Tag: Storm Damage

  • Storm Updates: Kansas–Oklahoma Watch 670 + Midwest–Montana Flood Moderate — Saturday, September 19, 2026

    This is a live Saturday afternoon snapshot of U.S. local-storm activity as of Saturday, September 19, 2026. The organized pulse is on the Central Plains cold front. The Storm Prediction Center 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook holds a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of the central Plains and central High Plains, covering about 56,800 square miles and nearly 2 million people in the Slight contour, with Wichita, Topeka, Lawrence, St. Joseph, and Salina inside the risk area. Severe Thunderstorm Watch 670 is in effect from 3:20 p.m. until 11:00 p.m. CDT for central into northeast Kansas, western into north-central Oklahoma, and the eastern Texas Panhandle.

    These are county-scale thunderstorms and training rain, not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. Restoration exposure this afternoon and tonight is wind-driven roof and siding work, hail dents on the High Plains, trees on wires in the Southeast leftover cells, and interior water where WPC Moderate flood-risk storms stall over eastern Iowa, northern Illinois, northern Indiana, and southern Montana. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

    What is live this afternoon

    Watch 670, issued 3:20 p.m. CDT Saturday, September 19, 2026, is the live convective watch. Primary threat language is scattered damaging winds with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible, plus isolated large hail to 1.5 inches. The watch box is drawn roughly along and 65 miles either side of a line from 115 miles west-southwest of Alva, Oklahoma, to 35 miles east-southeast of Manhattan, Kansas. SPC Mesoscale Discussion 2309, issued 2:34 p.m. CDT, had already flagged northwest Oklahoma into central and northeast Kansas for watch consideration; that discussion is now overtaken by the watch itself.

    The 2000 UTC outlook summary is unchanged from mid-morning: thunderstorms with scattered severe wind gusts and large hail are possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the central Plains. A Marginal Risk still wraps Indianapolis, Columbus, Denver, Kansas City, and Atlanta. Ohio Valley convection has struggled to stay organized along a surging outflow boundary from north of Columbus into southern Illinois and Indiana; SPC trimmed the northern edge of the Marginal there after temperatures behind the outflow fell into the upper 70s.

    The Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, updated 1602 UTC Saturday, September 19, 2026, holds a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall in portions of the Midwest — particularly eastern Iowa, northern Illinois, and northern Indiana — and a second Moderate Risk over portions of southern Montana. Guidance cited by WPC includes moderate-to-high probabilities of totals exceeding 5 inches in the better Midwest cores, with some low-end probabilities of 8 inches. Day 2 outlook language eases that to a Slight Risk over parts of the Midwest and Ohio Valley on Sunday.

    Hotspot 1 — Central into northeast Kansas, western into north-central Oklahoma, eastern Texas Panhandle

    This is the live watch. A cold front is dropping south from southwest Iowa through southwest Kansas and the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles. Ahead of it the airmass is seasonably moist and, by mid-afternoon, moderately unstable. SPC expects a few short-lived supercells early, then high-based storms and line segments capable of 60 to 75 mph gusts. MD 2309 noted temperatures near 100 F from Texas into southern Kansas, dewpoints near 60 F in the eastern Texas Panhandle and mid-60s toward Wichita, and most-probable peak gusts of 65–80 mph with hail of 1.00–1.75 inches.

    Cities and counties to watch: Wichita, Topeka, Lawrence, Salina, Manhattan, and St. Joseph on the Missouri side of the Slight contour; Alva and northwest Oklahoma; the eastern Texas Panhandle. A 67 mph gust was already measured 3 miles south-southwest of Freedom in Woodward County, Oklahoma, at 2040 UTC.

    Restoration read: wind first, hail second. Stage tarps, generators, and tree crews before dark across the watch. Photograph roofs in remaining daylight only if it is safe. Treat any ZIP that also sits under training rain as a water job by morning.

    Hotspot 2 — Eastern Iowa, northern Illinois, northern Indiana flood Moderate

    This is the water desk, not the watch. WPC’s 16Z update kept a Moderate Risk of 1-to-6-hour rainfall exceeding flash-flood guidance over eastern Iowa, northern Illinois, and northern Indiana. A surface low over the middle Mississippi Valley and enhanced forcing ahead of it support intense cores and high instantaneous rates. Urban streets, low-water crossings, and small streams fail first. Sunday’s Day 2 ERO drops this corridor to Slight, so tonight into Sunday morning is the higher-end window.

    Restoration read: extraction and drying, not hail claims. If a cell trains over the same ZIP for more than an hour, treat it as an occupied-structure water job. Do not send the same crew to the Kansas watch and a Quad Cities flood call without checking which county actually has a warning now.

    Hotspot 3 — Central High Plains and southern Montana

    SPC holds the Slight Risk west into the central High Plains. Low-level easterly flow is holding upper-50s to low-60s dewpoints. A shortwave moving out of the Great Basin is expected to organize a loosely cellular band into a linear cluster, with hail early and wind later, and some indication the activity continues into western Kansas overnight. Preliminary LSRs already include 1.25-inch hail 5 miles north of Matheson in Elbert County, Colorado, at 2044 UTC, and measured gusts of 59 and 66 mph near Byers in Arapahoe County around 2003–2006 UTC.

    Separately, WPC expanded the inherited Moderate excessive-rainfall risk over southern and southeast Montana, matching HREF/RRFS probabilities of rainfall exceeding 3 inches and low-end probabilities over 5 inches. That is a High Plains flood and debris-flow desk in burn scars and small drainages, not the Kansas watch.

    Restoration read: Colorado and western Kansas are wind-and-hail tickets tonight. Southern Montana is water and mud. Do not conflate the two.

    Just hit

    SPC today’s storm reports (1200 UTC September 19 through the afternoon) show no tornadoes as of this desk. Hail: quarter-size near Rome in Floyd County, Georgia, at 1935 UTC; 1.25-inch north of Matheson, Colorado. Wind: trees and power lines down at Signal Mountain and South Pittsburg, Tennessee; trees and blocked roads in Etowah and Jackson Counties, Alabama; multiple trees down near Warm Springs and Highland Park, Georgia; 59–66 mph near Byers, Colorado; 67 mph near Freedom, Oklahoma. Those tree and wire reports are already tickets.

    A morning Storm Tracker for this calendar day is already on the site: Storm Updates: Kansas Slight Risk + Midwest–Montana Flood Moderate — Saturday, September 19, 2026 (Morning). This afternoon post is the watch-and-LSR update, not a reprint of Friday.

    Pulse table

    RegionMain threatsSPC / NWS levelStatus this afternoon
    Central / NE Kansas, W / NC Oklahoma, E Texas PanhandleDamaging wind 60–75 mph, isolated 1.5-inch hailSlight + Watch 670 to 11 p.m. CDTLive watch
    Eastern Iowa / northern Illinois / northern IndianaFlash flood, training heavy rainWPC Moderate excessive rainfallTonight into Sunday morning
    Southern / southeast MontanaFlash flood, 3–5 inch coresWPC Moderate excessive rainfallToday into tonight
    Central High Plains / NE ColoradoWind, marginally severe hailSlight / MarginalLive LSRs near Byers and Matheson
    Ohio Valley (IN / OH / IL outflow)Isolated damaging gustsMarginal, trimmed on north edgePoorly organized
    Southern Appalachians / SoutheastTrees, 50–60 mph wet microburstsMarginal / local SVRJust-hit trees in TN, AL, GA
    Atlantic vs. U.S. mainlandTD Six near the Azores; no U.S. land threatNo mainland tropical watchQuiet on the coast

    What this means for restoration teams

    Wind at 60–75 mph inside Watch 670 is roof, siding, gutter, and tree-on-structure work from Wichita through Topeka and across northwest Oklahoma. Hail to 1.5 inches is a vehicle and roof-dent ticket, not a regional catastrophe. Midwest Moderate flood risk is wet drywall and a 24–48 hour mold clock if occupied structures take water. Southern Montana is the same water problem on different terrain.

    For teams in or near Watch 670: stage before 5 p.m. CDT, not after the first warning. Property owners should photograph damage in daylight if it is safe, call the carrier, and start extraction the same night if water is inside. Southeast tree jobs from this afternoon’s Alabama, Georgia, and Tennessee cells are already on the board.

    What this is not

    This is not a regional derecho and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. Tropical Depression Six is several hundred miles southwest of the Azores with 35 mph winds and no coastal watches for the United States. The work tonight, if it verifies, will be scattered: a wind swath through a Kansas or Oklahoma county, a flooded intersection where Iowa or Illinois cells train, isolated hail on the High Plains, leftover trees in the Tennessee Valley. That is the local-storm pattern this desk should staff.

    Looking ahead

    Sunday’s SPC Day 2 outlook remains a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the central High Plains and southern Plains. WPC Day 2 excessive rainfall eases the Midwest corridor to Slight. Day 3 convective risk is Marginal. Later in the week WPC language flags a wetter pattern for the Southern High Plains and Rockies, and a frontal system toward the East midweek. Watch the next Storm Tracker rather than assuming Watch 670 is the last line of the weekend.

    Sources and how to verify

    Primary sources dated Saturday, September 19, 2026: NOAA Storm Prediction Center 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook; Severe Thunderstorm Watch 670; Mesoscale Discussion 2309; SPC today’s local storm reports; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook updated 1602 UTC; National Hurricane Center advisories on Tropical Depression Six (Azores, no U.S. land threat). Morning desk on this calendar day: September 19 morning Storm Updates.

    Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watch, and LSRs, Watch 670 text, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay.

    Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

  • Flash Flood Warning: Cibola County NM Area Until 5:00 PM MDT

    Flash Flood Warning: Cibola County NM Area Until 5:00 PM MDT

    Live flash flood warning: Eastern Cibola County, New Mexico

    The National Weather Service in Albuquerque has issued a Flash Flood Warning for eastern Cibola County in west central New Mexico, effective until 5:00 PM MDT on Saturday, September 19, 2026. This is the exact scenario restoration teams see most often on the interior flooding side of their business: fast water, short notice, and neighborhoods that flood before anyone gets a second phone call. This is a live snapshot as of September 19, 2026, 2:20 PM PDT. Conditions change fast — always verify with the National Weather Service for your specific county or ZIP code.

    Laguna Pueblo — Flash Flood Warning

    Issued by NWS Albuquerque NM at 2:04 PM MDT on September 19, 2026, the warning expires at 5:00 PM MDT. Severity is rated Severe, with flooding Likely and an Immediate urgency — NWS places this among the most serious short-fuse categories it issues.

    At 2:04 PM MDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy rain over and near Laguna Pueblo, including Interstate 25. Between 1 and 1.5 inches of rain have already fallen in the warned area, and additional amounts of 0.5 to 0.75 inches are possible. NWS states that flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly. The warning source is radar indicated.

    Communities in the warned footprint include Laguna Pueblo, New Laguna, Mesita, and Paraje. The warning also explicitly covers Interstate 40 between Mile Markers 108 and 118 — drivers on that corridor should treat any water over the roadway as impassable.

    Expected impacts, per NWS: flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses, as well as other poor-drainage and low-lying areas. This is high-desert country, which matters for how fast water moves — dry washes and arroyos can go from empty to violent in minutes on the kind of rainfall totals this warning reports.

    The VTEC identifier for this warning is /O.NEW.KABQ.FF.W.0159.260919T2004Z-260919T2300Z/. Check the alert directly through the NWS Albuquerque office page and the official alert source at api.weather.gov.

    Stay safe tonight

    Turn around, don’t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Never drive through flooded roadways — water that looks shallow can hide a washed-out roadbed, and a stalled vehicle in a low-water crossing can become a rescue call in seconds. If you are on I-40 between mile markers 108 and 118 and encounter water across the highway, stop before the water, not in it.

    If water enters your home: stay out of standing water where electricity may be present, avoid the basement or lower level until water recedes and power is confirmed off, and photograph everything before cleanup — documentation matters for insurance. Then call a local restoration contractor. Water left sitting doesn’t wait for business hours; it starts a second wave of damage within a day as drywall wicks it upward and materials that look fine begin to swell and smell.

    If you smell natural gas, hear hissing, or see structural cracking, get out and call 911 rather than re-entering to retrieve belongings.

    What this means for restoration teams

    This is the Laguna Pueblo / I-40 corridor exposure, and it lines up with the bread-and-butter water job: interior water intrusion into homes and pueblo structures, saturated drywall and insulation where adobe and stucco exteriors take on wind-driven rain, and a mold window that opens within 24 to 48 hours if wet materials don’t get dried properly. Flash-flood jobs along a highway corridor also bring the underpass-and-low-grade commercial sites that call late — parking garages, roadside businesses, and drainage-adjacent storage.

    The play for New Mexico-area contractors: stage equipment now and pre-position drying assets before the warning expires at 5:00 PM MDT — crews that roll after the calls stack up lose the first wave. Keep an on-call rotation through the night, because water-intrusion discoveries keep coming as people get home from work and walk into wet carpet. On the first call, capture the essentials before anything else: address, water source (groundwater, roof intrusion, drainage backup), and the affected areas of the structure.

    Tribal-land access realities apply in and around Laguna Pueblo — respect access protocols, coordinate with whoever the homeowner points you to on site, and keep it simple and professional. Field discipline stays the same as anywhere else: photo-document before mitigation, moisture-map every affected room, and keep the homeowner’s payment responsibility clear in writing before work starts. In adobe and stucco construction especially, what looks like a dry surface can still hold deep moisture — meter readings before you close anything up, not after the truck rolls away.

    Local emergency contacts

    Cibola County Office of Emergency Management — the county’s emergency management office in Grants. Main line: 505-285-2558 (alternate 505-285-7944), per the New Mexico Office of Emergency Management county contact list. The county uses the Hyper-Reach notification system for emergency alerts — residents can call or text 505-209-8309 to enroll. For life-threatening emergencies, dial 911.

    FEMA & federal assistance

    If this storm damages your home or business, the FEMA Helpline is 1-800-621-3362 (7 a.m.–10 p.m. local, 7 days a week). You can also start at DisasterAssistance.gov, use the FEMA app, or visit fema.gov/drc to find disaster recovery centers. Basic eligibility: citizenship or qualified status, identity verification, proof of occupancy or ownership, and unmet needs not covered by insurance. Apply as soon as it is safe to do so — you do not need to wait for cleanup to be finished.

    Looking ahead

    The warning expires at 5:00 PM MDT — but the end of the warning is not the end of the risk. Runoff in the high desert keeps moving after the rain stops: arroyos and small creeks can crest later in the evening, and saturated ground means any additional round of storms overnight floods faster than the first. Watch the sky and the NWS Albuquerque office page into the evening hours; the next update lands through the normal NWS alerting channels if conditions re-develop.

    For contractors, the demand window is worth planning around: water-intrusion calls typically start within hours of water receding and keep coming for days as people discover damage — the garage they don’t open until Monday, the guest room they don’t walk into until the weekend. First-call capture discipline tonight is what fills the schedule next week.

    Sources & how to verify

    This post is built entirely from the official NWS alert: the Flash Flood Warning issued by NWS Albuquerque and the NWS Albuquerque NM office page. To verify for your own county or ZIP code, go to weather.gov and enter your ZIP, or check your local NWS office page directly. Warnings move fast — never rely on this post alone for current conditions.

    This post is for informational purposes and is not an official weather warning. Always follow instructions from local authorities and the National Weather Service.

  • Flash Flood Warning: Sierra County NM Area Until 5:00 PM MDT

    Flash Flood Warning: Sierra County NM Area Until 5:00 PM MDT

    Flash Flood Warning: Sierra County NM Area Until 5:00 PM MDT

    The National Weather Service office in El Paso, Texas/Santa Teresa, New Mexico has issued a Flash Flood Warning for North Central Sierra County in south central New Mexico, effective until 5:00 PM MDT on Saturday, September 19, 2026. Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy rain, with up to 1.3 inches of rain already fallen and flash flooding ongoing or expected to begin shortly. For restoration teams in southern New Mexico, this is the exact interior-flooding job profile — arroyo-fed water in rural structures, saturated adobe and drywall, and a mold clock that starts ticking within a day.

    This is a live snapshot as of September 19, 2026, 2:20 PM PDT. Conditions change fast — always verify with the National Weather Service for your specific county or ZIP code.

    North Central Sierra County — Flash Flood Warning

    Issuing office: NWS El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM (https://www.weather.gov/epz/). Issued: 3:01 PM MDT, September 19, 2026. Expires: 5:00 PM MDT, September 19, 2026. VTEC code: /O.NEW.KEPZ.FF.W.0149.260919T2101Z-260919T2300Z/. Severity is listed as Severe, certainty Likely, urgency Immediate.

    What the radar shows: At 3:01 PM MDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Up to 1.3 inches of rain have fallen. Additional rainfall of up to 1 inch is possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly. The hazard source is radar indicated.

    Location in the path: Alamosa Canyon.

    Expected impacts, verbatim from the alert: flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor drainage and low-lying areas.

    Read the official alert text at the NWS API: https://api.weather.gov/alerts/urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.c252334f25d5e15578c0656cb9ecd27dff12178c.001.1

    Stay safe during flash flooding

    Turn around, don’t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Never attempt to drive through water covering a roadway — the depth is unknowable from the driver’s seat, and a foot of moving water can sweep a vehicle off the road.

    Remain alert for flooding even in locations not receiving rain. In Sierra County, arroyos, streams, and rivers can become raging killer currents in a matter of minutes, even from distant rainfall. If you are near Alamosa Canyon or any dry wash, move to higher ground now and stay there until the warning expires.

    If water enters your home or building: stay out of standing water where electricity may be present — water and live electrical systems are a lethal combination. Avoid basements and low rooms until water recedes and power is confirmed off. Photograph everything before any cleanup begins — thorough documentation matters for insurance claims. Then call a local restoration contractor; water left sitting starts a second wave of damage within a day, and in the desert Southwest, wicking up adobe and stucco walls begins quickly.

    What this means for restoration teams

    A radar-indicated flash flood warning over rural Sierra County is the classic arroyo-driven interior water-intrusion profile. The mechanism here isn’t a river overflowing its banks — it’s fast-moving runoff from thunderstorms collecting in normally dry washes like Alamosa Canyon and spilling into low-lying structures. In rural south-central New Mexico, that means single-story adobe and stucco homes, older foundations without modern drainage, and dirt or gravel access roads that become impassable while the work order is still warm.

    Damage categories to expect: interior water intrusion at the slab line and through door thresholds; saturated adobe, stucco, drywall, and insulation along lower wall sections; water pushing under flooring and into crawl spaces. The mold clock runs 24 to 48 hours in this region — once water wicks into porous wall materials, drying assets need to be on site fast or the category of the loss escalates.

    The play: stage equipment now rather than waiting for the first call. Pre-position air movers and dehumidifiers, keep an on-call rotation running through the evening, and plan for the rural staging reality of Sierra County — crews traveling out from Truth or Consequences or Hatch face flooded low-water crossings and washouts that can double response times. Fuel up, confirm vehicle staging on high ground, and confirm which low crossings your route uses before dispatch.

    First-call capture: on the first call, capture three things every time — the service address, the water source (arroyo runoff, wash overflow, standing rainfall, or intrusion through a specific entry point), and the affected areas (rooms, wall sections, flooring types). That record drives the loss category, the drying plan, and the insurance documentation.

    Field discipline: photo-document every affected surface before mitigation begins, moisture-map every affected room rather than just the visibly wet ones, and keep the homeowner’s payment responsibility clear in writing before work starts. In a rural county with limited contractor coverage, clear documentation and clear terms are what separate a clean claim from a disputed one.

    FEMA & federal assistance

    If your home or business takes serious damage, federal help may be available after a disaster declaration. The FEMA Helpline is 1-800-621-3362 (7 a.m.–10 p.m. local time, 7 days a week). You can also apply and check status at DisasterAssistance.gov, use the FEMA mobile app, or find a recovery center at fema.gov/drc.

    Basic eligibility requirements include U.S. citizenship or qualified non-citizen status, identity verification, proof of occupancy or ownership, and unmet needs not covered by insurance. Apply as soon as it’s safe to do so — you do not have to wait for the full extent of damage to be assessed.

    Looking ahead

    The warning runs through 5:00 PM MDT Saturday. When a flash flood warning expires, the hazard doesn’t always end with it — water moves downhill after the rain stops, so creeks and arroyos in Sierra County can keep running high into the evening even once the storms pass. Watch for additional thunderstorm rounds later today: the monsoon pattern in southern New Mexico can refire over the same terrain, and a second wave of rainfall onto saturated ground floods faster than the first.

    The next NWS updates will land through the El Paso/Santa Teresa office page and the regular NWS alert feed — check weather.gov and enter your county or ZIP code for the current status before traveling anywhere near the warned area tonight.

    The demand window: water-intrusion calls typically start within hours of water receding and keep coming for days as people discover damage — warped flooring, musty odors, wicking walls. Contractors serving Sierra County should expect the call volume to build through Saturday evening and into early next week.

    Sources & how to verify

    To verify for your own county or ZIP code, go to weather.gov and enter your location, or pull the current alerts feed from your local NWS office page.

    This post is for informational purposes and is not an official weather warning. Always follow instructions from local authorities and the National Weather Service.

  • Flash Flood Warning: Cochran County TX Area Until 6:15 PM CDT

    Flash Flood Warning: Cochran County TX Area Until 6:15 PM CDT

    A Flash Flood Warning is active for northeastern Cochran County in northwestern Texas, issued by NWS Lubbock TX at 4:12 PM CDT on September 19, 2026 and running through 6:15 PM CDT. This is the kind of warning that feeds interior water jobs: Doppler-indicated thunderstorms dropping heavy rain on ground that has already taken 1 to 2 inches, with another 1 to 2 inches possible before the warning expires. This is a live snapshot as of September 19, 2026, 2:20 PM PDT. Conditions change fast — always verify with the National Weather Service for your specific county or ZIP code.

    Northeastern Cochran County — Flash Flood Warning

    The National Weather Service in Lubbock, Texas has issued a Flash Flood Warning for northeastern Cochran County, in northwestern Texas. The warning was issued at 4:12 PM CDT on September 19, 2026 and remains in effect until 6:15 PM CDT. Severity is rated Severe, with the flood event classified as Likely and the urgency Immediate.

    Here is the hazard detail, verbatim from the alert: At 4:12 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy rain. Between 1 and 2 inches of rain have fallen. Additional 1 to 2 inches of rain are possible. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly. Source: radar indicated. The VTEC tag reads /O.NEW.KLUB.FF.W.0059.260919T2112Z-260919T2315Z/.

    The locations named in the warning path are Morton and Lehman — the Morton/Lehman corridor in northeastern Cochran County is the focus area.

    Expected impacts, straight from the alert: flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor drainage and low-lying areas. That list is familiar to anyone who has worked a High Plains event: urban street flooding where the grading sends water toward foundations, underpass and low-water-crossing trouble on the highways, and creeks and draws that rise fast on 1 to 2 inches of additional rain.

    The alert source is NWS Lubbock TX alert feed, and the issuing office page is weather.gov/lub. The NWS headline for this warning: “Flash Flood Warning issued September 19 at 4:12PM CDT until September 19 at 6:15PM CDT by NWS Lubbock TX.”

    Stay safe through the evening

    The National Weather Service instruction on this warning is direct: “Turn around, don’t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads.” Do not drive across a flooded street or underpass in the Morton or Lehman area tonight — water depth on pavement is impossible to judge from the driver’s seat, and six inches of moving water is enough to knock an adult off their feet while a foot of water can move a vehicle.

    If water gets into your home, stay out of standing water where electricity may be present. Stay out of the basement until water recedes and the power is confirmed off. Photograph everything before any cleanup begins — room by room, waterlines on walls, damaged contents. Documentation matters for insurance, and photos taken before anything is moved carry the most weight. Once it is safe, call a local restoration contractor: water left sitting starts a second wave of damage within a day.

    The alert asks residents to report observed flooding to local emergency services or law enforcement and request that they pass the information to the National Weather Service when it is safe to do so. Real-time reports sharpen the next round of warnings for the whole county.

    What this means for restoration teams

    This is the signature setup for the interior water jobs restoration contractors see most: heavy rain, radar-indicated, over ground already saturated by 1 to 2 inches, with another 1 to 2 inches possible before 6:15 PM CDT. The impacts NWS lists — small creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets, underpasses, poor drainage and low-lying areas — translate directly into the job tickets that start coming in once the water recedes.

    The play for the Morton/Lehman corridor: stage equipment now rather than after the phones start. Slab-on-grade homes and older properties along low-lying streets take water at the foundation line first — that means saturated drywall low on the walls, wet insulation in crawl spaces and wall cavities, and flooring that looks fine on top while the subfloor drinks it in. Underpass and street flooding sends sediment-laden water into garages and entry levels, which means Category 2 or Category 3 work depending on the water source — verify the source on the first call and document it, because it changes the entire mitigation plan.

    The mold clock matters in West Texas heat. Mold risk on wet porous materials typically develops within 24 to 48 hours of water sitting — that window is the difference between a clean dry-out and a job that grows a second problem. Crews should be ready to get standing water extracted and air movement started the same day, not the next.

    Field discipline for the calls that come in: photo-document everything before mitigation starts — waterlines, affected materials, the source path. Moisture-map every affected room, not just the one with visible water; water travels along base plates and under flooring to rooms that look dry. Capture the address, the water source, and the affected areas on the first call, because callbacks for “we found more” are expensive. And keep the homeowner’s payment responsibility clear in writing before work starts — flood events draw a crowd of out-of-area outfits, and a clean scope agreement protects both sides.

    Demand window: water-intrusion calls typically start within hours of water receding and keep coming for days as people discover damage behind walls and under floors. The low-lying areas and poor-drainage pockets around Morton are where the late discoveries happen — the calls on day three and four are the ones that catch a shop off-guard.

    FEMA & federal assistance

    The FEMA Helpline is 1-800-621-3362, open 7 a.m. to 10 p.m. local time, seven days a week. You can also apply at DisasterAssistance.gov, through the FEMA mobile app, or visit fema.gov/drc to find a Disaster Recovery Center near you.

    Basic eligibility: citizenship or qualified immigration status, identity verification, proof of occupancy or ownership, and unmet needs not covered by insurance. Apply as soon as it is safe to do so — the application can be updated as the full scope of damage becomes clear.

    Looking ahead

    The warning expires at 6:15 PM CDT. When it lifts, the hazard does not end on a clock: creeks and draws can crest after the rain stops, and additional rounds of thunderstorms can trigger a new warning if the atmosphere reloads. Watch overnight for any extension or new issuance from NWS Lubbock, and check weather.gov/lub before any evening travel across the county.

    The next NWS update lands when conditions warrant — new warnings or extensions post to the same alert feed and the office page. For restoration operators, the demand note bears repeating: water-intrusion calls typically start within hours of water receding and keep coming for days as people discover damage. Keep an on-call rotation through the morning and pre-position drying assets tonight so the first calls do not become missed calls.

    Sources & how to verify

    To verify for your own county or ZIP code, go to weather.gov, enter your location, and check the active alerts box — or go straight to your local NWS office page for the latest warnings.

    This post is for informational purposes and is not an official weather warning. Always follow instructions from local authorities and the National Weather Service.

  • Flash Flood Warning: Jeff Davis County TX Area Until 4:45 PM CDT

    The National Weather Service in Midland/Odessa has issued a Flash Flood Warning for east central Jeff Davis County in West Texas, in effect until 4:45 PM CDT this afternoon. This is the warning that remains in effect through the heart of the afternoon in the Davis Mountains country — radar-indicated thunderstorms dropping 1.5 to 2.5 inches of rain already, with flash flooding ongoing or expected to begin shortly.

    For restoration contractors in the Fort Davis corridor and across Jeff Davis County, this is exactly the setup that turns into interior water calls by tonight: saturated ground, hundreds of low-water crossings in hilly terrain, and camp properties in the flood path.

    This is a live snapshot as of September 19, 2026, 2:22 PM PDT. Conditions change fast — always verify with the National Weather Service for your specific county or ZIP code.

    East Central Jeff Davis County — Flash Flood Warning

    Issuing office: NWS Midland/Odessa TX (weather.gov/maf). Issued: 3:07 PM CDT, September 19, 2026 (update). Expires: 4:45 PM CDT, September 19, 2026. Alert source: NWS alert. Severity: Severe. Certainty: Likely. Urgency: Immediate.

    NWS headline: “FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR EAST CENTRAL JEFF DAVIS COUNTY”

    The hazard, verbatim: At 3:07 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Between 1.5 and 2.5 inches of rain have fallen. Additional rainfall amounts of up to 0.5 inches are possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly.

    • HAZARD: Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.
    • SOURCE: Radar indicated.
    • IMPACT: Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor drainage and low-lying areas.

    Locations that will experience flash flooding include: Buffalo Trail Scout Camp, Star Mountain and Black Mountain.

    VTEC: /O.CON.KMAF.FF.W.0188.000000T0000Z-260919T2145Z/

    Stay safe in Jeff Davis County

    Turn around, don’t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. In the hilly terrain around the Davis Mountains there are hundreds of low-water crossings that are potentially dangerous in heavy rain — do not attempt to cross flooded roads. Find an alternate route.

    Flooding is occurring or is imminent. Know where you are relative to streams, rivers, or creeks, which can become killers in heavy rains. Campers and hikers should avoid streams or creeks — and with Buffalo Trail Scout Camp in the warned area, camp staff should move people to high ground now and keep everyone clear of drainage channels until the warning expires.

    If water enters your home: stay out of standing water where electricity may be present, avoid the basement until water recedes and power is confirmed off, photograph everything before cleanup (documentation matters for insurance), then call a local restoration contractor. Water left sitting starts a second wave of damage within a day.

    What this means for restoration teams

    This is the signature Jeff Davis County setup: a radar-indicated training event over the Davis Mountains dumping 1.5 to 2.5 inches in a few hours, with runoff funneled down canyon country into low-water crossings, ranch roads, and the buildings sitting in the drainage. The damage categories to expect tonight:

    • Interior water intrusion at properties in drainage paths near Star Mountain and Black Mountain — garage and first-floor intrusion where water sheets off slopes.
    • Saturated drywall and insulation in low-lying structures, with the musty smell showing up tomorrow even where water receded fast.
    • Mold risk within 24–48 hours if extraction and drying don’t start quickly — warm West Texas air plus wet building materials is mold’s favorite combination.
    • Camp-property exposure: Buffalo Trail Scout Camp sits in the warned area. Expect cabin and bunkhouse wet-downs, saturated bedding and contents, and muddy walkways that need attention before the next group arrives. Camp operators are time-pressured — a contractor who answers on the first call owns the job.
    • Debris and mud across access roads and low-water crossings that can strand equipment — stage on high ground and verify your route in.

    The play: stage extraction and drying equipment now, keep an on-call rotation through the evening, and pre-position in Fort Davis so you’re inside the response window. On the first call, capture address + water source + affected areas — the crews that document the source on call one get paid fastest. Photo-document before mitigation, moisture-map every affected room, and keep the homeowner’s payment responsibility clear in writing before work starts.

    FEMA & federal assistance

    If this event escalates into a declared disaster, the standard federal playbook applies. FEMA Helpline: 1-800-621-3362 (7 a.m.–10 p.m. local, 7 days). Apply at DisasterAssistance.gov or through the FEMA app, and find recovery centers at fema.gov/drc. Basic eligibility: citizenship or qualified status, identity verification, proof of occupancy or ownership, and unmet needs not covered by insurance. Apply as soon as it’s safe — don’t wait for the damage to finish revealing itself.

    Looking ahead

    This warning expires at 4:45 PM CDT. Overnight, watch for additional rounds of thunderstorms redeveloping over the Davis Mountains and creeks cresting later this evening even after rain stops — water keeps moving downhill after the sky clears. The next NWS update lands as conditions warrant; if flooding continues, expect an extension or a new warning cycle.

    The demand window: water-intrusion calls typically start within hours of water receding and keep coming for days as people discover damage — especially the “it looked fine yesterday” drywall that wicks moisture overnight. Contractors who run a visible on-call presence tonight and follow up with morning moisture checks convert this event into booked work through next week.

    Sources & how to verify

    To verify for your own county or ZIP: go to weather.gov, enter your location, and check the alerts tab — or go straight to your local NWS office page.

    This post is for informational purposes and is not an official weather warning. Always follow instructions from local authorities and the National Weather Service.

  • Flash Flood Warning: Jeff Davis County TX Area Until 4:45 PM CDT

    Flash Flood Warning: Jeff Davis County TX Area Until 4:45 PM CDT

    The National Weather Service in Midland/Odessa has issued a Flash Flood Warning for east central Jeff Davis County in West Texas, in effect until 4:45 PM CDT this afternoon. This is the warning that remains in effect through the heart of the afternoon in the Davis Mountains country — radar-indicated thunderstorms dropping 1.5 to 2.5 inches of rain already, with flash flooding ongoing or expected to begin shortly.

    For restoration contractors in the Fort Davis corridor and across Jeff Davis County, this is exactly the setup that turns into interior water calls by tonight: saturated ground, hundreds of low-water crossings in hilly terrain, and camp properties in the flood path.

    This is a live snapshot as of September 19, 2026, 2:22 PM PDT. Conditions change fast — always verify with the National Weather Service for your specific county or ZIP code.

    East Central Jeff Davis County — Flash Flood Warning

    Issuing office: NWS Midland/Odessa TX (weather.gov/maf). Issued: 3:07 PM CDT, September 19, 2026 (update). Expires: 4:45 PM CDT, September 19, 2026. Alert source: NWS alert. Severity: Severe. Certainty: Likely. Urgency: Immediate.

    NWS headline: “FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR EAST CENTRAL JEFF DAVIS COUNTY”

    The hazard, verbatim: At 3:07 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Between 1.5 and 2.5 inches of rain have fallen. Additional rainfall amounts of up to 0.5 inches are possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly.

    • HAZARD: Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.
    • SOURCE: Radar indicated.
    • IMPACT: Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor drainage and low-lying areas.

    Locations that will experience flash flooding include: Buffalo Trail Scout Camp, Star Mountain and Black Mountain.

    VTEC: /O.CON.KMAF.FF.W.0188.000000T0000Z-260919T2145Z/

    Stay safe in Jeff Davis County

    Turn around, don’t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. In the hilly terrain around the Davis Mountains there are hundreds of low-water crossings that are potentially dangerous in heavy rain — do not attempt to cross flooded roads. Find an alternate route.

    Flooding is occurring or is imminent. Know where you are relative to streams, rivers, or creeks, which can become killers in heavy rains. Campers and hikers should avoid streams or creeks — and with Buffalo Trail Scout Camp in the warned area, camp staff should move people to high ground now and keep everyone clear of drainage channels until the warning expires.

    If water enters your home: stay out of standing water where electricity may be present, avoid the basement until water recedes and power is confirmed off, photograph everything before cleanup (documentation matters for insurance), then call a local restoration contractor. Water left sitting starts a second wave of damage within a day.

    What this means for restoration teams

    This is the signature Jeff Davis County setup: a radar-indicated training event over the Davis Mountains dumping 1.5 to 2.5 inches in a few hours, with runoff funneled down canyon country into low-water crossings, ranch roads, and the buildings sitting in the drainage. The damage categories to expect tonight:

    • Interior water intrusion at properties in drainage paths near Star Mountain and Black Mountain — garage and first-floor intrusion where water sheets off slopes.
    • Saturated drywall and insulation in low-lying structures, with the musty smell showing up tomorrow even where water receded fast.
    • Mold risk within 24–48 hours if extraction and drying don’t start quickly — warm West Texas air plus wet building materials is mold’s favorite combination.
    • Camp-property exposure: Buffalo Trail Scout Camp sits in the warned area. Expect cabin and bunkhouse wet-downs, saturated bedding and contents, and muddy walkways that need attention before the next group arrives. Camp operators are time-pressured — a contractor who answers on the first call owns the job.
    • Debris and mud across access roads and low-water crossings that can strand equipment — stage on high ground and verify your route in.

    The play: stage extraction and drying equipment now, keep an on-call rotation through the evening, and pre-position in Fort Davis so you’re inside the response window. On the first call, capture address + water source + affected areas — the crews that document the source on call one get paid fastest. Photo-document before mitigation, moisture-map every affected room, and keep the homeowner’s payment responsibility clear in writing before work starts.

    FEMA & federal assistance

    If this event escalates into a declared disaster, the standard federal playbook applies. FEMA Helpline: 1-800-621-3362 (7 a.m.–10 p.m. local, 7 days). Apply at DisasterAssistance.gov or through the FEMA app, and find recovery centers at fema.gov/drc. Basic eligibility: citizenship or qualified status, identity verification, proof of occupancy or ownership, and unmet needs not covered by insurance. Apply as soon as it’s safe — don’t wait for the damage to finish revealing itself.

    Looking ahead

    This warning expires at 4:45 PM CDT. Overnight, watch for additional rounds of thunderstorms redeveloping over the Davis Mountains and creeks cresting later this evening even after rain stops — water keeps moving downhill after the sky clears. The next NWS update lands as conditions warrant; if flooding continues, expect an extension or a new warning cycle.

    The demand window: water-intrusion calls typically start within hours of water receding and keep coming for days as people discover damage — especially the “it looked fine yesterday” drywall that wicks moisture overnight. Contractors who run a visible on-call presence tonight and follow up with morning moisture checks convert this event into booked work through next week.

    Sources & how to verify

    To verify for your own county or ZIP: go to weather.gov, enter your location, and check the alerts tab — or go straight to your local NWS office page.

    This post is for informational purposes and is not an official weather warning. Always follow instructions from local authorities and the National Weather Service.

  • Flash Flood Warning: Southeastern Cibola County Until 4:45 PM MDT

    Flash Flood Warning: Southeastern Cibola County Until 4:45 PM MDT

    Status: Active as of 1:47 PM PDT (2:47 PM MDT), Saturday, September 19, 2026. The National Weather Service office in Albuquerque has updated its Flash Flood Warning for southeastern Cibola County, New Mexico — in effect until 4:45 PM MDT. This is a live snapshot: conditions change fast, so always verify with the National Weather Service for your specific county or ZIP code before making decisions.

    This is an update to the warning NWS issued at 1:41 PM MDT south of Acoma Pueblo. The headline change: the thunderstorms producing the heavy rain have ended. Doppler radar now shows no additional rainfall expected — but the water already down does the flooding anyway. Between 1.5 and 2.5 inches of rain have fallen (up from the 1.25–1.75 inches in the original warning), and the NWS keeps the hazard wording at its strongest: life threatening flash flooding. Flooding impacts will continue.

    Southeastern Cibola County — Flash Flood Warning

    Issuing office: NWS Albuquerque, New Mexico (weather.gov/abq)
    Updated: Saturday, September 19 at 2:33 PM MDT
    Expires: Saturday, September 19 at 4:45 PM MDT
    Certainty: Likely · Urgency: Immediate · Severity: Severe

    Per the NWS alert, verbatim:

    At 233 PM MDT, Doppler radar indicated that the thunderstorms producing heavy rain south of Acoma Pueblo had ended. Between 1.5 and 2.5 inches of rain have fallen. Flooding impacts will continue, but no additional rainfall is expected. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly.

    HAZARD…Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms producing flash flooding.

    SOURCE…Radar indicated.

    IMPACT…Life threatening flash flooding of creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses.

    Some locations that will experience flash flooding include… Mainly rural areas of Southeastern Cibola County.

    The NWS instruction for this warning is specific to the terrain: “In hilly or mountainous terrain there are numerous low water crossings which are potentially dangerous in heavy rain. Do not attempt to cross flooded roads. Find an alternate route.”

    The physics here is worth understanding: a storm ends, and people assume the danger ended with it. It didn’t. Flash flooding on 1.5–2.5 inches over desert-hardened soil means runoff is still concentrating into creeks, arroyos, and low-water crossings — the water arrives after the rain. In southeastern Cibola County’s hilly terrain, that lag is exactly where vehicles get caught: a crossing that was fine when the sky cleared can be running hard twenty minutes later.

    Stay safe tonight

    The ended-rainfall trap is the headline safety message for this update: do not trust clearing skies at a low-water crossing. If a crossing is running, find an alternate route — never attempt to drive through. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles, and it only takes a few inches of fast-moving water to carry one away.

    If water enters your home: stay out of standing water where electricity may be present, avoid the basement until water recedes and power is confirmed off, and photograph everything before cleanup begins — documentation matters for insurance. Then call a local restoration contractor: water left sitting starts a second wave of damage within a day.

    The warning runs until 4:45 PM MDT, but creeks and crossings south of Acoma Pueblo stay dangerous after expiry. Give the water time to drain — hours, not minutes — before trusting any crossing in the warned area.

    What this means for restoration teams

    This update changes the operator picture in one specific way: the rain has ended but the flooding hasn’t. That profile produces a distinct call pattern:

    • Damage categories to expect: Interior water intrusion in low-lying homes, saturated drywall and insulation in ground-floor rooms, and sediment-laden water in structures near creeks and washes. Runoff over Cibola County’s hard desert soil carries silt and debris — mud inside a structure means contamination protocols, not just drying.
    • The demand window: Because the rain ended mid-afternoon while impacts continue into the evening, expect a split call curve: first calls this afternoon from people watching water rise, then a second wave this evening and tomorrow as rural property owners discover intrusion after the fact. Water-intrusion calls typically keep coming for days as damage is discovered.
    • Stage now: Keep an on-call rotation through the night. A warning expiring at 4:45 PM MDT with ended rainfall but ongoing flooding is exactly the profile that generates Saturday-evening homeowner calls — and rural response times in southeastern Cibola County are long, so pre-positioning toward the Acoma/Laguna corridor matters.
    • First-call capture: Get the address, the water source (creek overflow? wash runoff? direct intrusion?), and the affected areas on the first call. Ask whether water carried sediment into the structure — if it did, flag the job for contamination-scope pricing from the start.
    • Field discipline: Photo-document before mitigation, moisture-map every affected room, and keep the homeowner’s payment responsibility clear in writing before work starts.

    One more note from the warning’s own wording: the NWS calls this life threatening even with the rain ended. If your team is doing field work in the warned polygon, keep crews out of drainages and crossings until the warning expires and the water visibly recedes.

    FEMA & federal assistance

    If your home or business took flood damage and your needs aren’t covered by insurance, FEMA assistance may apply once a disaster is declared. The FEMA Helpline is 1-800-621-3362 (7 a.m.–10 p.m. local time, 7 days a week). You can also apply at DisasterAssistance.gov, through the FEMA app, or find in-person help at fema.gov/drc.

    Basic eligibility: U.S. citizenship or qualified status, identity verification, proof of occupancy or ownership of the damaged property, and unmet needs not covered by insurance. Apply as soon as it’s safe — document everything first.

    Looking ahead

    The warning expires at 4:45 PM MDT. The thing to watch after that: runoff lag. In hilly terrain with 1.5–2.5 inches fallen, creeks and low-water crossings can stay dangerous well into the evening even though the radar is quiet. If new storms fire later, NWS Albuquerque would issue fresh warnings; check the Albuquerque office page or weather.gov for your county.

    For restoration operators: this is the second Cibola County warning of the day (the first covered the Acoma sector at 1:41 PM MDT with rain ongoing). Multiple warnings on the same county in one afternoon concentrate demand on local contractors — if you serve the I-40 Grants–Acoma corridor, expect your phone to keep ringing tonight.

    Sources & how to verify

    To verify for your own county or ZIP: enter it at weather.gov or go straight to the Albuquerque office page for the latest warnings in the region.

    This post is for informational purposes and is not an official weather warning. Always follow instructions from local authorities and the National Weather Service.

  • Storm Updates: Kansas Slight Risk + Midwest–Montana Flood Moderate — Saturday, September 19, 2026 (Morning)

    This is a live Saturday morning snapshot of U.S. local-storm activity as of early Saturday, September 19, 2026. Overnight convection left trees and wires down across the Carolinas and Upstate South Carolina, dumped 1.00–1.50-inch hail on the Utah Wasatch Front and Four Corners, and produced brief tornado or landspout reports near Fruit Heights and Uintah County, Utah. This morning the organized work is water: flash-flood warnings and just-hit rain of 3 to 7.5 inches in southeastern Minnesota and northeastern Iowa, with a Weather Prediction Center Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall still draped over eastern Iowa, northern Illinois, and northern Indiana, plus a second Moderate pocket over southern Montana.

    The Storm Prediction Center 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook holds a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of the central Plains, valid 1300Z Saturday through 1200Z Sunday. Summary language: scattered severe wind gusts and large hail this afternoon and evening, focused on Kansas. No convective watches are currently valid. The most recently issued watch was #0669, now expired. There are no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, eastern Pacific, or central Pacific. A subtropical Atlantic disturbance near the Azores is not a U.S. land threat.

    These are county- and ZIP-scale thunderstorms and flash-flood pulses, not a mainland hurricane landfall. Restoration exposure today is interior water where overnight cores trained, then late-day Kansas wind and hail if the Slight Risk verifies. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

    What is live this morning

    No SPC severe thunderstorm or tornado watch is up at 12:23 UTC Saturday. Friday’s Carolina wind pulse and Utah/Four Corners convection are yesterday’s tickets now sitting as LSRs. What is still live is hydrologic: overnight Flash Flood Warnings for southern Fillmore County, Minnesota; Clayton and Fayette Counties, Iowa; and Dubuque, Jackson, Jo Daviess, and Stephenson Counties on the Iowa–Illinois line. La Crosse and Quad Cities language overnight cited 1–3 inches already down in the Iowa warnings and 3–7.5 inches in the Minnesota flood statements, with a mudslide reported on Highway 76 west of Caledonia and water over the road at Beaver Creek Valley State Park.

    Flood Watches remain through Sunday morning across portions of southwest and south-central Michigan, northern Indiana, and northwest Ohio. A separate Flood Watch covers south-central and southeast Montana and Sheridan County, Wyoming, through Sunday afternoon, including burn-scar flash-flood language. Heat Advisories continue into this evening over parts of southeast Kansas and central through southwest Missouri, with heat-index values near 100–105°F — that is a crew-safety overlay on the same Plains corridor that later gets the Slight Risk.

    Hotspot 1 — Central Plains Slight Risk (Kansas axis)

    This is today’s new severe desk. The 1300Z outlook, issued 7:25 a.m. CDT by Smith/Mead, places a Slight Risk over parts of the central Plains. The 15-percent hail contour covers about 34,700 square miles and 1.33 million people, with larger centers listed as Wichita, Topeka, Lawrence, Salina, and Manhattan. The 15-percent wind contour is a bit larger and also takes in St. Joseph, Missouri. A categorical intensity-level-1 wind overlay (60–75 mph gusts) sits where HREF guidance, precipitable water, and steep low-level lapse rates overlap. A 5-percent wind area fans out as far as Denver, Kansas City, Indianapolis, Cincinnati, and Atlanta — that is the isolated-gust envelope, not the Slight Risk core.

    A cold front still runs west-southwest to east-northeast from the central High Plains to the mid-Mississippi Valley and will ease south. Seasonably moist air ahead of it over Kansas, Missouri, and northwestern Oklahoma should become moderately unstable by mid-afternoon. Storms are expected late afternoon into early evening as CIN erodes. Steep 0–3 km lapse rates (8.5–9.5°C/km) favor vigorous cores and evaporative cooling. A few short-lived supercells are possible in the Kansas vicinity given adequate speed and directional shear. Large hail rides with the stronger updrafts. The threat should diminish during the evening.

    Farther west, models still build storms near and east of I-25 this afternoon, then grow a loosely organized band — including some supercells — into a linear cluster crossing eastern Colorado into western Kansas. Fifteen-percent wind probabilities were added over eastern Colorado for that mode. Low severe-wind probabilities continue into western Kansas late evening if the cluster holds together.

    Cities and counties to watch: Wichita, Hutchinson, Salina, Manhattan, Topeka, Lawrence, and the I-70 / I-35 corridor in Kansas; St. Joseph and the western Missouri fringe; eastern Colorado Front Range and High Plains east of I-25; Amarillo and Enid sit in the broader wind-probability field but are not the Slight Risk bullseye.

    Restoration read: stage tarps and glass/roof kits for late afternoon, not after the first warning. Hail on the 15-percent contour is vehicle and shingle work. Wind at 60–75 mph is trees on service drops and isolated roof peel. Do not let the Heat Advisory talk you out of hydration and early staging — that air mass is the same one feeding the storms.

    Hotspot 2 — Midwest Moderate excessive rainfall (already hitting)

    WPC’s Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, updated 0844 UTC Saturday and valid 12Z Saturday through 12Z Sunday, maintains a Moderate Risk over portions of the Midwest, particularly eastern Iowa, northern Illinois, and northern Indiana. That is the same corridor that took overnight Flash Flood Warnings. Additional 1–2 inches were still possible in the Iowa–Illinois warnings as of 4:19–5:54 a.m. CDT. Flood Watches through Sunday morning over southwest Michigan, northern Indiana, and northwest Ohio keep the water story open after the current warnings expire.

    Southeastern Minnesota is the just-hit core: 4–7.5 inches in Fillmore and Mower Counties with flooding on Highway 16 between Wayland and Peterson, water over County 57 / Minnesota 56, trees washed onto Highway 43 from south Rushford to Bratsberg, and I-90 between mile markers 193 and 204 in the statement footprint. Houston County statements cited 5–7 inches and a mudslide west of Caledonia. Those are extraction and roadway-closure jobs already on the books.

    River flooding leftover from earlier in the week still sits on the Saint Marys and Wabash in northeast Indiana and northwest Ohio, with moderate flooding forecast near Decatur and Fort Wayne. That is channel water, not this morning’s flash-flood cores.

    Restoration read: Minnesota–northeast Iowa–northwest Illinois is today’s water ticket. Photograph interiors in remaining daylight only if it is safe. The Moderate Risk means another training band can reload the same ZIPs this afternoon. Do not send the Kansas hail crew and the Dubuque water crew as one story.

    Hotspot 3 — Southern Montana Moderate flood + High Plains leftover wind

    WPC upgraded parts of southern Montana to a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall. Discussion cited anomalously high moisture, a slow-moving mid-upper low, and deterministic QPF near 3.5 inches with high-end CAM scenarios of localized 7–8 inches if instability verifies. NWS Billings holds a Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for all of south-central and southeast Montana and Sheridan County, Wyoming, with explicit burn-scar flash-flood language. A separate Flood Watch covers a slice of northeast Montana (Dawson, Garfield, Petroleum, Prairie, Wibaux).

    Overnight High Plains wind already verified on the west side of this pattern: 66 mph near Burlington, Colorado; 67 mph southeast of Evansville, Wyoming; 63 mph northwest of Ruleton, Kansas; 69 mph north-northwest of McDonald, Kansas; 64 mph north of Hastings, Nebraska; trees and snapped poles in Cheyenne County, Kansas. Those are Friday night LSRs, not a live watch.

    Restoration read: Montana is a flood-and-burn-scar desk, not a wind desk. High Plains wind damage from last night is already on the ground in western Kansas and eastern Colorado. Today’s new wind threat there is the late-day cluster coming off the Front Range.

    Just hit

    Friday’s Carolinas–Georgia Marginal Risk verified as a wind pulse. Official LSRs include a 69 mph gust at Greensboro (GSO) and 66 mph at Fayetteville (KFAY), plus a long string of trees and wires down from Davie, Guilford, Randolph, Iredell, Rowan, Chatham, Moore, Johnston, Wake, Cumberland, Harnett, Catawba, and Pender Counties in North Carolina into York, Spartanburg, Greenville, Pickens, and Anderson Counties in South Carolina. Shingles and siding damage was reported west-southwest of Statesville. A landspout lofted debris at Lighthouse Point, Broward County, Florida, mid-afternoon Friday. That is a local Florida ticket, not the national headline.

    Utah and the Four Corners took the hail and brief-tornado reports: 1.50-inch hail at Kaysville and west of Farmington, Davis County; 1.00-inch hail at Farmington, New Mexico, and Dinosaur / Massadona, Moffat County, Colorado; a tornado report near Fruit Heights, Davis County, from video showing rotation and lofted debris; a landspout report 15 miles east-southeast of Naples, Uintah County. Those cells are down. The work is already there.

    Pulse table

    RegionMain threatsSPC / NWS / WPC levelStatus this morning
    Central / eastern KansasSevere wind 60–75 mph, large hail, short-lived supercellsSPC Slight (1300Z)Outlook only — no watch yet
    Eastern CO into western KSDamaging gusts as storms go linear15% wind / isolated severeLate afternoon–evening
    E Iowa / N Illinois / N IndianaFlash flood, training rainWPC Moderate EROLive overnight FFWs; risk continues
    SE Minnesota (Fillmore, Houston, Mower)Just-hit 4–7.5″ rain, roads, mudslideFFW / flood warning overnightAftermath + residual water
    SW MI / N IN / NW OHAdditional flooding possibleFlood Watch through Sunday morningWatch live
    Southern / SE Montana + Sheridan WYHeavy rain, burn-scar flash floodWPC Moderate + Flood WatchToday into Sunday
    Carolinas / Upstate SCTrees, wires, 66–69 mph gustsFriday Marginal — verifiedJust hit / cleanup
    Wasatch Front / Four Corners1.00–1.50″ hail, brief tornado/landspout reportsFriday convectionJust hit
    Ohio Valley / southern Appalachians / SoutheastIsolated 50–60 mph gustsSPC 5% wind / local SVR possibleAfternoon scatter
    Atlantic / Gulf vs. U.S. mainlandNo named cyclone threatening landNHC: no TCsQuiet on the mainland coast

    What this means for restoration teams

    Water is the morning job. Minnesota and the Iowa–Illinois line already have interior and roadway flooding from overnight cores. A Moderate ERO means those same counties can take another round. Kansas is the afternoon job: hail and 60–75 mph wind if the Slight Risk fires on schedule. Montana is a separate flood-and-burn-scar desk with a multi-day watch. Carolina wind and Utah hail are Friday night tickets still waiting on adjusters.

    For teams on the Kansas Slight Risk: stage before mid-afternoon local, not after the first warning. Property owners should photograph damage in daylight if it is safe, call the carrier, and start extraction the same night if water is inside. Heat-index values near 100–105°F on the Missouri–southeast Kansas Advisory are a crew-safety constraint, not a reason to ignore the outlook.

    What this is not

    This is not a regional derecho and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. No convective watch is up as of mid-morning UTC Saturday. The work today, if it comes, will be scattered: a hail and wind swath through a Kansas county, another flooded intersection where Iowa or northern Illinois cells train, burn-scar runoff in southern Montana, leftover trees in the Carolinas. That is the local-storm pattern this desk should staff.

    Looking ahead

    SPC Day 2 remains a Slight Risk. WPC Day 2 eases the Midwest and Ohio Valley to a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall as the axis slides east. Flood Watches in Michigan, Indiana, Ohio, and Montana run through Sunday. Watch the next Storm Tracker update rather than assuming the overnight Minnesota warnings were the last water of the weekend.

    Sources and how to verify

    Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center Sep 19, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook (Smith/Mead, 0725 AM CDT); SPC Current Watches page updated 12:23 UTC Saturday (no watches valid; last watch #0669); SPC Local Storm Reports for 18/1200Z–19/1159Z; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook updated 0844 UTC Saturday; National Weather Service warning text from La Crosse, Quad Cities, Northern Indiana, Billings, Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Springfield, and neighboring offices; National Hurricane Center Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook 800 AM EDT Saturday (no tropical cyclones; Azores disturbance is not a U.S. land threat).

    Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watch, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay. Prior desk: Friday, September 18 storm updates (afternoon).

    Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

  • Flash Flood Warning: Northern Fillmore and Mower Counties Until 1 AM CDT

    Flash Flood Warning: Northern Fillmore and Mower Counties Until 1 AM CDT

    Status: ACTIVE — Flash Flood Warning until 1:00 AM CDT Saturday, September 19. A Flash Flood Warning is in effect right now for northern Fillmore and northern Mower counties in southeastern Minnesota, issued by the National Weather Service in La Crosse at 11:51 PM CDT Friday. This one is observed and already causing damage: local law enforcement reports trees washed down at Highway 43 from south Rushford to Bratsberg, and flooding along Minnesota Highway 16 between Wayland and Peterson. Between 3 and 6 inches of rain have fallen, with another 1 to 3 inches possible. Flash flooding is already occurring.

    This is the most damage-forward of tonight’s three active southeastern Minnesota warnings — confirmed road flooding, washed-out trees, and the heaviest rainfall totals of the night. For restoration contractors, a warning with observed highway flooding is the one that produces the Saturday call surge: stranded vehicles, flooded road-adjacent properties, and basements that filled while the rain kept falling at up to 3 additional inches. This is a live snapshot as of 12:35 AM CDT Saturday, September 19. Conditions change fast — always verify with the National Weather Service for your specific county or ZIP code.

    Northern Fillmore and Mower Counties — Flash Flood Warning

    Issued: 11:51 PM CDT Friday, September 18, by the National Weather Service in La Crosse (KARX).
    Expires: 1:00 AM CDT Saturday, September 19.
    Area: Northern Fillmore and northern Mower counties, Minnesota.
    Severity: Severe · Certainty: Likely · Urgency: Immediate.

    At 11:51 PM CDT, local law enforcement reported thunderstorms producing heavy rain. The detection is observed — officers on the ground have confirmed it, and the damage reports are already specific:

    • Trees were washed down at Highway 43 from south Rushford to Bratsberg.
    • Minnesota Highway 16 between Wayland and Peterson has flooding reported along the highway.
    • This includes Interstate 90 in Minnesota between mile markers 193 and 204.

    Rainfall totals so far, per the NWS:

    • Between 3 and 6 inches of rain have fallen — the heaviest totals of any warning active in Minnesota tonight.
    • Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are possible in the warned area.
    • Flash flooding is already occurring.

    HAZARD: Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.
    SOURCE: Law enforcement reported.
    IMPACT: Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor drainage and low-lying areas.

    Some locations that will experience flash flooding include: Chatfield, Rushford, Grand Meadow, Lanesboro, Brownsdale, Wykoff, Fountain, Lansing, Rushford Village, Washington, Racine, Mayville, Dexter, Pilot Mound, Arendahl, Peterson, Waltham, and Whalan.

    Source links: NWS La Crosse office page · the official NWS alert (FFSARX).

    Stay safe tonight

    Turn around, don’t drown. When you encounter a flooded road, do not attempt to cross it — most flood deaths occur in vehicles, and the flooding on Highway 16 and Highway 43 tonight is the proof. It takes only a few inches of moving water to sweep a car away. Be especially cautious tonight: it is harder to recognize the dangers of flooding after dark, and this warning runs through 1 AM.

    If water is entering your home:

    • Stay out of standing water where electricity may be present. Do not enter a flooded basement until power is confirmed off.
    • Avoid the basement until the water recedes and the electrical situation is verified safe.
    • Photograph everything before cleanup begins. Documentation matters for insurance — shoot the water line, the affected rooms, and any damaged contents before anything is moved or torn out.
    • Call a local restoration contractor quickly. Water left sitting starts a second wave of damage — saturated drywall, wicking into framing, and mold growth — within a day.

    What this means for restoration teams

    Three to six inches of rain with observed highway flooding is the call profile that restoration owners in the Driftless Area know well: the Rushford corridor floods hard and fast, low-lying homes along the Root River tributaries take water first, and the I-90 corridor between mile markers 193 and 204 becoming part of the warning zone means commercial properties along the interstate — hotels, truck stops, strip retail — are in the damage footprint too.

    What to expect from the call volume:

    • Commercial calls will mix with residential. When an interstate corridor is named in a flash flood warning, expect water-intrusion calls from businesses along it — flooded parking lots pushing water into ground-floor units, loading docks, and lobbies.
    • The dawn wave will be the biggest of the night. Overnight flash-flood calls typically surface between 5 and 8 AM. With the heaviest rainfall totals in the state tonight, the Rushford–Chatfield–Lanesboro triangle should be staffed for a busy Saturday morning.
    • Washed-down trees mean access problems. Trees down at Highway 43 from south Rushford to Bratsberg signal blocked roads and delayed response. Quote arrival windows with the road situation in mind, and triage by severity.
    • Sewage backup risk is elevated. In small towns, 3 to 6 inches of rain overwhelms combined systems. Ask every caller about odor — that determines PPE, category classification, and disposal protocol.
    • Mold clock starts now. Porous materials soaked tonight reach the 24–48 hour mold window by Sunday. Contractors with drying equipment staged and an on-call rotation running win this wave.

    The play: stage equipment now — dehumidifiers, air movers, extraction units, moisture meters. Keep an on-call rotation through Saturday morning. On the first call, capture the address, the water source (rain intrusion vs. sewage backup vs. sump failure), and every affected room. Photo-document before mitigation starts, moisture-map every affected room, and keep the homeowner’s payment responsibility clear in writing before work begins.

    FEMA & federal assistance

    If your home or business is damaged and a federal disaster is later declared for your county, help may be available through FEMA. The FEMA Helpline is 1-800-621-3362 (7 a.m.–10 p.m. local time, 7 days a week). You can also apply at DisasterAssistance.gov or through the FEMA app, and find recovery centers at fema.gov/drc.

    Basic eligibility: U.S. citizenship or qualified status, identity verification, proof of occupancy or ownership of the damaged property, and unmet needs not covered by insurance. Apply as soon as it is safe to do so — and document your damage thoroughly before cleanup, because adjusters and FEMA inspectors both work from what you can show.

    Looking ahead

    This warning expires at 1:00 AM CDT — the shortest fuse of the night, and the one expiring first. That does not mean the danger lifts at 1 AM: with 3 to 6 inches of rain on the ground and washed-out roads already reported, creeks and streams in Fillmore and Mower counties can keep rising for hours after the rain stops, and any follow-up round of storms on saturated ground can re-trigger flooding with almost no lead time. Watch for an extension or a new warning from NWS La Crosse.

    The demand window for restoration work opens as the water recedes: water-intrusion calls typically start within hours and keep coming for days as people discover damage — wet carpet that seemed fine, baseboards that wicked overnight, musty odors that surface Sunday. Contractors who run Saturday-morning inspection routes through Rushford, Chatfield, and the Highway 16 corridor will find the work the overnight storm left behind.

    Sources & how to verify

    To verify for your own county or ZIP: go to weather.gov, enter your location, and check the alerts box at the top of your local forecast page — or visit your NWS office page directly.

    This post is for informational purposes and is not an official weather warning. Always follow instructions from local authorities and the National Weather Service.

  • Flash Flood Warning: Fillmore County Until 3:45 AM CDT

    Flash Flood Warning: Fillmore County Until 3:45 AM CDT

    Status: ACTIVE — Flash Flood Warning until 3:45 AM CDT Saturday, September 19. The National Weather Service in La Crosse has issued a Flash Flood Warning for southern Fillmore County in southeastern Minnesota, effective 11:46 PM CDT Friday. Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicate thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area: between 1 and 3.5 inches of rain have fallen, with another 1 to 3 inches possible. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly.

    This is the second of three active flash flood warnings across southeastern Minnesota tonight — a multi-county rain event that is still unfolding while most of the warned area sleeps. For restoration contractors, this is the overnight scenario that fills the Saturday call board: water moving into basements, crawl spaces, and low-lying commercial buildings hours before anyone is awake to see it. This is a live snapshot as of 12:30 AM CDT Saturday, September 19. Conditions change fast — always verify with the National Weather Service for your specific county or ZIP code.

    Southern Fillmore County — Flash Flood Warning

    Issued: 11:46 PM CDT Friday, September 18, by the National Weather Service in La Crosse (KARX).
    Expires: 3:45 AM CDT Saturday, September 19.
    Area: Southern Fillmore County in southeastern Minnesota.
    Severity: Severe · Certainty: Likely · Urgency: Immediate.

    At 11:46 PM CDT, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Detection is radar and gauge indicated — automated gauges on the ground are confirming what the radar shows.

    Rainfall totals so far, per the NWS:

    • Between 1 and 3.5 inches of rain have fallen across the warned area.
    • Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are possible in the warned area.
    • Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly.

    HAZARD: Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.
    SOURCE: Radar and automated gauges.
    IMPACT: Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor drainage and low-lying areas.

    Some locations that will experience flash flooding include: Preston, Spring Valley, Harmony, Mabel, Canton, Highland, Cherry Grove, Bristol, Newburg, Amherst, York, Carimona, Ostrander, Hutton, Granger, Forestville State Park, Greenleafton, and Henrytown.

    Source links: NWS La Crosse office page · the official NWS alert (FFWARX).

    Stay safe tonight

    Turn around, don’t drown. When you encounter a flooded road, do not attempt to cross it — most flood deaths occur in vehicles, and even a few inches of fast-moving water can carry a car away. Be especially cautious tonight: it is harder to recognize the dangers of flooding after dark, and this warning runs until nearly 4 AM.

    If water is entering your home:

    • Stay out of standing water where electricity may be present. Do not enter a flooded basement until power is confirmed off.
    • Avoid the basement until the water recedes and the electrical situation is verified safe.
    • Photograph everything before cleanup begins. Documentation matters for insurance — shoot the water line, the affected rooms, and any damaged contents before anything is moved or torn out.
    • Call a local restoration contractor quickly. Water left sitting starts a second wave of damage — saturated drywall, wicking into framing, and mold growth — within a day.

    What this means for restoration teams

    Southern Fillmore County is hill country — the Root River valley, steep bluffs, and towns like Preston, Lanesboro-area corridors, and Harmony sitting in drainage paths that concentrate runoff fast. With 1 to 3.5 inches already down and another 1 to 3 possible, this is exactly the profile that produces basement seepage, overwhelmed sump systems, and water pushing through foundation walls in older housing stock.

    What to expect from the call volume:

    • The wave starts at dawn. Overnight flash-flood calls typically surface between 5 and 8 AM as people wake to wet basements. Staff the phones for Saturday morning.
    • Sump-pump failures will be a major call driver. When rain falls this fast on saturated ground, sump systems run continuously — and the ones with aging pumps or no battery backup fail at the worst moment. Ask callers whether they have a sump and whether it’s running.
    • Rural properties and state-park-adjacent cabins are in the mix. Forestville State Park is inside the warned area, and seasonal properties with no one home are the jobs that get discovered days later — the mold jobs. If you serve the Preston/Spring Valley corridor, a Saturday drive-by route through low-lying areas can surface work before homeowners even call.
    • Mold clock starts now. Porous materials soaked tonight reach the 24–48 hour mold window by Sunday. The contractors who win this wave are the ones with drying equipment staged and an on-call rotation already running.

    The play: stage equipment now — dehumidifiers, air movers, extraction units, moisture meters. Keep an on-call rotation through Saturday morning. On the first call, capture the address, the water source (rain intrusion vs. sewage backup vs. sump failure), and every affected room. Photo-document before mitigation starts, moisture-map every affected room, and keep the homeowner’s payment responsibility clear in writing before work begins.

    FEMA & federal assistance

    If your home or business is damaged and a federal disaster is later declared for your county, help may be available through FEMA. The FEMA Helpline is 1-800-621-3362 (7 a.m.–10 p.m. local time, 7 days a week). You can also apply at DisasterAssistance.gov or through the FEMA app, and find recovery centers at fema.gov/drc.

    Basic eligibility: U.S. citizenship or qualified status, identity verification, proof of occupancy or ownership of the damaged property, and unmet needs not covered by insurance. Apply as soon as it is safe to do so — and document your damage thoroughly before cleanup, because adjusters and FEMA inspectors both work from what you can show.

    Looking ahead

    This warning runs until 3:45 AM CDT — the longest of tonight’s southeastern Minnesota warnings — which tells you the NWS expects the heavy rain to persist. When it expires, the danger does not necessarily end: creeks and streams in Fillmore County can crest hours after the rain stops, and saturated bluff-country ground means even a light follow-up round can re-trigger flooding with almost no lead time. Watch for an extension or additional warnings from NWS La Crosse if rain rates hold.

    The demand window for restoration work opens as the water recedes: water-intrusion calls typically start within hours and keep coming for days as people discover damage — wet carpet that seemed fine, baseboards that wicked overnight, musty odors that surface Sunday. Contractors who run Saturday-morning inspection routes through Preston, Spring Valley, and Harmony will find the work the overnight storm left behind.

    Sources & how to verify

    To verify for your own county or ZIP: go to weather.gov, enter your location, and check the alerts box at the top of your local forecast page — or visit your NWS office page directly.

    This post is for informational purposes and is not an official weather warning. Always follow instructions from local authorities and the National Weather Service.