Tag: Mississippi storms

  • Storm Updates: Gulf Isaias Warnings, Florida and Iowa Marginal — Thursday, October 8, 2026

    This is the Thursday afternoon Storm Tracker desk for October 8, 2026. The organized severe window is still small. The Storm Prediction Center 2000 UTC Day 1 convective outlook, updated 2:32 p.m. CDT, keeps a Marginal risk on the central Florida peninsula and on Iowa, and it made no changes from the late-morning forecast. No convective watches and no mesoscale discussions are in effect as of 21:14 UTC. The story that is organized is not a plains outbreak. It is Hurricane Isaias, still over the central Gulf, with hurricane and storm-surge warnings already posted for the northern Gulf Coast ahead of a late Friday or early Saturday landfall.

    Restoration exposure this afternoon is mostly prep, not tickets. Florida still has water on saturated ground. Iowa has a hail chance after dark that has not verified. The Gulf Coast has a wind, surge, tree, and roof problem that is forecast, not yet onshore. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

    What is live this afternoon

    SPC lists a Marginal risk of about 37,970 square miles and roughly 5.86 million people, with larger centers including Tampa, St. Petersburg, Des Moines, Clearwater, and Lakeland. The Florida slice is a 2 percent tornado probability on the central peninsula. The Iowa slice is a 5 percent hail probability. SPC did not draw a damaging-wind risk area on this update. The watches page, refreshed 21:14 UTC, says no watches are currently valid. The most recent archived convective watch is 676. Mesoscale discussions: none in effect as of 21:12 UTC.

    The Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, updated 0821 UTC and valid through 12 UTC Friday, holds a Marginal risk of excessive rainfall for much of the Florida peninsula. A stalled front is still the driver. North Florida soils are called fully saturated after consecutive wet days. WPC’s read is isolated flash flooding where convection fires, with a better chance over a larger city such as Tampa or Orlando, and broader ponding in poor-drainage and urban spots. Most of the rain is expected to stay light to moderate.

    National Hurricane Center Advisory 9, 4:00 p.m. CDT, placed the eye of Hurricane Isaias near 24.4N 89.3W, about 325 miles south of the Mouth of the Mississippi River. Maximum sustained winds were near 100 mph, movement northeast near 12 mph, pressure 975 mb. Hurricane-force winds extended only about 15 miles from the center. Tropical-storm-force winds extended out to about 125 miles. The forecast track still calls for landfall along the northern Gulf Coast inside the warning area late Friday or early Saturday. Isaias is not on U.S. land this afternoon.

    A Storm Surge Warning is in effect from the Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Suwannee River. A Hurricane Warning runs from Ocean Springs, Mississippi, to the Bay/Gulf County line in Florida. Tropical Storm Warnings cover the Louisiana coast from the Jefferson/Plaquemines parish line to west of Ocean Springs, and the Florida coast east of the Bay/Gulf County line to the Aucilla River. A Storm Surge Watch continues from the Suwannee River to Yankeetown. NHC surge heights, if the peak arrives at high tide: 5 to 7 feet from Ocean Springs to Indian Pass and in Mobile Bay; 4 to 6 feet from Indian Pass to the Steinhatchee River; 3 to 5 feet from the Mouth of the Mississippi to Ocean Springs and from the Steinhatchee River to the Suwannee River; 2 to 4 feet from the Suwannee River to Yankeetown. Local NWS products already in force this afternoon include a Hurricane Warning and Storm Surge Warning for Baldwin County, Alabama, with NWS Mobile citing a peak wind forecast of 50 to 65 mph and gusts to 90 mph on the Baldwin coast, and a window for tropical-storm-force wind Friday afternoon into early Saturday.

    Hotspot 1 — Northern Gulf Coast: Mississippi, Alabama, Florida Panhandle

    This is the warning desk, not a live severe-thunderstorm watch. Cities and counties inside or beside the hurricane warning include Ocean Springs and coastal Jackson County in Mississippi; Mobile and Baldwin counties in Alabama, including Daphne, Fairhope, Foley, Gulf Shores, Orange Beach, and Fort Morgan; and the Florida Panhandle west of the Bay/Gulf County line. NHC expects hurricane conditions inside the Hurricane Warning area Friday night into early Saturday, with tropical-storm conditions beginning Friday. Rainfall from Friday through the weekend is forecast at 4 to 8 inches across southern Alabama, the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend, and southwest Georgia, with localized totals up to 15 inches in banding. An isolated tornado risk is timed to begin Friday night along the Alabama and Florida Panhandle coasts and far southwestern Georgia, then continue Saturday farther inland.

    Restoration read: this is a prep window, not a claims pile. Stage tarps, generators, tree crews, and drying capacity before tropical-storm-force wind arrives Friday. Surge and saturated ground will argue the water jobs; wind and trees will argue the roof and exterior jobs. Do not treat this afternoon’s quiet radar as a cancelled landfall.

    Hotspot 2 — Central Florida peninsula

    SPC’s Florida Marginal sits on a residual frontal zone across the middle of the peninsula, generally near and north of a cloud shield, with filtered sun south of the I-4 corridor. Dewpoints are in the mid to upper 70s. Effective shear is only moderate, about 25 to 30 knots, with a veering profile. The hazard language is a brief tornado or waterspout near the front, not a wind outbreak. Population anchors named on the outlook include Tampa, St. Petersburg, Clearwater, Lakeland, and Brandon. WPC keeps the same peninsula in a Marginal excessive-rainfall risk, and it flags Tampa and Orlando if a heavier core sets up over the city.

    Restoration read: water first, and only where a cell actually sits. North Florida ground is already wet. A brief spin-up is a local warning problem, not a multi-county tarp campaign. Check the county warning before you move a crew off a standing job.

    Hotspot 3 — Iowa tonight

    The Iowa Marginal is a tonight problem, not an afternoon line. SPC expects isolated to scattered elevated storms as warm advection increases northeast of a warm front, with around 1,000 J/kg of elevated instability and effective shear increasing to 40 knots or more in the cloud-bearing layer. The hazard is a few elevated supercells late this evening into the overnight, and a few instances of marginally severe hail. Named centers on the 5 percent hail area include Des Moines, Sioux City, Waterloo, Ames, and West Des Moines. The areal outline also brushes neighboring Missouri Valley points toward Omaha and Sioux Falls, but the categorical Marginal on the 20Z update is drawn on Iowa.

    Restoration read: hail, if it verifies, is a morning roof and auto ticket, not a tonight extraction job. No hail reports are on the SPC log for this convective day yet. Do not pre-position as if a watch were already up.

    Just hit

    SPC’s storm-report page for October 8, covering 1200 UTC today through 1159 UTC Friday, showed no tornado reports, no hail reports, and no wind reports as of this afternoon pull. Yesterday’s convective day closed with no severe areas forecast on the 0100 UTC outlook. There is no new local-storm ticket stack to inherit. The work that is already on the books is Florida’s multi-day rain on saturated ground, not a fresh severe-thunderstorm damage list. Isaias has not made U.S. landfall. Advisory 9 still has the center about 325 miles south of the Mouth of the Mississippi.

    Pulse table

    RegionMain threatsSPC / NWS levelStatus this afternoon
    Northern Gulf Coast (MS / AL / FL Panhandle)Hurricane wind, storm surge, heavy rain Friday nightHurricane Warning; Storm Surge Warning; NHC Advisory 9Warnings up; center still offshore
    Central Florida peninsulaBrief tornado or waterspout; urban floodingSPC Marginal (2% tornado); WPC Marginal rainLive marginal, no watch
    IowaMarginally severe hail late tonightSPC Marginal (5% hail)Tonight, not yet reported
    North Florida flood groundRunoff on saturated soilWPC Marginal excessive rainfallOngoing water, isolated
    Rest of the CONUS severe deskNo organized wind or hail watchNo convective watches; no MDsQuiet

    What this means for restoration teams

    Split the board. Gulf Coast crews should finish exterior prep today while roads are still open. NWS Mobile’s Baldwin County product already tells residents to finish protection before tropical-storm-force wind and to leave if an evacuation order is issued. That is the operational clock, not a same-day tarp run. Florida peninsula crews stay on the water jobs that are already wet, and they answer a warning only if one is issued for their county. Iowa can wait for a hail report before anyone treats it as a roof day. A Marginal risk without a watch and without a local storm report is a planning note.

    The argument on the job, once Isaias is inland, will be wind versus water. Surge and rainfall will compete with roof and tree damage inside the same ZIP. Photograph only when it is safe. Do not send the same crew to a Florida urban-flood call and a Panhandle surge zone without checking which warning is actually in effect.

    What this is not

    This is not a derecho. SPC did not draw a wind risk area on the 20Z Day 1 outlook, and no severe thunderstorm watch is valid. This is not a U.S. landfall yet. Isaias is a hurricane over the Gulf with warnings posted for a landfall that NHC still times late Friday or early Saturday. It is not an Iowa outbreak this afternoon. The hail chance is elevated, overnight, and still unverified. No tornado, hail, or wind reports are on today’s SPC log.

    Looking ahead one day

    SPC’s 1730 UTC Day 2 outlook, issued 12:25 p.m. CDT, places a Slight risk of severe thunderstorms late Friday through Friday night across the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend and adjacent southern Alabama and southwestern Georgia, tied to tornado potential east and southeast of Isaias. The same discussion notes that later outlooks could reduce those probabilities if the track or the timing of inland destabilization changes. NHC rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, local 15, and the existing surge warning are the Friday-night restoration problem if the track holds. Iowa’s hail chance belongs to tonight, not to Friday’s Gulf landfall.

    Sources

    Informational only — not an official warning. Turn around, don’t drown. Use weather.gov and spc.noaa.gov for the county you are standing in.

  • Storm Updates: Gulf Coast Isaias Watches, Quiet Severe Pulse — Wednesday, October 7, 2026

    This is the Wednesday afternoon Storm Tracker desk for October 7, 2026. The organized severe window is closed. The Storm Prediction Center 2000 UTC Day 1 convective outlook, updated 2:41 p.m. CDT, still carries no severe thunderstorm areas, and SPC had no watches and no mesoscale discussions in effect this afternoon. The live story is not a plains outbreak. It is Tropical Storm Isaias, quickly intensifying over the southwestern Gulf of America, with hurricane and storm surge watches already up on the northern Gulf Coast for a late Friday or early Saturday landfall. Restoration exposure today is still mostly water on the Florida Peninsula. The Gulf watch corridor is the staging problem for Friday: wind, surge, trees, and roof work if the forecast holds.

    These are county-scale flood pockets and a named tropical cyclone still offshore, not a U.S. landfall this afternoon. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

    What is live this afternoon

    SPC’s 20Z update, issued by Weinman at 2:41 p.m. CDT and valid through 12Z Thursday, kept the headline: organized severe thunderstorms are unlikely across the contiguous United States through tonight. No changes were needed from the late-morning discussion. In the exit region of a midlevel jet over the Midwest, a couple of strong low-topped thunderstorms are possible across the Upper Great Lakes this afternoon and the Lower Great Lakes this evening and tonight. Enhanced flow and steep lapse rates could support a few gusts in the 40 to 50 mph range. Limited buoyancy, and increasing low-level stability over the Lower Great Lakes, kept that risk below severe probabilities.

    On the Florida Peninsula, a diffuse front and a moist profile with weak lapse rates and flow at or below 20 knots from the surface through 300 mb are limiting updraft strength. SPC said a brief tornado or waterspout near the coast cannot be ruled out, but the risk was still too low to add severe probabilities on this update. Northern New York can see isolated low-topped storms late today and tonight ahead of an amplifying trough and cold front, with gusty winds possible but not a watch.

    The Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, discussed at 5:03 a.m. EDT and valid 12Z Wednesday through 12Z Thursday, holds a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall for much of the Florida Peninsula. Precipitable water above 2.25 inches south of a slow front supports a rinse-and-repeat pattern along I-4 and generally south of I-10. Localized convection can produce heavy rain that stalls. Four Corners storms were left sub-Marginal. No Slight or Moderate flood risk is on the Day 1 map.

    National Hurricane Center Advisory 5, 4:00 p.m. CDT, places Tropical Storm Isaias near 22.7N 92.9W, about 225 miles west-northwest of Progreso, Mexico, and about 500 miles south-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi River. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph. Minimum pressure is 994 mb. Motion is east-northeast at 8 mph. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles. Isaias is forecast to become a hurricane by Thursday morning and to make landfall along the U.S. northern Gulf Coast late Friday or early Saturday. A Hurricane Watch runs from Bay St. Louis, Mississippi, to Indian Pass, Florida. A Storm Surge Watch runs from the mouth of the Mississippi River to Yankeetown, Florida. A Tropical Storm Watch covers the Jefferson/Plaquemines Parish line to west of Bay St. Louis, and east of Indian Pass to the Aucilla River. NHC said additional watches or warnings could be required tonight. Hurricane conditions could begin in the Hurricane Watch area late Friday. Tropical storm conditions could begin in the watch areas by midday Friday.

    Hotspot 1 — Northern Gulf Coast watch corridor

    This is the desk that matters for Friday, not for a ticket tonight. The Hurricane Watch includes coastal Mississippi, coastal Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle through Indian Pass. Local NWS Tallahassee products this afternoon already listed Hurricane Watch and Storm Surge Watch combinations for coastal Bay, coastal Gulf, and south Walton, with tropical storm watches inland into Holmes, inland Bay, inland Gulf, and Washington counties. Surge guidance in Advisory 5: 5 to 7 feet above ground from Ocean Springs, Mississippi, to Indian Pass, including Mobile Bay; 3 to 5 feet from the mouth of the Mississippi to Ocean Springs; 4 to 6 feet from Indian Pass to the Steinhatchee River; 2 to 4 feet from the Steinhatchee River to Yankeetown; 1 to 3 feet on Lake Pontchartrain.

    Rainfall from Friday through the weekend is forecast at 3 to 7 inches, with localized totals up to 10 inches, from far southeastern Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle, and 1 to 3 inches with local amounts to 5 inches farther north into the Tennessee Valley and the Carolinas. Tornado potential increases in rain bands approaching the northeastern Gulf Coast Friday evening and overnight, then spreads inland Saturday.

    Restoration read: this is a prep window, not a landfall ticket. Stage tarps, generators, and tree crews for Bay St. Louis, Gulfport, Mobile, Pensacola, Destin, and Panama City only after the local office upgrades the watch. Do not treat a watch as a warning. Surge and wind, if they verify Friday, are roof, siding, and first-floor water on the immediate coast east of the landfall point.

    Hotspot 2 — Florida Peninsula flood pulse

    This is the water that is already organized. WPC’s Marginal Risk covers much of the peninsula under a tropical air mass south of the front. The same setup SPC described near Tampa Bay — rich moisture, poor lapse rates, weak flow — favors slow cells more than organized severe storms. Cities on the rinse-and-repeat axis include Tampa, St. Petersburg, Lakeland, Orlando, and the I-4 corridor, with lighter but repeated rain south of I-10 into the peninsula.

    Restoration read: urban street flooding and a wet slab where a cell sits, not a regional wind event. A brief coastal waterspout is in the discussion and is not a watch. Photograph standing water only if the road is closed and you are off it. Turn around, don’t drown.

    Hotspot 3 — Great Lakes gusts and northern New York

    SPC flagged the Upper Great Lakes this afternoon and the Lower Great Lakes this evening for low-topped storms that could gust 40 to 50 mph. Northern New York is the overnight piece, tied to the amplifying trough. Buoyancy is limited. No severe probabilities, no watch.

    Restoration read: loose limbs and a service drop if a gust verifies, not a crew callout on the outlook alone. Check the local forecast office before treating a special weather statement as a severe thunderstorm warning.

    Just hit

    There is no new SPC severe watch and no new U.S. landfall to log as a ticket. Yesterday’s west-central Florida marginal tornado language was removed overnight and stayed off the map today. Florida flood pockets from the same front are the carryover water. Isaias is still about 500 miles south-southwest of the Mississippi River mouth. Offshore hurricane warnings in the central Gulf are marine products, not coastal county warnings. Alaska high-wind warnings on the Bering Strait coast are outside this desk.

    Pulse table

    RegionMain threatsSPC / NWS levelStatus this afternoon
    Northern Gulf Coast (LA / MS / AL / FL Panhandle)Future hurricane wind, surge, heavy rain, Friday tornado bandsHurricane Watch Bay St. Louis to Indian Pass; Storm Surge Watch to Yankeetown; TS Watch on the flanksWatch, landfall late Friday or early Saturday
    Florida PeninsulaSlow heavy rain, urban flood, brief waterspout not ruled outWPC Marginal; SPC no severe areaLive water, not a watch
    Upper and Lower Great Lakes / northern New YorkGusts 40–50 mph, low-topped stormsBelow severe probabilitiesScattered, no watch
    Four CornersIsolated heavy rainSub-MarginalQuiet
    Rest of CONUS severeNone organizedNo SPC risk areas, no watches, no MDsQuiet

    What this means for restoration teams

    Today’s callable work is Florida water where a cell has already sat on a neighborhood. The Gulf Coast watch is a 48-hour prep, not a deploy. Hurricane conditions are possible late Friday inside the watch from Bay St. Louis to Indian Pass. Tropical storm conditions could arrive by midday Friday on the flanks, which is when outside prep gets dangerous. NHC’s own key message this afternoon: residents in the Hurricane Watch should prepare for the possibility of long-duration power outages, and people in the Storm Surge Watch should follow local officials.

    If the track holds, Friday night into Saturday is wind and surge on the immediate coast east of landfall, then interior water from 3 to 7 inches with local 10-inch totals from southeastern Louisiana through the Panhandle. That is roof, tree, and extraction work, sequenced after the wind drops. Do not roll crews into a surge zone on a watch.

    What this is not

    This is not a derecho. It is not a U.S. landfall this afternoon. Isaias is a tropical storm at 65 mph, forecast to be a hurricane by Thursday morning, still southwest of the Yucatan approach. Hurricane Rachel and Tropical Storm Simon are eastern Pacific systems and are not a U.S. land threat on the current NHC products. SPC did not draw a Slight Risk, a Marginal Risk, or a watch anywhere in the contiguous United States today.

    Looking ahead

    Thursday morning Isaias is forecast to be a hurricane north of the Yucatan, still over water. The next complete NHC advisory is scheduled for 10:00 p.m. CDT, with an intermediate at 7:00 p.m. CDT. Additional watches or warnings for the northern Gulf Coast could come tonight. Friday is the approach day: tropical storm conditions possible by midday in the watch areas, hurricane conditions possible late in the Hurricane Watch, rain bands and a rising tornado risk Friday evening. SPC’s next Day 1 outlook is scheduled by 0100Z. The Florida Marginal flood risk expires with the Day 1 period at 12Z Thursday unless WPC redraws it.

    Sources and how to verify

    Primary sources, all dated Wednesday, October 7, 2026: NOAA Storm Prediction Center 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook (2:41 p.m. CDT); Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (discussion 5:03 a.m. EDT); National Hurricane Center Tropical Storm Isaias Advisory 5 (4:00 p.m. CDT) and Forecast Discussion 5; NWS watches and warnings text summary; NWS Tallahassee local statement intermediate advisory 4A (2:16 p.m. EDT). Morning desk: Storm Updates: Florida Flood Pulse, Quiet Severe — Wednesday, October 7, 2026 (Morning).

    Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook and any new watch, WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay, and nhc.noaa.gov for Isaias.

    Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

  • Storm Updates: Gulf Coast Slight Flood, Quiet Severe Pulse — Saturday, October 3, 2026

    This is the Saturday afternoon Storm Tracker desk for October 3, 2026. The organized severe window is still closed. The Storm Prediction Center 2000 UTC Day 1 convective outlook, updated 2:46 p.m. CDT by Thornton and valid 2000 UTC Saturday through 1200 UTC Sunday, carries no severe thunderstorm areas. The summary line is unchanged from the morning issuance: organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. The 20z update made only minor adjustments to the general thunder line.

    What is organized this afternoon is water, not wind or hail. Restoration exposure is coastal rain on the central Gulf Coast and the lower Texas coast, plus river stages already above flood stage in eastern Iowa. There is no convective watch, no mesoscale discussion, and no SPC local storm report on the board. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

    What is live this afternoon

    No convective watches are currently valid. SPC’s watch page, updated 21:16 UTC Saturday, lists none. The most recently issued watch remains Severe Thunderstorm Watch 676. No mesoscale discussions are in effect as of 21:10 UTC; the most recently issued discussion is MD 2345. The national watches-and-warnings text summary does not show a live Severe Thunderstorm Warning or Tornado Warning this afternoon.

    SPC local storm reports for the Saturday convective day, 1200 UTC Saturday through 1159 UTC Sunday, show no tornado, hail, or wind reports received as of this desk. The afternoon severe hit list is empty. Showers and low-topped thunderstorms over parts of the Dakotas are spreading into Minnesota. Surface dewpoints are generally in the 40s. A pocket of weak instability can support occasional lightning, and convectively enhanced wind gusts may occur as low-level lapse rates steepen, but SPC keeps the overall severe-wind risk low because instability is minimal.

    The Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, updated 0738 UTC Saturday and valid 12 UTC Saturday through 12 UTC Sunday, still holds a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall for the central Gulf Coast and the lower Texas coast. Forecaster Wegman left both coastal Slight Risk areas in place and kept a higher-end Slight Risk from New Orleans through much of the western Florida Panhandle, citing urban drainage and rainfall volume. There is no Marginal, Slight, Enhanced, Moderate, or High severe-risk area on the Day 1 categorical map.

    Hotspot 1 — Central Gulf Coast

    A tropical wave moving across the Gulf is funneling record to near-record atmospheric moisture into much of the Gulf Coast. A 15 to 25 knot southerly flow at 850 mb supports numerous showers and thunderstorms into the central Gulf Coast today and tonight. Precipitable water is at or above 2.5 inches for many areas. Cloud cover and the October sun should limit instability away from the coast, so cells that reach the shoreline are not expected to travel far inland without weakening. A weak mid- and upper-level wave centered over the Bay of Campeche is aiding the northward moisture push. SPC still expects this convection to stay disorganized, with weak low-level winds.

    WPC’s coast can expect 3 to 6 inches of rain today, with locally higher amounts. Flash-flood guidance is high and soils have been dry, but the volume can still overcome that in urban drainage from New Orleans through the western Florida Panhandle. Mississippi and Alabama coastal counties sit in the same Slight Risk envelope. A nearly stationary front from south and coastal Texas into the Southeast and Carolinas remains the broader thunderstorm focus. Poor lapse rates aloft and weak deep-layer shear should limit organized severe storms along that front through tonight.

    Cities and counties to watch: New Orleans and the south-shore and east-bank parishes, coastal Mississippi from Hancock through Jackson County, Mobile and Baldwin counties in Alabama, and the western Florida Panhandle from Pensacola toward Panama City. River products already on the board are not the same as a flash-flood warning. National Weather Service Mobile, issued by New Orleans, has a flood warning for the Styx River near Elsanor in Baldwin County for minor flooding from Sunday evening into Monday morning, with a forecast crest of 12.3 feet early Monday against a 12.0-foot flood stage. A separate flood warning covers the Shoal River near Crestview in Okaloosa County for minor flooding from Monday evening into Thursday morning, crest forecast 9.0 feet Tuesday against an 8.0-foot flood stage.

    Restoration read: water first, and only where a warning or measured street flood verifies. Stage extractors and moisture meters for urban low spots and slab-on-grade first floors. This is not a wind or hail board. Do not staff a regional roof crew on a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall. The Styx and Shoal warnings are river-stage tickets for later tonight through early next week, not an afternoon structural-wind call.

    Hotspot 2 — Lower Texas coast

    The second Slight Risk remains on the coast of Deep South Texas. Onshore northeasterly flow of the same deep tropical moisture may reach urban areas such as Brownsville. Because this stretch of coast sits roughly perpendicular to the mean flow, WPC expects the onshore push to let convection move a few miles inland before it dissipates. No change was made to that Slight Risk area on the 0738 UTC update.

    Friday’s central Texas excessive-rain story is a different board. Those time-limited products are not the Saturday Slight Risk. If a river or areal flood warning is still up in central or south-central Texas, treat it as yesterday’s water still in the channel.

    Restoration read: Brownsville and the lower Texas coast are the new water ticket if cells train against the coast. Do not send the same crew to the Gulf Coast polygon and a leftover central Texas channel without checking which county has a warning now.

    Hotspot 3 — Dakotas into Minnesota, and Iowa river stages

    A shortwave trough in the northern mid-level westerlies continues east across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Showers and low-topped storms ongoing over parts of the Dakotas spread into Minnesota this afternoon. SPC allows a convectively enhanced gust as lapse rates steepen. The severe risk stays low. There is no watch and no storm report to hang a roof or tree crew on.

    Eastern Iowa is the leftover water ticket. National Weather Service Quad Cities flood statements at 9:07 a.m. CDT Saturday keep a major flood warning on the Wapsipinicon River near De Witt 4S, affecting Clinton and Scott counties, until further notice. The stage was 12.9 feet at 8:30 a.m., flood stage is 11.0 feet, and impacts at 13.0 feet include residences along the river. The North Skunk River near Sigourney, Keokuk County, remains in a moderate flood warning until late Sunday night, stage 18.4 feet against a 16.0-foot flood stage, mostly agricultural land. The Skunk River at Augusta, affecting Lee, Henry, and Des Moines counties, remains in a minor flood warning until Sunday evening, stage 16.9 feet against a 15.0-foot flood stage.

    Restoration read: the Wapsipinicon near De Witt is the residential river ticket if water is already in yards or first floors. The Skunk statements are mostly agricultural. Neither is a new convective watch, and neither produced an SPC wind or hail report today.

    Just hit

    The last 24 hours did not add a severe-report ticket. SPC’s Saturday report page has no tornado, hail, or wind reports. Friday night into Saturday morning did not leave a new hail or tornado survey on the filtered report page. The tickets already open are river stages: major flooding on the Wapsipinicon near De Witt, moderate flooding on the North Skunk near Sigourney, and minor flooding on the Skunk at Augusta. Gulf Coast river rises on the Styx and Shoal are forecast products for Sunday night into early next week, not claims already logged this afternoon.

    Pulse table

    RegionMain threatsSPC / WPC / NWS levelStatus this afternoon
    Central Gulf Coast (SE LA, coastal MS/AL, western FL Panhandle)Heavy rain, urban flash floodWPC Slight, higher-end on the coastLive today and tonight; 3–6 inches, locally higher
    Lower Texas coast (Brownsville)Onshore heavy rainWPC SlightLive; cells may push a few miles inland
    Dakotas into MinnesotaLow-topped storms, gustsNo severe areaSpreading east; severe risk low
    Southeast front into the CarolinasGeneral thunderstormsNo severe areaWeak shear, poor lapse rates
    Eastern Iowa riversRiver flood, some residencesFlood warnings, not a watchWapsipinicon major; Skunk moderate to minor
    Baldwin AL / Okaloosa FL riversMinor river flood laterFlood warnings issued this morningStyx Sunday night; Shoal Monday night
    U.S. mainland tropicsNoneRachel SW of Baja; no coastal warningsNot a U.S. land desk

    What this means for restoration teams

    There is no wind-driven roof board on the Day 1 outlook. A 3-to-6-inch coastal rain is wet drywall, flooring, and a 24-to-48-hour mold clock only where water actually enters. High flash-flood guidance and dry soils mean many miles of the Slight Risk will not produce a claim. Staff the warning, not the polygon. Urban New Orleans through the western Florida Panhandle is the higher-end piece of the same Slight Risk because of drainage, not because a watch is up.

    Eastern Iowa is the only residential water ticket already on a river gauge this afternoon, and it is the Wapsipinicon near De Witt, not a statewide Iowa event. Southwest Kansas and central Texas remain yesterday’s water only if a flood statement is still valid. The empty SPC report page means there is no new hail, tree, or tornado survey from today.

    What this is not

    This is not a derecho, not a tornado outbreak, and not a U.S. hurricane landfall. Hurricane Rachel, Advisory information at 2:00 p.m. MST Saturday, is near 19.8°N, 112.5°W, about 270 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California, moving west-northwest at 5 mph, with maximum sustained winds of 80 mph. There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. A slow west to west-northwest motion continues through the weekend, away from the U.S. mainland. Swells can affect west-central Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula. That is a marine hazard, not a U.S. land ticket. Hurricane warnings on the national summary this afternoon are offshore-waters products for the eastern Pacific within 250 nautical miles of Mexico, not U.S. coastal warnings.

    Hurricane Nolo is a Central Pacific system accelerating west and expected to cross the International Date Line on Sunday. It is not a U.S. mainland threat. The Atlantic basin has no tropical cyclones. The Gulf Coast rain is tied to a tropical wave and deep moisture, not to a named storm making landfall.

    Looking ahead

    The Day 2 convective outlook, issued 12:16 p.m. CDT Saturday and valid 1200 UTC Sunday through 1200 UTC Monday, also carries no severe thunderstorm areas. Severe storms are not forecast for Sunday. An upper low over southern Canada is forecast to intensify as it crosses the northern and eastern Great Lakes, with a leading shortwave moving from the eastern Lakes into the Northeast and a portion of the cold front moving offshore. Scattered thunderstorms are expected ahead of the front and along sea-breeze boundaries, but very weak mid-level lapse rates and little deep-layer shear should keep organization minimal. A sporadic wet microburst is possible near and just offshore the southern Alabama and Florida coasts. Severe potential stays low. Shortwave ridging to the west supports stable conditions over much of the country, with isolated storms possible over a small part of central and southwest Colorado near the higher terrain.

    Sources and how to verify

    Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook for Saturday, October 3, 2026, and the 1730 UTC Day 2 outlook; SPC current watches (none valid); SPC mesoscale discussions (none in effect); SPC storm reports for October 3 (no tornado, hail, or wind reports received); Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, updated 0738 UTC Saturday; National Weather Service watches, warnings, and advisories summary; National Hurricane Center position on Hurricane Rachel, 2:00 p.m. MST Saturday. Morning desk: Storm Updates: Gulf Coast Slight Flood, Quiet Severe Pulse — Saturday, October 3, 2026 (Morning).

    Disclaimer: Informational only — not an official warning. This is an afternoon desk summary of public National Weather Service, Storm Prediction Center, Weather Prediction Center, and National Hurricane Center products. It is not a forecast for a specific address and not a substitute for local NWS products. Watches and warnings expire and get replaced. Confirm the county or ZIP on weather.gov or spc.noaa.gov before travel or work. Turn around, don’t drown.