Tag: South Carolina

Storm Updates: Isaias Remnants & Rachel — Oct 10 Morning

Tropical: Post-tropical Isaias · TS Watch Rachel · Severe: Slight · Flood: Moderate

What Changed

Isaias is now a post-tropical cyclone near 32.8N 86.8W as of the 10:00 AM CDT NHC final advisory, about 50 miles south of Birmingham, Alabama, moving NNW at 10 mph with maximum sustained winds of 35 mph. All tropical warnings discontinued; WPC continues flood tracking.
SPC Day 1 Slight Risk has shifted eastward from the Panhandle/Big Bend to eastern Georgia into western and southern South Carolina for a tornado threat this afternoon into evening. No convective watches currently in effect.
WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook holds a Moderate Risk for the Southern Appalachians (northeast Georgia into western North Carolina and Upstate South Carolina) and portions of Southern California, down from yesterday’s High near the landfall corridor.
Tropical Storm Rachel is approaching with a Tropical Storm Watch for the Southern California coast from the U.S./Mexico border to the San Diego/Orange County line. Center near 25.5N 119.6W as of 8:00 AM PDT, 520 miles SSW of San Diego, moving NE at 22 mph with 60 mph winds.
Overnight and morning Flash Flood Warnings were active in parts of coastal South Carolina and north-central Georgia. No new NHC hurricane or storm-surge warnings for U.S. land.

Live Status

As of Saturday morning, October 10, 2026, Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias continues north-northwest across central Alabama. The primary organized threats have shifted to residual heavy rainfall and isolated tornadoes on the eastern side of the circulation, plus the approaching Tropical Storm Rachel on the West Coast. SPC’s 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook maintains a Slight Risk from eastern Georgia into southern and eastern South Carolina. A couple of tornadoes are possible today over that corridor. WPC’s Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 0748 UTC) holds Moderate Risk across the Southern Appalachians and over portions of Southern California. No tropical storm or hurricane warnings remain for the U.S. Gulf or Atlantic coast.

Hotspot 1 — Eastern Georgia into Western/Southern South Carolina

SPC Slight Risk covers roughly 34,500 square miles and about 3.5 million people, including Savannah, Columbia, Charleston, North Charleston, and Mount Pleasant. Midday analysis places the remnant circulation over central Alabama with a warm front extending eastward to the South Carolina coast. Destabilization in the warm sector supports scattered storms this afternoon. Enlarged hodographs support storm-scale rotation. A couple of tornadoes are possible primarily during the diurnal heating cycle. A Marginal Risk continues tonight as the warm front advances northward, though uncertainty is high.

Restoration read: tornado swaths remain narrow. Staff as local surveys. Damaging wind gusts are possible with stronger cells. The broader water ticket is the continuing rain bands.

Hotspot 2 — Southern Appalachians

WPC Moderate Risk targets upslope regions from northeast Georgia into the Upstate of South Carolina and western North Carolina. Strong upslope flow with residual Isaias moisture supports heavy precip totals in the 3–5 inch range, with maximum totals of 6–10 inches possible across far western North Carolina into the Upstate of South Carolina. HREF and RRFS show high probabilities for 2-, 3-, and 5-inch amounts. Coastal Carolinas retain potential for isolated 5+ inch totals from coastal convergence. Flash flooding, landslides, and river rises are the primary concerns.

Restoration read: this is the main freshwater flood desk today. Wet drywall, extraction, and structural issues from saturated soils. Prioritize high-terrain and poor-drainage areas. Turn around, don’t drown.

Hotspot 3 — Southern California and Rachel

Tropical Storm Rachel is moving northeast at 22 mph toward northern Baja California and the Southern California border. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the Southern California coast from the U.S./Mexico border northward to the San Diego/Orange County line. WPC Moderate Risk covers portions of Southern California as anomalous moisture is drawn northeast. 1–3 inches, locally higher, are forecast, increasing flash and urban flood potential tonight into Sunday. SPC maintains a Marginal Risk for a few severe wind gusts and low-end tornado potential in the Lower Colorado River Valley into south-central Arizona as the system interacts with shear and moisture. Life-threatening surf and rip currents continue.

Restoration read: urban flooding and wind damage over higher terrain are the tickets. Coastal impacts are primarily surf and minor flooding rather than surge. No widespread structural wind damage expected from tropical-storm-force winds.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS / WPC level	Status this morning
Central Alabama / Isaias center	Residual heavy rain, gusty wind	Post-tropical 35 mph; NHC final advisory	Inland NNW at 10 mph
Eastern GA / western & southern SC	Brief tornadoes, damaging wind	SPC Slight	Active this afternoon into evening
Southern Appalachians (NE GA / W NC / Upstate SC)	Flash flood, 3–10 in possible	WPC Moderate ERO	Upslope heavy rain ongoing
Southern California coast / SW	Heavy rain, TS winds possible, surf	TS Watch; WPC Moderate ERO	Rachel approaching tonight
Desert Southwest / AZ	Severe wind gusts, isolated tornado	SPC Marginal	Increasing with Rachel interaction

What this means for restoration teams

Primary exposure is flash flooding and landslides in the Southern Appalachians from residual Isaias moisture, plus isolated tornado and wind damage in the eastern Georgia / South Carolina Slight Risk zone. In Southern California and the Desert Southwest, Rachel drives urban and flash flooding, strong winds over higher terrain, and coastal surf impacts tonight into Sunday. No widespread hurricane-force wind or storm-surge damage is expected on U.S. land from current systems. Claims will be water-dominant with localized wind/tornado tickets. Stage extraction crews for the Appalachians and monitor San Diego for tonight’s rain onset.

Rising queries

huracán isaias
post-tropical cyclone isaias
tropical storm rachel
Isaias flood Appalachians
Rachel San Diego

Storm Hubs

Isaias 2026: Hurricane Isaias 2026

Rachel 2026: Tropical Storm Rachel 2026

Sources

SPC Day 1 Outlook 1630 UTC 10 October 2026. WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (0748 UTC / 426 AM EDT). NHC Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias final advisory (10:00 AM CDT). NHC Tropical Storm Rachel Advisory 54 (8:00 AM PDT). NWS WWA summary. Previous desk: Storm Updates: Isaias Landfall Destin — Oct 9.

Informational only — not an official warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

October 10, 2026

Storm Updates: Isaias Remnants & Rachel — Oct 10

Tropical: Post-Tropical Isaias · Post-Tropical Rachel (TS Watch) · Severe: Marginal · Flood: Moderate

What changed

Tornado Watch 679 expired at 8:00 p.m. EDT. SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook (0100 UTC / 7:57 p.m. CDT) dropped to Marginal Risk for isolated tornado threat this evening across the Carolinas and a few severe wind gusts in the Desert Southwest. No convective watches remain valid.
Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias as of WPC/NHC Public Advisory 18 at 10:00 p.m. CDT Saturday, October 10, 2026, is near 35.0N 86.7W, moving northeast at 16 mph with maximum sustained winds of 25 mph and minimum pressure 1009 mb. Position advanced well north of the Birmingham area reported earlier; flood threat continues into the Tennessee Valley and Southern Appalachians.
Post-Tropical Cyclone Rachel as of NHC Advisory 56 at 8:00 p.m. PDT is near 30.0N 116.5W, about 40 miles west of Punta Baja, Mexico, and 190 miles south of San Diego, moving north-northeast at 36 mph with maximum sustained winds of 60 mph and pressure 987 mb. Now classified post-tropical; Tropical Storm Watch continues for the Southern California coast from the U.S./Mexico border to the San Diego/Orange County line. Expected to move onshore over northern Baja tonight.
WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 2331 UTC) maintains Moderate Risk across the Southern Appalachians (northeast Georgia into Upstate South Carolina and western North Carolina) and portions of Southern California. Upslope totals of 3–5+ inches with local 6–10 inches still possible; southern California rain increasing with Rachel moisture.
Active Flash Flood Warnings are in effect for portions of western North Carolina (including Lake Lure / Chimney Rock area in Buncombe, Henderson, Rutherford counties) and central South Carolina (Aiken, Edgefield, Lexington, Saluda). Severe Thunderstorm Warnings for 60 mph wind gusts are active in southern Arizona (Pima, Pinal, Yuma counties) associated with Rachel moisture.

Live status

As of Saturday evening, October 10, 2026 (around 8:00 p.m. PDT / 11:00 p.m. EDT), Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias continues northeast across central Tennessee toward the Tennessee Valley while weakening. The primary organized threat has shifted to residual heavy rainfall and flash flooding, especially upslope into the Southern Appalachians. SPC notes scattered convection with an isolated tornado threat this evening across parts of the Carolinas along the eastern flank, supported by strong low-level shear, though the Slight Risk and Tornado Watch have expired. WPC Moderate excessive rainfall covers the Southern Appalachians and portions of Southern California.

Post-Tropical Cyclone Rachel is accelerating north-northeast toward northern Baja California and is forecast to move onshore tonight before dissipating early Sunday. Tropical Storm Watch remains for extreme Southern California coastal areas. Moisture from Rachel is driving increasing rainfall and thunderstorms across the Desert Southwest, with Moderate flash flood risk on far southern California and isolated severe wind gusts possible in southern Arizona.

Hotspots

Southern Appalachians (northeast Georgia, Upstate South Carolina, western North Carolina): Primary flood hotspot under the WPC Moderate Risk. Strong upslope flow continues to support heavy precip totals of 3–5+ inches, with maximums of 6–10 inches possible across far western North Carolina into the Upstate of South Carolina. Flash Flood Warnings are active near Lake Lure and Chimney Rock; additional minor flooding and isolated landslides remain possible overnight. Flood Watches cover much of the region.

Carolinas (eastern Georgia residual into South Carolina and southern North Carolina): SPC Marginal Risk for isolated tornado threat this evening with rotating cells in the moist airmass east of the Isaias remnants. Strong low-level shear supports brief tornadoes with semi-discrete cells, mainly across the eastern half of South Carolina into southern North Carolina. Flash Flood Warnings continue in central South Carolina. Threat diminishes overnight as the system moves northeast.

Southern California coast and Desert Southwest: Tropical Storm Watch remains on the San Diego County coastal areas. WPC Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall covers portions of Southern California as Rachel moisture is drawn northeastward; probabilities of 2+ inches highest in far southern California overnight. Burn scars, dry washes, and urban areas most at risk. Severe Thunderstorm Warnings for 60 mph wind gusts are active in southern Arizona. Rachel expected onshore tonight.

Just-hit

Isaias made landfall near Destin, Florida, Friday evening as a Category 2 hurricane with 105 mph winds before rapidly transitioning to post-tropical and weakening across the Florida Panhandle into Alabama and now Tennessee. Residual flash flooding and wind damage occurred Friday night into Saturday. Tornado Watch 679 produced confirmed tornadoes in Screven County, Georgia, and Allendale County, South Carolina, before expiring. Rachel remains offshore with no U.S. landfall yet; the center is expected to approach the Baja/border region tonight. Active Flash Flood Warnings and Severe Thunderstorm Warnings are ongoing.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS / WPC level	Status this evening
Southern Appalachians (NE GA / Upstate SC / W NC)	Flash flood, landslides, 3–10 in upslope	WPC Moderate excessive rainfall; active FFWs	Live, ongoing overnight
Carolinas (E SC / S NC)	Isolated tornadoes, residual heavy rain	SPC Marginal (tornado)	Evening threat, diminishing overnight
Southern California coast / Desert Southwest	Heavy rain, flash flood, TS winds possible, severe wind gusts	WPC Moderate; TS Watch (San Diego coastal); active SVR in AZ	Rachel approaching; increasing tonight
Central TN / Isaias center	Residual heavy rain, gusty wind	Post-tropical 25 mph	Inland NE at 16 mph, weakening
Rest of CONUS	No other organized severe	Marginal only in noted areas; no watches	Quiet elsewhere

Restoration read

Primary restoration exposure is flash flooding and potential landslides in the Southern Appalachians from residual Isaias moisture under the Moderate Risk, plus localized tornado and wind damage tickets from earlier in the Georgia–South Carolina zone. In Southern California and the Desert Southwest, Rachel will drive urban and flash flooding, strong winds, and coastal surf impacts overnight into Sunday. No widespread hurricane-force wind or storm-surge damage expected on U.S. land from current systems. Claims will be water-dominant with localized wind/tornado tickets. Sequence water extraction after the heaviest rates pass; do not stage in active flood or warning zones.

What this is not

This is not an active landfalling hurricane or tropical-storm warning on the U.S. Gulf or Atlantic coast. Isaias is post-tropical and inland; all tropical warnings have been discontinued. Rachel is post-tropical with a Tropical Storm Watch for extreme Southern California, not a hurricane or storm-surge warning. Severe risk is Marginal, not Slight or higher, and no convective watches are valid. The organized hazards are the WPC Moderate excessive-rainfall risks in the Southern Appalachians and Southern California, residual isolated tornado threat in the Carolinas, and severe wind gusts in southern Arizona.

Looking ahead one day

Sunday (Day 2): SPC holds a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over portions of the Mid-Atlantic (North Carolina, Virginia, southeast Maryland) for a few tornadoes and damaging wind gusts as the Isaias remnants continue northeast. Heavy rain and flash flood potential persist in the Appalachians. Rachel is expected to move inland over northern Baja and the southwestern United States tonight, bringing continued heavy rain, flash flooding, and strong winds to the Southwest and Great Basin before dissipating early Sunday. Isaias remnants are forecast to continue weakening.

Rising queries

huracán isaias
isaias remnants flood
tropical storm Rachel San Diego
post-tropical Rachel
Southern Appalachians flash flood

Storm hubs

Isaias 2026 hub: Hurricane Isaias 2026

Rachel 2026 hub: Tropical Storm Rachel 2026

Sources

SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook 0100 UTC 11 October 2026 (Marginal Risk Carolinas and Desert Southwest). WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook and Discussion (2331 UTC, Moderate Risk Southern Appalachians and Southern California). NHC/WPC Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias Advisory 18 (10:00 p.m. CDT). NHC Post-Tropical Cyclone Rachel Advisory 56 (8:00 p.m. PDT). Active NWS Flash Flood Warnings (Greenville-Spartanburg, Columbia) and Severe Thunderstorm Warnings (Tucson, Phoenix). Morning desk: Storm Updates: Isaias Remnants & Rachel — Oct 10 Morning.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

October 10, 2026

Storm Updates: New Mexico Flood Moderate, Utah–Southeast Marginal — Tuesday, September 22, 2026 (Morning)

This is a live Tuesday morning snapshot of local storm-type events across the United States as of the morning of Tuesday, September 22, 2026. Overnight, the Appalachians–Southeast corridor carried the pulse — NWS Charleston, West Virginia flash-flood warnings for southern and north-central West Virginia into southwest Virginia. Those overnight warnings are treated as expired/expiring into this morning (no active WV flash-flood warnings on the NWS alert feed at hang time). Today’s desks: Storm Prediction Center Marginal Risk for much of Utah into adjacent Wyoming and Colorado, plus a portion of the Southeast; Weather Prediction Center Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall across portions of southern New Mexico. No convective watches are currently valid.

These are county- and ZIP-scale thunderstorms and flood pulses, not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. There is no U.S. landfalling tropical cyclone in the current National Hurricane Center picture. Restoration exposure today into tonight is water first in southern New Mexico and far west Texas, wind and marginally severe hail this afternoon across the Utah corridor, leftover Appalachian water from Monday night, and locally severe gusts plus flood axes across parts of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What is live this morning

SPC’s 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook (issued 7:22 a.m. CDT Tuesday, September 22, 2026; Smith/Mead; valid 221300Z–231200Z) places a Marginal Risk over much of Utah into adjacent Wyoming and Colorado, and across a portion of the Southeast. Summary: isolated severe wind gusts today in Utah into southwest Wyoming and western Colorado; thunderstorms capable of strong to locally severe damaging gusts also possible across parts of the Southeast. Outlook footprint ~196,000 square miles / ~24 million people. Larger Southeast centers in the risk area include Charlotte, Atlanta, Greensboro, Birmingham, and Montgomery.

No convective watches were currently valid as of the SPC watches page update at 11:44:05 UTC Tuesday, September 22, 2026. Most recent watch on the board: 0674. Check spc.noaa.gov/products/watch before you stage.

WPC’s Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 0809 UTC Tuesday, September 22, 2026; Chenard; valid 12Z Tue–12Z Wed) holds a Moderate Risk across portions of southern New Mexico, with flood watches from noon MDT today through Wednesday afternoon/evening for large parts of New Mexico and far west Texas (NWS Albuquerque and El Paso/Santa Teresa). WPC Slight axes: southeast Virginia into South Carolina, and West Virginia into southwest Virginia. South Florida: WPC Marginal for localized urban flash flood.

Hotspot 1 — Southern New Mexico / far west Texas

Today’s Moderate flood desk. Multi-day heavy rain starts today under an upper trough, jet right-entrance dynamics, deep southerly tropical moisture, and precipitable water toward mid/late September record levels. Daytime favors scattered storms; overnight trends toward a more concentrated rain shield with heavier cores over southern New Mexico. Ensemble neighborhood guidance: 40–70% chance of more than 3 inches across New Mexico today; 2–4 inch max footprint through early Wednesday. Scattered to numerous flash floods expected, some locally significant, including Sacramento Mountains burn scars.

Restoration read: water first. Stage pumps and air movers before the overnight shield organizes. Burn-scar runoff and low water crossings fail first. Start extraction the same night if water is inside.

Hotspot 2 — Utah into southwest Wyoming and western Colorado

SPC Marginal wind-and-hail corridor. Mid-level trough over the western Great Basin moves northeast across Utah through early evening. After early showers, heating steepens 0–2 km lapse rates; elongated hodographs support a few stronger cells with marginally severe hail. Isolated 60–75 mph gusts are the primary hazard. Activity can later spill into western Colorado and southwest Wyoming late afternoon into early evening.

Restoration read: wind and isolated hail. Stage tarps, generators, and tree crews before late afternoon. Soft-metal roofs and skylights after stronger cells only if it is safe.

Hotspot 3 — Southeast / southern Appalachians, plus Mid-Atlantic flood axes

SPC Marginal for the Southeast focuses on a slow-moving cold front from the Deep South into the southern Appalachians. Dewpoints upper 60s–lower 70s °F; afternoon MLCAPE about 1,500–2,500 J/kg. Weak shear; water-loaded downdrafts can produce locally severe gusts into early evening.

WPC Slight flood axes: southeast Virginia into South Carolina (coastal convergence + backdoor front; neighborhood high for 3 inches, localized 5 inches possible) and West Virginia into southwest Virginia (wetter soils, lower flash-flood guidance, inverted trough). Farther north Mid-Atlantic: more stratiform 1–2 inches. South Florida WPC Marginal is a local urban-flood desk, not the national headline.

Restoration read: gusty wind and street flooding can share the same ZIP. Charlotte, Atlanta, Greensboro, Birmingham, and Montgomery sit inside the broader Southeast convective risk — local pulse desks, not a regional derecho.

Just hit

Monday afternoon into overnight, the Appalachians–Southeast carried the live severe and flash-flood pulse (already on yesterday’s afternoon Tygart Media desk). Overnight NWS Charleston, West Virginia flash-flood warnings covered southern West Virginia / southwest Virginia (Welch, Pineville, Davy, McDowell, Wyoming, Buchanan; 1–3 inches radar-indicated) and north-central West Virginia along Buckhannon–Burnsville–Century / I-79 (1–3 inches). Those overnight warnings are treated as expired or expiring into this morning. No clean parsed SPC LSR list in this pass — do not invent points.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / WPC / NWS level	Status this morning
Southern NM / far west TX	Flash flood, multi-day heavy rain, burn-scar runoff	WPC Moderate + flood watches	Live flood desk today–Wed
Utah into SW WY / western CO	Severe wind gusts, marginally severe hail	SPC Marginal	Afternoon–early evening
Southeast / southern Appalachians	Locally severe damaging gusts	SPC Marginal	Afternoon–early evening
SE VA into SC; WV into SW VA	Flash flood / heavy rain	WPC Slight	Today into tonight
South Florida	Urban flash flood, lightning	WPC Marginal	Local
Appalachians–Southeast overnight	Flash flood (yesterday’s pulse)	Overnight FFWs (expired/expiring)	Aftermath / drying
U.S. mainland tropics	No landfalling tropical cyclone	NHC quiet for mainland	Quiet

What this means for restoration teams

Southern New Mexico and far west Texas are water jobs if the Moderate risk verifies — extraction, drying, and a 24–48 hour mold clock. Utah’s Marginal corridor is wind and isolated hail. Southeast Marginal wind is local gusty warnings, not a derecho. Leftover Appalachian water from Monday night is aftermath. Stage before the overnight New Mexico rain shield; start extraction the same night if water is inside. Turn around, don’t drown.

What this is not

This is not a regional derecho and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. Tropical Depression Fay is mid-Atlantic open ocean and becoming post-tropical — not a U.S. land threat. Hurricane Polo and Tropical Storm Odalys remain eastern Pacific systems and are not mainland landfall threats today. Today’s work, if it verifies, is scattered: southern New Mexico flash flood, Utah–Colorado wind/hail, Southeast gusts, leftover Appalachian water.

Looking ahead

SPC Day 2 and Day 3 currently show no severe thunderstorm areas. That does not cancel tonight’s New Mexico flood problem or this afternoon’s Marginal corridors. Watch the next Storm Tracker update rather than assuming the Moderate rainfall risk is the last line of the week.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources: SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook issued 7:22 a.m. CDT Tuesday, September 22, 2026 (Smith/Mead); SPC watches page updated 11:44:05 UTC Tuesday, September 22, 2026; WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook updated 0809 UTC Tuesday, September 22, 2026 (Chenard); NWS Albuquerque and El Paso/Santa Teresa flood watches; overnight NWS Charleston, West Virginia flash-flood warnings; NHC advisories (Fay, Polo, Odalys).

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watch, and local storm reports, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay. Prior desk: Storm Updates September 21, 2026 — Appalachians–Southeast Marginal / Central Appalachians Flood Slight.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

September 22, 2026

Storm Updates: Appalachians–Southeast Marginal, Texas South Plains Hail Pulse — Monday, September 21, 2026 (Morning)

This is a live Monday morning snapshot of U.S. local-storm activity as of early Monday, September 21, 2026. The Storm Prediction Center 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook holds a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms from parts of the Southeast into the central Appalachians, and a second Marginal Risk over the Texas South Plains. Isolated damaging wind gusts of 50 to 60 mph are the main threat along the front this afternoon. Isolated large hail and severe gusts are possible later today on the Caprock. No convective watches are currently valid. Severe Thunderstorm Watch 674, last night’s eastern Colorado and extreme western Kansas box, has expired.

These are county-scale thunderstorms, not a U.S. mainland tropical landfall. Tropical Storm Fay is several hundred miles southwest of the Azores and is not a U.S. land threat. Restoration exposure today is leftover tree and roof work from last night’s Ohio Valley and High Plains cells, plus a new wind-damage pulse if the front fires this afternoon from Kentucky into West Virginia and Virginia. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

Overnight into this morning

Radar this morning shows a parade of three mesoscale convective vortices moving east over the Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians, mostly on the cool side of a cold front. That is leftover organization from Sunday night, not a new watch. Local storm reports on the SPC day that closed at 12 UTC Monday include no tornadoes. The hail corridor was eastern Colorado: golf-ball to baseball-size stones around Holyoke, Alvin, Genoa, Boyero, Wild Horse, Kit Carson, Eads, and south of Brandon in Phillips, Yuma, Lincoln, Cheyenne, and Kiowa counties. One social-media measurement near Brandon was 3.10 inches. A spotter windshield was damaged near Wild Horse. A separate 2.00-inch hail report came from Liberty in Union County, Indiana.

Wind reports overnight were the restoration ticket east of the High Plains. Trees and lines came down across Christian, Greene, Jasper, and Lawrence counties in southwest Missouri, including a tree on a house in Pierce City. Illinois reports included a shed roof in Jasper County, 64 mph at Olney-Noble Airport, and power-line damage near Witt, Ramsey, and Noble. Southwestern Ohio logged trees in Kettering, Bellbrook, and Greene County after midnight. After 3 UTC, NWS Charleston territory picked up trees and blocked roads in Vinton and Meigs counties, Ohio, and in Wirt, Calhoun, and Gilmer counties, West Virginia, including more than 1,200 customers without power along Highway 7 north-northeast of Syracuse. Separate tree-down reports ran through Anderson and Laurens counties in South Carolina, Walton County, Georgia, and a string of Alabama, Georgia, and Florida Panhandle counties from Taylor and Iron City to De Funiak Springs and I-10 mile marker 70.

Flash flood warning posts already on this desk overnight covered pieces of Muskingum, Washington, Morgan, and Gallia counties in Ohio and Braxton plus north-central West Virginia. Those warnings were timed to expire in the early morning hours. Treat them as just-hit water, not a new outlook. Confirm county status on weather.gov before you treat a warning as still live.

What is live this morning

No SPC watches are valid as of 1136 UTC Monday. The Day 1 outlook valid 1300 UTC Monday through 1200 UTC Tuesday is Marginal only. The front this afternoon is forecast from northern Mississippi northeast to western Virginia. Dewpoints ahead of it run upper 60s to lower 70s from the lower Mississippi Valley into West Virginia. SPC expects scattered to numerous single-cell and multicell storms after peak heating, with the better flow on the northern edge of the risk — Kentucky, West Virginia, and Virginia. Stronger downdrafts can produce 50 to 60 mph gusts and pockets of wind damage before cells weaken in the early evening.

The Texas South Plains Marginal is a separate, isolated pulse. A front and residual outflow drape the Caprock this afternoon. Guidance supports scattered storms in a moist plume during peak heating, with a couple of stronger cells capable of large hail and severe gusts before they die in the evening.

The Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook page still carried Sunday’s discussion into the 12 UTC Monday valid end, with Slight Risk language over portions of the Midwest and Ohio Valley plus the northern High Plains from the prior period. That is the moisture that already produced last night’s Ohio–West Virginia flood warnings. Use the live WPC graphic and local NWS flash-flood products for today’s water overlay rather than treating Sunday’s Slight as a new box.

Hotspot 1 — Kentucky, West Virginia, Virginia, and the central Appalachians

This is the northern edge of today’s Marginal Risk and the part of the front with slightly stronger flow. Cities and counties to watch: Lexington and eastern Kentucky; Charleston, Huntington, Parkersburg, and the central West Virginia counties that already took trees overnight; western and northern Virginia including the Shenandoah and the Richmond-to-Charlottesville fringe of the outlook line. SPC maps the Marginal from near Greenville, Mississippi, northeast through Kentucky to near Parkersburg, then east toward Elkins, Charlottesville, and Richmond before dropping south through Raleigh and Athens toward Montgomery and Jackson.

Restoration read: wind first, water second. Last night already put trees on roads and lines in Meigs, Wirt, Calhoun, and Gilmer. Another round of 50–60 mph gusts this afternoon is more of the same — roof, siding, service drops — not a regional derecho. If a cell trains on ground that flooded overnight, treat that ZIP as a water job by evening.

Hotspot 2 — Southeast ahead of the front

The same Marginal Risk covers central Mississippi, Alabama, northern Georgia, and the western Carolinas. Instability can peak in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range from central Mississippi into western North Carolina, but deep-layer shear is weak. Mode is single cells and disorganized multicells. Sunday evening already produced trees in Anderson and Laurens, South Carolina; Monroe and Walton, Georgia; and the Florida–Alabama line. Today is a repeat isolated-wind desk, not a watch.

Restoration read: stage locally if your county is on the warm side of the front. Do not move a regional crew on a Marginal that SPC itself frames as isolated 50–60 mph gusts.

Hotspot 3 — Texas South Plains, plus leftover High Plains hail

The second Marginal sits from near Clovis and Hobbs across the Caprock toward Childress and Big Spring. Isolated large hail and severe gusts later today are the threat. That is not last night’s Colorado supercell corridor. Last night’s work is already on the books in Cheyenne, Kiowa, Lincoln, Yuma, and Phillips counties — baseball hail, damaged glass, and agricultural hits. Do not send the same crew to Lubbock this afternoon and Eads this morning without checking which county actually has a warning now.

Just hit

Sunday afternoon’s High Plains Slight Risk and Watch 674 are closed. The verified story there is large hail, not a tornado. Southwest Missouri trees, Illinois wind, Ohio–West Virginia overnight trees and flash-flood warnings, and scattered Southeast wind reports are the other closed tickets. Tropical Storm Fay is not a U.S. land story.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS level	Status this morning
KY / WV / VA / central Appalachians	Isolated damaging wind 50–60 mph, lightning	SPC Marginal	Afternoon pulse; no watch
MS / AL / GA / western Carolinas	Isolated wind, wet microbursts	SPC Marginal	Diurnal; no watch
Texas South Plains / Caprock	Isolated large hail, severe gusts	SPC Marginal	Late afternoon–evening
Eastern Colorado High Plains	Baseball hail, glass, crop	Watch 674 expired	Just-hit / aftermath
SW Missouri / Illinois / SW Ohio	Trees, lines, isolated structural	LSRs overnight	Just-hit
SE Ohio / north-central WV	Trees, flash flood leftover	Overnight FFWs expired or expiring	Aftermath / check county
Atlantic vs. U.S. mainland	Fay near the Azores; no U.S. formation	NHC TWO	Quiet on the mainland

What this means for restoration teams

Fifty to sixty miles an hour is roof, siding, gutter, and tree-on-structure work. Last night’s Colorado hail is a glass and roof-inspection desk in a handful of High Plains counties, not a regional CAT. Ohio and West Virginia water from overnight flash-flood warnings is extraction and a 24–48 hour mold clock where water entered. Do not staff today’s Marginal as if Watch 674 were still up.

Property owners should photograph damage in daylight if it is safe, call the carrier, and start extraction the same day if water is inside. Turn around, don’t drown on leftover high water in southeast Ohio and north-central West Virginia.

What this is not

This is not a Slight Risk day, not a live watch, and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. The work today, if it verifies, will be scattered: a wind swath through a Kentucky or West Virginia county, a hailer on the Caprock, leftover trees from Sunday night. That is the local-storm pattern this desk should staff.

Looking ahead

The next Day 1 outlook is scheduled by 1630 UTC. SPC Day 2 is also Marginal. Day 3 is currently no severe thunderstorms. Watch the afternoon Storm Tracker update rather than assuming this morning’s Marginal is the last line of the week.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center Sep 21, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook (Smith/Mead, 0733 AM CDT); SPC current watches page updated 1136 UTC Monday with no valid watches and most recently issued Watch 674; SPC preliminary local storm reports for 20260920 1200 UTC through 20260921 1159 UTC; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook page; National Hurricane Center Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook 800 AM EDT Monday; National Weather Service warning text already logged on this desk for southeast Ohio and north-central West Virginia.

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watch, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay. Prior desk: Sunday, September 20 storm updates — Oklahoma and High Plains Slight Risk.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

September 21, 2026

Storm Updates: Carolinas–Georgia + Iowa Marginal, Upper Mississippi Flood Slight — Friday, September 18, 2026 (Morning)

This is a live Friday morning snapshot of U.S. local-storm activity as of early Friday, September 18, 2026. Overnight convection dumped tennis-ball hail on Bingham County, Idaho, knocked power lines down near Lewisville, and forced National Weather Service flash-flood warnings for the Idaho Falls and Rexburg areas that expired before dawn. The Storm Prediction Center 1300 UTC Day 1 outlook holds a Marginal Risk of isolated severe thunderstorms from the Carolinas into northern Georgia, across Iowa, over parts of the central High Plains, and again in the Intermountain West. No convective watches are valid. The Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook holds Slight Risks over the Upper Mississippi Valley and southwest Montana. There is no named tropical cyclone threatening U.S. land.

These are county- and ZIP-scale thunderstorms and flash-flood pulses, not a mainland hurricane landfall. Restoration exposure today is leftover hail and interior water in eastern Idaho, isolated damaging gusts on the Carolina Piedmont and in Iowa this afternoon, and training rain from southern Minnesota into Wisconsin tonight. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What is live this morning

SPC issued the 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook at 0719 AM CDT. Valid 181300Z–191200Z. Headline: an isolated severe risk later today into the evening for the Carolinas into northern Georgia, Iowa, parts of the central High Plains, and parts of the Intermountain West. Categorical risk is Marginal over about 171,000 square miles and roughly 21 million people. Wind is the shared 5 percent contour. A 2 percent tornado contour sits over north-central Iowa (Ames, Ankeny, Mason City, Fort Dodge, Marshalltown). A 5 percent hail contour remains over the Salt Lake City–Provo corridor.

No Severe Thunderstorm Watch or Tornado Watch is in effect. The most recently issued watch on the SPC board is Watch 669, already expired. Today’s 1200 UTC–onward local storm report page is empty as of this desk: no tornado, hail, or wind reports on the new cycle yet. Last night’s work is on the September 17 cycle.

WPC’s 1034 UTC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, valid 12Z Friday through 12Z Saturday, holds a Slight Risk of rainfall exceeding flash-flood guidance over the Upper Mississippi Valley (southern Minnesota into Wisconsin and adjacent Iowa/Illinois) and a separate Slight over southwest Montana. Marginal flood pockets cover leftover Southwest terrain, the northern High Plains, South Florida and the Keys, a Midwest/Great Lakes corridor, and the Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians. Guidance still supports 2 to 4 inches in the better Upper Midwest swath.

The National Hurricane Center 800 AM EDT Atlantic outlook and companion eastern and central Pacific outlooks list no tropical cyclones. That sentence stays off the restoration board unless NHC names something that threatens U.S. land.

Overnight into this morning

Thursday’s SPC report cycle (1200 UTC September 17 through 1159 UTC September 18) is the just-hit file. One brief tornado was reported 11 miles north-northeast of Chappell in Garden County, Nebraska, around 0034 UTC. Hail clustered on eastern Idaho: 1.00 to 1.75 inches around Blackfoot, Shelley, Firth, Moreland, and Menan; 2.50 inches (tennis ball) one mile north-northeast of Rose in Bingham County; 1.25 inches at Gannett in Blaine County; 1.00 inch east of Alton in Bear Lake County. Utah added 1.50 inches at Midway in Wasatch County. Nebraska High Plains added 1.50 inches east-southeast of Broadwater. Missouri picked up 1.00 inch near Saint Paul in St. Charles County.

Wind: power lines down in Lewisville, Jefferson County, Idaho; 61 mph at the INL rover south-southwest of Mud Lake; trees and shingles near Saint Paul, Missouri; a 59 mph gust at Truth or Consequences, New Mexico; trees down in Tippecanoe and Carroll counties, Indiana; a large tree on Yalta Drive in Beavercreek, Ohio; several large trees in Ashland, Kentucky, with one person injured and transported when a tree fell. Overnight flash-flood warnings for the Idaho Falls area (until 2:00 AM MDT) and the Rexburg area (until 2:45 AM MDT) have expired. Those were water jobs on eastern Idaho drainages after the same hail cores, not a new watch this morning.

Hotspot 1 — Carolinas into northern Georgia

A cluster of weak thunderstorms this morning over Kentucky and West Virginia rides south on northerly flow around a mid-level high over the Ark-La-Tex. SPC expects rejuvenation near convective outflow along the Virginia–North Carolina border, then scattered storms over the Piedmont into northern Georgia as the boundary layer heats. Isolated 50–60 mph gusts are the advertised threat. Cities inside the Marginal contour include Charlotte, Raleigh, Greensboro, and Atlanta.

Restoration read: wind first, not a tornado outbreak. Stage tarps and tree crews for late afternoon into evening. Photograph roofs in remaining daylight only if it is safe. This is a scatter of cores, not a watch-boxed line.

Hotspot 2 — Iowa and the Upper Mississippi Valley

A front lies from the lower Ohio Valley west into the mid Missouri Valley, with a weak surface low over western Nebraska. Lower-70s dewpoints sit south of the boundary. SPC favors thunderstorms over Iowa into far southern Minnesota where heating and low-level forcing erode inhibition. Primary hazard is marginally severe gusts. Enlarged hodographs near the warm front leave a localized chance of a couple of weak, short-lived supercells — that is the 2 percent tornado contour, not a Slight Risk upgrade. Upscale growth late evening would drift toward the southwest Great Lakes and lose buoyancy.

WPC’s Slight Risk is the organized water ticket. A disturbance tracking out of the Dakotas across southern Minnesota into Wisconsin can support 2–4 inches where the low-level jet blossoms the rain shield. That is wet drywall and a 24–48 hour mold clock in the better swaths, not a river-flood headline yet.

Restoration read: Iowa wind this afternoon, Minnesota–Wisconsin water tonight. Do not staff both with the same crew without checking which county has a warning now.

Hotspot 3 — Intermountain West and central High Plains

A mid-level trough crosses the Intermountain West. Dewpoints in the 50s from northern Utah into western Wyoming valleys, MLCAPE 1000–1200 J/kg, and moderate shear support isolated severe gusts and hail again late afternoon and evening — the same corridor that just put tennis-ball hail on Bingham County. On the High Plains, a vorticity maximum over New Mexico may help isolated storms grow into a small eastward cluster over eastern Colorado into southwest Nebraska and northwest Kansas, with isolated severe gusts on outflow.

Southwest Montana sits under WPC’s second Slight Risk after Thursday’s cell behavior and ensemble 2-inch QPF. Rates can still beat flash-flood guidance even if storms stay progressive. Residual Marginal flood language covers New Mexico and Arizona terrain for one more diurnal cycle.

Just hit

Eastern Idaho hail, the expired Idaho Falls and Rexburg flash-flood warnings, the Garden County brief tornado, and the Ashland, Kentucky tree injury are yesterday’s tickets. Thursday afternoon’s Storm Tracker already carried the Idaho–Utah Marginal and Dakotas flood Slight on the prior Day 1 package. This morning desk moves the live outlook east onto the Carolinas and Iowa and slides the flood Slight onto the Upper Mississippi Valley and southwest Montana.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS / WPC level	Status this morning
Carolinas / northern GA	Isolated 50–60 mph gusts	SPC Marginal	Afternoon–evening cells
Iowa / southern MN	Gusts; localized brief tornado	SPC Marginal; 2% tornado	Afternoon into evening
Southern MN / WI / adjacent IA–IL	Flash flood, 2–4″ swaths	WPC Slight	Today’s organized water ticket
Northern UT / ID / WY valleys	Isolated hail and severe gusts	SPC Marginal (5% hail UT)	Late afternoon–evening
E CO / SW NE / NW KS	Isolated severe gusts	SPC Marginal	Evening cluster possible
Southwest Montana	Flash flood on progressive cells	WPC Slight	Afternoon–evening
Bingham / Jefferson / Madison ID	Hail, wires, expired FFWs	Aftermath	Just-hit desk
Atlantic / Gulf vs. U.S. mainland	No landfalling cyclone	NHC quiet	Quiet

What this means for restoration teams

Idaho hail is already on cars, windows, and roofs in Bingham County. That is same-day emergency board-up and a multi-day supplement fight, not a forecast. Carolina and Iowa wind at 50–60 mph is roof, siding, gutter, and tree-on-structure work if cores verify. Upper Mississippi Valley rain is extraction and drying if 2–4 inch swaths land on saturated ground. A 2 percent tornado contour is a narrow, short-lived threat — staff it as a local damage survey if a warning verifies, not as a regional event.

For teams near Charlotte, Raleigh, Atlanta, Des Moines, Ames, or the Salt Lake valley: stage before peak heating, not after the first warning. Property owners should photograph damage in daylight if it is safe, call the carrier, and start extraction the same night if water is inside.

What this is not

This is not a Slight Risk convective day, not a live watch, and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. The work today, if it comes, will be scattered: a wind-damaged street on the Piedmont, a brief spin-up near an Iowa warm front, another hail core in a Utah or Idaho valley, a flooded underpass in southern Minnesota or Wisconsin. That is the local-storm pattern this desk should staff.

Looking ahead

Saturday’s Day 2 outlook is already a Slight Risk of scattered severe wind and hail over portions of the central Plains, with isolated severe storms possible from the High Plains and central Rockies into the Midwest and Southeast. Sunday is Marginal. Day 4–8 has no 15 percent areas. Watch the afternoon Storm Tracker for the 1630 UTC Day 1 update rather than assuming this morning’s Marginal is the last line of the weekend.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center Sep 18, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook (Smith/Mead); SPC current watches page (none valid; last watch 669); SPC local storm reports for 20260917 and 20260918; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook issued 1034 UTC Friday; National Hurricane Center 800 AM EDT Friday Tropical Weather Outlook; National Weather Service Pocatello flash-flood warning text for Idaho Falls and Rexburg, now expired.

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watch, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay. Prior desk: Thursday afternoon Storm Updates: Idaho–Utah Marginal, Dakotas Flood Slight. Related overnight posts: Idaho Falls flash-flood warning and Rexburg flash-flood warning.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

September 18, 2026