This is a live Thursday afternoon snapshot of U.S. local-storm activity as of Thursday, September 24, 2026. The organized desk is water, not a national wind outbreak. The Weather Prediction Center 16Z Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook upgrade holds a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall across parts of southeast New Mexico. The Storm Prediction Center 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook holds a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms across portions of the eastern Texas Panhandle, western Oklahoma, and western Kansas. No convective watches are in effect as of the 2107 UTC SPC watch page.
These are county-scale thunderstorms and flash-flood cells on saturated soils, not a mainland hurricane landfall. Restoration exposure this afternoon and tonight is interior water and mud where New Mexico cells train, plus isolated wind, hail, and tree work if a High Plains downburst verifies. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.
What is live this afternoon
SPC’s 1630 UTC Day 1 outlook, issued 1114 AM CDT Thursday, September 24, 2026, and valid 1630Z Thursday through 1200Z Friday, places a Marginal Risk over about 42,181 square miles and roughly 370,000 people. Named population centers inside the contour include Dodge City, Kansas; Altus, Oklahoma; Pampa, Texas; Woodward, Oklahoma; and Elk City, Oklahoma. The official summary: a couple of marginally severe thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon into the early evening across parts of the southern High Plains. A 2000 UTC outlook update discussed on secondary feeds left the contour unchanged and pointed to Mesoscale Discussion 2327; by 1801 UTC the SPC mesoscale page showed no discussions in effect, with 2326 the most recent archived number.
WPC’s Day 1 excessive-rainfall discussion issued 417 PM EDT Thursday, September 24, 2026, upgraded the existing Slight Risk to a Moderate Risk for portions of southeast New Mexico after coordination with NWS Albuquerque and El Paso. The language cites slow-moving thunderstorms, saturated soils from multiple prior Moderate ERO days, and HREF neighborhood probabilities over 70 percent for both 3 inches of rain and 10-year ARI exceedance over parts of Lincoln, Chaves, and Otero counties. Surrounding Slight and Marginal flood-risk language remains over parts of the Southwest into the southern and central Plains. WPC Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1375, issued 238 PM EDT Thursday and valid 1838Z Thursday through 0003Z Friday, flags the Pecos River Valley: flash flooding likely, with 2 to 4 inches possible where cells backbuild near the Sacramento Mountains.
No tornado or severe thunderstorm watches are current. The last issued convective watch on the SPC board is Watch 674, already expired. SPC today’s storm reports (1200 UTC September 24 through 1159 UTC September 25) show one preliminary wind report as of this desk: 60 mph at Memphis in Hall County, Texas, at 1758 UTC, relayed by NWS Lubbock. No hail or tornado reports have posted on that same page yet.
Hotspot 1 — Southeast New Mexico: Lincoln, Chaves, Otero
This is the live flood upgrade. WPC and WFO coordination put the Moderate Risk on the eastern slope of the Sacramento Mountains and the upper Pecos drainage, where soils already sit at very high NASA SPoRT moisture percentiles and flash-flood guidance is low. Cities and counties to watch: Ruidoso and the Lincoln County high country, Roswell and Chaves County, Alamogordo and Otero County, plus adjacent terrain toward the Texas line covered by MPD 1375.
Restoration read: water first. Treat any ZIP that takes a 1- to 2-inch-per-hour core as an extraction job tonight, not a tomorrow morning survey. Photograph only if it is safe. Low-water crossings and arroyos fail before the living room does. Turn around, don’t drown.
Hotspot 2 — Eastern Texas Panhandle, western Oklahoma, western Kansas
This is the SPC Marginal contour. Outlook language from Mosier and Chalmers at 1114 AM CDT Thursday: mid-to-upper 60s dewpoints east of a mid-level moisture plume, afternoon temperatures in the mid to upper 80s, MLCAPE 1500 to 2000 J/kg, weak shear, disorganized storm mode, a few water-loaded downbursts, and a couple of weak supercells possible into Kansas where a weak vorticity maximum moves through. Isolated hail or damaging gusts are the ceiling in the official text. Dodge City, Pampa, Amarillo’s eastern approaches, Altus, Elk City, and Woodward sit inside or on the edge of that language.
Restoration read: isolated wind and hail tickets, not a line. Stage one tarp crew and one extractor, not a CAT convoy. The 60 mph Memphis, Texas, report is the only official LSR on today’s SPC page as of this writing — treat it as a local pulse, not proof the whole contour verified.
Hotspot 3 — Hawaii County under Tropical Storm Nolo; East Coast coastal low is not a named landfall
The National Hurricane Center and Central Pacific Hurricane Center are issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Nolo. As of the Thursday afternoon NHC/CPHC board, Nolo was south of the Big Island with maximum sustained winds near 70 mph, a Tropical Storm Warning in effect for Hawaii County, and forecast language that it could reach hurricane strength later Thursday. That is U.S. land exposure on the Big Island. It is not a continental U.S. landfall.
Tropical Storm Fay is in the central Atlantic, hundreds of miles west-southwest of the Azores, and is not a U.S. land threat on current advisories. Hurricane Polo is off southwestern Mexico. Hurricane Odalys is well west-southwest of Baja. WPC short-range discussion also flags a developing East Coast coastal low for coastal flooding, rip currents, wind gusts, and heavy rain into the weekend. That feature is not a named hurricane making U.S. landfall. Do not staff the Mid-Atlantic as if Fay or Polo were coming ashore.
Just hit
Yesterday’s SPC report page (1200 UTC September 23 through 1159 UTC September 24) is already a ticket list, not today’s new watch: quarter-size hail at New England in Hettinger County, North Dakota, at 2307 UTC; a tree down at Van Wert in Polk County, Georgia, at 2000 UTC; a 58 mph gust 4 SE of Frederick in Tillman County, Oklahoma, at 2158 UTC. Overnight into this morning, NWS Dodge City had a Flash Flood Warning covering parts of Grant, Hamilton, Kearny, Morton, and Stanton counties in southwestern Kansas until 500 AM CDT Thursday after 2 to 3 inches of rain. That Kansas water is yesterday-into-dawn work still on the books.
The Thursday morning Storm Updates already logged the New Mexico–Plains flood slight and Dakotas hail pulse. This afternoon post is the upgrade desk: WPC Moderate on southeast New Mexico, SPC Marginal still on the High Plains, watches still zero.
Pulse table
| Region | Main threats | SPC / NWS level | Status this afternoon |
|---|---|---|---|
| SE New Mexico (Lincoln / Chaves / Otero) | Flash flood, training 2–4 in cores | WPC Moderate + MPD 1375 | Live flood desk |
| Eastern TX Panhandle / western OK / western KS | Isolated damaging gusts, isolated hail | SPC Marginal | No watch; late-day cells |
| SW Kansas overnight counties | Already-fallen 2–3 in rain | Expired FF.W overnight | Aftermath / still wet |
| Hawaii County | TS wind, surf, heavy rain | Tropical Storm Warning (Nolo) | Live tropical warning |
| East Coast coastal low | Coastal flood, rip, gusty wind | WPC short-range language | Not a named landfall |
| CONUS watches | None | No valid SPC watch | Quiet watch board |
What this means for restoration teams
Southeast New Mexico is a water night. Saturated soils plus another 2 to 4 inches in a training core is wet drywall, crawlspaces, and a 24-to-48-hour mold clock. High Plains Marginal cells, if they verify, are roof, siding, and isolated tree-on-structure work — staff them as single-ZIP pulses. Hawaii County under Nolo is a separate tropical desk: wind-driven rain, surf, and outages on the Big Island, not a Gulf or Atlantic landfall. Do not mix those three crews in one dispatch board.
For teams near Roswell, Ruidoso, or Alamogordo: stage extractors and pumps before dark, not after the first flash-flood warning. For teams near Pampa, Altus, or Dodge City: one severe-warned cell is the ticket, not the whole outlook contour. Property owners should photograph damage in remaining daylight only if it is safe, call the carrier, and start extraction the same night if water is inside.
What this is not
This is not a regional derecho and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. Fay is mid-ocean. Polo is off Mexico. Odalys is well offshore in the eastern Pacific. Nolo is a Hawaii County warning, which is real U.S. land exposure, but it is not the CONUS headline. The work tonight, if it comes, will be scattered: a flooded arroyo in Lincoln or Chaves County, a downburst roof in the Texas Panhandle or western Oklahoma, leftover Kansas water from last night. That is the local-storm pattern this desk should staff.
Looking ahead
The SPC 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook issued 1228 PM CDT Thursday, September 24, 2026, valid 1200Z Friday through 1200Z Saturday, carries no severe thunderstorm areas. Summary: severe thunderstorms are not expected Friday. WPC Day 2 excessive rainfall, updated Thursday, holds a Marginal Risk from New Mexico into the Plains and over southeast New England. Day 3 convective language on the SPC homepage still shows a later Marginal window. Watch the next Storm Tracker update rather than assuming today’s Moderate flood contour is the last water line of the week.
Sources and how to verify
Primary sources dated Thursday, September 24, 2026: NOAA Storm Prediction Center 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook; SPC current watches page (no valid watches as of 2107 UTC); SPC today and September 23 storm-report pages; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook and 417 PM EDT discussion (Moderate Risk, southeast New Mexico); WPC Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1375 (Pecos River Valley); WPC Day 2 ERO; SPC 1730 UTC Day 2 outlook; National Hurricane Center / CPHC advisory board for Tropical Storm Nolo, Tropical Storm Fay, Hurricane Polo, and Hurricane Odalys; National Weather Service warning text including the overnight Dodge City flash-flood warning.
Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watch, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay. Related desk: Thursday morning Storm Updates.
Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.