Tag: Ohio storms

  • Storm Updates: Appalachians–Southeast Marginal, Texas South Plains Hail Pulse — Monday, September 21, 2026 (Morning)

    This is a live Monday morning snapshot of U.S. local-storm activity as of early Monday, September 21, 2026. The Storm Prediction Center 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook holds a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms from parts of the Southeast into the central Appalachians, and a second Marginal Risk over the Texas South Plains. Isolated damaging wind gusts of 50 to 60 mph are the main threat along the front this afternoon. Isolated large hail and severe gusts are possible later today on the Caprock. No convective watches are currently valid. Severe Thunderstorm Watch 674, last night’s eastern Colorado and extreme western Kansas box, has expired.

    These are county-scale thunderstorms, not a U.S. mainland tropical landfall. Tropical Storm Fay is several hundred miles southwest of the Azores and is not a U.S. land threat. Restoration exposure today is leftover tree and roof work from last night’s Ohio Valley and High Plains cells, plus a new wind-damage pulse if the front fires this afternoon from Kentucky into West Virginia and Virginia. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

    Overnight into this morning

    Radar this morning shows a parade of three mesoscale convective vortices moving east over the Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians, mostly on the cool side of a cold front. That is leftover organization from Sunday night, not a new watch. Local storm reports on the SPC day that closed at 12 UTC Monday include no tornadoes. The hail corridor was eastern Colorado: golf-ball to baseball-size stones around Holyoke, Alvin, Genoa, Boyero, Wild Horse, Kit Carson, Eads, and south of Brandon in Phillips, Yuma, Lincoln, Cheyenne, and Kiowa counties. One social-media measurement near Brandon was 3.10 inches. A spotter windshield was damaged near Wild Horse. A separate 2.00-inch hail report came from Liberty in Union County, Indiana.

    Wind reports overnight were the restoration ticket east of the High Plains. Trees and lines came down across Christian, Greene, Jasper, and Lawrence counties in southwest Missouri, including a tree on a house in Pierce City. Illinois reports included a shed roof in Jasper County, 64 mph at Olney-Noble Airport, and power-line damage near Witt, Ramsey, and Noble. Southwestern Ohio logged trees in Kettering, Bellbrook, and Greene County after midnight. After 3 UTC, NWS Charleston territory picked up trees and blocked roads in Vinton and Meigs counties, Ohio, and in Wirt, Calhoun, and Gilmer counties, West Virginia, including more than 1,200 customers without power along Highway 7 north-northeast of Syracuse. Separate tree-down reports ran through Anderson and Laurens counties in South Carolina, Walton County, Georgia, and a string of Alabama, Georgia, and Florida Panhandle counties from Taylor and Iron City to De Funiak Springs and I-10 mile marker 70.

    Flash flood warning posts already on this desk overnight covered pieces of Muskingum, Washington, Morgan, and Gallia counties in Ohio and Braxton plus north-central West Virginia. Those warnings were timed to expire in the early morning hours. Treat them as just-hit water, not a new outlook. Confirm county status on weather.gov before you treat a warning as still live.

    What is live this morning

    No SPC watches are valid as of 1136 UTC Monday. The Day 1 outlook valid 1300 UTC Monday through 1200 UTC Tuesday is Marginal only. The front this afternoon is forecast from northern Mississippi northeast to western Virginia. Dewpoints ahead of it run upper 60s to lower 70s from the lower Mississippi Valley into West Virginia. SPC expects scattered to numerous single-cell and multicell storms after peak heating, with the better flow on the northern edge of the risk — Kentucky, West Virginia, and Virginia. Stronger downdrafts can produce 50 to 60 mph gusts and pockets of wind damage before cells weaken in the early evening.

    The Texas South Plains Marginal is a separate, isolated pulse. A front and residual outflow drape the Caprock this afternoon. Guidance supports scattered storms in a moist plume during peak heating, with a couple of stronger cells capable of large hail and severe gusts before they die in the evening.

    The Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook page still carried Sunday’s discussion into the 12 UTC Monday valid end, with Slight Risk language over portions of the Midwest and Ohio Valley plus the northern High Plains from the prior period. That is the moisture that already produced last night’s Ohio–West Virginia flood warnings. Use the live WPC graphic and local NWS flash-flood products for today’s water overlay rather than treating Sunday’s Slight as a new box.

    Hotspot 1 — Kentucky, West Virginia, Virginia, and the central Appalachians

    This is the northern edge of today’s Marginal Risk and the part of the front with slightly stronger flow. Cities and counties to watch: Lexington and eastern Kentucky; Charleston, Huntington, Parkersburg, and the central West Virginia counties that already took trees overnight; western and northern Virginia including the Shenandoah and the Richmond-to-Charlottesville fringe of the outlook line. SPC maps the Marginal from near Greenville, Mississippi, northeast through Kentucky to near Parkersburg, then east toward Elkins, Charlottesville, and Richmond before dropping south through Raleigh and Athens toward Montgomery and Jackson.

    Restoration read: wind first, water second. Last night already put trees on roads and lines in Meigs, Wirt, Calhoun, and Gilmer. Another round of 50–60 mph gusts this afternoon is more of the same — roof, siding, service drops — not a regional derecho. If a cell trains on ground that flooded overnight, treat that ZIP as a water job by evening.

    Hotspot 2 — Southeast ahead of the front

    The same Marginal Risk covers central Mississippi, Alabama, northern Georgia, and the western Carolinas. Instability can peak in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range from central Mississippi into western North Carolina, but deep-layer shear is weak. Mode is single cells and disorganized multicells. Sunday evening already produced trees in Anderson and Laurens, South Carolina; Monroe and Walton, Georgia; and the Florida–Alabama line. Today is a repeat isolated-wind desk, not a watch.

    Restoration read: stage locally if your county is on the warm side of the front. Do not move a regional crew on a Marginal that SPC itself frames as isolated 50–60 mph gusts.

    Hotspot 3 — Texas South Plains, plus leftover High Plains hail

    The second Marginal sits from near Clovis and Hobbs across the Caprock toward Childress and Big Spring. Isolated large hail and severe gusts later today are the threat. That is not last night’s Colorado supercell corridor. Last night’s work is already on the books in Cheyenne, Kiowa, Lincoln, Yuma, and Phillips counties — baseball hail, damaged glass, and agricultural hits. Do not send the same crew to Lubbock this afternoon and Eads this morning without checking which county actually has a warning now.

    Just hit

    Sunday afternoon’s High Plains Slight Risk and Watch 674 are closed. The verified story there is large hail, not a tornado. Southwest Missouri trees, Illinois wind, Ohio–West Virginia overnight trees and flash-flood warnings, and scattered Southeast wind reports are the other closed tickets. Tropical Storm Fay is not a U.S. land story.

    Pulse table

    RegionMain threatsSPC / NWS levelStatus this morning
    KY / WV / VA / central AppalachiansIsolated damaging wind 50–60 mph, lightningSPC MarginalAfternoon pulse; no watch
    MS / AL / GA / western CarolinasIsolated wind, wet microburstsSPC MarginalDiurnal; no watch
    Texas South Plains / CaprockIsolated large hail, severe gustsSPC MarginalLate afternoon–evening
    Eastern Colorado High PlainsBaseball hail, glass, cropWatch 674 expiredJust-hit / aftermath
    SW Missouri / Illinois / SW OhioTrees, lines, isolated structuralLSRs overnightJust-hit
    SE Ohio / north-central WVTrees, flash flood leftoverOvernight FFWs expired or expiringAftermath / check county
    Atlantic vs. U.S. mainlandFay near the Azores; no U.S. formationNHC TWOQuiet on the mainland

    What this means for restoration teams

    Fifty to sixty miles an hour is roof, siding, gutter, and tree-on-structure work. Last night’s Colorado hail is a glass and roof-inspection desk in a handful of High Plains counties, not a regional CAT. Ohio and West Virginia water from overnight flash-flood warnings is extraction and a 24–48 hour mold clock where water entered. Do not staff today’s Marginal as if Watch 674 were still up.

    Property owners should photograph damage in daylight if it is safe, call the carrier, and start extraction the same day if water is inside. Turn around, don’t drown on leftover high water in southeast Ohio and north-central West Virginia.

    What this is not

    This is not a Slight Risk day, not a live watch, and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. The work today, if it verifies, will be scattered: a wind swath through a Kentucky or West Virginia county, a hailer on the Caprock, leftover trees from Sunday night. That is the local-storm pattern this desk should staff.

    Looking ahead

    The next Day 1 outlook is scheduled by 1630 UTC. SPC Day 2 is also Marginal. Day 3 is currently no severe thunderstorms. Watch the afternoon Storm Tracker update rather than assuming this morning’s Marginal is the last line of the week.

    Sources and how to verify

    Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center Sep 21, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook (Smith/Mead, 0733 AM CDT); SPC current watches page updated 1136 UTC Monday with no valid watches and most recently issued Watch 674; SPC preliminary local storm reports for 20260920 1200 UTC through 20260921 1159 UTC; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook page; National Hurricane Center Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook 800 AM EDT Monday; National Weather Service warning text already logged on this desk for southeast Ohio and north-central West Virginia.

    Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watch, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay. Prior desk: Sunday, September 20 storm updates — Oklahoma and High Plains Slight Risk.

    Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

  • Storm Updates: Oklahoma and High Plains Slight Risk — Sunday, September 20, 2026

    This is a live Sunday afternoon snapshot of U.S. local-storm activity as of Sunday, September 20, 2026. The organized pulse is still the Storm Prediction Center Slight Risk over central and eastern Oklahoma and from eastern Colorado into far western Kansas. As of 2013 UTC, no convective watches are valid. Overnight Severe Thunderstorm Watches 670, 671, and 672 have expired. Restoration exposure this afternoon and evening is damaging wind and large hail on the Oklahoma and High Plains Slight Risk, leftover interior water where Midwest and Ohio Valley cells trained last night, and a local Florida flash-flood polygon that is not the national headline.

    These are county- and ZIP-scale thunderstorms, not a mainland hurricane landfall. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

    What is live this afternoon

    The SPC 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook, issued 0244 PM CDT Sunday, September 20, 2026 and valid 202000Z–211200Z, holds a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of central and eastern Oklahoma and from eastern Colorado into far western Kansas. The official summary: thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and large hail remain possible this afternoon and evening across those two corridors. Isolated severe gusts and hail are also possible in parts of the southern Plains and from the Ozarks eastward into the Ohio Valley. The 20Z update said the forecast remained generally on track with only minor adjustments.

    No watches are currently valid. The most recently issued watch was Severe Thunderstorm Watch 672. Mesoscale Discussion 2316, issued 0149 PM CDT Sunday and valid through 2115 UTC, covers northeast and eastern Colorado, far western Kansas, and southwest Nebraska. Language is severe potential, watch possible, with a 60 percent watch-issuance probability. Isolated storms over northeast Colorado, large hail probable, a few severe gusts possible by early evening. Most probable peak hail size in that MD is 1.50 to 2.50 inches. Most probable peak wind gust 55 to 70 mph.

    The Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, updated 1602 UTC Sunday and valid 16 UTC September 20 through 12 UTC September 21, keeps Slight Risks over portions of the Midwest and Ohio Valley and over the northern High Plains. The 16Z update trimmed the northern edge of the Midwest Slight (northern Illinois, southern Iowa, northern Missouri) and kept the better confidence farther east into the Upper Ohio Valley, where antecedent 24-hour totals already ran 1 to 2 inches areal average and 3 to 4 inches locally. A separate Slight pocket remains focused over southwest South Dakota and the Black Hills on upslope flow and Saturday’s leftover wet ground.

    Hotspot 1 — Central and eastern Oklahoma

    This is one of the two Slight Risk contours on the 2000 UTC outlook. A surface low sits over central Oklahoma along a cold front that arcs from northeast Oklahoma into southwest Oklahoma and back through the central Texas Panhandle. A shortwave trough is moving into western Oklahoma. The airmass ahead of the front is warm, moist, and moderately buoyant. Mid-level flow is stronger across Oklahoma than across Texas, which is why the organized severe corridor is drawn here rather than over the more disorganized Texas cells. Primary threat language is damaging gusts of 55 to 65 mph, with hail in the stronger cores.

    Cities and counties to watch: Tulsa, Broken Arrow, Muskogee, Shawnee, Ardmore, and the rest of the central and eastern Oklahoma Slight contour. Oklahoma City sits near the western edge of the broader risk language even when it is not the center of the Slight.

    Restoration read: wind and hail first. Stage tarps, generators, and roof tarping before dark. Photograph roofs in remaining daylight only if it is safe. Do not treat this as a statewide outbreak. It is a corridor.

    Hotspot 2 — Eastern Colorado into far western Kansas and southwest Nebraska

    This is the other Slight Risk plus MD 2316. Easterly low-level flow north of the surface front is holding 50s F dewpoints across eastern Colorado. Heating plus cool temperatures aloft support moderate destabilization. Storm coverage is expected to stay isolated to widely scattered because of cooler surface temperatures and leftover inhibition, but any storm that matures is favored to be supercellular. Primary severe hazard on the outlook is large hail of 1 to 2.5 inches. Isolated severe gusts are possible. Some lingering severe risk may develop over southeast Colorado late this evening and spread into the Oklahoma Panhandle overnight.

    Cities and counties to watch: the Palmer Divide and northeast Colorado, Lamar and the High Plains counties, far western Kansas, and southwest Nebraska where left-split cells can throw hail. Local Severe Thunderstorm Warnings already fired this afternoon in Dundy and Chase Counties, Nebraska.

    Restoration read: hail and isolated wind. This is a few strong cells, not a line. Staff it as spot jobs — broken shingles, cracked skylights, vehicle and siding hits — not a regional CAT.

    Hotspot 3 — Midwest and Ohio Valley flood leftovers, plus a Florida polygon

    WPC keeps a Slight excessive-rainfall risk on last night’s rain axis from central Illinois and east-central Missouri into the Upper Ohio Valley. Antecedent ground is already wet. Training or backbuilding later this evening and overnight could add 2 to 4 inches in the better cores. River and flash-flood products this morning and midday covered eastern Iowa (Quad Cities, Cedar Rapids, Kalona and the English River), the Parkersburg–Athens Ohio River corridor, Charleston and Huntington, Washington County, Pennsylvania, and eastern Ohio counties including Belmont, Guernsey, Harrison, Jefferson, and Tuscarawas. The Des Plaines River near Russell, Illinois, has a new Flood Warning for minor flooding from this afternoon until further notice.

    A separate local Flash Flood Warning this afternoon covers southwestern Suwannee County, Florida, with 2 to 3 inches already down. That is a North Florida urban and low-water-crossing desk, not the Slight Risk story.

    Restoration read: yesterday’s water is already a ticket in Iowa, Ohio, West Virginia, and western Pennsylvania. Today’s new water, if it verifies, is more of the same corridor plus a standalone Florida polygon. Do not send the Oklahoma hail crew to the Ohio River without checking which county still has a warning.

    Just hit

    Saturday night’s Severe Thunderstorm Watches 670 (Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas), 671 (Colorado, Kansas), and 672 (Kansas, Missouri) are closed. Those are already on the books as wind and hail tickets across the central Plains and Lower Missouri Valley. Overnight and this morning’s Flash Flood Warnings along the Iowa–Illinois line and the Ohio River are extraction and drying work, not a new watch. This afternoon’s new work, if it verifies, is the Oklahoma wind corridor and High Plains hail cells under MD 2316.

    Pulse table

    RegionMain threatsSPC / NWS levelStatus this afternoon
    Central / eastern OklahomaDamaging wind 55–65 mph, hailSPC SlightLive outlook; no watch
    Eastern CO / far western KS / SW NELarge hail 1–2.5 in, isolated severe gustsSPC Slight + MD 2316 (watch possible)Isolated supercells favored
    Ozarks to Ohio ValleyIsolated damaging gusts, leftover waterSPC Marginal; WPC Slight floodScattered plus aftermath
    Northern High Plains / Black HillsFlash flood on wet groundWPC Slight excessive rainfallAfternoon–overnight cells
    SW Suwannee County, FLLocal flash floodNWS Flash Flood WarningStandalone polygon
    Atlantic / EPAC vs. U.S. landNo U.S. landfalling tropical cycloneNHC: Fay far east-Atlantic; Odalys and TD 17-E over open PacificQuiet on the mainland coast

    What this means for restoration teams

    Oklahoma wind at 55 to 65 mph is roof, siding, gutter, and tree-on-structure work. High Plains hail of 1 to 2.5 inches is shingle and auto work in a few counties, not a multi-state CAT. Midwest and Ohio Valley water from Saturday night is already inside some buildings. That mold clock started this morning, not this evening.

    For teams near the Oklahoma Slight or the Colorado–Kansas MD: stage before the first warning, not after. Property owners should photograph damage in daylight if it is safe, call the carrier, and start extraction the same night if water is inside. For teams on the Iowa and Ohio River leftovers: you are already on yesterday’s tickets. Check which gauge is still in flood before you drive.

    What this is not

    This is not a regional derecho and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. Tropical Storm Fay is in the far eastern Atlantic near 34.4°N, 32.7°W and is not a U.S. land threat this afternoon. Tropical Storm Odalys and Tropical Depression Seventeen-E are over the eastern Pacific, well offshore. The work tonight, if it comes, will be scattered: a wind swath through an Oklahoma county, hail on the High Plains, leftover water in an Iowa or Ohio River town. That is the local-storm pattern this desk should staff.

    Looking ahead

    Monday’s SPC Day 2 Convective Outlook, issued 1137 AM CDT Sunday, is a Marginal Risk from Mississippi to the central and southern Appalachians. Official summary: a few instances of damaging gusts are possible across the central and southern Appalachians to northern and central Mississippi. Coverage is isolated to widely scattered. Shear is expected to stay weak. Watch the next Storm Tracker update rather than assuming today’s Slight is Monday’s story.

    Sources and how to verify

    Primary sources, all date-stamped Sunday, September 20, 2026: NOAA Storm Prediction Center 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook; SPC current watches page (no watches valid as of 2013 UTC); Mesoscale Discussion 2316; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook updated 1602 UTC; National Hurricane Center public page as of 2120 UTC; National Weather Service watch/warning text including Pittsburgh, Charleston, Chicago, La Crosse, and Tallahassee products. Morning desk for this calendar day: Storm Updates: Oklahoma and High Plains Slight Risk — Sunday, September 20, 2026 (Morning).

    Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watches, MDs, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay.

    Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

  • Storm Updates: Idaho–Utah Marginal, Dakotas Flood Slight — Thursday, September 17, 2026

    This is a live Thursday afternoon snapshot of U.S. local-storm activity as of Thursday, September 17, 2026. The Storm Prediction Center 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook holds a Marginal Risk of isolated severe wind gusts and hail this afternoon and evening over parts of Idaho and Utah and a small part of the central High Plains. No convective watches are valid. Mesoscale Discussion 2304 covers southern and central Idaho with a 20 percent chance of a watch. The Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook remains the organized ticket: Slight Risk over portions of the north-central Plains and Midwest and over the southwestern U.S. There is no named tropical cyclone in the Atlantic, eastern Pacific, or central Pacific.

    These are county- and ZIP-scale thunderstorms and flash-flood pulses, not a mainland hurricane landfall. Restoration exposure this afternoon is isolated hail and wind if cells verify over the Snake River Plain and Wasatch Front, plus water from the Wyoming Front Range across South Dakota into southwest Minnesota and leftover Southwest terrain. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

    What is live this afternoon

    SPC issued the 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook at 0247 PM CDT, valid 172000Z–181200Z. Forecasters Chalmers and Weinman made no changes from the midday package. Headline: thunderstorms with isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be possible over parts of the Intermountain West this afternoon and evening. A few strong to severe gusts may also occur across portions of the central High Plains. Risk-area population centers listed by SPC include Salt Lake City, West Valley City, Provo, West Jordan, and Orem. Categorical risk is Marginal only. No Slight Risk. No tornado probabilities in the 2000 UTC package. The Ohio Valley Marginal from Wednesday remains off the map.

    Current convective watches: none. SPC watch page last updated 2059 UTC Thursday: no watches currently valid. Most recently issued watch remains Severe Thunderstorm Watch 669, already expired. Do not treat 669 as a live product.

    MCD 2304, issued 0246 PM CDT and valid 1946Z–2215Z, covers parts of southern and central Idaho. Concerning: severe potential, watch unlikely. Probability of watch issuance: 20 percent. Summary: the risk of a few severe storms capable of producing large hail and severe wind gusts will increase through the remainder of the afternoon. Most probable peak wind gust 55–70 mph. Most probable peak hail size 1.00–1.75 inches. Offices tagged: Pocatello, Missoula, Boise. By late afternoon the live MD list showed no mesoscale discussions currently in effect; treat 2304 as the latest issued discussion, not a standing watch.

    WPC Day 1 excessive-rainfall language valid 12Z Thursday through 12Z Friday still has two Slight Risk corridors. One is a high-end Slight across much of South Dakota, expanding toward Sioux Falls and into southwestern Minnesota and northwest Iowa, and west-southwest to the Cheyenne, Wyoming region east of the Laramie Range. The other holds Slight Risk over New Mexico and eastern Arizona into the San Juans and western Colorado, with Marginal coverage into the Salt Lake corridor and southeastern Idaho. Wednesday’s Moderate Risk over southern and central Arizona is aftermath, not a live upgrade.

    Hotspot 1 — Southern and central Idaho into northern Utah

    Morning water vapor showed an upper low over northern California with a band of strong flow aloft and embedded shortwave troughs across Nevada into Utah and Idaho. Strong heating was expected to aid scattered thunderstorms from southern Idaho into northern Utah by mid-afternoon. Sufficient vertical shear is present for rotating updrafts capable of large hail and gusty or damaging winds. Coverage is limited. SPC still expects one or two severe cells later today, mainly over the eastern Snake River Plain. The 18Z Boise sounding in MCD 2304 sampled steep deep-layer lapse rates and an elongating, mostly straight hodograph with about 30–40 kt of cloud-layer shear. Cells first. Small clusters later if outflow organizes.

    Overnight LSRs already put quarter-size hail at Huntington in Emery County and at East Carbon and Sunnyside in Carbon County. That is the same Salt Lake City forecast office that owns this afternoon’s Utah cells.

    Restoration read: hail first if discrete cells fire over the Snake River Plain, Boise, Pocatello, or the Wasatch Front. Wind second if storms cluster. Stage roof and auto-glass survey capacity before the first warning, not after. Flash-flood risk on this corridor is Marginal to isolated, not the organized Dakotas ticket.

    Hotspot 2 — Dakotas water corridor and the High Plains wind overlay

    Remnants of a weak tropical low tracked northeast across the Four Corners this morning. Ample moisture and weak ascent support considerable clouds and scattered thunderstorms over the Colorado mountains and southern Wyoming, spreading east into eastern Colorado and western Nebraska and Kansas. High-based convection poses a risk of locally damaging wind gusts. Daytime heating is the limiter because of lingering cloud cover. That is the SPC Marginal overlay: isolated gusts, not a Slight Risk wind event.

    WPC is more organized here than SPC. A tropical-origin shortwave ejecting out of Arizona pivots through the central Rockies and into the northern Plains tonight. Precipitable-water anomalies approach the 95th–99th percentile from South Dakota into southern Minnesota by the end of the period. Discussion language includes 2–4 inches, locally higher, with HREF neighborhood probabilities of greater than 2 inches at 50–80 percent across a large High Plains swath. The centroid of greater-than-3-inch probabilities sits just east and southeast of Rapid City into Badlands National Park. The Slight Risk was expanded east toward Sioux Falls for the last 6–8 hours of the forecast.

    Restoration read: water first from the Wyoming Front Range across western and central South Dakota into southwest Minnesota and northwest Iowa tonight into Friday morning. Wind second if High Plains clusters organize. Do not send one crew to both a Cheyenne gust and a Rapid City wash without checking which county has a warning now.

    Hotspot 3 — Southwest terrain leftover plus Ohio just-hit

    The shortwave that drove Wednesday’s Arizona Moderate flood risk is leaving. WPC still keeps a Slight Risk over New Mexico and eastern Arizona into the San Juans and Sacramentos. Guidance still prints 1–3 inches on the Sangre de Cristos, San Juans, and interior New Mexico terrain. Sacramento Mountains burn-scar sensitivity remains in the discussion as locally Moderate impacts embedded inside a higher-end Slight. That is runoff on ground that already took water Wednesday, not a new Moderate upgrade.

    Ohio is off today’s SPC Marginal. It is the just-hit desk. Overnight LSRs from the 16/1200Z–17/1159Z window include multiple trees down in Versailles and Piqua, a snapped hardwood onto a home awning in Darke County, barn sheet-metal loss and a blown silo near West Alexandria in Preble County, and trees and wires southeast of Mansfield in Richland County. NWS Cleveland had severe thunderstorm warnings into mid-evening Wednesday for Richland, Ashland, Holmes, and Knox counties. Those products are expired. The trees are still on the lines.

    Just hit

    SPC preliminary storm reports for the current 17/1200Z–18/1159Z cycle show no tornado, hail, or wind reports as of this afternoon desk. That is expected. The Intermountain and High Plains threats are still an afternoon and evening problem.

    The last 24-hour ticket pile sits on the prior cycle (16/1200Z–17/1159Z): no tornadoes. Hail: 1.00 inch at Huntington, Emery County, Utah; 1.00 inch at East Carbon and Sunnyside, Carbon County, Utah; 1.00 to 1.25 inches near Linn Creek, Camden County, Missouri, with two-foot-diameter limbs down. Wind: downed power lines in Mesa, Maricopa County, Arizona; trees in Versailles, Darke County, and Piqua and Lockington, Miami County, Ohio; a snapped pole and large limb near Broken Arrow, Tulsa County, Oklahoma; a power line and a condo-garage roof near Osage Beach and Linn Creek, Missouri; barn roofing and a grain silo near West Alexandria, Preble County, Ohio; trees and wires southeast of Mansfield.

    This morning’s Storm Tracker already covered the same outlook family at 1300 UTC. This afternoon desk updates to the 2000 UTC package, adds MCD 2304, and confirms still-zero watches and still-zero LSRs on today’s cycle.

    Pulse table

    RegionMain threatsSPC / NWS / WPC levelStatus this afternoon
    Southern / central ID into northern UTIsolated hail and severe gusts; possible small clustersSPC Marginal; MCD 2304 watch unlikelyLive afternoon–evening cells
    NE CO / western NE / High PlainsIsolated severe gustsSPC MarginalLate afternoon clusters if heating punches
    WY Front Range / SD / SW MN / NW IAFlash flood, 2–4″ swathsWPC Slight (high-end over SD)Today’s organized water ticket
    NM / E AZ / San Juans / SacramentosFlash flood, burn-scar debris flowWPC Slight; leftover from Wed ModerateDiurnal terrain cells
    Western / north-central OHTrees, wires, barn and roof damageLSRs overnight; warnings expiredJust-hit
    Emery / Carbon UT; Camden MOQuarter to half-dollar hailLSRs overnightJust-hit / same offices own today’s risk
    Atlantic / Gulf vs. U.S. mainlandNo named cycloneNHC: no tropical cyclonesQuiet on the mainland coast

    What this means for restoration teams

    Isolated severe hail on the Snake River Plain and Wasatch Front is a roof and auto-glass survey ticket if cells verify over Boise, Pocatello, Salt Lake, or Provo. Isolated High Plains gusts are tree, siding, and gutter work in a thin corridor. The organized ticket today is still water from the Wyoming Front Range across South Dakota into southwest Minnesota and northwest Iowa tonight. Flash flooding on leftover Arizona–New Mexico terrain is wet drywall and a same-night extraction clock if water is inside a structure that already took rain Wednesday. Ohio trees-on-wires from last night are a separate staffing problem from this afternoon’s West.

    For teams near the Intermountain Marginal: stage before mid-afternoon local. Property owners should photograph damage in daylight if it is safe, call the carrier, and start extraction the same night if water is inside. Turn around, don’t drown on High Plains and Southwest washes.

    What this is not

    This is not a Slight Risk severe day, not a live convective watch, and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. MCD 2304 is watch-unlikely, not a watch. NHC reports no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, eastern Pacific, or central Pacific as of this afternoon. The work, if it verifies, will be scattered: a hail swath through an Idaho or Utah county, a gust cluster on the High Plains, and heavier rain over South Dakota terrain tonight.

    Looking ahead

    SPC Day 2 (Friday, 1730 UTC package) holds Marginal Risk of isolated severe storms across parts of Idaho and Utah, Nebraska and Iowa, and the Piedmont of the Carolinas into north Georgia. Population centers listed on that outlook include Charlotte, Atlanta, Omaha, Lincoln, and Greensboro. WPC’s Day 1 water corridor over the Dakotas is the bridge into the Plains Marginal. The next Storm Tracker update should re-check the 0100 UTC Day 1 outlook and any new watches rather than assuming this afternoon’s Marginal stays the last word.

    Sources and how to verify

    Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center Sep 17, 2026 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook (Chalmers/Weinman); Mesoscale Discussion 2304 (Weinman/Hart); current convective watches (none valid; last issued Watch 669); SPC preliminary storm reports for the 20260917 cycle and 20260916 cycle; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (Kleebauer); National Hurricane Center Tropical Weather Outlook, September 17, 2026; NWS warning text archive including Cleveland OH overnight products now expired.

    Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watch, MD, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay. Morning desk for this calendar day: Storm Updates: Intermountain West + High Plains Marginal, Dakotas Flood Slight — Thursday, September 17, 2026 (Morning).

    Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

  • Storm Updates: Upper Ohio Valley–Central New York Slight Risk — Sunday, September 13, 2026

    This is a live Sunday afternoon snapshot of local storm-type events across the United States as of Sunday, September 13, 2026. The Storm Prediction Center 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook holds a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms from the upper Ohio Valley into central New York, covering about 43,500 square miles and 8.3 million people, with Pittsburgh, Rochester, Akron, Syracuse, and Canton inside the higher contour. A broader Marginal Risk wraps Columbus, Cincinnati, Buffalo, Dayton, and Albany. No convective watches and no mesoscale discussions were in effect on the afternoon check. Restoration exposure this window is wind-driven roof and tree work on the Ohio–Pennsylvania–New York corridor, leftover Saturday water in the Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic, and a separate WPC flood Slight over southern New England plus eastern Kansas into western Missouri.

    These are county- and ZIP-scale thunderstorms, not a mainland hurricane landfall. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

    What is live this afternoon

    SPC upgraded portions of the corridor to Slight earlier Sunday with the 1630 UTC package and held that upgrade in the 2000 UTC update issued 2:57 p.m. CDT by forecaster Wendt. The language is isolated to widely scattered severe storms this afternoon and evening, mainly damaging wind along a cold front moving east through the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and Northeast. Deep-layer shear of 35–45 kt is enough for organized bands, short bowing segments, and a few initial supercells. Hail is secondary because lapse rates aloft are only about 6–6.5 C/km. Storms are expected to weaken with eastward extent this evening as nocturnal cooling and a less unstable airmass take over.

    As of the afternoon product cycle, SPC listed no watches valid (most recent issued watch was 667 on a prior day) and no mesoscale discussions in effect (most recent MD 2291). Today’s official LSR page covering 1200 UTC September 13 through 1159 UTC September 14 still showed no tornado, hail, or wind reports at the afternoon check — the front had not yet produced a logged severe report in that window.

    Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, valid 12 UTC September 13 through 12 UTC September 14 and issued 3:46 a.m. EDT, keeps Slight Risk areas over portions of the Northeast and the Central Plains. Southern New England language focuses on Long Island and coastal Connecticut and Rhode Island, with the threat expected to exit late afternoon. Central Plains language favors eastern Kansas and western Missouri overnight as a low-level jet strengthens. A Marginal Risk remains over the Southern Rockies and Four Corners on monsoon moisture and already-wet soils.

    Hotspot 1 — Upper Ohio Valley into central New York

    This is the live Slight contour. SPC expects widely scattered thunderstorms along and ahead of the front from parts of Ohio into western New York by mid-afternoon, then a quick eastward sweep across the upper Ohio Valley into the Northeast. Population centers inside the Slight: Pittsburgh, Rochester, Akron, Syracuse, Canton. Marginal ring includes Columbus, Cincinnati, Buffalo, Dayton, Albany.

    Counties to watch: Allegheny, Beaver, Butler, Westmoreland, and neighboring southwest Pennsylvania counties; Summit, Stark, Portage, and adjacent northeast Ohio counties; Monroe, Livingston, Ontario, Onondaga, and neighboring western and central New York counties. Lake-effect is not the story — this is a progressive cold-front band.

    Restoration read: wind first. Stage tarps, generators, and tree crews before dark even without a watch. If a warning includes heavy rain on soils already wet from Saturday, treat the same ZIP as a water job by morning. Photograph roofs in remaining daylight only if it is safe.

    Hotspot 2 — Southern New England flood leftover plus Mid-Atlantic runoff

    WPC’s Slight Risk for excessive rainfall over the Northeast is the second desk. Discussion from the 0748 UTC Sunday package: precipitable water up to about 2.25 inches, efficient rainfall rates, and concern for Long Island and coastal Connecticut and Rhode Island through mid-to-late morning into afternoon before the axis exits offshore. Flash Flood Warning text earlier Sunday covered eastern Worcester County, Maryland, including Ocean City and Berlin, with 1–2 inches already down and rates near 2 inches in 30 minutes. That warning window closed in the morning; the afternoon desk treats it as runoff and urban ponding unless a new warning fires.

    Saturday’s heavy rain is still in Appalachian channels. Overnight and early-Sunday Flood Warning and Flash Flood Statement text from Charleston, West Virginia, and Pittsburgh referenced lingering high water after 1–6 inches Saturday in pieces of Kanawha, Clay, Braxton, Gilmer, Lewis, Harrison, Doddridge, and southern Clarion County, Pennsylvania. Those are aftermath tickets, not a new Slight Risk.

    Restoration read: southern New England is today’s water if cells trained this morning. West Virginia and western Pennsylvania are yesterday’s water still in the street and the basement. Do not send the same crew to both stories without checking which county actually has a warning now.

    Hotspot 3 — High Plains scatter and Central Plains flood overnight

    SPC keeps isolated strong-to-severe storms possible across parts of the central and northern High Plains this afternoon and evening — southern Wyoming, northeast Colorado, and the Nebraska Panhandle in a modest upslope regime — then elevated storms increasing over western and central South Dakota toward the mid-Missouri Valley late tonight. Hail and gusts are the local threats, not a watch-scale line.

    WPC’s second Slight Risk sits on the Central Plains overnight. Guidance favors eastern Kansas and western Missouri, including low-to-moderate chances of more than 3 inches near the Kansas City metro in some 00Z HREF members. That is a Monday-morning extraction desk if cells train on the front.

    Restoration read: High Plains is isolated hail and wind. Kansas City–eastern Kansas–western Missouri is the overnight flood watch list, not this afternoon’s Ohio Valley wind list.

    Just hit

    Saturday’s (September 12, 1200 UTC through Sunday 1159 UTC) preliminary LSRs are already tickets. Kansas carried the hardest wind: Chanute Martin Johnson Airport logged 84 mph at 0545 UTC Sunday; Chanute dispatch reported power outages and tree branches; utility poles went down near Galesburg in Neosho County. Clark County, Kansas, mesonet gusts reached 75 mph near Acres. Cherokee County, Kansas, saw a hangar roof collapse near Hallowell and 70 mph estimated at West Mineral. Perryton, Texas, had 6–8 power poles snapped south of town and an uprooted tree. Kingfisher County, Oklahoma, reported snapped wooden poles and 60–70 mph gusts near Cashion.

    Hail: golf-ball (1.75 inch) at Beatrice, Nebraska, and Randall, Kansas; 2.00 inch near Coldwater and Wilmore in south-central Kansas; walnut-size at Holdrege, Nebraska. Pennsylvania already had tree-and-wire work Saturday afternoon across Washington, Allegheny, Jefferson, Westmoreland, Indiana, and Greene counties — including a tree on a house near Spraggs. A landspout was reported near Palm Coast, Florida, and an EF-0 survey was completed east of Spring Grove, Virginia. Those are closed survey items, not today’s Slight Risk.

    Pulse table

    RegionMain threatsSPC / NWS levelStatus this afternoon
    Upper OH Valley / SW PA / central NYDamaging wind, lightning, isolated hailSPC Slight (2000 UTC)Live outlook — no watch
    Columbus–Cincinnati–Buffalo ringIsolated strong windSPC MarginalConditional
    Long Island / coastal CT–RI–SE MAFlash flood, urban pondingWPC Slight EROWinding down late afternoon
    Eastern KS / western MOTraining heavy rain overnightWPC Slight EROTonight into Monday morning
    High Plains / western SDIsolated hail and gustsSPC isolated / MarginalAfternoon–overnight scatter
    Four Corners / S RockiesHeavy rain on wet soilsWPC MarginalMonsoon-style cells
    Saturday KS–OK–TX / PA treesWind, hail, trees, polesLSRs loggedAftermath / tickets
    Atlantic / Gulf vs. U.S. mainlandNo landfalling tropical cycloneNHC quiet AtlanticQuiet

    What this means for restoration teams

    A Slight Risk without a watch is still a staffing problem. The corridor from northeast Ohio through southwest Pennsylvania into Rochester and Syracuse can produce a few 58–65 mph gust swaths, trees on service drops, and isolated hail even if coverage stays widely scattered. Saturday’s 84 mph Chanute gust and snapped poles in Neosho, Cherokee, Kingfisher, and Ochiltree counties are already claims. Southern New England and Appalachian runoff is extraction and drying, not a new wind line.

    For teams in the Slight: stage before the first warning, not after. Property owners should photograph damage in daylight if it is safe, call the carrier, and start extraction the same night if water is inside. Turn around on flooded Appalachian and Delmarva roads — Saturday and early-Sunday warnings already documented closed pavement.

    What this is not

    This is not a regional derecho and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. The National Hurricane Center afternoon page showed no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic. Tropical Storm Norbert was moving west over the open eastern Pacific near 18.2°N, 132.7°W with 50 mph winds — not a U.S. land threat. Do not invent a watch that SPC has not issued. The work today, if it verifies, will be scattered: a wind swath through an Ohio, Pennsylvania, or New York county, leftover flood tickets from Saturday, and a possible overnight rain pulse toward Kansas City.

    Looking ahead

    SPC Day 2 Convective Outlook issued 12:29 p.m. CDT Sunday (valid 12 UTC Monday through 12 UTC Tuesday) places a Slight Risk from southeast Nebraska into western Iowa. Summary language: scattered strong to severe thunderstorms late Monday afternoon into early evening near Omaha, Lincoln, Des Moines, Council Bluffs, and Ames, with a Marginal ring toward Sioux City, Waterloo, and Grand Island. That is Monday’s desk. Tonight’s Ohio Valley–New York band should weaken after dark.

    Sources and how to verify

    Primary sources dated Sunday, September 13, 2026: NOAA Storm Prediction Center 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook; SPC current watches page (none valid); SPC current mesoscale discussions page (none in effect); SPC today’s storm reports (none received in the 13/1200–14/1159 UTC window at afternoon check) and September 12 LSR list; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook updated 0748 UTC; National Hurricane Center public page (no Atlantic tropical cyclones; TS Norbert over the eastern Pacific); National Weather Service watches/warnings text feed.

    Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watch, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay. Morning desk for this calendar day: Storm Updates: Ohio Valley–Northeast Marginal Risk, Kansas Wind Aftermath — Sunday, September 13, 2026 (Morning).

    Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

  • Storm Updates: Kansas–Oklahoma Watch 667, Ohio Valley Flood Pulse — Saturday, September 12, 2026

    This is a live Saturday afternoon snapshot of local storm-type events across the United States as of Saturday, September 12, 2026. The organized pulse is on the south-central Plains. The Storm Prediction Center holds a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of the south-central Plains into the Ozarks, and Severe Thunderstorm Watch 667 is in effect from 3:45 p.m. until 10:00 p.m. CDT for portions of southwest Kansas, Oklahoma, and the Texas Panhandle. Farther east, the Weather Prediction Center keeps a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic. Tropical Storm Norbert is over the open eastern Pacific and is not a U.S. land threat.

    These are county- and ZIP-scale thunderstorms, not a mainland hurricane landfall. Restoration exposure this afternoon and evening is wind-driven roof and siding work, isolated large hail, trees on service drops, and interior water where cells train over already-wet ground in the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

    What is live this afternoon

    Watch 667 covers southwest Kansas, Oklahoma, and the Texas Panhandle through 10:00 p.m. CDT. Primary threat language from SPC: scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80 mph, plus isolated very large hail to 2 inches. Tornado probability in the watch is low. The 2000 UTC Day 1 outlook, issued 3:00 p.m. CDT Saturday, expanded the Slight Risk southwest across parts of western Oklahoma after satellite showed agitated cumulus and isolated initiation along a remnant outflow. Temperatures of 102–104°F south of the wind shift support severe-caliber downdrafts if clusters organize.

    Mesoscale Discussion 2286, issued 2:52 p.m. CDT, flagged southern Kansas into northwest Oklahoma as watch-likely before the watch went up. Most probable peak gusts in that discussion were 65–80 mph; most probable peak hail 1.50–2.50 inches. MD 2287 followed on a severe-potential, watch-possible track as storms tried to fill in.

    WPC’s Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, valid 12 UTC Saturday through 12 UTC Sunday, keeps a Slight Risk over the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic. That language is flood first, wind second: 2.0–2.25 inch precipitable water along I-95 from Richmond toward Philadelphia, with a higher-end Slight pocket in the upper Ohio Valley where flash-flood guidance is under 2 inches in northern West Virginia and western Pennsylvania. Central Plains stay Marginal for excessive rain. Florida remains in a localized urban-flood environment on 2.0–2.25 inch precipitable water.

    The official SPC Local Storm Report list for the 12 UTC Saturday through 12 UTC Sunday window was still empty as of mid-afternoon, which is expected this early in the convective day. SPC’s same-day report-trend plot on the homepage was already counting preliminary tornado, wind, and hail ticks as storms started to fire. Treat those as unofficial until they land on the LSR page.

    Hotspot 1 — Southwest Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas Panhandle

    This is the live watch. Storms are expected to increase and intensify near an outflow boundary across Oklahoma and near a front across Kansas and the eastern Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. SPC notes a narrow corridor of 2,000–3,500 J/kg MLCAPE, 30–40 kt of deep-layer shear, and steep mid-level lapse rates that support isolated 2-inch hail before storms cluster. Higher-based convection in the hot mixed layer favors wind over tornadoes.

    Cities and counties to watch: Wichita, Hutchinson, and Emporia in Kansas; Enid, Ponca City, and the Oklahoma City metro fringe; Alva to Chandler along the watch axis; Amarillo and the eastern Texas Panhandle. Neighboring offices: Dodge City, Wichita, Norman, Tulsa, Amarillo.

    Restoration read: wind and hail first. Stage tarps, generators, and glass/roof crews before dark. A 75–80 mph gust on a well-mixed 104°F afternoon is a tree-and-roof ticket, not a regional catastrophe. Photograph roofs in remaining daylight only if it is safe.

    Hotspot 2 — Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic flood pulse

    This is the water desk, not the watch desk. WPC holds a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall from the upper Ohio Valley through the Mid-Atlantic. HREF signals in the morning discussion showed moderate-to-high chances of 3-hour and 6-hour flash-flood guidance exceedance in the upper Ohio Valley, and 20–40 percent chances of 3-hour totals over 2 inches from the Richmond area late Saturday into the Delaware Valley and southern New Jersey Saturday night. The Slight Risk was extended north through eastern Pennsylvania, northern New Jersey, and into the New York City metro and lower Long Island for late Saturday night into Sunday.

    SPC keeps a Marginal Risk of isolated damaging wind with loosely organized clusters in the upper Ohio Valley this afternoon. That is secondary to the flood overlay.

    Cities and counties to watch: Pittsburgh and western Pennsylvania; northern West Virginia; Columbus–Dayton corridor on the wind-marginal fringe; Richmond, Baltimore, Philadelphia, and the I-95 urban core Saturday night.

    Restoration read: extraction and drying if cells train. Urban streets, underpasses, and small streams fail first. Do not treat this as the same story as Watch 667. Different hazard, different crew mix.

    Hotspot 3 — North Georgia leftover water and Plains scatter

    National Weather Service Peachtree City issued multiple Flash Flood Warnings this morning for Cobb, DeKalb, Douglas, Fulton, Carroll, and Paulding counties, including Atlanta, Marietta, Sandy Springs, Douglasville, and Villa Rica. Radar-indicated totals of 1–4 inches were already on the ground in those products, with additional 1–3 inches possible in the warned windows. Some of those warnings expired by mid-afternoon; the water is still in the street and in the buildings. That is already a ticket, not a new watch.

    Elsewhere, isolated strong-to-severe cells remain possible on the edges of the Slight Risk into the Ozarks and on the hot High Plains. Florida stays a local urban-flood and lightning desk on deep tropical moisture. A Flash Flood Watch remains up over the Paradise and Hagen burn scar in northeast Oregon and southeast Washington from Saturday afternoon through Sunday evening — debris-flow country, not a CAT event.

    Just hit

    Friday’s official LSR window (12 UTC September 11 through 12 UTC September 12) is the last closed book. Preliminary reports included a tornado touchdown 7 miles northeast of Artichoke, Minnesota, plus golf-ball hail near Artichoke and Alberta in Stevens County, Minnesota. Wind and hail also hit Tarrant County, Texas (Arlington–Mansfield trees, poles, and up to 1.75-inch hail), Bexar County, Texas (golf-ball hail near Converse and Kirby), and a long tree-down swath through South Carolina, Virginia, and North Carolina. Those are already claims. Today’s new work, if it verifies after 12 UTC Saturday, is Watch 667 wind and hail plus Ohio Valley–Mid-Atlantic water.

    Pulse table

    RegionMain threatsSPC / NWS levelStatus this afternoon
    SW Kansas / Oklahoma / TX PanhandleDamaging wind to 80 mph, isolated 2-inch hailSlight + Watch 667 to 10 p.m. CDTLive watch
    Ohio Valley / Mid-AtlanticFlash flood, training heavy rain, isolated windWPC Slight excessive rainfall; SPC Marginal windTonight into Sunday morning
    North Georgia metroUrban flash flood leftover from morning warningsFFW earlier todayAftermath / still in street
    Ozarks / central Plains fringeIsolated hail and windSPC MarginalScattered
    NE Oregon / SE Washington burn scarFlash flood / debris flowFlash Flood Watch through Sunday eveningLocal hydrologic
    Atlantic / Gulf vs. U.S. mainlandNo landfalling tropical cycloneQuiet on the mainland coastQuiet (Norbert open EPAC)

    What this means for restoration teams

    Wind at 65–80 mph is roof, siding, gutter, and tree-on-structure work. Isolated 2-inch hail is broken glass and pitted panels in a narrow swath, not a statewide event. Heavy rain on the Ohio Valley–Mid-Atlantic Slight Risk is wet drywall and a 24–48 hour mold clock. Atlanta-metro water from this morning is already inside some buildings.

    For teams in or near Watch 667: stage before 5 p.m. CDT, not after the first warning. Property owners should photograph damage in daylight if it is safe, call the carrier, and start extraction the same night if water is inside. Do not send the same crew to Oklahoma wind and Pittsburgh water without checking which county actually has a warning now.

    What this is not

    This is not a regional derecho and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. Tropical Storm Norbert is expected to dissipate east-southeast of Hawaii by midweek and is not a CONUS or Hawaii landfall problem on this desk. The work tonight, if it comes, will be scattered: a wind or hail swath through a Kansas or Oklahoma county, a flooded intersection where Ohio Valley or Mid-Atlantic cells train, leftover urban water in metro Atlanta. That is the local-storm pattern this desk should staff.

    Looking ahead

    Sunday, SPC Day 2 is a Marginal Risk of strong storms with small to marginally severe hail and locally damaging wind from the Ohio Valley to the Northeast. Coverage is uncertain. Monday, Day 3 adds a small Slight Risk across eastern Nebraska into western Iowa. Watch the next Storm Tracker update rather than assuming Watch 667 is the last line of the weekend.

    Sources and how to verify

    Primary sources, all date-stamped Saturday, September 12, 2026: NOAA Storm Prediction Center 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook; Severe Thunderstorm Watch 667; Mesoscale Discussions 2286 and 2287; SPC today and September 11 Local Storm Reports; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook issued 3:39 a.m. EDT; National Weather Service warning text including Peachtree City flash-flood products; National Hurricane Center public advisory on Tropical Storm Norbert (open eastern Pacific, no U.S. land threat).

    Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watch, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay. Morning desk for this calendar day: Saturday morning Storm Updates. Related desk: Friday afternoon Storm Updates.

    Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

  • Storm Updates: Southern Plains to Mid-Atlantic Marginal Risk, Ohio Valley Flood Pulse — Thursday, September 10, 2026

    This is a live Thursday afternoon snapshot of local storm-type events across the United States as of the afternoon of Thursday, September 10, 2026. The organized severe corridor has broadened and weakened relative to Wednesday’s Slight Risk and Watch 665. The Storm Prediction Center holds a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms from the southern High Plains to the southern Mid-Atlantic coast, valid through early Friday morning. The Weather Prediction Center maintains a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over the upper Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians, with Marginal flood risk farther west and southwest.

    These remain county- and ZIP-scale thunderstorms, not a mainland hurricane landfall. Restoration exposure this afternoon and evening is primarily sporadic damaging wind (roof, siding, trees on service drops), isolated large hail on the High Plains, and flash-flood water where cells train over the Ohio Valley–Appalachians corridor. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

    What is live this afternoon

    No convective watches are currently valid. The most recent watch (Severe Thunderstorm Watch 665) expired overnight. SPC’s 2000 UTC Day 1 outlook (issued 2:40 p.m. CDT) highlights sporadic damaging wind gusts from the southern Plains to the southern Mid-Atlantic this afternoon and evening, plus isolated large hail over south-central Colorado into northeast New Mexico and possibly the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles. Mesoscale Discussion 2279 (issued ~2:15 p.m. CDT) covers northeast Arkansas into parts of Tennessee and Kentucky: widely scattered storms capable of locally damaging winds, watch unlikely.

    WPC’s Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 1554 UTC) keeps a Slight Risk over the upper Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians—eastern Kentucky and West Virginia remain the core area of highest QPF and training potential. Marginal Risk areas cover parts of the Mid-Atlantic, south-central Plains/Mid-Mississippi Valley, and the Southwest (Arizona–New Mexico into southern California higher terrain).

    Hotspot 1 — Northeast Arkansas into Kentucky and Tennessee

    MD 2279 flags the live severe potential. Storms developing along and south of a surface boundary in a hot, humid air mass (upper 80s to mid-90s, PWAT near 2 inches, MLCAPE over 1,500 J/kg). Mid-level flow of 25–30 kt may support a few organized multicell clusters. Primary hazard is locally damaging wind gusts (most probable peak 55–70 mph). Coverage of severe is expected to stay limited; no watch is anticipated.

    Cities and counties to watch: Jonesboro and northeast Arkansas counties; western and central Kentucky (including areas near the Ohio River); western and middle Tennessee.

    Restoration read: Wind first—stage tarps, generators, and tree crews for late afternoon into evening. If a cell trains or produces heavy rain on the WPC slight-risk overlay, treat the same ZIP as a water job by morning.

    Hotspot 2 — Upper Ohio Valley and central Appalachians (flood)

    WPC Slight Risk of excessive rainfall centers on eastern Kentucky and West Virginia, with a minor eastward expansion into east-central West Virginia on the latest update. Anomalous precipitable water (near 99th percentile), MUCAPE >1,000 J/kg, and potential for training along a front parallel to the mid-level flow support 2–3 inch per hour rates. Soils have been drier of late, but 1-hour flash-flood guidance around 2 inches still leaves room for scattered flash flooding on urban streets, small streams, and low-lying areas.

    Some storms are expected to spill east across northern Virginia, northern Maryland, and the Mid-Atlantic I-95 corridor this evening—progressive but still moisture-laden.

    Restoration read: Water is the ticket tonight if cells train. Extraction and drying clocks start the same night water enters a structure. Photograph damage in remaining daylight only if safe.

    Hotspot 3 — Southern High Plains and residual Kansas–Missouri wind damage

    Isolated large hail remains possible over the Raton Mesa vicinity (south-central Colorado into northeast New Mexico) and portions of the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles under the Marginal Risk. Farther east, residual tree and wire damage from Wednesday evening’s line across parts of Kansas, Missouri, Ohio, and Pennsylvania is already on the books. Local Storm Reports from the overnight period include multiple 60–70+ mph gusts and tree/wire damage across southeast Kansas into west-central Missouri and scattered Ohio counties.

    Restoration read: High Plains is today’s new hail/wind cells; Kansas–Missouri–Ohio is yesterday’s wind swath still generating claims. Do not send the same crew to both stories without checking which county actually has active warnings now.

    Just hit

    Wednesday’s Severe Thunderstorm Watch 665 (northern Ohio, northwest Pennsylvania, western New York) produced multiple wind reports—trees and utility lines down across Erie, Stark, Coshocton, and neighboring counties, plus scattered Kansas and Missouri damage. Those are already tickets. Today’s new work, if it verifies, is the AR–KY–TN wind corridor plus localized flash flooding under the WPC Slight Risk.

    Pulse table

    RegionMain threatsSPC / NWS levelStatus this afternoon
    NE AR / KY / TNDamaging wind, lightningMarginal + MD 2279Live cells, watch unlikely
    Upper OH Valley / central AppalachiansFlash flood, training heavy rainWPC Slight excessive rainfallTonight into Friday morning
    Southern High Plains / Raton MesaIsolated large hail, gusty windMarginalAfternoon–evening cells
    KS / MO / OH residualTree/wire damage from WednesdayAftermathClaims already open
    Mid-Atlantic spilloverHeavy rain, localized floodWPC MarginalEvening progressive storms
    Atlantic / Gulf vs. U.S. mainlandNo landfalling hurricaneQuiet on the mainland coastQuiet

    What this means for restoration teams

    Marginal-risk wind is still roof, siding, gutter, and tree-on-structure work when a cell organizes. Hail on the High Plains is vehicle and roof dents. The Ohio Valley–Appalachians flood risk is wet drywall and a 24–48 hour mold clock if water enters. Residual Wednesday damage is already generating calls across the Ohio–Pennsylvania corridor and the Kansas–Missouri line.

    For teams near the MD 2279 area or the WPC Slight Risk: stage before the densest afternoon heating, not after the first warning. Property owners should photograph damage in daylight if safe, call the carrier, and start extraction the same night if water is inside.

    What this is not

    This is not a regional derecho and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. The work this afternoon and evening, if it comes, will be scattered: a wind swath through an Arkansas or Kentucky county, a flooded intersection where eastern Kentucky or West Virginia cells train, leftover tree damage from Wednesday’s Ohio–PA activity. That is the local-storm pattern this desk should staff.

    Looking ahead

    Friday (Day 2) the SPC has a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms from central Nebraska into the Upper Midwest late afternoon into Friday night—damaging wind, large hail, and a couple of tornadoes possible as an upper shortwave and surface front organize. Later in the period a Marginal Risk appears on Day 3. Watch the next Storm Tracker update rather than assuming today’s Marginal is the last line of the week.

    Sources and how to verify

    Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Convective Outlook (2000 UTC, September 10, 2026) and Mesoscale Discussion 2279; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 1554 UTC); SPC Local Storm Reports for the overnight and early-day period; National Weather Service warning text. Related desk: Thursday morning Storm Updates and Wednesday afternoon Storm Updates.

    Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watches, MDs, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay.

    Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

  • Storm Updates: Ohio–Pennsylvania–Western New York Slight Risk, Kansas–Missouri Flood Pulse — Wednesday, September 9, 2026

    This is a live Wednesday snapshot of local storm-type events across the United States as of the afternoon of Wednesday, September 9, 2026. The organized pulse is east of yesterday’s Iowa–Nebraska corridor. A Storm Prediction Center Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms covers central Ohio into northwest Pennsylvania and western New York, and Severe Thunderstorm Watch 665 is in effect until 11:00 p.m. EDT. Farther west, the Weather Prediction Center holds a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall from southeast Kansas into south-central Missouri, with smaller flood-risk pockets in southeast Colorado and the Arizona–New Mexico border country.

    These are county- and ZIP-scale thunderstorms, not a mainland hurricane landfall. Restoration exposure tonight is wind-driven roof and siding work, trees on service drops, isolated hail, and interior water where cells train. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

    What is live this afternoon

    Watch 665 covers western New York, northern Ohio, northwest Pennsylvania, the northern panhandle of West Virginia, and adjacent Lake Erie waters. Primary threat language is scattered damaging wind gusts to about 65 mph. SPC and NWS discussion also leaves room for a brief tornado, especially if a storm anchors on the surface boundary near the Ohio–Pennsylvania–New York border. Hail is secondary.

    A cold front still stretches on the order of a thousand miles from the Central Plains through the Great Lakes toward western New York. That is the same family of storms that wet Iowa and eastern Nebraska on Tuesday. Today the better-organized severe corridor is the eastern Great Lakes. Isolated strong-to-severe cells remain possible from the central Plains into the Ohio Valley, with a more disorganized, outflow-dominant mode west of the watch.

    Hotspot 1 — Northern Ohio, northwest Pennsylvania, western New York

    This is the live watch. Storms are expected to increase through late afternoon and evening in a warm, humid boundary layer with enough shear for organized multicells, short line segments, and transient supercells. Mesoscale discussion language from mid-afternoon: a few damaging gusts over the next few hours, brief tornado not ruled out.

    Cities and counties to watch: Cleveland, Akron, Canton, Parma, Mansfield, Lorain and Medina counties in Ohio; Erie, Crawford, Warren, Mercer, and neighboring northwest Pennsylvania counties; Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, and Allegany in western New York; the northern West Virginia panhandle.

    Restoration read: wind first. Stage tarps, generators, and tree crews before dark. If a cell trains or a warning includes heavy rain, treat the same ZIP as a water job by morning. Photograph roofs in remaining daylight only if it is safe.

    Hotspot 2 — Southeast Kansas into south-central Missouri, plus leftover Iowa water

    WPC’s Day 1 excessive-rainfall outlook keeps a Slight Risk from southeast Kansas into south-central Missouri. Guidance still supports training west-to-east overnight and 1-inch-per-hour rates in the better cores. Urban streets, low water crossings, and small streams are the first failures. A smaller slight-risk pocket sits over southeast Colorado early Thursday. Southeast Arizona into far southwest New Mexico stays in the same excessive-rainfall slight-risk language on monsoon-style cells.

    Iowa is not the new Slight Risk today, but it is still a just-hit desk. Flood warnings remain on pieces of the Des Moines system, including the Raccoon River at Des Moines and Walnut Creek. Tuesday’s rain is still in the channel. That is extraction and drying work already on the books, not a new watch.

    Restoration read: Kansas–Missouri is tonight’s flood ticket if cells stall. Iowa is yesterday’s water still moving through town. Do not send the same crew to both stories without checking which county actually has a warning now.

    Hotspot 3 — Central Plains and Southwest scatter

    Widely scattered slow-moving storms over hot, humid air in parts of Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas can still throw damaging gusts even when they stay below watch criteria. Local Severe Thunderstorm Warnings and Special Weather Statements have already fired in the Texas Panhandle and other High Plains counties this afternoon. Southern Arizona and New Mexico higher terrain can produce heavy rain and strong outflow on the same moisture axis as the WPC slight risk.

    Southwest Florida holds a marginal heavy-rain pocket in tropical moisture. That is a local urban-flood and lightning desk, not the national headline.

    Just hit

    Tuesday’s Iowa–Nebraska Slight Risk and the Kauai flood-and-outage work after Hurricane Lowell are yesterday’s tickets. Lowell continues to move away from the islands; there is no new U.S. mainland tropical landfall in the current National Hurricane Center outlook. Today’s new work, if it verifies, is the Ohio–Erie–western New York wind corridor plus localized flash flooding in the Kansas–Missouri slight-risk area.

    Pulse table

    RegionMain threatsSPC / NWS levelStatus this afternoon
    Northern OH / NW PA / western NYDamaging wind, lightning, brief tornado possibleSlight + Watch 665 to 11 p.m. EDTLive watch
    SE Kansas / south-central MissouriFlash flood, training heavy rainWPC Slight excessive rainfallTonight into Thursday morning
    Des Moines / central Iowa riversMinor river flooding from Tuesday rainFlood warningsAftermath / still in channel
    TX / OK / KS scatter + High PlainsGusty damaging wind, isolated warningsLocal SVR / SPSScattered
    SE AZ / SW NM / SE ColoradoHeavy rain, strong outflowWPC Slight (local)Afternoon–overnight cells
    Atlantic / Gulf vs. U.S. mainlandNo landfalling hurricaneQuiet on the mainland coastQuiet

    What this means for restoration teams

    Wind at 58–65 mph is roof, siding, gutter, and tree-on-structure work. A brief tornado, if one occurs, is a narrow swath — staff it as a local damage survey, not a regional event. Heavy rain on the Kansas–Missouri slight risk is wet drywall and a 24–48 hour mold clock. Iowa water is already inside some buildings from Tuesday.

    For teams in or near Watch 665: stage before 5 p.m. local, not after the first warning. Property owners should photograph damage in daylight if it is safe, call the carrier, and start extraction the same night if water is inside.

    What this is not

    This is not a regional derecho and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. The work tonight, if it comes, will be scattered: a wind swath through an Ohio or Pennsylvania county, a flooded intersection where Kansas or Missouri cells train, leftover river water in Des Moines. That is the local-storm pattern this desk should staff.

    Looking ahead

    Thursday the front slides toward the Mid-Atlantic, central Appalachians, and Ohio Valley with more wet weather and a continued flood watch in some of the same counties that take storms tonight. Later in the week, SPC language still flags another slight-risk window over parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley. Watch the next Storm Tracker update rather than assuming Watch 665 is the last line of the week.

    Sources and how to verify

    Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Convective Outlook and Severe Thunderstorm Watch 665 for Wednesday, September 9, 2026; SPC Mesoscale Discussion covering northern Ohio into northwest Pennsylvania and far western New York; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook; National Weather Service warning and flood-statement text for Cleveland, State College, Buffalo, Des Moines, Amarillo, and neighboring offices.

    Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watch, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay. Related desk: Tuesday, September 8 storm updates.

    Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

  • Storm Updates: Carolinas Slight Risk, Detroit Tornado Aftermath, Labor Day Weekend Outages — Saturday, September 5, 2026

    Storm Updates: Carolinas Slight Risk, Detroit Tornado Aftermath, Labor Day Weekend Outages — Saturday, September 5, 2026

    The Storm Prediction Center has a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening across parts of the Carolinas into southeastern Virginia. Damaging wind is the primary hazard. Isolated hail is possible. Behind that corridor, restoration crews are still working the multi-day Midwest and Mid-Atlantic wind event that produced Detroit’s first confirmed city tornado since 1997 and left tens of thousands without power heading into Labor Day weekend.

    This is a live snapshot for Saturday, September 5, 2026, built from NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center products, National Weather Service watches and warnings, and public outage reports. Conditions change fast — always verify with the National Weather Service for your county or ZIP.

    Current hotspots

    Carolinas into southeastern Virginia — Slight Risk (damaging wind primary)

    SPC’s 2000 UTC Day 1 outlook holds a Slight Risk from parts of the Carolinas into southeastern Virginia. Severe Thunderstorm Watches #656 and #657 have been in effect into the evening for large parts of central and eastern North Carolina and portions of South Carolina. Warnings have already gone out on individual cells in the Charlotte region, the Triangle, Forsyth and Nash counties, and nearby South Carolina counties.

    Main threats: scattered damaging gusts (60 mph tagged on several warnings; locally higher possible) and isolated hail near 1 to 1.5 inches. Clusters are spreading east-southeast toward the coast this evening. Isolated redevelopment behind the main band cannot be ruled out.

    Cities and metros in the risk area: Charlotte, Raleigh, Durham, Greensboro, Winston-Salem, Norfolk / Virginia Beach / Chesapeake, and upstate South Carolina communities under Watch 656.

    Southeast Michigan — just hit (tornado + wind recovery)

    Multiple rounds of severe weather hit Southeast Michigan on September 2–3. NWS Detroit confirmed an EF-0 in Lincoln Park and an EF-2 on the east side of Detroit — the first confirmed tornado in the city since July 2, 1997. A brief EF-0 also occurred in Marysville (St. Clair County) on the 2nd. Widespread straight-line wind damage, downed trees and lines, and heavy rain followed.

    Peak outages in the metro ran into the hundreds of thousands earlier in the week. As of Saturday afternoon, tens of thousands remain without power in Michigan (DTE still reporting a large remaining outage total). Restoration of service is underway through the weekend.

    Ohio Valley to Mid-Atlantic — residual wind and flood damage

    The same multi-day pattern produced a long damage swath from Michigan through Ohio, Indiana, Kentucky, Pennsylvania, and into the Mid-Atlantic. Reports included 80+ mph winds (gusts near 99 mph were cited in the Gary, Indiana area), tornadoes, flash flooding, and tree-and-wire losses. Outage totals at the peak of the event exceeded 500,000 customers across the corridor. Saturday still shows elevated outages in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and North Carolina on top of the new Carolina convection.

    Recent 24-hour damage reports include trees on homes and lines in Tennessee, North Carolina, Virginia, and Ohio counties — the tail of the same system now feeding the Carolina risk.

    Southwest — flash flood threat into Sunday

    Monsoon moisture continues to support a flash-flood threat across parts of Arizona and Utah, including terrain around Grand Canyon, Zion, and Bryce Canyon. Those parks already saw significant flash flooding in recent days. Sunday remains the day to watch for park visitors and desert-wash travel. This is not a classic wind/hail CAT pulse; it is short-duration runoff in burns scars, slot canyons, and dry washes.

    Tropics

    No Atlantic hurricane is currently threatening the U.S. mainland. The 2026 Atlantic season remains below normal through early September, with no landfalling tropical cyclone driving this weekend’s restoration load. Pacific moisture (including remnants associated with eastern Pacific systems) is a contributor to the Southwest rain threat, not a Gulf or East Coast landfall.

    What this means for restoration operators

    • Carolinas / SE Virginia today: Stage for wind, tree, and envelope failures plus isolated hail. Commercial roofs, storefront glazing, and wet interiors behind failed soffits are the first walk after dark.
    • Detroit / SE Michigan: Tornado and straight-line wind claims are already open. Photo roofs, HVAC, and contents before the next rain. Power-off buildings delay drying — treat standing interior water as a clock, not a wait-for-power problem.
    • Ohio–PA–VA swath: Tree/wire/water day. Wind-driven rain through failed envelope. Treat overland flash-flood water as Category 3 until you prove otherwise.
    • Southwest parks and desert metros Sunday: Rapid-onset wash and canyon flooding, not a wide hail swath. Board-up and water extraction on structures in low washes; do not send crews into active slot canyons.

    Sunday look

    The Slight Risk shifts south into parts of Georgia and South Carolina (Savannah, Columbia, Charleston, Augusta in the broader envelope). Flash flooding remains possible in the Southwest. Cooler air follows the front into the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic behind this weekend’s storms.

    Sources

    This is a public-data summary for restoration professionals’ situational awareness only. It is not an official forecast. Always verify with the National Weather Service, local NWS offices, and official watches/warnings. Preliminary storm reports and outage totals can change. Do not make operational decisions solely on this brief.

    Related on Tygart Media: Sept 2 storm updates · Aug 29 storm alerts. Full Daily Storm Pulse archive lives on Restoration Intel — Storm Damage.