Tag: Texas storms

Storm Updates: Central Texas Slight Flood, Kansas Water — Friday, October 2, 2026

This is the Friday afternoon Storm Tracker desk for October 2, 2026. The organized severe window is still closed. The Storm Prediction Center 2000 UTC Day 1 convective outlook, updated 2:54 p.m. CDT by Karstens and Thornton and valid 2000 UTC Friday through 1200 UTC Saturday, carries no severe thunderstorm areas. The 20Z update made no changes to the 1630 UTC package. The summary line is unchanged: severe thunderstorm potential should remain low through tonight.

What is organized this afternoon is water, not wind. The Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, updated 11:56 a.m. EDT and valid 16 UTC Friday through 12 UTC Saturday, keeps a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall for portions of central Texas, focused on the I-35 corridor from the Dallas–Fort Worth metroplex toward San Antonio. Kansas is an aftermath board: river flood warnings and closed roads from Thursday’s rain, not a new convective watch. Restoration exposure is water first — urban runoff, low crossings, and saturated ground in central Texas, plus standing water and minor river flood in Kansas. Isolated gusty storms are possible on the Mid-Atlantic front. They are not a watch. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What is live this afternoon

No convective watches are currently valid. SPC’s watch page, updated 19:12 UTC Friday, lists none. The most recently issued watch is Severe Thunderstorm Watch 676, a Wednesday, September 30 product for west-central Texas. It is not a Friday product. No mesoscale discussions were in effect on the midday SPC board. Today’s preliminary local storm report board, covering 1200 UTC Friday through 1159 UTC Saturday, has received no tornado, hail, or wind reports as of this desk.

SPC’s 1630 UTC discussion, left in place at 20Z, puts an upper trough progressing east across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, with a surface cold front advancing east-southeast over those regions and the Southeast and southern Plains. Twelve-Z soundings ahead of the front from the Mid-Atlantic to the Southeast showed very poor lapse rates aloft, on the order of 4 to 5.5 C/km in the 700–500 mb layer. That limits instability and updraft strength. Locally gusty winds could still occur with low-topped showers and thunderstorms across the Mid-Atlantic where low- and mid-level west-southwesterly flow is modestly enhanced. Organized clusters capable of severe or damaging wind still look unlikely. Weaker flow across the Tennessee Valley and central Gulf Coast states limits organization, but marginally greater instability supports isolated to scattered thunderstorm coverage through the afternoon along and ahead of the front.

The flood overlay is the live product. WPC’s 16Z update trimmed the Slight Risk out of southern Oklahoma, where rates had eased and probabilities of exceeding flash-flood guidance dropped. The higher-end Slight across central and southern Texas stayed on track. A moist environment and low-level convergence near the front have supported slowly propagating, efficient rain from near Dallas toward the Rio Grande. The I-35 corridor from Dallas–Fort Worth to San Antonio remains the focal point. WPC noted a couple of additional inches already down this morning over areas with flash-flood guidance under half an inch per hour, with another 1 to 3 inches possible today. The Marginal Risk was trimmed on the eastern and northern Tennessee and Ohio Valley edges, where rain is mostly stratiform, and expanded east along the I-10 corridor to include the Jacksonville metro, where guidance shows 2 to 3 inches or more in a tropical air mass with daytime heating.

Hotspot 1 — Dallas–Fort Worth to San Antonio, the Slight

This is the afternoon staffing line. WPC’s previous discussion described the southern end of the front across Texas becoming a slow-moving warm front, with very moist southeasterly flow running into it and 2 to 4 inches already down along I-35 yesterday. The return of the front was expected to drop another 1 to 3 inches from San Antonio and Austin up to the Metroplex. Saturated soils and urban drainage are the reason the Slight stayed in place. Instability is limited, so instantaneous rates should not be extreme, but the slow front still allows training.

National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio issued a Flood Advisory at 2:25 p.m. CDT Friday for Comal, Guadalupe, and Hays counties, in effect until 5:30 p.m. CDT, for flooding caused by excessive rainfall. Farther east, a Flood Watch covering portions of south-central and southeast Texas, including coastal and inland Jackson County, remained in effect until 7 p.m. CDT. Over the prior 24 hours much of that watch area had seen 3 to 6 inches, with a swath of 6 to 8 inches or more from southwestern Montgomery County through western Harris County. The watch text allows embedded training rates of 2 to 4 inches per hour in a deep tropical air mass through this evening.

Restoration read: water, not wind. Extraction and content work in Bexar, Hays, Comal, and Guadalupe counties is a continuation of Thursday’s closed crossings plus whatever this afternoon’s advisory adds. Harris and Montgomery are the heavier 24-hour totals if crews are already in Houston. Do not treat a Flood Advisory as a Flash Flood Emergency. Do treat a flooded low crossing as closed. Turn around, don’t drown.

Hotspot 2 — Kansas water, after the emergency

Thursday’s Flash Flood Emergency for Dodge City and central Ford County expired Thursday evening. It is not a live warning this afternoon. What is still on the board is river and areal flood from rain already down. National Weather Service Goodland extended a Flood Warning at 8:18 a.m. MDT Friday for Greeley and Wichita counties in west-central Kansas until 3 p.m. MDT / 4 p.m. CDT. Emergency management reported multiple roads still flooded. Between 3 and 7 inches had fallen. No additional rainfall was expected. Locations named in the product include Leoti, Tribune, Horace, Selkirk, Lydia, and Marienthal.

National Weather Service Topeka, in a 1:33 p.m. CDT Friday flood statement, extended a Flood Warning for the Solomon River near Glasco until Sunday evening. At 12:47 p.m. CDT the stage was 21.8 feet, with minor lowland flooding described along the river from the Cloud and Mitchell county line toward Niles at 22 feet. Separate Topeka products continued minor flooding on the Little Blue River near Barnes, affecting Marshall and Washington counties, and on the Black Vermillion and Big Blue in Marshall County. Kansas City/Pleasant Hill extended minor flooding on the Missouri River, including St. Joseph, Glasgow, Napoleon, Waverly, Leavenworth, Miami, and Boonville, into the weekend. Lowland flooding, not a convective watch, is the language.

Restoration read: Thursday’s Ford, Geary, Riley, McPherson, and Marion water is still a drying clock if it got inside. Friday’s live Kansas product is closed roads in Greeley and Wichita counties through mid-afternoon, and minor river flood into Saturday and Sunday. Photograph only if it is safe. Do not restaff a Flash Flood Emergency that expired Thursday.

Hotspot 3 — Mid-Atlantic gusts below a risk area

The cold front reaches the coastal Northeast and Mid-Atlantic by this evening and otherwise crosses the Tennessee Valley and lower Mississippi Valley. SPC still allows a couple of stronger storms with gusty winds near and ahead of the front in the Mid-Atlantic if there is enough sun, and isolated to scattered thunderstorms along the front into the Tennessee Valley and central Gulf Coast. Poor lapse rates are why the categorical map stays blank. It is not a Slight Risk and it is not a watch.

Restoration read: isolated tree and service-drop work is possible from the Cumberland Plateau into the Delmarva if a cell gusts. Do not stage a regional wind event on a no-risk outlook. Gulf Coast storms this afternoon are a rain check under the expanded Marginal, not a severe board.

Just hit

Today’s 12Z-cycle LSR board is empty: no tornado, hail, or wind reports received. The damage that already looks like a ticket is Thursday’s water, still visible in Friday flood products. Dodge City’s catastrophic flash-flood language expired Thursday. Goodland’s Friday morning warning is roads still closed in Greeley and Wichita counties after 3 to 7 inches. Austin/San Antonio’s Thursday warning for northern Atascosa, Bexar, and western Wilson counties, with emergency management reporting numerous low-water crossings closed in San Antonio and neighboring towns, also expired Thursday evening. Friday afternoon adds the Hays–Comal–Guadalupe advisory and the Harris–Montgomery watch totals of 6 to 8 inches or more in the wettest swath.

National Hurricane Center, 2:00 p.m. MST Friday: Hurricane Rachel was near 19.3°N, 111.1°W, moving west at 5 mph, minimum pressure 963 mb, still affecting Socorro Island and moving slowly westward, south of Baja California. That is not a U.S. landfall. The Atlantic basin has no tropical cyclones on the 2:00 p.m. EDT Friday outlook. Hurricane Nolo, in the Central Pacific near 23.3°N, 167.8°W, was moving west at 6 mph with maximum sustained winds near 75 mph on the 11:00 a.m. HST advisory. None of those is a mainland restoration staffing problem this afternoon.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS / WPC level	Status this afternoon
Dallas–Fort Worth to San Antonio, I-35	Training rain, urban runoff, 1–3 in more possible	WPC Day 1 Slight excessive rainfall	Live flood pulse
Hays, Comal, Guadalupe counties, TX	Excessive rainfall flooding	Flood Advisory until 5:30 p.m. CDT	Live through late afternoon
Harris / Montgomery / Jackson, TX	3–8 in already; training rates possible	Flood Watch until 7 p.m. CDT	Live through early evening
Greeley and Wichita counties, KS	Roads closed; 3–7 in already	Flood Warning until 4 p.m. CDT	Aftermath; no more rain expected
Solomon, Little Blue, Missouri River	Minor lowland river flood	Flood Warnings into the weekend	River, not convective
Mid-Atlantic / Cumberland Plateau	Isolated gusty storms	SPC Day 1: no severe areas	Possible; not organized
CONUS severe watches	None	No watches valid; WW 676 is Wednesday	Quiet
Atlantic / Rachel / Nolo vs. U.S. mainland	No landfalling cyclone	Rachel near Socorro Island; Atlantic empty; Nolo moving west	Quiet on the mainland coast

What this means for restoration teams

A blank Day 1 severe map is not a blank work board. The live call this afternoon is the Texas Slight: I-35 from the Metroplex to San Antonio, the Hays–Comal–Guadalupe advisory, and the Harris–Montgomery watch totals. Water inside a building from Thursday’s Bexar County warning is still a same-cycle extraction and a 24–48 hour mold clock. New water this afternoon starts a new clock only where it actually got in.

For teams in Ford, Geary, Riley, Greeley, or Wichita counties in Kansas: the convective warnings are expired. Work the water that is already in, and treat closed roads in west-central Kansas as still closed through the Goodland warning window. For teams on the Delmarva and the Cumberland Plateau: a couple of gusty storms are possible later today, below watch criteria. Do not staff Houston and Dodge City as the same event.

What this is not

This is not a severe-thunderstorm watch day, not a derecho, and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. SPC Day 2, issued 10:58 p.m. CDT Thursday and valid 12Z Saturday through 12Z Sunday, also has no severe thunderstorm areas. Saturday’s summary: no severe thunderstorms are expected across the U.S. Rachel is an eastern Pacific hurricane near Socorro Island, moving west, not a Gulf or Atlantic landfall. Nolo is a Central Pacific hurricane moving west. The Atlantic basin is empty.

Looking ahead

The next Day 1 convective outlook is scheduled by 0100 UTC. If the Mid-Atlantic front produces a stronger storm, it will show up as a local warning or a special weather statement, not as a categorical risk area on the current package. The Texas Slight runs through 12 UTC Saturday. Kansas river flood warnings already extend into Saturday night and Sunday evening on several points. Saturday’s convective outlook remains a no-severe map. The flood story does not.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook for Friday, October 2, 2026, and the 0600 UTC Day 2 outlook; SPC current watches (none valid as of 19:12 UTC; last issued Watch 676); SPC preliminary storm reports for October 2 (none received); Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook updated 1556 UTC Friday, valid 16 UTC Friday through 12 UTC Saturday; National Weather Service warning text for Austin/San Antonio, Goodland, Topeka, and Kansas City/Pleasant Hill on Friday; National Hurricane Center Hurricane Rachel and Hurricane Nolo advisories and the Atlantic tropical weather outlook.

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watches, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay. Morning desk for this calendar day: Friday, October 2 morning storm updates.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

October 2, 2026

Storm Updates: Kansas Flash Flood Emergency, Texas Water — Thursday, October 1, 2026

This is a live Thursday afternoon snapshot for October 1, 2026. The organized severe window is small. The Storm Prediction Center 2000 UTC Day 1 convective outlook, updated 2:49 p.m. CDT, holds a Marginal Risk only across parts of southern Kansas and northwest Oklahoma — about 16,457 square miles and roughly 121,676 people, with Liberal, Kansas, and Woodward, Oklahoma, named in the risk table. No severe thunderstorm watch number is attached to that outlook. The live ticket is water. The National Weather Service in Dodge City issued a Flash Flood Emergency at 2:32 p.m. CDT for Dodge City and central Ford County, tagged catastrophic damage threat, after 3 to 6 inches of rain with another 3 to 5 inches possible. Restoration exposure this afternoon is interior water, saturated streets, and a short gusty-wind tail on the High Plains — not a hail swath and not a tornado outbreak.

These are county-scale thunderstorms and training rain, not a U.S. landfalling hurricane. Hurricane Rachel is in the eastern Pacific, south of Baja California Sur, with no coastal watches or warnings in effect on the 2 a.m. MST advisory and a track taking the center away from mainland Mexico. The Atlantic basin has no tropical cyclones this afternoon. Conditions change fast. Verify the county warning at weather.gov before a crew rolls.

What is live this afternoon

SPC’s Day 1 update valid from 2000 UTC Thursday through 1200 UTC Friday puts a 5 percent wind probability and a 2 percent tornado probability on that southern Kansas and northwest Oklahoma Marginal. No hail risk area is drawn. Mesoscale Discussion 2345, issued 1:32 p.m. CDT, covers southwestern Kansas into far northwestern Oklahoma and rates watch issuance at 5 percent. The discussion notes several storms undercut by the front produced 40 to 50 knot gusts from Hamilton to Finney counties, and that a brief tornado is most plausible in the warm sector along the Kansas–Oklahoma border — too localized, in SPC’s words, to warrant a watch. Filtered storm reports from 1200 UTC today show no tornado reports and no hail reports. Two wind reports landed near Garden City: 58 mph and 59 mph, 3 miles northwest of Pierceville in Finney County, from the Garden City ASOS at 12:54 p.m. and 1:02 p.m. CDT.

The Weather Prediction Center Day 1 excessive-rainfall point file issued 3:26 p.m. EDT, valid 1927 UTC Thursday through 12 UTC Friday, keeps a Moderate Risk of rainfall exceeding flash-flood guidance on a swath the point string ties through southwest and north Texas — Uvalde, Fort Worth Spinks, McKinney, Paris — and east toward the southern Appalachians near Morristown, Tennessee. A Slight Risk covers a broader corridor from the central Plains, including Hill City and Manhattan, Kansas, Falls City, Nebraska, and Lamoni and Iowa City, Iowa, into the Midwest fringe. A separate Marginal pocket sits over South Florida. The overnight Moderate discussion that was valid only through 12 UTC Thursday has expired; the afternoon product is the one above, and the warnings below are what is actually in effect.

Hotspot 1 — Dodge City and southwest to central Kansas

This is the live emergency. NWS Dodge City’s 2:32 p.m. CDT Flash Flood Warning for central Ford County runs until 5:30 p.m. CDT and includes the Flash Flood Emergency language for Dodge City, Ford, Fort Dodge, and Wright. Source is emergency management. Damage threat is catastrophic. A separate Dodge City warning covers southwestern Gray, southern Haskell, northwestern Meade, and northeastern Seward counties until 6:00 p.m. CDT, including Sublette and Copeland, after 1 to 3 inches with another half inch to an inch possible. Farther east, NWS Wichita has a Flash Flood Warning until 8:00 p.m. CDT for northeastern McPherson and northwestern Marion counties, including Canton, Lehigh, and Roxbury, with up to 3 inches already down and another 3 inches possible; damage threat considerable. NWS Topeka has a warning until 7:00 p.m. CDT for Geary and northwestern Morris counties after 3 to 5 inches, including Junction City and Grandview Plaza and Interstate 70 between mile markers 291 and 302 and 310 and 315. An earlier Topeka statement kept flooding in play for Manhattan, Wamego, and the Milford and Tuttle Creek lake areas.

Restoration read: this is a water ticket already open, not a forecast. Extraction, contents, and a mold clock start where water entered finished space. Do not route a crew across a closed low-water crossing to reach the loss. Wind is secondary here — the Garden City gusts are a roof-and-tree check, not the headline.

Hotspot 2 — San Antonio metro and northeast Texas

NWS Austin/San Antonio kept a Flash Flood Warning in effect until 7:00 p.m. CDT for northern Atascosa, Bexar, and western Wilson counties. At 3:23 p.m. CDT, emergency management reported flash flooding with numerous low-water crossings closed. Leon and Olmos creeks had responded. One to 4 inches had fallen, with up to another inch possible. Damage threat is considerable. Locations in the warning text include San Antonio, Schertz, Converse, Universal City, Live Oak, Pleasanton, Floresville, Helotes, and Randolph AFB. NWS Shreveport issued a Flash Flood Warning at 3:23 p.m. CDT until 6:30 p.m. CDT for northwestern Cherokee and central Smith counties, including Tyler, Jacksonville, Whitehouse, and Lindale, with 1 to 2 inches down and rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour expected.

SPC’s 2000 UTC update also notes convective coverage increasing over south-central and south Texas in hot, humid air. A localized strong gust is possible with the strongest downdrafts. Poor mid-level lapse rates and weakening shear keep that below a broader severe risk. Restoration read: San Antonio is observed water and closed crossings. Tyler is a radar-indicated flood warning with a short fuse. Treat both as urban-drainage and creek jobs, not as a severe-wind corridor.

Hotspot 3 — Southern Kansas and northwest Oklahoma Marginal

The only categorical severe area on the afternoon Day 1 outlook is the trimmed Marginal from southern Kansas into northwest Oklahoma, centered on Liberal and Woodward. The 11:28 a.m. CDT discussion, still carried as the previous discussion on the 2000 UTC product, describes a weak surface low over northwest Oklahoma and the northeast Texas Panhandle, a front northeast across Kansas, and a Pacific cold front south across the southern Plains. Cool temperatures aloft, around minus 10 to minus 11 C at 500 mb, can support small hail, strong to locally severe winds, and perhaps a brief tornado until the cold front undercuts the storms by late afternoon or early evening. SPC trimmed the northwestern edge of the Marginal where severe probabilities dropped behind ongoing convection.

A low-probability isolated storm is also noted along the surface front in northeastern Missouri and western Illinois later this afternoon or evening. Poor lapse rates and limited buoyancy keep severity muted if anything develops. Restoration read: stage a small wind-and-tree check for Liberal, Woodward, and the Kansas–Oklahoma border counties. Do not staff it like a watch.

Just hit

The overnight story is already a ticket, not a new outlook. The 0100 UTC Day 1 outlook from Wednesday evening had carried a Slight Risk from Texas into southwest Oklahoma and over north-central Kansas, with a tornado window noted for the next hour or two mainly in north-central and northeast Kansas. Today’s 12Z-onward SPC filtered page does not list a tornado or hail report. What verified into this afternoon is rain: Dodge City’s 3 to 6 inches, Junction City’s 3 to 5 inches, and San Antonio’s closed crossings. The morning Storm Tracker desk is the prior URL for that overnight close-out.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS level	Status this afternoon
Dodge City / Ford County, KS	Life-threatening flash flood, 3–6 in already	Flash Flood Emergency, catastrophic	Live until 5:30 p.m. CDT
Junction City, Manhattan, McPherson–Marion, KS	Flash flood, training rain, I-70	Flash Flood Warnings	Live into evening
San Antonio / Bexar, Atascosa, Wilson	Observed flooding, closed crossings	Flash Flood Warning, considerable	Live until 7 p.m. CDT
Tyler / Smith and Cherokee counties, TX	Heavy rain, urban drainage	Flash Flood Warning	Live until 6:30 p.m. CDT
Southern KS / northwest OK	Gusty wind, brief tornado possible	SPC Marginal; MD 2345, watch unlikely	No watch number
Atlantic / U.S. mainland tropics	No landfalling cyclone	NHC: no Atlantic cyclones	Quiet on the U.S. coast

What this means for restoration teams

Ford County is the priority desk. A catastrophic Flash Flood Emergency means finished-floor water, contents, and electrical in low structures are already in play where the water reached them. Photograph only from safe ground. The San Antonio warning is the second water desk: crossings are closed, so access is the constraint, not the estimate. Tyler is a shorter fuse on the same rain axis. The Marginal in Liberal and Woodward is a gust check — the only filtered wind reports so far are the 58 and 59 mph Garden City readings. A 60 mph peak is the most probable gust in MD 2345’s language, which is roof edge, fascia, and tree-on-structure work if it verifies, not a regional tarp campaign.

Do not send the same crew from Dodge City to San Antonio. They are separate warning offices and separate hydrology. Kansas water is High Plains urban and small-stream flooding under a slow upper low. San Antonio water is creek response in Bexar County with emergency-management confirmation.

What this is not

This is not a derecho, not a tornado outbreak, and not a U.S. hurricane landfall. SPC drew no hail risk area on the 2000 UTC outlook. No severe thunderstorm watch is in effect on that product. Rachel is a Pacific hurricane south of Baja with no U.S. coastal warning. Tropical Storm Nolo is in the central Pacific and is not a mainland landfall. The work this afternoon, where it is already reported, is floodwater in Ford County, Geary County, the San Antonio metro, and Smith County.

Looking ahead

SPC’s Day 2 convective outlook, issued 11:54 a.m. CDT and valid Friday into Friday night, forecasts no severe thunderstorm areas. A cold front is expected to reach the southern Mid-Atlantic, the Tennessee Valley, and the Texas coast by 12 UTC Saturday, with a broken band of showers and storms along it and limited destabilization where morning rain lingers. The flood story can outlast the severe story. Friday’s desk is leftover high water in Kansas and Texas, not a new Slight Risk.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources, all dated Thursday, October 1, 2026: NOAA Storm Prediction Center 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook (updated 2:49 p.m. CDT) and Mesoscale Discussion 2345 (1:32 p.m. CDT); SPC today’s storm reports page (1200 UTC window); Weather Prediction Center Day 1 excessive-rainfall point file issued 3:26 p.m. EDT; National Weather Service warning text for Dodge City, Wichita, Topeka, Austin/San Antonio, and Shreveport; National Hurricane Center active-cyclone listing and Hurricane Rachel Advisory 17. Morning desk: Storm Updates, October 1, 2026 (Morning).

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook and local storm reports, and the WPC excessive rainfall outlook for the flood overlay.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

October 1, 2026

Storm Updates: Kansas Tornado Window, West Texas Wind Slight — Wednesday, September 30, 2026

Wednesday afternoon desk. The organized severe work is on the Plains, not the coasts. As of Wednesday, September 30, 2026, the Storm Prediction Center 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook still holds a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms across portions of the southern and central Plains. No convective watches are currently valid. Two mesoscale discussions are live with watches possible. The Weather Prediction Center still holds Moderate Risks of excessive rainfall across portions of the central and southern Plains and the Corn Belt.

These are county- and ZIP-scale thunderstorms and flash-flood corridors. No named tropical cyclone is threatening U.S. land this afternoon. Restoration exposure is wind-driven roof and tree work from southwest Oklahoma into west Texas tonight, a conditional brief-tornado window on the Kansas warm front this evening, and interior water where cells train on already-wet ground from the Red River Valley toward Omaha and Des Moines. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What is live this afternoon

SPC’s 1630 UTC outlook (issued 11:26 a.m. CDT, valid 1630 UTC Wednesday through 1200 UTC Thursday) keeps two Slight Risk areas: central and eastern Kansas into far southeast Nebraska, and southwest Oklahoma / northwest Texas through the Edwards Plateau. Combined Slight coverage is about 83,861 square miles and 1.63 million people, with Topeka, Abilene, Wichita Falls, Lawton, and San Angelo on the population list. A broader Marginal wraps San Antonio, Dallas, Austin, Fort Worth, and Oklahoma City. Forecasters Mosier and Chalmers: a few tornadoes and localized wind damage are possible across Kansas and possibly far southeast Nebraska this afternoon and evening. Severe wind gusts, some hail, and a brief tornado are also expected from west Texas into southwest Oklahoma this afternoon into tonight.

No Storm Prediction Center convective watches are currently valid. The watch page, updated 2000 UTC Wednesday, still lists Watch 674 as the most recently issued product. That watch is not in effect this afternoon. Two mesoscale discussions are the live signal instead.

Mesoscale Discussion 2337, issued 2:21 p.m. CDT for portions of central Kansas into extreme northern Oklahoma, is tagged Severe potential… Watch possible, with a 60 percent probability of watch issuance. SPC says a few of the stronger storms may produce brief tornadoes, and that a Tornado Watch will likely be needed at some point in the next few hours. Timing is the open question because storm evolution is expected to be slow.

Mesoscale Discussion 2338, issued 2:56 p.m. CDT for portions of western Texas, is tagged Severe potential… Watch possible, with a 40 percent probability of watch issuance. SPC expects at least a few severe gusts and a couple instances of hail if storms increase in coverage and intensity. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch may be needed. Peak wind in that discussion is 55–70 mph. Peak hail is up to 1.25 inches.

WPC’s Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 0800 UTC Wednesday, valid 12Z Wednesday–12Z Thursday) keeps Moderate Risk language on two corridors: the Front Range into the southern Plains, and the central Plains into the Corn Belt. HREF neighborhood probabilities for more than 3 inches remain 60–90 percent from the Lower Trans Pecos to the central Red River Valley. The Corn Belt footprint is still 2–4 inches, locally around 6 inches, from northern Kansas toward Omaha and Des Moines generally south of I-80.

Hotspot 1 — Central and eastern Kansas into far southeast Nebraska

This is the tornado-window corridor. SPC places the peak around 21Z to 00Z (4 p.m. to 7 p.m. CDT). Cloud cover is expected to linger, so most destabilization is from low-level moisture advection, not full heating. Low-70s dewpoints are forecast over much of central and eastern Kansas by late afternoon. RAP guidance in the 1630 UTC package shows 0–1 km storm-relative helicity of 150–200 m²/s². MD 2337 adds 200–300 m²/s² of 0–3 km SRH along the warm front and the Oklahoma–Kansas border, with backed surface flow. Tornadoes in this kind of tropical, poor-lapse-rate airmass are typically brief. SPC still treats a few longer-duration updrafts as possible.

Cities and counties to watch: Topeka under the Slight list; Wichita under the Marginal wrap; I-70 and Kansas River counties; the state-line counties toward Omaha. Today’s first LSR on the 12Z-to-12Z board is a storm-chaser video report 3 miles south-southwest of Ash Valley in Pawnee County, Kansas, at 2049 UTC (3:49 p.m. CDT). That is a live-cell report, not a damage survey.

Restoration read: tornado plus training rain. A brief tornado is a narrow swath — staff it as a local damage survey. The same warm front is a water job if cells repeat. Do not send one crew to a wind ticket and a flooded basement without checking which county has a warning now.

Hotspot 2 — Southwest Oklahoma, northwest Texas, Edwards Plateau

This remains the higher-confidence wind corridor. Low-70s dewpoints cover much of the southern Plains warm sector. Primary development is expected this evening along modest surface troughing south of the surface low moving into Kansas. An initially supercellular mode is possible from southwest Oklahoma into northwest Texas and the Edwards Plateau, where MLCAPE can reach near or above 1,500 J/kg. Front-parallel flow then favors a linear mode. Severe gusts are the most likely hazard. Isolated hail is more plausible across southwest Texas. A localized brief tornado threat can increase in the evening as effective storm-relative helicity rises.

MD 2338 is the afternoon trigger for western Texas. Surface temperatures there have reached the upper 80s to 90 F. Storms should start multicellular, then become linear as they overspread a dry boundary layer. Cities and counties: Lawton, Wichita Falls, Abilene, San Angelo, the Edwards Plateau counties under the Slight contour, and Midland on the Marginal fringe. An isolated severe threat could linger into parts of central Texas and Oklahoma overnight before buoyancy collapses east of the front.

Restoration read: wind first, water second. Stage tarps, generators, and tree crews before evening initiation, not after the first warning. If a line trains on already-wet ground, treat the same ZIP as a water job by morning.

Hotspot 3 — Southern Rockies, Front Range, and the Corn Belt flood overlay

WPC keeps a Moderate flood risk from the Sangre de Cristos and San Juan Range into the Front Range as northeasterly upslope persists on the northwest side of the surface low. Antecedent wet soils raise the flash-flood probability. Additional 2–4 inches, locally higher, remains the working range, with a second heavy period this evening as the surface low intensifies.

Farther northeast, the Corn Belt Moderate still sits on a southwest-to-northeast axis from northern Kansas through Omaha into Des Moines, generally south of I-80. Hourly rates of 1–2 inches in the better cores, with repeating action on the warm front. North of the warm front the rates drop. That is urban streets, low-water crossings, and small streams first — then finished basements if the same cell trains twice.

Just hit

Today’s 12Z-to-12Z LSR board had been empty until the Pawnee County, Kansas chaser report at 2049 UTC. That is the only official today-board entry as of this desk. Last night’s tickets still stand: a social-media tornado 3 miles south-southeast of Claude in Armstrong County, Texas, at 0012 UTC Tuesday evening; a tornado 7 miles west-northwest of Timbercreek Canyon in Randall County, Texas, at 0245 UTC; 67 mph at Roswell Air Center in Chaves County, New Mexico; 60 mph 2 miles northeast of Roswell; and 65 mph 6 miles west-northwest of Denver City in Yoakum County, Texas. Those are preliminary reports, not damage surveys.

No named tropical cyclone threatens U.S. land this afternoon. NHC is issuing advisories on Hurricane Rachel well south-southwest of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico, Tropical Storm Nolo several hundred miles west of Lihue, Hawaii, and Tropical Depression Nineteen-E over the western East Pacific. Hanna is a remnant low in the central subtropical Atlantic. None of those are a CONUS restoration staffing problem today.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS / WPC level	Status this afternoon
Central/eastern KS into SE NE	Brief tornadoes, localized wind, training rain	SPC Slight + MD 2337 (watch possible, 60%)	Peak 4–7 p.m. CDT; no watch yet
SW OK / NW TX / Edwards Plateau	Severe wind, isolated hail, brief tornado	SPC Slight + MD 2338 west TX (watch possible, 40%)	Evening initiation
Red River Valley / west-central TX	Flash flood, merging clusters	WPC Moderate	Late afternoon into Thursday morning
KS–Omaha–Des Moines (south of I-80)	Flash flood, 1–2 in/hr cores	WPC Moderate	Afternoon through overnight
Southern Rockies / Front Range	Upslope heavy rain, flash flood	WPC Moderate	Evening pulse still live
Pawnee County, KS	Live-cell chaser report	Today’s LSR board	2049 UTC / 3:49 p.m. CDT
TX Panhandle / Chaves County NM	Tornado and wind LSRs from Tuesday night	Yesterday’s Marginal	Just-hit / survey
Atlantic / East Pacific vs. U.S. mainland	No landfalling hurricane	Rachel / Nolo / Hanna offshore	Quiet on the mainland coast

What this means for restoration teams

A Slight Risk is not a watch and not a warning. MD 2337 and MD 2338 are the afternoon products that say a watch may still come. Wind at severe criteria is roof, siding, gutter, and tree-on-structure work. A brief tornado, if one occurs in Kansas or on the Edwards Plateau, is a narrow swath. Heavy rain on the two Moderate flood corridors is extraction the same night and a mold clock by Friday.

For teams in central Kansas, southwest Oklahoma, and northwest Texas: stage before the 21Z–00Z window, not after the first warning. Property owners should photograph damage in remaining daylight only if it is safe, call the carrier, and start extraction the same night if water is inside. Turn around, don’t drown on the Front Range and Corn Belt crossings.

What this is not

This is not a regional derecho and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. Rachel is off western Mexico. Nolo is west of Kauai. Hanna is a remnant low in the central Atlantic. The work today, if it verifies, will be scattered: a wind swath through a Texas or Oklahoma county, a brief tornado on the Kansas warm front, a flooded intersection where cells train on the Red River or south of I-80. That is the local-storm pattern this desk should staff.

Looking ahead

The next Day 1 outlook is scheduled by 2000 UTC. SPC Day 2 (1730 UTC package, valid 12Z Thursday–12Z Friday) drops to a Marginal over portions of Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas for isolated severe wind Thursday afternoon and evening. Watches, if they come tonight, will most likely fire on the Kansas warm front first, then western Texas if coverage increases. Watch the next Storm Tracker update rather than assuming this afternoon’s empty watch list is the last line of the day.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center Sep 30, 2026 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook; SPC Mesoscale Discussions 2337 and 2338; SPC current convective watches page (no watches valid as of 2000 UTC Wednesday); SPC local storm reports for 20260930 (Pawnee County, Kansas) and 20260929 (overnight Panhandle and New Mexico); Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook updated 0800 UTC Wednesday; National Hurricane Center public pages for Rachel, Nolo, Hanna, and Nineteen-E. Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watch, MD, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay.

Morning desk: Storm Updates: Southern Plains Slight Risk, Kansas Tornado Window — Wednesday, September 30, 2026 (Morning).

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

September 30, 2026

Storm Updates: Southwest Flood Moderate, New Mexico–West Texas Marginal — Tuesday, September 29, 2026

Tuesday afternoon desk. Water still owns the Southwest. A Marginal severe corridor is open from southeast Arizona across southern and eastern New Mexico into west Texas. Not an NWS warning. This is a live Tuesday afternoon snapshot of U.S. local-storm activity as of Tuesday, September 29, 2026. The Storm Prediction Center 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook, issued 2:45 PM CDT, holds a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms from southern Arizona across southern and eastern New Mexico into west Texas. Isolated severe gusts and possibly a tornado or two remain the official language for this afternoon into tonight. No Severe Thunderstorm Watch or Tornado Watch is valid. Mesoscale Discussion 2333, issued 3:06 PM CDT for south-central into southeastern New Mexico, flags a sparse isolated gust or brief tornado and says a watch is unlikely.

The Weather Prediction Center still carries a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall on portions of the Southwest and Four Corners after a late-Monday special Day 1 update trimmed the outline over western and northern Arizona into southern Utah. Restoration exposure this afternoon is interior water on already-saturated soils, wash and burn-scar flooding, trees and service drops on isolated severe gusts, and a narrow tornado swath if a cell organizes over southeastern New Mexico or west Texas. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What is live this afternoon

No convective watches are in effect as of the SPC watch page update at 21:04 UTC on Tuesday, September 29, 2026. The last issued watch number on that page is 0674 and it is not valid now. Today’s official Local Storm Report board covering 12Z Tuesday through 12Z Wednesday shows no tornado, hail, or wind reports as of this desk.

The 20Z update left severe probabilities unchanged. SPC expects thunderstorm coverage to increase this afternoon and evening as the remnant core of Polo moves northeast into the southern High Plains, likely in a complex or linear mode. Locally greater potential sits over southeastern New Mexico into West Texas, where less cloud cover allowed stronger heating through mid-afternoon. Population centers inside the Day 1 Marginal include El Paso, Tucson, Lubbock, Amarillo, and Midland.

National Hurricane Center Tropical Storm Polo Advisory 37, 2:00 PM MST Tuesday, September 29, 2026: the center was near 29.0°N, 109.7°W, about 275 miles southwest of El Paso, moving northeast at 21 mph with 65 mph maximum sustained winds and 992 mb pressure. Coastal watches and warnings for Mexico have been discontinued. Interests in northwestern Mexico, southern New Mexico, and far western Texas should keep watching the remnant. Polo is not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. NHC notes a Wind Advisory is in effect for portions of southern New Mexico and far western Texas for gusty remnant winds late today and tonight.

Hotspot 1 — Four Corners / Southwest flood pulse

This is still the water desk. WPC language supports a Moderate Risk of 1-to-6-hour rainfall exceeding flash-flood guidance over parts of the Southwest. The late-Monday 2200 UTC special update cut back Moderate coverage over western and northern Arizona into southern Utah after convection there stayed more scattered and instability stayed limited. Intense rates were then focused along a compact warm-conveyor axis over far southeastern California, the Arizona–Nevada border, and southwest Utah, plus a smaller pocket over southeast Arizona and southwest New Mexico downstream of Polo. Outside those pockets much of the rain over Arizona and New Mexico had been stratiform. Wet soils, burn scars, slot canyons, and south- and west-facing slopes along the Mogollon Rim and the San Juans still favor flooding even if the Moderate category is on the low end of that contour.

Cities and counties to watch: Kingman, Bullhead City, Laughlin, Colorado City, Hildale, Flagstaff and Mogollon Rim drainages, Lordsburg country and the Sacramento Mountains in New Mexico, and flashy drainages in southern Utah. Overnight Flash Flood Warnings on that corridor — Hildale and Short Creek, Colorado City and northern Mohave, the Laughlin–Kingman–Bullhead line, and pieces of San Bernardino and Clark counties — are yesterday-into-this-morning water, not a new afternoon watch.

Restoration read: extraction and drying first. Treat burn-scar and wash flooding as a same-night water job if rain is still falling on the same ZIP. Photograph only if it is safe. Do not drive flooded washes.

Hotspot 2 — Southeastern New Mexico into West Texas

This is the afternoon severe window inside the SPC Marginal. MD 2333 covers south-central into southeastern New Mexico, valid 2006–2130 UTC Tuesday. A small QLCS segment was intensifying on KHDX and MRMS as it approached a destabilizing airmass with surface temperatures in the 70s F, dewpoints in the 60s F, and more than 500 J/kg MLCAPE. Effective bulk shear over 40 kt, much of it in the lowest 3 km, leaves room for embedded mesovortices. Official MD language: an isolated severe gust or a brief tornado is possible through the remainder of the afternoon; the threat should stay sparse; watch issuance probability 5 percent. Most probable peak gust in that discussion is up to 60 mph; most probable peak tornado intensity is listed as up to 90 mph if one occurs.

Farther east, west Texas is the part of the Marginal that had more heating. Storm mode should trend complex or linear as Polo’s remnant and the low-level jet interact after 00Z. A brief tornado and strong gusts can ride any organized, persistent structure. That is still isolated, not a Slight Risk.

Restoration read: wind and water on the same ticket. Stage tarps and extractors for the South Plains and Permian Basin before late afternoon. A brief tornado, if one occurs, is a narrow swath — staff it as a local damage survey, not a regional event.

Hotspot 3 — Southeast Arizona and the Tucson–Phoenix moisture axis

Southern Arizona stays inside the same Day 1 Marginal. Mid-to-upper-60s dewpoints were analyzed from the international border into the Phoenix vicinity this morning, with long hodographs and 30 to 40 kt of low- and mid-level southwesterly flow. Widespread showers and thunderstorms continue under limited heating and weak tropical lapse rates. Weak or transient supercells and later convective bands can still produce strong gusts. This is not the higher-end part of the corridor compared with southeastern New Mexico and West Texas this afternoon, but Tucson sits inside the official risk area.

Restoration read: water first, wind second. Urban street flooding and isolated tree damage are the likely tickets, not a metro-wide wind event.

Just hit

Today’s 12Z-cycle LSR board is empty. The last 24 hours that already look like tickets sit on Monday’s 12Z-to-12Z page: 77 mph near Kenel and 71 mph near Pollock in Campbell County, South Dakota; 1.00-inch hail and a 60 mph gust 10 miles north of Belle Fourche in Butte County, South Dakota; power lines down near New Kingman-Butler in Mohave County, Arizona. Overnight Flash Flood Warnings on the Arizona–Utah–Nevada border country and a separate Fargo–Moorhead warning with up to two inches already down are water aftermath, not this afternoon’s new severe reports.

Tropical Storm Rachel remains offshore of southwestern Mexico and is not a U.S. land threat this afternoon. Hurricane Nolo is a Central Pacific / Hawaii desk. Neither is this Storm Tracker’s mainland corridor.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS / WPC level	Status this afternoon
Four Corners / SW AZ–UT–NM	Flash flood, burn-scar and wash flooding	WPC Moderate excessive rainfall	Live flood pulse; Moderate trimmed on the northwest edge
SE New Mexico / West Texas	Isolated severe gust, brief tornado possible, heavy rain	SPC Marginal + MD 2333	Afternoon–tonight window; watch unlikely
Southeast Arizona / Tucson corridor	Strong gusts, heavy rain	SPC Marginal	Ongoing showers; limited heating
Eastern Dakotas / NW Minnesota	Training heavy rain	WPC Slight / Marginal ERO (prior discussion)	Fargo–Moorhead just-hit water
Western/central Dakotas (Monday)	Severe gusts, small hail	Expired Marginal + LSRs	Aftermath
U.S. mainland coast vs. tropics	No landfalling hurricane	Polo a TS inland over Sonora	Quiet on the mainland coast

What this means for restoration teams

The Southwest Moderate Risk is wet drywall, silt near washes, and a 24–48 hour mold clock on buildings that took water overnight. Southeastern New Mexico and west Texas are a wind-first desk if the QLCS or a discrete cell organizes, with water on the same ZIPs if cells train. Monday night’s Campbell County gusts are already a roof-and-siding ticket. Mohave County lines-down is already a tree-and-drop ticket.

For teams near the SPC Marginal: stage before late afternoon local, not after the first warning. Property owners should photograph damage in daylight if it is safe, call the carrier, and start extraction the same night if water is inside. Turn around, don’t drown remains the flood rule on every wash in the Moderate Risk.

What this is not

This is not a regional derecho and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. Polo is a Mexico inland tropical storm whose remnant moisture and shear are already inside the Southwest and southern High Plains forecast. MD 2333 is explicit that the New Mexico severe threat should stay sparse and that a watch is unlikely. The work today, if it comes, will be scattered: a flooded wash in Mohave or Washington County, a wind swath through a southeastern New Mexico or west Texas county, leftover urban water in Fargo. That is the local-storm pattern this desk should staff.

Looking ahead

Wednesday’s SPC Day 2 Convective Outlook already draws a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of the southern Plains, with damaging wind, hail, and perhaps a tornado or two from west-central Texas into southwest Oklahoma as an upper low and dryline organize. Isolated severe gusts and hail may also occur from western and central Kansas into far southern Nebraska. Thursday stays Marginal over parts of the southern Plains. Watch the next Storm Tracker update rather than assuming today’s Marginal is the last line of the week.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources dated Tuesday, September 29, 2026: NOAA Storm Prediction Center 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook (Chalmers/Thornton; prior Guyer/Bentley discussion); Mesoscale Discussion 2333 (Squitieri/Mosier); SPC current watches page (no watches valid; last issued 0674); SPC today and 28 September preliminary local storm reports; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (Hurley/Wegman 2200 UTC update and prior Campbell/Pereira discussion); National Hurricane Center Tropical Storm Polo Advisory 37, 2:00 PM MST; National Weather Service warning text via the national watches/warnings feed.

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watch, MD, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay. Morning desk for this calendar day: Storm Updates: Southwest Flood Moderate, West Texas Marginal — Tuesday, September 29, 2026 (Morning).

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

September 29, 2026

Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse, Northeast Flood Slight — Sunday, September 27, 2026

This is a live Sunday afternoon snapshot of U.S. local-storm activity as of Sunday, September 27, 2026. The organized severe desk is quiet. The Storm Prediction Center 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook states no severe thunderstorm areas are forecast and organized severe storms are not expected through early Monday. No convective watches are valid. Restoration exposure this afternoon is leftover nor’easter wind and water on the coastal Northeast, isolated gusty outflow from north Texas cells, and urban ponding where WPC keeps a Slight excessive-rainfall risk from New Jersey through southern New England.

These are county-scale thunderstorms and a fading coastal cyclone, not a mainland hurricane landfall. Conditions change. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What is live this afternoon

SPC issued the 2000 UTC (2:57 p.m. CDT) Day 1 outlook with the categorical line removed. The morning Marginal over western Nebraska and the Black Hills was taken off earlier; this cycle made no further change. Isolated convection was ongoing across portions of central and north Texas near 1945 UTC. SPC notes an isolated strong or damaging gust cannot be ruled out given steep low-level lapse rates and moderate buoyancy, but weak lower-tropospheric flow, limited effective shear, and poor mid-level lapse rates keep the severe probability under 5 percent.

A few additional thunderstorms remain possible late this afternoon and evening along a diffuse surface boundary from north Texas into southern Oklahoma. An occluded cyclone continues to weaken near the northern Mid-Atlantic coast, with elevated convection and isolated lightning possible to its northeast across southeast New England. Elevated storms over central South Dakota this morning were described as already past peak.

Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (valid 12 UTC Sunday through 12 UTC Monday) holds a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall for parts of the coastal Northeast — New Jersey, southern New York, and southern to central New England. Additional rainfall of 1 to 3 inches, locally heavier, is the language over the NYC metro into eastern Massachusetts. A Marginal Risk covers parts of Upstate New York and central New England, plus a separate Marginal from the Texas Hill Country into south-central Oklahoma. Isolated low-end flood potential is noted over portions of northern Arizona as moisture associated with Hurricane Polo begins to lift north of the Mexican coast.

High Wind Warnings that covered Eastern Monmouth and Coastal Ocean Counties in New Jersey and Long Island and adjacent Connecticut zones were in effect until noon EDT Sunday. Those products have expired. Tree-and-wire work from the overnight gusts is a just-hit desk, not a live warning desk.

Hotspot 1 — Coastal Northeast flood slight, wind fade

The live organized threat here is water, not a new severe watch. The slow-moving nor’easter lingering near northern New Jersey and eastern Long Island is still funneling moisture across southern New England. Instability is low, so instantaneous rates are not the main story. Saturated soils from coastal inundation and prior heavy rain keep urban streets, poor drainage, and small streams in play.

Cities and counties to watch: New York City and Long Island; Eastern Monmouth and Coastal Ocean Counties, New Jersey; New London and Middlesex Counties, Connecticut; eastern Massachusetts including the Boston metro. Restoration read: extraction and drying from last night’s wind-driven rain, plus ponding calls if the Slight Risk verifies. Photograph roofs in remaining daylight only if it is safe. Do not treat this as a new High Wind Warning — those expired at noon EDT.

Hotspot 2 — North Texas into southern Oklahoma scatter

This is the only convective corridor SPC is still talking about on the afternoon update. Isolated cells were already up over central and north Texas mid-afternoon. The same diffuse boundary can support a few more storms into southern Oklahoma this evening. Gusty outflow is the listed hazard. Hail and tornado probabilities are not highlighted.

Cities and counties to watch: the Dallas–Fort Worth periphery, Waco and Temple corridors, Wichita Falls, and counties along the Red River into southern Oklahoma. WPC’s Marginal excessive-rainfall pocket from the Texas Hill Country into south-central Oklahoma is the flood overlay on the same air mass. Restoration read: isolated wind and brief heavy rain. Staff local Severe Thunderstorm Warnings if they fire; do not staff a regional outbreak that SPC has already declined to draw.

Hotspot 3 — High Plains leftover and northern Arizona moisture

The morning Marginal for large hail over western Nebraska and the Black Hills is gone. SPC says the central South Dakota convection has already peaked and that any overnight elevated storms from western South Dakota into North Dakota carry only a low isolated-hail threat. NWS Aberdeen did issue a Severe Thunderstorm Warning this morning for parts of Stanley, Sully, and Dewey Counties, South Dakota — 60 mph gusts and quarter-size hail, radar indicated, until 10:00 a.m. CDT. That product is expired.

Northern Arizona is a low-end flood mention only, as flow turns southwest ahead of a trough digging into California and begins to draw moisture associated with Hurricane Polo. Polo itself is a Baja California Sur hurricane, not a U.S. mainland landfall. Restoration read: check whether any local flash-flood warning is actually live before rolling a crew. The outlook language is not a warning.

Just hit

SPC today’s storm-report page for the 1200 UTC Sunday through 1159 UTC Monday window showed no tornado, hail, or wind LSRs as of this afternoon scan. The morning desk already logged overnight Comanche County, Oklahoma wind and quarter hail from Saturday night. Mid-Atlantic High Wind Warnings that ran through noon EDT Sunday are the other just-hit pile: trees, service drops, and coastal water intrusion on the Jersey Shore, Long Island, and southern New England.

That is ticket work already on the books, not a new watch. Hurricane Nolo remains south of the Hawaiian Islands and is not a CONUS landfall. Hurricane Polo is a Mexico / Baja desk. Tropical Depression Fay is well west-southwest of the Azores. None of those systems is a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall this afternoon.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS level	Status this afternoon
Coastal Northeast (NJ / NYC / southern New England)	Urban flood, leftover wind damage	WPC Slight excessive rainfall; High Wind Warnings expired noon EDT	Live flood slight / wind fade
North Texas / southern Oklahoma	Isolated gusty outflow, brief heavy rain	SPC no severe area; WPC Marginal flood (Hill Country–south-central OK)	Scattered cells
Western NE / Black Hills / central SD	Isolated hail earlier; now quiet	Morning MRGL removed; SVR warning expired 10 a.m. CDT	Quiet
Northern Arizona	Isolated heavy rain	WPC low-end mention	Quiet / watch local products
CONUS Atlantic / Gulf coast	No landfalling hurricane	NHC systems offshore (Fay, Polo, Nolo)	Quiet on the mainland

What this means for restoration teams

Sunday afternoon is a close-out and water day, not a chase day. Northeast shops should finish tree-and-roof tickets from the expired High Wind Warnings and stay ready for urban water calls if the Slight Risk trains on already-wet ground. North Texas and southern Oklahoma shops watch local warnings only. High Plains shops can stand down the morning hail Marginal.

Wind that already happened is siding, gutter, and tree-on-structure work. New water on a Slight Risk is wet drywall and a 24–48 hour mold clock. Photograph in daylight if it is safe, call the carrier, and start extraction the same night if water is inside.

What this is not

This is not a regional derecho and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. SPC has no severe thunderstorm area and no watch. Polo is Baja. Nolo is south of Hawaii. Fay is mid-Atlantic open water. Do not invent a named-CAT desk on the CONUS from those tracks.

Looking ahead

SPC Day 2 (Monday) also has no severe thunderstorm areas forecast. Severe thunderstorm probability remains low. WPC discussion language for Monday raises a Moderate excessive-rainfall risk over parts of the Southwest, Great Basin, and central and southern Rockies as Polo moisture is drawn inland — that is tomorrow’s flood overlay, not today’s. Watch the next Storm Tracker update rather than assuming Sunday’s quiet line holds after 12 UTC Monday.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center Sep 27, 2026 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook (Chalmers/Guyer); SPC current watches page updated 1705 UTC Sunday (no watches valid); SPC today’s storm reports (20260927 1200–1159 UTC window); Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook updated 0812 UTC Sunday; NWS warning text including expired High Wind Warnings (Mount Holly and Upton) and the expired Aberdeen Severe Thunderstorm Warning; National Hurricane Center public products for Polo, Nolo, and Fay. Morning desk for this calendar day: Storm Updates: High Plains Hail Marginal, Nor’easter Wind Fade — Sunday, September 27, 2026 (Morning).

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watch, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

September 27, 2026

Storm Updates: Mid-Atlantic High Wind, Southern Plains Marginal — Saturday, September 26, 2026

This is a live Saturday afternoon snapshot of U.S. local-storm activity as of Saturday, September 26, 2026. The organized severe desk is a small Marginal over the southern Plains, not a national outbreak. The Storm Prediction Center 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook, issued 0250 PM CDT and valid 262000Z–271200Z, holds a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms late this afternoon and evening from western Oklahoma into northwest Texas. Summary language from Norman: isolated hail and strong outflow winds may accompany thunderstorms across portions of the southern Plains late this afternoon into the early evening. The outlined Marginal covers about 32,889 square miles and roughly 748,515 people, with larger centers including Wichita Falls, Lawton, Enid, Yukon, and Altus. No convective watches are valid. Restoration exposure this afternoon is split: tree and power-line wind on the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England High Wind Warnings, isolated hail and outflow gusts on the Oklahoma–northwest Texas Marginal, and water on the Weather Prediction Center Slight excessive-rainfall areas over Iowa and the coastal Northeast.

Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What is live this afternoon

No tornado or severe thunderstorm watches are current. The SPC watch page states no watches are valid. The last issued convective watch on the board is Watch 674, already expired. No mesoscale discussions are in effect. The 20Z Day 1 update kept the forecast generally on track and made only a slight southward expansion of the 5 percent wind probability. As of 1945 UTC, a deepening cumulus field was noted from West Texas into southwestern Oklahoma, with isolated thunderstorm development ongoing over the higher terrain of southwest Texas. Temperatures had warmed into the upper 80s to mid 90s F, with temperature-dewpoint spreads approaching 30 F in parts of northwest Texas. Steep low-level lapse rates may support isolated strong or damaging outflow gusts, with an instance of large hail also possible farther north where deep-layer shear is marginally stronger. A lack of stronger synoptic-scale forcing, generally modest mid-level flow, and poor mid-level lapse rates are expected to limit overall intensity and coverage.

The Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, updated 1556 UTC Saturday and valid 16Z Saturday through 12Z Sunday, holds a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall for parts of the coastal Northeast and Iowa. WPC notes a large nor’easter crawling off the Delaware and southern New Jersey coast, with a 986 mb center as of the 16Z discussion. Coastal and tidal flooding, aided by a full moon and the storm’s slow motion, are described as substantially more impactful than rainfall flooding. The Slight was expanded slightly to include urban northern New Jersey and urban central Connecticut. A higher-end Slight that had covered eastern Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and eastern Long Island was dropped with the 16Z update. All of the Northeast sits on the cold, northwest side of the storm, so instability for truly heavy convective rain is lacking. This remains a prolonged light-to-moderate rain event stacked on tides and high wind, not a warm-sector flash-flood outbreak.

Iowa’s Slight was left unchanged for central and southwestern Iowa. High-resolution guidance suggests showers and storms on the nose of a low-level jet this evening and tonight. Wet soils have lowered flash-flood guidance into the 1 to 1.5 inch per hour range. Instability is the limiter, struggling to exceed 500 J/kg. A Marginal Risk also remains over more sensitive parts of West Texas around the Davis Mountains and Stockton Plateau.

High Wind Warnings remain the live non-convective overlay on the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England coast. NWS Mount Holly continues a High Wind Warning until 6 AM EDT Sunday for the Delaware beaches and coastal New Jersey zones including Eastern Monmouth, Atlantic Coastal Cape May, Coastal Atlantic, and Coastal Ocean, with north winds 30 to 40 mph and gusts up to 60 mph. NWS Boston/Norton continues High Wind Warnings until 8 AM EDT Sunday for portions of eastern, northeastern, and southeastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island, with northeast winds 20 to 30 mph and gusts up to 50 to 60 mph depending on zone. Those products are trees and power lines, not SPC severe thunderstorm watches.

Hotspot 1 — Western Oklahoma into northwest Texas

This is the only categorical severe area on the Saturday Day 1 map. The 20Z outlook keeps isolated hail and strong outflow as the hazards late afternoon into early evening. Surface-based storms can still form where heating wins west of leftover morning cloud from southwest Oklahoma into Kansas. Cities inside the Marginal include Wichita Falls, Lawton, Enid, Yukon, and Altus. Isolated thunderstorms were already firing on the higher terrain of southwest Texas by mid-afternoon.

Restoration read: isolated wind and a possible hail stone, not a watch overlay. Staff lightning and a few downed limbs if a cell organizes near Lawton, Altus, or the Wichita Falls side of the Red River. Do not pre-position as if a Slight or Enhanced is coming. Photograph any hail or wind damage in daylight if it is safe.

Hotspot 2 — Jersey Shore, Delaware beaches, southern New England

The live work here is High Wind Warnings plus coastal and tidal flooding under a slow nor’easter, not an SPC convective watch. Mount Holly holds the warning through 6 AM Sunday on the Delaware beaches and the New Jersey coastal strip from Sandy Hook and Eastern Monmouth through Atlantic City, Long Beach Island, and Cape May. Boston/Norton holds through 8 AM Sunday from the North Shore and Boston through the South Coast, Cape Cod, the Islands, and Rhode Island. WPC’s Slight rainfall risk still covers parts of the coastal Northeast, including urban northern New Jersey and urban central Connecticut, but the 16Z discussion is explicit: coastal and tidal flooding matter more than the rain totals.

Restoration read: trees, wires, and wet basements on a long-duration coastal blow. Power outages are the expected ticket language in the NWS impact statements. Do not drive inundated coastal roads at high tide. This is not a hurricane landfall and not a derecho. Hurricane Nolo is a Hawaii desk. Hurricane Polo is a Baja California Sur forecast, not a U.S. East Coast landfall.

Hotspot 3 — Central and southwestern Iowa

WPC left the Slight Risk unchanged at 16Z for central and southwestern Iowa. Cell training along a northwest-southeast stationary front is still possible this evening and tonight on already wet soils. Earlier discussion language also kept eastern Nebraska and far northern Missouri in the broader rain corridor, with some 24-hour amounts able to reach or exceed 2 inches where storms train. Instability stays weak. Occasional mainly elevated thunderstorms remain possible from northeast Oklahoma northward to Iowa per the SPC Day 1 discussion, but that is not a categorical severe area.

Restoration read: water on poor drainage and low crossings tonight, not hail or a wind swath. Check Saturday night into Sunday morning for ponding. Turn around, don’t drown.

Just hit

SPC today’s storm reports for the 1200 UTC September 26 through 1159 UTC September 27 window show no tornado reports, no hail reports, and no wind reports as of this afternoon desk. The severe board is still empty for today’s convective day.

The work that is already a ticket is coastal wind and water on the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England side of the nor’easter, plus leftover runoff from the last several days on the southern High Plains. Those are NWS high-wind and flood products, not today’s SPC local storm reports. Do not reprint Friday’s New Mexico flash-flood warnings as Saturday LSRs.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS / WPC level	Status this afternoon
Western OK / northwest TX	Isolated hail, outflow wind	SPC 2000 UTC Marginal	Live late afternoon / evening
DE beaches / NJ coast / southern New England	High wind, trees, tidal flood	NWS High Wind Warnings; WPC Slight rain	Warnings into Sunday morning
Central / southwestern Iowa	Training rain, isolated runoff	WPC Slight	Evening / overnight
West Texas mountains	Localized heavy rain	WPC Marginal	Isolated
CONUS severe watches	None	No watches; last was 674	Quiet
SPC LSRs today	None	0 tornado / 0 hail / 0 wind	Quiet

What this means for restoration teams

Saturday afternoon is a split desk. The convective piece is a small Marginal from western Oklahoma into northwest Texas with no watch and an empty LSR board. Treat that as isolated cells, not a regional wind event. The live volume sits on the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England High Wind Warnings: trees, wires, and wet basements under a slow nor’easter. Iowa is an overnight water check on already wet ground.

Interior water still starts a 24–48 hour mold clock. Photograph in daylight if it is safe. Do not drive flooded coastal roads at high tide or low crossings in Iowa tonight. Hurricane Nolo remains a Hawaii flood-and-wind desk south of the Big Island. Hurricane Polo is forecast for Baja California Sur, not the U.S. mainland. Tropical Storm Gonzalo and Tropical Depression Fay are well out in the eastern and central Atlantic. Do not mix those crew maps with the Jersey Shore wind pile or the Oklahoma Marginal.

What this is not

This is not a regional derecho and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. SPC has one Marginal area and no Slight or higher. No convective watch is up. No mesoscale discussion is up. Today’s LSR board is empty. The nor’easter is a high-wind and coastal-flood event on the cold side of the low, not a tropical cyclone making landfall on the East Coast. That is the local-storm pattern this desk should staff.

Looking ahead

The SPC Day 2 Convective Outlook, issued 1247 AM CDT Saturday and valid 271200Z–281200Z Sunday, carries no severe thunderstorm areas. Summary: severe thunderstorms are not expected Sunday. An upper low is expected to meander over the lower Hudson Valley while ridging prevails over the Plains. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible from the Great Basin into the Plains, but overlapping buoyancy and shear look limited. Day 3 also has no severe thunderstorm areas. Sunday’s restoration check is leftover Mid-Atlantic wind damage and any Iowa runoff that verifies overnight, not a new severe outbreak.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook for Saturday, September 26, 2026 (issued 0250 PM CDT); SPC current watch page (no watches valid; last issued Watch 674); SPC mesoscale discussion page (none in effect); SPC storm reports for 1200 UTC September 26 through 1159 UTC September 27 (no tornado, hail, or wind reports at this desk); Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook discussion updated 1153 AM EDT Saturday; NWS Mount Holly High Wind Warning text; NWS Boston/Norton High Wind Warning text; SPC Day 2 Convective Outlook issued 1247 AM CDT Saturday; National Hurricane Center active-system summaries for Nolo, Polo, Gonzalo, and Fay.

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watch, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay. Morning desk: Saturday morning, September 26 storm updates.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

September 26, 2026

Storm Updates: New Mexico Flood Slight, Quiet Severe Pulse — Friday, September 25, 2026

This is a live Friday afternoon snapshot of U.S. local-storm activity as of Friday, September 25, 2026. The organized desk is still water on the southern High Plains, not a national wind outbreak. The Storm Prediction Center 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook, issued 0251 PM CDT and valid 252000Z–261200Z, carries no severe thunderstorm areas. Summary language from Norman: organized severe thunderstorms are not expected today. The 20Z update made no changes. Isolated thunderstorms were noted across western Oklahoma around 1945 UTC, but cloud cover continues to limit heating. The Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook still holds a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall across portions of the southern High Plains, with moisture lifting northeast toward the central Kansas–Nebraska border and the northern Nebraska–Iowa border tonight.

Restoration exposure this afternoon is water: leftover runoff from last night’s New Mexico–west Texas MCS, live flash-flood warnings on the Albuquerque desk, and isolated heavy cells if storms redevelop on already wet ground. Wind and hail remain a low-confidence scatter, not a watch overlay. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What is live this afternoon

No tornado or severe thunderstorm watches are current. The SPC watch page, updated 1804 UTC Friday, states no watches are valid. The last issued convective watch on the board is Watch 674, already expired. No mesoscale discussions are in effect as of 2010 UTC Friday. Yesterday evening’s 0100 UTC Day 1 outlook had carried a Marginal Risk over parts of the Texas Panhandle; that window closed overnight. Today’s packages dropped categorical severe probabilities entirely.

Water products are the live overlay. NWS Albuquerque issued a flash-flood warning at 135 PM MDT Friday for east-central Cibola County until 430 PM MDT, covering Laguna Pueblo, New Laguna, Mesita, Acoma Pueblo, Paraje, Seama, and Acomita, including Interstate 40 between mile markers 106 and 121. Radar indicated up to 1 inch already down with another half inch possible. A second Albuquerque warning at 220 PM MDT covers west-central Santa Fe County until 515 PM MDT. Midland/Odessa continues a Flood Watch through this evening for portions of southeast New Mexico — Central Lea, Eddy County Plains, Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County, Northern Lea — and southwest Texas including the Davis and Guadalupe Mountains, Marfa Plateau, Presidio Valley, and the Van Horn corridor. Albuquerque also continues a Flood Watch until midnight MDT for east-central and southeast New Mexico, including Curry, Roosevelt, Chaves, Quay, De Baca, eastern Lincoln, and the south-central mountains.

Hotspot 1 — Cibola and Santa Fe Counties, New Mexico

This is the live afternoon ticket. Albuquerque’s Cibola warning is radar-indicated heavy rain on already sensitive ground, with life-threatening flash-flood language on creeks, urban areas, and I-40. The Santa Fe County warning is the same pattern a county east: up to an inch already, more possible through mid-afternoon. These are not the overnight Eddy–Chaves–Otero warnings from the morning desk. Those expired. This is a new pulse on the west-central and north-central New Mexico side of the same moisture plume.

Restoration read: water first. Do not treat I-40 between Grants and Albuquerque as a clean haul if the Cibola warning is still live. Photograph high-water marks after the product expires. Extraction and drying on structures that took this afternoon’s pulse start the same 24–48 hour mold clock as last night’s Pecos Valley work. Turn around, don’t drown on pueblo and canyon crossings.

Hotspot 2 — Southeast New Mexico into West Texas (Flood Watch)

WPC keeps the Slight Risk from southeastern New Mexico to the southern Panhandle and south into parts of West Texas where 3-hour flash-flood guidance is under an inch. Midland’s Flood Watch through this evening names Artesia, Carlsbad, Hobbs, Lovington, Alpine, Marfa, Fort Davis, Van Horn, and Presidio. Guidance had morning storms diminishing as the shortwave lifted northeast, then allowed localized 1–2 inch amounts later in the day on wet soils. Gaines County, Texas, took a morning flash-flood warning from Midland at 734 AM CDT until 1030 AM CDT for Seminole and Seagraves; that product is expired and belongs in the just-hit column.

Restoration read: leftover water from Thursday night plus any new cells on the watch. Stage pumps where last night’s warnings sat — Eddy, Chaves, Otero, El Paso, Hudspeth — and keep an eye on Lea County and the Davis Mountains if afternoon storms fire. This is still not a wind event.

Hotspot 3 — Western Oklahoma scatter and the central Plains rain axis

SPC’s 20Z discussion notes isolated thunderstorm development across western Oklahoma as of 1945 UTC, with cloud cover still tempering surface heating. A stronger gust or two remains possible where a cell finds a pocket of better heating, but the overall severe risk is limited. That is why there is still no categorical severe area and no watch. Farther north, WPC notes that shortwave energy and tropical-origin moisture lifting out of the Southwest can support efficient rainfall tonight near the central Kansas–Nebraska border northeast toward the northern Nebraska–Iowa border, with some guidance showing more than 2 inches. Instability stays weak. Treat that as isolated runoff, not a Moderate flood upgrade.

Restoration read: western Oklahoma is lightning and a possible isolated gust. Kansas–Nebraska–Iowa is a Saturday-morning check on poor-drainage and low crossings if the overnight rain verifies, not a Friday afternoon extract pile.

Just hit

SPC today’s storm reports for the 1200 UTC September 25 through 1159 UTC September 26 window show no tornado reports, no hail reports, and no wind reports as of this afternoon desk. That is a Quiet Pulse on the severe board.

The work that already happened is water. Overnight flash-flood warnings from Midland, Albuquerque, and El Paso/Santa Teresa covered northwestern Eddy County, southwestern Chaves County, and central Otero County in New Mexico, plus east-central El Paso and west-central Hudspeth Counties in Texas, where 2 to 3 inches had already fallen before dawn. Those products expired this morning. Midland’s Gaines County warning this morning for Seminole and Seagraves also expired. Survey and extraction replace that overlay. Thursday’s 60 mph wind report at Memphis in Hall County, Texas, remains yesterday’s High Plains Marginal, not a new Friday LSR.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS / WPC level	Status this afternoon
Cibola / Santa Fe Counties, NM	Flash flood, I-40 runoff	NWS Albuquerque FFWs	Live until 430 / 515 PM MDT
SE NM / West Texas	Flash flood, leftover runoff	WPC Slight; Midland / ABQ Flood Watches	Watch through evening / midnight
Western OK cells	Isolated gust, lightning	SPC 2000 UTC: no categorical area	Scatter only
KS–NE–IA rain axis	Heavy rain tonight, isolated runoff	WPC discussion, no Moderate	Overnight check
CONUS severe watches	None	No watches; last was 674	Quiet
SPC LSRs today	None	0 tornado / 0 hail / 0 wind	Quiet

What this means for restoration teams

Friday afternoon is a Quiet Pulse on the severe side and a water desk in New Mexico. The live work is Cibola and Santa Fe Counties while those warnings are up, plus extraction on last night’s Eddy–Chaves–Otero–El Paso–Hudspeth pile. Interior water starts a 24–48 hour mold clock. Photograph in daylight if it is safe. Do not drive flooded crossings in the pueblos, the Sacramento Mountains, or the Pecos Valley.

Western Oklahoma and West Texas may still fire isolated strong cells before sunset. Staff that as local lightning and a possible isolated gust, not a regional wind swath. The Kansas–Nebraska rain axis is a Saturday morning check. Hurricane Nolo remains a Hawaii County flood-and-wind desk. Fay and Gonzalo in the Atlantic and Polo and Odalys in the eastern Pacific are not U.S. mainland landfalls this afternoon. Do not mix those crew maps with the New Mexico water pile.

What this is not

This is not a regional derecho and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. SPC has no Day 1 severe area. No convective watch is up. No mesoscale discussion is up. Today’s LSR board is empty. Thursday’s Moderate flood risk over southeast New Mexico remains stepped down to a Slight. The work this afternoon is leftover water plus two live Albuquerque flash-flood warnings. That is the local-storm pattern this desk should staff.

Looking ahead

The SPC Day 2 Convective Outlook, issued 1226 PM CDT Friday and valid 261200Z–271200Z Saturday, carries a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms late Saturday afternoon and evening from northwest Texas into central Kansas. Summary: isolated hail and strong outflow winds may accompany thunderstorms across portions of the central and southern Plains Saturday. Day 3 Sunday has no severe thunderstorm areas. WPC Day 2 steps the Northeast up to a Slight excessive-rainfall risk Saturday as a nor’easter deepens east of New Jersey, with 1–3 inches possible from the northern Mid-Atlantic into southern New England. That is Saturday’s overlay, not tonight’s New Mexico ticket.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook for Friday, September 25, 2026 (issued 0251 PM CDT); SPC current watch page (no watches valid as of 1804 UTC; last issued Watch 674); SPC mesoscale discussion page (none in effect as of 2010 UTC); SPC storm reports for 1200 UTC September 25 through 1159 UTC September 26 (no tornado, hail, or wind reports at this desk); Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook discussion; National Weather Service Albuquerque flash-flood warnings for Cibola County (135 PM MDT) and Santa Fe County (220 PM MDT); NWS Midland/Odessa Flood Watch and Gaines County flash-flood warning text; NWS Albuquerque Flood Watch; SPC Day 2 Convective Outlook issued 1226 PM CDT Friday.

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watch, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay. Morning desk: Friday morning, September 25 storm updates.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

September 25, 2026

Storm Updates: Southeast New Mexico Flood Moderate, High Plains Marginal — Thursday, September 24, 2026

This is a live Thursday afternoon snapshot of U.S. local-storm activity as of Thursday, September 24, 2026. The organized desk is water, not a national wind outbreak. The Weather Prediction Center 16Z Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook upgrade holds a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall across parts of southeast New Mexico. The Storm Prediction Center 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook holds a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms across portions of the eastern Texas Panhandle, western Oklahoma, and western Kansas. No convective watches are in effect as of the 2107 UTC SPC watch page.

These are county-scale thunderstorms and flash-flood cells on saturated soils, not a mainland hurricane landfall. Restoration exposure this afternoon and tonight is interior water and mud where New Mexico cells train, plus isolated wind, hail, and tree work if a High Plains downburst verifies. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What is live this afternoon

SPC’s 1630 UTC Day 1 outlook, issued 1114 AM CDT Thursday, September 24, 2026, and valid 1630Z Thursday through 1200Z Friday, places a Marginal Risk over about 42,181 square miles and roughly 370,000 people. Named population centers inside the contour include Dodge City, Kansas; Altus, Oklahoma; Pampa, Texas; Woodward, Oklahoma; and Elk City, Oklahoma. The official summary: a couple of marginally severe thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon into the early evening across parts of the southern High Plains. A 2000 UTC outlook update discussed on secondary feeds left the contour unchanged and pointed to Mesoscale Discussion 2327; by 1801 UTC the SPC mesoscale page showed no discussions in effect, with 2326 the most recent archived number.

WPC’s Day 1 excessive-rainfall discussion issued 417 PM EDT Thursday, September 24, 2026, upgraded the existing Slight Risk to a Moderate Risk for portions of southeast New Mexico after coordination with NWS Albuquerque and El Paso. The language cites slow-moving thunderstorms, saturated soils from multiple prior Moderate ERO days, and HREF neighborhood probabilities over 70 percent for both 3 inches of rain and 10-year ARI exceedance over parts of Lincoln, Chaves, and Otero counties. Surrounding Slight and Marginal flood-risk language remains over parts of the Southwest into the southern and central Plains. WPC Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1375, issued 238 PM EDT Thursday and valid 1838Z Thursday through 0003Z Friday, flags the Pecos River Valley: flash flooding likely, with 2 to 4 inches possible where cells backbuild near the Sacramento Mountains.

No tornado or severe thunderstorm watches are current. The last issued convective watch on the SPC board is Watch 674, already expired. SPC today’s storm reports (1200 UTC September 24 through 1159 UTC September 25) show one preliminary wind report as of this desk: 60 mph at Memphis in Hall County, Texas, at 1758 UTC, relayed by NWS Lubbock. No hail or tornado reports have posted on that same page yet.

Hotspot 1 — Southeast New Mexico: Lincoln, Chaves, Otero

This is the live flood upgrade. WPC and WFO coordination put the Moderate Risk on the eastern slope of the Sacramento Mountains and the upper Pecos drainage, where soils already sit at very high NASA SPoRT moisture percentiles and flash-flood guidance is low. Cities and counties to watch: Ruidoso and the Lincoln County high country, Roswell and Chaves County, Alamogordo and Otero County, plus adjacent terrain toward the Texas line covered by MPD 1375.

Restoration read: water first. Treat any ZIP that takes a 1- to 2-inch-per-hour core as an extraction job tonight, not a tomorrow morning survey. Photograph only if it is safe. Low-water crossings and arroyos fail before the living room does. Turn around, don’t drown.

Hotspot 2 — Eastern Texas Panhandle, western Oklahoma, western Kansas

This is the SPC Marginal contour. Outlook language from Mosier and Chalmers at 1114 AM CDT Thursday: mid-to-upper 60s dewpoints east of a mid-level moisture plume, afternoon temperatures in the mid to upper 80s, MLCAPE 1500 to 2000 J/kg, weak shear, disorganized storm mode, a few water-loaded downbursts, and a couple of weak supercells possible into Kansas where a weak vorticity maximum moves through. Isolated hail or damaging gusts are the ceiling in the official text. Dodge City, Pampa, Amarillo’s eastern approaches, Altus, Elk City, and Woodward sit inside or on the edge of that language.

Restoration read: isolated wind and hail tickets, not a line. Stage one tarp crew and one extractor, not a CAT convoy. The 60 mph Memphis, Texas, report is the only official LSR on today’s SPC page as of this writing — treat it as a local pulse, not proof the whole contour verified.

Hotspot 3 — Hawaii County under Tropical Storm Nolo; East Coast coastal low is not a named landfall

The National Hurricane Center and Central Pacific Hurricane Center are issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Nolo. As of the Thursday afternoon NHC/CPHC board, Nolo was south of the Big Island with maximum sustained winds near 70 mph, a Tropical Storm Warning in effect for Hawaii County, and forecast language that it could reach hurricane strength later Thursday. That is U.S. land exposure on the Big Island. It is not a continental U.S. landfall.

Tropical Storm Fay is in the central Atlantic, hundreds of miles west-southwest of the Azores, and is not a U.S. land threat on current advisories. Hurricane Polo is off southwestern Mexico. Hurricane Odalys is well west-southwest of Baja. WPC short-range discussion also flags a developing East Coast coastal low for coastal flooding, rip currents, wind gusts, and heavy rain into the weekend. That feature is not a named hurricane making U.S. landfall. Do not staff the Mid-Atlantic as if Fay or Polo were coming ashore.

Just hit

Yesterday’s SPC report page (1200 UTC September 23 through 1159 UTC September 24) is already a ticket list, not today’s new watch: quarter-size hail at New England in Hettinger County, North Dakota, at 2307 UTC; a tree down at Van Wert in Polk County, Georgia, at 2000 UTC; a 58 mph gust 4 SE of Frederick in Tillman County, Oklahoma, at 2158 UTC. Overnight into this morning, NWS Dodge City had a Flash Flood Warning covering parts of Grant, Hamilton, Kearny, Morton, and Stanton counties in southwestern Kansas until 500 AM CDT Thursday after 2 to 3 inches of rain. That Kansas water is yesterday-into-dawn work still on the books.

The Thursday morning Storm Updates already logged the New Mexico–Plains flood slight and Dakotas hail pulse. This afternoon post is the upgrade desk: WPC Moderate on southeast New Mexico, SPC Marginal still on the High Plains, watches still zero.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS level	Status this afternoon
SE New Mexico (Lincoln / Chaves / Otero)	Flash flood, training 2–4 in cores	WPC Moderate + MPD 1375	Live flood desk
Eastern TX Panhandle / western OK / western KS	Isolated damaging gusts, isolated hail	SPC Marginal	No watch; late-day cells
SW Kansas overnight counties	Already-fallen 2–3 in rain	Expired FF.W overnight	Aftermath / still wet
Hawaii County	TS wind, surf, heavy rain	Tropical Storm Warning (Nolo)	Live tropical warning
East Coast coastal low	Coastal flood, rip, gusty wind	WPC short-range language	Not a named landfall
CONUS watches	None	No valid SPC watch	Quiet watch board

What this means for restoration teams

Southeast New Mexico is a water night. Saturated soils plus another 2 to 4 inches in a training core is wet drywall, crawlspaces, and a 24-to-48-hour mold clock. High Plains Marginal cells, if they verify, are roof, siding, and isolated tree-on-structure work — staff them as single-ZIP pulses. Hawaii County under Nolo is a separate tropical desk: wind-driven rain, surf, and outages on the Big Island, not a Gulf or Atlantic landfall. Do not mix those three crews in one dispatch board.

For teams near Roswell, Ruidoso, or Alamogordo: stage extractors and pumps before dark, not after the first flash-flood warning. For teams near Pampa, Altus, or Dodge City: one severe-warned cell is the ticket, not the whole outlook contour. Property owners should photograph damage in remaining daylight only if it is safe, call the carrier, and start extraction the same night if water is inside.

What this is not

This is not a regional derecho and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. Fay is mid-ocean. Polo is off Mexico. Odalys is well offshore in the eastern Pacific. Nolo is a Hawaii County warning, which is real U.S. land exposure, but it is not the CONUS headline. The work tonight, if it comes, will be scattered: a flooded arroyo in Lincoln or Chaves County, a downburst roof in the Texas Panhandle or western Oklahoma, leftover Kansas water from last night. That is the local-storm pattern this desk should staff.

Looking ahead

The SPC 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook issued 1228 PM CDT Thursday, September 24, 2026, valid 1200Z Friday through 1200Z Saturday, carries no severe thunderstorm areas. Summary: severe thunderstorms are not expected Friday. WPC Day 2 excessive rainfall, updated Thursday, holds a Marginal Risk from New Mexico into the Plains and over southeast New England. Day 3 convective language on the SPC homepage still shows a later Marginal window. Watch the next Storm Tracker update rather than assuming today’s Moderate flood contour is the last water line of the week.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources dated Thursday, September 24, 2026: NOAA Storm Prediction Center 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook; SPC current watches page (no valid watches as of 2107 UTC); SPC today and September 23 storm-report pages; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook and 417 PM EDT discussion (Moderate Risk, southeast New Mexico); WPC Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1375 (Pecos River Valley); WPC Day 2 ERO; SPC 1730 UTC Day 2 outlook; National Hurricane Center / CPHC advisory board for Tropical Storm Nolo, Tropical Storm Fay, Hurricane Polo, and Hurricane Odalys; National Weather Service warning text including the overnight Dodge City flash-flood warning.

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watch, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay. Related desk: Thursday morning Storm Updates.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

September 24, 2026

Storm Updates: New Mexico Flood Moderate, Utah–Southeast Marginal — Tuesday, September 22, 2026

This is a live Tuesday afternoon snapshot of U.S. local-storm activity as of Tuesday, September 22, 2026. The organized flood desk remains over southern New Mexico. The Storm Prediction Center 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook still holds two Marginal Risk corridors — much of Utah into adjacent Wyoming and Colorado, and a portion of the Southeast that the 20Z update shifted farther south and east into central Georgia and southern Alabama. No convective watches are currently valid. Restoration exposure this afternoon into tonight is water first in southern New Mexico and far west Texas, isolated severe wind and marginally severe hail on the Utah corridor, locally severe gusts plus leftover flood axes in the Southeast and central Appalachians, and tree/wire work already on the board in Lauderdale County, Alabama.

These are county- and ZIP-scale thunderstorms and flood pulses, not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. There is no named tropical cyclone threatening U.S. land this afternoon. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll. Morning desk: Storm Updates September 22, 2026 (Morning).

What is live this afternoon

SPC’s 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook (issued 2:56 p.m. CDT Tuesday, September 22, 2026; Halbert/Lyons; valid 222000Z–231200Z) keeps a Marginal Risk for much of Utah into adjacent Wyoming and Colorado, and across a portion of the Southeast. Summary: isolated severe wind gusts expected today in Utah into southwest Wyoming and western Colorado; thunderstorms capable of strong to locally severe damaging gusts also possible across parts of the Southeast. The 20Z update moved the Southeast Marginal farther south and east into central Georgia and southern Alabama, where storms had already developed in an unstable airmass with steep low-level lapse rates.

No convective watches were currently valid as of the SPC watches page update at 15:56:05 UTC Tuesday, September 22, 2026. Most recent watch on the board: 0674. Check spc.noaa.gov/products/watch before you stage.

WPC’s Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 1553 UTC Tuesday, September 22, 2026; Taylor/Chenard; valid 16Z Tue–12Z Wed) still holds a Moderate Risk across portions of southern New Mexico. WPC notes a potentially significant multi-day flood event over New Mexico and far southwest Texas, with 1–2 inches per hour rain rates this afternoon and training bands tonight. Neighborhood guidance: moderate chance of at least 3 inches (about 40–60 percent) and a low chance of at least 5 inches. Slight Risk axes remain over central to southeast Virginia into South Carolina and West Virginia into southwest Virginia. South Florida stays a WPC Marginal urban-flood desk.

Live warning-scale water this afternoon includes NWS flash-flood warnings for parts of Lincoln/Socorro, Doña Ana/Otero in New Mexico, and Randolph/Webster in West Virginia — already hung as separate Tygart Media warning pulses. NWS also had a flood advisory for west-central Lee County, Alabama (Auburn/Opelika) into late afternoon and a severe thunderstorm warning earlier over Jackson and DeKalb Counties, Alabama.

Hotspot 1 — Southern New Mexico / far west Texas

Still the national flood desk. An upper trough, jet right-entrance dynamics, deep southerly moisture, and precipitable water toward mid/late September record levels support a multi-day event. Afternoon is scattered thunderstorms and flash-flood potential; overnight guidance concentrates a rain shield with heavier cores over southern New Mexico. Sacramento Mountains burn scars remain in the higher-impact language. Flash-flood warnings this afternoon already covered Lincoln, Socorro, Doña Ana, and Otero Counties.

Restoration read: water first, overnight worse than the afternoon pulse. Stage pumps and air movers before the shield organizes. Low-water crossings and burn-scar runoff fail first. Start extraction the same night if water is inside.

Hotspot 2 — Utah into southwest Wyoming and western Colorado

SPC Marginal wind-and-hail corridor is the afternoon convective desk in the West. A potent shortwave over the western Great Basin and a belt of stronger mid-level flow from northern Arizona into central and northern Utah support scattered to numerous storms. Buoyancy stays modest (MLCAPE generally under 1,000 J/kg), but shear and cold mid-levels support organized cells, isolated large hail, and strong gusts off high bases and steep low-level lapse rates. Activity can spill into western Colorado and southwest Wyoming late afternoon into early evening. Larger centers inside the earlier outlook footprint include Salt Lake City, West Valley City, Provo, West Jordan, and Orem.

Restoration read: wind and isolated hail, not a flood CAT. Stage tarps, generators, and tree crews before early evening. Soft-metal roofs and skylights after stronger cores only if it is safe.

Hotspot 3 — Southeast / southern Appalachians

SPC Marginal for the Southeast is a slow-moving cold front into a moist airmass. The 20Z update pulled the risk south and east into central Georgia and southern Alabama, matching storms already on radar. Weak shear keeps the mode multicellular and outflow-dominant; water-loaded downdrafts can still put 50–60 mph gusts on the ground. Today’s preliminary LSRs already show Lauderdale County, Alabama wind damage: power lines down west of Lexington around 1814 UTC, a power pole and lines on a vehicle west of Rogersville around 1835 UTC, and lines down at Lauderdale County High School and the adjacent parking lot around 1856 UTC (NWS Huntsville).

WPC Slight flood axes remain over southeast Virginia into South Carolina and West Virginia into southwest Virginia, where soils are already wet and flash-flood guidance is lower. Randolph and Webster Counties, West Virginia, carried a live flash-flood warning into the evening.

Restoration read: gusty wind and street flooding can share the same ZIP. Alabama tree and wire jobs are already tickets. Charlotte-to-Atlanta language from this morning is not a derecho — treat each county warning as a local pulse.

Just hit

SPC preliminary local storm reports for the 22/1200 UTC–23/1159 UTC window (as of this afternoon hang) show no tornado reports and no hail reports yet. Wind reports on the board are Lauderdale County, Alabama: lines down 3 W Lexington; pole and lines on a vehicle 2 W Rogersville; lines down at Lauderdale County High School in Rogersville. Those are already restoration tickets — trees, wire, and possible vehicle/roof work — not a regional outbreak.

Monday night’s Appalachians–Southeast flash-flood pulse is aftermath. This afternoon’s live water is New Mexico and pockets of West Virginia, plus a Lee County, Alabama flood advisory earlier this afternoon.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / WPC / NWS level	Status this afternoon
Southern NM / far west TX	Flash flood, training rain tonight, burn-scar runoff	WPC Moderate + live FFWs	Live flood desk today–Wed
Utah into SW WY / western CO	Severe wind gusts, isolated large hail	SPC Marginal	Afternoon–early evening
SE / central GA / southern AL	Locally severe damaging gusts, trees/wire	SPC Marginal (shifted S/E at 20Z)	Live; AL LSRs already in
SE VA into SC; WV into SW VA	Flash flood / heavy rain	WPC Slight + WV FFWs	Today into tonight
South Florida	Urban flash flood	WPC Marginal	Local
U.S. mainland tropics	No landfalling tropical cyclone	NHC quiet for mainland	Quiet

What this means for restoration teams

Southern New Mexico is the water CAT if the Moderate risk verifies overnight — extraction, drying, and a 24–48 hour mold clock. Utah’s Marginal corridor is wind and isolated hail. Southeast Marginal wind is already producing Lauderdale County tickets; treat Georgia and Alabama warnings as local, not a derecho. West Virginia water is a second flood desk on already-wet ground. Stage New Mexico before the overnight shield. Start extraction the same night if water is inside. Turn around, don’t drown.

What this is not

This is not a regional derecho and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. Post-tropical Fay is open Atlantic near the Azores and is not a U.S. land threat. Hurricane Polo and Tropical Storm Odalys remain eastern Pacific systems and are not mainland landfall threats today. No convective watches are up. Do not invent a named CAT for Restoration Intel off this pulse.

Looking ahead

SPC’s current Day 2 outlook (Wednesday, September 23) is Marginal Risk as of the 1719 UTC issuance (Dean). Day 3 is currently no severe thunderstorms. That does not cancel tonight’s New Mexico flood problem or this evening’s Utah and Southeast Marginal corridors. Watch the next Storm Tracker update rather than assuming the Moderate rainfall risk is the last line of the week.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources dated Tuesday, September 22, 2026: SPC 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook (Halbert/Lyons, 2:56 p.m. CDT); SPC watches page updated 15:56:05 UTC (no watches valid; last watch 0674); SPC today’s LSRs (Lauderdale County, AL wind); WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook updated 1553 UTC (Taylor/Chenard); NWS flash-flood warnings for Lincoln/Socorro, Doña Ana/Otero, NM and Randolph/Webster, WV; NHC advisories (Fay remnant, Polo, Odalys). Morning desk: September 22, 2026 (Morning).

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watch, and local storm reports, and WPC Day 1 ERO for the flood overlay.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

September 22, 2026

Storm Updates: Appalachians–Southeast Marginal + Central Appalachians Flood Slight — Monday, September 21, 2026

This is a live Monday afternoon snapshot of U.S. local-storm activity as of Monday, September 21, 2026. The Storm Prediction Center 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook holds a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms from parts of the Southeast into the central Appalachians and over the Texas South Plains. No convective watches are currently valid. The Weather Prediction Center maintains a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over portions of the central Appalachians. Scattered severe thunderstorm warnings and flash-flood warnings remain active this afternoon across portions of the Tennessee Valley, Carolinas, Alabama, and West Virginia.

These are county- and ZIP-scale thunderstorms and localized heavy-rain pulses, not a mainland hurricane landfall or organized derecho. Restoration exposure this afternoon and evening is wind-driven tree and roof work, isolated hail, and interior water where cells train or flash-flood warnings verify. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What is live this afternoon

SPC’s Marginal Risk covers the Southeast into the southern and central Appalachians, with isolated damaging wind gusts of 50–60 mph the primary threat. A second Marginal area sits over the Texas South Plains where isolated large hail and severe gusts remain possible later today. Mesoscale Discussion 2323 (issued 1938 UTC) covers the Texas South Plains into the Permian Basin and notes watch issuance is unlikely; strongest storms may briefly produce large hail up to 1.25 inches and marginally severe wind.

WPC’s Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook keeps a Slight Risk over the central Appalachians (expanded earlier to include more of West Virginia and southwest Virginia). Guidance supports 1–3 inches with locally higher amounts where cells train near a backdoor cold front and shortwave energy. Flash Flood Warnings and Flood Warnings remain active or recently expired across portions of West Virginia, Ohio, and adjacent counties from overnight and early-morning convection.

Hotspot 1 — Central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic fringe (WPC Slight + SPC Marginal)

This is the dual-threat corridor. Scattered thunderstorms continue along and south of a cold front stretching from southern Virginia west-northwest into northern Kentucky and southwestward. Highest coverage expected from southeast Tennessee and northwest Georgia through northern Alabama into central/southern Mississippi and eastern Louisiana, with additional activity into southwest Virginia and West Virginia. Vertical shear is weak; storm mode is largely multicellular and outflow-dominant, but ample moisture (PW values over 2 inches) supports strong to locally severe gusts and flash flooding on saturated soils.

Cities and counties to watch: Charleston, Parkersburg, and surrounding West Virginia counties; southwest Virginia counties including Giles, Mercer, and Summers; portions of eastern Kentucky and southern Ohio; Chattanooga and Knoxville metro fringes in Tennessee; northern Alabama counties including Madison and Marshall.

Restoration read: wind and water both in play. Stage tarps, generators, and tree crews. Flash-flood warnings mean extraction and drying work may already be on the books by evening. Photograph roofs in remaining daylight only if it is safe.

Hotspot 2 — Texas South Plains and northeast Texas

Isolated to widely scattered storms continue near the intersection of a weak surface trough and cold front across the Texas South Plains into the Permian Basin. MD 2323 flags the potential for brief severe storms capable of large hail and marginally severe wind before dissipation this evening. A secondary area of higher thunderstorm coverage is expected over northeast Texas this afternoon and evening, where water-loaded downbursts capable of damaging wind gusts are possible.

Cities and counties to watch: Lubbock, Midland, and surrounding South Plains counties; portions of northeast Texas near the Red River. Local Severe Thunderstorm Warnings have already fired this afternoon in the region.

Restoration read: hail and wind first. Check vehicle and roof damage reports quickly; these are short-lived cells but can produce ticket-scale damage in a single ZIP.

Hotspot 3 — Southeast scatter (Carolinas, Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi)

Ongoing multicell storms continue to produce local Severe Thunderstorm Warnings with 60 mph wind and small to quarter-size hail. Coverage is highest from southeast Tennessee and northwest Georgia through northern Alabama into central/southern Mississippi and eastern Louisiana. Storms are moving relatively slowly or nearly stationary in places, increasing the local flash-flood and wind-damage potential.

Cities and counties to watch: Chattanooga, Huntsville, Birmingham metro areas; portions of the Carolinas and northern Georgia where warnings have been active this afternoon.

Restoration read: scattered wind and tree damage plus isolated water jobs. Treat each warning county as its own ticket rather than a regional event.

Just hit

Overnight and early-morning convection produced Flash Flood Warnings across portions of West Virginia and southeast Ohio, with residual river and stream rises still ongoing in some gauges. Yesterday’s High Plains activity (eastern Colorado into western Kansas) produced large hail reports up to baseball size and is already in the ticket pipeline for those counties. Local wind damage reports from trees and power lines continue to filter in from the Ohio Valley, Illinois, Missouri, Georgia, Alabama, and the Carolinas. No new U.S. mainland tropical cyclone threat is in the National Hurricane Center outlook at this hour.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS level	Status this afternoon
Central Appalachians / WV–SW VA	Flash flood, damaging wind, trees	WPC Slight + SPC Marginal	Live warnings + overnight residual
Southeast / TN–AL–GA–MS–Carolinas	Damaging wind, isolated hail, lightning	SPC Marginal + local SVR	Scattered warnings active
Texas South Plains / NE TX	Large hail, severe gusts	SPC Marginal + MD 2323	Isolated cells, watch unlikely
Ohio Valley residual	Flooding from earlier rain	Local Flood Warnings	Aftermath / still in channel
Atlantic / Gulf vs. U.S. mainland	No landfalling tropical cyclone	Quiet on the mainland coast	Quiet

What this means for restoration teams

Wind at 50–60 mph is roof, siding, gutter, and tree-on-structure work. Hail on the South Plains is vehicle and roof impact. Heavy rain on the central Appalachians Slight Risk is wet drywall and a 24–48 hour mold clock where flash flooding verifies. Overnight West Virginia and Ohio water is already inside some buildings.

For teams near active warnings: stage before the next cell arrives, not after the first report. Property owners should photograph damage in daylight if it is safe, call the carrier, and start extraction the same night if water is inside.

What this is not

This is not a regional derecho and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. The work this afternoon and evening, if it verifies, will be scattered: a wind swath through a Tennessee or West Virginia county, a flooded intersection where Appalachian cells train, isolated hail on the South Plains. That is the local-storm pattern this desk should staff.

Looking ahead

Tuesday the front continues to push south and east with another Marginal Risk possible over portions of the Southeast. Residual flooding in the central Appalachians may linger into Tuesday morning. Watch the next Storm Tracker update rather than assuming today’s Marginal and Slight Risk areas are the last line of the week.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Convective Outlook (2000 UTC, September 21, 2026) and Mesoscale Discussion 2323; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook; National Weather Service warning text for Charleston WV, Blacksburg VA, Huntsville AL, Morristown TN, Lubbock TX, and neighboring offices; SPC Local Storm Reports.

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watches, MDs, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay. Related desk: Monday morning Storm Updates.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

September 21, 2026