Tropical: None · Severe: Slight · Flood: Slight
What Changed
- Compared with this morning’s pulse table (which carried an Enhanced risk over central Arizona): the latest SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook (0100 UTC October 22 / 6:00 PM PDT October 21, 2026, valid 220100Z–221200Z, issued 0800 PM CDT) holds a SLIGHT RISK of severe thunderstorms for much of Arizona into far southeast Nevada and southwest Utah. Large hail remains the primary threat, with a couple of tornadoes and damaging winds possible overnight. The categorical risk stepped down from the earlier Enhanced area focused on Flagstaff–Prescott–Sedona.
- Severe Thunderstorm Watches have been active across northern and central Arizona; earlier Tornado Watch 688 transitioned. Local storm reports through the day and evening include hail of 1–2.5 inches (golf ball to larger) near Flagstaff, Prescott, Deer Valley, Mesa, Safford, and Maricopa, plus measured gusts to 60+ mph. Flash Flood Warnings continue on higher terrain, burn scars, and dry washes in Arizona and southern Utah.
- WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated ~0015 UTC October 22, valid 01Z–12Z October 22) maintains a SLIGHT RISK over the Southwest and Four Corners, including Southern California ranges and much of Arizona. No upgrade to Moderate. A Marginal risk persists near the lower Texas coast.
- Subtropical Storm Josephine (Advisory 1 at 5 PM AST, subsequent updates) is centered near 37.4N 69.5W with 65 mph winds, moving north then accelerating northeast away from the United States. No tropical storm or hurricane watches or warnings are in effect on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America. Tropical Storm Vance remains far south of Mexico in the Eastern Pacific.
- The morning desk is linked under Sources. Arizona severe and Southwest flood lanes remain open as the restoration drivers. Quiet Pulse is closed.
Live Status
As of this Wednesday afternoon desk, October 21, 2026 (approximately 9:14 PM PDT / 12:14 AM EDT October 22 / 0414Z October 22), the SPC lists a Slight risk (Level 2 of 5) across much of Arizona, including the Phoenix metro (Phoenix, Mesa, Glendale, Chandler, Scottsdale), extending into far southeast Nevada and southwest Utah through the overnight. Marginal risk covers coastal central and southern California. Supercells are favored with elongated hodographs and 55–65 kt effective shear; large hail is the primary threat, with severe gusts and a couple of tornadoes possible where low-level curvature increases near the Mogollon Rim and local terrain.
The flood lane stays Slight. WPC continues the Slight risk of excessive rainfall over the Southwest and Four Corners, driven by a deep cyclone near the California coast scooping anomalous tropical moisture (IVT values of 300–700 kg/ms, PWAT 0.75–1.5 inches). Hourly rainfall amounts to 2–2.5 inches remain possible with training or backbuilding over terrain, burn scars, urban areas, slot canyons, and dry washes. Day 2 outlooks maintain Slight risk over portions of southeast Arizona.
The tropical lane is closed for U.S. land impact. Subtropical Storm Josephine is a few hundred miles offshore the Mid-Atlantic, forecast to move northeastward away from the United States with no coastal watches or warnings. Residual coastal flood and high-surf products from the offshore system continue along parts of the East Coast but do not meet Moderate or higher excessive rainfall thresholds. See the Josephine 2026 storm hub.
Hotspots
Central and northern Arizona (Mogollon Rim to Flagstaff–Prescott): Primary overnight severe threat. Ongoing and additional supercells capable of large hail (up to 2+ inches), damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes. Multiple warnings and reports have already verified across Yavapai, Coconino, and Navajo counties.
Phoenix metro and southern Arizona: Included in the Slight risk envelope. Multiple rounds of storms have produced hail and wind damage; continued supercell potential overnight as the axis shifts eastward.
Southern California coastal ranges and Transverse Ranges: Marginal severe (isolated gusts, low-end tornado potential) plus Slight flood risk as the Pacific cyclone approaches. Terrain-enhanced rainfall and burn-scar runoff are the primary concerns.
Just-Hit
Local storm reports and media accounts through the day and early evening document hail of 1–2.5 inches (golf-ball size and larger) near Flagstaff, Prescott, Deer Valley, Mesa, Safford, and Maricopa County, with reports of shattered windows, dented vehicles, and downed trees (including ponderosa pines in the Coconino National Forest). Tornado warnings were issued for parts of Coconino and Yavapai Counties. Flash Flood Warnings remain active over parts of southern Utah, Arizona burn scars, and higher terrain. No widespread major river flooding is reported, but the setup supports rapid runoff overnight.
Pulse Table
| Lane | Status | Notes (as of ~9:14 PM PDT / 0414Z 22 Oct 2026) |
|---|---|---|
| Tropical | None | Subtropical Storm Josephine ~37.4N 69.5W, 65 mph, accelerating NE away from the U.S. No coastal watches or warnings. TS Vance far south of Mexico. |
| Severe | Slight | SPC Day 1 (0100Z Oct 22): Slight over much of AZ into SE NV/SW UT for large hail, couple tornadoes, damaging winds. Marginal coastal CA. Active warnings and verifying LSRs. |
| Flood | Slight | WPC Day 1 Slight over Southwest/Four Corners including SoCal ranges and AZ. Hourly 2–2.5″ possible. Burn scars, urban areas, canyons primary concern. |
Rising Queries
- Arizona tornado watch
- Phoenix hail storm October 21
- Flagstaff severe weather
- Mogollon Rim storms
- Southern California flash flood
Restoration Read
Dominant ticket is Arizona severe (Slight overnight after daytime Enhanced verification with large hail and wind damage) plus Southwest Slight flood risk. Phoenix metro and central Arizona face continued supercell potential tonight. Southern California sees the moisture plume and terrain-enhanced rain. Monitor official sources for active warnings. This morning’s desk is linked under Sources.
What This Is Not
This is not an official forecast or warning. It is a desk summary of public products from the SPC, WPC, NWS, and NHC. No Moderate or higher flood risk is in effect on Day 1, no U.S. tropical watches or warnings are active, and the severe categorical risk has stepped down from Enhanced to Slight for the overnight period.
Looking Ahead
Thursday: SPC Day 2 carries a Slight risk over portions of southeast Arizona. WPC Day 2 continues Slight excessive rainfall potential over the Southwest. Josephine becomes post-tropical and accelerates farther northeast. The Pacific cyclone continues to influence California and the Southwest through Thursday, with the primary severe axis shifting eastward into Arizona and southwest New Mexico overnight into early Thursday.
Sources
- Morning desk: Storm Updates: Arizona Enhanced — Oct 21 Morning
- SPC Day 1 outlook, watches, mesoscale discussions
- WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook
- NHC Tropical Weather Outlook and Josephine advisories
- NWS watches and warnings
- Josephine 2026 storm hub
Informational only — not an official warning. Always confirm with the latest official forecasts from weather.gov, spc.noaa.gov, wpc.ncep.noaa.gov, and nhc.noaa.gov. Turn around, don’t drown.