Storm Updates: Plains Severe — Nov 2

Tropical: None · Severe: Slight · Flood: Slight

What Changed

• Compared with this morning’s pulse table (quiet-pulse-2026-11-02-morning: Tropical: None · Severe: Enhanced · Flood: Slight): SPC Day 1 has been updated. Earlier cycles (including 1300 UTC and 1630 UTC) carried an Enhanced Risk across north-central Oklahoma and south-central Kansas. The latest 0100 UTC November 3 outlook (issued 0700 PM CST November 2 / 0100Z November 3, valid 030100Z–031200Z) holds a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of the southern and central Plains. A line of strong to severe storms is ongoing from far southern Kansas into southwest Oklahoma, with QLCS tornado potential and damaging winds. Tornado Watches 701, 702, and 703 remain active covering portions of Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas.
• WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 0100 UTC November 3, discussion 802 PM EST November 2) maintains a Slight Risk for portions of central and southern Florida, focused along the east coast. The prior Moderate Risk over the Four Corners / Southwest has been removed; Plains flash-flood risk was lowered and the Slight removed with this update as storm mode is progressive.
• Tropical lane remains closed. National Hurricane Center confirms no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf of America. A western Atlantic disturbance has a 30 percent chance of subtropical development over the next 7 days but no U.S. coastal or Gulf watches or warnings.
• Active Tornado Watches 701 (expires 0400 UTC Nov 3), 702 (expires 0500 UTC), and 703 (expires 0900 UTC) plus mesoscale discussions confirm ongoing severe potential with embedded rotating elements and possible gusts above 70 mph. Preliminary LSRs include hail reports near Norman, Moore, and Kingfisher, Oklahoma, and wind gusts to 59–61 mph near Hobart, Oklahoma, and Elkhart, Kansas. No confirmed tornado reports in the latest summary.
• Nothing material upgraded beyond Slight on the severe or flood lanes. The Enhanced window has closed; the overnight progression into Missouri and Arkansas continues under the Slight.

Live Status

As of the afternoon desk on Monday, November 2, 2026 (approximately 8:16 PM PST / 04:16 UTC November 3), the national picture centers on the southern and central Plains. The Storm Prediction Center’s latest Day 1 Convective Outlook (0100 UTC November 3 cycle) states: “THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS.” Severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes are expected this evening into tonight, with the threat impacting western Missouri and northwest Arkansas overnight. A line of storms is tracking east-northeast across central Oklahoma into south-central Kansas under 65–70 knots of deep-layer shear and mid-level jet support. Discrete cells near the Red River carry supercell potential. The Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook holds a Slight Risk across central and southern Florida. No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning is in effect on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America.

Hotspots

• Southern and central Plains (Oklahoma, Kansas, northwest Texas): Primary focus under SPC Slight Risk and active Tornado Watches 701–703. Ongoing linear mode with embedded mesovortices capable of QLCS tornadoes and damaging winds to 70+ mph. Further south near the Red River, discrete supercells possible with hail, wind, and tornado risk as the low-level jet ramps up. Expect the severe threat to progress eastward into western Missouri and northwest Arkansas overnight.
• Central and southern Florida: WPC Slight Risk of excessive rainfall, focused along the east coast. Low-level easterly flow and coastal convergence support localized extreme rainfall potential overnight despite decreasing coverage. Residual Flash Flood Warnings noted earlier in Broward and Palm Beach counties.
• Residual Southwest: Prior Moderate excessive rainfall and Flash Flood Warnings across Arizona (including burn scars and river gauges) have largely wound down. Isolated residual flooding possible on saturated soils, but not the dominant lane today.

Just-Hit

Preliminary SPC local storm reports for the current period include hail near Norman, Moore, and Kingfisher, Oklahoma (up to 1.25 inches), and measured wind gusts to 59–61 mph near Hobart, Oklahoma, and Elkhart, Kansas. Tree limbs and a trampoline reported damaged in Rooks County, Kansas. No confirmed tornado reports in the latest filtered summary reviewed. Tornado Watch 701 issued at 1925 UTC November 2; additional watches 702 and 703 issued later. Downstream considerations remain for eastern Oklahoma into Missouri and Arkansas.

Pulse Table

Restoration Read

Primary short-term ticket is wind and possible tornado damage (roofs, siding, trees, power lines, outbuildings) across central Oklahoma into southern Kansas under the active watches and ongoing line. Secondary is localized flash flooding and urban ponding in central and southern Florida under the Slight ERO. Residual Southwest water extraction possible but lower priority. No named tropical restoration file. Stage for overnight progression into Missouri and Arkansas.

What This Is Not

This is not a Quiet Pulse. SPC Slight Risk and active Tornado Watches are open. WPC holds Slight, not Moderate or higher. No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America. This desk summarizes public products from the SPC, WPC, NWS, and NHC. Informational only — not an official warning.

Looking Ahead One Day

SPC Day 2 outlook (valid 031200Z–041200Z) holds a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms from east Texas and the Ark-La-Miss to the Mid Mississippi Valley. Scattered storms may produce damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes, primarily with embedded line segments and limited buoyancy. WPC Day 2 points to continued localized heavy rain potential. The Plains severe window should diminish overnight into Tuesday as the system progresses east. Monitor for residual flooding on already wet ground.

Rising Queries

Trends unreachable.

Sources

Official products: Storm Prediction Center (Day 1 Outlook 0100Z November 3 / 0700 PM CST November 2, Tornado Watches 701–703, Mesoscale Discussions, today’s LSRs), Weather Prediction Center (Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook and discussion 802 PM EST November 2), National Weather Service (watches, warnings, and advisories), National Hurricane Center (Atlantic quiet, Tropical Weather Outlook 700 PM EST November 2). Morning desk: quiet-pulse-2026-11-02-morning.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.