Tag: Virginia storms

  • Storm Updates: New Mexico Flood Moderate, Utah–Southeast Marginal — Tuesday, September 22, 2026

    This is a live Tuesday afternoon snapshot of U.S. local-storm activity as of Tuesday, September 22, 2026. The organized flood desk remains over southern New Mexico. The Storm Prediction Center 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook still holds two Marginal Risk corridors — much of Utah into adjacent Wyoming and Colorado, and a portion of the Southeast that the 20Z update shifted farther south and east into central Georgia and southern Alabama. No convective watches are currently valid. Restoration exposure this afternoon into tonight is water first in southern New Mexico and far west Texas, isolated severe wind and marginally severe hail on the Utah corridor, locally severe gusts plus leftover flood axes in the Southeast and central Appalachians, and tree/wire work already on the board in Lauderdale County, Alabama.

    These are county- and ZIP-scale thunderstorms and flood pulses, not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. There is no named tropical cyclone threatening U.S. land this afternoon. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll. Morning desk: Storm Updates September 22, 2026 (Morning).

    What is live this afternoon

    SPC’s 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook (issued 2:56 p.m. CDT Tuesday, September 22, 2026; Halbert/Lyons; valid 222000Z–231200Z) keeps a Marginal Risk for much of Utah into adjacent Wyoming and Colorado, and across a portion of the Southeast. Summary: isolated severe wind gusts expected today in Utah into southwest Wyoming and western Colorado; thunderstorms capable of strong to locally severe damaging gusts also possible across parts of the Southeast. The 20Z update moved the Southeast Marginal farther south and east into central Georgia and southern Alabama, where storms had already developed in an unstable airmass with steep low-level lapse rates.

    No convective watches were currently valid as of the SPC watches page update at 15:56:05 UTC Tuesday, September 22, 2026. Most recent watch on the board: 0674. Check spc.noaa.gov/products/watch before you stage.

    WPC’s Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 1553 UTC Tuesday, September 22, 2026; Taylor/Chenard; valid 16Z Tue–12Z Wed) still holds a Moderate Risk across portions of southern New Mexico. WPC notes a potentially significant multi-day flood event over New Mexico and far southwest Texas, with 1–2 inches per hour rain rates this afternoon and training bands tonight. Neighborhood guidance: moderate chance of at least 3 inches (about 40–60 percent) and a low chance of at least 5 inches. Slight Risk axes remain over central to southeast Virginia into South Carolina and West Virginia into southwest Virginia. South Florida stays a WPC Marginal urban-flood desk.

    Live warning-scale water this afternoon includes NWS flash-flood warnings for parts of Lincoln/Socorro, Doña Ana/Otero in New Mexico, and Randolph/Webster in West Virginia — already hung as separate Tygart Media warning pulses. NWS also had a flood advisory for west-central Lee County, Alabama (Auburn/Opelika) into late afternoon and a severe thunderstorm warning earlier over Jackson and DeKalb Counties, Alabama.

    Hotspot 1 — Southern New Mexico / far west Texas

    Still the national flood desk. An upper trough, jet right-entrance dynamics, deep southerly moisture, and precipitable water toward mid/late September record levels support a multi-day event. Afternoon is scattered thunderstorms and flash-flood potential; overnight guidance concentrates a rain shield with heavier cores over southern New Mexico. Sacramento Mountains burn scars remain in the higher-impact language. Flash-flood warnings this afternoon already covered Lincoln, Socorro, Doña Ana, and Otero Counties.

    Restoration read: water first, overnight worse than the afternoon pulse. Stage pumps and air movers before the shield organizes. Low-water crossings and burn-scar runoff fail first. Start extraction the same night if water is inside.

    Hotspot 2 — Utah into southwest Wyoming and western Colorado

    SPC Marginal wind-and-hail corridor is the afternoon convective desk in the West. A potent shortwave over the western Great Basin and a belt of stronger mid-level flow from northern Arizona into central and northern Utah support scattered to numerous storms. Buoyancy stays modest (MLCAPE generally under 1,000 J/kg), but shear and cold mid-levels support organized cells, isolated large hail, and strong gusts off high bases and steep low-level lapse rates. Activity can spill into western Colorado and southwest Wyoming late afternoon into early evening. Larger centers inside the earlier outlook footprint include Salt Lake City, West Valley City, Provo, West Jordan, and Orem.

    Restoration read: wind and isolated hail, not a flood CAT. Stage tarps, generators, and tree crews before early evening. Soft-metal roofs and skylights after stronger cores only if it is safe.

    Hotspot 3 — Southeast / southern Appalachians

    SPC Marginal for the Southeast is a slow-moving cold front into a moist airmass. The 20Z update pulled the risk south and east into central Georgia and southern Alabama, matching storms already on radar. Weak shear keeps the mode multicellular and outflow-dominant; water-loaded downdrafts can still put 50–60 mph gusts on the ground. Today’s preliminary LSRs already show Lauderdale County, Alabama wind damage: power lines down west of Lexington around 1814 UTC, a power pole and lines on a vehicle west of Rogersville around 1835 UTC, and lines down at Lauderdale County High School and the adjacent parking lot around 1856 UTC (NWS Huntsville).

    WPC Slight flood axes remain over southeast Virginia into South Carolina and West Virginia into southwest Virginia, where soils are already wet and flash-flood guidance is lower. Randolph and Webster Counties, West Virginia, carried a live flash-flood warning into the evening.

    Restoration read: gusty wind and street flooding can share the same ZIP. Alabama tree and wire jobs are already tickets. Charlotte-to-Atlanta language from this morning is not a derecho — treat each county warning as a local pulse.

    Just hit

    SPC preliminary local storm reports for the 22/1200 UTC–23/1159 UTC window (as of this afternoon hang) show no tornado reports and no hail reports yet. Wind reports on the board are Lauderdale County, Alabama: lines down 3 W Lexington; pole and lines on a vehicle 2 W Rogersville; lines down at Lauderdale County High School in Rogersville. Those are already restoration tickets — trees, wire, and possible vehicle/roof work — not a regional outbreak.

    Monday night’s Appalachians–Southeast flash-flood pulse is aftermath. This afternoon’s live water is New Mexico and pockets of West Virginia, plus a Lee County, Alabama flood advisory earlier this afternoon.

    Pulse table

    RegionMain threatsSPC / WPC / NWS levelStatus this afternoon
    Southern NM / far west TXFlash flood, training rain tonight, burn-scar runoffWPC Moderate + live FFWsLive flood desk today–Wed
    Utah into SW WY / western COSevere wind gusts, isolated large hailSPC MarginalAfternoon–early evening
    SE / central GA / southern ALLocally severe damaging gusts, trees/wireSPC Marginal (shifted S/E at 20Z)Live; AL LSRs already in
    SE VA into SC; WV into SW VAFlash flood / heavy rainWPC Slight + WV FFWsToday into tonight
    South FloridaUrban flash floodWPC MarginalLocal
    U.S. mainland tropicsNo landfalling tropical cycloneNHC quiet for mainlandQuiet

    What this means for restoration teams

    Southern New Mexico is the water CAT if the Moderate risk verifies overnight — extraction, drying, and a 24–48 hour mold clock. Utah’s Marginal corridor is wind and isolated hail. Southeast Marginal wind is already producing Lauderdale County tickets; treat Georgia and Alabama warnings as local, not a derecho. West Virginia water is a second flood desk on already-wet ground. Stage New Mexico before the overnight shield. Start extraction the same night if water is inside. Turn around, don’t drown.

    What this is not

    This is not a regional derecho and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. Post-tropical Fay is open Atlantic near the Azores and is not a U.S. land threat. Hurricane Polo and Tropical Storm Odalys remain eastern Pacific systems and are not mainland landfall threats today. No convective watches are up. Do not invent a named CAT for Restoration Intel off this pulse.

    Looking ahead

    SPC’s current Day 2 outlook (Wednesday, September 23) is Marginal Risk as of the 1719 UTC issuance (Dean). Day 3 is currently no severe thunderstorms. That does not cancel tonight’s New Mexico flood problem or this evening’s Utah and Southeast Marginal corridors. Watch the next Storm Tracker update rather than assuming the Moderate rainfall risk is the last line of the week.

    Sources and how to verify

    Primary sources dated Tuesday, September 22, 2026: SPC 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook (Halbert/Lyons, 2:56 p.m. CDT); SPC watches page updated 15:56:05 UTC (no watches valid; last watch 0674); SPC today’s LSRs (Lauderdale County, AL wind); WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook updated 1553 UTC (Taylor/Chenard); NWS flash-flood warnings for Lincoln/Socorro, Doña Ana/Otero, NM and Randolph/Webster, WV; NHC advisories (Fay remnant, Polo, Odalys). Morning desk: September 22, 2026 (Morning).

    Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watch, and local storm reports, and WPC Day 1 ERO for the flood overlay.

    Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

  • Storm Updates: Upper Midwest Slight Risk, VA–NC Wind Scatter — Friday, September 11, 2026

    This is a live Friday afternoon snapshot of local storm-type events across the United States as of Friday, September 11, 2026. The organized pulse is still ahead of most radar cores: the Storm Prediction Center 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook keeps a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms across the Upper Midwest for late this afternoon and tonight. No convective watches are currently valid. Mesoscale Discussion 2281, issued 1937 UTC, flags a lower-end damaging-wind threat over parts of southern Virginia and northern North Carolina with watch issuance unlikely. The Weather Prediction Center holds a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall in far southern Arizona and northern Minnesota.

    These remain county- and ZIP-scale thunderstorms, not a mainland hurricane landfall. Tropical Storm Norbert is in the Eastern Pacific well west-southwest of Baja California and poses no threat to U.S. land. Restoration exposure this afternoon is wind, water, hail, and trees: large hail and damaging wind in the Minnesota–northeast South Dakota Slight Risk, isolated wind in the Virginia–North Carolina scatter, flash-flood rates in northern Minnesota and Santa Cruz County, Arizona, plus residual hail and pole work from last night’s Texas Panhandle event. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

    What is live this afternoon

    No severe thunderstorm or tornado watches are in effect as of the SPC watch page update Friday afternoon. The most recently issued watch remains Watch 665 from earlier in the week. Today’s official Local Storm Reports page (1200 UTC Friday through 1159 UTC Saturday) still shows no new tornado, hail, or wind reports in that window. Last night’s reports sit on the September 10 LSR page.

    SPC’s 2000 UTC Day 1 outlook (forecaster Wendt, issued 0300 PM CDT) is mostly on track from the morning package. Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of large hail (some 2+ inches), damaging winds, and a couple of tornadoes are expected late this afternoon and tonight across parts of the Upper Midwest. Initiation farther south into the central Plains remains more uncertain and conditional. Marginal wind/hail probabilities were extended into more of central Kansas for overnight conditional storms as the cold front reaches northern Kansas Saturday morning.

    WPC’s Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 1601 UTC, valid 16Z Friday–12Z Saturday) keeps Slight Risk language over far southern Arizona and northern Minnesota. The 16Z update expanded a Marginal Risk eastward across more of the Florida Panhandle for 1–2+ inch local rates. Mid-South, Tennessee Valley, central Gulf Coast, and Southern Appalachians stay in the more widespread thunderstorm/flash-flood conversation at Marginal intensity.

    Hotspot 1 — Upper Midwest Slight Risk (northeast SD into western and northern MN)

    This is still the primary organized severe corridor. A mid-level shortwave and cold front support a narrow corridor of 60s F dewpoints, moderate destabilization, and 35–45 kt of deep-layer shear. Initial supercells favor large hail, isolated 2+ inches possible. Mode should trend toward clusters and bowing segments this evening as the low-level jet strengthens, shifting the main hazard toward damaging wind. A couple of tornadoes remain in the official language if any cells stay semi-discrete into early evening. The wind threat is expected to wane with eastward extent into western Wisconsin late tonight as the instability corridor stays narrow.

    Cities and counties to watch: Watertown and Aberdeen vicinity in South Dakota; Willmar, St. Cloud, Fergus Falls, Brainerd, Hibbing, Duluth, and the Minnesota Arrowhead. Restoration read: hail first, then wind and trees after dark. Stage roof tarps, generators, and tree crews on the Minnesota side of the Slight Risk before evening clustering. Photograph only in remaining daylight if it is safe.

    Hotspot 2 — Southern Virginia and northern North Carolina (MD 2281)

    Mesoscale Discussion 2281 (valid 1937–2200 UTC) covers parts of southern Virginia and northern North Carolina. A stationary boundary from far northeastern North Carolina into south-central Virginia is the focus. Moderate surface-based buoyancy and steepening low-level lapse rates support loosely organized clusters capable of locally damaging gusts of 55–70 mph and isolated/marginally severe hail up to about 1.25 inches. Watch probability is 20 percent — watch unlikely.

    Offices in the attention line: AKQ, MHX, LWX, RAH, RNK. Restoration read: treat this as scattered wind and tree work, not a regional line. One strong cluster can still drop a tree on a service drop or peel a section of roof. Do not staff it like Watch 665 from Wednesday.

    Hotspot 3 — WPC flood pockets: northern Minnesota and far southern Arizona

    The same shortwave that supports the Upper Midwest Slight Risk also carries a WPC Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over northern Minnesota. Official discussion cites precipitable water in the upper climatological percentile, possible training near the warm front, 1–2 inches (locally up to 3 inches), and rates approaching 1.5 inches per hour Friday afternoon and evening.

    Far southern Arizona, especially the Santa Cruz County corridor, remains the other Slight Risk flood pocket on monsoon moisture with precipitable water above 1.5 inches. HREF guidance earlier today showed moderate-to-high chances of 3-hour QPF exceeding flash-flood guidance there. The Florida Panhandle was added to the broader Marginal flood language on the 16Z update for coastal 1–2+ inch rates.

    Restoration read: northern Minnesota can be a dual ticket — hail/wind plus interior water if cores train. Southern Arizona is a flash-flood and poor-drainage desk. Florida Panhandle is localized urban flooding, not the national headline.

    Just hit

    Thursday evening into early Friday remains the live claim pile. Official September 10 LSRs include 2.25-inch hail near Lake Tanglewood and 2.00-inch hail at Timbercreek Canyon in Randall County, Texas; 1.75-inch and 1.25-inch stones around Lake Tanglewood and Pantex; an 87 mph thunderstorm gust 1 SE of Colby, Thomas County, Kansas; 67 mph near Pantex; 65 mph at Plainview, Hale County, Texas, with snapped power poles, an overturned construction trailer, damaged vehicles, and fences down; plus additional 60–62 mph gusts on the Texas South Plains. Residual high-water work from overnight Flash Flood Warnings in north-central West Virginia and southeastern Ohio is still on yesterday morning’s books.

    No Atlantic tropical cyclone is present. NHC’s 200 PM EDT Friday Tropical Weather Outlook states tropical cyclone formation is not expected in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf of America during the next 7 days. Tropical Storm Norbert, 65 mph as of the late-morning Eastern Pacific package, is moving west well offshore and is not a U.S. land threat.

    Pulse table

    RegionMain threatsSPC / NWS / WPC levelStatus this afternoon
    NE SD / western & northern MNLarge hail (2+” possible), damaging wind, couple tornadoesSPC SlightLate afternoon–tonight
    Southern VA / northern NCLocally damaging gusts 55–70 mph, isolated hailMD 2281, watch unlikelyRemainder of afternoon
    Northern MN / far southern AZFlash-flood rates, training possible in MNWPC SlightAfternoon–evening
    TX Panhandle / Colby KSHail to 2.25″, 60–87 mph gusts, poles/vehiclesSept 10 LSRsJust-hit / recovery
    Central Plains / central KS overnightConditional hail/windSPC Marginal (expanded 20Z)Evening–overnight if storms fire
    Mid-South / TN Valley / CarolinasPulse damaging gusts, heavy rainSPC MarginalScattered
    Atlantic / Gulf vs. U.S. mainlandNo landfalling tropical cycloneNHC: no TC next 7 daysQuiet

    What this means for restoration teams

    The Texas Panhandle and Colby, Kansas, hits are already tickets: hail roofs and vehicles in Randall and Carson counties, wind-driven pole and debris work around Plainview and Colby. Today’s new work, if it verifies, is the Upper Midwest Slight Risk after peak heating — hail swaths first, then tree-and-wire clusters. Northern Minnesota can add interior water on the same shift. Virginia–North Carolina is a local wind desk, not a watch-scale deployment.

    Stage Minnesota tarps and tree crews before dark. Property owners should photograph damage in daylight if it is safe, call the carrier, and start extraction the same night if water is inside. Do not send the same crew to both the Minnesota Slight Risk and last night’s Texas recovery without checking which county actually has a warning now.

    What this is not

    This is not a regional derecho and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. There is no live tornado or severe thunderstorm watch as of this afternoon package. The work tonight, if it comes, will be scattered: a hail swath through a Minnesota or South Dakota county, a wind-downed tree in southern Virginia, a flooded wash in Santa Cruz County, Arizona, or leftover pole work in Hale County, Texas. That is the local-storm pattern this desk should staff.

    Looking ahead

    Saturday’s Day 2 Convective Outlook (1730 UTC, forecaster Jewell) drops to Marginal over parts of the Central Plains and from Ohio and West Virginia into western Pennsylvania. Widely scattered strong-to-severe storms are possible Saturday afternoon and evening over parts of the Central Plains, with isolated activity also possible in the Upper Ohio Valley. Critical fire-weather conditions remain in today’s fire outlook. Watch the next Storm Tracker update rather than assuming the Upper Midwest Slight Risk is the last line of the week.

    Sources and how to verify

    Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Convective Outlook issued 2000 UTC Friday, September 11, 2026; SPC Mesoscale Discussion 2281 issued 1937 UTC; SPC current watches page (no watches valid); SPC Local Storm Reports for 11 September (none in the new 12Z window as of this writing) and 10 September (Texas Panhandle and Colby, Kansas); Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook updated 1601 UTC; National Hurricane Center Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook 200 PM EDT Friday; Eastern Pacific package on Tropical Storm Norbert. Morning desk on the same calendar day: Friday morning Storm Updates.

    Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watches, MDs, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay. NWS warning text feed: national WWA text.

    Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.