Tag: Tennessee storms

Storm Updates: Appalachians Flood & Rachel — Oct 11 Morning

Tropical: Post-Tropical Isaias & Rachel · Severe: Marginal · Flood: Moderate

What Changed

Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias advanced to near 35.0N 86.7W as of WPC Advisory 18 at 10:00 PM CDT Saturday, October 10, 2026, about 75 miles south of Nashville, Tennessee, moving northeast at 16 mph with maximum sustained winds of 25 mph and minimum pressure 1009 mb. Continued flood risk across the Southeast and Southern Appalachians.
Tornado Watch 679 for eastern Georgia and southern/eastern South Carolina expired at 8:00 PM EDT after verifying with multiple confirmed tornadoes. SPC Day 1 Outlook (0100 UTC October 11) now carries a Marginal Risk for isolated tornado threat across parts of the Carolinas this evening and few severe wind gusts in the Desert Southwest.
Post-Tropical Cyclone Rachel is near 30.0N 116.5W as of NHC Advisory 56 at 8:00 PM PDT, about 40 miles west of Punta Baja, Mexico, and 190 miles south of San Diego, moving north-northeast at 36 mph with 60 mph winds and 987 mb. Expected to move onshore over northern Baja tonight and dissipate early Sunday. Tropical Storm Watch remains for the Southern California coast from the U.S./Mexico border to the San Diego/Orange County line.
WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 2331 UTC) maintains Moderate Risk across the Southern Appalachians and portions of Southern California. Additional 2–5 inches, locally up to 10 inches, possible in upslope regions.
No new NHC hurricane or storm-surge warnings for U.S. land. Active Flash Flood Warnings in portions of the Carolinas; Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Arizona associated with Rachel moisture.

Live Status

As of late Saturday evening into early Sunday morning, October 11, 2026 (around 8:00 p.m. PDT / 11:00 p.m. EDT), Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias continues northeast across Tennessee toward the central Appalachians while dissipating. Additional rainfall of 2 to 5 inches with localized maxima of 10 inches remains possible across the Southern Appalachians from the western Carolinas into western Virginia. Flash, urban, and river flooding is possible, with considerable impacts including landslides across the southern Appalachians. A couple of tornadoes remain possible tonight across eastern Georgia and the Carolinas.

Post-Tropical Cyclone Rachel is accelerating north-northeast toward northern Baja California and is forecast to move onshore tonight before dissipating early Sunday over the southwestern United States. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area on the Southern California coast beginning tonight or early Sunday. Rainfall of 1 to 3 inches, locally up to 5 inches, is expected across portions of the Southwest, supporting flash and urban flooding. Strong gusty winds are expected to spread over interior portions of the Southwest, especially higher terrain.

Hotspots

Southern Appalachians (northeast Georgia, Upstate South Carolina, western North Carolina, western Virginia): Primary flood hotspot under the WPC Moderate Risk. Strong upslope flow continues to support heavy totals. Considerable flash flooding and landslides are possible. High Wind Warnings remain in elevated terrain.

Carolinas: SPC Marginal Risk for isolated tornado threat this evening into overnight with rotating cells in the warm sector. Flash Flood Warnings active in portions of western North Carolina and South Carolina.

Southern California coast and Desert Southwest: Tropical Storm Watch on the San Diego County coastal areas. Moisture from Rachel drives the WPC Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall over portions of Southern California. Marginal severe wind gust risk in the Desert Southwest. Coastal Flood Warning and Flood Watch in effect. Active Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Arizona.

Tennessee Valley residual: Center of the post-tropical system is about 75 miles south of Nashville. Residual heavy rain and isolated flash flooding continue along the track.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS / WPC level	Status this morning
Southern Appalachians (NE GA / Upstate SC / W NC / W VA)	Flash flood, landslides, 2–10 in upslope	WPC Moderate excessive rainfall	Live, ongoing into Sunday
Carolinas	Isolated tornado, flash flood	SPC Marginal; active Flash Flood Warnings	Evening into overnight
Southern California coast / Desert Southwest	Heavy rain, flash flood, TS winds possible, coastal flood	WPC Moderate; TS Watch (San Diego County); Coastal Flood Warning / Flood Watch	Increasing tonight into Sunday
Tennessee Valley residual	Residual heavy rain, isolated flood	Post-tropical 25 mph near Nashville	Ongoing, dissipating
Rest of CONUS severe board	No other organized severe	Marginal only in SW and Carolinas; no watches	Quiet elsewhere

Rising queries

huracán isaias
isaias remnants flood Appalachians
tropical storm Rachel San Diego
southern Appalachians flooding
Rachel flash flood Southwest

What this means for restoration teams

The coastal wind and surge ticket from Friday night landfall near Destin is closed. Immediate work remains inland freshwater extraction and tree/road clearance under residual rain bands and the Southern Appalachians Moderate Risk. Treat any remaining tornado reports in the Carolinas Marginal Risk as narrow local surveys. On the West Coast, stage for potential flash flooding under the Rachel moisture and Tropical Storm Watch; do not treat San Diego County as a full hurricane landfall. Distinguish residual Tennessee Valley freshwater tickets from new Appalachian upslope work and from the separate Southwest pulse.

What this is not

This is not an active hurricane or tropical-storm warning on the Gulf or Atlantic coast. All Storm Surge and Tropical Storm Warnings for Isaias have been discontinued. It is not a plains or Midwest severe outbreak. Rachel is a tropical-storm watch threat for extreme Southern California, not a major hurricane landfall. The organized hazards are the SPC Marginal risks in the Carolinas and Desert Southwest, the WPC Moderate excessive-rainfall risks in the Southern Appalachians and Southern California, and residual inland flooding from the post-tropical remnants of Isaias and Rachel.

Looking ahead

Isaias remnants are expected to continue northeast and dissipate on Sunday. SPC Day 2 outlook maintains a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over portions of Virginia and North Carolina for Sunday. Rachel is forecast to move ashore near the U.S./Mexico border tonight and weaken rapidly over the Southwest on Sunday. Watch the next Storm Tracker update for verification of the Appalachian rainfall totals and any expansion of the California products.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources, dated late Saturday, October 10 / early Sunday, October 11, 2026: NOAA Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Convective Outlook (0100 UTC October 11, Marginal Risk parts of Carolinas and Desert Southwest); Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook and Discussion (Moderate Risk Southern Appalachians and Southern California, updated 2331 UTC); WPC Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias Advisory 18 (10:00 PM CDT); National Hurricane Center Post-Tropical Cyclone Rachel Advisory 56 (8:00 PM PDT). Prior desk: Saturday afternoon GA/SC Tornadoes & Rachel.

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook and local storm reports, WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay, and nhc.noaa.gov for residual Isaias and Rachel products.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

Storm hub: Hurricane Isaias 2026 | Tropical Storm Rachel 2026

October 10, 2026

Storm Updates: New Mexico Flood Moderate, Western Dakotas Marginal — Wednesday, September 23, 2026

This is a live Wednesday afternoon snapshot of U.S. local-storm activity as of Wednesday, September 23, 2026. The organized desk is still water, not wind. The Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook holds a Moderate Risk across portions of central and eastern New Mexico. The Storm Prediction Center 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook (issued 2:58 p.m. CDT; Halbert/Lyons; valid 232000Z–241200Z) trims the severe overlay to a Marginal Risk across parts of the western Dakotas only. The southern Appalachians Marginal from the morning 1300 UTC package is off the 2000 UTC map. No convective watches are currently valid. No mesoscale discussions are in effect.

These are county- and ZIP-scale flood and isolated hail/wind pulses, not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. Restoration exposure this afternoon into tonight is water first in New Mexico and far west Texas (training storms, burn-scar runoff, arroyos), leftover wet soils from Ohio through the southern Appalachians, and isolated damaging gusts or marginally severe to locally 2-inch hail if the western Dakotas cells organize. Separately, Tropical Storm Nolo now carries a Hurricane Watch for Hawaii County — not a CONUS landfall, and not the Restoration Intel CAT desk. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What is live this afternoon

SPC’s 2000 UTC update says the western Dakotas forecast remains largely on track. Isolated damaging wind gusts and severe hail are possible late this afternoon where moisture pooling has put upper-50s to low-60s °F dewpoints under clearing skies. Moderate deep-layer shear and modest buoyancy (500–1,000 J/kg MLCAPE; 30–40 kt 0–6 km shear) can support organized storms and transient supercells. A CIG 1 contour was added for isolated 2-inch hail with any stronger supercell. Population centers named in the Marginal contour: Dickinson, North Dakota; Belle Fourche, South Dakota; Sidney, Montana. Tornado probabilities remain zero. No watches as of the SPC watches page update at 21:00:23 UTC Wednesday, September 23, 2026. Most recent watch on the board: 0674.

Southern Appalachians: the 2000 UTC outlook removed the 5% wind probabilities. Widespread low stratus, modest buoyancy, and a mostly cluster/multicell mode keep the severe potential low even as lightning continues in eastern Tennessee along the inverted trough.

WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 0832 UTC Wednesday, September 23, 2026; Chenard; valid 12Z Wed–12Z Thu) still owns the national headline: Moderate Risk across portions of central and eastern New Mexico. Scattered to numerous flash floods expected; locally significant and life-threatening impacts remain possible on sensitive terrain, urban drainage, and burn scars. Widespread 1–2 inches generally expected, localized 2–4 inch swaths on top of pre-12Z rain. HREF/REFS neighborhood probabilities of more than 3 inches run 40–70% on the eastern half of the Moderate area. Slight Risk into southeast Arizona and a slice of far west Texas. Separate flood desks: Slight over portions of eastern Kentucky, eastern Tennessee, and far western North Carolina; Marginal from Ohio into West Virginia and western Virginia/North Carolina; Marginal over south Florida.

Live NWS flood products this morning into midday included a flash-flood warning from NWS Albuquerque for the South Fork burn scar in south-central Lincoln County (issued 9:08 a.m. MDT, through 12:15 p.m. MDT; 0.5–1.25 inches already down; Brady, Bear, Perk, Cedar Creek, Eagle Creek, and Rio Ruidoso drainages). Flood watches remain in effect through this evening / late tonight across much of central and eastern New Mexico and south-central New Mexico including the Tularosa Basin / Alamogordo / Doña Ana corridor (NWS Albuquerque and NWS El Paso/Santa Teresa).

Hotspot 1 — Central and eastern New Mexico / far west Texas

Still the organized desk. Mid-level shortwave lifting north-northeast across New Mexico, robust upper divergence, easterly upslope, and training cells in deep southerly flow. Cloud cover is the limiter; the eastern edge of the rain shield is where heating and CAPE can still fire the heavier cores. Burn scars and arroyos fail first. The South Fork burn scar warning this morning is the restoration ticket type: debris flow of rock, mud, and vegetation into reservoirs, bridges, culverts, and the Rio Ruidoso downstream of Ruidoso Downs.

Restoration read: water first. Stage pumps and air movers before the next training band. Start extraction the same night if water is inside. Do not drive flooded arroyos. Turn around, don’t drown.

Hotspot 2 — Western Dakotas / Black Hills

The only remaining SPC Marginal as of 2000 UTC. Lee trough and moisture plume from the High Plains; widely scattered storms near the Black Hills and the Dickinson–Belle Fourche–Sidney corridor late afternoon into early evening. Isolated damaging gusts and severe hail, with a conditional isolated 2-inch hail note if a transient supercell holds together. No tornado contour. No watch.

Restoration read: isolated wind and hail, not a regional outbreak. Stage only if you already work western North Dakota, western South Dakota, or far eastern Montana. Do not pull crews off the New Mexico water desk for this.

Hotspot 3 — Eastern Tennessee / southern Appalachians flood leftover + Tropical Storm Nolo (Hawaii County)

SPC took the Marginal off this corridor at 2000 UTC. The flood overlay is still live: WPC Slight over eastern Kentucky, eastern Tennessee, and far western North Carolina; WPC Marginal from Ohio into West Virginia and western Virginia/North Carolina. Wet soils from the last several days keep flash-flood guidance low even with reduced precipitable water. Lightning and modest CAPE along the inverted trough can still produce locally heavy cells. That is a water job, not a tarp outbreak.

Separately, Central Pacific Hurricane Center / NHC Advisory 13 at 11:00 a.m. HST Wednesday, September 23, 2026: Tropical Storm Nolo, 14.5°N 155.3°W, about 310 miles south of South Point, Hawaii, 40 mph sustained, moving west-northwest at 6 mph. A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Hawaii County. Forecast: approach the Big Island Friday and Saturday; possible hurricane Thursday and possible major hurricane by the weekend. Rainfall: 15–20 inches on the Big Island with maxima near 35 inches; 5–10 inches on Maui with maxima near 20 inches. Storm surge 1–3 feet possible in Hawaii County. This is a Hawaii land threat on Friday–Saturday, not a CONUS landfall today. Polo and Odalys remain eastern Pacific systems off Mexico / well west of Baja.

Restoration read: Appalachians = leftover plus second-chance street and creek water. Hawaii County = watch the NHC package Friday; do not invent a mainland hurricane from Nolo.

Just hit

SPC local storm reports for the current 23/1200 UTC–24/1159 UTC window, as of this afternoon check: no tornado, no hail, no wind reports received yet. Do not invent LSR points for today.

The prior 22/1200 UTC–23/1159 UTC window still holds the last 24-hour ticket pile: quarter-size hail near Sterlington, Louisiana; Suncrest, Utah; and south of Colorado Springs. Wind damage across Lauderdale, Cherokee, DeKalb, St. Clair, and Shelby counties in Alabama (trees, lines, a pole on a vehicle, roof and tree damage in Montevallo). Odessa, Texas, lines and outbuilding/carport damage. Measured 59 mph near Rawlins, Wyoming. Measured 68 and 74 mph southwest of Sundown in Cochran County, Texas. Overnight into this morning the flood desk already logged El Paso County, central Virginia (Amelia / Powhatan), and a receding western North Carolina pulse around Lake Lure / Bat Cave, plus today’s South Fork burn-scar warning in Lincoln County, New Mexico.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / WPC / NWS level	Status this afternoon
Central / eastern NM and far west TX	Flash flood, training storms, burn-scar runoff	WPC Moderate + NWS flood watches / FFW	Live flood desk through Thu 12Z
Western Dakotas / Black Hills	Isolated hail / damaging gusts; conditional 2″ hail	SPC Marginal	Late afternoon–early evening
Southeast AZ	Localized flash flood	WPC Slight	Today
Eastern KY / eastern TN / far western NC	Flash flood on wet soils	WPC Slight; SPC Marginal removed at 2000Z	Afternoon–evening water
OH into WV / western VA–NC	Localized flash flood	WPC Marginal	Today
South Florida	Urban flash flood	WPC Marginal	Local
Hawaii County	TS Nolo; hurricane conditions possible late Friday	NHC Hurricane Watch	Watch now; land threat Fri–Sat
U.S. mainland tropics	No CONUS landfalling named cyclone	NHC	Quiet for CONUS land

What this means for restoration teams

New Mexico remains the water job if the Moderate risk verifies — extraction, drying, and a 24–48 hour mold clock, plus debris-flow cleanup on burn scars. Far west Texas is the eastward leak of the same plume. The Dakotas Marginal is isolated hail and wind for shops that already cover Dickinson, the Black Hills, and Sidney. The Appalachians are leftover water, not a new severe overlay. Hawaii County is a Friday–Saturday NHC problem, not today’s CONUS roll. Stage the New Mexico pumps now. Start extraction the same night if water is inside. Turn around, don’t drown.

What this is not

This is not a regional derecho and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. There is no Slight or Enhanced convective risk on the 2000 UTC Day 1 map. There are no valid convective watches. Do not write Nolo as a Gulf or Atlantic landfall; it is a Central Pacific storm with a Hurricane Watch for Hawaii County and a forecast approach to the Big Island on Friday and Saturday. Hurricane Polo (eastern Pacific, off southwest Mexico) and Hurricane Odalys (well west of Baja) are not CONUS land threats today. Today’s CONUS work, if it verifies, is New Mexico flash flood plus isolated western Dakotas hail/wind.

Looking ahead

SPC Day 2 Convective Outlook for Thursday (issued 12:44 a.m. CDT Wednesday, September 23, 2026; Squitieri; valid 241200Z–251200Z) shows no severe thunderstorm areas. Showers and scattered storms can still run from the Interior West into the central Plains behind the same Southwest impulse, but shear and buoyancy do not overlap enough for probabilities. That does not cancel tonight’s New Mexico flood problem or this afternoon’s Dakotas Marginal. Watch the next Storm Tracker update rather than assuming the Moderate rainfall risk is the last line of the week. Nolo’s Hawaii County watch is the tropical item to re-check Thursday afternoon.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources dated Wednesday, September 23, 2026: SPC 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook (Halbert/Lyons, 2:58 p.m. CDT); SPC 1630 UTC discussion (Smith/Mead); SPC watches page updated 21:00:23 UTC (no watches; last issued 0674); SPC mesoscale discussions page (none in effect); SPC today’s LSRs (none received after 1200 UTC) and 22/1200Z–23/1159Z LSRs; WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook updated 0832 UTC (Chenard); NWS Albuquerque South Fork burn-scar flash-flood warning 9:08 a.m. MDT; NWS Albuquerque and El Paso/Santa Teresa flood watches; NHC/CPHC Tropical Storm Nolo Advisory 13, 11:00 a.m. HST; SPC Day 2 outlook (Squitieri).

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watch, and local storm reports, WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay, and nhc.noaa.gov for Nolo. Morning desk on the same calendar day: Storm Updates September 23, 2026 (Morning) — New Mexico Flood Moderate, Dakotas–Appalachians Marginal.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

September 23, 2026

Storm Updates: Appalachians–Southeast Marginal + Central Appalachians Flood Slight — Monday, September 21, 2026

This is a live Monday afternoon snapshot of U.S. local-storm activity as of Monday, September 21, 2026. The Storm Prediction Center 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook holds a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms from parts of the Southeast into the central Appalachians and over the Texas South Plains. No convective watches are currently valid. The Weather Prediction Center maintains a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over portions of the central Appalachians. Scattered severe thunderstorm warnings and flash-flood warnings remain active this afternoon across portions of the Tennessee Valley, Carolinas, Alabama, and West Virginia.

These are county- and ZIP-scale thunderstorms and localized heavy-rain pulses, not a mainland hurricane landfall or organized derecho. Restoration exposure this afternoon and evening is wind-driven tree and roof work, isolated hail, and interior water where cells train or flash-flood warnings verify. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What is live this afternoon

SPC’s Marginal Risk covers the Southeast into the southern and central Appalachians, with isolated damaging wind gusts of 50–60 mph the primary threat. A second Marginal area sits over the Texas South Plains where isolated large hail and severe gusts remain possible later today. Mesoscale Discussion 2323 (issued 1938 UTC) covers the Texas South Plains into the Permian Basin and notes watch issuance is unlikely; strongest storms may briefly produce large hail up to 1.25 inches and marginally severe wind.

WPC’s Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook keeps a Slight Risk over the central Appalachians (expanded earlier to include more of West Virginia and southwest Virginia). Guidance supports 1–3 inches with locally higher amounts where cells train near a backdoor cold front and shortwave energy. Flash Flood Warnings and Flood Warnings remain active or recently expired across portions of West Virginia, Ohio, and adjacent counties from overnight and early-morning convection.

Hotspot 1 — Central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic fringe (WPC Slight + SPC Marginal)

This is the dual-threat corridor. Scattered thunderstorms continue along and south of a cold front stretching from southern Virginia west-northwest into northern Kentucky and southwestward. Highest coverage expected from southeast Tennessee and northwest Georgia through northern Alabama into central/southern Mississippi and eastern Louisiana, with additional activity into southwest Virginia and West Virginia. Vertical shear is weak; storm mode is largely multicellular and outflow-dominant, but ample moisture (PW values over 2 inches) supports strong to locally severe gusts and flash flooding on saturated soils.

Cities and counties to watch: Charleston, Parkersburg, and surrounding West Virginia counties; southwest Virginia counties including Giles, Mercer, and Summers; portions of eastern Kentucky and southern Ohio; Chattanooga and Knoxville metro fringes in Tennessee; northern Alabama counties including Madison and Marshall.

Restoration read: wind and water both in play. Stage tarps, generators, and tree crews. Flash-flood warnings mean extraction and drying work may already be on the books by evening. Photograph roofs in remaining daylight only if it is safe.

Hotspot 2 — Texas South Plains and northeast Texas

Isolated to widely scattered storms continue near the intersection of a weak surface trough and cold front across the Texas South Plains into the Permian Basin. MD 2323 flags the potential for brief severe storms capable of large hail and marginally severe wind before dissipation this evening. A secondary area of higher thunderstorm coverage is expected over northeast Texas this afternoon and evening, where water-loaded downbursts capable of damaging wind gusts are possible.

Cities and counties to watch: Lubbock, Midland, and surrounding South Plains counties; portions of northeast Texas near the Red River. Local Severe Thunderstorm Warnings have already fired this afternoon in the region.

Restoration read: hail and wind first. Check vehicle and roof damage reports quickly; these are short-lived cells but can produce ticket-scale damage in a single ZIP.

Hotspot 3 — Southeast scatter (Carolinas, Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi)

Ongoing multicell storms continue to produce local Severe Thunderstorm Warnings with 60 mph wind and small to quarter-size hail. Coverage is highest from southeast Tennessee and northwest Georgia through northern Alabama into central/southern Mississippi and eastern Louisiana. Storms are moving relatively slowly or nearly stationary in places, increasing the local flash-flood and wind-damage potential.

Cities and counties to watch: Chattanooga, Huntsville, Birmingham metro areas; portions of the Carolinas and northern Georgia where warnings have been active this afternoon.

Restoration read: scattered wind and tree damage plus isolated water jobs. Treat each warning county as its own ticket rather than a regional event.

Just hit

Overnight and early-morning convection produced Flash Flood Warnings across portions of West Virginia and southeast Ohio, with residual river and stream rises still ongoing in some gauges. Yesterday’s High Plains activity (eastern Colorado into western Kansas) produced large hail reports up to baseball size and is already in the ticket pipeline for those counties. Local wind damage reports from trees and power lines continue to filter in from the Ohio Valley, Illinois, Missouri, Georgia, Alabama, and the Carolinas. No new U.S. mainland tropical cyclone threat is in the National Hurricane Center outlook at this hour.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS level	Status this afternoon
Central Appalachians / WV–SW VA	Flash flood, damaging wind, trees	WPC Slight + SPC Marginal	Live warnings + overnight residual
Southeast / TN–AL–GA–MS–Carolinas	Damaging wind, isolated hail, lightning	SPC Marginal + local SVR	Scattered warnings active
Texas South Plains / NE TX	Large hail, severe gusts	SPC Marginal + MD 2323	Isolated cells, watch unlikely
Ohio Valley residual	Flooding from earlier rain	Local Flood Warnings	Aftermath / still in channel
Atlantic / Gulf vs. U.S. mainland	No landfalling tropical cyclone	Quiet on the mainland coast	Quiet

What this means for restoration teams

Wind at 50–60 mph is roof, siding, gutter, and tree-on-structure work. Hail on the South Plains is vehicle and roof impact. Heavy rain on the central Appalachians Slight Risk is wet drywall and a 24–48 hour mold clock where flash flooding verifies. Overnight West Virginia and Ohio water is already inside some buildings.

For teams near active warnings: stage before the next cell arrives, not after the first report. Property owners should photograph damage in daylight if it is safe, call the carrier, and start extraction the same night if water is inside.

What this is not

This is not a regional derecho and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. The work this afternoon and evening, if it verifies, will be scattered: a wind swath through a Tennessee or West Virginia county, a flooded intersection where Appalachian cells train, isolated hail on the South Plains. That is the local-storm pattern this desk should staff.

Looking ahead

Tuesday the front continues to push south and east with another Marginal Risk possible over portions of the Southeast. Residual flooding in the central Appalachians may linger into Tuesday morning. Watch the next Storm Tracker update rather than assuming today’s Marginal and Slight Risk areas are the last line of the week.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Convective Outlook (2000 UTC, September 21, 2026) and Mesoscale Discussion 2323; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook; National Weather Service warning text for Charleston WV, Blacksburg VA, Huntsville AL, Morristown TN, Lubbock TX, and neighboring offices; SPC Local Storm Reports.

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watches, MDs, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay. Related desk: Monday morning Storm Updates.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

September 21, 2026

Storm Updates: Kansas–Oklahoma Watch 670 + Midwest–Montana Flood Moderate — Saturday, September 19, 2026

This is a live Saturday afternoon snapshot of U.S. local-storm activity as of Saturday, September 19, 2026. The organized pulse is on the Central Plains cold front. The Storm Prediction Center 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook holds a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of the central Plains and central High Plains, covering about 56,800 square miles and nearly 2 million people in the Slight contour, with Wichita, Topeka, Lawrence, St. Joseph, and Salina inside the risk area. Severe Thunderstorm Watch 670 is in effect from 3:20 p.m. until 11:00 p.m. CDT for central into northeast Kansas, western into north-central Oklahoma, and the eastern Texas Panhandle.

These are county-scale thunderstorms and training rain, not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. Restoration exposure this afternoon and tonight is wind-driven roof and siding work, hail dents on the High Plains, trees on wires in the Southeast leftover cells, and interior water where WPC Moderate flood-risk storms stall over eastern Iowa, northern Illinois, northern Indiana, and southern Montana. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What is live this afternoon

Watch 670, issued 3:20 p.m. CDT Saturday, September 19, 2026, is the live convective watch. Primary threat language is scattered damaging winds with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible, plus isolated large hail to 1.5 inches. The watch box is drawn roughly along and 65 miles either side of a line from 115 miles west-southwest of Alva, Oklahoma, to 35 miles east-southeast of Manhattan, Kansas. SPC Mesoscale Discussion 2309, issued 2:34 p.m. CDT, had already flagged northwest Oklahoma into central and northeast Kansas for watch consideration; that discussion is now overtaken by the watch itself.

The 2000 UTC outlook summary is unchanged from mid-morning: thunderstorms with scattered severe wind gusts and large hail are possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the central Plains. A Marginal Risk still wraps Indianapolis, Columbus, Denver, Kansas City, and Atlanta. Ohio Valley convection has struggled to stay organized along a surging outflow boundary from north of Columbus into southern Illinois and Indiana; SPC trimmed the northern edge of the Marginal there after temperatures behind the outflow fell into the upper 70s.

The Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, updated 1602 UTC Saturday, September 19, 2026, holds a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall in portions of the Midwest — particularly eastern Iowa, northern Illinois, and northern Indiana — and a second Moderate Risk over portions of southern Montana. Guidance cited by WPC includes moderate-to-high probabilities of totals exceeding 5 inches in the better Midwest cores, with some low-end probabilities of 8 inches. Day 2 outlook language eases that to a Slight Risk over parts of the Midwest and Ohio Valley on Sunday.

Hotspot 1 — Central into northeast Kansas, western into north-central Oklahoma, eastern Texas Panhandle

This is the live watch. A cold front is dropping south from southwest Iowa through southwest Kansas and the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles. Ahead of it the airmass is seasonably moist and, by mid-afternoon, moderately unstable. SPC expects a few short-lived supercells early, then high-based storms and line segments capable of 60 to 75 mph gusts. MD 2309 noted temperatures near 100 F from Texas into southern Kansas, dewpoints near 60 F in the eastern Texas Panhandle and mid-60s toward Wichita, and most-probable peak gusts of 65–80 mph with hail of 1.00–1.75 inches.

Cities and counties to watch: Wichita, Topeka, Lawrence, Salina, Manhattan, and St. Joseph on the Missouri side of the Slight contour; Alva and northwest Oklahoma; the eastern Texas Panhandle. A 67 mph gust was already measured 3 miles south-southwest of Freedom in Woodward County, Oklahoma, at 2040 UTC.

Restoration read: wind first, hail second. Stage tarps, generators, and tree crews before dark across the watch. Photograph roofs in remaining daylight only if it is safe. Treat any ZIP that also sits under training rain as a water job by morning.

Hotspot 2 — Eastern Iowa, northern Illinois, northern Indiana flood Moderate

This is the water desk, not the watch. WPC’s 16Z update kept a Moderate Risk of 1-to-6-hour rainfall exceeding flash-flood guidance over eastern Iowa, northern Illinois, and northern Indiana. A surface low over the middle Mississippi Valley and enhanced forcing ahead of it support intense cores and high instantaneous rates. Urban streets, low-water crossings, and small streams fail first. Sunday’s Day 2 ERO drops this corridor to Slight, so tonight into Sunday morning is the higher-end window.

Restoration read: extraction and drying, not hail claims. If a cell trains over the same ZIP for more than an hour, treat it as an occupied-structure water job. Do not send the same crew to the Kansas watch and a Quad Cities flood call without checking which county actually has a warning now.

Hotspot 3 — Central High Plains and southern Montana

SPC holds the Slight Risk west into the central High Plains. Low-level easterly flow is holding upper-50s to low-60s dewpoints. A shortwave moving out of the Great Basin is expected to organize a loosely cellular band into a linear cluster, with hail early and wind later, and some indication the activity continues into western Kansas overnight. Preliminary LSRs already include 1.25-inch hail 5 miles north of Matheson in Elbert County, Colorado, at 2044 UTC, and measured gusts of 59 and 66 mph near Byers in Arapahoe County around 2003–2006 UTC.

Separately, WPC expanded the inherited Moderate excessive-rainfall risk over southern and southeast Montana, matching HREF/RRFS probabilities of rainfall exceeding 3 inches and low-end probabilities over 5 inches. That is a High Plains flood and debris-flow desk in burn scars and small drainages, not the Kansas watch.

Restoration read: Colorado and western Kansas are wind-and-hail tickets tonight. Southern Montana is water and mud. Do not conflate the two.

Just hit

SPC today’s storm reports (1200 UTC September 19 through the afternoon) show no tornadoes as of this desk. Hail: quarter-size near Rome in Floyd County, Georgia, at 1935 UTC; 1.25-inch north of Matheson, Colorado. Wind: trees and power lines down at Signal Mountain and South Pittsburg, Tennessee; trees and blocked roads in Etowah and Jackson Counties, Alabama; multiple trees down near Warm Springs and Highland Park, Georgia; 59–66 mph near Byers, Colorado; 67 mph near Freedom, Oklahoma. Those tree and wire reports are already tickets.

A morning Storm Tracker for this calendar day is already on the site: Storm Updates: Kansas Slight Risk + Midwest–Montana Flood Moderate — Saturday, September 19, 2026 (Morning). This afternoon post is the watch-and-LSR update, not a reprint of Friday.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS level	Status this afternoon
Central / NE Kansas, W / NC Oklahoma, E Texas Panhandle	Damaging wind 60–75 mph, isolated 1.5-inch hail	Slight + Watch 670 to 11 p.m. CDT	Live watch
Eastern Iowa / northern Illinois / northern Indiana	Flash flood, training heavy rain	WPC Moderate excessive rainfall	Tonight into Sunday morning
Southern / southeast Montana	Flash flood, 3–5 inch cores	WPC Moderate excessive rainfall	Today into tonight
Central High Plains / NE Colorado	Wind, marginally severe hail	Slight / Marginal	Live LSRs near Byers and Matheson
Ohio Valley (IN / OH / IL outflow)	Isolated damaging gusts	Marginal, trimmed on north edge	Poorly organized
Southern Appalachians / Southeast	Trees, 50–60 mph wet microbursts	Marginal / local SVR	Just-hit trees in TN, AL, GA
Atlantic vs. U.S. mainland	TD Six near the Azores; no U.S. land threat	No mainland tropical watch	Quiet on the coast

What this means for restoration teams

Wind at 60–75 mph inside Watch 670 is roof, siding, gutter, and tree-on-structure work from Wichita through Topeka and across northwest Oklahoma. Hail to 1.5 inches is a vehicle and roof-dent ticket, not a regional catastrophe. Midwest Moderate flood risk is wet drywall and a 24–48 hour mold clock if occupied structures take water. Southern Montana is the same water problem on different terrain.

For teams in or near Watch 670: stage before 5 p.m. CDT, not after the first warning. Property owners should photograph damage in daylight if it is safe, call the carrier, and start extraction the same night if water is inside. Southeast tree jobs from this afternoon’s Alabama, Georgia, and Tennessee cells are already on the board.

What this is not

This is not a regional derecho and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. Tropical Depression Six is several hundred miles southwest of the Azores with 35 mph winds and no coastal watches for the United States. The work tonight, if it verifies, will be scattered: a wind swath through a Kansas or Oklahoma county, a flooded intersection where Iowa or Illinois cells train, isolated hail on the High Plains, leftover trees in the Tennessee Valley. That is the local-storm pattern this desk should staff.

Looking ahead

Sunday’s SPC Day 2 outlook remains a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the central High Plains and southern Plains. WPC Day 2 excessive rainfall eases the Midwest corridor to Slight. Day 3 convective risk is Marginal. Later in the week WPC language flags a wetter pattern for the Southern High Plains and Rockies, and a frontal system toward the East midweek. Watch the next Storm Tracker rather than assuming Watch 670 is the last line of the weekend.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources dated Saturday, September 19, 2026: NOAA Storm Prediction Center 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook; Severe Thunderstorm Watch 670; Mesoscale Discussion 2309; SPC today’s local storm reports; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook updated 1602 UTC; National Hurricane Center advisories on Tropical Depression Six (Azores, no U.S. land threat). Morning desk on this calendar day: September 19 morning Storm Updates.

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watch, and LSRs, Watch 670 text, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

September 19, 2026