS and HREF indicate a greater than 50 percent chance of at least 8 inches. Recent rain has already been significant in spots: 2 to 4 inches in the last 12 hours, and up to 8 inches in the last three days. Sandy soils keep flash-flood guidance elevated, but WPC still flags locally significant impacts if the core crosses urban areas or more sensitive soils.

A Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall was joined along the immediate western Gulf Coast for possible onshore drift of heavy rain through the morning and afternoon. That is a lower bar than the Moderate strip from Brownsville to Corpus Christi. A coastal flood advisory is also in effect until 2 p.m. CDT for minor coastal flooding on the Aransas, Kleberg, and Nueces islands. That is tide and surge on the islands, not a convective watch.

Restoration read: Brownsville, Corpus Christi, and the communities between them are the new volume ticket. Saturday’s Slight Risk on this same coast is now a Moderate. Stage for street flooding and first-floor water only where a warning or a closed road verifies. Do not send the Panhandle crew and the Texas coast crew as if they are one storm.

What expired, and what is still just a river

Saturday’s Day 1 outlook had no severe areas, and Saturday’s storm-report page stayed empty. The Gulf Coast Slight Risk of excessive rain from Saturday is the parent of this morning’s watches, not a separate event. Iowa river flood warnings continued early Sunday on the Iowa River near Tama, Black Hawk Creek at Hudson, the South Skunk River at Colfax, and the Des Moines and Raccoon rivers at Des Moines. Those are river-stage tickets. They are not a convective watch and not a new storm-damage board.

Tropics — not a U.S. land desk

National Hurricane Center Advisory 29 at 2:00 a.m. MST Sunday places Hurricane Rachel near 20.2°N, 113.2°W, moving west-northwest at 5 mph, with maximum sustained winds of 100 mph and a minimum pressure of 968 mb. Rachel strengthened a little and remains well southwest of Baja California. The hurricane warnings on the morning national summary are offshore-waters products for the eastern Pacific within 250 nautical miles of Mexico, including waters near the Revillagigedo Islands and Cabo San Lucas. That is not a U.S. landfall.

Hurricane Nolo, at 11:00 p.m. HST Saturday, was near 23.6°N, 176.7°W, moving west at 18 mph with winds of 110 mph, and is expected to cross the International Date Line on Sunday. It is not a U.S. mainland threat. The Atlantic basin has no tropical cyclones this morning. The Gulf rain is tied to the stalled front and deep moisture, not to a named storm making landfall.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / WPC / NWS level	Status this morning
Coastal Florida Panhandle	Brief tornado, waterspout	SPC Marginal; 2% tornado on 0600 UTC	Live today; no convective watch
Okaloosa, Walton, Bay counties	Flash flood	Flash flood warnings to mid-morning	Live; 1–4 inches already indicated
Mobile Bay to Emerald Coast	Training heavy rain	WPC Slight, upgrade deferred; flood watches	4–6 inches more, locally 8–10
SE Louisiana, coastal Mississippi	Heavy rain	Flood watch through this evening	Additional 3–5 inches possible
Lower Texas coast	Extreme rain rates	WPC Moderate	Local maxima above 10 inches possible
Georgia coast near Savannah	Repeated heavy rain	Flood watch noon through Monday morning	Soils already partly saturated
U.S. mainland tropics	None	Atlantic clear; Rachel SW of Baja	Offshore Mexico warnings only

What this means for restoration teams

There is still no wind-driven roof board on the Day 1 outlook. The Marginal is a coastal spin-up risk, not a hail or widespread damaging-wind risk. A 2-to-3 inch-per-hour rate is wet drywall and a 24-to-48-hour mold clock only where water actually enters. High flash-flood guidance on sandy Texas soils means part of the Moderate Risk will not produce a claim. Staff the warning polygon in Okaloosa, Walton, and Bay first. Treat Brownsville to Corpus Christi as the volume board if cells come onshore this afternoon. The empty SPC report page means there is no new hail or tornado survey from overnight.

Next check

The next Day 1 convective outlook is scheduled by 1630 UTC. Day 2, valid Monday, carries no severe thunderstorm areas. The afternoon desk should re-read the WPC Moderate Risk, any new flash flood warnings on the Panhandle, and whether the brief-tornado trend still holds before treating this morning polygon as still live. Flood watches on the Panhandle run through Monday morning. Mobile, New Orleans, and the lower Texas coast are today’s shorter fuse.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook for Sunday, October 4, 2026; SPC current watches (none valid; last issued watch 676); SPC storm reports for October 3 and October 4 (no tornado, hail, or wind reports received); Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, updated 0738 UTC Sunday; National Weather Service watches, warnings, and advisories summary, including flash flood warnings for Okaloosa County and for Bay and Walton counties; National Hurricane Center Advisory 29 on Hurricane Rachel, 2:00 a.m. MST Sunday. Prior desk: Storm Updates: Gulf Coast Slight Flood, Quiet Severe Pulse — Saturday, October 3, 2026.

Disclaimer: This is a morning desk summary of public National Weather Service, Storm Prediction Center, Weather Prediction Center, and National Hurricane Center products. It is not a warning, not a forecast for a specific address, and not a substitute for local NWS products. Watches and warnings expire and get replaced. Confirm the county or ZIP on weather.gov before travel or work.

October 4, 2026

Storm Updates: Gulf Coast Slight Flood, Quiet Severe Pulse — Saturday, October 3, 2026 (Morning)

This is the Saturday morning Storm Tracker desk for October 3, 2026. Overnight into this morning the organized severe window stayed closed. The Storm Prediction Center 1300 UTC Day 1 convective outlook, updated 8:16 a.m. CDT by Guyer and Dean and valid 1300 UTC Saturday through 1200 UTC Sunday, carries no severe thunderstorm areas. The summary line is short: severe thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. through tonight.

These are county- and ZIP-scale leftovers and a coastal water board, not a mainland hurricane landfall. The live restoration ticket this morning is rain already aimed at the central Gulf Coast and the lower Texas coast, not a new convective watch. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What is live this morning

No convective watches are currently valid. SPC’s watch page, updated 12:35 UTC Saturday, lists none. The most recently issued watch is Severe Thunderstorm Watch 676, a Wednesday, September 30 product for west-central Texas. Nothing from Friday night carried into Saturday morning as a severe thunderstorm or tornado watch.

SPC local storm reports for the 1200 UTC Friday through 1159 UTC Saturday window, and for the new Saturday convective day that opened at 1200 UTC, show no tornado, hail, or wind reports received. The overnight severe hit list is empty. Pre-dawn thunderstorms were ongoing across the Dakotas ahead of a cold front, but the Day 1 discussion keeps severe potential virtually nil even if a stronger gust occurs this afternoon.

What is organized is water. The Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, updated 0738 UTC Saturday and valid 12 UTC Saturday through 12 UTC Sunday, holds a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall for the central Gulf Coast and the lower Texas coast. Forecaster Wegman left the coastal Slight Risk in place and added a higher-end Slight Risk from New Orleans through much of the western Florida Panhandle, citing urban impacts and rainfall volume rather than a change in the underlying front.

Hotspot 1 — Central Gulf Coast

A tropical wave moving across the Gulf is funneling record to near-record atmospheric moisture into much of the Gulf Coast on Saturday. A 15 to 25 knot southerly flow at 850 mb supports numerous showers and thunderstorms moving into the central Gulf Coast today and tonight. Precipitable water is at or above 2.5 inches for many areas. Extensive cloud cover and the October sun should limit instability with any reasonable distance from the coast, so convection that hits the coast is not expected to travel far inland without significant weakening.

The coast can expect 3 to 6 inches of rain today, with locally higher amounts. Flash-flood guidance is high and soils have been dry, but WPC still flags widely scattered flash flooding where that volume lands on urban drainage, especially from New Orleans through the western Florida Panhandle. Mississippi and Alabama coastal counties sit in the same Slight Risk envelope.

Cities and counties to watch: New Orleans, the south shore and east bank parishes, coastal Mississippi from Hancock through Jackson County, Mobile and Baldwin counties in Alabama, and the western Florida Panhandle from Pensacola toward Panama City. Inland rows are a weaker pulse. The front that stretches from the Carolinas southwest toward the Texas coastal plain is the broader thunderstorm focus, but weak vertical shear and modest lapse rates should limit organized severe convection along and south of it.

Restoration read: water first, and only where a warning or a measured street flood actually verifies. Stage extractors, air movers, and moisture meters for urban low spots, underpasses, and slab-on-grade first floors. This is not a wind or hail board. Do not staff a regional roof crew on a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall. Photograph standing water only if the road is already closed and it is safe to be there.

Hotspot 2 — Lower Texas coast

The second Slight Risk remains along the coast of Deep South Texas. Onshore northeasterly flow of the same deep tropical moisture may reach urban areas such as Brownsville. Because this stretch of coast sits roughly perpendicular to the mean flow, WPC expects the onshore push to let convection move a few miles inland before it dissipates. No change was made to the area included in that Slight Risk on the 0738 UTC update.

Friday afternoon’s central Texas story is a different board. The prior desk held a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall on the I-35 corridor from Dallas–Fort Worth toward San Antonio, plus flood advisories in Comal, Guadalupe, and Hays counties and a flood watch that included coastal and inland Jackson County until early Friday evening. Those were time-limited products. They are not the Saturday morning Slight Risk. If a river or areal flood warning is still up in central or south-central Texas this morning, treat it as yesterday’s water still in the channel, not as a new convective watch.

Restoration read: Brownsville and the lower Texas coast are the new water ticket if cells train against the coast. Central Texas and southwest Kansas remain aftermath boards from Thursday and Friday. Do not send the same crew to both stories without checking which county actually has a warning now.

Northern Plains scatter, and what expired

Progressive westerlies cover the northern half of the country through tonight, with a fairly substantial shortwave trough amplifying over the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. As the cold front shifts east, a modest increase in moisture, steepening lapse rates, and increasing lift support isolated thunderstorms, including the pre-dawn activity across the Dakotas. SPC allows that some stronger, convectively enhanced wind gusts could occur this afternoon. Severe potential is expected to remain virtually nil. There is no Marginal, Slight, Enhanced, Moderate, or High Risk on the Day 1 categorical map.

Friday afternoon flash-flood warnings on the Georgia–Florida line, including Clinch and Echols counties in Georgia and Columbia County in Florida, were issued by National Weather Service Jacksonville with expiration times Friday evening. They are not a live Saturday morning warning. A separate river flood warning on the lower Fox River near New Munster, affecting Lake County, Illinois, and Kenosha County, Wisconsin, was continued Friday afternoon until Monday morning for minor flooding. That is a river-stage ticket, not a convective watch.

Tropics — not a U.S. land desk

National Hurricane Center Advisory 25 at 2:00 a.m. MST Saturday places Hurricane Rachel near 19.4°N, 111.8°W, about 270 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California, moving west at 5 mph, with maximum sustained winds of 90 mph and a minimum pressure of 969 mb. Rachel has weakened slightly and continues westward. There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. A turn toward the west-northwest is expected today, with additional slow weakening. Swells will affect the coast of west-central Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula through the weekend and can produce life-threatening surf and rip currents. That is a marine hazard, not a U.S. landfall.

Hurricane Nolo is a Central Pacific system, near 23.3°N, 170.4°W at 2:00 a.m. HST, moving west at 13 mph with winds of 110 mph. It is not a U.S. mainland threat. The Atlantic basin has no tropical cyclones this morning. The Gulf Coast rain is tied to a tropical wave and deep moisture, not to a named storm making landfall.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / WPC / NWS level	Status this morning
Central Gulf Coast (SE LA, coastal MS/AL, western FL Panhandle)	Heavy rain, urban flash flood	WPC Slight, higher-end on the coast	Live today and tonight; 3–6 inches, locally higher
Lower Texas coast (Brownsville)	Onshore heavy rain	WPC Slight	Live; cells may push a few miles inland
Northern Plains / Dakotas	Isolated storms, gusts	No severe area	Pre-dawn storms; severe potential virtually nil
Southeast / Deep South front	General thunderstorms	No severe area	Weak shear, modest lapse rates
Central Texas / southwest Kansas	Yesterday’s water	Aftermath, not a new watch	Verify any leftover flood warning before rolling
Fox River near New Munster	Minor river flood	Flood warning to Monday morning	River stage, not convective
U.S. mainland tropics	None	Rachel west of Baja; no coastal warnings	Swells and rip currents in Mexico only

What this means for restoration teams

There is no wind-driven roof board on the Day 1 outlook. A 3-to-6-inch coastal rain is wet drywall, flooring, and a 24-to-48-hour mold clock only where water actually enters. High flash-flood guidance and dry soils mean many miles of the Slight Risk will not produce a claim. Staff the warning, not the polygon. Urban New Orleans through the western Florida Panhandle is the higher-end piece of the same Slight Risk because of drainage, not because a watch is up.

Southwest Kansas and central Texas are still yesterday’s water if a flood statement is still valid. Friday’s flash-flood emergency language in Ford County and the I-35 flood advisories do not automatically roll into Saturday. Check the office product before a crew leaves the yard. The empty SPC report page means there is no new hail or tornado survey from overnight.

Next check

The next Day 1 convective outlook is scheduled by 1630 UTC. Day 3, valid Monday, also carries no severe thunderstorm areas, with the more robust low-level moisture staying on the Gulf Coast and winds aloft remaining weak. The afternoon desk should re-read the WPC Slight Risk and any new flood warnings on the central Gulf Coast before treating the morning polygon as still live.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook for Saturday, October 3, 2026; SPC current watches (none valid; last issued watch 676); SPC storm reports for October 2 and October 3 (no tornado, hail, or wind reports received); Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, updated 0738 UTC Saturday; National Weather Service watches, warnings, and advisories summary; National Hurricane Center Advisory 25 on Hurricane Rachel, 2:00 a.m. MST Saturday. Prior desk: Storm Updates: Central Texas Slight Flood, Kansas Water — Friday, October 2, 2026.

October 3, 2026

Storm Updates: New Mexico Flood Moderate, Dakotas–Appalachians Marginal — Wednesday, September 23, 2026 (Morning)

This is a live Wednesday morning snapshot of local storm-type events across the United States as of the morning of Wednesday, September 23, 2026. Overnight into this morning, the flood desk ran ahead of the severe desk: National Weather Service flash-flood warnings for El Paso County, Texas; Amelia, Cumberland, and Powhatan counties in central Virginia; and a receding western North Carolina pulse around Lake Lure / Bat Cave / Chimney Rock. Those overnight warnings are treated as expired or expiring into this morning. Today’s desks: Storm Prediction Center Marginal Risk for parts of the western Dakotas and the southern Appalachians; Weather Prediction Center Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall across portions of central and eastern New Mexico. No convective watches are currently valid.

These are county- and ZIP-scale thunderstorms and flood pulses, not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. There is no named tropical cyclone threatening U.S. land in the current National Hurricane Center picture. Restoration exposure today into tonight is water first in New Mexico and far west Texas, leftover street and creek flooding in central Virginia and the southern Appalachians, and isolated damaging gusts this afternoon if the two Marginal corridors heat. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What is live this morning

SPC’s 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook (issued 7:26 a.m. CDT Wednesday, September 23, 2026; Smith/Mead; valid 231300Z–241200Z) places a Marginal Risk over parts of the western Dakotas and the southern Appalachians. Summary: isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon across those two corridors. Western Dakotas: mid-level trough moving out of Wyoming/Montana, lee trough, moisture plume off the High Plains, around 1,000 J/kg MLCAPE, isolated marginally severe hail or gusts through early evening. Southern Appalachians: mid-level vorticity maximum sliding southeast from the lower Ohio Valley; dewpoints in the 60s °F; 250–750 J/kg MLCAPE if heating wins against low cloud; strong to locally damaging gusts with the stronger cells. Hail probabilities were removed after the 12 UTC Nashville sounding showed poor 700–500 mb lapse rates (4.8 °C/km).

No convective watches were currently valid as of the SPC watches page update at 09:44:06 UTC Wednesday, September 23, 2026. Most recent watch on the board: 0674. Check spc.noaa.gov/products/watch before you stage.

WPC’s Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 0832 UTC Wednesday, September 23, 2026; Chenard; valid 12Z Wed–12Z Thu) holds a Moderate Risk across portions of central and eastern New Mexico. Scattered to numerous flash floods are expected; locally significant and life-threatening impacts remain possible on sensitive terrain, urban drainage, and burn scars. A widespread 1–2 inches is generally expected, with localized 2–4 inch swaths likely on top of rain that already fell before 12Z. The Slight risk extends into southeast Arizona and a slice of far west Texas if storms propagate east. Separate flood desks: Slight over portions of eastern Kentucky, eastern Tennessee, and far western North Carolina; Marginal from Ohio into West Virginia and western Virginia/North Carolina; Marginal over south Florida.

Hotspot 1 — Central and eastern New Mexico / far west Texas

Today’s Moderate flood desk and the national headline. A well-defined mid-level shortwave lifts north-northeast across New Mexico with robust upper divergence and the chance of a weak surface low. Cloud cover is the limiter; daytime heating on the eastern edge of the rain shield plus easterly upslope should still support training cells in deep southerly flow. HREF/REFS neighborhood probabilities of more than 3 inches run 40–70% across the eastern half of the Moderate area. Overnight El Paso County already took radar-indicated 0.5–1.5 inch bursts and flash-flood warnings that expired before dawn.

Restoration read: water first. Stage pumps and air movers before the afternoon/evening cores organize. Burn-scar runoff and arroyos fail first. Start extraction the same night if water is inside. Turn around, don’t drown — most flood deaths are in vehicles.

Hotspot 2 — Southern Appalachians / eastern Tennessee

Dual desk: SPC Marginal for isolated damaging gusts, WPC Slight for flash flood on wet ground from eastern Kentucky through eastern Tennessee into far western North Carolina. Extensive low cloud this morning is the uncertainty. If breaks allow 250–750 J/kg MLCAPE, multicells along the inverted trough can put down strong gusts around peak heating. HREF/REFS neighborhood flash-flood-guidance exceedance peaks over eastern Tennessee (above 40% in spots). Overnight, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg held a flash-flood warning into 5:45 a.m. EDT for southeastern Buncombe, northeastern Henderson, southwestern McDowell, northwestern Polk, and northwestern Rutherford counties — 2.5–4 inches already down, waters receding by 3:05 a.m. EDT, Rocky Broad near Bat Cave falling through 6.58 feet.

Restoration read: leftover water plus a second-chance afternoon pulse. Do not treat receding creeks as closed. Stage extractors in eastern Tennessee and western North Carolina; tree and tarp crews only if the gusty cells actually fire.

Hotspot 3 — Western Dakotas

New SPC Marginal added on the 1300 UTC outlook. Mid-level trough crossing Wyoming/Montana reaches the western Dakotas late afternoon and deamplifies toward the Red River Valley by Thursday morning. Lee trough holds a moisture plume north from the central High Plains. Widely scattered storms near the Black Hills and lee trough this afternoon; isolated marginally severe hail or gusts through early evening. No major population centers sit inside the 5% hail contour.

Restoration read: isolated wind and hail, not a regional outbreak. Stage only if you already work the Black Hills / western Dakota corridor. Do not pull crews off the New Mexico water desk for this.

Just hit

Overnight flood, not overnight severe. NWS El Paso/Santa Teresa issued flash-flood warnings for northwestern and central El Paso County into the small hours (radar 0.5–1.5 inches, additional 0.5–1 inch possible; warnings through 3:15 a.m. MDT). Otero Mesa / northwest of Dell City had 2.5–3 inches radar-estimated earlier in the night with rural-road flooding held off Dell City by retention dams. NWS Wakefield: up to 4 inches since 11 p.m. in northwestern Amelia County and up to 5.5 inches since 10 p.m. in western Powhatan County; warnings through 4:00–5:30 a.m. EDT. Western North Carolina pulse receding after 2.5–4 inches.

SPC local storm reports for the 22/1200Z–23/1159Z window carried no tornado and no hail. Wind reports from late Tuesday afternoon remain on the board for Lauderdale County, Alabama (Lexington / Rogersville): power lines down, a brush fire, and a power pole/lines on a vehicle — already noted on yesterday’s afternoon Tygart Media desk. Do not invent additional LSR points.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / WPC / NWS level	Status this morning
Central / eastern NM and far west TX	Flash flood, training storms, burn-scar runoff	WPC Moderate	Live flood desk today–Thu 12Z
Southeast AZ	Localized flash flood	WPC Slight	Today
Eastern KY / eastern TN / far western NC	Flash flood + isolated damaging gusts	WPC Slight + SPC Marginal	Afternoon–evening
Western Dakotas / Black Hills	Isolated hail / gusts	SPC Marginal	Late afternoon–early evening
OH into WV / western VA–NC	Localized flash flood on wet soils	WPC Marginal	Today
South Florida	Urban flash flood	WPC Marginal	Local
El Paso / central VA / WNC overnight	Flash flood (expired/expiring FFWs)	Overnight NWS warnings	Aftermath / receding
U.S. mainland tropics	No landfalling named cyclone	NHC quiet for CONUS land	Quiet

What this means for restoration teams

New Mexico and far west Texas remain water jobs if the Moderate risk verifies — extraction, drying, and a 24–48 hour mold clock. Central Virginia and western North Carolina are aftermath from last night plus a second-chance flood axis this afternoon in eastern Tennessee. The Dakotas Marginal is isolated. Do not treat receding overnight warnings as a closed book; soils are primed. Stage before the New Mexico afternoon cores. Start extraction the same night if water is inside. Turn around, don’t drown.

What this is not

This is not a regional derecho and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. There are no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin at this hour. Hurricane Polo (Category 4, off southwest Mexico) and Hurricane Odalys (eastern Pacific, well west of Baja) are not CONUS land threats today. Tropical Depression Fifteen-E is a Central Pacific system near Hawaii, not a mainland U.S. landfall. Today’s work, if it verifies, is scattered: New Mexico flash flood, leftover Mid-Atlantic and Appalachian water, isolated Dakotas hail/wind, isolated southern Appalachian gusts.

Looking ahead

SPC Day 2 (Thursday) and Day 3 currently show no severe thunderstorm areas. That does not cancel today’s New Mexico flood problem or this afternoon’s two Marginal corridors. Day 4–8 language is only a possible localized Plains/Mid-Mississippi threat next Monday–Wednesday with weak shear — too unclear for probabilities. Watch the next Storm Tracker update rather than assuming the Moderate rainfall risk is the last line of the week.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources: SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook issued 7:26 a.m. CDT Wednesday, September 23, 2026 (Smith/Mead); SPC watches page updated 09:44:06 UTC Wednesday, September 23, 2026; WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook updated 0832 UTC Wednesday, September 23, 2026 (Chenard); NWS El Paso/Santa Teresa, Wakefield, and Greenville-Spartanburg flash-flood products overnight; SPC local storm reports (Lauderdale County, Alabama wind from Tuesday afternoon); NHC Atlantic discussion 1215 UTC Wednesday, September 23, 2026.

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watch, and local storm reports, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay. Prior desk: Storm Updates September 22, 2026 — New Mexico Flood Moderate, Utah–Southeast Marginal.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

September 23, 2026

Storm Updates: New Mexico Flood Moderate, Utah–Southeast Marginal — Tuesday, September 22, 2026 (Morning)

This is a live Tuesday morning snapshot of local storm-type events across the United States as of the morning of Tuesday, September 22, 2026. Overnight, the Appalachians–Southeast corridor carried the pulse — NWS Charleston, West Virginia flash-flood warnings for southern and north-central West Virginia into southwest Virginia. Those overnight warnings are treated as expired/expiring into this morning (no active WV flash-flood warnings on the NWS alert feed at hang time). Today’s desks: Storm Prediction Center Marginal Risk for much of Utah into adjacent Wyoming and Colorado, plus a portion of the Southeast; Weather Prediction Center Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall across portions of southern New Mexico. No convective watches are currently valid.

These are county- and ZIP-scale thunderstorms and flood pulses, not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. There is no U.S. landfalling tropical cyclone in the current National Hurricane Center picture. Restoration exposure today into tonight is water first in southern New Mexico and far west Texas, wind and marginally severe hail this afternoon across the Utah corridor, leftover Appalachian water from Monday night, and locally severe gusts plus flood axes across parts of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What is live this morning

SPC’s 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook (issued 7:22 a.m. CDT Tuesday, September 22, 2026; Smith/Mead; valid 221300Z–231200Z) places a Marginal Risk over much of Utah into adjacent Wyoming and Colorado, and across a portion of the Southeast. Summary: isolated severe wind gusts today in Utah into southwest Wyoming and western Colorado; thunderstorms capable of strong to locally severe damaging gusts also possible across parts of the Southeast. Outlook footprint ~196,000 square miles / ~24 million people. Larger Southeast centers in the risk area include Charlotte, Atlanta, Greensboro, Birmingham, and Montgomery.

No convective watches were currently valid as of the SPC watches page update at 11:44:05 UTC Tuesday, September 22, 2026. Most recent watch on the board: 0674. Check spc.noaa.gov/products/watch before you stage.

WPC’s Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 0809 UTC Tuesday, September 22, 2026; Chenard; valid 12Z Tue–12Z Wed) holds a Moderate Risk across portions of southern New Mexico, with flood watches from noon MDT today through Wednesday afternoon/evening for large parts of New Mexico and far west Texas (NWS Albuquerque and El Paso/Santa Teresa). WPC Slight axes: southeast Virginia into South Carolina, and West Virginia into southwest Virginia. South Florida: WPC Marginal for localized urban flash flood.

Hotspot 1 — Southern New Mexico / far west Texas

Today’s Moderate flood desk. Multi-day heavy rain starts today under an upper trough, jet right-entrance dynamics, deep southerly tropical moisture, and precipitable water toward mid/late September record levels. Daytime favors scattered storms; overnight trends toward a more concentrated rain shield with heavier cores over southern New Mexico. Ensemble neighborhood guidance: 40–70% chance of more than 3 inches across New Mexico today; 2–4 inch max footprint through early Wednesday. Scattered to numerous flash floods expected, some locally significant, including Sacramento Mountains burn scars.

Restoration read: water first. Stage pumps and air movers before the overnight shield organizes. Burn-scar runoff and low water crossings fail first. Start extraction the same night if water is inside.

Hotspot 2 — Utah into southwest Wyoming and western Colorado

SPC Marginal wind-and-hail corridor. Mid-level trough over the western Great Basin moves northeast across Utah through early evening. After early showers, heating steepens 0–2 km lapse rates; elongated hodographs support a few stronger cells with marginally severe hail. Isolated 60–75 mph gusts are the primary hazard. Activity can later spill into western Colorado and southwest Wyoming late afternoon into early evening.

Restoration read: wind and isolated hail. Stage tarps, generators, and tree crews before late afternoon. Soft-metal roofs and skylights after stronger cells only if it is safe.

Hotspot 3 — Southeast / southern Appalachians, plus Mid-Atlantic flood axes

SPC Marginal for the Southeast focuses on a slow-moving cold front from the Deep South into the southern Appalachians. Dewpoints upper 60s–lower 70s °F; afternoon MLCAPE about 1,500–2,500 J/kg. Weak shear; water-loaded downdrafts can produce locally severe gusts into early evening.

WPC Slight flood axes: southeast Virginia into South Carolina (coastal convergence + backdoor front; neighborhood high for 3 inches, localized 5 inches possible) and West Virginia into southwest Virginia (wetter soils, lower flash-flood guidance, inverted trough). Farther north Mid-Atlantic: more stratiform 1–2 inches. South Florida WPC Marginal is a local urban-flood desk, not the national headline.

Restoration read: gusty wind and street flooding can share the same ZIP. Charlotte, Atlanta, Greensboro, Birmingham, and Montgomery sit inside the broader Southeast convective risk — local pulse desks, not a regional derecho.

Just hit

Monday afternoon into overnight, the Appalachians–Southeast carried the live severe and flash-flood pulse (already on yesterday’s afternoon Tygart Media desk). Overnight NWS Charleston, West Virginia flash-flood warnings covered southern West Virginia / southwest Virginia (Welch, Pineville, Davy, McDowell, Wyoming, Buchanan; 1–3 inches radar-indicated) and north-central West Virginia along Buckhannon–Burnsville–Century / I-79 (1–3 inches). Those overnight warnings are treated as expired or expiring into this morning. No clean parsed SPC LSR list in this pass — do not invent points.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / WPC / NWS level	Status this morning
Southern NM / far west TX	Flash flood, multi-day heavy rain, burn-scar runoff	WPC Moderate + flood watches	Live flood desk today–Wed
Utah into SW WY / western CO	Severe wind gusts, marginally severe hail	SPC Marginal	Afternoon–early evening
Southeast / southern Appalachians	Locally severe damaging gusts	SPC Marginal	Afternoon–early evening
SE VA into SC; WV into SW VA	Flash flood / heavy rain	WPC Slight	Today into tonight
South Florida	Urban flash flood, lightning	WPC Marginal	Local
Appalachians–Southeast overnight	Flash flood (yesterday’s pulse)	Overnight FFWs (expired/expiring)	Aftermath / drying
U.S. mainland tropics	No landfalling tropical cyclone	NHC quiet for mainland	Quiet

What this means for restoration teams

Southern New Mexico and far west Texas are water jobs if the Moderate risk verifies — extraction, drying, and a 24–48 hour mold clock. Utah’s Marginal corridor is wind and isolated hail. Southeast Marginal wind is local gusty warnings, not a derecho. Leftover Appalachian water from Monday night is aftermath. Stage before the overnight New Mexico rain shield; start extraction the same night if water is inside. Turn around, don’t drown.

What this is not

This is not a regional derecho and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. Tropical Depression Fay is mid-Atlantic open ocean and becoming post-tropical — not a U.S. land threat. Hurricane Polo and Tropical Storm Odalys remain eastern Pacific systems and are not mainland landfall threats today. Today’s work, if it verifies, is scattered: southern New Mexico flash flood, Utah–Colorado wind/hail, Southeast gusts, leftover Appalachian water.

Looking ahead

SPC Day 2 and Day 3 currently show no severe thunderstorm areas. That does not cancel tonight’s New Mexico flood problem or this afternoon’s Marginal corridors. Watch the next Storm Tracker update rather than assuming the Moderate rainfall risk is the last line of the week.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources: SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook issued 7:22 a.m. CDT Tuesday, September 22, 2026 (Smith/Mead); SPC watches page updated 11:44:05 UTC Tuesday, September 22, 2026; WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook updated 0809 UTC Tuesday, September 22, 2026 (Chenard); NWS Albuquerque and El Paso/Santa Teresa flood watches; overnight NWS Charleston, West Virginia flash-flood warnings; NHC advisories (Fay, Polo, Odalys).

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watch, and local storm reports, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay. Prior desk: Storm Updates September 21, 2026 — Appalachians–Southeast Marginal / Central Appalachians Flood Slight.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

September 22, 2026

Storm Updates: Slight Risk in the Dakotas, Gulf Coast Wind Cells, Florida Flood Pulses — Monday, September 7, 2026

This is a live Labor Day Monday snapshot of local storm-type events across the United States as of the afternoon of Monday, September 7, 2026. These are county- and ZIP-scale thunderstorms — hail, damaging wind, and short-fuse heavy rain — not a landfalling tropical cyclone.

There is no active Atlantic tropical cyclone threatening the U.S. mainland. The 2026 season has produced named tropical storms only; no hurricane has formed yet. The pulse today is convective: a Slight Risk of severe storms in the Dakotas, damaging-wind cells on the central Gulf Coast, and slow-moving heavy rain across Florida into coastal Georgia and South Carolina.

National Weather Service CONUS radar mosaic showing current precipitation across the United States — NWS CONUS radar mosaic. Public domain.

These are the events that generate the restoration work crews actually see: wind-driven roof and siding failures, hail-pocked windows and vehicles, downed trees on service lines, and interior flooding from 2–3 inches in an hour on poorly drained streets. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What is live this afternoon

The Storm Prediction Center 2000 UTC Day 1 outlook holds a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of central North Dakota and southeast South Dakota into northeast Nebraska. The headline threat is large hail. A tornado or two is possible in southeast South Dakota. Isolated damaging wind is possible across a broader Marginal Risk from the northern and central Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley. Locally damaging wind gusts remain possible over the central Gulf Coast states.

No convective watches are in effect as of this writing. Warnings are local Severe Thunderstorm Warnings and Special Weather Statements, plus flood advisories where storms stall.

Hotspot 1 — Northern Plains: North Dakota, South Dakota, eastern Montana

A shortwave coming off the northern Rockies is the organizer. SPC expects widely scattered severe storms capable of mainly large hail over northwest into central North Dakota and southeast South Dakota this afternoon into evening. Forecast soundings east of a sharpening dryline in central ND support supercell modes. Large hail is the primary restoration exposure. Isolated tornado risk is highest in southeast South Dakota.

Official Local Storm Reports already on the board today include 62 mph near Midland, South Dakota; 73 mph west-southwest of Fort Pierre; 59 mph near Forestgrove, Montana; and 63 mph near Winnett, Montana. Overnight and early-morning reports from eastern Montana included estimated 2-inch hail near Shepherd in Yellowstone County, with broken windows and siding damage from wind-driven hail.

Recent Severe Thunderstorm Warnings from NWS Glasgow have covered Garfield, McCone, Prairie, and Petroleum counties in northeastern Montana for radar-indicated 60 mph gusts. Weather Prediction Center Day 1 also carries a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall for a portion of northwestern Montana.

Restoration read: hail and wind first. Check roofs, skylights, west- and south-facing windows, and vehicle lots. Trees and service drops follow the 60-plus mph cores.

Hotspot 2 — Central Gulf Coast: Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Florida Panhandle, far southeast Texas

Hot, very moist air with MLCAPE in the 2500–3500 J/kg range is supporting scattered afternoon and evening storms. Shear is weak, so this is not a supercell outbreak. The threat is intense downdrafts and slow storm motion. WPC added a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall from far southeastern Texas into southwestern Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle. Rainfall rates of 2–3 inches in an hour are possible where cells stall near the Texas–Louisiana border.

Active and recent Severe Thunderstorm Warnings this afternoon have included St. Helena, Livingston, Tangipahoa, and West/East Feliciana parishes in southeast Louisiana (near Hammond, Natalbany, Zachary, Slaughter) and south-central Alabama into northwest Florida (Escambia, Santa Rosa, Conecuh — Brewton, Flomaton, Evergreen, Pollard). Hazard language has been 60 mph gusts and penny-size hail.

Yesterday’s LSRs already showed the damage type: trees and power lines down near Philadelphia and Greenville, Mississippi, including a microburst with building damage in the Greenville area.

Restoration read: wind and water, not a hurricane surge. Urban flooding and tree-on-roof jobs in the same zip codes as the warning polygons.

Hotspot 3 — Florida and the coastal Southeast

Southeast Florida has been firing strong storms through Labor Day afternoon. NWS and local offices have carried a Severe Thunderstorm Warning for southeastern Martin County with radar-indicated 60 mph gusts and penny hail, plus a Flood Advisory in east-central Palm Beach County after 2–3 inches of rain. Steering is weak; cells can dump on the same neighborhoods twice.

Northeast Florida into coastal Georgia and southern South Carolina sits under an above-average precipitable-water axis. NWS Jacksonville has been issuing Special Weather Statements for Baker, Columbia, Alachua, Suwannee, and adjacent Georgia counties with 40 mph gusts. WPC notes high neighborhood probabilities for 2- and 3-inch rainfall totals along that coastal moisture axis.

Restoration read: interior water and urban flooding first, then wind to trees and fascia. Metro Broward/Miami-Dade and the I-10 / I-75 corridors in north Florida are the places to watch hour by hour.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / WPC level	Status this afternoon
Central ND / SE SD / NE NE	Large hail, damaging wind, isolated tornado	Slight	Developing afternoon–evening
Eastern MT / northern Plains	Damaging wind, hail	Marginal + local SVR warnings	Active
Gulf Coast LA–AL–FL Panhandle	Damaging wind, flash flood pulses	Marginal + local SVR warnings	Active
SE / NE Florida + coastal GA/SC	Heavy rain, gusty wind, urban flooding	Local severe / flood advisories	Active
Atlantic tropics vs. U.S. coast	None	No tropical cyclone	Quiet

What this is not

This is not a regional derecho and not a hurricane landfall. No watches are up. The work, if it comes, will be scattered: a hail swath through a Dakota county, a microburst block in Louisiana or Alabama, a flooded intersection in Palm Beach or Jacksonville. That is the local-storm pattern restoration desks should staff for tonight.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Convective Outlook issued 0259 PM CDT Monday, September 7, 2026; SPC today’s storm reports; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook; National Hurricane Center Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook (no tropical cyclone formation expected in the next 7 days); and active NWS warning text from Glasgow MT, New Orleans LA, Mobile AL, Jacksonville FL, and West Palm Beach-area offices.

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook and LSRs, and local radar before you treat any polygon as a job ticket. This desk will update when the evening reports close.

September 7, 2026