Compared with the morning desk (quiet-pulse-2026-10-16-morning) and the earlier afternoon snapshot: SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook issued 0750 PM CDT Friday, October 16, 2026 (0100Z October 17, valid 170100Z–171200Z) shows NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST. The prior Slight Risk over the Mid-Atlantic into southern New England has ended as the strong cold front progressed offshore and associated convection weakened or moved offshore.
Severe Thunderstorm Watches 686 and 687 expired earlier. As of ~0215Z October 17, SPC lists no convective watches currently valid. No mesoscale discussions are in effect for severe potential.
Preliminary local storm reports from the earlier convective day logged numerous wind damage reports (trees, wires, power lines) primarily across Pennsylvania and into New Jersey, Massachusetts, and Connecticut. No tornado or hail reports. Severe potential is now low.
WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 0059Z October 17 / 8:59 PM EDT) maintains Marginal Risk only across portions of southeast Florida. Convection peaked; heavy rainfall coverage declining overnight. Localized urban flash-flood risk may continue a few hours where slow-moving cells drop 2–3 inches in an hour. No Moderate or higher. Prior West Texas Moderate closed.
Tropical lane unchanged: no tropical storm or hurricane watches or warnings on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America. NHC: no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf; formation not expected next 7 days. Eastern Pacific Hurricane Trudy (approaching Mexico) and remnants of Simon remain offshore Mexico only.
Live Status
As of this Friday evening update to the October 16, 2026 afternoon desk (approximately 8:15 PM PDT / 11:15 PM EDT / 0315Z October 17), the severe weather lane has closed. The SPC 0100Z Day 1 outlook confirms no severe thunderstorm areas are forecast through the remainder of the night. A strong cold front has swept the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England, with the low-topped convective line having weakened or moved offshore. Isolated thunderstorms may linger, but post-frontal conditions limit any severe risk.
Flood remains the only open lane at Marginal over southeast Florida, where high moisture supported earlier heavy rain rates. Coverage is declining overnight. No higher-end excessive rainfall risk is in effect. Non-convective High Wind Warnings continue in parts of southern California and Arizona for gusts to 65–75 mph in mountain passes and foothills, separate from convective threats. No tropical systems threaten U.S. land or the Gulf of America.
Hotspots
Southeast Florida residual: WPC Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall. Localized urban flash flooding possible for a few more hours from slow-moving cells. Convection has peaked and is weakening.
Mid-Atlantic / southern New England just-hit: Earlier Slight Risk and Watches 686/687 produced scattered damaging winds. Multiple tree and wire reports across Pennsylvania into New Jersey and southern New England. Line has exited; residual cleanup only.
Southern California high winds: Ongoing High Wind Warnings in mountain and valley areas with gusts 50–75 mph. Non-convective; potential for tree and power impacts.
Just Hit
The organized Mid-Atlantic Slight Risk window closed this evening. SPC preliminary reports confirm wind damage (trees and wires down) across central and eastern Pennsylvania counties, Hunterdon County NJ, and portions of Massachusetts and Connecticut. No tornado or hail reports. Short-fuse warnings expired with the watches. Prior West Texas Moderate ERO and Midwest residual remain closed.
Pulse Table
Lane
Status
Notes (as of ~8:15 PM PDT / 11:15 PM EDT / 0315Z 17 Oct 2026)
Tropical
None
No named systems threatening U.S. land or Gulf. Atlantic, Caribbean, and Gulf of America quiet; formation not expected next 7 days. Pacific systems offshore Mexico only. Hurricane Warnings limited to Mexican waters.
Severe
Quiet
SPC Day 1 (0100Z Oct 17): NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST. Prior Slight Risk and Watches 686/687 closed. Line exited or weakened. Numerous earlier wind LSRs (trees/wires) in PA, NJ, MA, CT. No current watches.
Flood
Marginal
WPC Day 1 Marginal Risk southeast Florida only. Convection peaked; declining overnight. Localized urban risk possible briefly. No Moderate or higher. Prior West Texas Moderate closed.
Restoration Read
Quiet Pulse on the severe side. Residual work is tree and wire cleanup from the earlier Mid-Atlantic wind event across Pennsylvania into New Jersey and southern New England. Flood remains Marginal only in southeast Florida and does not drive a national water ticket. No tropical claims. Non-convective High Wind Warnings in California and Arizona are separate events. Standard quiet-day posture: check local NWS for any lingering Flood Advisories in Florida and assess residual damage reports. Turn around, don’t drown remains the standing public message.
Rising Queries
Trends unreachable.
What This Is Not
This is a Quiet Pulse. The SPC Day 1 outlook holds no severe thunderstorm areas. Flood is Marginal only over southeast Florida. No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning affects the U.S. coast or Gulf of America. The earlier Mid-Atlantic Slight Risk and associated watches have closed.
Looking Ahead One Day
Saturday holds no severe thunderstorm areas on SPC Day 2. WPC Day 2 carries a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall along portions of the Florida east coast. Colder air filters in behind the front, with frost and freeze potential in parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast overnight into Sunday. No tropical development indicated for the U.S. coast or Gulf.
Informational only — not an official warning. This is an afternoon desk summary of public National Weather Service, Storm Prediction Center, Weather Prediction Center, and National Hurricane Center products as of approximately 8:15 PM PDT on October 16, 2026. Always confirm with the latest official forecasts and local authorities. Turn around, don’t drown.
As of ~9:16 PM PDT / 11:16 PM CDT / 0416Z Wednesday, October 14, 2026, Severe Thunderstorm Watch 682 (KS/MO, expired 0400Z) has reached its expiration; Watches 683 (OK/TX Panhandle until Midnight CDT / 0500Z) and 684 (west TX until 2 AM CDT / 0700Z) remain in effect. Primary threats unchanged: large hail to 2.75 inches, damaging winds to 80+ mph, isolated tornado possible.
SPC 0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook (issued 0800 PM CDT Tuesday, October 13, 2026, valid 140100Z–141200Z) continues to hold the Slight Risk across southern/central Plains into the Lower Missouri Valley for large hail and severe gusts this evening into tonight. Isolated large hail possible in the southern Great Lakes. No category upgrade since the morning 1300 UTC outlook.
Preliminary SPC LSRs (1200 UTC Oct 13 onward, through ~2344 UTC) remain: hail to 2.75 inches near Matador TX and Mclean TX, 2.50 inches near Hedley TX, 2.00 inches near Lipscomb TX, multiple 1.00–1.75 inch reports in KS/OK/TX; wind gusts to 81 mph near Turkey TX, 75 mph near Flomot TX, 70 mph near Easton KS (power pole down), tree limbs down near Hazelton KS. No tornado reports received.
Active Severe Thunderstorm Warnings continue under the remaining watches, with prior destructive threats noted in the Kansas City metro. WPC Day 1 Slight ERO holds across the corridor with Flood Watches for KS/MO including KC metro. Tropical lane unchanged: no U.S. land threats from Atlantic or EP systems.
No new mesoscale discussions issued in the last hour; storms continue organizing into clusters along the front with upscale growth expected overnight under the low-level jet.
Live Status
As of approximately 9:16 PM PDT / 11:16 PM CDT / 0416Z Wednesday, October 14, 2026, Severe Thunderstorm Watches 683 and 684 remain live over western Oklahoma, the eastern Texas Panhandle, and west Texas, while Watch 682 for Kansas and northwest Missouri has expired. The SPC Day 1 Slight Risk continues to cover scattered severe storms capable of large hail and severe gusts this evening into tonight from the southern/central Plains into the Lower Missouri Valley. Surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s F, MLCAPE 2000–2500 J/kg, and 35–45 kt shear continue to support supercells transitioning to linear and cluster modes. Preliminary LSRs confirm large hail and damaging winds are verifying. The low-level jet is expected to sustain convection overnight.
A Marginal Risk persists for isolated severe gusts in parts of western and central New York and for overnight expansion into far northeast Oklahoma, southeast Kansas, and southwest Missouri. The WPC Day 1 Slight Excessive Rainfall Outlook and associated Flood Watches cover the Kansas City metro and surrounding areas. The multi-day unsettled period with heavy rain potential continues through Thursday.
Hotspots
KS / NW MO — Watch 682 expired
Southern and eastern Kansas into west-central and northwest Missouri were under Watch 682 until 11 PM CDT / 0400Z. The watch included the Kansas City metro, Wichita, and Topeka corridors. Threats included large hail (1–2.5 inches), damaging winds (60–80 mph), and a low tornado risk, concurrent with Flood Watches for the KC metro. Active warnings earlier included destructive wind threats over the Kansas City area; preliminary hail and wind reports occurred in central Kansas. Storms continue to track east as the watch ends.
Western OK / eastern TX Panhandle / west TX — Watches 683 and 684 live
Western Oklahoma and the eastern Texas Panhandle into northwest Texas remain under Watch 683 until Midnight CDT / 0500Z; west Texas under Watch 684 until 2 AM CDT / 0700Z. Threats: large to very large hail (to 2.75 inches), damaging winds (to 81 mph), and an isolated tornado. LSRs include 2.75-inch hail near Matador and Mclean TX, 2.50-inch hail near Hedley TX, and an 81 mph gust near Turkey TX. Prior mesoscale discussion 2371 noted an organizing cluster across southwestern into central Oklahoma. The WPC Slight ERO extends into the region.
Overnight Marginal and western/central NY
A Marginal Risk continues for isolated severe gusts. Scattered storms remain possible in western and central New York with a watch unlikely. Overnight Marginal expansion into far northeast Oklahoma, southeast Kansas, and southwest Missouri is possible for organized wind if convection persists along the front.
Just Hit
Preliminary SPC Local Storm Reports (from 1200 UTC Oct 13 through ~2344 UTC): hail to 2.75 inches near Matador (Motley County, TX) and Mclean (Wheeler County, TX), 2.50 inches near Hedley (Donley County, TX), 2.00 inches near Lipscomb TX, 1.75 inches near Matador, and multiple 1.00-inch reports across KS/OK/TX. Wind reports: 81 mph measured near Turkey (Hall County, TX), 75 mph near Flomot (Motley County, TX), 70 mph near Easton KS (power pole down), 63 mph near McAdoo TX, and tree limbs down near Hazelton KS. Radar-indicated larger hail and 70–80 mph gusts occurred under active warnings, including earlier destructive threats over the Kansas City metro. No tornado reports have been received. Residual minor Flood Warnings elsewhere remain non-severe leftovers.
Pulse Table
Region
Main threats
SPC / NWS / WPC level
Status this afternoon
KS / NW MO
Large hail (1–2.5″), damaging wind (60–80 mph), isolated tornado, heavy rain
Two watches active; short-fuse warnings and preliminary reports ongoing
Restoration Read
Slight Risk severe weather continues under live Watches 683 and 684 (Watch 682 expired), with preliminary LSRs confirming large hail (to 2.75 inches) and damaging wind gusts (to 81 mph) across the Texas Panhandle and central Kansas. Teams covering Kansas City, Wichita, Topeka, Amarillo, Lubbock, and Oklahoma corridors should stage for tree, roof, siding, and exterior damage from hail and gusts. Concurrent Flood Slight and active Flood Watches make water the co-equal ticket; monitor low-lying areas, creeks, and urban runoff as rainfall rates climb. No tropical or coastal surge tickets. Standard posture: confirm county products on weather.gov, stage for mixed wind/hail/water response, and re-check as storms continue overnight.
What This Is Not
Not an official warning. Not an Enhanced or higher severe day. Not a Moderate or higher excessive rainfall day. Not a tropical threat to the U.S. coast or Gulf. Not a reason to invent tornadoes or widespread damage beyond the preliminary reports. The Slight remains the official category; Watches 683 and 684 confirm the threat is still underway in the southern portions. All reports remain preliminary and subject to revision.
Looking Ahead One Day
SPC Day 2 Outlook places a Slight Risk over portions of the southern Plains into the Ozark Plateau (mainly damaging winds, with isolated hail and a tornado or two possible) for Wednesday afternoon and evening, with Marginal elsewhere including parts of the upper Ohio Valley. WPC continues the multi-day heavy rain potential into the Plains/Missouri Valley corridor. Cooler air is expected later in the week.
Informational only — not an official weather warning. Confirm local products on weather.gov before travel or work. Watches and warnings expire and are replaced. Preliminary reports can change.
Wednesday morning desk. Florida owns the water. The organized severe window is closed. Not an NWS warning.
This is the Wednesday morning Storm Tracker desk for October 7, 2026. Overnight into this morning the severe board stayed empty. The Storm Prediction Center 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook, issued 7:43 a.m. CDT, has no severe thunderstorm areas forecast. Organized severe thunderstorms are unlikely across the United States today and tonight. No convective watches are valid. The Weather Prediction Center holds a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall for much of the Florida Peninsula through 12 UTC Thursday, after a live flood warning on the Jacksonville metro from overnight rain.
These are county- and ZIP-scale flood and river tickets, not a plains outbreak and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall this morning. Tropical Storm Isaias is a Friday northern Gulf planning note. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.
What is live this morning
SPC language at 7:43 a.m. CDT: no tornado, wind, or hail risk areas. General thunderstorm areas remain drawn over parts of Florida, the northern tier into northern New York, and scattered western terrain, but that is thunder coverage, not a severe category. The most recent convective watch on the SPC board is Severe Thunderstorm Watch 676, issued September 30 for west-central Texas. It expired at midnight CDT that night. Nothing replaced it overnight.
West-central Florida is the place SPC is still watching, even with probabilities withheld. The setup looks like yesterday: a weak surface wave and a front from the northeast Gulf east-northeast across the middle of the Peninsula. Showers and some thunderstorms were already on either side of the front early this morning. The 12 UTC Tampa Bay sounding sampled 2.53 inches of precipitable water, with 70s dewpoints near and south of the front. Cloud cover and ongoing rain keep lapse rates poor and buoyancy thin. Effective shear is generally 25 knots or less. Some low-level veering could support a transient supercell, and waterspout potential exists offshore. SPC says it is unclear whether a tornadic waterspout reaches the west-central Peninsula or whether supercells develop inland. Severe risk stays low unless a later outlook adds probabilities. The next Day 1 update is scheduled by 1630 UTC.
Northern New York is the other convective note. Isolated low-topped thunderstorms are possible late today and more so tonight as an amplifying upper trough and a cold front approach. Buoyancy is limited. Gusty winds are plausible tonight as low- and mid-level flow increases and lapse rates steepen above the boundary layer. That is a local wind and lightning desk, not a watch.
Hotspot 1 — Florida Peninsula flood pulse
WPC’s Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, updated 0831 UTC (5:03 a.m. EDT), keeps a Marginal Risk over much of the Florida Peninsula, valid 12 UTC Wednesday through 12 UTC Thursday. A slow, strong front stays draped across the northern Peninsula. South of it, precipitable water is above 2.25 inches. Light to moderate rain continues along I-4 and generally south of I-10, with localized convection that can stall. The Marginal is there because a cell that hits an urban or flood-prone spot can exceed flash-flood guidance. Four Corners showers this afternoon stay sub-Marginal on the WPC discussion.
The overnight ticket that already verified is Jacksonville. The National Weather Service in Jacksonville issued a Flood Warning at 5:20 a.m. EDT for southeastern Duval County and north-central St. Johns County, in effect until 8:15 a.m. EDT. Doppler radar showed heavy rain from thunderstorms. Between 3 and 7 inches had fallen, with up to 2 more inches possible. Locations named in the warning include Jacksonville, Arlington, Ponte Vedra Beach, Jacksonville Beach, Atlantic Beach, Neptune Beach, Baymeadows, UNF, and Craig Field. Streams were still rising from the last 12 hours of runoff. That warning is short-fuse urban water, not a multi-day river crest.
River warnings are the slower desk. NWS Tampa Bay issued a Flood Warning at 6:34 a.m. EDT for the Withlacoochee at U.S. 41 Dunnellon, affecting Levy, Marion, and Citrus counties, until further notice. Minor flooding. Stage was 28.2 feet at 5:45 a.m. EDT, at flood stage, with docks and boat ramps flooding. The office tied the elevated stage to hydrilla acting like a dam along a 4.5-mile stretch between U.S. 41 and Lake Rousseau, with levels expected to stay steady or rise if more rain falls in the basin. NWS Melbourne continues a Flood Warning for the St. Johns River near Astor, affecting Volusia and Lake counties. At 8:30 p.m. EDT Tuesday the stage was 2.4 feet, flood stage 2.3 feet, with a rise toward 2.7 feet late this week. Docks, ramps, and low roads nearest the river are the impact language.
Restoration read: Jacksonville Beach through Arlington is the just-hit extraction window if water is inside. Do not wait on a severe watch that is not coming. Dunnellon and Astor are river-bottom and marina tickets, not a new convective outbreak. West-central Florida stays a monitor for a brief waterspout or a stalled cell, not a hail board.
Hotspot 2 — Iowa river aftermath
The Quad Cities office extended minor flood warnings Tuesday evening on the Cedar and Iowa rivers. Cedar River near Conesville, affecting Muscatine and Louisa counties, was at 13.9 feet at 8 p.m. CDT Tuesday, cresting, flood stage 13.0 feet, warning until late Thursday night, with water affecting residences along County Road F70. Iowa River at Oakville was 11.1 feet, flood stage 11.0, expected below flood stage Thursday afternoon. Iowa River at Wapello was 21.5 feet, flood stage 21.0, until Friday morning, with agricultural land and secondary roads in Wapello Bottoms in the impact language. Iowa River at Marengo, Iowa and Benton counties, remains under a warning until late Friday night. These are falling or cresting river tickets from earlier rain, not a new SPC day.
Restoration read: drying and access on the bottoms, not a hail or wind callout. Do not pull a plains severe crew for Louisa County this morning.
Just hit
SPC local storm reports for the window from 1200 UTC Tuesday through 1159 UTC Wednesday show no tornado, hail, or wind reports. Today’s report page, which opened at 1200 UTC Wednesday, is also empty as of this desk. Yesterday’s Marginal tornado area on the west-central Florida coast, and Mesoscale Discussion 2346, did not produce a logged land report. The 0100 UTC Tuesday-night outlook had already pulled severe probabilities after rotating storms weakened approaching the western peninsula shoreline.
The verified overnight hit is water, not wind: 3 to 7 inches in southeastern Duval and north-central St. Johns, with the Jacksonville flood warning still live into the morning commute. Panhandle work from earlier in the week remains aftermath. Nothing new was logged from a convective watch, because none was in effect.
Tropical note — Isaias, not a landfall
National Hurricane Center Advisory 3 at 4:00 a.m. CDT upgraded Tropical Depression Nine to Tropical Storm Isaias. Center near 22.0 N, 94.1 W, about 285 miles west of Progreso, Mexico, and about 580 miles southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi River. Movement east-northeast near 8 mph. Maximum sustained winds near 40 mph. Minimum pressure 1004 mb. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles. No coastal watches or warnings are in effect. NHC says interests on the Yucatan Peninsula and the U.S. northern Gulf Coast should monitor the storm, and that hurricane watches will likely be required for a portion of the northern Gulf coast later today.
Forecast track: pass north of the Yucatan on Thursday and approach the U.S. northern Gulf Coast on Friday. Rapid strengthening is forecast, with Isaias expected to become a hurricane by Thursday. Rainfall on U.S. land is a Friday-through-weekend item, not this morning’s ticket: 3 to 6 inches, localized up to 10, from far southeastern Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle, and 1 to 3 inches, localized up to 5, across much of the Southeast as far north as the Tennessee Valley and the Carolinas. Flash, urban, and isolated river flooding will be possible then. Swells reach the Gulf Coast late this week. Offshore hurricane and tropical-storm warnings are already on Gulf marine zones. That is marine, not a coastal warning for land. Hurricane Rachel is in the eastern Pacific, well west of Baja California, and is not a U.S. land threat this morning.
Pulse table
Region
Main threats
SPC / NWS / WPC level
Status this morning
Jacksonville metro / St. Johns
Urban flood, standing water, stream rise
NWS Flood Warning until 8:15 a.m. EDT; 3–7 inches overnight
Just hit, warning still live
Florida Peninsula
Training rain, urban flooding, brief waterspout offshore
WPC Marginal excessive rain; SPC no severe area
Live flood pulse; severe low
Withlacoochee at Dunnellon
Minor river flooding, docks and ramps
NWS Flood Warning until further notice
Live, hydrilla-elevated stage
St. Johns at Astor
Minor river flooding
NWS Flood Warning continues
Rising toward late week
Cedar and Iowa rivers
Minor river flooding, bottoms roads
NWS flood warnings into Thursday–Friday
Aftermath, cresting or falling
Northern New York
Low-topped storms, gusty wind tonight
SPC general thunder, no severe area
Late today into tonight
Northern Gulf / Isaias
Future wind, surge, 3–6 inches Friday–weekend
NHC TS, 40 mph; no land watches yet
Planning note, not a today landfall
What this means for restoration teams
This morning’s work is water that already fell. Three to seven inches in southeastern Duval and north-central St. Johns is wet drywall, soaked lower cabinets, and a 24–48 hour mold clock if water crossed the threshold. Standing water on Beach Boulevard corridors and low lots is an access problem before it is a rebuild. Photograph in daylight only if it is safe. Turn around, don’t drown.
Dunnellon and Astor are slower. Marina docks, ramps, and the first roads off the river are the exposure, not a roof-tarping line. Iowa bottoms are the same class of ticket farther north: agricultural land and secondary roads, residences along County Road F70 near Conesville if the stage holds. Do not staff those as a severe-wind event.
West-central Florida does not earn a severe board until SPC draws one. If a waterspout comes ashore, it is a narrow coastal survey, not a regional callout. Northern New York gusts tonight, if they verify, are tree-on-line and light roof work on a limited buoyancy profile.
Isaias is not a roll-today storm. Hurricane watches may come up later today for part of the northern Gulf coast. Friday is the approach day on the current NHC track, with the heavier rain from southeastern Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle after that. Stage the planning conversation. Do not pull crews off the Jacksonville flood warning for a center that is still about 580 miles southwest of the Mississippi mouth.
What this is not
This is not a Slight Risk day and not a convective watch morning. SPC logged no severe reports overnight. It is not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. Offshore hurricane warnings on Gulf marine zones are for waters, not for a coastal county warning yet. The local-storm pattern this desk should staff is Florida urban water, two Florida river gauges, and leftover Iowa river flooding.
Looking ahead
SPC’s Day 2 outlook, issued late Tuesday night, also has no severe thunderstorm areas for Thursday. Isolated low-topped storms are possible from the upper Hudson Valley into Maine, with very small hail not ruled out under cold temperatures aloft. Florida keeps scattered afternoon storms in rich moisture as Isaias strengthens over the central Gulf, but Thursday severe is not expected on that outlook because of weak shear and poor lapse rates. The change to watch is NHC: hurricane watches likely later today for a portion of the northern Gulf coast, then the Friday approach. The afternoon desk should say whether SPC added a Florida severe probability and whether a land watch is up.
Sources and how to verify
Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook for Wednesday, October 7, 2026 (7:43 a.m. CDT); SPC current watches page (no watches valid; last issued watch 676, September 30); SPC preliminary local storm reports for October 6 and October 7; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, updated 0831 UTC October 7; National Weather Service flood products from Jacksonville, Tampa Bay, Melbourne, and Quad Cities; National Hurricane Center Tropical Storm Isaias Advisory 3, 4:00 a.m. CDT October 7.
This is a live Monday morning snapshot of local storm-type events across the United States as of Monday, September 14, 2026. Overnight the organized wind corridor that ran the upper Ohio Valley into New York is down. No Storm Prediction Center watches are currently valid. The Day 1 Convective Outlook issued 0746 AM CDT holds a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of eastern Nebraska into western and central Iowa this afternoon and evening. Large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes all appear possible. The Weather Prediction Center overlays a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall on central and southwestern Iowa, with a broader Slight Risk from eastern Nebraska through the Midwest and a separate Slight Risk over the Southwest monsoon corridor.
These are county- and ZIP-scale thunderstorms and flash-flood pulses, not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. Restoration exposure today is wind and hail on the Nebraska–Iowa Slight, interior water where Iowa cells train south of I-80 tonight, and leftover tree-and-roof work from Sunday evening in Ohio, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and New York. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.
What is live this morning
SPC lists no current convective watches. The most recently issued watch was number 667 earlier in the week; Sunday’s Ohio Valley–Northeast slight-risk corridor produced local severe thunderstorm warnings and wind damage but did not carry an overnight watch into Monday morning.
The 1300 UTC Day 1 outlook (valid 1300Z Monday through 1200Z Tuesday) draws the Slight Risk from roughly Grand Island and Hastings east-northeast through Omaha and Lincoln into western and central Iowa, including the Des Moines metro on the eastern edge. A Marginal Risk wraps a wider ring from the Dakotas and Minnesota south through Kansas. Elevated convection is already ongoing this morning across the central Plains and mid Missouri Valley on a strong low-level jet. SPC expects that band to stay mostly sub-severe and weaken late morning, then a new surface-based corridor to fire along or just ahead of a cold front across eastern Nebraska by late afternoon.
WPC’s Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, updated 0733 UTC, is the louder product this morning: Moderate Risk over portions of central and southwestern Iowa, with locally 3 to 6 inches possible south of I-80 toward Des Moines and points southwest. A broad Slight Risk still covers much of the Midwest from eastern Nebraska through southern Minnesota and the Door Peninsula, plus a separate Slight over eastern Arizona, New Mexico, and southwestern Colorado.
Hotspot 1 — Eastern Nebraska into western and central Iowa
This is today’s organized severe desk. A mid-level shortwave and 50–70-plus kt mid-level jet move east-northeast across the northern Plains. Rich low-level moisture is forecast to stream north into eastern Nebraska and western Iowa after morning convection clears. SPC allows a narrow corridor of 2,000–3,000+ J/kg MLCAPE if surface temperatures reach the low to mid 80s by late afternoon. Initial storms should be supercellular enough for large hail. Mode is expected to transition quickly to clusters and line segments. A 40–50 kt nocturnal low-level jet supports ample storm-relative helicity this evening; a sustained surface-based supercell would conditionally be capable of a strong tornado. That is the official language, not a guarantee that one occurs.
Cities and counties to watch: Lincoln, Omaha, Council Bluffs, Sioux City, Des Moines, Ames, and the I-80 belt from Grand Island through western Iowa. Watch issuance, if it comes, is an afternoon product — not a morning one.
Restoration read: hail and wind first on the Nebraska side; water second once the same storms cluster over Iowa after dark. Stage tarps and generators before 4 p.m. local. If a warning includes both wind and heavy rain, treat the ZIP as a dual ticket by morning.
Hotspot 2 — Central and southwestern Iowa flood overlay
WPC introduced a small Moderate Risk for D1 in coordination with the Des Moines office. HREF blended mean QPF runs 3–5 inches over the area encompassing Des Moines and points south and southwest. Neighborhood probabilities for more than 3 inches are 60–80 percent in that pocket, with 25–30 percent for more than 5 inches. Three-hour flash-flood guidance exceedance sits 50–70 percent. The main concerns are urban footprints and low-water crossings south of I-80. Heavy rain is expected to linger into early Tuesday morning.
A broader Slight still covers eastern Nebraska into southern Minnesota. Isolated flash-flood concerns this morning ride the progressive elevated band; the more appreciable footprint is the evening and overnight wave.
Restoration read: this is tonight’s water ticket. Extraction and drying clocks start the same night water is inside. Do not wait for a river flood warning if streets and finished basements are already taking the 1-inch-per-hour cores.
Hotspot 3 — Sunday just-hit and Southwest scatter
Overnight LSRs from the 1200 UTC Sunday–Monday window show the Ohio Valley–Northeast slight-risk corridor verified as wind, not tornadoes. Preliminary reports include a roof ripped off a home and multiple trees down in Fox Township, Carroll County, Ohio; trees and wires across Lawrence, Butler, Crawford, McKean, and Clearfield counties in Pennsylvania; trees on structures and roads in Washington County, Ohio, and Wood County, West Virginia; and additional tree and wire damage in Onondaga, Oneida, Franklin, Fulton, and Saratoga counties in New York. Isolated 1.00-inch hail fell near Monarch and Raynesford, Montana, and 2 south of Sterling, Nebraska, after midnight. A 61 mph gust was measured near Patagonia, Arizona.
Today the Southwest stays a flood-and-outflow desk. WPC keeps a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over eastern Arizona, much of New Mexico, and southwestern Colorado on monsoon-style cells, burn scars, and slot canyons. SPC does not carry 5 percent severe probabilities there, but isolated strong gusts and small to near-severe hail are possible where heating is strongest. Eastern North Carolina sits under a cold front with only a low-end isolated wind/hail mention.
Just hit
Sunday’s upper Ohio Valley–central New York Slight Risk is yesterday’s ticket: trees, wires, and isolated roof work from eastern Ohio through northwest Pennsylvania into central New York. Watch 667 from Saturday is long expired. There is no named tropical cyclone threatening U.S. land this morning. National Hurricane Center discussion shows no Atlantic tropical cyclones; Tropical Storm Norbert and a weakening eastern Pacific depression are well offshore and not a mainland or Hawaii landfall problem today.
Pulse table
Region
Main threats
SPC / NWS / WPC level
Status this morning
Eastern NE / western–central IA
Large hail, damaging wind, few tornadoes possible
SPC Slight (1300Z)
Afternoon–evening; no watch yet
SW / central Iowa south of I-80
Flash flood, 3–6″ local totals
WPC Moderate excessive rainfall
Evening into Tuesday morning
OH / PA / WV / NY from Sunday
Trees, wires, isolated roof damage
LSRs; watches expired
Aftermath
Eastern CO / western–northern KS
Isolated severe gusts, high-based cells
SPC Marginal
Afternoon scatter
AZ / NM / SW CO
Flash flood, strong outflow
WPC Slight
Afternoon–evening cells
Atlantic / Gulf vs. U.S. mainland
No landfalling tropical cyclone
NHC quiet on the mainland
Quiet
What this means for restoration teams
Eastern Nebraska this evening is hail and wind: roofs, siding, screens, and vehicles. Western and central Iowa is the dual ticket — the same storms that throw hail west of the Missouri River can train 3-plus inches of rain over Des Moines and counties southwest of I-80 after dark. A brief tornado, if one occurs, is a narrow swath. Staff it as a local damage survey, not a regional outbreak.
Sunday’s Ohio–Pennsylvania–New York wind is already on the books: tree-on-structure, service drops, and isolated roof peel. Photograph remaining damage in daylight if it is safe, then move crews toward the Nebraska–Iowa corridor rather than chasing last night’s counties unless a specific claim is already open.
What this is not
This is not a regional derecho and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. The work today, if it verifies, will be scattered: a hail swath through an eastern Nebraska county, a flooded intersection south of I-80 in Iowa, leftover trees in Ohio or New York. That is the local-storm pattern this desk should staff.
Looking ahead
SPC Day 2 is a Marginal Risk as the same trough lifts toward the Upper Great Lakes. Day 3 currently carries no severe area. WPC language keeps heavy rain lingering into early Tuesday over the same Iowa footprint. Watch the afternoon Storm Tracker rather than assuming the 1300Z Slight is the last line of the day — a watch can still go up if the warm sector destabilizes as drawn.
Sources and how to verify
Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook for Monday, September 14, 2026 (Gleason/Lyons); SPC current watch page (no watches valid as of 1010 UTC); SPC preliminary local storm reports for the 13/1200Z–14/1159Z window; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook updated 0733 UTC; National Hurricane Center Atlantic and East Pacific discussions this morning.
This is a live Sunday morning snapshot of local storm-type events across the United States as of the early hours of Sunday, September 13, 2026. Overnight into this morning the south-central Plains watch expired. Severe Thunderstorm Watch 667 is no longer valid. The Storm Prediction Center 1300 UTC Day 1 outlook holds a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of the Ohio Valley into the Northeast, and a second Marginal Risk across the central and northern High Plains, valid 131300Z–141200Z.
These remain county- and ZIP-scale thunderstorms, not a mainland hurricane landfall. Restoration exposure this morning is leftover Kansas wind and hail from last night, plus an afternoon wind corridor from Ohio into western New York and the Northeast if the front organizes. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.
What is live this morning
No convective watches are currently valid. The most recently issued watch was Watch 667, covering portions of southwest Kansas, Oklahoma, and the Texas Panhandle through 10:00 p.m. CDT Saturday. That watch is expired. SPC’s 0744 AM CDT Sunday discussion (Gleason/Lyons) expects isolated to scattered thunderstorms along and ahead of a cold front by mid-afternoon (around 19–22Z) from parts of Ohio into western New York, then spreading quickly east across the upper Ohio Valley into the Northeast.
Deep-layer shear of 35–45 kt is enough for supercells at first and a marginal, isolated hail threat despite poor lapse rates aloft. Clusters and bowing segments with isolated damaging wind are the more likely mode once linear forcing of the front takes over. Confidence is too low for higher wind probabilities. Convection should weaken this evening as it moves into a less unstable airmass.
A separate Marginal Risk sits from northeast Colorado into southeast Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle late afternoon, with elevated storms possible later tonight across western and central South Dakota toward the mid-Missouri Valley. Isolated hail and wind are the language there, not a watch.
Hotspot 1 — Upper Ohio Valley into the Northeast
This is today’s live outlook corridor, not a live watch. A surface cold front tracks east under a strengthening west-southwesterly mid-level jet. Seasonably moist low-level air is in place, but poor mid-level lapse rates and cloud cover should keep instability marginal. That is why this is a Marginal Risk and not a Slight.
Cities and counties to watch this afternoon and evening: Columbus, Cleveland, Cincinnati, Dayton, and neighboring Ohio counties; Pittsburgh and the western Pennsylvania ridge; Buffalo and western New York; the northern West Virginia panhandle. SPC lists a Day 1 Marginal footprint of about 163,000 square miles and roughly 22.7 million people, with Columbus, Cleveland, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, and Buffalo named in the risk-area list.
Bands of precipitation with embedded thunderstorms were already ongoing this morning across New Jersey into southern New York and New England. Most guidance keeps that activity elevated over land. Trends still get monitored for any surface-based instability over Long Island and southern New England.
Restoration read: wind first if cells organize after 3 p.m. local. Stage tarps and tree crews in the Ohio–Pennsylvania–western New York strip before late afternoon, not after the first warning. Water is secondary unless a cell trains on ground already wet from Saturday’s Ohio Valley–Mid-Atlantic rain.
Hotspot 2 — Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas Panhandle just-hit
Watch 667 is the overnight ticket, not today’s new watch. Preliminary SPC local storm reports from the 12 UTC Saturday–12 UTC Sunday window include 2.00-inch hail north of Coldwater in Comanche County, Kansas, and northwest of Wilmore in Kiowa County around 0010–0015 UTC; golf-ball hail earlier near Beatrice, Nebraska, and Randall, Kansas; and measured wind of 84 mph at Chanute Martin Johnson Airport (KCNU) at 0545 UTC, with power outages and tree branches down in Chanute and utility poles near Galesburg in Neosho County. Additional measured gusts of 75 mph on the Kansas mesonet east-southeast of Acres in Clark County, 64 mph near Darrouzett in Lipscomb County, Texas, and snapped poles and a grain auger south of Perryton, Texas, sit in the same family.
Those are already claims. Photograph in daylight if it is safe. The new work today, if it verifies after 13 UTC Sunday, is isolated damaging wind on the Ohio Valley–Northeast Marginal Risk plus isolated High Plains hail and wind.
Hotspot 3 — High Plains and leftover water
A closed mid- and upper-level low over the Pacific Northwest this morning moves toward the northern Rockies and High Plains. Destabilization is limited. A narrow upslope corridor from northeast Colorado into southeast Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle is the afternoon cell area. Elevated storms may increase later tonight over western and central South Dakota toward the mid-Missouri Valley, with isolated hail on the first development.
Saturday’s Weather Prediction Center Day 1 excessive-rainfall outlook carried a Slight Risk over portions of the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and southern Arizona, with the northern New Jersey–New York City–Long Island piece weighted toward late Saturday night into Sunday. That water is already in streets, small streams, and some interiors. Treat leftover flood statements as aftermath, not a new national headline, and check the current WPC Day 1 map and local NWS flood products before you assign a crew.
Just hit
Saturday’s Kansas–Oklahoma Slight Risk and Watch 667 produced the hail and wind listed above. Pennsylvania tree and wire reports from Saturday afternoon in Washington, Allegheny, Westmoreland, Indiana, Jefferson, and Greene counties are already on the books from the previous flood-and-wind pulse. A Flagler County, Florida, landspout near Palm Coast and an EF-0 survey east of Spring Grove in Surry County, Virginia, are local Saturday reports, not today’s organized corridor.
The National Hurricane Center discussion this morning shows no named tropical cyclone threatening U.S. land. The Atlantic remains quiet for a named-storm landfall. A central Atlantic wave is being monitored at low odds and is not a U.S. mainland desk item this morning.
Pulse table
Region
Main threats
SPC / NWS level
Status this morning
Upper OH Valley / Northeast
Isolated damaging wind, brief hail
SPC Marginal (Day 1 1300 UTC)
Outlook live; no watch
Central / northern High Plains
Isolated hail and wind
SPC Marginal
Late afternoon into tonight
SW Kansas / Oklahoma / TX Panhandle
Wind to 84 mph, 2-inch hail overnight
Watch 667 expired
Just-hit / claims
OH Valley–Mid-Atlantic water
Flash flood leftover from Saturday Slight ERO
Local flood products
Aftermath; verify county
Atlantic / Gulf vs. U.S. mainland
No landfalling named storm
NHC quiet on the coast
Quiet
What this means for restoration teams
An 84 mph airport gust and snapped poles are roof, siding, tree-on-structure, and service-drop work in Neosho, Comanche, Kiowa, Clark, and neighboring Kansas counties plus the Perryton, Texas, corridor. Two-inch hail is vehicle and roof claims on a narrow path. Today’s Ohio Valley–Northeast Marginal Risk is a thinner wind desk: isolated gusts, not a regional derecho. Staff it as county warnings, not a multi-state surge.
Water from Saturday night into Sunday morning along the I-95 and upper Ohio Valley axis is a 24–48 hour mold clock if it is already inside. Do not send the same crew to Chanute wind and a Pittsburgh or northern New Jersey water job without checking which county still has a warning.
What this is not
This is not a live severe thunderstorm watch and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. The work this morning is leftover Kansas and Texas Panhandle wind and hail. The work this afternoon, if it comes, will be scattered wind along the front from Ohio into the Northeast and isolated High Plains cells. That is the local-storm pattern this desk should staff.
Looking ahead
Monday (Day 2) the SPC has a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms late afternoon into evening across parts of eastern Nebraska into western and central Iowa — an isolated severe storm or two, and perhaps a small organizing cluster, near Omaha, Lincoln, Council Bluffs, and Ames. Destabilization along a northward-retreating front remains the uncertainty. Watch the next Storm Tracker update rather than assuming Sunday’s Marginal Risk is the last line of the week.
Sources and how to verify
Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center Sep 13, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook; SPC current watches page (no watches valid as of 0814 UTC Sunday; most recently issued watch 667); SPC today’s storm reports for the 20260912 1200 UTC–20260913 1159 UTC window; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook language covering Saturday into early Sunday; National Hurricane Center Atlantic tropical weather discussion 1215 UTC Sunday; National Weather Service warning text for Wichita, Dodge City, Amarillo, Cleveland, Pittsburgh, Buffalo, and neighboring offices.
This is a live Saturday morning snapshot of local storm-type events across the United States as of the early hours of Saturday, September 12, 2026. Overnight into this morning the organized severe pulse that ran eastern South Dakota into Minnesota has expired. Severe Thunderstorm Watch 666 is down. No convective watches are valid as of mid-morning UTC. The Storm Prediction Center 1300 UTC Day 1 outlook has upgraded the afternoon and evening corridor to a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of the central and southern Plains into the Ozarks. The Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook holds a Slight Risk for portions of the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic.
These are county- and ZIP-scale thunderstorms, not a mainland hurricane landfall. Restoration exposure today is large hail and damaging wind on the Plains, plus interior water where Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic cells train. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.
What expired overnight vs what is live this morning
Watch 666 covered southwestern into north-central Minnesota and eastern South Dakota from 6:40 p.m. to 10:00 p.m. CDT Friday. Primary language was scattered large hail, isolated very large hail to two inches, damaging gusts to 70 mph, and a tornado or two if a supercell held together early in the watch. That watch is expired. SPC current watches page as of 12:03 UTC Saturday: no watches valid. Last issued watch remains 666.
What is live this morning is the outlook, not a watch. The 0748 AM CDT Saturday Day 1 convective outlook is valid 1300 UTC Saturday through 1200 UTC Sunday. Headline: there is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of the central and southern Plains. Summary language: isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms capable of large to very large hail and severe or damaging winds may occur across parts of the central and southern Plains into the Ozarks this afternoon and evening. A separate Marginal Risk corridor remains over the upper Ohio Valley for isolated damaging gusts this afternoon.
WPC’s current Day 1 excessive-rainfall outlook, issued 339 AM EDT Saturday and valid 12Z Saturday to 12Z Sunday, keeps a Slight Risk of rainfall exceeding flash-flood guidance for portions of the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic. Precipitable water of 2.0 to 2.25 inches is forecast to stream north along the I-95 corridor from Richmond and Washington toward Baltimore and Philadelphia by Saturday evening, then into the New York metro and lower Long Island late Saturday night. That late-night northern end of the slight risk is expected to linger into Sunday (Day 2).
Hotspot 1 — Southern Kansas, northern Oklahoma, eastern Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles into the Ozarks
This is today’s severe ticket. Elevated storms persisted overnight into early morning across southern Nebraska into eastern Kansas and western Missouri on a modest low-level jet. SPC expects that activity to weaken through the remainder of the morning, with some guidance still showing additional development along outflow across southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma. A fairly strong cold front is draped from eastern Colorado into Kansas and northwest Missouri. That boundary is the afternoon focus.
Along and south of the front, a narrow zone of moderate to strong instability (MLCAPE 2000–3500 J/kg) is forecast this afternoon from the eastern Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles into southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma. Deep-layer shear of about 30–40 kt is enough for organized updrafts. Isolated robust development along the front is favored around 21–23Z once convective temperatures are reached. Sustained supercells would pose a threat for large to very large hail, including isolated two-inch-plus stones. Higher-based convection from the eastern Panhandles into southwest and south-central Kansas and northern Oklahoma favors scattered severe downdrafts. Some gusts could exceed 75 mph. Clustering later this afternoon and evening remains uncertain, but isolated damaging wind may persist into much of Oklahoma and the Ozarks if upstream storms in Kansas and western Missouri stay organized.
Cities and counties to watch: Wichita, Hutchinson, Emporia, Liberal, and Derby in the Slight Risk core; Oklahoma City, Tulsa, and Kansas City sit in the surrounding Marginal Risk. Restoration read: hail first in the Slight Risk, then wind. Stage tarps and roof kits before mid-afternoon local. If a cell trains on the same ZIP, treat it as a water job by morning.
Hotspot 2 — Ohio Valley through the Mid-Atlantic I-95 corridor
This is today’s flood ticket, not the hail ticket. SPC keeps only a Marginal Risk of isolated damaging wind across parts of the upper Ohio Valley this afternoon in a narrow corridor of filtered heating between denser clouds over Ohio and a stationary boundary to the east. Mid-level lapse rates stay poor. The bigger operational signal is WPC. HREF signals include moderate-to-high chances of three- and six-hour flash-flood-guidance exceedance in the upper Ohio Valley, and a 20–40 percent chance of three-hour QPF over two inches from the Richmond area late Saturday afternoon, then from northeast Maryland into the Delaware Valley and southern New Jersey Saturday night. The Slight Risk was extended north through eastern Pennsylvania, northern New Jersey, and into the New York metro and lower Long Island, with that northern end weighted late Saturday night into Sunday.
Cities and counties to watch: Pittsburgh and western Pennsylvania, northern West Virginia, the upper Ohio Valley; Richmond, Washington, Baltimore, Philadelphia, northern New Jersey, New York City, and lower Long Island on the late-day and overnight rain axis. Restoration read: urban street flooding, low crossings, and wet drywall where cells train. The 24–48 hour mold clock starts when water is inside, not when the outlook expires.
Hotspot 3 — Just-hit Upper Midwest and leftover Arizona water
Friday evening’s Slight Risk over far eastern South Dakota into Minnesota verified locally. Preliminary Storm Prediction Center local storm reports for the 1200 UTC Friday to 1159 UTC Saturday window include a tornado touchdown reported seven miles northeast of Artichoke in Stevens County, Minnesota, around 0051 UTC, plus downed power poles eight miles south of Alberta on County Highway 9. Golf-ball hail (1.75 inches) was reported east and south of Artichoke and south of Alberta. Half-dollar hail fell near Dumont, Herman, Norcross, and Toronto, South Dakota. Wind damage and trees on lines were reported around Chokio, Embarrass and Britt in St. Louis County, Whipholt and Longville in Cass County, and Blue Grass in Wadena County, with one report noting possible tornado damage and large trees blocking County Road 23.
Separate Friday hail and wind clusters hit Tarrant County, Texas (Arlington and Mansfield, golf-ball hail and trees and poles down), Bexar County, Texas after 0310 UTC (golf-ball hail near Converse), and a long tree-down corridor through South Carolina, North Carolina, and Virginia. Arizona flash-flood warnings fired Friday evening over Gila, Coconino, Navajo, Cochise, and Graham Counties, including fire-scar drainages. Those Arizona warnings were evening products; treat them as just-hit water, not today’s new Slight Risk.
Just hit
Minnesota and eastern South Dakota are yesterday’s tickets: hail, trees, poles, and at least one reported tornado touchdown that still needs a damage survey, not a new watch. North Texas and San Antonio-area hail are Friday afternoon and overnight work already on the books. The Carolinas and southern Virginia tree-down scatter is the same. Today’s new work, if it verifies, is the Kansas–Oklahoma hail and wind corridor plus localized flash flooding from the Ohio Valley onto the Mid-Atlantic I-95 axis tonight.
Pulse table
Region
Main threats
SPC / NWS / WPC level
Status this morning
Southern KS / northern OK / Panhandles / Ozarks
Large to very large hail, damaging wind, isolated 75+ mph gusts
SPC Slight (core) + Marginal surround
Outlook live; no watch yet
Upper Ohio Valley
Isolated damaging wind; heavy rain / flash flood
SPC Marginal + WPC Slight ERO
Afternoon increase
Mid-Atlantic I-95 (RIC–DC–BAL–PHL–NYC)
Training heavy rain, urban flash flood
WPC Slight ERO
Late afternoon through Saturday night
Eastern SD / west-central and northern MN
Hail, trees, poles, reported tornado
Watch 666 expired 10 p.m. CDT Fri
Aftermath / just-hit
North Texas / San Antonio metro
Friday hail and wind
Local LSRs
Aftermath
Southeast AZ fire scars / washes
Flash flood from Friday cells
Expired FFWs
Aftermath
Atlantic / Gulf vs. U.S. mainland
No landfalling tropical cyclone
NHC: formation not expected next 7 days in Atlantic
Quiet on the mainland coast
What this means for restoration teams
Two-inch hail is roof and auto glass work in the Slight Risk counties. Gusts of 60–75 mph are siding, gutter, and tree-on-structure work. A reported tornado near Artichoke, Minnesota, is a narrow swath — staff it as a local damage survey, not a regional event. Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic heavy rain is wet drywall and a same-night extraction clock if water is inside. Do not send the same crew to Wichita hail and Pittsburgh flooding without checking which county actually has a warning now.
For teams in or near the Kansas–Oklahoma Slight Risk: stage before mid-afternoon local, not after the first warning. Property owners should photograph damage in daylight if it is safe, call the carrier, and start extraction the same night if water is inside.
What this is not
This is not a regional derecho and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. National Hurricane Center Atlantic outlook at 800 AM EDT Saturday: tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next seven days. Eastern Pacific Tropical Storm Norbert is well west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California and is not a U.S. land threat. The work today, if it comes, will be scattered: a hail swath through a Kansas or Oklahoma county, a wind-thrown tree in the upper Ohio Valley, a flooded underpass where Mid-Atlantic cells train. That is the local-storm pattern this desk should staff.
Looking ahead
SPC Day 2 is a Marginal Risk Sunday afternoon and evening from western New England through the upper Ohio Valley for small to marginally severe hail and locally damaging gusts. Day 3 is also Marginal. Fire-weather outlooks are Elevated today and Sunday. The next Day 1 convective outlook is scheduled by 1630 UTC. Watch the afternoon Storm Tracker update rather than assuming this morning’s Slight Risk is the last line of the weekend.
Sources and how to verify
Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center Sep 12, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook (issued 0748 AM CDT); SPC current watches page (no watches valid; most recently issued Watch 666); SPC preliminary local storm reports for 20260911 1200 UTC–20260912 1159 UTC; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook issued 339 AM EDT Sat Sep 12, 2026; National Hurricane Center Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook 800 AM EDT Sat Sep 12, 2026; National Weather Service watch/warning text feed.
