Tag: Montana storms

  • Storm Updates: New Mexico Flood Moderate, Western Dakotas Marginal — Wednesday, September 23, 2026

    This is a live Wednesday afternoon snapshot of U.S. local-storm activity as of Wednesday, September 23, 2026. The organized desk is still water, not wind. The Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook holds a Moderate Risk across portions of central and eastern New Mexico. The Storm Prediction Center 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook (issued 2:58 p.m. CDT; Halbert/Lyons; valid 232000Z–241200Z) trims the severe overlay to a Marginal Risk across parts of the western Dakotas only. The southern Appalachians Marginal from the morning 1300 UTC package is off the 2000 UTC map. No convective watches are currently valid. No mesoscale discussions are in effect.

    These are county- and ZIP-scale flood and isolated hail/wind pulses, not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. Restoration exposure this afternoon into tonight is water first in New Mexico and far west Texas (training storms, burn-scar runoff, arroyos), leftover wet soils from Ohio through the southern Appalachians, and isolated damaging gusts or marginally severe to locally 2-inch hail if the western Dakotas cells organize. Separately, Tropical Storm Nolo now carries a Hurricane Watch for Hawaii County — not a CONUS landfall, and not the Restoration Intel CAT desk. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

    What is live this afternoon

    SPC’s 2000 UTC update says the western Dakotas forecast remains largely on track. Isolated damaging wind gusts and severe hail are possible late this afternoon where moisture pooling has put upper-50s to low-60s °F dewpoints under clearing skies. Moderate deep-layer shear and modest buoyancy (500–1,000 J/kg MLCAPE; 30–40 kt 0–6 km shear) can support organized storms and transient supercells. A CIG 1 contour was added for isolated 2-inch hail with any stronger supercell. Population centers named in the Marginal contour: Dickinson, North Dakota; Belle Fourche, South Dakota; Sidney, Montana. Tornado probabilities remain zero. No watches as of the SPC watches page update at 21:00:23 UTC Wednesday, September 23, 2026. Most recent watch on the board: 0674.

    Southern Appalachians: the 2000 UTC outlook removed the 5% wind probabilities. Widespread low stratus, modest buoyancy, and a mostly cluster/multicell mode keep the severe potential low even as lightning continues in eastern Tennessee along the inverted trough.

    WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 0832 UTC Wednesday, September 23, 2026; Chenard; valid 12Z Wed–12Z Thu) still owns the national headline: Moderate Risk across portions of central and eastern New Mexico. Scattered to numerous flash floods expected; locally significant and life-threatening impacts remain possible on sensitive terrain, urban drainage, and burn scars. Widespread 1–2 inches generally expected, localized 2–4 inch swaths on top of pre-12Z rain. HREF/REFS neighborhood probabilities of more than 3 inches run 40–70% on the eastern half of the Moderate area. Slight Risk into southeast Arizona and a slice of far west Texas. Separate flood desks: Slight over portions of eastern Kentucky, eastern Tennessee, and far western North Carolina; Marginal from Ohio into West Virginia and western Virginia/North Carolina; Marginal over south Florida.

    Live NWS flood products this morning into midday included a flash-flood warning from NWS Albuquerque for the South Fork burn scar in south-central Lincoln County (issued 9:08 a.m. MDT, through 12:15 p.m. MDT; 0.5–1.25 inches already down; Brady, Bear, Perk, Cedar Creek, Eagle Creek, and Rio Ruidoso drainages). Flood watches remain in effect through this evening / late tonight across much of central and eastern New Mexico and south-central New Mexico including the Tularosa Basin / Alamogordo / Doña Ana corridor (NWS Albuquerque and NWS El Paso/Santa Teresa).

    Hotspot 1 — Central and eastern New Mexico / far west Texas

    Still the organized desk. Mid-level shortwave lifting north-northeast across New Mexico, robust upper divergence, easterly upslope, and training cells in deep southerly flow. Cloud cover is the limiter; the eastern edge of the rain shield is where heating and CAPE can still fire the heavier cores. Burn scars and arroyos fail first. The South Fork burn scar warning this morning is the restoration ticket type: debris flow of rock, mud, and vegetation into reservoirs, bridges, culverts, and the Rio Ruidoso downstream of Ruidoso Downs.

    Restoration read: water first. Stage pumps and air movers before the next training band. Start extraction the same night if water is inside. Do not drive flooded arroyos. Turn around, don’t drown.

    Hotspot 2 — Western Dakotas / Black Hills

    The only remaining SPC Marginal as of 2000 UTC. Lee trough and moisture plume from the High Plains; widely scattered storms near the Black Hills and the Dickinson–Belle Fourche–Sidney corridor late afternoon into early evening. Isolated damaging gusts and severe hail, with a conditional isolated 2-inch hail note if a transient supercell holds together. No tornado contour. No watch.

    Restoration read: isolated wind and hail, not a regional outbreak. Stage only if you already work western North Dakota, western South Dakota, or far eastern Montana. Do not pull crews off the New Mexico water desk for this.

    Hotspot 3 — Eastern Tennessee / southern Appalachians flood leftover + Tropical Storm Nolo (Hawaii County)

    SPC took the Marginal off this corridor at 2000 UTC. The flood overlay is still live: WPC Slight over eastern Kentucky, eastern Tennessee, and far western North Carolina; WPC Marginal from Ohio into West Virginia and western Virginia/North Carolina. Wet soils from the last several days keep flash-flood guidance low even with reduced precipitable water. Lightning and modest CAPE along the inverted trough can still produce locally heavy cells. That is a water job, not a tarp outbreak.

    Separately, Central Pacific Hurricane Center / NHC Advisory 13 at 11:00 a.m. HST Wednesday, September 23, 2026: Tropical Storm Nolo, 14.5°N 155.3°W, about 310 miles south of South Point, Hawaii, 40 mph sustained, moving west-northwest at 6 mph. A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Hawaii County. Forecast: approach the Big Island Friday and Saturday; possible hurricane Thursday and possible major hurricane by the weekend. Rainfall: 15–20 inches on the Big Island with maxima near 35 inches; 5–10 inches on Maui with maxima near 20 inches. Storm surge 1–3 feet possible in Hawaii County. This is a Hawaii land threat on Friday–Saturday, not a CONUS landfall today. Polo and Odalys remain eastern Pacific systems off Mexico / well west of Baja.

    Restoration read: Appalachians = leftover plus second-chance street and creek water. Hawaii County = watch the NHC package Friday; do not invent a mainland hurricane from Nolo.

    Just hit

    SPC local storm reports for the current 23/1200 UTC–24/1159 UTC window, as of this afternoon check: no tornado, no hail, no wind reports received yet. Do not invent LSR points for today.

    The prior 22/1200 UTC–23/1159 UTC window still holds the last 24-hour ticket pile: quarter-size hail near Sterlington, Louisiana; Suncrest, Utah; and south of Colorado Springs. Wind damage across Lauderdale, Cherokee, DeKalb, St. Clair, and Shelby counties in Alabama (trees, lines, a pole on a vehicle, roof and tree damage in Montevallo). Odessa, Texas, lines and outbuilding/carport damage. Measured 59 mph near Rawlins, Wyoming. Measured 68 and 74 mph southwest of Sundown in Cochran County, Texas. Overnight into this morning the flood desk already logged El Paso County, central Virginia (Amelia / Powhatan), and a receding western North Carolina pulse around Lake Lure / Bat Cave, plus today’s South Fork burn-scar warning in Lincoln County, New Mexico.

    Pulse table

    RegionMain threatsSPC / WPC / NWS levelStatus this afternoon
    Central / eastern NM and far west TXFlash flood, training storms, burn-scar runoffWPC Moderate + NWS flood watches / FFWLive flood desk through Thu 12Z
    Western Dakotas / Black HillsIsolated hail / damaging gusts; conditional 2″ hailSPC MarginalLate afternoon–early evening
    Southeast AZLocalized flash floodWPC SlightToday
    Eastern KY / eastern TN / far western NCFlash flood on wet soilsWPC Slight; SPC Marginal removed at 2000ZAfternoon–evening water
    OH into WV / western VA–NCLocalized flash floodWPC MarginalToday
    South FloridaUrban flash floodWPC MarginalLocal
    Hawaii CountyTS Nolo; hurricane conditions possible late FridayNHC Hurricane WatchWatch now; land threat Fri–Sat
    U.S. mainland tropicsNo CONUS landfalling named cycloneNHCQuiet for CONUS land

    What this means for restoration teams

    New Mexico remains the water job if the Moderate risk verifies — extraction, drying, and a 24–48 hour mold clock, plus debris-flow cleanup on burn scars. Far west Texas is the eastward leak of the same plume. The Dakotas Marginal is isolated hail and wind for shops that already cover Dickinson, the Black Hills, and Sidney. The Appalachians are leftover water, not a new severe overlay. Hawaii County is a Friday–Saturday NHC problem, not today’s CONUS roll. Stage the New Mexico pumps now. Start extraction the same night if water is inside. Turn around, don’t drown.

    What this is not

    This is not a regional derecho and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. There is no Slight or Enhanced convective risk on the 2000 UTC Day 1 map. There are no valid convective watches. Do not write Nolo as a Gulf or Atlantic landfall; it is a Central Pacific storm with a Hurricane Watch for Hawaii County and a forecast approach to the Big Island on Friday and Saturday. Hurricane Polo (eastern Pacific, off southwest Mexico) and Hurricane Odalys (well west of Baja) are not CONUS land threats today. Today’s CONUS work, if it verifies, is New Mexico flash flood plus isolated western Dakotas hail/wind.

    Looking ahead

    SPC Day 2 Convective Outlook for Thursday (issued 12:44 a.m. CDT Wednesday, September 23, 2026; Squitieri; valid 241200Z–251200Z) shows no severe thunderstorm areas. Showers and scattered storms can still run from the Interior West into the central Plains behind the same Southwest impulse, but shear and buoyancy do not overlap enough for probabilities. That does not cancel tonight’s New Mexico flood problem or this afternoon’s Dakotas Marginal. Watch the next Storm Tracker update rather than assuming the Moderate rainfall risk is the last line of the week. Nolo’s Hawaii County watch is the tropical item to re-check Thursday afternoon.

    Sources and how to verify

    Primary sources dated Wednesday, September 23, 2026: SPC 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook (Halbert/Lyons, 2:58 p.m. CDT); SPC 1630 UTC discussion (Smith/Mead); SPC watches page updated 21:00:23 UTC (no watches; last issued 0674); SPC mesoscale discussions page (none in effect); SPC today’s LSRs (none received after 1200 UTC) and 22/1200Z–23/1159Z LSRs; WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook updated 0832 UTC (Chenard); NWS Albuquerque South Fork burn-scar flash-flood warning 9:08 a.m. MDT; NWS Albuquerque and El Paso/Santa Teresa flood watches; NHC/CPHC Tropical Storm Nolo Advisory 13, 11:00 a.m. HST; SPC Day 2 outlook (Squitieri).

    Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watch, and local storm reports, WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay, and nhc.noaa.gov for Nolo. Morning desk on the same calendar day: Storm Updates September 23, 2026 (Morning) — New Mexico Flood Moderate, Dakotas–Appalachians Marginal.

    Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

  • Storm Updates: Kansas–Oklahoma Watch 670 + Midwest–Montana Flood Moderate — Saturday, September 19, 2026

    This is a live Saturday afternoon snapshot of U.S. local-storm activity as of Saturday, September 19, 2026. The organized pulse is on the Central Plains cold front. The Storm Prediction Center 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook holds a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of the central Plains and central High Plains, covering about 56,800 square miles and nearly 2 million people in the Slight contour, with Wichita, Topeka, Lawrence, St. Joseph, and Salina inside the risk area. Severe Thunderstorm Watch 670 is in effect from 3:20 p.m. until 11:00 p.m. CDT for central into northeast Kansas, western into north-central Oklahoma, and the eastern Texas Panhandle.

    These are county-scale thunderstorms and training rain, not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. Restoration exposure this afternoon and tonight is wind-driven roof and siding work, hail dents on the High Plains, trees on wires in the Southeast leftover cells, and interior water where WPC Moderate flood-risk storms stall over eastern Iowa, northern Illinois, northern Indiana, and southern Montana. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

    What is live this afternoon

    Watch 670, issued 3:20 p.m. CDT Saturday, September 19, 2026, is the live convective watch. Primary threat language is scattered damaging winds with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible, plus isolated large hail to 1.5 inches. The watch box is drawn roughly along and 65 miles either side of a line from 115 miles west-southwest of Alva, Oklahoma, to 35 miles east-southeast of Manhattan, Kansas. SPC Mesoscale Discussion 2309, issued 2:34 p.m. CDT, had already flagged northwest Oklahoma into central and northeast Kansas for watch consideration; that discussion is now overtaken by the watch itself.

    The 2000 UTC outlook summary is unchanged from mid-morning: thunderstorms with scattered severe wind gusts and large hail are possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the central Plains. A Marginal Risk still wraps Indianapolis, Columbus, Denver, Kansas City, and Atlanta. Ohio Valley convection has struggled to stay organized along a surging outflow boundary from north of Columbus into southern Illinois and Indiana; SPC trimmed the northern edge of the Marginal there after temperatures behind the outflow fell into the upper 70s.

    The Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, updated 1602 UTC Saturday, September 19, 2026, holds a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall in portions of the Midwest — particularly eastern Iowa, northern Illinois, and northern Indiana — and a second Moderate Risk over portions of southern Montana. Guidance cited by WPC includes moderate-to-high probabilities of totals exceeding 5 inches in the better Midwest cores, with some low-end probabilities of 8 inches. Day 2 outlook language eases that to a Slight Risk over parts of the Midwest and Ohio Valley on Sunday.

    Hotspot 1 — Central into northeast Kansas, western into north-central Oklahoma, eastern Texas Panhandle

    This is the live watch. A cold front is dropping south from southwest Iowa through southwest Kansas and the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles. Ahead of it the airmass is seasonably moist and, by mid-afternoon, moderately unstable. SPC expects a few short-lived supercells early, then high-based storms and line segments capable of 60 to 75 mph gusts. MD 2309 noted temperatures near 100 F from Texas into southern Kansas, dewpoints near 60 F in the eastern Texas Panhandle and mid-60s toward Wichita, and most-probable peak gusts of 65–80 mph with hail of 1.00–1.75 inches.

    Cities and counties to watch: Wichita, Topeka, Lawrence, Salina, Manhattan, and St. Joseph on the Missouri side of the Slight contour; Alva and northwest Oklahoma; the eastern Texas Panhandle. A 67 mph gust was already measured 3 miles south-southwest of Freedom in Woodward County, Oklahoma, at 2040 UTC.

    Restoration read: wind first, hail second. Stage tarps, generators, and tree crews before dark across the watch. Photograph roofs in remaining daylight only if it is safe. Treat any ZIP that also sits under training rain as a water job by morning.

    Hotspot 2 — Eastern Iowa, northern Illinois, northern Indiana flood Moderate

    This is the water desk, not the watch. WPC’s 16Z update kept a Moderate Risk of 1-to-6-hour rainfall exceeding flash-flood guidance over eastern Iowa, northern Illinois, and northern Indiana. A surface low over the middle Mississippi Valley and enhanced forcing ahead of it support intense cores and high instantaneous rates. Urban streets, low-water crossings, and small streams fail first. Sunday’s Day 2 ERO drops this corridor to Slight, so tonight into Sunday morning is the higher-end window.

    Restoration read: extraction and drying, not hail claims. If a cell trains over the same ZIP for more than an hour, treat it as an occupied-structure water job. Do not send the same crew to the Kansas watch and a Quad Cities flood call without checking which county actually has a warning now.

    Hotspot 3 — Central High Plains and southern Montana

    SPC holds the Slight Risk west into the central High Plains. Low-level easterly flow is holding upper-50s to low-60s dewpoints. A shortwave moving out of the Great Basin is expected to organize a loosely cellular band into a linear cluster, with hail early and wind later, and some indication the activity continues into western Kansas overnight. Preliminary LSRs already include 1.25-inch hail 5 miles north of Matheson in Elbert County, Colorado, at 2044 UTC, and measured gusts of 59 and 66 mph near Byers in Arapahoe County around 2003–2006 UTC.

    Separately, WPC expanded the inherited Moderate excessive-rainfall risk over southern and southeast Montana, matching HREF/RRFS probabilities of rainfall exceeding 3 inches and low-end probabilities over 5 inches. That is a High Plains flood and debris-flow desk in burn scars and small drainages, not the Kansas watch.

    Restoration read: Colorado and western Kansas are wind-and-hail tickets tonight. Southern Montana is water and mud. Do not conflate the two.

    Just hit

    SPC today’s storm reports (1200 UTC September 19 through the afternoon) show no tornadoes as of this desk. Hail: quarter-size near Rome in Floyd County, Georgia, at 1935 UTC; 1.25-inch north of Matheson, Colorado. Wind: trees and power lines down at Signal Mountain and South Pittsburg, Tennessee; trees and blocked roads in Etowah and Jackson Counties, Alabama; multiple trees down near Warm Springs and Highland Park, Georgia; 59–66 mph near Byers, Colorado; 67 mph near Freedom, Oklahoma. Those tree and wire reports are already tickets.

    A morning Storm Tracker for this calendar day is already on the site: Storm Updates: Kansas Slight Risk + Midwest–Montana Flood Moderate — Saturday, September 19, 2026 (Morning). This afternoon post is the watch-and-LSR update, not a reprint of Friday.

    Pulse table

    RegionMain threatsSPC / NWS levelStatus this afternoon
    Central / NE Kansas, W / NC Oklahoma, E Texas PanhandleDamaging wind 60–75 mph, isolated 1.5-inch hailSlight + Watch 670 to 11 p.m. CDTLive watch
    Eastern Iowa / northern Illinois / northern IndianaFlash flood, training heavy rainWPC Moderate excessive rainfallTonight into Sunday morning
    Southern / southeast MontanaFlash flood, 3–5 inch coresWPC Moderate excessive rainfallToday into tonight
    Central High Plains / NE ColoradoWind, marginally severe hailSlight / MarginalLive LSRs near Byers and Matheson
    Ohio Valley (IN / OH / IL outflow)Isolated damaging gustsMarginal, trimmed on north edgePoorly organized
    Southern Appalachians / SoutheastTrees, 50–60 mph wet microburstsMarginal / local SVRJust-hit trees in TN, AL, GA
    Atlantic vs. U.S. mainlandTD Six near the Azores; no U.S. land threatNo mainland tropical watchQuiet on the coast

    What this means for restoration teams

    Wind at 60–75 mph inside Watch 670 is roof, siding, gutter, and tree-on-structure work from Wichita through Topeka and across northwest Oklahoma. Hail to 1.5 inches is a vehicle and roof-dent ticket, not a regional catastrophe. Midwest Moderate flood risk is wet drywall and a 24–48 hour mold clock if occupied structures take water. Southern Montana is the same water problem on different terrain.

    For teams in or near Watch 670: stage before 5 p.m. CDT, not after the first warning. Property owners should photograph damage in daylight if it is safe, call the carrier, and start extraction the same night if water is inside. Southeast tree jobs from this afternoon’s Alabama, Georgia, and Tennessee cells are already on the board.

    What this is not

    This is not a regional derecho and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. Tropical Depression Six is several hundred miles southwest of the Azores with 35 mph winds and no coastal watches for the United States. The work tonight, if it verifies, will be scattered: a wind swath through a Kansas or Oklahoma county, a flooded intersection where Iowa or Illinois cells train, isolated hail on the High Plains, leftover trees in the Tennessee Valley. That is the local-storm pattern this desk should staff.

    Looking ahead

    Sunday’s SPC Day 2 outlook remains a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the central High Plains and southern Plains. WPC Day 2 excessive rainfall eases the Midwest corridor to Slight. Day 3 convective risk is Marginal. Later in the week WPC language flags a wetter pattern for the Southern High Plains and Rockies, and a frontal system toward the East midweek. Watch the next Storm Tracker rather than assuming Watch 670 is the last line of the weekend.

    Sources and how to verify

    Primary sources dated Saturday, September 19, 2026: NOAA Storm Prediction Center 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook; Severe Thunderstorm Watch 670; Mesoscale Discussion 2309; SPC today’s local storm reports; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook updated 1602 UTC; National Hurricane Center advisories on Tropical Depression Six (Azores, no U.S. land threat). Morning desk on this calendar day: September 19 morning Storm Updates.

    Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watch, and LSRs, Watch 670 text, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay.

    Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

  • Storm Updates: Idaho–Utah Marginal, Dakotas Flood Slight — Thursday, September 17, 2026

    This is a live Thursday afternoon snapshot of U.S. local-storm activity as of Thursday, September 17, 2026. The Storm Prediction Center 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook holds a Marginal Risk of isolated severe wind gusts and hail this afternoon and evening over parts of Idaho and Utah and a small part of the central High Plains. No convective watches are valid. Mesoscale Discussion 2304 covers southern and central Idaho with a 20 percent chance of a watch. The Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook remains the organized ticket: Slight Risk over portions of the north-central Plains and Midwest and over the southwestern U.S. There is no named tropical cyclone in the Atlantic, eastern Pacific, or central Pacific.

    These are county- and ZIP-scale thunderstorms and flash-flood pulses, not a mainland hurricane landfall. Restoration exposure this afternoon is isolated hail and wind if cells verify over the Snake River Plain and Wasatch Front, plus water from the Wyoming Front Range across South Dakota into southwest Minnesota and leftover Southwest terrain. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

    What is live this afternoon

    SPC issued the 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook at 0247 PM CDT, valid 172000Z–181200Z. Forecasters Chalmers and Weinman made no changes from the midday package. Headline: thunderstorms with isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be possible over parts of the Intermountain West this afternoon and evening. A few strong to severe gusts may also occur across portions of the central High Plains. Risk-area population centers listed by SPC include Salt Lake City, West Valley City, Provo, West Jordan, and Orem. Categorical risk is Marginal only. No Slight Risk. No tornado probabilities in the 2000 UTC package. The Ohio Valley Marginal from Wednesday remains off the map.

    Current convective watches: none. SPC watch page last updated 2059 UTC Thursday: no watches currently valid. Most recently issued watch remains Severe Thunderstorm Watch 669, already expired. Do not treat 669 as a live product.

    MCD 2304, issued 0246 PM CDT and valid 1946Z–2215Z, covers parts of southern and central Idaho. Concerning: severe potential, watch unlikely. Probability of watch issuance: 20 percent. Summary: the risk of a few severe storms capable of producing large hail and severe wind gusts will increase through the remainder of the afternoon. Most probable peak wind gust 55–70 mph. Most probable peak hail size 1.00–1.75 inches. Offices tagged: Pocatello, Missoula, Boise. By late afternoon the live MD list showed no mesoscale discussions currently in effect; treat 2304 as the latest issued discussion, not a standing watch.

    WPC Day 1 excessive-rainfall language valid 12Z Thursday through 12Z Friday still has two Slight Risk corridors. One is a high-end Slight across much of South Dakota, expanding toward Sioux Falls and into southwestern Minnesota and northwest Iowa, and west-southwest to the Cheyenne, Wyoming region east of the Laramie Range. The other holds Slight Risk over New Mexico and eastern Arizona into the San Juans and western Colorado, with Marginal coverage into the Salt Lake corridor and southeastern Idaho. Wednesday’s Moderate Risk over southern and central Arizona is aftermath, not a live upgrade.

    Hotspot 1 — Southern and central Idaho into northern Utah

    Morning water vapor showed an upper low over northern California with a band of strong flow aloft and embedded shortwave troughs across Nevada into Utah and Idaho. Strong heating was expected to aid scattered thunderstorms from southern Idaho into northern Utah by mid-afternoon. Sufficient vertical shear is present for rotating updrafts capable of large hail and gusty or damaging winds. Coverage is limited. SPC still expects one or two severe cells later today, mainly over the eastern Snake River Plain. The 18Z Boise sounding in MCD 2304 sampled steep deep-layer lapse rates and an elongating, mostly straight hodograph with about 30–40 kt of cloud-layer shear. Cells first. Small clusters later if outflow organizes.

    Overnight LSRs already put quarter-size hail at Huntington in Emery County and at East Carbon and Sunnyside in Carbon County. That is the same Salt Lake City forecast office that owns this afternoon’s Utah cells.

    Restoration read: hail first if discrete cells fire over the Snake River Plain, Boise, Pocatello, or the Wasatch Front. Wind second if storms cluster. Stage roof and auto-glass survey capacity before the first warning, not after. Flash-flood risk on this corridor is Marginal to isolated, not the organized Dakotas ticket.

    Hotspot 2 — Dakotas water corridor and the High Plains wind overlay

    Remnants of a weak tropical low tracked northeast across the Four Corners this morning. Ample moisture and weak ascent support considerable clouds and scattered thunderstorms over the Colorado mountains and southern Wyoming, spreading east into eastern Colorado and western Nebraska and Kansas. High-based convection poses a risk of locally damaging wind gusts. Daytime heating is the limiter because of lingering cloud cover. That is the SPC Marginal overlay: isolated gusts, not a Slight Risk wind event.

    WPC is more organized here than SPC. A tropical-origin shortwave ejecting out of Arizona pivots through the central Rockies and into the northern Plains tonight. Precipitable-water anomalies approach the 95th–99th percentile from South Dakota into southern Minnesota by the end of the period. Discussion language includes 2–4 inches, locally higher, with HREF neighborhood probabilities of greater than 2 inches at 50–80 percent across a large High Plains swath. The centroid of greater-than-3-inch probabilities sits just east and southeast of Rapid City into Badlands National Park. The Slight Risk was expanded east toward Sioux Falls for the last 6–8 hours of the forecast.

    Restoration read: water first from the Wyoming Front Range across western and central South Dakota into southwest Minnesota and northwest Iowa tonight into Friday morning. Wind second if High Plains clusters organize. Do not send one crew to both a Cheyenne gust and a Rapid City wash without checking which county has a warning now.

    Hotspot 3 — Southwest terrain leftover plus Ohio just-hit

    The shortwave that drove Wednesday’s Arizona Moderate flood risk is leaving. WPC still keeps a Slight Risk over New Mexico and eastern Arizona into the San Juans and Sacramentos. Guidance still prints 1–3 inches on the Sangre de Cristos, San Juans, and interior New Mexico terrain. Sacramento Mountains burn-scar sensitivity remains in the discussion as locally Moderate impacts embedded inside a higher-end Slight. That is runoff on ground that already took water Wednesday, not a new Moderate upgrade.

    Ohio is off today’s SPC Marginal. It is the just-hit desk. Overnight LSRs from the 16/1200Z–17/1159Z window include multiple trees down in Versailles and Piqua, a snapped hardwood onto a home awning in Darke County, barn sheet-metal loss and a blown silo near West Alexandria in Preble County, and trees and wires southeast of Mansfield in Richland County. NWS Cleveland had severe thunderstorm warnings into mid-evening Wednesday for Richland, Ashland, Holmes, and Knox counties. Those products are expired. The trees are still on the lines.

    Just hit

    SPC preliminary storm reports for the current 17/1200Z–18/1159Z cycle show no tornado, hail, or wind reports as of this afternoon desk. That is expected. The Intermountain and High Plains threats are still an afternoon and evening problem.

    The last 24-hour ticket pile sits on the prior cycle (16/1200Z–17/1159Z): no tornadoes. Hail: 1.00 inch at Huntington, Emery County, Utah; 1.00 inch at East Carbon and Sunnyside, Carbon County, Utah; 1.00 to 1.25 inches near Linn Creek, Camden County, Missouri, with two-foot-diameter limbs down. Wind: downed power lines in Mesa, Maricopa County, Arizona; trees in Versailles, Darke County, and Piqua and Lockington, Miami County, Ohio; a snapped pole and large limb near Broken Arrow, Tulsa County, Oklahoma; a power line and a condo-garage roof near Osage Beach and Linn Creek, Missouri; barn roofing and a grain silo near West Alexandria, Preble County, Ohio; trees and wires southeast of Mansfield.

    This morning’s Storm Tracker already covered the same outlook family at 1300 UTC. This afternoon desk updates to the 2000 UTC package, adds MCD 2304, and confirms still-zero watches and still-zero LSRs on today’s cycle.

    Pulse table

    RegionMain threatsSPC / NWS / WPC levelStatus this afternoon
    Southern / central ID into northern UTIsolated hail and severe gusts; possible small clustersSPC Marginal; MCD 2304 watch unlikelyLive afternoon–evening cells
    NE CO / western NE / High PlainsIsolated severe gustsSPC MarginalLate afternoon clusters if heating punches
    WY Front Range / SD / SW MN / NW IAFlash flood, 2–4″ swathsWPC Slight (high-end over SD)Today’s organized water ticket
    NM / E AZ / San Juans / SacramentosFlash flood, burn-scar debris flowWPC Slight; leftover from Wed ModerateDiurnal terrain cells
    Western / north-central OHTrees, wires, barn and roof damageLSRs overnight; warnings expiredJust-hit
    Emery / Carbon UT; Camden MOQuarter to half-dollar hailLSRs overnightJust-hit / same offices own today’s risk
    Atlantic / Gulf vs. U.S. mainlandNo named cycloneNHC: no tropical cyclonesQuiet on the mainland coast

    What this means for restoration teams

    Isolated severe hail on the Snake River Plain and Wasatch Front is a roof and auto-glass survey ticket if cells verify over Boise, Pocatello, Salt Lake, or Provo. Isolated High Plains gusts are tree, siding, and gutter work in a thin corridor. The organized ticket today is still water from the Wyoming Front Range across South Dakota into southwest Minnesota and northwest Iowa tonight. Flash flooding on leftover Arizona–New Mexico terrain is wet drywall and a same-night extraction clock if water is inside a structure that already took rain Wednesday. Ohio trees-on-wires from last night are a separate staffing problem from this afternoon’s West.

    For teams near the Intermountain Marginal: stage before mid-afternoon local. Property owners should photograph damage in daylight if it is safe, call the carrier, and start extraction the same night if water is inside. Turn around, don’t drown on High Plains and Southwest washes.

    What this is not

    This is not a Slight Risk severe day, not a live convective watch, and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. MCD 2304 is watch-unlikely, not a watch. NHC reports no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, eastern Pacific, or central Pacific as of this afternoon. The work, if it verifies, will be scattered: a hail swath through an Idaho or Utah county, a gust cluster on the High Plains, and heavier rain over South Dakota terrain tonight.

    Looking ahead

    SPC Day 2 (Friday, 1730 UTC package) holds Marginal Risk of isolated severe storms across parts of Idaho and Utah, Nebraska and Iowa, and the Piedmont of the Carolinas into north Georgia. Population centers listed on that outlook include Charlotte, Atlanta, Omaha, Lincoln, and Greensboro. WPC’s Day 1 water corridor over the Dakotas is the bridge into the Plains Marginal. The next Storm Tracker update should re-check the 0100 UTC Day 1 outlook and any new watches rather than assuming this afternoon’s Marginal stays the last word.

    Sources and how to verify

    Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center Sep 17, 2026 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook (Chalmers/Weinman); Mesoscale Discussion 2304 (Weinman/Hart); current convective watches (none valid; last issued Watch 669); SPC preliminary storm reports for the 20260917 cycle and 20260916 cycle; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (Kleebauer); National Hurricane Center Tropical Weather Outlook, September 17, 2026; NWS warning text archive including Cleveland OH overnight products now expired.

    Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watch, MD, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay. Morning desk for this calendar day: Storm Updates: Intermountain West + High Plains Marginal, Dakotas Flood Slight — Thursday, September 17, 2026 (Morning).

    Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

  • Storm Updates: 2.00″ Hail in Michigan, 83 MPH Gusts in Montana, Enhanced Risk in Western New York — September 2, 2026

    Storm Updates: 2.00″ Hail in Michigan, 83 MPH Gusts in Montana, Enhanced Risk in Western New York — September 2, 2026

    The Storm Prediction Center has an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms across western New York this afternoon and evening, with a Slight Risk over parts of Montana. Official Local Storm Reports already show 2.00″ hail in Michigan, 83 mph gusts at Great Falls, and a long tree-and-wire damage swath from western New York through Pennsylvania into Maryland and Virginia.

    This is a live snapshot for Wednesday, September 2, 2026, built from NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center products and preliminary LSRs. Conditions change fast — always verify with the National Weather Service for your county.

    Current hotspots

    Western New York — Enhanced Risk (damaging wind primary)

    SPC’s 2000 UTC Day 1 outlook expanded the Enhanced Risk slightly east across western New York, with 45% wind probabilities. Storms are expected along and ahead of a cold front from southeast Lower Michigan into the lower Great Lakes, with 50+ kt of deep-layer shear supporting a mix of supercells and clusters. Damaging winds are the main threat. Large hail and a few tornadoes are also in the outlook, including some chance of a stronger tornado if a supercell mode holds this evening.

    Already reported:

    • Trees down in Oakfield, Elba, Batavia, Leicester, Livonia, and Wolcott, NY.
    • Several hundred power outages in and around Batavia from tree limbs and line damage.
    • Additional trees and wires down later in Wyoming County (Castile / Portageville).

    Montana / northern Rockies — Slight Risk (severe gusts)

    High-based storms moving northeast across Montana have already produced hurricane-force gusts. SPC flagged occasional 75+ mph gusts even with weaker instability.

    Measured gusts (preliminary LSRs):

    • 83 mph — Great Falls Airport (KGTF), Cascade County, MT
    • 80 mph — Warm Springs, Deer Lodge County, MT
    • 80 mph — Highwood Bench, Chouteau County, MT
    • 77 mph — south-southwest of Choteau, Teton County, MT
    • 74 mph — Bert Mooney Airport, Silver Bow County, MT
    • 73 mph — Helena and 11 W Helena, Lewis and Clark County, MT
    • 71 mph — Helena Airport and west of Bynum

    Great Lakes to Mid-Atlantic — wind, hail, and tree damage

    An earlier cluster with a well-established cold pool produced damaging winds across western and central Pennsylvania and continued southeast into Maryland, D.C., and northern Virginia. Behind that, a second round is the western New York / Lower Michigan threat.

    Notable hail:

    • 2.00″ hail — Birch Run, Saginaw County, MI (multiple spotter/public reports with photos)
    • 1.25″ hail — 3 E Meadville, Crawford County, PA
    • 1.00″ hail — north of Cochranton, Crawford County, PA

    Wind damage corridor (trees, wires, road closures): Warren, Forest, Crawford, Jefferson, Elk, Clearfield, Huntingdon, Blair, Perry, Juniata, Cumberland, York, and Lancaster counties in Pennsylvania; Baltimore, Frederick, Washington, Montgomery, and Caroline counties in Maryland; Loudoun, Alexandria, Rappahannock, Culpeper, King George, Orange, Madison, Clarke, Buckingham, and Dinwiddie counties in Virginia. One tree fell on a residence in Harmonsburg, Crawford County, PA. In Ceresco, Saunders County, NE, branches hit houses and windows were blown out of a business.

    Texas — isolated landspout

    A landspout was reported 3 ENE of Serenada in Williamson County, TX (north of Georgetown, between SH 195 and I-35), associated with a weak shower. Preliminary — not a confirmed tornado path.

    What this means for restoration operators

    • Saginaw County, MI (Birch Run): 2.00″ hail is hen-egg size — enough to puncture asphalt shingles, bruise commercial TPO/EPDM, and collapse rooftop HVAC condenser fins. Photo the roof and RTUs before the next rain cycle.
    • Western NY / Lower MI: Stage for wind, tree, and power-line losses plus possible hail. Commercial roofs and storefront glazing along the Enhanced Risk corridor are the first walk.
    • PA–MD–VA swath: This is a tree/wire/water day. Wind-driven rain through failed envelope, wet interiors, and delayed drying if power is out. Treat overland flash-flood water as Category 3 until you prove otherwise.
    • Montana (Great Falls / Helena / Choteau corridor): 70–83 mph gusts are hurricane-force. Expect loose membrane, HVAC displacement, metal cladding, and broken glass on commercial buildings even without large hail.
    Flooded residential basement with standing water and damaged belongings
    Wind-driven rain and tree damage produce interior water losses like this — saturated drywall, damaged contents, and mold risk inside 48 hours if extraction is delayed.

    Sources

    This is a public-data summary for restoration professionals’ situational awareness only. It is not an official forecast. Always verify with the National Weather Service, local NWS offices, and official watches/warnings. Preliminary storm reports can change. Do not make operational decisions solely on this brief.

    Related on Tygart Media: Aug 29 storm alerts · Starlink on a water job. Full Daily Storm Pulse archive lives on Restoration Intel — Storm Damage.