Tag: Massachusetts

  • Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Oct 16 Morning

    Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Oct 16 Morning

    Tropical: None · Severe: Quiet · Flood: Marginal

    What Changed

    • Compared with the afternoon desk (quiet-pulse-2026-10-16-afternoon): Severe Thunderstorm Watches 686 and 687 have fully expired. SPC current watches page (updated ~0213Z October 17) lists no convective watches valid. The low-topped convective line has moved offshore; associated convection weakened.
    • SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook issued 0750 PM CDT Friday, October 16, 2026 (0100Z October 17, valid 170100Z–171200Z) shows NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST. The prior Slight Risk over the Mid-Atlantic into southern New England has ended with cold-front passage.
    • WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 0059 UTC October 17 / ~8:58 PM EDT Friday, valid 01Z–12Z October 17) holds only a Marginal Risk across portions of southeast Florida. Heavy rainfall coverage is declining overnight; localized urban flash-flood risk may linger a few hours. No Moderate or higher.
    • Tropical lane remains closed for the United States. NHC: no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf of America; formation not expected during the next 7 days. Eastern Pacific Hurricane Trudy (90 mph, approaching southwestern Mexico) and remnants of Simon are offshore Mexico only. No U.S. land or Gulf threat.
    • Preliminary local storm reports from the convective day logged numerous wind damage reports (trees, wires, power lines) primarily across Pennsylvania and into New Jersey, Massachusetts, and Connecticut. No tornado or hail reports. Severe potential is now low.

    Live Status

    As of this late evening update to the October 16, 2026 morning desk (approximately 8:12 PM PDT / 11:12 PM EDT / 0312Z October 17), the severe weather lane is closed. The SPC 0100Z Day 1 outlook confirms no severe thunderstorm areas are forecast through the remainder of the night. A strong cold front has swept the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England; the low-topped convection that produced damaging winds earlier under the Slight Risk and Watches 686/687 has weakened or moved offshore. Sporadic thunderstorm activity may linger briefly in residual areas, but post-frontal conditions limit any further severe potential. Ongoing storms over the Florida Peninsula are generally weakening, with some residual activity possible overnight near the Keys and near-coastal areas.

    The flood lane stays at Marginal only over southeast Florida, where seasonably high moisture supported earlier heavy downpours. Coverage is on the decline, though isolated urban flooding remains possible for a few more hours where slow-moving cells drop 2–3 inches in an hour. The progressive nature of the front limited Mid-Atlantic rainfall to minor ponding. No higher-end excessive rainfall risk is in effect. No tropical storm or hurricane watches or warnings affect the U.S. coast or Gulf of America. Separate non-convective High Wind Warnings remain in effect in parts of southern California and Arizona through Saturday.

    Pulse Table

    LaneStatusNotes (as of ~8:12 PM PDT / 11:12 PM EDT / 0312Z 17 Oct 2026)
    TropicalNoneNo named systems threatening U.S. land or Gulf. Atlantic, Caribbean, and Gulf of America quiet; formation not expected next 7 days. Pacific systems (Hurricane Trudy) offshore Mexico only.
    SevereQuietSPC Day 1: NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST (0100Z outlook). Prior Mid-Atlantic/southern New England Slight Risk ended with front passage. No convective watches valid. Earlier wind LSRs (trees/wires) mainly PA into NJ/MA/CT; potential now low.
    FloodMarginalWPC Day 1 Marginal Risk southeast Florida only. Heavy rain coverage declining overnight; localized urban risk possible a few more hours. No Moderate or higher.

    Restoration Read

    With the severe lane closed, the dominant restoration ticket from earlier in the day (Mid-Atlantic into southern New England wind damage under the Slight Risk and Watches 686/687) is now residual. Teams covering the I-95 corridor from the Washington DC metro through Philadelphia, New Jersey, the New York City area, and into southern New England should assess any remaining tree, wire, and power-line damage from the progressive low-topped line. Standard verification of any lingering local warnings applies, but organized severe potential has ended. Flood remains Marginal only in southeast Florida and does not drive a national water response. No tropical surge or coastal claims. Separate non-convective High Wind Warnings in southern California and Arizona are outside the convective scope. Turn around, don’t drown remains the standing message on any flooded roads.

    Rising Queries

    Trends unreachable.

    Informational only — not an official warning. This is a morning desk summary of public National Weather Service, Storm Prediction Center, Weather Prediction Center, and National Hurricane Center products as of approximately 8:12 PM PDT on October 16, 2026. Always confirm with the latest official forecasts and local authorities. Turn around, don’t drown.

    Sources: SPC Day 1 Outlook and watches, WPC Day 1 ERO, NWS WWA summary, NHC. Previous desk: Storm Updates: Mid-Atlantic Slight — Oct 16.

  • Storm Updates: Mid-Atlantic High Wind, Southern Plains Marginal — Saturday, September 26, 2026 (Morning)

    Storm Updates: Mid-Atlantic High Wind, Southern Plains Marginal — Saturday, September 26, 2026 (Morning)

    This is a live Saturday morning snapshot of U.S. local-storm activity as of Saturday, September 26, 2026. Overnight into this morning, the organized severe desk stayed quiet: no Storm Prediction Center convective watches are valid. The 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook draws a Marginal Risk of isolated hail and strong outflow winds for western Oklahoma into northwest Texas late this afternoon into early evening. The Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook holds Slight Risk pockets from southwest Iowa into northern Missouri and along the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England coast, with a broader Marginal overlay from the southern Plains into the central Plains.

    The live work this morning is not a watch box. It is High Wind Warnings on the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England coast from a strengthening coastal low, leftover water in north-central Kansas where a flash-flood warning was replaced by a flood advisory, and a few overnight local storm reports. These are county-scale thunderstorms and coastal wind, not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. Restoration exposure today is wind-driven trees and service drops on the coast, isolated hail and outflow later on the southern Plains, and interior water where yesterday’s High Plains rain is still in the channel. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

    What is live this morning

    SPC current watches: none. Most recently issued watch was 0674, already expired. The 0655 AM CDT Day 1 discussion (Smith/Bentley) is explicit: morning showers and thunderstorms over the southern High Plains should dissipate, with new storm development around 21–23 UTC (4–6 p.m. CDT). Isolated large hail and severe gusts are possible mainly 22z–02z. Elsewhere, SPC calls the severe environment quiescent.

    WPC valid 12Z Saturday through 12Z Sunday: Slight Risk of rainfall exceeding flash-flood guidance from roughly southwest Iowa into northern Missouri, and a second Slight along the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England coast from the Delmarva through Cape Cod and adjacent waters. A Marginal Risk covers a large southern-to-central Plains corridor plus a coastal Mid-Atlantic/Northeast swath.

    National Hurricane Center: Tropical Depression Fay and Tropical Storm Gonzalo are well out in the open Atlantic and are not a U.S. land threat this morning. Hurricane Nolo remains nearly stationary well south of the Big Island of Hawaii and is forecast to stay south of the islands; that is a Hawaii flood-and-wind desk, not a mainland landfall. Eastern Pacific Hurricanes Odalys and Polo are Mexico-waters storms, not CONUS landfalls.

    Hotspot 1 — Mid-Atlantic and southern New England high wind

    This is the live warning desk. National Weather Service Mount Holly holds a High Wind Warning until 6:00 a.m. EDT Sunday for Delaware beaches and coastal New Jersey counties including Eastern Monmouth, Atlantic Coastal Cape May, Coastal Atlantic, and Coastal Ocean. Language: north winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 60 mph; trees and power lines; widespread outages possible. Boston/Norton holds High Wind Warnings until 8:00 a.m. EDT Sunday for eastern and southeastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island, with northeast gusts 50–60 mph on the exposed coast and 50 mph inland over Kent and Providence counties. WPC’s coastal Slight excessive-rainfall risk sits under the same system: heaviest totals preferred offshore, but localized heavy rain can still reach the Jersey Shore through southern New England.

    Cities and counties to watch: Atlantic City, Long Beach Island, Ocean City, Rehoboth Beach, Sandy Hook; Boston, Quincy, Plymouth, New Bedford, Cape Cod, Nantucket, Martha’s Vineyard; Providence, Warwick, Newport, Westerly.

    Restoration read: wind first. Stage tree crews, generators, and tarp kits before the next peak gust period tonight. Treat coastal ZIPs as possible interior-water jobs if the Slight rain overlay verifies on already-wet ground. Photograph roofs in remaining daylight only if it is safe.

    Hotspot 2 — Western Oklahoma into northwest Texas (afternoon Marginal)

    SPC’s only categorical severe area today. A High Plains upper trough and a smaller-scale jet over the Texas Panhandle into Oklahoma maintain a lee trough and dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s. Morning convection is expected to die. New storms 21–23 UTC from south-central Kansas through western Oklahoma and west/northwest Texas. Adequately strong deep-layer shear supports a few organized cells capable of isolated large hail and severe outflow, mainly 22z–02z. Lubbock’s hazardous-weather outlook already flags isolated afternoon and evening storms off the Caprock with gusts to 65 mph and hail to quarter size.

    Restoration read: this is a late-day hail and wind ticket, not a morning watch. Do not pre-position as if a Slight or Enhanced is up. Staff local warnings if they fire after 4 p.m. CDT.

    Hotspot 3 — Leftover High Plains water and central Plains flood overlay

    NWS Hastings replaced a flash-flood warning with a Flood Advisory through 1:00 p.m. CDT for parts of Jewell, Mitchell, Osborne, and Smith Counties in north-central Kansas. That is yesterday’s rain still in the ditch, not a new MCS. WPC keeps a Slight excessive-rainfall risk over southwest Iowa into northern Missouri and a Marginal from Oklahoma and West Texas north across Kansas toward the eastern Dakotas. Friday afternoon’s New Mexico flood pulse is no longer the national Slight; treat Cibola and Santa Fe as aftermath unless a new warning posts.

    Great Falls holds a High Wind Warning until noon MDT for Glacier, Toole, and Pondera High Plains zones — westerly 30–50 mph, gusts to 70. That is a plains wind event, not the SPC Marginal.

    Just hit

    Overnight and Friday evening local storm reports, all preliminary: landspout near Wilmore in Comanche County, Kansas; one-inch hail that cracked windshields at Tecolote and near Romeroville in San Miguel County, New Mexico; 59–61 mph measured gusts in Liberty and Pondera Counties, Montana. Earlier Friday into last night on the Texas side of the same High Plains corridor: 60 mph at Memphis in Hall County, an estimated 60 mph north of Study Butte, and a roof section blown onto a road in Terlingua, Brewster County. No tornado watch fired. No convective watch is live this morning.

    Pulse table

    RegionMain threatsSPC / NWS / WPC levelStatus this morning
    Coastal NJ / DE / southern New EnglandDamaging wind, trees, outages, localized heavy rainHigh Wind Warning + WPC Slight (coast)Live warnings through Sunday morning
    Western OK / northwest TX / south-central KSIsolated hail, severe outflowSPC Marginal 22z–02zAfternoon–evening development
    SW Iowa / northern MissouriTraining rain, flash floodWPC SlightToday into tonight
    North-central Kansas (Jewell–Smith)Residual floodingFlood Advisory to 1 p.m. CDTAftermath / still in channel
    Northern MT High PlainsHigh wind gusts to 70 mphHigh Wind Warning to noon MDTLive, expires midday
    Hawaii (Nolo)Flood watch Big Island / Maui CountyNHC hurricane well south of islandsHawaii desk only
    U.S. mainland tropicalNo landfalling hurricaneFay / Gonzalo open AtlanticQuiet on the mainland coast

    What this means for restoration teams

    Coastal gusts of 50–60 mph are tree-on-structure, siding, gutter, and service-drop work. Stage before dark on the Jersey Shore and southern New England, not after the first outage ticket. The Oklahoma–Texas Marginal is a late-day hail and wind desk: a few cells, not a regional outbreak. Kansas flood-advisory counties are already wet — extraction and drying, not a new watch. Hawaii Nolo stays off the mainland board.

    Property owners: photograph damage in daylight if it is safe, call the carrier, and start extraction the same night if water is inside. Turn around, don’t drown at low-water crossings in the WPC Slight counties.

    What this is not

    This is not a regional derecho and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. No convective watch is up. The work today, if it comes, will be scattered: a coastal wind swath through a New Jersey or Massachusetts county, a late-day hail core in western Oklahoma, leftover water in a Kansas creek. That is the local-storm pattern this desk should staff.

    Looking ahead

    Coastal High Wind Warnings run through early Sunday. The southern Plains Marginal is a same-day afternoon problem, not an overnight watch. SPC Day 2 language on the hazard matrix is No Severe for Sunday. Watch the next Storm Tracker update rather than assuming this morning’s High Wind Warning is the last line of the weekend.

    Sources and how to verify

    Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center Sep 26, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook; SPC current watches (none valid); SPC local storm reports for 1200 UTC Sep 25–1159 UTC Sep 26; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook valid 12Z Sep 26–12Z Sep 27; National Weather Service warning text from Mount Holly, Boston/Norton, Great Falls, Hastings, and Lubbock; National Hurricane Center public advisories for Nolo, Fay, and Gonzalo. Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watches, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay. Prior desk: Friday, September 25 afternoon Storm Updates.

    Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.