This is a live Friday morning snapshot of local storm-type events across the United States as of the morning of Friday, September 25, 2026. The organized desk is still water on the southern High Plains, not a national wind outbreak. The Storm Prediction Center 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook, valid 251300Z–261200Z, carries no severe thunderstorm areas. Summary language from Norman: organized severe thunderstorms are not expected today. The Weather Prediction Center 12Z Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, valid 12Z Friday through 12Z Saturday, holds a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall across portions of the southern High Plains — southeast New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle and parts of West Texas.
These are county- and ZIP-scale thunderstorms and leftover runoff, not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. Restoration exposure this morning is water already in low crossings and buildings from last night’s New Mexico–west Texas MCS, plus isolated heavy rain if cells redevelop this afternoon. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.
What is live this morning
No tornado or severe thunderstorm watches are current. The SPC watch page, updated 1300 UTC Friday, states no watches are valid. The last issued convective watch on the board is Watch 674, already expired. Yesterday evening’s 0100 UTC Day 1 outlook had carried a Marginal Risk over parts of the Texas Panhandle; that window closed overnight. Today’s 1300 UTC package dropped categorical severe probabilities entirely.
Overnight flash-flood warnings from Midland/Odessa, Albuquerque, and El Paso/Santa Teresa covered northwestern Eddy County, southwestern Chaves County, and central Otero County in New Mexico, plus southeastern El Paso County and parts of Hudspeth County in western Texas. Those products were valid into the predawn hours — Eddy and Chaves until 530 AM MDT, Otero until 730 AM MDT, El Paso extensions into 330–445 AM MDT. By this morning desk they have expired. That is the just-hit pile, not a live warning overlay.
Hotspot 1 — Southeast New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle and West Texas
This is today’s flood ticket, trimmed from Thursday’s Moderate. WPC’s 410 AM EDT Friday discussion keeps a Slight Risk from southeastern New Mexico to the southern Panhandle and extends it south into parts of West Texas, where 3-hour flash-flood guidance is under an inch. Overnight activity over eastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle can still produce additional flooding concerns into mid to late morning. Guidance then has storms diminishing as the shortwave and deeper moisture lift northeast. Afternoon cells over West Texas can still dump 1–2 inches locally on already wet ground.
SPC’s Day 1 discussion notes a convectively modified disturbance over eastern New Mexico lifting toward the central High Plains, mid- and high-level clouds over western Oklahoma, and only a low-probability severe gust if a stronger storm develops late this afternoon in western Oklahoma. Southern New Mexico, in the wake of the early-day MCS, may see a couple of stronger cells with some hail risk, but confidence in a severe-caliber threat is low. That is why there is no categorical severe area this morning.
Cities and counties to watch: Artesia, Hope, Lakewood, and Brantley Lake in Eddy County; Dunken and Elk in southwestern Chaves; Sacramento, Mayhill, and Weed in Otero; Tornillo, Hueco Tanks, and rural east-central El Paso and Hudspeth Counties. Streams named in overnight warning text include the Rio Penasco, Bluewater Creek, and Agua Chiquita Creek.
Restoration read: water first. Extraction and drying on structures that took overnight runoff. Low-water crossings and rural roads in the Sacramento Mountains and Pecos Valley stay a drive-around, not a drive-through. Stage pumps where last night’s warnings sat. Do not treat this as a wind event.
Hotspot 2 — Western Oklahoma scatter
SPC leaves the door cracked for a stronger storm or two late this afternoon over western Oklahoma under modest mid-level lapse rates and up to about 1500 J/kg MLCAPE, with a low-probability severe gust. Cloud cover from the departing MCS and tropical-origin moisture aloft will limit heating. This is not a watch candidate at 1300 UTC. Treat it as isolated outflow and lightning, not a Plains outbreak.
Hotspot 3 — Hurricane Nolo, Big Island of Hawaii
The National Hurricane Center and Central Pacific Hurricane Center are issuing advisories on Hurricane Nolo. As of the 200 AM HST Friday advisory, Nolo was near 15.8°N 155.6°W, moving north-northeast at 5 mph, with maximum sustained winds of 85 mph and a minimum pressure of 980 mb. Headline language: catastrophic and life-threatening flash flooding possible on the Big Island of Hawaii into the weekend. Local NWS Honolulu products own the island warning suite. This is a Hawaii County flood-and-wind desk, not a CONUS landfall. Fay and Gonzalo in the Atlantic and Odalys and Polo in the eastern Pacific are not U.S. mainland land threats this morning.
Just hit
SPC today’s storm reports for the 1200 UTC September 24 through 1159 UTC September 25 window show no tornado reports and no hail reports as of this desk. One preliminary wind report: 60 mph at Memphis in Hall County, Texas, at 1758 UTC Thursday, relayed by NWS Lubbock. That is yesterday afternoon’s High Plains Marginal, not a new overnight severe pile.
The overnight work that did verify is water. NWS Midland issued a flash-flood warning for northwestern Eddy County until 530 AM MDT covering Artesia, Hope, Seven Rivers, Brantley Lake, Dayton, Lakewood, and Atoka. Albuquerque warned southwestern Chaves County until 530 AM MDT for Dunken and Elk, with considerable damage-threat language on the Rio Penasco and Bluewater Creek. El Paso/Santa Teresa warned central Otero County until 730 AM MDT for Sacramento, Mayhill, Weed, and several canyons, and separately warned pieces of El Paso and Hudspeth Counties where 1 to 3 inches had already fallen. Those warnings are expired this morning. Survey and extraction replace the warning overlay.
Pulse table
| Region | Main threats | SPC / NWS / WPC level | Status this morning |
|---|---|---|---|
| SE NM / TX Panhandle / West Texas | Flash flood, leftover runoff, isolated heavy rain | WPC Slight excessive rainfall | Overnight FFWs expired; Slight still live |
| Western OK / southern NM cells | Isolated gust or hail, low confidence | SPC 1300 UTC: no categorical area | Afternoon scatter only |
| Hall County, TX (Memphis) | 60 mph wind Thursday afternoon | Yesterday Marginal LSR | Just-hit / closed |
| Big Island, Hawaii | Flash flood, tropical wind | Hurricane Nolo, 85 mph | Live Hawaii desk |
| CONUS severe watches | None | No watches valid; last was 674 | Quiet |
What this means for restoration teams
Friday is a Quiet Pulse on the severe side and a water desk on the southern High Plains. Overnight flash flooding in Eddy, Chaves, Otero, El Paso, and Hudspeth Counties is the work that already happened. Interior water starts a 24–48 hour mold clock. Photograph in daylight if it is safe. Do not drive flooded crossings in the Sacramento Mountains or the Pecos Valley.
Western Oklahoma and southern New Mexico may still fire isolated strong cells this afternoon. Staff that as local lightning and a possible isolated gust or hail stone, not a regional wind swath. Hawaii County is a separate tropical-flood ticket under Nolo. Do not mix that crew map with the New Mexico overnight pile.
What this is not
This is not a regional derecho and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. SPC has no Day 1 severe area. No convective watch is up. Thursday’s Moderate flood risk over southeast New Mexico has been stepped down to a Slight. The work this morning is leftover water and a trimmed rainfall overlay. That is the local-storm pattern this desk should staff.
Looking ahead
The SPC 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook, valid 261200Z–271200Z Saturday, carries a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms for portions of the central and southern Plains. Summary: isolated hail and damaging winds may accompany a few strong to severe thunderstorms Saturday from parts of Kansas into western Texas and Oklahoma, including the Wichita-to-Lubbock corridor. Watch the afternoon Storm Tracker rather than treating Friday’s quiet severe map as the weekend map.
Sources and how to verify
Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook for Friday, September 25, 2026; SPC current watch page (no watches valid; last issued Watch 674); SPC storm reports for 1200 UTC September 24 through 1159 UTC September 25; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook discussion issued 410 AM EDT Friday; National Weather Service flash-flood warning text from Midland/Odessa, Albuquerque, and El Paso/Santa Teresa overnight; National Hurricane Center / Central Pacific Hurricane Center advisory on Hurricane Nolo at 200 AM HST Friday.
Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watch, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay. Prior desk: Thursday afternoon, September 24 storm updates.
Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.