Tag: Alabama storms

Storm Updates: Appalachians Flood & Rachel — Oct 11 Morning

Tropical: Post-Tropical Isaias & Rachel · Severe: Marginal · Flood: Moderate

What Changed

Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias advanced to near 35.0N 86.7W as of WPC Advisory 18 at 10:00 PM CDT Saturday, October 10, 2026, about 75 miles south of Nashville, Tennessee, moving northeast at 16 mph with maximum sustained winds of 25 mph and minimum pressure 1009 mb. Continued flood risk across the Southeast and Southern Appalachians.
Tornado Watch 679 for eastern Georgia and southern/eastern South Carolina expired at 8:00 PM EDT after verifying with multiple confirmed tornadoes. SPC Day 1 Outlook (0100 UTC October 11) now carries a Marginal Risk for isolated tornado threat across parts of the Carolinas this evening and few severe wind gusts in the Desert Southwest.
Post-Tropical Cyclone Rachel is near 30.0N 116.5W as of NHC Advisory 56 at 8:00 PM PDT, about 40 miles west of Punta Baja, Mexico, and 190 miles south of San Diego, moving north-northeast at 36 mph with 60 mph winds and 987 mb. Expected to move onshore over northern Baja tonight and dissipate early Sunday. Tropical Storm Watch remains for the Southern California coast from the U.S./Mexico border to the San Diego/Orange County line.
WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 2331 UTC) maintains Moderate Risk across the Southern Appalachians and portions of Southern California. Additional 2–5 inches, locally up to 10 inches, possible in upslope regions.
No new NHC hurricane or storm-surge warnings for U.S. land. Active Flash Flood Warnings in portions of the Carolinas; Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Arizona associated with Rachel moisture.

Live Status

As of late Saturday evening into early Sunday morning, October 11, 2026 (around 8:00 p.m. PDT / 11:00 p.m. EDT), Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias continues northeast across Tennessee toward the central Appalachians while dissipating. Additional rainfall of 2 to 5 inches with localized maxima of 10 inches remains possible across the Southern Appalachians from the western Carolinas into western Virginia. Flash, urban, and river flooding is possible, with considerable impacts including landslides across the southern Appalachians. A couple of tornadoes remain possible tonight across eastern Georgia and the Carolinas.

Post-Tropical Cyclone Rachel is accelerating north-northeast toward northern Baja California and is forecast to move onshore tonight before dissipating early Sunday over the southwestern United States. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area on the Southern California coast beginning tonight or early Sunday. Rainfall of 1 to 3 inches, locally up to 5 inches, is expected across portions of the Southwest, supporting flash and urban flooding. Strong gusty winds are expected to spread over interior portions of the Southwest, especially higher terrain.

Hotspots

Southern Appalachians (northeast Georgia, Upstate South Carolina, western North Carolina, western Virginia): Primary flood hotspot under the WPC Moderate Risk. Strong upslope flow continues to support heavy totals. Considerable flash flooding and landslides are possible. High Wind Warnings remain in elevated terrain.

Carolinas: SPC Marginal Risk for isolated tornado threat this evening into overnight with rotating cells in the warm sector. Flash Flood Warnings active in portions of western North Carolina and South Carolina.

Southern California coast and Desert Southwest: Tropical Storm Watch on the San Diego County coastal areas. Moisture from Rachel drives the WPC Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall over portions of Southern California. Marginal severe wind gust risk in the Desert Southwest. Coastal Flood Warning and Flood Watch in effect. Active Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Arizona.

Tennessee Valley residual: Center of the post-tropical system is about 75 miles south of Nashville. Residual heavy rain and isolated flash flooding continue along the track.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS / WPC level	Status this morning
Southern Appalachians (NE GA / Upstate SC / W NC / W VA)	Flash flood, landslides, 2–10 in upslope	WPC Moderate excessive rainfall	Live, ongoing into Sunday
Carolinas	Isolated tornado, flash flood	SPC Marginal; active Flash Flood Warnings	Evening into overnight
Southern California coast / Desert Southwest	Heavy rain, flash flood, TS winds possible, coastal flood	WPC Moderate; TS Watch (San Diego County); Coastal Flood Warning / Flood Watch	Increasing tonight into Sunday
Tennessee Valley residual	Residual heavy rain, isolated flood	Post-tropical 25 mph near Nashville	Ongoing, dissipating
Rest of CONUS severe board	No other organized severe	Marginal only in SW and Carolinas; no watches	Quiet elsewhere

Rising queries

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What this means for restoration teams

The coastal wind and surge ticket from Friday night landfall near Destin is closed. Immediate work remains inland freshwater extraction and tree/road clearance under residual rain bands and the Southern Appalachians Moderate Risk. Treat any remaining tornado reports in the Carolinas Marginal Risk as narrow local surveys. On the West Coast, stage for potential flash flooding under the Rachel moisture and Tropical Storm Watch; do not treat San Diego County as a full hurricane landfall. Distinguish residual Tennessee Valley freshwater tickets from new Appalachian upslope work and from the separate Southwest pulse.

What this is not

This is not an active hurricane or tropical-storm warning on the Gulf or Atlantic coast. All Storm Surge and Tropical Storm Warnings for Isaias have been discontinued. It is not a plains or Midwest severe outbreak. Rachel is a tropical-storm watch threat for extreme Southern California, not a major hurricane landfall. The organized hazards are the SPC Marginal risks in the Carolinas and Desert Southwest, the WPC Moderate excessive-rainfall risks in the Southern Appalachians and Southern California, and residual inland flooding from the post-tropical remnants of Isaias and Rachel.

Looking ahead

Isaias remnants are expected to continue northeast and dissipate on Sunday. SPC Day 2 outlook maintains a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over portions of Virginia and North Carolina for Sunday. Rachel is forecast to move ashore near the U.S./Mexico border tonight and weaken rapidly over the Southwest on Sunday. Watch the next Storm Tracker update for verification of the Appalachian rainfall totals and any expansion of the California products.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources, dated late Saturday, October 10 / early Sunday, October 11, 2026: NOAA Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Convective Outlook (0100 UTC October 11, Marginal Risk parts of Carolinas and Desert Southwest); Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook and Discussion (Moderate Risk Southern Appalachians and Southern California, updated 2331 UTC); WPC Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias Advisory 18 (10:00 PM CDT); National Hurricane Center Post-Tropical Cyclone Rachel Advisory 56 (8:00 PM PDT). Prior desk: Saturday afternoon GA/SC Tornadoes & Rachel.

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook and local storm reports, WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay, and nhc.noaa.gov for residual Isaias and Rachel products.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

Storm hub: Hurricane Isaias 2026 | Tropical Storm Rachel 2026

October 10, 2026

Storm Updates: Isaias Remnants & Rachel — Oct 10 Morning

Tropical: Post-Tropical Isaias · Severe: Slight + Tornado Watch 679 · Flood: Moderate

What changed

Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias remains near 33.5N 86.9W as of WPC Advisory 17 at 4:00 p.m. CDT Saturday, October 10, 2026, about 5 miles west of Birmingham, Alabama, moving NNE at 15 mph with maximum sustained winds of 30 mph and minimum pressure 1007 mb. NHC has issued its final advisory; WPC continues flood tracking. All tropical warnings discontinued. Position advanced from earlier Saturday near 32.8N 86.8W at 35 mph.
SPC Tornado Watch 679 remains in effect until 8:00 p.m. EDT for portions of eastern Georgia and southern/eastern South Carolina. SPC 2000 UTC Day 1 Outlook (issued 3:00 p.m. CDT) maintains Slight Risk focused on eastern GA into southern and eastern SC for a few tornadoes into this evening, with significant tornado probability along the GA/SC border. Active Tornado Warnings issued this afternoon for Barnwell, Aiken, Burke, and related counties (radar-indicated and observed).
WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 1612 UTC) holds Moderate Risk across the Southern Appalachians (NE GA into Upstate SC and western NC) and portions of Southern California. Upslope totals of 3–5+ inches, locally 6–10 inches, remain the peak concern. Flash Flood Warnings active in portions of the Southeast.
Tropical Storm Rachel as of NHC Advisory 55A around 5:00 p.m. PDT is near 27.4N 116.7W, moving NNE at 30 mph with 65 mph winds and 989 mb. Tropical Storm Watch continues for the Southern California coast from the U.S./Mexico border to the San Diego/Orange County line. Center expected to approach northern Baja this evening.
No new NHC hurricane or storm-surge warnings for U.S. land. Residual Flood Watches, High Wind Warnings, and Wind Advisories persist in the Southeast and Southern Appalachians; Coastal Flood Warning and Flood Watch remain in Southern California.

Live status

As of Saturday afternoon, October 10, 2026, Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias continues north-northeast across central Alabama near Birmingham and is forecast to accelerate northeast into the Tennessee Valley while dissipating. Rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches with localized maxima of 10 inches are possible across the Southern Appalachians from northeast Georgia into the western Carolinas and from the upper coast of South Carolina into eastern North Carolina. Additional 1 to 2 inches are expected across the remainder of the Southeast into northern Florida. Flash, urban, and river flooding remains possible, with considerable impacts including landslides across the Southern Appalachians. Significant river flooding on the western Florida Panhandle will crest today through Sunday.

Tornado Watch 679 is live for eastern Georgia and southern/eastern South Carolina until 8:00 p.m. EDT. SPC notes the risk for a few tornadoes will continue into this evening across parts of eastern Georgia into southern and eastern South Carolina, with the greatest potential near the GA/SC border and conditional support for a strong tornado. Tornado Warnings have been issued this afternoon for radar-indicated and confirmed rotation in counties including Barnwell SC, Aiken SC, and Burke GA. A few severe wind gusts may also occur in parts of the Desert Southwest associated with Rachel interaction.

WPC maintains the Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall on the Southern Appalachians and on portions of Southern California as moisture associated with Rachel is drawn northeastward. Concentrated precipitation is expected later today into tonight as Rachel approaches the northern Baja/Southern California coast. Rainfall of 1 to 3 inches, locally up to 5 inches, is expected in portions of the Southwest this weekend, supporting increasing flash-flood coverage.

Hotspots

Southern Appalachians (northeast Georgia, Upstate South Carolina, western North Carolina): Primary flood hotspot under the WPC Moderate Risk. Strong upslope flow supports 3–5+ inches, with maximum totals of 6–10 inches possible across far western North Carolina into the Upstate of South Carolina. Considerable flash flooding and landslides are possible. High wind warnings remain in elevated terrain.

Eastern Georgia into western and southern South Carolina: SPC Slight Risk plus Tornado Watch 679 for tornadoes and isolated damaging winds. Warm-sector thunderstorms can produce brief tornadoes, especially near the Georgia/South Carolina border this afternoon into evening. Active Tornado Warnings and Flash Flood Warnings remain in effect in portions of the area this afternoon.

Southern California coast and Desert Southwest: Tropical Storm Watch on the San Diego County coastal areas. Moisture from Rachel drives the WPC Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall over portions of Southern California, with increasing flash-flood potential later today into tonight. Marginal severe wind gust risk noted by SPC in parts of the Lower Colorado River Valley into south-central Arizona. Coastal Flood Warning and Flood Watch in effect.

Central Alabama / Florida Panhandle residual: Center of the post-tropical system is near Birmingham. Residual heavy rain and isolated flash flooding continue along the inland track and in leftover banding. Coastal tropical warnings have ended; high wind warnings and wind advisories remain for parts of the Southeast and elevated terrain.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS / WPC level	Status this morning
Southern Appalachians (NE GA / Upstate SC / W NC)	Flash flood, landslides, 3–10 in upslope	WPC Moderate excessive rainfall	Live, ramping today
Eastern GA / western & southern SC	Brief tornadoes, damaging wind, flash flood	SPC Slight + Tornado Watch 679 to 8 p.m. EDT; active Tornado & Flash Flood Warnings	Live watch and warnings, afternoon–evening peak
Southern California coast / Desert Southwest	Heavy rain, flash flood, TS winds possible, coastal flood	WPC Moderate; TS Watch (San Diego County); Coastal Flood Warning / Flood Watch	Increasing tonight
Central AL / FL Panhandle residual	Residual heavy rain, isolated flood, wind gusts	Post-tropical 30 mph near Birmingham; high wind warnings	Ongoing, weakening
Rest of CONUS severe board	No other organized severe	Marginal only in SW; no other watches	Quiet elsewhere

Rising queries

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What this means for restoration teams

The coastal wind and surge ticket from Friday night landfall near Destin is largely closed. Immediate work shifts inland to freshwater extraction and tree/road clearance under residual rain bands and the Southern Appalachians Moderate Risk. Treat any tornado reports in the Georgia–South Carolina Slight Risk and Tornado Watch 679 (including current warnings) as narrow local surveys. On the West Coast, stage for potential flash flooding under the Rachel moisture and Tropical Storm Watch; do not treat San Diego County as a full hurricane landfall. Distinguish residual Florida Panhandle/Alabama freshwater tickets from new Appalachian upslope work and from the separate Southwest pulse.

What this is not

This is not an active hurricane or tropical-storm warning on the Gulf or Atlantic coast. All Storm Surge and Tropical Storm Warnings for Isaias have been discontinued. It is not a plains or Midwest severe outbreak. Rachel is a tropical-storm watch threat for extreme Southern California, not a major hurricane landfall. The organized hazards are the SPC Slight tornado risk and Tornado Watch 679 (with active warnings) in Georgia and South Carolina, the WPC Moderate excessive-rainfall risks in the Southern Appalachians and Southern California, and residual inland flooding from the post-tropical remnants of Isaias.

Looking ahead

Isaias remnants are expected to continue north-northeast into the Tennessee Valley and dissipate on Sunday. SPC Day 2 outlook maintains a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over portions of North Carolina, Virginia, and southeast Maryland for Sunday afternoon and evening. Rachel is forecast to move ashore near the U.S./Mexico border tonight and weaken rapidly over the Southwest on Sunday, likely becoming post-tropical by Sunday morning. Watch the next Storm Tracker update for verification of the Appalachian rainfall totals and any expansion of the California products.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources, dated Saturday, October 10, 2026: NOAA Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Convective Outlook (2000 UTC, Slight Risk eastern Georgia into southern and eastern South Carolina) and Tornado Watch 679; active NWS Tornado Warnings and Flash Flood Warnings in GA/SC; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook and Discussion (Moderate Risk Southern Appalachians and Southern California, updated 1612 UTC); WPC Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias Advisory 17 (4:00 p.m. CDT); National Hurricane Center Tropical Storm Rachel Advisory 55A. Prior desk: Friday evening Isaias landfall near Destin.

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook and local storm reports, WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay, and nhc.noaa.gov for residual Isaias products and the latest Rachel advisory.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

Storm hub: Hurricane Isaias 2026 | Tropical Storm Rachel 2026

October 9, 2026

Storm Updates: Isaias Landfall Destin — Oct 9

Tropical: Hurricane Warning live · Severe: Slight · Flood: High

This is the Friday evening Storm Tracker desk for October 9, 2026. Hurricane Isaias has made landfall near Destin, Florida. The center is now inland over the western Florida Panhandle. Damaging winds and flash-flooding threats are spreading inland. The Storm Prediction Center 0100 UTC Day 1 convective outlook, updated 7:58 p.m. CDT Friday, keeps a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms from parts of the Florida Panhandle into southeast Alabama and southwest Georgia. Tornado Watch 678 is live until 6:00 a.m. EDT Saturday. The Weather Prediction Center holds a High Risk of excessive rainfall from the Florida Big Bend into southern Georgia, with a Moderate Risk nearer the track. Restoration exposure remains wind and surge on the coast, freshwater flooding inland, tornadoes in the eastern bands, and trees on roofs and lines as the circulation moves north.

What changed

Isaias made landfall near Destin, Florida, around 8:30 p.m. CDT as a Category 2 with maximum sustained winds of 105 mph. By the 10:00 p.m. CDT advisory the center was inland near 30.8N 86.5W, about 45 miles east-northeast of Pensacola, with winds down to 90 mph and motion north at 20 mph.
Tornado Watch 677 has been replaced by Tornado Watch 678, issued at 8:50 p.m. EDT and valid until 6:00 a.m. EDT Saturday for portions of the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend and far southern Georgia. A couple of tornadoes remain possible in the outer rain bands.
WPC upgraded the Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook. A High Risk now covers the Florida Big Bend into southern Georgia for a training band capable of 3–6 inches per hour and double-digit totals. A Moderate Risk continues nearer the track from the Panhandle into southern Alabama.
Hurricane Warning remains in effect from the Mississippi/Alabama border to the Bay/Gulf County line in Florida. Storm Surge Warning runs from Dauphin Island, Alabama, to the Suwannee River. Some western portions of earlier warnings have been discontinued as the center moves inland.
SPC Day 1 Slight Risk area is now about 18,129 square miles and 1.1 million people, focused on Tallahassee, Dothan, Valdosta and nearby centers. No other organized severe area exists on the board.

What is live this evening

National Hurricane Center Advisory 14 at 10:00 p.m. CDT Friday places the center of Hurricane Isaias near latitude 30.8 North, longitude 86.5 West, about 45 miles east-northeast of Pensacola and about 65 miles northwest of Panama City. Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles; tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles. Minimum pressure is 982 mb. On the forecast track the center moves across Alabama and into the Tennessee Valley Saturday and Sunday. Continued weakening is expected, but gusty winds will persist well inland through Saturday even after the system becomes post-tropical.

Storm-surge heights if the peak arrives near high tide: 3–5 feet from Dauphin Island, Alabama, to the Aucilla River, Florida; 2–4 feet from the Aucilla River to the Suwannee River and in Mobile Bay. Hurricane conditions, particularly in gusts, are expected through early Saturday within the Hurricane Warning area. Hurricane-force winds are expected to spread inland as far as 100 miles from the coast into southern Alabama. Rainfall of 4–8 inches is forecast from Friday through the weekend across southern Alabama, the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend, and southwest Georgia, with localized totals up to 15 inches in banding, especially the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend. Another 2–5 inches is expected across much of the remainder of the Southeast, locally up to 10 inches toward the southern Appalachians and coastal Carolinas.

SPC’s 0100 UTC Day 1 outlook notes the center of Isaias is currently near the Florida coast. Thunderstorms associated with the hurricane will move inland this evening into the overnight. Rotating cells could be associated with a tornado threat, mainly from the Florida Panhandle northward into southeast Alabama and southwest Georgia. The latest WSR-88D VWPs in the Florida Panhandle show strong low-level shear with large looped hodographs. Tornado Watch 678 covers the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend and far southern Georgia until 6:00 a.m. EDT. Primary threat language is a couple of tornadoes possible.

WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, updated 8:59 p.m. EDT Friday and valid 01Z–12Z Saturday, carries a High Risk from the Florida Big Bend into southern Georgia. Core convection is diminishing, but a training band of deluge is expected to be efficient from roughly 06Z onward east of Apalachicola, with access to 2000+ J/kg CAPE and 25–50 kt shear. Hourly amounts of 3–6 inches and storm totals of 10+ inches are possible if the band trains. A Moderate Risk remains nearer the track from the Panhandle into southern Alabama. Numerous instances of flash flooding are likely, some significant.

Hotspot 1 — Western Florida Panhandle landfall corridor

Destin, Fort Walton Beach, Niceville, Crestview, Pensacola, Gulf Breeze and Navarre sit in the immediate wind and surge corridor. The center crossed the Okaloosa County coast near Destin around 8:30 p.m. CDT. Extreme Wind Warnings and Flash Flood Emergencies were issued earlier in the evening for southern Okaloosa and adjacent counties. Hundreds of thousands of customers are already without power across Florida and Alabama.

Restoration read: coastal tickets are wind plus saltwater inundation. Do not treat this as a daytime roof walk. Stage extraction and board-up outside the surge zone. Inland tickets behind the coast are roof, siding and trees once the wind field arrives. Photograph only if it is safe and the warning allows it.

Hotspot 2 — Eastern Panhandle, Big Bend and southwest Georgia bands

Panama City, Apalachicola, Tallahassee, Cross City, Valdosta and Thomasville sit under Tornado Watch 678 and the WPC High Risk. SPC expects the main tornado threat this evening and overnight with supercells east of the hurricane core interacting with a surface warm front. The training band east of Apalachicola is the rainfall maximum threat.

Restoration read: tornado swaths are narrow. Staff them as local surveys. The water ticket is wider. A training band is wet drywall and a same-night extraction clock if water gets inside. Turn around, don’t drown, on low crossings in the Big Bend and southwest Georgia tonight.

Hotspot 3 — Southeast Alabama and the inland track

Dothan, Ozark and far southeast Alabama remain inside the Slight Risk. Southern Alabama sits in the WPC Moderate excessive-rainfall area. Farther north, central Alabama and the Tennessee Valley are the Saturday wind and water desk as the center tracks inland. Tropical Storm Warnings cover a broad swath of Alabama.

Restoration read: southeast Alabama can take both a tornado and a flood ticket tonight. Central Alabama is more of a Saturday water and tree desk. Do not send the same crew to the Panhandle surge zone and the Dothan band without checking which county has the warning now.

Just hit

SPC’s preliminary local storm report page for the Friday 12 UTC cycle showed limited filtered reports at desk time; hurricane-related wind reports are not decoded into the standard LSR table. Flash Flood Warnings and Flash Flood Emergencies are active across the western Panhandle and southern Alabama. Morning companion for this date: Storm Updates: Isaias Slight Tornado Risk, Gulf Landfall Tonight — Friday, October 9, 2026 (Morning). Storm hub: Hurricane Isaias 2026.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS / WPC level	Status this evening
Western FL Panhandle near Destin / Pensacola	Hurricane wind, surge 3–5 ft, heavy rain	Hurricane Warning; center inland 90 mph	Landfall complete; winds spreading inland
FL Panhandle / Big Bend / far S Georgia	Tornadoes in bands, extreme rain rates	Slight + Tornado Watch 678 to 6 a.m. EDT; WPC High	Live watch and High flood risk
Southern Alabama	Heavy rain, residual wind	WPC Moderate; Tropical Storm Warning inland	Ongoing overnight
Rest of the U.S. severe board	No other organized severe area	No other watches	Quiet

What this means for restoration teams

Tonight’s board is a completed hurricane landfall plus a continuing tornado watch on the east side, not a plains squall line. Hurricane-force wind is roof, structure and long power-outage work near the coast and up to about 100 miles inland into southern Alabama. Surge is a different ticket from rain: saltwater, contents and dry-out on the immediate coast. The High flood risk is freshwater on top of that, especially if the eastern band trains. A tornado, if one occurs inside Watch 678, is a narrow swath for a damage survey.

For teams already in the warning area: finish exterior work and get to shelter. Do not plan an arrival inside the hurricane warning tonight. For teams outside it: stage toward Saturday morning inland of the surge, not toward the beaches after dark. Property owners should follow local evacuation orders, then photograph damage in daylight if it is safe, call the carrier, and start extraction the same day water is inside.

What this is not

This is not a derecho. It is not a Midwest outbreak. Landfall has occurred; the center is inland. It is not a verified multi-tornado outbreak yet; filtered LSRs remain limited. Do not invent a damage path. The hazards that are organized are the Hurricane Warning, the Storm Surge Warning, Tornado Watch 678, the SPC Slight Risk, and the WPC High and Moderate flood risks.

Looking ahead

Saturday remains a tornado day on the east side of the circulation. The SPC Day 2 outlook keeps a Slight Risk from the Florida Big Bend across much of southern and central Georgia into central South Carolina. A few tornadoes are possible from the Florida Panhandle into parts of Georgia and the Carolinas Saturday into Saturday evening. NHC expects continued weakening, with the system likely post-tropical by late Saturday as it moves toward Tennessee and the central Appalachians. Rain and residual wind, not a second Gulf landfall, are the Saturday–Sunday inland story. Watch the next Storm Tracker update rather than treating 6 a.m. EDT as the end of the tornado window.

Rising queries

Google Trends (US, evening of 9 Oct 2026) shows rising interest tied to the landfall: “hurricane storm isaias” (200K+ searches, active), “huracán isaias” (top trending), “tornado watch” variants, “high wind warning” and “Florida Panhandle power outage.”

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources, all dated Friday, October 9, 2026: NOAA Storm Prediction Center 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook (updated 00:58 UTC Oct 10); Tornado Watch 678 (issued 0050 UTC Oct 10, expires 1000 UTC Oct 10); Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 0128 UTC Oct 10); National Hurricane Center Hurricane Isaias Advisory 14 at 10:00 p.m. CDT. Morning desk: Friday, October 9, 2026 morning Storm Updates. Hub: Hurricane Isaias 2026.

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watch and local storm reports, WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay, and nhc.noaa.gov for the latest Isaias advisory.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

October 9, 2026

Storm Updates: Gulf Isaias Warnings, Florida and Iowa Marginal — Thursday, October 8, 2026

This is the Thursday afternoon Storm Tracker desk for October 8, 2026. The organized severe window is still small. The Storm Prediction Center 2000 UTC Day 1 convective outlook, updated 2:32 p.m. CDT, keeps a Marginal risk on the central Florida peninsula and on Iowa, and it made no changes from the late-morning forecast. No convective watches and no mesoscale discussions are in effect as of 21:14 UTC. The story that is organized is not a plains outbreak. It is Hurricane Isaias, still over the central Gulf, with hurricane and storm-surge warnings already posted for the northern Gulf Coast ahead of a late Friday or early Saturday landfall.

Restoration exposure this afternoon is mostly prep, not tickets. Florida still has water on saturated ground. Iowa has a hail chance after dark that has not verified. The Gulf Coast has a wind, surge, tree, and roof problem that is forecast, not yet onshore. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What is live this afternoon

SPC lists a Marginal risk of about 37,970 square miles and roughly 5.86 million people, with larger centers including Tampa, St. Petersburg, Des Moines, Clearwater, and Lakeland. The Florida slice is a 2 percent tornado probability on the central peninsula. The Iowa slice is a 5 percent hail probability. SPC did not draw a damaging-wind risk area on this update. The watches page, refreshed 21:14 UTC, says no watches are currently valid. The most recent archived convective watch is 676. Mesoscale discussions: none in effect as of 21:12 UTC.

The Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, updated 0821 UTC and valid through 12 UTC Friday, holds a Marginal risk of excessive rainfall for much of the Florida peninsula. A stalled front is still the driver. North Florida soils are called fully saturated after consecutive wet days. WPC’s read is isolated flash flooding where convection fires, with a better chance over a larger city such as Tampa or Orlando, and broader ponding in poor-drainage and urban spots. Most of the rain is expected to stay light to moderate.

National Hurricane Center Advisory 9, 4:00 p.m. CDT, placed the eye of Hurricane Isaias near 24.4N 89.3W, about 325 miles south of the Mouth of the Mississippi River. Maximum sustained winds were near 100 mph, movement northeast near 12 mph, pressure 975 mb. Hurricane-force winds extended only about 15 miles from the center. Tropical-storm-force winds extended out to about 125 miles. The forecast track still calls for landfall along the northern Gulf Coast inside the warning area late Friday or early Saturday. Isaias is not on U.S. land this afternoon.

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect from the Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Suwannee River. A Hurricane Warning runs from Ocean Springs, Mississippi, to the Bay/Gulf County line in Florida. Tropical Storm Warnings cover the Louisiana coast from the Jefferson/Plaquemines parish line to west of Ocean Springs, and the Florida coast east of the Bay/Gulf County line to the Aucilla River. A Storm Surge Watch continues from the Suwannee River to Yankeetown. NHC surge heights, if the peak arrives at high tide: 5 to 7 feet from Ocean Springs to Indian Pass and in Mobile Bay; 4 to 6 feet from Indian Pass to the Steinhatchee River; 3 to 5 feet from the Mouth of the Mississippi to Ocean Springs and from the Steinhatchee River to the Suwannee River; 2 to 4 feet from the Suwannee River to Yankeetown. Local NWS products already in force this afternoon include a Hurricane Warning and Storm Surge Warning for Baldwin County, Alabama, with NWS Mobile citing a peak wind forecast of 50 to 65 mph and gusts to 90 mph on the Baldwin coast, and a window for tropical-storm-force wind Friday afternoon into early Saturday.

Hotspot 1 — Northern Gulf Coast: Mississippi, Alabama, Florida Panhandle

This is the warning desk, not a live severe-thunderstorm watch. Cities and counties inside or beside the hurricane warning include Ocean Springs and coastal Jackson County in Mississippi; Mobile and Baldwin counties in Alabama, including Daphne, Fairhope, Foley, Gulf Shores, Orange Beach, and Fort Morgan; and the Florida Panhandle west of the Bay/Gulf County line. NHC expects hurricane conditions inside the Hurricane Warning area Friday night into early Saturday, with tropical-storm conditions beginning Friday. Rainfall from Friday through the weekend is forecast at 4 to 8 inches across southern Alabama, the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend, and southwest Georgia, with localized totals up to 15 inches in banding. An isolated tornado risk is timed to begin Friday night along the Alabama and Florida Panhandle coasts and far southwestern Georgia, then continue Saturday farther inland.

Restoration read: this is a prep window, not a claims pile. Stage tarps, generators, tree crews, and drying capacity before tropical-storm-force wind arrives Friday. Surge and saturated ground will argue the water jobs; wind and trees will argue the roof and exterior jobs. Do not treat this afternoon’s quiet radar as a cancelled landfall.

Hotspot 2 — Central Florida peninsula

SPC’s Florida Marginal sits on a residual frontal zone across the middle of the peninsula, generally near and north of a cloud shield, with filtered sun south of the I-4 corridor. Dewpoints are in the mid to upper 70s. Effective shear is only moderate, about 25 to 30 knots, with a veering profile. The hazard language is a brief tornado or waterspout near the front, not a wind outbreak. Population anchors named on the outlook include Tampa, St. Petersburg, Clearwater, Lakeland, and Brandon. WPC keeps the same peninsula in a Marginal excessive-rainfall risk, and it flags Tampa and Orlando if a heavier core sets up over the city.

Restoration read: water first, and only where a cell actually sits. North Florida ground is already wet. A brief spin-up is a local warning problem, not a multi-county tarp campaign. Check the county warning before you move a crew off a standing job.

Hotspot 3 — Iowa tonight

The Iowa Marginal is a tonight problem, not an afternoon line. SPC expects isolated to scattered elevated storms as warm advection increases northeast of a warm front, with around 1,000 J/kg of elevated instability and effective shear increasing to 40 knots or more in the cloud-bearing layer. The hazard is a few elevated supercells late this evening into the overnight, and a few instances of marginally severe hail. Named centers on the 5 percent hail area include Des Moines, Sioux City, Waterloo, Ames, and West Des Moines. The areal outline also brushes neighboring Missouri Valley points toward Omaha and Sioux Falls, but the categorical Marginal on the 20Z update is drawn on Iowa.

Restoration read: hail, if it verifies, is a morning roof and auto ticket, not a tonight extraction job. No hail reports are on the SPC log for this convective day yet. Do not pre-position as if a watch were already up.

Just hit

SPC’s storm-report page for October 8, covering 1200 UTC today through 1159 UTC Friday, showed no tornado reports, no hail reports, and no wind reports as of this afternoon pull. Yesterday’s convective day closed with no severe areas forecast on the 0100 UTC outlook. There is no new local-storm ticket stack to inherit. The work that is already on the books is Florida’s multi-day rain on saturated ground, not a fresh severe-thunderstorm damage list. Isaias has not made U.S. landfall. Advisory 9 still has the center about 325 miles south of the Mouth of the Mississippi.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS level	Status this afternoon
Northern Gulf Coast (MS / AL / FL Panhandle)	Hurricane wind, storm surge, heavy rain Friday night	Hurricane Warning; Storm Surge Warning; NHC Advisory 9	Warnings up; center still offshore
Central Florida peninsula	Brief tornado or waterspout; urban flooding	SPC Marginal (2% tornado); WPC Marginal rain	Live marginal, no watch
Iowa	Marginally severe hail late tonight	SPC Marginal (5% hail)	Tonight, not yet reported
North Florida flood ground	Runoff on saturated soil	WPC Marginal excessive rainfall	Ongoing water, isolated
Rest of the CONUS severe desk	No organized wind or hail watch	No convective watches; no MDs	Quiet

What this means for restoration teams

Split the board. Gulf Coast crews should finish exterior prep today while roads are still open. NWS Mobile’s Baldwin County product already tells residents to finish protection before tropical-storm-force wind and to leave if an evacuation order is issued. That is the operational clock, not a same-day tarp run. Florida peninsula crews stay on the water jobs that are already wet, and they answer a warning only if one is issued for their county. Iowa can wait for a hail report before anyone treats it as a roof day. A Marginal risk without a watch and without a local storm report is a planning note.

The argument on the job, once Isaias is inland, will be wind versus water. Surge and rainfall will compete with roof and tree damage inside the same ZIP. Photograph only when it is safe. Do not send the same crew to a Florida urban-flood call and a Panhandle surge zone without checking which warning is actually in effect.

What this is not

This is not a derecho. SPC did not draw a wind risk area on the 20Z Day 1 outlook, and no severe thunderstorm watch is valid. This is not a U.S. landfall yet. Isaias is a hurricane over the Gulf with warnings posted for a landfall that NHC still times late Friday or early Saturday. It is not an Iowa outbreak this afternoon. The hail chance is elevated, overnight, and still unverified. No tornado, hail, or wind reports are on today’s SPC log.

Looking ahead one day

SPC’s 1730 UTC Day 2 outlook, issued 12:25 p.m. CDT, places a Slight risk of severe thunderstorms late Friday through Friday night across the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend and adjacent southern Alabama and southwestern Georgia, tied to tornado potential east and southeast of Isaias. The same discussion notes that later outlooks could reduce those probabilities if the track or the timing of inland destabilization changes. NHC rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, local 15, and the existing surge warning are the Friday-night restoration problem if the track holds. Iowa’s hail chance belongs to tonight, not to Friday’s Gulf landfall.

Sources

SPC Day 1 convective outlook, 2000 UTC update, 2:32 p.m. CDT October 8, 2026: spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
SPC current convective watches, updated 21:14 UTC October 8, 2026: spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/
SPC current mesoscale discussions, updated 21:12 UTC October 8, 2026: spc.noaa.gov/products/md/
SPC today’s storm reports, October 8, 2026: spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/261008_rpts.html
WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, updated 0821 UTC October 8, 2026: wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/ero.php
NHC Hurricane Isaias Advisory 9, 4:00 p.m. CDT October 8, 2026: nhc.noaa.gov
NWS watches and warnings text, national summary: weather.gov WWA summary
Morning Storm Tracker, October 8, 2026: Storm Updates: Gulf Isaias Warnings, Florida Marginal — Thursday morning

Informational only — not an official warning. Turn around, don’t drown. Use weather.gov and spc.noaa.gov for the county you are standing in.

October 8, 2026

Storm Updates: Gulf Coast Isaias Watches, Quiet Severe Pulse — Wednesday, October 7, 2026

This is the Wednesday afternoon Storm Tracker desk for October 7, 2026. The organized severe window is closed. The Storm Prediction Center 2000 UTC Day 1 convective outlook, updated 2:41 p.m. CDT, still carries no severe thunderstorm areas, and SPC had no watches and no mesoscale discussions in effect this afternoon. The live story is not a plains outbreak. It is Tropical Storm Isaias, quickly intensifying over the southwestern Gulf of America, with hurricane and storm surge watches already up on the northern Gulf Coast for a late Friday or early Saturday landfall. Restoration exposure today is still mostly water on the Florida Peninsula. The Gulf watch corridor is the staging problem for Friday: wind, surge, trees, and roof work if the forecast holds.

These are county-scale flood pockets and a named tropical cyclone still offshore, not a U.S. landfall this afternoon. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What is live this afternoon

SPC’s 20Z update, issued by Weinman at 2:41 p.m. CDT and valid through 12Z Thursday, kept the headline: organized severe thunderstorms are unlikely across the contiguous United States through tonight. No changes were needed from the late-morning discussion. In the exit region of a midlevel jet over the Midwest, a couple of strong low-topped thunderstorms are possible across the Upper Great Lakes this afternoon and the Lower Great Lakes this evening and tonight. Enhanced flow and steep lapse rates could support a few gusts in the 40 to 50 mph range. Limited buoyancy, and increasing low-level stability over the Lower Great Lakes, kept that risk below severe probabilities.

On the Florida Peninsula, a diffuse front and a moist profile with weak lapse rates and flow at or below 20 knots from the surface through 300 mb are limiting updraft strength. SPC said a brief tornado or waterspout near the coast cannot be ruled out, but the risk was still too low to add severe probabilities on this update. Northern New York can see isolated low-topped storms late today and tonight ahead of an amplifying trough and cold front, with gusty winds possible but not a watch.

The Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, discussed at 5:03 a.m. EDT and valid 12Z Wednesday through 12Z Thursday, holds a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall for much of the Florida Peninsula. Precipitable water above 2.25 inches south of a slow front supports a rinse-and-repeat pattern along I-4 and generally south of I-10. Localized convection can produce heavy rain that stalls. Four Corners storms were left sub-Marginal. No Slight or Moderate flood risk is on the Day 1 map.

National Hurricane Center Advisory 5, 4:00 p.m. CDT, places Tropical Storm Isaias near 22.7N 92.9W, about 225 miles west-northwest of Progreso, Mexico, and about 500 miles south-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi River. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph. Minimum pressure is 994 mb. Motion is east-northeast at 8 mph. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles. Isaias is forecast to become a hurricane by Thursday morning and to make landfall along the U.S. northern Gulf Coast late Friday or early Saturday. A Hurricane Watch runs from Bay St. Louis, Mississippi, to Indian Pass, Florida. A Storm Surge Watch runs from the mouth of the Mississippi River to Yankeetown, Florida. A Tropical Storm Watch covers the Jefferson/Plaquemines Parish line to west of Bay St. Louis, and east of Indian Pass to the Aucilla River. NHC said additional watches or warnings could be required tonight. Hurricane conditions could begin in the Hurricane Watch area late Friday. Tropical storm conditions could begin in the watch areas by midday Friday.

Hotspot 1 — Northern Gulf Coast watch corridor

This is the desk that matters for Friday, not for a ticket tonight. The Hurricane Watch includes coastal Mississippi, coastal Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle through Indian Pass. Local NWS Tallahassee products this afternoon already listed Hurricane Watch and Storm Surge Watch combinations for coastal Bay, coastal Gulf, and south Walton, with tropical storm watches inland into Holmes, inland Bay, inland Gulf, and Washington counties. Surge guidance in Advisory 5: 5 to 7 feet above ground from Ocean Springs, Mississippi, to Indian Pass, including Mobile Bay; 3 to 5 feet from the mouth of the Mississippi to Ocean Springs; 4 to 6 feet from Indian Pass to the Steinhatchee River; 2 to 4 feet from the Steinhatchee River to Yankeetown; 1 to 3 feet on Lake Pontchartrain.

Rainfall from Friday through the weekend is forecast at 3 to 7 inches, with localized totals up to 10 inches, from far southeastern Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle, and 1 to 3 inches with local amounts to 5 inches farther north into the Tennessee Valley and the Carolinas. Tornado potential increases in rain bands approaching the northeastern Gulf Coast Friday evening and overnight, then spreads inland Saturday.

Restoration read: this is a prep window, not a landfall ticket. Stage tarps, generators, and tree crews for Bay St. Louis, Gulfport, Mobile, Pensacola, Destin, and Panama City only after the local office upgrades the watch. Do not treat a watch as a warning. Surge and wind, if they verify Friday, are roof, siding, and first-floor water on the immediate coast east of the landfall point.

Hotspot 2 — Florida Peninsula flood pulse

This is the water that is already organized. WPC’s Marginal Risk covers much of the peninsula under a tropical air mass south of the front. The same setup SPC described near Tampa Bay — rich moisture, poor lapse rates, weak flow — favors slow cells more than organized severe storms. Cities on the rinse-and-repeat axis include Tampa, St. Petersburg, Lakeland, Orlando, and the I-4 corridor, with lighter but repeated rain south of I-10 into the peninsula.

Restoration read: urban street flooding and a wet slab where a cell sits, not a regional wind event. A brief coastal waterspout is in the discussion and is not a watch. Photograph standing water only if the road is closed and you are off it. Turn around, don’t drown.

Hotspot 3 — Great Lakes gusts and northern New York

SPC flagged the Upper Great Lakes this afternoon and the Lower Great Lakes this evening for low-topped storms that could gust 40 to 50 mph. Northern New York is the overnight piece, tied to the amplifying trough. Buoyancy is limited. No severe probabilities, no watch.

Restoration read: loose limbs and a service drop if a gust verifies, not a crew callout on the outlook alone. Check the local forecast office before treating a special weather statement as a severe thunderstorm warning.

Just hit

There is no new SPC severe watch and no new U.S. landfall to log as a ticket. Yesterday’s west-central Florida marginal tornado language was removed overnight and stayed off the map today. Florida flood pockets from the same front are the carryover water. Isaias is still about 500 miles south-southwest of the Mississippi River mouth. Offshore hurricane warnings in the central Gulf are marine products, not coastal county warnings. Alaska high-wind warnings on the Bering Strait coast are outside this desk.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS level	Status this afternoon
Northern Gulf Coast (LA / MS / AL / FL Panhandle)	Future hurricane wind, surge, heavy rain, Friday tornado bands	Hurricane Watch Bay St. Louis to Indian Pass; Storm Surge Watch to Yankeetown; TS Watch on the flanks	Watch, landfall late Friday or early Saturday
Florida Peninsula	Slow heavy rain, urban flood, brief waterspout not ruled out	WPC Marginal; SPC no severe area	Live water, not a watch
Upper and Lower Great Lakes / northern New York	Gusts 40–50 mph, low-topped storms	Below severe probabilities	Scattered, no watch
Four Corners	Isolated heavy rain	Sub-Marginal	Quiet
Rest of CONUS severe	None organized	No SPC risk areas, no watches, no MDs	Quiet

What this means for restoration teams

Today’s callable work is Florida water where a cell has already sat on a neighborhood. The Gulf Coast watch is a 48-hour prep, not a deploy. Hurricane conditions are possible late Friday inside the watch from Bay St. Louis to Indian Pass. Tropical storm conditions could arrive by midday Friday on the flanks, which is when outside prep gets dangerous. NHC’s own key message this afternoon: residents in the Hurricane Watch should prepare for the possibility of long-duration power outages, and people in the Storm Surge Watch should follow local officials.

If the track holds, Friday night into Saturday is wind and surge on the immediate coast east of landfall, then interior water from 3 to 7 inches with local 10-inch totals from southeastern Louisiana through the Panhandle. That is roof, tree, and extraction work, sequenced after the wind drops. Do not roll crews into a surge zone on a watch.

What this is not

This is not a derecho. It is not a U.S. landfall this afternoon. Isaias is a tropical storm at 65 mph, forecast to be a hurricane by Thursday morning, still southwest of the Yucatan approach. Hurricane Rachel and Tropical Storm Simon are eastern Pacific systems and are not a U.S. land threat on the current NHC products. SPC did not draw a Slight Risk, a Marginal Risk, or a watch anywhere in the contiguous United States today.

Looking ahead

Thursday morning Isaias is forecast to be a hurricane north of the Yucatan, still over water. The next complete NHC advisory is scheduled for 10:00 p.m. CDT, with an intermediate at 7:00 p.m. CDT. Additional watches or warnings for the northern Gulf Coast could come tonight. Friday is the approach day: tropical storm conditions possible by midday in the watch areas, hurricane conditions possible late in the Hurricane Watch, rain bands and a rising tornado risk Friday evening. SPC’s next Day 1 outlook is scheduled by 0100Z. The Florida Marginal flood risk expires with the Day 1 period at 12Z Thursday unless WPC redraws it.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources, all dated Wednesday, October 7, 2026: NOAA Storm Prediction Center 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook (2:41 p.m. CDT); Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (discussion 5:03 a.m. EDT); National Hurricane Center Tropical Storm Isaias Advisory 5 (4:00 p.m. CDT) and Forecast Discussion 5; NWS watches and warnings text summary; NWS Tallahassee local statement intermediate advisory 4A (2:16 p.m. EDT). Morning desk: Storm Updates: Florida Flood Pulse, Quiet Severe — Wednesday, October 7, 2026 (Morning).

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook and any new watch, WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay, and nhc.noaa.gov for Isaias.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

October 7, 2026

Storm Updates: Texas Coast Marginal Flood, Quiet Severe Pulse — Monday, October 5, 2026

This is the Monday afternoon Storm Tracker desk for October 5, 2026. The organized severe window is closed. The Storm Prediction Center 2000 UTC Day 1 convective outlook, updated 2:56 p.m. CDT by Thornton, kept the categorical map at no severe thunderstorm areas through tonight. The 1128 a.m. CDT discussion from Gleason and Chalmers still stands: locally gusty winds are possible with low-topped convection in New England, showers and thunderstorms linger along a slow front from the northern Gulf into southern Georgia and northern Florida, and isolated storms may continue from the Sierra into the Great Basin and the southern and central Rockies. Elevated storms are possible late this afternoon into tonight across parts of the Upper Midwest. Weak instability is the limiter in every one of those regions. Restoration exposure this afternoon is water, not a wind or hail outbreak: ponding on the lower Texas coast, a pulse-heavy rain band from the Florida Panhandle into eastern Georgia, and leftover river stages on the Mississippi.

What is live this afternoon

SPC current watches, updated 2:14 p.m. CDT Monday, list no watches valid. The most recent convective watch on the archive page is watch 0676. No mesoscale discussions are in effect as of the 2:33 p.m. CDT SPC update. Day 1 tornado, wind, and hail probabilistic areas are empty. Today’s SPC local storm report page for the 1200 UTC October 5 through 1159 UTC October 6 window shows no tornado, hail, or wind reports received as of this desk check.

The Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, updated 11:55 a.m. EDT Monday and valid 16 UTC October 5 through 12 UTC October 6, is the product that still has a restoration ticket. WPC and the Brownsville office dropped the Slight risk on the southern lower Texas coast and replaced it with a small Marginal, mainly eastern Cameron County and coastal Willacy County, including Brownsville and South Padre Island. Heaviest rain had been on South Padre Island and the southern tip of Texas. Guidance keeps the best convergent area just offshore overnight, with a few cells able to sneak back onshore. Farther east, a Marginal remains over the Florida Panhandle, northern and central Florida, and eastern Georgia. The front was analyzed along the Florida-Georgia border at 12 UTC, expected to bisect northern Florida later this afternoon. Precipitable water on the 12 UTC Jacksonville sounding was 2.44 inches. Best 2-to-4-inch signature sits between Destin and the Big Bend and inland near and west of Tallahassee, including the Apalachicola National Forest and US 98 towns. Coastal I-95 from Savannah through Jacksonville to St. Augustine is the urban runoff strip.

The national watches-and-warnings text still carries early-morning flash flood warnings that have expired: Coffee and Dale counties in southeastern Alabama until 4:15 a.m. CDT, and northern Barbour County until 2:30 a.m. CDT, with 4 to 6 inches cited in Barbour. Those are last-night tickets, not live polygons. River flood warnings that still matter this afternoon include minor flooding on the Mississippi River at Louisiana, Missouri, in effect until Wednesday morning (stage 15.2 feet at 10 p.m. CDT Sunday, flood stage 15.0), and at Clarksville, Missouri, until Tuesday evening (stage 25.2 feet, flood stage 25.0). No severe thunderstorm warning or tornado warning was the lead product on the national summary at this check.

Hotspots

Lower Texas coast — Cameron and Willacy

Brownsville, South Padre Island, Port Isabel, and coastal Willacy are the tightest flood footprint this afternoon. WPC’s 16Z update, coordinated with the Brownsville office, cut the Slight to a Marginal after radar showed the heaviest rain on the island and the southern tip rather than a broad inland swath. Neighborhood probabilities for more than 3 inches stayed modest, and hourly chances of an inch or more drop after mid-afternoon as the convergent axis slides offshore. Restoration read: isolated street and low-spot water, not a multi-county extraction day. Crews already on a water ticket should finish the wet middle before calling this a new event.

Florida Panhandle into eastern Georgia

Destin, Panama City Beach, Apalachicola, Tallahassee, and the Apalachicola National Forest sit under the best remaining heavy-rain signature, with 2 to 4 inches possible before the ascent lifts out this afternoon. Sandy soils make the forest and US 98 towns hard to flood unless rates exceed about 3 inches an hour. Panama City Beach and Apalachicola proper are the exceptions WPC flagged. Farther east, Savannah, Jacksonville, and St. Augustine have the urban runoff problem: neighborhood probabilities for more than 5 inches of 40 to 60 percent along the Georgia-Florida coast, but low probabilities for a broad 2-inch footprint, which is the signature of pulse storms, not a training line. Restoration read: short windows of ponding on I-95 and poor-drainage lots. Tree and wind claims are not the organized threat. Effective bulk shear under 30 knots and poor lapse rates are why SPC left this out of every severe area.

New England gusts, and the Mississippi river stages

Northern New York into northern New England can still see low-topped showers and a locally gusty wind as the Quebec trough moves east. SPC’s morning and midday discussions both said limited low-level moisture should hinder an organized severe wind threat. That is a roof-and-limb check, not a watch. On the Mississippi, Louisiana and Clarksville remain in minor flood warnings into Tuesday and Wednesday. Edison Avenue past the railroad tracks at Louisiana, and the road to Port Marmac south of Clarksville, are the impact lines already written. Restoration read: access and contents at the river edge, not a convective outbreak.

Just hit

The last 24 hours did not produce a severe-report day. SPC’s filtered and unfiltered pages for today show no tornado, hail, or wind reports. Yesterday’s page, covering 1200 UTC October 3 through 1159 UTC October 4, also listed none. What did hit is water. Overnight flash flood warnings covered Enterprise, Ozark, Fort Rucker, Elba, and New Brockton in Coffee and Dale counties, and Clayton and the US 82 corridor in Barbour County, Alabama, with 1 to 3 inches already down in Coffee and Dale and 4 to 6 inches cited in Barbour before those polygons expired before dawn. A special marine warning early Monday noted a possible waterspout southeast of V Tower on Apalachee Bay. Those are already-ticket items if a call came in overnight. They are not an open warning this afternoon.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC/NWS level	Status
Lower Texas coast	Heavy rain, isolated flash flood	WPC Marginal; no SPC risk	Live, shrinking offshore
Florida Panhandle, N/central FL, E Georgia	Pulse heavy rain, urban ponding	WPC Marginal; general thunder	Live into early afternoon
Southeast Alabama	Overnight flash flood	Expired FFWs before dawn	Just hit, not live
Northern New England	Locally gusty low-topped wind	General thunder, no severe area	Scattered, not organized
Mississippi at Louisiana and Clarksville	Minor river flood	Flood warnings into Tue/Wed	Ongoing river, not storm
Rest of the CONUS	None organized	No watches, no MDs, no LSRs	Quiet

What this means for restoration teams

Do not staff a severe board tonight. There is no watch to stage against and no hail or wind report stack to work. The open work is water: finish overnight Alabama flood calls in Coffee, Dale, and Barbour if they are still wet; keep a small extract-and-dry crew available for Cameron County, Willacy County, and South Padre Island if a cell comes back onshore; and treat Panama City Beach, Apalachicola, Jacksonville, and the Savannah-to-St. Augustine strip as short-fuse ponding, not a line. Mississippi river access at Louisiana and Clarksville is a contents and road problem through midweek. Tree work in New England only if a local gust actually takes a limb. No client names belong on this desk.

What this is not

This is not a derecho, not a severe-thunderstorm outbreak, and not a U.S. landfalling hurricane. Hurricane Rachel, 90 mph and moving west at 8 mph near 20.3N 117.1W as of the 2 p.m. PDT advisory, is an eastern Pacific storm and is not a U.S. land threat. There are no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic. Invest AL92, a trough over the southwestern Gulf of America, has a 60 percent chance of formation in 48 hours and 80 percent in 7 days, with a tropical depression expected around midweek. NHC said it is too early to assign specific impacts to the northern Gulf Coast. It is not a named cyclone on or just off U.S. land this afternoon, so it does not open a named-storm restoration file today.

Looking ahead one day

The SPC 1730 UTC Day 2 outlook, issued 12:30 p.m. CDT Monday by Lyons and valid Tuesday, again has no severe thunderstorm areas. Severe storms are unlikely Tuesday. High pressure and cool northerly flow favor a drier, more stable East. Scattered storms remain possible on the Gulf Coast and into central and southern Florida as the front sags south, with weak lapse rates and shear. Isolated storms are possible over the higher terrain of the Rockies under a weak trough, and isolated storms are possible across the northern Great Lakes late Tuesday under cooler mid-level temperatures. The Gulf disturbance is the item to recheck Tuesday morning, not a reason to invent a landfall today.

Sources

SPC Day 1 convective outlook, 2000 UTC October 5, 2026: spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
SPC current watches: spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/
SPC mesoscale discussions: spc.noaa.gov/products/md/
SPC today’s storm reports: spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/today.html
WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook: wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/ero.php
NWS watches and warnings text: weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php
NHC Atlantic tropical weather outlook, 2 p.m. EDT October 5, 2026, and Hurricane Rachel advisory: nhc.noaa.gov
SPC Day 2 outlook, 1730 UTC October 5, 2026: spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html
Morning desk for this calendar day: Storm Updates: Texas Coast Slight Flood, Quiet Severe Pulse — Monday, October 5, 2026 (Morning)

Informational only — not an official warning. For warnings and local forecasts use weather.gov and spc.noaa.gov. Turn around, don’t drown.

October 5, 2026

Storm Updates: Florida Panhandle Marginal, Texas Coast Moderate Rain — Sunday, October 4, 2026

This is the Sunday afternoon Storm Tracker desk for October 4, 2026. The organized severe window is small and coastal, not a plains outbreak. The Storm Prediction Center 2000 UTC Day 1 convective outlook, updated 2:28 p.m. CDT, kept a Marginal risk across parts of the Florida Panhandle and far southern Alabama and made no changes from the late-morning update. SPC listed no convective watches valid on the current watch page (stamp 1416 UTC) and no mesoscale discussions were in effect on the morning product check. The live problem this afternoon is water. The Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, updated 0738 UTC, carries a Moderate risk of excessive rainfall for portions of the lower Texas coast, with a higher-end flood signal from Mobile Bay east across the Emerald and Forgotten coasts. Restoration exposure today is standing water, street flooding, and saturated roofs and ceilings, not a hail core or a widespread wind field.

What is live this afternoon

SPC’s Marginal area covers about 8,882 square miles and roughly 998,000 people. Larger centers named in the outlook include Pensacola, Panama City, Ferry Pass, Wright, and Brent. The only probabilistic severe risk drawn is a 2 percent tornado contour. No damaging-wind or large-hail areas are forecast. The discussion, carried forward at 20Z by Thornton from the 11:25 a.m. CDT Gleason/Chalmers update, says a nearly stationary front sits across the Southeast with precipitable water above 2 inches south of it. A weak offshore surface low may still form and briefly raise low-level shear near the coast. If that happens, storms can spin up transient circulations, mainly a waterspout or a brief tornado. Poor lapse rates and weak instability are the brake. Recent RAP runs even suggest the low-level wind bump may not arrive.

WPC’s Day 1 excessive-rainfall discussion, written by Weiss at 3:46 a.m. EDT and still the valid Day 1 product this afternoon, is the sharper desk. Precipitable water of 2.25 to 2.5 inches sits above the 99th percentile, warm-cloud depths are deep, and rainfall rates of 2 to 3 inches per hour are in the forecast along the stalled front. From Mobile Bay east to the Florida Panhandle, WPC expects some spots at 3 to 5 inches, locally as much as 8. A small Moderate was considered there and held at a high-end Slight after coordination with the Mobile and Tallahassee offices. On the lower Texas coast, between Brownsville and Corpus Christi, the same discussion raised a targeted Moderate. Repeated onshore cells, rates of 2 to 3 inches per hour, and local maxima above 10 inches are on the table. REFS and HREF showed a greater than 50 percent chance of at least 8 inches. Recent rain of 2 to 4 inches in 12 hours, and up to 8 inches in three days, is already on the ground in parts of that corridor. A separate heavier-rain signal sits on the Georgia coast near Savannah, where flash-flood guidance is locally 1 to 2 inches in three hours after recent saturation.

The National Weather Service short-range discussion at 3:50 p.m. EDT said locally heavy rain continues into Monday for southern Texas and northern Florida. A Flood Watch remains active across northern Florida into southern Georgia through Monday evening, with an additional 2 to 4 inches possible. The New Orleans forecast discussion at 12:50 p.m. CDT kept a Flood Watch through this evening for the eastern half of southeast Louisiana and coastal Mississippi, with another 1 to 3 inches possible east of I-55 and lighter rain west of it. Morning flash-flood warnings for parts of Bay, Walton, and Okaloosa counties had already expired by early afternoon. They are last-24-hour tickets, not live warnings at this writing.

Hotspots

Lower Texas coast: Brownsville to Corpus Christi

This is the Moderate excessive-rain area. Counties in the prior-cycle discussion that still frame the threat include Kenedy, Willacy, and the northeastern edge of Cameron, with the urban question centered on Brownsville, Harlingen, and any cell that drifts into Corpus Christi. Sandy soils can take a lot of rain. Urban streets and poor drainage cannot. Restoration read: water extraction and contents moves if a training band sits on a neighborhood, not a wind or hail claim cycle. Do not treat a Moderate rainfall outlook as a confirmed flash-flood warning for every block.

Florida Panhandle and far southern Alabama

Pensacola, Ferry Pass, Brent, Fort Walton Beach, Destin, and Panama City sit in the Marginal severe area and in the heavier Gulf-coast rain plume. Morning radar-indicated flash flooding was called for southeastern Okaloosa (Wright, Fort Walton Beach, Niceville, Destin) until 9:45 a.m. CDT, and for west-central Bay and southwestern Walton (Santa Rosa Beach, Freeport, Sandestin, Inlet Beach) until 10:45 a.m. CDT. Special marine warnings earlier today flagged waterspout potential south of Destin and along Apalachee Bay. Restoration read: check low-lying commercial pads, beach-corridor retail, and any roof that took repeated cells overnight. A brief coastal circulation is a tree-and-edge-metal check, not a territory-wide wind event. No tornado watch is up.

Southeast Louisiana, coastal Mississippi, and the Georgia coast

East of I-55 in the New Orleans service area, the Flood Watch runs through this evening, with localized flooding still possible on another 1 to 3 inches. Coastal Mississippi zones were included in that same watch. Around Savannah, WPC flagged a two-round setup: sea-breeze storms this afternoon and a possible second round tonight if the Panhandle wave lifts northeast. Restoration read: crawl spaces, flat roofs, and parking-lot drains. This is a Marginal-to-Slight flood problem on already wet ground, not a severe-thunderstorm warning day.

Just hit

The tickets already on the board are water, and they are morning products. National Weather Service Tallahassee, issued by Jacksonville, put a flash-flood warning on west-central Bay and southwestern Walton at 8:38 a.m. EDT after 1 to 3 inches, with another 1 to 2 inches possible. National Weather Service Mobile, issued by New Orleans, warned southeastern Okaloosa at 6:52 a.m. CDT after 2 to 4 inches, with another 1 to 3 possible. Both warnings expired before noon CDT. Waterspout-capable cells were noted on the nearshore Gulf from south of Destin toward Panama City Beach and on Apalachee Bay. No SPC severe-watch number was issued today. The most recent convective watch on the SPC page remains watch 676, and it is not valid. Iowa river flood warnings (Iowa River, South Skunk, Des Moines, Raccoon) are lingering river statements, not a new convective ticket.

Afternoon pulse

Region	Main threats	SPC/NWS level	Status
Florida Panhandle / far south Alabama	Brief tornado or waterspout, heavy rain	SPC Marginal, 2% tornado; WPC high-end Slight flood	Live, no watch
Lower Texas coast	Training rain, urban flooding	WPC Moderate excessive rain	Live through tonight
SE Louisiana / coastal Mississippi	1–3 more inches east of I-55	Flood Watch through this evening	Live, localized
North Florida into south Georgia	Another 2–4 inches into Monday	Flood Watch through Monday evening	Live
Georgia coast near Savannah	Repeating 2–3 in/hr cells	WPC local heavier-rain signal	Conditional
Plains, Midwest, Northeast	Cooler air, no severe	No SPC risk	Quiet
Southern California	Extreme heat, not storms	Extreme Heat Warning into Thursday	Not a storm ticket

What this means for restoration teams

Stage water, not wind. On the lower Texas coast the job is extraction timing: a band can drop several inches in a couple of hours on ground that already took rain yesterday and Friday. On the Panhandle the job is the overlap of a Marginal spin-up risk and a Slight flood risk. Crews in Pensacola, Fort Walton Beach, and Panama City should expect wet ceilings and street closures before they expect shingle loss. Southeast Louisiana and coastal Mississippi are a watch-through-evening problem east of I-55. Savannah is a second-round overnight check, not a dispatch-now severe call. Heat warnings in Southern California and freeze headlines Monday morning in parts of Minnesota and Wisconsin are real, and they are not storm-damage tickets.

What this is not

This is not a Slight or Enhanced severe-thunderstorm day. SPC drew no wind risk and no hail risk. It is not a derecho. It is not a U.S. hurricane landfall. Hurricane Rachel, 105 mph at 2:00 p.m. MST, was near 20.1 N, 114.3 W, moving west at 6 mph, a few hundred miles southwest of the Baja California tip. Hurricane warnings on the Pacific waters off Mexico are offshore marine products, not a U.S. coastal warning. Hurricane Nolo was crossing the International Date Line and leaving NHC responsibility, well west-northwest of Hawaii. The Atlantic has no tropical cyclones this afternoon. A low may form over the southwestern Gulf around midweek, with a 7-day formation chance near 40 percent and a 48-hour chance near 0 percent as of the 2 p.m. EDT outlook. That is not a named storm on U.S. land.

Looking ahead one day

SPC’s 0600 UTC Day 2 outlook, issued 12:21 a.m. CDT, said severe storms are unlikely across the United States on Monday. Moisture and storms stay pinned to the northern Gulf Coast and Florida under a large surface high. WPC’s short-range discussion keeps locally heavy rain going into Monday on southern Texas and northern Florida, and it placed a Slight risk of excessive rainfall on southern Texas for tomorrow. The Flood Watch from northern Florida into southern Georgia runs through Monday evening. The front sags south. The severe window does not open behind it.

Sources

SPC Day 1 convective outlook, 2000 UTC update, 2:28 p.m. CDT October 4, 2026: spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
SPC current watches, no watches valid, page stamp 1416 UTC October 4, 2026: spc.noaa.gov/products/watch
WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, updated 0738 UTC October 4, 2026: wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/ero.php
WPC Short Range Forecast Discussion, 3:50 p.m. EDT October 4, 2026: wpc.ncep.noaa.gov short-range discussion
NWS watches and warnings text summary: weather.gov WWA summary
NWS New Orleans area forecast discussion, 12:50 p.m. CDT October 4, 2026
NHC active cyclones, 2 p.m. EDT Atlantic outlook and Hurricane Rachel advisory, October 4, 2026: nhc.noaa.gov
Morning Storm Tracker for this date: Storm Updates, October 4, 2026 (Morning)

Informational only — not an official warning. Confirm every local product at weather.gov and spc.noaa.gov before a crew rolls. Turn around, don’t drown.

October 4, 2026

Storm Updates: Gulf Coast Slight Flood, Quiet Severe Pulse — Saturday, October 3, 2026

This is the Saturday afternoon Storm Tracker desk for October 3, 2026. The organized severe window is still closed. The Storm Prediction Center 2000 UTC Day 1 convective outlook, updated 2:46 p.m. CDT by Thornton and valid 2000 UTC Saturday through 1200 UTC Sunday, carries no severe thunderstorm areas. The summary line is unchanged from the morning issuance: organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. The 20z update made only minor adjustments to the general thunder line.

What is organized this afternoon is water, not wind or hail. Restoration exposure is coastal rain on the central Gulf Coast and the lower Texas coast, plus river stages already above flood stage in eastern Iowa. There is no convective watch, no mesoscale discussion, and no SPC local storm report on the board. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What is live this afternoon

No convective watches are currently valid. SPC’s watch page, updated 21:16 UTC Saturday, lists none. The most recently issued watch remains Severe Thunderstorm Watch 676. No mesoscale discussions are in effect as of 21:10 UTC; the most recently issued discussion is MD 2345. The national watches-and-warnings text summary does not show a live Severe Thunderstorm Warning or Tornado Warning this afternoon.

SPC local storm reports for the Saturday convective day, 1200 UTC Saturday through 1159 UTC Sunday, show no tornado, hail, or wind reports received as of this desk. The afternoon severe hit list is empty. Showers and low-topped thunderstorms over parts of the Dakotas are spreading into Minnesota. Surface dewpoints are generally in the 40s. A pocket of weak instability can support occasional lightning, and convectively enhanced wind gusts may occur as low-level lapse rates steepen, but SPC keeps the overall severe-wind risk low because instability is minimal.

The Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, updated 0738 UTC Saturday and valid 12 UTC Saturday through 12 UTC Sunday, still holds a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall for the central Gulf Coast and the lower Texas coast. Forecaster Wegman left both coastal Slight Risk areas in place and kept a higher-end Slight Risk from New Orleans through much of the western Florida Panhandle, citing urban drainage and rainfall volume. There is no Marginal, Slight, Enhanced, Moderate, or High severe-risk area on the Day 1 categorical map.

Hotspot 1 — Central Gulf Coast

A tropical wave moving across the Gulf is funneling record to near-record atmospheric moisture into much of the Gulf Coast. A 15 to 25 knot southerly flow at 850 mb supports numerous showers and thunderstorms into the central Gulf Coast today and tonight. Precipitable water is at or above 2.5 inches for many areas. Cloud cover and the October sun should limit instability away from the coast, so cells that reach the shoreline are not expected to travel far inland without weakening. A weak mid- and upper-level wave centered over the Bay of Campeche is aiding the northward moisture push. SPC still expects this convection to stay disorganized, with weak low-level winds.

WPC’s coast can expect 3 to 6 inches of rain today, with locally higher amounts. Flash-flood guidance is high and soils have been dry, but the volume can still overcome that in urban drainage from New Orleans through the western Florida Panhandle. Mississippi and Alabama coastal counties sit in the same Slight Risk envelope. A nearly stationary front from south and coastal Texas into the Southeast and Carolinas remains the broader thunderstorm focus. Poor lapse rates aloft and weak deep-layer shear should limit organized severe storms along that front through tonight.

Cities and counties to watch: New Orleans and the south-shore and east-bank parishes, coastal Mississippi from Hancock through Jackson County, Mobile and Baldwin counties in Alabama, and the western Florida Panhandle from Pensacola toward Panama City. River products already on the board are not the same as a flash-flood warning. National Weather Service Mobile, issued by New Orleans, has a flood warning for the Styx River near Elsanor in Baldwin County for minor flooding from Sunday evening into Monday morning, with a forecast crest of 12.3 feet early Monday against a 12.0-foot flood stage. A separate flood warning covers the Shoal River near Crestview in Okaloosa County for minor flooding from Monday evening into Thursday morning, crest forecast 9.0 feet Tuesday against an 8.0-foot flood stage.

Restoration read: water first, and only where a warning or measured street flood verifies. Stage extractors and moisture meters for urban low spots and slab-on-grade first floors. This is not a wind or hail board. Do not staff a regional roof crew on a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall. The Styx and Shoal warnings are river-stage tickets for later tonight through early next week, not an afternoon structural-wind call.

Hotspot 2 — Lower Texas coast

The second Slight Risk remains on the coast of Deep South Texas. Onshore northeasterly flow of the same deep tropical moisture may reach urban areas such as Brownsville. Because this stretch of coast sits roughly perpendicular to the mean flow, WPC expects the onshore push to let convection move a few miles inland before it dissipates. No change was made to that Slight Risk area on the 0738 UTC update.

Friday’s central Texas excessive-rain story is a different board. Those time-limited products are not the Saturday Slight Risk. If a river or areal flood warning is still up in central or south-central Texas, treat it as yesterday’s water still in the channel.

Restoration read: Brownsville and the lower Texas coast are the new water ticket if cells train against the coast. Do not send the same crew to the Gulf Coast polygon and a leftover central Texas channel without checking which county has a warning now.

Hotspot 3 — Dakotas into Minnesota, and Iowa river stages

A shortwave trough in the northern mid-level westerlies continues east across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Showers and low-topped storms ongoing over parts of the Dakotas spread into Minnesota this afternoon. SPC allows a convectively enhanced gust as lapse rates steepen. The severe risk stays low. There is no watch and no storm report to hang a roof or tree crew on.

Eastern Iowa is the leftover water ticket. National Weather Service Quad Cities flood statements at 9:07 a.m. CDT Saturday keep a major flood warning on the Wapsipinicon River near De Witt 4S, affecting Clinton and Scott counties, until further notice. The stage was 12.9 feet at 8:30 a.m., flood stage is 11.0 feet, and impacts at 13.0 feet include residences along the river. The North Skunk River near Sigourney, Keokuk County, remains in a moderate flood warning until late Sunday night, stage 18.4 feet against a 16.0-foot flood stage, mostly agricultural land. The Skunk River at Augusta, affecting Lee, Henry, and Des Moines counties, remains in a minor flood warning until Sunday evening, stage 16.9 feet against a 15.0-foot flood stage.

Restoration read: the Wapsipinicon near De Witt is the residential river ticket if water is already in yards or first floors. The Skunk statements are mostly agricultural. Neither is a new convective watch, and neither produced an SPC wind or hail report today.

Just hit

The last 24 hours did not add a severe-report ticket. SPC’s Saturday report page has no tornado, hail, or wind reports. Friday night into Saturday morning did not leave a new hail or tornado survey on the filtered report page. The tickets already open are river stages: major flooding on the Wapsipinicon near De Witt, moderate flooding on the North Skunk near Sigourney, and minor flooding on the Skunk at Augusta. Gulf Coast river rises on the Styx and Shoal are forecast products for Sunday night into early next week, not claims already logged this afternoon.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / WPC / NWS level	Status this afternoon
Central Gulf Coast (SE LA, coastal MS/AL, western FL Panhandle)	Heavy rain, urban flash flood	WPC Slight, higher-end on the coast	Live today and tonight; 3–6 inches, locally higher
Lower Texas coast (Brownsville)	Onshore heavy rain	WPC Slight	Live; cells may push a few miles inland
Dakotas into Minnesota	Low-topped storms, gusts	No severe area	Spreading east; severe risk low
Southeast front into the Carolinas	General thunderstorms	No severe area	Weak shear, poor lapse rates
Eastern Iowa rivers	River flood, some residences	Flood warnings, not a watch	Wapsipinicon major; Skunk moderate to minor
Baldwin AL / Okaloosa FL rivers	Minor river flood later	Flood warnings issued this morning	Styx Sunday night; Shoal Monday night
U.S. mainland tropics	None	Rachel SW of Baja; no coastal warnings	Not a U.S. land desk

What this means for restoration teams

There is no wind-driven roof board on the Day 1 outlook. A 3-to-6-inch coastal rain is wet drywall, flooring, and a 24-to-48-hour mold clock only where water actually enters. High flash-flood guidance and dry soils mean many miles of the Slight Risk will not produce a claim. Staff the warning, not the polygon. Urban New Orleans through the western Florida Panhandle is the higher-end piece of the same Slight Risk because of drainage, not because a watch is up.

Eastern Iowa is the only residential water ticket already on a river gauge this afternoon, and it is the Wapsipinicon near De Witt, not a statewide Iowa event. Southwest Kansas and central Texas remain yesterday’s water only if a flood statement is still valid. The empty SPC report page means there is no new hail, tree, or tornado survey from today.

What this is not

This is not a derecho, not a tornado outbreak, and not a U.S. hurricane landfall. Hurricane Rachel, Advisory information at 2:00 p.m. MST Saturday, is near 19.8°N, 112.5°W, about 270 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California, moving west-northwest at 5 mph, with maximum sustained winds of 80 mph. There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. A slow west to west-northwest motion continues through the weekend, away from the U.S. mainland. Swells can affect west-central Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula. That is a marine hazard, not a U.S. land ticket. Hurricane warnings on the national summary this afternoon are offshore-waters products for the eastern Pacific within 250 nautical miles of Mexico, not U.S. coastal warnings.

Hurricane Nolo is a Central Pacific system accelerating west and expected to cross the International Date Line on Sunday. It is not a U.S. mainland threat. The Atlantic basin has no tropical cyclones. The Gulf Coast rain is tied to a tropical wave and deep moisture, not to a named storm making landfall.

Looking ahead

The Day 2 convective outlook, issued 12:16 p.m. CDT Saturday and valid 1200 UTC Sunday through 1200 UTC Monday, also carries no severe thunderstorm areas. Severe storms are not forecast for Sunday. An upper low over southern Canada is forecast to intensify as it crosses the northern and eastern Great Lakes, with a leading shortwave moving from the eastern Lakes into the Northeast and a portion of the cold front moving offshore. Scattered thunderstorms are expected ahead of the front and along sea-breeze boundaries, but very weak mid-level lapse rates and little deep-layer shear should keep organization minimal. A sporadic wet microburst is possible near and just offshore the southern Alabama and Florida coasts. Severe potential stays low. Shortwave ridging to the west supports stable conditions over much of the country, with isolated storms possible over a small part of central and southwest Colorado near the higher terrain.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook for Saturday, October 3, 2026, and the 1730 UTC Day 2 outlook; SPC current watches (none valid); SPC mesoscale discussions (none in effect); SPC storm reports for October 3 (no tornado, hail, or wind reports received); Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, updated 0738 UTC Saturday; National Weather Service watches, warnings, and advisories summary; National Hurricane Center position on Hurricane Rachel, 2:00 p.m. MST Saturday. Morning desk: Storm Updates: Gulf Coast Slight Flood, Quiet Severe Pulse — Saturday, October 3, 2026 (Morning).

Disclaimer: Informational only — not an official warning. This is an afternoon desk summary of public National Weather Service, Storm Prediction Center, Weather Prediction Center, and National Hurricane Center products. It is not a forecast for a specific address and not a substitute for local NWS products. Watches and warnings expire and get replaced. Confirm the county or ZIP on weather.gov or spc.noaa.gov before travel or work. Turn around, don’t drown.

October 3, 2026

Storm Updates: New Mexico Flood Moderate, Utah–Southeast Marginal — Tuesday, September 22, 2026

This is a live Tuesday afternoon snapshot of U.S. local-storm activity as of Tuesday, September 22, 2026. The organized flood desk remains over southern New Mexico. The Storm Prediction Center 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook still holds two Marginal Risk corridors — much of Utah into adjacent Wyoming and Colorado, and a portion of the Southeast that the 20Z update shifted farther south and east into central Georgia and southern Alabama. No convective watches are currently valid. Restoration exposure this afternoon into tonight is water first in southern New Mexico and far west Texas, isolated severe wind and marginally severe hail on the Utah corridor, locally severe gusts plus leftover flood axes in the Southeast and central Appalachians, and tree/wire work already on the board in Lauderdale County, Alabama.

These are county- and ZIP-scale thunderstorms and flood pulses, not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. There is no named tropical cyclone threatening U.S. land this afternoon. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll. Morning desk: Storm Updates September 22, 2026 (Morning).

What is live this afternoon

SPC’s 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook (issued 2:56 p.m. CDT Tuesday, September 22, 2026; Halbert/Lyons; valid 222000Z–231200Z) keeps a Marginal Risk for much of Utah into adjacent Wyoming and Colorado, and across a portion of the Southeast. Summary: isolated severe wind gusts expected today in Utah into southwest Wyoming and western Colorado; thunderstorms capable of strong to locally severe damaging gusts also possible across parts of the Southeast. The 20Z update moved the Southeast Marginal farther south and east into central Georgia and southern Alabama, where storms had already developed in an unstable airmass with steep low-level lapse rates.

No convective watches were currently valid as of the SPC watches page update at 15:56:05 UTC Tuesday, September 22, 2026. Most recent watch on the board: 0674. Check spc.noaa.gov/products/watch before you stage.

WPC’s Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 1553 UTC Tuesday, September 22, 2026; Taylor/Chenard; valid 16Z Tue–12Z Wed) still holds a Moderate Risk across portions of southern New Mexico. WPC notes a potentially significant multi-day flood event over New Mexico and far southwest Texas, with 1–2 inches per hour rain rates this afternoon and training bands tonight. Neighborhood guidance: moderate chance of at least 3 inches (about 40–60 percent) and a low chance of at least 5 inches. Slight Risk axes remain over central to southeast Virginia into South Carolina and West Virginia into southwest Virginia. South Florida stays a WPC Marginal urban-flood desk.

Live warning-scale water this afternoon includes NWS flash-flood warnings for parts of Lincoln/Socorro, Doña Ana/Otero in New Mexico, and Randolph/Webster in West Virginia — already hung as separate Tygart Media warning pulses. NWS also had a flood advisory for west-central Lee County, Alabama (Auburn/Opelika) into late afternoon and a severe thunderstorm warning earlier over Jackson and DeKalb Counties, Alabama.

Hotspot 1 — Southern New Mexico / far west Texas

Still the national flood desk. An upper trough, jet right-entrance dynamics, deep southerly moisture, and precipitable water toward mid/late September record levels support a multi-day event. Afternoon is scattered thunderstorms and flash-flood potential; overnight guidance concentrates a rain shield with heavier cores over southern New Mexico. Sacramento Mountains burn scars remain in the higher-impact language. Flash-flood warnings this afternoon already covered Lincoln, Socorro, Doña Ana, and Otero Counties.

Restoration read: water first, overnight worse than the afternoon pulse. Stage pumps and air movers before the shield organizes. Low-water crossings and burn-scar runoff fail first. Start extraction the same night if water is inside.

Hotspot 2 — Utah into southwest Wyoming and western Colorado

SPC Marginal wind-and-hail corridor is the afternoon convective desk in the West. A potent shortwave over the western Great Basin and a belt of stronger mid-level flow from northern Arizona into central and northern Utah support scattered to numerous storms. Buoyancy stays modest (MLCAPE generally under 1,000 J/kg), but shear and cold mid-levels support organized cells, isolated large hail, and strong gusts off high bases and steep low-level lapse rates. Activity can spill into western Colorado and southwest Wyoming late afternoon into early evening. Larger centers inside the earlier outlook footprint include Salt Lake City, West Valley City, Provo, West Jordan, and Orem.

Restoration read: wind and isolated hail, not a flood CAT. Stage tarps, generators, and tree crews before early evening. Soft-metal roofs and skylights after stronger cores only if it is safe.

Hotspot 3 — Southeast / southern Appalachians

SPC Marginal for the Southeast is a slow-moving cold front into a moist airmass. The 20Z update pulled the risk south and east into central Georgia and southern Alabama, matching storms already on radar. Weak shear keeps the mode multicellular and outflow-dominant; water-loaded downdrafts can still put 50–60 mph gusts on the ground. Today’s preliminary LSRs already show Lauderdale County, Alabama wind damage: power lines down west of Lexington around 1814 UTC, a power pole and lines on a vehicle west of Rogersville around 1835 UTC, and lines down at Lauderdale County High School and the adjacent parking lot around 1856 UTC (NWS Huntsville).

WPC Slight flood axes remain over southeast Virginia into South Carolina and West Virginia into southwest Virginia, where soils are already wet and flash-flood guidance is lower. Randolph and Webster Counties, West Virginia, carried a live flash-flood warning into the evening.

Restoration read: gusty wind and street flooding can share the same ZIP. Alabama tree and wire jobs are already tickets. Charlotte-to-Atlanta language from this morning is not a derecho — treat each county warning as a local pulse.

Just hit

SPC preliminary local storm reports for the 22/1200 UTC–23/1159 UTC window (as of this afternoon hang) show no tornado reports and no hail reports yet. Wind reports on the board are Lauderdale County, Alabama: lines down 3 W Lexington; pole and lines on a vehicle 2 W Rogersville; lines down at Lauderdale County High School in Rogersville. Those are already restoration tickets — trees, wire, and possible vehicle/roof work — not a regional outbreak.

Monday night’s Appalachians–Southeast flash-flood pulse is aftermath. This afternoon’s live water is New Mexico and pockets of West Virginia, plus a Lee County, Alabama flood advisory earlier this afternoon.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / WPC / NWS level	Status this afternoon
Southern NM / far west TX	Flash flood, training rain tonight, burn-scar runoff	WPC Moderate + live FFWs	Live flood desk today–Wed
Utah into SW WY / western CO	Severe wind gusts, isolated large hail	SPC Marginal	Afternoon–early evening
SE / central GA / southern AL	Locally severe damaging gusts, trees/wire	SPC Marginal (shifted S/E at 20Z)	Live; AL LSRs already in
SE VA into SC; WV into SW VA	Flash flood / heavy rain	WPC Slight + WV FFWs	Today into tonight
South Florida	Urban flash flood	WPC Marginal	Local
U.S. mainland tropics	No landfalling tropical cyclone	NHC quiet for mainland	Quiet

What this means for restoration teams

Southern New Mexico is the water CAT if the Moderate risk verifies overnight — extraction, drying, and a 24–48 hour mold clock. Utah’s Marginal corridor is wind and isolated hail. Southeast Marginal wind is already producing Lauderdale County tickets; treat Georgia and Alabama warnings as local, not a derecho. West Virginia water is a second flood desk on already-wet ground. Stage New Mexico before the overnight shield. Start extraction the same night if water is inside. Turn around, don’t drown.

What this is not

This is not a regional derecho and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. Post-tropical Fay is open Atlantic near the Azores and is not a U.S. land threat. Hurricane Polo and Tropical Storm Odalys remain eastern Pacific systems and are not mainland landfall threats today. No convective watches are up. Do not invent a named CAT for Restoration Intel off this pulse.

Looking ahead

SPC’s current Day 2 outlook (Wednesday, September 23) is Marginal Risk as of the 1719 UTC issuance (Dean). Day 3 is currently no severe thunderstorms. That does not cancel tonight’s New Mexico flood problem or this evening’s Utah and Southeast Marginal corridors. Watch the next Storm Tracker update rather than assuming the Moderate rainfall risk is the last line of the week.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources dated Tuesday, September 22, 2026: SPC 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook (Halbert/Lyons, 2:56 p.m. CDT); SPC watches page updated 15:56:05 UTC (no watches valid; last watch 0674); SPC today’s LSRs (Lauderdale County, AL wind); WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook updated 1553 UTC (Taylor/Chenard); NWS flash-flood warnings for Lincoln/Socorro, Doña Ana/Otero, NM and Randolph/Webster, WV; NHC advisories (Fay remnant, Polo, Odalys). Morning desk: September 22, 2026 (Morning).

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watch, and local storm reports, and WPC Day 1 ERO for the flood overlay.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

September 22, 2026

Storm Updates: Appalachians–Southeast Marginal + Central Appalachians Flood Slight — Monday, September 21, 2026

This is a live Monday afternoon snapshot of U.S. local-storm activity as of Monday, September 21, 2026. The Storm Prediction Center 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook holds a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms from parts of the Southeast into the central Appalachians and over the Texas South Plains. No convective watches are currently valid. The Weather Prediction Center maintains a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over portions of the central Appalachians. Scattered severe thunderstorm warnings and flash-flood warnings remain active this afternoon across portions of the Tennessee Valley, Carolinas, Alabama, and West Virginia.

These are county- and ZIP-scale thunderstorms and localized heavy-rain pulses, not a mainland hurricane landfall or organized derecho. Restoration exposure this afternoon and evening is wind-driven tree and roof work, isolated hail, and interior water where cells train or flash-flood warnings verify. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What is live this afternoon

SPC’s Marginal Risk covers the Southeast into the southern and central Appalachians, with isolated damaging wind gusts of 50–60 mph the primary threat. A second Marginal area sits over the Texas South Plains where isolated large hail and severe gusts remain possible later today. Mesoscale Discussion 2323 (issued 1938 UTC) covers the Texas South Plains into the Permian Basin and notes watch issuance is unlikely; strongest storms may briefly produce large hail up to 1.25 inches and marginally severe wind.

WPC’s Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook keeps a Slight Risk over the central Appalachians (expanded earlier to include more of West Virginia and southwest Virginia). Guidance supports 1–3 inches with locally higher amounts where cells train near a backdoor cold front and shortwave energy. Flash Flood Warnings and Flood Warnings remain active or recently expired across portions of West Virginia, Ohio, and adjacent counties from overnight and early-morning convection.

Hotspot 1 — Central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic fringe (WPC Slight + SPC Marginal)

This is the dual-threat corridor. Scattered thunderstorms continue along and south of a cold front stretching from southern Virginia west-northwest into northern Kentucky and southwestward. Highest coverage expected from southeast Tennessee and northwest Georgia through northern Alabama into central/southern Mississippi and eastern Louisiana, with additional activity into southwest Virginia and West Virginia. Vertical shear is weak; storm mode is largely multicellular and outflow-dominant, but ample moisture (PW values over 2 inches) supports strong to locally severe gusts and flash flooding on saturated soils.

Cities and counties to watch: Charleston, Parkersburg, and surrounding West Virginia counties; southwest Virginia counties including Giles, Mercer, and Summers; portions of eastern Kentucky and southern Ohio; Chattanooga and Knoxville metro fringes in Tennessee; northern Alabama counties including Madison and Marshall.

Restoration read: wind and water both in play. Stage tarps, generators, and tree crews. Flash-flood warnings mean extraction and drying work may already be on the books by evening. Photograph roofs in remaining daylight only if it is safe.

Hotspot 2 — Texas South Plains and northeast Texas

Isolated to widely scattered storms continue near the intersection of a weak surface trough and cold front across the Texas South Plains into the Permian Basin. MD 2323 flags the potential for brief severe storms capable of large hail and marginally severe wind before dissipation this evening. A secondary area of higher thunderstorm coverage is expected over northeast Texas this afternoon and evening, where water-loaded downbursts capable of damaging wind gusts are possible.

Cities and counties to watch: Lubbock, Midland, and surrounding South Plains counties; portions of northeast Texas near the Red River. Local Severe Thunderstorm Warnings have already fired this afternoon in the region.

Restoration read: hail and wind first. Check vehicle and roof damage reports quickly; these are short-lived cells but can produce ticket-scale damage in a single ZIP.

Hotspot 3 — Southeast scatter (Carolinas, Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi)

Ongoing multicell storms continue to produce local Severe Thunderstorm Warnings with 60 mph wind and small to quarter-size hail. Coverage is highest from southeast Tennessee and northwest Georgia through northern Alabama into central/southern Mississippi and eastern Louisiana. Storms are moving relatively slowly or nearly stationary in places, increasing the local flash-flood and wind-damage potential.

Cities and counties to watch: Chattanooga, Huntsville, Birmingham metro areas; portions of the Carolinas and northern Georgia where warnings have been active this afternoon.

Restoration read: scattered wind and tree damage plus isolated water jobs. Treat each warning county as its own ticket rather than a regional event.

Just hit

Overnight and early-morning convection produced Flash Flood Warnings across portions of West Virginia and southeast Ohio, with residual river and stream rises still ongoing in some gauges. Yesterday’s High Plains activity (eastern Colorado into western Kansas) produced large hail reports up to baseball size and is already in the ticket pipeline for those counties. Local wind damage reports from trees and power lines continue to filter in from the Ohio Valley, Illinois, Missouri, Georgia, Alabama, and the Carolinas. No new U.S. mainland tropical cyclone threat is in the National Hurricane Center outlook at this hour.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS level	Status this afternoon
Central Appalachians / WV–SW VA	Flash flood, damaging wind, trees	WPC Slight + SPC Marginal	Live warnings + overnight residual
Southeast / TN–AL–GA–MS–Carolinas	Damaging wind, isolated hail, lightning	SPC Marginal + local SVR	Scattered warnings active
Texas South Plains / NE TX	Large hail, severe gusts	SPC Marginal + MD 2323	Isolated cells, watch unlikely
Ohio Valley residual	Flooding from earlier rain	Local Flood Warnings	Aftermath / still in channel
Atlantic / Gulf vs. U.S. mainland	No landfalling tropical cyclone	Quiet on the mainland coast	Quiet

What this means for restoration teams

Wind at 50–60 mph is roof, siding, gutter, and tree-on-structure work. Hail on the South Plains is vehicle and roof impact. Heavy rain on the central Appalachians Slight Risk is wet drywall and a 24–48 hour mold clock where flash flooding verifies. Overnight West Virginia and Ohio water is already inside some buildings.

For teams near active warnings: stage before the next cell arrives, not after the first report. Property owners should photograph damage in daylight if it is safe, call the carrier, and start extraction the same night if water is inside.

What this is not

This is not a regional derecho and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. The work this afternoon and evening, if it verifies, will be scattered: a wind swath through a Tennessee or West Virginia county, a flooded intersection where Appalachian cells train, isolated hail on the South Plains. That is the local-storm pattern this desk should staff.

Looking ahead

Tuesday the front continues to push south and east with another Marginal Risk possible over portions of the Southeast. Residual flooding in the central Appalachians may linger into Tuesday morning. Watch the next Storm Tracker update rather than assuming today’s Marginal and Slight Risk areas are the last line of the week.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Convective Outlook (2000 UTC, September 21, 2026) and Mesoscale Discussion 2323; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook; National Weather Service warning text for Charleston WV, Blacksburg VA, Huntsville AL, Morristown TN, Lubbock TX, and neighboring offices; SPC Local Storm Reports.

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watches, MDs, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay. Related desk: Monday morning Storm Updates.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

September 21, 2026