The Storm Prediction Center has an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms across western New York this afternoon and evening, with a Slight Risk over parts of Montana. Official Local Storm Reports already show 2.00″ hail in Michigan, 83 mph gusts at Great Falls, and a long tree-and-wire damage swath from western New York through Pennsylvania into Maryland and Virginia.
This is a live snapshot for Wednesday, September 2, 2026, built from NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center products and preliminary LSRs. Conditions change fast — always verify with the National Weather Service for your county.
Current hotspots
Western New York — Enhanced Risk (damaging wind primary)
SPC’s 2000 UTC Day 1 outlook expanded the Enhanced Risk slightly east across western New York, with 45% wind probabilities. Storms are expected along and ahead of a cold front from southeast Lower Michigan into the lower Great Lakes, with 50+ kt of deep-layer shear supporting a mix of supercells and clusters. Damaging winds are the main threat. Large hail and a few tornadoes are also in the outlook, including some chance of a stronger tornado if a supercell mode holds this evening.
Already reported:
- Trees down in Oakfield, Elba, Batavia, Leicester, Livonia, and Wolcott, NY.
- Several hundred power outages in and around Batavia from tree limbs and line damage.
- Additional trees and wires down later in Wyoming County (Castile / Portageville).
Montana / northern Rockies — Slight Risk (severe gusts)
High-based storms moving northeast across Montana have already produced hurricane-force gusts. SPC flagged occasional 75+ mph gusts even with weaker instability.
Measured gusts (preliminary LSRs):
- 83 mph — Great Falls Airport (KGTF), Cascade County, MT
- 80 mph — Warm Springs, Deer Lodge County, MT
- 80 mph — Highwood Bench, Chouteau County, MT
- 77 mph — south-southwest of Choteau, Teton County, MT
- 74 mph — Bert Mooney Airport, Silver Bow County, MT
- 73 mph — Helena and 11 W Helena, Lewis and Clark County, MT
- 71 mph — Helena Airport and west of Bynum
Great Lakes to Mid-Atlantic — wind, hail, and tree damage
An earlier cluster with a well-established cold pool produced damaging winds across western and central Pennsylvania and continued southeast into Maryland, D.C., and northern Virginia. Behind that, a second round is the western New York / Lower Michigan threat.
Notable hail:
- 2.00″ hail — Birch Run, Saginaw County, MI (multiple spotter/public reports with photos)
- 1.25″ hail — 3 E Meadville, Crawford County, PA
- 1.00″ hail — north of Cochranton, Crawford County, PA
Wind damage corridor (trees, wires, road closures): Warren, Forest, Crawford, Jefferson, Elk, Clearfield, Huntingdon, Blair, Perry, Juniata, Cumberland, York, and Lancaster counties in Pennsylvania; Baltimore, Frederick, Washington, Montgomery, and Caroline counties in Maryland; Loudoun, Alexandria, Rappahannock, Culpeper, King George, Orange, Madison, Clarke, Buckingham, and Dinwiddie counties in Virginia. One tree fell on a residence in Harmonsburg, Crawford County, PA. In Ceresco, Saunders County, NE, branches hit houses and windows were blown out of a business.
Texas — isolated landspout
A landspout was reported 3 ENE of Serenada in Williamson County, TX (north of Georgetown, between SH 195 and I-35), associated with a weak shower. Preliminary — not a confirmed tornado path.
What this means for restoration operators
- Saginaw County, MI (Birch Run): 2.00″ hail is hen-egg size — enough to puncture asphalt shingles, bruise commercial TPO/EPDM, and collapse rooftop HVAC condenser fins. Photo the roof and RTUs before the next rain cycle.
- Western NY / Lower MI: Stage for wind, tree, and power-line losses plus possible hail. Commercial roofs and storefront glazing along the Enhanced Risk corridor are the first walk.
- PA–MD–VA swath: This is a tree/wire/water day. Wind-driven rain through failed envelope, wet interiors, and delayed drying if power is out. Treat overland flash-flood water as Category 3 until you prove otherwise.
- Montana (Great Falls / Helena / Choteau corridor): 70–83 mph gusts are hurricane-force. Expect loose membrane, HVAC displacement, metal cladding, and broken glass on commercial buildings even without large hail.
Sources
- SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook — 2000 UTC, Sep 2, 2026
- SPC Local Storm Reports — Sep 2, 2026 (preliminary, unfiltered)
- National Weather Service — county-level warnings and statements
This is a public-data summary for restoration professionals’ situational awareness only. It is not an official forecast. Always verify with the National Weather Service, local NWS offices, and official watches/warnings. Preliminary storm reports can change. Do not make operational decisions solely on this brief.
Related on Tygart Media: Aug 29 storm alerts · Starlink on a water job. Full Daily Storm Pulse archive lives on Restoration Intel — Storm Damage.