Tag: Florida

Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Oct 31 Morning

Tropical: None · Severe: None · Flood: Slight

What Changed

Compared with the previous afternoon desk pulse table (quiet-pulse-2026-10-30-afternoon: Tropical: None · Severe: Marginal · Flood: Slight): SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook (0100 UTC November 1, 2026 update, issued 0752 PM CDT October 31, valid 010100Z–011200Z) continues NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST. The prior Marginal Risk over southern and central Arizona remains closed. No convective watches currently valid.
WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 0003 UTC November 1, valid 01 UTC Nov 01 – 12 UTC Nov 01) holds a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall for portions of central Arizona, expanded slightly to the international border based on observational trends. Surrounding Marginal areas trimmed in places.
Tropical lane remains None. National Hurricane Center Tropical Weather Outlook (800 PM EDT October 31) states tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days for the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of America. No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf.
Residual Flood Warnings continue in Maricopa and Gila Counties, Arizona, from prior rainfall on saturated soils. Coastal Flood Warnings remain for the Florida Keys and eastern Putnam County. Flash Flood Warnings active in parts of southern Mississippi. Winter Storm Warnings in portions of Alaska, Colorado, and Nevada. No upgrade to Moderate or higher on the current Day 1 ERO.
Nothing moved to SPC Slight or above, WPC Moderate or above, or opened a U.S. tropical watch/warning. Quiet Pulse criteria hold. Dominant residual ticket remains the Slight excessive rainfall risk and localized flash flooding in central Arizona.

Live Status

As of the morning desk on Saturday, October 31, 2026 (approximately 8:13 PM PDT / 03:13 UTC November 1), the national picture is a Quiet Pulse. The Storm Prediction Center’s latest Day 1 Convective Outlook (0100 UTC November 1 update) confirms no severe threat is forecast across the U.S. through tonight. Isolated thunderstorms remain possible this evening in parts of the lower to mid Mississippi Valley, over the southern half of Florida, in southeast Arizona, and across parts of the Intermountain West, but no severe threat is expected over the continental U.S.

The Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook maintains a Slight Risk focused on portions of central Arizona, where antecedent saturation from recent rains and an ongoing atmospheric river setup elevate flash-flood potential. Adjustments expanded the Slight Risk across southern Arizona to the international border. Surrounding Marginal Risk areas were pared in northern/western Nevada, interior California, and eastern Florida. No Moderate or higher risk is indicated on the current Day 1 product.

National Weather Service products show residual Flood Warnings in effect for Maricopa County (including Indian Bend Wash and Salt River impacts) and Gila County in Arizona. Coastal Flood Warnings remain for the Upper and Middle Florida Keys and eastern Putnam County. A Flash Flood Warning remains in effect for portions of Pearl River County, Mississippi. Winter Storm Warnings continue for higher elevations in Colorado, Alaska, and Nevada. No convective watches are currently valid.

Pulse Table

Lane	Status	Notes (as of ~03:13 UTC Nov 1 2026 / ~8:13 PM PDT Oct 31)
Tropical	None	No tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf. NHC: formation not expected next 7 days. No U.S. coastal or Gulf watches or warnings.
Severe	None	SPC Day 1: NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST. Prior Arizona Marginal closed. Isolated non-severe storms possible in SW and Gulf Coast regions. No watches.
Flood	Slight	WPC Day 1 ERO Slight Risk central Arizona. Residual Flood Warnings AZ (Maricopa, Gila). Coastal Flood Warnings FL Keys/Putnam. Flash Flood Warning MS. No Moderate or higher on Day 1.

Rising Queries

Trends unreachable.

Restoration Read

Primary residual ticket is localized flash flooding and runoff impacts across central Arizona on already saturated soils under the Slight ERO, plus ongoing river and wash flooding in Maricopa and Gila Counties. Secondary residual is coastal flooding in portions of Florida and isolated flash flooding in southern Mississippi. No widespread organized severe damage expected. Monitor low-water crossings, urban drainage, and burn scars. Turn around, don’t drown.

What This Is Not

This is a Quiet Pulse. No SPC Slight or higher severe risk on the latest Day 1 outlook. No WPC Moderate or higher excessive rainfall on Day 1. No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf. This desk summarizes public products from the SPC, WPC, NWS, and NHC. Informational only — not an official warning.

Looking Ahead

Day 2 SPC holds a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms. WPC Day 2 indicates elevated excessive rainfall risks for portions of the Southwest. Monitor for potential escalation overnight into Sunday. No named tropical systems active.

Informational only — not an official warning. Always check weather.gov for local forecasts and warnings. Turn around, don’t drown.

October 31, 2026

Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Oct 29

As of the afternoon desk on Thursday, October 29, 2026 (approximately 9:16 PM PDT / 04:16 UTC October 30), the national picture remains a Quiet Pulse. The Storm Prediction Center’s latest Day 1 Convective Outlook (0100 UTC update issued 0728 PM CDT October 29, valid 300100Z–301200Z) holds only a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of central and northeast Kansas and locally in southwest Texas. The Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (special update 0132 UTC October 30) includes a Slight Risk for portions of west and central Texas and southeastern New Mexico. No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning is in effect on the U.S. coast or Gulf.

Tropical: None · Severe: Marginal · Flood: Slight

What Changed

Compared with this morning’s pulse table (quiet-pulse-2026-10-29-morning: Tropical: None · Severe: Marginal · Flood: Quiet) and the earlier afternoon desk (~8:14 PM PDT): SPC Day 1 Marginal Risk holds for central and northeast Kansas (~19,351 sq mi, ~592,000 people including Topeka, Salina, Manhattan, Hutchinson, Junction City) for isolated hail this evening, and locally in southwest Texas for a possible brief tornado. No convective watches currently valid. Prior MDs 2418/2419 have expired; no MDs in effect.
WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (special issuance 0132 UTC Oct 30) maintains a Slight Risk for west and central Texas and southeastern New Mexico, driven by moisture from the remnants of Vance and ongoing convection. Marginal Risk also noted near the MO/KS/IA/NE border. Flood lane remains Slight. Active Flash Flood Warnings now in effect in northeastern Kansas (Marshall and Nemaha counties, with 3–3.5 inches already fallen) and portions of New Mexico.
No named tropical cyclone threatens or has just hit U.S. land. Atlantic basin quiet with no formation expected in the next 7 days. Remnants of Vance (EPAC, final advisory issued; no longer a well-defined center) pose no U.S. land threat; moisture is spreading into the south-central and southwestern United States. No coastal or Gulf watches or warnings.
A Severe Thunderstorm Warning remains in effect for northeastern Nemaha County, Kansas (60 mph gusts and quarter-size hail possible). Residual Flood Warnings continue on river systems from prior rainfall (St. Johns River near Deland and Astor in Florida; portions of New Mexico), plus localized Flash Flood Warnings and Flood Watches in Arizona, New Mexico, Texas, and Hawaii.
Severe lane holds at Marginal. Flood lane remains Slight. No SPC Slight or higher, no WPC Moderate or higher, no U.S. tropical watch/warning. Quiet Pulse criteria hold. Short-term focus is isolated severe and flash flooding in Kansas plus the TX/NM Slight Risk area.

Live Status

SPC Day 1 (issued 0728 PM CDT October 29, 2026, valid through 12Z October 30) lists a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) of severe thunderstorms across parts of central and northeast Kansas and locally in southwest Texas. In Kansas, widely scattered thunderstorms are developing near a stalled front in a moderately unstable airmass (MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg) with sufficient shear for cell rotation, supporting an isolated hail threat as storms move northeastward. In southwest Texas, weak instability and elevated low-level shear/helicity support a brief tornado possibility with low-topped cells early this evening. No current watches.

WPC Day 1 ERO (updated 0132 UTC Fri Oct 30) places a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall for portions of west and central Texas and southeastern New Mexico, with hourly rain amounts potentially reaching 2 inches from cell mergers or training, and local totals of 5 inches possible near the TX/MX border. A Marginal Risk is also indicated near the Missouri/Kansas/Iowa/Nebraska border junction. Confidence is high in a heavy rainfall event through tonight into Friday morning from moisture associated with the remnants of Vance. PWATs elevated to 1.5–2 inches across much of Texas.

NWS has issued Flash Flood Warnings for west central Marshall County and northern Nemaha County in northeastern Kansas until approximately 2:45 AM CDT, based on 3–3.5 inches of rain with additional amounts possible. A Severe Thunderstorm Warning remains for northeastern Nemaha County. Residual Flood Warnings on some river systems from prior rainfall and localized coastal flood advisories (e.g., parts of Florida) continue. High Wind Warnings and Winter Storm Warnings are active in portions of Alaska. Additional Flash Flood Warnings and Flood Watches are in effect in parts of Arizona, New Mexico, Texas, and Hawaii.

Hotspots

West and central Texas / southeastern New Mexico: Slight Risk excessive rainfall this evening into Friday morning. Highest totals near the border; flash flooding possible from training storms and elevated PWATs (1.5–2 inches). Urban and low-lying areas most vulnerable. Dominant flood lane.
Central and northeast Kansas: Isolated hail threat this evening with storms along the stalled front. Active Severe Thunderstorm Warning and Flash Flood Warnings in Nemaha and Marshall counties (3–3.5 inches already fallen near Bern and Marysville). Primary short-term severe and flood focus. Population centers include Topeka, Salina, Manhattan.
Residual river and coastal flooding: Ongoing Flood Warnings on the St. Johns River system in Florida and portions of New Mexico, plus minor coastal flood advisories and active Flash Flood Warnings in the Southwest and Hawaii. Not the driver of the new Slight Risk.

Just-Hit / Local Storm Reports

Active Severe Thunderstorm Warning for northeastern Nemaha County, Kansas (radar-indicated 60 mph gusts and quarter-size hail near Bern). Flash Flood Warnings in Marshall and Nemaha counties with gauge-indicated 3–3.5 inches of rain. SPC storm reports page previously showed no tornado, hail, or wind reports received for the day; local warnings indicate ongoing activity. No widespread significant reports beyond the active warnings.

Pulse Table

Lane	Status	Notes (as of ~9:16 PM PDT / 04:16 UTC Oct 30 2026)
Tropical	None	No tropical cyclones in the Atlantic. Remnants of Vance (EPAC, final advisory, no well-defined center) pose no U.S. land threat; moisture spreading into SW U.S. No coastal or Gulf watches or warnings.
Severe	Marginal	SPC Day 1 Marginal Risk (~19k sq mi, ~592k people) for central/NE Kansas (isolated hail) and locally SW Texas (brief tornado possible). No active watches. SVR Warning in Nemaha County KS.
Flood	Slight	WPC Day 1 ERO Slight Risk west/central TX and SE NM (special update). Marginal near KS/MO/IA/NE. Active FFWs in NE KS (Marshall/Nemaha) and NM. Residual river Flood Warnings continue.

Restoration Read

Quiet Pulse with an elevated flood lane. Primary residual and short-term ticket is flash flooding and rapid runoff in west and central Texas, southeastern New Mexico, and now northeastern Kansas under active warnings (3+ inches already in Marshall/Nemaha). Isolated hail potential in central and northeast Kansas with an active Severe Thunderstorm Warning. Limited brief tornado possibility in southwest Texas. Ongoing river stage concerns on residual Flood Warnings in Florida and New Mexico. No organized widespread damage expected. Monitor for water intrusion, debris, and road closures. Turn around, don’t drown.

What This Is Not

This is a Quiet Pulse. No SPC Slight or higher severe risk on the latest Day 1 outlook. No WPC Moderate or higher excessive rainfall. No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America. This desk summarizes public products from the SPC, WPC, NWS, and NHC.

Looking Ahead

SPC Day 2 holds a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms in parts of southern and central Arizona for Friday (isolated damaging winds and large hail possible). Day 3 shows no severe areas. WPC Day 1 Slight Risk for TX/NM continues into early Friday; residual moisture from Vance contributes to Southwest showers. Halloween weekend looks unsettled with rain possible across the Plains, but no elevated severe or flood lanes open beyond current products yet.

Rising Queries

flood watch
Texas flood
Kansas storms
severe thunderstorm warning
flash flood

Sources

Storm Prediction Center (Day 1 Outlook 0100Z Oct 30, issued 0728 PM CDT Oct 29)
Weather Prediction Center (Day 1 ERO special update 0132 UTC Oct 30, Slight Risk TX/NM)
National Weather Service (watches, warnings, residual Flood Warnings, active FFWs and SVR Warning in KS)
National Hurricane Center (Atlantic quiet; remnants of Vance EPAC)
Morning desk: quiet-pulse-2026-10-29-morning

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Always check weather.gov for local forecasts and warnings. Turn around, don’t drown.

October 29, 2026

Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Oct 25 Morning

As of this Sunday evening update to the morning desk, October 25, 2026 (approximately 9:12 PM PDT / 0412Z October 26), the national picture remains a Quiet Pulse. The Storm Prediction Center holds a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms across portions of eastern New Mexico into Far West Texas on the latest Day 1 Convective Outlook (0100 UTC October 26 update, valid through 1200Z October 26). Isolated large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a tornado or two remain possible this evening and overnight. No convective watches are currently valid. The Weather Prediction Center holds a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over portions of the central and southern High Plains. No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning is in effect on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America.

Tropical: None · Severe: Marginal · Flood: Slight

What Changed

Compared with the earlier version of this morning desk: SPC Day 1 (0100Z October 26 / 7:44 PM CDT) continues a MARGINAL RISK of severe thunderstorms across portions of eastern New Mexico and Far West Texas (approx. 56,500 sq mi, 1.1 million people including Roswell, Alamogordo, Clovis, Carlsbad). Area has contracted from the earlier 2000Z update. Isolated large hail, damaging gusts, and a tornado or two possible this evening/night. No active watches (Watch 697 expired). Threat remains isolated.
WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated ~0103 UTC October 26) holds a SLIGHT RISK for portions of the central and southern High Plains (Far West Texas through the Panhandle into southwestern Kansas). Marginal Risk remains along the southeast Florida coast after the Slight was removed. No Moderate or above.
Overnight local NWS Flash Flood Warnings were issued for portions of Eddy County in New Mexico and Hudspeth/El Paso Counties in Texas with radar-indicated heavy rain. Flood sensitivity remains elevated on saturated soils from multi-day rainfall.
No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America. Atlantic basin quiet. Tropical Storm Vance (Eastern Pacific) and Tropical Storm Olana (Central Pacific) pose no U.S. land threat.
Nothing elevated any lane beyond Quiet Pulse criteria. Severe remains Marginal, flood remains Slight, tropical remains None. Primary residual ticket is isolated hail/wind and flash-flood runoff across New Mexico and far west Texas.

Live Status

SPC Day 1 lists a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) of severe thunderstorms for eastern New Mexico into Far West Texas. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening and into the night. Primary threats are large hail and damaging wind gusts, with a tornado or two possible along a reinforced baroclinic zone. Greater buoyancy supports stronger cells under 35-50 kt shear south of the boundary. No convective watches are active. Mesoscale discussions note watch issuance unlikely.

WPC maintains the Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over the central and southern High Plains. Favorable upper jet and mid-level forcing with persistent southerly inflow support moderate to heavy rain and training storms, with additional 1-2 inch amounts possible. Eastern Marginal extent was pulled westward. Southeast Florida carries a Marginal Risk after the Slight was dropped; showers remain progressive. No Moderate or higher ERO.

NWS offices issued Flash Flood Warnings overnight for western Texas and southeastern New Mexico. Flood Watches may continue where multi-day rainfall has left soils saturated. Winter Storm Warnings remain in effect for portions of Alaska, but these do not affect the CONUS Quiet Pulse.

Hotspots

Eastern New Mexico into Far West Texas (Roswell, Carlsbad, Alamogordo, Clovis corridor): Marginal severe residual and WPC Slight. Isolated hail, wind, and brief tornado possible this evening. Recent Flash Flood Warnings. Elevated runoff risk on saturated soils.
Southeast Florida: WPC Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall. Onshore flow supports isolated heavy showers. Urban flash-flood potential limited.

Just-Hit

Overnight Flash Flood Warnings for portions of Eddy County NM (Carlsbad Caverns area) and Hudspeth/El Paso Counties TX with 0.5-2 inches radar-indicated. Localized flooding of roads, arroyos, and low-lying areas. No confirmed significant tornado reports. Isolated severe and flood impacts continue in the Southwest.

Pulse Table

Lane	Status	Notes (as of ~0412Z Oct 26 2026 / 9:12 PM PDT Oct 25)
Tropical	None	No tropical cyclones in the Atlantic. TS Vance (EPAC) and TS Olana (CPAC) pose no U.S. land threat. No coastal or Gulf watches or warnings.
Severe	Marginal	SPC Day 1 (0100Z) Marginal Risk over eastern NM into Far West TX. No active watches. Isolated hail/wind/tornado possible this evening/night.
Flood	Slight	WPC Day 1 Slight Risk for central/southern High Plains. Marginal for SE Florida. Recent FFWs in TX/NM. Saturated soils. No Moderate or higher.

Restoration Read

Residual restoration ticket is isolated hail and wind damage to roofs, vehicles, siding, and trees across eastern New Mexico and far west Texas under the Marginal Risk. Secondary ticket is localized flash flooding and rapid runoff in urban corridors, small streams, canyons, and burn scars on already saturated soils. No widespread catastrophic damage expected.

What This Is Not

Looking Ahead

Monday (Day 2): SPC shows no severe risk area. WPC Day 1 threat winds down overnight into early Monday. Residual flash-flood sensitivity remains where soils are saturated. Monitor local NWS offices for any lingering warnings.

Rising Queries

Trends unreachable.

Sources

Official products: Storm Prediction Center (Day 1 Outlook 0100Z Oct 26), Weather Prediction Center (Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook), National Weather Service (watches, warnings), National Hurricane Center (Atlantic quiet). Previous version of this desk: quiet-pulse-2026-10-25-morning.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Always check weather.gov for local forecasts and warnings. Turn around, don’t drown.

October 25, 2026

Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Oct 20

Tropical: None · Severe: Quiet · Flood: Quiet

As of this Tuesday afternoon desk, October 20, 2026 (approximately 8:14 PM PDT / 11:14 PM EDT / 0314Z October 21), the national picture holds as a Quiet Pulse. SPC Day 1 continues with no severe thunderstorm areas forecast through tonight. WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook shows the probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance less than 5 percent. No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning is in effect on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America.

What Changed

Compared with this morning’s quiet-pulse-2026-10-20-morning pulse table: SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook (latest 0100 UTC / 7:51 PM CDT Tuesday, October 20, 2026, valid 210100Z–211200Z) continues NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST. No categorical severe risk remains open. No convective watches or Mesoscale Discussions are currently in effect.
WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated ~0028 UTC Wednesday October 21 / ~8:28 PM EDT Tuesday, valid 01Z–12Z Oct 21) confirms the probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less than 5 percent. The prior Marginal Risk over the Southwest has fully closed for Day 1. No Moderate or higher.
No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America. NHC reports no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Eastern Pacific, or Central Pacific. AL93 remains a storm-force non-tropical low a few hundred miles off the mid-Atlantic/North Carolina coast with a medium (40%) chance of briefly acquiring subtropical characteristics over the next couple of days as it moves north-northeast over the Gulf Stream. High winds, coastal flooding, and dangerous surf continue along portions of the East Coast.
Looking ahead (not Day 1): SPC Day 2 maintains an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms across portions of Arizona for Wednesday, with large hail and tornado potential. WPC Day 2 carries a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over the Southwest and Four Corners. Flood Watches are in effect for much of central and eastern Arizona, plus portions of New Mexico, Colorado, and California starting Wednesday. This remains outside the current Day 1 window.
Nothing material has moved to open a Slight or higher severe lane or Moderate or higher flood lane for today. Quiet Pulse holds on Day 1.

Live Status

SPC Day 1 (0100Z October 21) lists no severe thunderstorm areas. Isolated thunderstorms remain possible this evening into tonight across parts of the Desert Southwest and Intermountain West under modest instability, and overnight along a low-level moisture axis over the southern and central Great Plains, but no severe threat is forecast. No watches are valid.

The flood lane is Quiet on Day 1. Residual river Flood Warnings continue in Florida (St. Johns River near Astor, moderate stage) and Georgia (Satilla River at Atkinson). Coastal and marine products, including Gale Warnings and Storm Warnings offshore the mid-Atlantic, persist with the non-tropical low. Flood Watches for Wednesday cover portions of the Southwest and California ahead of the next system. Winter Storm Warnings remain active in interior Alaska.

Hotspots

Southwest / Arizona corridor (looking ahead): Flood Watches already issued for central and eastern Arizona, southwest Colorado, and western New Mexico starting Wednesday afternoon. SPC Day 2 Enhanced Risk targets portions of Arizona for large hail and isolated tornadoes. WPC Day 2 Slight Risk of excessive rainfall covers the Southwest and Four Corners.
East Coast coastal / marine: Storm-force non-tropical low (AL93) offshore the mid-Atlantic continues to drive high winds, coastal flooding, and dangerous surf. Gale Warnings and Storm Warnings are in effect for offshore waters. No tropical development is imminent for U.S. land.
Residual river and Alaska winter: Ongoing Flood Warnings on the St. Johns (FL) and Satilla (GA). Winter Storm Warnings remain active across portions of interior Alaska (Eastern Alaska Range, Fortymile Country, Yukon Flats) with heavy snow totals of 5–36 inches depending on elevation.

Just-Hit

No significant local storm reports of severe weather (hail ≥1 inch, damaging wind, tornado) or widespread flash flooding on Day 1. Prior Marginal activity over southeast Arizona and southwest New Mexico has ended with loss of heating. Residual river stages and coastal products only.

Pulse Table

Lane	Status	Notes (as of ~8:14 PM PDT / 11:14 PM EDT / 0314Z 21 Oct 2026)
Tropical	None	No named systems threatening U.S. land or Gulf. NHC: no tropical cyclones Atlantic/EPAC/CPAC. AL93 non-tropical low off mid-Atlantic (40% subtropical chance next few days). No U.S. tropical watches/warnings.
Severe	Quiet	SPC Day 1 (0100Z Oct 21): NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST. No watches or MDs valid. Isolated thunder possible Southwest and Plains overnight, no severe threat.
Flood	Quiet	WPC Day 1 probability <5%. Residual river Flood Warnings (St. Johns near Astor FL, Satilla Atkinson GA). Flood Watches issued for Southwest/CA starting Wednesday. Day 2 Slight Risk Southwest.

Rising Queries

“Flood watch” is rising in U.S. Trends, driven by the Arizona and Southwest Flood Watches issued ahead of Wednesday’s system. Related searches include Arizona weather, severe storms Arizona, and Phoenix flood watch. Broader weather forecast queries remain elevated with the approaching Day 2 risk.

Restoration Read

Quiet Pulse for today. No open Slight or higher severe or Moderate or higher flood lanes on Day 1. Residual river flooding in Florida and Georgia is the primary ongoing water concern. Coastal flooding and high surf along the East Coast will continue with the offshore low. Wednesday brings the first above-Quiet window over Arizona and the Southwest—monitor Flood Watches and the Day 2 Enhanced Risk closely. Turn around, don’t drown on any residual flooded roads.

What This Is Not

This is a Quiet Pulse. No SPC Slight or higher severe risk, no WPC Moderate or higher excessive rainfall on Day 1, and no tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf. The Enhanced severe and Slight flood risks for Wednesday remain outside the current Day 1 window.

Looking Ahead One Day

Wednesday holds an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms across portions of Arizona (large hail, isolated tornado potential) on the SPC Day 2 outlook. WPC Day 2 carries a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over the Southwest and Four Corners. Flood Watches are already in effect for much of central and eastern Arizona and adjacent areas starting Wednesday. The East Coast offshore low continues to influence winds, surf, and coastal flooding as it moves northeast. No named tropical threat to the U.S. coast is indicated.

Sources

SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook: spc.noaa.gov
WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook: wpc.ncep.noaa.gov
NWS Watches/Warnings: weather.gov
NHC: nhc.noaa.gov
This morning’s desk: quiet-pulse-2026-10-20-morning

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Always consult official NWS, SPC, WPC, and NHC products for decisions.

October 20, 2026

Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Oct 18

Tropical: None · Severe: Quiet · Flood: Quiet

What Changed

Compared with this morning’s quiet-pulse-2026-10-18-morning desk: SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook (latest 0100Z / 7:44 PM CDT Sunday, October 18, 2026, valid 190100Z–191200Z) continues NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST. Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. through tonight. No convective watches or Mesoscale Discussions valid.
WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (issued ~0100 UTC / 8:57 PM EDT Sunday, October 18, 2026, valid 01Z Mon Oct 19–12Z Mon Oct 19) shows the probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance less than 5 percent. Prior Marginal Risk over southeast Florida has dropped off the Day 1 outlook.
Developing storm-force non-tropical low off the southeast U.S. coast continues. NHC Tropical Weather Outlook gives near 0% chance of subtropical development through 48 hours and ~40% through 7 days. High winds, coastal flooding, and dangerous surf expected along portions of the East Coast. No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America.
No overnight or daytime local storm reports of severe weather (hail, damaging wind, tornado). Residual coastal and marine products remain. Quiet Pulse holds.

Live Status

As of this Sunday afternoon desk, October 18, 2026 (approximately 8:16 PM PDT / 11:16 PM EDT / 0316Z October 19), the national severe picture remains closed. SPC confirms no severe thunderstorm areas through tonight. An upper-level ridge advances into the southern Appalachians while high pressure stays entrenched from the Gulf Coast states to the Northeast, maintaining dry and cool conditions over much of the continental U.S. Isolated thunderstorms remain possible over south Florida and parts of the Desert Southwest, but no severe threat is forecast.

Water concerns are residual and coastal only. WPC Day 1 probability sits below 5%. River Flood Warnings linger in Florida and Georgia from prior rains. Coastal Flood Warnings and high surf continue along the Outer Banks and adjacent East Coast as the non-tropical low maintains elevated seas and onshore flow. No named tropical cyclone threatens U.S. land. Eastern Pacific Hurricane Trudy remains offshore Mexico with no U.S. impact.

Hotspots

Outer Banks / coastal North Carolina and Virginia: Coastal Flood Warnings, high surf, and rip current risk persist under the developing non-tropical low. Onshore flow and elevated seas continue; no inland severe or flash-flood threat.
Southeast Florida residual: Prior Marginal ERO has dropped. Isolated thunderstorms possible but no severe. Residual standing water and urban ponding from earlier rain; river Flood Warnings on St. Johns and Satilla remain.
Desert Southwest: Isolated thunderstorms possible ahead of a weak upper impulse. Limited moisture and instability preclude severe weather. No flood products active.

Just-Hit

No severe weather reports overnight or today. Preliminary LSRs show marine wind gusts near the Florida Keys and residual flood video in Puerto Rico; nothing convective or severe on the mainland. Prior Mid-Atlantic Slight Risk closed days ago.

Pulse Table

Lane	Status	Notes (as of ~8:16 PM PDT / 11:16 PM EDT / 0316Z 19 Oct 2026)
Tropical	None	No named systems threatening U.S. land or Gulf. Non-tropical low off SE coast may acquire subtropical traits (~40% chance later). Pacific Hurricane Trudy offshore Mexico only. No U.S. tropical watches/warnings.
Severe	Quiet	SPC Day 1 (0100Z Oct 19): NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST. No watches or MDs valid. Thunder limited to southern FL and Southwest.
Flood	Quiet	WPC Day 1 probability <5%. Residual river Flood Warnings (St. Johns near Astor FL, Satilla Atkinson GA). Coastal Flood Warnings NC Outer Banks. No Moderate or higher.

Restoration Read

Primary residual ticket is coastal: high surf, beach erosion, and minor coastal flooding along the Outer Banks and adjacent Mid-Atlantic under the non-tropical low. Inland water is limited to lingering river Flood Warnings in north Florida and southeast Georgia from earlier rains. No convective severe restoration window is open. Verify county-level Coastal Flood and High Surf products before any coastal deployment. Turn around, don’t drown on any residual flooded roads.

What This Is Not

This is a Quiet Pulse. No SPC Slight or higher severe risk, no WPC Moderate or higher excessive rainfall, and no tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf. The non-tropical low keeps lower-threshold coastal and marine lanes open only.

Looking Ahead One Day

SPC Day 2 (valid Monday) continues no severe thunderstorm areas. WPC Day 2 probability of excessive rainfall remains low. The non-tropical low is expected to meander off the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic coast, maintaining high surf, rip currents, and coastal flooding potential through mid-week. No named storm development is expected in the short term.

Rising Queries

Trends unreachable.

Sources

Morning desk: quiet-pulse-2026-10-18-morning. Official products: SPC Day 1 Outlook (spc.noaa.gov), WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (wpc.ncep.noaa.gov), NWS watches/warnings (weather.gov), NHC Tropical Weather Discussion and Outlook (nhc.noaa.gov). All claims date-stamped to October 18–19, 2026 products.

Disclaimer: This is an informational desk summary of official NWS/SPC/WPC/NHC products. Always confirm with local NWS offices and weather.gov for site-specific decisions. Not a forecast or warning.

October 18, 2026

Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Oct 18

Tropical: None · Severe: Quiet · Flood: Quiet

What Changed

Compared with this morning’s quiet-pulse-2026-10-18-morning desk: SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook (latest 0100Z / 7:44 PM CDT Sunday, October 18, 2026, valid 190100Z–191200Z) continues NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST. Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. through tonight. No convective watches or Mesoscale Discussions valid.
WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (issued ~0100 UTC / 8:57 PM EDT Sunday, October 18, 2026, valid 01Z Mon Oct 19–12Z Mon Oct 19) shows the probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance less than 5 percent. Prior Marginal Risk over southeast Florida has dropped off the Day 1 outlook.
Developing storm-force non-tropical low off the southeast U.S. coast continues. NHC Tropical Weather Outlook gives near 0% chance of subtropical development through 48 hours and ~40% through 7 days. High winds, coastal flooding, and dangerous surf expected along portions of the East Coast. No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America.
No overnight or daytime local storm reports of severe weather (hail, damaging wind, tornado). Residual coastal and marine products remain. Quiet Pulse holds.

Live Status

Hotspots

Outer Banks / coastal North Carolina and Virginia: Coastal Flood Warnings, high surf, and rip current risk persist under the developing non-tropical low. Onshore flow and elevated seas continue; no inland severe or flash-flood threat.
Southeast Florida residual: Prior Marginal ERO has dropped. Isolated thunderstorms possible but no severe. Residual standing water and urban ponding from earlier rain; river Flood Warnings on St. Johns and Satilla remain.
Desert Southwest: Isolated thunderstorms possible ahead of a weak upper impulse. Limited moisture and instability preclude severe weather. No flood products active.

Just-Hit

Pulse Table

Lane	Status	Notes (as of ~8:16 PM PDT / 11:16 PM EDT / 0316Z 19 Oct 2026)
Tropical	None	No named systems threatening U.S. land or Gulf. Non-tropical low off SE coast may acquire subtropical traits (~40% chance later). Pacific Hurricane Trudy offshore Mexico only. No U.S. tropical watches/warnings.
Severe	Quiet	SPC Day 1 (0100Z Oct 19): NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST. No watches or MDs valid. Thunder limited to southern FL and Southwest.
Flood	Quiet	WPC Day 1 probability <5%. Residual river Flood Warnings (St. Johns near Astor FL, Satilla Atkinson GA). Coastal Flood Warnings NC Outer Banks. No Moderate or higher.

Restoration Read

What This Is Not

Looking Ahead One Day

Rising Queries

Trends unreachable.

Sources

Disclaimer: This is an informational desk summary of official NWS/SPC/WPC/NHC products. Always confirm with local NWS offices and weather.gov for site-specific decisions. Not a forecast or warning.

October 18, 2026

Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Oct 18 Morning

Tropical: None · Severe: Quiet · Flood: Quiet

What Changed

Compared with the October 17 afternoon pulse and earlier versions of this October 18 morning desk: SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook (latest 0100Z / 7:44 PM CDT Sunday, October 18, 2026, valid 190100Z–191200Z) continues NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST. Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. through tonight. No convective watches or Mesoscale Discussions valid as of latest check.
WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 0100 UTC Monday, October 19, 2026 / 8:57 PM EDT Sunday, valid 01Z Mon Oct 19–12Z Mon Oct 19) shows the probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance less than 5 percent. Prior Marginal Risk over southeast Florida has fully dropped off the Day 1 outlook.
Developing storm-force non-tropical low off the southeast U.S. coast continues. NHC Tropical Weather Outlook (800 PM EDT Sunday, October 18, 2026) gives near 0% chance of subtropical development through 48 hours and 40% through 7 days. High winds, coastal flooding, and dangerous surf expected along portions of the East Coast regardless. No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America.
Residual NWS Flood Warnings remain on the St. Johns River (near Astor, FL; minor occurring, moderate forecast) and Satilla River (Atkinson, GA; minor). Coastal Flood Warnings and High Surf Advisories continue for Ocracoke Island and portions of coastal North Carolina through Tuesday.
No overnight or recent local storm reports of severe weather. Quiet Pulse holds; water concerns remain residual river and coastal only.

Live Status

As of this Sunday evening update to the morning desk, October 18, 2026 (approximately 8:14 PM PDT / 11:14 PM EDT / 0314Z October 19), the national severe picture remains closed. SPC confirms no severe thunderstorm areas through tonight. An upper-level ridge moves into the southern Appalachians while high pressure remains entrenched from the Gulf Coast states to the Northeast, keeping dry and cool conditions over much of the continental U.S. Isolated thunderstorms possible over south Florida and parts of the Desert Southwest, but no severe threat.

Excessive rainfall risk has cleared from the Day 1 WPC outlook. Residual river Flood Warnings linger in north-central Florida and southeast Georgia from prior rains. Coastal Flood Warnings, High Surf Advisories, and beach hazards persist along the Outer Banks as the developing non-tropical low offshore maintains elevated seas and onshore flow. No named tropical cyclone threatens U.S. land. Eastern Pacific Hurricane Trudy remains offshore Mexico with all coastal warnings discontinued; no U.S. impact.

Pulse Table

Lane	Status	Notes (as of ~8:14 PM PDT / 11:14 PM EDT / 0314Z 19 Oct 2026)
Tropical	None	No named systems threatening U.S. land or Gulf. Non-tropical low off SE coast may acquire subtropical traits (40% chance later this week). Pacific Hurricane Trudy offshore Mexico only. No U.S. tropical watches/warnings.
Severe	Quiet	SPC Day 1 (0100Z Oct 19): NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST. No watches valid. Thunder limited to southern FL and Southwest. Prior Mid-Atlantic Slight closed.
Flood	Quiet	WPC Day 1 probability <5%. Residual river Flood Warnings (St. Johns near Astor FL, Satilla Atkinson GA). Coastal Flood Warnings NC Outer Banks. No Moderate or higher ERO.

Rising Queries

Trends unreachable.

Restoration Read

Residual river flooding in north-central Florida and southeast Georgia remains a near-term water concern. Coastal flooding, high surf, and beach erosion will continue along the Outer Banks and portions of the East Coast with the developing offshore low into early next week. Wind damage potential (trees, power lines) possible with gusty onshore flow along coastal Florida and the Carolinas. No widespread severe or higher-end flood event is underway. Standard quiet-day posture: monitor residual water and coastal hazards; no new severe or high-end flood tickets expected.

What This Is Not

This is a Quiet Pulse. No SPC Slight or higher severe risk, no WPC Moderate or higher excessive rainfall, and no tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf.

Informational only — not an official warning. Always confirm with the latest official forecasts from weather.gov, spc.noaa.gov, wpc.ncep.noaa.gov, and nhc.noaa.gov.

October 18, 2026

Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Oct 17

Tropical: None · Severe: Quiet · Flood: Slight

What Changed

Compared with this morning’s quiet-pulse-2026-10-17-morning desk: SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook (latest ~0100Z October 18 / 6 PM PDT Saturday, October 17, 2026, valid 180100Z–181200Z) continues NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST. Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. through tonight. No convective watches or mesoscale discussions are currently valid.
WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 0758 UTC Saturday, October 17, 2026, valid 12Z Oct 17–12Z Oct 18) holds the Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall along portions of the Florida East Coast / Gold Coast. Earlier Flash Flood Warnings and residual Flood Advisories (northern Broward / southeast Palm Beach) have expired as of ~6:45 PM EDT. Deep moisture, diurnal heating, and onshore convergence ahead of the cold front still support 2–3 inch-per-hour rates and localized urban flooding potential as cells progress south through tonight.
The developing non-tropical low / Nor’easter off the Carolina coast remains the multi-day story. NHC Tropical Weather Outlook rates formation chance near 0 percent through 48 hours and low (~30 percent) through 7 days. No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning is in effect for the U.S. coast or Gulf. High winds, coastal flooding, and dangerous surf are expected along portions of the East Coast regardless.
NWS High Wind Warnings and Wind Advisories remain active in Southern California mountains and passes (easterly gusts 45–60 mph through this evening) and along the Outer Banks / coastal North Carolina (north winds 25–40 mph, gusts 45–55 mph through Monday). No new organized severe or Moderate-or-higher flood thresholds have opened.
Nothing material has moved on the severe lane. The picture remains Quiet Pulse.

Live Status

As of the Saturday afternoon desk, October 17, 2026 (approximately 8:14 PM PDT / 11:14 PM EDT / 0314Z October 18), the national severe picture stays closed. SPC confirms no severe thunderstorm areas through tonight and lists no valid convective watches. High pressure dominates much of the CONUS outside residual frontal and coastal activity.

Water remains the primary residual concern. The WPC Slight Risk holds on the Florida East Coast where the cold front is progressing south. Scattered thunderstorms capable of heavy rates and localized urban flash flooding continue through tonight into early Sunday, particularly southeast Florida metro areas from Port St. Lucie through Miami. Earlier short-fuse products have expired; residual drainage continues in poor-drainage urban areas.

The developing coastal low off the Carolinas is building the multi-day wind and coastal flood story. Onshore flow will drive periods of rain, gusty winds (locally 45–55+ mph on the Outer Banks), high surf, rip currents, and beach erosion along the Mid-Atlantic and Outer Banks into early next week. NHC is monitoring possible subtropical development but rates the near-term chance near zero.

Hotspots

Florida East Coast: WPC Slight ERO. Localized flash flooding possible with slow-moving thunderstorms ahead of the cold front. Urban streets, roads, and small streams most vulnerable through tonight.

Outer Banks and coastal North Carolina: NWS Wind Advisories (gusts 45–55 mph) through Monday. Developing Nor’easter brings coastal flooding, high surf, and beach erosion potential.

Southern California: Residual High Wind Warnings and Wind Advisories for easterly/Santa Ana regime in mountains and passes (gusts 45–60 mph) through this evening.

Pulse Table

Lane	Status	Notes (as of ~8:14 PM PDT / 11:14 PM EDT / 0314Z 18 Oct 2026)
Tropical	None	No named systems threatening U.S. land or Gulf. Non-tropical low off SE coast may acquire subtropical traits (low chance). Pacific Hurricane Trudy offshore Mexico only. No U.S. tropical watches/warnings.
Severe	Quiet	SPC Day 1 (0100Z Oct 18): NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST. No watches valid. Thunder limited to southern FL and Baja moisture plume. Prior Mid-Atlantic Slight closed.
Flood	Slight	WPC Day 1 Slight Risk Florida East Coast / Gold Coast. 2–3″/hr rates possible; localized urban flash flooding. No Moderate or higher. Earlier FFWs/Advisories expired.

Rising Queries

Trends unreachable.

Restoration Read

Localized urban flooding on the Florida East Coast and wind damage potential (trees, power lines, unsecured objects) on the Outer Banks and Southern California mountains remain the near-term concerns. Coastal flooding and beach erosion will build with the Nor’easter into early next week. No widespread severe or higher-end flood event is underway.

What This Is Not

This is a Quiet Pulse. No SPC Slight or higher severe risk, no WPC Moderate or higher excessive rainfall, and no tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf. The Slight ERO on the Florida East Coast and the developing Nor’easter keep flood and coastal lanes open at lower thresholds only.

Looking Ahead One Day

Sunday holds no severe thunderstorm areas on SPC Day 2. WPC Day 2 carries a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall over a portion of south Florida. The coastal low continues to influence East Coast winds, surf, and potential flooding into early next week. No tropical development indicated for the U.S. coast or Gulf in the near term.

Sources

Morning desk: quiet-pulse-2026-10-17-morning
SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/
WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/ero.php
NHC Tropical Weather Outlook: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
NWS watches and warnings summary: https://www.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=usa&wwa=all

Informational only — not an official warning. This is an afternoon desk summary of public National Weather Service, Storm Prediction Center, Weather Prediction Center, and National Hurricane Center products as of approximately 8:14 PM PDT on October 17, 2026. Always confirm with the latest official forecasts and local authorities. Turn around, don’t drown.

October 17, 2026

Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Oct 17 Morning

Tropical: None · Severe: Quiet · Flood: Slight

What Changed

Compared with the October 16 afternoon desk and earlier versions of this morning desk: SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook (latest 0754 PM CDT Saturday, October 17, 2026 / 0100Z October 18, valid 180100Z–181200Z) continues NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST. Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. through tonight. No convective watches or mesoscale discussions are currently valid.
WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 0758 UTC Saturday, October 17, 2026, valid 12Z Oct 17–12Z Oct 18) holds the Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall along portions of the Florida East Coast / Gold Coast. Deep moisture, diurnal heating, and onshore convergence ahead of the cold front continue to support 2–3 inch-per-hour rates. Localized urban flash flooding remains possible through tonight; residual Flood Advisories may linger as cells progress south.
The developing non-tropical low / Nor’easter off the southeast U.S. coast remains the multi-day story. NHC Tropical Weather Outlook rates formation chance near 0 percent through 48 hours and low through 7 days. No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning is in effect for the U.S. coast or Gulf of America. High winds, coastal flooding, and dangerous surf expected along portions of the East Coast regardless of development.
NWS High Wind Warnings continue in Southern California (Santa Ana / easterly gusts to 50–60 mph in mountains and passes through this evening). Wind Advisories and coastal flood potential persist for Outer Banks / coastal North Carolina. Nothing material has moved on the severe lane. Quiet Pulse holds.

Live Status

As of this Saturday evening update to the October 17, 2026 morning desk (approximately 8:13 PM PDT / 11:13 PM EDT / 0313Z October 18), the national severe picture stays closed. SPC confirms no severe thunderstorm areas through tonight and lists no valid convective watches. High pressure dominates much of the CONUS outside residual frontal and coastal activity.

Water remains the primary residual concern. The WPC Slight Risk holds on the Florida East Coast where the cold front is progressing south. Scattered thunderstorms capable of heavy rates continue through tonight into early Sunday, with localized urban and street flooding possible especially in southeast Florida metro areas. Overnight LSRs show no significant severe reports.

The multi-day story is the developing coastal low / Nor’easter off the Carolinas. Potential coastal flooding, beach erosion, gusty winds, high surf, and rip currents along the Mid-Atlantic into early next week. NHC monitors for possible subtropical traits at low odds; no U.S. tropical warnings in effect.

Pulse Table

Lane	Status	Notes (as of ~8:13 PM PDT / 11:13 PM EDT / 0313Z 18 Oct 2026)
Tropical	None	No named systems threatening U.S. land or Gulf. Non-tropical low off SE coast may acquire subtropical traits (low chance). Pacific Hurricane Trudy offshore Mexico only. No U.S. tropical watches/warnings.
Severe	Quiet	SPC Day 1 (0100Z Oct 18): NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST. No watches valid. Thunder limited to southern FL and Baja moisture plume. Prior Mid-Atlantic Slight closed.
Flood	Slight	WPC Day 1 Slight Risk Florida East Coast / Gold Coast. 2–3″/hr rates possible; localized urban flash flooding. No Moderate or higher. Residual Advisories after earlier FFWs.

Hotspots

Florida East Coast: WPC Slight ERO. Heavy rain rates from slow-moving thunderstorms ahead of the cold front. Localized urban flooding possible through tonight, especially coastal metro areas from Port St. Lucie south through Miami.

Carolina / Mid-Atlantic coast: Developing Nor’easter. Wind Advisories, coastal flood potential, high surf, beach erosion into early next week. Outer Banks strongest winds.

Southern California: Ongoing High Wind Warnings (Santa Ana regime). Non-convective tree and power impacts possible in mountains and passes through this evening.

Rising Queries

Trends unreachable.

What This Is Not

This is a Quiet Pulse. No SPC Slight or higher severe risk, no WPC Moderate or higher excessive rainfall, and no tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf. The Slight ERO on the Florida East Coast and developing Nor’easter keep lower-threshold flood and coastal lanes open only.

Looking Ahead One Day

Sunday holds no severe thunderstorm areas on SPC Day 2. WPC Day 2 carries Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall over a portion of south Florida. The coastal low continues to influence East Coast winds, surf, and potential flooding into early next week. No tropical development indicated for the U.S. coast or Gulf in the near term.

Sources

Sources: SPC Day 1 Outlook (No Severe), NWS watches/warnings, WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (Slight FL East Coast), NHC Tropical Weather Outlook. Prior desk: Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Oct 16.

Informational only — not an official warning. This is a morning desk summary of public National Weather Service, Storm Prediction Center, Weather Prediction Center, and National Hurricane Center products as of approximately 8:13 PM PDT on October 17, 2026. Always confirm with the latest official forecasts and local authorities. Turn around, don’t drown.

October 17, 2026

Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Oct 16

Tropical: None · Severe: Quiet · Flood: Marginal

What Changed

Compared with the morning desk (quiet-pulse-2026-10-16-morning) and the earlier afternoon snapshot: SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook issued 0750 PM CDT Friday, October 16, 2026 (0100Z October 17, valid 170100Z–171200Z) shows NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST. The prior Slight Risk over the Mid-Atlantic into southern New England has ended as the strong cold front progressed offshore and associated convection weakened or moved offshore.
Severe Thunderstorm Watches 686 and 687 expired earlier. As of ~0215Z October 17, SPC lists no convective watches currently valid. No mesoscale discussions are in effect for severe potential.
Preliminary local storm reports from the earlier convective day logged numerous wind damage reports (trees, wires, power lines) primarily across Pennsylvania and into New Jersey, Massachusetts, and Connecticut. No tornado or hail reports. Severe potential is now low.
WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 0059Z October 17 / 8:59 PM EDT) maintains Marginal Risk only across portions of southeast Florida. Convection peaked; heavy rainfall coverage declining overnight. Localized urban flash-flood risk may continue a few hours where slow-moving cells drop 2–3 inches in an hour. No Moderate or higher. Prior West Texas Moderate closed.
Tropical lane unchanged: no tropical storm or hurricane watches or warnings on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America. NHC: no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf; formation not expected next 7 days. Eastern Pacific Hurricane Trudy (approaching Mexico) and remnants of Simon remain offshore Mexico only.

Live Status

As of this Friday evening update to the October 16, 2026 afternoon desk (approximately 8:15 PM PDT / 11:15 PM EDT / 0315Z October 17), the severe weather lane has closed. The SPC 0100Z Day 1 outlook confirms no severe thunderstorm areas are forecast through the remainder of the night. A strong cold front has swept the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England, with the low-topped convective line having weakened or moved offshore. Isolated thunderstorms may linger, but post-frontal conditions limit any severe risk.

Flood remains the only open lane at Marginal over southeast Florida, where high moisture supported earlier heavy rain rates. Coverage is declining overnight. No higher-end excessive rainfall risk is in effect. Non-convective High Wind Warnings continue in parts of southern California and Arizona for gusts to 65–75 mph in mountain passes and foothills, separate from convective threats. No tropical systems threaten U.S. land or the Gulf of America.

Hotspots

Southeast Florida residual: WPC Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall. Localized urban flash flooding possible for a few more hours from slow-moving cells. Convection has peaked and is weakening.

Mid-Atlantic / southern New England just-hit: Earlier Slight Risk and Watches 686/687 produced scattered damaging winds. Multiple tree and wire reports across Pennsylvania into New Jersey and southern New England. Line has exited; residual cleanup only.

Southern California high winds: Ongoing High Wind Warnings in mountain and valley areas with gusts 50–75 mph. Non-convective; potential for tree and power impacts.

Just Hit

The organized Mid-Atlantic Slight Risk window closed this evening. SPC preliminary reports confirm wind damage (trees and wires down) across central and eastern Pennsylvania counties, Hunterdon County NJ, and portions of Massachusetts and Connecticut. No tornado or hail reports. Short-fuse warnings expired with the watches. Prior West Texas Moderate ERO and Midwest residual remain closed.

Pulse Table

Lane	Status	Notes (as of ~8:15 PM PDT / 11:15 PM EDT / 0315Z 17 Oct 2026)
Tropical	None	No named systems threatening U.S. land or Gulf. Atlantic, Caribbean, and Gulf of America quiet; formation not expected next 7 days. Pacific systems offshore Mexico only. Hurricane Warnings limited to Mexican waters.
Severe	Quiet	SPC Day 1 (0100Z Oct 17): NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST. Prior Slight Risk and Watches 686/687 closed. Line exited or weakened. Numerous earlier wind LSRs (trees/wires) in PA, NJ, MA, CT. No current watches.
Flood	Marginal	WPC Day 1 Marginal Risk southeast Florida only. Convection peaked; declining overnight. Localized urban risk possible briefly. No Moderate or higher. Prior West Texas Moderate closed.

Restoration Read

Quiet Pulse on the severe side. Residual work is tree and wire cleanup from the earlier Mid-Atlantic wind event across Pennsylvania into New Jersey and southern New England. Flood remains Marginal only in southeast Florida and does not drive a national water ticket. No tropical claims. Non-convective High Wind Warnings in California and Arizona are separate events. Standard quiet-day posture: check local NWS for any lingering Flood Advisories in Florida and assess residual damage reports. Turn around, don’t drown remains the standing public message.

Rising Queries

Trends unreachable.

What This Is Not

This is a Quiet Pulse. The SPC Day 1 outlook holds no severe thunderstorm areas. Flood is Marginal only over southeast Florida. No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning affects the U.S. coast or Gulf of America. The earlier Mid-Atlantic Slight Risk and associated watches have closed.

Looking Ahead One Day

Saturday holds no severe thunderstorm areas on SPC Day 2. WPC Day 2 carries a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall along portions of the Florida east coast. Colder air filters in behind the front, with frost and freeze potential in parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast overnight into Sunday. No tropical development indicated for the U.S. coast or Gulf.

Sources

Sources: SPC Day 1 Outlook (0100Z No Severe), expired watches 686/687, LSRs, NWS watches/warnings, WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, NHC. Morning desk: Storm Updates: Mid-Atlantic Slight — Oct 16 Morning.

Informational only — not an official warning. This is an afternoon desk summary of public National Weather Service, Storm Prediction Center, Weather Prediction Center, and National Hurricane Center products as of approximately 8:15 PM PDT on October 16, 2026. Always confirm with the latest official forecasts and local authorities. Turn around, don’t drown.

October 16, 2026