Tag: California storms

  • Storm Updates: Isaias Remnants & Rachel — Oct 10 Morning

    Storm Updates: Isaias Remnants & Rachel — Oct 10 Morning

    Tropical: Post-Tropical Isaias · Severe: Slight + Tornado Watch 679 · Flood: Moderate

    What changed

    • Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias remains near 33.5N 86.9W as of WPC Advisory 17 at 4:00 p.m. CDT Saturday, October 10, 2026, about 5 miles west of Birmingham, Alabama, moving NNE at 15 mph with maximum sustained winds of 30 mph and minimum pressure 1007 mb. NHC has issued its final advisory; WPC continues flood tracking. All tropical warnings discontinued. Position advanced from earlier Saturday near 32.8N 86.8W at 35 mph.
    • SPC Tornado Watch 679 remains in effect until 8:00 p.m. EDT for portions of eastern Georgia and southern/eastern South Carolina. SPC 2000 UTC Day 1 Outlook (issued 3:00 p.m. CDT) maintains Slight Risk focused on eastern GA into southern and eastern SC for a few tornadoes into this evening, with significant tornado probability along the GA/SC border. Active Tornado Warnings issued this afternoon for Barnwell, Aiken, Burke, and related counties (radar-indicated and observed).
    • WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 1612 UTC) holds Moderate Risk across the Southern Appalachians (NE GA into Upstate SC and western NC) and portions of Southern California. Upslope totals of 3–5+ inches, locally 6–10 inches, remain the peak concern. Flash Flood Warnings active in portions of the Southeast.
    • Tropical Storm Rachel as of NHC Advisory 55A around 5:00 p.m. PDT is near 27.4N 116.7W, moving NNE at 30 mph with 65 mph winds and 989 mb. Tropical Storm Watch continues for the Southern California coast from the U.S./Mexico border to the San Diego/Orange County line. Center expected to approach northern Baja this evening.
    • No new NHC hurricane or storm-surge warnings for U.S. land. Residual Flood Watches, High Wind Warnings, and Wind Advisories persist in the Southeast and Southern Appalachians; Coastal Flood Warning and Flood Watch remain in Southern California.

    Live status

    As of Saturday afternoon, October 10, 2026, Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias continues north-northeast across central Alabama near Birmingham and is forecast to accelerate northeast into the Tennessee Valley while dissipating. Rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches with localized maxima of 10 inches are possible across the Southern Appalachians from northeast Georgia into the western Carolinas and from the upper coast of South Carolina into eastern North Carolina. Additional 1 to 2 inches are expected across the remainder of the Southeast into northern Florida. Flash, urban, and river flooding remains possible, with considerable impacts including landslides across the Southern Appalachians. Significant river flooding on the western Florida Panhandle will crest today through Sunday.

    Tornado Watch 679 is live for eastern Georgia and southern/eastern South Carolina until 8:00 p.m. EDT. SPC notes the risk for a few tornadoes will continue into this evening across parts of eastern Georgia into southern and eastern South Carolina, with the greatest potential near the GA/SC border and conditional support for a strong tornado. Tornado Warnings have been issued this afternoon for radar-indicated and confirmed rotation in counties including Barnwell SC, Aiken SC, and Burke GA. A few severe wind gusts may also occur in parts of the Desert Southwest associated with Rachel interaction.

    WPC maintains the Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall on the Southern Appalachians and on portions of Southern California as moisture associated with Rachel is drawn northeastward. Concentrated precipitation is expected later today into tonight as Rachel approaches the northern Baja/Southern California coast. Rainfall of 1 to 3 inches, locally up to 5 inches, is expected in portions of the Southwest this weekend, supporting increasing flash-flood coverage.

    Hotspots

    Southern Appalachians (northeast Georgia, Upstate South Carolina, western North Carolina): Primary flood hotspot under the WPC Moderate Risk. Strong upslope flow supports 3–5+ inches, with maximum totals of 6–10 inches possible across far western North Carolina into the Upstate of South Carolina. Considerable flash flooding and landslides are possible. High wind warnings remain in elevated terrain.

    Eastern Georgia into western and southern South Carolina: SPC Slight Risk plus Tornado Watch 679 for tornadoes and isolated damaging winds. Warm-sector thunderstorms can produce brief tornadoes, especially near the Georgia/South Carolina border this afternoon into evening. Active Tornado Warnings and Flash Flood Warnings remain in effect in portions of the area this afternoon.

    Southern California coast and Desert Southwest: Tropical Storm Watch on the San Diego County coastal areas. Moisture from Rachel drives the WPC Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall over portions of Southern California, with increasing flash-flood potential later today into tonight. Marginal severe wind gust risk noted by SPC in parts of the Lower Colorado River Valley into south-central Arizona. Coastal Flood Warning and Flood Watch in effect.

    Central Alabama / Florida Panhandle residual: Center of the post-tropical system is near Birmingham. Residual heavy rain and isolated flash flooding continue along the inland track and in leftover banding. Coastal tropical warnings have ended; high wind warnings and wind advisories remain for parts of the Southeast and elevated terrain.

    Pulse table

    RegionMain threatsSPC / NWS / WPC levelStatus this morning
    Southern Appalachians (NE GA / Upstate SC / W NC)Flash flood, landslides, 3–10 in upslopeWPC Moderate excessive rainfallLive, ramping today
    Eastern GA / western & southern SCBrief tornadoes, damaging wind, flash floodSPC Slight + Tornado Watch 679 to 8 p.m. EDT; active Tornado & Flash Flood WarningsLive watch and warnings, afternoon–evening peak
    Southern California coast / Desert SouthwestHeavy rain, flash flood, TS winds possible, coastal floodWPC Moderate; TS Watch (San Diego County); Coastal Flood Warning / Flood WatchIncreasing tonight
    Central AL / FL Panhandle residualResidual heavy rain, isolated flood, wind gustsPost-tropical 30 mph near Birmingham; high wind warningsOngoing, weakening
    Rest of CONUS severe boardNo other organized severeMarginal only in SW; no other watchesQuiet elsewhere

    Rising queries

    • huracán isaias
    • isaias remnants flood
    • tornado watch South Carolina
    • tropical storm Rachel San Diego
    • southern Appalachians flooding

    What this means for restoration teams

    The coastal wind and surge ticket from Friday night landfall near Destin is largely closed. Immediate work shifts inland to freshwater extraction and tree/road clearance under residual rain bands and the Southern Appalachians Moderate Risk. Treat any tornado reports in the Georgia–South Carolina Slight Risk and Tornado Watch 679 (including current warnings) as narrow local surveys. On the West Coast, stage for potential flash flooding under the Rachel moisture and Tropical Storm Watch; do not treat San Diego County as a full hurricane landfall. Distinguish residual Florida Panhandle/Alabama freshwater tickets from new Appalachian upslope work and from the separate Southwest pulse.

    What this is not

    This is not an active hurricane or tropical-storm warning on the Gulf or Atlantic coast. All Storm Surge and Tropical Storm Warnings for Isaias have been discontinued. It is not a plains or Midwest severe outbreak. Rachel is a tropical-storm watch threat for extreme Southern California, not a major hurricane landfall. The organized hazards are the SPC Slight tornado risk and Tornado Watch 679 (with active warnings) in Georgia and South Carolina, the WPC Moderate excessive-rainfall risks in the Southern Appalachians and Southern California, and residual inland flooding from the post-tropical remnants of Isaias.

    Looking ahead

    Isaias remnants are expected to continue north-northeast into the Tennessee Valley and dissipate on Sunday. SPC Day 2 outlook maintains a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over portions of North Carolina, Virginia, and southeast Maryland for Sunday afternoon and evening. Rachel is forecast to move ashore near the U.S./Mexico border tonight and weaken rapidly over the Southwest on Sunday, likely becoming post-tropical by Sunday morning. Watch the next Storm Tracker update for verification of the Appalachian rainfall totals and any expansion of the California products.

    Sources and how to verify

    Primary sources, dated Saturday, October 10, 2026: NOAA Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Convective Outlook (2000 UTC, Slight Risk eastern Georgia into southern and eastern South Carolina) and Tornado Watch 679; active NWS Tornado Warnings and Flash Flood Warnings in GA/SC; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook and Discussion (Moderate Risk Southern Appalachians and Southern California, updated 1612 UTC); WPC Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias Advisory 17 (4:00 p.m. CDT); National Hurricane Center Tropical Storm Rachel Advisory 55A. Prior desk: Friday evening Isaias landfall near Destin.

    Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook and local storm reports, WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay, and nhc.noaa.gov for residual Isaias products and the latest Rachel advisory.

    Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

    Storm hub: Hurricane Isaias 2026 | Tropical Storm Rachel 2026

  • Storm Updates: Southwest Flood Moderate, Dakotas Marginal — Monday, September 28, 2026

    Monday afternoon desk. Water still owns the Southwest. A small Marginal is now on the northern Plains. Not an NWS warning.

    This is a live Monday afternoon snapshot of U.S. local-storm activity as of Monday, September 28, 2026. The morning desk opened with a blank severe map. The Storm Prediction Center 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook, issued 0258 PM CDT, now carries a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of western and northern South Dakota and vicinity. No convective watches are valid. The last issued watch remains number 0674.

    The Weather Prediction Center still holds a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall over portions of the Southwest and Four Corners. The 16Z update expanded that Moderate southwest down the Colorado River to include the California–Arizona–Nevada tripoint. Restoration exposure this afternoon is water first on already wet Southwest ground, then isolated hail and gusty wind on the Dakotas Marginal, plus a short radar-indicated severe thunderstorm warning that fired over San Bernardino County, California. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

    What is live this afternoon

    SPC summary language at 0258 PM CDT: isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur this afternoon and evening across parts of western and northern South Dakota and vicinity. The 20Z update notes stronger surface heating and less cloud cover near northwestern South Dakota, with temperatures into the low and mid 70s F downstream of developing convection near the Wyoming–South Dakota border. Storms were expected to form near the Black Hills around 20–22Z and spread east-northeast along a weak surface front. Stronger cells may produce isolated hail and gusty winds before becoming elevated across northern South Dakota and southern North Dakota later tonight.

    Mesoscale Discussion 2330, issued 0240 PM CDT and valid through 2145 UTC, covers the western South Dakota vicinity. Concerning: severe potential, watch unlikely. Watch-issuance probability is 5 percent. SPC language: isolated strong to severe storms may produce sporadic hail through evening. Most probable peak hail size up to 1.25 inches. Most probable peak wind gust up to 60 mph. That is a local pulse, not a watch day.

    WPC Day 1 excessive rainfall, updated 1537 UTC Monday and valid 16Z Monday through 12Z Tuesday, remains the national water headline. A Moderate Risk covers portions of the Southwest. The 16Z update expanded the Moderate to the CA/AZ/NV tripoint after coordination with NWS Las Vegas. Marginal and Slight areas were expanded north along the Nevada–Utah border. A separate Slight Risk remains over parts of North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota from training showers on the low-level jet. WPC notes much of the ongoing Arizona rain has been stratiform, but soils are already wet and the terrain is flashy.

    National Hurricane Center as of the 2:00 PM MST Monday Polo advisory: Hurricane Polo is still a major hurricane near 25.0°N, 113.0°W, moving northeast at 12 mph, 115 mph maximum sustained winds, 963 mb. Life-threatening winds and flash flooding are beginning over portions of Baja California Sur. That is a Mexico land desk plus a U.S. flood-moisture feed. It is not a California or Arizona hurricane landfall. Hurricane Nolo remains a Central Pacific / Papahanaumokuakea desk. Tropical Storm Rachel is paralleling the southwest Mexico coast. Atlantic Tropical Depression Fay and Tropical Storm Hanna are not a CONUS land-threat desk this afternoon.

    Hotspot 1 — Southwest and Four Corners flood Moderate

    This is still today’s organized desk. Predecessor moisture from Polo and remnants of Odalys continues to lift north ahead of a mid-level shortwave moving from the California Valleys toward the lower Colorado River Valley. WPC guidance still supports a widespread 1 to 3 inches across the Four Corners region on soils already near saturation. South- and west-facing slopes along the Mogollon Rim and the San Juans remain favored. Burn scars, slot canyons, and rocky fans fail first.

    Counties and terrain to watch this afternoon: Mogollon Rim and higher terrain in Arizona; western and southwestern New Mexico including burn-scar drainages near Lordsburg; the San Juan Mountains and adjacent southwest Colorado; southern Nevada valleys; and the newly expanded Moderate near the CA/AZ/NV tripoint and the lower Colorado River. WPC also flagged slow-moving lines along the Nevada–Utah border.

    Restoration read: water first. Stage pumps, extractors, and sandbags on known flood ZIPs and burn-scar alluvial fans. Photograph crawlspaces and finished basements as soon as it is safe. Do not treat this as a wind event unless a local warning says otherwise.

    Hotspot 2 — Western and northern South Dakota Marginal

    This is the only categorical severe area on the current Day 1 map. SPC expects storms to form near the Black Hills and move east-northeast along a weak surface trough and front. MD 2330 keeps a watch off the table. Isolated quarter-to-golf-ball hail and 60 mph gusts are the staffed threats, not a derecho and not a tornado outbreak. Aberdeen and Rapid City county warning areas own the pulse. Northern South Dakota into southern North Dakota trends more elevated after dark.

    Restoration read: isolated hail and tree work if a cell verifies. Do not pre-position a regional CAT team on a 5-percent watch probability.

    Hotspot 3 — Lower Colorado / San Bernardino isolated SVR

    SPC still withholds unconditional severe probabilities for southeast California, southern Nevada, and western Arizona, but NWS Las Vegas issued a Severe Thunderstorm Warning at 129 PM PDT Monday for San Bernardino County until 215 PM PDT. Radar-indicated hazards: 60 mph gusts and quarter-size hail near Amboy and Interstate 40 between mile markers 68 and 98, storm moving northeast at 20 mph. That warning is a short local pulse inside the WPC flood overlay, not an SPC watch.

    Restoration read: check I-40 desert ZIPs and any hail-struck vehicles after the cell passes. The bigger ticket in that same corridor remains flash-flood water, not wind.

    Just hit

    SPC local storm reports for the current 1200 UTC Monday to 1159 UTC Tuesday window showed no tornado, hail, or wind reports as of this afternoon desk. That board resets at 12Z. Last night’s preliminary reports from the 27/1200–28/1159 UTC window remain the open tickets:

    • 2216 UTC Sunday — 1.00-inch hail 20 miles south of Merriman, Cherry County, Nebraska. Vehicle damage reported. (NWS North Platte)
    • 2330 UTC Sunday — 1.00-inch hail 2 miles north-northwest of Willow Park, Parker County, Texas. (NWS Fort Worth)
    • 0032 UTC Monday — 1.00-inch hail 24 miles north of Whitman, Cherry County, Nebraska. (NWS North Platte)
    • 1440 UTC Sunday — 66 mph gust 10 miles northwest of Okobojo Creek Recreation Area, Sully County, South Dakota. Mesonet. (NWS Aberdeen)
    • 2300 UTC Sunday — 60 mph gust 22 miles west-southwest of Roosevelt, Sutton County, Texas. West Texas Mesonet Sonora 23SE. (NWS San Angelo)
    • 2320 UTC Sunday — Unknown-speed wind 4 miles north-northwest of Willow Park, Parker County, Texas. Large tree limbs down on FM 730. (NWS Fort Worth)

    No tornado reports were received in that window. Sunday evening Severe Thunderstorm Warnings over southwestern Cherry County, Nebraska, and northeastern Parker County, Texas, have expired. Today’s San Bernardino warning is a live local product, not yet an LSR.

    Pulse table

    RegionMain threatsSPC / NWS / WPC levelStatus this afternoon
    Southwest / Four CornersFlash flood, training rain, burn-scar runoffWPC Moderate excessive rainfallLive through Tuesday 12Z; outline expanded to CA/AZ/NV tripoint
    Western / northern South DakotaIsolated hail, gusty windSPC Marginal; MD 2330 watch unlikelyThis afternoon into evening
    Eastern Dakotas / NW MinnesotaTraining showers, localized floodWPC Slight excessive rainfallOngoing
    SE CA / southern NV / western AZNumerous storms, isolated wet downburst or SVRGeneral thunder; local SVR San BernardinoToday into evening
    Cherry County, NE / Parker County, TXQuarter hail, tree limbsExpired SVR / Sunday LSRsJust-hit cleanup
    PoloBaja wind and flood; U.S. moisture feedNHC major hurricane near Baja SurNot a CONUS landfall

    What this means for restoration teams

    The national severe map is no longer blank, but it is still a small Marginal. The work that actually fills trucks today is WPC Moderate water on the Southwest and Four Corners. Saturated soils plus burn-scar fans do not need a supercell. Stage extraction before the next training core, not after the first flash-flood warning.

    South Dakota is isolated hail and outflow if the Black Hills cells organize. MD 2330 says watch unlikely. Staff it as a local pulse. Cherry County and Willow Park remain yesterday’s hail and limb tickets. Photograph vehicles and roofs in daylight if it is still safe.

    Polo is a Baja and Sonora hurricane desk plus a U.S. flood-moisture feed. Do not staff it as a California or Arizona landfalling hurricane. Nolo is a Central Pacific desk.

    What this is not

    This is not a Slight or Enhanced severe day, not a derecho, and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. Work today, if it verifies, is flash flooding on the Four Corners Moderate, a narrow Dakotas Marginal, and one desert SVR in San Bernardino County. That is the local-storm pattern this desk should staff.

    Looking ahead

    SPC Day 2, issued 1215 PM CDT Monday and valid 12Z Tuesday through 12Z Wednesday, is a Marginal Risk from southern and eastern New Mexico into west Texas. Isolated severe gusts and a couple of tornadoes are possible Tuesday afternoon through early Wednesday as Polo remnants eject toward far west Texas and southeast New Mexico. Day 3 is already a Slight. WPC keeps Moderate flood language into Tuesday over parts of the Southwest, central and southern Rockies, and southern High Plains. Watch Tuesday morning Storm Tracker rather than assuming today’s small map is the week.

    Sources and how to verify

    Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center Sep 28, 2026 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook; SPC Mesoscale Discussion 2330; SPC Current Watches page (no watches valid as of 1414 UTC Monday); SPC local storm reports for 28/1200 UTC–present and 27/1200–28/1159 UTC; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook updated 1537 UTC Mon Sep 28; National Hurricane Center Hurricane Polo Advisory 33 at 2:00 PM MST Mon Sep 28; NWS Las Vegas Severe Thunderstorm Warning for San Bernardino County issued 129 PM PDT; National Weather Service warning text compiled at weather.gov.

    Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watches, MDs, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay. Morning desk for this calendar day: Storm Updates: Southwest Flood Moderate, Quiet Severe Pulse — Monday, September 28, 2026 (Morning).

    Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.