As of this Sunday evening desk, October 25, 2026 (approximately 9:14 PM PDT / 04:14 UTC October 26), the national picture remains a Quiet Pulse. The Storm Prediction Center holds a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms from New Mexico into far west Texas and the western Texas Panhandle on the Day 1 Convective Outlook (2000 UTC update, valid through 1200Z October 26). Isolated large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a tornado or two remain possible this evening into the overnight. No convective watches are currently valid. The Weather Prediction Center holds a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over portions of the central and southern High Plains. No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning is in effect on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America.
Tropical: None · Severe: Marginal · Flood: Slight
What Changed
- Compared with this morning’s pulse table (quiet-pulse-2026-10-25-morning: Severe: Marginal · Flood: Slight · Tropical: None): SPC Day 1 (2000Z October 25 / 2:55 PM CDT) continues a MARGINAL RISK of severe thunderstorms from New Mexico into far west Texas and the western Texas Panhandle (roughly 92,000 sq mi, 2.6 million people including Albuquerque, Santa Fe, Rio Rancho, Roswell). Isolated large hail, damaging gusts, and a tornado or two possible this evening. No active Severe Thunderstorm Watches. Threat remains isolated.
- WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 0103 UTC October 26 / 9:03 PM EDT October 25, valid 01Z–12Z October 26) maintains a SLIGHT RISK for portions of the central and southern High Plains (Far West Texas through the Panhandle into southwestern Kansas). Florida Slight Risk was removed and reduced to Marginal along the coast. Training storms and saturated soils support localized flash flooding. No Moderate or above.
- Local NWS offices continue to issue Flash Flood Warnings (e.g., Eddy County NM, Lincoln/Chaves Counties) and occasional Severe Thunderstorm Warnings. Flood Watches remain in effect across portions of New Mexico on saturated soils from multi-day rainfall.
- No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America. Atlantic basin remains quiet. Tropical Storm Vance (Eastern Pacific) and Tropical Storm Olana (Central Pacific) pose no U.S. land threat.
- Nothing elevated any lane beyond Quiet Pulse criteria. Severe remains Marginal, flood remains Slight, tropical remains None. Primary residual ticket is isolated hail/wind and flash-flood runoff across New Mexico and far west Texas.
Live Status
SPC Day 1 lists a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) of severe thunderstorms for New Mexico into far west Texas and the western Texas Panhandle. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening and overnight. Primary threats are large hail and damaging wind gusts, with a tornado or two possible. Greater buoyancy exists across southeastern New Mexico and far west Texas. No convective watches are active. Mesoscale Discussions earlier in the day (including MD 2409) indicated watch unlikely.
NWS Albuquerque and neighboring offices have active or recent Flash Flood Warnings for areas including southwestern Eddy County (Carlsbad Caverns area), southeastern Lincoln and west-central Chaves Counties, with radar-indicated heavy rain of 1–4 inches. Flood Watches cover portions of east-central, northeast, and southeast New Mexico through late tonight. Saturated soils elevate runoff risk in arroyos, low-water crossings, and urban areas.
WPC maintains the Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over the central and southern High Plains. Neighborhood probabilities support additional 1–2 inch amounts with training storms. Florida risk stepped down to Marginal. No Moderate or higher ERO.
Hotspots
- Central and eastern New Mexico (Albuquerque, Santa Fe, Roswell, Carlsbad corridor): Marginal severe residual and WPC Slight. Isolated hail, wind, and brief tornado possible. Active Flash Flood Warnings and Flood Watches on saturated soils; river flooding residual.
- Far west Texas and western Texas Panhandle: Marginal severe overlap. Isolated damaging wind and hail possible. Residual urban and arroyo runoff risk under the Slight ERO.
- Central and southern High Plains (into southwestern Kansas): WPC Slight Risk for excessive rainfall. Training storms support localized flash flooding on saturated ground.
Just-Hit
Flash Flood Warnings active or recent in Eddy, Lincoln, and Chaves Counties with 1–4 inches of rain and ongoing or imminent flooding of roads, low-lying areas, and arroyos. Flood Watches continue across multiple New Mexico zones. Occasional Severe Thunderstorm Warnings for hail and gusts. No confirmed significant tornado reports this evening. Localized flooding and isolated severe impacts continue in the Southwest. San Juan River residual flooding from prior crest near Shiprock.
Pulse Table
| Lane | Status | Notes (as of ~9:14 PM PDT / 04:14 UTC Oct 26 2026) |
|---|---|---|
| Tropical | None | No tropical cyclones in the Atlantic. TS Vance (EPAC) and TS Olana (CPAC) pose no U.S. land threat. No coastal or Gulf watches or warnings. |
| Severe | Marginal | SPC Day 1 Marginal Risk over NM into far west TX and western TX Panhandle. No active watches. Isolated hail/wind/tornado possible this evening/overnight. |
| Flood | Slight | WPC Day 1 Slight Risk for central/southern High Plains. Active FFWs and Flood Watches in NM. Saturated soils. Florida now Marginal. No Moderate or higher. |
Restoration Read
Residual restoration ticket is isolated hail and wind damage to roofs, vehicles, siding, and trees across New Mexico and far west Texas under the Marginal Risk. Secondary and more widespread ticket is localized flash flooding and rapid runoff in urban corridors (Albuquerque, Roswell, Carlsbad, El Paso), small streams, canyons, arroyos, and burn scars on already saturated soils. High Plains training rain supports additional runoff. No widespread catastrophic damage expected.
What This Is Not
This is a Quiet Pulse. No SPC Slight or higher severe risk on the latest Day 1 outlook. No WPC Moderate or higher excessive rainfall. No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America. This desk summarizes public products from the SPC, WPC, NWS, and NHC. It is not an official warning.
Looking Ahead
Monday (Day 2): SPC shows no severe thunderstorm areas forecast. WPC Day 1 threat winds down overnight into early Monday. Residual flash-flood sensitivity remains where soils are saturated. Monitor local NWS offices for any lingering warnings.
Rising Queries
Trends unreachable.
Sources
Official products: Storm Prediction Center (Day 1 Outlook 2000Z Oct 25), Weather Prediction Center (Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook 0103Z Oct 26), National Weather Service (watches, warnings, flood statements), National Hurricane Center (Atlantic quiet; TS Vance and TS Olana). Morning desk: quiet-pulse-2026-10-25-morning.
Informational only — not an official weather warning. Always check weather.gov for local forecasts and warnings. Turn around, don’t drown.
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