This is a live Saturday afternoon snapshot of U.S. local-storm activity as of Saturday, September 26, 2026. The organized severe desk is a small Marginal over the southern Plains, not a national outbreak. The Storm Prediction Center 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook, issued 0250 PM CDT and valid 262000Z–271200Z, holds a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms late this afternoon and evening from western Oklahoma into northwest Texas. Summary language from Norman: isolated hail and strong outflow winds may accompany thunderstorms across portions of the southern Plains late this afternoon into the early evening. The outlined Marginal covers about 32,889 square miles and roughly 748,515 people, with larger centers including Wichita Falls, Lawton, Enid, Yukon, and Altus. No convective watches are valid. Restoration exposure this afternoon is split: tree and power-line wind on the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England High Wind Warnings, isolated hail and outflow gusts on the Oklahoma–northwest Texas Marginal, and water on the Weather Prediction Center Slight excessive-rainfall areas over Iowa and the coastal Northeast.
Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.
What is live this afternoon
No tornado or severe thunderstorm watches are current. The SPC watch page states no watches are valid. The last issued convective watch on the board is Watch 674, already expired. No mesoscale discussions are in effect. The 20Z Day 1 update kept the forecast generally on track and made only a slight southward expansion of the 5 percent wind probability. As of 1945 UTC, a deepening cumulus field was noted from West Texas into southwestern Oklahoma, with isolated thunderstorm development ongoing over the higher terrain of southwest Texas. Temperatures had warmed into the upper 80s to mid 90s F, with temperature-dewpoint spreads approaching 30 F in parts of northwest Texas. Steep low-level lapse rates may support isolated strong or damaging outflow gusts, with an instance of large hail also possible farther north where deep-layer shear is marginally stronger. A lack of stronger synoptic-scale forcing, generally modest mid-level flow, and poor mid-level lapse rates are expected to limit overall intensity and coverage.
The Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, updated 1556 UTC Saturday and valid 16Z Saturday through 12Z Sunday, holds a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall for parts of the coastal Northeast and Iowa. WPC notes a large nor’easter crawling off the Delaware and southern New Jersey coast, with a 986 mb center as of the 16Z discussion. Coastal and tidal flooding, aided by a full moon and the storm’s slow motion, are described as substantially more impactful than rainfall flooding. The Slight was expanded slightly to include urban northern New Jersey and urban central Connecticut. A higher-end Slight that had covered eastern Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and eastern Long Island was dropped with the 16Z update. All of the Northeast sits on the cold, northwest side of the storm, so instability for truly heavy convective rain is lacking. This remains a prolonged light-to-moderate rain event stacked on tides and high wind, not a warm-sector flash-flood outbreak.
Iowa’s Slight was left unchanged for central and southwestern Iowa. High-resolution guidance suggests showers and storms on the nose of a low-level jet this evening and tonight. Wet soils have lowered flash-flood guidance into the 1 to 1.5 inch per hour range. Instability is the limiter, struggling to exceed 500 J/kg. A Marginal Risk also remains over more sensitive parts of West Texas around the Davis Mountains and Stockton Plateau.
High Wind Warnings remain the live non-convective overlay on the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England coast. NWS Mount Holly continues a High Wind Warning until 6 AM EDT Sunday for the Delaware beaches and coastal New Jersey zones including Eastern Monmouth, Atlantic Coastal Cape May, Coastal Atlantic, and Coastal Ocean, with north winds 30 to 40 mph and gusts up to 60 mph. NWS Boston/Norton continues High Wind Warnings until 8 AM EDT Sunday for portions of eastern, northeastern, and southeastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island, with northeast winds 20 to 30 mph and gusts up to 50 to 60 mph depending on zone. Those products are trees and power lines, not SPC severe thunderstorm watches.
Hotspot 1 — Western Oklahoma into northwest Texas
This is the only categorical severe area on the Saturday Day 1 map. The 20Z outlook keeps isolated hail and strong outflow as the hazards late afternoon into early evening. Surface-based storms can still form where heating wins west of leftover morning cloud from southwest Oklahoma into Kansas. Cities inside the Marginal include Wichita Falls, Lawton, Enid, Yukon, and Altus. Isolated thunderstorms were already firing on the higher terrain of southwest Texas by mid-afternoon.
Restoration read: isolated wind and a possible hail stone, not a watch overlay. Staff lightning and a few downed limbs if a cell organizes near Lawton, Altus, or the Wichita Falls side of the Red River. Do not pre-position as if a Slight or Enhanced is coming. Photograph any hail or wind damage in daylight if it is safe.
Hotspot 2 — Jersey Shore, Delaware beaches, southern New England
The live work here is High Wind Warnings plus coastal and tidal flooding under a slow nor’easter, not an SPC convective watch. Mount Holly holds the warning through 6 AM Sunday on the Delaware beaches and the New Jersey coastal strip from Sandy Hook and Eastern Monmouth through Atlantic City, Long Beach Island, and Cape May. Boston/Norton holds through 8 AM Sunday from the North Shore and Boston through the South Coast, Cape Cod, the Islands, and Rhode Island. WPC’s Slight rainfall risk still covers parts of the coastal Northeast, including urban northern New Jersey and urban central Connecticut, but the 16Z discussion is explicit: coastal and tidal flooding matter more than the rain totals.
Restoration read: trees, wires, and wet basements on a long-duration coastal blow. Power outages are the expected ticket language in the NWS impact statements. Do not drive inundated coastal roads at high tide. This is not a hurricane landfall and not a derecho. Hurricane Nolo is a Hawaii desk. Hurricane Polo is a Baja California Sur forecast, not a U.S. East Coast landfall.
Hotspot 3 — Central and southwestern Iowa
WPC left the Slight Risk unchanged at 16Z for central and southwestern Iowa. Cell training along a northwest-southeast stationary front is still possible this evening and tonight on already wet soils. Earlier discussion language also kept eastern Nebraska and far northern Missouri in the broader rain corridor, with some 24-hour amounts able to reach or exceed 2 inches where storms train. Instability stays weak. Occasional mainly elevated thunderstorms remain possible from northeast Oklahoma northward to Iowa per the SPC Day 1 discussion, but that is not a categorical severe area.
Restoration read: water on poor drainage and low crossings tonight, not hail or a wind swath. Check Saturday night into Sunday morning for ponding. Turn around, don’t drown.
Just hit
SPC today’s storm reports for the 1200 UTC September 26 through 1159 UTC September 27 window show no tornado reports, no hail reports, and no wind reports as of this afternoon desk. The severe board is still empty for today’s convective day.
The work that is already a ticket is coastal wind and water on the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England side of the nor’easter, plus leftover runoff from the last several days on the southern High Plains. Those are NWS high-wind and flood products, not today’s SPC local storm reports. Do not reprint Friday’s New Mexico flash-flood warnings as Saturday LSRs.
Pulse table
| Region | Main threats | SPC / NWS / WPC level | Status this afternoon |
|---|---|---|---|
| Western OK / northwest TX | Isolated hail, outflow wind | SPC 2000 UTC Marginal | Live late afternoon / evening |
| DE beaches / NJ coast / southern New England | High wind, trees, tidal flood | NWS High Wind Warnings; WPC Slight rain | Warnings into Sunday morning |
| Central / southwestern Iowa | Training rain, isolated runoff | WPC Slight | Evening / overnight |
| West Texas mountains | Localized heavy rain | WPC Marginal | Isolated |
| CONUS severe watches | None | No watches; last was 674 | Quiet |
| SPC LSRs today | None | 0 tornado / 0 hail / 0 wind | Quiet |
What this means for restoration teams
Saturday afternoon is a split desk. The convective piece is a small Marginal from western Oklahoma into northwest Texas with no watch and an empty LSR board. Treat that as isolated cells, not a regional wind event. The live volume sits on the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England High Wind Warnings: trees, wires, and wet basements under a slow nor’easter. Iowa is an overnight water check on already wet ground.
Interior water still starts a 24–48 hour mold clock. Photograph in daylight if it is safe. Do not drive flooded coastal roads at high tide or low crossings in Iowa tonight. Hurricane Nolo remains a Hawaii flood-and-wind desk south of the Big Island. Hurricane Polo is forecast for Baja California Sur, not the U.S. mainland. Tropical Storm Gonzalo and Tropical Depression Fay are well out in the eastern and central Atlantic. Do not mix those crew maps with the Jersey Shore wind pile or the Oklahoma Marginal.
What this is not
This is not a regional derecho and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. SPC has one Marginal area and no Slight or higher. No convective watch is up. No mesoscale discussion is up. Today’s LSR board is empty. The nor’easter is a high-wind and coastal-flood event on the cold side of the low, not a tropical cyclone making landfall on the East Coast. That is the local-storm pattern this desk should staff.
Looking ahead
The SPC Day 2 Convective Outlook, issued 1247 AM CDT Saturday and valid 271200Z–281200Z Sunday, carries no severe thunderstorm areas. Summary: severe thunderstorms are not expected Sunday. An upper low is expected to meander over the lower Hudson Valley while ridging prevails over the Plains. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible from the Great Basin into the Plains, but overlapping buoyancy and shear look limited. Day 3 also has no severe thunderstorm areas. Sunday’s restoration check is leftover Mid-Atlantic wind damage and any Iowa runoff that verifies overnight, not a new severe outbreak.
Sources and how to verify
Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook for Saturday, September 26, 2026 (issued 0250 PM CDT); SPC current watch page (no watches valid; last issued Watch 674); SPC mesoscale discussion page (none in effect); SPC storm reports for 1200 UTC September 26 through 1159 UTC September 27 (no tornado, hail, or wind reports at this desk); Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook discussion updated 1153 AM EDT Saturday; NWS Mount Holly High Wind Warning text; NWS Boston/Norton High Wind Warning text; SPC Day 2 Convective Outlook issued 1247 AM CDT Saturday; National Hurricane Center active-system summaries for Nolo, Polo, Gonzalo, and Fay.
Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watch, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay. Morning desk: Saturday morning, September 26 storm updates.
Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.